#House Blackbar of Bandallon

[tronodiferro]

House Blackbar of Bandallon

GameOfThronesFanatic-Knjiga

[arronlannister]

who: @butcherofbandallon what: after his conversations in dorne, the prince of fair isle decides to learn more about the ships of the reach. not owned by the florent-redwyne house.

"Butcher of Bandallon, your house had quite the windfall lately. Was you or that big earred brother of yours that was made lord of the shield isles? Which of you answers to the Mistress of Ships? That's how it works in the Reach right? Women sit on your councils and lords wait to get their permissions from her? Fascinating state of affairs." Arron didn't want to be civil with them. It was unspoken but they were not friendly with their allies. It was one of necessity and it seemed they needed it less and less. The Reach thought too highly of themselves and Arron sought to put them down.

They were too bold in the way they chose to behave. Gifted too many ships when they work was equal and he should have spoken against it then. Instead, he wanted to civil. And perhaps he wanted more than to be civil we wished to stake a claim on the Mistress of Ships. Alas, the King chose to raise up his cousin and House Florent. Once again. What was it with those foxes and getting so lucky? He could not say. Alas, he married well for she came with a decent dowry. This pregnancy seemingly harder on her than the first.

"Second question, who put their ships in my waters? Who has deemed it okay to stop my ships and question them? Are you unaware of who it means when you see Lannister sails? Or would it be your brother? Which Blackbar has pissed me off?" It didn't matter. he would speak to young one soon.

[duxbelisarius]

The Dance of the Dragons: A Military Analysis (Pt. 6)

Having already discussed the Battle of the Gullet and the taking of King’s Landing in Parts 2 and 3 (Master Post here for first time readers), Part 6 will take a brief step back into 129 AC to cover events in the Reach. As noted in Part 1, George’s decision to ‘spawn’ supporters for Rhaenyra in the Reach is one of his most frustrating; we have next to no explanation as to why the houses that supported her chose to do so, but their presence also exposes a massive strategic blindspot within the Dance itself. In short, had Rhaenyra and the Blacks given supported her followers in the Reach from the start, they likely would have won the war. Utilizing  the map of southern Westeros found in A Dance With Dragons illustrates this quite well; this map is the most detailed we have in terms of giving locations of house seats within the Reach and gives us an indication of which houses are considered important enough by George to warrant including. 

Of twenty-one House seats shown on the map (counting the Arbor and the Shield Islands each as a single seat), eight are of houses either neutral during the Dance (the Tyrells) or are not mentioned in the Dance: Red Lake (House Crane), Brightwater Keep (Florent), Bandallon (Blackbar), Blackcrown (Bulwer), Sunhouse (Cuy), Ashford and Grassy Vale (Meadows). Excluding Oldtown, only House Redwyne (the Arbor) and House Fossoway (Cider Hall) are known to have supported Aegon II, while the rest were supporters of Rhaenyra: Honeyholt (Beesbury), Longtable (Merryweather), Bitterbridge (Caswell), Horn Hill (Tarly), Uplands (Mullendore), Golden Grove (Rowan), Old Oak (Oakheart), Tumbleton (Footly), Three Towers (Costayne) and the Shield Isles (Grimm). This critical mass of major houses supporting the Blacks is compounded further by the fact that, with the exception of House Peake, all the other named supporters of the Greens seem to be minor houses or landed knights: Roxton, Norcross, Ambrose, Rodden, Leygood, Graceford and Risley. Even the Fossoways require an asterisk based on Lord Owen Fossoway being mentioned among the so-called ‘Caltrops’ at Tumbleton; given Cider Hall’s location south of Longtable, it’s entirely possible the Fossoways were neutrals or Blacks who joined Aegon’s cause after the victories of Daeron and Ormund. 

