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clarkfamily · 7 years

Text

PNT DIARY 1908

Note: Empty entries have been omitted.

Note: PNT had his own system for recording the weather although he only uses it sporadically in the first month of this diary year. The notations occur after the date in each entry. Please see the post for 1906 to read the key.

1/1 ± I am 5 ft 9 in tall without shoes. I weigh 121 lbs. The ground is bare.

1/2 No snow.

1/3 No snow.

1/4 ->0 a little.

1/5 + Colder. Did chores and read.

1/6 Harry went back to U.N.H. A breeding ewe died. They drew straw. I dried some Baldwin apples. -2°

1/7 +-0. Elgar cut my hair. They drew up logs with the steers. Trimmed turnips. [to feed sheep]

1/8 Thawed a little all day. Trimmed turnips at the lower barn. Wednesday.

1/9 0. Made 5 pounds of butter. Papa went to the Grange. We did not feed the sheep tonight.

1/10 Papa and I doctored about 55 lambs and sheep for worms. 2 lambs died.

1/11 Dried apples all day. Ellice came home from Hazens. Saturday.

1/12 Read a little. Began to read "A Week on the Concord and Merrimack Rivers."

1/13 Thawing.

1/14 Papa and I doctored 9 ewes (for worms).

1/15 Dried apples all day.

1/16 Hazen called. Trimmed turnips. Papa cleaned out the hog house.

1/17 Went out into the north woods. Found a little spruce tree there.

1/18 Had the gripes last night and today. Stephen and Howard Townsend were here from Woodstock. Saturday.

1/19 Yesterday Mama finished reading Le Contes Geology [Elements of Geology, Joseph LeConte] to me. I stayed in the house all day. Sunday. -6°

1/20 cold last night. Did not go out. Joe began to draw hemlock logs to the mill, from the Fox place.

1/21 Did a few chores. Hugh sawed hemlock logs in the S. woods on Fox place. Joe drew logs. Thawing.

1/22 Thawing. Mr. and Mrs. C. D. Hazen and Annah Hazen came to dinner. Did not go out. Joe drew lumber.

1/23 Did chores again.

1/24 +

1/25 Polly came late tonight. Dried Baldwin apples.

1/26 Walked up Ela's hill. Bea came and stayed overnight.

1/27 Most of the snow melted last night. The road is all ice. Made 5 1/2 pounds of butter.

1/28 Colder. It is icy and poor sleighing. I sold my watch and chain to Joe for $1.10.

1/30 Trimmed turnips in the potato bin in the cellar. It is the coldest day yet. -13°

1/31 Cold and clear. Dried Baldwin apples. The temp. only got up to -5°. Friday. -16°

2/1 Stormy. We stayed in as much as possible. About 6 inches of snow came and drifted. Warmer.

2/2 My cherry log is 35 years old. Finished reading "A Week on the Concord" by Thoreau.

2/3 Hugh began to go to L.H.S. in the '08 class. Joe drew my black cherry log to mill with hemlock logs. -10°

2/4 I feed the sheep twice, the horses at night, the 5 calves at 8 am, and the hens twice. Cold day. -16°

2/5 Did chores about all day. The thermometers did not agree. -20° to -24°

2/6 Snow last night. Trimmed turnips in the cellar. We did nothing but chores. Thursday.

2/7 Edgar drew out his old maple from the S. woods. Joe brought home 6 cherry boards for me.

2/8 Papa and I stuck up my lumber in the cider mill. Saturday. -8°

2/9 Went down into the woods. Mama and I sorted books.

2/10 Hugh took Billy to go to school. He put him up at Dr. Smith's.

2/11 Made a box to feed the birds in. Went down into the woods and saw a large horned owl at 3 P.M.

2/12 Fine day. Trimmed turnips.

2/13 Trimmed turnips. Hugh stayed at home with a cold. Joe was away all day.

2/14 Fog. Papa and I cut a black birch in the S. woods. It was 96' tall, 110 years old 1.5' at butt, and the only one.

