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Tropical Storm Phillipe – Update – PM/10-28  So TD 18 became Tropical Storm Phillipe tonight and the models are inconsistent with exactly what the strength could be.

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Tropical Depression 18 – Update 10-28 The low that was piddling around the northern Caribbean Sea is getting somewhat better organized and looks like it will become a Tropical Storm soon.

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First attempt to draw, color and add effects to a picture. I used a previously drawn one as my reference and then added everything from there. Not perfect by a long shot. #BambooPen #adobephotoshopcc (at The Dude's Abode)

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Hurricane NATE Update - 10-7b

Hurricane NATE Update – 10-7b

TT Doppler Radar

Hurricane NATE passed over Grand Isle, LA for the 1st landfall, and is now nearing landfall By Gulfport, MS for the 2nd. Maximum sustained winds are 85 MPH with higher gusts and the storm surge is expected to be in the 7′-11�� range. There have been a few tornadoes during the day and evening and haven’t heard many reports of damage so far.

Expected Storm Surge

      #NateHurricane

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Hurricane NATE Update 10-7

Hurricane NATE Update 10-7

NATE decided to finally get his act together and is now a Cat 1 hurricane. His max sustained winds are 85 kts and he his still moving NNW. NATE is being steered by a ridge in the Atlantic and a trough to the west. If you look at the Water Vapor loop below you can see them both. NATE is expected to make landfall along the Louisiana / Mississippi coast as a possible Cat 2. The outflow and…

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Tropical Storm Nate Update 10-6

Tropical Storm Nate Update 10-6

Live Belize Radar

Sorry for not much updating yesterday I was sick and wasn’t really able to post anything. Tropical Storm Nate is trying to get his act together. There has been not much inner core structure however the interaction with land is the the culprit. Now that the storm will have a run over warm water we will see what happens. The winds are estimated at 45 kts and the motion is…

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Tropical Storm Nate Update 10-5b

Tropical Storm Nate Update 10-5b

Tropical Storm Nate is sitting over Nicaragua now and should come back over the Southern Gulf later this afternoon and the intensification should occur. The amount however is still up for debate. Some models have it as a hurricane while other keep it as a tropical storm. Conditions favor development, but the interaction with the low moving West through the Straits of Florida may cause it to…

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TD 16 (Tropical Storm Nate) Update 10-5 Just woke up to evaluate the 00Z EURO model, it looks like the model is starting to agree with the GFS and it looks like Louisiana may be in it's gunsights. We will of course keep watching and update in the morning.

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TD 16 (Tropical Storm Nate) Update 10-4b

TD 16 (Tropical Storm Nate) Update 10-4b

Air Force Flight 309 latest pass

Hurricane Hunters have found great circulation but still no inner core structure. The conditions are favorable for even greater intensification, but the same dynamics discussed earlier are still in place as far as steering. I’ll be watching the models closely since this will be playing out over the next 4-5 days and will be in the Gulf, and could be near West…

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TD 16 (Tropical Storm Nate) Update 10-4

TD 16 (Tropical Storm Nate) Update 10-4

Looks like TD # 16 just decided to make an appearance over the past 12 hours or so and looks like it will be Tropical Storm Nate shortly. The depression is currently wandering slightly NW and should be in favorable waters and upper atmospheric conditions to allow for some intensification. A mid-level trough over the Caribbean Sea should begin moving into the Gulf picking up the storms forward…

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Invest 99L Update 10-1 With the weird upper atmosphere 99L has dissipated for now. It was last seen drifting west go it is possible it could still re-energize once it gets over the Gulf.

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Invest 99L Update - 9-30a

Invest 99L Update – 9-30a

Invest 99L has moved into the state and upper level conditions are not conducive for development, but it still ain’t over. 99L will be with us over the next few days and depending on whether it wanders out into the Gulf it could still develop into something. Whether or not 99L develops there is a stream of moisture from Florida down to the Caribbean Sea. We need to watch the what the low does,…

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Invest 99L Update – 9-29a Invest 99L has changed tracks and is now looking like it will be more of an issue to the Florida West Coast.

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Tropical Update AM / 9-29

Tropical Update AM / 9-29

 So of MARIA and LEE continue their push out into the Atlantic, Invest 99L is lurking just north of Cuba in the Straits of Florida. 99L will probably not blow up into anything dynamic because by Sunday the upper atmosphere will be working against it, however in the meantime there is a chance of it getting together enough to perhaps become Tropical Storm NATE. Regardless whether it goes Tropical…

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Tropical Update 9-28

As Tropical Storm MARIA begins speeding away from the US she will bring a little winds to the Canadian Maritimes, but should become an extratropical low, join up with a low in the North Atlantic and then carry off with Lee to Ireland. Sitting just south of Cuba however is an area of disturbed weather that could develop some since it is in a favorable environment as it moves up the Florida East…