#August to November 2019 Month Calendar

[starburstmlp]

Luz is actually 13 at the start of the Owl House and here's why (Owl House timeline analysis).

Please read!!! 👉👈

Ok, so I've been rewatching the owl house recently through Danny Motta's videos on YouTube, and it got me to thinking about the years the owl house takes place in and the logistics of the BI and Earth time zones. So, I made an analysis:

*SPOILERS BELOW*

First off, let's talk about Luz.

When you look up Luz's age online, it says that Luz is canonically 14 years old in the show. But when you look at the events of the show (*Spoilers sorry*), we see that Luz is celebrating her birthday on the BI, and we see Eda say this line:

Ok, no big deal, right? Well, if we look at the events of the show, we know that the kids were in the Human realm for a while. It was fall in the human realm when the kids arrived after the day of Unity. After the montage of them in the Human realm, it is shown to be Halloween. This means that they would have been in the Human realm for a little under a year, meaning it doesn't make sense that Eda would say that line because Luz would have already turned 15 during that year in the Human realm while the collector was controlling the BI.

So, for this timeline, I'm gonna reference @drachenfalter's calendar analysis (check it out, it's great). In this analysis, they use this picture of a BI calendar.

We see here that the calendar has 42 days in a month, and so their analysis shows that the BI would have 9 months in a year instead of 12, meaning the time zones don't change, but the calendar is longer (hence, why Luz can text her mom in the same time zone).

For Luz's birthday, there is no specific birthday stated for her, but for the sake of the post, I'm gonna head cannon it to be April 8th because that is the day Watching and dreaming came out. Watching and dreaming came out in 2023, and there is a 3-year timeskip at the end, with Luz having graduated High school already in the human realm and preparing to start college in the BI. If we assume that the timeskip takes place in that modern day in 2023, then that would mean that Belos's final defeat takes place in 2020, and the start of the show would have taken place not in 2020, when the show came out, but in 2019, 1 year prior, explaining Luz's narration at the end.

With that in mind, here is my timeline Headcannon.

Luz- 13 years old at the start of the show finishing 8th grade.

Time: Mid-May or beginning of June 2019.

Luz birthday: April 8th (H.C.)

Luz turns 13, finished 8th grade, Camilla sends luz to camp; Luz leaves for BI in Mid-May (March for BI), 2019.

Luz learns magic, attends Hexside, dates Amity in the span of 5 BI months, 7 Earth Months. (It is fall when Luz finds Vee and returns home after the day of Unity).

Luz fights Belos and goes back to the Human realm in November 2019 (September for BI).

The Hexsquad go live in human realm for 1 calendar year, give or take.

- Luz goes back to school, the gang experiences the different seasons in the Human realm montage in Thanks to Them, time jump ends at Halloween.

Luz turns 14 during this time in 2020, and is a sophomore in high school in Thanks to Them (reminder: there is no pandemic in the Owl house universe)

The Hexsquad fights Belos again and goes back to the BI on Halloween in 2020 (End of August/Beg. of September for BI).

The Hexsquad saves the BI in November 2020 (September for BI).

*Timeskip 3 years later*

Luz turns 15 in 2021, spends it rebuilding the Isles.

Luz turns 16 in 2022

Luz turns 17 in 2023, reaches the end of senior year, graduates' high school in the human realm with Vee.

The finale takes place on April 8th, 2023 (February for BI).

- Luz turns 17, celebrates her "King-ceañera".

Luz goes to magic university in the BI in 2023.

- Luz's move in date for school is shown to be August 21st in "Watching and Dreaming", which would be June for the BI, meaning that Luz will have left for school 3-4 months early since she is also shown to be packing in the episode.

Ok, so one last thing to note, with this timeline, the finale would take place in 2023, and Luz would be celebrating her 17th birthday in the BI. This means that Luz would have still been a legal minor when starting college. My head cannon is that Camilla allowed Luz to stay with Eda and Raine for the 3-4 months before starting school, and constantly checked in on Luz during her time in the dorms before turning 18 (as well as long after, of course:)). Eda and Raine would likely also coparent to make sure that Luz was keeping up with her move in process and magic studies.

Anyway, that's my timeline analysis for the Owl house! Hope y'all like it! (I also have other Head cannons for the ages of the other Hexsquad members that go with this timeline if y'all wanna know).

[virtual-winter]

It's been 10 years since I first watched Frozen!🌻❄️⛏️☃️🦌

(Swedish DVD-copy of Frozen)

November 20th, 2014. It seems like forever ago. I remember watching this movie through my desktop ASUS PC (remember when computers used to have actual DVD-drives?) on a by today's standards pretty crappy Philips monitor. It didn't matter. The movie was like nothing else I had seen before. Even though I don't even have a sibling and can't fully relate to the conflict, Anna and Elsa's adventure is IMO one of the best stories ever told💕

I was 22 back then. A young man and totally in love with this Disney movie. Now I'm 32 and it continues to be among my favourite movies of all time. Even now, ten years later, I still live and breathe Frozen every day! It is a part of who I became and it is the way I wish to remain 😄

I have become a devoted fan of all things Frozen and I'm trying my best to be a part-time Frozen-analyst, mapmaker, worldbuilder and collector. I'm also known for using too many emotes and exclamation marks!

