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whittlebaggett8 · 6 years ago

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China and Saudi Arabia: The Global Ambitions of Mohammad bin Salman

Trans-Pacific Watch writer Mercy Kuo routinely engages subject-make a difference specialists, coverage practitioners, and strategic thinkers across the world for their numerous insights into U.S. Asia coverage. This discussion with James M. Dorsey, Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological College in Singapore, is the 180th in “The Trans-Pacific Perspective Insight Sequence.”

How does China match into the worldview of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MBS)?

China is Saudi Arabia’s major oil customer. The U.S. is getting a self-sufficient exporter of oil. Saudi Arabia desires to safe other clients. China has develop into a essential spouse to Saudi Arabia. In this context, uncertainty about the dependability of United States as an ally, which predates [current President] Trump, heading again to President Obama, looms big in Saudi Arabia’s strategic calculus. President Obama’s world-wide perspective centered on the pivot to Asia, which resulted in the reduction of the Center East’s strategic importance. In addition, Obama concluded the Iran nuclear treaty. Saudi Arabia sees Iran as an existential threat.

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For Riyadh, Trump is a much more welcome partner for Saudi Arabia vis-à-vis Iran. Nonetheless, Trump is significantly noticed as unreliable and very transactional with an isolationist perspective of the U.S. part in world geopolitics. Even on Iran, Trump is not reliable, with waivers supplied to eight nations on sanctions, such as China.

The important dilemma is how very long China can wander the tightrope concerning Saudi Arabia and Iran, and at what point will it develop into an problem? Ultimately, China’s romance with Iran is substantially more mature than China’s relations with Saudi Arabia. Chinese and Iranians understand every single other on a deeper amount, as empires that did not interfere with every other. Each individual region bookends the Asian continent.

Iran as properly as North Korea are disruptors of international buy. China is not unfavorable to a certain degree of disruption. Iran has a extremely educated inhabitants, technologically savvy. Iran as a landlink for China’s BRI [Belt and Road Initiative] tends to make Iran crucial since one BRI corridor finishes in Tehran.

Saudi Arabia is significant to China, but the United States is nonetheless the Center East defense umbrella. Chinese does not want to take above the defense umbrella in the region. Chinese policy in the Middle East usually takes the U.S. into account, and Beijing will not rock the boat in the Middle East vis-à-vis the United States.

Even nevertheless Saudi Arabia’s relations with China are escalating, their agendas are not totally aligned. The most well known illustration is in Pakistan on two issues. It is not very clear if Saudi funding of militant anti-Shiite, anti-Iranian madrassas that dot the Iran-Pakistan border is govt-sourced or tacitly endorsed by Riyadh. Possibly way, it needs some type of acquiescence from Riyadh. Sufficient proof indicates the Saudis are thinking of the chance of destabilizing Iran by stirring unrest between its ethnic minorities. This pondering is shared by U.S. Countrywide Safety Advisor John Bolton. Bolton hinted at it in a movie revealed on Twitter at the time of the Warsaw convention in February.

If Saudi Arabia and the U.S. needed to wage war against Iran, Balochistan would be section of the battleground, which is the middle position of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). China-Pakistan relations are strained now thanks to Imran Khan’s demand from customers for a refocus of the China-Pakistan Financial Corridor, which the Chinese do not want to do right away. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have bailed out Pakistan. Pakistan was likely to welcome Saudi investment in Balochistan, introduced as portion of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, but China said [Saudi] investments weren’t part of it.

Why is China’s recognition of MBS’s leadership critical to Saudi Arabia’s financial potential?

China’s recognition of MBS matters not so substantially mainly because of MBS the male, but MBS as the de facto king of Saudi Arabia. MBS is significantly turning Saudi Arabia into a person-man rule. Undertaking business with Saudi Arabia suggests executing company with MBS. Chinese assistance for MBS is extra important to MBS than for China. The pomp and circumstance of MBS’s modern stop by to Asia compensated for the cold reaction from the U.S. and the West. The Asia journey cast MBS in a various gentle and shown that critical earth powers are completely ready to do business enterprise with him, somewhat than address him as a pariah. He wished to job that he stays internationally respected ̶ a message he desired to amplify at household and abroad.

