#1.5C

[notwiselybuttoowell]

There is “no credible pathway to 1.5C in place”, the UN’s environment agency has said, and the failure to reduce carbon emissions means the only way to limit the worst impacts of the climate crisis is a “rapid transformation of societies”.

The UN environment report analysed the gap between the CO2 cuts pledged by countries and the cuts needed to limit any rise in global temperature to 1.5C, the internationally agreed target. Progress has been “woefully inadequate” it concluded.

Current pledges for action by 2030, if delivered in full, would mean a rise in global heating of about 2.5C and catastrophic extreme weather around the world. A rise of 1C to date has caused climate disasters in locations from Pakistan to Puerto Rico.

If the long-term pledges by countries to hit net zero emissions by 2050 were delivered, global temperature would rise by 1.8C. But the glacial pace of action means meeting even this temperature limit was not credible, the UN report said.

Countries agreed at the Cop26 climate summit a year ago to increase their pledges. But with Cop27 looming, only a couple of dozen have done so and the new pledges would shave just 1% off emissions in 2030. Global emissions must fall by almost 50% by that date to keep the 1.5C target alive.

Inger Andersen, the executive director of the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), said: “This report tells us in cold scientific terms what nature has been telling us all year through deadly floods, storms and raging fires: we have to stop filling our atmosphere with greenhouse gases, and stop doing it fast.

“We had our chance to make incremental changes, but that time is over. Only a root-and-branch transformation of our economies and societies can save us from accelerating climate disaster.

“It is a tall, and some would say impossible, order to reform the global economy and almost halve greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, but we must try,” she said. “Every fraction of a degree matters: to vulnerable communities, to ecosystems, and to every one of us.”

Andersen said action would also bring cleaner air, green jobs and access to electricity for millions.

The UN secretary general, António Guterres, said: “Emissions remain at dangerous and record highs and are still rising. We must close the emissions gap before climate catastrophe closes in on us all.”

Prof David King, a former UK chief scientific adviser, said: “The report is a dire warning to all countries – none of whom are doing anywhere near enough to manage the climate emergency.”

The report found that existing carbon-cutting policies would cause 2.8C of warming, while pledged policies cut this to 2.6C. Further pledges, dependent on funding flowing from richer to poorer countries, cut this again to 2.4C.

New reports from the International Energy Agency and the UN’s climate body reached similarly stark conclusions, with the latter finding that the national pledges barely cut projected emissions in 2030 at all, compared with 2019 levels.

The UNEP report said the required societal transformation could be achieved through government action, including on regulation and taxes, redirecting the international financial system, and changes to consumer behaviour.

It said the transition to green electricity, transport and buildings was under way, but needed to move faster. All sectors had to avoid locking in new fossil fuel infrastructure, contrary to plans in many countries, including the UK, to develop new oil and gas fields. A study published this week found “large consensus” across all published research that new oil and gas fields are “incompatible” with the 1.5C target.

The UNEP report said about a third of climate-heating emissions came from the global food system and these were set to double by 2050. But the sector could be transformed if governments changed farm subsidies – which are overwhelmingly harmful to the environment – and food taxes, cut food waste and helped develop new low-carbon foods.

Individual citizens could adopt greener, healthier diets as well, the report said.

Andersen said: “I’m not preaching one diet over another, but we need to be mindful that if we all want steak every night for dinner, it won’t compute.”

Redirecting global financial flows to green investments was vital, the report said. Most financial groups had shown limited action to date, despite their stated intentions, due to short-term interests, it said. A transformation to a low-emissions economy was expected to need at least $4tn-6tn a year in investment, the report said, about 2% of global financial assets.

Despite Andersen’s doubts that the necessary emission cuts can be made by 2030, she pointed to the plummeting costs of renewables, the rollout of electric transport, major climate legislation in the US, and moves by pension funds to back low-carbon investments.

“It’s my job to be the ever hopeful person, but [also] to be the realistic optimist,” she said. “[This report] is the mirror that we’re holding up to the world. Obviously, I want to be proven wrong and see countries taking ambitious steps. But so far, that’s not what we’ve seen.”

[kp777]

Velshi: It’s up to us to bring down the temperature (literally)

MSNBC

May 20, 2023

For the first time ever, global temperatures are expected to breach a level that is 1.5-degrees celsius higher than pre-industrial times within the next five years. That’s according to a new report by the World Meteorological Organization. It’s a threshold scientists have been warning about for years. This is a temperature rise we’ve all been warned to avoid at all costs - it is essentially the doomsday threshold for global warming. When you think of climate change or global warming, you might think about those searing hot summer days when the temperature exceeds 100-degrees Fahrenheit. Why would another degree or so make much of a difference? When we’re talking about the earth’s average temperature, even a fraction of a degree can have blistering consequences. It means melting glaciers, rising sea levels and extreme weather events. And when the earth’s average temperature increase surpasses 1.5 degrees the situation will go from bad to much, much worse. And irreversible. It’s up to us - as humans - to bring down the temperature. We created this mess; we can clean it up too.