Below, I have tried to summarise some important and meaningful keepsakes and events from the past ten years. I hope you enjoy scrolling!✨✨✨

I believe this was the first ever Frozen-related pic that I saved (it's the oldest in my album) (April 2015)

I was equally in love with the OUAT Frozen arc and no one can tell me Georgina and Elizabeth were anything but perfect for their roles (April 2015)

🥹🥹🥹

(March 2015)

In just a couple of years we saw the franchise grow (did anyone else prefer the original logo for the musical?) (February 2016)

The official announcement we'd all been waiting for (April 2017)

The architect in me loved the castle! (2017)

I mean, who could ever forget this moment? (December 2018)

AJHFSJASJFKAGKJFGSKFDSGSJF!?!?!?!?!?!? (February 2019)

What are those????? (February 2019)

My first piece of "big" Frozen merch (April 2019)

I made a custom calendar just to count down the remaining days to Frozen II (I also avoided spoilers for the last 6 1/2 months) (December 2019)

🥹🥰😭

(December 2019)

Perfectly balanced, as it should be (February 2020)

Me collecting stuff! (February 2020)

Me going crazy saving as much Frozen content as possible 😅 (August 2020)

I joined r/Frozen (June 2021)

I started my deep-dive into Arendelle's geography in 2021 which ultimately lead to "An odyssey through Frozen geography", the first of many fandom projects! (July 2021)

Together with a group of equally dedicated Frozen nerds fans, I helped building the @arendelle-archives server and later tumblr-blog! (2021)

Collecting more things! (October 2021)

A Frozen comic writer responded to my reddit post?😲(December 2021)

I started developing ideas for a Frozen fanfic (2022)

Frozen III-announcement! Finally! (February 2023)

My Norway-trip of 2023. Without a doubt one of the most beautiful destinations on Earth and a must-go for anyone who wants to visit the real Arendelle!!! (July 2023)

I continue to delve into more map-related stuff in Wonderdraft (May 2024)

Together with the rest of the wonderful folks over at @frozen10fanzine, I helped create and design a fanzine summarising the memories of Frozen fans from the past decade! (July 2024)

A slice of my current Frozen collection! Some figures were very kindly donated to me by @yumeka-sxf 🙌 (July 2024)

And lastly, from today: the first snow of the season❄️🩵

If you made it this far, thank you for scrolling😅

Finally, a little shout-out to friends and acquaintances I've made through the likes of reddit, discord and tumblr in the past few years:

@bigfrozenfan @yumeka-sxf @greatqueenanna @queenritaofarendelle @saiten-gefroren @snowflaketale12 @cloudberriesforaqueen @theartoffrozen @secretsofthestorymakers

A big thank you also to the whole @arendelle-archives and @frozen10fanzine - teams! Y'all continue to inspire me!

[dragonagefanevents]

Dragon Age Fan Event Listings

The beauty of fan events is that they are run by fans.

Including you.

▸What are the types of fan events? - #education

▸Start a new event! - #how tos (coming soon)

▸Ask Box - send us advice, or ask for it!

▸Blog Tag List

Below is a list of all Dragon Age fan-run events we can find. The links should bring you to the most recent iteration of the event. Where possible, the time period the event covers is listed next to the event.

Want to get an event listed? Check out the link and submit. Look here for multi-fandom events, or more events in general.

Event Masterlist - #compendium

Bangs

25k Big Bang (July - November)

10k Big Bang (March - April)

Dragon Age Reverse Bang

Exchanges

Arlathan Exchange (April - June)

DA Polyshipping (August - November)

Handers Exchange (March - May)

Templartations Exchange (March - May)

Black Emporium Rare Pair Exchange (June - September)

Platonic Ideal Gen Fic Exchange (December - February)

Smutquisition (January - March)

Theme Weeks/Months

Leliana Week (Nov 27 - Dec 4)

Kink Memes

Dragon Age Kink Meme (Dreamwidth) | DAO | DA2 | DAI

Zines

Dragon Age Flower Zine (Processing Period)

Wanderers Zine (Creation Period)

Dragon Age OC Zine (Mod Apps Open)

Alistair Zine (Creation Period)

Faith: A Leliana Fanzine

Special Events

Dragon Age Drunk Writing Circle

Dragon Age Annual (2025 Digital Orders Open)

Dragon Age Create-A-Thon

Reddit Weekly Dragon Age Writing Prompts

Unofficial Dragon Age Day (Dec 4)

Solavellan Day (April 11)

Past Events

Retired Bangs

DragonAgeBB (last: 2015; formerly on LJ and elsewhere)

Retired Exchanges

Demands of the Qun (Qunari)

A Paragon of Their Kind (DA Dwarves)

Solas Lovers

Hightown Funk (Varric/Hawke)

Retired Theme Weeks/Months

Autumn of Anders (Anders Appreciation Event)

Dalish Week

30 Days of Dorian (Dorian Appreciation Event)

Dragon Age Fan Week (2013)

City Elf Week (2024)

Cullen Appreciation Week (2019)

Cullen Week (2021)

14 Days of DA Lovers

Fenris Appreciation Month (2017)

Krem Week 2024

Rylen Appreciation Week (2018)

Sera Appreciation Week (2019)

Sera Appreciation Week (2024)

Sub!Solas Week (2016)

Tranquil Week

Zevwarden Week

Past Zines

Adoribull Fairytales

Age of Romance Zine (Incomplete)

ApprovesGreatly (Incomplete)

Andoralis Zine

Arcana: A Dragon Age Zine

Arlathvhen Zine (Incomplete)

Beyond the Veil Zine (Zine)

Bring Down the Sky Bioware Fanzine

Dragon Age 2 10th Anniversary Zine (Zine)

Dragon Age Codex Zine & Myths and Legends Zine

Fortitudo Dorian Artbook

Good for Each Other (Adoribull Zine)

In Peace, Vigilance Zine

Insufficient Skill Fanzine

Legend Mark Zine

Lotus and Root OC Zine

Love Across Thedas Zine (Zine)

Na Via Lerno Victoria (Fenris Zine)

Patron of the Arts Zine

Rebel Hearts Handers Zine (Zine)

Road to the Imperium Zine

Solasmancy Zine

Sunlight (Anders Zine)

The Coming Storm Zine (Ukrainian Zine)

The Dragon Age Zine (Russian Zine)

The Keeper's Codex Fairy Tale Zine

The Unsung Dragon Age Zine

The Zevran Zine (incomplete)

Thedosian Archives (incomplete)

to be happy (FenHawke Zine)

Wicked Eyes: A Dragon Age Finery Zine

Year of the Mabari (Incomplete)

Other Past Events

Dragon Age Calendar 2018

Dragon Age Calendar 2021

For Fans by Fans - Fan Forge

[not-yden]

Here's a few details regarding the timeline of the figure skaters AU. I hope this makes sense because I was going insane while thinking about this.