2/15 Still thawing. Snow is going fast. We did not do much but chores. Saturday.

2/16 Joe and I walked up to the log cabin out South on Oregon. Had the gripes when I got back.

2/17 Better but lame. Hugh stayed at home. Papa and Joe do all of the chores.

2/18 Hugh went to school. Feel still better.

2/19 - 3/4 [Empty]

3/5 Had appendicitis operation (Dr. Gile, surgeon). ]This appears to be Alma's handwriting and is in pencil. PNT's is in ink.]

3/6-3/24 [No entry; in MHMH hospital]

3/25 I came home from the M.H. Hospital.

3/26 - 3/27 [Empty]

3/28 We three gathered 8 bbl of sat. Saw first flock of robins. The jays made a commotion about it.

3/29 - 4/7 [Empty]

4/8 Jay and Harry Farnam called this evening and we sat up late. [b day turns 18]

4/9 - 4/12 [Empty]

4/13 Edgar boiled sap. Joe gathered sap.

4/14 - 4/15 [Empty]

4/16 Edgar boiled sap. Rlins (Rollins?) Hotel burned last night and I saw the light out east. A cold day.

4/18 They gathered 8 bbl of sap and the buckets. Went down to the south end of the woods. Saturday.

4/19 Edgar finished boiling sap. Dana called.

4/21 A cold chilly day. The snow all melted in the afternoon. Went down to the Fox place. Tuesday.

4/22 They split wood. Went down to the Fox place. The ground froze last night. Mama washed buckets.

4/23 - 4/24 [Empty]

4/25 Warm.

4/26 Very warm. Hugh and I went over to see Harry Farnam.

4/27 Warmest day yet.

4/28 Saw 2 bald eagles here. Had a hard thunder storm last night.

4/29 Cobb and Harrington began to shear our sheep. Edgar and I went over to the Jones farm.

4/30 - 5/22 [Empty]

5/23 Bob came.

5/24 Hugh and I went down to Sintres. Dana and Richard called. Sunday.

5/26 Went to town and traded a little. Julia Cummings came. Awful hot.

5/27 Helped decorate the lawn. Harry came home late. Papa has set a lot of hitching posts. [Preparations for Ellice's wedding the following day]

5/28 Ellice and Dana had a wedding on the lawn. About 100 guests. There was a reception at the Hazens'.

5/29 Harry, Bob, and Polly left.

5/31 Edgar took me to W.R. Junction to see a camera. Went to walk with Mama.

6/1 Uncle Bert and Aunt Mary went home.

6/2 Chilly day. Saw the first American Goldfinch.

6/3 - 8/17 [Empty]

8/18 Heard first green crickets.

9/15 Dug potatoes.

9/17 Papa and Joe finished getting in the corn a week from today.

9/19 My fountain pen came. We dug potatoes and finished the gold coins. Got a swarm of bees to robbing Sept. 20.

9/20 The bees began to rob.

9/21 My Italians [bees] brought live black bees late last night and early this morning. Sunday.

9/22 Dug potatoes. Went across to the grange.

9/23 We finished digging potatoes. Helped get corn.

9/24 Took Punch down town. Sent an order to W. W. Cary & Son for bee supplies. $15.16 cents in all. Came home with Papa.

9/25 Tried to keep the bees from robbing. Began to feed out in the open. They husked corn.

9/29 Husked corn. Went after [illegible] after supper.

9/30 Peabody came and threshed buckwheat, barley, and oats. He showed me how to weld and some other things.

10/1 They finished threshing. Mr. Ober bought the black mare Dolly which Papa has boughten.

10/2 Cold. We picked the squashes in the garden. Papa and I weighed the bees. Put cases on them without packing.

10/3 Joe and I finished picking corn.

10/4 Warmer.

10/5 We began to pick apples on a tree here and there. We are going to pick any good apples, even natives.

10/7 Fine day. We three finished up 4 1/2 bbls of butternuts on Fox place, also some apples. Packed up bees Wed.

