#Also pretty sure the last battle was won by 0.1%

[thingsmysplattershotjrtoldme]

Two 100x battles won, one against each team. Ya girl is tired...

[slliest-clownmari]

Hello again! For the month of June we decided to don our best Icarus costumes because we flew directly into the sun on this one! Extra long disclaimer this time. If you're interested in the technical side what we did and how it went wrong, or want to see the raw numbers, that'll be at the bottom of this post!

Disclaimer: There were two major errors during collection. The first one resulted in five people's views not being collected for the first half hour of the event.  These people were SMajor/Noxcrew, ItsFunneh, Squaishey, ASFJerome, and Mefs, amounting to about 56k views when added back. The second error left a 45 minute gap in the data where nothing is collected. While these are major errors general trends are still visible and neat to look at!

TL;DR: MCCP21 peaked with 627.4k viewers a little more than thirty minutes into the event. 65.4% of those viewers were watching the Pink Parrots, and 87.9% of those were watching Technoblade. The second most watched team was the Lime Llamas at 16.9% of viewership, 77.6% of that coming from Wisp.

For easier viewing of the graphs, check out the Google Slides version! Total Viewership Over Time

The event peaked with 627,421 viewers at 8:33PM which was during Sky Battle. Looking at the trend of the data, this statistic is unlikely to have changed if the missing 45 minutes had been counted, especially seeing how the peak of MCC14 was also easily in the first hour.  Data collection began about an hour before the event's official start at 8:00PM and ended an hour after the event's end at 11:08PM.

Viewership by Individual Over Time

A fun game you can play with this graph, sans the labels, is guess which one's Technoblade! So far everyone I've shown the unlabelled graph to has guessed correct.

Three people went live after the official start time of the event at 8:00PM, those being Technoblade, Grian, and AyChristeneGames. Four streamers had gone offline prior to the end of 20vs20 Dodgebolt at 11:08PM. Twenty of the 24 participants had gone offline within 5 minutes of the event end. This is in sharp contrast to MCC14 where it took 15 minutes to have half of the 36 participants to go offline. MCC14 participants were also more likely to start streaming well in advance of the event. (For context, only Twitch data was collected for MCC14.) This is probably a cultural difference between Youtube and Twitch.

Viewership by Team Over Time

The viewership drop off after a team fails to reach Dodgebolt is a lot more severe this time, and you don't really see the two teams who did get to Dodgebolt get a boost either. Best guess is this is because MCCP21 was non-canon so nobody really cared who won the whole thing if their favorites didn't make it. Another observation: Pink Parrots has a much more severe dropoff during the Bird App Poll than everyone else. Unseen here is the viewership increase when Wilbur's fire alarm went off :(

Viewership Breakdown at Peak by Individual

So, not the most diverse viewership. The most watched person at peak in MCC14, Tommyinnit, only had 21.1% of total viewership. Even if you combine that percentage with the runner-up Dream's numbers, you only get 38.4% of viewership going to them. There is not a single team from MCC14 who captured nearly 57.5% of the viewership. The most they could do was 39.9% (Green Guardians). Absolutely insane degree of domination.

Top Five (Unrouned) 1. Technoblade (360.8k) 2. Wisp (82.2k) 3. Grian (45.5k) 4. ItsFunneh (44.9k) 5. Joey Graceffa (23.5k)

Bottom Five 26. Burren (78) 25. SeaPeeKay (333) 24. Spifey (403) 25. AyChristeneGames (498) 26. InTheLittleWood (521)

Wisp's numbers were so hugely different from last time (0.1% to 13.1%) that I actually sought out people who watched him to confirm he really had over 70k viewers. He did. This probably has to do with having fewer big names to compete with and being on a team with Tommy and Tubbo. Plus, he’s more familiar to the Minecraft community than Joey Graceffa, so fans of Tommy and Tubbo would be more likely to watch Wisp to see their faves. This isn't meant to belittle Wisp or to attribute his viewership entirely to Tommy or Tubbo; MCC is an unfair measurement of the usual popularity of a creator.

Viewership Breakdown at Peak by Team vs Survey Data

The predicted viewership graph was generated using data from a poll I ran on Tumblr and a poll run by u/Epic_Ninja_Dude123 on r/MinecraftChampionship.

Difference from predicted counts (Pred. % vs Actu. %) Lime Llamas: +9.1% (7.8% vs 16.9%) Green Guardians: +6.3% (0.9% vs 7.2%) Purple Pandas: -6.3% (6.7% vs 0.4%) Orange Ocelots: -5.1% (5.5% vs 0.4%) Red Rabbits: -4.1% (6.2% vs 2.1%) Blue Bats: -1.9% (2.5% vs 0.6%) Aqua Axolotls: +1.3% (2.5% vs 3.8%) Pink Parrots: +0.9% (64.5% vs 65.4%) Yellow Yaks: +0.5% (0.0% vs 0.5%) Cyan Creepers: -0.3% (3.2% vs 2.9%)

Standard Dev. for MCC14: 10.22 Standard Dev. for MCCP21: 2.89

Thrilled by these statistics!! The MCC14 survey had nearly triple the sample size (862) as this combined survey, but still ended up closer to actual counts. Real life proof of what they tell you in stats classes! A representative sample is the best kind of sample to have. Something I did not consider when using the survey for MCC14 is its source, a blog on Tumblr that talks heavily about Technoblade and Philza, which obviously biased the audience who took it towards the Pink Parrots (Philza, Fundy, Wilbur, JackManifold). Not a surprise we did better this time but really neat to see logic in action! lol

Another interesting thing about the survey: Reddit and Tumblr do vary a little in taste. It's easier to just show you:

What's missing? I chose not to calculate average/median viewership for the creators involved due to the large gap in data. It wouldn't be correct most likely.

So, how did you do this and how did you mess it up?

(I, the writer of this post, mostly do the analysis part of this project, not the programming. Apologies if any programmers are reading this and it doesn't make sense. :[ )

Our initial plan was do do just what we did to collect the MCC14 data but for YouTube instead of Twtich. (For MCC14 we used a Python program to request the viewership data directly from Twitch using their API.) This was much easier said than done. Unlike the Twitch API, which allows you to get stream information very easily just using a streamer's name, YouTube API doesn't have a "front door" way of getting this stuff. So, we went in the "back door."

First thing we had to do was manually collect the user ID for each participant. The next step is where the first error occurred: we needed to get our program to recognize the user ID as a user ID, which was done by writing a rule. This was stuff like how long the IDs were and what symbols were included in the IDs. We failed to include a symbol that was present in five of the participant's user IDs, so the program didn't recognize them as IDs and didn't run them through the part of the program which found the stream ID and collected viewer numbers. This is why that data was missing for SMajor/Noxcrew, ItsFunneh, Squaishey, ASFJerome, and Mefs in the first 30 minutes.

Another big way in which the YouTube API differs from the Twitch API is that YouTube has a quota system. Every action you can take with the API has a certain number of points connected to it, and you're only given so many points to spend a day per application. We thought we were only making one call to get viewer data for every streamer, but instead we were making a separate call for each streamer. That destroyed our quota pretty quick, resulting in the 45 minute gap in data collection. This problem was solved by moving our code into another application which granted us more quota.

