#yes this is an edit of that meme with the warrens
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#yes this is an edit of that meme with the warrens#i know which ghost-hunting duo I'D rather be like#insidiousposting#insidious#insidious franchise#specs insidious#tucker insidious#spextkr#spxtkr#leigh whannell#angus sampson
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**Random fandom related rant incoming regarding ROT//TM//NT, don't like don't read**
Okay so, if any of you have followed me for a while, you know that I was in the Rot//TM//NT fandom for like three years before eventually leaving for the most part, save for occasionally peeking in on things (and taking part in the second Fashion zine, which is still in-progress if anyone's wondering).
When I left the fandom, my major point for WHY I left was that I felt like the fandom was becoming way too angst and gore heavy, being way too obsessed with post-movie stuff regarding the Kraang, the apocalyptic future, characters getting brainwashed/mutilated/going through ptsd/disturbing scenarios in general, etc.
This is still my main reason for why I'm still (and probably will always, regardless of how often I end up revisiting the show in the future) keeping my distance from the fandom. However, my other main reason is just the sheer fact that the fandom has a favoritism problem when it comes to the turtles - specifically the fact that Raph is essentially pushed to the sidelines in fandom works I'd say 85-90% of the time.
Just a reminder that I do not - and have not - check the tag every day so maybe my view on things is skewed, but of the ROT//TM//NT stuff that still makes its way into my Tumblr view space or YouTube algorithm, this is definitely how things seem to be.
In general, when it comes to art and fics and edits and all that, pretty much 8 times out of 10 it's going to be focused on either Leonardo, Donatello or both. Without a doubt, when it comes to fan creations involving the turtles, these two get the most solo-pieces. Like- at this point it's not even close. It cannot be denied that they are the fan favorites.
Mikey is next in line, because he's the funny and cute and chaotic youngest sibling, and then Raph is dead-last, getting the least amount of solo-pieces. Hell, half the time when I see Raph included in an art piece/fic/edit, it's only because it's centered around ALL the turtles, making him seem like an after thought. (and even then I've seen plenty of stuff where the artists/writers/editors focus solely on 'the twins' and Mikey, and then either don't include Raph at all or give him very little focus)
What's more, adding onto my frustration at just how angst-focused the fandom was when I left (and, from what I can tell based on my brief pop-ins, still seems to be) is that whenever you DO manage to find a Raph-focused fandom thing, it's him in these angsty or depressing scenarios/AUs, or he's crying over one of his brothers, or he's being the one giving comfort to his brothers.
Because that seems to be all the fandom sees him as! He's the protector, the Big Bro/Mom of the group, the one who dies first in the bad future, the one who we can project bad childhoods onto - though that's not to say that the others don't get projected onto either, they all absolutely do.
As such, you could argue 'oh well, this is just a part of the fandom, it's not a slight against Raph specifically' except it IS because while yes, all the other Turtles get plenty of angst art/fics/edits too, they also get plenty of fun stuff - memes and silly lighthearted scenarios and works where they get to be cool and badass. And as far as I can tell, Raph - for the most part - doesn't get that. At best, he'll get the fandom making jokes about how he's the dumb one or the emotional one. I remember coming across this one Hippoworm fic where all the other turtles got to participate in their wedding and form bonds with Warren and Hypno, meanwhile Raph was the one who ended up being the 'bad guy' of sorts, crashing the wedding because he was too oblivious to catch onto what was happening. This is what I mean when Raph just gets either horribly sidelined or shoved into the roll of support whenever he's not the one getting tortured or brainwashed.
Outside of specific 'Raph is best Turtle' fans/creators (who were already pretty rare back when I was still in the fandom...), you don't see the art of Raph being cool or wearing cool outfits like you do with Leo/Don/Mikey. You don't get fics where he's the full focus and gets to go on this big adventure or have this big interesting arc (AND IT'S NOT CENTERED AROUND TRAUMA, I feel like I have to emphasize this because again this fandom is just so angst heavy). What's more, you go to AO3 to find ANY non-angst/lighthearted Raph-centered fics and it's nearly impossible because, to fans, it seems like he's always got to be attached to one or all of his brothers. It can't just be him or, hey, I'll even take him and a side character/one of the villains (excluding the Mud Dogs because come on now those are literally just his brothers again). Just SOMETHING that lets him be an individual outside of his family - something that, again, literally every other character seems to get!
Even when it comes to something as simple as headcanons - I'd say 95 percent of people view the 'Donnie is autistic' headcanon as canon. But you could argue that Raph has just as many moments that come off as him having autistic traits, but most fans seem to either ignore these bits or see them as jokes, once again seeing Raph as the dumb one whenever he's not the group's shield or responsible one.