How is MBS balancing China and Russia vis-à-vis the United States?

Based mostly on his statements considering the fact that 2015, prior to the Jamal Khashoggi killing, MBS was determined to do whichever was vital to convey the United States again to the Middle East. One approach was to make an imbroglio in Yemen to compel the U.S. to re-have interaction in the Middle East, which labored quite nicely till the killing of Khashoggi. Saudi Arabia’s incapability to arrive up with a coherent, convincing narrative to make clear Khashoggi’s murder has induced consternation in Congress and friction concerning Capitol Hill and the White Residence.

It is remarkably not likely that MBS could not have been afflicted by the Khashoggi killing in a person of two methods: he possibly realizes that ability is not absolute and need to be managed or he’s emboldened. My sense is that MBS is emboldened, and this emboldened position could additional complicate relations with the U.S. and effect relations with China and Russia.

Particularly, Saudi Arabia need to control the geopolitics of electrical power with Russia seeking to manipulate power marketplaces, in spite of significant Gulf investment in Russia. In addition, Saudi Arabia’s weapons acquisition from Russia, together with the S-400 protection program, as nicely as Russia’s purpose in Syria and associations with Iran and Chinese underscore the substantial stakes in an particularly fluid geopolitical landscape.

Clarify the influence of Saudi Arabia’s decision to use Huawei 5G know-how.

Chinese did MBS the favor of honoring him. Saudi Arabia won’t stab China in again with refusing 5G engineering. Riyadh does not have the very same form of concerns that the U.S. has. It is not about the know-how, it’s about rely on. The U.S. would be considerably less concerned if Samsung or Nokia led 5G technological know-how innovation, because South Korea and Finland are not being accused of industrial espionage like China. The connection in between Huawei and the Chinese government is really unique from Nokia-Helsinki and Samsung-Seoul’s government interactions.

China is Saudi Arabia’s product for economic expansion – financial liberalization with domestic repression. Saudi Arabia has to enhance its autocracy to a 21st century in which autocracies have to complete present work opportunities, public safety, and merchandise be much more attentive to the public’s aspirations and sentiments. The Chinese model is considerably a lot more pertinent for Saudi Arabia’s financial progress than the possible nationwide protection risks of utilizing China’s 5G technologies.

What are the foreign coverage implications of developing Saudi Arabia-China cooperation on U.S.-Saudi Arabia relations?

The moment [the furor over] Khashoggi has played out in Congress and the White Home, we’ll know how U.S.-Saudi Arabia relations will evolve. It’s not a zero-sum recreation. Washington would not be upset as a make a difference of theory regarding closer Saudi Arabia-China relations.

Nuclear weapons could also become an concern. Saudi Arabia is far more than delighted to supply. Chinese and Saudis have signed at least a single nuclear arrangement that permits Saudi Arabia to put specific creating blocks in put. The U.S. is not willing to offer Saudi Arabia killer drones. China has no issue and has designed a manufacturing plant in Saudi Arabia. Bolstering the country’s military services capabilities is aligned with MBS’s eyesight for creating an industrial military complex.

Navy relations concerning Saudi Arabia-China particularly in phrases of arms product sales will raise troubles in U.S.-Saudi Arabia relations and could be a key indicator of the way in bilateral relations.

Some say Saudis and Individuals have break up up world wide markets with the U.S. emerging as the world’s largest exporter, whereby Saudis market oil to China, and the U.S. sells fuel to China. People in america fully grasp Saudis will need to offer oil to important purchasers these kinds of as China to preserve security.

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#China and Saudi Arabia #China-Saudi Arabia relations #Mohammad bin Salman #Saudi Arabia foreign poli

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investmart007 · 7 years ago

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WASHINGTON | The Latest: Services and other events set for McCain

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WASHINGTON | The Latest: Services and other events set for McCain

WASHINGTON — The Latest on the death of Sen. John McCain (all times local): 5:15 p.m.

Plans are coming together for services and other events to honor the late Sen. John McCain over the next week.

Those involved in planning McCain’s farewell say the Arizona Republican will lie in state in the Arizona State Capitol on Wednesday. A funeral is scheduled for Thursday at North Phoenix Baptist Church.

