#Preseason 94 Mid
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Reebok Preseason ‘94 Mid “Big Game”
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Big weekend home and away...
The Super Bowl is the biggest tv event in the US, and one of the most watched global sporting events. That said, all eyes are on Miami and the game this weekend.
My wife just asked me who I’m routing for... and, I was just about to say the Chiefs (Mahomes is the man) until I remembered I’m subliminally linked to the 49ers through a 10% stake they have in my soccer team, Leeds United. In addition, we live in Orange County, and I guess that’s closer to SF than Kansas, so there’s a geographical loyalty too.
So, that gets me thinking more... this weekend is huge for both organizations, Leeds and 49ers. For San Francisco the spoils are obvious, their first Super Bowl since ‘94. For Leeds we need a slightly deeper dive. We take on Wigan, no big deal, but it comes on the back of our mid week win over Millwall, where we came back from 0-2 to win 3-2. It’s our first game since the transfer window closed and we bolstered the squad, and it’s an opportunity to cement our place at the top of the league as we strive for the championship, or at the very least promotion to the premier league.
Looking further down the track (maybe too far)... if Leeds gain promotion to the Premier League, what are the chances of a preseason tour to the US, to San Francisco, home of the Super Bowl champs??? A short flight from my home in OC to watch Leeds on American soil would be a dream come true.
2 historic sports organizations, both facing challenging weekends that will shape their futures. Hopefully futures that will cross path later in the summer as respective champions on US soil in NORCAL.
#lufc#49ers vs chiefs#49ers#leedsunited#leeds united#mot#san francisco#leeds#5000mileswest#5tmw#elland road#soccer#football#nfl#championship#efl
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Byron Buxton Is Teasing Twins Fans Again
The Minnesota Twins were one of the best stories of the 2017 MLB season: Coming off a 59-win campaign in 2016, they won 85 games and made the playoffs seemingly out of nowhere. Minnesota even spotted itself an early three-run lead against the Yankees in the American League wild-card game (before promptly giving it away in the bottom of the first and ultimately losing). With one of baseball’s youngest lineups, this seemed like a team on the rise, and its best all-around player — 23-year-old center fielder Byron Buxton — had a lot to do with that, putting together a breakout season of his own.
By the same token, when Buxton faltered in 2018, so did the Twins. In an injury-plagued lost season, Buxton managed just 94 plate appearances and graded as below replacement level, according to whichever metric you choose to consult. Minnesota, in turn, dipped from 85 wins to 78 and wasn’t really in the playoff picture after the All-Star break. Buxton wasn’t the only Twin to suffer a miserable 2018 decline,1 but it is fair to say his absence played as big a role in Minnesota’s downfall as anything else.
This spring, Buxton and the Twins are looking to recapture the spirit of 2017 — and the early returns are encouraging. Last week, the former No. 1 prospect in all of baseball hit what was already his fourth home run of spring training:
It’s been part of a tear that has Buxton looking like the best hitter in baseball during the spring so far. Although spring training results are easy to scoff at, they aren’t completely devoid of meaning — and that’s something the Twins will hang on to if it means there’s a chance Buxton rebounds and helps them close the gap in the AL Central.
According to my research from a few years ago, massive spring outlier performances do carry some predictive value going forward. It just takes a lot of improvement to signal real breakout potential: You need a weighted on-base average (wOBA) in the spring 17 points above projected — using the simple-yet-effective Marcel projection system — just to predict a 1-point increase in wOBA (relative to projection) during the regular season. So for most players, they’ll never hit well enough in the spring to move the needle of their season expectations very much either way.
But Buxton is hitting so well that it might actually be a much-needed sign of hope for his performance this season. When we compare players’ spring wOBA with their preseason Marcel projections, no player2 has exceeded expectations more than the Twins’ center fielder:
Buxton is tearing it up this spring
MLB players by difference in weighted on-base average (wOBA) between 2019 preseason Marcel projections and spring training performance
wOBA Player Team Age Games PA SPRING Projected Diff Byron Buxton MIN 25 11 30 .579 .297 +.282 Peter Bourjos LAA 31 12 32 .548 .285 .262 Jose Pirela SD 29 15 31 .562 .303 .258 Chance Sisco BAL 24 10 29 .560 .304 .256 Cristhian Adames CHC 27 15 36 .533 .286 .247 Lewis Brinson MIA 24 13 34 .517 .274 .243 Brandon Lowe TB 24 10 32 .560 .321 .240 Francisco Mejia SD 23 11 31 .541 .309 .232 Domingo Santana SEA 26 10 28 .575 .344 .231 Greg Allen CLE 26 10 28 .532 .302 .230
Minimum 25 spring plate appearances for players who have already made their regular-season MLB debuts. Stats are through Friday, March 15.
Source: Baseball-Reference.com
That 282-point difference in wOBA would imply a 17-point increase over projected during the regular season, good for a .314 mark when applied to Buxton’s on-base projection. That’s essentially the same wOBA Buxton had during his breakout 2017 campaign — a number that still wasn’t quite league average but was good enough to combine with his stellar defense to make him worth 4.3 wins above replacement (WAR),3 as opposed to the -0.4 number he produced last season. And for a Twins team that we currently project to win 84 games with a 37 percent chance of making the playoffs, even incremental improvements from a key player like Buxton could pay massive dividends in terms of postseason odds. My former colleague Rob Arthur estimated that, in the era of two wild cards, an 86-win team would generally increase its playoff probability by about 10 to 15 percentage points over an 84-win one. (The mid-80s win range is basically the steepest area for adding playoff odds with an extra win.)
Now, to pump the brakes a little on Buxton’s spring: 30 plate appearances is a very small sample, and most of them have come against sub-AAA quality pitchers, according to Baseball-Reference.com’s estimation. Buxton currently has a batting average on balls in play of .368, much higher than his regular-season career average of .320. His biggest action items as a hitter — plate patience and strike-zone judgment — have shown some signs of life this spring, but he’ll have to sustain them all season to convince skeptics that his skills have truly improved. And Minnesota can only hope those spring homers are merely a sign that Buxton will be an average power hitter again (like in 2017) rather than the guy who didn’t hit a single home run in 90 MLB at-bats last season.4
It really does just comes down to health and hitting for Buxton — defensively, on a per-inning basis, he was just as great last year as in 2017; he was also the fastest player in baseball. If Buxton can recapture a version of his 2017 production at the plate, it would be very good for the Twins in their quest to return to the American League Division Series for the first time since 2010. Minnesota added some impact free agents over the offseason (Marwin Gonzalez, Nelson Cruz, Blake Parker), while the division-favorite Cleveland Indians spent the winter shopping around their stars and generally resting on their laurels. Maybe the Twins are still longshots to truly knock the Indians off of their three-year perch as AL Central champs, but a healthy, star-caliber 2019 season from Buxton would make that task a lot easier.
from News About Sports https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/byron-buxton-is-teasing-twins-fans-again/
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Re-seeding the Candy 16: Kentucky not prime 10 amongst 2018 NCAA Match survivors
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Precise seed: No. 1 within the East Regional. Not a lot an argument in opposition to the 32-Four Wildcats. They’re one in all two No. 1 seeds left within the discipline. They rank as the highest crew in within the discipline in each mainstream metric. Their offensive effectivity is first in school basketball. They’ve 4 future NBA gamers, not less than, and are loaded with veterans. That is the very best crew within the sport nonetheless eligible to win the 2018 nationwide title. It additionally has the best ground of any of the 16 groups. You’ll have to beat Villanova as a result of it is not going to beat itself. It flicked away Radford after which made putty of Alabama within the first weekend. 2
Precise seed: No. 2 within the Midwest Regional. The Blue Devils (28-7) performed in Pittsburgh the primary weekend, proper there with Villanova, and appeared simply nearly as good. The Blue Devils need to be No. 2 in seed at this level. Their zone protection is paying dividends a lot as a rule. The bigs (Marvin Bagley III and Wendell Carter) are in a groove. Grayson Allen’s not enjoying persistently effectively however he’s nonetheless doing much more than what we noticed early within the season. Trevon Duval confronted a guard-heavy URI crew and had just one turnover. Rams coach Dan Hurley mentioned Duke seems to be prefer it has 5 first spherical picks. It is not as reliable as Villanova, nevertheless it’s equally as harmful. Three
Precise seed: No. 1 within the Midwest Regional. The Jayhawks obtained previous Penn, 76-60, then held off Seton Corridor, 73-69. The Penn sport was shut for 3 quarters of it. KU at No. Three is a season-long view of this crew. It is 29-7 and has crushed plenty of good golf equipment. It is nonetheless one of the crucial flawed Kansas groups of the previous 10 years, but the resume is just too good to drop KU decrease than third at this level. Devonte’ Graham is beneath Participant of the Yr consideration right here at CBS Sports activities. Malik Newman’s efficiency vs. Seton Corridor was precisely what the Jayhawks must make it to San Antonio. Udoka Azubuike combating via damage was additionally spectacular. Four
Precise seed: No. 2 within the East Regional. The Boilermakers could be third if not for the elbow problem with Isaac Haas. Purdue (30-6) stays my nationwide champion choose; I believe it is obtained the shooters to go all the way in which. Matt Painter’s crew is the No. 2 Three-point taking pictures crew and No. 2 offense in school basketball. Matt Haarms is studying on the job, although. The wavy-haired freshman performed a season-high 29 minutes vs. Purdue on Sunday. That Butler sport was shut nevertheless it by no means appeared like Purdue was in bother. Vincent Edwards is due for a giant second this Friday vs. Texas Tech, I believe. 5
Precise seed: No. Three within the East Regional. This crew is stuffed with veteran athletic expertise. And it is obtained a freshman in Zhaire Smith who is likely one of the finest dunkers within the sport. The East is clearly the strongest area at this level. Three of the highest 5 groups are enjoying in Boston this weekend. The Purple Raiders are 26-9 and have sprung again after dropping 4 of their last 5 common season video games. TTU has wins over 4 Candy 16 groups: Kansas, Kansas State, West Virginia and Nevada. It is obtained the No. Four-ranked per possession offense. Chris Beard’s guys are higher than individuals are giving them credit score for, nonetheless, and might completely head dwelling to Texas for the Closing 4. 6
Precise seed: No. Four within the West Regional. Now at 32-Four, the Bulldogs are poised to make back-to-back Closing Fours due to a West Regional that is damaged their means. To suppose, this was going to be a down 12 months for the Zags. Hardly. They’ve validated their No. 6 slot not on with the win complete and victories this season over match groups Ohio State, Texas and Creighton, but additionally as a result of their tight wins over UNC Greensboro and Ohio State introduced out why this program is sweet 12 months after 12 months. Zach Norvell Jr. had 28 in opposition to the Buckeyes — a season-high. It photographs 59 % from 2 and is not turnover-prone. The favourite in Los Angeles to get to San Antonio. 7
Precise seed: No. Three within the West Regional. If the Zags do not win the West, Michigan most likely will. The Wolverines are fortunate to be right here; they’d no enterprise profitable that sport vs. Houston on Saturday. However right here they’re. The highest-ranked protection left within the discipline is driving excessive after Jordan Poole’s tournament-saving shot. Watch it once more. That will get higher each time. When it initially occurred I did not suppose it was a top-20 buzzer beater in match historical past. I believe I’ve modified my thoughts on that. Total, Michigan’s gained 11 straight. The protection is the explanation. From a resume perspective, owns wins over match groups Texas, Michigan State, Purdue, Ohio State and UCLA. eight
Precise seed: No. 5 within the East Regional. The very fact I’ve the Mountaineers eighth has me doubting myself. WVU was a half-trendy upset choose in opposition to Murray State. It gained 85-68. Then some questioned if Marshall might loopy it up in opposition to the Mountaineers. The ultimate: 94-71. Whereas “Press Virginia” will get plenty of chatter for its protection, the reality is that this crew has been higher with the ball than with out it this season. It beat Virginia this season, one in all solely three groups to take action. It’s within the prime half of the remaining 16 groups. Senior level guard Jevon Carter is just not going out quietly. 9
Precise seed: No. 11 within the South Regional. At 30-5 with wins over Florida, Miami and Tennessee, the Ramblers are rapidly shifting from Cinderella story to bona fide Closing 4 consideration. Porter Moser’s crew ranks within the prime 15 in 2-point and Three-point discipline aim share. Clayton Custer is the proper level guard for this method. You’ll be able to’t actually phony your option to 30 wins when you come from the Missouri Valley. Sister Jean is the most important story with the Ramblers, however I believe there’s extra to return with this crew. Custer hit a winner and so did Donte Ingram. Who’s subsequent up? Junior guard Marques Townes, your quantity might be subsequent. 10
Precise seed: No. 7 within the South Regional. No crew had a nuttier opening weekend the Nevada, which did not miss a discipline aim in OT in opposition to Texas, a sport it most likely should not have gained, after which rallied from 22 right down to beat Cincinnati. The 29-7 Wolf Pack have common season wins over tourney groups Radford, Rhode Island, San Diego State and Davidson. Caleb and Cody Martin transferred from NC State and have clearly made the correct selection. Nevada’s achieved this with out level guard Lindsey Drew. Spectacular run. This was the very best crew within the Mountain West. 11
Precise seed: No. 5 within the South Regional. Suppose UK is just too low? For reference, it ranks because the 10th finest crew of the 16 left at KenPom. The 26-10 Wildcats being 11th right here speaks to how tight this discipline is between No. Four and No. 12. Kentucky obtained a scare from Davidson after which ran away from Buffalo. John Calipari’s squad has been capable of win all however one sport previously month as a result of its Three-point protection is the very best of any crew within the discipline. UK holds foes to 29.eight % taking pictures from past the arc. Common season wins over match groups: Virginia Tech, Texas A&M, West Virginia, Alabama, Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee. 12
Precise seed: No. 5 within the Midwest Regional. Tigers followers, I’ve obtained your crew this low due to the damage to Donte Grantham. By 19 video games Clemson was 16-Three. Since then it is 9-6. A good rating. However I’ll give credit score to how effectively Clemson appeared over the weekend. I believed New Mexico State would win with some consolation in opposition to the Tigers. Nah. Clemson took it 79-68. Then it destroyed — I imply, burned and buried — Auburn, 84-53. Wins over the sphere embrace Ohio State, Florida, Miami and North Carolina. 13
Precise seed: No. 7 within the West Regional. From preseason SEC favourite to mid-season letdown to probably the most spectacular crew within the first weekend of the match. Contemplating the opponents, the Aggies come out on prime for me. Now at 22-12, Billy Kennedy’s crew will face Michigan within the midst of its strongest stretch of the season. West Virginia, Buffalo, Missouri, Arkansas, Auburn, Kentucky and Alabama all fell to this crew this season. However there are 12 losses too. 14
Precise seed: No. 9 within the West Regional: Properly, let’s tackle this:
Shouts to anybody who really picks Florida State to win an NCAA Match sport. Seminoles— dangerous non-con slate and all—most likely make the sphere even with a tough L right here. For me, that crew is as meh because it will get for major-conference at-large filler.