The NQS are held from June to September. Then the sectionals for ice dance are in October, US Finals in November, and US Championships in January. These are based on the 2020 USFS qualifying structure*

Like I said, I am not American so I'm not familiar with how the school system works. Though I found that each semester lasts for 5 months. I saw that some schools open mid July so that's where I based Nevermore’s calendar:

1st Sem: July to December

2nd Sem: January to June

So for plot purposes, Tyler got injured in August and Enid transferred to Nevermore early September.

* the AU will use the 2019-2020 USFS season structure to make the story feasible later on. I'll explain why in another post

[blazingdarkness]

Blazer's Glowfic Stats

✧It's my fourth glowbirthday!✧ And what better way to celebrate could there be than making a giant spreadsheet based off the output records?

(I think I started this sheet around my first anniversary, but it was unwieldy and desperately needed an overhaul and some updating. Now each year has its own sheet instead of all being in one that was a monster to scroll through! Huzzah!)

I'm mostly doing this out of vanity and not because I particularly expect it to be interesting to anyone else. Also data entry is fun.

(You can really tell where I started writing with Alicorn, can't you!)

Let's start with the basics: in my four years as a glowfic author, I've written a total of 280,184 words. I have 48 threads (three of which are marked complete), 26 proper templates (not including Zinglets, Zettings, or the one-off cats), and 153 character accounts. I have 103 galleries with a total of 2,300 icons (what a nice round number! I didn't even rig it it just came out that way I swear).

My template with the most instances is Alphabet Soup with 16, though Jida (15) and Starchild (14) are close behind. (There are 22 untemplated cat accounts but those of course don't count.)

My longest thread so far is of course your stare was holdin', which as of today is 128,638 words long, with 79,154 of those being written by me.

Here's a little baby table of my high scores (or, the most I'd ever written in a single day, midnight to midnight, at each time).

Out of the past 1,461 days, I've written at least a little on 828 of them, which is 56.7%! On 51 of those days (3.5% of the total; 6.2% of days I wrote at all), I wrote at least a thousand words.

There's no calendar month which I didn't write on at least one day of, though I've gone for longer than one at a stretch without tagging: 37 days across July and August of 2019. Conversely, my longest streak of consecutive tagging was 64 days, from September to November of 2021. Here's another tinysheet of my streak high scores:

By the calendar, there's only one month I've tagged on every day of, which is of course October 2021.

Here are each of the charts, day by day and per year:

(You can REALLY tell where I started writing with Alicorn, can't you!!)

(Love the one dot from the day of the moon shadeling princess thread wrecking the scale. Good times <3)

And here we are! This is lacking today's wordcount, even though technically I have another two hours or so before the anniversary of my first tag. It's just easier to count in years going forward if I only do it day-by-day, and anyways most of my count today was sonnets, so it doesn't make much difference. :Þ Speaking of years of going forward and writing glowfic, here's hoping for many more of those! It's been a fun and creatively fulfilling four.

And to wrap things up, here's the total over time with month-sized units. Pretty close to 300k! Not a lot when I compare it to nanos or whatever but I'm proud of it. Thanks for reading <3

[gumnut-logic]

Hi! I’m getting into Thunderbirds fics and was thinking about writing some myself. I saw that you ran a challenge at one point and was wondering if there was any event calendar the fandom is using. Or are there any events at all? I wasn’t sure where to find any.

Hi and welcome to the Thunderfam! :D

There is no strict calendar, but a few events do recur at will.

At the moment we are in the middle of Fanart Appreciation Month, which has occurred in January the previous two years as well. The idea being to reblog lots of artworks to give our artists some recognition.

February has been Fab Five Feb in 2019 and 2020, but was missed last year. I haven't done the call out as to whether the Thunderfam want that one this year yet. It is usually a six week challenge with a focus on the five brothers plus another character which changes each year.

Some time in March/April there might be a Easter gift fic event.

Somewhere between April and August there is sometimes a random challenge event. There was nothing last year, but in previous years there has been Sensory Sunday , Earth & Sky Week and an Olympics challenge.

We also celebrate each of the Tracy boys' birthdays - Gordon 14 Feb, Alan 12 March, Scott 4 July (?), Virgil 15 August (always a big one for me :D ) and John in October. Other cast members also get birthday celebrations at various times of the year.

September and October are usually taken up by external challenges like Sicktember and Whumptober.

We did have a Thunderfam November event - Fluffember - but last year an external event was picked up so Fluffember didn't run, but it did run 2019, 2020 and 2021.

December is left to Tag Team Secret Santa.

There have also been random other events over the past few years and I have no doubt there were others before I joined the fandom in 2018. Due to the sudden rise of Covid in 2020 we started International Rescue & Relief, a fluff prompt challenge which is technically still going, but I haven't mentioned it for ages.

Plus there are always writing prompts or question lists flying around that get picked up by whoever wants to play.

Thunderfam, if I have forgotten anything, please chime in. It is late here and my brain is usually pretty unreliable.

Anyways, welcome, thank you for asking. I hope you have fun in thunderfam :D

Nutty

(so do you have a favourite Tracy brother? :D )

[thedawningofthehour]

Merry pi day!!! What're the other boys birthdays and why did Splinter pick those? What about Draxum's choice on Dec 10th for Gale's?

HAPPY PI DAY! I asked my mom if I should make a pie and she said no lol. It's just us two (and the bird, who is not allowed pie) so we wouldn't be able to finish it, but I still kind of wanted to make pie.

