#Politico Magazine

[justinspoliticalcorner]

Aslı Aydıntaşbaş for Politico Magazine:

American democracy is about to undergo a serious stress test. I know how it feels, in part because I lived through the slow and steady march of state capture as a journalist working in Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Turkey. Over a decade as a high-profile journalist, I covered Turkey’s descent into illiberalism, having to engage in the daily push and pull with the government. I know how self-censorship starts in small ways but then creeps into operations on a daily basis. I am familiar with the rhythms of the battle to reshape the media, state institutions and the judiciary. Having lived through it, and having gathered some lessons in hindsight, I believe that there are strategies that can help Democrats and Trump critics not only survive the coming four years, but come out stronger. Here are six of them.

1. Don’t Panic — Autocracy Takes Time

President-elect Donald Trump’s return to power is unnerving but, as I have argued previously, America will not turn into a dictatorship overnight — or in four years. Even the most determined strongmen face internal hurdles, from the bureaucracy to the media and the courts. It took Erdoğan well over a decade to fully consolidate his power. Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Poland’s Law and Justice Party needed years to erode democratic norms and fortify their grip on state institutions.

I am not suggesting that the United States is immune to these patterns, but it’s important to remember that its decentralized system of governance — the network of state and local governments — offers enormous resilience. Federal judges serve lifetime appointments, states and governors have specific powers separate from those granted federally, there are local legislatures, and the media has the First Amendment as a shield, reinforced by over a century of legal precedents. Sure, there are dangers, including by a Supreme Court that might grant great deference to the president. But in the end, Donald Trump really only has two years to try to execute state capture. Legal battles, congressional pushback, market forces, midterm elections in 2026 and internal Republican dissent will slow him down and restrain him. The bottom line is that the U.S. is too decentralized in its governance system for a complete takeover. The Orbánization of America is not an imminent threat.

2. Don’t Disengage — Stay Connected

[...]

Nothing is more meaningful than being part of a struggle for democracy. That’s why millions of Turks turned out to the polls and gave the opposition a historic victory in local governments across Turkey earlier this year. That’s how the Poles organized a winning coalition to vote out the conservative Law and Justice Party last year. It can happen here, too. The answer to political defeat is not to disconnect, but to organize. You can take a couple of days or weeks off, commiserate with friends and mute Elon Musk on X — or erase the app altogether. But in the end, the best way to develop emotional resilience is greater engagement.

[...]

4. Charismatic Leadership Is a Non-Negotiable

One lesson from Turkey and Hungary is clear: You will lose if you don’t find a captivating leader, as was the case in 2023 general elections in Turkey and in 2022 in Hungary. Coalition-building or economic messaging is necessary and good. But it is not enough. You need charisma to mobilize social dissent. [...]

Last year’s elections in Poland and Turkey showcased how populist incumbents can be defeated (or not defeated, as in general elections in Turkey in 2023) depending on the opposition’s ability to unite around compelling candidates who resonate with voters. Voters seek authenticity and a connection — give it to them.

5. Skip the Protests and Identity Politics

Soon, Trump opponents will shake off the doldrums and start organizing an opposition campaign. But how they do it matters. For the longest time in Turkey, the opposition made the mistake of relying too much on holding street demonstrations and promoting secularism, Turkey’s version of identity politics, which speaks to the urban professional and middle class but not beyond. [...]

6. Have Hope

Nothing lasts forever and the U.S. is not the only part of the world that faces threats to democracy — and Americans are no different than the French, the Turks or Hungarians when it comes to the appeal of the far right. But in a country with a strong, decentralized system of government and with a long-standing tradition of free speech, the rule of law should be far more resilient than anywhere in the world. Trump’s return to power certainly poses challenges to U.S. democracy. But he will make mistakes and overplay his hand — at home and abroad. America will survive the next four years if Democrats pick themselves up and start learning from the successes of opponents of autocracy across the globe.

Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, who had first-hand experience with Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s authoritarianism in her native Turkey as a journalist, wrote in Politico Magazine on how to effectively fight Donald Trump’s authoritarian impulses.

[kyreniacommentator]

Straw: “We should never have let South Cyprus join the EU”

Former British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw stated that by allowing the Greek Cypriot administration to join the EU as a member, the EU effectively presided over the frozen conflict. Straw criticized the accession of the South Cyprus to the EU in his article titled ‘We should never have let South Cyprus join the EU’ published in the US-based Politico magazine. Continue reading Untitled

[typeandcompany]

Politico cover.

[time-being]

Source:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/10/16/kamala-harris-israel-gaza-lebanon/

The headline says: "Israel complicates election’s final stretch, an issue Democrats hoped would fade"

The sub-hed continues: "Benjamin Netanyahu’s escalating assaults in Gaza and Lebanon have become a growing vulnerability for Kamala Harris amid her bid for the presidency."

But the framing makes no sense. Why did Democrats expect this issue to fade?

Towards the end of the article, we have this:

But Biden and his top advisers agreed with Netanyahu’s premise that the weakening of Hezbollah could be exploited to reshape Lebanon’s politics and appoint a new president. A limited incursion was backed by Blinken, Hochstein, Austin, Middle East coordinator Brett McGurk and White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan, said officials familiar with the matter.

Biden and all his top advisors, including Lloyd Austin, Tony Blinken, and Trump superfan/Iraq puppet government operator Brett McGurk approved an invasion this month.

Again, why did Democrats think this issue would go away? They signed off on an invasion, attempting to install a puppet government in Lebanon, a couple of weeks ago. Invasions don't go away in a hurry.

Earlier in the article, even the Washington Post puts it in perspective:

Michigan has 300,000 people from the SWANA region and they strongly disapprove of the genocide and the Biden/Harris genocide and invasion strategy. This is not fresh news.