This is an important lesson in testing your programs thoroughly before use!

On the bright side, the YouTube API is much more active than the Twitch API, which would update streamer numbers seemingly at random and not all at once. The YouTube API updated numbers roughly every 15 seconds and updated for all streamers, not just a few. That's why our graphs are higher resolution this time!

Here is the raw numbers: Click me!

Let's talk about next time

SO. Obviously this time around was not super ideal, which is partially on us for not testing more. (At least this was not the only scuffed thing about MCCP21. We were just being on brand, if you think about it.) However! Good news! The quota won't be a problem next time as MCC15 won't be Youtube exclusive.   We have already fixed the YouTube program we used this time around and have begun to merge the two. We might even be able to collect YouTube subscribers and Twitch followers by next time but we're focusing on making sure we get all the data next time.

Thank you all so much for reading! Again, any and all critique and questions are welcome! :]

[snkpolls]

SnK Chapter 113 Results

The chapter poll closed with 1,355 responses. Thank you to everyone who participated!

RATE THE CHAPTER 1,319 Responses

While still highly rated, last month’s chapter was a hard act to follow. The number of 5 ratings were down nearly 17%.

I find myself getting waaaaay religious whenever a new chapter comes out

Floch is annoying, Gabi is annoying, Eren is annoying, but I can't wait to see where this all is heading.

I could feel the ground shake and hear Zeke's agonizing screams and almost, almost really felt for the poor guy, falling victim to something worse than the angel of death itself.. gosh, I don't think a manga ever gave me such goosebumps before..well done Isayama, well fucking done.

Everytime I think Floch has reached the maximum level of assholery, he ups the game to inconceivable levels. I still can't believe poor Marlowe had to die for this.

Can I have a break from suffering? Thanks.

Forget opening a tea shop, Levi should open a sushi bar instead

Seriously how about Levi just go solo the whole world and win because he's so damn OP and save all Eldians and just end the story in the next episode

JUST TELL ME HOW ZEKE AND EREN MEET ALREADY!!

WHAT WAS THIS CHAPTER’S MOST MEMORABLE MOMENT? 1,331 Responses

It was hard to choose a favorite moment. “All of it” was the top pick (21.5%) followed by “Levi’s face when he resolved to kill his comrades” (17.1%). Third place was “Levi slicing Zeke’s feet and legs” (10%).  Levi’s Angel of Death moment was the most popular write-in. In retrospect it should’ve been included as an option.

Levi looking like a goddamn Angel of Death.

Nothing I am invested in happened this chapter, but Levi emerging from the trees like an avenging angel was pretty cool!

This is the First chapter where I have trouble choosing one Option. This was a real rollercoaster.

Levi kicking Zeke’s a** is quality entertainment

Kinda bummed by this chapter, though it was good. As a Mikasa stan (lmao) I was looking forward to seeing her post-emotional destruction, but we didn’t see her face vs. the rest of the 104th which makes me think she isn’t crying, but has gained some resolve and will pull open the bars or some shit. Also FUCK Floch.

Thank you Levi for finally ripping Zeke apart.

CHAPTER 113 IS CALLED “SAVAGERY.” WHICH CHARACTER DID YOU THINK BEST EXEMPLIFIES THIS TITLE? 1,322 Responses

Close to 70% of the fandom believes Levi was the most savage this chapter. Floch was a distant second (18.2%). The most popular write in was “All of them!”

I think the title "Savagery" does refer to Levi, because I think he can be the monster he needs to be to survive. And I love it.

Paradis island. The whole chain of command is out of the window; the residents are becoming savages (those who drank wine becoming mindless titans, trainees beating up Shadis, Yeagerists promoting anarchy, etc.) They are becoming literal savages (they're all sociopaths because they're a little more savage than others lul)

Keith Shadis & Floch  would be the obvious choice. But I interpret the title as describing the overall savagery of war, as seen in all the different parties.

Walls were built to protect titan from Levi, amen

While it very much could be a direct description of Levi's brutal actions aganist Zeke, I believe everyone engaged in this conflict is being savage one way or another by inheritence, as war in itself is savagery.

Zeke did nothing wrong. Levi did nothing wrong. Floche is the worst.

SINCE HANGE AND PIXIS HAVEN’T SPOKEN, HOW DID PIXIS KNOW ABOUT THE WINE? 1,321 Responses

Most respondents (42.8%) believe that Pixis does not know about the wine specifically, but deduced that Zeke's scream had something to do with what happened. 24.8% believe that he is just a smart dude, but 23.2% think that he might have been tipped off by Yelena.

Pixis knows alcohol. He knows when something's up.

Imo Pixis , Eren and Zeke are all working together , so Pixis gained knowledge of the wine from Eren , although after he drank it.

He was willing to surrender to the Yeager brothers, maybe Zeke or Kiyomi told him beforehand.

P A T H S

SINCE IT’S BEEN CONFIRMED THAT PIXIS AND NILE HAVE CONSUMED THE TAINTED WINE, DO YOU THINK THEY ARE DESTINED TO BECOME TITANS? 1,325 Responses

While the majority is unsure (42.7%), more than a third (34.4%) believe Nile and Pixis are destined to become titans.  Only 22.9% think they will die another way be just fine.

I really hope Pixis doesn’t become a Titan I’ve always liked him.

I think that Zeke has a plan, probably he wants that Levi takes him to Sina with the Paradis high commands (Pixis, Nile, etc) to use his scream with they to turn them to titans. We saw in this chapter that Zeke's scream doesn't work with enough distance, that's the reasson that Zeke wants to go with them.

LEVI HAS LOST ANOTHER SQUAD, THIS TIME BY HIS OWN HANDS. HOW BADLY DO YOU FEEL FOR LEVI? 1,327 Responses

79.4% of people responding to this question: Levi lost his entire squad (...again). He didn’t lose 20% of his squad. He didn’t even lose 50%. He lost his whole squad (...again). Look at what it’s done to him. You can see the death in his eyes, but he keeps on going. This is why Levi is one of my favorite characters.

If I have learned nothing else, I have learned that the world has destined Levi to be a soloist. Every time he has a squad something goes wrong.

Man, Levi's face was just pure resignation. He knew he had to, once again, he had to take lives in order to protect others. Gut wrenching, but just completely real.

Ffs, just let Levi retire. Like, look at the PAIN in his eyes when he remembers the conversation with his subordinates. It's even worse when his expression changes to "knowing exactly what to do".

I think he will be correct that everyone’s deaths amounted to nothing in the end

That panel if Levi falling while all his comrades are trying to kill him; this guy can't catch a break

THERE’S BEEN SOME TALK IN THE FANDOM ABOUT LEVI BEING TOO OP. WHAT DO YOU THINK? 1,333 Responses

53.3% of the fandom agree that Levi is OP but they are a-ok with it.  20% thinks he’s powerful and not OP at all. Only 10.3% of respondents indicated that Levi’s extreme power hurts their enjoyment of the series.

It doesn’t matter to me that many think Levi is OP; whether you agree with that or not, come on, give Levi a break. He at the very least deserves a happy ending after all he’s been through

Levi is too overpowered. I didn't want him to die here but at least I want him to have a more difficult fight. Him getting a serious injury for example. Every fight he had he didn't even get injured (except against the FT and that was because of Mikasa). This is one of the reasons that for me Levi is a VERY boring character.

