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#Banks Day 54.3
mysimsloveaffair · 1 year
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Me-Me has one last place to show me before it gets too late and it’s time for us to check into the motel. So we cross the street to what she calls the Trolley Stop Diner. We pause by the model train, and I read the plaque while Me-Me shares more memories from her childhood.
Melisa: This was our favorite place to eat. They serve breakfast all day. Nanny Brock used to bring us here all the time. Only he never ate anything - he’d just order Earl Grey tea while we feasted on as many pancakes and waffles as we could eat.
Kai: You spent a lot of time with your nanny, didn’t you? Did you miss being around your parents?
Melisa: He mostly watched us while they were at work. He usually had nights and weekends** off unless my parents really needed him. Then, he moved out and only took care of us part-time when we were school-aged. 
We enter the diner that looks like a large trolley. According to the plaque outside, this location used to be a working trolley station but was converted into a restaurant a few decades ago. We grab a menu, but we’re still full from Merlin’s large brunch, so we end up ordering desserts. Me-Me also asks for one of those child placemats to color while we wait.
When Me-Me receives it, she starts coloring away. She looks so youthful and happy that I can’t resist blowing her a kiss.
Melisa: What was that for?
Kai: For being the love of my life.
Melisa: Aww, thanks, Kaby. I love you too!
**Link takes you to my WordPress website.
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attud-com · 1 year
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gravelish · 2 years
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Coeur d’Alene Loop (Day 1)
Wallace to Avery ID
28 September 2022
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The next few posts describe a three-day ride this past week in northern Idaho. I’d wanted to do this loop for several years but just hadn’t found the right time. The high areas aren’t really accessible until June and our summers fill up with other plans. Early fall makes sense, but not if forest fires lead to smoky conditions. This year, family plans and weather and smoke seemed to align, so I drove to Wallace* on Tuesday, rode for three days, and made it home Friday night. The only hitch was the rain on Day 2!
The ride is billed by the Friends of the Coeur d’Alene Trails as the Bitterroot 300. It links together a series of trails and bike routes in a big loop in the northern Idaho panhandle. For me, the 50-70 mile a day distances and a good gravel bike made it perfect. For someone on a different bike or someone uncomfortable with the daily mileages (much of the first two days on gravel), it might not work as well. Three days allows for lodging, whereas taking more time (or less) might be easier with camping gear.
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I began and ended my ride in Wallace* but that was certainly not the only option. I chose to do the trip without camping gear, as I was able to reserve rooms at each of my two intermediate stops (Avery and St. Maries). Wallace is near the eastern end of the Trail of the Coeur d’Alenes and my first 8 miles was to its eastern terminus in Mullan (I’ll ride the western 60 miles of the trail back to Wallace on Day 3).
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East of Mullan, I was on the road (quiet, no traffic) for several miles up past Hecla’s Lucky Friday Mine (I still have a powerful, somewhat surreal, memories of visiting lower levels of the Lucky Friday during a grad school field trip in the 80s). In Shoshone Park, I picked up the Northern Pacific (NorPac) Trail, which follows the old railroad grade up and over Lookout Pass (4700’) into Montana. The NorPac then continues down the east side, crossing under I-90 a couple of times (there’s a short cutoff to bypass the closed Borax tunnel), and emerges at Taft (once one of the nastiest mining towns in the west, but now just a highway maintenance yard on the interstate).
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It was a short climb up to the west portal of the 1.7 mile long Taft tunnel. This is where bike tourists typically start their downhill ride on the Route of the Hiawatha (and get shuttled back up). The official season ended in mid-September and the trail was gated, but there were no other explanatory or warning signs, so I went on through (my option was the steep gravel climb up over Roland (St. Paul) Pass, so I was glad for the shortcut through the divide). Once through, I was back in Idaho again, so my time in the mountain time zone was pretty brief.
The Route of the Hiawatha generally refers to the old Milwaukee Road, on which the elegant Olympian Hiawatha passenger train used to run, but here the name refers specifically to the section of rail trail from the Taft Tunnel down to Pearson. A month earlier and the trail would have been full of tourists on bikes enjoying the trestles and tunnels, but today I had it almost to myself.
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From Pearson, it was another 10 miles down the North Fork of the St. Joe to Avery. The railroad grade is now used as the road (still gravel) but there is also a less traveled route on the opposite bank of the river which is what I took. The two switch sides about half way down.
In Avery, I picked up snacks at the small store and a deli sandwich for dinner from Dan at the fly fishing shop across the street, which I ate in my room at the old schoolhouse.
*Short aside on Wallace.
Wallace has done a good job of preserving and capitalizing on its rich history - to the point where it’s preservation has become an important part of its history. The town is primarily about silver mining - begun in the late 1800s and still continuing today. The mining brought business, and vice, and railroads. Wallace (and Taft and Avery) were at the center of the terrible forest fires of 1910 (captured in Timothy Egan’s The Big Burn). In 1972, Wallace was the site of the Sunshine Mine fire, which took almost 100 lives, which I heard about on the news as a kid. But I also remember hearing Charles Kuralt’s episode on CBS Evening News sometime in the mid-1970s highlighting Wallace’s battle over the completion of the final segment of Interstate 90, which threatened to go straight through town (the result of the town being built in a narrow steep valley on the main road between Boston, Chicago, and Seattle). The compromise is that the highway now passes over the north edge of town on a viaduct. Wallace, and the entire Silver Valley (Kellogg and Silver Mountain), have had to deal with the legacy of silver mining as well as the double-edged legacy of federal efforts to clean up the mess it left behind.
Finally, for the last couple of decades Wallace has been the Center of the Universe - they even have a manhole cover to prove it. Wallace also has a Prime Minister. It was PM Rick, who plays many roles in Wallace, who responded to my emails about conditions on the bike route and told me where I could park my car while I was riding.
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Market Talk - July 22, 2022
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ASIA: Industry body FICCI on Thursday said India’s economy is estimated to grow 7% in the current fiscal, lower than the earlier projection of 7.4%, mainly due to the ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. FICCI’s Economic Outlook Survey (July 2022) also said the policy rate of the Reserve Bank of India is expected to touch 5.65% by the end of this fiscal. The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today: - NIKKEI 225 increased 111.66 points or 0.40% to 27,914.66 - Shanghai decreased 2.03 points or -0.06% to 3,269.97 - Hang Seng increased 34.51 points or 0.17% to 20,609.14 - ASX 200 decreased 2.80 points or -0.04% to 6,791.50 - Kospi decreased 16.02 points or -0.66% to 2,393.14 - SENSEX increased 390.28 points or 0.70% to 56,072.23 - Nifty50 increased 114.20 points or 0.69% to 16,719.45 The major Asian currency markets had a negative day today: - AUDUSD decreased 0.00195 or -0.28% to 0.69106 - NZDUSD decreased 0.00113 or -0.18% to 0.62397 - USDJPY decreased 0.987 or -0.72% to 136.121 - USDCNY decreased 0.00704 or -0.10% to 6.76196 Precious Metals: -  Gold  increased 5.81 USD/t oz. or 0.34% to 1,724.30 - Silver decreased 0.289 USD/t. oz or  -1.54% to 18.550 Some economic news from last night: Japan: National Core CPI (YoY) (Jun) increased from 2.1% to 2.2% National CPI (YoY) (Jun) decreased from 2.5% to 2.4% Foreign Bonds Buying increased from -1,489.1B to -919.6B Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks decreased from 526.4B to 476.0B National CPI (MoM) decreased from 0.3% to 0.0% Manufacturing PMI (Jul) decreased from 52.7 to 52.2 Services PMI decreased from 54.0 to 51.2 South Korea: PPI (YoY) (Jun) remain the same at 9.9% PPI (MoM) (Jun) decreased from 0.7% to 0.5% Australia: Manufacturing PMI decreased from 56.2 to 55.7 Services PMI decreased from 52.6 to 50.4 Some economic news from today: India : FX Reserves, USD decreased from 580.25B to 572.71B EUROPE/EMEA: The UK inflation came in at a 40-year high of 9.4% annually in June, and pay packets are failing to keep pace, with real wages plunging and workers across sectors becoming more disgruntled. The Office for National Statistics on Tuesday reported total pay increases of 7.2% in the private sector and 1.5% in the public sector in the three months to the end of May, for an overall average of 6.2%. The major Europe stock markets had a green day: - CAC 40 increased 15.71 points or 0.25% to 6,216.82 - FTSE 100 increased 5.86 points or 0.08% to 7,276.37 - DAX 30 increased 7.04 points or 0.05% to 13,253.68 The major Europe currency markets had a negative day today: - EURUSD decreased 0.00308 or -0.30% to 1.01978 - GBPUSD decreased 0.00212 or -0.18% to 1.19801 - USDCHF decreased 0.0032 or -0.33% to 0.96330 Some economic news from Europe today: UK: Composite PMI decreased from 53.7 to 52.8 Manufacturing PMI decreased from 52.8 to 52.2 Services PMI decreased from 54.3 to 53.3 Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Jun) decreased from -5.5% to -5.9% Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) increased from -1.0% to 0.4% Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) increased from -0.8% to -0.1% Retail