#2019 measles outbreak

[tomorrowusa]

Anti-vax fanatic RFK Jr. took his war against vaccines to Samoa (population: 208,853) in 2019. Several months later, scores of people were dead and 1,867 people were hospitalized with measles.

The previous year two babies in Samoa had died from an improperly formulated mix of the MMR vaccine. Anti-vax maniacs like RFK Jr. seized on this accident to claim that MMR vaccines were deadly. Vaccination rates in Samoa plummeted and that set the stage for the deadly outbreak.

The roots of the tragedy stretch back to July 2018 and the deaths of two babies due to a medical error in the administration of an MMR vaccine, after the vaccine powder was mixed with expired muscle relaxant anaesthetic instead of water. The government shut down the vaccination programme for 10 months to investigate – allowing thousands of babies to go unvaccinated, against World Health Organization advice, and creating space for rumours to take hold. During the same period, Kennedy, who denies being anti-vaccine, had been hosted in Samoa. He visited four months before the measles outbreak was declared, in October 2019, meeting with government officials and anti-vaccine influencers in what health advocates and Ekeroma claim was a “significant disinformation campaign” stoking distrust in vaccines. Kennedy and his wife, Cheryl Hines, were special guests at Samoa’s 57th independence celebrations in June 2019, as part of a trip that came about after the anti-vaccination non-profit group Kennedy founded, Children’s Health Defense, connected with vocal Samoan vaccine critic and traditional healer Edwin Tamasese.

Because of anti-vax influencers, the MMR vaccination rate was way below that of other countries in the region.

Kennedy and his Children’s Health Defense group walked into this vacuum of mistrust – of western medicine, of the government – said Helen Petousis-Harris, a New Zealand-based vaccinologist and co-director of the Global Vaccine Data Network. When the government did restart its vaccination programme, people were reluctant: when the epidemic was declared on 16 October, the rate had dropped to 31%, down from 84% four years previously, according to WHO data. “The Samoan establishment handled the whole situation really badly and did not take the support and advice that was provided to them at the time, which is what allowed this to unravel and let RFK get in there,” Petousis-Harris said. “When you get people who are wealthy and influential going into a fragile setting, it’s like the top of the food chain visiting and meeting up with those who act as the megaphone. The impact was devastating.” The resurgence of disease when vaccine rates go down is predictable, she said. Kennedy has spread false claims that the MMR vaccines cause autism. According to the Centre for Countering Digital Hate, he is one of the world’s top disinformation super-spreaders. Public health officials in Samoa said anti-vaccination activists had been empowered by Kennedy, which had affected vaccine uptake.

Samoa has since re-instituted compulsory MMR vaccinations for babies. But the resumption came too late for those who were affected by the 2019 outbreak.

MMR vaccination in Samoa is now compulsory for babies over nine months. But in another small village outside Apia, where mother-of-eight Siiae Olilefauaitu sits on the grave of her one-year-old baby, Moana, in the encroaching dark, none of this is of any comfort. Her family lives at the end of this muddy track without power. They use a gas cooker and go to bed at nightfall. They could move in with family elsewhere but Olilefauaitu doesn’t want to leave Moana, who is buried outside the front door. “She is the first thing we see every day,” Olilefauaitu says. “She was a character, she was crawling, she smiled a lot. I can never forget her.”

RFK Jr. is now being entrusted to oversee epidemics in the United States by Donald Trump.

[allthecanadianpolitics]

This story is part of CBC Health's Second Opinion, a weekly analysis of health and medical science news emailed to subscribers on Saturday mornings. If you haven't subscribed yet, you can do that by clicking here.

As measles cases keep appearing in more parts of the country, new projections suggest there's a high chance Canada may experience a "sizable outbreak" — with anywhere from dozens to thousands of people infected if the disease strikes communities with low vaccination rates.

As of Friday, at least 31 cases of measles have been reported so far this year across Canada, according to a CBC News tally of provincial and regional figures released by public health teams.

That's already the largest annual total since 2019 and more than double the number of cases reported last year, as medical experts fear the number will rise while more Canadians travel in and out of the country this month for March break. [...]

Continue Reading.