Levi destroying Zeke was a surprise to be sure, but a welcome one. I think he stands a fair chance against Eren if he still has thunder spears.

Seeing all the Levi hate, because of the ""OP"" thing was kinda unexpected and annoying to me lol Without Levi's help for example in the female titan or RtS arc wouldn't be some characters where they are right now *cough* Mikasa would be dead *cough* I think Zeke underestimated him and that's was the deal at least.

Not sure the arguments about Levi being too OP make much sense. He was in the forest of giant trees, which has already been established as the best environment to use 3DMG. I really thought Levi was toast after last chapter just because Zeke utilizing the element of surprise, but I forgot how strong he was. Good to see him in action again.

I know a lot of people have had issues with Levi being too OP or with Levi being too cruel uwu but ffs have we forgotten who this man is? Levi fucking Ackerman, who is *supposed* to be OP af, who has the curse of having one of the worst fates in the series. Seriously, everybody around him is dying, he was born in a shit world that just keeps getting shittier, and he is no close to that pristine tea shop than he ever was, possibly ever will be. Sure he's Hella strong and survives all his battles with barely a scratch, but does it give him a happy life? No it fucking does not.

Levi isn't OP you guys are just mean

LEVI=GOD

DO YOU THINK LEVI’S QUICK DEFEAT OF ZEKE WAS UNREALISTIC? 1,332 Responses

Just over half the fandom (50.8%) say no, Levi’s quick defeat of Zeke was not unrealistic. Only 8.6% answered “Yes” to this question.

I know 90% of the Fandom has a hard-on for Levi but I wish the fight with zeke was more even.

Levi's fight against Zeke was fun but at the same time it felt like some sort of repetition of him fucking Zeke up back in RTS (I guess that was part of the purpose, lol), so it ended up not being very appealing to me after a couple of days.

Being Intelligent and being Smart are different things and yes Zeke might be good at planning strategies but he is a dumbass when it come to fighting and understanding other people.

Seeing Levi vs BT 2.0 gave me some serious highs. Was literally shaking while reading the leaks. I just realised how Levi truly is the perfect foil to someone like Zeke. The world could be crumbling, but give Levi any task, and you can trust him to deliver it 99.9% of the times, with the 0.1% being but the benefit of the doubt.

BEFORE READING THIS CHAPTER, WHO HAD YOU THOUGHT WOULD WIN THIS ENCOUNTER? 1,327 Responses

At nearly 40%, a majority of respondents thought that Levi vs Zeke Round 2 would be a more even fight than their first encounter, with a close 34.7% thinking that Levi would prevail again. Only 21.1% believed Zeke would win.

Anyone who thought Zeke had any chance of facing Levi and winning mano a mano (even with titans) is not reading the same manga I am.

The "Farewell, Heicho" leak made me think Zeke won.

I thought Zeke's plan wouldn't be enough to kill Levi, but enough for him to escape. I still wasn't surprised lol.

If it came down to a straight battle, I knew Levi would win because we've seen him win against greater odds. The difference is that I didn't think the encounter would become a straight-up battle so quickly, I assumed Zeke would have some other distraction or escape plan other than literally just yeeting out of the scene

I hoped Zeke would escape or Levi would at least struggle instead of Ackerhaxing his way through 20+ Titans and still managing to catch up to an escaping Zeke and effortlessly defeat him, but no.

The outcome was fairly expected considering all the factors that stood in Levi's advantage (big ass trees, thunder spear, zeke's miscalculationsTM/underestimation...etc) so I wasn't surprised when he easily whooped his ass.

Bolting away while screaming was such a solid plan. I'm shocked it didn't work.

IF ZEKE HAD EXPLAINED HIS PLAN TO LEVI, DO YOU THINK THERE’S A CHANCE LEVI WOULD’VE UNDERSTOOD? 1,327 Responses

42% of respondents think it’s possible that Levi might have been open to Zeke’s plan, but equally possible he wouldn’t have listened. Nearly 40% are certain that Levi has no interest in anything Zeke has to say. A small 13% of respondents think that Levi would have been open minded if open communication had been present.

whether Levi would have "understood" the Jeagerbros' plan is irrelevant. I think Levi still lives by "make the choice with least regrets" and so would not have changed his mind, even if he had understood their motivations.

Poor zeke , Poor Levi , we wish Levi will understand zeke's point of view...😔😔

WILL LEVI FACE NEGATIVE CONSEQUENCES FOR STOPPING ZEKE AND DELAYING THE YEAGERBRO’S PLAN? 1,324 Responses

Half of respondents believe that Levi will not be able to bask in his victory for long before the story throws him another wrench. 30% aren’t sure if he will or not and 15% are confident that Levi’s victory is solid and will be rewarded.  

I believe Levi has now somewhat of an advantage over the Yeagerists as he's holding the key and core to their plan captive, without Zeke the plan just won't proceed. Unless Eren suspected something might happen to Zeke and has a plan B up his sleeves, Levi has the upper hand now, and he can easily finish Zeke off any second. If he were to encounter Eren & co. on the way there's no doubt he'll use Zeke as a bargaining chip. I'm exceptionally excited to see how things will play out between them.

God I hope not, but knowing Yams, something terrible awaits Levi after the brilliance of this chapter.

not sure but SERIOUSLY people need to stop with the lies and secrets.

I think something we're not expecting might happen.

Why would he? If there are any negative consequences coming his way, it is because he didn't kill Zeke . Zeke seems like the type to come up with double plans -- for example, Levi could unintentionally be leading Zeke to his meetup with Eren.

I wouldn't say "negative consequences," but he definitely stalled their plans. Considering the fact that no one other than the two know what those plans are, I feel like Levi's victory over Zeke would allow some space in the story for these "plans" to finally be revealed and explained, whether it be to the characters in the story, or to us readers.

Zeke can regenerate anyway so I think he might get away with it

I'm afraid for Levi. He did what he did to Zeke with the best intentions, but I fear he's now inadvertently ruining the plan the brothers had so carefully orchestrated. I'm afraid he's gonna face Eren in a next chapter, who's going to do everything to prevent his brother from being eaten.

WHERE DO YOU THINK LEVI IS HEADING? 1,317 Responses

Historia’s Farm was the most popular option with nearly half the vote (49.7%). Shiganshina was second with 20%. In retrospect we should’ve included Rakugo as a potential destination since the theory that he’s heading there to feed Zeke to Connie’s mom is gaining popularity.

Historia's Farm or Ragako

Levi's smart enough to figure out there were probably more individuals on the receiving end of the tainted wine.  With that in mind, he'll be very cautious with where he goes to ensure no more transformations occur.

Unless he has some titan serum in his pockets going straight to Historia would be a bit pointless. Meeting with Pyxis first seems likely.

Taking Zeke to Shiganshina or anywhere where everyone else are is too risky. Zeke could get away and pull out his screaming card and shift onto his beast titan form.

The horses don't seem to be moving. So maybe he's just chilling out in an open field

To Erwin’s grave

Dear snkpolls. How about cutting out with this unfunny Zevi bullshit for sociopaths and including real ships some people actually like instead? I mean pairings. Not the actual ships. I don't want Titanic in the next poll.

