#DUNE NOT IN ADAPTED SCREENPLAY?!?

[snazzycicada]

Me everyday all the way through the oscars knowing Dune only has 5 nominations

[evild3ad]

yep 😬

[regulus-lantsov]

Oh my god I just love how everyone accepted that Denis Villeneuve is the standart for adaptation T°T

[fuckyeahisawthat]

Re-skimmed through a bunch of Dune Messiah last night because why not and now I am having thoughts:

The thing that sticks with me most is the tone. It's melancholy, it's eerie, it's unsettled and weird. Cannot think of a more pitch-perfect director for it than Denis Villeneuve. He's gonna nail it.

There is...not that much...actual story? Denis has referred to it in interviews as "a small book" and I'm like my guy it is 350 pages. But there are actually not that many plot beats. It's just that every. single. scene. is WILDLY overwritten. The real challenge of adapting Dune is not the giant worms or the dense complicated worldbuilding or the fact that actors have to say the name "Duncan Idaho" repeatedly with a straight face. It's that there are pages and pages and PAGES of internal monologue that have to be externalized somehow for film.

After a re-skim my gut instinct for "how much story goes in a feature film" is that if you just wrote out the dialogue and action that happens in every scene in the book in screenplay format you'd end up with...maybe about an hour of material? Which is great, actually, because it means there is room to add stuff. Like a whole new independent plotline for Chani if they decide to do that.

It may seem insane to add things to an adaptation of what's notoriously one of the wordiest series in classic sci-fi but it's worth remembering that they added quite a bit to Dune Part Two. Most of the first hour of the movie--almost everything before the worm ride except for Jessica drinking the Water of Life--is stuff that isn't in the book. And it's the best part of the movie essential to making the movie work as well as it does. Yes, they also cut elements from both parts (the dinner scene, the whole plotline where Gurney thinks Jessica is a Harkonnen spy, Thufir Hawat's fate, Leto II the Elder, murder toddler Alia) but I understand why each of those elements was cut or changed in the service of cinematic storytelling.

There's an interview (can't remember which one) with Jon Spaihts, the other co-writer of the scripts along with Denis, where he talks about how Dune is like a stage play, with so many of what would be the big action set pieces happening off-page. I kept thinking about that comparison while reviewing Dune Messiah because in addition to the scenes that do exist being wordy and internal as fuck, an absolutely insane list of major events/reveals/emotionally significant moments happen off-page. The list of things that we don't actually see in the main action of the story, that we're only told about after they happen, includes:

Chani finding out Irulan has been secretly dosing her with birth control for YEARS

People trying to capture a sandworm and take it off planet

Chani and Paul finding out Chani is pregnant after 12 years of trying to conceive

Paul flying an ornithopter carrying his extremely-about-to-go-into-labor partner while blind

CHANI DYING (first time reading I did NOT know this was coming and damn near threw my Kindle across the room at the way the information was delivered)

Alia executing a bunch of people including a Bene Gesserit Reverend Mother

Paul walking into the desert at the end

You could add all these moments into a scene-for-scene film adaptation of the book and probably still have room to add more material.

The other thing that jumps out is that Paul doesn't really...govern...much. Like there's this whole subgenre of post-Dune/Dune Messiah-era fic that's just some combination of Paul, Chani, Irulan and sometimes Feyd traipsing around the palace having feelings while vague politics happens in the background, but I forgot that Dune Messiah is actually kinda like that??

There is a whole thread of Paul feeling kind of abstractly bad about being Space Hitler but he does not, in fact, actually do anything about it. And like yes both bureaucracies and religious movements can grow to have a life of their own that seems beyond the control of any one person. But also my dude you are the Emperor of the Known Universe. Someone is signing those space checks for the Endless War budget. You are not powerless here.

The one thing that really, clearly drives Paul to actively do things in the plot is not feeling guilty about having unleashed catastrophic religious war on the universe. It is protecting his family. Chani, Alia, his unborn children, and you could probably throw in Duncan by the end. That is what motivates him to act at key moments, and to want to hold on to power. And hey, y'know, if I'd experienced almost everyone I'd ever known getting murdered in a single night, I would probably get a bit intense about that too! It makes sense from a character point of view!

I'm very curious to see how these threads interweave with each other in the film, because the Villeneuve films put a lot of emphasis on Paul's agency and the fact that he may be constrained by shitty circumstances thousands of years in the making, but he still makes choices within that context. I can't see the narrative allowing film!Paul to get away with the same Poor Little Dictator routine as in the book. There are a few ways they could play this but I think the most interesting one is kinda the way they started going at the end of Part Two. Which is that as soon as you start reaching for that kind of power, then power becomes its own end and you will end up doing increasingly horrific things to maintain it. I think it would be quite interesting if the film shows us Paul not just being like "woe is me" but actively choosing to make the world worse because his trauma-driven fear of losing the people he loves makes him cling ever more desperately to power for its own sake.

If they went this route I think it would make Paul's decision at the end hit even harder. FWIW I actually really like Paul walking off into the desert at the end of the book. I think it brings things full circle with his relationship to the Fremen and creates this beautiful arc going back to the duel with Jamis. He first won a place among the Fremen through respecting their customs even though he really did not want to fight and kill someone he had no beef with. And by respecting the Fremen custom of the blind walking off into the desert, he proves himself to be fully Fremen and protects his children not by making them heirs to the throne but by making them Fremen.

And yeah, to a modern audience here on Earth it can look like "Paul conveniently fucks off and doesn't have to raise his newly-motherless children." And we can have a whole discussion about the unexamined ableism of the idea of someone who's gone blind voluntarily choosing death so as to "not be a burden" on their community. But neither of those readings is really the point here. Within the logic of Fremen cultural values, where the survival of the group as a whole is more important than the life of any one individual ("your water belongs to the tribe" etc.) Paul's choice is a willing and intentional self-sacrifice (see also: fedaykin) that wins him huge respect. There's a line in the book about Paul that's like "He would be one of them forever now" and damn if that didn't give me shivers. Like!! The political-symbolic implications!!! Which maybe I'm particularly attuned to because I just wrote a whole fic about what does it mean for an outsider to become Fremen but hmm something something Paul's final* act not being an exercise of Imperial power but an expression of kinship with an oppressed group and that being the thing that's needed to keep his family safe even if he is not physically present with them...IT IS RICH SYMBOLIC TERRITORY.

(*Yes yes I know about events in the next book. Shush.)