Donnie and Leo's is March 10th, and I picked that literally because for some reason I saw multiple pieces of fanart where they had that birthday and thought it was just something the fandom agreed on. Apparently not. In retrospect, it would have been funny to make their birthday Pi Day or the Ides of March. Though when I looked up the calendar for March 2019, Pi Day was the Thursday after Daylight Savings Time, which is the day they realize Donnie is missing. So that would have been super depressing. (also yeah it is the anniversary of that today, shit, I should have held the chapter for today)

I haven't decided on concrete dates for the other boys, but Raph is early August and Mikey is late November. This was chosen so both Raph and Mikey are the 'same age' as the twins for a few months out of the year. Splints's birthday is somewhere in January, and April's is around the end of October.

Originally I gave Galois my own birthday, which is the 15th. I felt like that was narcissistic and made it ten days earlier lol. I have no idea why Draxum chose that-it's not when spiny softshells hatch and it's not their mutation day, since that didn't happen until the next year. But he did lie to Galois on how he was 'born' in the first place. I just wanted him to have a December birthday, if I'm being honest.

[sharoscylla]

this is mostly for me to use when writing None Sword, since that au goes through both seasons of rottmnt, but having watched the show a bunch of times I feel like the actual order of events is different than what we see

mystic mayhem happens I think right before the school year starts or right after when it's still hot as hell, april is 16, raph is 15, leo and donnie are 14, and mikey is 13

repo man is happening at the same time as Hypno pt deaux, which is during the homecoming dance, so that's about 6-8 weeks later in mid to late October

shell in a cell and minotaur maze happen before fast and the furriest and mascot melee

down with the sickness might be as late in the season as post Late Fee

Gumbus and Mrs Cuddles are both very Halloween Episode to me so I feel p certain they're happening the weekend just before Halloween 2018, which was a Wednesday

Bullhop stays with them for a little over 2 weeks, based on what I remember of the screenshots I think it's January 8th through the 25th?

However I feel v strongly that Late Fee happens before evil league of mutants, which happens somewhere in late November or early December

Now I have to sit and think bc April does have a birthday in Season 1 but by the end of Season 1 she's been 18 long enough to get her crane operator license, so it doesn't make sense for season 1 to take place in less than 2 calendar years... but we know that evil league of mutants takes place on the 13th anniversary of the turtles mutation so it either needs to take place MUCH earlier in the timeline or we need to disregard any canon reference to April being 16 during season 1. if she starts the season as a 17 year old then the timeline works for season 1 being late August through March 20th

I am not willing to entertain the idea that april exists in a universe where you don't have to be 18 to get a crane operator license in New York! sorry!

I also feel like mind meld and truffle happen before evil league of mutants for reasons I can't get into now

snow day and Shadow of evil happen in january imo

Man v Sewer is clearly a spring break episode so I'm putting it in mid March right before the end of the season, maybe even the last episode before Mama Train

and obviously insane in the mama train-end game-many unhappy returns happen over a 3 day period but we know End Game and the beginning of MUR happen specifically in baseball season so the earliest they could be is March 20th, which was the first day of baseball season in 2019

anyway I have to ponder this because my HEART tells me this was just a bonkers 8 or 9 month period so April's canon age can't be right for ANY point in the show

[kylesvariouslistsandstuff]

The other day, it was announced that READY OR NOT is getting a sequel, with leading star Samara Weaving returning.

I really dug the first movie, which utilized the deadly hide-and-seek game in a rich family's abode so well, all the actors just having a great time. In addition to that, I feel it has a perfect final minute or so. Searchlight released the original, way back in 2019. It was filmed in about a month, too. October-November of 2018 to be exact, followed by a premiere in July 2019, and general release shortly thereafter.

Disney recently filled next year's early August slot with FREAKIER FRIDAY, so I wonder if READY OR NOT 2 films sometime soon. Next month or so, and being a horror movie with a small budget, likely banged out in a short period of time... And then, released in a vacant later-in-the-year slot. Hmmm, 9/12/2025 then? We'll see...

I still think a big change in Disney's 2025 slate is yet to come: BLADE moving out of 11/7/2025 and into 2026, somewhere.

That could mean FANTASTIC 4: FIRST STEPS vacating 7/25/2025 for BLADE's current slot, giving it some more room and spacing it well enough from Marvel's other warm weather period release THUNDERBOLTS*. Maybe FREAKIER FRIDAY debuts earlier in late July, and READY OR NOT 2 takes its place...

Again, we shall see... But the board is almost full if READY OR NOT 2 gets a release date for next year anytime soon... IN THE BLINK OF AN EYE, which I previously thought would be penciled in for next year, is a confirmed Hulu release, so that's ruled out entirely and makes a space for a possible RON2 release. Sometimes these things get determined within the calendar year anyways, so we're a bit of a ways off regarding both RON2 and BLADE and a few other titles on Disney's slate.

[wikiuntamed]

Top 5 @Wikipedia pages from a year ago: Thursday, 23rd March 2023

Welcome, bienvenue, dobrodošli, velkomin 🤗 What were the top pages visited on @Wikipedia (23rd March 2023) 🏆🌟🔥?

1️⃣: ChatGPT "ChatGPT (Chat Generative Pre-trained Transformer) is a chatbot developed by OpenAI and launched on November 30, 2022. Based on a large language model, it enables users to refine and steer a conversation towards a desired length, format, style, level of detail, and language. Successive prompts and..."

Image by

Original:

OpenAI

 

Vector:

Zhing Za

2️⃣: John Wick: Chapter 4 "John Wick: Chapter 4 (released in Japan as John Wick: Consequences) is a 2023 American neo-noir action thriller film directed and co-produced by Chad Stahelski and written by Shay Hatten and Michael Finch. The sequel to John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum (2019) and the fourth installment in the John..."