Honestly, the Zevi getaway option gave me a much needed laugh after the chapter.

HOW DO YOU FEEL ABOUT LEVI’S SLICE AND DICE OF ZEKE’S LEGS? 1,330 Responses

A tiny fraction (3.1%) of the fandom was upset or disappointed with Levi’s actions, the rest were fine with it. “I don’t blame him” and “cruel but understandable” comprised the thoughts of 70% of the fandom. 20% wish Levi had done even more.

I thought it was unnecessarily cruel and completely in-character for Levi. God I love this man

He didn't want Zeke to transform, what's so difficult to understand?

Honestly I’m not sure why zeke was so surprised that Levi came out alive lmao. Like he’s literally seen - up close and personal - what he’s capable of. He’s humanity’s strongest ffs.

I get it and it's hard to say there's not a little justification, but I think it's a very natural human response to wince at ANYONE suffering enormous amounts of pain. Most of us would cringe even if we were witnessing Hitler himself being tortured, no matter what we might think right now. It's just a natural, innate reaction to human suffering.

Unnecessarily cruel and it's gonna bite him in the ass.

I have not been able to eat celery since

DID ZEKE’S INTERNAL MONOLOGUE AFFECT YOUR FEELINGS ABOUT HIM? 1,328 Responses

44% of respondents were not swayed one way or another about their stance on Zeke after hearing more of his perspective, while 29% continue see him as a total enigma. 23% have started to see Zeke more positively.

Zeke shows he lacks fundamental understanding of human compassion

BABY ZEKE LOOK AT HIM ISAYAMA WHY DO YOU DO THIS

Zeke is officially an idiot and Eren is a bigger one for trusting him above his friends.

I kinda don't want Zeke to have some tragic background. Zeke as the series Joker who just wants to see everyone destroy each other no matter who they are, that is a far more interesting direction for me than more of the same 'Marleyans aren't evil, just misunderstood' rubbish that we have been force-fed for over a year

Zeke deserves life, love, and his glasses.

One other thing that really pleased me in this chapter is that Levi managed to give a reply to each of Zeke's annoyingly patronising statements. Zeke has always made me furious with his ""aww you naïve creatures, you don't understand"" bit, and I adored the fact that Levi actually shut him up while he fought him. About goddamn time someone shut up that monkey.

Zeke worrying about his glasses is a big mood because as a fellow glasses wearer, I would do the same

DO YOU BELIEVE SHADIS TAUNTED THE NEW RECRUITS IN AN EFFORT TO PROTECT THEM/HANGE? 1,329 Responses

A huge majority (74%) agrees: Keith Shadis is a good dude, and wanted to protect the recruits and/or Hange with his boast. A minority (7.6%) believes he severely overestimated himself (oof), while everyone everyone else (18.4%) was not sure.

I didn't before, but I do now, you monsters!

Respect for Shadis for what he did.

Also, somebody please kill Floch already.

Shadis deserves only good things

Shadis is sick, anyone who says he isn't is trippin

I wish Shadis had head butted the shit out of Floch

I can't believe that Shadis roasted Floche to a crisp and sent him to the Burn Unit lolololol

YOUR THOUGHTS ON FLOCH ARE BEST SUMMED UP AS: 1,318 Responses

Floch will not be winning any popularity contests in the near-future, with 67% of respondents selecting the most negative options: that they want him to burn (44.5%), or that they just simply love hating him (22.5%). In contrast, only about 10% of respondents view Floch favorably:  3% say they are fully on his side, while 6.4% still reluctantly support him.

A character such as his is destined to die while Eren looks at him emotionless. Eren doesn't give a shit about him and this little boy will learn it the hard way. He's a prime example of the "brainwashed, vengeful" character who dies a horrible death.

He's just a pawn.  I have no feelings for pawns.

I'm really sad that Shadis got pulverized, but do still think that Floch is trying to help Paradis the only way he knows how (even if a tad misguided).

Floch is correct about needing to be more proactive, but he & Yeagerists are going about everything the wrong way. I do not support the Yeagerists.

Shadis' assault was absolutely unnecessary and savage for all the wrong reasons. Floch is basically on a power trip here and it was sickening to read. I hope he dies a slow, painful death, that dickwad.

I don't think there's a definitive answer as to who's right here. Marley's coming and if Eren is the right leader, then fine. But it's not given.

I hate him, but wonder if he might have a point

I wish someone would use P A T H S to rip the fabric of their reality open and that that would lead to Mount Doom, just so they could then toss Floch's ass into it. That would be great, thanks.

Now I'm not saying anyone is truly evil in snk... but Floch is sprinting in that direction so fucking fast.

WHICH CHARACTER(S) DID THIS CHAPTER MAKE YOU FEEL MOST SYMPATHETIC TOWARDS? 1,320 Responses

Levi easily takes first place this time around after losing yet another squad, this time at his own hand. He’s followed by Shadis (did he really deserve that, Floch??), Hange, and the rest of the 104th. Zeke’s short flashback garnered some empathy as well.

Levi, Zeke, Mikasa, Armin and the 104th, Hange, Shadis, Every single character in this chapter. Even Floch and the cadets.

I feel a lot of sympathy for Falco, waking up naked in a robe in front of strangers. What, they were in THAT much of a hurry?

I feel sympathetic to all of them - even Zeke a tiny bit. This whole thing is a clusterfuck of mamoth proportions.

Zeke might join the list, but depends on next chapter, I need his flashbacks to give me a valid reason to why I should sympathize with him, which I think they will as his past looks just as crappy and angsty as the other characters'.

Levi, Zeke, Mikasa, Armin and the 104th, Hange, Shadis, Eren. He looks miserable even though he's SOOO FREEEE~

IN LAST MONTH’S POLL, ONLY 17% OF RESPONDENTS BELIEVED THAT EREN IS IN CONTROL OF HIS ACTIONS. WE WANT TO KNOW IF THIS CHAPTER CHANGED YOUR OPINION. WHAT BEST DESCRIBES HOW YOU VIEW EREN’S CONTROL OF HIS ACTIONS? 1,324 Responses

The percentage of respondents who believe Eren is fully in control of his actions jumped from 17% to 23% this month. 29% percent still believe that he’s fallen victim to a combination of Zeke’s manipulation and previous titan holders’ memories. 16% remain confused and don’t want to make assumptions either way, 14% believe that the titan power is controlling Eren, and a small 8% actually think it’s the other way around and that Eren is manipulating Zeke.

I think what he said to MA is ultimately to protect them, but like Connie said - the eren we’ve seen since Grim Reminder 2.0 in Liberio isn’t the eren we once knew.

Eren is and always has been kind of a jerk. I think he's 100% free to make his own choices. However, I wouldn't discount the idea that the memories he's inherited and whatever selective knowledge Zeke has imparted are influencing those decisions. They're in no way forcing him though. This is all 100% organic Eren BS.

He is being only influenced by the previous titans, which is messing up with his mental state. This causes him to make decisions not regarding human life out of wanting to fight for freedom.

Eren is the master manipulator! Mark my words, guys!

Zeke and Eren are both misguided. Perhaps the rumbling is a lie, or they have a plan that only they would get, but I suspect that the rumbling isn't a simple concept, just like Marley and the Helos story.