— Matt Norlander (@MattNorlander) March 7, 2018
I tweeted that after FSU fell within the ACC match however was nonetheless going to make it into the NCAAs. To me, the Seminoles did not look geared up to win a sport, actually not two. Yeah, besides now that is simply what they’ve achieved. At 22-11, FSU obtained by No.1 Xavier due to a 12-point comeback within the last 10 minutes. But I am nonetheless not bought on this crew all that a lot. Nothing private. It is not top-30 in offensive or defensive effectivity. It gained at Florida, however apart from that, did not beat a match crew in non-con play. However it does have two wins vs. groups nonetheless within the discipline. FSU wanted three complete overtimes to beat Syracuse and Clemson at dwelling.
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Precise seed: No. 9 within the South Regional. This is the place we hit the drop-off. I am rating Ok-State 15 as an alternative of 16 as a result of Dean Wade mentioned he expects to play in Thursday’s sport in opposition to Kentucky in Atlanta. Bruce Weber is within the fourth Candy 16 of his life. The final time he was there was with Illinois in 2005, en path to the nationwide title sport. This is why Ok-State cannot be ranked greater: It did not beat one crew in non-conference play that made the NCAAs. Within the Large 12, it went Zero-7 in opposition to the three finest groups, that are all nonetheless alive: Kansas, West Virginia and Texas Tech. 16
Precise seed: No. 11 within the Midwest Regional. At 23-13, the Orange are the straightforward choose to convey up the caboose. They have probably the most losses of any crew within the Candy 16. They have been the ultimate crew within the discipline on Choice Sunday. Jim Boeheim has mentioned this crew is not nice. However that zone is befuddling and could be a hex on sure groups within the match. The Orange held off Arizona State 60-56 within the First 4. Then they quietly ended sixth-seeded TCU’s season 57-52. Towards Michigan State, SU appeared prefer it had a spell on Sparty. A hideous 55-53 win. The way you make a Candy 16 averaging 57 factors, and scoring fewer factors with every opponent being harder than the final, is a thriller. Buffalo, Virginia Tech, Miami and Clemson are this crew’s common season wins over match competitors. Now comes Duke, which held the Orange to a season-low 44 factors in February.
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South Carolina Gamecocks' A'ja Wilson, Notre Dame Fighting Irish coach Muffet McGraw and Texas A&M Aggies' Chennedy Carter win espnW awards
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South Carolina Gamecocks' A'ja Wilson, Notre Dame Fighting Irish coach Muffet McGraw and Texas A&M Aggies' Chennedy Carter win espnW awards
It is always a challenge to whittle down the best of the women’s college basketball season to three honorees: player, coach and freshman of the year. But all three of our picks made major statements this season and found ways to separate themselves. Here are espnW’s picks, as determined by Charlie Creme, Graham Hays and Mechelle Voepel:
Player of the year: South Carolina’s A’ja Wilson
A’ja Wilson had just broken South Carolina’s scoring record in the SEC tournament semifinals on March 3. She was asked if she knew the previous record-holder, Sheila Foster, and whether she had ever spoken with her. Wilson said no, but she’d like to.
Then guard Doniyah Cliney couldn’t help but chime in that Foster frequently sat behind the Gamecocks’ bench.
“Yeah, yeah, yeah, OK,” Wilson said, laughing as she corrected herself. “I had to get my people straight. I have talked to her.”
South Carolina’s A’ja Wilson, the espnW player of the year, joined UConn’s Katie Lou Samuelson and Gabby Williams, Oregon’s Sabrina Ionescu and Mississippi State’s Teaira McCowan. In all, 15 players were honored on our first, second and third teams.
How did Saturday’s eight conference tournament finals impact our latest projection? Six new teams — Cal State Northridge, Elon, Grambling, Seattle, Stephen F. Austin and Western Kentucky — joined the field. Rutgers, Buffalo, Creighton and Nebraska are the “last four in.”
Champ Week is underway. Check out the conference tournament schedules and winners and see which 32 teams have clinched a berth in the NCAA tournament.
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It’s understandable if Wilson can’t always remember the many conversations she has had with South Carolina alums and supporters. Wilson, who led the Gamecocks to their first NCAA title last season as the Final Four most outstanding player, has been the face of the program the past four seasons, especially this year as a senior.
And what a year it has been for her. She led the Gamecocks to a second-place finish in the SEC regular season and then was MVP as South Carolina won the SEC tournament for an unprecedented fourth year in a row. Wilson was also named SEC player of the year for the third time. And it’s all but certain that she’ll be the first pick in April’s WNBA draft.
Alaina Coates, Allisha Gray and Kaela Davis all left after South Carolina won the national championship and were picked in the 2017 WNBA draft. Wilson returned as the senior spokeswoman for the Gamecocks, and she has filled the leader’s role well. She has averaged 22.6 points and 11.8 rebounds, with 94 blocks. For her career, Wilson has 2,298 points.
“At SEC media day, I heard some coaches saying, ‘We’ve already started prepping for A’ja,'” Wilson said. “That started my thinking process of: ���This has got to be your season. Everybody expects that of you.’
“This year is different because we have some young players on the team who are trying to get back to where we were last year, and they think it’s easy. But it’s not. So it’s about helping them understand that, too.”
Wilson’s standard refrain when asked about any of her myriad achievements is that it’s “a blessing.” And South Carolina coach Dawn Staley says the same thing in regard to getting to coach the hometown product Wilson for four years.
“A lot of times, people slow their growth as players because they have to work on their character and having better habits,” Staley said. “With A’ja, it was strictly basketball she had to work on. We just had to give her the experience that she needed to grow and blossom into what she is.” — Mechelle Voepel
A severely injury-depleted roster didn’t stop Muffet McGraw from putting together another résumé worthy of a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports
Coach of the year: Notre Dame’s Muffet McGraw
Muffet McGraw is in the Naismith Hall of Fame. She has won a national championship. She has taken seven teams to the Final Four. She has coached numerous All-Americans. Yet 2017-18 might have been the best job she has ever done.
Four Irish players suffered ACL tears in the past calendar year, limiting McGraw to seven scholarship players — and a number of those haven’t been fully healthy. Still, Notre Dame lost just three games, tied for a fifth straight ACC regular-season title and likely heads into the NCAA tournament as a No. 1 seed for the seventh consecutive year.
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McGraw knew she was entering the season without All-American forward Brianna Turner, who tore her ACL in last year’s NCAA tournament. Then the injuries started piling up. Guard Mychal Johnson went down during the preseason, promising freshman forward Mikayla Vaughn got hurt right before the start of the season, and Stanford transfer Lili Thompson fell victim to the ACL epidemic in the second ACC game of the season.
The injuries to Johnson and Thompson left McGraw without a proven point guard and no depth in the backcourt. Sharp-shooter Marina Mabrey had to assume the role of lead guard with a little help from sophomore Jackie Young, who has played much of the season with a broken nose. After a 33-point loss at Louisville in mid-January, it appeared the injuries might be too much to overcome. But they weren’t.
McGraw cut down on practice time, worked out new roles for nearly everyone still playing and expertly managed minutes. Two games after the Louisville blowout, McGraw and the depleted Irish engineered the largest comeback in school history (23 points) to beat Tennessee. That jump-started a 14-game winning streak that didn’t end until a two-point loss to Louisville in the ACC tournament finals. The only teams Notre Dame has lost to this season are likely No. 1 seeds (UConn was the other).
McGraw has won national coach of the year three other times (2001, 2013, 2014), but none were likely as rewarding and satisfying as this one. — Charlie Creme
Chennedy Carter, who scored 46 points in just her 11th college game, leads Texas A&M with 21.4 points per game, and has scored 30 or more points five times. Jim Brown-USA TODAY Sport
Freshman of the year: Texas A&M’s Chennedy Carter
Chennedy Carter knows what she’s supposed to say as a point guard. You know, how she scores when she has to but mostly wants to pass the ball.
“I love breaking the defender down and then finding the open player,” Carter said. “That’s really a great feeling to me. I love to share the ball and get everybody involved.”
But this kid can flat-out score. She leads the Aggies at 21.4 points per game, and scored 30 or more points five times — including a 46-point performance in a 75-74 victory at Southern Cal on Dec. 15 in just her 11th college game.
Carter also had 156 assists to 111 turnovers, with 62 steals. She’s shooting 44.5 percent from the field and has made 56 3-pointers.
The 5-foot-7 Carter — who pronounces her first name “Kennedy” — is from Mansfield, Texas. She has three brothers whom she says contributed to her fearless attitude on court.
“I feel like they instilled that competitor in me,” Carter said. “So I know what I can do; I’ve put a lot of work in. And I know that my coaches are going to put me in position to be successful.”
Aggies coach Gary Blair has had some terrific point guards over the years, and he sees Carter as another in that line.
“She understands the game. And sometimes, she has to take a little tough love,” Blair said. “I’m not the easiest person to get along with sometimes. But the love-hate relationship you have with your point guard goes on until we become one [mind]. And when we become that, we can become unstoppable.”
Carter played on USA Basketball’s U19 team last summer, mostly at shooting guard, saying, “I was able to look up to people and get a lot of experience.”
Blair added, “She can create her shot off of anybody. That’s why USA basketball played her at the 2-guard, because they had [UConn’s Crystal] Dangerfield and [South Carolina’s] Tyasha Harris, and she wasn’t ready to lead a team of stars like that. But she was ready to be their leading scorer, because she was instant offense at the 2.”
This season for Texas A&M, Carter has sought to be instant offense as well as run the point. She has had a lot of success, and she has never shied from key moments.
“I’m kinda used to playing on big stages,” Carter said. “I give the credit to my teammates and coaching staff — they trusted and believed in me, and I trusted the process. Now everything has started to come together.” — Mechelle Voepel
#Aggies#Aja#Awards#Carolina#Carter#Chennedy#Coach#Dame#espnW#fighting#Gamecocks#Irish#McGraw#Muffet#Notre#South#Texas#Wilson#win#Sports#Sports News
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Ole Miss guard Breein Tyree makes a play for the basket in last week’s season opener against Louisiana. Photo by Petre Thomas/Ole Miss Athletics
The Ole Miss men’s basketball team returns to the court this evening as they play host to the Eastern Kentucky Colonels. Tip-off is set for 5:30 p.m. inside the Pavilion.
Ole Miss (1-0) is coming off of a 94-76 victory over Louisiana in the season opener. Junior Terence Davis led the Rebels in scoring with 21 points in the game.
His teammate, Devontae Shuler, added 14 points of his own, which is the most by an Ole Miss freshman in a season opener since Trevor Gaskins tallied 21 against Mississippi Valley State in 2007.
Tonight’s matchup between the Rebels and Colonels is an “undercard game” for the MGM Grand Main Event, which will take place in Las Vegas Nov. 20-22. Ole Miss is playing in the “Heavyweight Bracket” with Utah, Rice and UNLV, while Eastern Kentucky is in the “Middleweight Bracket” with Prairie View A&M, Georgia State and Eastern Washington.
Eastern Kentucky enters Monday night’s matchup 1-0 after a season-opening 73-72 victory at Rice. The Colonels went 17-of-19 from the charity stripe, including three from freshman Dedric Boyd with five seconds left in the contest that gave EKU the win.
Boyd finished with 20 points in his collegiate debut, and junior forward Nick Mayo added a team-high 25 points. Mayo, a Preseason All-OVC honoree who is on the watch list for the Karl Malone Award (nation’s best power forward) and Lou Henson Award (nation’s top mid-major player), added 12 rebounds and knocked down 9 of 10 free throws throughout the contest.
In the third season under Head Coach Dan McHale, Eastern Kentucky returns three starters from a team that went 12-19 during the 2016-17 campaign.
Ole Miss and EKU have only met on the hardwood once before, with the Rebels winning that game 95-92 in 1955.
Adam Brown is the sports editor of HottyToddy.com. He can be reached at [email protected].
The post Ole Miss Welcomes Eastern Kentucky to the Pavilion appeared first on HottyToddy.com.
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Celtics’ preseason with an active start
--A short summary from Celtics’ first preseason game
On Monday October 2, the brand new Boston Celtics kicked off the preseason with a 94-82 win over Charlotte Hornets. Coach Brad Stevens rested his three top stars: Kyrie Irving, Gordon Hayward, and Al Horford during the entire second half in order to give every Celtics player a chance to prove themselves, and it turns out great. Every Celtics player proved their value and they played good team basketball.
Because this is preseason, so Irving, Hayward, and Horford don't have too much time to play, but they already showed some chemicals. Before the game, most people worried about Kyrie Irving’s isolation play style might contradict to Celtics’ team basketball style. However, Irving showed himself more as a pick and roll passer and scorer and off the screen catch and shooter. He was actively moving around without ball and help the team to execute each play, delivered 9 points, 4 rebounds and 3 assists and 2 steals during his 19 minutes play. Hayward and Horford made a good effort on executing play also and they each got 5 and 6 rebounds during their 16 minutes play.
Aside from the big three, the other players really showed their passion for the new season. Aron Baynes was the starting center for that game, and he scored 10 points with 62.5% during his 18 minutes play, most of his points are from his pick and pop mid-range jump shot, which proved his decent ability for setting screen and stretching the floor for the team. Jaylen Brown and the new rookie Jayson Tatum wasn't performing well on stats wide, but their athleticism makes the team more easy to attack the rim and can also limit opponent’s transition. Marcus Smart’s improvement over the summer can also be found in the game. He made three three pointers with 42.9%. If he can keep up this kind of shooting form, he will become a dangerous weapon on the court. People would think that the Hornets, who trailed 47-43 at halftime, would have pulled off a comeback in the end. However, Celtics’ young and inexperienced bench become the nail in the coffin. Daniel Theis, Abdel Nader and Shane Larkin combined to tally 26 points, 11 rebounds and 5 assists over the final 17 minutes of the game.