Tagging: @politicsofcanada, @vague-humanoid

[feminist-space]

"Most of what “public health” does for Americans is taken for granted. Before the Covid pandemic, most people probably didn’t think about it at all. Yet the fact that, in most places in the United States, we can count on the water we drink to be safe, that the food we buy is not contaminated with e-coli or listeria, and that we don’t have to deal with dreaded childhood diseases that ripped through our communities only a few decades ago, is a testament to the tireless work of many, unheralded, often unknown heroes. This invisible safety net has been built up over the years, always underfunded and understaffed, always not-enough, but it’s all we’ve got.

...

By now, we’ve heard Kennedy’s views on everything from fluoride in drinking water to childhood vaccines, to threats to recreate the NIH and FDA in the image of his own quackery. Let’s be clear: Kennedy’s views are not “alternative” to orthodoxy, meant to shake up the system—they are verifiably false. They are nonsense.

Let’s take his claims on fluoride as an example. RFK Jr. wrote on X in early November: “Fluoride is an industrial waste associated with arthritis, bone fractures, bone cancer, IQ loss, neurodevelopmental disorders, and thyroid disease.” Um—no. In high doses over prolonged periods of time—as with many other substances (even water and oxygen!)—exposure to fluoride can be a problem, but not in the small concentrations we see in drinking water. Lest we forget: Fluoride has been a bugaboo of the far right since the 1950s, when fluoridation was supposed to be part of a communist plot to take over America.

And since conspiracy theories know no borders, we can also look at a natural experiment up in Calgary, Canada, for further evidence. In 2011, Calgary’s’s city council banned fluoridation, and now is set to reintroduce it next year. Why? Because since fluoridation ended, cavities in children’s teeth have become more numerous and larger, often requiring treatment under general anesthesia and/or intravenous antibiotic therapy to fight infections associated with tooth decay. As one researcher at the University of Calgary has said, the decision to ban fluoridation had a clear result: It was a source of “avoidable and potentially life-threatening disease, pain, suffering, misery and expense…especially [for] very young children and their families.”

As for vaccination, Kennedy’s views are long-standing and well-known. He has suggested that “there is no vaccine that is safe and effective,” and he still clings to the long-debunked idea that vaccines cause autism. More recently, during the Covid pandemic, he created a multimillion-dollar anti-vaccine juggernaut to dissuade people from getting vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2.

There is no person right now more vital to the anti-vaccine movement than RFK Jr., and his impact has been deadly. By convincing people to forgo routine pediatric vaccinations, he has endangered the lives of thousands of kids, stoked fear in families with autistic children, and in at least once instance was partially responsible for a devastating outbreak of measles. In 2019, 83 people, mostly children, died of the preventable disease in Samoa. While Kennedy has denied that his words and actions were responsible for the outbreak, he has supported anti-vaccination efforts on the islands, written to the nation’s prime minister about the dangers of vaccines, and visited Samoa to meet with anti-vaxxers and subsequently praised them for their work. As Derek Lowe, a columnist from the United States’ leading scientific journal, Science, has said: “Kennedy’s views on science and medicine are not only wrong, they are actively harmful and destructive. He has used them to make a great deal of money, and he has lied about them to interviewers and reporters whenever he finds it convenient.”

...

RFK Jr. is the poster boy for the new Trump administration, a rich man who never has had to worry about a thing in his life, putting the lives of ordinary Americans in jeopardy because he thinks he knows better than scientists. In fact, the man who thought it was a good idea to stage a hit-and-run with a dead baby bear and a bicycle in Central Park has shown a lack of judgment across the board for a long while. But he is part of an emerging kakistocracy-in-waiting that will be run by plutocrats and zealots. Our public health system in America is fragile and shouldn’t be a plaything. Once he’s done with his games, all the king’s horses and all the king’s men may not be able to put our public health infrastructure back together again. The damage may be lasting and profound.

But we are not powerless. So much of public health happens locally—and we can protect this precious national resource by speaking up and speaking out, at our city or town council meetings, calling and writing our state representatives, our mayors and our governors. This is going to be necessary work. As my Yale colleague Timothy Snyder has said: “Defend institutions.… Institutions do not protect themselves. So choose an institution you care about and take its side.” This may be your local public health department or Planned Parenthood clinic, a mental health clinic or needle exchange program, or services for LGBTQ+ or immigrant populations in your neighborhood.