In Washington, McCain will lie in state in the Capitol Rotunda on Friday. A funeral will take place Saturday at Washington National Cathedral.

A private memorial service is planned next Sunday at the U.S. Naval Academy Chapel in Annapolis, Maryland. Burial will be in the academy cemetery. ___ 1:15 p.m.

Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey says Sen. John McCain will lie in state at the Arizona Capitol on Wednesday, which is his birthday. In a tweet, Ducey described the event as a “rare and distinct occurrence for a truly special man.”

He adds: “John McCain is Arizona, and we will honor his life every way we can.”

The six-term Arizona senator and decorated Vietnam War veteran died Saturday of brain cancer at his ranch near Sedona, Arizona, at age 81. ___

12:40 p.m. Congressional leaders say Republican Sen. John McCain will lie in state in the U.S. Capitol rotunda.

Republican and Democratic leaders did not give a date for the event, saying Sunday that more details would be released later.

McCain died Saturday at his ranch near Sedona, Arizona, at age 81. The six-term Arizona senator and decorated Vietnam War veteran had an aggressive form of brain cancer.

Events are expected to begin in his home state and move to Washington before his burial at the U.S. Naval Academy in Annapolis, Maryland.

Former Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama are expected to speak at McCain’s service in Washington. ___

12:15 p.m. A candidate for the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate in Arizona has suggested that a statement that Sen. John McCain was ending medical treatment was designed to hurt her campaign.

Kelli Ward made the comment on Facebook hours before McCain died Saturday. Ward had unsuccessfully challenged McCain in the 2016 GOP primary and is now running for a seat being vacated by Sen. Jeff Flake.

A post from a Ward campaign aide questions whether the Friday announcement was timed to distract from a bus tour that Ward had launched that day.

Ward commented: “I think they wanted to have a particular narrative that is negative to me.”

After her comment was publicized, Ward deleted it and wrote “the media loves a narrative” and said she “feels compassion” for McCain’s family. ___

12 p.m. The governor of Arizona does not plan to announce whom he will appoint to replace John McCain in the U.S. Senate until after McCain’s burial.

The Arizona Republican’s death on Saturday of brain cancer leaves a vacancy in the Senate for the state. State law requires the governor to name an appointee of the same political party who will serve until the next general election in 2020.

Republican Gov. Doug Ducey’s spokesman Daniel Ruiz II said in a statement Sunday that the governor will not be making any announcements until after McCain is buried.

The statement says, “Now is a time for remembering and honoring a consequential life.” ___

10:25 a.m. Retired Gen. David Petraeus is honoring Sen. John McCain as a distinguished veteran who always “had the backs” of military service members.

Petraeus, a former CIA director who previously oversaw coalition forces in Iraq, tells ABC’s “This Week” that McCain was committed to ensuring that those who fought the wars after Sept. 11 “had what was needed to prevail.”

He says McCain was also very forthright in standing up against torture, working to limit the enhanced interrogation of detainees.

Petraeus notes that an extraordinary moment of McCain’s military career was when he was a prisoner of war in Vietnam and was offered freedom by his captors, but “he would not break faith with his fellow prisoners.”

The 81-year-old McCain died Saturday of brain cancer at his ranch in Arizona. ___

9:55 a.m. Sen. Susan Collins is remembering John McCain’s momentous vote against their party’s effort to repeal the Obama-era health law.

The Maine Republican tells CNN’s “State of the Union” that she and GOP colleague Lisa Murkowski of Alaska — both repeal opponents — spoke to McCain before the July 2017 vote because they knew he was struggling with the decision.

Collins says he pointed to them and said, “You two are right!” Collins says Vice President Mike Pence was waiting to speak to McCain next, but she knew McCain’s “no” decision would hold. She says, “Once John McCain made up his mind about something, there was no shaking him.”

McCain later dramatically held up his hand and flicked his thumb down, killing the measure.

The 81-year-old Arizona Republican died Saturday of brain cancer. ___

8:45 a.m. German Chancellor Angela Merkel is paying tribute to Sen. John McCain as “one of the great political personalities of our time.” The 81-year-old Republican senator died at his ranch in Arizona on Saturday after a yearlong battle with brain cancer. Merkel offered her condolences in a statement tweeted Sunday by her spokesman, Steffen Seibert.