Politico reported on this in November 2023: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/11/11/biden-israel-michigan-support-00125320

You can find it in Vox in February of 2024: https://www.vox.com/politics/2024/2/27/24084168/michigan-gaza-primary-biden-ceasefire-arabs

This is political malpractice, in addition to being murderous policy.

It's like they're trying to lose.

[simply-ivanka]

Time Magazine to Name Trump 'Person of the Year': Politico | Newsmax.com

https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/time-trump-person/2024/12/11/id/1191293/

[republicansaredomesticterrorists]

“Trump’s goal this time is to remake the American government to enhance his power,” Scheiring warns in a new piece for Politico Magazine. “He isn’t the first modern right-wing populist to attempt this — he is following a playbook pioneered by Viktor Orbán.”

When Orbán came to power in 2010, some of his first acts took aim at the independence of Hungary’s judiciary and news media. Orbán rewrote the country’s constitution to force senior judges to retire and set up a new court system overseen directly by his government. He consolidated control over the media. According to experts, 90% of all media in Hungary is now directly or indirectly controlled by Fidesz, Orbán’s party.

Orbán and his allies have also tightened their grip over Hungary’s electoral system. They’ve changed laws to rig the system in his favor and keep him in power in perpetuity.

Much like the American right, Orbán has gone out of his way to stoke division by spreading fear about racial diversity and demonizing immigrants. He’s even embraced the far-right concept of “replacement theory” and warned against “race mixing” in Europe. Orbán has blocked asylum-seekers from entering Hungary and referred to Middle Eastern refugees as “Muslim invaders.”

He’s offered tax breaks and subsidies to boost the Hungarian birth rate for a future without immigration. Orbán and his party have also passed laws prioritizing “patriotic” education, tightened control over Hungary’s state universities and passed laws banning LGBTQ+ content in schools and on children’s television.

Sound familiar?

[somerabbitholes]

Hey, Do you have any foreign policy reading recommendations?

Here are a few. Since I don't know what exactly you're looking for and foreign policy is huge, I've tried to go with a diverse bunch

The Revenge of Geography by Robert D. Kaplan: about what geography can tell us about conflicts and possible directions that international politics would take; really good analysis, really good starting point to learn how to think about geopolitics. You can check out his other books too, he's quite good

Prisoners of Geography by Tim Marshall: more on what the map and geography tells us about global diplomacy and international politics

Belt and Road by Bruno Macaes: about the Belt and Road project and the kind of international order it and China through the project envisions; the politics of the project

The Chip War by Chris Miller: it's a history of semiconductors and through them, about global supply chains and industrial manufacturing circuits and how geopolitics and foreign policy impacts industry/business

The Blood Telegram by Gary J Bass: about US involvement in South Asia during the Cold War and particularly how it shaped politics between India, Pakistan and China

War by Margaret MacMillan: not strictly foreign policy, but it is about the place of war in history and politics

I'd also just recommend reading magazines and news and reporting about international politics; it's always more timely and easier to get the hang of. You can check out Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Politico, Carnegie Endowment, Lowy Institute to start with; most of them also have podcasts

[mariacallous]

Election Day is Tuesday. And while plenty of politicos and pundits are out there predicting what will happen, the reality is that … nobody knows. The polls are super close, nationally and in the swing states. Forecasting models see the race as a coin flip.

But you can spot some clear storylines that say a lot about how the two presidential campaigns have unfolded so far, and that might even help explain the outcome after the fact. One of those storylines is the determination and enthusiasm of women who back Democrat Kamala Harris, including women who might be afraid to say so publicly because their husbands support Republican Donald Trump.

I first heard about this last week, in Michigan, while covering a campaign event for Democratic Senate candidate Elissa Slotkin. Slotkin said canvassers were reporting stops at houses with large Trump signs, where women would answer and ― when asked which candidate they were supporting ― would quietly point to a photo of Harris on the canvassers’ campaign literature.

Slotkin went on to say she’d been hearing of an organic campaign to put notes in bathroom stalls, reminding women that their votes are confidential and that they should vote like their daughters’ lives depend on it.

It all sounded a little apocryphal. But it turns out that there really is a sticker and sticky note campaign, and it has been underway for at least several weeks, as Ms. Magazine and then NBC News reported in September.

And though the movement appears to have started on its own and spread over social media, lately the underlying sentiment has been getting high-profile support from figures like former first lady Michelle Obama, who in a recent Harris campaign appearance said, “If you are a woman who lives in a household of men that don’t listen to you or value your opinion, just remember that your vote is a private matter.”

Are there enough hidden votes to change who wins a state? Probably not. But the emotional fuel for it, the determination of so many women to elect Harris over Trump, absolutely could prove decisive.

If that happens, it would be one of the more ironic twists in modern political history ― and one of the more fitting ones, too ― because a campaign pitting men against women is exactly the campaign Trump and his advisers wanted.

The Boys vs. Girls Election

It’s no secret that this year’s gender gap is shaping up to be the largest in memory, with polls showing men favoring Trump by double digits, and women favoring Harris by a similar margin. In many ways, that gap was preordained not because of who’s on the ballot, but what’s at stake ― the future of reproductive freedom, and one side that’s actively pushing to regress back toward restrictive gender roles and limited rights.

But instead of trying to counter that, Trump has leaned in.

On the eve of this summer’s Republican National Convention, even before President Joe Biden dropped his reelection bid and Harris became their party’s nominee, Trump campaign officials boasted about how they were hoping to create what Axios called a “boys vs. girls election,” with ”Donald Trump’s chest-beating macho appeals vs. Joe Biden’s softer, reproductive-rights-dominated, all-gender inclusivity.”

So powerful was this appeal, Trump’s campaign managers told The Atlantic’s Tim Alberta, that Trump would manage to peel off some of the Black and Hispanic men who would traditionally vote Democratic, enough to offset losses among women. “For every Karen we lose, we’re going to win a Jamal and an Enrique,” one Trump ally had previously told Alberta.