Sales (YoY) (Jun) decreased from -4.7% to -5.8% France: French Manufacturing PMI (Jul) decreased from 51.4 to 49.6 French S&P Global Composite PMI (Jul) decreased from 52.5 to 50.6 French Services PMI (Jul) decreased from 53.9 to 52.1 Germany: German Composite PMI (Jul) decreased from 51.3 to 48.0 German Manufacturing PMI (Jul)  decreased from 52.0 to 49.2 German Services PMI (Jul) decreased from 52.4 to 49.2 Euro Zone: Manufacturing PMI (Jul) decreased from 52.1 to 49.6 S&P Global Composite PMI (Jul) decreased from 52.0 to 49.4 Services PMI (Jul) decreased from 53.0 to 50.6 US/AMERICAS: Continual shutdowns in the Port of Oakland are heightening supply chain woes across the US. The ongoing trucker protest has lasted for the duration of the week, with truckers protesting the California gig labor law, which classifies workers as employees instead of independent contractors. An estimated 450 workers have refrained from operations at the port. Reports of containers sitting idle for over two weeks are common and are likely to become more apparent as the protest continues. Inflation in Canada has spiked to a high not seen since 1973. Canada experienced high inflation in the 70s and 80s before peaking to a high of 12.9% in 1981. The last reported 8.1% rate is cause for concern, with numerous analysts believing this figure will continue to rise despite the central bank’s aggressive rate policy. During Canada’s last extremely inflationary period in the 80s, rates rose to a high of 21%. Both the cost of borrowing and living continues to rise for Canadians, and many are hoping that the central bank can do their part to curb rampant inflation without triggering a rate-induced recession. US Market Closings: - Dow declined 136.29 points or -0.43% to 31,900.61 - S&P 500 declined 37.05 points or -0.93% to 3,961.9 - Nasdaq declined 225.5 points or -1.87% to 11,834.11 - Russell 2000 declined 29.81 points or -1.62% to 1,806.88 Canada Market Closings: - TSX Composite declined 79.93 points or -0.42% to 18,982.92 - TSX 60 declined 3.95 points or -0.34% to 1,149.48 Brazil Market Closing: - Bovespa declined 108.35 points or -0.11% to 98,924.82 ENERGY: The oil markets had a mixed day today: - Crude Oil decreased 1.52 USD/BBL or -1.58% to 94.820 - Brent decreased 0.5 USD/BBL or -0.48% to 103.36 - Natural gas increased 0.373 USD/MMBtu or 4.70% to 8.3040 - Gasoline increased 0.0604 USD/GAL or 1.92% to 3.2099 - Heating oil decreased 0.1363 USD/GAL or -3.80% to 3.4540 - The above data was collected around 15:37 EST on Friday - Top commodity gainers: Natural Gas (4.70%), Bitumen(2.13%), Lean Hogs (2.06%) and Palladium (5.91%) - Top commodity losers: Oat (-8.03%), Wheat (-6.29%),  Lumber (-6.45%) and Coffee (-4.24%) The above data was collected around 15:45 EST on Friday. BONDS: Japan 0.219%(-1.8bp), US 2’s 2.99% (-0.106%), US 10’s 2.7740% (-13.4bps); US 30’s 3.00% (-0.075%), Bunds 1.0380% (-18.2bp), France 1.6230% (-19.1bp), Italy 3.420% (-20.2bp), Turkey 16.82% (-11bp), Greece 3.275% (-35.6bp), Portugal 2.224% (-18.5bp); Spain 2.295% (-18.9bp) and UK Gilts 1.9410% (-10.6bp). Original Article Original Article Here: Read the full article
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billehrman · 5 years
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There’s No Place Like Home
The U.S. stock market finished its best quarterly performance since 2009 rising by nearly 13% with the 10-year treasury bond ending at a breathtaking 2.4%. The pundits/experts have been fighting this every day, constantly calling for a market top anticipating an economic downturn or even a recession by year end due to the inverted yield. We disagree!  The turning point for the market and for us occurred when the Fed did an about face in December and was no longer going to be a threat to our economy. Interestingly, Larry Kudlow recently called for the Fed to reduce rates 50 basis points as an insurance policy to keep our economy going, fearing contagion from weakness abroad. We appreciate his position but would rather the Fed just remove the hike it made in December which was a mistake.
The U.S. economy is in fine shape. While we do not agree with the administration that growth will reach 3% this year, we are confident that our economy can expand by over 2.4% in 2019 and beyond for all the reasons stated last week: accommodative Fed; large growth in total employment and wages over the last year; highly stimulative fiscal policy including big tax cuts; large increases in technology spending resulting in accelerating productivity gains; and regulatory relief.  And if there are trade deals, our economy is likely to accelerate into 2020 due to declining trade deficits.
Clearly the United States is not only the current engine of the world but key to future global growth. While we are confident that China’s economy will do better moving forward due to all the domestic stimulus, we believe that a trade deal is essential for continued progress for China moving into 2020. Not so in the United States where trade is a much smaller share of GNP. And if there are no trade deals, the Eurozone, Emerging Markets and Japan will remain stuck in the mud doing well to stand still.
The bottom line is that we continue to find the U.S. markets undervalued with less risk than almost any other market. We are tired of hearing market pundits/experts say that our market is fully valued today at 17 times forecasted 2019 S&P earnings with a 10-year treasury yielding 2.4%, the Fed on hold for another year plus and bank capital/liquidity ratios at their highest levels in over 20 years. Do the math yourself. Ask Buffett what the appropriate stock yield/multiple should be relative to the bond yield? Why can’t the market easily sell at 19+ times earnings even if yields rose to 3.0% which won’t happen unless the global economy accelerates along with inflation. If so, earnings growth will accelerate offsetting any decline in multiple.
Let’s look at the recent data points that support our belief that there’s no place like home.
1.) Economic activity has picked up slightly in the United States: new home sales rose to an 11-month high in February; consumer sentiment rose to 98.4 in March; consumer spending increased modestly by 0.1% in January after a very weak December; personal income rose by 0.2% in February with a saving rate at a relatively high 7.5%; the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge tied to PCE actually fell 0.1% in January and is up only 1.4% year over year, the lowest number reported in 2 years; and the trade deficit fell to $51.15 billion in January as exports rose 0.9% from December whole imports fell 2.6% with the deficit with China declining 14% which we take with a grain of salt due to threats of added tariffs beginning January 1st boosting December exports from China. On the other hand, business saw some softness in February as the composite PMI Output Index fell to 54.3 from 55.5 in February. We have increased our estimate of first quarter GNP to slightly less than 1.8%, up 0.5% from a month ago. There were three other worthwhile events that need to be mentioned as they play a pivotal role in our investment assessment and why we believe there is no place like home.  First, venture capital funding hit $99.5 billion in 2018, a level not seen since 2000. It is paramount that the U.S. remain at the forefront of technological change if we are to remain the dominant global economic force over the foreseeable future. Clearly protecting our IP is probably the key issue in our trade negotiations with China. It does not hurt that Lyft went public last week at a valuation of nearly $30 billion which only adds fuel to the fire for more venture capital funding as Lyft investors made a fortune. It is widely believed that this will be a record year for new issues of truly great companies disrupting markets and making a difference. Second, fourth-quarter stock buybacks set a 4th consecutive quarterly record hitting $233 billion and $806 billion for the year. We see no reason that corporations will slow their buybacks in 2019 out of free cash flow and additional repatriation of foreign retained earnings. And finally, the Mueller report came out clearing Trump and his aids from conspiring or coordinating with the Russian government’s 2016 election interference and reached no conclusion of obstruction of justice Attorney General Barr pronounced the President clear of committing any criminal offense. Basically, this report removes any threat that Trump will be impeached removing a possible impediment for the markets.
The U.S. is well-positioned to outperform the rest of the world over the foreseeable future. Trump’s apparent exoneration from the Mueller investigation will only invigorate him to push his agenda “To Make America Great Again.” While we continue to disagree with his tactics and social views, we do agree with most parts of his economic, financial, regulatory and trade agenda. We are sure that the Chinese, Europeans and Japanese negotiators appreciate his renewed strength/confidence after the Mueller report improving our odds at getting a favorable outcome in the trade negotiations. Not bad!
2.) We remain cautious at best as to the prospects for growth in the Eurozone and Japan without trade deals. The flash eurozone PMI Composite Output Index fell to 51.3 in March; the services PMI fell to 52.7; the manufacturers PMI Output Index fell to 47.7 and the Flash Eurozone Manufacturers PMI fell to 47.6, a 71-month low. The Flash Japan Manufacturers PMI index remains at 48.9 with further production cuts and weaker new order inflows. Business confidence continues to fall. Need we say more?
The Eurozone desperately needs financial, regulatory and trade reforms. Will it happen? We doubt it except for the possibility of a trade deal with the U.S. before year end. Then there are growing risks of a hard Brexit. Europe is really between a rock and a hard place. Japan is only slightly better off, but the country has no room for added domestic stimulus as its aggregate debt to GNP is out of slight already. Trade deals is their only possible salvation which we do expect by this fall.
3.) We continue to believe that China’s economy will respond favorably to all the domestic fiscal and monetary stimulus. While it is likely to boost growth for the rest of the year, we doubt that it will be sustainable without a trade deal with the U.S.. Little deals with Italy and France won’t push the needle in China to make a difference.