[greenfue]

COP28 Presidency receives 'Abu Dhabi Interfaith Statement for COP28' at Global Faith Leaders' Summit

COP28 President Dr. Sultan Al Jaber addressed the Global Faith Leaders’ Summit in Abu Dhabi, received the Abu Dhabi Interfaith Statement on climate change from faith leaders and promised to carry their message forward to the world at COP28. The Faith Leaders’ Summit was convened under the patronage of His Highness Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, President of the UAE and was attended by Sheikh…

[n0thingiscool]

2023 on track to be world's hottest year on record, temperatures exceed 1.5C above pre-industrial levels for first time

Welp, this is the start of mass extinction in the eyes of the environmental experts.

We will either let the fossil fuel industry and all it's bootlickers kill us or we'll have to get to them soon.

This year is now almost certain to become Earth's warmest on record after a hot July and August saw global temperatures reach the Paris Agreement target of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. This is the first time the 1.5C threshold has been passed for more than one month, and only the second time it has ever been exceeded, behind February 2016. Data released last week from Copernicus, a branch of the European Union Space Programme, shows August was 1.59C warmer than 1850-1900 levels, following a 1.6C increase in July. The recent records have now lifted the year-to-date global temperature to the end of August to 1.35C above pre-industrial levels, just 0.01C behind 2016 — the current record holder, according to Copernicus data.

[tornadoquest]

Tornado Quest Top Science Links For May 11 - 18, 2023 #science #weather #climate #climatechange #drought #floodsafety #tadd

Hello to one and all. I’m glad you stopped by. In addition to several science stories this week, I’ll continue with more severe weather safety infographics for you. This week, the focus is on flash flood safety. We’ll also take a look at the latest US Drought Monitor. Let’s get started. Tornado Quest micro-podcast for May 11 – 18, 2023 Photo by Andriy Nestruiev:…

[europahoynews]

Las promesas climáticas aún no son suficientes para 1.5C: ONU

Las promesas climáticas aún no son suficientes para 1.5C: ONU

Solo en el último año, el mundo se vio azotado por olas de calor cada vez más intensas y sequías que marchitaron los cultivos. Las promesas climáticas internacionales siguen lejos de cumplirse para limitar el aumento de la temperatura a 1,5 grados centígrados, según un informe de la ONU publicado el miércoles, menos de dos semanas antes de las negociaciones de alto riesgo para abordar el…

[ponku-po]

first days past +2.0C yipeeee!!!

[thoughtlessarse]

The UN weather agency is predicting an 80% chance that average global temperatures will surpass the 1.5C target laid out in the landmark Paris climate accord within the next five years. The World Meteorological Organisation said on Wednesday that the global mean near-surface temperature for each year from 2024 to 2028 is expected to range between 1.1C and 1.9C hotter than at the start of the industrial era. It also estimated that there is nearly a one in two chance – 47% – that the average global temperatures over that entire five-year span could top 1.5C, an increase from just under a one in three chance projected for the 2023-2027 span. The report was cited in a sweeping speech about the threat of climate change by UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres to mark World Environment Day.

continue reading

In February, the world had already exceeded the 1.5C target over a 12-month period for the first time.

[female-malice]

In 2023, the relentless increase in global heating will continue, bringing ever more disruptive weather that is the signature calling card of accelerating climate breakdown. 

According to NASA, 2022 was one of the hottest years ever recorded on Earth. This is extraordinary, because the recurrent climate pattern across the tropical Pacific—known as ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation)—was in its cool phase. During this phase, called La Niña, the waters of the equatorial Pacific are noticeably cooler than normal, which influences weather patterns around the world.

One consequence of La Niña is that it helps keep a lid on global temperatures. This means that—despite the recent widespread heat waves, wildfires and droughts—we have actually been spared the worst. The scary thing is that this La Niña will end and eventually transition into the better-known El Niño, which sees the waters of the equatorial Pacific becoming much warmer. When it does, the extreme weather that has rampaged across our planet in 2021 and 2022 will pale into insignificance. 

