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ericfruits · 5 years ago

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Donald Trump plays the role of warm-up act to Narendra Modi

“THIS IS extraordinary, unprecedented,” said Narendra Modi, before a whooping crowd of 50,000 in a stadium in Houston. The Indian prime minister was not wrong. He has appeared before plenty of big rallies of his diaspora supporters, in America, Britain, Australia and many points in between. In America it is usually up-and-coming politicians who join Mr Modi for the shows. At Madison Square Gardens in 2014, his first big foreign hoop-la, for example, Nikki Haley and Cory Booker were among over a dozen American politicians to show up.

What was new about the “Howdy, Modi!” event on September 22nd was that America’s president was ready to serve as such a warm-up act for Mr Modi. At this one Donald Trump, who usually expects to dominate events where adoring, fired-up crowds roar their support, smiled awkwardly as the stadium chanted “Mo-di, Mo-di”.

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As the two men stood side-by-side, the Indian leader graciously spoke in English (though he sprinkled in the odd admiring Hindi phrase, talking favourably, for example, about the “Trump Sarkar”, or Trump government). Mr Modi played the role of host smoothly. He praised his guest for making the American economy “strong again”, then told Mr Trump his presence was a “testimony” to the friendship of the two great democracies. It sounded rather as if he were welcoming an American who had made a flying visit to New Delhi.

Mr Trump was not the only American politician there. At least 20 members of Congress, both Democrats and Republicans, also showed up in Houston. These included the two Texas senators, Ted Cruz and John Cornyn. What did each side expect to gain from the shindig?

For Mr Modi the benefits are clear. Indian leaders like to show they have sway with America. He boasted that “hundreds of millions” of people at home were watching this particular triumph. As Milan Vaishnav at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a think-tank, says, it all looked like a nice diplomatic coup for him, suggesting that ties between India and America have reached a new level and that Indian-Americans are becoming a force to be reckoned with and therefore to be flattered.

This was quite a turnaround for the prime minister. For almost a decade he was denied a visa to visit America, because of his alleged role in the Gujarat riots in 2002, which left hundreds of people, mainly Muslims, dead. This was politely forgotten. As was a more recent controversy. In August Mr Modi revoked the long-established autonomy of Kashmir and sent in 40,000 extra troops. A military lockdown, including a near total press blackout and the detention without trial of political opponents, has been in place since then, with no end in sight. Would the world’s second-biggest democracy object to this? Not at all. Instead Mr Trump hugged Mr Modi and held his hands.

For Mr Trump the rewards were harder to see. He loves standing in front of big crowds chanting “USA, USA”; he may think he gained some slender political advantage from the rally. Mr Trump and his team are always looking for opportunities to prove that he is not a racist, something he is regularly accused of. The public adulation of lots of Indian-Americans could help with that. Mr Trump also likes to praise leaders who he sees as mini-Trumps, like Boris Johnson, Britain’s prime minister, or Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil’s president. Mr Modi has been at politics for far longer than Mr Trump, but the president may see him as part of the league of nationalists with him, of course, at the head.

Certainly in terms of vote-harvesting, the opportunity for Mr Trump looks meagre. There are only 4m Indian-Americans nationwide. Exclude children, and those who are not yet citizens, and there are only 1m Indian-American voters. Many of them live in states that offer thin pickings to Republicans, such as California, Illinois and New York. But such voters could matter in Texas, for example. About 150,000 Indian-Americans live in the Houston area. They could in theory help Republicans fend off Democrat gains in urban and suburban Texas, whether in 2020 or beyond.

Indian-Americans could also matter for their influence beyond the voting booth as emerging donors and, more generally, as an unusually successful minority group that is over-represented in professional jobs, including as journalists, academics, think-tank staff, congressional staff, heads of companies and the like. Indian-Americans often say they should develop the sort of influence on politics that Jewish-Americans are sometimes said to have.

Yet many Indian-Americans do not trust Mr Trump. In 2016 77% of them voted for Hillary Clinton over him, and their affections have not obviously changed much since then. Many think Mr Trump is a xenophobe who wants to make it harder for Indian students to reach American universities, or for brainy graduates to work in America as engineers. Mr Trump has also scrapped trade preferences, putting up the price of Indian steel and aluminium exports to America, though this might be addressed in a bilateral trade deals.

After a visit in July by Pakistan’s sweet-talking leader, Imran Khan, Mr Trump claimed he had been asked by India to mediate with Pakistan over Kashmir. That sort of thing is considered offensive in India, which insists no foreign power has any role to play in its “domestic” issues, and Mr Trump was swiftly rebuffed. A big rally in Houston will not erase all that overnight. Mr Modi looks to have got the best end of this particular deal.

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