She says that McCain was “a tireless fighter for a strong trans-Atlantic alliance; his significance went well beyond his own country.”

Merkel says, “John McCain was led by the firm conviction that the sense of all political work lies in service to freedom, democracy and the rule of law. His death is a loss to all those who share this conviction.” ___

7:25 a.m. People in Vietnam are remembering Sen. John McCain as having played an important role in normalizing relations between their country and the United States.

McCain was captured in 1967 when he parachuted into Hanoi’s Truc Bach Lake after his Navy aircraft was shot down during a bombing mission. He spent over five years in the prison known as the “Hanoi Hilton.”

On Sunday, a memorial was held at the lake, with residents leaving flowers to remember McCain, who died Saturday at the age of 81. One resident, Nguyen Van Trung, says McCain “fought for peace in many countries, including Vietnam.”

Another resident, Hoang Thi Trang, says that to the Vietnamese people, McCain “was not only a companion in resolving postwar issues, but also a friend.” ___

6:40 a.m. French President Emmanuel Macron (eh-mahn-yoo-EHL’ mah-KROHN’) is paying tribute to the late John McCain and says the senator’s voice will be missed.

Macron has tweeted in English that McCain “was a true American hero. He devoted his entire life to his country.” McCain died Saturday at age 81. ___

5:45 a.m. Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen has expressed her condolences over the death of Sen. John McCain, saying she will remember him as a friend and a fighter.

Taiwan’s official Central News Agency said Sunday that Tsai thanked McCain for endorsing bills in Congress that supported Taiwan and for defending democracy around the world.

Tsai said his death marked the “great loss of an important friend of Taiwan” in the U.S.

Under Tsai’s leadership, the self-governed island democracy has come under increasing pressure from Beijing, which regards Taiwan as part of its territory and has sought to isolate it on the global stage. Tsai said in a Tweet: “He never backed down from his beliefs & forever strived for a more peaceful & prosperous world.” ___

5:40 a.m. Germany’s foreign minister says Sen. John McCain stood for an America that is a “reliable” partner.

Maas said that “he stood for an America that is a reliable and close partner. An America that takes responsibility for others out of strength, and stands by its values and principles even in difficult moments — and bases its claim to leadership on that.”

He added that “we will remember his voice.” ___

5:40 a.m. Pakistan has offered its condolences over the death of U.S. Sen. John McCain, saying he will be “greatly missed.”

Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi said in a statement Sunday that McCain had “always stood for strong Pakistan-U.S. relations and a cooperative approach for promoting peace and building stability in the region.”

As chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, McCain made many visits to the region. In a visit to Pakistan last year, he said there could be no peace in neighboring Afghanistan without Pakistan’s cooperation.

Pakistani officials say McCain often worked to ease tensions between Pakistan and the United States. The U.S. has repeatedly urged Pakistan to do more to crack down on Islamic militants operating along the porous Afghan border. ___ 4 a.m. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says his country salutes Sen. John McCain as a “great American patriot and a great supporter of Israel.”

Netanyahu says Sunday he is deeply saddened by McCain’s passing at the age of 81 and will always treasure his friendship.

McCain was a frequent visitor to Israel who backed it in the Senate and strongly opposed the nuclear ambitions and militancy of its archrival Iran.

Netanyahu says McCain’s “support for Israel never wavered. It sprang from his belief in democracy and freedom.”

Other tributes poured in from across the Israeli political spectrum. Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman called McCain one of Israel’s greatest friends. Yair Lapid, head of the opposition Yesh Atid Party, lauded McCain as “a soldier with integrity in a world of politicians.” ___

3 a.m. Arizona residents are paying respects to the late Sen. John McCain. Some drove their cars and parked along Interstate 17 on Saturday night as a hearse traveled from McCain’s home near Sedona down to Phoenix.

Molly Anderson and her 12-year-old daughter Ava Burden met up with the procession after it arrived at a mortuary in Phoenix where dozens had gathered. They brought candles to place outside the facility.

Anderson, who is an unaffiliated voter, says she respected how McCain stood up for his own ideas.

“The word that pops into my head the most with him is ‘integrity,’ ” she said.