This kind of stuff is why I tend to think Chani may start out in a very different place in the story but the end will still be pretty close to what's in the book. It's too thematically powerful and tragic to go any other way.

But also...if they change things around enough that she is still alive at the end of the movie...I won't be sad about it.

[lesterwillington]

We Need a Lovecraft Musical (or play, I would not mind a play)

I love eldritch horror and weird fiction and I love musicals so I might sound biased, but I need this to happen. Technically, there are a few that exist, but I can find very little detail about them. So, what I'm asking the universe for is some sort of Lovecraft stage musical adaptation (preferably something from the Cthulhu Mythos) that recieves a major professional production somewhere in the world (like off-west end or off-broadway or chicago or something, I would love regular west end and regular broadway but I am trying to manage expectations here, kinda). Also, we just need more mainstream horror theater stuff in general. There isn't much of it, and what does exist mostly have been financial and critical failures. Now, you may be asking, "aren't Lovecraft's works famously unadaptable? why not just leave them as short stories and novels? also he was a pretty bad dude should we even be adapting his work at all?", and to that I say: 1. HA, if you really think that, you are a COWARD, a FOOL, and a SCOUNDREL! People thought Dune was unadaptable and now it is a critically acclaimed franchise with at least 2 movies as well as an upcoming tv show and a third movie in development. So, people that say things like that are dumb. Plus, that's mostly in reference to film adaptations anyway, which I can understand for Lovecraft's works. He mostly relies on the audience's imagination for the horror, he tries to get them to fear something they can barely begin to understand. It's hard to translate that into film because film is inherently a visual medium (mostly). However, theater almost always relies on the audience visualizing more than what is really on stage, so I think it fits Lovecraft's works perfectly, especially because of how short most of them are. You can really take your time to flesh out the world and characters if you wanted to. Or just do like, a one-act thing. That woks too. 2. I understand leaving them as their original works, but I think the theatrical experience can elevate the experience of the written works or at least get the audience to see them in a new light. I think an ideal theatrical adaptation would leave the audience extremely unsettled, but wanting more. And they can get more by reading Lovecraft. So, I don't think it's too much of a problem. 3. I'm terribly sorry but like 95% of old, white guy authors were bad people and I think it's reasonable to be able enjoy and appreciate what they made while also condemning who they were. Plus, it's not like Lovecraft or his estate is making any money off this because his works are public domain babyyyy. But yes I need this to happen desperately and I'm afraid it won't. I'm heavily considering trying to make something myself (because the works are public domain and I am a writer), but I have a lot on my plate right now (including an In Trousers screenplay that I have mentioned in a post or two) so I have no idea when I'd be able to really work on it and try to fully realize it. Plus, I have zero connections in the theater world so getting a major production for it would be extremely hard. I still think it's cool, though. Let me know what you guys think. Is it possible? Or are his works better left as they are?

[maxdibert]

The most annoying thing about HOTD is that the book versions of Alicent and Rhaenyra are not at all the show’s clueless peace loving ladies constantly horrified at the violence of the men around them. Book Alicent knows from the second she gives birth to a son that she either puts him on the throne or her whole family dies, and schemes accordingly. Book Rhaenyra has absolutely zero intention of doing the sensible thing and backing down on her right to rule in order to avoid dragon civil war. Soon enough they’re all-in on inflicting maximum harm to each other for revenge. The show has neutered them both to the point of uselessness. Alicent should’ve been an iconic as Cersei!

It’s such a shame how female characters are treated in that franchise when it comes to TV adaptations. And it surprises me because HBO has other incredible series with amazing female characters. Look at Dune: The Sisterhood Prophecy or The Penguin, for example. Sofia Falcone was a fantastic discovery—her character was so well-developed, and at no point was she reduced to being pathologized or judged by the narrative as the stereotypical "woman who can’t control her emotions/manage her anger." It was a joy to see her in every episode. HBO is also responsible for adapting My Brilliant Friend, based on the Italian series of novels whose protagonists might be two of the most intense, complex, and tumultuous female characters I’ve ever read about. It’s literally one of my favorite sagas and a stunning portrayal of the social, political, cultural, psychological, sexual, and emotional violence women endure. A masterpiece, honestly. And the adaptation? Absolutely brilliant. I’ve genuinely cried over how incredibly well-made it is. Even though it can’t cover everything the books delve into, the screenplay perfectly captures the essence of every significant moment. It’s a work of art in its own right.

I don’t know if it’s something tied to the executive producers, but I haven’t read House of the Dragon yet, although I have read A Song of Ice and Fire. And literally all the women lose so much in their adaptation to the screen. Especially in the later seasons—it’s an absolute disaster in terms of how they handle the most important female characters. Apart from Sansa, every other character spirals downhill compared to their book versions.

It fascinates me that Martin writes such complex, morally gray female characters and gives the screenwriters so much to work with, yet they completely drop the ball. It’s honestly infuriating.

[rebeccalouisaferguson]

Rebecca Ferguson has been cast in Neal Street Productions, Elysian Film Group and Ashland Hill Media Finance’s adaptation of Enid Blyton‘s “The Magic Faraway Tree.”

The film, based on Blyton’s beloved “The Faraway Tree” series, follows the Thompson family as they move to the English countryside and discover a magical tree. The fantastical tree’s residents transport visitors to distant lands, setting the stage for a series of whimsical adventures. Ferguson will play Dame Snap, the story’s terrifying headmistress character. The screenplay is by Simon Farnaby (“Wonka,” “Paddington 2”).

The “Dune” and “Mission: Impossible” actor joins previously announced cast members Andrew Garfield and Claire Foy in the fantasy adventure film. The cast also includes Nicola Coughlan, Nonso Anozie, Jessica Gunning, Dustin Demri Jones, Mark Heap, Oliver Chris, Lenny Henry, Simon Russell Beale, Michael Palin, Jennifer Saunders, Hiran Abeysekera and Pippa Bennett-Warner. Newcomers Delilah Bennett-Cardy, Billie Gadsdon and Phoenix Laroche play the Thompson children.

Ferguson’s 2024 slate includes roles in the “Peaky Blinders” movie opposite Cillian Murphy, “Mercy” with Chris Pratt, and Kathryn Bigelow’s upcoming feature. The second season of her Apple series “Silo,” in which she stars and produces, is set to premiere on Nov. 15.

Director Ben Gregor said: “Rebecca is a towering screen presence, one of the finest actors of her generation, and will be an electrifying addition to our movie.”