It’s only the preseason, it’s normal that players don’t have perfect stats, But Celtics’ players really showed their passion towards the game.
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Reebok Preseason 94 Mid
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Western Illinois, Year 24, 2030-2031
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The Leathernecks hang a banner for national title No. 4 and try to go back-to-back for the first time ever.
Welcome back to our simulated dynasty with the Western Illinois Leathernecks in College Hoops 2K8. You can find a full explanation of this project + spoiler-free links to previous seasons here. Check out the introduction to this series from early April for full context. As a reminder, we simulate every game in this series and only control the recruiting and coaching strategies.
Before we get to Year 24, here’s a recap of everything that happened last season.
Year 22 ended in a heartbreaker for Western Illinois: we lost in the national championship game in the final seconds, and then saw our three best juniors leave early for the NBA draft. We would begin Year 23 with only one returning starter.
We struggled in the non-conference schedule, losing seven games before entering Summit League play. We again swept the conference and won the conference tournament, earning a No. 13 seed to the big dance.
We beat No. 4 seed USC, 83-76, in the first round of the NCAA tournament. We defeated No. 5 seed Pepperdine, 90-86, in the round of 32. In the Sweet 16, we knocked off No. 8 seed Ole Miss, 106-85. In the Elite Eight, we shocked No. 2 seed UConn, 91-82, to punch our ticket the Final Four. Read the full recap of our road to the Final Four here.
We beat No. 11 seed UNLV, 91-90, in the Final Four on a last second putback by LF Neal. We then defeated No. 1 seed George Washington, 104-88, in the championship game to win our fourth ever national title. Read the full Final Four recap here.
We signed three recruits after the season: four-star center Cecil Sinville, four-star point guard Goran Kent, and three-star small forward Nic Cummings.
For the fourth time since Coach Rick arrived in Macomb, the Western Illinois Leathernecks are national champions. Hang the banner!
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I’m still shocked by this title run. As a No. 13 seed, we’re now the lowest-seeded team to ever win a national championship. To do it after losing three great players early to the NBA makes it even more remarkable. We weren’t even good in the non-conference slate! None it mattered once the calendar flipped to March, when we found the gear we’d been searching for all season.
Celebrate this “One Shining Moment” with us:
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Onward to Year 24. Let’s defend this ship.
Here’s a look at our roster heading into Year 24.
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Let’s begin the new season by stating a simple fact: we’ve never won back-to-back national championships. In fact, the previous three times we’ve defended a title, we haven’t even made it past the round of 32. I believe this team is again good enough to win it all, but it’s going to be tough considering what we lost. Artie Snipes, our 7’1 junior center, bounced early to the NBA. We also lost power forward LF Neal to graduation after he cemented himself as one of the great glue guys in program history.
Fortunately, we’re still returning three starters, including the Most Outstanding Player from last year’s tournament. Let’s meet the starters:
PG Koko Reeves, redshirt senior, 91 overall: Koko silenced any doubters coming into the season by developing into a rock solid lead guard for a national title team. Reeves was productive throughout the regular season (13.2 points per game) and thrived on the biggest stages, most notably with 13 points and 12 assists in the national title game. At 6-foot, Reeves is the smallest player we’ve ever had, but he’s also our best three-pointer with an 89 rating from deep. He could be in for a big year. Former No. 52 overall recruit.
SG Edwin Wolfe, redshirt senior, 88 overall: The Wolfe Man began last season as our lowest-rated starter in, like, decades. He ended it as a Final Four hero and national champion. Wolfe hit his first seven three-pointers against UNLV in the national semifinal, and played excellent defense all year. The 6’2 guard has the highest steals rating (95) in program history. While a bit undersized, he gives us a solid three-and-D option on the wing. Former five-star JUCO recruit.
SF Jitim Dupree, redshirt senior, 93 overall: The 6’10, 242 pound wing officially became one of the all-time great Leathernecks with an inspired run through the NCAA tournament last year. Dupree dropped 30 or more points three different times, including 34 points on GW in the national title to win tournament MOP. A disruptive defender because of his length, Dupree is also a reliable outside shooter who can finish inside. He’s the second tallest player on the roster this season and might even log some small-ball five minutes for us in the tournament. Former No. 91 overall recruit and projected lottery pick.
PF J.J. Bracy, redshirt sophomore, 88 overall: Bracy was our highest-rated recruit ever when he gave us his commitment as the No. 24 overall player in his class. He just had one problem: at 6’6, he was significantly undersized for a power forward. We hoped Bracy would grow at least two inches in school, and that’s exactly what happened. Now 6’8, Bracy enters the starting lineup as a sophomore with a fascinating skill set. He’s the highest-rated shot blocker on the team (94 rating) and an excellent rebounder on defense. On offense, he’s a pass-first forward who also has shooting range. Watch the Bracy recruiting hype video by reader Ryan if you want to see how we scouted him. I’m super excited to see what he can do.
C Dick Copeland, redshirt sophomore, 87 overall: Copeland is distinct in Leathernecks lore for three different reasons: 1) As the former No. 2 overall center prospect, he was the highest-rated big man we had ever recruited when he committed. 2) He has an A rating in potential, which is the highest in program history. 3) He hasn’t grown since he entered the program, which means he’s the shortest center in school history at 6’8. Copeland is obviously super talented going by his potential rating, but the last few seasons we’ve had 7’2 Kevin Brazzle and 7’1 Artie Snipes in the middle for us. It’s going to be really interesting to see what we do with such an undersized front court.
We also have some serious talent on the bench, though we’re not very deep. You might remember Alexis Willingham from dropping 15 points in the national title game. Now a redshirt sophomore, Willingham has grown an inch to 6’5 and gives us a big guard with shooting ability on the second unit. He’s joined by fellow sophomore Skip Clemmons, a natural shooting guard who moves the wing after growing to 6’8, 247 pounds. He’s almost bigger than our starting center! There’s also the debut of 6’3 redshirt freshman shooting guard Albert Jagla, who is the highest recruit in program history as the former No. 17 overall prospect in his class. Rounding out the rotation is 6’11 center Cecil Sinville, who will be our first true freshman in the rotation since ... Ira Wells in the very early days of my tenure. Hey, we need at least one big off the bench. Sinville also has A- potential and was the No. 1 center in his recruiting class, so it’s probably unlikely he was staying in school for five years anyway.
We’ve also decided to keep walk-on Ian Hoyer, a 6’8 power forward rated as a 54 overall, to provide some additional depth. I’ll tell you now I immediately regretted this decision because of how often the computer decided to play him in games despite the fact that I had him set at zero minutes in the rotation.
We’re redshirting our two other freshmen: small forward Nic Cummings (74 overall, B- potential) and 6’5 point guard Goran Kent (72 overall, C potential). Cummings already has a 92 dunking rating! Next Tom Chambers? Kent looks pretty mid to be honest but at least he has great size.
Recruiting
The real intrigue of this regular season is going to come in recruiting. Because we only filled three of our four available scholarships last season, we have five scholarships to play with this year. We’re prioritizing getting a high-level shooting guard and two big men. Here are the five players we offered on the first week:
6’4 SG Neil Modrovich out of Cleveland, No. 62 overall and No. 17 at his position
6’10 PF Michael Pratt out of Kenosha, WI, No. 120 overall and No. 10 at his position
7’2 C Daron Coulter out of Charlotte, No. 196 overall and No. 7 at his position
6’5 SG Terry Bills out of Chicago, No. 31 overall and No. 7 at his position
6’2 PG Jessie Waller out of Fort Lauderdale, No. 50 overall and No. 22 at his position
The challenge of this dynasty has always been recruiting top players to such a small school. Our total number is recruiting points is so much lower than power-five programs, so we have to be smart about how we allocate them. I decide to use my flights on Modrovich and Pratt. We badly want to land at least one of them at the early signing deadline.
We also need to add in our created players for the winner of last year’s bracket contest. Reader Abby won as the only person (I think) to pick our Leathernecks to win it all. Thank you for your belief. Here’s the description she sent in:
Position: PG
Height: 5’11”
Weight: 160 lbs
Aesthetics: As femme as you can get, lmao: Long hair, no facial hair, give her some diamond stud earrings and a small gold necklace.
Stats/play style: Tenacious defense. Surprisingly high vert. All passing on offense with solid drive and cutting skills. Reliable from the line, likes to make contact. Quick feet, not great stamina, is that her 5th board?, and you know I’m clutch.
Done and done. I’m also recreating reader Justin, who won the bracket contest two seasons ago, because I made his character too old and bad last time.
We begin the year rated as a 97 overall. Somehow, we aren’t ranked in the preseason polls? Give the champs some respect! I guess we’ll just have to prove everyone wrong again.
First game: @ No. 9 Indiana
We’re starting the year off with a true road game against a national championship contender. Indiana has a loaded roster and looks like they will be among the top seeds in the NCAA tournament. Last season, we were much better as a stream team than a sim team. This will be a legitimate test to see if we can beat elite teams during sim games now that we’re equipped with *championship experience.*
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Loss, 79-57. Woof. That’s about the worst we’ve played offensively. Not much to take away from a game were we shoot 32.7 percent from the field and turn it over 13 times.
Next up is South Florida, led by junior power forward Rudolpho Butt Jr., the created player made by former bracket contest winner reader Gavin. RBJ is a rated as a 91 overall and gives USF a dynamic 7-foot big man with versatility on both ends. The rest of this Bulls team looks legit, too. We streamed this game on Twitch.
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Win, 99-77. The stream team is back in the building. We looked great, with the old stars leading us once again. Jitim Dupree (23 points) is unguardable, Wolfe continues to bring two-way impact (15 points, four steals), and our young bench is ridiculously talented. I’m particularly excited about Jagla dropping 15 points in his debut.
That game is why I’m optimistic about this team entering the tournament regardless of how we do during this regular season. It sure would be nice to get a high seed, though.
We face Miami (OH) next as requested by reader Z.W. Should be an easy dub.
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Win, 79-73. OK, that was a little closer than anticipated. Look at Koko Reeves go off: 31 points on 9-of-15 shooting. Beautiful. We love to see a short king shine. I’m also enjoying the boost off the bench from Skip Clemmons, who added 15 points on 3-of-4 shooting from deep. I really think Clemmons is going to be a monster for this program at his peak.
We get some bad news on the recruiting front: Waller gets an offer from South Florida he likes better than ours, so we drop him. We instead decide to extend a scholarship offer to 6’1 point guard Shamell Schneider out of St. Paul, MN, the No. 53 overall prospect in the class and No. 25 point guard.
Michigan is the next team on our schedule.
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Win, 63-46. We put up a great defensive performance while only finishing with six stocks. Maybe Michigan just couldn’t hit anything? Sophomore power forward J.J. Bracy was excellent, finishing with 18 points and six rebounds on 6-of-8 shooting.
Signing week is here we are at 100 percent interest for both Neil Modrovich and Michael Pratt.. DePaul is also at 100 percent interest for Pratt, but they haven’t offered yet. We have no competition for Modrovich, so hopefully he’s ready to commit.
But first, we face DePaul. The Blue Demons haven’t had much success in this sim playing in the old and absolutely loaded Big East, but they’ve got the best of us several times in head-to-head matchups.
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Loss, 85-75. Rough. Koko went loco again, getting hot from deep to finish with 27 points, but it wasn’t enough. At least we finally got a good game from our center Dick Copeland, who finished with 17 points despite only making 7-of-12 shots from the foul line. We also have our two early conference games this week, and we blow out Oakland and beat IUPUI by 11. That makes us 5-2 on the year.
Wow, we go 1-for-2 in recruiting. Pratt gets a DePaul offer and signs with the Blue Demons. Just heartbreaking. Did he base his decision on the game we just played?? Man. In better news, we did land Modrovich:
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Modrovich is a really nice get as the No. 62 overall player in the class, and the No. 17 player at his position. We’re hoping he can grow an inch or two in school, and prove he’s a better shooter than his numbers indicate. That is a nice start to our biggest recruiting class yet, but sheesh I wish we could have landed Pratt, too.
Schneider also commits to Minnesota. Now armed with two available scholarships, we decide to offer three-star center C.J. Cesar out of Cincinnati, the No. 9 overall big man in the class, and four-star point guard Drake Amous out of Modesto, CA, the No. 95 overall player and No. 40 overall point guard in the class.
Next up is Illinois. The Illini are our long-time rival who are a tough test every time. We need to show we still run this state after the loss to DePaul.
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Win, 90-73. Huge. Koko continues his killer season with 24 points on 5-of-9 shooting from three-point range. Our young, undersized front court of Copeland and Bracy played well, too, combining for 36 points.
We get more bad news on the recruiting front: Terry Bills gets an offer from Michigan State he appears ready to accept. We withdraw our offer and redirect it to 6’5 shooting guard Theo Cowans, a four-star recruit out of Brookings, South Dakota ranked No. 85 overall and No. 30 at his position.
Dayton is up next. The Flyers have been awesome in this simulation, and they are awesome again. We could see this team deep in the NCAA tournament. This will be a test.
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Loss. 87-72. Ugh. Bracy played well, but we just couldn’t match the talent on the Flyers. We want a rematch in a stream game. Also, why is the walk-on Hoyer playing 17 minutes???
Now we have Iowa. The Hawkeyes really haven’t been a factor in this sim at all. We need a win here.
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Win, 73-43. We had big Copeland energy in this one, as the sophomore center finished with 21 points and six boards. Nice to see Willingham get hot (12 points) off the bench, too.
Next up is Seton Hall. This would be a nice win if we can get it.
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Loss, 89-84. A bunch of solid offensive performances for our guys, but we couldn’t get enough stops defensively to win. It’s tough to beat a good team when your starting point guard and center have rough nights like Reeves and Copeland did here. I do like what Dupree did (17 points, seven rebounds) — he’s always been a better stream team performer than sim player, but we can use more efforts like this to help us get a decent seed.
We close out the regular season with Kentucky. The Wildcats actually haven’t been a top-tier program during this sim — they have zero national titles — but they are still always competitive. Let’s see if we can get a dub here.
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Loss, 67-48. Well, damn. That was an atrocious Edwin Wolfe game (0-of-7 shooting), but we can’t only blame him. As a team, we shot 25.4 percent from the field. That’s not how we wanted to end non-conference play. We finish with a 5-5 non-con record. We’re going to need to win the Summit tournament once again to make the big dance.