George’s inexplicable decision to weight the scales against the Greens of the Reach is made worse by nonsensical writing once the fighting starts. Upon setting out to putdown the Black rebellions within the Reach, Ormund Hightower’s army is attacked by the forces of House Beesbury and House Tarly, while House Costayne’s forces attack his supply train. This scenario makes no sense geographically, for while Costayne’s seat of Three Towers is located just south of Oldtown at the mouth of the Whispering Sound and the Beesbury seat of Honeyholt is further up the Honeywine, the Tarly seat of Horn Hill is almost a 10 day journey from Oldtown. It requires Ormund Hightower to be completely unaware of Alan Tarly departing the Dornish Marches and entering the Oldtown region, and to ignore the Costaynes and Mullendores to his south and east despite the threat they posed to his rear area. We know from Under the Regents - War and Peace and Cattle Shows that House Peake supported Aegon II from the beginning, and while we have no exact location for their house seat it seems likely that Starpike is located in the Dornish Marches. Are we to assume that Unwin Peake failed to combat Alan Tarly’s forces, even though House Peake fought alongside the Hightowers at the subsequent Battle of the Honeywine? We must also assume that not a single house in the Oldtown region supported Aegon’s cause outside of the Hightowers, as support from the likes of House Cuy and Florent would have made it difficult for the Costaynes and ‘the Two Alans’ to operate against Ormund’s host with such impunity. The idea seems never to have occurred to besiege Honeyholt and Three Towers, cutting off the Costayne and Beesbury forces from what should have been their main source of supplies, and taking their families hostage to force a surrender. 

The complete absence of the Hightower and Redwyne fleets, as well as a disuse of river transport, is another frustrating omission by George. Honeyholt and the Mullendore seat of Uplands are both located next to the Honeywine and it’s tributaries, while Three Towers is right beside the Whispering Sound. Laying siege to Three Towers should have been fairly simply for Ormund with the aid of the Hightower and Redwyne fleets, while the Honeywine itself would have been a boon logistically. From Samwell Tarly’s final chapter in AFFC, we know that the Isle of Ravens was used by pirates to raid ships coming down the Honeywine during the Age of Heroes, implying that the Honeywine connects to the Whispering Sound in a manner similar to the Thames Estuary and the London Docks IRL. It’s not unreasonable to assume that coastal shipping and sea-faring vessels with shallow enough drafts would be able to navigate certain stretches of the Honeywine, and this also assumes that the Reachmen never attempted dredging the riverbed to improve it’s navigability (as was done to European rivers throughout the Ancient and Medieval world). Utilizing river transport as a ‘floating storehouse’ so-to-speak would allow Ormund to decrease the length of his supply train and give his forces greater mobility. Such ships could also have been built or modified to carry in-world artillery such as Scorpions, Catapults and even small trebuchets (the latter of which were used on ships by Danish raiders during the Siege of Paris in 885-886), assisting Ormund’s forces in besieging locations like Honeyholt, Uplands and Three Towers or if they had to give battle near the river itself. 

Ormund’s position deteriorates further after the Battle of Rook’s Rest, when he informs the Green Council of a host equal to his own bearing down from the north, lead by Thaddeus Rowan. With him was Tom Flowers  of Bitterbridge representing House Caswell, and their army is described as being comprised of mounted knights; based on estimates of the size both armies made in Part 4, this force composition presents a problem for the narrative. If we are to believe that the Rowans, Caswells and their allies raised a mounted force capable of rivalling Ormund’s army as a whole (giving them an advantage as great as 10 to 1 in mounted troops), then their rate of march must also be considered. Rowan’s force was on the march just before or after Rook’s Rest, but the next we hear of them is at the Battle of the Honeywine, which took place a fortnight after the Battle of the Gullet in 130 AC. The Gullet took place between January 5th and 6th by our calendar, meaning the Honeywine battle took place on January 19th or 20th; 129 AC ends sometime after Rook’s Rest, so anywhere from one to three months may have elapsed before Rowan and Flowers made contact with Ormund’s host. 

Journeying from Golden Grove to the Honeywine would probably take a fortnight and the journey from Bitterbridge might be five days longer, but Rowan’s mounted force should have been able to make the journey in far less time. They should also have been able to utilize river-based logistics similar to the Hightowers, given that Golden Grove, Bitterbridge and their allies are situated along the Mander and it’s tributaries. We know from Victarion Greyjoy in AFFC that Ironborn longships can travel up the Mander as far as Bitterbridge when most sea-faring ships stop at Highgarden, while John II Gardener was able to sail his barge as far the headwaters of the Mander according to TWOIAF. As with the Honeywine, George effectively pretends that the Mander does not exist, while the vagueness of the timeline will be a recurring factor in the Dance.