The bottom line? There’s no place like home.
In closing, we fully recognize that we live in volatile times. We have learned to stay true to our core beliefs; stay open-minded willing to change when/if any of the key variables shift; and be patient as change takes time. Listen to all of the company conference calls so that you can discern the differences in strategies and invest in only the strongest companies as successful investing is a marathon, not a sprint. Paix et Prospérité continues to outperform.
Our portfolios include drug companies benefitting from new product flow; global industrials and capital goods companies with unit growth 1.5X GNP; technology at a fair price to growth including semis; low-cost industrial commodity companies generating huge free cash flow; capital companies with content; and many special situations where managements have strategies to close the gap between current price and intrinsic value. We own no bonds and are flat the dollar.
Remember to review all the facts; pause, reflect and consider mindset shifts; analyze your asset mix with risk controls; do your own research and…
Invest Accordingly!
Bill Ehrman Paix et Prospérité LLC
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magzoso-tech · 4 years
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Facebook, Google May Lose Over $44 Billion in Ad Revenue in 2020 Thanks to Coronavirus: Report
New Post has been published on https://magzoso.com/tech/facebook-google-may-lose-over-44-billion-in-ad-revenue-in-2020-thanks-to-coronavirus-report/
Facebook, Google May Lose Over $44 Billion in Ad Revenue in 2020 Thanks to Coronavirus: Report
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The Novel Coronavirus pandemic can wipe out more than $44 billion in global ad revenue for the tech giants Facebook and Google in 2020 as digital advertising runs dry, a new report has predicted.
According to global investment bank and financial services company Cowen & Co., Google’s total net revenue is projected to be about $127.5 billion — down $28.6 billion.
Facebook’s ad revenue for 2020 is forecast at $67.8 billion — a decrease of $15.7 billion, Variety reported on Thursday, quoting Cowen’s data.
However, Facebook’s advertising business is projected to “bounce back” in 2021, growing 23 percent (year-over-year) to $83 billion, said the Cowen analyst team.
“For full-year 2020, Google will generate $54.3 billion in operating income (43 percent adjusted EBITDA margin) and Facebook will pull in $33.7 billion (49 percent margin),” according to Cowen’s forecast.
In a separate blog post, LightShed analyst Rich Greenfield said that “digital platforms are feeling the pain soonest, given the relative ease of pulling ad spend versus mediums such as television (who are likely to experience far more pain in Q2 than Q1)”.
Cowen has cut its full-year revenue forecast for Twitter by 18 percent.
“Amazon’s ad business, meanwhile, is ‘generally less exposed’ to the downturn than other large digital platforms because the company’s advertising is mostly related to product searches”.
Facebook has admitted that its ad business has been adversely affected in countries severely hit by the Novel Coronavirus while non-business engagement like messaging has exploded which is affecting its services like Messenger and WhatsApp.
“Our business is being adversely affected like so many others around the world. We don’t monetize many of the services where we’re seeing increased engagement, and we’ve seen a weakening in our ads business in countries taking aggressive actions to reduce the spread of COVID-19,” said Alex Schultz, VP of Analytics and Jay Parikh, VP of Engineering.
With one-fifth of the world’s population now under lockdown and industries shutting operations amid global supply chain issues, the Coronavirus pandemic is set to deliver a sharp and deep economic shock, a new report has said.
According to analysts at BlackRock Investment Institute, market moves are reminiscent of the darkest days of the financial crisis, but they don’t think this is a repeat of 2008.
“Stringent containment and social distancing policies will bring economic activity to a near standstill, and lead to a sharp contraction in growth for the second quarter”, it said.
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mysimsloveaffair · 1 year
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I quietly sing along.
Kai: *singing* At last. My love has come along. My lonely days are over - And life is like a song… *continues*  (source)
As we dance, I realize we seem to have lost our way to each other somewhere in our marriage. We’ve been so busy with Me-Me working full-time, me working the farm and training for Mt. Komo, and us raising three kids that we rarely take time for one another. This has to change. It seems that Me-Me is thinking the same thing. She takes my hands.
Melisa: I miss this.
Kai: Me too. Let’s promise to make more time for each other. No matter what.
I realize that it’ll be harder with ma gone. I feel like we wasted so many opportunities, but I’m willing to do whatever it takes to make it happen.
Melisa: I promise.
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mysimsloveaffair · 1 year
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Kai: I’ve been thinking about this trip to Mt. Komorebi. I’m not sure how we should play it out. Our original plan was for you to go up with me.
Melisa: Yeah, but we both know I’m much too clumsy for that. I’d fall off the mountain for sure.
Kai: How about you come with the kids anyway? We can make it a family vacation.
Melisa: Without you? 
Kai: I mean - I’ll technically be there. But you and the kids can enjoy hiking and snowboarding while Mo, Stef, and I tackle the mountain.
Melisa: That sounds like a disaster. Clumsy me - hiking and snowboarding with three kids. I think I have a better idea. How about we spend Winterfest together at home - you leave with the guys and go to Mt. Komo, and I invite my mom and dad over to spend the rest of the Winter Break with us. It’ll give them more time with the boys.
Kai: You’re a genius. I think that’s the perfect solution. I always knew I married well.
Me-Me smiles as her glazed donut and my vanilla ice cream arrive.
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rishabh3210blog · 4 years
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Asia-Pacific Fruit Beer Market Share, Trends & Forecast to 2020-2026
Asia-Pacific fruit beer market is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 6.4% during the forecast period. Online distribution channel is offering an opportunity for the manufacturers of fruit beer to expand their presence online and reach target audience. An inclination towards online sales have been witnessed in the region, owing to the rising internet penetration in the region. As per the World Bank, 54.3% population in China were reported using internet, whereas in India, 34.4% population were using Internet. It can offer an opportunity for fruit beer manufacturers to collaborate with regional e-commerce retailers to sell their products on their website.
Get Free Sample Copy @ https://www.omrglobal.com/request-sample/asia-pacific-fruit-beer-market
Alibaba, BigBasket, Amazon, and JD.com are some major e-commerce players with potential availability in the region. The cost of fruit beer ranges from brand to brand. Additionally, fruit beer online may also come with offers and discounts. Online shop allows consumer to check the nutritional value on all fruit beer products by clicking on the product description of that product. Online retailers including BigBasket allows consumers to choose express or standard delivery to get the order the very same day, which supports timely delivery of fruit beer.
A Full Report of Asia-Pacific Fruit Beer Market is Available at: https://www.omrglobal.com/industry-reports/asia-pacific-fruit-beer-market
Further, the global brands are expanding their presence through partnership with online retailers. For instance, in February 2019, Boxing Cat Brewery in Shanghai, led by the global beer brand Anheuser-Busch InBev, collaborated with Tmall Innovation Center (TMIC), the Alibaba market research arm, which aims to become the first company to make a craft beer as per the customer needs, particularly for China.
Scope of the Asia-Pacific Fruit Beer Market
Market Coverage
Market number available for 2019-2026
Base year- 2019
Forecast period- 2020-2026
Segment Covered- By Flavor and Distribution Channel
Countries Covered- China, India, Japan, and Rest of Asia-Pacific
Competitive Landscape- Anheuser-Busch InBev, Carlsberg A/S, Heineken NV, Kirin Holdings Co., Ltd., and Coolberg Beverages Pvt. Ltd.
Key Developments in the Asia-Pacific Fruit Beer Market
In December 2019, Shipyard Brewing Co. set up international brewing alliance with Rocks Brewing Co. in Australia. This provides an opportunity for Rocks and Shipyard to share their renowned range of products with new audiences globally.
In October 2019, AB InBev and IHCL entered into a collaboration agreement with the hotel chain, Indian Hotels Company Limited (IHCL), to introduce 15 microbreweries over the next five years in India. This partnership is estimated at nearly $21 million.
Key questions addressed by the report
What is the market growth rate?
Which segment/country dominates the market in base year?
Which segment/country will project fastest growth in the market?
How COVID-19 impacted the market?
o          Recovery Timeline
o          Deviation from pre-COVID forecast
o          Most affected region/segment
Who is the leader in the market?
How players are addressing challenges to sustain growth?
Where is the investment opportunity?
Asia-Pacific Fruit Beer Market-Segmentation
By Flavor
Peach
Raspberry
Apricot
Cherry
Apple
Blueberry
Others
By Distribution Channel
Online
Offline
Asia-Pacific Fruit Beer Market– Segment by Country
China
Japan
India
Rest of Asia-Pacific
Company Profiles
Anheuser-Busch InBev  
Coolberg Beverages Pvt. Ltd.
Hangzhou Cheerday Brewery Co., Ltd.
Heineken N.V.
Hokkaido Brewing Co.
Kirin Holdings Co., Ltd.
Lindeman's Pty. Ltd.
Nippon Beer Co.
For More Customized Data, Request for Report Customization @ https://www.omrglobal.com/report-customization/asia-pacific-fruit-beer-market
About Orion Market Research
Orion Market Research (OMR) is a market research and consulting company known for its crisp and concise reports. The company is equipped with an experienced team of analysts and consultants. OMR offers quality syndicated research reports, customized research reports, consulting and other research-based services.