We have like a five-year winning streak in Summit League play at this point. As we enter conference season, can we run the table once again?
Yes we can. Our Leathernecks again go 18-0 in the Summit League once again to end the season at 23-5. The recruiting period ends with a mixed bag: we’re in position to land 6’9 center C.J. Cesar on the first day of the spring signing period, but Coulter, Amous, and Cowans all remain far way from making a decision. It’s going to be a big offseason to shape the future of the program. For our created players, reader Abby appears set to sign with Villanova. Reader Justin signed with NC State already.
Before we get to the conference tournament, let’s check out the stats:
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Long-time fans of the series will remember that our center or power forward leads us in scoring almost every year. I don’t think we’ve ever had a point guard put up numbers like Koko: 16.7 points per game on 41 percent shooting from three. I thought everyone else was decent but not amazing. Hopefully we can find a higher level again in stream games.
We need to win the conference tournament first, though. Let’s do it.
Summit League tournament
Our first game in the conference tournament is against Oakland.
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Win, 109-57. Koko, Copeland, and Dupree all scoring more than 20 points! We now face IUPUI in the semifinals:
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Win, 84-50. Excellent balance throughout the rotation. Now we’re in the Summit League championship game against UL-Calcutta.
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Win, 67-62! We’re back in the NCAA tournament to defend our title. We actually watched the first half of this one on Twitch, then ‘simmed to end’ with a big lead. And we nearly blew it! That would have haunted me if we didn’t pull it out.
I have no idea what seed this team will get at 26-5 on the year.
2031 NCAA tournament
Western Illinois is a No. 10 seed with a first round matchup against No. 7 seed Cal. The winner is likely to face No. 2 seed South Florida in the round of 32. Yes, the same USF team we whooped in a stream game earlier this year.
Here’s a look at our roster going into the tournament:
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All five of our starters are rated in the 90s as we enter the tournament. This will be one last ride through March with Jitim Dupree, Koko Reeves, and the Wolfe Man. Can’t wait to see what Bracy and Copeland can do as first-time starters in the tournament. I’m also really excited about our perimeter threats on the bench with Willingham, Clemmons, and Jagla.
This team has lots of shooting, with five players rated 80 or better in three-point shooting, and another (Clemmons) who’s rated as a 79 in the category. We have lots of March Madness experience. Our only real flaw is our lack of size in the middle.
Here’s how we matchup with Pitt in the first round:
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We want to be back-to-back champs. After messing around with ‘coach mode’ during the regular season, I’ve decided against doing it in the tournament after this post by reader Dave on our Reddit fan page.
We’re going to be streaming the NCAA tournament on Monday, Oct. 12 at 8:30 p.m. on Twitch. But first, let’s get to the bracket contest.
Join our bracket contest!
We’ve been running a bracket contest for the last few seasons, and it’s been a ton of fun. We’re opening it up to anyone who wants to enter as long as you turn in your bracket before we stream our first NCAA tournament game on Monday, Oct. 12 at 8:30 p.m. on Twitch.
Here’s a look at the full 2031 NCAA tournament bracket:
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How does scoring work?
We use a standard scoring format. You get one point for correctly guessing the winner in a first round game, two points for correctly a winner in a round of 32 game, four points for correctly guessing a winner in a Sweet 16 game, eight points for correctly guessing a winner in an Elite Eight game, 16 points for correctly guessing a winner in the Final Four, and 32 points for correctly guessing the national champion.
Can I see the rosters for the other teams?
No. We’re going no rosters this year. It’s a free for all!
How do I enter?
1. Click this link to open the interactive bracket.
2. After opening, in the top left select File > Make a Copy
3. Make your picks
4. In the top left, select File and either “Share” and share with [email protected] or “Email as attachment” and email as an Excel file (not PDF please!) to [email protected]
Once your picks are entered, you can track scoring with Sean’s Blog Team app that works on desktop and mobile.
What does the winner get?
The winner gets to create themselves or a character as a five-star recruit ahead of next season. We won’t go after the created recruits at Western Illinois to preserve the integrity of the game, but we’ll follow the career of your character throughout our series.
Please enter the bracket contest and join us on Thursday, because it’s going to be really fun. Here’s how you can watch Western Illinois vs. USC in the NCAA tournament on Monday, Oct. 12 at 8:30 p.m. on Twitch.
No. 10 seed Western Illinois vs. No. 7 seed Pitt, first round, 2031 NCAA tournament
Game: No. 10 seed Western Illinois vs. No. 7 seed Pitt, first round, 2031 NCAA tournament
How to watch: My Twitch channel. You don’t need to sign up for anything to watch, but you do need to register for an account to comment. Do it, it’s fun.
Date: Monday, Oct. 12 at 8:30 p.m. on Twitch
Tip-off time: 8:30 p.m. ET
If we win: We’ll face the winner of No. 2 seed South Florida vs. No. 15 seed CS Fullerton in the round of 32 immediately following the first round game.
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The Indians Are Contenders. But Could They Get Away With A Little Tanking?
It will come as no surprise to anyone following baseball that, when we ran an early preseason version of our 2019 MLB projections, the Cleveland Indians came out as heavy favorites to win the American League Central.
Cleveland has won the Central in each of the past three years, by a comfortable margin of 12.7 games on average. Part of this is not the product of Cleveland’s talent but rather the lack thereof among the rest of the teams in the division. In fact, the rest of the division has done so little to try to close the gap that the Indians were openly shopping some of their veteran stars this winter, in part to cut costs, while still intending to win the division. Although some of the bigger rumored deals haven’t actually happened, this type of “have-your-tank-and-beat-them-too” mindset could be an innovative model for top teams trying to retool on the fly in a division laden with rebuilding clubs.
Ordinarily, ace pitcher Corey Kluber is the last player a team would want to part with, having ranked second the majors — behind Washington’s Max Scherzer — in pitching wins above replacement (WAR) over the past five seasons. He’s also under contract for 2019, with team options in both 2020 and 2021. But the Indians would owe Kluber $52.7 million across all of those seasons, assuming both options are picked up. With Cleveland’s seasonal payrolls ballooning from $59 million the year before its streak of division titles began to $143 million last season, Indians brass reportedly put Kluber on the trade block in an effort to slash spending.
Kluber wasn’t alone. The team was also rumored to be shopping around Trevor Bauer, Carlos Carrasco, Yan Gomes, Jason Kipnis, Edwin Encarnacion and Yonder Alonso, all of whom combined with Kluber to produce nearly half (23.0) of the Indians’ 50.4 total WAR last season. Eventually Cleveland was able to offload Alonso, Encarnacion and Gomes (to the White Sox, Mariners and Nationals, respectively), while Carrasco signed an extension. All of those machinations helped free up enough money for the Indians that a Kluber trade no longer sounds likely, at least for the time being. But Kluber and Kipnis still have club options coming up after the season worth $34 million in total, and Bauer has another arbitration year remaining after 2019 (and he won his arbitration cases in each of the past two winters).
In other words, the Indians will still be a team to watch on the trade market — even if nothing else about their team fits the profile of a traditional “seller.”
Typically, teams load up on talent when trying to win a World Series (duh), and they shop their high-priced veterans only when their window to contend is closing. The World Series is so difficult to win — the best team in a given season has only about a 15 percent chance — and the pull of regression is so strong that when a team has a chance to go for a title in the here and now, it makes sense to acquire Cy Young-caliber pitchers, not dangle them in trades.
Kluber, Bauer and Carrasco were all part of a starting corps that ranked first in the majors in WAR last season, edging out even the obscenely stacked Houston Astros rotation that some were calling the greatest of all time. With needs in the bullpen and outfield, and a relatively thin market of free-agent arms available, the Indians weren’t crazy for at least exploring trade offers for Kluber, a pitcher who will turn 33 this season.
But another aspect of what the Indians were doing is an interesting bit of needle-threading made possible by their unusually entrenched position atop the division. Including our preliminary look at 2019, (which is unlikely to change even if, say, Bryce Harper were to sign with the White Sox), this will be the fourth consecutive year that Cleveland is favored to win its division, according to our Elo ratings.
Will it be another year of smooth sailing in Cleveland?
FiveThirtyEight’s preliminary Elo ratings and forecast for the 2019 AL Central race
Avg. Simulated Season Chance to … Team Elo Rating Wins Losses Run Diff. Make Playoffs Win Division Win World Series Indians 1554 95 67 +133 78% 68% 9% Twins 1506 84 78 +24 36 21 2 Royals 1455 71 91 -94 7 4 <1 White Sox 1456 71 91 -95 7 4 <1 Tigers 1447 69 93 -114 5 3 <1
Based on 100,000 simulations of the 2019 MLB season.
Sources: Baseball prospectus, Fangraphs, Clay Davenport, Caesar’s Palace
Going back to the dawn of divisional play in 1969, only 14 teams have been favored to win a division in at least four consecutive seasons (led by the Yankees, who were favored in the AL East an incredible 10 straight seasons from 1995 to 2004). And the Indians’ preseason Elo margin in those four seasons — 44.6 points better than the next-best team, on average — is the highest of any team in any four-season streak as division favorites:
(Interestingly, the second- and third-most lopsided streaks as division favorite are also active in 2019, featuring the Astros in the AL West and the Dodgers in the NL West.1 That’s probably no coincidence, since MLB has gotten very top-heavy in recent seasons, making it easier for heavy favorites to emerge.)
The Indians have been very comfortable division favorites
Largest average margins between second-ranked teams in the division and teams with streaks of at least four straight seasons as a division favorite according to FiveThirtyEight’s preseason Elo ratings, 1969-2019
Team Years Division Average Elo Lead Eventual Streak Length Cleveland Indians 2016-19 AL Central +44.6 4 yrs Houston Astros 2016-19 AL West 40.0 4 Los Angeles Dodgers 2016-19 NL West 35.3 4 Atlanta Braves 1996-99 NL East 31.0 5 Cleveland Indians 1996-99 AL Central 30.4 7 New York Yankees 1999-02 AL East 29.2 10 New York Yankees 1997-00 AL East 27.6 10 New York Yankees 1998-01 AL East 27.4 10 Oakland Athletics 1972-75 AL West 27.1 6 Cleveland Indians 1997-00 AL Central 26.6 7
Overlapping parts of the same larger streak as favorite are included as separate entries.
How did the Indians end up with so few challengers? Cleveland happened upon its divisional stranglehold by filling a void that formed after the Kansas City Royals’ mini-dynasty ended after 2015. It was a great case of a team ascending at exactly the right time and place.
The Royals’ core eroded following back-to-back World Series appearances, with the team bidding farewell to many of the key players from those rosters, and a rebuilding project soon commenced in K.C. At the same time, the Detroit Tigers’ own run of contention with Justin Verlander, Miguel Cabrera and company was winding down. Detroit had won the division four straight seasons from 2011 to 2014, but an 86-win second-place finish in 2016 was its last gasp before starting a rebuild of its own. And the Chicago White Sox are very far removed from their mid-2000s championship heyday, with no season cracking .500 since 2012.
The Minnesota Twins appeared poised to rise up and confront the Indians after winning 85 games in 2017 with a young core of position-player talent (led by center fielder Byron Buxton) and an improving 23-year-old ace in Jose Berrios. But Minnesota backslid to a 78-84 record last season, and our projections give them only a 21 percent probability of overtaking Cleveland this year. Projected front-runners can still run into unexpected threats — just ask the 2018 Dodgers (who barely scraped past the Rockies) or 2018 Astros (who barely scraped past the A’s) — but it would take a big upset for Cleveland to lose its perch atop the Central.
Not that the Indians didn’t flirt with making that upset easier by shopping all those big names this winter. It was an uncommon approach that tried to simultaneously build for the future (not entirely unlike the underlings of the division) while keeping enough talent to win in the here and now. To even entertain the notion, it requires the kind of historically unique cushion Cleveland has enjoyed the past several seasons. Although it would take lots of guts to execute — severely reducing a team’s margin for error in the event of an injury or letdown performance — we might see more of this kind of mentality as tanking becomes more prevalent across MLB.
from News About Sports https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-indians-are-contenders-but-could-they-get-away-with-a-little-tanking/
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As the Golden State Warriors sat in their locker room a year ago, digesting the final loss of the worst collapse in NBA history, Andre Iguodala stood and said he wanted to address the group. Iguodala rarely does this, according to several members of the team. Everyone stopped.
Iguodala insisted they would recover. He mentioned that the San Antonio Spurs had never repeated as champions, a tidbit Warriors coach Steve Kerr, himself a former Spurs player, had mentioned often to underline the difficulty of last season’s challenge. If the team responded the right way, Iguodala said, they could put themselves in position to chase several titles — and wash away the sting from this loss.
Some in the room thought Iguodala might have been hinting at the potential signing of Kevin Durant, though Iguodala never uttered his name or directly discussed free agency, sources said. They glanced at Harrison Barnes and Andrew Bogut, two players who would almost certainly be elsewhere if Durant joined.
Durant joined the team, of course, and the Warriors are champions again after vaporizing the competition over an unprecedented 16-1 rampage through the playoffs, capping the NBA Finals with a 129-120 win over the defending champion Cleveland Cavaliers on Monday to take back the crown in five games.
In the end, they are exactly the team the league expected and feared: the best offensive team ever, and the league’s stingiest defense over the regular season and postseason combined. Aside from an embarrassing season-opening loss to the Spurs, there was almost no drama — no angst over touches, no tense players-only meeting, no slow start. They gelled fast, and blitzed everyone.
“I don’t feel like I sacrificed at all,” Klay Thompson told ESPN.com last week. “I’d rather be a part of something that could leave a legacy. There is more to basketball than getting yours, or being the guy. I hope I do this for a long time for the Warriors.”
The Warriors were never worried about integrating Durant on the court. “This was not getting an isolation guy who needs the ball in his hands,” Kerr told ESPN.com in Cleveland. “He loves moving without the ball. He loves passing. He loves running the floor. He fit in to our system perfectly. We lost some key guys to get him, but you are talking about the second-best player in the world. You don’t even think about it. You think, basically, it’s a miracle: ‘Holy s—, we are getting KD to this team.'”
Team officials like to say that in a way, adding Durant was easier in basketball terms than mixing in LeBron James would have been.