The Trump campaign has unfolded just as his team promised ― which helps explain why, for example, Trump has spent the final weeks before the election appearing alongside former Fox News host Tucker Carlson (who recently suggested that the country needed Trump to be a “dad” who would deliver a “spanking”) while sidelining former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (who has been popular with independent female voters).

And the strategy may very well work. Polls have shown Harris struggling to hit the margins among Black and (especially) Hispanic men that previous Democrats have.

But the Trump gambit depends on winning over more men faster than he alienates women. And that’s hardly a safe bet. In just the last few years, the gender gap has been increasing at a faster pace than before, as my colleague Lilli Petersen explained recently.

Part of the reason for this shift is the Republican Party’s assault on reproductive freedom, culminating in the Supreme Court’s 2022 ruling striking down its 1973 Roe v. Wade decision and the enactment of abortion bans in multiple states. Trump has bragged about appointing the justices who made that ruling possible.

Trump, by all accounts, has come to understand that abortion is a political liability. That’s why over the past year he has, on occasion, suggested that some of the state bans go too far — or promised to protect access to in vitro fertilization, something at risk under abortion bans because it can involve the destruction of embryos. But with Trump being Trump, he’s been inconsistent and vague about what he would or wouldn’t support when it comes to reproductive rights.

And that’s not to mention the message his campaign has been sending about forcing adherence to traditional gender roles, in part with Trump’s selection of Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his running mate. Vance’s past includes statements that women without children are ��childless cat ladies” who have too much influence in politics, as well as suggestions that the sexual revolution made it too easy for women to leave bad marriages. After these comments came to light, Vance doubled down — essentially apologizing to cats, but not women.

A campaign determined to win over more women would have made a serious effort to walk back these statements, starting with an apology. Vance never offered one, and neither did Trump.

The Backlash And Its Potential

How is this all shaking out?

Overall, according to a recent Politico analysis, women are accounting for 55% of the early vote across battleground states. And in Pennsylvania, a state that many strategists consider the most important for each candidate, data suggests that early voting includes a relatively high proportion of Democratic women who did not vote there in 2020.

Early voting is a notoriously unreliable predictor of outcomes, for the simple reason that the data about who is voting doesn’t say that much about how they are voting, especially in an environment without solid baselines for comparison. Early voting did not become particularly widespread until 2020, in the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic and with Trump advising his supporters not to vote by mail. (This year, he’s generally encouraged them to vote early if they can.)

But women are a larger proportion of the population and, historically, they have voted at higher rates too. Last month, political scientist and Brookings senior fellow Elaine Kamarck ran the numbers on different scenarios to see what would happen if women came out to vote in the same proportion as in 2020, given the latest polling numbers available. She found Harris would win Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — enough to win the election.

The underlying polling numbers are now a month old, plus there’s no way to know how accurate they were. And a significant increase in turnout among men could easily elect Trump, Kamarck went out of her way to note. But, she concluded, “if women’s turnout stays the same as in 2020, it could be a good year for Harris; if it increases, it could be a very good year for her.”

That’s why the intensity of Harris’ support among women is so important, and why I reached out to Nikki Sapiro Vinckier, a Democratic activist in the northern Detroit suburbs.

Sapiro Vinckier, 36, is an OB-GYN physician’s assistant and abortion-rights advocate. She’d volunteered for Democratic campaigns before, but after watching Trump’s 2024 campaign unfold ― and then seeing Harris become the Democratic nominee ― she started making her own lawn signs and, more recently, stickers that she’s distributing locally and through social media.

The stickers say: “Ladies, no one will know who you vote for. Vote for your daughters, your sisters, yourself. Vote Kamala.” Sapiro Vinckier told me she has already ordered more than 30,000 stickers and is on her way to distributing all of them.

Sapiro Vinckier said she knows she’s not the only one getting so involved. “You have women who are coming out in tremendous numbers to vote, but you also have women coming out in incredible numbers to organize,” she said.

There’s no way to know if Harris will end up prevailing. But if she does, stories like Sapiro Vinckier’s will probably be a big reason why.

[misfitwashere]

Trump will overplay his hand. Be ready for when he does. 

ROBERT REICH

JAN 2

Friends,

I sometimes share with you perspectives about what we’re up against from non-American writers and journalists. Asli Aydintasbas, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington D.C. and a former journalist, published this short essay recently in Politico Magazine. As we prepare for Trump’s regime, I thought you’d find her views useful.

***

American democracy is about to undergo a serious stress test. I know how it feels, in part because I lived through the slow and steady march of state capture as a journalist working in Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Turkey.

Over a decade as a high-profile journalist, I covered Turkey’s descent into illiberalism, having to engage in the daily push and pull with the government. I know how self-censorship starts in small ways but then creeps into operations on a daily basis. I am familiar with the rhythms of the battle to reshape the media, state institutions and the judiciary.

Having lived through it, and having gathered some lessons in hindsight, I believe that there are strategies that can help Democrats and Trump critics not only survive the coming four years, but come out stronger. Here are six of them.

1. Don’t Panic — Autocracy Takes Time

President-elect Donald Trump’s return to power is unnerving but America will not turn into a dictatorship overnight — or in four years. Even the most determined strongmen face internal hurdles, from the bureaucracy to the media and the courts. It took Erdoğan well over a decade to fully consolidate his power. Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Poland’s Law and Justice Party needed years to erode democratic norms and fortify their grip on state institutions.

I am not suggesting that the United States is immune to these patterns, but it’s important to remember that its decentralized system of governance — the network of state and local governments — offers enormous resilience. Federal judges serve lifetime appointments, states and governors have specific powers separate from those granted federally, there are local legislatures, and the media has the First Amendment as a shield, reinforced by over a century of legal precedents. 

