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mars-writes-1999 · 4 years

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Penumbra Podcast fan Theory

I have a theory about how this season is going to end and where the Junoverse is headed. None of this is certain, it’s all just theory. This isn’t about Nureyev’s debts though, I have genuinely no idea what’s going on with that boi but he worries me lots. I love him, and can’t figure him out. This is about the other class X radical.

SPOILERS FOR JUNO STEEL AND WHAT LIES BEYOND PART 2

tl;dr Jet saw Nureyev/Ransom fly away with the Ruby 7. The Ruby 7 sent the distress signal. The Ruby 7 is a sentient ai. The Ruby 7 is the other class X radical.

1. Jet saw Nureyev/Ransom fly away with the Ruby 7.

There was a line from Jet that stuck out to me right away in What Lies Beyond part 2. At the very beginning of his interrogation jet says "I do not think. I know. There is nothing on this ship that they want." He also later says "There is nothing on this ship that they want. That is final". I do put more stock in the first than the second quote because by the second one he is playing along with Juno's plan and intentionally being angry. I have looked through the scripts and I don't think we're ever told where Jet is being held (lmk if I'm wrong) but for my theory to work he is somewhere with a window and/or he saw things before being put in a "cell" at all.

Jet is a straightforward guy and went into that interrogation with a plan. He had time to think about what he wanted to say to Juno and what he said was "I do not think. I know." I take this to mean she really does know. He knows that Ransom, who dark matters is looking for, is not on the ship. He knows that the Ruby 7, who he believes dark matters is looking for (I'll get to this later), is not on the ship.

While my Ruby 7 theory is a bit more of a long shot, I REALLY think Jet saw Ransom escape. He says in no uncertain terms that he KNOWS that there isn’t anything that Dark Matters is looking for. Even if we make an assumption that Jet thinks they’re only looking for one

2. The Ruby 7 sent the distress signal

So I’ve thought this might be true since my second listen through the episode. It was a bit of a wild guess at first, but the more I think about it the more I buckle down on it. It lines up in a lot of ways where nothing else I can think of does. This whole argument does assume that Sasha and Dark Matters didn’t just fabricate the distress signal, but given her distaste for agent G (god rest her soul), I think the signal was real.

When trying to decide who could have sent the signal we can immediately rule out literally every person in the carte blanche family. Buddy and Juno do a good job of explaining to us why each one of them couldn’t be it.

Buddy was dying (plus we have the added bonus of her monologue and knowing what she was doing)

Juno, Vespa, and Ransom were in sight of each other and in the way of EMP waves

Rita’s comms were knocked out by the EMP waves

Jet was fixing the Ruby 7 and was right next to the EMP waves. He was also pretty busy trying to keep buddy from allowing herself to be killed

All of these things considered, we can also just assume that no one on this ship would rat them out. The only possible defection is Ransom, but despite not knowing what his motives are, I don’t think he ratted them out to Dark Matters.

The only thing with the sentience to call out would be the Ruby (I’ll provide evidence for its sentience in a moment). I don’t know why it would reach out to Dark Matters specifically, but maybe it was just reaching out to anyone with a distress call. I don’t know how space distress calls work, but Sasha did need to specify that the call didn’t come from the Carte Blanche which means vehicles may have the power to send out a distress call.

We know from Sasha and Juno’s conversation that the distress call was sent out 4 times in 2 hours. In the episode we see 3 major EMP blasts: The one between episodes, the one when Vespa and Ransom start arguing and Buddy can’t communicate, and the one Buddy barely avoids by getting into the safe room. It isn’t unreasonable to presume there was a 4th EMP wave that occurred after Buddy was safe and sound but before the entire team made it back safely. 4 distress signals for 4 emp waves. If the Ruby 7 is the one sending these, then this math makes sense.

In The Heart of it all Part 2 Jet says to Buddy “Even an EMP so direct couldn’t deactivate its computer mind for a moment - though it is still bitter about its engines.” This means the Ruby may have been scared about its engines dying and therefore it sent out a distress signal.

None of this is provable at this point, but I also haven’t found any evidence to the contrary. If nothing following this is true, I still think this may be true.

3. The Ruby 7 is a sentient AI

It is at this point that I would like to acknowledge that I am using it/its as pronouns for the Ruby 7. This is how the car has been referred to in the show up until this point and so it is how I will be referring to it from here on out. If any of this pans out and the Ruby 7 uses different pronouns or signifiers in future episodes I will refer to it differently.

Before I give the reasons I think the Ruby 7 itself is sentient, I want to talk about why I think it’s plausible that Kevin and Sophie would take the story in this direction. The reason is pretty simple, they’ve told us they’d be willing to. Here is a clip of Kevin and Sophie in the Season 1 Q&A.

