#Jaime Herrera Beutler

[calicojack1718]

Call Your Representative: Urge Them to go to the Battered Moderate Representative Shelter Before it is Too Late

The relationship between House MAGA and moderate Republicans is like watching your neighbor descend into madness because of their toxic abusive relationship with each other. The next Speaker can't have voted against certification or impeachment.

SUMMARY: The relationship between moderate and MAGA House Republicans resembles nothing so much as the toxic relationship between an abuser and their victim. The parallels to an abusive partnership are clear: MAGA Republicans are gaslighting moderates and subjecting them to emotional and physical abuse while blaming them for their own aggressive behavior. Moderate House Republicans are…

[annislittleshopofhorrors]

Washington Wednesday 🏛️

PCI - Jaime Herrera Beutler

[takeonmetakemeon]

The close margins in the US House have finally brought national attention to Vancouver, Washington and the areas surrounding it. Though much of that attention is poorly informed.

The rematch between moderate Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez and far right Republican Joe Kent is expected to help determine which party controls the House next year. It is on everyone's top 5 list.

The race that was largely ignored by outsiders and seen as an easy Republican win in 2022 has attracted millions of campaign dollars from the parties this year.

The incorrect assumptions of faraway political analysts transformed Rep. Gluesenkamp Perez's almost predictable victory into the largest upset of the 2022 election.

There are a few things political analysts get wrong about the region. First, it is not Democrat but it is also not Republican. Second, the vote is a little more elastic than it is in areas with similar demographics. Third, the region rewards pragmatism and moderation. And most importantly, the population has been represented by women more often than men in the past 70 years. Yes, *70* years.

Pundits could not imagine that Jaime Herrera Beutler, a Hispanic woman, could have outperformed a typical Republican in the district. It was difficult to compare her to other Republicans since she was the only person who had represented it since it was reduced in size and lost liberal-leaning Olympia in 2012. So, unable to imagine that she could be individually popular, they took her numbers as the district baseline.

Jaime Herrera Beutler was moderate and pragmatic. That sells in the district. She was also originally from Clark County. That matters to long-term residents of the area who aren't necessarily thrilled with the flood of Portland and California housing refugees that has transformed the entire region.

She graduated from what was one of the largest high schools in the county at the time, one that straddled the rapidly urbanizing unincorporated areas outside Vancouver and more traditionally-minded, still-rural areas of Clark County. Middle-aged voters (or nearly middle-aged) could and did say online "I went to high school with her" or "I went to school with her brother." As a politician she lived in Camas, a formerly rural mill town that now encompasses firmly middle class neighborhoods filled with Portland's population overflow, a white working class central core and a rural fringe. Its most famous resident for something like 30 years now is Tonya Harding.

In 2020, WSU-Vancouver political science professor Carolyn Long, moved to the district from Oregon specifically to run in the race. As did Joe Kent before he ran in 2022.

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez *also* moved to the district from Oregon a few years before running for the seat, though she plays up her mother's roots in the state. She's what J.D. Vance would be if he had moved to eastern Kentucky and shared the economic struggles and cultural outlook of the people he claims to represent and defended them instead of lecturing them.

Jaime Herrera Beutler was a talented politician who understood her district instinctively by way of living her entire life in its cultural midpoint. Her only mistake, politically speaking, was misjudging how primary voters would react to the attack on the Capitol on Jan. 6 and her subsequent vote to impeach Donald Trump. It could be decades before any politician matches her results. They were not the baseline.

So pundits universally overestimated the partisan makeup of the district. Then they could not imagine that a different but unknown Hispanic woman could compete against an inexperienced white man with a mystery income source who looked good on TV and sounds like he spends all his time on the internet.

She could and she did. A far right Republican (a label Joe Kent did not dispute in 2022 even as he claimed his repeated interactions with the Nick Fuentes crowd were coincidental and wholly unintentional) does not have a natural advantage against a moderate Democrat.

In this district a man also does not have an advantage against a woman. That was becoming true when my mother voted for the first time, though it took a highly qualified, unusually thick-skinned woman to win then. Repeatedly. But it is definitely true in an era when all her grandchildren can vote. What kind of expectations do you imagine her granddaughters have? In a one-time ship-building district that includes the great-granddaughters of a multitude of Rosie the Riveters?