10/8 Divided the queenless bees. Half in no. 3 and half in no 6.

10/9 Found 1 bus. of nuts which we missed (5 now). Those bees got cast out and killed in each swarm.

10/10 Finished packing up the bees. They jacked up the old cow shed. Joe finished drawing sweet corn fodder.

10/11 Papa, Grammie and Mama took the span and went to Brookside. Joe and I kept house. Milked 1.9(?) cows.

10/12 We three gathered cider apples in the sheep pasture. (to cook and eat). Lugged them up across.

10/13 Recreation [magazine] came out this week. The fog does not clear until 10 A.M. Joe and I went onto the Jones and Driscoll places.

10/14 Fine day. Painted all day on the handy wagon wheels. Joe and Papa fixed the barnyard fence. Wed.

10/15 - 10/23 [Empty]

10/24 Went down town. My bee supplies came. 5 hives, supers, etc. Papa had 2 bus. of buck(wheat?) ground.

10/25 - 10/27 [Empty]

10/28 We dug on the ditch and got wet. Began a winter case for my two swarms of bees.

10/29 Tinkered and helped David on the well. Papa went downtown. Joe plowed.

10/30 Papa and I dug in the ditch and Joe plowed in the south field.

10/31 Papa and I finished the ditch and tapped the spring out north. Joe began to plow in the barn field. Sat. Cold.

11/1 Colder. Milked 2 cows. Harry came home last night to vote Tuesday.

11/2 - 11/8 [Empty]

11/9 Warm. The bees came out a little. Moved 3 swarms to one side. The spring runs 1 quart a minute.

11/10 Warm. We turned up stones in the N. pasture and drew them to the new well.

11/11 Rain last night. Made 9 storm doors for bee hives, and a holding frame. Papa stoned more in the well.

11/12 Colder. Papa finished stoning the spring and we grounded up etc. Yesterday Papa got Edgar's cow.

12/13 Took the small cases off my two bee hives and put on my new big ones with 5" of straw packing. Ellice came.

11/14 - 11/17 [Empty]

11/18 The pump in the kitchen gave up for lack of water. It will still furnish a little.

11/19 We get water enough to drink and cook from the well in the kitchen. Tinkered. Two inches of snow in all.

11/20 Joe finished plowing the Garden field. I made a hot bed frame, placed it S. of barn and filled with straw, etc.

11/21 Snow is melting. Ellice and I went hunting out S.

11/22 Our new spring runs 3/4 quarts per minute. Milked two cows.

11/23 Helped saw up skidway on Fox place. I weigh 164 pounds without dooring(clothing?). Warm and misty.

11/24 The bees came out in fine shape. Warm. Edgar got after and wounded a deer.

11/25 Joe and I went to Coles'.

11/26 Papa, Mama, and I had dinner at Brookside. Got home after dark. Warm and Misty. 54° after dark.

11/27 Joe began to plow in the west field. Very warm. Boiled and hulled corn.

11/28 - 11/30 [Empty]

12/1 Warm. Papa and I trimmed trees in the Baker lane. The bees had a fight.

12/2 - 12/30 [Empty]

12/31 We cut wood up the road. We three visited Harry Farnam in the evening.

#Philip Townsend #diary #text #storrs hill

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a-happy-beginning · 3 months

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What are you doing? It’s 7:45. I know. Well, I’m trying not to see you. Well, I am trying not to see you. Well, how do we stop seeing each other? Apparently, we can’t. This is a problem. Yes.

—Mary Margaret and David, Once Upon a Time, “7:15 A.M.”

#Once Upon a Time #Snow White #Ginnifer Goodwin #Mary Margaret Blanchard #David Nolan #Prince Charming #Josh Dallas #Snowing #Kiss | Charming and Snow #1.10 7:15 A.M.

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dinneratgrannys · 4 years

Photo

emma swan in every episode

1.10, 7:15 a.m.