[vadergf]

My oscar favourites (based on the ones I've watched / based on my liking of it and not oscar favs)

Best picture: Conclave, Dune 2, Dìdi, A Real Pain

Best actor: Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Timothee Chalamet (I'd say for Dune 2 but he's more likely to get it for A Complete Unknown, which i haven't seen)

Best actress: Demi Moore (The Substance)

Best director: Denis Villeneuve (Dune 2)

Best supporting actor: Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Yuri Borisov (Anora), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing)

Best supporting actress: Zoe Saldana (Emilia Perez), Joan Chen (Dìdi)

Best screenplay: A Real Pain, Challengers

Best adapted screenplay: Conclave

Best score: Challengers

[whileiamdying]

David Lynch, Twin Peaks Creator and Mulholland Drive Director, Dies at 78: 'There's a Big Hole in the World'

The director was a four-time Oscar nominee By Victoria Edel Published on January 16, 2025 @ 01:28PM EST

David Lynch in 1984. PHOTO: DE LAURENTIIS ENTERTAINMENT GROUP/RGR COLLECTION/ALAMY

David Lynch has died at the age of 78, his family announced on Thursday, Jan. 16.

"It is with deep regret that we, his family, announce the passing of the man and the artist, David Lynch.  We would appreciate some privacy at this time," read a message on Facebook. "There’s a big hole in the world now that he’s no longer with us. But, as he would say, 'Keep your eye on the donut and not on the hole.' "

"It’s a beautiful day with golden sunshine and blue skies all the way," they added.

Lynch, who would have turned 79 this Monday, Jan. 20, was best known for creating the 1990 TV series Twin Peaks. The show spawned a 1992 feature film, Twin Peaks: Fire Walk with Me, and a 2017 revival season. A four-time Oscar nominee, he also directed films including The Elephant Man, Blue Velvet and Mulholland Drive. He was known for his distinctive style that became described as “Lynchian.”

Lynch was born in Missoula, Mont., in 1946 and grew up in Spokane, Wash., and Boise, Idaho. His father was a forest research scientist, and Lynch spent much of his childhood outside, exploring. Those same mysterious Pacific Northwest woods would eventually inspire Twin Peaks.

When he was a teenager, the family moved to Alexandria, Va. He had "a kind of happy persona” there, he told PEOPLE in 1990, but soon learned “all the thrilling things happened just after school or between classes. It added up to some sort of pitiful joke — so constricting it would drive you nuts. It inspired me to try to break rules. Behind it all, I was getting it together to be a painter.”

David Lynch in 1984. KOBAL/SHUTTERSTOCK

Lynch went to Philadelphia to study art at the Pennsylvania Academy of the Fine Arts, and there he began experimenting with film and animation. "I loved Philadelphia," he said in 1990. "The most corrupt, fear-ridden city I've ever seen. It's one of my major film influences."

In 1975, he released The Grandmother, a 35-minute blent of live-action and animation about a lonely boy whose dead grandmother comes back to life. It earned him a spot in the American Film Institute's Center for Advanced Film Studies in L.A. He spent the next five years working on his feature debut, 1977’s Eraserhead. To support himself, he held a series of odd jobs, including a paper route.

"$9.80 a night was not a thrilling rate, so I was pretty depressed," he said in 1990. "But I worked it to where I was shooting the route in one hour, almost to the second — a totally efficient hour. You learn to fold, bag and drive at the same time."

"I got an awful lot of pressure to abandon Eraserhead and do something worthwhile," he added. "I just couldn't. It was frustrating, but also beautiful." Eraserhead had a small opening, but gained interest as a midnight movie and ultimately became a cult favorite. One fan was Mel Brooks, who hired Lynch to create a film about Joseph Merrick. That movie, 1980’s The Elephant Man was a hit and garnered eight Oscar nominations, including best director and best adapted screenplay for Lynch.

David Lynch (right) directing Dean Stockwell and Francesca Annis on the set of 'Dune'. NANCY MORAN/SYGMA VIA GETTY 

Next he directed an adaptation of Dune, released in 1984. It received mostly negative reviews upon it release, though it went on to be a cult favorite. “It was a heartache for me. It was a failure, and I didn’t have final cut,” he told The Hollywood Reporter in 2020. “I’ve told this story a billion times. It’s not the film I wanted to make. I like certain parts of it very much — but it was a total failure for me."

He released Blue Velvet, starring Isabella Rossellini, in 1986. The erotic thriller was criticized by some for being too violent, but he received a second Oscar nomination for best director. "When people first meet David, they expect him to be neurotic and crazy and sick, but he's not," Rossellini, who was romantically involved with Lynch at the time, told PEOPLE in 1990. “It's just that he looks at life in a different way.” He said of his creative inclinations, “I'm in love with ideas, and I'm out there trying to catch them.”

His next major film was 1990's Wild at Heart, starring Nicolas Cage and Laura Dern, who had also appeared in Blue Velvet. She told PEOPLE in 1990, “David's greatest gift is that he sees making a movie like a trip to Disneyland." Lynch described Wild at Heart as a “violent comedy, a love story in a twisted world.” He explained, “Wild at Heart goes to extremes — it's not a film for everybody. But as shocking as some things in it are, they're based on the truth of human nature, and there's a lot of humor and love wrapped up in that.”

Kyle MacLachlan (left) and David Lynch on the set of 'Blue Velvet' in 1986. EVERETT/SHUTTERSTOCK

Twin Peaks also premiered that same year. "Working at this speed is unusually intense, but I really like it," the director told PEOPLE. “It gets kind of crazy.” The mystery TV series reunited him with Dune and Blue Velvet star Kyle MacLachlan. 

Set in the titular, fictional Washington town, Twin Peaks explored the mystery of who killed Laura Palmer (Sheryl Lee), though the surreal series came to mean so much more to fans. Not that Lynch was forthcoming about any of the ideas he intentionally incorporated into his work. "I never talk about themes," he said in 1990. "No way. A film should stand on its own. People talk way too much about a film up front, and that diminishes it."

MacLachlan praised Lynch as “a sound, mood and rhythm director. David hasn't forgotten the images, fears and desires you have when you're 10 or 18 or 25. They're so pure, these images, that they have a lot of impact.”

David Lynch in 1986. BONNIE SCHIFFMAN/GETTY

"I like things that go into hidden, mysterious places, places I want to explore that are very disturbing," Lynch said. "In that disturbing thing, there is sometimes tremendous poetry and truth." The combination of violence, surrealism, mysticism and blue-collar life would come to define the “Lynchian” aesthetic.

