dserwer1

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Why a PM resigning doesn't matter

I’ve been preoccupied with events in DC and thus slow to comment on Serbian politics. Certainly the resignation of the prime minister is a credit to the demonstrators. They have maintained the pressure for months in the aftermath of the collapse of the Novi Sad train station canopy. Waves of protests In my way of counting this is a third wave of recent popular protests against President…

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Disgrace everywhere you look

Less than two weeks in, the Trump Administration is proving more malicious, less competent, and more destructive than we imagined. The President can’t even pretend to mourn the victims of a plane crash. He needed to parade his racism in front of the cameras as well by blaming the crash on diversity. It turns out the Federal Aviation Administration initiated its diversity program during his own…

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Havoc is no way to run a country

President Trump’s freeze on government grants and contracts is already wrecking havoc in my world. I’m not, even indirectly, the intended recipient of any frozen funds. But organizations I know and appreciate are laying off personnel, stiff suppliers, and disrupt their programs. This is loony. If this lasts 90 days, it will create economic havoc and even cause serious health problems, since…

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Four more years is four too many

It’s a sad day for America. Not only has Donald Trump re-entered the White House. His wealthy buddies are no longer hiding their allegiances. Elon Musk is not only supporting Alternative für Deutschland. He is copying a salute most Germans still remember with shame. Off to the expected scams Trump’s first moves are against immigrants and in favor of the fossil fuel industry. Ignoring the 14th…

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Beyond ceasefire, what can really happen?

The Gaza ceasefire went into effect today, after a few hours delay. Reports are that humanitarian supplies are entering. Hamas and Israel are arranging or exchange of hostages and prisoners. This phase is to last 6 weeks, after which a more permanent cessation of hostilities is to commence. What are the prospects for a longer agreement? The next phase Secretary of State Blinken helpfully…

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Come for lunch, stay for the talk!

Georgetown January 20 2015 posterDownload

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An opportunity that may be missed

The Middle East is in a rare period of rapid change. The Assad regime in Syria is gone. Its successor is still undefined and uncertain. Israel has crippled Iran’s Hamas and Hizbollah allies. It is trying to do likewise to the Houthis in Yemen. Egypt is on the sidelines, preoccupied with civil wars in Libya and Sudan. A weakened Iran is contemplating whether nuclear weapons would help to restore…

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Democracy doesn't favor a serious peace

The headlines today say Hamas and Israel have reached a Gaza ceasefire deal that will allow exchange of hostages/prisoners, get Israeli troops to withdraw, and infuse humanitarian assistance. All that is good. What it is But it is still only a ceasefire, not even a formal end to hostilities never mind a peace settlement. The ceasefire is to last seven weeks, during which negotiations on…

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Things in the Balkans can get worse

My post yesterday on Biden’s less than sterling foreign policy legacy disappointed my Balkan fans. They thought his weak performance in their region merited attention. So here is a moment of attention. Let’s start with Trump’s first term, 2017-21. Trump disappointed In 2020, then President Trump signed with Kosovo Prime Minister Hoti and Serbian President Vucic separate agreements on “economic…

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A stronger American still fumbles

President Biden made a farewell appearance at the State Department yesterday. As a former Foreign Service officer, I’m of course delighted that he did this. It is especially important and timely because the Department now faces Donald Trump’s threat of loyalty tests and mass firings. Biden’s understandably directed his remarks at justifying what his Administration has done on foreign policy. So…

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Defending against Trump's worst moves

I’ve already said what could go wrong in 2025. I’m not inclined to change any of that. If anything, the past two weeks has confirmed much of what I said on January 3. Trump has doubled down on his stupid proposals for Greenland, Panama (where China does not operate the Canal), and Canada. That is smokescreen. He is preparing to meet Presidents Putin and Xi. Those meetings have often led to…

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What could go wrong in 2025

The next year promises to be a challenging one, both at home and abroad. I’ll leave the prognosticating inside the US to others. Abroad I expect the new Trump Administration to disappoint in many ways. Ukraine Trumpians have already proposed to Russian President Putin an end to the Ukraine war along current confrontation lines. Ukraine would stay outside NATO for 20 years. The Europeans would…

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The foreign policy smokescreen

As Donald Trump prepares to assume the presidency January 20, he is talking obvious nonsense about Canada, Greenland, and Panama. What is he up to? The nonsense The three propositions, as best I understand them, are these: Canada should become the 51st state; Denmark should sell Greenland to the United States; Panama should lower shipping fees through its canal or the US will take it back by…

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Between a rock, a hard place, and the US

Not a good place to be:

Syria’s Kurdish forces were once spread along Syria’s northern border with Turkey in three main concentrations. Afrin lay in the west, Kobani east of the Euphrates, and Hasakeh in the east. They have now lost control of Afrin to Turkiye and its proxies, who are threatening Minbij. Ankara wants all Kurdish forces at least 30 km from the border. Meanwhile Syria’s de facto new leader, Ahmed al…

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No free country without free women

Forty-two year old Ahmed al Sharaa is the leader of Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS). That makes him the de facto main power in Syria today. HTS led the successful assault on Syrian government-controlled territory that ended in the surprising fall of President Bashar al Assad. Early indications The question is how al Sharaa will use his power. We have some early indications. He has tried to reach out…

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Iran's predicament incentivizes nukes

Iran is the biggest loser in the Middle East over the past year. Israel has been attacking Gaza for 14 months without restraint. Iran’s Hamas ally has lost most of its military capability and virtually all of its governing authority. Israel has also destroyed the bulk of Lebanese Hizbollah missiles and thousands of cadres. The Iran-friendly regime in Syria is gone, to the benefit of Iran’s rival…

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Getting to Syria's next regime

The fall of the Assad regime in Syria was swift. Now comes the hard part: building a new regime that is an improvement. We know from past experience some of the elements required. Let’s review those, in light of the discussion among Syrians above. Safe and secure environment Above all, a safe and secure environment free of large-scale violence is a prerequisite. The biggest threat for now is…