3️⃣: Ramadan "Ramadan (Arabic: رَمَضَان, romanized: Ramaḍān [ra.ma.dˤaːn]; also spelled Ramazan, Ramzan, Ramadhan, or Ramathan) is the ninth month of the Islamic calendar, observed by Muslims worldwide as a month of fasting (sawm), prayer (salah), reflection, and community. A commemoration of Muhammad's first..."

Image licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0? by

Zeynel Cebeci

Meoin Motlagh

Gabby Canonizado from Dubai, United Arab Emirates

Rhmtdns

Miansari66

Guillaume Paumier

JeanHavoc

4️⃣: Cleopatra "Cleopatra VII Thea Philopator (Koinē Greek: Κλεοπάτρα Θεά Φιλοπάτωρ lit. Cleopatra "father-loving goddess"; 70/69 BC – 10 August 30 BC) was Queen of the Ptolemaic Kingdom of Egypt from 51 to 30 BC, and its last active ruler. A member of the Ptolemaic dynasty, she was a descendant of its founder..."

Image by Louis le Grand

5️⃣: Shou Zi Chew "Shou Zi Chew (Chinese: 周受资, born 1 January 1983), also known as Chew Shou Zi, is a Singaporean businessman and entrepreneur who has served as chief executive officer of a Chinese company ByteDance which operates online video platform TikTok since 2021. ..."

Image licensed under CC BY 4.0? by Photographer: Lukasz Kobus

[ailtrahq]

The bears are gaining strength for both crypto and stock markets, as the major US indexes now confirming downtrends. Furthermore, October is usually a red month for markets, so there may be more pains before gains.  US stock markets have been in decline for the past two months, and the move is likely to continue into October.  Will Crypto Markets Follow? The Nasdaq has fallen below its previous low in August, forming a new lower low this week. The downtrend, which has been confirmed according to crypto analyst “Cold Blooded Shiller,” began in mid-July.  Since then, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index has dropped 9% to 13,063, where it settled at the close of trading on September 26.  Nasdaq 2023 performance. Source: X/@ColdBloodShill Additionally, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen by 5.6% since the beginning of August.  Furthermore, the broader S&P 500 Index has mirrored the moves. It has fallen almost 7% since the downtrend began at the beginning of July to 4,273 after the bell on Tuesday. Moreover, the S&P 500 is now down 340 points since the Fed removed “recession” from their forecast, according to the Kobeissi Letter. It added that the Fed marked the exact high in the S&P 500, which just hit its lowest level since June: “Since then, rate cut expectations were pushed out by a year and corporate bankruptcies hit their highest levels since the pandemic.” S&P 500 3 months. Source: X/@KobeissiLetter  A number of high-profile banks aped the Fed in dropping their recession predictions, yet the markets appear to be defiant.  Crypto markets have been slightly correlated with tech stocks this year but have remained in consolidation for most of it.  Following an initial spurt of growth in the first quarter, crypto markets have been flat since mid-March. Moreover, they have dropped 19% since their 2023 high in mid-April, also exhibiting a downtrend. A Red October?  October is historically the most volatile month of the year for US and global markets. With a downtrend already confirmed, things will likely slide deeper into the red next month, including crypto.  October’s record of market crashes makes it the most feared month on the financial calendar. The Bank Panic of 1907, the Stock Market Crash of 1929, and Black Monday 1987 all happened during the month of October. In the 2022 bear market, crypto markets were flat for most of October, gaining marginally towards the end of the month. The bull market of 2021 saw large gains for crypto in October, but 2020 was similar to 2022.  2019 saw a brief pump at the end of October, but all gains were lost the following month. The bear market of 2018 was another flat October.  If history rhymes, crypto markets will remain flat next month, but be aware that November is usually much more volatile for this asset class.  Source

[f1]

F1 returning to China in 2024 as part of major schedule change

Shanghai in China last hosted a Formula 1 race during the 2019 season China is set to return to the Formula 1 calendar for the first time since the pandemic in a major revision of the schedule for 2024. The season starts with races in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia to be held on Saturdays, because of the impact of the Islamic holy month of Ramadan. In the quest for greater sustainability, the Japanese race moves to 7 April from its usual autumn date. And Azerbaijan will be twinned with Singapore in September. The calendar features what would be a record 24 races - exactly the same number as were due to be held this year before the cancellation of the Chinese and Emilia-Romagna Grands Prix. Earlier this year, Australian Grand Prix organisers announced that Saudi Arabia would hold the opening race of the 2024 season. But F1 has found a way to fit both Bahrain and Jeddah in before Melbourne by making the Middle Eastern events Saturday night races. Ramadan starts on the evening of 10 March, the day after the Saudi event. China was due to return this year but had to be cancelled because of the uncertainty over the Covid situation in the country at the start of the year, when there were riots as a result of continued social restrictions. These have now been lifted. The move towards greater regionalisation - which is an attempt to reduce carbon emissions from flights as F1 strives to become net-zero carbon by 2030 - has been partly stymied by Canadian organisers resisting F1's attempts to twin the Montreal race with Miami in May. Instead, the Canadian Grand Prix retains its traditional June date, forcing teams to fly across the Atlantic twice in just over a month. F1 chairman Stefano Domenicali said: "Our journey to a more sustainable calendar will continue in the coming years as we further streamline operations as part of our Net Zero 2030 commitment." FIA president Mohammed Ben Sulayem added: "We want to make the global spectacle of Formula 1 more efficient in terms of environmental sustainability and more manageable for the travelling staff who dedicate so much of their time to our sport." Pre-season testing is due to be held in Bahrain on 21-23 February but those dates are still subject to approval from the FIA world motorsport council. Full 2024 F1 calendar 29 February - 2 March - Bahrain 7-9 March - Saudi Arabia 22-24 March - Australia 5-7 April - Japan 19-21 April - China 3-5 May - Miami 17-19 May - Emilia-Romagna 24-26 May - Monaco 7-9 June - Canada 21-23 June - Spain 28-30 June - Austria 5-7 July - United Kingdom 19-21 July - Hungary 26-28 July - Belgium 23-25 August - Netherlands 30 August - 1 September - Italy 13-15 September - Azerbaijan 20-22 September - Singapore 18-20 October - USA (Austin) 25-27 October - Mexico City 1-3 November - Brazil 21-23 November - Las Vegas 29 November - 1 December - Qatar 6-8 December - Abu Dhabi via BBC Sport - Formula 1 http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/

[sadisweetomi]

Will lunar rover Jade Rabbit have company for the next Lantern Festival?

