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The Taliban in Afghanistan’s once impregnable Panjshir Valley

Last month driving up Afghanistan’s magnificent Panjshir valley, you couldn’t help thinking if the resurgent Taliban would ever be able to break its defences, both natural and from the Tajik-dominated populace. With its jagged cliffs and plunging valleys, Panjshir has been largely out of bounds  for the  Taliban, whether during the civil war or in the past 10 years when it has expanded a deadly insurgency against western and Afghan forces across the country. But on Saturday, the insurgents struck, carrying out a suicide bombing at a provincial reconstruction team base housing U.S. and Afghan troops and officials. They were halted outside the base, but according to the provincial deputy governor they succeeded in  killing two civilians and wounding two guards when they detonated their explosives. The Taliban claimed responsibility, saying the first suicide bombing in a decade was a message to Western forces that they were not secure anywhere in the country. They said the  bombers came from within Panjshir, which if true  would worry people even more  because that would suggest the penetration was deeper and there could be more attacks.  The Long War Journal’s Bill Roggio wrote that the bombing was a propaganda coup for the Taliban. Panjshir is the home of the legendary Northern Alliance commander Ahmad Shah Massoud who was assassinated by two days before the Sept 11, 2001 attacks. Under Massoud’s leadership the Panjshir Valley held out against not only against the Taliban, but famously the Soviet before them. All along the drive by the side of the rushing Panjshir river on way to Massoud’s hilltop mausoleum, the relics of the war against the Russians have been preserved : rusted tanks on roadsides and an overturned  armoured personnel carrier in the river. There were giant Massoud posters everywhere and because it was the anniversary of his assassination at the hands of a pair of men who pretended to be journalists, the ceremonial gates to the valley were draped in black. And yet there were concerns even then . Security was tight at each of the gates on the narrow and winding highway through the tall mountains, and the Afghan police who stood guard said if Panjshir had been spared the kind of attacks the Taliban had mounted in the rest of Afghanistan,  it wasn’t for lack of trying . They had already carried out attacks in neighbouring Nuristan province and according to a local Afghan police commander responsible for security at one of the checkpoints, American helicopters had been spotted in the area a few days before the anniversary, firing rockets over a hilltop. It wasn’t clear who they were targeting, the commander said. Even the proud Panjshiris were worrying about the expanding Taliban influence, especially concerned at the time about government attempts to seek reconciliation with them.  One Afghan elder who lost his son in the war against Russians said his village was fully armed to fight  the Taliban.  There was no way they were going to accept the Taliban in the Panjshir, he told me.  Another local who ran an eating house by the side of the river said he was worried about the growing number of outsiders in the valley. Many, including a group of people from the southern Kandahar province we met at Massoud’s mausoleum, said they were visiting the  area attracted by its cooler climes.   But there were also others,  including a militia commander surrounded by gun-toting guards who swept up to the restaurant the day we were visiting in a cavalcade of vehicles and demanded food. Those were the ones that worried the owner  Jamaal Mohammed the most.

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UPDATE 1-CNPC, Shell refinery JV in deal with local govt

* Shell likely to lead in the Shell-Qatar side* Imported condensate eyed as feedstock for petchemBEIJING, Oct 13 (Reuters) - A proposed refinery, a petrochemical joint venture between China's CNPC, Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Qatar, this week signed a framework deal with local authorities in eastern China's Zhejiang province where the mega project will be built.The project, to include a 400,000-barrel-per-day oil refining and 1.2 million tonnes-per-year ethylene plant, won initial approval from the National Development and Reform Commission, the country's macro planner, in June, industry officials have said.Pending final government approval, which also includes an environmental clearance, the greenfield refinery would give Shell and Qatar their first solid foothold in the world's No.2 oil consumer, which is embarking on a refinery building boom.The Taizhou venture, in coastal Zhejiang province, will use imported condensate and other raw materials to produce ethylene and other petrochemicals, CNPC said in a company newspaper."The agreement further clarifies work scope and targets for each side, reflecting sincere intentions to cooperate," it said.In January, Qatar Oil Minister Abdullah al-Attiyah and Wang Yong, head of the state-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC), which is both a regulator and shareholder in most of China's big state-owned companies, pledged to strengthen cooperation in the oil and gas sector and discussed the Taizhou project.Industry experts told Reuters that the project, likely to cost close to $10 billion, would be led by Shell on the foreign partners' side. Such an alliance follows a giant supply agreement between Qatar and China."The project looks promising to win Chinese government's final blessing, as China may see Qatar quite a stabilising factor among the Middle East resource nations," said an industry veteran.CNPC is parent of PetroChina , Asia's top oil and gas firm.In May 2010, CNPC and Qatar Petroleum signed a 30-year deal for gas exploration and production in Qatar, holder of the world's third-largest gas reserves. Shell, as operator, will hold a 75 percent equity stake, with CNPC holding the remainder.

