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makingthetwinsrelevant-blog · 5 years ago

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Why this year is different (although 5 game series are often skewed by sample size and who knows if it will even matter)

I’ve heard a lot of commentary about the Twins season. None of it is too optimistic about their prospects in the playoffs, and that’s understandable. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uLIt6xGSqek

That link is the game following the last playoff win in franchise history. It boils down to one mistake, leaving Joe Nathan to try for a third inning. Since then and including that game, the Twins are 0-13, with 10 of those losses coming against the Yankees, who the Twins will play this year for the Division series. But the Nathan mistake isn’t why we lost that series, nor is the Torii Hunter missed catch in ‘06 the reason we lost that series.

A lot of folks think we’re cursed, and that certainly would work as a narrative. A-Rod’s RBI double in 2004, or his home run in ’09 preceding Texiera’s walk-off. Curtis Granderson’s triple in ’10 comes to mind. But everything must come to an end- the curse of the Bambino did, as did the Cubs’, and the Twins aren’t going to lose every playoff game for the rest of their existence. It starts with one game, and I think the 2019 squad is built to do that. Here’s why:

2002 Twins 86-75

2003 Twins 85-77

2004 Twins 87-75

2006 Twins 93-69

2009 Twins 86-77

2010 Twins 92-70

2017 Twins 83-79

2019 Twins 98-64

These are the Pythagorean records for all Twins playoff teams since I have been conscious, and it really validates what I stress when I talk about the 2019 Twins, which is that this is the first team I’ve ever seen that is actually GOOD. Like good good. ALCS good. Which is why we can beat the Yankees this year, legitimately, or at least take it to game 5. Let me explain:

2002-2018: From Rick Reed to Addison Reed

The 2002 team had no fear. The playoffs were brand new and they won a weak AL Central with solid contributions from tons of guys- no mid 2010’s Detroit Tigers stars and scrubs BS here. 12 guys had more than 2 bWAR (a measure of overall value from baseballreference.com- 0 means totally replaceable, anything above 5 means a star player), including a career year for J.C Romero, who as a lefty pitched in 81 innings, allowing a total of 17 runs, with 3 home runs, 62 hits. bWAR for his season was 3.6. We also got nice above average seasons from Corey Koskie (How good could he have been not under the Twins slap hitting tutelage and minus his later concussion issues?), Bobby Kielty, Tony Fiore (91 good innings out of the pen), Kyle Lohse, Dustan Mohr; even Rick Reed was pretty good that year. The Giants and the Angels were better constructed teams, and it would have been a miracle for the Twins to go all the way that year. I couldn’t believe when they beat they A’s, and I couldn’t believe when Joe Mays shut the Angels down in Game 1. 8 innings, no runs and the Angels could not get a barrel to the ball to save their lives. We lost to the Angels because they were a better team (They won 99 games that year) but like the Astros in 2015, it was a good stepping stone for a solid core of guys.

The 2003 team was worse. There was no David Ortiz and only Brad Radke had an ERA+ (a measure of pitching that corrects for context, average score is 100) that was above average in our regular rotation. It was 101. Shannon Stewart and Johan Santana had to save the season and lift us over the White Sox* and Royals, who had a magical season 11 years before they meant to- they had prime Mike Sweeney and Carlos Beltran, but their #1 pitcher (as I recalled but had to confirm) was Darrell May, who had a legitimately good season but would never do THAT again.

*I’m pretty sure the White Sox were the better team that year. They had prime Bartolo, Mark Buehrle, early ok Jon Garland and that one of year of Esteban Loaiza where he almost won the CY Young (226.1 innings of 2.90 ERA ball with a k rate of 8.2, his career k rate was 5.9). They also had prime Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Lee, and this was one of the years in the oughts where Frank Thomas stayed together and hit 42 bombs.

But the Twins prevailed with Shannon Stewart magic plus solid years from Mientkiewicz, Koskie and Pierzynski, won Game 1 against the Yankees because we let Johan Santana free (for 4 innings, as that was the game where he didn’t eat enough potassium and cramped out of the game), and then got swept the rest of the way, getting shut down by Andy Pettite Roger Clemens and David Wells. It was kind of an accidental bullpen game in game 1, but more on that later.