The Battle of the Honeywine itself does not permit much tactical analysis, as we’re only told that the battle took place along the river with Rowan and Flowers attacking from the northeast and Costayne, Beesbury and Tarly attacking from the rear. Having failed inexplicably to deal with the threats to his supply lines, Ormund Hightower and his army are cut off from Oldtown and facing certain defeat; only the intervention of Daeron and Tessarion that prevents this, and the battle ends with Rowan in retreat to the north, Tom Flowers and Lord Costayne dead, and the ‘Two Alans’ taken prisoner. 

In analyzing this first act of the Dance in the Reach, it is clear that George did not grasp the implications of his decision to furnish Rhaenyra with such significant support there. Without Daeron’s intervention, the Battle of the Honeywine would have been the death of Aegon’s cause in the Reach, as Oldtown would have been defenseless; surrender would be the most likely outcome, and with it Rhaenyra would have had the agricultural heart of the Seven Kingdoms on her side, along with the largest armies of any of the Seven Kingdoms. With control of the Riverlands and the Reach, the Blacks would have cut off Aegon from his allies in the Westerlands, and could threaten that kingdom with invasion from the south and east. Aegon would have only the Crownlands and the Stormlands at his immediate disposal, and only Vhagar and an injured Sunfyre as a defense against Rhaenyra’s dragons. Had Daemon and Caraxes left the Riverlands (now firmly on Rhaenyra’s side) and joined the Blacks in the northern Reach, Daeron and Tessarion would have been hard-pressed to defeat them, and a Black victory would be assured. 

[visxionaries]

a short, brief letter received by @garlandhightower and @altanryams from cedric tyrell, set before his conversation with lord omer florent. in this, a precedent is set (this is also sent to fergus blackbar!)

lords of the reach,

from this day, you are charged with ensuring your smugglers, thieves and looters remain underground - where they belong. the roads and all public domain are to remain clear of any territorial disputes between the common thugs of oldtown, the arbor, brightwater and bandallon.

any who break this decree will be subject to economic sanction imposed by the crown. those involved will be strung up and hung on the sides of the roads.

heed the warning.

king cedric of house tyrell, first of his name.

[conallblackbar]

october 2nd 112 ac - conall blackbar is born

a happy-go-lucky child, he spent his early years chasing his brother around, for wherever kieran blackbar was, conall was never far away. it would not be inaccurate to say he hero worshipped his older brother - a role model and sibling all in one.

130 ac - the dance begins

during the dance, where house blackbar fought for the greens, he did what he had done for most of his life thus far - he followed his brother, fighting at his side. he is an athletic and capable fighter, but perhaps not extraordinary enough to distinguish himself the way his brother was. still, he fought, he killed, and he survived, which is a feat in itself, and found that he quite enjoyed the camaraderie amongst men at war.

136 ac - marriage to abigail wylde

his marriage to abigail wylde was born of love, their courtship beginning when they were both very young. the dance prolonged the engagement, but they did eventually wed. they both very much wanted to be married to one another, the dance was still ongoing, and conall was not around much. conall was unfaithful to her during his time away from home. she was not faithful to him either. things became very messy, very quickly.

139 ac - the death of abigail wylde

by the third year of their marriage, abigail was aware of her husband's infidelity. whilst they were attempting to work on their issues, those close to either party at the time were aware the couple were in a bad way, arguing often and rarely sharing a bed. this came to a head the night of her death, when the couple attended a feast and ended up in a public spat. conall excused himself, and was not seen before the end of the night. abigail remained at the feast, and was still up when most of the guests retired. later, ronan bracken found abigail blackbar dead at the bottom of a flight of stairs. the death was investigated, and conall ruled out as a suspect, but mud sticks - there are still persistent rumours that he offed her by chucking her down some stairs. there are other theories swirling about what happened to her, from murder, to suicide, to a drunken fall, but nothing was ever confirmed. other guests at the feast include ronan bracken, kieran blackbar, willow wylde, cyrene frey and jack grafton.