Twin Peaks aired for two seasons on ABC. It was an instant success when it premiered; PEOPLE included Laura Palmer on it annual list of most interesting people at the end of 1990. But the second season was derailed when ABC executive Bob Iger made Lynch reveal in the premiere who had killed Palmer, a mystery the director had wanted to save for the end of the series. Ratings declined, Lynch was unhappy, and the show was canceled.

In 1992, Lynch visited the story again in the prequel film Twin Peaks: Fire Walk with Me. And he returned for a third season of the series, which aired on Showtime, in 2017. “I called all the regulars — or most everyone — and I had a chat,” Lynch told Deadline in 2018 about bringing the cast back together. “These people are like family, so it was so beautiful calling them and talking to them again and getting together like for a family reunion.” He guessed that 99 percent of the surviving cast was happy to return. Dern also joined the show for the third season. 

Lynch felt season three was more comparable in quality to the first than the second, which he did not like. He received nine Emmy nominations for his work on Twin Peaks.

David Lynch in 2015. GLENN HUNT/GETTY

Lynch directed four more films: 1997’s Lost Highway, 1999’s The Straight Story, 2001’s Mulholland Drive and 2006’s Inland Empire. He received his third Oscar nomination for best director (and fourth overall) for helming Mulholland Drive, which followed an aspiring actress in Los Angeles played by Naomi Watts. It was originally conceived as a TV show.

“It was a closed-ended pilot, and then the ideas came to make it into a feature,” he told Interview in 2012. “I was meditating, and all these ideas just flowed in, in one meditation — all the ideas to finish that into a feature.” In 2019, Lynch received an honorary Oscar for his contributions to film.

Lynch never gave up his early love of painting and continued to create visual art throughout his life. In 1994, he published Images, a book that featured painting, photographs and images from his films. He was also involved in several music projects, including working on the scores of several of his films.

In 2006, he published a book, Catching the Big Fish: Meditation, Consciousness, and Creativity, about transcendental meditation, and in 2018, he published Room to Dream, which was a hybrid of memoir and biography. He directed music videos for artists like Moby, Nine Inch Nails and Donovan, as well as many commercials. He also portrayed director John Ford in Steven Spielberg's 2022 film The Fabelmans.

David Lynch receiving his honorary Oscar in 2019. MICHAEL BUCKNER/VARIETY/PENSKE MEDIA VIA GETTY

Lynch was married to first wife Peggy from 1967 to 1974. They shared daughter Jennifer, who also became a director. Jennifer told PEOPLE in 1990, “He was not your normal dad, but he's been the best dad he could be, and we've had a blast.”

From 1977 to 1987, he was married to Mary Fisk. They shared son Austin. From 2006 to 2007, he was married to Mary Sweeney, with whom he shared son Riley. In 2009, he married Emily Stofle, who appeared in Inland Empire and the third season of Twin Peaks. They shared daughter Lula Boginia. Stofle filed for divorce in 2023.

Looking back on his one-of-a-kind career, Lynch was mostly content. “Well, I'm sort of proud of everything except Dune,” he said in a 2020 YouTube video. "I’ve liked so much working in different mediums. It’s not a thing about pride, it’s more like the enjoyment of the doing, enjoyment of the work."

He added, "I’ve just enjoyed working in all these different mediums, and I feel, again, really lucky to have been able to enjoy those things and be able to live."

[dweemeister]

Reactions to the 97th Academy Awards nominations

Well, I've taken more than a full day to process most things. Forgot to post this last evening, so this is a bit delayed. But here goes nothing:

Full disclosure: I have seen 7/10 Best Picture nominees. Emilia Pérez I have procrastinated on because I unfortunately have not been able to drown out all the discourse surrounding it. Nickel Boys has not been given a wider release by MGM and I'm Still Here - Brazil's first ever nominee in Best Picture - has not even ventured outside the major cities.

At this moment, The Brutalist would be #1 on my ballot. I think it's a magnificently directed, sometimes overly self-serious epic about a failed American Dream, but especially about the relationship between artist and patron. I think Adrien Brody is even better in this lead role than he was in The Pianist (2002), which he won Best Actor for what feels like eons ago. I think Guy Pearce is underrated in Supporting Actor, and I still wonder how this was made for less than $10 million. I know this is a cynical movie and paints midcentury America in a poor light, but how I wish director Brady Corbet in Q&As and interviews would not so easily declare that the American Dream is a sham. You film is an immigrant's story (and a beautifully told one). Not the immigrant's story.

Wicked is in trouble, Best Picture-wise. It missed in Director, and it missed for its screenplay. No film since Grand Hotel (1932) has ever won Best Picture without either a Director or Screenplay nomination. That just feels like too much history for Wicked - which I very much enjoyed, but am more ambivalent about the direction - to overcome. So if Ariana Grande - who should be considered a co-lead, not supporting - doesn't win in March, can we please take a deep breath before we post stuff online?

Did Anora and Conclave peak too early in awards season? I'd like to see Mikey Madison take home Best Actress, but the film has been losing ground to Emilia Pérez for some time. And I can see many older members of the Academy thinking that it's essentially softcore porn (which parts of it can be, but the film is far much more than that). Conclave fits that mold of "Film the Academy Really Respects, but Doesn't Love Enough to Put Down as Their #1 Choice". Director Edward Berger is on my shitlist after All Quiet on the Western Front (2022, Germany; the link takes you to my write-up to the film and why I think the film is a terrible adaptation of the original novel). But, other than the oppressively dark color palette that looks terrible on home screens, I really liked that tale of Vatican drama. I would be fine with Fiennes winning, if it came to that.

A Complete Unknown - which is essentially a concert movie that told us little more about Bob Dylan that I already knew - overperformed. James Mangold in Director? No. Monica Barbaro in Supporting Actress? Eh. Adapted Screenplay? Please. And the kicker: I've never really taken to Timothée Chalamet, and I think it bewildering he becomes the youngest actor to receive a second Best Actor nomination since James Dean (posthumously, for 1955's East of Eden and 1956's Giant). Best Actor skews older than Actress, sure. This one was powered by older AMPAS voters, wasn't it?

I saw The Substance on Sunday after I missed its original release back in September/October. Too busy with work and body horror is one of my almost "no-go" subgenres. I admired the film far more than I liked it. And I had the biggest grin on my face as we got to the chaos of the final half hour. It's a fascinating film, and congratulates Coralie Fargeat on the Director nomination (I agree!). Would I vote for The Substance in any category? No, except for Makeup and Hairstyling. I thank that one's a shoo-in for reasons I won't go into here.