#ouatedit #emmaswanedit #once upon a time #ouat #emma swan #s1 #1x10 7:15 a.m.#character: emma swan #event: es every ep

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theliberaltony · 6 years

Link

via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

Welcome to our Election Update for Tuesday, Oct. 23!

It feels like every time you hit “refresh,” Democrats’ prospects in the House tick up. The Classic version of our forecast currently gives the party a 6 in 7 chance (86 percent) to take control.1 In the Senate, things look less promising for Democrats: Republicans have a 4 in 5 chance (81 percent) of holding on. But remember, there remains plenty of uncertainty in our forecast, so you should brace for a variety of outcomes. In the Senate, our 80-percent confidence interval spans everything from Democrats picking up two seats to Republicans picking up three. And in the House, there’s an 80 percent chance that Democratic gains will be somewhere between 20 and 61 seats — that’s a big range!

What fuels this wide range of outcomes? A big part of it is lack of data. Even at this late stage in the election cycle, many states and districts — even potentially decisive ones — have seen little to no polling, which forces our model to lean on other factors like an area’s fundamentals, possibly missing sentiments stirring on the ground. Of course, we don’t need polls everywhere; many states and districts are safe for one party or the other. But if we just look at places that our model considers to be competitive, some get all the polling love, while several others are woefully under-surveyed.

Take the Senate, for example. As of Monday afternoon,2 we had collected 52 polls of the U.S. Senate race in Florida between incumbent Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson and Republican Gov. Rick Scott. But in North Dakota — whose Senate seat is just as competitive as Florida’s — we had only eight polls of the matchup between incumbent Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp and Republican Rep. Kevin Cramer. If we really want to understand the scale of polling disparities between the two races (and other competitive races in the Senate), we can be even more sophisticated and compare them by looking at the poll weights used by our model. It works a little something like this: Based on its recency, sample size, quality of the pollster, etc., each poll used in our forecast is assigned a weight — a coefficient where 1.00 is average. If you sum up all the poll weights for a race, you get an overall number that tells you just how robust the polling is. Here are the poll weights for this year’s competitive3 Senate races.

Some Senate races are poll hogs

Likely, lean and toss-up Senate races by amount of polling according to FiveThirtyEight’s aggregate poll weights, as of Oct. 22

State 538 Rating Aggregate Poll Weight Mississippi* Likely R 1.39

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North Dakota Lean R 2.39

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Montana Likely D 4.06

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Minnesota* Likely D 4.70

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West Virginia Likely D 5.64

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Indiana Likely D 7.34

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Missouri Lean D 7.35

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Nevada Toss-up 7.58

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New Jersey Likely D 8.07

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Tennessee Lean R 9.45

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Arizona Lean D 9.83

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Texas Likely R 11.44

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Florida Lean D 13.13

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* Special election.

As you can see, we really don’t need this much data from Florida, where the aggregate poll weight is 13.13. And you can’t shake a stick on Twitter without hitting someone complaining about how overpolled Texas is, especially given that the campaign there is not particularly suspenseful (Republican Sen. Ted Cruz has a 4 in 5 chance of victory). Instead, pollsters should try polling North Dakota (an aggregate poll weight of 2.39) or Montana (4.06). Really, we’re in the most desperate need of polling in the special election in Mississippi, but that’s kind of a special case: It’s possible that no candidate will get a majority of the vote there on Nov. 6, which will send the election into overtime.4

Turning our attention to the House of Representatives, we’ve collected 432 polls covering 142 districts. That’s pretty good at first glance thanks to efforts like the New York Times Upshot and Siena College’s live polling project. But four of the closest districts — those that are “toss-ups” or “lean” toward one party — have seen no polling at all.

