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weekendwarriorblog · 4 years ago

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ED’s 2020 Oscar Nomination Predictions – The Actors

Listen, I’ve been analyzing and making Oscar predictions for almost 20 years now, and just because I’m no longer considered worthy of being a Gold Derby expert, that’s really just their loss, because I still plan on covering the Oscars whenever and however I can.

I don’t have to go further down into the well of this expanded season and how we’re still nearly three months away from knowing the Oscar winners. I’ll just start with the actors, as the title might suggest, since I feel it might be easier to cover those four categories then getting into all the nitty gritty that goes into some of the other above the line categories. (And you just know I’ll cover any of the artisan and technical categories over at Below the Line.)

What’s always interesting about the performances that get attention is that they often follow very similar routes, and sometimes, a good actor gains momentum from having a great script or even a good make-up and hair team.

LEAD ACTOR

I feel that every year, this tends to be a crowded field, and maybe more this year than ever, but it tells you how many movies are still being led by men, and that’s not just in front of the camera but also behind it.

Kingsley Ben-Adir - One Night in Miami There’s a little confusion about which category this talented and still relatively unknown British actor playing Malcolm X in Regina King’s historical drama should be placed, which is only going to be compounded by the Golden Globes and SAG nominations. Ben-Adir is indeed great in the role, giving us a very different take on the black activist then Denzel Washington’s performance in Spike Lee’s movie, but by being put in lead means he’s facing much tougher competition, including…

Chadwick Boseman - Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

The late Black Panther actor tragically died last year leaving us with two final performances in Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloodsand George C. Wolfe’s adaptation of August Wilson’s Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. The latter is where he’s likely to get the nomination (and many think the win) because his role as the brash trumpet-player Levee who butts heads with the title character, played by Viola Davis, makes the movie so unforgettable. It seems likely that the Academy might want to honor Boseman with a posthumous Oscar, and his performance here is good enough that it won’t seem like a token if they award the Oscar to Boseman.

Riz Ahmed - Sound of Metal

Ahmed is an actor who has been getting more attention with every role from starring opposite Jake Gyllenhaal in Nightcrawler to his starring role in the HBO limited series The Night Of, for which he won an Emmy and was nominated for a Golden Globe. His role as a metal drummer losing his hearing in Darius Marder’s drama shows another side to the actor who really goes to some extremes in terms of emotions. It’s a fantastic performance that almost guarantees him a nomination, and we’ll have to see if Amazon Studios has the clout to move him into the frontrunner’s field.

Anthony Hopkins - The Father

Based on his own stage play, Florian Zeller’s drama about a man suffering from dementia, played by Hopkins, has all the elements and backing that could get Hopkin his second Oscar nomination in a row after last year’s The Two Popes. Personally, I wasn’t too big a fan of the movie, and though Julianne Moore finally won her Oscar by playing a woman with dementia, I’m not sure this is that great a role for Hopkins, so best he might do is get another nomination.

Delroy Lindo - Da 5 Bloods

That brings us to another actor who has been gaining much respect from his peers over the past few decades and whose starring role in Spike Lee’s latest movie has been gaining him new respect among the critics. One of the top critics group, the New York Film Critics Circle gave Lindon their top award, as did the National Society of Film Critics, as did Boston and Philly. That’s a lot of clout right there, which will help the Netflix film get a lot more traction.

Gary Oldman - Mank

One of the performances expected to be front and center during Oscar season is the Oscar-winner’s latest real-life portrayal, having won that Oscar for playing Winston Churchill in Darkest Hour a few years back. This time, he plays classic Hollywood screenwriter Herman J. Mankiewicz who fights alcoholism and Hollywood critics as he co-writes Orson Welles’ 1941 film, Citizen Kane. Besides being about old-time Hollywood and a classic film – which plays well to the ego of Oscar voter -- Mank also teams Oldman with director David Fincher, who has directed probably half a dozen or more actors to an Oscar nomination. Unfortunately, it doesn’t seem like Mank is getting as much love from the critics some expected and that could ultimately hurt the movie if it doesn’t connect with the industry people it portrays, although Oldman has a good chance at sneaking into nominations.