Eren is definitely being influenced by previous titans. After he consumed the hammer titan some changed about the way he acts.

He's definitely not being controlled by Zeke, but I still think there is something off/wrong with him.

Eren's doing what he thinks is best for his people, and chose this path based on the memories he gained, the experiences he's had, and the information he's come to know. Its possible some of this information was skewed by Zeke, but other than that Eren is in control

I personally believe he is being influenced by the many titan powers he holds as well as the many memories of the people that held these titans before him however, I believe that these powers are not completely dominating him and he’s able to make his own decision. Eren is also probs not being manipulated by Zeke as I believe that these two bros will stay together.

Influenced to an extent but still in control in that the various factors we're considering has warped how he thinks the situation should be handled. I feel like Eren thinks his unpredictability gives him the most control because he'll probably try to do what's most advantageous on the fly as forks in the road appear (because he never really struck me as someone who can spearhead planning ahead). He's in control of his actions but I think he's still incredibly susceptible to manipulation by those who can plan as a result.

DO YOU THINK EREN IS REALLY WORKING WITH THE YEAGERISTS? 1,322 Responses

Half of respondents believe that Eren is actively working with the Yeagerists in order to achieve a larger goal. 17% aren’t convinced he has anything to do with them aside from tagging along on their road trip. Almost 10% of respondents believe Eren will eventually backstab Floch and isn’t on their side at all, and 9% feel that Eren has been the one giving orders all along.

Maybe he is, but I still have some hope for him that what he did was to protect the people he loves. I hope he still cares about them.

Eren is using them (he doesn't give a fuck about them) and the Yeagerists are using Eren. Eren will backstab Floch. I don't think Eren's aware of everything Floch's doing while using his name but, at the same time, if Eren "cared" about what they do he would ask/wonder... he's too dead inside for that tho

I hope he backstabs them but damn am i confused and a lil angry about this situation

Whether he is working with them or not, he did nothing to stop them but rather act as their leader and that makes him partially responsible for their actions.

Dammit Eren you better not be behind Shadis' beating, he's a good man

I have this feeling Eren doesn't really give a titan's ass whether they're on his side or not, as long as Big Bro got his back he will carry on with the plan either way. They sort of just formed this faction on their own but Eren isn't stupid not to take advantge of that. After all, who knows what might happen and keeping his own small army at arm's reach sure is helpful. But Eren did mature into this very prideful and confident rebel with that "aint need nobody bitch" attitude so.

They seems to be a different faction led by Floch, and Eren is exploiting this.

I think he is working with Zeke (whether they have the same end goal or not is something I’m not sure about) but I don’t think he is working with the Yeagerists and doesn’t even fully know about them or what they are doing

Zeke and Floch are on one side and think they are working with Eren. Eren is currently working with them solely as a means to reach an end and will go his own way after they initiate the rumbling.

PREDICTION TIME!! WHO IS MISTER XAVER? 1,328 Responses

Almost all respondents (81.9%) speculate that Mister Xaver is the holder of the Beast Titan that preceded Zeke, and 25% believe he was affiliated with Eren Kruger in some way. 21% think that he is a family friend of the Jaegers, while 8% believe he was an actual member of the family. There are all sorts of other creative ideas floating around about who this bespectacled mentor figure might be:

Titan Scientist

Pitcher and pinch-hitter for the Liberio Warhammers.

Zeke’s father figure

Zeke's only childhood friend

I think he’s the person who inspired Zeke’s plans

A member of the royal family

Kiyomi and Kruger's ally in the plan to restore Eldia in order to destroy Marley, hated by the three of them

I think he might be an “Ackerman” or someone from the Hizuru clan that secretly remained in Liberio to watch over the members of the royal family there (Dina, then eventually Zeke as he grew up). I also think he was working with Kruger to “groom” Zeke for the ultimate plan that is beginning to unfold now in the most recent chapters (whatever that plan may be idk) (just as Kruger’s influence and memories “groomed” Grisha, and perhaps Eren for what’s happening now as well) P A T H S.

Xaver runs a school for mutants.

PURE SPECULATION, BUT DO YOU THINK XAVER INFLUENCED ZEKE TO TURN IN GRISHA AND DINA? 1,324 Responses

Just over half of respondents believe that Xaver had some influence on Zeke, and that influence contributed to his choice to turn his parents (and the other restorationists) in to the Marleyan government. 33% are not sure, while ~16% believe that Xaver had no hand in that decision.

It would be interesting to see Zeke's flashback, I think you could be onto something, that Zeke himself is a victim of childhood indoctrination, and was manipulated by Xavier (a true honorary Marleyan) to turn in his parents and be loyal to Marley. He clearly thinks of him very fondly, and he seems to be the only one confirmed to be in Zeke's good books. He may or may not be the former beast titan, but I think that however he died is a major reason and key to understanding Zeke's current actions and main motive.

Since he has been shown comforting Zeke after he snitched on his parents, their relationship obviously goes way back and it drives me to think he was a close family friend/relative whom Zeke found some kind of comfort in to battle the neglect, pressure and brainwashing of his parents. From the final panel it doesn't look to me that Xaver wanted Zeke to become a warrior at first, hence probably why he infuenced him to turn in his parents, but obviosuly sth happened that changed that. I do believe he's the ex-BT, even if he wasn't, surely his death was a major factor in why Zeke decided to become a warrior. Dang it I should stop writing nonsense I just wanna KNOW WHATS UP WITH THAT MONKEY MAN

WHO DID IT BETTER? 1,326 Responses

Almost half of respondents thought both our Ackermans brought the thunder equally! Levi, however takes the title this time, with 31% choosing him over Mikasa when it comes to blowing up titans. 18.8% thought she still did it best. 

OUR TRANSLATORS APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN CHANNELING STAN LEE. WHAT’S YOUR FAVORITE SFX FROM THIS CHAPTER? 1,300 Responses

“Splat” edged out “ba-BOOM” for the win with just under 20% of the vote. “BSHHT” was  third and “baKRAK” a close fourth.

WHAT ARE YOU MOST HOPING TO SEE NEXT CHAPTER? 1,330 Responses

These last few hard hitting chapters have amped up the pace of the story, and most people are looking forward to further plot progression. 46.2% and 42.7% are hoping this comes are some sort of flashback related to Zeke or the Yeager bros, respectively. Historia and the warriors bring up the rear, and there’s always people hoping for something more specific in the write-ins:

I miss Reiner and Historia...bring them back please.

this chapter lacked a significant amount of Reiner, and i am tired of not seeing him

I'd take an entire chapter of Levi chopping Zeke up, please

Show me my Mikasa!

Missing Option: Mikasa, Armin, and the 104th

Literally a thought from Eren.

Gabi and Eren Talk

༼ つ ◕_◕ ༽つ Give Annie ༼ つ ◕_◕ ༽つ

Someone killing Floch. Anyone. Please.

Let it be contain one panel of the best girl Yelena 😭

Prison break for the SC and equipping the 3DMG in preparing to battle

More Floch Greatness. All Hail The New Eldian Empire!

I can safely assume next chapter will be 75% Zeke flashbacks which is what I've been waiting for.

JUST GIVE US ANSWERS ISAYAMA!!!!!