They fretted a bit about how Durant would transition into their culture, and how he would get along with Curry. They did not know each other well. At a team dinner after their fourth preseason game, in Denver, Durant and Curry ended up at the same table. Players and coaches gradually filtered out, but the two stars sipped wine long into the night. Team officials watched, happy the two were getting past the awkward early stages of any friendship.
“We just talked about life,” Durant told ESPN.com. “When you get a good bond with someone, you can talk for hours.”
Five days later at a dinner in Las Vegas, after an exhibition game there, Durant approached Bruce Fraser, an assistant coach, and revealed why he came to Golden State, they both recalled. He didn’t need a championship, Durant told Fraser, though of course he hoped to win one. He wanted a new experience, and from afar in Oklahoma City, the Warriors’ culture looked appealing.
After a month, Durant was ready to offer an early conclusion: “It’s even better than I thought,” he told Fraser.
“I came here to have fun,” Durant told ESPN.com before Game 4. “I wanted to be one of the guys. Right away, they didn’t treat me like I was ‘KD,’ or act like they wanted me to be a kind of vocal leader. I was happy from Day 1.”
Even if the basketball fit were to prove more troublesome than expected, Durant was obviously worth it. “We all felt we needed some fresh blood anyway,” Kerr said. “Getting to the Finals a third year in a row is so difficult emotionally.”
The basketball fit was not troublesome. The coaches added more new plays for David West than for Durant, Kerr said. They only had to break Durant from some of the habits he learned in Oklahoma City’s more stagnant system. On fast breaks, Durant would run to the corner and stand there. The Warriors taught him to keep moving if he didn’t get the ball right away, slash inside, and set screens for Curry or Thompson.
Fraser ran him through basic give-and-go drills. After offensive rebounds, Durant learned to slam Curry and Thompson’s defenders with picks instead of floating out to the 3-point arc.
“I was used to waiting around for the ball to come to me,” Durant said. By the end of training camp, he had those things down.
“It was pretty seamless,” Thompson said.
There were hiccups, of course. Curry agitated for more pick-and-rolls after taking only 11 shots in a dispiriting fall-from-ahead loss in Cleveland. Twelve days later, Green yelled at Durant for freezing the offense in crunch time of a loss against Memphis. Amid what passed for drama, the Warriors were 31-6.
“Those were basically the only two times we had anything to talk about as a team,” Kerr said. Kerr recalibrated the offense to feature more pick-and-rolls for Curry. The team’s passes per game ticked up in mid-January after falling into a rut in the prior six weeks.
“What makes our team dynamic is Steph using high screens,” Kerr said. “We should have been doing more of that around Christmas. We basically told Steph, ‘Just be you again. KD is going to get 25 no matter what.'”
The NBA has had super-teams before, but none quite like this. The Warriors boast four All-NBA-level players age 29 or younger. Three of them rank among the 10 greatest shooters ever; they are all lethal away from the ball. The fourth, Green, is more initiator than finisher, and ranks as a generational defensive player.
The only-one-ball problem that caused growing pains with the Miami Heat was never going to be an issue in Golden State. They are a fully realized powerhouse in Year 1, and they are confident they will get even better as Durant absorbs the tendencies and quirks of his teammates — and they absorb his.
“We only peeled the first layer,” Fraser said. “There are many more.”
The league and union must grapple with how we arrived here. A salary cap is designed to prevent star-laden teams from adding more talent without giving up much in return. The league’s rich new national TV deal broke the system. It triggered a one-time-only mega-spike in the cap — from $70 million last season to $94 million in this one — that provided Golden State room to sign Durant and retain most of its key players.
The league saw it coming late, and in 2014 proposed a method of phasing in the cap increase in increments over more years. The players would still get all their money. It would be just be distributed a little differently. The union rejected the idea out of hand, and didn’t counter by asking for anything in return — beyond making a little noise, sources say, about the possibility of getting some of the TV money in advance.
The dialogue basically ended there. The league has insisted there was nothing more it could do. The union’s objection was absolute, and ironclad. Perhaps that is true. It does not change the fact that there are team executives who believe the league could and should have done more — threatening, bargaining, something — to foreclose the possibility of this monster growing in Oakland. (Depending on the particulars, Golden State might have been able to fit Durant under a smoothed cap by dumping Iguodala into another team’s space. It’s hard to know for sure.)
Rivals a tier below Golden State and Cleveland are contemplating whether chasing the Warriors is even worth it while all four stars are in their primes. Why exchange draft picks and young players for present-day talent if an upgrade still leaves you way short?
“You know where your competition is,” said Danny Ainge, the GM of the Boton Celtics, who chose to stand pat at the trade deadline when the Chicago Bulls demanded a king’s ransom for Jimmy Butler. “The formula to become an elite team hasn’t changed. What you’re asking is if Golden State has changed things so that you have no chance.”
Most teams don’t have the luxury of even asking this question. Franchises in Charlotte and Memphis just have to be as good as they can be every season. The Celtics are different. They are straddling two paths as a 53-win team with a heap of extra draft picks, including the No. 1 pick this month and the Brooklyn Nets’ unprotected pick next season.
The Toronto Raptors were in a similar situation when they flipped Terrence Ross and three draft picks — including one first-rounder — for Serge Ibaka and PJ Tucker. They went close to all-in, though without surrendering any asset nearly as valuable as those Brooklyn picks. Cleveland humiliated them in four games.
Most team executives around the league agree there might be some small overall chilling effect on win-now transactions in the wake of Golden State’s run. Middling teams without a star could attempt a multi-year process-style bottoming out, though none appear primed to do so. “As a response to the Golden State mega-team, I hear the NBA is considering giving out banners to teams who don’t get swept,” chuckled Daryl Morey, Houston’s GM.
Morey is joking. He has a top-five player in James Harden — “top-three, we think, for sure,” Morey said — and will not sacrifice a season of Harden’s prime in trembling awe of these Warriors. Nor will the Spurs trifle with Kawhi Leonard’s best years. They will not trade those players to bottom out, either. The whole point of tanking is to get a chance at players who might be as good as Harden and Leonard.
Weird stuff happens. Role players make unexpected leaps. Teams nail draft picks. Stars get hurt at the wrong time. Making the Finals would still mean something to any Eastern Conference team that unseats LeBron, even if the Warriors sweep them.
“They are not unbeatable,” Morey said of Golden State. “There have been bigger upsets in sports history. We are going to keep improving our roster.”
Ainge remembers feeling his 1986 champion Celtics would stay on top for years. The Detroit Pistons seized the Eastern Conference two years later.
“Something can happen that nobody foresees,” Ainge said. “I don’t look at it as doom and gloom right now.”
Boston paid Al Horford the max last summer. He is 31. If Durant were still in Oklahoma City, Boston might burn more future assets to win today. But they are still going to try.
“We are definitely not in punt mode,” Ainge said. “But trading away picks and promising young players for a veteran who might be 5 percent better is not in our plans, either.”
There is always a super-team to chase. If this one is better than its predecessors, that doesn’t mean everyone peels off that chase. “I like having targets in Cleveland and Golden State,” Ainge said. “I like trying to meet their standards. It might not happen in a year. It might not happen in five years. WIth them, it might never happen. That’s how special they are.”
The next tier of teams might have to take more risks to increase their game-to-game variability — and nudge their ceiling up, Morey said. Houston traded a first-round pick for Lou Williams, a streaky scorer who might give an underdog two or three crazy outlier games it needs to pull off an upset. Other rivals will need to hit home runs on those trades, or preserve cap space for long-shot runs at stars in free agency. Miami is loading up now to pursue Gordon Hayward, according to league sources.
“We are used to long odds,” Morey added. “If Golden State makes the odds longer, we might up our risk profile and get even more aggressive. We have something up our sleeve.”
They also know the Warriors may not be able to afford their team as the four stars sign mammoth new deals, potentially starting with Durant and Curry this summer. Depending on what happens with Iguodala, Shaun Livingston, and Zaza Pachulia — also free agents in July — the Warriors could vault $20 million over the tax next season, and $30 million over in 2018-19.
Thompson becomes eligible for a new deal that summer. Max him out, and the payroll could crack $300 million with extra penalties for repeat taxpayers. And that is factoring conservatively, with Iguodala and Livingston off the books after 2019; a below-market estimate for Patrick McCaw (a restricted free agent after next season); and the rest of the roster filled with minimum contracts, cost-controlled first-rounders, and cheapo second-round picks. (The Warriors have traded their second-round picks in each of the next three drafts, but they are trying to buy back into this draft, according to several league sources.)
Then comes Green, in the summer of 2020. If he hits free agency eligible for the super-max designated player extension, the Warriors are looking at a roster bill approaching $440 million. Coaxing two of the stars into below-market deals wouldn’t make enough of a dent. They also paid almost $50 million into the league’s revenue-sharing system last season, according to sources familiar with the data.
The Warriors print money, and they will print more when they move into a new arena in San Francisco. They are worth at least four or five times what this ownership group paid for them a half-decade ago. An unexpected leap in the cap could ease the pain.
Still, no team has ever paid anything like that. The Warriors almost certainly won’t. The only way out is to trade one star. Thompson would seem the likeliest candidate.
Nobody is ready to go there yet, of course. The Warriors can’t even acknowledge the dilemma — even whisper the chance of a breakup — before they have signatures from Curry and Durant on long-term deals. They will swallow normal-ish tax bills to hunt rings over the next two years.
“That’s what we want — to be contenders for years and years,” Thompson said. “So far, so good.”
13 June 2017 | 8:25 am
Source : ABC News
>>>Click Here To View Original Press Release>>>
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The Kings were right about Buddy Hield all along
![Tumblr media](https://64.media.tumblr.com/5639936d2c69a9b2068a4e4abbde3b95/d6ade9282fcd32ef-fa/s540x810/2a37f75646e3fa8291603cedd463e34d0a7f397f.jpg)
The Kings got a great deal on Buddy Hield.
Sacramento’s belief in Buddy Hield has paid off for both of them.
Two and a half years ago, the Sacramento Kings traded a lumbering post-up giant whose best days were behind him for a package that included one of the best high-volume shooters in the league.
Of course, that wasn’t how the deal looked at the time. DeMarcus Cousins was in the All-Star Game and hadn’t suffered a string of serious injuries that have kept him largely out of action in the last 18 months. Meanwhile, Buddy Hield was an old rookie struggling to shoot 40 percent from the field on a bad New Orleans team. I now remember greenlighting this headline without second thought just after the trade was consummated. It was the prevailing logic, one I shared.
Now, that deal looks like a masterstroke for the Kings. That’s even more obvious now that they’ve agreed to a four-year extension with Hield worth at least $86 million, according to multiple reports. Likely individual bonuses would bump it up to $94 million, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski, while more unlikely team-specific bonuses could bump it all the way up to $106 million.
Those numbers may seem high, but considering the season Hield had last year, the fact that the contract decreases over time, and the timely resolution to a potentially messy saga, this is a huge win for Sacramento. Over the weekend, Hield told the Sacramento Bee that the Kings’ early contract offer — reportedly four-year, $90 million, according to Yahoo! Sports’ Chris Haynes — was “an insult.” In the end, Hield signed an extension that guarantees less than that and is only likely to be $1 million more than that per season if he maintains his production. Those team incentives must’ve done the job.
Ultimately, the Kings couldn’t really afford to bungle this up. De’Aaron Fox is the young star of the future, but Hield was the Kings’ best offensive player last year. His spot-up shooting is just as essential to Sacramento’s fast break as Fox’s end-to-end speed with the ball. (Possibly more important, if you wanna get spicy). The two complement each other like peanut butter and jelly: Fox needs Hield to spread defenses out to charge up the middle, and Hield needs Fox’s ability to suck in the defense to launch his sweet stroke.
Outside of Stephen Curry, Hield is the best healthy high-volume three-point shooter in the league. He shot 43 percent on nearly eight a game last year, with a relatively even split (318 vs. 333) between the first nine seconds of the clock and the final 15 seconds. That shows he was far more than just a beneficiary of Fox: nearly 70 percent of his threes were assisted by someone else or nobody, and he generated just as many with a similar accuracy in half-court situations as he did in transition.
Still, Sacramento’s running style helped push Hield’s game to new heights. We always knew Hield could shoot the rock, but it was less clear whether he’d be able to generate enough deep attempts against NBA athletes to capitalize on that skill. Early attempts to use him coming off screens in New Orleans largely failed, since he hadn’t gained the elite shake necessary to free himself on the run. But the Kings’ extreme emphasis on running simplified Hield’s approach, thrusting him into the open floor where it would be harder for defenses to track him. Hield’s increase in three-point volume and overall usage rate largely came because he got many more shots like this in transition.
On its own, elite shooting in transition situations makes Hield worth the contract he now has. The Kings shattered recent league records for most shots taken early in the clock last year, and that number could even increase if they improve defensively and generate more running situations off misses. Hield is the team’s best transition three-point generator and one of the league’s best three-point converters in such situations. As the game speeds up, players will Hield’s skill set become more valuable, not less. That alone should offset any age-related decline that may come.
But this contract becomes an absolute bargain if Hield can continue to improve in half-court situations. Hield’s still not particularly adept at getting to the rim or drawing fouls, but his ball-handling has improved to the point where he can create his own shot against tougher defenders. He launched 246 off-the-dribble threes last year, a significant increase from his first two seasons, and limited his turnovers despite having the ball more often. His pick-and-roll game barely existed as a rookie, but now, Hield has become adept at pulling up against dropping big men.
Beating defenses mid-switch.
Or, using well-timed dribble moves to generate the very shots opponents don’t want him to take.
The next step is to do that in isolation situations as a marked man. Preseason has been encouraging: he’s scoring more unassisted buckets this season, albeit in a small sample. His stepback jumper looked like a promising weapon last year and I bet we see more of it this season.
I’m also encouraged that he’s testing his range: 33 percent of his looks have been from at least 25 feet this preseason, compared to about 26 percent during last year’s regular season. One-on-one shot creation will never be Hield’s biggest strength, but last year showed he can still hit a lot of threes even when the looks are tougher. As long as he keeps getting bushels of three-point shots up, he will be an elite offensive weapon, even without top-end burst or playmaking.
Hield doesn’t have Fox’s long-term upside, but in the near term, he’s just as important to the Kings’ success. Locking him up through his prime years was a no-brainer, and the Kings ultimately did just that at a number that should age well. This situation had a lot of potential to go sideways, and instead the Kings handled it deftly.
