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whitehotharlots · 4 years

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Previewing the 2024 Democrat Primary

Within a couple weeks of his being sworn in, just about every person on earth will wish Joe Biden was no longer president. Sure, the few surviving John B. Anderson voters will be thrilled to see 4 years of crushing austerity and half-assed attempts at Keynesian stimulus. But most people will begin dreaming about a brighter future.

Good news! The 2024 Democratic primary field is going to contain dozens of options. Bad news! They are all going to be disgusting piles of shit.

The “top tier”

While it’s too early to do any handicapping, these are the candidates the media will treat as having the most realistic chances of securing the nomination.

Kamala Harris

Kamala did not win a single primary delegate in 2020. This is because she dropped out before the first primary, and that was because no one likes her. She has no base beyond a few thousand of twitter’s most violent psychos. Her disingenuousness approaches John Edwards levels: any halfway incredulous person can see immediately beyond her bullshit. She has no principles whatsoever, and while that may be par for the course for Democrats, she lacks even the basic politician’s ability to intuit anything that might, hypothetically, constitute a principle.

Even better: she is an awful public speaker. She sounds like how a talking dog would speak if he were just caught stealing people food off the kitchen table. She communicates in weird grunts and faux sassy squeaks, which is how she imagines real black women sound like, but something about her is unable to sell the bit. She begins her sentences in halfhearted AAVE, stops and panics halfway through as she realizes that maybe this sounds fake and offensive, and then reminds herself oh wait, no, this is okay since I’m black. This doesn’t happen once or twice per speech. This is how every single sentence sounds.

Kamala is like Nancy Pelosi in that no sketch show will ever impersonate her correctly, because anything that came close to authenticity would be considered far too cruel. This might benefit her in the primaries, as she exists in the minds of Democrats as someone and something she absolutely is not in reality. Nominating her would be like allowing your child’s imaginary friend to attempt to drive you to the store.

Andrew Cuomo

Easily one of the 50 worst people alive, Cuomo has a solid chance because Democrats, same as Republicans, are unable to differentiate between electability and self-serving ruthlessness. Cuomo used the deadliest public health crisis in American history as a pretext for cutting Medicaid and firing 5,000 MTA workers, and his approval rating increased. New York Dems are little piggies who love eating shit. If we assume that the political media will continue their habit of refusing to discuss the legislative history of right wing Democrats, Cuomo might well cruise to the nomination and then lose to literally any human being the GOP nominates by an historic margin.

Joe Biden

The party loves him because he is a right wing racist. “Progressives” tolerate him because black primary voters over 40 supported him, and their opinion is supposedly a magic window into god’s truth. Everyone else can tell he is manifestly senile. I don’t put it above the DNC to pick a candidate who is in horrible health, dying, or even dead--whatever the financial sector wants, they’ll get. But I would be shocked if his approval rating is above 39% by mid-2023, and by that point deep fake technology will be advanced enough they’ll put out a very lifelike video in which the Max Headroom version of Joe explains he’s proud of his accomplishments--that budget’s almost balanced already--but, man, I gotta abd--I gotta abdica--, uhh, I gotta, I, uhh, I gotta move down, man.

Wild Cards

These candidates would have all have a chance if they ran, but they could all much more easily retire to Little Saint James off of kickbacks they’ve gotten from Citibank and I.G. Farben.

Rahm Emanuel

Rahm is going to receive some hugely influential post in the Biden administration. Let’s say he becomes Secretary of Education. His signature achievement will be replacing all elementary school teachers with Amazon’s Alexa, which saved the taxpayers so much money we were able to quadruple the number of armed police officers we put into high schools. This will give him several thousand positive profiles on network news programs and the near-universal support of the Silicon Valley vampires who will own 99% of the country by the time Biden’s term ends. They will use their fancy mind control devices to convince geriatic primary voters that Rahm’s the one who will bring Decency back to the white house. His candidacy will be the paragon of wokeness, as expressing concern toward the fact that he covered up the police murder of a black guy will get you called a racist.

Rahm has a bonus in that Jewish men are now Schrodeniger’s PoC. When they are decent human beings, they are basic, cis white men who are stealing attention from disabled trans candidates of color. When they love austerity and apartheid, they become the most vulnerable people of color on earth and criticizing them in any way is genocide. No one will be able to mention a single thing Rahm has ever done or said without opening themselves to accusations of antisemitism, and that gives him a strong edge against the rest of the field. The good news is that an Emmanuel candidacy would result in over 50% of black voters choosing the GOP candidate--which, I guess that’s not really good but it would certainly be funny.

Gavin Newsom

Newsom is every bit as feckless as Cuomo, but he doesn’t put off the same “bad guy in an early Steven Segal movie” vibes. He will mention climate change 50 times per speech and no one will bother to mention how he keeps signing fracking contracts even though his state is now on fire 11 months of the year. If anything, this will be spun into an argument about how he’s actually the candidate best suited to handle all the water refugees gathering on the southern border. Look for his plan to curb emissions by 10% by the year 2150 to get high marks from Sierra Club nerds. He’s also a celebate librarian’s idea of what constitutes a handsome man, so he’ll have some support from the type of women who claim to hate all men.