Media Contact: Company Name: Orion Market Research Contact Person: Mr. Anurag Tiwari Email: [email protected] Contact no: +91 780-304-0404
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coachcameronsoccer · 4 years
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EP 507 Hope Solo's Dog was Shot & Dave Portnoy's Epic Rant
CNN- German soccer returns but not as we know it Soccer's new look Germany's top-flight division regularly attracts an average of 43,300 people every game, but no more than 322 will be able to attend matches until the end of the season, with matches to be played behind closed doors. The select few allowed to attend games will then be split into three distinct zones -- the stadium exterior and interior as well the stands. Only 98 people (including players, coaches and referees) will be allowed around the pitch itself with a further 115 in the stands (including journalists, hygiene staff and emergency services) and 109 more outside of that (consisting mainly of security guards). A timetable will limit who is permitted into the stadium at any one time, including the staggered arrival of the teams around 90 minutes before kickoff. "The matches will feel different," said DFL CEO Christian Seifert. "After the first match-day we will all know why we prefer games with fans." "But that is the framework we have to operate in, and I expect the best possible sport within this framework." USA Today- Former Olympic soccer star Hope Solo: My dog was shot and is in critical condition Former U.S.Women's National Team goalie Hope Solo says on social media that she is "heartbroken" a day after her dog was shot. "Our magnificent dog Conan," Solo wrote on Instagram, "is in critical condition after being shot last night. It's hard news to share, but harder to make sense of such a heinous act." She posted the news as the caption of a photo of herself, her husband, former NFL player Jerramy Stevens, and her canines including Conan on the left. "Jerramy and I are shocked and heartbroken, but we want to say thank you to Wilkes Veterinary Hospital and their staff for rushing Conan into emergency care, as well as their COVID-19 care practices." WKYC.com University of Akron discontinuing men's cross country, men's golf, and women's tennis in new budget cuts The elimination of these sports, along with salary reductions for select coaches, staff position eliminations, scholarship and operating expenditure reductions will total approximately $4.4 million" the press release details. Las Cruces Sun News - New Mexico State operating budget expected to be revised The Chancellor told the regents that until the legislature acted, it was hard to tell what the affects would be, but warned that the university could face a budget deficit of $5 million depending on how much lawmakers claw back. Insidehighered.com Missouri Western State University Missouri Western cuts 30 percent of the faculty, along with programs in history, political science, sociology, economics, music and more. Of all the faculty cuts made during COVID-19 pandemic so far, those at Missouri Western State University may be the deepest. The institution is laying off 31 nontenured instructors, including some on the tenure track, at the end of this year. Twenty remaining professors will receive terminal, one-year contracts, meaning that about one-quarter of the full-time faculty will be gone by 2021. Others will take early retirement. Dozens of majors, minors and concentrations are being cut, too, including English, history, philosophy, political science, economics, sociology, Spanish, French and the arts. Sacramento Bee UC, CSU to lose 10% of state funding in new California budget proposal California’s public colleges and universities stand to lose hundreds of millions of dollars in planned funding in the state budget proposal Gov. Gavin Newsom released Thursday. The California State University and University of California budgets each would take a 10 percent cut from their planned funding. The proposal also rolls back funding for community college support services like campus food banks. The proposed funding cuts are detailed in a $203.3 billion budget that Newsom released to show his plan to close a projected $54.3 deficit that emerged since the coronavirus outbreak halted much of the state’s economic activity. Earlier this year, he had proposed a $Community college funding depends on money from Prop. 98 the education formula used to finance K-14 education. The budget estimates a $19 billion loss in Prop. 98 funding. To offset this blow, Newsom’s budget proposes cobbling together minor tax changes, federal assistance and revising pension fund contributions. The plan increases Prop. 98 funding for community colleges by $130 million.
Check out this episode!
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davidlori1053-blog · 5 years
Link
Count down for the biggest eCommerce retail event and the most chaotic sales weekend of the year has begun.
In 2018, the Amazon witnessed its biggest shopping day ever on Cyber Monday. It sold over 180 million items over the five days starting with Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday.
While on the other hand Alibaba, China’s biggest online eCommerce company collected $30 billion on 11 November Singles day alone! The giant’s sales recorded a hit of $10 billion in just an hour and crossed $1 billion in just a minute. Gone are the days where people used to shop in excess by only looking at the low prices. Customers now have to be attracted to your online store and not just that but you have to please them with amazing customer experience.
By now, you must be all set with your stocks, pricing, marketing, etc., but you need to have a good strategy to compete with the chaos around you. In addition, here is all you need to do to add billions to your revenue in just a single day!
To make this event a big hit for you as well, there are few aspects you need to focus on. Below are some crucial points discussed along with their solutions :
It’s All About Promotions:
Many retailers begin promoting their offers and discounts right from the beginning of the month also called Black November.
Five types of promotions that are necessary:
Percentage-based offers
Free-Shipping
Buy-one-get-one
Reward Points
Quantity discounts
It is easy to offer these many promotions but at the same time, it is a tough time for your team to set these offers to different customers and products simultaneously.
Magento 2 offers you an amazing feature- Advanced Pricing. It comprises of options like grouped, special, tiered pricing. Additionally, it enables you to set a minimum advertised price (MAP) and a retail price as suggested by the manufacturer (MSRP). This makes your work easier to manage all your promotional offerings. It enables you to set different prices and offers to different customers on a timely basis.
For example, you want to offer a flat 50% off on only a set of items and only to a specific set of customers. Using Magento’s Advanced Pricing you just need to create a customer group and set the offer against it. It is just a matter of a few clicks and you are live with all you promotional discounts.
Peak Handling Capacity
You can always expect the best but you have to prepare for the worst. While preparing for the Black Friday you must be having a fair idea about the amount of traffic you draw to the website.
If your eCommerce platform is not capable of handling such high-load, you must definitely look for a platform that provides you with such capabilities.  Preparing for such a situation is always better than a website crash!
To avoid such terrific situations, Magento 2 helps you better handle peak order volume and outsized customer lists. It gives the following features that will never let your website turn down.
Magento processes more orders per hour on the same hardware
It offers near to instant server response times for catalog browsing
Delivers fewer response times for cart and checkout pages
Supports multiple administrative users on the backend simultaneously
Don’t go Stockless
Planning your stocks is necessary, you do not want to display a ‘Sorry we are out of Stock’ pop-up on the most awaited day. People face horrifying situations where they end up selling more when they do not have enough stock available. This happens due to the inefficiency in managing the inventory properly.
To avoid this disaster, Magento 2 provides you with an advanced warehouse management tool.  This helps you keep a track of multiple items in multiple warehouses on just a single admin panel.
All you want to know is stock available at the warehouse, stock to shipped and stock available for sale. In addition, Magento 2 provides you all this at just a glance!
On-Site Search Performance
Keeping your on-site search performance up to the mark is extremely essential as that will help the customer navigate through the website freely. Customers must find it easy to walk around different business units you offer and find the products they need.
It is believed that approximately 80% of the customers leave the website due to bad on-site search experience.
The Magento 2 advanced search plugin provides:
Instant Search– Customers need not wait for the search result to appear. They can see the searching result instantly after they start typing only the first letter of the keywords in the search box.
Autocomplete– This feature provides customers with autocompleting the word where it predicts the rest of the word.
Maximum search results– The advanced search auto-displays 10 most-viewed or bestseller products, when the customer clicks on the search box.
Moreover, Magento 2 supports up to 10,000 SKUs and is compatible with the built-in Magento EE, Solr, and Elasticsearch. It provides you with many such amazing features, which will definitely optimize your on-site search performance.
Overall all Site Performance
No matter how well your website is doing, continuously improving the overall site performance is very important. In order to have the best Black Friday sale, you need to be well prepared for the high-load days. Giving the best experience is more important than offering discounts.
As you keep a check on the landing pages, you also have to focus on mobile devices. Not every customer must be using an iPhone or having a very good network. Therefore, the eCommerce platform that you use must be capable of providing similar kind experience on all devices.
Sometimes if your website runs slow is still tolerated by customers than looking at the ‘temporarily not available’ message.
Magento 2 offers you a faster application server response time to enable faster shopping experience that improves conversion rates and sales.
Magento 2 processes up to 39% more orders per hour
Provides up to 66% faster add-to-cart server response times
Provide up to 51% faster end-to-end checkout times
Multiple Payment Options
‘One-click’ purchases are like a blessing for customers. Having fewer payment options create a barrier for the customer to make a purchase and you have to remove all such obstacles from your system before the big day arrives.
To avoid such problems you need to have an eCommerce platform that is compatible with a number of payment options.
Magento 2 is compatible with the following payment options:
PayPal Express Checkout
PayPal All-In-One Payment Solution
PayPal Express
Bank Transfer
Pay On Delivery
net Direct Post
Easy Checkout
Providing customers with easy checkout helps them in saving time and makes their shopping process easy. You need to provide customer satisfaction by converting checkout just in a few clicks to boost the revenue.
The One Page Checkout feature of Magento 2 delivers you with some significant features that help you ease your checkout process:
Customizable according to your needs
It converts a 4-step default checkout process to one page only
Offers 5 layouts and 2 themes where you can select the design that perfectly matches your store.