McCain is expected to be honored in Arizona and in Washington before being laid to rest at the U.S. Naval Academy Cemetery in Annapolis, Maryland. ___

2 a.m. A former Vietnamese ambassador to Washington, Nguyen Quoc Cuong, says Sen. John McCain played an important role in normalizing relations between the U.S. and the communist country, where he was held prisoner of war for more than five years.

Coung wrote on his Facebook page that McCain was very proud of the monument erected by Vietnam at the Truc Bach Lake in Hanoi where his fighter jet was shot down and he was taken prisoner. He also recalled that McCain asked the Vietnamese to correct the inscription that identified him as an Air Force instead of a Navy pilot. Coung wrote, “Each time during his visit to Vietnam, he often took other senators and friends to the monument.”

Coung says there were times when McCain expressed concern that after he and Sen. John Kerry were gone, a new generation of American lawmakers would not fully understand the care with which to promote Vietnam-U.S. relations, and so he made a point to bring young senators with him on his visits to the Southeast Asian nation. ___

12:40 a.m. Sen. John McCain is being remembered for his service in war and in Congress by presidents and lawmakers. The longtime Arizona Republican died Saturday after a yearlong battle with brain cancer. President Donald Trump has offered his “deepest sympathies and respect” to McCain’s family.

The man who defeated McCain for the presidency in 2008, Barack Obama, says they shared a fidelity to American ideals. McCain’s opponent for the GOP nomination in 2000, George W. Bush, calls his former political rival a “man of deep conviction and a patriot of the highest order.”

McCain is expected to be honored in Arizona and Washington before being buried, likely this coming week, at the U.S. Naval Academy Cemetery in Annapolis, Maryland. Bush is among those expected to speak at McCain’s funeral.

By Associated Press

#academy cemetery #distinct occurrence #enhanced interrogation #extraordinary moment #John McCain #mccain washington #pakistani officials #political party #presidents george #TodayNews #vietnamese people

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weeklybreakdown-blog · 7 years ago

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This Week: TPP, Mean Girls, Tensions in Lebanon, and Putin

Happy Tuesday, Homies! President Trump is wrapping up his nearly two-week visit to Asia. There’s plenty to unpack in what was and wasn’t said during the trip and on the sidelines. For one, it’s important enough to discuss that the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is alive and kicking, Trump goes full-on “Mean Girl” for Kim Jong Un, Saudi Arabia might be inflaming tensions in the Middle East, and Putin continues to reign as the smartest man in the room. Got a friend who could benefit from this info? Share and promote this newsletter with your friends! As always, Vicky, Colin, and I welcome any feedback you might have.

TPP Zombies Back to Life

Sticking to campaign pledges, Donald Trump promptly withdrew the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership back in January. Since then, U.S. allies in Asia have been left reeling from a massive blow to free-trade and a rules-based order led by the United States. The trade bloc would have enforced 21st century rules of the road on developing countries and help cement human rights, labor rules, and encouragement from the United States throughout the region.

Since Donald Trump killed the notion of the United States leading this agreement, Asia has been looking for the collective next step. Many wondered if this was the chance for China to lead with its own initiatives and dominate the region. However, Sunday night offered a glimmer of hope as trade representatives from 11 Pacific Rim countries, “...have reached an agreement on a number of fundamental parts” for resurrecting TPP without U.S. participation.

The new potential agreement has many details that have to be reworked and revised now that the U.S. is no longer participating. However, the ‘Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership’ as it is now being called, has received endorsement from all participating countries on key principles such as, “unfair trade practices” and “market distorting subsidies.” Count this as a potential win for traditional business ethics and values once championed by the U.S. Hopefully the day will come when the United States returns to defending admirable goals such as these throughout the world. Stop Trying to Make "Fetch" Happen

Seems to be another weird day where Regina George, also known as the President of the United States, can’t just let it go. Kim Jong Un described the President as someone who is “begging for nuclear war” and a “destroyer.” These comments would normally not be taken lightly, but of course, that was when we used to live in reality and facts mattered.

Instead, the President responded with a sarcastically worded tweet, citing he would never call the North Korean leader “fat and short.” It seems that the most basic principles of leadership cannot be expected from Donald Trump. Instead, he is a person whose impulsivity and vanity cloud any kind of objective he attempts to grasp - leaving the American people exhausted and befuddled.