These are all part of what makes public health happen day in and day out in our communities. Deprive RFK Jr. and Donald Trump of their power; take it away from them with focus and tenacity. Chip away at their campaign to destroy public health in America. These kinds of small acts will add up and will make a difference. If these men are the disease, let us be the cure."

[covid-safer-hotties]

Humans infecting animals infecting humans − from COVID-19 to bird flu, preventing pandemics requires protecting all species - Published Sept 4, 2024

I remember back in 2022, someone mocked me for worrying about zoonosis of new coivd strains. The science backs up my thoughts once again: We have to protect *everyone,* even critters, from disease to prevent future pandemics.

Authors Anna Fagre Veterinary Microbiologist and Wildlife Epidemiologist, Colorado State University

Sadie Jane Ryan Professor of Medical Geography, University of Florida

When the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic on March 11, 2020, humans had been the only species with reported cases of the disease. While early genetic analyses pointed to horseshoe bats as the evolutionary hosts of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, no reports had yet surfaced indicating it could be transmitted from humans to other animal species.

Less than two weeks later, a report from Belgium marked the first infection in a domestic cat – presumably by its owner. Summer 2020 saw news of COVID-19 outbreaks and subsequent cullings in mink farms across Europe and fears of similar calls for culling in North America. Humans and other animals on and around mink farms tested positive, raising questions about the potential for a secondary wildlife reservoir of COVID-19. That is, the virus could infect and establish a transmission cycle in a different species than the one in which it originated.

For example, spillback has been a long-standing threat to endangered great apes, even among populations with infrequent human contact. The chimpanzees of Gombe National Park, made famous by Jane Goodall’s work, have suffered outbreaks of measles and other respiratory diseases likely resulting from environmental persistence of pathogens spread by people living nearby or by ecotourists.

We are researchers who study the mechanisms driving cross-species disease transmission and how disease affects both wildlife conservation and people. Emerging outbreaks have underscored the importance of understanding how threats to wildlife health shape the emergence and spread of zoonotic pathogens. Our research suggests that looking at historical outbreaks can help predict and prevent the next pandemic.

Spillback has happened before Our research group wanted to assess how often spillback had been reported in the years leading up to the COVID-19 pandemic. A retrospective analysis not only allows us to identify specific trends or barriers in reporting spillback events but also helps us understand where new emergent threats are most likely.

We examined historical spillback events involving different groups of pathogens across the animal kingdom, accounting for variations in geography, methods and sample sizes. We synthesized scientific reports of spillback across nearly a century prior to the COVID-19 pandemic – from the 1920s to 2019 – which included diseases ranging from salmonella and intestinal parasites to human tuberculosis, influenza and polio.

We were also interested in determining whether detection and reporting bias might influence what’s known about human-to-animal pathogen transmission. Charismatic megafauna – often defined as larger mammals such as pandas, gorillas, elephants and whales that evoke emotion in people – tend to be overrepresented in wildlife epidemiology and conservation efforts. They receive more public attention and funding than smaller and less visible species.

Complicating this further are difficulties in monitoring wild populations of small animals, as they decompose quickly and are frequently scavenged by larger animals. This drastically reduces the time window during which researchers can investigate outbreaks and collect samples.

The results of our historical analysis support our suspicions that most reports described outbreaks in large charismatic megafauna. Many were captive, such as in zoos or rehabilitation centers, or semi-captive, such as well-studied great apes.

Despite the litany of papers published on new pathogens discovered in bats and rodents, the number of studies examining pathogens transmitted from humans to these animals was scant. However, small mammals occupying diverse ecological niches, including animals that live near human dwellings – such as deer mice, rats and skunks – may be more likely to not only share their pathogens with people but also to be infected by human pathogens.

COVID-19 and pandemic flu In our historical analysis of spillback prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the only evidence we found supporting the establishment of a human pathogen in a wildlife population were two 2019 reports describing H1N1 infection in striped skunks. Like coronaviruses, influenza A viruses such as H1N1 are adept at switching hosts and can infect a broad range of species.