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Analysis: Alleged plot deals new blow to Iran nuclear diplomacy

"I wouldn't say that it is dead forever," said Gala Riani, senior Middle East analyst at London-based IHS Global Insight. "But it is difficult to see it being restarted any time soon."Among other factors, outrage among American voters may make it hard for U.S. President Barack Obama to appear to be offering deals to Tehran while seeking re-election a year from now.That is bad news for those holding out hope for a negotiated end to arguments over the Islamic state's atomic ambitions - which Western powers and Israel say are aimed at building a bomb - and avert any threat of wider conflict in the volatile region.Tehran, which denies seeking nuclear weapons, dismissed the allegations as "mischievous," leaving observers to debate what lies behind them and who, within Iran's fractious elite or among their enemies, might benefit from such a plot, or its exposure.Either way, the row that has erupted in the wake of the U.S. accusations may frustrate those seeking a rapid deal to prevent the risk of diplomatic tension turning to armed conflict.Nuclear experts say time is of the essence in trying to defuse the issue as Iran is getting closer to being able to build nuclear weapons and the United States and Israel have not ruled out military action to stop that from happening.A push by the six world powers involved in talks -- the United States, China, Russia, France, Britain and Germany -- to seek a diplomatic outcome with Iran has been deadlocked since a fruitless meeting in Istanbul in January.Iran, a major oil producer, now says it is prepared to resume the talks and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad last month sought to revive a deal over nuclear fuel that was intended to let Tehran operate a research reactor and help build trust between the two sides. That proposal fell apart in 2009.Russia has advocated a phased plan in which Tehran would address concerns that it may be seeking atomic arms, and be rewarded with an easing of sanctions.OBAMA RE-ELECTION BATTLEBut the prospects for any revival of nuclear dialogue appeared to suffer a serious new setback with Tuesday's allegations by the United States that Iran had backed a plan to assassinate Saudi ambassador Adel al-Jubeir."It is obvious that it is going to have a very negative impact on all the efforts to return to negotiations or to diplomacy," said Oliver Thraenert, a senior fellow of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.Obama, who sought to ease 30 years of enmity with Iran after he came to power in early 2009, would not want to "show any weakness" regarding the Islamic Republic ahead of his re-election bid next year, Thraenert said.The Democratic White House has pushed back hard at a Republican charge that Obama has shown a lack of resolve abroad."The assassination plot will almost surely make it impossible for Obama to take any diplomatic initiative on the nuclear front," said Mark Fitzpatrick, a director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies think-tank.Analysts are unsure how far any plot may have had official blessing in Tehran, and if so which of various factions within the establishment might be involved and to what end. Some observers also question whether there may be ulterior motives on the part of U.S. or other officials in making the allegations.SANCTIONS IN PROSPECTIn any case, Iran now faces a possible tightening of Western sanctions, in addition to four rounds of U.N. measures and separate U.S. and European punitive steps over its nuclear program in the last five years.Britain said it was consulting with the United States and other countries about imposing new sanctions. Washington and Saudi Arabia are discussing taking the matter of the alleged plot to the U.N. Security Council.The latest turn for the worse in relations comes shortly after some U.S.-based think tanks urged the Obama administration to test Ahmadinejad's offer in September to halt the enrichment of uranium to levels where 20 percent of it was in the form of the fissile isotope. In return, he wanted foreign reactor fuel.Iran's move in early 2010 to refine uranium up to 20-percent purity alarmed the West as it took Tehran closer to 90-percent, bomb-grade material. It had previously only enriched to the 3.5 percent level usually required to fuel power plants.Iran says it was forced to enrich to 20 percent to make fuel for a Tehran reactor which makes isotopes to treat cancer patients, after a tentative accord for an exchange collapsed.A U.S. State Department spokeswoman last month dismissed Ahmadinejad's proposal as an apparent "diversion from the real issues," in comments highlighting deep mistrust of Tehran's motives in making the proposal."It would be difficult for the Americans to be seen essentially as extending a hand to the Iranians," IHS's Riani said.Prominent proliferation expert Graham Allison of Harvard University's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, echoing the views of others, last week said Obama should seize on the proposal from the Iranian president."A stockpile of uranium enriched to 20 percent shrinks the potential timeline for breaking out to bomb material from months to weeks," Allison wrote in the Washington Post on Friday. "President Obama should act now to test Ahmadinejad's word."But the United States is unlikely to be in any mood for that after U.S. authorities said they had broken up the scheme by two men linked to Iran's security agencies to kill the Saudi envoy.Fitzpatrick, a former senior U.S. State Department official, said: "Now, the impulse will be strongly focused on teaching Iran a lesson, not exploring possibilities for compromise."

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TSMC sees weak global economic growth over next year

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC), whose major clients included graphics chip maker Nvidia Corp , and other major chip makers have been hurt as the euro zone crisis and a weak U.S. economy softened demand for technology products.Dutch chip equipment maker ASML on Wednesday said it saw signs of slowing growth in the semiconductor industry, except in the technology needed to produce tablets and smartphones, and avoided making predictions for its own performance next year.TSMC and United Microelectronics Corp last week posted big drops in September revenues after demand weakened as customers adjusted inventories, though for the quarter as a whole the numbers met expectations.Analysts expect the downward trend in the two companies' revenues to continue, with 10-20 percent drops in the fourth quarter from the third as big clients slash orders for December.Around one hour into trade, TSMC's ADR rose 1.43 percent in New York trading, roughly in line with the Nasdaq Composite Index .