Stanley Tucci and Colin Firth – Supernova

Two brilliant performances come from the previous winner Firth and the one-time nominee Tucci, who play long-time lovers dealing with the latter’s terminal cancer in Harry Macqueen’s well-reviewed drama. The movie missed out on getting any critical love, so it’s really up to SAG to give either actor a push. Unfortunately, they’re both so good in the movie they might cancel each other out.

Steven Yeun – Minari

One of the most beloved audience-pleasisng movies going all the way back to last year’s Sundance Film Festival is Lee Isaac Chung’s semi-autobiographical family drama, and Yeun’s performance has gotten quite a bit of attention as it follows his rise to serious actor legitimacy that began with the Korean drama Burning a few years back.

A few others in the mix include Sacha Baron Cohen in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (a Golden Globe nominee for sure), Tom Hanks for News of the World (ditto?), Lakeith Stansfield for Judas and the Black Messiah, John David Washington for Malcolm and Marie, and Tahar Rahim for The Mauritanian, but they all need to up their game, especially the latter two which are opening later in the season.

My nomination predictions: Ahmed, Boseman, Hopkins, Lindo, Oldman (The last three seem to be the most vulnerable to be replaced by Ben-Adir or even Yeun, who have roles in far more popular movies.)

LEAD ACTRESS

By comparison, there aren’t nearly as many actresses up for this category, and that’s somewhat telling that this seems to be the case every year. In fact, there’s only five or six actresses that I can see being nominated, and then it’s gonna be a bloodbath for the win.

Andra Day – United States vs. Billie Holiday

One of a couple amazing musical biopics about great women from music history, this Lee Daniels drama based on a tough period in the acclaimed singer’s later life reminds me a bit of last year’s Judy and others. Early critical takes on the movie were pretty negative, but there’s no denying that the singer, making her feature film lead debut no less, really embodies the title character and shows so many different sides as Daniels directs another Oscar-caliber performance. The question is whether Oscar voters can get past the tougher aspects of the film and Holiday’s life to fully appreciate Day’s work. Being on Hulu in late February will make sure that Academy members are seeing it while filling out their ballots.

Viola Davis - Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Davis won her first Oscar for supporting Denzel Washington in his adaptation of an August Wilson play, and she’s back in another Wilson adaptation. For this one, she’s in a far less recognizable role with elaborate costumes and an actual horsehair wig and dental prosthetics that give even more weight to her performance of the “Queen of the Blues” recording in Chicago in the late 1920s and not putting up with guff from anyone, whether it’s her manager or her brash trumpet player, played by Chadwick Boseman.

Vanessa Kirby - Pieces of a Woman

Giving a head-turning performance that includes an unforgettable (but hard to watch) 20-minute labor sequence, Kirby has already impressed her peers with her work on Netflix’s The Crown, as well as her scene-stealing in the 2018 action movie Mission: Impossible – Fallout. This drama by Hungarian filmmaker Kornél Mundruczó’s gives us another look at the actress, but the biggest hurdle Kirby is facing is that her co-star Shia Labeouf (who is also quite good in the movie) has been accused of horrible behavior and essentially cancelled, even by Netflix from its awards and marketing campaign for the movie. Will that hurt Kirby chances or will Oscar voters be able to focus on her craft?

Carey Mulligan - Promising Young Woman

That brings us to a thriller that normally might not be considered Oscar-worthy except that mostly everyone who sees this movie loves it and is blown away by the performance Mulligan gives, which shows so many sides of the actress previously nominated for one of her early roles in An Education (which also premiered at Sundance!). Few people aren’t impressed by Emerald Fennell’s directorial debut, and people will continue to talk about the movie and its shocking climax in the months leading up to Oscar nominations. Expect SAG and Golden Globe nominations leading up to her inevitable second Oscar nomination.

Frances McDormand – Nomadland

Although the two-time Oscar-winning McDormand stars in Chloe Zhao’s drama, which many people are already considering the frontrunner for Best Picture, some might even feel that McDormand’s performance is better than the two for which she won Oscars, it feels like this nomination is a given and many Oscar voters might prefer to draw attention to the newer talent in this category. But no one should be surprised if McDormand pulls out another surprise win on Oscar night without doing any of the campaigning others always do.