Sure, there are dangers, including by a Supreme Court that might grant great deference to the president. But in the end, Donald Trump really only has two years to try to execute state capture. Legal battles, congressional pushback, market forces, midterm elections in 2026 and internal Republican dissent will slow him down and restrain him. The bottom line is that the U.S. is too decentralized in its governance system for a complete takeover. The Orbanization of America is not an imminent threat.

2. Don’t Disengage — Stay Connected

After a stunning electoral loss like this, there’s a natural impulse to shut off the news, log off social media and withdraw from public life. I’ve seen this with friends in Turkey and Hungary with opposition supporters retreating in disillusionment after Erdogan’s or Orbam’s victories. Understandably, people want to turn inwards.

Dancing, travel, meditation, book clubs — it’s all fine. But eventually, in Poland, Hungary and Turkey, opponents of autocracy have returned to the fight, driven by a belief in the possibility of change. So will Americans.

Nothing is more meaningful than being part of a struggle for democracy. That’s why millions of Turks turned out to the polls and gave the opposition a historic victory in local governments across Turkey earlier this year. That’s how the Poles organized a winning coalition to vote out the conservative Law and Justice Party last year. It can happen here, too.

The answer to political defeat is not to disconnect, but to organize. You can take a couple of days or weeks off, commiserate with friends and mute Elon Musk on X — or erase the app altogether. But in the end, the best way to develop emotional resilience is greater engagement.

3. Don’t Fear the Infighting

Donald Trump’s victory has understandably triggered infighting inside the Democratic Party and it looks ugly. But fear not. These recriminations and finger-pointing are necessary to move forward. In Turkey, Hungary and Poland, it was only after the opposition parties faced their strategic and ideological misalignment with society that they were able to begin to effectively fight back.

Trump has tapped into the widespread belief that the economic order, labor-capital relations, housing and the immigration system are broken. You may think he is a hypocrite, but there is no doubt that he has convinced a large cross-section of American society that he is actually the agent of change — a spokesman for their interests as opposed to “Democratic elites.” This is exactly what strongmen like Erdoğan and Orban have achieved.

For the Democratic Party to redefine itself as a force for change, and not just as the custodian of the status quo, it needs fundamental shifts in how it relates to working people in the U.S. There is time to do so before the midterms of 2026.

4. Charismatic Leadership Is a Non-Negotiable

One lesson from Turkey and Hungary is clear: You will lose if you don’t find a captivating leader, as was the case in 2023 general elections in Turkey and in 2022 in Hungary. Coalition-building or economic messaging is necessary and good. But it is not enough. You need charisma to mobilize social dissent.

Trump was beatable in this election, but only with a more captivating candidate. For Democrats, the mistake after smartly pushing aside President Joe Biden was bypassing the primaries and handpicking a candidate. Future success for the party will hinge on identifying a candidate who can better connect with voters and channel their aspirations. It should not be too hard in a country of 350 million.

Last year’s elections in Poland and Turkey showcased how incumbents can be defeated (or not defeated, as in general elections in Turkey in 2023) depending on the opposition’s ability to unite around compelling candidates who resonate with voters. Voters seek authenticity and a connection — give it to them.

5. Skip the Protests and Identity Politics

Soon, Trump opponents will shake off the doldrums and start organizing an opposition campaign. But how they do it matters. For the longest time in Turkey, the opposition made the mistake of relying too much on holding street demonstrations and promoting secularism, Turkey’s version of identity politics, which speaks to the urban professional and middle class but not beyond. When Erdoğan finally lost his absolute predominance in Turkish politics in 2024, it was largely because of his mismanagement of the economy and the opposition’s growing competence in that area.

Trump’s appeal transcends traditional divides of race, gender and class. He has formed a new Republican coalition and to counteract this. Democrats too, must broaden their tent, even if means trying to appeal to conservatives on some issues. Opposition over the next four years must be strategic and broad-based. 

Street protests and calls to defend democracy may be inspirational, but they repel conservatives and suburban America. Any grassroots action must be coupled with a clear, relatable economic message and showcase the leadership potential of Democratic mayors and governors. Identity politics alone won’t do it.

6. Have Hope

Nothing lasts forever and the U.S. is not the only part of the world that faces threats to democracy — and Americans are no different than the French, the Turks or Hungarians when it comes to the appeal of the far right. But in a country with a strong, decentralized system of government and with a long-standing tradition of free speech, the rule of law should be far more resilient than anywhere in the world.

Trump’s return to power certainly poses challenges to U.S. democracy. But he will make mistakes and overplay his hand — at home and abroad. America will survive the next four years if Democrats pick themselves up and start learning from the successes of opponents of autocracy across the globe.

[evidence-based-activism]

did you see the New York Times article with Biden and Trump’s heads photoshopped onto half naked bodies on weighing scales. I thought body shaming is bad? Imagine if it was Kamala or another female politician who had this done to them. If it’s wrong for women it’s wrong for men

Quick notes:

No, I had not.

It wasn't the New York Times it was the cover of New York magazine’s Health Issue (from July).

The photo illustration was by Martin Schoeller and the source images were from Seth Wenig and Mandel Ngan. In other words, men. Men made the image.

I personally find the illustration to be in poor taste. But that's pretty much a standard for political cartoons (vaguely offensive and poorly done).

Calling Harris by her first name while referring to Biden and Trump (and all the other male politicians) by their last names is sexist. You're demonstrating less respect for her as a professional.

---

My main point:

I don't need to "imagine" this being done to female politicians, because they are already facing something significantly worse: deepfake pornography. In fact, "ninety-six percent of deepfakes online depict women in non-consensual pornography" [1]. For example, a recent British investigation found "found evidence of over 400 instances of digitally altered deepfake pornography of more than 30 high-profile UK politicians" [2], all of whom were women.

Importantly, there is substantial evidence that this form of harassment is impacting women's ability to continue in their line of work [1].