Larry Summers

I mean, why not? Larry, like most members of the Obama administration, has politics that are eerily similar to those of Jordan Peterson. In normal circumstances, this makes a person a dangerous fascist who should not be platformed. But if that person has a D next to their name this makes them a realistic pragmatist who has what it takes to bring suburban bankers into our tent. If current trends in Woke Phrenology continue apace, Larry’s belief that women are inherently bad at STEM will be liberal orthodoxy by 2023, and his dedication to the Laffer Curve could see him rake in massive donations. Seriously, I’m not kidding: cultural liberalism is now fully dedicated to identity essentialism and balanced budgets. Larry is their ideal candidate. If he were black and/or a woman, I’d put him in the very top tier.

Jay Inslee

Unlike Newsom, Inslee’s attempt to crown himself the King of Global Warming won’t be immediately derailed, since his state is only on fire because of protestors. This, however, poses a different problem. He’s going to be a good test case for the Democrat’s uneasy peace with the ever increasing share of the electorate who become catatonic upon hearing a pronoun. On the one hand, you need to take their votes for granted. On the other hand, they’re not like black people or regular gays: most voters actively, consciously despise wokies, and associating yourself with them will ruin a campaign even in deep blue areas. There’s still gonna be riots in a year. Biden’s gonna announce the sale of all our nation’s potable water to the good folks at Nestle and some trans freak named Sasha-Malia DeBalzac is going to use that as an opportunity to sell their new pamphlet about how it’s fascist to not burn down small businesses. No matter what Inslee does in response, it’ll end his career.

AOC

I’m not one of those “AOC is a secret conservative” weirdos, but I am aware enough of basic reality to know she has zero chance of coming close to the nomination. The right and the center both regard her as a literal demon. The party is already blaming her for the fact that a handful of faceless Reagan acolytes failed to flip their suburban districts even though they ran on sensible pragmatic proposals like euthanizing the homeless. The recriminations will only get more unhinged when the Dems eat shit in the 2022 midterms. She will be a Russian, she will be white male, she will be a communist, she will be a homophobe: any insult or conspiracy theory you can name, MSNBC will spend hours discussing. Her house seat challenger will receive a record amount of support from the DNC in 2024 and it’ll be all she can do to remain in congress.

Larry Hogan

Don’t be dissuaded by the fact that he’s a Republican. Larry is the DNC’s ideal candidate: a physically repulsive conservative who owes his entire career to appealing to the most spiteful desires of suburban white people. He’s an open racist in a material sense--if you’re old-school enough to think racism is a matter of beliefs and actions, rather than the presence of cultural signifiers--but his is the beloved “never Trump” style of racism that Dems covet. He’s also a Proven Leader who thinks the role of government should be to finance the construction of investment property and give police the resources they need to run successful drug trafficking operations. Few people embody the Democrat worldview more than Larry.

The Losers Bracket

These people will have at least a small chance due solely to the fact that the Democrats love losing. They have lost in the past, and in the Democrat Mind that makes them especially qualified.

Joe Kennedy

The man looks like a mushroom-human hybrid from a JRPG. Trump proved that physical hideousness need not doom a presidential bid, but a candidate still needs some kind of charm or oratorical abilities or, god forbid, a decent platform. Joe aggressively lacks all of these things. A vanity campaign would be a good way to raise money and perhaps secure an MSNBC gig, so Joe might still run.

Mayor Pete

I am 100% convinced that Pete’s 2020 run was a CIA plot meant to prevent working class Americans from ever having a chance of living decent lives. I am also 100% aware that Democrats are dumb enough to enthusiastically support a CIA plot meant to prevent working class Americans from ever having a chance of living decent lives. If we have some sort of military or terror disaster between now and 2023 the Dems are sure to want a TROOP, and wait wait wait you’re telling me this one is a gay troop? Holy hell there’s no way that could lose!

Stacy Abrams

Never underestimate the power of white guilt. She lost the gubernatorial race to Gomer Pyle’s grandson, and her spiritual guidance of the Dems saw the party lose black voters in Georgia in 2020. Nonetheless, she is regarded as a magic font of fierceness within the DNC. She might stand a chance if she can establish herself as the most conservative non-white candidate in the field, but there’s going to be stiff competition for that honor.

Elizabeth Warren

Liz is probably angry that the party so shamelessly sold her out even after she was a good little girl and sabatoged Bernie’s campaign for them--yet another example of high ranking US government officials reneging on their promises to the Native American community. Smdh. The fact that this woman hasn’t been bankrupted a dozen times over by various Wallet Inspectors genuinely astounds me. So Liz is probably going to run again, and her campaign will be even sadder the second time around.

It might surprise you to hear this if you don’t work at a college or NGO, but Liz diehards actually do exist. She’ll get even less support this time because there will be no viable leftist in the field for her to spoil, but she’ll still hang in long enough to make sure the very worst possible candidate beats out the second worst possible candidate. Maybe she’ll fabricate a rape accusation against Sherrod Brown. Maybe she’ll spend her entire allotted debate time doing a land acknowledgment. With Liz, anything is possible--so long as it ends in failure.

Amy Klobuchar

Amy was the most bloodthirsty of the 2020 also rans. She will double down on the unpopular failures of the Biden administration, explaining that if you weren’t such a selfish idiot you’d love the higher social security retirement age and oh my god are so such a moron you think you shouldn’t go bankrupt to get a COVID vaccine? There’s a non-unsubstantial segment of the Democratic base that’s self-hating enough to find this appealing, but it won’t be enough to make her viable.