On the one hand, I can't fully blame the fandom for this as the show itself often shoehorned Raph into constantly being in a support role for his family. Going by the number of spotlight episodes he gets, it's really just "Mrs. Cuddles", "Sparring Partner" and "Raph's Ride Along", maaaybe "Mystic Library" (even though most fans only remember that ep for the Donnie Rap, let's be real here) and "Man VS Sewer", though the latter still has quite a bit of focus on the other turtles - otherwise he's strictly used as co-protagonist at best and sidekick to one of his other brothers at worst. He does get to land the final blow in "Evil League of Mutants", and gets a bit of extra spotlight in both season finales... buuut then gets kidnapped by the Kraang in the movie (which, regardless of how much it makes sense for the story, it still sucks to see Raph get tortured and put out of commission for more than half the film, essentially being used as a catalyst for Leo's development).
So yeah, hard to build off canon when the canon gives you so little. On the other hand, I still can't help but side-eye the fandom every time Raph - a large/plus-sized and not conventionally attractive character - is either pushed aside completely or strictly used to uplift or prop up the other three skinny 'pretty boy' turtles. Slotting him in strictly as the 'parent' of the group and essentially adultifying him or, even worse, putting him through tons of pain or killing him off so that the others can go through a guilt arc isn't that much better.
Now, could a lot of my feelings towards... all this be personal biases and my own bitterness at my fave being seemingly slighted by the fandom? Sure, you could argue that if you really want to. But from what I've seen, experienced and recalled from my days within the fandom, I feel confident that the points I've ranted about are founded in evidence. The fandom has a huge favoritism problem in my opinion, and it's this plus a distain towards all the angst and torture/gore-fics that have really soured my feelings towards Rise as a whole - and that feeling hasn't gone away.
That's the main reason why I wanted to just get all my feelings out (hence why I'm not tagging this rant), not to attack anyone in particular but just for my own personal benefit. I do hope that eventually I'll be able to rewatch the show (though probably not the movie) and fully enjoy myself without being reminded of all the fandom hang ups and other small annoyances I have with Rise. But for now, gonna be honest, I don't really regret leaving the fandom.
#apologies for the rant. just had to get this out#also I've got nothing else to do at work so#have basically been holding onto this since I've left the fandom
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🗣' + Vervain
I can't find the meme for it right now and I have been working on this since days, but I am still not completely happy with it but imma post it now and edit later. Warning that this may all over the place or might not make much sense at times.
Deceitful, sneaky little bastard. Vervain is actually one of my favorite characters in the TV series. As a character, I think he is quite interesting. Especially since I said before: What Vervain lacks in strength, he will make up for with his cunning mind and I don’t think he gets the appreciation he deserves for that. Neither by Woundwort or the fandom.
Just because he is not much of a fighter doesn’t mean he is useless, far from it actually. Vervain has other strengths. His sharpest tool was always his mind. Vervain is someone who plots while others carry out what he can’t.
Had the general paid more attention towards that and actually listened to Vervain, maybe things could have been different. Unfortunately he is so obsessed with fighting so he only pays attention to the cowardly aspects of Vervain sadly.
It was his idea to trade the Redstone Warren rabbits for Silverweed. He and Woundwort wonder how to get Silverweed since kidnapping him will be quite the trouble but Vervain immediately thinks of a solution.
Turns out Campion is a traitor the second time, Spartina lies where the warren is located. Campion says that’s where it is and he points out after Campion is dragged away that he doesn’t break that easily, figuring out that Spartina was lying to them as well. Immediately finds a way to prove it too.
When Spartina, Blackberry and Campion are supposed to get punished by death? Vervain points out they will lose the only rabbits who know where Hazel’s warren is. Campion is the only one who gets dragged away, pressured to locate the warren unless Spartina and Blackberry will die as well.
Instantly catches on that there was something between Hazel and Primrose. He is observant. He knew Primrose was planning something and he was right.
I want to point out that Woundwort ordered him to keep an eye on Bigwig because Woundwort thought something was fishy and yet even there, Vervain received the shorter end of the stick for only following orders.
Now, Vervain is deceiving himself, so it makes sense that he would be able to sniff out a traitor easily.
A lot of his behavior makes sense thanks to his upbringing in Efrafa. Everything he did, it was always just for his chief rabbit. While yes. Vervain can be awful. a lot of his behavior I blame Woundwort for. Half of the time, it always circles back to him, though his own pettiness and distaste of being overshadowed play a factor too.
A leader has to be an example for his people but Woundwort was far from being a good one.
Woundwort, as we see with Pipkin and Hickory, can be manipulative. Woundwort drived his Owsla to exhaustion only to find out where the outsiders live. Woundwort has no troubles leaving someone to die if they are no longer of use to him. Insults others as incompetent when they fail as we see with both Campion and Vervain. Calls them fools. Goes “And you call yourself Owsla?!” When they fail.