[audio file]

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1cOXj3ybVkszLdt8U8BiRrVW3Cy7O_oGl/view?usp=sharing

[google doc transcript of audio file]

https://docs.google.com/document/d/16EP7CP6Wxic3q7-QhPce1dinan5A0ACNDdxZ4DfaEtA/edit?usp=sharing

So not only does this clip make it clear that Kevin has wanted robots in some form from the start, it shows that Sophie is open to the idea. We also hear them talk about how big of a deal it would be to introduce elements like this into the story. I would consider all of this setup as treating the concept of AI with the respect and time it deserves. We also know how much Kevin loves the Ruby 7 so making the car a main character would absolutely be within the realm of possibilities. The Ruby 7 is arguably the 7th member of their crew with or without sentience.

Now to discuss the proof of the sentience of the Ruby 7. There’s a lot of evidence for this. The car has always been sassy and had a personality, but there are several moments that point to more than this.

In the very beginning of part 1 of Tools of Rust, we see Jet directly mull over the sentience of the Ruby 7.

The Ruby 7’s many background calculations make it more like a horse. It can be controlled, but only insofar as it wants to be controlled. (HE SHAKES HIS HEAD AND SNORTS, DISMISSING HIMSELF) “Wants to.” This car can make you believe in ghosts, too — a spirit in the machine. But the Ruby 7, whatever the force of its calculations, cannot want and cannot think; it can only behave like it does. ~from Tools of Rust Script released to 10$ Patreon supporters

This gives some of the base backgrounds into how Jet thinks about the car he is closest to. In this episode he refers to the ruby as “a wild horse, I must break it in.” The catalyst for this episode occurs while Jet is breaking down the tractor shield generator because when driving the Ruby 7 “Manuevers have not responded as they should.” There are of course reasons for these things that are not sentience. Jet himself does not think the car is sentient at the beginning of this episode. We also know that his view of the car is changing throughout his arc of this season. In its most recent appearance, we see the Ruby at its most sentient. Two distinct moments come to mind in regards to this.

First, in part one as they are discussing their plan after Rita deploys the Book:

JET: We will be on our own — even the Ruby 7 will temporarily shut down. RUBY 7: (PETTY/ANNOYED BEEPS) BUDDY: … Come again? JET: The Ruby insists that it will not shut down. It is incorrect. RUBY 7: (REALLY ANNOYED BEEPS) JET: The Ruby says that I should not tell it what it can and cannot do. VESPA: Really built some sass into that thing, huh? NUREYEV: Is it just me, or… have responses like this become more common from our mysterious vehicle? VESPA: I swear its voice changed, too. BUDDY: Then we’ll allow the car its moody teenage years, I think; after all this is over I’ll buy it an industrial supply of eyeliner and posters of sad young men. ~ From The Heart of it All part 1 script released to 10$ Patreon supporters

Here several characters are remarking upon the increasing sentience of the Ruby 7. In part 2 of this episode, we see further evidence that the crew, especially Jet, has noticed changes in the Ruby which make it seem more and more sentient.

BUDDY: Singing and theoretical mathematics? Is there anything that car can't do? JET: Increasingly I worry that there is not. Even an EMP so direct couldn’t deactivate its computer mind for a moment — though it is still bitter about its engines. (HE ACTUALLY IS WORRIED ABOUT WHAT THE HELL THE RUBY 7 IS, BUT NOW ISN’T THE TIME FOR THAT) But in this moment I am far more worried by.... ~ From Heart of it All part 2 script for 10$ Patreon Supporters

Here it is clear that not only does Jet sound concerned about the Ruby 7, but Kevin’s direction shows that Jet is genuinely unsure of the Ruby. Not just that he doesn’t know what the Ruby 7 is doing, but that he doesn’t know what the Ruby 7 is.

Now that I’ve shown all of the evidence I have I’m going to extrapolate some of this to draw a line from this evidence to my theory in part 1.

Jet knows something is up with the Ruby 7. He has seen Nureyev leave the carte blanche in the Ruby 7 and therefore knows the car is not on the ship. As the delivery notes say “now isn’t the time for that”. What does Jet have while in his “cell” but time? He spends part of his imprisonment sitting and thinking about the Ruby 7. He knows that Dark Matters could have easily found the cure mother prime so he assumes there is something else they are looking for. He realizes that his car is sentient. He realizes that they are looking for 2 main things, Ransom and the Ruby 7. He saw both of these leave. He says "I do not think. I know. There is nothing on this ship that they want."

For this to work, the Ruby 7 needs to be classified as a Class X radical, this is a tall order, but I think the Ruby 7 meets the criteria.

4. The Ruby 7 is the other class X radical

1st of all, look at that green car? That car is SO rad.

