#I was nice and put WV under likely R and not safe R lol

[dhaaruni]

Here are my extremely vibes-based 2024 Senate predictions:

Imo the most likely case is a 48D-52R Senate because I think Dems can win Arizona since Biden likely wins it, but lose Ohio/Montana/West Virginia. No matter what the denizens of Election Twitter wishcast, I'm skeptical that Sherrod Brown OR Jon Tester are favored even with flawed candidates!

Here's the reality:

There's MUCH less ticket-splitting since 2012 which was the presidential year when this Senate class was last up for re-election. 2018 was a blue-wave year without a presidential race!

Trump won Montana by twice as much as he won Ohio, and Tester is a good incumbent in a small state but that doesn't mean he can outrun Biden by 20