So, that magazine cover was in poor taste, but it's also not impacting their (or any other man's) ability to continue in their line of work. It's not pornographic or even remotely sexualized. (I think you'd even have a hard time arguing it's objectifying – that is, reducing them to objects.) Notably, I've never seen a photo-shopped image of a woman in her underwear that wasn't explicitly sexualized.

In addition, please see this post for evidence that women face more issues concerning body image and sexualization/objectification in the media.

---

As an additional, important note: nonsexual deepfakes are also an increasing concern [3], such as the fake campaign ads and photos being passed off as real (e.g., the recent one of Harris spread by Musk). Please do not blindly trust any videos or photographs without some verification.

References under the cut:

Shukla, Vandinika. “Deepfakes and Elections: The Risk to Women’s Political Participation | TechPolicy.Press.” Tech Policy Press, 29 Feb. 2024, https://techpolicy.press/deepfakes-and-elections-the-risk-to-womens-political-participation.

Politico. (2024, July 2). How deepfakes could upend 2024's elections. Politico. https://www.politico.com/newsletters/politico-nightly/2024/07/02/how-deepfakes-could-upend-2024s-elections-00166347

Floreani, Samantha. “From Politics to Porn: Will 2024 Be the Year in Which Deepfake Fears Finally Become Real?” The Guardian, 25 July 2024. The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jul/25/ai-celebrity-deepfakes-generative-chatgpt-impact-politics-future.

[usafphantom2]

The Netherlands authorizes Ukraine to use donated F-16 fighters to attack targets in Russia

Dutch politicians follow the same decision made by Denmark on the use of the F-16 for attacks within Russian territory.

Fernando Valduga By Fernando Valduga 06/04/2024 - 08:00 in Military, War Zones

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The Netherlands announced that it will allow the Ukrainian Air Force to use the 24 F-16 fighters it will receive by donation to be used in attacks against targets within Russian territory.

The Dutch Minister of Defense, Kajsa Ollongren, confirmed that the Netherlands will not impose limitations on the use of F-16 jets. This decision marks a divergence from Belgium's policy, which limits the use of its donated F-16s.

In an interview with the newspaper Politico at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Ollongren said: "There is no [a restriction to the Belgian style]. We are putting into practice the same principle that we apply to all other supplies of capacity, that is, once it is delivered to Ukraine, it is theirs to use." She added that the Netherlands only asks Ukraine to comply with international law and the right to self-defense, as established in the United Nations Charter, ensuring that the jets are used to achieve Ukraine's military objectives in self-defense.

Ollongren and U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin were among the senior officials who met with the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, at the Singapore conference. Denmark also approved Ukraine's use of F-16s provided by Denmark against military targets on Russian soil. Germany has also indicated that Ukraine can use weapons provided by the West for its defense.

Recently, the U.S. authorized Ukraine to attack Russian territory near Kharkiv using U.S.-suplied weapons, confirmed by President Zelensky's spokesman, Serhii Nykyforov, on May 31. However, Washington continues to restrict the use of long-range weapons for deeper attacks within Russia. President Zelensky has expressed interest in using long-range weapons, such as British-made Storm Shadow missiles, but the United Kingdom has not yet fully authorized their use, possibly awaiting a clear position from the White House. The issue has been discussed twice with UK authorities, but remains dependent on a broader international consensus, particularly the US position.

Tags: Military AviationF-16 Fighting FalconUkraine Air ForceRNLAF - Royal Netherlands Air Force / Royal Dutch Air ForceWar Zones - Russia/Ukraine

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Fernando Valduga

Fernando Valduga

Aviation photographer and pilot since 1992, he has participated in several events and air operations, such as Cruzex, AirVenture, Dayton Airshow and FIDAE. He has works published in specialized aviation magazines in Brazil and abroad. He uses Canon equipment during his photographic work in the world of aviation.

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[justinspoliticalcorner]

Gábor Scheiring for Politico Magazine:

Many believed that after his first term as president, Donald Trump would end up in the dustbin of history. Now Trump is back, and the United States is about to be ruled for the second time by a right-wing populist. Trump’s goal this time is to remake the American government to enhance his power. He isn’t the first modern right-wing populist to attempt this — he is following a playbook pioneered by Hungary’s Viktor Orbán. I lived through Orbán’s power grab as a member of Hungary’s parliament and have been researching populism since. I’ve learned a few things along the way that might help Trump’s opponents understand how he won and how they can fight back. First off, it’s important to understand that America isn’t the first country to face this kind of threat to its democracy, and it also isn’t something external. Autocratic populism is not a virus the U.S. caught from the exotic East, from Russia or Hungary. Modern-day autocracies come to power through elections, leading to electoral autocracies. These regimes are built from within the democratic system.

This is what Orbán did so successfully, which is why he has inspired other autocrats. America’s radical conservatives have been paying attention. Steve Bannon has called Orbán “Trump before Trump.” Vice President-elect JD Vance has cited Orbán as an inspiration, who “we could learn from in the United States.” Orbán’s power grab program runs on two components that you can think of as hardware and software. The populist hardware consists of hijacked institutions. The software is made up of populist discourses and narratives that are used to create and enlist the consent of the ruled. Dismantling the hardware of the Orbán-Trump project requires first defeating its software, so let’s start there.

The Software

Liberals often struggle against these populist narratives because the polar opposite of populism is elitism, which carries much less appeal. Here are some of the narratives that work to create the software of autocracy.

— The Folksy Outsider. Pushing against the boundaries of written and unwritten norms is a standard performative element in the populist toolbox, establishing the populist leader as a folksy outsider disrespected by liberal elites. We can expect Trump to continue using outsider mannerisms, from ordering burgers in the White House to posing as a McDonalds employee, as a symbolic nod to devalued working-class lifestyles.