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Yu Darvish Makes The Cubs A Top-Tier Team Again
If Major League Baseball is in the age of the superteam, the Chicago Cubs are at least partially to blame. When they built their championship roster for 2016, the Cubs combined effective tanking with savvy offseason pickups to create one of the best baseball teams ever. But they were quickly succeeded by the Houston Astros, who won the following year using a very similar blueprint. Between the rise of the historically dominant Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers (who didn’t tank but mixed a great talent pipeline with outrageous spending) — to say nothing of the Cleveland Indians or New York Yankees — the Cubs were losing their cachet as a World Series frontrunner. They’d become victims of an era they helped touch off.
But Chicago took a big step in reversing that slide Saturday, inking starting pitcher Yu Darvish to a six-year deal worth $126 million. In doing so, the Cubs are climbing away from the no-man’s-land between the top contenders and the tankers, ensuring that Kris Bryant and Co.’s most cost-effective seasons are spent pursuing another championship.
Darvish remains one of the best pitchers in baseball, and he’s a major addition to the Cubs’ roster. Since Darvish came over to MLB from Japan as a 25-year-old, only 17 other pitchers have created more wins above replacement (two of his new teammates, Jon Lester and Jose Quintana, rank above him). Darvish has never been worth less than 3.5 WAR when he played a full season, and he contended for the Cy Young award in his first two years in the league.
His most recent few seasons have had their challenges. The Japanese sensation went down in 2014 with an injury that required Tommy John surgery, and the recovery period kept him out for the whole 2015 season. Then, amid concerns over whether he was tipping his pitches, Darvish put up the worst numbers of his career in ERA and fielding-independent pitching in 2017. And he struggled in his postseason stint with the Dodgers, posting two of his worst starts ever.
But that didn’t deter the Cubs from signing him — nor should it have. Setting small-sample-size concerns aside, Darvish was one of the best free agents available, and he projects as one of the top 20 starters in baseball. Acquiring him at the relatively paltry price of $21 million per year is one of the best bargains of the anemic 2018 offseason. For reference, FanGraphs projected going into the winter that Darvish would get a five- or six-year deal worth between $24 and $28 million per season. But thanks to one of the slowest free-agency periods in recent memory, Chicago ended up landing a top ace for much less money than anyone would have expected
Darvish complements a Cubs rotation that may become one of the best in the league again. According to FanGraphs’ projections, Chicago now has the third-best rotation in the game, trailing the first-place Dodgers by less than two WAR.1 That represents a big improvement over last season, when the Cubs’ starters had slipped to 10th in the majors in WAR. One of the keys to Chicago’s 2016 World Series run was having the third-best rotation in the game, but the next year saw an across-the-board drop-off in performance from the Cubs’ big four of Lester, Kyle Hendricks, Jake Arrieta2 and John Lackey, which played a large role in Chicago’s championship hangover. The additions of Darvish, Tyler Chatwood and 2017 trade-deadline pickup Quintana ought to help Cub pitching bounce back.
And perhaps most importantly, Darvish inches the Cubs back toward the top of the MLB heap, in addition to giving them a leg up in what looks like a tough division (which features two of the few teams that have made a lot of offseason noise, the St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers). Before the signing, Chicago was projected for 47.7 WAR by FanGraphs — not much more than the Cubs’ archrival Cardinals. After the deal, that number moved up to 50.1 WAR. It might not sound like much of a difference, but in baseball, incremental improvements can pay big dividends at the high end of the talent spectrum. Once a team’s projected win total reaches the mid-90s — and 50.1 WAR translates to about 98 wins over a full season — each additional win is worth nearly 1 extra percentage point of World Series probability.
The benefit could be even greater in a season like the one 2018 is shaping up to be. We gathered preseason win forecasts3 for each season since 2005, tracking how often teams were projected to finish with a given number of victories. From 2005 to 2017, an average of 17.4 of MLB’s 30 teams were predicted to win between 80 and 94 games each season, with 0.7 teams projected to post a better record and 11.9 projected to do worse. This season, however, only 12 teams are in that 80-to-94-win bucket, versus 4 teams above and 14 below. Baseball’s class of decent-but-not-great teams seems to have given way to clubs that are either going all-in or punting on the season entirely. In a season like this, that middle ground — where the Cubs were tracking to be — would be the worst place to find yourself.
But after signing Darvish, the Cubs officially moved closer to the front-running Astros and Dodgers in the projections than to the next tier of teams (which includes the Indians, Yankees, Nationals and Red Sox). They prevented themselves from being left behind in MLB’s superteam arms race, and they did it for a relatively cheap sum. Although the landscape of baseball has changed a lot since Chicago won it all in 2016, the 2018 version might bring back memories of that star-studded Cubs team.
from News About Sports https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/yu-darvish-makes-the-cubs-a-top-tier-team-again/
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Wichita State Is The Gonzaga Of The Midwest
If you’d have told people five years ago that the Wichita State men’s basketball team would be a national contender in 2017 with a chance to return to the Final Four, they’d have laughed you out of the room. The Shockers were stuck in the mid-major Missouri Valley Conference, which sent just one team to the tournament per year from 2008 to 2011, and had recently made only their second tournament appearance in the past 24 years. On a national level, the Shockers were more famous for their nightmare-fueling mascot: a bound bundle of wheat that wears a black turtleneck.
But as it turns out, the Shockers have been one of college basketball’s biggest surprises over the past five years, making the tournament every season and going all the way to the Final Four in 2013 as a No. 9 seed. This season, the Shockers are 6-1 after knocking off No. 16 Baylor on the road over the weekend, are ranked No. 6 in the AP Top 25 poll, and are frequently mentioned as favorites to make the Final Four.
It’s not unheard of for a mid-major to make noise in March. And there’s a reason we call these teams Cinderellas: They transform back to normal when the ball is over. Davidson largely drifted into obscurity after Steph Curry led the Wildcats to the Elite Eight as a No. 10 seed in 2008. And the Patriots of George Mason haven’t been relevant since they made the Final Four in 2006. The Shockers seem to be the exception, though — they are still wearing their fancy gowns well past midnight. In the past five years, Wichita State has become one of the nation’s premier teams and in the tournament has beaten basketball powerhouses Kansas, Arizona and Indiana.
There’s only one former Cinderella to pull a similar trick: the Gonzaga Bulldogs. Wichita State’s recent run — the most successful period in its history — is reminiscent of the path that Gonzaga took after it made its first Elite Eight in program history in 1999. Mark Few took over as head coach of the Bulldogs a season later, and since then, Gonzaga has regularly been among the game’s elite. It appears that Wichita State has joined it. According to the Elo ratings — which are a measure of a team’s quality that take into account factors such as margin of victory, game importance and game location — of all Division I teams excluding those from the top six conferences (the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Big East, Pac-12 and SEC), the Shockers have joined the Bulldogs among the elite mid-major teams in the nation.
One reason for their recent successes may be that they both have piled up the wins playing in relatively weak conferences. Like the Missouri Valley Conference, Gonzaga’s West Coast Conference typically only sends one or two teams to the tournament a year. So Wichita State and Gonzaga regularly faced off against the likes of Evansville and Pacific. But this season, Wichita has switched to the American Athletic Conference, which will dramatically improve the Shockers’ strength of schedule — the American is currently ranked No. 7 in conference strength, while the Missouri Valley is ranked No. 9, according to data compiled by Ken Pomeroy. This might not sound like much of an improvement, but when the NCAA’s selection committee chooses its field for the tournament, the Shockers’ chances of securing a top seed on a regular basis are likely to increase significantly.
There is one player who’s unsurprised by his alma mater’s recent success. In his four years at Wichita State, Fred VanVleet was twice named the Missouri Valley Conference player of the year and was the engine behind the team’s successful run. Now a member of the Toronto Raptors, VanVleet sat in the locker room at the TD Garden in Boston last month — after his team’s 95-94 loss to the Celtics — and reminisced about the momentum he helped create at Wichita State.
“We built that up to what it is,” VanVleet said. “Once you go to the Final Four once, that’s one of the highest things you can do. It’s starting to become regular ’round there.”
Even after VanVleet had achieved so much in the college game, the odds were against his making the jump to the NBA, because the league is dominated by players from blue bloods such as Kentucky and Duke. Raptors general manager Bobby Webster was aware of VanVleet’s success with the Shockers, but he said that it was his mental toughness that impressed him most — his ability to not get too high when things were going well and not too low when things turned south.1 In 2016, those intangibles earned VanVleet a contract with the Raptors after he went undrafted only a few weeks earlier. After playing just eight minutes a game in his rookie year, VanVleet has doubled his game time this season and currently leads the NBA in net efficiency rating.
Although the debate rages on between whether recruiting “one-and-done” or four-year players brings more success in the tournament, Wichita State coach Gregg Marshall has had little choice of which strategy to follow. Surrounded by the large college campuses of Kansas, Missouri and Oklahoma, Wichita State isn’t considered a college destination among the top high school recruits in the Midwest. That’s one reason why Marshall hasn’t landed a top-25 recruiting class (according to ESPN) since he’s become head coach of the Shockers. Instead, Marshall has banked on undervalued recruits and transfers. The lack of recruiting leverage was one of the reasons that had Marshall on the verge of leaving Wichita to join Alabama, a program with far more resources and a bigger name with which to recruit.
Marshall decided to stay, however, and has continued to find a way around his recruiting challenges. To keep his program among the game’s elite, he’s relied on developing players over several years, as opposed to leaning on the incoming crop of freshmen each season. According to data from Ken Pomeroy, Wichita State ranks No. 8 in the country in team experience (the average number of years a team’s players have been in the program) and 11th in the country in team continuity (how much of a team’s minutes are filled by returning players).
The Shockers benefit from keeping players for multiple years
Rankings in Ken Pomeroy’s experience and continuity metrics, for teams in the AP Top 25 poll, as of Week 5
KENPOM.COM RANK AP POLL TEAM EXPERIENCE CONTINUITY AVERAGE 1 Duke 350 340 345 2 Kansas 159 201 180 3 Michigan State 274 58 166 4 Villanova 300 132 216 5 Florida 147 246 197 6 Wichita State 8 11 10 7 Texas A&M 156 81 119 8 Kentucky 351 348 350 9 Notre Dame 72 91 82 10 Miami 290 37 164 11 North Carolina 222 241 232 12 Gonzaga 247 198 223 13 Xavier 154 57 106 14 Minnesota 128 25 77 15 Virginia 184 105 145 16 Arizona State 90 155 123 17 Cincinnati 215 98 157 18 West Virginia 231 240 236 19 Seton Hall 64 13 39 20 Texas Christian 84 28 56 21 Purdue 43 15 29 22 Nevada 50 262 156 23 Baylor 41 127 84 24 Tennessee 276 99 188 25 Southern California 92 10 51
Experience rankings are based on how many years a team’s players have been on the roster.
Continuity rankings are based on the percentage of a team’s minutes that are filled by players from the previous season’s roster.
Sources: KENPOM.COM, ASSOCIATED PRESS
This year’s team is led by seniors Zach Brown and Shaquille Morris, who have been stalwarts in the lineup for the past four years. Sophomore guard Landry Shamet was a preseason Blue Ribbon All-American and is next in line to take the reins. Yet, none of these players were sure things when they got to Wichita State, nor are they the type of players NBA teams line up to draft as teenagers. But the recruiting obstacles that the Shockers face might not mean anything as long as Marshall is at the helm.
“Recruiting is overrated,” VanVleet said. “We put so much stock on where kids are when they’re 15, 16, 17. You just gotta look for certain characteristics, and [Marshall] finds guys who work, who are tough.”
from News About Sports https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wichita-state-is-the-gonzaga-of-the-midwest/
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2017 NCAA Basketball Top 100
The top 100 college basketball players for the 2017 season, ranked
100. Tyus Battle, SO, G, Syracuse
With Taurean Thompson out of the fold, there’s no question that Battle will be Jim Boeheim’s best player in 2017-18. On a team without a great deal of offensive firepower, Battle could put up some massive numbers in ACC play.
99. Devin Sibley, SR, G, Furman
The reigning Southern Conference Player of the Year, Sibley averaged 17.7 points per game and shot 44.9 percent from beyond the arc last season. The Paladins are expecting even greater things from Sibley as a senior.
98. Quentin Snider, SR, G, Louisville
A starter since the end of his freshman season, Snider has improved steadily each season at Louisville. He’ll be the most experienced player and the rock on a team that has already faced more adversity off the court than it’s likely to see on it.
97. Mark Alstork, SR, G, Illinois
Arguably the highest-profile transfer on the market last offseason, Alstork averaged 19 points, 4.7 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game for Wright State last season. He took visits to Louisville and Georgetown and also considered South Carolina, Pitt and LSU before settling on the Illini.
96. Jaylen Hands, FR, G, UCLA
No, he isn’t Lonzo Ball, but Steve Alford doesn’t need him to be in order for UCLA to have a successful season. The 6’3” floor general is explosive both in terms of his first step and his vertical leaping ability.
95. Trae Young, FR, G, Oklahoma
Oklahoma took an enormous step back last season after Buddy Hield carried the Sooners to the Final Four in 2016. OU fans are optimistic that 2017-18 will be better, and Young is the main reason why. The McDonald’s All-American averaged 42.6 points per game as a high school senior at Norman North High School last year.
94. Chris Clemons, JR, G, Campbell
Clemons flirted briefly with jumping to the NBA after a sophomore season where he averaged 25.1 points per game, the fourth-highest total in Division-I. He was at his best in the Big South Tournament, averaging 37.6 points per game and dropping 51 in an upset win over UNC-Asheville.
93. Tres Tinkle, SO, F, Oregon State
If he can stay healthy, Tinkle has the potential to make the Beavers competitive in the Pac-12 again. He averaged 13.1 points and 5.4 rebounds as a freshman in 2015-16, but missed Oregon State’s first NCAA tournament appearance in 26 years because of a broken foot. Last season, Tinkle was averaging 20.2 points and 8.3 rebounds before a broken right wrist ended his campaign after just six games.
92. James Daniel III, SR, G, Tennessee
A graduate transfer from Howard, Daniel led the nation in scoring two seasons ago at 27.1 points per game. He’ll look to add some offensive firepower to a Tennessee squad that ranked 145th in the country in scoring last season.
91. Quade Green, FR, G, Kentucky
It’s no secret that point guard is the position that makes John Calipari’s teams go, but Green is more of a shooter than a slasher like John Wall or De’Aaron Fox. Regardless of style, if Green proves himself to be the next great UK floor general, then the Wildcats will once again be right in the national championship mix come March.