WHERE DO YOU PRIMARILY DISCUSS THE SERIES? 1,286 Responses

ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS ON THE CHAPTER?

Floch needs to — and I can’t stress this enough — die an unholy death.

Zeke should not have grown his facial hair back before all his skin lol

A very aptly named chapter, where there is savagery and violence, without glorifying or romanticising the brutality. Violence obscures understanding and communication, as seen with the inability for Levi and Zeke to understand each other, despite them being more similar than they realize. Levi kills all his titanized comrades but he is emotionally and mentally unravelling — it is not true victory, only loss and fading of hope. Floch’s violence through abuse of power only breeds cruelty and the reiteration of oppression — it is not true revolution, only regression. Zeke and Eren’s actions intentionally bring war upon Paradis — it brings death and destruction. And yet violence is necessary - it is an unavoidable truth in a world that refuses to listen, only fight, because of fear. The themes in this chapter have so many layers to them; it was a tough one to read because of how dark and brutal it was, but very thought provoking. As readers we look forward to action and fight scenes, but here Isayama deliberately and skillfully delivers it in such a raw and uncomfortable way.

Floch will forever be Manneke Pis. Shadis has been through enough. Eren is hot but needs to die. Falco needs some clothes. Where was Gabi? I fear for Historia's unborn child. Warriors when?

Regarding Zeke, seeing him tear up while thinking of Xaver hurt me a little bit. It's one of the few times (the first time, even? not sure.) that we've seen him show any strong attachment and fondness (and borderline remorse) with regards to his actions. He isn't the "absolutely evil" character in this series.

This kind of chapters are like "ok" to me but frustrating as hell. It will be nice to see it animated in 2030 nonetheless.

I still thinks Eren is a jerk but i still love him. Plus: Floch can be canceled i don't care. Plus+: I want my babies Armin and Mikasa free of the jail, They don't deserve that crap from Eren.  

Seeing Levi vs BT 2.0 gave me some serious highs. Was literally shaking while reading the leaks. I just realised how Levi truly is the perfect foil to someone like Zeke. The world could be crumbling, but give Levi any task, and you can trust him to deliver it 99.9% of the times, with the 0.1% being but the benefit of the doubt.

I think it was a waste of time if I'm being honest. We learned nothing new other than from the few pages with Zeke.

I think this chapter made me realise that I don't really care about Levi anymore.

I waited until the last day to fill this poll out because I honestly don't know how I feel about this series right now. While there's plenty of entertainment to be found in these recent chapters, I don't think I really like the direction the story has taken. I'm bored. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I was surprised to see people genuinely being concerned about Levi surviving after the last chapter/when spoilers were dropping. Levi got plot armour thicker than a tank. He already took out a whole row of titans at far worse odds. He wasn't going to die.

I'm excited for what's coming. I wanted a high stakes story and I'm anxious, but in a good way. Still giving Eren the benefit of the doubt, he has to have info that he's not sharing (from having the memories of 3 titans).

I'm so dead inside due to having an awfully emotional week of being very sad about Zeke and celebrating the survival of Levi. I love both of them so much, this chapter exhausted me greatly.

It was nice to have a more action-packed chapter this time around, I've been missing those. It looks to me like at least half of next chapter will consist of Zeke's childhood flashback, then after that I would like to see Historia again. Please Isayama it's been half a year I miss my queen! :((((

Oh my god Xavier yes yes yes I thought Isayama had completely forgotten about the “mystery man”

I'm so glad Levi won and got Zeke tied up! Now Armin's got to find a safe way to do a titan jailbreak! Hange needs allied more than ever!

No Pieck, no party. Things are just heating up, and it’s still somehow a shitshow?

It's nice to know that characters such as Levi exist in a very morally grey world, and that of all the people given extraordinary powers and abilities, it's someone with that kind of mindset. It makes me feel positive that the series would end in an overall good note, even if this may include some heartbreaking deaths and turn of events.

I liked finally seeing a little more inside Zeke's head.

THIS is how you subvert expectations. Introduce that Levi is watching Zeke back in 106 and doesn't trust him then, and then showing their conversation in 110 to further building the tension. Because of the reveal of Zekerets and that Zeke had been working with Eren as well as the fact that Levi won his first encounter against Zeke - it makes sense from a storytelling standpoint for Zeke to win his next encounter against Levi. 112 plays into this expectation due to Zeke's sudden attack on Levi with a cliffhanger heavily suggesting that Levi would die. Instead 113 was the complete opposite, with Levi utterly decimating Zeke and making the story take an unexpected curve. This chapter is brilliant.

The story is progressing extremely fast right now. The Endgame arc is approaching its climax with all the players taking their stance in preparation for the Ragnarok…

Floch needs to be taught not to miss around with adult affairs that are way beyond his basic childish comprehension. I don't hate the guy but I will be satisfied to watch him shit his pants in a fiasco made of his terrible life choices.

okay but when will best boy jean finally read flock the riot act

there is no transparency in this arc, only suffering

[migleefulmoments]

I'm a psych major - i seriously believe that the CC fandom is a cult - the hate they send is cult like mentality, they have something seriously wrong with them. Like mentally. I wouldn't be surprised if one of them got arrested for harassment of C or D or their partners.

Come off anon and chat with me...there is a lot to unpack and I won’t do it publicly.  

There is definite some mental health issues for in that fandom. I too keep wondering how far they will push it.  If not them, will some follower of theirs do something stupid because they are emboldened by the rhetoric that the ccc leaders spew? 

Whether the anons are real or the leaders of the ccc are sending anons to themselves-or it’s a combination of both- is unclear to me, what I do know is that the answers they are giving are consistently and purposefully misleading and often outright lies. 

Two recent examples of their outrageous lies; 

1. ANON::

“...have u seen naya say on the podcast that C was actually upset about santana's rant to kurt in that episode... because it was so real? it really makes u think that there was for sure one writer thay really did have it out for chris...

ajw720 answered:

That rant was 100% directed at C and it was divined by RM.  He is raging with jealousy towards C, he has everything, looks, talent, creativity, and D.  And things completely feel apart when RM realized C was genuine competition.  You realize Blainofsky was punishment to CC for acting out that past summer? He literally broke up the fan favorite couple on the show during the last season for revenge. And he despises C in particular. And that rant was not aimed at K/urt. It was aimed at C.  And I am glad N/aya commented on it, I can’t imagine how she felt being used on that manner.

FACT CHECK: 

Had she spent 2 minutes Googling this she would have realized that fact Brad Falchuk-not Ryan Murphy- wrote Jagged Little Tapestry thus invalidating her entire theory.

Everything she said about Ryan Murphy in this paragraph is simply her fantasy. Ryan is a very successful and powerful Hollywood writer, producer, and director. He is also gay and married with young children and Is a powerful LGBQT advocate.  His youngest son waged a 2-year battle with Neuroblastoma from 2016-2018. Neuroblastoma is a vicious form of childhood cancer that requires intense treatment. I used to be an pediatric oncology/bone marrow transplant nurse and this cancer and treatment is no joke. 

Ryan Murphy is very creative- he created and wrote episodes of Glee, 911, and  Nip/Tuck, AHS, ACS, and the upcoming The Politician. Check out his IMDB (X).  