The ‘04 Twins went back to being pitching dominant, with the first year of full season Johan (and his best year) and Joe Nathan joining the fold along with lights out Juan Rincon (watch him strike out Jorge Posada in the 8th in game 2). Radke was great, and Carlos Silva soaked up the rest. If Joe Mauer hadn’t gotten hurt that team could have been something, because the lineup was rough and relied a lot on career year Lew Ford (more on that later). Doug Mientkiewicz, Jacque Jones, Christian Guzman and Henry Blanco all struggled to various degrees. Morneau provided a spark in the second half, taking over for Mientkiewicz at the trade deadline and hitting 19 bombs.

As I inferred, I put myself through watching game 2 of the ALDS against the Yankees (up 1-0) recently and everything that I remembered from it came rushing back: Koskie’s double against Rivera that would have scored 2 but bounced into the stands, instead tying the game at 5. Then Hunter’s big home run in the 12th, and Nathan to all the world looking like he was out of gas in his third inning of work in the 12th - with 1 out he walked Miguel Cairo as well as Jeter to bring up A-Rod. What I didn’t remember was that Nathan threw a decent slider off the plate down and away, and A-Rod showed why he was one of the top 5 hitters of his generation and almost hit it out, poking a ground rule double (were it a regular double it would have been a walk off) to tie the game. After intentionally walking Sheffield, J.C Romero got Hideki Matsui on a soft fly out to Jones in right, and a good throw would have gotten Jeter. That didn’t happen, and one Carlos Silva start and a Rincon implosion later the Twins were done. The Twins hit well in the series after not doing that all season, but two decisions cost them: leaving Nathan in obviously, and giving Carlos Silva (and Kyle Lohse) a start. The lineup had gotten hot, but archaic ideas about how to use pitching in the playoffs cost them big- although those ideas wouldn’t truly be challenged until Craig Counsell took the Dodgers to 7 games in 2018.

I was jazzed about ’06. They had a good power and speed mix (On base percentages of Bartlett, Castillo and Punto: .367, .358, .352) with Morneau and Mauer both breaking out to post over 10 bWAR between them, Santana winning another Cy Young, and Francisco Liriano having his Greek tragedy. The bullpen was great, with Nathan having arguably his best year, Dennys Reyes giving up 5 runs the whole year and Rincon, Pat Neshek and Crain pitching in solidly.

But Barry Zito outdueled Santana in game 1, Mark Kotsay hit his inside the park home run on the ball Torii dove for but couldn’t keep in front in game 2 (right after we had tied the game with back to back jacks from Cuddyer and Morneau). And that was all the starting pitching we had- with Liriano done, and Boof Bonser pitching out of his mind in game 2, we had can’t-brush-his-teeth torn rotator cuff Brad Radke trying to gut his way through and running out of guts. And cartilage.

Maybe Craig Counsell or Kevin Cash could have made it work, but in 2006 there just wasn’t enough pitching.

In ’09 we had MVP Joe Mauer, Jason Kubel’s best year and Denard Span’s emergence. But the pitching relied a lot on Nick Blackburn and the mad rush to beat the Tigers in game 163 left us with Brian Duensing in game 1 against the Yankees. Brian Duensing was a nice pitcher that year, but he couldn’t handle that assignment. Game 2 was the Phil Cuzzi calling a fair ball foul game, the most errant umpiring call I know of next to the Armando Gallaraga perfect game disaster. Mauer singled anyway to start the 11th. So did Kubel and Cuddyer. Bases loaded, no outs, Delmon Young at the plate- he scaldes a line drive to Texiera at first for a loud out. Carlos Gomez grounds into a fielders choice at home, and Brendan Harris pops out. Kinda deserved that walkoff.

Who are you pitching with this team in a 7 game series anyway? And depth was an issue as well, otherwise Harris wouldn’t have come in for MATT TOLBERT, Gomez wouldn’t have hit with his .623 season OPS, and nor would Delmon with his .733. Blackburn and Pavano combined to go 12 innings, allowing 3 total runs between them in games 2 and 3, so even with those bonuses the fact that the team couldn’t even get to 4 games says a lot.

2010 could have been something, with a good offense led by Mauer and Thome, the one year Delmon Young was good, the year we had J.J Hardy and Orlando Hudson and Liriano had 200 k’s. But Morneau got his concussion, Nathan had Tommy John surgery, Kubel Cuddyer and Span all had bad years and it came down to Curtis Granderson hitting a clutch triple off of a cruising Liriano (The Twins led 3-0 going into the bottom of the 6th). Then the Twins realized that as nice as their seasons were, Carl Pavano and Duensing weren’t pitchers you rely on in the postseason- they pitched to contact and if their command wasn’t perfect they would get exposed. Guess what happened.