Denis Villeneuve's Dune: Part Two got a lot less love than the first part. Now, I thoroughly dislike the source material (I was assigned it during summer school and adding to this... the teacher who taught it was not great) and I'm very ambivalent towards some of the people who appear in these movies (read: Chalamet). But the movie just continued to remind that there's a far superior movie made with very similar themes that was also set in a desert. And in fact, author Frank Herbert was inspired by that movie when he wrote Dune. The movie? Lawrence of Arabia (1962). By the time I reminded myself of the Dune-Lawrence connection a third of the way through the former's second part, I watched the remainder out of obligation. I suspect AMPAS voters want to award Villeneuve if he completes Dune: Messiah... and that's not even a guarantee.

A24 really botched the release of Sing Sing, did they? I know A24 has its fans online, especially among younger cinephiles. But - giving you some inside scoops here - theater owners from outside the big cities tend not to like the fact that A24 tends to super-promote one movie at a time (like I Saw the TV Glow or Civil War earlier in 2024) and give short shrift to the others. A24 is also notoriously bad at following up non-big city theaters about their release strategies and intentions. Sing Sing dearly paid the price for the studio's concentration on The Brutalist.

Did we really just fucking nominate The Apprentice for Actor and Supporting Actor? I haven't seen the film, but do we REALLY want Donald Trump to chime in on the Academy Awards season? I think AMPAS is in the mood to "send a message" rather than honor quality filmmaking right now, and that 's being shown here and - ostensibly - with those 13 nominations for Emilia Pérez.

The little Latvian movie that could, Flow, becomes only the third animated movie to have been nominated for International Feature (Waltz with Bashir and Flee before it). It overperformed on the day, and it's what I would vote for on Animated Feature. Made on free software for a pittance, it is incredible what director Gints Zilbalodis was able to do. It'll cross borders and generations, easily.

Elsewhere among animated works, I'm overjoyed for Memoir of a Snail and Adam Elliot. Australia's stop-motion animation poster child is a name that more people should be familiar with, and this nomination is very much overdue. Not enough people saw this film, though. So the nomination is 100% a win. Pity that Mars Express couldn't find a way to break through here, but even fewer people saw that in theaters, comparatively.

Inside Out 2 is gonna find a way to win this over The Wild Robot and Flow, isn't it? AMPAS loves their Pixar and Disney. They have never given an Oscar to someone outside a major American studio or anyone not named Hayao Miyazaki (I acknowledge that he is a fantastic filmmaker, but unlike some of his other anime colleagues, Miyazaki gets far on name recognition alone and he gets a lot of big Hollywood figures to campaign for his films).

Speaking of The Wild Robot! Kris Bowers' score to the film is the score of the year. Bowers is one of a few young handful of composers who I hope usher in a new age of Hollywood film score composers that will not only usher in a promising future, but also understand the value of melody and the richness of what orchestras - or orchestras combined with electronic elements - can provide (which I think many recent film score composers are abandoning).

And now I risk the wrath of people - largely folks my age and younger and the Letterboxd crowd - on this website. As a film score diehard and multi-instrumentalist, seeing all that praise for Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross' score to Challengers (which I think should've been nominated for Editing, but nothing more) was, frankly, grating to me. I thought the score was play far too loudly in emotional scenes. And just because the whole fucking score is banger club/workout music does not necessarily make for what I consider to be effective film scoring. (If you think I'm delusional... the music branch of the Academy includes composers and lyricists and producers but does not include the musicians who play those scores. Many of those who play on film scores hail from small ensembles or orchestras, and probably think similarly and might even consider Reznor and Ross' process to be a threat to their futures in film scoring). In short: I'm fine with Challengers not being nominated in Score.

But fucking hell. That is one of the worst Best Original Song slates I can remember in sometime. My god.

Congratulations to France's Miyu Studios, who either produced/co-produced/distributed three of the five nominees in Best Animated Short. And just going to show how democratic the short film categories are, there were three past nominees on the shortlist for Animated Short, each of whom are major figures in the world of contemporary animated shorts - Don Hertzfeldt (World of Tomorrow), Dice Tsutsumi (The Dam Keeper), and Torill Kove (The Danish Poet and Me and My Moulton). Not a single one of the previous nominees made it.

Three monkey movies in Visual Effects (Better Man, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked)? Hilarious.

[thetyger]

the academy of motion picture arts and sciences are not an intellectual people, to put it mildly.

i know i've said the oscars are fake and dumb, and i stand by that, but as a certified Movie Watcher i wanted to put all my opinions on the 2025 nominees* into a list.

(*caveat to this is i'm seeing i'm still here tomorrow, seed of the sacred fig next week, and likely all the shorts at once when the compliations are in theaters, but i wanted to give my day-of opinions while the iron's hot! i'll update the list after i see them if i remember.)

best picture

should win: anora, conclave, nickel boys

won’t win, probably shouldn’t win, but it would be funny if they did: dune 2, the substance

not my pick but i won’t be mad if they win: the brutalist, wicked, i'm still here

i will blow up the academy: emilia pérez, a complete unknown

directing

should win: sean baker

won’t be mad if they win: brady corbet

not really sure why they’re here but ok: coralie fargeat, james mangold

kill yourself, frenchman: jacques audiard

actor in a leading role

really should win: colman domingo

cool if they win: adrien brody, ralph fiennes

questionable win: timothée chalamet, sebastian stan

actress in a leading role

should win: mikey madison

cool if they win: fernanda torres

questionable win: cynthia erivo, demi moore

good for representation i guess but highly questionable win: karla sofía gascón

actor in a supporting role

actually i’m kinda fine with all of these.