He has won numerous awards and nurtured a lot of queer content including Pose which hired both LGBTQ actors and staff making it highly unlikely that he would closet a gay actor. 

She suggested Ryan is jealous of Chris because of his “looks” and  his relationship with Darren. There is nothing to suggest that Ryan is unhappy in his married, his attracted to much younger or is attracted to Chris and/ Darren.  Ryan called his husband, “His rock” in 2018 when talking about their son’s illness.  

Abby ignores  Ryan’s real life story, instead because it doesn’t fit her fanfiction character profile she created for Ryan.     

2. ANON: 

“....is it a known fact to the whole fandom that f/etusm/iarren is M/ia ?” (X)

chrisdarebashfulsmiles answered:

Hi, you know, i think (my opinion) that m/iarrens are ignoring purposely this fact. Like.. they have seen everything happening or showed here and decided to say “hey, you know? i don’t care”. Like they do with everything that is not part of the “D is straight” tale.

Let’s say that most of us have an idea about who the minions are (if they exists and i think i can tell you that maybe one is a real person)… but it’s irrelevant. 

The account still exists because, and believe me i don’t know how this is possible, the stans who follow that account are more “m/ia stans” (the ones that bother us on our blogs and in blogs dedicated to hate and mock us) than “D stans.  Let me tell you one thing: i speak with a good bunch of “m/iarren” that are D stans and we are on the same page, we worry for D. No talk of bullshit with them. Most of them understood that something wasn’t ok and they left their fandom, without becoming part of the cc one. Others are still here but more subtle and still respectful.

And I see why: because they want to understand what is wrong.

Anyway: D’s team gives her stuff, and this is one of the problem.

FACT CHECK:

In truth, there are very few “Mia stans” and a lot of “Darren stans”.  The CCCers refuse to listen to what their anons actually say. Instead they pigeon-hole people into categories based on their own needs and they need us to be unreasonable and obsessed with Mia rather than Darren for their self-righteous antics to work.   

Nobody that I am aware of is purposefully ignoring credible evidence that Darren is gay. None of us are looking at the “evidence “ and saying “hey, we don’t care”.  The fact is that very few people care if Darren is gay or straight and the “evidence” is nonsense. I have yet to year one thing that sounds credible. Anyone else? 

I did a very rudimentary look her claim that “The account still exists because, and believe me i don’t know how this is possible, the stans who follow that account are more “m/ia stans” than “D Stans”.  I sampled 280 Fetu/sMiarr/en followers: 

The vast majority were private accounts aka we cannot say why they are interested in the account.

4 or 0.1% called themselves Mi/arrens

10 or 3.5% listed Kl/aine or Gle/e in their profile

15 or 5.3% listen Darre/n or posted photos of him alone

1 or 0.03% was a Guns ‘N Hoses page DING DING DING we found the Mia Stan.   

Darren’s team gives her stuff? What exactly would Darren’s team need to give her? She is his wife. She goes everywhere with him. they own a home and bar together. 

Chrisdarebashfulsmiles had a rare moment of honestly when she said “Believe me I don’t know how this is possible”.  The truth is. it isn’t possible. it’s all made up.

Abby stuck her nose in to the conversation with this wisdom: 

ajw720

And a lot of the stans who refuse to accept it, need M because she is the only thing that makes d straight. And they know as soon as they start to question, they have to face reality

Um, no Abs, Mia is not the only thing that makes Darren straight. 

Darren is straight because he is a man who is sexually attracted to women....the very definition of “straight”.  

Darren has identified as straight for 9 years. 

Your confusion around his sexual orientation is simply your refusal to respect his word because you believe you know more than he does about his own feelings-however that isn’t a valid argument.    

His marriage to Mia is a personal decision to build a life with the woman he loves and has been in a relationship with for 9 years or so.

Let’s look at Darren’s own words over the years:  

2011 'Glee' Star Darren Criss Comes Out—As A Straight Guy!(X)

"I think it's more empowering to everybody, including myself, if I'm articulate about identifying myself as a straight male playing a gay character," the actor says in the Hollywood issue of Out magazine. "Ultimately, that's more powerful for both communities."

When Criss first got the role of Blaine, he admits that he wanted to deflect questions about his sexual orientation, giving reporters answers like, "It doesn't matter if I'm gay or straight." But he decided that it was better if he was just honest and straightforward. Besides, he explains, he owes a huge part of his identity to gay role models. 

2011 “Glee Star Darren Criss Dishes on Kissing Lea Michele & Losing Out To Cory Monteith (X)

I’ve been pretty overt about the fact that I am straight,” Darren told Billy and Kit. “I think it’s an important thing to be explicit about — not for my own sexuality, but just as a general statement that I am comfortable with my sexuality and very comfortable with the fact that I’m playing a strong gay character.”

I’ve been pretty overt about the fact that I am straight,” Darren told Billy and Kit. “I think it’s an important thing to be explicit about — not for my own sexuality, but just as a general statement that I am comfortable with my sexuality and very comfortable with the fact that I’m playing a strong gay character.”

2013 Cosmo Guy” Darren Criss On Glee’s New Chapter   (X)

Q: You're not gay; you just play gay on TV. Do you ever feel the need to assert your heterosexuality?

A: No. I know who I am. I feel bad for guys who have to flex their muscles. But hey, if that's the way to make yourself feel comfortable as a man—as long as it isn't antagonizing anybody—go for it. I'm okay with your getting a Miata to feel like a dude; just don't be a dick about it.

Darren Criss Will No Longer Play Gay Characters (X)

Darren Criss has decided that he will no longer play gay characters. Why? Because he doesn’t want to be a straight actor taking potential roles from actors who actually identify as gay, he said in a recent interview with Bustle.

“There are certain [queer] roles that I’ll see that are just wonderful,” he explained. “But I want to make sure I won’t be another straight boy taking a gay man’s role.”

2018 Darren Criss on Playing Serial Killer Andrew Cunanan in ACS: Versace and Passing as White  (X)

You’ve also played a lot of gay and queer characters. Has playing these parts informed how you think about your sexuality or gender? That’s a great question. God, we need like an hour. Sure, yes. Absolutely. It definitely has. I think being queer in general evokes more self-questioning than somebody who’s cisgender straight, because you really have to explore a lot of things about yourself that are meeting resistance on conventional social levels. So you have to go, “Okay, cool. Is this really how I feel?” There are questions that arise within yourself that doesn’t have to happen if you live in a hetero-normative universe. So in that sense, I think the journey of questioning oneself, which everybody does anyway — and should do— I admire that narrative. Even though I am not gay myself, or queer, I am a storyteller, and I love and appreciate the strength of character it takes for someone to get through that, whether it was difficult or not. I’ve been very blessed in my career with being allowed in the gay community. Again, as a cisgendered straight dude, that’s not lost on me. I don’t take that for granted. It’s been such a huge part of my life, even pre-Glee. I come from San Francisco doing theater, man. Like, I was raised by gay men. Not literally at home, but you know, as a young kid doing theater, my friends were these men and women in their 20s, driving me home and getting me dinner. These were my adult figures in my life, so unconsciously I’ve always had such affection for the life, whatever that means. So I guess inhabiting a gay voice is important to me because it’s a voice that I find inspiring. 