Martha Coakley

She lost Ted Kennedy’s senate seat to a retarded man who was pretending to be even more retarded than he actually was. Then she lost a gubernatorial race to a guy who openly promised Massachusetts voters that he would punish them for electing him. Her record of failure is unparalleled, making her perhaps the ideal Democrat standard bearer for the twenty twenties.

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theliberaltony · 4 years

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via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.

sarahf (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): Over the weekend, an ABC/Washington Post poll found that most Democrats now back former Vice President Joe Biden, but enthusiasm for his candidacy was, on the other hand, pretty lackluster.

Just 24 percent of his supporters said they were “very” enthusiastic about supporting him. This marked the lowest level of enthusiasm for a Democratic presidential candidate that ABC/Washington Post has found in the last 20 years. And perhaps even more troubling for Biden was that nearly twice as many of President Trump’s supporters (53 percent) said they were “very” enthusiastic about his candidacy.

This, of course, has sparked comparisons to 2016 when former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton found herself in a similar situation — running neck-and-neck with Trump and with only 32 percent saying they were “very” enthusiastic about supporting her in September 2016. Biden, of course, is already 8 points below that mark now.

So does Biden have an enthusiasm problem? What’s the case for why he might and the case for why we shouldn’t read too much into this now?

nrakich (Nathaniel Rakich, elections analyst): I don’t think this is something Biden should worry about, at least not right now. We’ve just come off a knock-down, drag-out, 15-month-long primary fight. And some would argue it’s still going on, with Sen. Bernie Sanders still contesting the nomination!

It’s a lot to ask for the party to be totally united at this early juncture. I’d guess that, by September, Biden will have as good or better enthusiasm numbers as Clinton did in September 2016.

natesilver (Nate Silver, editor in chief): It feels so quaint to be debating a horse-race question in the middle of a pandemic.

But basically: I don’t think enthusiasm is a terribly meaningful indicator above and beyond what is already reflected in polls.

Sanders’s voters were more enthusiastic than Biden’s in the primaries. But he’s actually tended to underperform his polls. Sometimes higher enthusiasm means you have a narrower base, and the other candidate has more room to turn out undecideds, etc.

An important qualification to all of this is that most of the polls so far are conducted among registered voters when really we want to see likely voter polls, which won’t really be reliable for another several months.

nrakich: Yeah, Biden leads in most general election national polls right now, but likely-voter polls tend to be a few points better for Republicans than registered-voter polls, and as Nate says, we don’t have a ton of these polls right now.

perry (Perry Bacon Jr., senior writer): It’s hard to say much about enthusiasm right now since we are still in the midst of the Demcoratic primary ending. For instance, I think enthusiasm around him could still grow, especially after Barack and Michelle Obama have enthusiastically endorsed him, Sanders is behind him, and he has picked a running mate who perhaps excites the party.

sarahf: That’s fair, but how do we reconcile that Trump’s very enthusiastic support is so much higher than Biden’s — 29 points?

perry: Trump is the Republican Party’s candidate, and he just won his primary with overwhelming support. The party is unified behind him. People have voted for him once. I’m not surprised his supporters are fairly enthusiastic about him.

natesilver: I don’t care how much higher a quality is that doesn’t matter.

But honestly, I think this discussion is premature in some ways. The general election campaign hasn’t begun. The primary campaign is in a zombie-like state between being sort of finished and sort of not.

We’re in the midst of a pandemic. And we don’t have very many likely-voter polls, and to the extent we do, they’re not liable to be very reliable anyway at this early stage.

Perhaps most importantly, Democrats can be very enthusiastic about beating Trump even if they’re not that enthusiastic about Biden.

perry: Right, that’s the most important thing.

nrakich: Yeah, I find it hard to get worked up by any general-election polling at this point. We’re still so early in this massive news story that could significantly help or hurt Trump.

sarahf: But is it a bad sign for Biden — and enthusiasm for his campaign — that 15 percent of Sanders supporters in the ABC poll say they’ll vote for Trump?

natesilver: Twelve percent of Sanders primary voters voted for Trump in 2016, and another 14 percent voted for a third-party candidate or didn’t vote. So those numbers are in line with four years ago. And there are fewer Sanders voters than there were four years ago, so if anything those numbers are better for Biden than they were for Clinton.

nrakich: Yeah, historically, that would be a totally normal number. In addition to the numbers Nate cites for 2016, another study found that 25 percent of Clinton voters voted for McCain over Obama in 2008.

So it’s not like this is something past presidential candidates haven’t had to overcome as well. It can make a difference in a close election, but bigger factors (e.g., the national environment, the economy) will probably determine the outcome in the end.

sarahf: OK. So what I’m hearing is that the idea that Biden has a real enthusiasm gap is — at least at this point — overrated! But isn’t it at least somewhat worrisome that there now appears to be an effort to draft New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo for president?

natesilver: Ohhhhh Sarah, this is such trollbait.

nrakich: Let’s be clear — that “ooh, Andrew Cuomo should run for president!” talk is utterly nonsensical, non-serious and half-baked.

sarahf: It is! I’m not defending it. But look at what happened when that talk took off last fall. Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg and former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick both entered the race as opposed to throwing their support behind someone else.

natesilver: People don’t understand the process. People think you can magically wave a magic wand and that Cuomo becomes the nominee.

