#M20 Lorry Park
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Folkestone Seafront + Harbour Development • 2023
The latest proposals for the development of the Folkestone seafront and harbour have been announced - and have been met with much local hostility...It's not possible for nothing to happen; and it's not possible for whatever happens to be uneconomic, that would be unsustainable.
It's worth baring in mind that the development is a private scheme strategically directed by Roger de Haan.
The proposals for development are based on the heights, masses and densities approved in planning negotiations with the local council. The maximums are defined by what already exists locally; the Grand Burstin Hotel, that faces the harbour. Nothing proposed is bigger than the Hotel.
Historically, the seafront and harbour parts of the town provided the working and popular leisure facilities to serve those passing through and visiting. When we first arrived in Folkestone, the harbour was an industrial zone with a lorry park and railway station. On the seafront was a night club and fun fair and crazy golf. The boating lake and swimming pool were long gone. Later, the outer-harbour was closed and the industrial units allowed to become derelict. This killed the town by consolidating and displacing traffic to Eurotunnel and Dover.
The site is brown-field and has never not been in a process of redevelopment. In my lifetime, the development proposals have been for a supermarket and multi-storey carpark; for a super-casino, flats and multi-storey carpark; and for mixed-use masterplans by Norman Foster and Terry Farrell.
These various proposals have mostly been held in check by external economic and other circumstances - the financial crisis of 2007, Brexit and Covid 19 etc etc. The new proposals are likely to be re-drawn as AI, climate change and working-from-home each change the development landscape.
Based on the progress so far, I would guess that the development will take maybe 25 years to complete. It will certainly not arrive fully-formed overnight. Accordingly there is plenty of opportunity and time to reconfigure and recalibrate the proposals as circumstances demand.
The first phases of re-development have focussed on the harbour arm and the first of several blocks of flats. These are top-quality and high-spec projects that are, by local standards, of the very best quality. There is no reason to believe that anything built now won't be at least as good.
The regeneration of Folkestone is being directed across a number of distinct but related stream of developments in education, sports, culture and property. This multi-faceted development plan is aligned with Folkestone's position on HS1 (one hour from KX/StP) and the expansion of the town along the M20 corridor.
Having observed, at close quarters, the redevelopment of the Greenwich Peninsula and of the KX/StP area, I am very encouraged by the quality of strategic and design-thinking evident in the newly announced proposals.
Hurrah for Folkestone.
NB the original supermarket and carpark development was eventually built in the town centre as a multi-storey carpark with a supermarket attached and with a row of oversized retail units beneath.
Supplemental 30/08
We are several iterations into the scheme now and what has been proposed, so far, are big boxes (Foster), small boxes (Farrell) and, now, a bit of variety. Everything will be OK...
Supplemental 06/09
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Rabid traffic wardens descend on M20 car park desperate to get their ticket fix
Rabid traffic wardens descend on M20 car park desperate to get their ticket fix #M20 #satire #spoofnews #fakenews #humor #comedy
By Acton Murry Traffic wardens desperate to get their daily fix of truly f**king up someone’s day have descended ‘like a plague of locusts’ on the newly formed M20 lorry park. Many have had to go weeks or even months without writing a ticket. The lorry park, which is the first of the UKs promised big infrastructure projects, can currently be seen from space. With advocates boasting that this…
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Dover queues due to shortage of cross-Channel ferries
Dover queues due to shortage of cross-Channel ferries
Part of the M20 is turned into a lorry park as motorists face tailbacks around Dover. Source link
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Dover queues due to shortage of cross-Channel ferries
Dover queues due to shortage of cross-Channel ferries
Part of the M20 is turned into a lorry park as motorists face tailbacks around Dover.
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A giant 13-mile lorry park on the M20 could last for years in a no-deal Brexit situation, a council has warned.
An impact assessment by Dover District Council has expressed concern over how ports would cope with the potential situation.
The document is critical of the slow pace of work on a "temporary" scheme, named Operation Brock, and said "there does not appear to be a Plan B".
Operation Stack is currently used on closed sections of the M20 in Kent, where lorries park while waiting to cross the English Channel when traffic is disrupted.
The new strategy, Operation Brock, plans to use a contraflow to keep the roads open when problems arise.