Vervain took all his worst traits. He is manipulative. He drives other rabbits to exhaustion so they can find Hazel’s warren because of the fear of punishment that follows if they don’t. He leaves other rabbits behind to die if they pass out from exhaustion. Insults Moss by calling him inept for stepping into a trap. Also calls others fools.
Woundwort yells at them that they won’t rest until he gives the command. Vervain scolds another rabbit that he rests when he tells him so and not before. When Campion notes that he is exhausted, Vervain only responds that he is Owsla and better acts like it.
Him constantly insulting others is likely just to get his own frustrations out, to make himself feel better.
Vervain never did anything without reason or for the heck of it. Because all he ever did was following the rules of Efrafa or Darkhaven.
He is not snitching for the sake of being a snitch. He does not point fingers randomly. Vervain is smarter than that.
Primrose, Blackavar, Campion, Blackberry, Spartina? All he relies on is his gut feeling that they are up to something, but he can’t prove anything. So he is sneaking around, trying to gather proof before bringing it up to the general. That’s what makes the episode where everyone thinks he has gone insane even sadder - because Vervain usually doesn’t go crazy like that.
I used to like that episode because it was fun, and to some extent I still do but I feel like there would have been better solutions than making other rabbits think Vervain has gone insane. It's definitely not fun when he is telling the truth but he is made out to be insane. I don’t mind Vervain getting a taste of his own medicine, it’s just the way it was handled. It also falls back on Woundwort himself. If he has doubts, then why not stop it? You are the chief and your captain refused to listen. You just let him go on despite Vervain saying he will find out the truth even if it kills him.
Not to mention Moss knows that Vervain just doesn’t do things without reason. Vervain escapes later. comes back when he finds out where Hazel and the others have been. Moss is the one willing to hear him out - and I do like that detail. Campion might be favored over others, but Moss points out that Vervain doesn’t come back without reason, not when he knows what kind of punishments awaits him. And I do like that detail because that way it isn’t one sided.
I also want to mention that Campion was going to get arrested either way. When Campion doesn’t even show up, Woundwort just told Moss to put Campion under arrest for neglecting his duty, not even bothering for Campion to return and hear him out. I like that, actually. Because while he favors Campion, he doesn’t get the luxury of special treatment.
You know what makes me sad? That he is entirely dependent on General Woundwort and thinks his life belongs to him.
The wanderer went really hard with Vervain. He was attacked by predators left and right, desperately apologizes to Aspen for ditching him and then ends up in a wire and almost drowning.
Primrose is entirely valid in not wanting to help. She has suffered the most under Vervain, he dragged her away from her warren. She absolutely does not owe him anything anymore.
What surprised me, however, was that he realized what kind of rabbit he was and refuses to beg for his life further after Holly and Primrose do not want help him. I expected him to beg but I think he realized that he does not deserve it.
And he is genuinely grateful when they decide to help. I’m still convinced the small and weak thank you was meant for Primrose. He was going to take that second chance. He was free.
Unfortunately?
“Master. I live to serve you.”
That always made me sad because it didn’t had to be that way. But after getting attacked left and right, everyone else hating his guts for understandable reasons, Woundwort is all he has left. Joining up with him again was nothing more than a survival tactic. And after ditching him, it was best to avoid his wrath even further.
Vervain is my favorite in season three. It was nice to see how he acted without Woundwort and most importantly - I do like that sassy attitude he shows, even towards his chief rabbit, something he wouldn’t have dared in Efrafa. When he has enough? He has enough and you will know.
Vervain deserved better. In his own way, Vervain was loyal to him, even when it was only out of fear. He always had the shorter end of the stick, even when he was trying to cheer up Woundwort with his general being all knowing and what not. No matter how hard he worked. Vervain suffered under his reign just as much as everyone else.
Woundwort dismisses him so quickly in season three when he notes how Campion is still a traitor and that Blackberry could be too. Says he is wary of his suspicions. At this point, his hate for Campion has nothing to do with jealousy anymore or being overshadowed by him. Imagine the guy who was spying before attempts the same thing twice and your general believes him a second time, no other questions asked. That would drive anyone crazy.
Flatout tells Vervain that Silverweed is more valuable to him.
With everything that happened between them in season three, and the whole thing where he thought Vervain has gone insane, I wish there had been something where Vervain finally ended up betraying him. He deserved it. Not because he ended up liking the outsiders, not because of the goodness of his heart - but because he hated everyone else and was just so done with it. Unfortunately, he is too much of a coward to go against Woundwort.
He deserved better. He was a scumbag who’s rank often got to his head but in season three it really didn’t had to be that way. He was offered a second chance but his chief rabbit made a return.