— Anti-Elitism. We can also expect the culture war to escalate. Orbán passed legislation cracking down on universities in an effort to reduce the influence of liberal ideas. Vance has also declared universities “the enemy” and advised that “the closest that conservatives have ever gotten to successfully dealing with left-wing domination of universities is Viktor Orbán’s approach in Hungary.”

— Anti-Immigrant. It is also clear that Trump will continue his anti-immigrant tirades and attempt to deport millions of illegal immigrants. While in Eastern Europe, radical right populist leaders showed up before Europe’s migrant crisis, hostility toward immigration is nevertheless a favorite far-right topic. Populists create intricate narratives about the self-inflicted decline of the West, weakened by a “liberal virus” and losing out in the global competition of civilizations. These narratives are particularly potent because they also activate racial stereotypes and fears concerning historical minorities, not just new immigrants.

— Economic Nationalism. From climate-change policies to free trade agreements, liberal and centrist economic policies have also become frequent punching bags. Trump’s love affair with tariffs and his trade war with China mirrors Orbán’s fight against economic globalization. While the practical impact of Orbán’s economic nationalism is limited in Hungary, it is crucial for maintaining support among working-class Hungarians, who are otherwise relative losers of Orbán’s policies.

Economic nationalism is a vital component of the populist software but is often neglected by opponents of the far right, so let’s take a deeper look at how it works.

Before Eastern Europe became a laboratory for illiberalism in the 2010s, Western economists used it as a laboratory for neoliberalism in the 1990s. This shock therapy experiment alienated masses of lower-middle- and working-class citizens from the parties of the center-left, who often championed these policies. Similar tectonic shifts have undermined the Democrats’ support among working-class Americans. Economic nationalist narratives used by right-wing populists glorify “makers” over “takers,” resonating with working-class voters who value hard work. This narrative also serves to cement an alliance between plutocrats, billionaires and workers, which might seem paradoxical, but it isn’t: They are all portrayed as hard-working value creators as opposed to “lazy bureaucrats” and “benefit scroungers.” At their core, some of these narratives are centered on racist or nativist ideas, but they are cushioned in several outer layers that are primarily economic — and it’s the economic messages that many who hear them react to.

That’s why labeling Trump and Orbán and their supporters as moral degenerates, or even Nazis, is tactically dysfunctional. Some of their voters are hardcore racists, but many aren’t. In fact, one of the often-neglected powers of successful radical right populists is their capacity to bring together a broad group of disillusioned voters. Conservatives and nationalists with cultural grievances respond to the anti-migrant and anti-identity political messages. Economic nationalist messages resonate with those harboring economic frustrations over increased social insecurities and stagnating living standards. Symbolic class politics allows populist leaders to glue together those components of the populist narrative. When economic grievances and cultural resentments combine, they create a potent force, generating consent for the autocrat to do what it takes to change the hardware.

The Hardware

Once the narratives have taken hold, the autocratic leader can change the hardware that runs the country. Most of these steps are incremental and might even be defensible on their own. But together, they build a formidable institutional power base that can keep the leader and his party in power permanently. Here are some of those steps.

— Strengthen Executive Power. After serving one term as prime minister, Orbán lost office in 2002. He resolved that next time, he is going to be much more aggressive in strengthening his hold on power. Trump and his team have prepared for their second term in a similar way. Kevin Roberts, president of the Heritage Foundation behind the infamous Project 2025, portrayed Hungary as “the model for conservative statecraft.” Project 2025 echoes Orbán’s playbook, pushing to dismantle liberal influence in the “administrative state” and strengthen executive power. As Trump’s initial nominees also show, we can expect systematic efforts to sweep out officials deemed disloyal to the president. Trump also plans to centralize control over institutions, ranging from the Federal Reserve Board to the Federal Communications Commission.

— Discipline the judiciary. Efforts at reining in the Justice Department and exerting more influence over the judiciary will be crucial. With Republicans already controlling the Supreme Court, any new appointments during Trump’s term would cement a conservative majority for decades. Trump was also open about his plan to fire attorneys who refuse to follow his orders. Vance even mentioned the option of simply disobeying judicial authorities.

— Change Election Processes. Manipulating electoral rules and district boundaries to benefit the ruling party is a strategy that Orbán imported from the U.S. The state of Georgia is a case in point, where Republicans have increased their power to change electoral results they deem fraudulent. In Congress, Republicans have proposed far-reaching legislation that could allow Republicans to twist the electoral process to their advantage in future election cycles.

— Control the media. Orbán consolidated media control through centralized propaganda, market pressure and loyal billionaires. In the U.S., in addition to the already powerful empire of Rupert Murdoch, several recent examples show the power of friendly tycoons over the media. Elon Musk is a good case study; he used Twitter-turned-X to bolster right-wing populists and now stands to gain much from his relationship with Trump. This mirrors Orbán’s strategy to forge a strong alliance with the country’s billionaires for mutual protection and support. Trump also plans to move fast on a business-friendly agenda of tax cuts, deregulation and expanded energy production.

— Secure Control over Party. A final critical step is securing full control over the party. Just as Orbán replaced mainstream leaders with loyal outsiders, Trump co-opted much of the Tea Party in his takeover of the Republican Party. Trump’s team has positioned key allies as candidates and RNC leaders, placing his daughter-in-law as co-chair and pushing out numerous establishment staffers. And his current moves to name uber-loyalists to administration jobs regardless of their qualifications is also an effort to make Republicans in Congress bend to his will.

The Antidote

First, let’s take a breath because there’s a silver lining. Trump’s presidency will be painful for many, but democratic erosion is unlikely to reach Hungarian levels soon. That’s because the U.S. has a more robust political system, and Democrats and pro-democracy activists have a window to act before lasting institutional damage occurs. That’s the good news. The bad news is that there’s no consensus among democracy advocates on the best way to fight illiberal, right-wing populism. However, the story of Europe’s populists offers insights into what works and what doesn’t. There are three main points of resistance.