140 ac - the dance ends

with the reach becoming independent, conall returns to bandallon, beginning a self-destructive life of drinking, gambling, and fighting. however, despite his troubles, he still commits himself to his duties and performs them well. he takes charge of captaining the blackbar fleet, as well as assisting with bandallon boys dealings. post-dance, he fought to wipe out the iron islands, in the reach civil war, and in the shield isles. over the last four years, conall has sporadically attended various events in westeros, including peace talks in dorne and the westerland's celebration of prince arthur's birth, but is not present for king jaehaerys' coronation, during the troubles in the north, and notably is absent for the entirety of the reach's wedding season. he attends the litha festival on the order of kind cedric, though likely would have gone anyway.

[briannabrackens]

who: @omerflorent where and when: the castle of riverrun, shortly after omer florent's arrival to the riverlands to speak with the river king directly. in regards to plot events, the lyseni attack upon the river market has already happened.

she had been fifteen when discussions of being betrothed to lord omer florent of brightwater keep had begun: and in truth, she found him quite uncomely. arrogant, in the way that was not exactly funny. not to mention old, incredibly older - in reflection, brianna could understand that it was an attempt to try and lure the florents away from neutrality with a bracken dowry to fly the flag of green. they shared kin: the blackbars, being cousins to both house bracken and house florent.

whilst the betrothal did not go through, house bracken continued to keep up it's close relationship with house florent within the kingdom of the reach.

afterall, they were all distant kin: that of the four leaf clover, and spirit. spoke the same tongue, understood one another: which was why she found her attitude increasingly irritated toward the high commander of the reach. they were not of close association, but she looked upon him and thought him a traitor to an extension of his own: not only were talks occurring with the blackwoods of all people, when the deal had fallen through due to the hand's overall boyish nature, omer did not reach out to his extended kin to have them secure the ships.

to do the deal with the blackwoods, over those who were like him. as though their shared kin were not blackbars of bandallon. she hoped a horse kicked him; what else did he expect when associating with blackwoods? did he think bloody ben would not make a whore of his wife?

she knew ronan would wish to speak and settle the matter with him in the manner the two always did: she, however, believed he had no place in the riverlands and his request to see the river king should have been rejected. their people had died as a result of growing tensions, but there was no denying the support the ships would have provided: they had the funeral of children to attend of a council member. and where was the support of brethren?

and so the pair awaited ronan in tense silence, her hands remaining folded over her chest as she heard the sounds of her corgi clover pacing up and down, muddy paws upon the rug. she offered him no refreshments as he sat within the main audience chamber of the bracken apartments - she did not even offer him the chance to sit down. "he'll be here soon." there was a slight pause as she leaned over to move her dog off the rug.

"thank the gods." she mumbled, loud enough for him to hear, in a tone that was clearly irritated.

[roombachicken]

Why Renly didn't know about the incest.

A popular theory is that Renly Baratheon knew about the incest all along. It's so popular it's treated as fact.

But I maintain that he didn't know, and I think the text supports my assertion.

Here I've listed the common arguments for why he knew, and my rebuttal to them.

It's impossible for Robert to set Cersei aside without the incest

Then why do all these people think he can?

He's still in love with the sister, the insipid little dead sixteen-year-old. How long till he decides to put me aside for some new Lyanna?

( A Game of Thrones, Bran II)

"He was a wretched king . . . vain, drunken, lecherous . . . he would have set your sister aside, his own queen . . . please . . . Renly was plotting to bring the Highgarden maid to court, to entice his brother . . . it is the gods' own truth . . ."

"And what was Lord Arryn plotting?"

"He knew," Pycelle said. "About . . . about . . ."

"I know what he knew about," snapped Tyrion, who was not anxious for Shagga and Timett to know as well.

(A Clash of Kings, Tyrion VI)

Both Pycelle and Cersei think that Robert could set Cersei aside if he wanted to. You can argue that Cersei is paranoid and not well versed in politics, but Pycelle? Pycelle is a maester who would have an in depth knowledge of Westeros history.

Pycelle says Renly was plotting to bring Margaery to court so that Cersei would be set aside, and that Jon Arryn knew about the incest, but he doesn't seem to think Renly knew. Tyrion, a very well read person, does not express surprise or disbelief at Renly's scheme, but takes it in stride.

And there's that word: "put aside". If Renly was planning to use the incest, Cersei would be executed, not put aside.