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Music Ask Meme!
thank you @tortoisesshells and @lieutenantnorrington for tagging me!! :D I LOVE these sorts of tag games.
You can usually tell a lot about a person by the type of music they listen to.
Put your favorite playlist on shuffle and list the first 10 songs then tag ten people! No skipping! (or maybe some skipping. I’m not your dad, do what feels right)
Currently my favorite playlist is all Sondra Radvanovsky/Dmitri Hvorostovsky duets and solos, so to mix it up I just shuffled the music I have on my phone :) and yes I edited out xmas music and such
1) Le Bagne: Pitié, Pitié - Les Misérables (1991 Theatre Mogador)
2) Sunrise - In the Heights Original Broadway Cast Recording
3) Justice - Ragtime Original Broadway Cast Recording
4) Lune - Notre-Dame de Paris (2001 Theatre Mogador)
5) Verdi: Il trovatore - Act I: Tacea la notte placida (1959 Rome - Leontyne Price)
6) Beethoven Piano Sonata #8 in C minor, Op 13., “Pathétique,” 2. Adagio Cantabile - Ekaterina Murina
7) Verdi: Il trovatore - Act IV: Udiste? (1959 Rome - Leonard Warren)
8) While My Guitar Gently Weeps - The Beatles (1967-1970 collection)
9) If I Were a Rich Man - Fiddler on the Roof Original Broadway Cast (Zero Mostel)
10) Someone Who Loves Me - Amidst the Chaos (Sara Bareilles)
Classical, showtunes, and opera, plus some Beatles and Sara Bareilles? I’d say it’s and eerily accurate cross-section of my music taste haha!
Tagging: @monotonous-minutia, @lizlensky, @notyouraveragejulie, @klingonegin, @revedebeatrice, @solraneth, @babinicz, @sweatershowgirl, @muchadoabout, @maggzblair, and anyone else who wants to join in! Apologies if you are already tagged, and of course please ignore if you prefer! :D
#music#i can't believe pitié pitié (look down) was first like way to start it off#and also so much trovatore and from the same album too (also I was today years old when I realized the recording is from the FIFTIES!??!)#(i just grabbed the cds my dad had in the family bookcase and imported them into my itunes library)
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Connor-is-a-disaster-gay
So I edited it a teeny bit and wrote 3x as much this time, I haven’t written in over seven years, you have straight up gotten me to talk to people in a fandom for the first time, dork around, I made the dumbest memes that people seem to like so thank you so much
This still isn’t done or posted on ao3 yet but here ya go, it’s dedicated to you
(Disconnected)
“Nines,”
“Markus,” The two acknowledged the other with a terse nod. Neither making any movement to exchange pleasantries, they knew were they stood with each other, tense but allies. That seemed to be the theme of the general setting.
It’s been three months since the android protests, eighty-six days after Markus and his ragtag crew stood unarmed and sang with guns shoved in their faces. After President Warren announced the new discovery of intelligent life actually meeting the demands of android rights had been a slow process. Androids were freed three months ago but the actual politics of reaching citizen status were complex.
Three months and it’s finally happening, the President had flown out to Detroit to meet with Markus and the other leaders of Jericho spending the last four days in negotiations, this supposedly being the final day for the ARA to be finished and signed later tomorrow. The Android Rights Amendment. It was a privately populated event, most would be viewing from their televisions at home, and the restricted area was mostly full of people directly connected to the revolution.
Nines didn’t particularly have an interest in the entire situation, though noting given property rights had the potential of a future of not coming out of standby mode by Hank Anderson purposefully kicking him. The Lieutenant always played innocent and that was good enough for Connor.
Nines’s eyes shifted slightly behind Markus before focusing on his predecessor who was keeping conversation with the PL600 Nines learned was designated as Simon. Connor was not wearing his Cyberlife uniform, after being convinced by Lieutenant Anderson to wear according to him “literally anything else,” he settled on a gray suit, apparently different enough to appease Hank.
As if sensing his gaze, Connor turned to meet his eyes, sending a hesitant smile to Nines. Nines immediately dismissed the alert for software instability, they were nothing new. They have been frequent ever since being activated in Cyberlife Tower by the shorter RK model being followed by an army of newly aware androids. Nines did not consider himself deviant, he was superior to the RK800 model in every way, faster, stronger, resilient. Taller He thinks to himself. Connor was designed to become a deviant, Nines was designed to never be. Nines had of course not been let out of the assembly room when Connor had realized that releasing the android would not result in suddenly becoming wide-eyed and emotional, instead looking into RK900’s eyes had promised nothing but a quick and efficient death. He was released after the successful revolution where Cyberlife, despite their protests, were forced to give up any and all assembled androids in their possession. Despite not being a deviant, with Cyberlife not giving him a directive to follow, RK900 spent two weeks in Jericho, idling by with no real purpose.