Current forecasts suggest that La Niña will continue into early 2023, making it—fortuitously for us—one of the longest on record (it began in Spring 2020). Then, the equatorial Pacific will begin to warm again. Whether or not it becomes hot enough for a fully fledged El Niño to develop, 2023 has a very good chance—without the cooling influence of La Niña—of being the hottest year on record.

 A global average temperature rise of 1.5°C is widely regarded as marking a guardrail beyond which climate breakdown becomes dangerous. Above this figure, our once-stable climate will begin to collapse in earnest, becoming all-pervasive, affecting everyone, and insinuating itself into every aspect of our lives. In 2021, the figure (compared to the 1850–1900 average) was 1.2°C, while in 2019—before the development of the latest La Niña—it was a worryingly high 1.36°C. As the heat builds again in 2023, it is perfectly possible that we will touch or even exceed 1.5°C for the first time.

But what will this mean exactly? I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the record for the highest recorded temperature—currently 54.4°C (129.9°F) in California's Death Valley—shattered. This could well happen somewhere in the Middle East or South Asia, where temperatures could climb above 55°C. The heat could exceed the blistering 40°C mark again in the UK, and for the first time, top 50°C in parts of Europe.   

Inevitably, higher temperatures will mean that severe drought will continue to be the order of the day, slashing crop yields in many parts of the world. In 2022, extreme weather resulted in reduced harvests in China, India, South America, and Europe, increasing food insecurity. Stocks are likely to be lower than normal going into 2023, so another round of poor harvests could be devastating. Resulting food shortages in most countries could drive civil unrest, while rising prices in developed countries will continue to stoke inflation and the cost-of-living crisis.

One of the worst-affected regions will be the Southwest United States. Here, the longest drought in at least 1,200 years has persisted for 22 years so far, reducing the level of Lake Mead on the Colorado River so much that power generation capacity at the Hoover Dam has fallen by almost half. Upstream, the Glen Canyon Dam, on the rapidly shrinking Lake Powell, is forecast to stop generating power in 2023 if the drought continues. The Hoover Dam could follow suit in 2024. Together, these lakes and dams provide water and power for millions of people in seven states, including California. The breakdown of this supply would be catastrophic for agriculture, industry, and populations right across the region.

La Niña tends to limit hurricane development in the Atlantic, so as it begins to fade, hurricane activity can be expected to pick up. The higher global temperatures expected in 2023 could see extreme heating of the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico surface waters. This would favor the formation and persistence of super-hurricanes, powering winds and storm surges capable of wiping out a major US city, should they strike land. Direct hits, rather than a glancing blow, are rare—the closest in recent decades being Hurricane Andrew in 1992, which made landfall immediately south of Miami, obliterating more than 60,000 homes and damaging 125,000 more. Hurricanes today are both more powerful and wetter, so that the consequences of a city getting in the way of a superstorm in 2023 would likely be cataclysmic.

[a-queer-little-wombat]

[Image ID: map of the USA (with insets for Alaska and Hawaii), color coded, with title "2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map". Red text has been overlaid, "Wake up babe, new plant hardiness maps dropped!"]

I regret that describing these images in more exacting detail is beyond me - they're very complex.

There's a lookup by zip code there. Follow the link to 'download maps' to find ones for individual states.

And if you're like, ehhh, what's the big deal, look at this map to see the 2012 map: https://planthardiness.ars.usda.gov/system/files/US_Map_2012.jpg

[Image ID: map of the USA (with insets for Alaska and Hawaii), color coded to show plant hardiness zones, dated 2012]

And then compare to the 1990 map: https://planthardiness.ars.usda.gov/system/files/US_Map_1990.jpg

[Image ID: map of the USA (with insets for Alaska and Hawaii), color coded to show plant hardiness zones, dated 1990]

If you can't tell, for many parts of the country, in the 20 years between 1990 and 2012, everybody went up half a zone, which translates to 5F different in average minimum temperature. Then, in the 10 years between 2012 and 2023, most of the country went up another half zone.

[notwiselybuttoowell]

Meeting the target of limiting heating to 1.5C

At Cop26 in Glasgow, countries agreed to limit global heating to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. The pledges on emissions cuts they came forward with were not enough to meet this goal, however, so they agreed to return this year with strengthened commitments. Few have done so – only 24 submitted new national plans on emissions to the UN in advance of Cop27.

Likelihood: 0/5

Verdict: There will not be enough progress here to meet the 1.5C goal, but there is a baby step forward – the UN estimates that the improved plans that have been submitted will bring down temperatures by about 0.1C. But we are still heading for a disastrous 2.5C of heating on current policies.