Every layout on the One Page Checkout is mobile responsive
Mobile-Friendly Buying
No matter how well you plan your marketing strategies, pricing, etc, but if your website is not mobile-friendly it won’t work wonders for you. The only thing can decrease your conversion rate is when people are unable to access your website or newsletter email on their mobiles.
PracticalEcommerce says the percentage of online shoppers using mobile devices during the Black Friday week increased to 54.3%, compared to 18.9% in 2017. That’s exactly how important the mobile-friendly website is!
It is not only about having a mobile-friendly website but every other marketing content that is sent to customers should be compatible with their mobile devices. That includes all the email campaigns, newsletters, messages and flash notifications, etc.
We at i95Dev offer Magento 2 an eCommerce platform that is been built with the ‘Mobile First’ approach.
It is originally been designed to be responsive irrespective of the device used.
Its UI gets easily adjusted to any screens
Themes are applicable to any sizes and resolutions
Google now also evaluates the mobile site version first to rank, hence by using Magento 2 you can get a higher ranking of your website in the search engines.
Conclusion
So do you think your eCommerce website is ready for the year’s biggest eCommerce retail event?
In order to boost your revenue for the most awaited festive season sale of 2019, you need to keep a check on your eCommerce platform’s mobile-friendliness, attractive promotions, on-site search, and overall website performance. Also, focus on offering multiple payment options, easy checkout, and peak handling capacity. Make sure all the things are up to the mark, as you cannot afford even a single mistake this time.
i95Dev can help you successfully manage all the necessary aspects you need to focus on this season. Feel free to talk to our eCommerce Magento experts and request for a demo call today!
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brandonfullers · 5 years
Text
Events to Look Out for Next Week
The central banks policy meetings remain in the spotlight, with RBA and RBNZ announcing interest rates next week. Data-wise, we have some of the heaviest data, with Chinese and US inflation numbers along with GDP for the 1st Quarter of 2019 out of UK.
Monday – 06 May 2019
Caixin Services PMI (CNY, GMT 01:45) – The Chinese Services PMI is expected to have increased to 52.8 in April, up from 54.4 in March.
Markit Composite PMI and Retail Sales (EUR, GMT 08:00-09:00) – The EU Composite PMI is expected to remain at the three months low of 51.3 in April, while Retail Sales are forecast to slip to 0.1% m/m in March, with annual rate decelerating to 2.3% y/y from 2.8% y/y.
Tuesday – 07 May 2019
Retail Sales (AUD, GMT 01:30) – Retail sales are expected to come out lower, standing at 0.2% m/m in March, after climbing 0.8% in February.
Interest Rate Decision (AUD, GMT 04:30) –The softer Australian Q1 CPI has catalysed calls for the RBA to cut interest rates at its policy review next week, as OIS pricing is now discounting about a 66% probability for a 25 bp cut in the cash rate at this meeting, and is fully discounting such as move by June. This would take the cash rate to 1.25%.
Ivey PMI (CAD, GMT 14:00) – A survey of purchasing managers, the Index provides an overview of the state of business conditions in the country. Expectations suggest that the index will decline to 51.1 compared to 54.3 last month, although still remain above 50.
BoJ Minutes (JPY, GMT 23:50) – BoJ Minutes are expected to shed more light as to how Japanese policymakers assess the current global slowdown and whether they plan any further policy actions.
Wednesday – 08 May 2019
Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference (NZD, GMT 02:00) – RBNZ is expected to cut interest rates at their respective May policy meeting, by 25 bp. This would take the cash rate to 1.50%. RBNZ will end the day with the release of the Statement on Monetary Policy along with a press conference at which they will propose how they are planning to formulate and implement monetary policy during 2019.
Trade Balance (CNY, GMT 02:00) – Among the most prominent developments of late are China’s trade figures, which have contracted or slowed on an annual basis in recent months. Hence as the increase in tariffs and the slowing in China’s economy has weighed on the quantity of exports shipping out of the region, April’s exports are anticipated to drop at 2.3% y/y, from the 14.2% y/y. The trade balance is seen at $35 bln in April from $32.6B in March.
Thursday – 09 May 2019
Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – The April’s Chinese CPI is expected to grow to 0.1% m/m following the 0.4%m/m drop in March. The overall reading is estimated to post a gain up to 2.5% y/y.
Friday – 10 May 2019
Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The economy’s most important figure, preliminary Q1 GDP is expected to be unchanged at 0.2% q/q.
Consumer Price Index and Core (USD, GMT 12:30) – The headline CPI is estimated to rise 0.4% in April, after a similar reading in March. The overall CPI is expected to be up 2.1% y/y , from 1.9% in March. US Core CPI is estimated to rise 0.2% in April, following a 0.1% increase in March.
Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 5.8% in April, however the employment change is forecast to increase to 1K, after the 7.2k loss in March.
Click here to access the Economic Calendar
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Events to Look Out for Next Week published first on https://alphaex-capital.blogspot.com/
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michaeljtraylor · 5 years
Text
Welcome to Jobs Day – POLITICO
Editor’s Note: This edition of Morning Money is published weekdays at 8 a.m. POLITICO Pro Financial Services subscribers hold exclusive early access to the newsletter each morning at 5:15 a.m. To learn more about POLITICO Pro’s comprehensive policy intelligence coverage, policy tools and services, click here.
Welcome to Jobs Day — Job creation expected to slow in the January employment report out at 8:30 a.m. Expectations are for a gain of 160K with unemployment staying at 3.9 percent and wages up another 0.3 percent. The shutdown shouldn’t have a huge impact as BLS will count furloughed workers receiving back pay as employed.
Story Continued Below
But it could be a signal that the economy is slowing down a bit and White House hopes for sustained 3 percent growth could be wishful thinking. By the time 2020 rolls around, job creation could be slowing to around 100K per month. More below.
China talks end with a fizzle — Two days of high-level talks concluded with an Oval Office meeting and some mildly positive tweets and comments from President Donald Trump. But there was no concrete progress on the “complete deal” the president says he wants.
Trump talked about an upcoming meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at which he hopes to complete a deal. But there’s very little chance Trump is going to get something both sweeping and verifiable by then. But the president still wants a deal to goose markets so he’ll probably find a way to declare victory. More below.
Herman Cain for the Fed? — Former pizza magnate, failed presidential candidate, gold standard enthusiast and accused sexual harasser Herman Cain is on a long list of potential nominees a Fed Board seat, per NEC Director Larry Kudlow. The White House is in no rush to fill the two open seats. More below.
** A message from the National Association of REALTORS®: Talks on GSE reform are gaining momentum in Washington, as federal control of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is now in its 11th year. Join NAR for a comprehensive Housing Finance Reform policy forum on Thursday, February 7, at the Grand Hyatt. Register today at nar.realtor/events/nar-policy-forum. **
GOOD FRIDAY MORNING — Welcome to February! 14 days until the next shutdown. Email me at [email protected] and follow me on Twitter @morningmoneyben. Email Aubree Eliza Weaver at [email protected] and follow her on Twitter @AubreeEWeaver.
THIS MORNING ON POLITICO PRO FINANCIAL SERVICES — Patrick Temple-West on trial lawyers and big asset managers’ are scramble to stop the SEC from allowing companies to block shareholder lawsuits. To get Morning Money every day before 6 a.m., please contact Pro Services at (703) 341-4600 or [email protected].
Jobs report at 8:30 a.m. … ISM manufacturing at 10:00 a.m. expected to rise to 54.3 from 54.1 �� University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 a.m. expected to drop sharply to 90.7 from 98.3
TWEET DU JOUR from Bloomberg’s @JenniferJJacobs: “SCOOP: Trump is considering Herman Cain, the former pizza company CEO who ran for president in 2012, for a seat on the Federal Reserve board, five sources told me.”
REACT — Cumberland Advisors’ David Kotok emails: “I can guess at the political analysis behind the proposed appointment. He is a complete unknown on monetary policy. But maybe the toppings will become more interesting when the FOMC orders pizza for lunch?”
TRANSITIONS — Per POLITICO’s Katy O’Donnell: “The Federal Housing Finance Agency has a new chief of staff: John Roscoe, a special assistant to the president in the White House Office of Presidential Personnel. Roscoe will report to acting director Joseph Otting starting Monday.”
MORE ON JOBS DAY — Moody’s Mark Zandi emails: “Employment should increase by 180,000 jobs in January. The government shutdown is responsible for shaving 30,000 jobs from mostly government payrolls. …
“Abstracting from the vagaries of the data, the job market gracefully navigated the government shutdown. … However, policymakers should not take from this that government shutdowns don’t matter to the economy … Business and consumer confidence did suffer, and it wouldn’t be too much longer before nervous businesses scaled by their investment and hiring, and consumers their spending.”
Pantheon’s Ian Shepherdson: “We have few doubts that labor demand remained strong in January, but the chance of a repeat of December’s 312K payroll gain is slim. It’s true that businesses appear to be searching for huge numbers of people, but it’s also true that since mid-2017 they haven’t been able to find as many as they’d like.”
TRUMP EYES “COMPREHENSIVE” CHINA TRADE DEAL — Our Doug Palmer and Adam Behsudi: “Trump said … talks with China aimed at defusing a bilateral trade war were making good progress, but top aides directly involved in the negotiations stressed there are many difficult issues that need to be worked out.