Unlike coronaviruses, however, their widespread transmission is facilitated by migratory waterfowl such as ducks and geese. Exactly how these skunks became infected with H1N1 and for how long remains unclear.

Shortly after we completed the analysis for our study, reports describing widespread COVID-19 infection of white-tailed deer throughout North America began surfacing in November 2021. In some areas, the prevalence of infection was as high as 80% despite little evidence of sickness in the deer.

This ubiquitous mammal has effectively become a secondary reservoir of COVID-19 in North America. Further, genetic evidence suggests that SARS-CoV-2 evolves three times faster in white-tailed deer than in humans, potentially increasing the risk of seeding new variants into humans and other animals. There is already evidence of deer-to-human transmission of a previously unseen variant of COVID-19.

There are over 30 million white-tailed deer in North America, many in agricultural and suburban areas. Surveillance efforts to monitor viral evolution in white-tailed deer can help identify emerging variants and further transmission from deer populations into people or domestic animals.

Investigations into related species revealed that the risk of spillback varies. For instance, white-tailed deer and mule deer are highly susceptible to COVID-19 in the lab, while elk are not.

H5N1 and the US dairy herd Since 2022, the spread of H5N1 has affected a broad range of avian and mammalian species around the globe – foxes, skunks, raccoons, opossums, polar bears, coyotes and seals, to name a few. Some of these populations are threatened or endangered, and aggressive surveillance efforts to monitor viral spread are ongoing.

Earlier this year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported the presence of H5N1 in the milk of dairy cows. Genetic analyses point to an introduction of the virus into cows as early as December 2023, probably in the Texas Panhandle. Since then, it has affected 178 livestock herds in 13 states as of August 2024.

How the virus got into dairy cow populations remains undetermined, but it was likely by migratory waterfowl infected with the virus. Efforts to delineate exactly how the virus moves among and between herds are underway, though it appears contaminated milking equipment rather than aerosol transmission, may be the culprit.

Given the ability of influenza A viruses such as avian flu to infect a broad range of species, it is critical that surveillance efforts target not only dairy cows but also animals living on or around affected farms. Monitoring high-risk areas for cross-species transmission, such as where livestock, wildlife and people interact, provides information not only about how widespread a disease is in a given population – in this case, dairy cows – but also allows researchers to identify susceptible species that come into contact with them.

To date, H5N1 has been detected in several animals found dead on affected dairy farms, including cats, birds and a raccoon. As of August 2024, four people in close contact with infected dairy cows have tested positive, one of whom developed respiratory symptoms. Other wildlife and domestic animal species are still at risk. Similar surveillance efforts are underway to monitor H5N1 transmission from poultry to humans.

Humans are only 1 part of the network The language often used to describe cross-species transmission fails to encapsulate its complexity and nuances. Given the number of species that have been infected with COVID-19 throughout the pandemic, many scientists have called for limiting the use of the terms spillover and spillback because they describe the transmission of pathogens to and from humans. This suggests that disease and its implications begin and end with humans.

Considering humans as one node in a large network of transmission possibilities can help researchers more effectively monitor COVID-19, H5N1 and other emerging zoonoses. This includes systems-thinking approaches such as One Health or Planetary Health that capture human interdependence with the health of the total environment.

[mariacallous]

[justinspoliticalcorner]

Dylan Scott at Vox:

Measles, mumps, and polio are supposed to be diseases of the past. In the early to mid-20th century, scientists developed vaccines that effectively eliminated the risk of anyone getting sick or dying from illnesses that had killed millions over millennia of human history. Vaccines, alongside sanitized water and antibiotics, have marked the epoch of modern medicine. The US was at the cutting edge of eliminating these diseases, which helped propel life expectancy and economic growth in the postwar era. Montana native Maurice Hilleman, the so-called father of modern vaccines, developed flu shots, hepatitis shots, and the measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine in the 1950s and ’60s, which became virtually universally adopted among Americans.