Can I Get a Lebanese PM in Here or What?

It’s been a long known secret that Iran and Saudi Arabia hate each other. I mean, truly and genuinely, loathe the other in a simmering cold-war style conflict between the Shia and Sunni domains. Add to the mix little Lebanon. The country is viewed with suspicions in Riyadh as a pivotal piece in the Shia crescent (an area of the Middle East under perceived Shia influence from Iran, northern Iraq, Syria, and into Lebanon).

Well, the Lebanese Prime Minister went to visit the Kingdom on Friday, November 3rd and was immediately detained, denied access to his personal phone, and forced to resign his Ministership live on Saudi TV. Speculation points to Hariri not taking a more confrontational approach to Hezbollah, long a parasite to Lebanese politics.

Beyond the speculation that Saudi Arabia is holding Hariri against his will, Lebanese politics is at a crucial moment. The country finds itself dealing with a coalition government that is highly influenced by Hezbollah, and any chance at striking agreements in Beirut are threatened until the Prime Minister returns.

Saudi-skeptics see the Kingdom as trying to knock out Iran’s 'pawns' in the region. Whether by playing in the internal politics of a vulnerable country, or encouraging Iran or Hezbollah to make itself the aggressor as an excuse for action, Saudi Arabia’s Prince Salman is certainly upping the ante when it comes to Middle East politics this November. As we detailed last week, the arrest of several crown princes has been viewed as a powerful concentration of control with Salman’s meteoric rise. The rest of us are left to wonder where his brinkmanship will take the region next.

Putin on a Show

Donald Trump got to meet Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Vietnam this past weekend. When asked about the interference in the 2016 American election, Putin denied any involvement. “He said he didn't meddle, he said he didn't meddle. I asked him again. You can only ask so many times.” Trump believes Putin is genuine on this.

Let’s be smart here. All 17 of America’s spy agencies agree that hackers with the full backing and support of the Russian Government (at Vladimir Putin’s direction) interfered in the American election in favor of one candidate. The fact that a sitting President of the United States would not believe his own intelligence agencies and instead takes the word for a KGB-trained autocrat is absurd. Trump expects us to forget, because forgetting is the first step in apathy. Apathy leads to distrust and hatred for the other, which lets this man continue being President. Do not for a second forget what the Russians did in 2016, what they are continuing to do, and what they will do to our elections in the years to come. What to Watch:

On Thursday, Tesla will unveil it’s electric semi-truck. It’s a huge chance to change the way food, goods, and services move around the United States and the world, so this is BIG news.

Continuing allegations against the embattled Republican candidate for Senate in Alabama, Roy Moore. More Republican Senators are un-endorsing him, and some polls show his Democratic challenger, Doug Jones, ahead. If the Democrats don’t put money on this horse, it’s their golden opportunity to lose.

Developing overnight was Jeff Session's placating Donald Trump to keep his job. Sessions, on thin ice since recusing himself from the Russia investigation, is apparently looking into appointing special counsel on the Clinton Foundation and the Obama-era Uranium One deal. Commence eye-roll since this is what happens when you get a conspiracy theorist-in-chief.

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newstfionline · 7 years ago

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RIP the Trans-Atlantic Alliance, 1945-2018

By James Traub, Foreign Policy, May 11, 2018

The Atlantic alliance, built to contain the Soviet Union in the aftermath of World War II, began to die when the Cold War ended. What kept it alive over the last three decades has been less strategic necessity than a convergence of values--the values of the liberal postwar order. Now, the senior partner of the alliance, the United States, has lost interest in those values. The alliance was already a corpse, but Donald Trump drove the last nail into its coffin when he decided this week to withdraw from the nuclear deal with Iran.

What now? The United States will lurch from crisis to crisis, but Europe faces more existential questions: It has been expelled from the garden--albeit a very thorny one--maintained by U.S. military and diplomatic power and now must build a new home of its own. The European diplomats, ex-diplomats, and scholars I have spent the last few days talking to agree on that much. They’re less sure whether Europe is up to the task.