Look, if Biden drops out for some reason (health, scandal, etc.), then, obviously, you’ll need a different nominee.

And I do think Cuomo might be the second-most likely nominee, after Biden.

If you need an emergency replacement nominee because Biden drops out, he’s fairly compatible with Biden ideologically.

And frankly, the “emergency replacement” scenario — while unlikely — is still probably more likely than “Bernie wins all remaining contests by 20 points and wins a pledged-delegate plurality” scenario.

nrakich: I do wonder to what extent people actually believe/want Cuomo to be the nominee, and how much is just a fun daydream.

perry: I live in Kentucky. People are suddenly talking very positively about our Gov. Andy Beshear, who is a Democrat. This is in part because Trump is doing press conferences in which he ignores the evidence and seems as interested in defending himself as he is in addressing the issues. So Cuomo comes off well in comparison, as do other governors, like Ohio’s Mike DeWine, a Republican.

It also helps that Cuomo is doing a lot of media and lives in the media capital of the United States. Plenty of governors would be getting buzz if they were doing a competent job and were based in NYC, for example, Gavin Newsom (California), Jay Inslee (Washington), Beshear, DeWine.

nrakich: I think the Cuomo thing — both talk of him becoming the nominee and his role as a leader on the coronavirus in general — has been overinflated by the New York-centric media.

perry: Also, Biden has not been super-impressive in his media appearances, so there is that.

Cuomo has been better on that front, as have other governors.

sarahf: But Biden has been kind of missing from the coronavirus response, right? Part of that is because, as you all point out, he’s not a current governor tasked with spearheading preventive measures in his state, but it does seem as if it’s harder for him to have a natural place in the conversation.

natesilver: I don’t think anything Biden’s doing right now matters very much.

He’s also done more than the media has generally acknowledged.

perry: I think Biden is in the conversation. But his general ideas (Trump should listen to the medical experts, social distancing should continue) are what basically the media, governors, experts, everyone else is saying. Biden is not trying to stand out in that conversation or be interesting, which I think is normatively good. He is not offering weird ideas to stand out.

natesilver: The narrative is dumb. It’s always dumb at this stage of the campaign, when the primary winner has in all probability been decided but it’s not technically over yet. It would be a lot worse if not for coronavirus since the media would have a lot more news cycles to fill with fake drama.

nrakich: Yeah, Sarah, Biden hasn’t been as much of a presence on our TV sets, but I don’t think that’s his fault, as Nate pointed out. I think cable news just hasn’t been giving him a lot of airtime. The other day, major networks decided to air Cuomo’s briefing on the coronavirus instead of Biden’s speech.

But what Biden has to say on the coronavirus is more relevant to a majority of the country.

natesilver: It shouldn’t give him a lot of airtime!

Biden’s not hugely relevant at the moment.

nrakich: I think they should give him more than Cuomo! Biden might be president at this time next year. Cuomo governs just 6 percent of the country.

natesilver: Cuomo is dealing with the realities on the ground in a way Biden isn’t. And New York has a lot more than 6 percent of coronavirus cases.

He’s also doing a pretty effective job of communicating about coronavirus data and where the state and the country is in combating the epidemic.

I don’t think he’d get as much press coverage if he hadn’t been doing a good job with the communication side of things. It’s earned media in the truest sense of the word.

sarahf: That’s fair. A lot of what’s happening now is outside of Biden’s control, and obviously, there’s a lot we can’t answer, but Americans still rate Trump really highly on the economy — 57 percent said they approve of how he’s handling it, which marked a new high for him in that same ABC/WaPo poll. What’s more, Trump led Biden on this metric, 50 to 42 percent. Couldn’t that pose a real problem for Biden moving forward, especially if it’s harder for him to be a part of the conversation now?

nrakich: I think this is Exhibit A for it being too early to say anything. It seems like the economy is going to be in real trouble. If unemployment hits 30 percent or the gross domestic product growth rate is -15 percent, I don’t think Americans will continue to approve of Trump’s handling of the economy.

natesilver: No, I don’t think anything about the polls right now tells us very much about what the situation is likely to look like in September, or November.

People haven’t been living with this for very long. A lot of the consequences haven’t happened yet. And after the consequences, there’s the opportunity for a rebound, or a second wave.

You just have to be patient. Right now, I spend a lot more time looking at, say, the number of new COVID-19 cases in Italy than at Trump’s approval rating. I’d argue that the former tells us more about his reelection odds than the latter, since it tells us something about the extent to which a coronavirus epidemic can slow down post-peak.

sarahf: I can’t help but think that part of the narrative is being set now, though, about Biden having an enthusiasm problem. Of course, it could be that enthusiasm for Biden doesn’t really matter because enthusiasm to elect anyone but Trump is a bigger motivating factor, but I do wonder how that plays out in the coming months. Even if the enthusiasm gap isn’t real, could the perception of one still hurt Biden?

natesilver: Just one troll question after another.

sarahf: I know! But I think people are thinking about this — and even if it’s premature now — I do wonder how it takes root, even when it shouldn’t.

nrakich: That’s interesting, Sarah. Yeah, I wouldn’t be surprised if cable news continually covers Biden with the implication that he is somehow inadequate or not up to the task of beating Trump. I don’t know if that could become a self-fulfilling prophecy or not.

natesilver: I think if anything people tend to overlearn the lessons of the most recent election. A lot of the templates that people applied from the 2016 primaries to the 2020 primaries led to completely wrong predictions, like vastly understating Biden’s chances.