The Knight of Flowers writes Highgarden, urging his lord father to send his sister to court. The girl is a maid of fourteen, sweet and beautiful and tractable, and Lord Renly and Ser Loras intend that Robert should bed her, wed her, and make a new queen. Littlefinger … the gods only know what game Littlefinger is playing. Yet Lord Stark's the one who troubles my sleep. He has the bastard, he has the book, and soon enough he'll have the truth. 

(A Game of Thrones, Arya III)

Varys also doesn't seem to think Renly knew. He's afraid of Ned revealing the truth but doesn't imply that Renly was planning to reveal the incest in his scheme. Why?

“I had never suspected you were so clever, Stannis. Were it only true, you would indeed be Robert’s heir.”

“Were it true? Do you name me a liar?”

“Can you prove any word of this fable?”

Stannis ground his teeth.

“We both know your wedding was a mummer’s farce. A year ago you were scheming to make the girl one of Robert’s whores.”

“A year ago I was scheming to make the girl Robert’s queen,” Renly said.

(A Clash of Kings, Catelyn III)

At the parley between Renly and Stannis, Renly denies knowledge of the incest while freely admitting he was planning on making Margaery queen. If the incest was necessary to make Margaery queen, why doesn't Stannis accuse him of knowing about it and using it in his scheme? If the Margaery plan was so impossible, why does Catelyn not think about that when Renly tells the everyone present at the parley about it?

Also, are we supposed to believe that Renly was so careless with his Margaery scheme half the court knew about it, but not a whiff about him supposedly knowing about the incest?

He had to know, otherwise the Tyrells wouldn't agree

I have a counter to that as well:

1) It's not known if the Tyrells did agree. We only hear of Renly and Loras urging Mace to bring Margaery to court, but we don't know if he was going to or if the letter had even been sent (Varys might have prevented it).

2) Margaery being queen would still be a huge coup.

Plans had been under way for some time for the two of them to make another progress the following year, returning to the westerlands for the first time in twenty years. Shortly after their falling out, the queen informed Jaehaerys that he should go alone. She was going back to Dragonstone, alone, to grieve for their dead daughters.

...By that time, the queen’s absence had been noticed, and His Grace would oft find himself seated next to some lissome maid or handsome widow at feasts, or riding beside them when hawking or hunting, but he took no notice of any of them. At Bandallon, when Lord Blackbar’s youngest daughter was so bold as to seat herself in his lap and attempt to feed him a grape, he brushed her hand aside and said, “Forgive me, but I have a queen, and no taste for paramours.”

(Fire and Blood, Jaeherys and Alysanne: The Long Reign)

We know that even being the king's mistress is very desirable based on how many girls were trying to seduce Jaeherys at his first progress without Alysanne.

Aegon IV also had many paramours. With their influence on the king they were able to get their family wealth and power. Robert could hand out council positions, lands, castles and favours to the Tyrells.

Robert still also has many years to live, so the Tyrells could also exert their influence on Joffrey and his siblings, to make sure by the time Joffrey ascends the throne all the gains aren't reversed.

There's no precedent!

That isn't quite true either.

"Wars are bad for trade," said Lord Dorian Hightower, when he set aside his wife of twenty years, the mother of his children, to take an Andal princess as his bride.

(The World of Ice and Fire - The Reach: Oldtown)

Garth the Great extended the borders of his realm northward, winning Old Oak, Red Lake, and Goldengrove with pacts of friendship and mutual defense. Garland accomplished the same in the south, bringing Oldtown into his kingdom by wedding his daughter to Lymond (the Sea Lion) of House Hightower, whilst putting his own wives aside to marry Lord Lymond's daughter. 

(The World of Ice and Fire - The Reach: The Gardener King)

Beldon tells us that in 239 AC, Ellyn Reyne was accused of bedding Tytos Lannister, urging him to set aside his wife and marry her instead.

(The World of Ice and Fire - The Westerlands: House Lannister Under the Dragons)

Daemon found the Vale of Arryn boring (“In the Vale, the men fuck sheep,” he wrote. “You cannot fault them. Their sheep are prettier than their women.”), and soon developed a mislike of his lady wife, whom he called my bronze bitch, after the runic bronze armor worn by the lords of House Royce. Upon the accession of his brother to the Iron Throne, the prince petitioned to have his marriage set aside. Viserys denied the request but did allow Daemon to return to court".