Smallpox, the most common form of which has a 30 percent fatality rate, has been eradicated. Mitch McConnell, Republican titan of the Senate, may be the last major public figure still afflicted by a childhood case of polio, less than a century after it paralyzed a sitting American president. Measles likely infected millions of people annually in the US in the 1800s, although precise estimates from the era are hard to come by. In the early 1990s, thousands of people died from the disease every year. It was still infecting more than half a million and killing hundreds per year on average in the 1950s and ’60s, before the vaccine debuted. Diphtheria, a deadly respiratory infection, killed more than 1,800 people annually between 1936 and 1945 as the vaccine against it was still being rolled out. It has not killed anybody in the United States in decades. The vaccines that made this possible are among the most important achievements in human history. And yet many Americans appear to be losing faith in them, a worrying trend that could accelerate if President-elect Donald Trump succeeds in handing control of the top US health agency into the hands of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the country’s foremost vaccine denier.

Kennedy has spent much of his public career pushing the thoroughly debunked theory of a link between autism and childhood vaccines. He has supported an anti-vaccine group in Samoa, where measles vaccination rates have since fallen off; a 2019 outbreak killed 83 people just a few months after Kennedy visited the island and met with anti-vaccine advocates. He has likewise cast doubt on the safety and efficacy of the Covid vaccines, a position that helped nudge the lifelong Democrat toward Trump. After Kennedy dropped his own presidential campaign this year, he became Trump’s most influential health adviser and last week was nominated by the president-elect to lead the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS).

[...] As long-accepted, lifesaving public health measures increasingly become politically polarized, routine vaccination rates are rapidly declining in much of the US. In the 2019–2020 school year, three states had less than 90 percent of K–12 students vaccinated against measles, mumps, and rubella. By the 2023–2024 school year, 14 states had fallen below that threshold. The number of states with more than 95 percent of schoolchildren vaccinated — the preferred level of coverage to prevent outbreaks — dropped from 20 to 11 during that same period.

Smallpox, measles, and polio, which were thought to be eradicated with mass vaccinations, but the anti-vaxxer extremist movement’s rise in influence in recent years threatens to undo decades worth of progress.

[allthebrazilianpolitics]

PAHO re-verifies Brazil as a measles-free country

The Director of the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), Dr. Jarbas Barbosa, and the President of Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, today confirmed that Brazil has been re-verified as free of measles, rubella, and congenital rubella syndrome (CRS). This means that the Americas has now recovered its status as a region free of endemic measles, a milestone first achieved in 2016.

"We congratulate Brazil on this significant achievement," Dr. Barbosa said. "This effort reflects Brazil's strong commitment to public health and protecting its population from vaccine-preventable diseases. Measles not only impacts health but has devastating consequences for the economy and well-being of countries," he emphasized.

The re-verification was carried out by the Measles and Rubella Elimination Regional Monitoring and Re-Verification Commission, an independent group of experts convened by PAHO, which evaluated the evidence presented by Brazil.

A measles outbreak that began in 2018 led to the resumption of endemic transmission of the virus in Brazil in 2019, when more than 21,700 cases were reported. In response, the Ministry of Health, in coordination with state and municipal health professionals, implemented several measures. These included microplanning high-quality vaccination activities within the routine program, decentralizing molecular testing to identify the virus, and training rapid response teams. By June 2022, Brazil had recorded the last case of endemic measles.

Continue reading.

[violetsandshrikes]

Reminder to make sure your vaccines are up to date!

There’s currently campaigns running to try and close the vaccine gap, because for a number of reasons lots of young kiwis don’t have both measles immunisations. Heavily, heavily recommend you make sure your vaccines are up-to-date and encourage people around you to have them as well!