actress in a supporting role

i can’t believe i’m saying this, but should actually win: ariana grande

fine if they win: everyone else

writing (adapted screenplay)

should win: conclave

okay if they win: sing sing, nickel boys

should not have been nominated: a complete unknown, emilia pérez

writing (original screenplay)

should win: anora, the substance

fine if they win: a real pain

the good part was definitely not the screenplay: the brutalist, september 5

animated feature film

should win, i truly don’t care if i haven’t seen the others: flow

it was fine: memoir of a snail, wallace & gromit: vengeance most fowl

haven’t seen: the wild robot

refuse to see: inside out 2

cinematography

should win: the brutalist

cool if they win: nosferatu

fine if they win: dune 2, emilia pérez

haven’t seen: maria

costume design

should win: nosferatu

fine if they win: wicked, conclave, gladiator ii

why are you here: a complete unknown 

film editing

should win on principle even though i don’t think any of these have particularly standout editing: anora, conclave, the brutalist

should lose on principle: emilia pérez

editing was actually not great: wicked

makeup and hairstyling

should win: the substance

cool if they win: a different man, wicked 

fine if they win: emilia pérez, nosferatu

music (original score)

should win: the brutalist

whatever: conclave

original score????? huh?????: wicked

should be beaten with hammers: emilia pérez 

haven’t seen: the wild robot 

music (original song)

i love this movie and don’t remember this song being there at all, which says something: like a bird

actively bad music: el mal, mi camino

haven’t seen: the journey, never too late

international feature film

cool if they win: flow

should probably actually win: the girl with the needle

predictable but okay if they win: i'm still here

questionable win: the seed of the sacred fig

should not win: emilia pérez 

production design

should win: the brutalist

cool if they win: dune 2, conclave, nosferatu, wicked

sound

fine with all of these.

visual effects

should win: kingdom of the planet of the apes

i can’t believe i’m saying this, but am kinda cool with the win: better man

whatever: dune 2, wicked, alien: romulus

THE MORAL OF THIS STORY IS: where the fuck was challengers

[9eeeeevvvvvaaaaa6]

‼️🚨 ATTENTION EVERYBODY 🚨‼️

The nominations for this year's Academy Awards have been announced. Emilia Pérez" leads the field.

After two disaster-related shifts, Rachel Sennott and Bowen Yang revealed on Thursday afternoon, the works and stars were hoping this year at the 97th place. The genre-explosive musical "Emilia Pérez" by French director Jacques Audiard is the favourite in the award ceremony, which will be held on 2nd. March will be held. The film, already successful at the Golden Globes, brings together 13 nominations, announced the Academy on Thursday. This is followed by the fictional biography "The Brutalist" and the Disney (?!) musical "Wicked" with 10 chances of winning each.

Foreignoscar without Austria

In the race for the foreign Oscar is "Die Saat des heiligen Feigenbaum" by the director Mohammad Rasoulof, who lives in Germany. The native Iranian measures herself here with the omnipresent "Emilia Pérez" as well as the Danish production "The Girl with the Needle", "I'm Still Here" from Brazil and the Latvian animation strip "Flow". The Austrian entry "Des Teufels Beitrag" by Veronika Franz and Severin Fiala had not made it to the pre-selection before.

The favourites and their number of nominations

"Emilia Pérez" (13) "Wicked" und "Der Brutalist" (10) "Konklave", "Like A Complete Unknown" (8) "Anora" (6) "Dune: Part Two", "The Substance" (5) "Nosferatu" (4) "I'm Still Here", "Sing Sing", "Der wilde Roboter" (3) "A Real Pain", "Flow", "Nickel Boys", "The Apprentice" (2)

The nominees in the categories

Actor in a Supporting Role Yura Borisov, Anora Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown Guy Pearce, The Brutalist Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

Costume Design A Complete Unknown Conclave Gladiator II Nosferatu Wicked

Makeup and Hairstyling A Different Man Emilia Pérez Nosferatu The Substance Wicked

Music (Original Score) The Brutalist Conclave Emilia Pérez Wicked The Wild Robot

Music (Original Song) "Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez “Like A Bird” from Sing Sing “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight

Animated Short Film Beautiful Men In the Shadow of the Cypress Magic Candies Wander to Wonder Yuck!

Live-Action Short Film A Lien Anuja I’m Not a Robot The Last Ranger The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent

Writing (Adapted Screenplay) A Complete Unknown Conclave Emilia Pérez Nickel Boys Sing Sing

Writing (Original Screenplay) Anora The Brutalist A Real Pain September 5 The Substance

Actress in a Supporting Role Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown Ariana Grande, Wicked Felicity Jones, The Brutalist Isabella Rossellini, Conclave Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pére

Documentary Feature Film Black Box Diaries No Other Land Porcelain War Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat Sugarcane

Documentary Short Film Death by Numbers I Am Ready, Warden Incident Instruments of a Beating Heart The Only Girl in the Orchestra

International Feature Film Brazil, I’m Still Here Denmark, The Girl With the Needle France, Emilia Pérez Germany, The Seed of the Sacred Fig Latvia, Flow

Animated Feature Film Flow Inside Out 2 Memoir of a Snail Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl The Wild Robot

Production Design The Brutalist Conclave Dune: Part Two Nosferatu Wicked

Sound A Complete Unknown Dune: Part Two Emilia Pérez Wicked The Wild Robot

Visual Effects Alien: Romulus Better Man Dune: Part Two Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes Wicked

Actor in a Leading Role Adrien Brody, The Brutalist Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown Colman Domingo, Sing Sing Ralph Fiennes, Conclave Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

Actress in a Leading Role Cynthia Erivo, Wicked Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez Mikey Madison, Anora Demi Moore, The Substance Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here

Directing Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez Sean Baker, Anora Brady Corbet, The Brutalist Coralie Fargeat, The Substance James Mangold, A Complete Unknown

Best Picture Anora The Brutalist A Complete Unknown Conclave Dune: Part Two Emilia Pérez I’m Still Here Nickel Boys The Substance Wicked

Source:

[yesimtrashforit]

Oscars 2025

As a huge film fan, I'm fairly happy with this year's Oscar nominations!

Best Picture

I'm very happy to see Anora be nominated. It was one of my favorite films of 2024 and personally, it is one of my favs to win. I haven't seen The Brutalist and I have chosen not to. I'm sure the film is fantastic, but I've read about what it depicts and I'm concerned it may be triggering for me. I'm personally frustrated that, as I've heard, The Brutalist depicts gratuitous nudity and scenes of SA. I only hope that it's depicted in a negative light and it serves the story. I might see the film if it comes to streaming, just so I have a chance to pause. I did see A Complete Unknown the other day and thought it was fine! Timothee Chalamet is absolutely great as Bob Dylan. I started listening to Dylan's discography a while ago and I'm fairly happy with how the songs were used in the film. I saw Conclave a while ago and liked it! It's far from my favorite film of the year, but I thought it was beautifully shot and had great commentary. Dune: Part Two being nominated for Best Picture is more than appropriate. I love love loved it. It's a perfect movie. I have mixed feelings on Emilia Perez that I'm probably going to post about later. I'm quite surprised that I'm Still Here made it into Best Picture. I haven't seen it yet, but it is coming to theaters near me in February so I will definitely go see it! I haven't seen Nickel Boys yet. The Substance is one of my favorite films of last year and i'm so so overjoyed that a feminist body horror film about beauty standards directed by a woman is nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars?? That is so cool!! Wicked was obviously fantastic and amazing. Such a well-deserved nomination.