90. E.C. Matthews, SR, G, Rhode Island
Matthews averaged 14.3 points per game as a freshman all the way back in 2013-14, which makes it seem like he’s been around forever. His crowning college achievement to date came last season when he was named Most Outstanding Player of the Atlantic 10 Tournament after averaging 19.3 points and 5.7 rebounds to get the Rams into the Big Dance for the first time since 1999.
89. Kyle Guy, SO, G, Virginia
The man bun, aka the “Guy Bun,” is gone. In his second college season, Kyle Guy hopes he can go from the “guy with the weird hair who could score in streaks” to Virginia’s most complete player. He’s added 10 pounds to his frame and is hoping to make the same freshman-to-sophomore leap that guys like Malcolm Brogdon and Klay Thompson did under Tony Bennett.
88. Chandler Hutchison, SR, G, Boise State
A First Team All-Mountain West selection in 2016-17, Hutchison had six games where he scored at least 20 points and snagged at least 10 rebounds. He also became the first player in Boise State history to record 500 points, 200 rebounds and 75 assists in a single season.
87. Justin James, JR, G, Wyoming
James was the Mountain West's Sixth Man of the Year as a sophomore, averaging a team-high 16 points per game to go with five rebounds and 2.2 assists. He figures to be the unquestioned star of a Wyoming team that hopes to compete for a top tier finish in what should be a rejuvenated Mountain West.
86. Omari Spellman, FR, F, Villanova
A former five-star recruit, Spellman was forced to sit out the entire 2016-17 season after the NCAA ruled that he did not complete his initial eligibility requirements in time. The addition of the 6’9” power forward should give Jay Wright the elite inside presence his team desperately missed at times a year ago.
85. Chris Clarke, JR, F, Virginia Tech
With Zach LeDay and Seth Allen both graduated, the pressure will be on Chris Clarke to first get healthy, and second become a star. Clarke was the team’s leading rebounder (7.3 rpg) and third-leading scorer (11.4 ppg) when he tore his ACL in mid-February. The Hokies performance on the glass took a huge hit, and the team went just 5-4 after his injury. If Clarke is 100 percent for the duration of 2017-18, he should be an All-ACC performer.
84. Josh Okogie, SO, G, Georgia Tech
A Second Team preseason All-ACC honoree, Okogie was the leading scorer for the 2017 NIT runners-up, averaging 16.1 points per game. He will miss at least the team’s season-opening game against UCLA due to a suspension for receiving impermissible benefits totaling less than $750.
83. Markus Howard, SO, G, Marquette
Howard was the most accurate three-point shooter in the country last season, connecting on 54.0 percent of his attempts from beyond the arc. His goal as a sophomore is to prove to the rest of the Big East that he’s developed into more than just an outside assassin.
82. Andrew Jones, SO, G, Texas
Jones had an up-and-down freshman season, but begins his sophomore campaign as the only Longhorn returnee who averaged double-digit figures last year (11.4 ppg). Shaka Smart’s hope is that Jones joins forces with freshman big man Mo Bamba to form the most lethal inside-outside attack in the Big 12.
81. Jo Lual-Acuil, SR, F, Baylor
Acuil is a known commodity as a 7-foot defensive force. With Johnathan Motley gone, the big man’s offensive game is going to have to be dramatically improved in order for the Bears to avoid taking a dramatic step in the wrong direction.
80. Khyri Thomas, JR, G, Creighton
The Big East’s co-Defensive Player of the Year in 2017, Thomas did a little bit of everything for Creighton a year ago. He was the team’s most efficient offensive player after point guard Mo Watson’s season-ending injury, and in league play he ranked third in the Big East in assists (3.9 per game), sixth in rebounding (6.2), and eighth in steals (1.5).
79. Esa Ahmad, JR, F, West Virginia
Ahmad will be ineligible for the first semester of the season, dealing a huge blow to the Mountaineers’ chances of capably handling a tough non-conference slate. The power forward scored in double figures 20 times last season and was arguably the top defensive performer on one of the nation’s best defensive teams.
78. B.J. Johnson, SR, G, La Salle
Johnson flirted with making a leap to the NBA after a junior season where he led the Explorers in points (17.6 per game) and rebounds (6.3). He also became just the 30th player in school history to score 500 or more points in a single season.
77. Theo Pinson, SR, F, North Carolina
Known as much for his comic relief during press conferences as his on-court talents, Pinson is looking to finally emerge as a consistent (and healthy) offensive threat in his final collegiate season. He set career highs in points (6.1 per game), rebounds (4.6) and assists (3.7) last season, but shot just 38.1 percent from the field.
76. Jordan Caroline, JR, G, Nevada
An explosive athlete, Caroline averaged 15.0 points and 9.2 rebounds per game last season. The rebounding average was the second-best in the Mountain West. He was also named MVP of the Mountain West Tournament after helping the Wolfpack punch its first ticket to the Big Dance in a decade.
75. Shamorie Ponds, SO, G, St. John’s
A Big East All-Freshman team performer in 2016-17, Ponds averaged 17.4 points per game and hit double figures in all but three of St. John’s 33 games. If the Red Storm take a large step forward in year three under Chris Mullin, Ponds will likely be the biggest reason why.
74. J.P. Macura, SR, G, Xavier
Macura was the only player on an injury-ridden Xavier team to appear in all 38 games last season, and he was at his best when the lights were the brightest. The guard averaged 13 points, 4.8 rebounds and 3.3 assists during a surprise run to the Elite Eight that rescued what had been a disappointing campaign for the Musketeers.
73. Tyler Hall, JR, G, Montana State
One of the best-kept secrets in college basketball, Hall will have you up late trying to find streams for Big Sky Conference games this winter. In his sophomore season, the 6’4”, 175-pound point guard ranked seventh in the nation in scoring (23.1 points per game) and second in three-pointers made. He did this while shooting 42.9 percent from beyond the arc and turning the ball over an average of just 2.0 times per game.
72. Kyron Cartwright, SR, G, Providence
Cartwright proved to Friar fans last season that life would go on without Kris Dunn. He led the Big East with 6.7 assists per game (fourth nationally) while also chipping in 11.4 points per game.
71. Lonnie Walker, FR, G, Miami
The crown jewel of Miami’s top 10 recruiting class, Walker is likely the most hyped freshman to ever suit up and play for Jim Larranaga. He had surgery for a torn right meniscus in July, but was cleared to return to practice in mid-October.
70. De'Anthony Melton, SO, G, USC
Melton is a freak athlete who earned a starting spot as a freshman on a loaded USC team last season because of his defensive prowess. If he can develop a consistent jump shot in his sophomore season, he could find himself ready for the league in a few short months.
69. Kevin Hervey, SR, F, UT-Arlington
The Sun Belt Player of the Year in 2017, Hervey averaged 17.1 points and 8.5 rebounds per game while leading UT-Arlington to the conference’s regular season title. He’ll now look to end his college career with his first NCAA tournament appearance.
68. Quinndary Weatherspoon, JR, G, Mississippi State
Weatherspoon returns to Mississippi State after leading the team in scoring at 16.5 points per game last season. He’ll have backcourt help this year in the form of his younger brother, four-star recruit Nick.
67. Elijah Brown, SR, G, Oregon
Brown started his college career at Butler, spent the past two seasons at New Mexico, and will now wrap things up at Oregon. He averaged 18.8 points, 5.2 rebounds and 3.1 assists per game last season for the Lobos. Brown’s new task will be to lead the offensive charge for an Oregon team that lost a significant amount from last year’s Final Four squad.
66. Amir Coffey, SO, G, Minnesota
Coffey was Minnesota’s second-leading scorer (12.2 ppg) last season despite using only 19.2 percent of the team’s possessions, just the fifth-most on the team. Expect Richard Pitino to feature the sophomore guard more in 2017-18.
65. Jaren Jackson, FR, F, Michigan State
A versatile 5-star forward with a 7-foot-4 wingspan, Jackson can score from any spot on the floor. He should serve as the perfect accent to the bigger and stronger Miles Bridges.
64. Mikal Bridges, JR, G, Villanova
Bridges hasn’t averaged double figures in scoring in either of his first two college seasons, but he’s still widely viewed as the best NBA prospect on Jay Wright’s roster. The reason is because he’s a 6’6” freak who Wright recently referred to as the best defensive player he’s ever coached. If Bridges’ shot improved as much this offseason as it did after his freshman year, he will be a force for the Wildcats as a junior.
63. Bryant Crawford, JR, G, Wake Forest
One of the most underrated guards in the country, Crawford helped Wake Forest get back to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2010 last season. He also became the first Demon Deacon with 500 points and 150 assists in a single season since Randolph Childress in 1994-95.
62. Isaac Haas, SR, C, Purdue
Making room isn’t an easy thing for a 7’2”, 290-pound center to do. That’s the position Haas was forced into last season while sharing a frontcourt with consensus First Team All-American Caleb Swanigan. The loss of Biggie is a huge blow to Purdue as a team, but it figures to give Haas more room to operate on his own in the post.
61. Wendell Carter, FR, F, Duke
Outside of Jahlil Okafor, highly touted freshmen big men haven’t had a significant amount of success right out of the gates at Duke in recent years. The No. 5 overall player from the class of 2017 is more than talented enough to reverse that trend.
60. Jerome Robinson, JR, G, Boston College
Robinson might be the best player on a bad team in college basketball. His streak of eight straight games with 20 points or more last season was the longest of any major conference player in America.
59. Jordan McLaughlin, SR, G, USC
When McLaughlin arrived at USC, the Trojans had just wrapped up three seasons with a losing overall record and five straight with a sub-.500 record in Pac-12 play. Now he’s the senior captain of a squad that won a pair of NCAA tournament games last season and will start this year at No. 10 in the Associated Press preseason top 25.
58. Tyler Davis, JR, C, Texas A&M
The leader of what has become a veteran Aggie squad, Davis averaged 14.1 points and seven rebounds per game last year. He led the SEC and ranked 14th in the nation in field goal percentage at 62.9.
57. Gary Clark, SR, F, Cincinnati
For a second straight season, Clark came dangerously close to averaging a double-double, chipping in 10.8 points and a team-best 7.9 rebounds per game. The do-it-all forward has been referred to by Mick Cronin as “the type of player every coach wants to have.”
56. Thomas Welsh, SR, C, UCLA
College basketball’s king of the mid-range jumper, Welsh has showcased a new skill during UCLA’s preseason: a three-point shot. If he can knock it down consistently the Bruins will be able to spread the court and give their super-athletic guards more room to operate.
55. Markis McDuffie, JR, F, Wichita State
A First Team All-Missouri Valley performer in 2016-17, McDuffie became the first underclassmen in 23 years to lead Wichita State in both scoring and rebounding. He’ll miss the start of the season because of a stress fracture in his left foot, but figures to be back in time to help the Shockers compete for a conference title in their first year as a member of the AAC.
54. Justin Jackson, SO, F, Maryland
One of the top breakout sophomore candidates in the country, Jackson ranked second on Maryland’s team in scoring last season at 10.5 ppg. The 6’7” wing shot 43.8 percent from three last season, but has dedicated his offseason to becoming more of a threat off the dribble.
53. Malik Newman, SO, G, Kansas
There are few mysteries in college basketball this season greater than Newman. Two years ago, he was a highly touted five-star prospect who was expected to put up otherworldly numbers at Mississippi State. That didn’t happen, and now he’s at Kansas where he’s drawn rave reviews from head coach Bill Self since his arrival. How much in-season success those offseason performances translate into is what everyone is waiting to see.
52. Vince Edwards, SR, F, Purdue
With Caleb Swanigan now suiting up for the Portland Trail Blazers, Vince Edwards is now the top dog in West Lafayette. He’s also the only active player in Division-I with 1,000 career points, 500 rebounds, 300 assists and 100 made three-pointers.
51. Bryant McIntosh, SR, G, Northwestern
Everyone knows about the history Northwestern made last season, but now the expectations are even higher for 2017-18. That’s because Chris Collins returns nearly every major cog from that team, including McIntosh, who became the first player in NU history to lead the Big Ten in assists (5.4 in league play). He also chipped in 16.3 points per game during league play, seventh-best in the conference.
50. Johnathan Williams, SR, F, Gonzaga
Four of the five double-figure scorers from the Gonzaga team that made it all the way to the national title game are now gone. The lone returnee is Williams, who averaged 10.2 ppg and also led the team in rebounding (6.4 rpg). His presence is the biggest reason why Mark Few is once again fielding a top 20 squad.
49. Ben Lammers, SR, C, Georgia Tech
The ACC’s Defensive Player of the Year for 2016-17, Lammers was one of the country’s most improved players last season. Few players are more valuable to their respective teams than Lammers, who averaged 14.2 points and 9.2 rebounds per game (fourth in the ACC) last season while hitting 51.6 percent of his shots from the floor (fifth in the ACC).
48. Peyton Aldridge, SR, F, Davidson
He’s not quite Steph Curry, but it wouldn’t be shocking if Aldridge brought a national scoring title back to Davidson. He put up career bests across the board as a junior last season, including averages of 20.5 points and 8.5 rebounds per game. Bob McKillop’s team will go as far as Aldridge can carry them this season.
47. Rodney Bullock, SR, F, Providence
The 6’8” forward averaged 15.7 points and 6.4 rebounds per game last season, helping the Froars to their fourth straight NCAA tournament appearance.
46. Jeffrey Carroll, SR, G, Oklahoma State
Quietly last season, Carroll became just the fourth player in Big 12 history to finish in the top 10 in the league in scoring (17.5 ppg, third), rebounding (6.6 rpg, eighth) and three-point percentage (44.4 percent, third). The other three? Georges Niang (Iowa State, 2015-16), Jordan Hamilton (Texas, 2010-11) and Kevin Durant (Texas, 2006-07).
45. Jalen Adams, JR, G, Connecticut
Without much support a year ago, Adams led UConn in both points (14.4 ppg) and assists (6.1 apg). The return of a healthy Alterique Gilbert and Terry Larrier should force opposing defenses to not key entirely on Adams this season.
44. Troy Brown, FR, G, Oregon
Dana Altman is going from having one of the most experienced teams in the country to one loaded with fresh faces. The most hyped among those newcomers is Brown, the No. 13 player in the 2017 recruiting class according to Rivals. He and backcourt mate Elijah Brown figure to have green lights brighter than the Ducks’ road uniforms.