[lotus-tower]

it’s not that there aren’t very real challenges and difficulties that come with covid mitigation

but at the core of it even the measures that require no imagination would be highly effective in driving down transmission, which would in return make other activities that are more difficult to mitigate infection risk for less risky

like we’re sitting here pretending we don’t understand the concept of ventilation or filtration, or that the idea of staying home when sick is weird and alien, or that it’s inconceivable that putting something on your face that filters air will reduce sickness. and we’re pretending that it’s normal for people to get sick at the hospital because hospitals are overflowing and have so many outbreaks happen in them. we’re acting like doing things outdoors or opening the windows is a concept that has never been seen before.

there are many ways we could transform society into one that respects disabled people and that values health and well-being over profit, but that’s honestly not even on the table at the moment. what we’re talking about is rejecting the use of ordinary tools and technologies that have literally been used for decades. I’ve heard about teachers and healthcare workers who purposefully go out of their way to turn off air filters that have been bought for them. repeatedly, every day. I’ve watched a video where a farmer wore an N95 to clean the chicken coop due to particles, but took it off to go to the store.

what’s happening right now isn’t just “people did the calculation and decided money is more important than people’s lives” in a pure rational way. because that’s not how capitalism works anyway. we all know by now that happy workers are more productive, some companies saw good results when going remote for the first time under lockdown, etc. but the goal is to control workers as a class, and to preserve the status quo.

obviously, long covid will cost more to the economy than updating ventilation will. obviously, children who are sick all the time won’t perform as well at school. obviously, reducing infection would reduce the burden on collapsing hospitals. prevention is always cheaper than attempted treatment. but these facts don’t mean anything. people are ideologically committed to covid denialism to such a degree that it’s pushed them to do utterly absurd things. they’re overcorrecting like crazy in order to try to get to the 2019 “normal” state.

people are trying to gaslight us into believing that we were always sick all the time, that measles is a normal winter illness like the flu, that PPE measures were like this before the pandemic. scientific research and facts aren’t going to convince these people.

and it’s just ridiculous because the situation at hand is literally one where improving air quality, a multipurpose measure with no downsides whatsoever, is a no-go specifically because it could reduce covid, whether that’s the stated goal or not, and they balk at the idea of accidentally reducing covid transmission.

meanwhile, private bioscience firms are trying to invent ridiculously complex long covid treatments with hundreds of millions of funds from rich sponsors. and that’s okay, because that’s a Thing. rich genius saviors are always okay. but opening the windows for free? for prevention? to prevent getting the untreatable illness to begin with? that’s weird and unfathomable

[a-typical]

Then what about the liberals themselves? Turns out, the following list of beliefs and practices lands squarely in their corral: crystal healing, therapeutic touch, feather energy, magnetic therapy, homeopathy, astrology, anti-GMO, and anti-pharma. What all these ideas and movements have in common is a flat-out rejection of some or all mainstream science relevant to each subject.

Before the Trump administration and the 2020 conservative-fed resistance to the rapidly developed COVID-19 vaccine, the anti-vaccine movement (another science-rejecting platform), was led primarily by liberal-leaning communities. They practically invented the brand. For example, in 2000 the World Health Organization declared measles in the US to be “eliminated” based on the success of ongoing vaccine programs. Yet in 2019 the US logged nearly 1,300 cases of it. Who hosted most of those outbreaks? The perennially blue states of Washington, Oregon, California, New York, and New Jersey, where many parents refuse to get their children vaccinated. Now, with the anti-vax movement turning purple—as it spills into conservative enclaves—the combined total of anti-vaxers may represent as much as one-fourth of the nation.

— Starry Messenger: Cosmic Perspectives on Civilization - Neil deGrasse Tyson (2022)

[broadlyepi]

BroadlyEpi Newsletter

Hello! This newsletter will have both last weeks content and some less recent articles as well (excluding archived MMWR Boosters as otherwise that’d be way too many links). I hope you’re all doing great!

MMWR Boosters (Current Edition):

MMWR Booster for: Outbreak Linked to Morel Mushroom Exposure — Montana, 2023, Weekly / March 14, 2024 / 73(10);219–224

MMWR Booster for: Notes from the Field: Surveillance for Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children — United States, 2023 , Weekly / March 14, 2024 / 73(10);225–228

MMWR Booster for: Surveillance of Waterborne Disease Outbreaks Associated with Drinking Water — United States, 2015–2020 , Surveillance Summaries / March 14, 2024 / 73(1);1–23

MMWR Booster for: Notes from the Field: Measles Outbreak — Cook County, Illinois, October–November 2023, Weekly / March 14, 2024 / 73(10);229–230