He did not care.
He couldn’t.
Machines did not feel.
When he had gone to Markus to explain, just to report, he had suggested he could find some direction with his predecessor. After Connor had showed up two hours and thirteen minutes later Connor had hardly ever left his field of view. Connor did not object at the idea of the RK900 following him home, Hank Anderson however did.
“You have got to be absolutely shitting me Connor,” the aging cop scowled at RK900, already halfway closing the door in both their faces.
“I apologize Lieutenant-”
“None of that suck up Lieutenant crap Connor,”
“Yes Hank,” Connor’s mouth had turned up ever so slightly at the ends.
Fascinating.
“This is the RK900 model, he was made to replace me after I had returned to Cyberlife to adjust on all the information I gathered during the investigation,”
“This is correct Hank,” imminently he was rewarded with a severe frown.
“I’ve already met shit bags who share Connors face, it’s Lieutenant to you,” RK900 nodded aware of the encounter between Hank and the RK900-60 at the Cyberlife tower.
“Another fancy prototype aye?”
“I am not a prototype,” Was what he said, processors whirring quietly “I was designed to be the final version of the RK series,” He was supposed to learn from Connor’s memories, learn what to do, what not to do, what was necessary and what wasn’t, but Connor never returned to Cyberlife. He was not complete. That was the moment the red walls appeared.
RK900 stiffened, LED spinning yellow briefly. He hadn’t been given a primary objective yet and he was not expecting to get one after Cyberlife’s fall from grace. He was without doubt that this would not change but looking at the words in the center of his HUD in perfect Cyberlife sans, he knew he had made a mistake.
INTERFACE WITH RK800
(Processing)
(Processing)
“Distracted are we?” Markus’ warm voice caught his attention.
Nines eyes flicked from Connor to his primary mission objective, sitting in the corner of his HUD, to Markus who was giving him a knowing smile. The friendly expression was not unusual to see on Markus, especially at other androids, but Nines and Markus were not friendly, despite what the latter seemed to think. Nines could see the appeal that others might have for him however, strong, bold, a real leader as most have come to look at him.
Nines narrowed his eyes “You are aware that I am the most advanced android ever made by Cyberlife, I doubt ‘distracted’ is in my code, I know it isn’t,”
Markus laughed, eyes crinkling in the corners of his artificial skin “And attitude is?” Markus clapped a hand on Nines shoulder, making him stiffen a fraction “You might believe it but I am not fooled my friend,” he raised a hand, wiggling his fingers a touch “I am a bit of an expert you know,”
Nines resisted the urge (ERROR) to scoff. Markus’ ability to convert androids to deviancy was impressive, if not insulting. Nines was secretly pleased (ERROR) that in their first encounter Markus had tried, and failed, to ‘robojesus’ him, as Lieutenant Anderson would say. Not that Markus was discouraged, attempting on several other occasions to deviate Nines before he contacted his predecessor. He glanced at the objective again, a tension spreading through him, there was only a 9% chance Markus would suggest interfacing again, but while Nines had only detached curiosity before now he decided to actively avoid this from happening. He was required to interface with Connor, not an RK200. He would not let it affect his mission.
“It was decided during my design that it was not necessary to keep some of the RK800 features, I do not have the need to improve relations to accomplish what I was for,” Markus’ smile fell to a sad one, all to aware what Nines was made for. Assassination, military tanks, the perfect killing machine. Nines might have been the first and only fully complete model but in all the information Cyberlife was forced to give up it was found that there had already been 200,000 units ordered for the state department. If the RK900 line was completed just a little bit earlier, there was no possible way the android rebellion would have succeeded.
Markus squeezed his shoulder briefly before retracting his hand. He gave a small sigh before taking a place besides Nines. “You know, I have a lot of regrets,” he nodded at Connor, who was showing the PL600 something on his hand display. 78% chance it was photos Hank and he had taken the other day at the park with Sumo. Nines had accompanied them out of the fact he had nothing other to do, and he was supposed to be observing Connor after all. Connor had sent him some of them, a couple of which Nines had not realized he had taken when he was not paying attention. One of Nines facing away from the camera picking something off the ground, the second was a similar shot taken shortly after where it showed he was holding a stick a big blur of colors peaking out of the corner of the frame, and another with Nines nearly flat on his back with a bewildered expression on his face and a very happy looking Saint Bernard in his lap, sterile clothes rumpled and both with leaves in their hair and fur respectively. The last photo was taken a bit after the first three, after Connor had excitedly showed him how to play fetch with Sumo, which had gone on for nearly an hour, Nines found the action similar to his calibration tests. The photo was taken by Hank, at Connors request, Connor and Nines were standing side by side, a sleeping Sumo, exhausted from all the exercise lying by their feet. Connor was grinning at Hank, hair wild and his casual clothes dirty from wrestling with Sumo earlier, his face bright and very alive.