It is not surprising that a centrist small business owner living in rural, heavily-forested Skamania County could perform better than a political science professor who moved to the district *after* declaring interest in the office, as center-left Democrat Carolyn Long did in 2020.

Nor is it surprising that this district would replace a popular moderate Republican who belonged to the Problem Solvers Caucus with a moderate Blue Dog Democrat whose policy positions are barely distinguishable from hers. General election voters liked Jaime Herrera Beutler so much they almost cloned her.

I wouldn't make any predictions about the outcome of the race, though. The great majority of voters are voting to decide which party will control the House, making individual candidates irrelevant to them. I considered it a toss-up in 2022 and consider it one again, though I think Gluesenkamp Perez has slightly higher chances this time around.

If Joe Kent can add all of the votes for the other Republican in the primary to his 39.3% share, he would win the general election with 51.5% of the vote. But he is not the automatic heir of every vote that went to the more reasonable Republican, Camas City Council member and retired attorney Leslie Lewallen (i.e. a reasonable person with actual qualifications).

That's not how the district works. It's probably not how any district works.

Note that despite Gluesenkamp Perez's decidedly un-liberal voting record, not a single Democrat ran against her in the primary. Her only non-Republican opponent was an independent who ran against the genocide in Gaza and received 2.55% of the vote. All but the most die-hard liberals voted for a Democrat who is currently conspicuously absent at the national convention.

Local Democrats rallied around her in 2022 (her liberal Democratic opponent withdrew from the primary and supported her campaign instead) and they did it again in 2024, just as they and Democrats across the nation have rallied around Vice President Harris.

In today's partisan times, Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is not guaranteed victory, but she has the advantage. Washington's top-two primary system means there will be no third candidate on the general election ballot. There will be no one for liberals to vote for in protest. All they can do is decline to vote at all in a race where the only other candidate is a far right conservative. Some may do that, which is one reason the race is unpredictable.

At the same time, moderate Republicans can see her as someone who will represent them on multiple issues but won't join with the establishment-hating, democracy-undermining, party-destroying Republican fringe. As some did in 2022.

Given the candidates in the race, House Speaker Mike Johnson's recent embrace of Joe Kent is embarrassing. Not only is he unqualified, he's an extremist who would get along well with Reps. Matt Gaetz and Lorena Boebert. Rep. Gluesenkamp Perez was certainly more supportive of him than Kent would have been had he represented the district during Republicans' internecine political wars.

He is, it seems, more concerned with reaching out to the Republicans who fought him than the Democrats who supported him. In the process, he may have stabbed himself in the back.

And oh yeah, I also wouldn't bet on Trump winning in the district a third time. Not that anyone really cares.

[conniejoworld]

This is the full list of all Republican House representatives who voted against the sick leave measure:

Robert Aderholt, Alabama 4th district

Rick Allen, Georgia 12th district

Mark Amodei, Nevada 2nd district

Kelly Armstrong, North Dakota

Jodey Arrington, Texas 19th district

Brian Babin, Texas 36th district

Jim Baird, Indiana 4th district

Troy Balderson, Ohio 12th district

Jim Banks, Indiana 3rd district

Andy Barr, Kentucky 6th district

Cliff Bentz, Oregon 2nd district

Jack Bergman, Michigan 1st district

Stephanie Bice (OK), Oklahoma 5th district

Andy Biggs, Arizona 5th district

Gus Bilirakis, Florida 12th district

Dan Bishop, North Carolina 9th district

Mike Bost, Illinois 12th district

Kevin Brady, Texas 8th district

Mo Brooks, Alabama 5th district

Vern Buchanan, Florida 16th district

Ken Buck, Colorado 4th district

Larry Bucshon, Indiana 8th district

Ted Budd, North Carolina 13th district

Tim Burchett, Tennessee 2nd district

Michael Burgess, Texas 26th district

Ken Calvert, California 42nd district

Kat Cammack, Florida 3rd district

Mike Carey, Ohio 15th district

Jerry Carl, Alabama 1st district

John Carter, Texas 31st district

Buddy Carter, Georgia 1st district

Madison Cawthorn, North Carolina 11th district

Steve Chabot, Ohio 1st district

Liz Cheney, Wyoming

Ben Cline, Virginia 6th district

Michael Cloud, Texas 27th district

Andrew Clyde, Georgia 9th district

Tom Cole, Oklahoma 4th district

James Comer, Kentucky 1st district

Connie Conway, California 22nd district

Rick Crawford, Arkansas 1st district

Dan Crenshaw, Texas 2nd district

John Curtis, Utah 3rd district

Warren Davidson, Ohio 8th district

Rodney Davis, Illinois 13th district

Scott DesJarlais, Tennessee 4th district

Mario Diaz-Balart, Florida 25th district

Byron Donalds, Florida 19th district

Jeff Duncan, South Carolina 3rd district

Neal Dunn, Florida 2nd district

Jake Ellzey, Texas 6th district

Tom Emmer, Minnesota 6th district

Ron Estes, Kansas 4th district

Pat Fallon, Texas 4th district

Randy Feenstra, Iowa 4th district

Drew Ferguson, Georgia 3rd district

Brad Finstad, Minnesota 1st district

Michelle Fischbach, Minnesota 7th district

Scott Fitzgerald, Wisconsin 5th district

Chuck Fleischmann, Tennessee 3rd district

Mike Flood, Nebraska 1st district

Mayra Flores, Texas 34th district

Virginia Foxx, North Carolina 5th district

Scott Franklin, Florida 15th district

Russ Fulcher, Idaho 1st district

Matt Gaetz, Florida 1st district

Mike Gallagher, Wisconsin 8th district

Andrew Garbarino, New York 2nd district

Mike Garcia, California 25th district

Bob Gibbs, Ohio 7th district

Carlos Gimenez, Florida 26th district

Louie Gohmert, Texas 1st district

Tony Gonzales, Texas 23rd district

Anthony Gonzalez, Ohio 16th district

Bob Good, Virginia 5th district

Lance Gooden, Texas 5th district

Paul Gosar, Arizona 4th district

Kay Granger, Texas 12th district

Garret Graves, Louisiana 6th district

Sam Graves, Missouri 6th district

Mark Green, Tennessee 7th district

Marjorie Taylor Greene, Georgia 14th district

Morgan Griffith, Virginia 9th district

Glenn Grothman, Wisconsin 6th district

Michael Guest, Mississippi 3rd district

Brett Guthrie, Kentucky 2nd district

Andy Harris, Maryland 1st district

Diana Harshbarger, Tennessee 1st district

Vicky Hartzler, Missouri 4th district

Kevin Hern, Oklahoma 1st district

Yvette Herrell, New Mexico 2nd district

Jaime Herrera Beutler, Washington 3rd district

Jody Hice, Georgia 10th district

Clay Higgins, Louisiana 3rd district

French Hill, Arkansas 2nd district

Ashley Hinson, Iowa 1st district

Trey Hollingsworth, Indiana 9th district

Richard Hudson, North Carolina 8th district

Bill Huizenga, Michigan 2nd district

Darrell Issa, California 50th district

Ronny Jackson, Texas 13th district

Chris Jacobs, New York 27th district

Mike Johnson, Louisiana 4th district

Bill Johnson, Ohio 6th district

Dusty Johnson, South Dakota

Jim Jordan, Ohio 4th district

David Joyce, Ohio 14th district

John Joyce, Pennsylvania 13th district

Fred Keller, Pennsylvania 12th district

Trent Kelly, Mississippi 1st district

Mike Kelly, Pennsylvania 16th district

Young Kim, California 39th district

David Kustoff, Tennessee 8th district

Darin LaHood, Illinois 18th district

Doug LaMalfa, California 1st district

Doug Lamborn, Colorado 5th district

Bob Latta, Ohio 5th district

Jake LaTurner, Kansas 2nd district

Debbie Lesko, Arizona 8th district

Julia Letlow, Louisiana 5th district

Billy Long, Missouri 7th district

Barry Loudermilk, Georgia 11th district

Frank Lucas, Oklahoma 3rd district

Blaine Luetkemeyer, Missouri 3rd district

Nancy Mace, South Carolina 1st district

Nicole Malliotakis, New York 11th district

Tracey Mann, Kansas 1st district

Thomas Massie, Kentucky 4th district

Brian Mast, Florida 18th district

Kevin McCarthy, California 23rd district

Michael McCaul, Texas 10th district

Lisa McClain, Michigan 10th district