The fact that Democrats are worried about an enthusiasm gap because of 2016 could easily help Biden because it will scare Democrats into voting.

nrakich: I certainly agree that people try way too hard to retrofit the lessons of the previous election. To many (especially those with an anti-Sanders agenda), Clinton lost because Sanders voters weren’t united around her. But can’t it just be enough that she lost because it was an extremely tight election and that happens sometimes?

perry: Biden could very well lose the general election. And he could lose in the same way that Clinton did — a center-left Democrat wins the primary on the strength of older voters, particularly older black voters, but then loses in the general, with Trump winning in key swing states even as he loses the national popular vote.

But Clinton almost won and Biden very much could win. I don’t think Biden has an enthusiasm “problem,” but having enthusiastic supporters who are donating a lot of money, volunteering and eventually turning out to vote in large numbers always helps. So getting as much of Sanders’s crowd on board as possible will be useful for Biden.

Do I think it would be better for Biden if polls showed people were excited to vote for him? Yes, because I do think there is the potential that “people are holding their nose and voting for Biden” becomes a narrative.

nrakich: I also think a lot of the problem is that no one media members or the Twitterati know personally is enthusiastic to vote for Biden. Which of course speaks to the bubbles they live in. But that can have real effects on the narrative, as Perry said.

perry: But it’s hard for me to look at these polls right now and say Biden has an actual enthusiasm problem — or really many problems at all.

#IFTTT #Politics – FiveThirtyEight #politics #538 #A FiveThirtyEight Chat

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cathrynstreich · 4 years

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Coronavirus: Should Young Adults Move Back in With Mom and Dad?

(TNS)—Andres Vidaurre’s story is a lot like those of the many young adults who make their way to Los Angeles in search of work and a vibrant, diverse city to call home.

The 27-year-old Houston native moved here two years ago after attending Notre Dame University and settled down in a five-bedroom home in northeast Los Angeles that he found on Craigslist. He has roommates—22 to be exact. Each tenant pays $580 a month and each room has several bunk beds.

Vidaurre loved the vibe, and so when the house manager moved out, he took over the role, which allowed him to live there for free. The additional work came with a new set of headaches, but his duties never included “pandemic response”—until last month.

On March 14, one of his roommates texted to say he had tested positive for the novel coronavirus and had moved back with his family in Fresno.

Vidaurre delivered the news to his roommates. Almost everyone handled it calmly, he said. But there were a few exceptions, including one who started packing and left that night on a 13-hour drive back to his parents’ home in Oregon.

But moving back in with his parents isn’t an option for Vidaurre, the way it might be for others in their mid-20s. His mom has an autoimmune disorder.

“Going to Houston and coming into contact with them is really not a desire I have right now,” he said. “I just really hope they stay inside.”

In the last month, as the headlines about the pandemic have become grimmer, young people in cities across the country have contemplated the possibility of moving home to live with their parents or extended family.

Some of them can’t afford it. Others, like Vidaurre, worry that they might be asymptomatic and put their medically frail relatives at risk, as some reports suggest that infection is more likely to happen in clusters, such as with a family living under one roof.

But many others are returning to their childhood bedrooms and setting up workstations in the dining room of homes where food—and support—are in ample supply. The trade-off is often living in a household where siblings are sleeping nearby and families are trying to figure out who will do a video-conference from what room.

Decisions to stay or go have been made under pressure, sometimes in haste. For those who have moved home, it’s not clear how long they’ll be there. It’s highly unlikely that anyone was thinking about their emotional or financial independence, but their decisions could very well influence the way they and their parents navigate the world for the rest of their lives.

Young people who are hunkered down far from their immediate families may be confronted with parents whose separation anxiety is growing. Subtle cues may be missed; estrangements may be amplified.

But no one can think about any of that right now. The future will have to wait.

Cole Gilbert, 26, says the seriousness of this pandemic sneaked up on him. As California schools closed and Gov. Gavin Newsom told people over age 65 to stay home, Gilbert said, he continued to live a “normal” life, going out for drinks March 14 at a packed bar in Venice, where he lives.

Then, days later, Newsom asked restaurants to close to dine-in guests.

Gilbert thought about his routine and started to worry about washing his clothes at the laundromat. “I didn’t want to go to the grocery store,” anticipating a long shut-in.

“I feel like in a time of crisis, the places I retreat to are my comfort zones,” Gilbert said.

So he grabbed his dirty clothes, his two dogs and headed to his parents’ place in Long Beach.

Gilbert works as a production manager for his family’s aerospace finishing company. The Friday before he returned home, the company had furloughed half its staff as business dropped off. Gilbert wondered whether his move home might be permanent.

After business started to pick up again, the company was able to bring employees back on and Gilbert surveyed the landscape.

Living at home hasn’t been so bad.