The Dover council report stated: "A 13-mile stretch of the coast-bound section of the M20, between junction eight near Maidstone and junction nine near Ashford, will be earmarked to hold heavy goods vehicles, in what will effectively become a giant temporary lorry park holding around 2,000 lorries.
"It is likely a permanent solution will not be in place for many years if enacted through current planning processes and procedures."
The report, released under a Freedom of Information request, said "there could be gridlock around the town" if Brexit "ends up creating regulatory and tariff barriers between the UK and the EU".
"Customs checks on imports from outside the common market can take between five minutes to 45 minutes per vehicle," it added.
"Port officials have warned that increasing the average time it takes to clear customs by as little as two minutes could lead to 17-mile traffic jams."
More than 10,000 freight vehicles pass through Dover on peak days as it handles one sixth of the UK's total trade in goods with a value of £119bn per year.
In 2015, queues of 4,600 lorries stretched back 30 miles and the daily cost to the UK economy was estimated at £250m.
#brexit#uk politics#port of dover were warning about this in 2016 but what do they know#bloody experts /s
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That’s what happens when you turn the M20 into a giant lorry park…..
Tory MP puts his foot in it. Is the poo OK?
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Picture Of The Day
Picture Of The Day
Lorries are seen parked on the M20 motorway, as EU countries impose a travel ban from the UK following the coronavirus outbreak, near Ashford, Britain, December 22, 2020. REUTERS/Simon Dawson WNU Editor: The above picture came from this photo-gallery …. Top Photos of the Day (Reuters).
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COVID-19: Army to help test lorry drivers in deal to unblock France travel ban | Politics News
COVID-19: Army to help test lorry drivers in deal to unblock France travel ban | Politics News
A deal to unblock travel with France following a shutdown over the new coronavirus variant could come later today, Sky News understands. The solution would involve rapid turnaround lateral flow tests being conducted on lorry drivers with the help of the military. More than 1,500 hauliers are queuing on the M20 or parked at Kent’s Manston Airport, following France’s decision to stop anyone…
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New Post has been published on https://freenews.today/2020/12/21/covid-19-details-of-plan-to-reopen-france-border-with-the-uk-could-soon-be-announced/
COVID-19: Details of plan to reopen France border with the UK could soon be announced
Talks with France on reopening full trade and transport across the Channel are “ongoing” and “details of a plan could be announced as early as today”, Sky News has learned.
France shut its border with the UK for 48 hours on Sunday night, prompting delays for freight lorries heading across the Channel as a variant of coronavirus spreads across the UK.
The closure is due to end at tonight at 11pm UK-time.
Government sources have said discussions with the French government are “ongoing”.
And a Downing Street source told Sky News this morning: “Still working on details of a plan – could be announced as early as today.”
The M20 in Kent was closed on Monday night to allow for the implementation of Operation Brock – contingency measures which involve using a moveable barrier to keep traffic moving on the motorway whenever there is disruption at the Channel – as confusion surrounded how many lorries were impacted by the border shutdown.
Highways England had earlier said Operation Brock would replace Operation Stack, which was activated overnight on Sunday, with hauliers “advised to avoid travelling to Kent as disruption could last for several days”.
It said Operation Brock “opens up more of the road network” in the county “because it means traffic can continue to move in both directions on the M20 whereas Stack effectively closes it to coastbound traffic”.
Mr Johnson said at a Downing Street news briefing the number of lorries waiting on the M20 had been reduced from 500 to 170, but Highways England later said Kent Police had told them there were 900 lorries parked on the motorway as of 6pm on Monday.
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‘We are very heavily reliant on imports from Europe’
The PM said he had spoken with French President Emmanuel Macron and both sides are working to “unblock the flow of trade as fast as possible”, as well as chairing a meeting of the government’s emergency COBRA committee.
The closure of cross-Channel routes alarmed businesses, including those relying on the trouble-free passage of produce into the UK, as well as holidaymakers looking to leave for the continent – all with the added complication of the end of the Brexit transition period on 31 December.
Supermarket giant Sainsbury’s warned that disruption in Kent could hit supplies of lettuce, some salad leaves, cauliflowers, broccoli and citrus fruit, all of which are imported from mainland Europe in the winter.
Britons have been told to continue shopping normally.
Addressing a Downing Street news conference, Boris Johnson said the “vast majority” of food and medical supplies are unaffected by the move.