Tom McClintock, California 4th district

Patrick McHenry, North Carolina 10th district

Peter Meijer, Michigan 3rd district

Dan Meuser, Pennsylvania 9th district

Mary Miller, Illinois 15th district

Carol Miller, West Virginia 3rd district

Mariannette Miller-Meeks, Iowa 2nd district

John Moolenaar, Michigan 4th district

Alex Mooney, West Virginia 2nd district

Barry Moore, Alabama 2nd district

Blake Moore, Utah 1st district

Markwayne Mullin, Oklahoma 2nd district

Greg Murphy, North Carolina 3rd district

Troy Nehls, Texas 22nd district

Dan Newhouse, Washington 4th district

Ralph Norman, South Carolina 5th district

Jay Obernolte, California 8th district

Burgess Owens, Utah 4th district

Steven Palazzo, Mississippi 4th district

Gary Palmer, Alabama 6th district

Greg Pence, Indiana 6th district

Scott Perry, Pennsylvania 10th district

August Pfluger, Texas 11th district

Bill Posey, Florida 8th district

Guy Reschenthaler, Pennsylvania 14th district

Tom Rice, South Carolina 7th district

Cathy McMorris Rodgers, Washington 5th district

Mike Rogers, Alabama 3rd district

Hal Rogers, Kentucky 5th district

John Rose, Tennessee 6th district

Matt Rosendale, Montana

David Rouzer, North Carolina 7th district

Chip Roy, Texas 21st district

John Rutherford, Florida 4th district

Maria Elvira Salazar, Florida 27th district

Steve Scalise, Louisiana 1st district

David Schweikert, Arizona 6th district

Austin Scott, Georgia 8th district

Joe Sempolinski, New York 23rd district

[foreverlogical]

The former president faces the prospect of political irrelevance. But the lasting damage he has done is evident in the chaotic scenes in Congress

“It’s just drama,” sighed Jaime Herrera Beutler last Wednesday as the new Republican majority in Congress repeatedly fumbled its first automatic obligation, taking 15 votes to elect a speaker. Beutler herself took no part in the posturing and play-acting. Having voted in favour of impeaching Donald Trump after the riot at the Capitol on 6 January 2021, she missed her chance for re-election when Trump pushed one of his loyalists to challenge her.

The Trumpist ousted Beutler in a run-off, then lost to a Democrat in the general election: Trump had his petty revenge, for which the Republicans paid. Though he continues to whip up drama, he has lost his capacity to direct it, and so the unscripted, absurdly improvised drama reels on – in the short term comic but, as it confounds the country’s government, in the long run probably tragic.

Continue reading...

[mariacallous]

It’s easy to imagine a scenario in which Kevin McCarthy was the Republican hero of 2022. Had the Party won more seats in the House, he could have claimed that he built a decisive majority by controlling the middle and the extreme right, defying the laws of political gravity. Last winter, he confronted an old friend, Jaime Herrera Beutler, of Washington, who voted to impeach Trump and eventually lost to an election denier in the primary. McCarthy had told her about the call he’d had with the President on January 6th, which she later shared with the press. “I alone am taking all the heat to protect people from Trump!” McCarthy told her. “I alone am holding the Party together!” (Herrera Beutler and McCarthy disputed this account when it was first reported, by Bade and Demirjian.)

Just as he had in 2010, McCarthy recruited a diverse and promising class of candidates in 2022, uniting them under a broad and usefully nondescript platform called Commitment to America. He also helped raise five hundred million dollars, including two hundred and sixty million dollars for the Congressional Leadership Fund, the Party’s largest House super PAC. It spent heavily to support moderate candidates against far-right challengers. Herrera Beutler received money, as did David Valadao, a McCarthy ally, who represents a largely Hispanic district next to his that went for Biden in 2020. The bet made by the Republican establishment, Peter Meijer told me, “was that you can split the difference between traditional Republicans and pathways to the majority while also humoring Trump. I don’t think that’s a bet that paid off.” Although Valadao became one of only two of the ten Republican impeachers to win reëlection, after McCarthy persuaded Trump not to attack him, Herrera Beutler’s seat went to a Democrat for the first time in eleven years.

McCarthy has spent the past seven years, since he last ran for Speaker, working to shore up his support on the right. Previously, Freedom Caucus members were not given the top jobs on committees, because Party leadership considered them too extreme. McCarthy has brought figures such as Jim Jordan into the establishment—Jordan will soon have one of the most prestigious jobs in the conference, the chairmanship of the Judiciary Committee, where he’ll have the power to harass the Administration.