43. Nick Ward, SO, F, Michigan State
Miles Bridges wasn’t the only Spartan who put up numbers as a freshman but still decided to return to East Lansing. Despite playing fewer than 20 minutes per game, Ward still managed to average 13.9 points and 6.5 rebounds per game last season. He also ranked third in the Big Ten in field goal percentage at 59.2 percent.
42. Rawle Alkins, SO, G, Arizona
Alkins won’t see the court until December after breaking his foot in late September, but he still figures to play a major part in whatever success Arizona has this season. Alkins was a standout performer for the Wildcats as a freshman in 2016-17, averaging 10.9 ppg and 4.9 rpg.
41. Moritz Wagner, JR, F, Michigan
Michigan's leading returning scorer (12.1 points per game) and rebounder (4.2), Wagner emerged as a force for the Wolverines late last season. His most memorable performance came in the second round of the NCAA tournament when he hit 11 of 14 shots and scored a career-high 26 points in a 73-69 win over second-seeded Louisville.
40. KeVaughn Allen, JR, G, Florida
A year ago, Allen was the leading scorer (14.4 ppg) on a Florida team that came one win away from a trip to the Final Four. Now expectations in Gainesville are higher for both himself and the Gators.
39. Rob Gray, SR, G, Houston
Gray is a certified bucket-getter, leading the AAC in scoring last season at 20.6 points per game. He also shot 47.5 percent from the floor and led the Cougars in steals 1.2 per game.
38. Matt Farrell, SR, G, Notre Dame
Despite Demetrius Jackson’s early jump to the NBA, Notre Dame didn’t miss a step at the point guard position last season because of Farrell. The junior emerged from the shadows and helped lead the Fighting Irish to yet another top four finish in the ACC and a trip to the conference tournament title game.
37. Shake Milton, JR, G, SMU
Some in the Dallas area are calling this a “rebuilding season” for SMU. The preseason AAC Player of the Year doesn’t want to let those predictions come to fruition. Milton was sensational during the team’s summer trip to Canada, averaging 17.0 points, 3.7 rebounds, 2.0 steals and 1.7 assists in just 23.3 minutes per game.
36. Khadeen Carrington, SR, G, Seton Hall
Carrington led the Pirates and finished sixth in the Big East in scoring last season at 17.1 points per game. He’ll team up with big man Angel Delgado to headline the most anticipated season of Seton Hall basketball in quite some time.
35. Kelan Martin, SR, F, Butler
Martin was the leading scorer (16.0 ppg) and rebounder (5.8 rpg) on a Butler team that won 25 games and earned a No. 4 seed in the NCAA tournament. He’ll become an even stronger force for the Bulldogs this season if he’s able to pull his three-point percentage up from the 34.8 percent clip he fired at a year ago.
34. Nate Mason, SR, G, Minnesota
Mason was the top performer on a 2016-17 Minnesota team that was among the biggest overachievers in the country. He led the team in scoring (15.2 ppg), free-throw percentage (80.8 percent), assists (169), and steals (46).
33. Trevon Duvall, FR, G, Duke
Duke never lived up to its preseason hype last season in large part because it never discovered a true point guard. That doesn’t figure to be an issue in 2017-18 thanks to Mike Krzyzewki’s signing of Duvall. The five-star floor general was the top-ranked point guard in the 2017 class.
32. Jacob Evans, JR, G, Cincinnati
Evans figures to be the top offensive performer on what many are predicting to be the highest scoring and best overall team that Mick Cronin has fielded at Cincinnati. The 6’6” junior netted 13.5 ppg last season, best on the team.
31. Aaron Holiday, JR, G, UCLA
After playing third fiddle to Lonzo Ball and Bryce Alford last season, this would seem to be Holiday’s show. The junior is the leading returning scorer on a team that lost 72 percent of its offensive output from last season. If the Bruins want to have any hope of making it back to the second weekend of the NCAA tournament, Holiday has to develop into a First Team All-Pac-12 caliber performer.
30. Reid Travis, JR, F, Stanford
Travis led a sub-.500 Stanford squad in virtually every statistical category last season. He was also the only Pac-12 player to rank in the league’s top five for both scoring (17.4 ppg) and rebounding (8.9 rpg).
29. Chimezie Metu, JR, F, USC
After averaging 14.8 points. 7.8 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per game last season, Metu figures to once again be one of the fiercest post players in America. His numbers won’t shine the way they would for 99 percent of the other teams in America because USC has another one of best frontcourt players in college basketball.
28. Bennie Boatwright, JR, F, USC
Boatright missed 17 of USC’s first 22 games last season because of injury, but still managed to post season averages of 15.1 points and 4.5 rebounds per game. A 6’10” forward who can score from any spot on the floor, he might be the most versatile player on a Trojan team that’s chock full of them.
27. Hamidou Diallo, FR, G, Kentucky
This is the youngest Kentucky team of the John Calipari era, which is saying something. It’s so young that Diallo, who was with the team for the second half of the season but did not play in games, is viewed as a veteran leader despite technically being a freshman. The super athletic 6’5” guard will finally get to make his college debut on Nov. 10.
26. Deng Adel, JR, F, Louisville
With Donovan Mitchell now lighting up box scores for the Utah Jazz, Adel has to emerge as an effective go-to offensive performer for the Cardinals. He showed flashes of having the ability to do just that near the end of last season, averaging 16.2 ppg over Louisville’s final five contests.
25. Bruce Brown, SO, G, Miami
Brown is a strong candidate to take a large step forward after a solid freshman season where he averaged 11.8 points, 5.6 rebounds, 3.2 assists, and 1.5 steals per game. He also became just the second player in Miami history to record a triple-double.
24. Marcus Foster, SR, G, Creighton
Foster was a unanimous First Team All-Big East selection in his first season with the Bluejays, averaging a team-high 18.2 points per game. The transfer from Kansas State is a strong candidate to be the conference’s top scorer in 2017-18.
23. Jaylen Adams, SR, G, St. Bonaventure
Regardless of how the team performs, make some time to watch at least one Saint Bonaventure game this season. Adams, who posted averages of 20.6 points and 6.5 assists per game last year, will make it worth your while.
22. DeAndre Ayton, FR, C, Arizona
Ayton is one of the most naturally skilled centers college basketball has seen in some time. He spent the bulk of his early years being regarded as the top player in the 2017 class, but questions about his effort allowed others to surpass him heading into college. Those same questions are the only ones surrounding his potential to help take Sean Miller to his first Final Four.
21. Collin Sexton, FR, G, Alabama
A remarkably gifted scorer, Sexton should make Alabama one of the most entertaining teams to watch in college basketball this season. The likely one-and-done talent could also help the Tide win a game in the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2006.
20. Landry Shamet, SO, G, Wichita State
Like Wichita State’s other top performer, Markis McDuffie, Shamet has spent a solid chunk of the offseason sidelined by a foot injury. Once he’s back to 100 percent, the redshirt sophomore should be the best player on a Shockers team that could be good enough to compete for a national title.
19. Yante Maten, SR, F, Georgia
There’s been a lot of chatter this offseason about the NBA talent in the SEC, but not nearly enough sent in the direction of Maten. The 6’8” forward did all for Georgia in 2016-17, averaging 18.6 points and 6.8 rebounds per game. He missed four games late in the year because of a knee sprain, an injury which ultimately sealed the Dogs’ fate as an NIT team.
18. Jevon Carter, SR, G, West Virginia
Carter is the senior leader of a West Virginia team that will begin the 2017-18 season with a top 10 ranking in the USA Today coaches poll. He was the leading scorer on the Mountaineers’ Sweet 16 squad a year ago, averaging 13.5 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per game.
17. Mike Daum, JR, F, South Dakota State
In one year, Daum went from completely off the map to one of the nation’s most elite scorers (25.1 ppg). The 6’9” sharp-shooter dropped a season-high 51 on Fort Wayne last February and figures to put up more absurd numbers as a junior.
16. Robert Williams, SO, F, Texas A&M
Williams, a highly skilled 6’10” forward, stunned everyone last spring when he announced that he was bypassing the NBA Draft in favor of another season at Texas A&M. The potential lottery pick averaged 11.9 points and 8.2 rebounds as a freshman for the Aggies in 2016-17. He’ll miss the first two games of this season while serving a suspension for a violation of team policy.
15. Jock Landale, SR, C, Saint Mary’s
Arguably the most efficient big man in college basketball, Landale finished his junior season shooting 61.1 percent from the field while averaging 16.9 points and 9.5 rebounds per game. His numbers were stellar enough to earn a runner-up finish in Ken Pomeroy’s player of the year rankings.
14. Kevin Knox, FR, F, Kentucky
An explosive 6’8” forward who can do a little bit of everything, Knox will be Kentucky’s best player this season. He’ll be a matchup nightmare for every team on the Wildcats’ schedule.
13. Mohamed Bamba, FR, F, Texas
Perhaps the most interesting NBA prospect in the world, Bamba is the centerpiece of a Texas recruiting class that has Longhorn fans rejuvenated after a disappointing 11-22 campaign in 2016-17. The big man’s on-court talent and off-court personality could make him the Kevin Durant for a new generation of UT fans.
12. Angel Delgado, SR, C, Seton Hall
Delgado took a long time before deciding last spring to put the NBA on hold and return to South Orange for his senior season. The league seemed like a realistic option after he averaged 15.2 points and a Division I-best 13.2 rebounds per game as a junior. This season he hopes to show off more offensive versatility, including a more consistent mid-range jumper.
11. Trevon Bluiett, SR, G, Xavier
Twice a First Team All-Big East selection, Bluiett scored 20 points or more 19 times last season for the Musketeers. He was at his best during back-to-back NCAA tournament upsets of third-seeded Florida State and second-seeded Arizona, scoring 29 points against the Seminoles and 25 against the Wildcats.
10. Joel Berry II, SR, G, North Carolina
The Most Outstanding Player of the 2017 Final Four, Berry has already accomplished plenty in his college career. The final task will be to serve as the unquestioned leader and focal point of a North Carolina team looking to make a third straight trip to the national championship game.
9. Jalen Brunson, JR, G, Villanova
Josh Hart, Kris Jenkins and Darryl Reynolds are all gone, which means it’s officially time for The Jalen Brunson Show at Villanova. Not that the former five-star recruit wasn’t impressive even with a crowded backcourt. He averaged 14.7 points and 4.1 assists per game last season for a Wildcat team that went 32-4.
8. Ethan Happ, JR, F, Wisconsin
In 2016-17, the ultra-efficient Happ was the nation's only player to lead his team in points, rebounds, assists, blocks and steals during conference play. The challenge for Happ as a junior will be to keep posting those types of numbers with less of a supporting cast surrounding him.
7. Allonzo Trier, JR, G, Arizona
Trier would likely be a member of an NBA franchise right now had it not been for a suspension that forced him to miss the first 19 games of last season. He was terrific when he was eligible, averaging a team-best 17.2 points per game to go with 5.3 rebounds and 2.7 assists.
6. Devonte’ Graham, SR, G, Kansas
Graham wasn’t even a top 100 player when he signed with Kansas back in 2013. Now he enters his senior season as the preseason Big 12 Player of the Year, and has a chance to step into Frank Mason’s role as the Jayhawks’ leading scorer and a candidate for national Player of the Year.
5. Grayson Allen, SR, G, Duke
Allen might be the most nationally recognizable player that college basketball has seen in at least a decade. Unfortunately, that status isn’t due entirely to his on-court efforts. The controversial Dukie occupied the top spot on this list a year ago, but then experienced an individual season that was as much of a roller coaster ride as his team’s. If he can eliminate the tripping and the temper tantrums, he has an opportunity to be the leader and top performer on the best team in the country.
4. Marvin Bagley, FR, F, Duke
When Bagley announced over the summer that he was reclassifying to 2017 and signing with Duke, it all but assured that the Blue Devils would be the No. 1 team in both major preseason polls. Many people’s pick to be the first player selected in the 2018 NBA Draft, the 6’11” Bagley can do a little bit of everything. It might take some time for him to figure out exactly what his role is on Coach K’s loaded team, but once he does, look out.
3. Bonzie Colson, SR, F, Notre Dame
If the players on this list were being ranked on NBA potential, Colson wouldn’t be anywhere near the top. A 6’5” forward who basically serves as a center for the Fighting Irish, Colson’s remarkable production is hard to explain for anyone who hasn’t actually watched him play. Colson was the only player in the ACC to average a double-double (17.5 ppg, 10.2 rpg) last season — numbers that earned him Third Team AP All-American honors.
2. Michael Porter, JR, F, Missouri
Missouri basketball suddenly has life thanks mostly to the addition of Porter, the superstar recruit who spent most of last year as the top-ranked player in the 2017 class. Porter hopes to enjoy more college success than Ben Simmons and Markelle Fultz, top-rated recruits who signed with struggling power conference programs but failed to take their teams to the NCAA tournament. Porter is probably fine with mimicking where those guys wound up being selected in the NBA Draft, though.
1. Miles Bridges, SO, F, Michigan State
As a freshman in 2016-17, Bridges put up absurd numbers after getting back to 100 percent following an ankle injury that forced him to miss the entire month of December. He shocked everyone in the spring by announcing that he was returning to Michigan State for one more season. Don’t be surprised if Bridges has a sophomore season that reminds fans of the one Blake Griffin had at Oklahoma almost a decade ago.
JUST MISSED:
Jaylen Fisher, SO, G, TCU
Donte DiVincenzo, SO, F, Villanova
Mustapha Heron, SO, G, Auburn
Carsen Edwards, SO, G, Purdue
Alize Johnson, SR, F, Missouri State
Cassius Winston, SO, G, Michigan State
Manu Lecomte, SR, G, Baylor
Matt Mobley, SR, G, St. Bonaventure
DeAndre Burnett, SR, G, Ole Miss
Rui Hachimura, SO, F, Gonzaga
P.J. Washington, FR, F, Kentucky
T.J. Haws, SO, G, BYU
Brandon McCoy, FR, F, UNLV
Tra Holder, SR, G, Arizona State
Jae’Sean Tate, SR, F, Ohio State
Matthew Fisher-Davis, SR, G, Vanderbilt
Kevin Huerter, SO, G, Maryland
Gary Trent Jr., FR, G, Duke
Giddy Potts, SR, G, Middle Tennessee
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