In 2017 the team wasn’t good. And they wouldn’t have made the playoffs if the Orioles, Angels and Royals didn’t all collapse while the Twins played .500 ball in September. Their starting pitching was average, with a great Ervin Santana season and a good Berrios one. But unlike the other teams on this list, the bullpen was suspect, with a not-quite-figured-out Ryan Pressly, sinker throwing Tyler Duffey and a Matt Belisle on the right side with a non-slider throwing Taylor Rogers on the left. Alan Busenitz and Trevor Hildenberger had career years but weren’t helpful in the Wild Card game, or really ever again.

The offense was the best of all the teams so far in a bit of foreshadowing, scoring 815 runs and featuring the last good Brian Dozier season, the start of Jorge Polanco busting out, and Joe Mauer having one last .300 season. Miguel Sano looked like a star for 3 months, then busted his shin and got a titanium rod inserted into it because he doesn’t care about baseball or something. Byron Buxton even had his first sustained period of excellence in the second half (and played 140 games!)

Relying on the back end of the rotation

Those are the 7 playoff teams of the millennium. And here are the Game 3 starters for each ALDS team starting with ’02:

Rick Reed

Kyle Lohse

Carlos Silva

Zombie Brad Radke

Carl Pavano

Brian Duensing

That group had a combined record of 0-6. This year the hope is that the new regime is smart enough to know that, even though they have 2 starters in Kyle Gibson and Martin Perez who are comparable to that group, and who tried hard and won double digit games, their best bet is to bullpen that game.

One aspect of the playoffs that teams are getting wise to but which have killed Clayton Kershaw in the past, is the inclination to “trust your guys” and “dance with the girl who you brought” or some other idiom about sticking with a certain pitcher out of loyalty or sense of obligation. Carlos Silva had a good ’04 season; of course Gardy would want to give him a playoff start. His results were quite a bit better than Kyle Gibson’s 2019.

But hitters hit .310/.342/.462 against Silva that year. You’re trusting your season to him continuing to get lucky. He gave up 10 hits and the series swung 2-1 to the Yankees.

Results aren’t predictive

What we have in 2019 is the possibility that the Twins brass has learned from the mistakes of the past. You saw it in 2017 when they traded our closer, Brandon Kintzler, at the trade deadline. They knew that despite what the results showed, the team wasn’t good. Even though they got hot and made the WC game, they knew it wasn’t sustainable yet, and didn’t go crazy on free agents or win-now trades.

What the Levine Falvey regime did was take an objective view of their assets (is Mike Morin’s success sutainable? No? Ok then I won’t pitch him in the 7th inning of a playoff game. In fact, I’ll let him be the Phillies problem). They also threw all the “Twins way” shit out the window. No more getting benched for not going the other way, or for trying to hit a home run. And I know that point of view is very much a feeling and not really tangible- something inferred from David Ortiz’s comments years ago, a general sense watching games announced by Dick Bremer and Bert Blyleven, that power is nice but luxurious, as though wanting it too badly should be a sin. And then you have Joe Mauer, who embodied every aspect of that feeling- a guy who looked for his whole career like he could hit home runs, but didn’t because he wasn’t flashy, he didn��t want to draw attention to himself and must have believed that slapping singles and doubles to left field would be a more productive route in the end.

Here’s the big secret about Joe Mauer: As talented as he was- as a catcher, in his general coordination, in his eye at the plate, and his ability to slap an RBI single in some key spots for 14 years, he was kind of a moron. Seemed like he was a nice guy. But he has never in his life said anything remotely close to insightful and I truly believe that he earnestly and wrongly thought he could best serve his team by staying behind the ball and slapping it to left field. He was probably told that from a young age.

He mistook an illusion for a reality, and so did the Twins for 51 years. Every color guy on every team’s broadcast will talk about the importance of the fundamentals, getting the guy over, laying down a good bunt and going the other way. They will talk up players who do that for eternity, and constantly lament how the game isn’t played that way anymore. To every team trying to win, this is taken with a big fucking grain of Morton brand industrial sidewalk salt. They want 2-3 guys like that. To the Twins it was religion. They wanted 12-15 guys like that. They wanted Matt Tolbert, Nick Punto, Denny Hocking and Juan Castro. The did NOT want J.J Hardy or David Ortiz.