Lots of close House races are underpolled

Lean and toss-up House races by amount of polling according to FiveThirtyEight’s aggregate poll weights, as of Oct. 22

District▲▼ 538 Rating▲▼ Aggregate Poll Weight▲▼ CO-3 Toss-up 0.00 IN-9 Lean R 0.00 NY-2 Lean R 0.00 WI-6 Lean R 0.00 MI-7 Toss-up 0.36

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NV-3 Lean D 0.52

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MN-1 Toss-up 0.60

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OH-12 Lean R 0.74

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AZ-8 Lean R 0.77

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FL-25 Lean R 0.79

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PA-10 Lean R 0.91

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WA-5 Lean R 0.96

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NY-22 Lean D 1.10

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KS-2 Toss-up 1.31

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VA-5 Toss-up 1.34

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IL-14 Toss-up 1.43

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IL-6 Toss-up 1.45

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IL-13 Lean R 1.58

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FL-6 Lean R 1.58

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NY-24 Lean R 1.59

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NC-2 Toss-up 1.62

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NY-19 Toss-up 1.64

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NM-2 Toss-up 1.65

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CA-48 Lean D 1.74

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WA-8 Toss-up 1.82

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IA-3 Lean D 1.85

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UT-4 Toss-up 1.92

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TX-7 Toss-up 1.93

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CA-39 Lean D 1.99

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ME-2 Toss-up 2.01

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NJ-7 Lean D 2.05

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NY-27 Lean R 2.08

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IL-12 Lean R 2.12

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CA-25 Lean D 2.16

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MI-8 Toss-up 2.16

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WA-3 Lean R 2.17

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CA-45 Lean D 2.26

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MT-1 Lean R 2.28

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NE-2 Lean R 2.29

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VA-7 Toss-up 2.38

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KY-6 Toss-up 2.53

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FL-26 Toss-up 2.62

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PA-1 Toss-up 2.76

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NC-9 Toss-up 2.77

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TX-32 Lean R 2.79

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NC-13 Lean R 2.85

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NJ-3 Lean D 3.03

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AK-1 Lean R 3.12

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VA-2 Lean R 3.13

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FL-15 Toss-up 4.83

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Show more rows

Those four districts are the Colorado 3rd, Indiana 9th, New York 2nd and Wisconsin 6th. The Indiana 9th will be one of the first districts to have its polls close on election night and could be a good bellwether. In our model’s estimation, the Colorado 3rd is a true coin flip between incumbent GOP Rep. Scott Tipton and Democrat Diane Mitsch Bush, a former state representative. Somebody poll these places!

The situation isn’t much better in the toss-up Michigan 7th, which hasn’t been polled since February. Nor in the Nevada 3rd, whose only poll was really more of a subsample of a statewide Nevada poll (it had just 178 respondents). Nevada is a particularly surprising omission, since even qualitative election forecasters agree that that seat is flippable! That’s at least six districts in desperate need of polling — and that’s just among the most competitive seats. Our forecast shows the House battleground as historically broad; dozens of districts that rate as “Likely” Democratic or Republican — races that could determine control of the House — also have little to no polling.

On the other end of the spectrum, pollsters can probably give surveys of the Virginia 2nd District and Alaska At-Large District a rest.5 And the Florida 15th District has an aggregate poll weight of 4.83, meaning we have more and better polling of Lakeland, Florida, than of the Montana U.S. Senate race.

Overall, it appears that pollsters may be behind the curve on which districts are truly competitive given Democrats’ increasingly strong position in the House. For example, some of the highest aggregate poll weights in the entire House are in districts where the outcome isn’t in very much doubt, like the Virginia 10th (4.51), where Democratic state Sen. Jennifer Wexton has an 8 in 9 chance of defeating incumbent Republican Rep. Barbara Comstock. In fact, “Likely Democratic” districts have the highest median poll weight of any competitive category.

Likely Republican races are underpolled

Median aggregate poll weight by FiveThirtyEight rating category

538 Rating Median Weight Likely D 2.04

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Lean D 1.99

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Toss-up 1.82

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Lean R 1.58

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Likely R 0.63

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Districts’ poll weights, assigned partly on each poll’s recency, sample size and quality of the pollster, were summed and the median number used for each category.

