dserwer1

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Between a rock, a hard place, and the US

Not a good place to be:

Syria’s Kurdish forces were once spread along Syria’s northern border with Turkey in three main concentrations. Afrin lay in the west, Kobani east of the Euphrates, and Hasakeh in the east. They have now lost control of Afrin to Turkiye and its proxies, who are threatening Minbij. Ankara wants all Kurdish forces at least 30 km from the border. Meanwhile Syria’s de facto new leader, Ahmed al…

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No free country without free women

Forty-two year old Ahmed al Sharaa is the leader of Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS). That makes him the de facto main power in Syria today. HTS led the successful assault on Syrian government-controlled territory that ended in the surprising fall of President Bashar al Assad. Early indications The question is how al Sharaa will use his power. We have some early indications. He has tried to reach out…

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Iran's predicament incentivizes nukes

Iran is the biggest loser in the Middle East over the past year. Israel has been attacking Gaza for 14 months without restraint. Iran’s Hamas ally has lost most of its military capability and virtually all of its governing authority. Israel has also destroyed the bulk of Lebanese Hizbollah missiles and thousands of cadres. The Iran-friendly regime in Syria is gone, to the benefit of Iran’s rival…

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Getting to Syria's next regime

The fall of the Assad regime in Syria was swift. Now comes the hard part: building a new regime that is an improvement. We know from past experience some of the elements required. Let’s review those, in light of the discussion among Syrians above. Safe and secure environment Above all, a safe and secure environment free of large-scale violence is a prerequisite. The biggest threat for now is…

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Grenell's special missions

President Trump has announced that Ric Grenell will be Presidential Envoy for Special Missions. Ric, he says, “will work in some of the hottest spots around the World, including Venezuela and North Korea.” To my knowledge, this is a new job definition. In the past, presidents have often named special envoys for specific issues, not for “special missions” in general. What he did in the…

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What the US should do in Syria

I found the above MEI event informative, especially Wael al Zayat’s proposals for shifting American policy. Starting about 39:30, he proposes: A general license for export of some priority goods and services to Syria, including in the finance and energy sectors. He says such licenses were issued for six months of earthquake relief in 2023. Humanitarian assistance for the Syrian people. Support…

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More remains to be done, but credit is due

Opposition and Turkish forces now control Syria’s northwest, northeast, north, south and the main cities of its north/south axis. But most of the west–the provinces of Latakia and Tartus–are still not fully in opposition control. Ditto much of the center. The Alawites The Alawite sect to which Bashar al Assad belonged constituted only about 10% of Syria’s population before the civil war. But…

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The fight for justice in a post-Assad Syria

Colleagues at the Syria Justice and Accountability Centre (SJAC) have posted this statement welcoming the fall of the Assad regime and looking ahead to a just outcome: Thirteen years ago, SJAC began preparing for the day after the fall of the Assad government, with the steadfast belief that Syrians would someday have an opportunity to pursue meaningful justice and accountability for the crimes…

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Winners and losers from Assad's fall

The success of Syrians in deposing Bashar al Assad poses the question of who wins and who loses. Inside Syria, Hayat Tahrir al Sham is the big winner for now. It led the breakout from Idlib and inspired the many risings elsewhere in Syria. There are lots of other countries that stand to win or lose something in the transition. Let’s assume Syria remains reasonably stable and its government…

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Will Syria stay together or fragment?

One of the threats to Syria now that Assad has fallen is fragmentation. In my experience, all Syrians say they want to preserve the country and its borders. But the conflicts among them and with neighboring countries can foil that goal and lead to partition. The pieces of the puzzle Syria’s population is mixed. Ninety per cent of its population is Arab. The rest is mainly Kurdish and Turkmen.…

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He talks the talk, will he walk the walk?

Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al Sham, is on a roll. His forces are leading a breakout from Idlib province that has now taken two major cities, Aleppo and Hama. The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) forces of Bashar al Assad have retreated from both. HTS and its allies are now on the outskirts of Homs. Kurdish forces have evicted the SAA from Deir ez-Zur and environs. Other opposition…

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Assad is imploding, but it's not over yet

With Russia preoccupied in Ukraine and Iran weakened, Syria’s President Bashar al Assad is now under siege. The forces opposing him include both Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) and Turkish-supported rebel groups. Opposition forces in several Syrian provinces are joining the fray, as are the Syrian Democratic Forces. HTS and the Turks have been governing in Syria’s northwest Idlib and Afrin provinces.…

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Trump has gone way too far

I haven’t commented yet on Donald Trump’s nominations most egregious nominations. He wants Pete Hegseth to be Secretary of Defense and Kash Patel to be FBI Director. These are outrageous choices. I’ll be horrified if the Senate confirms them. A drunk, abusing, corrupt Christian Zionist Hegseth abuses women, including those who worked for him. He is a Christian nationalist and white supremacist.…

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To tweet or not, that is the question

The answer is yes, but...

I am now beginning to post on Bluesky, the latest competitor of X/Twitter. I have profiles on Threads and Post, but I haven’t used them. Those two competitors never took off. I don’t know if Bluesky will either. But the election results stimulated an exodus of interesting people from Twitter. They are mostly Democrats and never-Trump Republicans. I haven’t run into any Trumpkins there. Why…

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Thanksgiving anxieties are justified

Today is the autumn pause the United States calls Thanksgiving. It is pretty much the most popular holiday across the entire population, marked by people of all religions and ethnicities. Unlike so many other American holidays, it is mainly noncommercial. We gather with family and friends for a giant afternoon meal to say thanks for whatever blessings have graced us. I’m fine We are in Savannah…

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Trump likes incompetence and chaos

Marco Rubio and Michael Waltz, the projected Secretary of State and National Security Advisor respectively, are fig leaves. Trump proposed them first to hide the ugly reality that followed. Lowering the bar His aim is to name people who will make him seem normal. This is difficult. He is a rapist and convicted felon who improperly stored classified material and imperiled US security. As…

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Trump's first foreign policy failure

I find it hard to cheer the widening of any war. But President Biden’s decision to allow Ukraine to strike deeper inside Russia is an exception. It has become necessary in response to Moscow’s persistence in pursuing its invasion despite colossal losses. I am not really cheering the move. It’s more like recognizing its grim necessity. The gains are small but the losses are big The Russians…