(Fire and Blood: Heirs of the Dragon)

A fortnight later, Alyn Velaryon and Baela Targaryen were married in the sept on Dragonstone. The bride was sixteen, the groom nearly seventeen.

Several of the regents, outraged, urged Ser Tyland to appeal to the High Septon for an annulment, but the Hand’s own response was one of bemused resignation.

(Fire and Blood: The Hooded Hand)

The marriage took place without the leave, knowledge, or presence of King Aenys. When it became known, the two half-brothers quarreled bitterly. Nor was His Grace alone in his wroth. Manfred Hightower, father of Lady Ceryse, made protest to the king, demanding that Lady Alys be put aside.

Vexed and angry, King Aenys gave his brother a choice: put Alys Harroway aside and return to Lady Ceryse, or suffer five years of exile.

(Fire and Blood: The Sons of the Dragon)

Assuming the throne in 209 AC, Daeron’s second son, Aerys, had never imagined he would be king, and was singularly ill suited to sit the Iron Throne. Aerys was learned, in his way, though his interests were largely to do with dusty tomes concerned with ancient prophecy and the higher mysteries. Wed to Aelinor Penrose, he never showed an interest in getting her with child, and rumor had it that he had even failed to consummate the marriage. His small council, at their wits’ ends, hoped it was simply some dislike of her that moved him, and thus they urged him to put her aside to take another wife. But he would not hear of it.

(The World of Ice and Fire - The Targaryen Kings: Aerys I)

As can be seen, there have been marriages which have been put aside or which have been petitioned to be put aside, which tells us it's possible. It's also worth keeping in mind that no one hearing of Renly's scheme questions it.

We also know Renly doesn't care about precedents:

"Tell me, what right did my brother Robert ever have to the Iron Throne?" He did not wait for an answer. "Oh, there was talk of the blood ties between Baratheon and Targaryen, of weddings a hundred years past, of second sons and elder daughters. No one but the maesters care about any of it. Robert won the throne with his warhammer." 

(A Clash of Kings, Catelyn II)

It's very in-character for him to concoct a scheme without keeping in mind legalities.

Everyone else in the Small Council knew

Barristan didn't know.

Littlefinger has a spy network.

Varys also has a spy network.

Stannis only found out after 12 years of being in the capital, and it's also hinted that someone told him.

"He accuses my brother and sister of incest. I wonder how he came by that suspicion."

"Perhaps he read a book and looked at the color of a bastard's hair, as Ned Stark did, and Jon Arryn before him. Or perhaps someone whispered it in his ear." The eunuch's laugh was not his usual giggle, but deeper and more throaty.

"If you were not this whisperer, who was?"

"Some traitor, doubtless."

Varys tightened the cinch.

"Littlefinger?"

"I named no name."

(A Clash of Kings, Tyrion III)

Then Stannis went to Jon Arryn:

“Lord Stannis,” [Catelyn] asked, “if you knew the queen to be guilty of such monstrous crimes, why did you keep silent?”

“I did not keep silent,” Stannis declared. “I brought my suspicions to Jon Arryn.”

(A Clash of Kings, Catelyn III)

They investigated, Jon Arryn looking up genealogies in the book and he and Stannis looking up Robert's bastards.

However no one even hints at Renly knowing about the incest. Neither does anyone mention Renly investigating things in the capital.

Keep in mind that Renly was only around 20 in A Game of Thrones. It's safe to assume he became Master of Laws only when he was 16, so that's only around 4 years in King's Landing.

Why was Renly so scared of Cersei when Robert's dying? It makes no sense unless he knew about the incest!

That's patently untrue.

Consider what kind of person Cersei is. Cruel, and very overprotective of her children's rights.

She wanted Arya to lose a hand for striking Joffrey:

Ned Stark's daughter had run off after her wolf savaged Joff, you'll recall. My sister wanted the girl to lose a hand. The old penalty, for striking one of the blood royal. Robert told her she was cruel and mad. They fought for half the night . . . well, Cersei fought, and Robert drank. 