Best Actor

I've only seen A Complete Unknown and Conclave, so out of the performances that I've seen in this category, my pick is Timothee Chalamet in A Complete Unknown. However, I do think it is hilarious that Sebastian Stan is nominated for an Oscar for playing Donald Trump in a movie that depicts how terrible and abusive he was to his wife in the year Trump got re-elected.

Best Actress

I've seen all performances in this category except for Fernanda Torres. Out of these, I'm stuck between Mikey Madison in Anora and Demi Moore in The Substance. However, I have to celebrate the fact that Karla Sofia Gascon is the first openly trans actress to be nominated for an Oscar. That is absolutely incredible.

Best Supporting Actor

I've seen Anora, A Complete Unknown and A Real Pain. My personal pick would be Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain. I thought his performance was awesome.

Best Supporting Actress

This is one of the only categories where I'm rooting for Emilia Perez. Zoe Saldana is easily my pick for Supporting Actress. She has been since I saw the film.

Best Director

Either Sean Baker or Coralie Fargeat. I will be happy with both.

Best Cinematography

It's between Dune: Part Two and Nosferatu for me. I love both of those films and their cinematography.

Best International Feature Film

I've only seen Emilia Perez and Flow. Between those, my pick is honestly Flow.

Best Original Screenplay

It is so hard to choose, but I would go with Anora or The Substance here.

Best Adapted Screenplay

I'm choosing Conclave here, out of the ones I've seen. I liked its script the best and I think it is a very important story to tell.

Best Animated Feature Film

I've seen all except Wallace and Gromit. My pick is Memoir of a Snail. However, I did love The Wild Robot and will be happy if it wins, too!

Best Original Song

My pick is El Mal from Emilia Perez here. It's the best musical number in the film and the best sequence in the entire movie. Despite my mixed feelings on the film, I loved that part.

Best Original Score

I'd go with Wicked here. Beautiful score with some great details.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

I've seen all except A Different Man, but I am planning to watch it now! My pick for now is The Substance, but wow, all the makeup nominees were really good.

Best Costume Design

Nosferatu. Period. The costumes were incredible and seemed very accurate to the time.

Best Editing

Anora is my pick. That entire second act is basically one continuous scene and the incredible editing made it work.

Best Sound

Dune: Part Two. Easily. It's fricking astonishing.

Best Production Design

Got to give it Wicked. Those sets were all practical and built for the film! Absolutely stunning.

Best Visual Effects

I loved Alien: Romulus and I'm very happy it was nominated. However, I'm giving it to Dune: Part Two.

[genreneutralfilm]

2025 Academy Award Nomination Predictions

Oscar Nomination Morning is tomorrow! So I’ve compiled my list of what I’ve predicted the nominations will look like. I’ve listed them all below in order of likelihood to be nominated. 

2024 was genuinely one of my favorite years of movies since I've been following this closely so I am very excited about tomorrow.

Best Picture-

Anora

The Brutalist

Emilia Perez

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Wicked

The Substance

A Complete Unknown 

A Real Pain

Sing Sing

Best Director-

Brady Corbet- The Brutalist

Sean Baker- Anora

Emilia Perez- Jacques Audiard

Coralie Fargeat- The Substance

Edward Berger- Conclave

Best Actress- 

Demi Moore- The Substance

Mikey Madison- Anora

Kara Sofia Gascon- Emilia Perez

Cynthia Erivo- Wicked

Pamela Anderson- The Last Showgirl

Best Actor-

Adrien Brody- The Brutalist

Timothee Chalamet- A Complete Unknown

Ralph Fiennes- Conclave

Colman Domingo- Sing Sing

Daniel Craig- Queer

Best Supporting Actress-

Zoe Saldana- Emilia Perez

Ariana Grande- Wicked

Isabella Rossellini- Conclave

Margaret Qualley- The Substance

Jamie Lee Curtis- The Last Showgirl

Best Supporting Actor- 

Kieran Culkin- A Real Pain

Edward Norton- A Complete Unknown

Yura Borisov- Anora

Guy Pearce- The Brutalist

Clarence Maclin- Sing Sing

Original Screenplay-

Anora

The Brutalist

A Real Pain

The Substance

Challengers

Adapted Screenplay- 

Conclave

Emilia Perez

Nickel Boys

Sing Sing

A Complete Unknown

International Feature-

Emilia Perez

The Seed of the Sacred Fig

I’m Still Here

The Girl with the Needle

Kneecap

Documentary Feature-

Daughters 

Black Box Diaries

No Other Land

The Remarkable Life of Ibelin

Dahomey

Animated Feature-

The Wild Robot

Flow

Inside Out 2

Memoir of a Snail

Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

Cinematography-

Dune: Part Two

The Brutalist

Nickel Boys

Nosferatu

Conclave

Editing-

Anora

Dune: Part Two

Conclave

The Substance

Challengers

Production Design-

Wicked

Dune: Part Two

Nosferatu

The Brutalist 

The Substance 

Costume Design-

Wicked

Dune: Part Two

Gladiator II

Nosferatu

Conclave

Makeup and Hairstyling-

The Substance

Wicked

Nosferatu

Dune: Part Two

A Different Man

Visual Effects-

Dune: Part Two

Wicked

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Alien: Romulus

Gladiator II

Sound-

Dune: Part Two

Wicked

A Complete Unknown

Alien: Romulus

Emilia Perez

Score-

Emilia Perez

The Brutalist

Conclave

The Wild Robot

Challengers

Original Song-

El Mal- Emilia Perez

Mi Camino- Emilia Perez

Kiss The Sky- The Wild Robot

Compress/Repress- Challengers

The Journey- The Six Triple Eight

Documentary Short-

The Only Girl in the Orchestra

Incident

I Am Ready, Warden

Once Upon a Time in Ukraine

Chasing Roo 

Animated Short-

ME

A Bear Named Wojtek

Beautiful Men

In the Shadow of the Cypress

A Crab in the Pool

Live Action Short-

Anuja

The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent

The Masterpiece

A Lien

Paris 70

[chinchillasorchildren]

Well...