This has changed, hopefully, and with Mauer gone, it may have rinsed away completely. We set the freaking home run record. Mitch Garver openly admits he is trying to hit home runs. Max Kepler found out his power is to the pull side. Jorge Polanco found out he could take a rip early in the count. It’s all new; it’s all different. And I’m not saying the Twins will beat the Yankees in the first round because of this philosophy shift. What I am saying is that the 2019 Twins are NOT:

A Cinderella team getting their feet wet around 12 slightly above average guys (2002)

A decent offense with no pitching plus Shannon Stewart (2003)

A great pitching staff 1-2 with an average offense that gave starts to Carlos Silva and Kyle Lohse in the playoffs (2004)

A team with Boof Bonser as its #2 (2006)

A team that relied heavily on Blackburn, Pavano and Duensing in playoff games (2009 and 2010)

A lucky team with no bullpen and 1.5 starters (2017)

So maybe they will.

What’s different now

The best team out of the prior playoff teams is probably the ’04 team, whose struggling offense didn’t struggle in the playoffs. And with Santana being the best and Radke being HIS best, a modern manager could have used their decent bullpen to build something.

Now imagine the ’04 team, except their offense is much better. MUCH better. And despite having only two effective starters, can bullpen their way to wins with a pen that goes 6-7 deep. And unlike a Tony Fiore or a Ron Mahay, or a Matt Capps or Alex Burnett, this bullpen does stuff you can’t fake- stuff you can’t luck your way into.

Opponents are hitting .157/.223/.245 against Tyler Duffey in the second half.

They’re hitting .159/.220/.354 against Trevor May

(Both those guys were good in the first half, too)

Taylor Rogers gave up a .225/.273/.353 line for the year

To my count there are 9 relievers that can be counted on in different spots- Rogers, Duffey, May, Romo, Littell, Stashak, Dobnak, Graterol and Smeltzer (by different spots I mean that Rocco won’t throw Smeltzer into the 8th inning of a tie game to face Aaron Judge).

That depth can be leveraged to overcome the loss of Michael Pineda, and the fact that Berrios and Odorizzi are no locks to be effective. Stashak and Smeltzer can both give you 3 innings of effective mop-up duty that keep games close, and allows the offense to come back by exploiting New York’s middling starting pitching, and mercurial late inning relief (Namely Britton, Green and Ottavino).

How to cope when Lew Ford leads your team in total bases

Almost as importantly, the offense isn’t going to need guys who had career years to continue thriving in the post when they were clearly playing above their true talent level. Lew Ford carried the ’04 team at times, but he was still Lew Ford, and he showed it against the Yankees and for the rest of his career. Same with Nick Punto in ‘06. Nelson Cruz is a force who scares the Royals as much as the Yankees.

Mitch Garver didn’t hot streak his way into a 1000 OPS; he’s kept it above .919 since April 9th. Check his game log.

These guys are actually good. So is Max Kepler, who I hope is ok. You don’t hit 36 bombs with reverse platoon splits by accident.

Marwin Gonzalez isn’t a great hitter but I trust he’ll take a good at bat when we need him too. You’ll appreciate that when you watch rookie Jason Kubel swing at two straight pitches at his eyes against Rivera in ’04.

Eddie Rosario is the wild card, and teams NEED* a wild card:

*Delmon Young on the Tigers, Yasiel Puig on the Dodgers, Alfonso Soriano on the Yankees, Eric Byrnes on the Diamondbacks. Rafael Devers for the Red Sox last year. That’s Rosario. Everyone needs an underachiever from the regular season to come up in the post.

Rosario, Polanco, Garver, Cruz, Sano and Kepler could all be game changing offensive players in a short series, which is not a quantity we’ve seen since Morneau went down with his concussion in ’10.

There’s no curse, the Yankees just exploited an obvious weakness of the Twins 4.5 separate times. That weaknesses boiled down to smoke and mirrors results that translated to good regular season stats, which led to Terry Ryan and Gardy trusting those results to be predictive. The 2019 team wasn’t built that way, otherwise Brandon Kintzler might still be part of it. The bullpen will have to perform for a lot of innings, the lineup will have to score, and one of Berrios and Odorizzi will have to perform to or above his talent level. As likely as it has ever been, this team could, say it with me here- take it to a game 5.

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noticiaspuchuncavi-blog · 8 years ago

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