“‘I think we’re going to make a deal with China. But it’s going to be a very comprehensive deal. We’re going to cover everything, OK,’ Trump told reporters … However, a White House statement issued hours later stressed there are still big differences between the two sides. It also reiterated that a March 1 deadline set two months ago in Buenos Aires to reach an agreement still ‘represents a hard deadline.’”
HOUSE PANEL TO WADE INTO TRUMP TAX RETURNS ISSUE — Our Bernie Becker: “A House panel next week will be the first to wade into Democrats’ efforts to ensure that … Trump and his successors release their tax returns, setting the stage for possible political and legal battles to come.
“The House Ways and Means Oversight Subcommittee specifically called next Thursday’s hearing to discuss a legislative proposal that would require presidents, vice presidents and major party nominees for those offices to release a decade’s worth of tax returns. But the hearing is likely to also touch on the Ways and Means Committee’s efforts to acquire and release Trump’s returns” Read more.
WARREN SETS FEB. 9 ANNOUNCEMENT — Our Natasha Korecki: “Sen. Elizabeth Warren is expected to formally announce her plans to run for president next week in an event that follows her New Year’s Eve exploratory-bid filing.
“In a message posted Thursday evening on Instagram, Facebook and Twitter, the Massachusetts Democrat told supporters to expect a major announcement on Feb. 9. … After the Feb. 9 event, Warren is expected to immediately ramp up her campaign travel schedule.” Read more.
TRUMP calls the congressional talks on border security funding a “waste of time” in a NYT interview and suggested he’s ready to declare a national emergency.
Get “Freezin’ for a Reason” with Special Olympics DC. Support more than 1,600 Special Olympics DC athletes and take the “Polar Plunge” on Saturday, Feb. 2. Proceeds provide sports, health and inclusion programs that benefit both children and adults with intellectual disabilities in the District. Visit www.dcpolarplunge.org to register as an individual, as a team or join an existing team.
S&P 500 SEES BEST JANUARY IN YEARS — AP’s Damian Troise and Alex Veiga: “Wall Street got its mojo back in January after finishing 2018 with its worst December since 1931. Stocks finished higher Thursday, closing out the month with the best gain for the S&P 500 index since October 2015. A series of strong corporate earnings helped power the monthlong rally, which followed a dismal December that nearly brought the benchmark index into a bear market, meaning a decline of 20 percent from a recent peak.” Read more.
But it was a rough day for Amazon — Bloomberg’s Spencer Soper: “Amazon.com Inc. shares dropped after the e-commerce giant gave a tepid first-quarter sales forecast and raised concerns about rising costs, slowing retail growth and a murky outlook for its business in India. Sales will be $56 billion to $60 billion in the current period, the company said Thursday, compared with analysts’ average estimate of $61 billion.” Read more.
WORLD’S LARGEST PENSION FUND TAKES A HIT — Bloomberg’s Keiko Ujikane and Shigeki Nozawa: “The world’s largest pension fund may have incurred a record loss after a global equity rout last quarter pummeled an asset class that made up about half of its investments. Total assets at Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund may have dropped to 155.6 trillion yen ($1.43 trillion) as of the end of December … That would be a record decline of about 14 trillion yen from the end of September.” Read more.
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM TODAY’S JOBS REPORT — NYT’s Ben Casselman: “American employers have added jobs for 99 consecutive months, easily a record, and most economists expect the streak to hit 100 with Friday’s report. The unemployment rate is under 4 percent for the first time since the Clinton administration, and wage growth — long a weak point — has been picking up. December’s job figures, which will be revised on Friday, were among the strongest of the entire recovery.
“But the shutdown idled hundreds of thousands of federal workers for much of January, and left hundreds of thousands of others working without pay. Ripple effects hit everyone from unpaid government contractors to Washington lunch spots that lost business.” Read more.
CENTRAL BANKS SHIFT ON STIMULUS PLANS — WSJ’s Brian Blackstone: “A slowing global economy and low inflation has central banks around the world rethinking plans to gradually pull back financial stimulus from markets and the banking system.
“The role reversal could support the economy in the months ahead and bolster markets and sectors like housing and autos. Central bankers have geared their messages toward pausing on tightening steps rather than imminently launching new stimulus. That is because they doubt the global economy is going beyond a slowdown toward outright recession.” Read more.
ITALY SLIDES INTO RECESSION — NYT’s Jack Ewing and Jason Horowitz: “Italy has officially slipped into recession, and Europe as a whole is essentially at an economic standstill, raising anxieties that the world is on the verge of a significant slowdown. …
“The Italian economy shrank 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018 compared with the third quarter, Istat, the Italian statistics agency, said. It was the second quarter in a row of declining output and that, by one common definition, means a recession. It is Italy’s third since 2008.” Read more.
** A message from the National Association of REALTORS®: Talks on GSE reform are gaining momentum in Washington, as federal control of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is now in its 11th year. Join NAR for a comprehensive Housing Finance Reform policy forum on Thursday, February 7, at the Grand Hyatt. The event will be held from 9AM-2PM. No-cost attendance includes lunch and a cocktail hour following the event. Register today at nar.realtor/events/nar-policy-forum.
The Forum brings together hundreds of industry stakeholders, policymakers, academic experts and financial regulators to discuss the challenges and opportunities facing the future of the housing finance system. With a vested interest in protecting the nation’s housing market, NAR continues to examine and advocate for potential approaches to housing finance reform efforts that would be most beneficial for consumers and promote broader credit access.
Featured panels will focus on lessons learned from the housing crisis and innovative solutions for the future role of the GSEs. Participants will include former Chairmen Jeb Hensarling and Barney Frank. **
Source link
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nicholerestrada · 5 years
Text
Welcome to Jobs Day – POLITICO
Editor’s Note: This edition of Morning Money is published weekdays at 8 a.m. POLITICO Pro Financial Services subscribers hold exclusive early access to the newsletter each morning at 5:15 a.m. To learn more about POLITICO Pro’s comprehensive policy intelligence coverage, policy tools and services, click here.
Welcome to Jobs Day — Job creation expected to slow in the January employment report out at 8:30 a.m. Expectations are for a gain of 160K with unemployment staying at 3.9 percent and wages up another 0.3 percent. The shutdown shouldn’t have a huge impact as BLS will count furloughed workers receiving back pay as employed.
Story Continued Below
But it could be a signal that the economy is slowing down a bit and White House hopes for sustained 3 percent growth could be wishful thinking. By the time 2020 rolls around, job creation could be slowing to around 100K per month. More below.
China talks end with a fizzle — Two days of high-level talks concluded with an Oval Office meeting and some mildly positive tweets and comments from President Donald Trump. But there was no concrete progress on the “complete deal” the president says he wants.
Trump talked about an upcoming meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at which he hopes to complete a deal. But there’s very little chance Trump is going to get something both sweeping and verifiable by then. But the president still wants a deal to goose markets so he’ll probably find a way to declare victory. More below.
Herman Cain for the Fed? — Former pizza magnate, failed presidential candidate, gold standard enthusiast and accused sexual harasser Herman Cain is on a long list of potential nominees a Fed Board seat, per NEC Director Larry Kudlow. The White House is in no rush to fill the two open seats. More below.
** A message from the National Association of REALTORS®: Talks on GSE reform are gaining momentum in Washington, as federal control of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is now in its 11th year. Join NAR for a comprehensive Housing Finance Reform policy forum on Thursday, February 7, at the Grand Hyatt. Register today at nar.realtor/events/nar-policy-forum. **
GOOD FRIDAY MORNING — Welcome to February! 14 days until the next shutdown. Email me at [email protected] and follow me on Twitter @morningmoneyben. Email Aubree Eliza Weaver at [email protected] and follow her on Twitter @AubreeEWeaver.
THIS MORNING ON POLITICO PRO FINANCIAL SERVICES — Patrick Temple-West on trial lawyers and big asset managers’ are scramble to stop the SEC from allowing companies to block shareholder lawsuits. To get Morning Money every day before 6 a.m., please contact Pro Services at (703) 341-4600 or [email protected].
Jobs report at 8:30 a.m. … ISM manufacturing at 10:00 a.m. expected to rise to 54.3 from 54.1 … University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 a.m. expected to drop sharply to 90.7 from 98.3
TWEET DU JOUR from Bloomberg’s @JenniferJJacobs: “SCOOP: Trump is considering Herman Cain, the former pizza company CEO who ran for president in 2012, for a seat on the Federal Reserve board, five sources told me.”
REACT — Cumberland Advisors’ David Kotok emails: “I can guess at the political analysis behind the proposed appointment. He is a complete unknown on monetary policy. But maybe the toppings will become more interesting when the FOMC orders pizza for lunch?”
TRANSITIONS — Per POLITICO’s Katy O’Donnell: “The Federal Housing Finance Agency has a new chief of staff: John Roscoe, a special assistant to the president in the White House Office of Presidential Personnel. Roscoe will report to acting director Joseph Otting starting Monday.”