These missions are stellar examples of human intelligence and curiosity, working together to reveal the secrets of the moon.

BEIJING, -- Yutu-2, China's operating lunar rover, ignites people's fantasies of the moon on a special day, the Lantern Festival of the Year of the Rabbit.

The festival this year falls on Sunday, the 15th day of the first month of the Chinese lunar calendar when a full moon appears.

As the closest celestial body to the Earth, the moon was the first stop for mankind to start the "interstellar era." From lunar probes, unmanned lunar vehicles to manned landing on the moon, human exploration of the moon has never stopped.

On the surface of the moon covered with large and small impact craters, a shallow track on the lunar soil extend far away -- this is the image of the lunar surface recently sent back by China's Yutu-2 lunar rover. The Chang'e-4 probe, which carried Yutu-2 to the moon, is the first human probe to achieve a soft landing on the dark side of the moon.

Yutu-2 is also the only lunar rover still in service on the moon. In operation for over four years, it has travelled nearly 1,500 meters, and released more than 940.1 gigabytes of scientific data.

A lunar rover is a probe vehicle that can move on the surface of the moon. In the 1970s, the Soviet Union and the United States respectively sent lunar rovers to land on the moon. The world's first unmanned lunar rover was the Lunokhod 1 launched by the Soviet Union. It landed in the Mare Imbrium, also called Sea of Rains, in November 1970 and worked there for about 10 months. The Soviet Union then sent the unmanned Lunokhod 2 to the Sea of Tranquility area on the moon in January 1973, and it was damaged after working for about four months.

The other three lunar rovers launched during this period were the manned lunar rovers carried by the American Apollo spacecraft 15, 16 and 17. They were used as vehicles in the early 1970s for astronauts to inspect the lunar surface, and are currently incapacitated.

Only two lunar rovers have successfully landed on the moon since then, both from China: the Yutu which landed in 2013 and the Yutu-2 in 2019.

Yutu, or Jade Rabbit, is known as the pet of Lunar Goddess Chang'e in Chinese mythology. The rabbit's common association with Earth's only natural satellite led China to name its first moon rover "Yutu."

Now, Yutu-2 is the only lunar rover in service, silently exploring the secrets of the far side of the moon among the bare rocks and craters.

China will fully promote the fourth stage of the lunar exploration program in 2023, including Chang'e-6, Chang'e-7 and Chang'e-8, said Wu Weiren, chief designer of China's lunar exploration program and academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering.

Chang'e-6 is set to "collect samples from the far side of the moon and bring them back to Earth, aiming to achieve a goal of 2,000 grams," he said.

Chang'e-7 is going to land on the moon's South Pole and has a flyover to search for water, and Chang'e-8 to be launched around 2028 will form the basis of a scientific research station at the moon's South Pole with Chang'e-7, said Wu, adding that the station will include a lunar orbiter, a lander, a rover, a flying vehicle, and multiple scientific instruments.

The missions are, on the one hand, to search for water, Wu said, and on the other hand, to explore the state of the moon's South Pole, as well as its topography, the material composition of the environment, among others.

"Jade Rabbit" may not feel lonely this year, as another "white rabbit" will come to the moon to accompany it soon. The lander of the HAKUTO-R Mission 1, Japanese for white rabbit, of the Japanese company ispace is expected to make a soft landing in the Atlas Crater of the lunar surface in April.

Danuri, South Korea's first-ever lunar orbiter, launched aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket in early August last year and arrived in lunar orbit in December. Recently, it sent back images of the moon's surface.

Lunar Flashlight, the U.S. space agency NASA's small satellite will enter into orbit around the moon this year. It will use near-infrared lasers and an onboard spectrometer to map ice in permanently shadowed regions near the Moon's South Pole. Besides, NASA is working hard to develop the Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover, or VIPER. This golf-cart-size mobile robot will land at the South Pole of the Moon in 2024 on a 100-day mission in search of water and ice.

Several other countries are also pushing ahead with lunar exploration missions this year. Chandrayaan-3, India's third lunar exploration mission, is scheduled to be launched this year after several delays. The country aims to put a lander and rover in the highlands near the South Pole of the Moon.

Russia also plans to launch its Luna-25 moon probe this year, whose main tasks include testing soft landing technologies and conducting contact studies of the lunar South Pole.

These missions are stellar examples of human intelligence and curiosity, working together to reveal the secrets of the moon.

[shumailach-blog]

Australian Visitor Visa Wait Times Have Blown Out With Some Nationalities in Limbo for Months

Tourists have been waiting three times longer to get their visas approved for travel to Australia this year compared to pre-COVID-19 times, with a new report showing specific impacts on visitors from one country.

Visa processing times for tourists and business travellers blew out this year. Source: SBS News

Travellers eager to visit Australia this year waited months to get their visas approved, with most Chinese citizens left in limbo for four months, a new report shows.The Department of Home Affairs' report on visitor visas paints a stark picture of the delays in the system after Australia's international borders were re-opened on 1 November 2021. It also shows significant changes in the numbers of tourists and business visitors applying to come to Australia - and where they are coming from - compared to before the COVID-19 pandemic.