Zendaya - Malcolm and Marie

Another late arrival in this extended Oscar season is this movie from Sam Levinson, the writer/director whose HBO series Euphoria made the singer/actor best known for playing Mary Jane in the recent Spider-Man movies the youngest Emmy winner. Her role in the tough drama about a couple either will connect with Oscar voters or will hit way too close to home, so this might put her right up against Andra Day for that fifth slot.

Oddly, there aren’t nearly as many possible contenders in this category except for the other veteran, Sophia Loren, starring in her son’s Italian film, The Life Ahead; Amy Adams in Hillbilly Elegy, which suffers from horrible reviews; Kate Winslet in the mostly forgotten Ammonite or Meryl Streep in The Prom, although the latter of those is likely to be a Golden Globe Musical nominee and go no further.

My nomination predictions: Day, Davis, Kirby, McDormand, Mulligan (Zendaya seems like the spoiler but it seems unlikely she can win a nomination over five five flashier roles.)

SUPPORTING ACTOR

This is going to be a really interesting category this year, since there are three or four movie that have three to five (or more!) great male roles that have brought so much to those movies we’re likely to see them making waves in the SAG Ensemble category even if not all of them can get individual attention via supporting nominations.

Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods While Boseman is likely to get more attention for his performance in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, some critics groups have also been giving the late actor attention for this relatively small flashback role in Spike Lee’s movie, although it’s not nearly as showy or memorable a performance compared to Delroy Lindo.

Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

Speaking of what could be a SAG Ensemble frontrunner, Aaron Sorkin’s recreation of the famed government case against a number of 60s activists accused of inciting a riot (sound familiar?) features a number of strong performances, but the actor getting the biggest push (and doing the rounds, as they say) is the star of Borat who plays Abbie Hoffman in the movie and seems to really be flexing his dramatic muscles. The only thing that might hold Cohen back are his co-stars and voters who might not be sure who to push for the film.

Daniel Kaluuya - Judas and the Black Messiah Some might feel that Kaluuya’s performance as Black Panther Fred Hampton – a far more minor role played by Kelvin Harrison Jr. in Trial of the Chicago 7 – should have been deemed the lead, since it is a movie about how Hampton was set up by an undercover FBI agent, played by Lakeith Stansfield. Kaluuya already was nominated for an Oscar for his role in Jordan Peele’s Get Out (in which Stansfield had a minor role), but the performance he gives in this could certainly put him over the top with Oscar voters.

Leslie Odom, Jr. – One Night in Miami

One of the most memorable performances in Regina King’s narrative feature debut is this Tony-winning Hamilton star in his performance as legendarly soul singer Sam Cooke, as he butts heads with Kingsley Ben-Adir’s Malcolm X (see above), but with him being put into lead, it seems like Odom is likely to get the most love from SAG as well as Oscar voters, which puts him into direct competition with Kaluuya.

Paul Raci - Sound of Metal A name that isn’t very well known but is sure to be an actor we’ll see more of is this actor who has been mainly taking small roles on various TV shows for many years but as Riz Ahmed’s mentor in coping with his loss of hearing, Raci is likely to get some love as well, although he would really have to step up his game and get out there more.

David Strathairn – Nomadland

Chloé Zhao populated her acclaimed movie with many non-actors that come from the nomad community depicted in the film, and while much of the attention is rightfully put on Frances McDormand’s lead role, Strathairn’s supporting performance gives the film true heart. If nominated, this would be Strathairn’s first Oscar attention since starring as Edward Morrow in George Clooney’s Good Night and Good Luck.

Mark Rylance, Yahya Abdul-Mateen, Frank Langella - Trial of the Chicago 7 The big problem with the large ensemble cast of Sorkin’s movie is that there are so many great performances all working from his sure-to-be nominated screenplay, and no one can seem to decide which of the great actors is the best. Rylance already on an Oscar in this category, Abdul-Mateen is a hot upcoming star, and Langella is a veteran who has only been nominated once 11 years ago for Frost/Nixon. It feels Langella’s performance as the judge in the case is the most memorable, but these three might cancel themselves out especially with Cohen in the running.