(Software Instability^)
“Regret is a human emotion, it’s unnecessary,” Markus smiled sadly and that’s when Nines realized he wasn’t looking at Connor at all. Ah. The thought had never occurred to him, maybe it was because he did not have a reason to be invested in Markus’ personal life nor did he now, however…
Androids with androids, what a ridiculous concept, though not foreign to him, though he might not have all of Connor’s memories during the deviant investigations the RK800 did regular reports to Cyberlife through the Amanda program up until his turn to deviancy.
The Traci’s. The deviants with one responsible for a humans death and Connor did not shoot. Nines views this decision as weakness, warning signs of the path Connor was on his way to taking. Had he been online Nines would have spotted it, he is sure of it, then maybe he would have been sent to hunt Connor down and bring him back to Cyberlife.
Markus’ glances around for a second before stepping away from Nines “The meeting will be starting shortly, I have some other matters to attend to,” he took a few steps in the direction where Nines knew North and Josh were avoiding humans before looking over his shoulder and locking eyes once more “Don’t regret things Nines, I know you’d hate that,”
Nines watched him go for only three more seconds before heading toward the PL600 and Connor.
Connor spotted him right away. “Nines, I was just showing Simon the photos I took of Sumo from last week!” Connor restrained himself from shoving his hand in Nines face, but it seems just barely. Nines nodded in acknowledgment, he could see the PL600 looking at him with recognition and curiosity.
“I’m Simon, but I’m sure you knew that,” he gave a whimsical smile “It’s nice to meet you,”
“I know a lot about you, the head of New Jericho’s ‘Human Resources’,” Simon chuckled softly
“A joke that stuck unfortunately,”
“A PL600, a series whose main function is as a caretaker, among other things,” Nines watched as Simon face flickered for only a fraction of a second before smiling again.
“Connor told me you were different, as did Markus in much different words,”
Connor nodded “You being the last model made by Cyberlife has stirred up controversy in the public, some speculate that because Cyberlife claimed to make you unable to experience deviancy that you are not really an android,” his brows furrowed “You are becoming quite the enigma,”
Yes, he and Markus had discussed this before, it was why he was asked (commanded) to attend. Nines situation being unique did not mean that other androids had not remained in ‘factory mode’ so to speak. Another tweak to discuss and make sure all androids had a voice, whether or not they could care was up for debate.
“As long as I am not removed from you and the Lieutenant I do not see the point you want me to make to the humans,” Connor making a genuinely unhappy face when he talks about himself like that is not surprising.
What is surprisingly is the faint blue hue his face had taken, Nines detected a rise in Connors thurium levels in his facial area.
by: @myceratops
This is really good! I always think it’s really cute when Nines starts having errors and ‘malfunctions’ because of little things! I love it :D
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A-F for Revas & Warren !!
oc & mun questions │ accepting
A) Why are you excited about this character?
Warren’s just. Fun? I guess. Like he’s not a great person? So he adds a good counterbalance to everyone else. I guess? He’s a fucking disaster but extremely loving. ( short answer: whoops i made me but big & powerful )
On the other hand with Revas, I get really excited thinking about her and her story. How she influences other muses, how she’s touched the world & just how strong she is. Like. She’s just so. Good. She’s sunshine and love. She’s strength and destruction. She’s protective and warm! she’s just!!! fun! she’s fun to write in every verse and i genuinely love her so so so much. & honestly I get excited about her so much because of how far she’s come & how far she’ll go.
B) What inspired you to create them?
I needed a counter for Faron, wrt Warren. Like that’s pretty much it. I wanted someone who wasn’t trusting & caring like him. I wanted someone who knew the bullshit and the grind of immortality that would, & will, eventually help Revas with her own.
Revas has been through a lot of changes. I mean she started as an inquisitor, and i just really loved playing her in game so i was like hOO TIME TO WRITE. And then through time she changed and i just ended up liking her modern shit more and adjusted. also realized awhile ago she’s based on a comic character i came up with ages ago?? her & eludysia??? so that’s Wild.
[ rest under the cut for Length reasons ]
C) Did you have trouble figuring out where they fit in their own story?
Yes & No.
As I’ve said it’s definitely more the struggle of figuring out how to fit them into the story. For Revas, it is her story so it’s easier for me to figure out where and how she’ll react to something in her story. But Warren was definitely harder to figure out where and how he fit into the story. It was. Difficult but then it was like oh that’s Fun. and shoved him in.
D) Have they always had the same physical appearance, or have you had to edit how they look?