Fulfilling promise of $100bn a year on climate finance

Since 2009, poor countries have been promised $100bn (£87bn) a year from 2020 to help them cut greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of extreme weather. This target has not been met, and will not be met before next year.

Likelihood: 0/5

Verdict: The rich world has caused the climate crisis, but the poor world – with tiny emissions in comparison – is bearing the brunt. The longer rich countries fail to fulfil their promises, the less trust there is in them among developed nations.

Adaptation funding

Most of the money that does go to the developed world in climate finance is destined to help middle income countries with projects to cut emissions, such as wind and solar farms. But what the poorest countries most need is help with ways to adapt to the extreme weather they are already seeing, such as regrowing forests, building flood barriers and putting in place early warning systems. Only about a fifth of climate finance is currently for adaptation, and nations promised last year to double that.

Likelihood: 1/5

Verdict: The Egyptian Cop27 presidency launched an action plan for adaptation as a key focus of its first week, so there will be progress but the target of doubling adaptation finance will not be met yet this year.

Loss and damage

One of the biggest issues at Cop27 is loss and damage. This refers to the most devastating impacts of the climate crisis, so extreme that countries could not adapt to them. Examples include the record droughts threatening nearly 150 million people with severe hunger in Africa, and the record floods that hit Pakistan this September. Poor countries say they need funding for rescue and reconstruction when such disasters strike, but rich countries have so far been reluctant to come up with any way of funding this.

Likelihood: 2.5/5

Verdict: Loss and damage is firmly on the official agenda for this conference – that was assured after a late night of negotiations at the start – but it will not be settled here. Countries have only embarked on the process of setting out what loss and damage means and how help for poor countries can be structured. While a few countries have come up with funding, discussions on how to find the hundreds of billions needed will carry on long after delegates leave Egypt.

World Bank reform

The World Bank is not on the agenda of the UN climate summit – it’s a completely separate institution to the UN. But many world leaders here have called for reform of the bank, which they said had failed to focus on the climate crisis and was not fit for the 21st century. Beleaguered World Bank president David Malpass is attending Sharm el-Sheikh, but his job will be looking a lot more shaky by the end of this fortnight.

Likelihood: 4/5

Verdict: If the World Bank is reformed, which is looking more and more necessary and likely, the pressure brought to bear at Cop27 will be a important factor in achieving it.

Movement on African gas

Many African countries are sitting on large reserves of fossil fuels, and with soaring gas prices around the world would like to exploit those reserves. Oil and gas companies would like to invest in them too, but rich countries and climate experts warn that doing so will just add to the climate crisis that is already having disastrous impacts on the poorest on the continent. African countries scent hypocrisy, pointing out that the rich have already burned their supplies.

Likelihood: 5/5

Verdict: There will certainly be movement on African gas at this Cop, but in which direction? Oil and gas investors are lurking in every corner of the conference centre, and they will be looking to go home with climate-busting deals.

[greenfue]

Mariam Almheiri: UAE stands ready to host COP28 and highlight its role in enhancing global climate action and conservation

Mariam bint Mohammed Almheiri, Minister of Climate Change and the Environment, has affirmed the UAE’s readiness to host the upcoming Conference of the Parties (COP28) this November, in collaboration with all associated partners and entities. She underscored the UAE’s pivotal role in advancing global climate initiatives, safeguarding our natural environment and Earth, and paving the way for a…

[leatherandtea]

hey btw if you're ever awake at 3 am setting up cold brew tea and making rich syrup? if you're determined to finally, for the first time, just once in your life, do the very simple math right and make precisely enough syrup for your bottle?

don't forget to actually follow through with the math. you have to actually USE the math like, as mathed.

who knew?

[hylianengineer]

Hey, happy Earth Day! Who wants to talk about climate change?

Yeah, okay, fair, I kinda figured the answer to that would be "ugh do we have to?" What if I told you I have good news though? Good news with caveats, but still good news.

What if I told you that since the Paris Agreement in 2015, we've avoided a whole degree celsius of global warming by 2100, or maybe more?

Current projections are 2.7C, which is way better than the 3-5C (with a median of 3.7C) we were expecting in 2015. It's not where we want to be - 1.5C - but it is big, noticeable progress!

And it's not like we either hit 1.5C and avoid all the big scary consequences or fail to hit 1.5C and get all of them - every tenth of a degree of warming we avoid is going to prevent more severe problems like extreme weather, sea level rise, etc.

This means that climate change mitigation efforts are having a noticeable impact! This means a dramatically better, safer future - and if we keep pushing, we could lower the amount of global warming we end up with even further. This is huge progress, and we need to celebrate it, even though the fight isn't over.

It's working. Keep going.