The emergence of the new variant, which could be up to 70% more transmissible than other variants of coronavirus, has also seen a raft of countries introduce travel bans from the UK.
The Northern Ireland Executive held an emergency late-night meeting amid a row over whether a Great Britain travel ban should be introduced, proposed by Sinn Fein but voted down by the executive.
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‘Our ferries are continuing to operate’: Dover port chief
Speaking about the variant of coronavirus that is spreading across the UK, the government’s chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance said at the Downing Street briefing: “The evidence on this virus is that it spreads easily, it’s more transmissible, we absolutely need to make sure we have the right level of restrictions in place.
“I think it is likely that this will grow in numbers of the variant across the country and I think it’s likely, therefore, that measures will need to be increased in some places, in due course, not reduced.”
The New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag) met again on Monday to consider the new variant and said, while it does not appear to alter the course of the disease, it does spread more easily.
“That again reinforces the point that it’s important to get ahead of this and to make sure that the tiering system is adequate to stop things going, and not to watch it and react in retrospect,” Sir Patrick said.
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Given the “inevitable mixing” over Christmas “I think there will be some increases in numbers over the next few weeks”, he added.
The discovery of the variant and worries about its spread saw the prime minister announce a new Tier 4 of COVID-19 restrictions for parts of England at the weekend, effectively cancelling Christmas plans for millions.
Mr Johnson also reduced the planned five-day relaxation of restrictions over the festive period to just Christmas Day.
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> #The great Brexit blame game
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> **Bosses and ministers are already trading recriminations as a chaotic split looms**
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> John Collingridge and Jill Treanor
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> Sunday October 18 2020, 12.01am BST, The Sunday Times
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> * 74: Days left to reach a deal with Brussels before the UK leaves the EU
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> * 7,000: Number of lorries that could queue in Kent to cross the Channel in the worst-case scenario
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> * 50,000: Customs agents that will be needed to process paperwork
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> For the past four years, Rob Hollyman has been trying to work out what Brexit will mean for haulage firms such as his that cross the Channel daily. With 74 days until the end of the transition period, Hollyman, a director of Essex-based Youngs Transportation and Logistics, is still unsure.
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> A 40-year industry veteran, he has attended seminars, phoned government departments, scoured the internet and even tweeted at ministers, including Michael Gove, in an effort to understand the practicalities of moving goods across the border with the EU from next year.
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> “We don’t know what permits we are going to need,” said Hollyman, who runs a fleet of about 120 lorries. “You get these know-nothings [in government] who say, ‘You’ve got to get yourself prepared.’ How on earth do you prepare for something when you can’t find out what you need to prepare for? How can I get my vehicles ready to go over the water when I don’t know what documents are needed?”
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> Youngs is one of thousands of companies facing with trepidation the end of decades of seamless trading with the EU on January 1. Four years of negotiations, planning and investment in new systems are about to be put to the test — in the middle of the deepest economic crisis for decades. Hopes that it will be a painless transition, thanks to a deal that former international trade secretary Liam Fox claimed would be “one of the easiest in human history”, are evaporating fast.
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> The latest round of talks ended in acrimony last week. It remains unclear on what terms Britain will soon trade with its biggest partner — and whether it is too late to avoid chaos. Now, with the potential for disruption growing as the clock runs down, recriminations are flying.
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> Since the summer, the government has been trying to encourage businesses to prepare for the end of the transition period, plastering billboards and taking out ads asking: “Is your business ready for the UK’s new start?” That has been distilled into a simple message: “Check, change, go”. Many companies complain the simplicity is a far cry from the reality.
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> A change of tone has been noted in the government’s messaging in recent weeks, which some bosses believe is an attempt to pin the blame on “unprepared” businesses. “It’s all about the blame game,” said a chief executive. Last month, a leaked letter from Gove, who is responsible for Brexit planning, warned of queues of up to 7,000 lorries at Dover in a worst-case scenario. Gove told MPs that the government had surveyed businesses and found that 43% believed the transition period would be extended, granting them continued access to the single market, and that only 24% believed they were fully ready. “The consequences of a lack of business preparedness will be not just economic opportunities missed for those companies that don’t prepare, but potentially much wider disruption,” said Gove.
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> Businesses, ravaged by Covid-19, today called for a deal. “Now is the time for historic political leadership,” said the Confederation of British Industry and 71 professional bodies in a joint statement.