Am I--and my interlocutors--inflating a very bad moment into a mortal one? Perhaps that would be true if the problem were only Trump. In fact, Europe ceased to be the world’s geostrategic center when the Soviet menace disappeared. The humanitarian crises of the next decade reinforced the shared values of Western nations, but 9/11 abruptly diverted the United States to an obsessive focus on the Middle East. Though Barack Obama restored the shared faith in multilateralism and institutions that George W. Bush had breached, his own interests lay more in the Pacific. He yearned to pivot away from the yawning pit of the Arab world to Asia. Obama wanted the United States to face toward the future, not the past.

The American people, meanwhile, preferred to face home. They wanted a pivot to America, and they voted for the candidate who promised to deliver it. It has thus fallen to Trump to deliver the coup de grâce to the alliance that has defined the postwar world. The Iran decision followed his decision to impose tariffs on European aluminum and steel, which followed his decision to withdraw from the Paris climate accords. Trump is no more contemptuous toward European allies than Asian or Latin ones; the only opinion to which he defers is that of his base.

François Delattre, France’s ambassador to the United Nations, says he regards the Iran decision as “the best illustration of the Jacksonian moment the United States is going through--the uni-isolationist moment.” A new president, he concedes, might restore multilateralism. But, Delattre adds, “I am personally afraid the withdrawal is durable. The disengagement started before President Trump, and I am afraid it will last after him.”

The Iran decision has resonated among European leaders as none of Trump’s previous follies has. First, Europeans regard the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, as the pact is called, as the foremost proof of their capacity to act coherently and effectively. The Iran diplomacy came hard on the heels of the debacle over the Iraq War, when a divided Europe watched a U.S. president stumble into disaster. “Iran was the opposite of that,” says Mark Leonard, the director of the European Council on Foreign Relations. “Instead of standing blinded in the headlights of American policy, Europe figured out what its own interests were.” European diplomats negotiated with the Iranians when the Bush administration refused to do so, designing a package of sanctions and incentives ultimately adopted and pushed through the U.N. Security Council by Obama.

Europe hoped to reduce tensions in the Middle East by drawing Iran out of its revolutionary shell. And it succeeded. The deal, Leonard says, was a “massive source of pride.”

As a simple matter of geographical proximity, Europe is threatened by conflict in the Middle East as the United States is not. The tidal wave of asylum-seekers from Syria in 2015 upended European politics and exposed a popular vein of xenophobia and illiberalism that has thrown a terrible scare into European elites. Europe simply cannot afford to follow the American lead if the United States is prepared to sow further chaos in the region.

Of course, Europe’s old reputation for deference and submission to the United States was reinforced by the spectacle of French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel visiting the White House in the hope of propitiating the First Bully and then being dismissed with scarcely a “by your leave”--and oh, by the way, we’re still coming after your steel industry. But perhaps Europe’s leaders needed the shock. Hours after Trump’s announcement, Macron, Merkel, and British Prime Minister Theresa May issued a joint statement reminding the world that the deal had been “unanimously endorsed by the U.N. Security Council” and thus remained “the binding international legal framework” on Iran’s nuclear program. European Council President Donald Tusk announced that Trump’s Iran and trade policies “will meet a united European approach.”

The fur will fly if the United States goes ahead with secondary sanctions targeting European companies that continue to do business with Iran. Given the current bellicose mood in Washington, there is good reason to think that it will do so. Hours after assuming his post as U.S. ambassador in Berlin, Richard Grenell tweeted, “German companies doing business in Iran should wind down operations immediately.” That would be Europe’s put-up-or-shut-up moment. “We’re going to have to treat the U.S. as a hostile power,” Leonard says. “We might have to introduce countermeasures against U.S. companies.” The mind reels. No, the heart breaks.

Neither side has an incentive to widen the breach. Some major European firms may withdraw from the Iranian market, even as European bankers potentially devise an end run around the U.S. financial system that will blunt the effect of secondary sanctions. Still, a combination of U.S. tariffs and sanctions may provoke the European Union to erect barriers against American products and services in Europe, leading to a trade war between the erstwhile partners.

#Trans-Atlantic alliance #US-EU relations

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investmart007 · 7 years ago

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WASHINGTON | The Latest: Petraeus says McCain 'had the backs' of troops

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WASHINGTON | The Latest: Petraeus says McCain 'had the backs' of troops

WASHINGTON — The Latest on the death of Sen. John McCain (all times local): 10:25 a.m.