“I’m more of a grown-up now about everything,” he said. “Going home and realizing I have responsibilities at the house. Now that I’m their guest, I’m not treating it like my home. I’m trying to do my part,” running errands and buying groceries.

Gilbert has given up his place in Venice and plans on being a Long Beach resident for the foreseeable future. But he swears it won’t be forever.

As the novel coronavirus continues its assault, how should families deal with the return of adult children who considered themselves launched?

Julie Lythcott-Haims is a former college administrator with two college-aged children who have returned to their Palo Alto home. Her 81-year-old mother lives in a small house on the back of the property and her 20-year-old son just came out of a 14-day quarantine after returning from Portland, where he lives and works.

The author of “How to Raise an Adult,” Lythcott-Haims said there’s a fine balance that parents need to strike between communicating the seriousness of following rules and young people’s desire for the independence they had when they were living on their own.

“Everybody is accustomed to greater autonomy and freedom, and now we’re in an environment where everyone is supposed to be locked down,” she said. “We kind of want to be sure everybody is abiding by the rules, and yet we’re all adults here. So I think there’s a lot of walking on eggshells about serious issues.”

Lythcott-Haims says this all fundamentally comes down to trust—whether the person has returned home or not.

For young adults who are far away from family, it’s also a fraught time. When twentysomethings are separated in moments like this, she says, they become more like peers with their parents. Trust comes when parents and adult children are able to have honest conversations about the risks they are facing and the precautions they are taking.

“I think they’re both worried about each other and they’re both having compassion for each other and wanting to check up and check in,” Lythcott-Haims says. “But inherently, each is required to look after oneself, which I think develops agency and resilience in those young adults who did not return home.”

Lucy Putnam, 23, didn’t have to travel far to get home. Still, it was a decision that gave her pause as she wrestled with the implications of getting her parents or siblings sick.

Putnam’s roommates at her apartment near Beverly Grove had been on the go, not paying much attention to social distancing before it was mandated. “I had been interacting with my roommates,” she said, so she asked her parents, “Would you prefer (for) me to stay in my apartment? I’m young and it won’t affect me.'”

No, her mother said, please come home.

Putnam, who works in film and TV development and can work from home, is grateful to have the means and the ability to ride this out in her childhood bedroom in West L.A. There was, however, the challenge of having a boyfriend, who had been coming and going from the house, which worried her parents. He eventually returned to his family’s home on the East Coast.

Three weeks into the stay-at-home order in Los Angeles, Vidaurre’s circle of roommates continues to shrink and his anxiety growing.

It turned out the housemate who returned to Fresno had not been infected with the coronavirus. He had influenza.

There are still about 15 people living in the house in northeast L.A.

With that many people in close quarters, Vidaurre feels like he constantly needs to clean dishes in the communal kitchen. When someone else begins cleaning, he wonders if the cutlery he just left to dry has been contaminated.

“It just increases the paranoia so much,” he said. “If it were possible to transition to living alone and creating an environment that can be clean and safe, I would do that.”

Vidaurre plans to be out of the house by the end of the month.

He and one of his roommates, Oko Carter, 30, share a box of disposable masks.

As with Vidaurre, Carter returning to his family isn’t an option. Both his grandparents are over 70 and not in great health. And his dad is a truck driver transporting medical equipment in Florida.

Carter’s dog-walking and dog-sitting business has dried up, but he has lived in Los Angeles for a decade, and he says that if he’s going to ride this out somewhere, it’s going to be here.

For now, he shares a room with two other people—one of whom works at a local 7-Eleven. Some of his housemates have lost their jobs or are struggling in the gig economy.

“The bedroom normally holds five people, but only three are here right now,” Carter says, sounding almost relieved. “It’s just been this feeling for those who have remained —it’s been a little sad seeing people who had work just have nothing.”

Still, Carter remains optimistic. He notes what’s been written on the dry-erase board in the communal kitchen.

“Keep your head up.”

The post Coronavirus: Should Young Adults Move Back in With Mom and Dad? appeared first on RISMedia.

Coronavirus: Should Young Adults Move Back in With Mom and Dad? published first on https://thegardenresidences.tumblr.com/

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gordonwilliamsweb · 5 years

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Must-Reads Of The Week From Brianna Labuskes

The Friday Breeze

Newsletter editor Brianna Labuskes, who reads everything on health care to compile our daily Morning Briefing, offers the best and most provocative stories for the weekend.

Happy Friday! Have you all settled on your preferred method of greeting people now that handshakes are verboden? Vice President Mike Pence apparently favors the forearm bump, but I particularly like the foot tap, which you should very much feel free to expand into funky dance moves at random.

Also, has anyone actually managed to stop touching your face? (She asks after 10 minutes of working with her hand on her face.) Most of the tips I’ve seen have been utterly useless (relax, you’re going to fail was actually one of them).

Anyway, brace yourself, friends. I have all the coronavirus news you could ever want. Here we go:

— President Donald Trump signed an $8.3 billion emergency spending package aimed at fighting the outbreak that made it through Congress with stunning enough speed that most people felt compelled to mention it. Look, they can actually get stuff done. In the package: Each state gets at least $4 million and HHS gets $3.1 billion to spend on medical supplies, vaccine-making and ensuring health systems are up to handling the outbreak.