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> Last week, the blame game escalated when Treasury and Cabinet Office minister Lord Agnew accused businesses of taking a “head-in-the-sand approach”. “The traders are not as ready as they should be,” he said, adding that they “really must engage in a more energetic way”. His comments to the Treasury select committee reflected a growing fear that, even if a last-minute deal is struck, the economy is not ready for the changes about to hit it. Gove is among leading voices in the cabinet warning of the perils of an abrupt end to trading with the EU if no deal is struck, which would result in World Trade Organisation tariffs.
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> Nowhere are those perils more evident than in Kent, where officials plan to install portable toilets along the M20 leading to Dover in anticipation of a queue of vehicles: 1,000 lorries, each nearly 60ft long, would stretch 11 miles.
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> The reams of paperwork from customs declarations mean that about 50,000 customs agents — who would be hired by businesses to fill in forms — are needed. But the government has refused to say how many have been recruited. A 66-acre car park is being built alongside the M20 in Ashford to handle the overflow of up to 1,700 lorries. A new border will be created for international hauliers hoping to travel through Kent to Dover, with a “Kent access permit” needed to enter. Those without one face a £300 fine.
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> Richard Burnett, chief executive of the Road Haulage Association, said it had been warning of the need for more customs agents for more than 18 months. The government finally published a “border operating model” — a guide to how the border will work — in July, but Burnett said “while it tells you what to do, it doesn’t tell you how to do it”.
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> “Having lived and breathed the past four years, it’s been a shambles,” he said. “We’ve been asking the same questions — it’s groundhog day. Our industry does nothing but work hard to keep things moving. We have not got time to ensure people are trained from a customs perspective, and have not got sufficient customs agents to absorb the demand. If you can’t find a customs agent and try to send your truck without the appropriate paperwork, it will get turned around in Kent or Calais.”
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> Myriad issues remain unresolved elsewhere. Car-makers, which rely on the just-in-time supply of millions of parts delivered by lorries, could see production lines grind to a halt if parts are caught in traffic jams at the border — a possibility even if a deal is struck.
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> BMW’s Mini factory at Cowley, Oxford, receives about 120 lorries a day from the EU, containing some of the three million parts it uses daily. Jaguar Land Rover, Britain’s biggest car-maker with factories across the Midlands, uses up to 25 million parts a day in the UK, up to half of which come from abroad.
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> That makes stockpiling beyond a couple of days impossible. According to Honda in Swindon, nine days of stock would require a warehouse of 300,000 square metres — which would make it one of the biggest buildings on the planet.
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> WTO terms mean tariffs of 10% will be imposed on cars sold to Europe, or tariffs of 4.5% applied on the parts they import from the Continent.
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> Another hideously complex issue about which car bosses have been warning for almost four years is “rules of origin” — determining where a car’s parts come from. Typically, Europe demands that at least 60% of a car by value must originate from the EU and the new trading partner to qualify for tariff-free trade.
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> Even if there is a deal to keep tariffs at zero, car-makers are still likely to have to prove that 60% of their parts, which may have crossed multiple borders, originate from the UK and EU. That leaves Britain’s car factories with a huge headache, especially when it comes to electric vehicles: many of their parts, such as batteries and motors, are imported from Japan and elsewhere in Asia. The BBC reported that the car industry had asked for parts from Japan and Turkey to be treated as British in a trade deal — a plea that was rejected.
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> Mike Hawes, chief executive of the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), said Brexit had “always been about damage limitation” for the car industry. “The sector has been preparing for it since 2016, yet even now we remain hampered by a lack of clarity on the exact nature of our future trading relationship with Europe,” he said.
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> “The prospect of trading on WTO terms in 74 days is still very real and no amount of preparation could mitigate the catastrophic impact this will have on the sector — a fact about which we have been warning the government for years.”
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> Whole chunks of the economy are on tenterhooks over the shape of any deal. An agreement on data adequacy — which could affect bank transfers and selling and buying online — hinges on the trade deal. The UK is quitting the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), meaning the UK’s Civil Aviation Authority will become responsible for certifying plane parts — and convincing other nations that its standards match EASA’s. Without that mutual reassurance, aerospace manufacturing could be at risk.