Retired Gen. David Petraeus is honoring Sen. John McCain as a distinguished veteran who always “had the backs” of military service members.

He says McCain was also very forthright in standing up against torture, working to limit the enhanced interrogation of detainees.

The 81-year-old McCain died Saturday of brain cancer at his ranch in Arizona. ___

9:55 a.m. Sen. Susan Collins is remembering John McCain’s momentous vote against their party’s effort to repeal the Obama-era health law. The Maine Republican tells CNN’s “State of the Union” that she and GOP colleague Lisa Murkowski of Alaska — both repeal opponents — spoke to McCain before the July 2017 vote because they knew he was struggling with the decision.

McCain later dramatically held up his hand and flicked his thumb down, killing the measure.

The 81-year-old Arizona Republican died Saturday of brain cancer. ___ 8:45 a.m. German Chancellor Angela Merkel is paying tribute to Sen. John McCain as “one of the great political personalities of our time.” The 81-year-old Republican senator died at his ranch in Arizona on Saturday after a yearlong battle with brain cancer. Merkel offered her condolences in a statement tweeted Sunday by her spokesman, Steffen Seibert.

She says that McCain was “a tireless fighter for a strong trans-Atlantic alliance; his significance went well beyond his own country.” Merkel says, “John McCain was led by the firm conviction that the sense of all political work lies in service to freedom, democracy and the rule of law. His death is a loss to all those who share this conviction.” ___

7:25 a.m. People in Vietnam are remembering Sen. John McCain as having played an important role in normalizing relations between their country and the United States.

Another resident, Hoang Thi Trang, says that to the Vietnamese people, McCain “was not only a companion in resolving postwar issues, but also a friend.” ___

6:40 a.m. French President Emmanuel Macron (eh-mahn-yoo-EHL’ mah-KROHN’) is paying tribute to the late John McCain and says the senator’s voice will be missed.

Macron has tweeted in English that McCain “was a true American hero. He devoted his entire life to his country.” McCain died Saturday at age 81. ___

5:45 a.m. Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen has expressed her condolences over the death of Sen. John McCain, saying she will remember him as a friend and a fighter.

Taiwan’s official Central News Agency said Sunday that Tsai thanked McCain for endorsing bills in Congress that supported Taiwan and for defending democracy around the world. Tsai said his death marked the “great loss of an important friend of Taiwan” in the U.S.

5:40 a.m. Germany’s foreign minister says Sen. John McCain stood for an America that is a “reliable” partner.

Foreign Minister Heiko Maas paid tribute to the Republican senator in a statement issued in Berlin on Sunday. McCain died at his ranch in Arizona on Saturday after a yearlong battle with brain cancer. Maas said that “he stood for an America that is a reliable and close partner. An America that takes responsibility for others out of strength, and stands by its values and principles even in difficult moments — and bases its claim to leadership on that.” He added that “we will remember his voice.” ___

5:40 a.m. Pakistan has offered its condolences over the death of U.S. Sen. John McCain, saying he will be “greatly missed.”

4 a.m. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says his country salutes Sen. John McCain as a “great American patriot and a great supporter of Israel.”

Netanyahu says Sunday he is deeply saddened by McCain’s passing at the age of 81 and will always treasure his friendship. McCain was a frequent visitor to Israel who backed it in the Senate and strongly opposed the nuclear ambitions and militancy of its archrival Iran.

Netanyahu says McCain’s “support for Israel never wavered. It sprang from his belief in democracy and freedom.” Other tributes poured in from across the Israeli political spectrum. Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman called McCain one of Israel’s greatest friends. Yair Lapid, head of the opposition Yesh Atid Party, lauded McCain as “a soldier with integrity in a world of politicians.” ___

Anderson, who is an unaffiliated voter, says she respected how McCain stood up for his own ideas. “The word that pops into my head the most with him is ‘integrity,’ ” she said.

McCain is expected to be honored in Arizona and in Washington before being laid to rest at the U.S. Naval Academy Cemetery in Annapolis, Maryland. ___

By Associated Press

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