(A Feast for Crows, Jaime IV)

Let's think about another protective mother, Catelyn:

Catelyn said nothing. Let Ned work it out in his own mind; her voice would not be welcome now. Yet gladly would she have kissed the maester just then. His was the perfect solution. Benjen Stark was a Sworn Brother. Jon would be a son to him, the child he would never have. And in time the boy would take the oath as well. He would father no sons who might someday contest with Catelyn’s own grandchildren for Winterfell.

(A Game of Thrones, Catelyn I)

That morning he called it first. "I'm Lord of Winterfell!" he cried, as he had a hundred times before. Only this time, this time, Robb had answered, "You can't be Lord of Winterfell, you're bastard-born. My lady mother says you can't ever be the Lord of Winterfell."

(A Storm of Swords, Jon XII)

Catelyn wanted Jon gone because he or his children could threaten her children's claim to Winterfell. The same would hold true for Renly, being the uncle of Cersei's children, he could challenge their claim on the Iron Throne. He could even be made Regent to the children, which would ensure a bitter power struggle between him and Cersei. There's no need for Renly to know of the incest to fear Cersei.

The Lannisters are regarded to be treacherous:

"Not our men," Ned said patiently. "Lannister men. The lion of Lannister flew over the ramparts, not the crowned stag. And they had taken the city by treachery."

(A Game of Thrones, Eddard II)

He swore to trade her for his brother," she said numbly. "Sansa and Arya both. We would have them back if we returned his precious Jaime, he swore it before the whole court. How could he marry her, after saying that in sight of gods and men?"

"He's the Kingslayer's brother. Oathbreaking runs in their blood." Robb's fingers brushed the pommel of his sword.

(A Storm of Swords- Catelyn IV)

So more than enough reason for Renly to fear Cersei even without the incest.

In my opinion, Renly's suggestion to Ned supports the argument that Renly didn't know.

Lord Renly took a step back, taut as a bowstring. "Every moment you delay gives Cersei another moment to prepare. By the time Robert dies, it may be too late … for both of us.

(A Game of Thrones, Eddard X)

When Robert is dying, Renly asks Ned to sieze the Regency and take Cersei's children in hand. He is genuinely scared of Cersei siezing power.

So why then didn't he tell Ned about the incest?

Cersei would be executed, and her children as well. One can say: Because Ned wouldn't believe him. But in that very instance he was planning on storming the Red Keep and potentially dying. If he thought that risk was worth it, why not this one? One can say: Because Stannis would be king. But again, storming the Red Keep is much more dangerous than assassinating Stannis once he comes to the capital.

Alternatively, he could have told Robert on his deathbed, like Ned planned to do but which he could not make himself do.

So that's my argument for why Renly didn't know about the incest. Since it's so widely accepted as fact that he did know, I had to put it out there.

[conallblackbar]

closed starter for @jahaeraestermont

from a young age, conall had known he was bound for the sea. those early dreams would come to pass - now, as a man grown, he could call himself a captain, but his first steps on that path had not been upon the bandallon fleet. before the realms had split, it had been lord eldon estermont who had taught him his craft.

it had been years since he had seen lord estermont. when abigail had died, conall had withdrawn from all but those he held dearest. and now, the lord was dead, his son and heir with him, and there would be no opportunity to rectify the distance conall had deliberately put between them.

though most of his time with the estermonts had been aboard their ships, he remembered the lady of the house, the widow left behind, well enough that he recognised her by sight. conall cleared his throat as he approached, giving a slight bow of the head as he did so.

"lady estermont," he greeted her. "i'm not certain if you remember me - conall blackbar, of the reach? i sailed with lord eldon." he paused for a moment, clearing his throat. he did not know if she had heard the stories attached to his name, the ones that accused him of the murder of his wife. "i was sorry to hear of his passing. i hope you'll accept my condolences. i remember him to be a good man."