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> Northern Ireland and its access to goods — particularly food — is another big problem. The government has spent £200m helping companies with the bureaucracy of shipping goods from Britain to Northern Ireland. But food manufacturers that ship across the Irish Sea, faced with the cost and bureaucracy of having to fill out hundreds of customs declarations for every lorry, are considering retreating from Northern Ireland, at least for the first few months of 2021. Businesses shipping to Northern Ireland will face a huge amount of paperwork, from customs declarations to export health certificates on meat.
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> Stephen Phipson, chief executive of manufacturers’ trade body Make UK, said: “Because businesses are engulfed in surviving the pandemic, they are assuming that if the prime minister sticks to his commitments and does a deal, there’s nothing to do. Actually, there are so many changes, even with a deal.”
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> In the City, “passporting” — the system the UK relied on when it was part of the 28-nation bloc that allows businesses to conduct financial services seamlessly across borders — is coming to an end. Now the focus is on “equivalence”, which allows trading across borders but is not so comprehensive.
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> ^^Part ^^2
> Rachel Kent, head of financial services regulation at law firm Hogan Lovells, said financial companies doing significant business in the EU had been forced to set up subsidiaries on the Continent. “For some the cost is too great, and they will have no option but to terminate their client arrangements,” she said.
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> Clients of UK-based banks need new documentation so they can keep dealing with EU entities. Processing payments — such as direct debits — has also required changes. Ignoring the changes and continuing to trade on current terms could result in criminal charges.
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> Josh Hardie, CBI deputy director general, said: “Businesses are trying to prepare but they face huge barriers, whether that is the impact of the virus or whether it is clarity about what they are preparing for. The single biggest way of accelerating preparation is to get a deal.”
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New Post has been published on https://toldnews.com/business/budget-cuts-threaten-brexit-ferry-plan/
Budget cuts threaten Brexit ferry plan
Image copyright Getty Images
Thanet District Council will vote on Thursday on whether to cut £630,000 of spending on the Port of Ramsgate.
The cuts would mean it would not be possible to run a roll-on roll-off ferry service between Ramsgate and Ostend if there was a hard Brexit.
The Department for Transport (DfT) has awarded a £13.8m contract to Seaborne Freight to run the service.
The DfT said it was continuing to talk to Thanet Council about plans to re-establish ferry services.
The council has been pumping money into the port to keep it in a state of readiness for ferry operations.
The extra ferries from Ramsgate would relieve pressure on the Port of Dover in the event of a no-deal Brexit. They would also divert traffic away from the M20, which may have to be used as an emergency lorry park if backlogs develop at the border.
But the contract with Seaborne to run the service is controversial because it has no ships and has never run a ferry service before.
And last month it was discovered that the terms and conditions on its website seemed to have been copied from a takeaway restaurant.
The mayor of Ostend has also said it would be impossible to have a new service up and running by the end of March, although it is believed Seaborne has paid to have Ramsgate harbour dredged so that it can take larger ships.
Thanet District Council said that it had to find large savings to meet its medium term financial strategy and balance its budget.
It added that if a new deal to provide a Ramsgate to Ostend service was not signed, the proposed cuts would be voted on later today.
It appears that Thanet Council is caught in a bind. It can’t afford to spend this money on the port’s facilities if no ferries use them, but the ferries will only run if there is a hard Brexit, something the Government is committed to avoiding.
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Considering the criticism of the deal with Seaborne Freight already, cuts by the council which make it impossible to run the service at all are likely to be very embarrassing for the Government.
The DfT said it was a recommendation that had been put forward for a decision by councillors as elected members. It added that it continued to have conversations with a number of stakeholders including Thanet Council over any plans to re-establish ferry services at the Port of Ramsgate.
Ramsgate last ran a regular ferry service to and from the Continent in 2013. Its harbour can take three roll-on roll-off ferries at a time and it has been keen to restart operations.
At the moment the port is mainly being used to support off-shore wind turbines and import cars, but reopening Ramsgate as a major ferry port has been controversial with many residents saying they are concerned about the increase in traffic that it would involve.