As you can see, the median aggregate poll weights gradually move from high to low as you go from more Democratic- to more Republican-favored districts. What that means is we’ve got better polling in districts where Democrats are favored than races that could go either way or Republican. Ideally, we’d see more of a bell curve with toss-up districts having the highest poll weights, but this hasn’t been so. Most striking, however, is the sharp decrease in median poll weights in borderline-competitive Republican districts. That’s the kind of data that would help us foresee a blue wave — and unfortunately, it’s currently our biggest blind spot.

#IFTTT #Politics – FiveThirtyEight #politics #538 #Nathaniel Rakich

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aaronsniderus · 7 years

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Industrial Production Shoots Up – Market Update

I don’t know about you, but Turkey Day can’t get here soon enough. My Detroit Lions have a big divisional game against the Minnesota Vikings. It should be fun because a family friend who’s originally from Minnesota will be joining us for Thanksgiving dinner. A little friendly rivalry will be good.

Last week was a feast of economic data, and this week, everything is being crammed in before Thursday. Let’s jump right in.

Headline News

Producer Price Index (PPI)

Producer prices were up 0.4% in October, beating consensus expectations for a 0.1% increase. This is important because the prices paid by producers of our goods and services are often passed on to consumers down the line. Prices have risen 2.8% on the year.

The same 0.4% price increase held true when food and energy were removed. Prices are up 2.4% on the year. When trade services are further removed, prices were up 0.2% and 2.3% on the year. Trade services were a major contributor, being up 1.1% on the month. There was a 0.5% increase in food prices, while energy prices were flat as gas prices fell.

Quicken Loans Home Price Perception Index (HPPI)

Homeowner estimates of home value were just 0.99% higher than actual appraisal values in October. The difference has narrowed for five consecutive months.

In terms of regional data, homeowners in the West overestimated value by just 0.81%. This is followed by the South and Midwest at 1.02% and 1.05% higher. The Northeast has homeowners overestimating by 1.11%.

Looking at the metro level, appraisals in Dallas come in 3.13% higher than homeowner estimates. Philadelphians are on the other end of the spectrum, overvaluing their homes by 2.69%. Tampa, Florida, is the closest to harmony. Appraisal values are 0.03% under homeowner expectations.

Quicken Loans Home Value Index (HVI)

Home values rose 0.76% in October and are up 4.76% on the year, given low supply. That said, the gains didn’t hold true nationwide.

Values in the West fell 0.98% on the month, but they’ve still risen 5.42% on the year. Midwestern home values were down 0.29%. They’re up 5.12% annually. Meanwhile, the South saw prices rise 3.31% on the month and 5.71% yearly. In the Northeast, prices were up 1.10% and 3.44% since last October.

MBA Mortgage Applications

Mortgage applications were up a little bit last week, rising 3.1% overall. Refinance applications were up 6.0%, while purchase applications rose 0.4%. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage was unmoved at 4.18%.

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

On the consumer side, inflation was that 0.1% overall in the month of October and have risen 2.0% on the year. When food and energy are taken out, it was up 0.2% and 1.8% annually. The latter figure is the core rate that the Federal Reserve would eventually like to see get to 2.0% because it would encourage people to buy now before, prices rise.

Service pricing has seen back-to-back months with gains of 0.4%. Housing and medical costs were both up 0.3%. Even prices and wireless services are going up, an area where prices are usually rock-bottom because the carriers compete so heavily on price. On the other side, new vehicle prices are down 0.2% as are prescription drugs.

Retail Sales

Sales weren’t going to see the 1.9% hurricane-replacement bump they saw in September in October. Still, they were up 0.2%, meeting expectations.

When sales of cars and trucks were taken out, there was a 0.1%. Auto sales were up 0.7%. Other gainers included electronics and appliance stores and furniture, both of which matched the 0.7% gain. Finally, sales in health and personal care stores were up 0.8%.