“The way he maneuvers is he gives everyone what they want,” the senior Hill staffer said, of McCarthy. “It’s all about member management. His constituents are the members of the Republican conference.”

Yet now McCarthy is going to the January 3rd floor vote on a knife’s edge.

What Kevin McCarthy Will Do to Gain Power

[npi]

Two Republicans ahead for Commissioner of Public Lands; Dave Upthegrove in third place but could rise to second in late ballots

Unless Democratic King County Council Chair Dave Upthegrove can mount a comeback in the late ballots, the contest for Commissioner of Public Lands will be a runoff between two Republicans this fall, as NPI has repeatedly warned that it could be. Upthegrove and four other Democratic contenders for the post are splitting the vote so effectively that Republicans Jaime Herrera Beutler and Sue Kuehl…

[chubbycaucasianchristiancloseted]

Can you follow the hearsay?

Can you follow the hearsay? So this NY Times article is stating a fact based off of what a house member said, she overheard McCarthy talking about a phone call he had with Donald Trump. Do you see how crazy that is? Would that hold up in court? Then everyone else said that it didn’t happen?

The NY Times did not use this colorful language with the mob, besiegement during the summer of 2020.

Remember when reading this article everything in quotes that Beutler said, is what she supposedly heard from McCarthy.

Direct Quotes:

In a statement on Friday night, Representative Jaime Herrera Beutler, Republican of Washington, recounted a phone call relayed to her by Mr. McCarthy of California, the minority leader, in which Mr. Trump was said to have sided with the rioters, telling the top House Republican that members of the mob who had stormed the Capitol were “more upset about the election than you are.”

 Her account of the call between Mr. McCarthy and Mr. Trump, first reported by CNN, addressed a crucial question in the impeachment trial: what Mr. Trump was doing and saying privately while the Capitol was being overrun.

Hours after the assault began, Mr. Trump tweeted a video in which he asked those ransacking the Capitol to leave. “Go home. We love you. You’re very special,” he said.

[truck-fump]

Pro-<b>Trump</b> Republican who lost Wash. House seat will run again - NBC News

New Post has been published on https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/meetthepressblog/-trump-republican-lost-wash-house-seat-will-run-rcna65361&ct=ga&cd=CAIyGjUzM2UwMTY5ZmFhZTIwMGQ6Y29tOmVuOlVT&usg=AOvVaw3KycZw7HN7ZkAWbPDTPeMJ

Pro-Trump Republican who lost Wash. House seat will run again - NBC News

Kent edged out then-GOP Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler in the state’s top-two primary, making her vote to impeach former President Donald Trump after the …

[cleopuppy]

The nine Republicans broke from the GOP and voted for the bill were Reps. John Katko (N.Y.), Chris Jacobs (N.Y.), Brian Fitzpatrick (Pa.), Liz Cheney (Wyo.), Fred Upton (Mich.), Rodney Davis (Ill.), Jaime Herrera Beutler (Wash.), Adam Kinzinger (Ill.) and Steve Womack (Ark.).

The rest of the lemmings blithely followed onion-skinned, 🧠💀 Karen McCarthy right over the cliff.

[takeonmetakemeon]

It was considered to be a swing district before it lost Democratic-leaning Thurston County after 2010. After reapportionament the remaining voters chose Republican Jaime Herrera Beutler by large margins. Rep. Herrera Beutler lost in the 2022 primary after voting to impeach Donald Trump. Democrat and small business owner Marie Gluesenkamp Perez beat telegenic veteran and right-wing commentator Joe Kent by a hair in the general election later that year. She beat him by a slightly larger margin in a rematch this year, proving her surprise (to national observers) victory was not a fluke. Since electing trailblazer Julia Butler Hansen in 1960, the district has voted for five women and two men. It has not elected any Republican men in that 64-year period.

Pragmatist Wins In District That Favors Pragmatism

[npi]

Maria Cantwell retains fifteen point lead over hypothetical opponent Jaime Herrera Beutler

Senator Maria Cantwell remains well positioned for reelection to the U.S. Senate next year in the Evergreen State, the Northwest Progressive Institute’s June 2023 survey of likely 2024 Washington general election voters has confirmed. Cantwell continues to enjoy a fifteen point lead over hypothetical Republican opponent Jaime Herrera Beutler, a margin unchanged from our last survey back in March.…