No character or person is ever really Static Appearance for me. Warren’s changed and will probably change a lot? He used to be shorter, and less beefy. But I liked the idea of him being more inhuman and not really fitting in completely so i made him freaky looking.
Revas has definitely changed and changes per verse? Like when she first started out she was very thin & muscular with short hair and didn’t look even close to how she does now. I do enjoy her appearance now tho! I think the one thing i’ve kept in every variation is the facial scars she has.
E) Are they someone you would get along with? Would they get along with you?
I think I’d probably get along with Revas? She’s sort of like half embodiment of what y’all are like to me? like the Feeling i get from my friends. & also shares some of y’alls fucking shit. Like being a Meme lord. & revas gets along with most ppl so. She’d probably hug me and be like ‘oh hon’?? probably Warren tho? MMMM. I wanna say no? But I probably. Would? Like. mmmm. It’s very complicated sort of feel. Because while I think we wouldn’t it’d be on that degree of sibling esque feels? Like fuck you no fuck you and if someone gave one of us shit we’d be like THE FUCK DID YOU SAY TO MY BRO and brawl a motherfucker.
F) What do you feel when you think of your OC (pride, excitement, frustration, etc)?
Pride. Excitement. Fear? A little. I’m not always proud of my writing. But a lot of the time, if I think of either of them, I am. I’m excited and happy that I made these characters who are actually loved by other writers, by people I love. But I’m always a little afraid that they’re too much or not enough and just general writing fear i think? Like how are they gonna react to this? are they going to hate them? that type of shit but. In general.. I’m really proud of them. Proud of myself too.
#long post#:: shut it commander ( ooc )#thanks for the ask babe#so many thing hoo#niitroglycerin#:: asks
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Task Seven
Do you have Facebook? Yes
Friend count? 359 - All friends he’s moved away from and former foster family
Liked pages? Cyanide and Happiness, Mr. Cian Twomey, Laura Clery, The Try Guys, Weird History, Owlturd Comix, Weird Nature, Cool Birb Memes, Smitty Werbenjagermanjensen
Oddest video you’ve seen on your feed? Gabe has many old foster siblings who live on the outskirts of the law- he’s seen a lot of weird videos, but the weirdest has been one of his ex foster sisters intentionally locking herself out of her apartment, doing twice the recommended dose of a highly concentrated type of acid, and trying to break in while her best friend (also on acid) filmed. She ended up breaking into her neighbor’s apartment, who luckily wasn’t home.
How often do you use Facebook? Fairly regularly- two or three times a week
Do you have Twitter? Yes
What is your username? @GabeofThrones
Follower count? 2,018
Who do you follow? @stellainthecity (Stella) @thebosmer (Finn) @MemesinHistory @GameGrumps @Zachpiona @pakalupapito @InternetHippo
Last tweet you retweeted? I genuinely crack myself tf up and either end my laughter with "ahh I love myself" or "ahhh I hate myself" it's a good time”
How often do you use Twitter? A truly annoying amount
Do you have Pinterest? No
What kind of boards do you create? N/A
Do you have Instagram? No
Follower count? N/A
What’s your favorite photo filter? N/A
Do you have a blog? No
If so, what is the name of your blog and what do you blog about? N/A
Do you have a Youtube account? Yes. It’s called College Bro Acoustic Covers
Do you make videos or just watch them? Gabe makes videos that were supposed to be just him doing songs (Imagine an acoustic cover of It’s Getting Hot in Here or a metal cover of I’m A Barbie Girl and you’ve got the general vibe) but constant interruptions from his roommates (and videos with Stella passed out drunk in the background) that were too funny to be nixed in the editing process have amassed him several thousand followers who want more videos with his roommates. His most popular video starts with the camera slowly zooming in on Liliana’s face, who says after thirty seconds of silence: Anyways, here’s Wonderwall. The camera then cuts to Gabe doing a cover of just that song.
What are your top five played songs on Spotify? Walk Of Life - Dire Straits // Dirty Deeds Done Dirt Cheap - AC/DC // Whole Lotta Love - Led Zepplin // Lithium - Nirvana // She’s So High - Tal Bachman
What is your favorite Spotify playlist? A Self Made Playlist called SONGS TO ANNOY WARREN PORTER full of really loud classic rock
Have you ever had an online dating profile? Yes
If so, on what site? Okcupid
How did that go? It went okay. He went on a few dates, made a few friends (a few short lived friends with benefits) but in his own words “I don’t have time for a girlfriend.”
What other social media apps do you have/use? Snapchat, which he uses mainly to do weird things with the filters and keep in touch with friends. His last story had him standing in front of Lili’s open doorway yelling “GET OUT OF THERE YOU GODDAMN ART THIEF.” at the dancing hot dog filter.