MORE ON JOBS DAY — Moody’s Mark Zandi emails: “Employment should increase by 180,000 jobs in January. The government shutdown is responsible for shaving 30,000 jobs from mostly government payrolls. …
“Abstracting from the vagaries of the data, the job market gracefully navigated the government shutdown. … However, policymakers should not take from this that government shutdowns don’t matter to the economy … Business and consumer confidence did suffer, and it wouldn’t be too much longer before nervous businesses scaled by their investment and hiring, and consumers their spending.”
Pantheon’s Ian Shepherdson: “We have few doubts that labor demand remained strong in January, but the chance of a repeat of December’s 312K payroll gain is slim. It’s true that businesses appear to be searching for huge numbers of people, but it’s also true that since mid-2017 they haven’t been able to find as many as they’d like.”
TRUMP EYES “COMPREHENSIVE” CHINA TRADE DEAL — Our Doug Palmer and Adam Behsudi: “Trump said … talks with China aimed at defusing a bilateral trade war were making good progress, but top aides directly involved in the negotiations stressed there are many difficult issues that need to be worked out.
“‘I think we’re going to make a deal with China. But it’s going to be a very comprehensive deal. We’re going to cover everything, OK,’ Trump told reporters … However, a White House statement issued hours later stressed there are still big differences between the two sides. It also reiterated that a March 1 deadline set two months ago in Buenos Aires to reach an agreement still ‘represents a hard deadline.’”
HOUSE PANEL TO WADE INTO TRUMP TAX RETURNS ISSUE — Our Bernie Becker: “A House panel next week will be the first to wade into Democrats’ efforts to ensure that … Trump and his successors release their tax returns, setting the stage for possible political and legal battles to come.
“The House Ways and Means Oversight Subcommittee specifically called next Thursday’s hearing to discuss a legislative proposal that would require presidents, vice presidents and major party nominees for those offices to release a decade’s worth of tax returns. But the hearing is likely to also touch on the Ways and Means Committee’s efforts to acquire and release Trump’s returns” Read more.
WARREN SETS FEB. 9 ANNOUNCEMENT — Our Natasha Korecki: “Sen. Elizabeth Warren is expected to formally announce her plans to run for president next week in an event that follows her New Year’s Eve exploratory-bid filing.
“In a message posted Thursday evening on Instagram, Facebook and Twitter, the Massachusetts Democrat told supporters to expect a major announcement on Feb. 9. … After the Feb. 9 event, Warren is expected to immediately ramp up her campaign travel schedule.” Read more.
TRUMP calls the congressional talks on border security funding a “waste of time” in a NYT interview and suggested he’s ready to declare a national emergency.
Get “Freezin’ for a Reason” with Special Olympics DC. Support more than 1,600 Special Olympics DC athletes and take the “Polar Plunge” on Saturday, Feb. 2. Proceeds provide sports, health and inclusion programs that benefit both children and adults with intellectual disabilities in the District. Visit http://www.dcpolarplunge.org to register as an individual, as a team or join an existing team.
S&P 500 SEES BEST JANUARY IN YEARS — AP’s Damian Troise and Alex Veiga: “Wall Street got its mojo back in January after finishing 2018 with its worst December since 1931. Stocks finished higher Thursday, closing out the month with the best gain for the S&P 500 index since October 2015. A series of strong corporate earnings helped power the monthlong rally, which followed a dismal December that nearly brought the benchmark index into a bear market, meaning a decline of 20 percent from a recent peak.” Read more.
But it was a rough day for Amazon — Bloomberg’s Spencer Soper: “Amazon.com Inc. shares dropped after the e-commerce giant gave a tepid first-quarter sales forecast and raised concerns about rising costs, slowing retail growth and a murky outlook for its business in India. Sales will be $56 billion to $60 billion in the current period, the company said Thursday, compared with analysts’ average estimate of $61 billion.” Read more.
WORLD’S LARGEST PENSION FUND TAKES A HIT — Bloomberg’s Keiko Ujikane and Shigeki Nozawa: “The world’s largest pension fund may have incurred a record loss after a global equity rout last quarter pummeled an asset class that made up about half of its investments. Total assets at Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund may have dropped to 155.6 trillion yen ($1.43 trillion) as of the end of December … That would be a record decline of about 14 trillion yen from the end of September.” Read more.
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM TODAY’S JOBS REPORT — NYT’s Ben Casselman: “American employers have added jobs for 99 consecutive months, easily a record, and most economists expect the streak to hit 100 with Friday’s report. The unemployment rate is under 4 percent for the first time since the Clinton administration, and wage growth — long a weak point — has been picking up. December’s job figures, which will be revised on Friday, were among the strongest of the entire recovery.
“But the shutdown idled hundreds of thousands of federal workers for much of January, and left hundreds of thousands of others working without pay. Ripple effects hit everyone from unpaid government contractors to Washington lunch spots that lost business.” Read more.
CENTRAL BANKS SHIFT ON STIMULUS PLANS — WSJ’s Brian Blackstone: “A slowing global economy and low inflation has central banks around the world rethinking plans to gradually pull back financial stimulus from markets and the banking system.
“The role reversal could support the economy in the months ahead and bolster markets and sectors like housing and autos. Central bankers have geared their messages toward pausing on tightening steps rather than imminently launching new stimulus. That is because they doubt the global economy is going beyond a slowdown toward outright recession.” Read more.
ITALY SLIDES INTO RECESSION — NYT’s Jack Ewing and Jason Horowitz: “Italy has officially slipped into recession, and Europe as a whole is essentially at an economic standstill, raising anxieties that the world is on the verge of a significant slowdown. …
“The Italian economy shrank 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018 compared with the third quarter, Istat, the Italian statistics agency, said. It was the second quarter in a row of declining output and that, by one common definition, means a recession. It is Italy’s third since 2008.” Read more.
** A message from the National Association of REALTORS®: Talks on GSE reform are gaining momentum in Washington, as federal control of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is now in its 11th year. Join NAR for a comprehensive Housing Finance Reform policy forum on Thursday, February 7, at the Grand Hyatt. The event will be held from 9AM-2PM. No-cost attendance includes lunch and a cocktail hour following the event. Register today at nar.realtor/events/nar-policy-forum.
The Forum brings together hundreds of industry stakeholders, policymakers, academic experts and financial regulators to discuss the challenges and opportunities facing the future of the housing finance system. With a vested interest in protecting the nation’s housing market, NAR continues to examine and advocate for potential approaches to housing finance reform efforts that would be most beneficial for consumers and promote broader credit access.
Featured panels will focus on lessons learned from the housing crisis and innovative solutions for the future role of the GSEs. Participants will include former Chairmen Jeb Hensarling and Barney Frank. **
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from Garko Media https://garkomedia1.wordpress.com/2019/02/03/welcome-to-jobs-day-politico/
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mysimsloveaffair · 1 year
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It’s cold outside, so we bundle up, and Me-Me shows me a few of her favorite places in Newcrest.
Melisa: This is Founder’s Park. My parents used to bring us here a lot. It’s where my mom chose my dad during the costumed dating challenge.** It’s also where they had their first solo date during the challenge.
Kai: Oh really? That’s pretty cool.
Me-Me leads me to the large fountain in the middle of the park.
Melisa: Jay and Lia used to play in this fountain when our nanny Brock used to bring us here. They’d wait until he went to the restroom, then jump in.
Kai: Just Jay and Lia? Not you?
Melisa: I was too scared of getting in trouble. But they’d have these intense water fights - splashing each other until they were soaking wet from head to toe.
Kai: Did they ever get into trouble?
Melisa: No, Nanny Brock was too nice to really punish them. He’d just give them a look of disapproval - as he’d call it. I was the only one who never got the look.
Kai: The ultimate ‘good girl.’
Melisa: *chuckles* Yeah, I guess so. But when I went to college, I wanted desperately to change my ‘good girl’ image, so I went and got this nose piercing. Of course, it didn’t change much; I was still me - just with a nose ring.
Kai: I can relate. I was always the rule follower too. When I was in high school, my friends and I went to this out-of-town music festival** - I can’t believe I never told you this, but they didn’t want to stay there. So they decided to sneak off with fake IDs to a bar. I ended up staying at the festival all by myself. It was slightly humiliating.
Melisa: Aww, poor Kaby. *laughs* I would have done the same thing, though.
Me-Me’s laughter reaches her eyes, making them even prettier than they usually are. I’m enjoying every minute of this time alone with her. It reminds me of why I fell in love with her in the first place.
**Links will take you to my WordPress Website
(Full post available to read on my website)
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garkomedia1 · 5 years
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Welcome to Jobs Day – POLITICO
Editor’s Note: This edition of Morning Money is published weekdays at 8 a.m. POLITICO Pro Financial Services subscribers hold exclusive early access to the newsletter each morning at 5:15 a.m. To learn more about POLITICO Pro’s comprehensive policy intelligence coverage, policy tools and services, click here.
Welcome to Jobs Day — Job creation expected to slow in the January employment report out at 8:30 a.m. Expectations are for a gain of 160K with unemployment staying at 3.9 percent and wages up another 0.3 percent. The shutdown shouldn’t have a huge impact as BLS will count furloughed workers receiving back pay as employed.
Story Continued Below
But it could be a signal that the economy is slowing down a bit and White House hopes for sustained 3 percent growth could be wishful thinking. By the time 2020 rolls around, job creation could be slowing to around 100K per month. More below.