Jokes aside, there are 2 main criteria I’m using to determine that the Ruby 7 could be the class X radical Dark Matters is looking for. First, is it literally possible that this is what Dark Matters is looking for? Does it fit any descriptors Director Wire gives us during her interview with Juno? Second, does it fit the definition of a class X radical?

In answer to the first question, we consider what Dark Matters is searching for. We know that they know it’s class X, but not much else. In fact, Sasha suggests that Juno may know more than her about the radical because he’s been living with it. This gives the impression that they might not really know what they’re looking for. My theory here is they know that they are looking for a sentient robot, but they don’t know it’s a car. This explains why they know what they need to about its threats but not much else. It may also explain why some of the agents were looking in drawers. If they were not looking for Nureyev (cause like Buddy said, they should know he’s not inches tall) then perhaps they were looking for a sentient robot. Unless I’m misremembering something, I think this is all we really get in terms of information on what the second radical is. Sasha doesn’t give Juno much information despite giving him everything she can about the cure mother prime.

In answer to the second question, we look toward the definition Sasha gives Juno for a radical: “any person or object with the potential to cause significant change to civilized human life as we know it”. AI with sentience fits this definition. Even if you don’t think it does, the piece from the season 1 Q&A shows that Sophie thinks it does. They talk about the care that would need to be in place in order to introduce robots, ai, or aliens. Care is needed because any one of these three things would drastically change the galaxy as they know it.

I don’t really have any clever way to end this other than saying all of this could be wrong. I could be completely off and there are probably other explanations for everything I’ve described, but I actually feel pretty confident on this. It started off as a random thought and the more I’ve sat on it the more evidence I’ve collected. Whether this comes to fruition or not I hope you enjoyed reading my theory!

CC:

@thepenumbrapodcast

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shirlleycoyle · 4 years

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Why Louis DeJoy’s One Big Change to the USPS Backfired

On Monday, embattled Postmaster General Louis DeJoy testified before a House subcommittee about the changes he's made at the USPS, the post office's ability to handle the election, and his qualifications for the job. During the hearing's approximately six hours of back-and-forth, we learned very little. But, about halfway through the hearing, there was a brief moment that shed light on how the post office has gone horribly wrong under DeJoy's tenure.

About three and a half hours into Monday's hearing, Rep. Peter Welch (D-VT) had an extended and pointless monologue interrupted by committee chair Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-NY) because his time had expired. Per custom, Maloney let DeJoy "answer the question," even though there technically wasn't one. This allowed DeJoy to do something he had, thus far, not been allowed to do: explain himself.

His explanation only lasted about 90 seconds, but it was the clearest picture yet about the story DeJoy is telling himself regarding what he has done to the post office and why, something that has been surprisingly difficult to pin down over recent weeks, as speculation has swirled about whether he's a Trump stooge out to sabotage the post office ahead of the election, a small government Republican hastening the privatization of the post office, or a brilliant logistics expert shaking things up.

DeJoy's story is a simple one, and it even sounds sensible on the surface, intended to address very real problems in the way the USPS functions. But it's also easy to see how it screwed up the post office so badly. And at the heart of the problem is a conflict over what is more important: keeping costs down or delivering the mail on time.

Subscribe to The Mail, Motherboard’s newsletter about the USPS, voting security, and democracy.

During DeJoy's second day on the job, the USPS Office of Inspector General published a damning report about how mail is processed. It found, among many other things, the USPS was late processing almost one in five mailpieces at distribution facilities.

When mail isn't processed in time to make the last scheduled truck trips from the distribution facilities to your local post office, USPS managers have two options. They can dispatch another truck which costs the USPS more money. Or they can hold the mail for the next day, which slows delivery and risks creating a backlog that can snowball into even more delays.

Before DeJoy, managers typically opted to dispatch extra trucks, because, as the OIG report put it, "Generally, management prioritized high-quality service above the financial health of the Postal Service and are making decisions daily to meet service performance goals that are significantly increasing costs."

But late trips beget more late trips, and overtime begets more overtime. If the workers processing mail are late finishing up, then the trucks run late, which causes the mail carriers to leave late on their routes, and thus work late finishing deliveries. Perhaps the mail arrives unsorted by address to your local post office because they didn't have time to do so at the distribution facility, meaning delivering the mail will take even longer because it has to be sorted at the local post office or even on the road. And all that overtime adds up. The OIG found USPS "spent $1.1 billion in mail processing overtime and penalty overtime, $280 million in late and extra transportation, and $2.9 billion in delivery overtime and penalty overtime costs" just in the latest fiscal year.

So in came DeJoy, a man who has worked decades in the logistics and trucking business. He saw late trucks, and, according to the story he told the House committee, he ordered no more late trucks.