These are just two of the many lies the cc fandom tell their followers in order to manipulate them into believing the fantasies that means much to them.  

[theliberaltony]

via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

Back in April, we put together a three-part series on how well national presidential primary polls conducted in the calendar year before the primary predicted who eventually won a party’s nomination. That analysis covered every competitive nomination contest from 1972 to 2016, and it found that early polls are somewhat predictive of the final outcome, especially when polling averages are adjusted for how well-known a candidate was at the time.

We then applied what we gleaned from 40-plus years of primary polls to all the polls from the first half of 2019, finding that former Vice President Joe Biden had the best chance of winning the nomination. His odds weren’t nearly as good as say, Hillary Clinton’s in 2016, but he was still in the lead. Now, with 2019 behind us, we can analyze surveys from the second half of the year to get an updated look at who might be best positioned to win the Democratic nomination.

Using national polls conducted between July 1 and Dec. 31, 2019, we calculated a polling average for each Democratic candidate — including those who have dropped out — and then adjusted it based on how well-known a candidate was during that period of time (measured on a slightly subjective five-tier scale, which is represented by the black boxes in the table below, where more boxes means higher name recognition).1 And although his unadjusted average fell slightly from the first half to the second half of the year, Biden continued to lead in the second half of 2019. (Note: This is a different approach than the one our forecast will take when it publishes sometime soon. The polling averages below are not the same as a candidate’s chances of winning, and the forecast will take many more factors into account than this somewhat quick-and-dirty analysis does.)

How the Democratic field polled throughout 2019

Candidates’ polling averages in the first half and second half of 2019, plus an adjusted version that accounts for name recognition

NAME RECOGNITION POLL AVG. ADJ. POLL AVG. CANDIDATE 1ST HALF 2ND HALF 1ST 2ND 1ST 2ND Joe Biden 31.6% 28.7% 31.6% 28.7% Elizabeth Warren 9.5 16.3 11.9 20.4 Bernie Sanders 18.6 16.5 18.6 16.5 Pete Buttigieg 4.5 5.6 11.4 9.4 Kamala Harris 8.7 5.9 14.6 7.4 Andrew Yang 0.8 2.3 4.0 3.9 Tulsi Gabbard 0.7 1.2 1.6 2.9 Beto O’Rourke 5.2 2.2 8.7 2.7 Cory Booker 3.0 2.1 4.9 2.6 Amy Klobuchar 1.5 1.4 2.5 2.4 Tom Steyer — — 0.9 0.0 2.3 Julián Castro 1.0 1.1 1.7 1.9 Michael Bennet 0.2 0.6 0.6 1.4 Marianne Williamson 0.1 0.5 0.6 1.2 John Delaney 0.4 0.5 1.1 1.2 Tim Ryan 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.2 Steve Bullock 0.3 0.4 1.4 1.1 Michael Bloomberg 0.6 0.7 1.1 0.9 Joe Sestak 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7 Bill de Blasio 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 Kirsten Gillibrand 0.8 0.2 1.3 0.4 Wayne Messam 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 John Hickenlooper 0.6 0.1 1.5 0.3 Seth Moulton 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.2 Mike Gravel 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.2 Jay Inslee 0.4 0.1 0.9 0.2 Deval Patrick — — 0.1 0.0 0.1 Eric Swalwell 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.0

Because the Democratic field is historically large, pollsters have asked about many candidates and potential candidates in 2019. We limited the table to individuals named in at least eight national surveys in the second half of 2019. Second-half data is based on polls that were conducted between July 1 and Dec. 31, 2019, and released by Jan. 3, 2020.

Source: Polls

In fact, Biden’s steady polling average over the year echoes what happened with three previous front-runners: Ronald Reagan in 1979, Bob Dole in 1995 and Al Gore in 1999, all of whom were leading the field in the second half of the calendar year before the election. All three had an unadjusted polling average of 30 percent or more in the first half of the year and were within 3 percentage points of their original number in the second half of the year (Reagan went from 34 to 37 percent; Dole, 46 to 44 percent; Gore, 54 to 55 percent). So the fact that Biden’s polling average has been pretty stable isn’t unprecedented — or even a bad sign. While only Reagan won the general election, all three went on to win their party’s nomination. A fourth candidate, Ted Kennedy in 1979, was in a similar situation the year before the election, and while he fell short of the nomination, it took a sitting president — Jimmy Carter — to block his path. However, those candidates all polled better than Biden — some significantly better — so Biden is by no means a sure bet to win the Democratic nomination, especially as he seems to have experienced a small downturn in the second half of the year, and not an uptick.

But according to our analysis, someone polling around where Biden was in the second half of the year has roughly a 35 percent chance of claiming the Democratic nomination. A 1-in-3 chance isn’t great, but this is still better than, say, Bernie Sanders’s or Elizabeth Warren’s chances. They essentially tied for second, with an unadjusted polling average around 16 percent in the second half of the year, which historically has meant a 10 percent chance of winning.

Former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg has also received top-tier billing in the 2020 primary, but in the second half of 2019, he actually only polled at about 6 percent nationally (without adjusting for name recognition), which historically has translated to roughly a 3 percent shot at winning the nomination. If you’re surprised that his odds aren’t higher, remember that in the first half of 2019, very few people knew who Buttigieg was. He was the only contender with between 20 and 40 percent name recognition to do well enough to have an adjusted polling average in the double digits, but as he has become a better-known quantity in the past few months, his adjusted average hasn’t grown accordingly. It actually dropped from the first half to the second half of the year — despite an uptick in his unadjusted average. In other words, although Buttigieg has become better known, his campaign may not be approaching its ceiling.

Then again, Buttigieg remains less well-known than Biden, Sanders or Warren, so his unadjusted polling average might undersell his chances. After all, he is battling for the lead in Iowa and New Hampshire, two contests that traditionally have had an outsized influence on modern presidential primaries. So Buttigieg’s disproportionate strength in those two states may point to one of the limitations of this analysis.

Early national polls conducted in the year before the first nominating contests do have predictive value, but remember there isn’t one national primary. Instead, parties choose presidential nominees via state-by-state elections over the course of a few months. And that sequential nature of the primary makes it hard for national polls to capture all the dynamics of the race — a candidate falling short of expectations in Iowa or unexpectedly winning both Iowa and New Hampshire can swiftly alter the playing field for the remaining primaries.

But having examined all the national polls from the last six months of 2019, the bottom line is that, at this point, Biden remains the favorite to win the Democratic nomination. That said, his grasp on the lead is tenuous. For instance, when thinking about Biden’s odds, it’s important to remember that the historical data suggests that the rest of the Democratic field combined has a larger chance of winning than Biden does on his own — 44 percent for all of the other candidates still in the race compared with Biden’s 35 percent shot.2 And this uncertainty around Biden as the front-runner lines up with what else we know about the race — Biden, Buttigieg and Sanders are fighting for the lead in Iowa while Biden and Sanders are neck-and-neck in New Hampshire, and Biden raised less money than either Sanders or Buttigieg in the final quarter of 2019. So as we jump into the new year and brace ourselves for the first two nominating contests, remember that Biden has the best chance of winning his party’s nomination, but it’s also quite possible that someone else will be facing off against President Trump this November.