— The courts. If there are any brazen attacks on constitutional principles, the justice system should be the first line of defense. However, illiberal regimes often operate within legal boundaries, making them harder to challenge. Courts in Europe have so far had little power against Orbán. Litigation or legal restrictions on populists also tend to backfire, boosting their image as outsiders fighting against an unjust, technocratic system, as Trump has already demonstrated in his efforts to discredit the legal cases against him. What this means is that the fight against right-wing populism is primarily political.

— The media. Fighting for media pluralism and independence is vital. Investigative journalism helps, but it tends to preach to the converted. There need to be news channels and media outlets for getting messages across to non-metropolitan areas dominated by far-right news sources. Liberal-minded billionaires should not sit idly by as they did in Hungary, watching the right take over the media. The New Right is also significantly more embedded in social media than liberals are. Those of us who favor democracy cannot let Elon Musks and Andrew Tates control the public discourse. Progressive influencers: Time to log in and post away — there’s a narrative battle to win.

— States and cities. Democrats cannot win without a powerful social base embedded throughout the country. Fighting for every seat and institution in states and cities is one of the most important things opponents of autocracy need to do. Even in hard illiberal regimes like Turkey or Hungary, free cities are channels for interaction with citizens, provide organizational resources and can be used to present alternative visions of governance.

Countering populist power structures requires first defeating populist narratives — a battle the anti-populist center is losing. The demise of Hungary’s once-strong left-liberal elites, now completely overpowered by the right, should serve as a stark warning, which leads us to the most important battleground: the Democratic Party. To win the fight against autocracy, above all, the Democratic Party must reconnect with the working class to preserve liberal institutions. There are simply not enough educated moderate suburbanites for an electoral majority.

[...] Hungary’s key lesson is you don’t protect democracy by talking about democracy — you protect democracy by protecting people. Only a democracy that works for the people is sustainable.

Gábor Scheiring wrote in Politico Magazine this weekend his experience of Hungary’s descent into the authoritarian abyss that the USA seems to want to follow under a 2nd term of Donald Trump and how to combat such authoritarianism.

[darkmaga-returns]

Back in July after the first Trump assassination attempt, I wrote that there can be no national unity, no burying the hatchet or cooling the rhetoric with people who have been encouraging political violence and pushing assassination prep for years. You can’t smack someone in the face with a hammer and then insist everyone calm down.

Trump’s election victory doesn’t change that. Those in the news media who spent years calling Trump a fascist and comparing him to Hitler, claiming he represents a threat to democracy and that he’ll use his presidential powers to go after his enemies, should not be forgiven. Their lies and nonstop propaganda should not be forgotten. No one should ever take them seriously again. When they try to engage the public square, they should either be ignored entirely or met with a wall of mockery and derision. They are enemies of the American people, whom they openly despise, and there can be no real unity with them no matter what they might say in the future.

Going forward, it should be a mark of shame to be associated with MSNBC, CBS News, and CNN. Same goes for The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Atlantic, and Politico. All the “prestige” media outlets that perpetrated lies, distortions, and unhinged rhetoric about Trump should lose so much credibility that their reader and viewer bases collapse, advertisers abandon them, and they get broken up and sold off for parts. If Laurene Powell Jobs wants to run a vanity magazine for her own entertainment, fine. But let’s not pretend it’s a serious place where serious journalists work. We all know what it is now.

Legacy media outlets, the polling industry, the Democrat-funded nonprofits and the academics and activists who run them have all now been exposed as cogs in a giant propaganda machine. Kamala Harris was never ahead. She never had a chance of winning. There was no “joy.” She wasn’t “brat.” She didn’t even win the Democrat Party nomination, it was handed to her in a backroom deal. She isn’t relatable or cool, she’s the most cringey and fake person ever to run for president. Corporate media and the Democrats ran a massive psy-op on the American people to make them believe something that wasn’t true. And it failed. We should never forget that these p

[meret118]

"I think we have to say first and foremost that there is zero evidence whatsoever that anything to do with the FAA's efforts to hire people of diverse backgrounds, people with disabilities, had anything to do with this tragedy.

. . .

First of all, at that press conference, president Trump read out a sentence from the Biden-era FAA website about the FAA's desire to hire people with so-called targeted disabilities. Those are significant disabilities like psychiatric and intellectual issues, paralysis, missing extremities, and so on. What he did not mention was that that exact language was on the FAA website under president Trump the entirety of his own administration. We grabbed a screenshot from December 2020 late in his first term, so this was not something Biden invented. In fact, it's been on that website at least since 2013."

. . .

"No. 2, this was not just language on a Trump-era website," Dale added. "In fact, in 2019, under president Trump, the FAA launched a pilot program specifically to hire people with these so-called targeted disabilities – intellectual, psychiatric, etc, in air traffic control roles, so they emphasized at the time, these people would have to meet all criteria in terms of medical criteria, qualifications, security criteria. But regardless, this was not something the Biden administration invented, as he suggested."

For years, the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority warned Congress that the region’s airports were at capacity, DeFazio said in an interview with POLITICO Magazine. But their pleas for restraint fell short among lawmakers, who voted to add more flights to an airport already struggling with its heavy load and a shortage of air traffic controllers caused by previous government shutdowns and pandemic-era hits to its workforce.

“Every senator in particular wants a nonstop flight to and from wherever they live,” said DeFazio, an Oregon Democrat.

. . .

This is an incredibly congested airspace. First off, if the military wants to run training missions, they could run them between 10 p.m. and 6 a.m., when Washington National has noise reductions in place and traffic is dramatically reduced. I don’t see any reason to be running training missions during peak hours.

. . .

Secondly, it’s unbelievable that the president of the United States and three of his minions — Secretary [Sean] Duffy, Secretary [Pete] Hegseth, and Vice President [JD] Vance — immediately blamed DEI. I mean, let’s be real here. All air traffic controllers go through the same training. They have to pass the same unbelievably rigorous test. It’s a very, very stressful job.