"People ask why do trucks matter, why do on-time trucks matter? They do matter," he said during his 90-second monologue. "It is a fundamental premise how the whole mail network is put together. If the trucks don't run on time then the mail carriers cannot leave on time, they are out at night, have to come back to get more mail, the collection process is late, the plant process is distorted. I see several billion dollars in potential savings in getting the system to connect properly and that's why we ran out and put a plan together to really get this fundamental basic principle: run your trucks on time."

According to the USPS, trucks are now running on time thanks to DeJoy's policy, at least more so than they used to. DeJoy said USPS has seen a 70 percent reduction in extra or late trip costs over the last four weeks, eliminating some 4,500 such trips per day. Indeed, the very concept of doing otherwise seemed anathema to him. "I find it really—I would not know how to reverse that now. Am I to say, 'Don't run the trucks on time?' Is that the answer that we're looking to get me to say here today?"

Do you work for the USPS? What do you think of DeJoy's explanation? Email Aaron Gordon at [email protected].

The problem, according to employees working in the processing and distribution facilities, as well as a closer reading of the OIG report, is that the late and extra truck trips were a symptom of the problem, not the cause. Remember, the trucks were being held—or called to make extra trips entirely—because the mail wasn't ready. Now, the mail still isn't ready, but the trucks are leaving anyway.

"The truck leaving on time is a good thing if the mail is in it," one employee at a distribution facility told Motherboard. "But this is not the case." Under DeJoy, the USPS has accomplished its goal of spending less money—by delivering less mail.

So what is causing the late mail sorting in the distribution facilities? There are two main problems. First, processing facilities are understaffed, according to both postal management interviewed by the OIG and unionized employees interviewed by Motherboard. Short staffing, high turnover rates, and employees taking time off for legitimate reasons—and slightly less legitimate reasons such as to attend a football game, as mentioned in the OIG report—results in facilities not having enough workers to run the machines and load the trucks. And these site visits were before the pandemic which has made the problem even worse.

One reason the USPS doesn't have enough workers is because of the 2006 Postal Accountability and Enhancement Act (PAEA), a bipartisan effort which saddled the USPS with tens of billions of dollars in unnecessary debt in the form of future retiree benefits that had to be funded immediately, torpedoing its finances and forcing it to undertake austerity measures such as slashing its workforce through attrition. From 2008 to 2018, the USPS reduced the number of employees by 11 percent while also increasing the number of "non-career" employees (ones with few benefits, low pay, and an annual turnover rate of one in three) by 54 percent, according to a separate OIG report. Now, overtime is a key part of the USPS's operational model, because hiring these non-career employees and relying on them to pick up the slack to move the mail is cheaper than hiring more "career" employees with better pay and solid benefits.

The second issue at the distribution facilities is what the OIG called "management oversight issues" due in part to short-staffing, lack of adequate management training, and turnover. As a result, management simply doesn't sound like they're doing a very good job. The OIG report says they don't communicate with workers, use available software to make sure mail was not being processed either too early or too late, or take an active role in monitoring conditions on the floor.

Frankly, it is astounding that out of all the lessons in this report, the one DeJoy chose to hone in on was the truck trips. It is possible he did so because his expertise is in trucking and logistics, so that's what his brain gravitated towards. It is also possible this is what he noticed because they are the main statistics presented in the "Highlights" section, while most of the other findings are buried in the report itself.

But the most telling element of DeJoy's plan is that, despite his fondness for citing this report as the impetus for his disruptive changes, he did not follow the report's recommendations. There are two different "Recommendations" sections, and neither of them suggests a sudden mandate to run all truck trips on time. Instead, the report recommends a slate of extremely mundane bureaucratic tweaks to get the distribution facilities to run better, such as putting signs on or near the machines that clearly lay out mail processing schedules and truck departure times.

Moreover, the report specifically advised USPS to wait to develop a plan until "the impacts of COVID-19 begin to subside." DeJoy did not do this. His now infamous "Pivoting For Our Future" memo, which outlined the elimination of late or extra trips, was issued on July 10, right in the middle of the nationwide spike in cases that began in mid-June and peaked around July 20.

All this is to say, even stipulating DeJoy's intentions are as innocent and civic-minded as he claims they are, the one major decision he has made in his time as postmaster general does not accord with the advice he says he's following. Even his claim that he identified billions of dollars in savings by running the trucks on time isn't in line with the OIG report he says is his evidence for it. The report says potential savings would be just $385.6 million, because so much of the overtime identified in the report is unavoidable without hiring more employees.

DeJoy says he is trying to fix an unsustainable postal service, one that could not continue to operate the way it did. No doubt, there are numerous problems within the postal service worth addressing, and he correctly identified an important oversight report that has a lot of helpful suggestions in it. But DeJoy's actions raises a lot of questions, including whether he actually read the entire report.

Why Louis DeJoy’s One Big Change to the USPS Backfired syndicated from https://triviaqaweb.wordpress.com/feed/

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