MMWR Booster for: Surveillance for Coccidioidomycosis, Histoplasmosis, and Blastomycosis During the COVID-19 Pandemic — United States, 2019–2021 / Weekly / March 21, 2024 / 73(11);239–244

MMWR Booster for: Tuberculosis Preventive Treatment Update — U.S. President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, 36 Countries, 2016–2023 / Weekly / March 21, 2024 / 73(11);233–238

MMWR Booster for: Notes from the Field: Expanded Laboratory Testing for Varicella — Minnesota, 2016–2023 / Weekly / March 21, 2024 / 73(11);245–246

Epi Explained, ThuRsday and PyFriday Tutorials:

Epi Explained: Understanding T-Tests, Relative Risk and SIR Models

ThuRsday Tutorial: How to Calculate T-Tests, Relative Risk and SIR Models in R

PyFriday Tutorial: How to Calculate T-Tests, Relative Risk, and SIR Models in Python

As a final general announcement, we’re happy to report that BroadlyEpi is now a major sponsor of the Twin Strangers Production network of Audio Drama Podcasts. If you haven’t checked out any of their great work, you absolutely should.

[sweaterkittensahoy]

Robert Kennedy, Jr. claiming "the man" is keeping the truth about vaccine dangers locked away.

Bobby. Come here.

Come. Here.

YOU'RE A FUCKING KENNEDY. YOU ARE THE MAN.

And like every anti-vaxxer, he's got fucking blood on his hands. The 2019 American Samoa measles outbreak was directly caused by his anti-vaxx work.

[covid-safer-hotties]

Reference saved in our archive

There has been speculation about when in the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic we will be able to live with the virus in a manner that does not disrupt most peoples’ lives. Much of this discussion has focused on herd immunity thresholds (Box 1). As commonly understood, herd immunity thresholds are reached when a sufficient proportion of the population is vaccinated or has recovered from natural infection with a pathogen such that its community circulation is reduced below the level of significant public health threat. For example, this threshold has been met with polio and measles circulation in the United States.

Box 1. Herd Immunity Threshold A herd immunity threshold is the proportion of a population with immunity against a communicable disease agent (resulting from innate immunity, natural infection, or vaccination) above which transmission of the agent is largely prevented, except for sporadic outbreaks in undervaccinated or otherwise incompletely protected subsets of individuals.

However, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes COVID-19, is so different from polio and measles that classical herd immunity may not readily apply to it. Important differences include the phenotypic stability of polio and measles viruses, and their ability to elicit long-term protective immunity, compared to SARS-CoV-2. For these and other reasons, controlling COVID-19 by increasing herd immunity may be an elusive goal.

[mariacallous]

With 4,773 registered cases since March last year, Romania has the fifth highest rate of measles infections in the wider European region and the highest in the European Union, according to the latest data from the World Health Organisation, WHO.

Kazakhstan tops the chart with 36,292 cases registered between March 2023 and April 2024, followed by Azerbaijan [28,855], Russia [18,977] and Kyrgyzstan [14,472].

In all five countries, vaccination rates are low.

The Romanian government has urged parents to vaccinate their children against measles, with Health Minister Alexandru Rafila warning in mid-May that, “in general, outbreaks occur where there are communities with a low degree of vaccination coverage”.

According to the WHO statistics, the incidence of measles in Romania is 239.94 per 100,000 inhabitants.

Romania’s own figures are even more worrying. According to the health ministry, 15,763 measles cases were registered between January 1, 2023, and May 19, 2024, 16 of which resulted in death.

In 1990, the measles vaccination rate in Romania was over 90 per cent. By 2019 it was at 86 per cent and in 2021 it had fallen to 81 per cent, amid growing ‘antivaxxer’ sentiment, particularly on the back of the COVID-19 pandemic.

According to the WHO, Turkey is right behind Romania with 4,698 cases registered between April 2023 and March 2024.

“There are 200-300 recorded cases ever month, and in May, June and July [2023] it peaked at 1,000,” Emrah Kirimli from the Turkish Medical Association, TTB, was quoted as telling the Turkish daily Cumhuriyet in January.

“Measles is a deadly disease,” he said. “It’s a serious illness.”