Best Picture

Anora

The Brutalist

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Dunc-O-Rama Canto Due

Emilia Perez

Nickel Boys

A Real Pain

Sing Sing

Wicked

Just out of reach: September 5, The Substance

Director

Jacques Audiard - Emilia Perez

Sean Baker - Anora

Edward Berger - Conclave

Brady Corbet - The Brutalist

Coralie Fargeat - The Substance/James Mangold - A Complete Unknown

Is the spice still flowing?: Jon Chu (Wicked), Denis Villeneuve (Dune Pt 2), RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys)

Actor

Adrien Brody - The Brutalist

Timothee Chalamet - A Complete Unknown

Ralph Fiennes - Conclave

Colman Domingo - Sing Sing

Sebastian Stan - A Different Man/The Apprentice

End of the road probably: Daniel Craig (Queer), Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain)

Actress

Karla Sofia Gascon - Emilia Perez

Marianne Jean Baptiste - Hard Truths

Mikey Madison - Anora

Demi Moore - The Substance

Fernanda Torres - I'm Still Here

Margot Robbie 2.0: Cynthia Erivo (Wicked)

Never the big threats they could have been: Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), Pam Anderson (The Last Showgirl), Angelina Jolie (Maria)

Supporting Actor

Yura Borisov - Anora

Kieran Culkin - A Real Pain

Edward Norton - A Complete Unknown

Guy Pearce - The Brutalist

Jeremy Strong - The Apprentice

Alt: Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing)

Supporting Actress

Jamie Lee Curtis - The Last Showgirl

Selena Gomez - Emilia Perez

Ariana Grande - Wicked

Isabella Rosselini - Conclave

Zoe Saldaña - Emilia Perez

The Maggie Gyllenhaal-print: Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown)

Adapted Screenplay

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Emilia Perez

Nickel Boys

Sing Sing

Original Screenplay

Anora

The Brutalist

Hard Truths

A Real Pain

The Substance

Editing

Anora

The Brutalist

Conclave

Dune Part 2

Emilia Perez

Cinematography

The Brutalist

Conclave

Maria

Nickel Boys

Nosferatu

They should have re-released in the fall: Dune Part 2

Downballot/recency bias beneficiary: A Complete Unknown

If they really feel like trolling: Wicked

Production Design

The Brutalist

Conclave

Dune Part 2

Nosferatu

Wicked

Alts: The Substance, Gladiator 2, A Complete Unknown

Costume Design

The Brutalist

Dune Part 2

Gladiator 2

Nosferatu

Wicked

Alts: Maria, The Substance, A Complete Unknown, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

Animated Feature

Flow

Inside Out 2

Memoir of a Snail

Moana 2

The Wild Robot

Documentary Feature

Black Box Diaries

Daughters

Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat

Sugarcane

Will and Harper

....will they?: No Other Land, Dahomey

International Feature

Emilia Perez (Mexico)

The Girl With the Needle (Denmark)

I'm Still Here (Brazil)

The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)

Vermiglio (Italy)

Score

The Brutalist

Challengers

Conclave

Emilia Perez

The Wild Robot

Never count him out: The Room Next Door

Sound

A Complete Unknown

Dune Part 2

Emilia Perez

Gladiator 2

Wicked

VFX

Better Man

Dune Part 2

Gladiator 2

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Wicked

Hair and Makeup

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

Emilia Perez

Nosferatu

The Substance

Wicked

[femme-foucault]

Alright "final" Oscar nom predictions:

The Oscar nominations were supposed to come out on the 17th but were pushed back due to the wildfires, so now they are out on the 23rd. I know the main story on Film Internet right now is the AI controversy with The Brutalist, but since that story didn't break until after voting ended, I don't see that controversy hurting nominations for that film. It might affect wins, but it depends. So I'm keeping it in my predictions for now.

As usual, my predictions are in alphabetical order, not by personal preference.

Best Picture: Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune Pt 2, Emilia Perez, A Real Pain, Sing Sing, The Substance, Wicked

Yes, I'm still hope-dicting Sing Sing. The BAFTA noms gave me some hope. Let me be delusional. It could very well be Nickel Boys instead of Sing Sing.

Director: Jacques Audiard (Emilia Perez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave) Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)

Ugh, I caved and predicted Audiard even though I'm not happy about it. I would love to see Villeneuve (Dune Pt 2) get in here but I highly doubt it. I know Fargeat is a stretch but they are going to want a woman in there because of all the pushback in the past few years and Fargeat has been nominated at a number of pre-cursors.

Best Actress in a Lead Role: Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascon (Emilia Perez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance)....and someone else idk.

No idea who that fifth slot is, but I highly doubt it's Angelina Jolie (Maria) anymore and I've taken Nicole Kidman out of my predictions too because her movie (Babygirl) has not been nominated as much as people thought it would be just a month ago. In that climate, I do think Erivo is getting in for Wicked -- she won't win, but with Jolie and Kidman out I'd be surprised if she wasn't nominated. After the Globes, maybe Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here)?

Best Actor in a Lead Role: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)

Craig is the one I am weakest on but we'll see.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role: Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldana (Emilia Perez)

Honestly, Saldana and Grande are the only ones I am 100% sure of. It's a two-woman race there, but anyone else could be nominated. Now I have finally seen The Brutalist, I think Jones is this year's Emily Blunt -- the "tag along" nomination that accompanies two competitive acting performances in a best picture front runner (even though The Brutalist is much more divisive than Oppenheimer and I think a weaker movie (I was with it right up until the last 20 minutes, which I wasn't a fan of)). Selena Gomez might get in for EP if that movie over-performs even though she was terrible in that movie but being terrible has never stopped them from nominating someone before.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role: Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

I put Borisov in because he keeps being nominated at precursors, though if anyone misses, it's him, not Pearce -- even though Pearce didn't get nominated at SAG. I have fiiiiiinally taken out Clarence Maclin even though he gave my favorite male supporting role of the year because Sing Sing is not getting the love it deserves :(

Adapted Screenplay: A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune Pt 2, Emilia Perez, Sing Sing

I am going on a limb and guessing Dune Pt 2, even though I don't think the first one got in. I think Conclave wins here.

Original Screenplay: Anora, A Real Pain, The Substance....Idk what else, but Anora is probably winning. Especially because it looks like Emilia Perez might be winning Best Picture noooooooooooo so I could see it being like last year, where the two screenplay awards go to movies that weren't winning anything else that they wanted to award.

No real guesses for all the techies because there is always a few tech categories in something that I haven't seen. I think Dune Pt 2 is going to be nominated in many tech categories, but I still think Wicked is probably winning Costume and Production Design (though pre-AI controversy, I could have seen The Brutalist taking the latter) unless Emilia Perez just really over-performs.