The latest report details processing times between 1 April and 30 June 2022 and has only recently been released. It shows that 75 per cent of requests for tourist visas (subclass 600 and 676) were processed within 59 calendar days, 269 per cent longer than the 16 calendar days it took in 2019.

The processing of business visas (short stay, subclass 456) and (business visitor, subclass 600) also grew to 15 days, compared to a processing time of seven days before the emergence of COVID-19 and the shutdown of Australia's international borders on 20 March 2020.

The blowout in processing times has happened despite the number of visa applications being much lower.

Around 75 per cent of tourist visas were processed in 59 calendar days. Source: SBS News

In 2019, around 1.3 million visitor visa applications (including both tourist and business visas) were lodged between April-June, compared to just 695,343 in the same period this year.

Why Have the Wait Times Increased?

The report reveals data from April-June, mostly covering the period prior to the Albanese Government winning the federal election on 21 May.

A Department of Home Affairs spokesperson told SBS News in a statement that "processing times will take some time to improve as we work through older applications in the backlog".

The spokesperson said the department was implementing policy changes to allow more streamlined processing of visas.

"The department is managing risks carefully, targeting applicants who warrant it, while efficiently deciding applications for everyone else."

They said almost 2.8 million temporary and migration visas had been processed since 1 June, including more than 1.5 million visitor, 199,000 student and 43,000 temporary skilled applications.

The Albanese Government has announced it would provide an 

extra $36.1 million to hire up to 500 people for nine months to help address wait times. About 20 per cent of those positions had been filled by the end of September.

The department also recruited an additional 260 staff into roles supporting temporary and migration visa processing from the start of May, and officers previously focused on travel exemptions have been redirected to visa processing. But it's unclear whether staffing levels have returned to pre-COVID levels.

Some travellers wanting to visit Australia have waited months to get their visas approved.

Former Department of Immigration secretary Abul Rizvi said he didn't think there would be a recovery in processing times until the next report covering July-September, at the earliest.

"They should be being processed faster now, but I suspect the improvement will be gradual, it won't be sudden," he said.

Information on the Home Affairs website, which was last updated in August, advises travellers that processing of the tourist subclass 600 visa is taking around 63 days for 75 per cent of applicants - even longer than the average wait times seen earlier this year.

Certain countries experiencing longer delays

Processing times have been even longer for citizens of certain countries, with around 75 per cent of tourist visas from China taking 120 days to finalise in April-June this year. During the same period in 2019 most were processed in nine days.

The department did not address questions about why these visas were taking so much longer to get through the system.

Mr Rizvi said China's strict COVID-19 restrictions, including widespread lockdowns, could be making the processing of visas more difficult. Officials could also be taking a more cautious attitude towards processing visas from China, he said, pointing to a recent Nine investigation that exposed alleged visa rorting linked to criminal syndicates.

Mr Rizvi said it was likely the Australian government was aware of scams operating out of China, as well as other countries, and was scrutinising visitor visas more carefully.

The Australian Government may be scrutinising Chinese travellers more carefully. Source: AAP

When it comes to business visas, about 75 per cent of US citizens have been waiting 52 days for them to be processed, much longer than the average of 15 days.

But processing times have improved compared to April-June last year when most tourism visas took 160 days to process, and business visas were taking 342 days.

Arrivals Are Still a Long Way From Pre-pandemic Levels

The number of visitors arriving in Australia, including both tourists and business travellers, are still well down on pre-COVID-19 levels. Around 699,725 people visited Australia in 2021/22, more than nine times lower than the 6.5 million people in 2018/19.

Around 17 per cent of those travellers were from India, 15 per cent from the UK and 12 per cent from Singapore.

Back in 2018/19, 17 per cent were from China, 11 per cent from the US and 10 per cent from the UK. China now only makes up 2.3 per cent of arrivals in Australia, with just 15,855 travelling to the country in 2021/22 compared to one million travellers three years ago.

The number of visitors to Australia has dropped dramatically. Source: SBS News

However, more recent numbers show tourism could be starting to improve. In June this year, there were 219,607 visitor visa holders in Australia, only around 100,000 less than the 316,469 travellers in the country on the same date in 2019.

The number of visitor holders in Australia has increased by 396 per cent in the period from 17 December 2021, the week the borders opened to some fully vaccinated travellers, until 14 October this year.

Change in the Origin of Tourists

When it comes to visa approvals for tourists, there has also been a significant change in the source countries.

In 2018/19, before the emergence of COVID-19, the top source country was China, with 856,110 tourist visa applications granted, making up 17 per cent of the 5.2 million approvals. It was followed by the US, UK, Japan and Malaysia. India came in sixth with 250,874 visas approved.

China's numbers have since seen a dramatic drop of 95 per cent, to just 36,150 visas granted in 2021/22. India's numbers have remained fairly steady on 190,605 visas, making it the top country of origin. It made up 19 per cent of the one million tourist visas granted, followed by the UK, Singapore, US, Malaysia and China.

China was once the top country for the lodgement of visitor visas to Australia, but demand has dropped dramatically from tourists and business travellers. Source: SBS News

Singapore has risen from eighth position to third, despite approved visas dropping by 59 per cent, from 208,480 in 2018/19, to 84,792 in 2021/22.

Mr Rivzi said Australia may have remained a popular destination for Singaporeans compared to China, Hong Kong and Japan due to their strict COVID-19 restrictions.

"Singaporeans have got to spend their money holidaying somewhere and I think we're benefiting because we're seen as a relatively safe destination from a COVID perspective," he said.

The number of subclass 600 tourist visa applications granted under the Approved Destination Status from China also dropped to zero in 2020/21 and 2021/22, after being at 200,038 in 2018/19. Mr Rivzi said those visas were generally used by trusted tour groups and so may have been impacted by the lack of travel from China during the pandemic.

Business Visa Approvals Drop By 320 per Cent

The report also shows a significant shift in approvals for business visas. Back in 2018/19, around 504,782 business visas were granted. The top country was China, which had 82,026 visas approved (making up 16 per cent of the total) followed by US, UK, Japan and India.