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No-deal Brexit would bring 'risks and disruption' with 'delays for businesses', admits Dominic Raab
Brexit secretary talks of 'contraflow systems on the M20' - appearing to confirm plans for lorries to be parked for many miles en route to Dover from The Independent - UK https://ift.tt/2MrmPbX from Blogger https://ift.tt/2x8xILc
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Dorothy and Alice I’ve seen some weird shit shirt
Dorothy and Alice I’ve seen some weird shit shirt
Can’t wait Dorothy and Alice I’ve seen some weird shit shirt’s going to be so much better out of europe and in control of our borders no one can get through What’s the point of upgrading the M20 so as to allow additional parking for lorries? Buy it: https://isportstees.com/trending-shirts/dorothy-alice-ive-seen-weird-shit-shirt/ Home: isportstees.com
Dorothy and Alice I’ve seen some weird shit…
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M20 South bound from Maidstone is a car park for lorries. Dover is an issue. #m20 #dover #operationstack https://www.instagram.com/p/CFM_0xfAtWh/?igshid=1fzv5becvpacr
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Would no-deal Brexit be a disaster? Probably not – and here’s why
From The Spectator https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/07/would-no-deal-brexit-be-a-disaster-probably-not-and-heres-why/
The government is better prepared than it has let on
Anthony Browne
14 July 2019
“How bad would a no-deal Brexit really be? This is now perhaps the most important question in politics, and the one provoking greatest disagreement. The answer will help decide whether parliament allows Brexit to happen, and whether Tory MPs bring down their own government. If they think calamity would follow, patriotic rebels might risk a general election to stop the Tories. But what if it would not be so bad? And is there any way of finding out?
Almost everyone accepts it will cause problems, but views range from manageable to ‘national suicide’. It is difficult to predict complex events without historic precedent, but there are other reasons for the divergent views. The first is that there is not a single ‘no deal’, but a whole spectrum. Leaving the EU with no deal (and no preparation) would indeed be ‘crashing out’. But leaving with no deal in, say, 2022, with government and business having prepared meticulously for three years, would be less dramatic. It is a moving target: given the preparations, no-deal Brexit now would be less damaging than a year ago.
Then there is the ‘millennium bug effect’. Before 2000, computer companies had an incentive to talk up the problem of everyone’s systems crashing when dates moved from 12/12/99 to 1/1/00. No one could tell for sure how bad it would be, the media loved an apocalyptic story and we had warnings of aircraft falling out of the sky. But despite the frenzy about the end of days, nothing happened. With no-deal Brexit, there are groups, including those wanting to block Brexit, who have an incentive to talk up problems and a media hungry for bad news.
The government has given conflicting signals about no deal, with parts of it sounding the alarm. ‘It was definitely deliberate to keep all the no-deal planning invisible,’ one former Brexit minister told me. It means the government is better prepared than is recognised — a source of irritation for the planners, who are never given credit for their success. A frustrated civil servant wrote anonymously in the Daily Telegraph in December: ‘Very detailed plans have been proposed, assessed, analysed to death and … are now being executed.’
So what are the preparations? Last year the French ports of Calais and Boulogne weren’t ready, leading to predictions of the M20 becoming a lorry park, and shortages of food and drugs. But Calais has now stepped up the number of checkpoints, employed 700 customs staff, and bought scanners which check lorries as they drive past. The president of the Port Boulogne Calais has said ‘there will not be any delay’ in a no-deal Brexit. This will disappoint Dutch ports, which have been gearing up to take business from France.
On the UK side, government has rolled out two computer systems to cope with new customs controls. It has set up an inland clearing site for lorries in Milton Keynes, to keep them away from ports. Major supermarkets have reassured ministers they have diversified supplies enough that food will remain on the shelves. Despite the concern about car manufacturing, one of Britain’s best-known car companies has told government it can cope. In an act of belts and braces, NHS stockpiling ensures that even if the border preparations failed, patients still get drugs. Drugs companies tell me they have two years’ of supplies. ‘The scare stories about food and drugs are completely unjustified,’ one planner told me.
When I was chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, I convened the meetings of industry leaders in the wake of the referendum to decide how to respond. The only responsible position for a major industry is to hope for the best and plan for the worst. We wanted a transition deal, but banks — reluctant to put their fate in the hands of politicians — prepared for no deal. A no-deal Brexit at the time of the referendum would have been a major threat to financial stability, but three years later the international banks have the legal structures, people and capital in place. They can carry on business whether Brexit comes with a deal or without.