Gasoline sales were down 1.2% courtesy of a price drop. When this is further taken out, sales were up 0.3%. Joining gasoline on the downside is the building materials category, also down 1.2%.

Jobless Claims

Initial claims were up 10,000 to 249,000 last week. Hurricane effects appear to be lessening, although claims in Puerto Rico are still roughly three times higher than normal. The four-week average of initial claims was up 6,500 to 237,750.

On the other hand, continuing claims were down 44,000 last week to 1.860 million. The four-week moving average was down 9,000 to 1.887 million.

Industrial Production

Industrial production was up 0.9% in October. There was a big assist from manufacturing, which rose 1.3%. Factories also utilized 0.6% more of their capacity last month. Capacity sits at 77.0%.

Motor vehicle production was up 1.0% in October, with people still replacing their vehicles after the hurricanes. Certain high-tech industries are also showing 1.1% production gains. Mining is down 1.3% last month, but it’s still up 6.4% on the year. Utilities were up 2.0% on the month and 0.9% on the year.

Housing Market Index

Home builder sentiment was up two points in November data to come in at 70. Current and future sales both come in at 77. Meanwhile, traffic of a new home buyers is up two points to 50 in the best reading since May. This means that there are no longer fewer people walking through homes.

Regionally, the Northeast saw its housing Outlook rise sharply, coming in at 63, while the Midwest is at 65. The South and West are leading the pack at 72 and 77, respectively.

Housing Starts

Housing starts were up 13.7% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.290 million. Single-family home starts were up 5.3% to 877,000. Meanwhile, multi-family starts rose 36.8% to 413,000.

On the permit side, these were up 5.9% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.297 million. Permits were up 1.9% on the single-family side to 839,000. Multi-family permits were up 13.9% to 458,000. Completions were up 12.6% to 1.232 million. Together with a 0.9% increase to 1.096 million in the number of homes under construction, this may help alleviate the supply problem.

Mortgage Rates

Fixed mortgage rates were up last week. That said, they’re still very low in the context of history. It remains a great time to lock your rate.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 3.95% with 0.5 points in fees last week. This is up five basis points on the week and up just one basis point on the year.

On the shorter-term side of things, the average rate for a 0.5 points on a 15-year fixed mortgage was 3.31%, up from 3.24% last week. Last year at this time, the average rate was 3.14%.

Finally, the average rate on a 5-year treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) was 3.21% for 0.4 points, down one basis point on the week. This is up from 3.07% a year ago.

Stock Market

The market has concerns over whether tax reform could be passed by the end of the year. Because of this, the Dow Jones industrial average and S&P 500 were both down for the second week in a row. This is the first two-week downturn since August.

The Dow was down 100.12 points on the day to close at 23,358.24 points. This is down 0.27% on the week. The S&P 500 was down 0.13% on the week after finishing down 6.79 points Friday to close at 2,578.85. The NASDAQ closed at 6,782.79 Friday, down 10.50 points. It was the only index to post a weekly gain, up 0.47%.

The Week Ahead

Tuesday, November 21

Existing Home Sales (10:00 a.m. ET) – Existing Home Sales tallies the number of previously constructed homes, condominiums and co-ops in which a sale closed during the month. Existing homes (also known as home resales) account for a larger share of the market than new homes and indicate housing market trends.

Wednesday, November 22

MBA Mortgage Applications (7:00 a.m. ET) – The mortgage applications index measures applications to mortgage lenders. This is a leading indicator for single-family home sales and housing construction.

Durable Goods Orders (8:30 a.m. ET) – These are based on new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for factory hard goods.

Jobless Claims (8:30 a.m. ET) – New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals filing for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing trend suggests a deteriorating labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smooths out weekly volatility.

Consumer Sentiment (10:00 a.m. ET) – The University of Michigan’s Consumer Survey Center questions 500 households each month on their financial conditions and attitudes about the economy. Consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending.

Thursday, November 23

Markets are closed in observance of Thanksgiving. Enjoy your tryptophan- and calorie-induced coma!