Three years later, China has dropped to sixth on the list, with just 8,198 business visas granted. Overall 120,103 visas were approved in 2021/22.

The top country is now the US, making up 11 per cent of business visas approved in 2021/22, despite the number being four times lower than in 2018/19. The number of visas granted to the US dropped from 65,325 in 2018/19, to 13,444. The US is followed by Singapore, UK, India and South Korea.

Countries Finding It Harder to Get Visas Approved

Between April-June this year, Australia approved 91.9 per cent of visitor visa applications (including tourism and business visas) compared to 94.6 per cent during the same period in 2019.

It's understood the finalisation of visa applications lodged before or during the pandemic may have impacted the grant rate, as some applicants may have experienced a change in circumstances, and may no longer have wanted to travel to Australia.

COVID-19-related travel restrictions have also continued to impact the ability of Chinese nationals to travel internationally for tourism purposes.

Approval rates can vary widely between countries. Just 66 per cent of tourist visa 600 and 676 applications from Thailand were approved in April-June, compared to 95 per cent of those from the US.

Back in 2019, Thailand's grant rate for tourist visas was 82 per cent in the same period. Fiji had the lowest approval rate of 76 per cent while the highest rate was for Chile at 96 per cent.

This does not include figures for the 651 eVisitor visa, an electronic visa that only certain countries including the UK and other European countries, can apply for.

Australia approved around 83 per cent of tourist visas between April-June this year but grant rates for Thailand were much lower, at just 66 per cent. Source: SBS News

Meanwhile, approval rates for business visa 600 also dropped. Previously, most countries had high approval rates (of more than 90 per cent) for these visas in April-June 2019, and there was an overall approval rate of 94 per cent. This has now dropped to 91 per cent. In particular, China's approval rate for business visas dropped from 93 per cent in April-June 2019, to only 83 per cent this year.

By contrast, approval rates for sponsored tourist visa 600 improved from 81 per cent in April-June 2019, to 88 per cent this year. Indonesia boasted the highest grant rate of 94 per cent, a vast improvement from its 2019 approval rate of just 78 per cent.

Lebanon had the lowest approval rate of 71 per cent, although this was an improvement on its 2019 number of 55 per cent. Previously, the highest grant rate in 2019 was for Bangladesh citizens on 92 per cent.

Source: https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/australian-visitor-visa-wait-times-have-blown-out/g1m5rode7

[lockscreenhis]

like or reblog if u save it

"@poeticamenteflor"

[cocochannel00]

For my inbox full of people being nasty and questioning why people are mad about the way tour announcements were handled. Let me give you an example to compare this scenario too:

Imagine your friend is getting married in Hawaii June of 2020 and invites you to her big wedding in November of 2019. You’re excited, a chance to go to Hawaii and you love your friend so you agree to go. You budget out the cost of flights, hotel, etc. Then the pandemic hits and your friend says she, unfortunately, needs to push back the date to 2021.

You get it, everyone’s stuck at home, COVID is spreading and there’s no way you’d feel comfortable getting on a plane (much less be able to even find a flight) to get to the wedding. She sends out new dates in August 2021 and tells you her wedding planner and her will keep you posted on everything that’s going on. 

You agree to go, I mean a year from now things could be better, we might have a vaccine, things will be open. So you go about the rest of your year, you have the week marked off of the calendar, you’ve called off work for those days and you’ve booked your hotel room and flights. It’s a month before the wedding and the news on tv keeps talking about this new covid variant that’s spreading across the world and while you may be vaccinated, you’re still worried because 1000+ people at a wedding reception with no mask requriement that can really be enforced seems like a risky move. You reach out to her wedding planner that tells you that you should mark your calendars as the wedding is still on, but you’re not too sure. 

After weeks of back and forth emails with no real answer you see a post on Instagram from your friend (the bride) saying that for the safety of her guests she postponing her wedding until November 2022.

Now you’re stuck with a flight and hotel you can’t get refunded, the work days you already called off and a new date she wants you to accomodate for. 

Now take this scenario and triple it. You’re a Harry Styles fan that BOUGHT TICKETS (you weren’t invited you fucking paid to go) in 2019. Tour was pushed back from 2020 to 2021 and you haven’t heard any information about whether it was still happening or not for over a year (YES A FUCKING YEAR). You’re shows a month a way so you say fuck it plane tickets are getting expensive and so are hotels I need to book ASAP. You book your accomodations and flight and two days later you get an email from Ticketmaster saying your show is changed and a random tweet from Harry saying they’re trying their best and care about you (and new music is coming so hey don’t worry). SO now you have a $100-1000 ticket that you don’t know what to do with and the airline and hotel company won’t refund you without a hefty fee because they don’t give two sh*ts that your event was postponed. 

So why are people upset and angry? Because as much as it may seem that many of us spend all of our time on tumblr/dedicated to Harry, the majority have other obligations and things to do that we can’t just drop everything for a show. For some its work, others its school, some people have kids or other committments, and some can’t even get into the US cause of travel restricitons. I’ll repeat it again for those in the back:

THIS IS HARRY’S JOB. ALL OF HIS MONEY COMES FROM HIS NAME, HIS BRAND, HIS MUSIC. HE IS PAID TO PERFORM AND WITH THAT HE IS REQUIRED TO NOTIFY WHEN HE WILL NOT BE FUFILLING HIS JOB AS PLANNED. 

HIS TEAM IS EXPERIENCES AND SHOULD KNOW HOW TO HANDLE THIS.

The Weekend postponed tour... no problem, Elton John postponed tour... no problem. SO many people did it and did it well so don’t apologize or make excuses for him or his team because they are all knowledgable and have the resources to do this right. We all knew that COVID wasn’t going to disappear overnight so back up plans definitely should have been announced earlier.