It cost banks billions for no immediate benefit, which understandably annoys them, but they are prepared. But they have the cash for such contingency plans: smaller companies don’t and haven’t bothered preparing for no deal. Only about 40 per cent of exporters that need to register for an export number have done so. With more political clarity, that will change quickly.
The EU has been preparing, most noticeably to ensure that haulage, aviation and visa-free tourism can continue. But many preparations have been kept quiet. To be able to export food to the EU, the UK needs recognition as a third-country supplier. The Commission quietly told the UK that in a no-deal Brexit it would immediately give that recognition if the UK stays aligned to EU standards for nine months.
There is then the issue of tariffs with the EU — about 4 per cent on average. They would clearly be bad for trade. But on average they are less than the depreciation of sterling, so exporters would still be more competitive than they were before the referendum. And there are solutions for badly hit sectors. The agricultural sector most potentially affected by Brexit is sheep farming, with 30 per cent of our lamb exported to Europe. But even if the EU imposes 40 per cent tariffs, the government will introduce a compensation scheme to offset it, costing £100 million a year.
That brings us to the £39 billion. No one can agree on how much the UK needs to pay to meet its legal commitments, but it is clearly less than £20 billion. This gives huge fiscal headroom to provide short-term relief. It can also provide a powerful incentive for the EU to agree to tariff-free trade.
The change of leader means the politics of no deal will change. If it’s Boris Johnson, then I suspect (having once advised him) that he’ll press ahead and demand full preparations from the offset. This would strengthen his negotiating position, and reassure voters and MPs, by highlighting how prepared the UK is. Senior civil servants are already planning to switch from Project Fear to Project Reassurance. Mark Sedwill, the Cabinet Secretary, who previously sounded the alarm, said recently the public sector was ‘in pretty good shape’. Business groups should carry on pushing for problems to be tackled, but focus more on helping members prepare.
None of this means that no-deal Brexit will be without turbulence. I supported a deal and still do, but no deal could happen. And if it does?
The preparations show that the former governor of the Bank of England, Lord Mervyn King, was right when he said recently that MPs had ‘lost the plot’ when talking about ‘national suicide’. In an age of uncertainty, that is good to know.”
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Moves to activate Operation Yellowhammer on Monday
Theresa May (pictured in Downing Street today) is heading to Brussels as final No Deal preparations are activated
The Government’s emergency Cobra committee has taken over No Deal preparations today amid plans to activate ‘Operation Yellowhammer’ on Monday.
Yellowhammer is the civil contingencies wing of No Deal and involves putting 3,500 troops on standby, booking space on emergency ferries for NHS drugs and preparing for miles of lorry queues out of Dover.
The plans – dubbed a No Deal ‘doomsday’ scenario – also include Foreign Office teams preparing to help Britons who get stranded in Europe from a dedicated ‘nerve centre’.
Officials have been planning for No Deal for months and activated 320 other contingency plans before Christmas with 101 days to March 29. It included a public information campaign telling citizens to prepare their own families.
The new escalation comes with just eight days until exit is due to happen and with no deal agreed amid deadlock in Parliament.
Cabinet Ministers were told on Tuesday Operation Yellowhammer would be stood up, the Daily Telegraph revealed.
Brexit secretary, Stephen Barclay, told them in a letter: ‘Operation Yellowhammer command and control structures will be enacted fully on 25 March unless a new exit date has been agreed between the UK and the EU.’
He told departments to be ready to make ‘necessary changes’ to their contingency planning to account for an extension, and be ready to ‘re-programme’ certain measures so that they could instead be activated before the new exit date.
Yellowhammer is the civil contingencies wing of No Deal and involves putting 3,500 troops on standby, booking space on emergency ferries for NHS drugs and preparing for miles of lorry queues out of Dover
Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay told Cabinet on Tuesday that Operation Yellowhammer would be stood up on March 25
A Department for Transport source told The Times: ‘Clearly if we are facing a no-deal Brexit on Friday there are going to be issues that require a substantial response and we need to ensure that the department is working in a way that allows us to do that ahead of time.
What does yellowhammer mean and how did civil servants come up with the name?
Yellowhammer is the code name for the work for planning a no deal Brexit carried out by the Civil Contingencies Secretariat (CCS).
It takes its name from a small yellow bird which lives across the UK.
They forage for seeds to eat, breed in May and enjoy singing.