There’s quite a bit going on next week. We’ll extract ourselves from the mountain of turkey and stuffing and have it all covered for you on Monday.

If economics and mortgage rates aren’t going to get you out of bed after this weekend, we have plenty more to share with you if you subscribe to the Zing Blog below. Black Friday and Cyber Monday are two of the biggest shopping days of the year. To help you prepare, we put together several gift guides to help you make your list. I got to write our tech gift guide. Check it out and have a great week!

The post Industrial Production Shoots Up – Market Update appeared first on ZING Blog by Quicken Loans.

from Updates About Loans https://www.quickenloans.com/blog/industrial-production-shoots-market-update

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a-happy-beginning · 3 months

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How do we stop seeing each other? Apparently, we can’t. This is a problem.

—Mary Margaret and David, Once Upon a Time, “7:15 A.M.”

#Once Upon a Time #Snow White #Prince Charming #Josh Dallas #Ginnifer Goodwin #Mary Margaret Blanchard #David Nolan #Snowing #Kiss | Charming and Snow #1.10 7:15 A.M.#Touching Hair | Charming and Snow

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mikebrackett · 7 years

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Industrial Production Shoots Up – Market Update

Last week was a feast of economic data, and this week, everything is being crammed in before Thursday. Let’s jump right in.

Headline News

Producer Price Index (PPI)

Quicken Loans Home Price Perception Index (HPPI)

Homeowner estimates of home value were just 0.99% higher than actual appraisal values in October. The difference has narrowed for five consecutive months.

Quicken Loans Home Value Index (HVI)

Home values rose 0.76% in October and are up 4.76% on the year, given low supply. That said, the gains didn’t hold true nationwide.

MBA Mortgage Applications

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Retail Sales

Sales weren’t going to see the 1.9% hurricane-replacement bump they saw in September in October. Still, they were up 0.2%, meeting expectations.

Gasoline sales were down 1.2% courtesy of a price drop. When this is further taken out, sales were up 0.3%. Joining gasoline on the downside is the building materials category, also down 1.2%.

Jobless Claims

On the other hand, continuing claims were down 44,000 last week to 1.860 million. The four-week moving average was down 9,000 to 1.887 million.

Industrial Production

Industrial production was up 0.9% in October. There was a big assist from manufacturing, which rose 1.3%. Factories also utilized 0.6% more of their capacity last month. Capacity sits at 77.0%.

Housing Market Index

Regionally, the Northeast saw its housing Outlook rise sharply, coming in at 63, while the Midwest is at 65. The South and West are leading the pack at 72 and 77, respectively.

Housing Starts

Housing starts were up 13.7% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.290 million. Single-family home starts were up 5.3% to 877,000. Meanwhile, multi-family starts rose 36.8% to 413,000.

Mortgage Rates

Fixed mortgage rates were up last week. That said, they’re still very low in the context of history. It remains a great time to lock your rate.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 3.95% with 0.5 points in fees last week. This is up five basis points on the week and up just one basis point on the year.

On the shorter-term side of things, the average rate for a 0.5 points on a 15-year fixed mortgage was 3.31%, up from 3.24% last week. Last year at this time, the average rate was 3.14%.

Finally, the average rate on a 5-year treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) was 3.21% for 0.4 points, down one basis point on the week. This is up from 3.07% a year ago.

Stock Market

The Week Ahead

Tuesday, November 21

Wednesday, November 22

Durable Goods Orders (8:30 a.m. ET) – These are based on new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for factory hard goods.

Thursday, November 23

Markets are closed in observance of Thanksgiving. Enjoy your tryptophan- and calorie-induced coma!

There’s quite a bit going on next week. We’ll extract ourselves from the mountain of turkey and stuffing and have it all covered for you on Monday.

The post Industrial Production Shoots Up – Market Update appeared first on ZING Blog by Quicken Loans.

from Updates About Loans https://www.quickenloans.com/blog/industrial-production-shoots-market-update

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