Then we get to a lot of decent performances that might be hard to make a mark with so much competition in this category including Trevante Rhodes in United States vs. Billie Holiday, Charles Dance in Mank, Glynn Turman and Colman Domingo for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (with the same issue as Trial of the Chicago 7 acting against flashier performances), and the problematic candiates: Jared Leto in The Little Things, Shia Labeouf in Pieces of a Woman, and James Corden in The Prom.

My nomination predictions: Cohen, Kaluuya, Odom Jr, Raci, Strathairn (One of the last two seems the most likely to be bumped by a second Trial actor.)

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Welcome to this year’s “problematic” category, not because there aren’t many great actresses giving supporting performances that any filmmaker or actor would kill for, but more because two of the movies have issues, either in term of bad reviews or a problematic co-star.

Maria Bakalova - Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Sacha Baron Cohen’s surprise sequel wasn’t just praised for his decision to tackle COVID and the current American government but also for the performance by Bulgarian newcomer Bakalova as Borat’s daughter who keeps on being put into awkward situations to get laughs. Bakalova performs supremely, holding her own against the veteran Cohen in many scenes with many people leaving the movie awed by Bakalova.

Ellen Burstyn - Pieces of a Woman

Another acting legend, Ellen Burstyn, returned for Kornel Munduczo’s drama, playing the meddlesome mother of Vanessa Kirby’s character, who tries to push for a lawsuit after the latter loses her child. Like many great supporting roles, this one is almost exclusively about one memorable scene and monologue by Burstyn that was partially improvised, but there’s still that Shia Labeouf in the room that might sour voters’ desire to give Burstyn her first acknowledgment since Requiem for a Dream twenty years ago.

Glenn Close - Hillbilly Elegy

A few years back, we nearly saw Glenn Close win her first Oscar for her performance in The Wife but she was snubbed in favor of Olivia Colman’s memorable role in The Favourite, which helped put the prolific British actress onto many radars even before she took over the lead in Netflix’s The Crown. Close is back with another memorable performance, this one playing the cranky Mawmaw in Netflix’s Hillbilly Elegy. The movie was obliterated by critics who refuse to give Close her due for what she brings to the movie. I don’t think that will be the case with the Golden Globes or SAG and not even the Oscars’ acting branch, all whom should nominate her again.

Olivia Colman - The Father Although much of the attention for Florian Zellers’ adaptation of his own play has been put on Anthony Hopkins’ performance in the title role, there’s still quite a lot of love for Colman, who looks to once again hijack Glenn Close’s Oscar chances, even if this role isn’t nearly as showy or memorable.

Amanda Seyfried – Mank

People seem to be all over the place in terms of their feelings about David Fincher’s Mank, his first movie since 2014’s Gone Girl, but there’s a general sense of love towards Amanda Seyfried’s portrayal of old Hollywood starlet Marion Davies who seems to be a bright and shiny counterpoint to Oldman’s title character. I’m not sure she can win but has enough support for her first nomination.

Yuh-jung Youn -- Minari

There’s a lot of great performances in Lee Isaac Chung’s family drama but the one that the critics seem to be drawn to the performance by this Korean acting vet who plays the eccentric grandma who mostly brings laughs to the film. I don’t think either SAG or Golden Globes will pick her and the absence of the Chinese grandmother from The Farewell being nominated last year makes me dubious Ms. Young will get nominated either.

As with supporting actor, there are quite a few outliers who could sneak in, and we’ll be looking towards the SAG and Golden Globe nominations to see if there’s any consensus for any of the following.

Without going into further details, others in the mix include Olivia Cooke in Sound of Metal, Saoirse Ronan in Ammonite, Helena Zengel in News of the World, Jodie Foster in The Mauritanian, and possibly Dominique Fishback in Judas and the Black Messiah. As with the lead actress vis-à-vis lead actor, there just aren’t as many

My nomination predictions: Bakalova, Burstyn, Close, Colman, Seyfried (This seems like a pretty strong roster that should be able to navigate through SAG and Golden Globes, with the two oldest actresses having to overcome the hurdles of co-stars and/or critics. Who knows? Maybe Bakalova will win it.)

Hopefully soon (but probably after Sundance) I’ll offer my predictions for the screenplay categories, director and Best Picture, but look for the Golden Globe nominations to be announced on February 3, launching this year’s Oscar race in earnest.

#Oscars #AcademyAwards #LeadActor #LeadActress

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