— This is good news because the United States sailed past 200 confirmed cases, and it’s just expected to skyrocket from there. Some of the states where there have been patients: California, Washington, New Jersey, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Texas.

— Speaking of confirmed cases, that might actually be hard to tally because, as Pence has admitted, there are not enough testing kits to meet the surge in demand now that restrictions beyond a doctor’s green light have been lifted. But the good news is both insurers and the government said they are covering the costs of the tests for patients who end up getting them.

— So, should you get tested? No one wants to be the jerk who spreads the virus to a vulnerable population, but the already stressed health system shouldn’t have to bear the added strain of treating everyone with only a common cold or the flu. If you have symptoms you can manage at home, do so. If you’re experiencing shortness of breath, unremitting fever, weakness or lethargy, it’s time to call the doctor.

— President Donald Trump’s bombastic style and rosy promises are colliding with the somber tone set by his top health officials. Trump has repeatedly misstated the number of Americans who have tested positive for the virus and claimed it would “miraculously” disappear in the spring, given a false timeline for the development of a vaccine, publicly questioned whether vaccinations for the flu could be used to treat the virus and dismissed WHO’s death rate estimates. At a time when public faith in the government is critical to fighting panic and hysteria, experts worry the mixed messaging is doing anything but.

— Does that mean Trump is getting the administration he always wanted? He rallies the people, Pence governs them, as Gabby Orr and Anita Kumar say in Politico’s story. Whatever the case, the stakes couldn’t be higher for Pence, who is stepping into the spotlight after living most of the past years in Trump’s shadow.

— If the United States’ outbreak had an epicenter, it would likely be Washington state, where a nursing facility played host to a cluster of cases and was responsible for much of the death toll in the country (which stands at 14 at press time). Relatives of those in the nursing facility are livid that their loved ones are being kept essentially as “prisoners,” especially since the virus has proven to be particularly deadly for older patients. “It’s like we are waiting for them to be picked off, one by one,” said the son-in-law of one resident.

— In response to this Washington state cluster, CMS is intensifying its infection-control efforts for nursing homes, where safety and quality breaches have long been a problem.

— California has also been hit harder so far by the outbreak, and Gov. Gavin Newsom has declared a state of emergency so that health officials can be better prepared to handle the cases. Meanwhile, a cruise ship is being held off the coast of San Francisco after a previous passenger was the state’s first coronavirus death. Test kits were helicoptered out to the ship, but many are left worrying that it’s going to become a floating petri dish, just like the one held off the coast of Japan in the early days of the outbreak.

— Globally, stock markets went tumbling as the number of confirmed cases surged past 100,000.

The Friday Breeze

Want a roundup of the must-read stories this week chosen by KHN Newsletter Editor Brianna Labuskes? Sign up for The Friday Breeze today.

Please confirm your email address below:

All right, that was the news you should know to keep yourself updated, but here are some of the more interesting stories of the week:

— It used to be a rule of thumb that there were about three pandemics per century. So far, 20 years in, we’ve had at least seven scares. What’s to blame? Urbanization, globalization and increased consumption of animal proteins.

— For a president who has built his brand on “America First,” a global epidemic poses a unique challenge. Responding to the crisis is entangling him with institutions he doesn’t like (such as WHO), undercutting his strong-border rhetoric as travel restrictions fail and forcing him into a financial reckoning as global markets plunge.

— In research that surprises no one, there’s a gender gap when it comes to bathroom hygiene habits. Want to guess which way it skews?

— You’ve read the stories about how, at least right now, the flu is far deadlier to Americans than is the coronavirus. So, why the hysteria? The fact that the coronavirus is new, foreign and we don’t have a vaccine or treatment for it means it’s hitting all our fear-based psychological hot buttons.

— So, how many people are actually infected? Some researchers think that only one-third of cases coming out of China have been observed.

— Is there an end in sight? Maybe, but researchers don’t really know what it’s going to look like. Past pandemics give us clues, though. In general, it seems experts think it might burn out by summer but enter into the rotation of seasonal flus, which return every year.

— “I assumed it was all being paid for.”

— And no matter how ready you are, it’s almost impossible to account for all the ways human error can throw a wrench in your response efforts.

Holy moly. If you’re interested in falling further down the rabbit hole, check out the Morning Briefings for (and I say this with zero exaggeration) literally hundreds of more stories. For now, let’s trudge onward to other news in the health sphere.

Highly anticipated oral arguments in a case involving abortion providers’ hospital admitting privileges finally played out. Eyes were mostly on swing-vote Chief Justice John Roberts, who asked pointed questions about whether the court was bound by a 2016 Supreme Court decision on a similar Texas law. In that case, the majority opinion found no evidence that Texas’ admitting-privileges requirement “would have helped even one woman obtain better treatment.” Roberts seemed to be questioning why that would change on a state-to-state basis.

Meanwhile, both Democrats and Republicans have seized on the idea of “sanctuary cities” as a way of walling themselves off from policies they find distasteful. For the left, it’s been used as a way to avoid cracking down on cities’ immigration population. For the right, it’s about abortion.

The Supreme Court delighted Democrats this week when it decided to take up a case on the health law. The decision won’t likely come until after 2020, but the oral arguments could be held in October, right before the election. That means health care — a topic in which Dems have the edge — will be top of mind in the contentious weeks right before voters go to the polls.