[omerflorent]

briannabrackens​:

who: @omerflorent where and when: the castle of riverrun, shortly after omer florent’s arrival to the riverlands to speak with the river king directly. in regards to plot events, the lyseni attack upon the river market has already happened.

she had been fifteen when discussions of being betrothed to lord omer florent of brightwater keep had begun: and in truth, she found him quite uncomely. arrogant, in the way that was not exactly funny. not to mention old, incredibly older - in reflection, brianna could understand that it was an attempt to try and lure the florents away from neutrality with a bracken dowry to fly the flag of green. they shared kin: the blackbars, being cousins to both house bracken and house florent.

whilst the betrothal did not go through, house bracken continued to keep up it’s close relationship with house florent within the kingdom of the reach.

afterall, they were all distant kin: that of the four leaf clover, and spirit. spoke the same tongue, understood one another: which was why she found her attitude increasingly irritated toward the high commander of the reach. they were not of close association, but she looked upon him and thought him a traitor to an extension of his own: not only were talks occurring with the blackwoods of all people, when the deal had fallen through due to the hand’s overall boyish nature, omer did not reach out to his extended kin to have them secure the ships.

to do the deal with the blackwoods, over those who were like him. as though their shared kin were not blackbars of bandallon. she hoped a horse kicked him; what else did he expect when associating with blackwoods? did he think bloody ben would not make a whore of his wife?

she knew ronan would wish to speak and settle the matter with him in the manner the two always did: she, however, believed he had no place in the riverlands and his request to see the river king should have been rejected. their people had died as a result of growing tensions, but there was no denying the support the ships would have provided: they had the funeral of children to attend of a council member. and where was the support of brethren?

and so the pair awaited ronan in tense silence, her hands remaining folded over her chest as she heard the sounds of her corgi clover pacing up and down, muddy paws upon the rug. she offered him no refreshments as he sat within the main audience chamber of the bracken apartments - she did not even offer him the chance to sit down. “he’ll be here soon.” there was a slight pause as she leaned over to move her dog off the rug.

“thank the gods.” she mumbled, loud enough for him to hear, in a tone that was clearly irritated.

.

Omer Florent didn’t expect to see the annoying sister of Ronan Bracken and yet she was there, as it was obvious she would be. He barely greeted her beyond the courtesy required when entering the home of another then he took the seat she didn’t offer. Unsurprising. Rude in the way she was known to be rude. There were talks over betrothal when she was, but a girl and his father expected him to marry her, and he found the idea to be ridiculous. He was a man grown, he'd seen men died and had arrested a few himself, he was skilled with sword, lance, and shield. Omer could break and man’s jaw in a single punch and his father wanted him to marry a girl of 5 and 10. When his father mentioned it, he remembered the way he laughed, he’d been calling them cousins his whole life and while cousin marriages weren’t strange in Westeros, he always thought they meant distant cousins. Then his father said they weren’t cousins, not really, something he still didn’t fully understand. It mattered not, he knew he wouldn’t marry her and was glad when he was able to put it to an end.

There would be some tension because of the conversation between his wife and the Blackwood cunt. Omer’s immediate word was to not deal with the Blackwoods at all, when his wife started her recounting, he shook his head and said no Blackwoods. She wisely, and maturely, suggested not getting involved in the politics of the Riverlands. It took him a single conversation with the copper headed twat for him to realize he would never work with the many of any from his house. This was the reason for meeting Ronan. He wanted to visit his cousin, one of his cousins, and speak over what he knew would be tense. Omer would take the time to explain blood feuds between the folk of the Reach.

Reachmen and Reach Folk were different. Omer explained it often. The folk of Brightwater had more in common with the River folk than they ever would with the Reachmen around them. And a blood feud, even if it were over potatoes, was a feud meant to last a 1,000 lifetimes and more. It’s never over until they were all dead. And their folk didn’t believe in moonteas or wasting ones seed on the thigh so they would never die out.

Omer glanced over at her out the corner of his eye, torn away from his thoughts as he was reminded of what started him on the inner tangent to begin with. Brianna Bracken, annoying. And it were a fact.

“I would be tankin’ da gods were ya out da room and somewheres else, aye?”

Allun Florent hated the Brightwater accent and he frowned whenever they were in Brightwater and Omer embraced every part of himself. He remembered how the people in Heart’s Home looked at him as if he were mad when spoke and he shared the same look. On the Arbor he certain stood out from the moment he opened his mouth. ‘Me names Omer Florent, I’m da Omer.’

“Close yet mout’, didn’t come ‘ere to ‘ear you. Aye? Who comes to see ya? No one.”

Omer should have waited in the hall. It were like dealing with Rhea when he was boy.