Male yellowhammers learn their songs from their fathers, and over the course of time regional dialects have developed.
In ancient legend the birds were linked to the devil – the intricate patterns on their eggs were said to conceal an evil message.
The Yellowhammer operation works across all Whitehall departments to ensure the UK is able to weather the shock of crashing out of the Brussels bloc.
The word itself is randomly generated by a computer.
The CCS was established in 2011 and works on projects to ensure the UK can handle potentially disruptive change.
Projects similar to Yellowhammer have been carried out to prepare for the 2012 Olympics and the Champions League final.
‘The unknowns are going to be the reaction of other European countries to issues like customs and driving licences. We need to be in a position to respond to issues quickly.’
A government spokesman said: ‘As a responsible government we have been planning and continue to prepare for all eventualities and that includes managing the impacts of a no deal Brexit as they arise.’
European Research Group deputy chairman Mark Francois said in the Commons yesterday Operation Yellowhammer shoudl be stood up immediately.
He said: ‘If that is so and there is no extension, why do we not just vote down the rancid withdrawal agreement and sprint for the line?’
Chris Heaton-Harris, a Brexit minister, told MPs: ‘We do have Operation Yellowhammer, which is working to deliver the biggest peacetime project in the history of the civil service.
‘Leaving the European Union with a deal remains the government’s top priority, but a responsible government must plan for every eventuality including a no-deal scenario, and these preparations are taking place alongside work to deliver on the government’s policy priorities.’
An official report published last month admitted 200,000 firms that trade with the EU are not ready for a no deal Brexit.
The study from the Brexit department also found citizens are ignoring no deal warnings and failing to make sure they are ready for a no deal.
It said no deal would cause delays at the border – potentially meaning shortages and prices rises for some food, particularly fresh produce not in season in Britain.
The report warns panic buying could fuel shortages in foods that are shipped across the Channel.
Foreign Office Minister Alan Duncan revealed the No Deal ‘nerve centre’ that is ready to help stranded UK citizens this week
3,500 troops are on standby for no deal Brexit
Extra personnel could be needed at British ports, at the border or even to help police civil disobedience if a no deal Brexit leads to food shortages or other problems
Defence Secretary Gavin Williamson told MPs last year that 3,500 troops will be ‘held at readiness’ to help with a no-deal Brexit.
The troops are a mix of regulars and reserves and will be held on bases to be deployed as needed as Britain leaves the EU.
Extra personnel could be needed at British ports, at the border or even to help police civil disobedience if a no deal Brexit leads to food shortages or other problems.
Downing Street insisted the use of soldiers is common – pointing to how troops helped out successfully in the running of the Olympics.
Speaking in the Commons when he made the announcement, Mr Williamson said: ‘We’ve as yet not had any formal request from any Government department but what we are doing is putting contingency plans in place, and what we will do is have 3,500 service personnel held at readiness – including regulars and reserves – in order to support any Government department on any contingencies they may need.’
Up to 10,000 lorries could be parked in Kent if no deal causes delays at the ports
Dover has room for 1,720, Manston Airport near Margate, which has been purchased by the Department for Transport, could fit 4,000 and 4,500 could be parked on the M20 – as happened when ‘Operation Stack’ was triggered in 2015
More than 10,000 lorries could be parked in Kent to cater for queues of trucks heading for France in event of a no-deal Brexit.
First lorries would be parked at Dover, then on Manston Airport and finally the M20.
Dover has room for 1,720 while Manston Airport near Margate, could fit 6,500 following a series of tests. If they run out of room, more lorries could be parked on the M20 – as happened when ‘Operation Stack’ was triggered in 2015.
Further contingency plans that emerged in November suggested the 10-mile long M26 could also be pressed into service for overflowing lorries.
Specialist drugs first in line for emergency ferry space
Transport Secretary Chris Grayling had mooted the Government leasing entire roll-on, roll-off lorry ferries
Reserving space on ferries for critical supplies is among the contingency plans triggered by the Cabinet today.
Specialist drugs used by the NHS are first in line for space on the No Deal ferries, which were mired in controversy when Transport Secretary Chris Grayling handed one of the contracts to an untested firm with no ships. The deal was later cancelled.
The Department of Health is understood to have contacted pharmaceutical companies urging them to route their supplies using the new ferry services.
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