Disability employment law, she says, requires "that the person with a disability must be able to perform the essential functions of the job."

. . .

"To scapegoat people with disabilities for this tragedy just seems inconsistent with the facts," Katy Neas, chief executive officer of The Arc of the United States, which advocates for people with intellectual and developmental disabilities, told NPR.

"It's very sad that this stigma against people with disabilities continues to be used as a reason why qualified people can't be hired."

[tomorrowusa]

Some polls show that Trump's 34 felony convictions have somewhat been a net negative for him. This one from POLITICO-ipsos continues the trend.

This poll was conducted from June 7-9 and had a sample of 1,027 adults, age 18 or older, who were interviewed online; it has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points for all respondents. This is the fourth poll on the Trump prosecutions that POLITICO Magazine has conducted in partnership with Ipsos since last summer.

Twenty-two percent of respondents said that the conviction is important to how they will vote and that it makes them less likely to support Trump. Only 6 percent of respondents took the other side of that question — reporting that the conviction is important to how they will vote and that it makes them more likely to support Trump.

More than twice as many independents say they are now less likely to vote for Trump as opposed to those who are now more inclined to vote for Trump.

In states decided by small margins, a few thousand votes by independents can make a huge difference.

In conversation, don't just say Donald Trump – say convicted felon and adjudicated sex offender Donald Trump. A bit of a mouthful, but successful advertising campaigns are ones that use a lot of repetition. Liberals need to get over their obsessive and counterproductive reluctance to repeat things. If you want to win then repeat a lot.

The Biden-Harris campaign produced this ad to show the difference between what convicted felon and adjudicated sex offender Trump has been doing and what Biden is doing.

[x-heesy]

Our whole system is very very wrong 😑

Europe is lost, America lost, London lost

Still we are clamouring victory

All that is meaningless rules

We have learned nothing from history

The people are dead in their lifetimes

Dazed in the shine of the streets

But look how the traffic's still moving

System's too slick to stop working

Business is good, and there's bands every night in the pubs

And there's two for one drinks in the clubs

And we scrubbed up well

Washed off the work and the stress

And now all we want's some excess

Better yet, a night to remember that we'll soon forget

All of the blood that was bled for these cities to grow

All of the bodies that fell

The roots that were dug from the earth

So these games could be played

I see it tonight in the stains on my hands

The buildings are screaming

I can't ask for help though, nobody knows me

Hostile, worried, lonely

We move in our packs and these are the rights we were born to

Working and working so we can be all that we want

Then dancing the drudgery off

But even the drugs have got boring

Well, sex is still good when you get it

To sleep, to dream, to keep the dream in reach

To each a dream, don't weep, don't scream

Just keep it in, keep sleeping in

What am I gonna do to wake up?

I feel the cost of it pushing my body

Like I push my hands into pockets

And softly I walk and I see it, this is all we deserve

The wrongs of our past have resurfaced

Despite all we did to vanquish the traces

My very language is tainted

With all that we stole to replace it with this

I am quiet

Feeling the onset of riot

Riots are tiny, though

Systems are huge

Traffic keeps moving, proving there's nothing to do

'Cause it's big business, baby, and its smile is hideous

Top down violence, and structural viciousness

Your kids are dosed up on medical sedatives

But don't worry 'bout that, man, worry 'bout terrorists

The water level's rising! The water level's rising!

The animals, the elephants, the polarbears are dying!

Stop crying, start buying, but what about the oil spill?

Shh, no one likes a party pooping spoil sport

Massacres, massacres, massacres, new shoes

Ghettoised children murdered in broad daylight

By those employed to protect them

Live porn streamed to your pre-teens' bedrooms

Glass ceiling, no headroom

Half a generation live beneath the breadline

Oh, but it's happy hour on the high street

Friday night at last lads, my treat!

All went fine 'til that kid got glassed in the last bar

Place went nuts, you can ask our Lou

It was madness, road ran red, pure claret

And about them immigrants? I can't stand them

Mostly, I mind my own business

They're only coming over here to get rich, it's a sickness

England! England! Patriotism!

And you wonder why kids want to die for religion?

It goes work all your life for a pittance

Maybe you'll make it to manager, pray for a raise

Cross the beige days off on your beach babe calendar

The anarchists are desperate for something to smash

Scandalous pictures of fashionable rappers

In glamourous magazines, who's dating who?

Politico cash in an envelope

Caught sniffing lines off a prostitutes prosthetic tits

Now it's back to the House of Lords with slapped wrists

They abduct kids who fuck the heads of dead pigs

But him in a hoodie with a couple of spliffs

Jail him, he's the criminal

Jail him, he's the criminal

It's the bored-of-it-all generation

The product of product placement and manipulation

Shoot 'em up, brutal, duty of care

Come on, new shoes, beautiful hair, bullshit

Saccharine ballads and selfies and selfies and selfies

And here's me outside the palace of me

Construct a self and psyhcosis

Meanwhile the people were dead in their droves

And no, nobody noticed, well, some of them noticed

You could tell by the emoji they posted

Sleep like a gloved hand covers our eyes

The lights are so nice and bright and let's dream

But some of us are stuck like stones in a slipstream

What am I gonna do to wake up?

We are lost, we are lost, we are lost

And still nothing will stop, nothing pauses

We have ambitions and friendships and our courtships to think of

Divorces to drink off the thought of

The money, the money, the oil

The planet is shaking and spoiled

And life is a plaything

A garment to soil

The toil, the toil

I can't see an ending at all

Only the end

How is this something to cherish?

When the tribesmen are dead in their deserts

To make room for alien structures

Develop, develop

And kill what you find if it threatens you

No trace of love in the hunt for the bigger buck

Here in the land where nobody gives a fuck

Europe Is Lost by Kae Tempest