China talks end with a fizzle — Two days of high-level talks concluded with an Oval Office meeting and some mildly positive tweets and comments from President Donald Trump. But there was no concrete progress on the “complete deal” the president says he wants.
Trump talked about an upcoming meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at which he hopes to complete a deal. But there’s very little chance Trump is going to get something both sweeping and verifiable by then. But the president still wants a deal to goose markets so he’ll probably find a way to declare victory. More below.
Herman Cain for the Fed? — Former pizza magnate, failed presidential candidate, gold standard enthusiast and accused sexual harasser Herman Cain is on a long list of potential nominees a Fed Board seat, per NEC Director Larry Kudlow. The White House is in no rush to fill the two open seats. More below.
** A message from the National Association of REALTORS®: Talks on GSE reform are gaining momentum in Washington, as federal control of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is now in its 11th year. Join NAR for a comprehensive Housing Finance Reform policy forum on Thursday, February 7, at the Grand Hyatt. Register today at nar.realtor/events/nar-policy-forum. **
GOOD FRIDAY MORNING — Welcome to February! 14 days until the next shutdown. Email me at [email protected] and follow me on Twitter @morningmoneyben. Email Aubree Eliza Weaver at [email protected] and follow her on Twitter @AubreeEWeaver.
THIS MORNING ON POLITICO PRO FINANCIAL SERVICES — Patrick Temple-West on trial lawyers and big asset managers’ are scramble to stop the SEC from allowing companies to block shareholder lawsuits. To get Morning Money every day before 6 a.m., please contact Pro Services at (703) 341-4600 or [email protected].
Jobs report at 8:30 a.m. … ISM manufacturing at 10:00 a.m. expected to rise to 54.3 from 54.1 … University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 a.m. expected to drop sharply to 90.7 from 98.3
TWEET DU JOUR from Bloomberg’s @JenniferJJacobs: “SCOOP: Trump is considering Herman Cain, the former pizza company CEO who ran for president in 2012, for a seat on the Federal Reserve board, five sources told me.”
REACT — Cumberland Advisors’ David Kotok emails: “I can guess at the political analysis behind the proposed appointment. He is a complete unknown on monetary policy. But maybe the toppings will become more interesting when the FOMC orders pizza for lunch?”
TRANSITIONS — Per POLITICO’s Katy O’Donnell: “The Federal Housing Finance Agency has a new chief of staff: John Roscoe, a special assistant to the president in the White House Office of Presidential Personnel. Roscoe will report to acting director Joseph Otting starting Monday.”
MORE ON JOBS DAY — Moody’s Mark Zandi emails: “Employment should increase by 180,000 jobs in January. The government shutdown is responsible for shaving 30,000 jobs from mostly government payrolls. …
“Abstracting from the vagaries of the data, the job market gracefully navigated the government shutdown. … However, policymakers should not take from this that government shutdowns don’t matter to the economy … Business and consumer confidence did suffer, and it wouldn’t be too much longer before nervous businesses scaled by their investment and hiring, and consumers their spending.”
Pantheon’s Ian Shepherdson: “We have few doubts that labor demand remained strong in January, but the chance of a repeat of December’s 312K payroll gain is slim. It’s true that businesses appear to be searching for huge numbers of people, but it’s also true that since mid-2017 they haven’t been able to find as many as they’d like.”
TRUMP EYES “COMPREHENSIVE” CHINA TRADE DEAL — Our Doug Palmer and Adam Behsudi: “Trump said … talks with China aimed at defusing a bilateral trade war were making good progress, but top aides directly involved in the negotiations stressed there are many difficult issues that need to be worked out.
“‘I think we’re going to make a deal with China. But it’s going to be a very comprehensive deal. We’re going to cover everything, OK,’ Trump told reporters … However, a White House statement issued hours later stressed there are still big differences between the two sides. It also reiterated that a March 1 deadline set two months ago in Buenos Aires to reach an agreement still ‘represents a hard deadline.’”
HOUSE PANEL TO WADE INTO TRUMP TAX RETURNS ISSUE — Our Bernie Becker: “A House panel next week will be the first to wade into Democrats’ efforts to ensure that … Trump and his successors release their tax returns, setting the stage for possible political and legal battles to come.
“The House Ways and Means Oversight Subcommittee specifically called next Thursday’s hearing to discuss a legislative proposal that would require presidents, vice presidents and major party nominees for those offices to release a decade’s worth of tax returns. But the hearing is likely to also touch on the Ways and Means Committee’s efforts to acquire and release Trump’s returns” Read more.
WARREN SETS FEB. 9 ANNOUNCEMENT — Our Natasha Korecki: “Sen. Elizabeth Warren is expected to formally announce her plans to run for president next week in an event that follows her New Year’s Eve exploratory-bid filing.
“In a message posted Thursday evening on Instagram, Facebook and Twitter, the Massachusetts Democrat told supporters to expect a major announcement on Feb. 9. … After the Feb. 9 event, Warren is expected to immediately ramp up her campaign travel schedule.” Read more.
TRUMP calls the congressional talks on border security funding a “waste of time” in a NYT interview and suggested he’s ready to declare a national emergency.
Get “Freezin’ for a Reason” with Special Olympics DC. Support more than 1,600 Special Olympics DC athletes and take the “Polar Plunge” on Saturday, Feb. 2. Proceeds provide sports, health and inclusion programs that benefit both children and adults with intellectual disabilities in the District. Visit www.dcpolarplunge.org to register as an individual, as a team or join an existing team.
S&P 500 SEES BEST JANUARY IN YEARS — AP’s Damian Troise and Alex Veiga: “Wall Street got its mojo back in January after finishing 2018 with its worst December since 1931. Stocks finished higher Thursday, closing out the month with the best gain for the S&P 500 index since October 2015. A series of strong corporate earnings helped power the monthlong rally, which followed a dismal December that nearly brought the benchmark index into a bear market, meaning a decline of 20 percent from a recent peak.” Read more.
But it was a rough day for Amazon — Bloomberg’s Spencer Soper: “Amazon.com Inc. shares dropped after the e-commerce giant gave a tepid first-quarter sales forecast and raised concerns about rising costs, slowing retail growth and a murky outlook for its business in India. Sales will be $56 billion to $60 billion in the current period, the company said Thursday, compared with analysts’ average estimate of $61 billion.” Read more.
WORLD’S LARGEST PENSION FUND TAKES A HIT — Bloomberg’s Keiko Ujikane and Shigeki Nozawa: “The world’s largest pension fund may have incurred a record loss after a global equity rout last quarter pummeled an asset class that made up about half of its investments. Total assets at Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund may have dropped to 155.6 trillion yen ($1.43 trillion) as of the end of December … That would be a record decline of about 14 trillion yen from the end of September.” Read more.
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM TODAY’S JOBS REPORT — NYT’s Ben Casselman: “American employers have added jobs for 99 consecutive months, easily a record, and most economists expect the streak to hit 100 with Friday’s report. The unemployment rate is under 4 percent for the first time since the Clinton administration, and wage growth — long a weak point — has been picking up. December’s job figures, which will be revised on Friday, were among the strongest of the entire recovery.
“But the shutdown idled hundreds of thousands of federal workers for much of January, and left hundreds of thousands of others working without pay. Ripple effects hit everyone from unpaid government contractors to Washington lunch spots that lost business.” Read more.
CENTRAL BANKS SHIFT ON STIMULUS PLANS — WSJ’s Brian Blackstone: “A slowing global economy and low inflation has central banks around the world rethinking plans to gradually pull back financial stimulus from markets and the banking system.
“The role reversal could support the economy in the months ahead and bolster markets and sectors like housing and autos. Central bankers have geared their messages toward pausing on tightening steps rather than imminently launching new stimulus. That is because they doubt the global economy is going beyond a slowdown toward outright recession.” Read more.
ITALY SLIDES INTO RECESSION — NYT’s Jack Ewing and Jason Horowitz: “Italy has officially slipped into recession, and Europe as a whole is essentially at an economic standstill, raising anxieties that the world is on the verge of a significant slowdown. …
“The Italian economy shrank 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018 compared with the third quarter, Istat, the Italian statistics agency, said. It was the second quarter in a row of declining output and that, by one common definition, means a recession. It is Italy’s third since 2008.” Read more.
** A message from the National Association of REALTORS®: Talks on GSE reform are gaining momentum in Washington, as federal control of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is now in its 11th year. Join NAR for a comprehensive Housing Finance Reform policy forum on Thursday, February 7, at the Grand Hyatt. The event will be held from 9AM-2PM. No-cost attendance includes lunch and a cocktail hour following the event. Register today at nar.realtor/events/nar-policy-forum.
The Forum brings together hundreds of industry stakeholders, policymakers, academic experts and financial regulators to discuss the challenges and opportunities facing the future of the housing finance system. With a vested interest in protecting the nation’s housing market, NAR continues to examine and advocate for potential approaches to housing finance reform efforts that would be most beneficial for consumers and promote broader credit access.
Featured panels will focus on lessons learned from the housing crisis and innovative solutions for the future role of the GSEs. Participants will include former Chairmen Jeb Hensarling and Barney Frank. **
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