A federal judge dealt the latest blow to Medicaid work requirements when he blocked Michigan’s “community engagement” waiver. The judge cited a decision on similar rules in Arkansas. The opinion found that the waiver approval was not consistent with the primary objective of the Medicaid statute: furnishing medical coverage.

A new study found that for decades the VA unlawfully turned away thousands of veterans who have other-than-honorable discharges. The discharges — colloquially known as “bad papers” — make it less likely that veterans will qualify for services. But the agency is required by law to accept applications. That’s not what was happening, though.

That’s it from me! Remember, keep calm, wash your hands and don’t buy face masks. (Health professionals actually need them!) Have a good weekend.

Must-Reads Of The Week From Brianna Labuskes published first on https://nootropicspowdersupplier.tumblr.com/

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stephenmccull · 5 years

Text

Must-Reads Of The Week From Brianna Labuskes

The Friday Breeze

Newsletter editor Brianna Labuskes, who reads everything on health care to compile our daily Morning Briefing, offers the best and most provocative stories for the weekend.

Anyway, brace yourself, friends. I have all the coronavirus news you could ever want. Here we go:

— In response to this Washington state cluster, CMS is intensifying its infection-control efforts for nursing homes, where safety and quality breaches have long been a problem.

— Globally, stock markets went tumbling as the number of confirmed cases surged past 100,000.

The Friday Breeze

Want a roundup of the must-read stories this week chosen by KHN Newsletter Editor Brianna Labuskes? Sign up for The Friday Breeze today.

Please confirm your email address below:

All right, that was the news you should know to keep yourself updated, but here are some of the more interesting stories of the week:

— In research that surprises no one, there’s a gender gap when it comes to bathroom hygiene habits. Want to guess which way it skews?

— So, how many people are actually infected? Some researchers think that only one-third of cases coming out of China have been observed.

— “I assumed it was all being paid for.”

— And no matter how ready you are, it’s almost impossible to account for all the ways human error can throw a wrench in your response efforts.

That’s it from me! Remember, keep calm, wash your hands and don’t buy face masks. (Health professionals actually need them!) Have a good weekend.

Must-Reads Of The Week From Brianna Labuskes published first on https://smartdrinkingweb.weebly.com/

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dinafbrownil · 5 years

Text

Must-Reads Of The Week From Brianna Labuskes

The Friday Breeze

Newsletter editor Brianna Labuskes, who reads everything on health care to compile our daily Morning Briefing, offers the best and most provocative stories for the weekend.

Anyway, brace yourself, friends. I have all the coronavirus news you could ever want. Here we go:

— In response to this Washington state cluster, CMS is intensifying its infection-control efforts for nursing homes, where safety and quality breaches have long been a problem.

— Globally, stock markets went tumbling as the number of confirmed cases surged past 100,000.

The Friday Breeze

Want a roundup of the must-read stories this week chosen by KHN Newsletter Editor Brianna Labuskes? Sign up for The Friday Breeze today.

Please confirm your email address below:

All right, that was the news you should know to keep yourself updated, but here are some of the more interesting stories of the week:

— In research that surprises no one, there’s a gender gap when it comes to bathroom hygiene habits. Want to guess which way it skews?

— So, how many people are actually infected? Some researchers think that only one-third of cases coming out of China have been observed.

— “I assumed it was all being paid for.”

— And no matter how ready you are, it’s almost impossible to account for all the ways human error can throw a wrench in your response efforts.

That’s it from me! Remember, keep calm, wash your hands and don’t buy face masks. (Health professionals actually need them!) Have a good weekend.

from Updates By Dina https://khn.org/news/friday-breeze-health-care-policy-must-reads-of-the-week-from-brianna-labuskes-march-6-2020/

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gordonwilliamsweb · 5 years

Text

Must-Reads Of The Week From Brianna Labuskes

The Friday Breeze

Newsletter editor Brianna Labuskes, who reads everything on health care to compile our daily Morning Briefing, offers the best and most provocative stories for the weekend.

Anyway, brace yourself, friends. I have all the coronavirus news you could ever want. Here we go:

— In response to this Washington state cluster, CMS is intensifying its infection-control efforts for nursing homes, where safety and quality breaches have long been a problem.

— Globally, stock markets went tumbling as the number of confirmed cases surged past 100,000.

The Friday Breeze

Want a roundup of the must-read stories this week chosen by KHN Newsletter Editor Brianna Labuskes? Sign up for The Friday Breeze today.

Please confirm your email address below:

All right, that was the news you should know to keep yourself updated, but here are some of the more interesting stories of the week:

— In research that surprises no one, there’s a gender gap when it comes to bathroom hygiene habits. Want to guess which way it skews?

— So, how many people are actually infected? Some researchers think that only one-third of cases coming out of China have been observed.

— “I assumed it was all being paid for.”

— And no matter how ready you are, it’s almost impossible to account for all the ways human error can throw a wrench in your response efforts.

That’s it from me! Remember, keep calm, wash your hands and don’t buy face masks. (Health professionals actually need them!) Have a good weekend.

Must-Reads Of The Week From Brianna Labuskes published first on https://nootropicspowdersupplier.tumblr.com/

0 notes