[mostlysignssomeportents]

This day in history

I'm on tour with my new novel The Bezzle! Catch me TOMORROW in Seattle with Neal Stephenson, then Portland, Phoenix and more!

#20yrsago Universal crackpot spam solution rebuttal https://craphound.com/spamsolutions.txt

#15yrsago Steampunk: Love the machine, hate the factory https://web.archive.org/web/20090301121548/http://www.make-digital.com/make/vol17/?pg=16&pm=1

#15yrsago RIP, Philip Jose Farmer https://web.archive.org/web/20090228143743/http://www.pjfarmer.com/

#15yrsago Authors´ Guild vs. reality: Kindles and read-aloud https://memex.craphound.com/2009/02/25/authors-guild-vs-reality-kindles-and-read-aloud/

#10yrsago DICE: emulator for hardwired, discrete-circuit games from the 1970s https://adamulation.blogspot.com

#10yrsago It’s Complicated: The Social Lives of Networked Teens (must, MUST read) https://memex.craphound.com/2014/02/25/its-complicated-the-social-lives-of-networked-teens-must-must-read/

#10yrsago GCHQ’s dirty-tricking psyops groups: infiltrating, disrupting and discrediting political and protest groups https://memex.craphound.com/2014/02/25/gchqs-dirty-tricking-psyops-groups-infiltrating-disrupting-and-discrediting-political-and-protest-groups/

#5yrsago Costa Rican measles outbreak traced to unvaccinated French tourists https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/measles-costa-rica-french-tourist-boy-anti-vax-vaccination-who-global-health-threat-infection-mmr-a8794256.html

#5yrsago France fines UBS €3.7b for helping rich French residents launder more than €10b https://www.thelocal.fr/20190220/breaking-french-court-hits-swiss-bank-ubs-with-37-billion-fine-in-french-tax-fraud-case

#5yrsago German neofascists used Qanon to expand their reach https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-fringe-groups-are-using-qanon-to-amplify-their-wild-messages

#5yrsago Lime scooters have a software bug that causes them to hurl their riders to the ground https://qz.com/1558033/a-software-malfunction-is-injuring-lime-riders-around-the-world

#5yrsago Artists against Article 13: when Big Tech and Big Content make a meal of creators, it doesn’t matter who gets the bigger piece https://memex.craphound.com/2019/02/25/artists-against-article-13-when-big-tech-and-big-content-make-a-meal-of-creators-it-doesnt-matter-who-gets-the-bigger-piece/

[justinspoliticalcorner]

Ryan Adamczeski at The Advocate:

Out Democratic Colorado Gov. Jared Polis is clarifying his beliefs after stirring confusion and outrage among his constituents by celebrating Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s appointment to the Department of Health and Human Services — just months after mocking his qualifications.

Polis said on X, formerly Twitter, on Thursday that he is "excited by the news" that Donald Trump has chosen anti-vaccine and anti-transgender Kennedy to be secretary of Health and Human Services. "He helped us defeat vaccine mandates in Colorado in 2019 and will help make America healthy again by shaking up HHS and FDA," Polis wrote. "I hope he leans into personal choice on vaccines rather than bans (which I think are terrible, just like mandates) but what I’m most optimistic about is taking on big pharma and the corporate ag oligopoly to improve our health." The post was a stark shift from Polis' previous comments on Kennedy, including those he made in August in reaction to Kennedy's campaigning efforts with Trump and his promise to "Make America healthy again.” "Not sure how bringing back Measles and bringing back Polio makes anyone more healthy…" Polis wrote, in reference to Kennedy's anti-vaccine beliefs.

[...] "While opposed to RFK’s positions on a host of issues, including vaccines and banning fluoridation, he would appreciate seeing action on pesticides and efforts to lower prescription drug costs and if Trump is going to nominate someone like him then let them also take on soda, processed food, pesticides and heavy metals contamination," they said. "But he definitely does not endorse actions that would lead to measles outbreaks and opposes unscientific propaganda that undermines confidence in the lifesaving impact of vaccines. The Governor himself was vaccinated last week with the flu vaccine and the COVID vaccine.”

Shame on you, Colorado Gov. Jared Polis (D) for even considering giving praise to anti-vaxxer extremist RFK Jr.