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Ooo yes!!! I’ve always thought that he would definitely work that route!! He obviously hasn’t had too much exposure to technology, so I like to think that either he’d work at a radio station or he’d get someone to help him out in terms of recording and editing (Addy, perhaps?)
I got this rlly vague AU idea in which it’s just a no-apocalypse where Simon, Addy and 10k work in the same radio station and have a show where they just talk about conspiracies and stuff like that. Simon worked at the NSA for a bit before he got fired for being at the wrong place at the wrong time, 10k grew up hearing about these kinds of things and is surprisingly comfortable talking about them despite not liking to talk much and Addy’s not too into it but she loves her friends, has a whole lotta fun and the job pays super well). Simon goes by “Citizen Z”, 10k by,,, 10k, and Addy just uses her real name.
I can see them getting a Youtube channel once their fanbase starts growing. It’s a kinda Buzzfeed Unsolved thing where they drop info on the places and stuff but also go there and explore and just kinda have fun. They start out local in New York but later on go to places like the Winchester house or the Queen Mary, a shit ton of places where Bigfoot has allegedly been seen, and even Roswell, New Mexico (Murphy went with them on this one. He says it was “so he could laugh in their faces once they realized there was nothing in Roswell bc aliens weren’t real”). They also got a vlog channel where they just vlog about their day to day lives.
Doc and 10k are roomates who p much consider each other family. Doc’s a therapist so he helps 10k deal with the death of his biological dad, and also supports his son’s 10k’s line of work bc the kid’s happy and that’s all that matters to him. Doc also gets allong well with the rest of the trio and hangs around the radio station a lot whenever he has time. He’s in a couple of videos and the fanbase fuckin loves him (as expected). He travelled a lot when he was younger so he knows where the shit goes down
Doc and 10k live in the same apartment complex as Murphy, an ex-con who got rich by helping efforts at making a vaccine against some obscure disease he has no idea how to even pronounce by donating his blood (which contained antibodies that successfully fought off the disease) and negotiated like 10% of the winnings the company gets from the vaccine. He’s also in good terms with “ThE FoUnDer” of the vaccine company, although he can never remember his name. His chest is all scarred from getting mauled by a bunch of dogs, or so he claims.
Simon came up with a theory that the disease his blood cured was actually the zombie virus. Murphy fuckin hates the Radio Trio (he gets along with Doc tho) bc they basically made him a modern cryptid (aka a gigantic meme) due to talking about that whole theory on their Youtube channel. He’s called “The Murphy” by the internet and is believed to be blue-skinned because the only picture they have of him is a candid taken at night (for a 6’2 guy who really loves attention he sure knows how to evade a camera). Eventually he embraces the fame, goes public and has a surprising amount of fans considering how awful his personality is. Hell, he might even get a youtube channel of his own
The only thing he refuses to rlly mention is his daughter Lucy bc he doesn’t want her exposed to that kind of lifestyle. Only the group knows about her and they make sure to keep quiet about it. Addy babysits her super often and she’s very well-loved. No one’s rlly 100% sure but she might’ve inherited Murphy’s antibodies.
Warren lives in 10k and Doc’s floor. She doesn’t hang around the group too much due to always being busy with stuff, but she got introduced to them via Doc (who invited her over to his birthday party in efforts to get her some friends) and grew attached to them. She moved to New York after her ex-husband went missing and she couldn’t deal being in a town where everyone just looked at her with pity. She’s the Group Mom and keeps them from sneaking into places they’re not supposed to sneak into (and when that fails, she keeps them away from trouble). She started off hating Murphy but later on they kinda became friends and she never realized until one day Addy pointed out the amount of time they’d spend together and she went “holy shit Murphy’s kind of my friend.”
Wow I rlly went off on this but it’s just a very fun AU to think about lmao. I stuck with only talking about the core group cuz I have no idea how to integrate those who come and go. The only one I can think of is Kaya, who works at a music station and is infamous for her freestyle raps
If not for the apocalpyse 10k would have became a cryptid hunter/conspiracy theorist blogger/youtuber. No one would know if he actually believes in all the outlandish theories he covers (”The moon is actually a hallow spaceship used to observe earth” “Now, here is possible evidence that demonic possession was responsible for the sinking of the Titanic”) because he never states his actual stance on the subject and he puts himself into a lot of weird situations to get evidence of the supernatural (”Okay so I’m staying at this old motel that was home to a string of murders twenty years ago, wish me luck.”).
His most famous video is him in Perfection visiting his uncle where no one could tell if the military conspiracy theorist or the guy with the alien hat was his uncle but some said it was the tiny geek that joined the video as a guest co-star. The entire point of that video was to interview Cletus about mix master and its (possible) affects on cryptids and aliens and if they did experimentation on aliens at Proudfoot.
#z nation#addison carver#10k#citizen z#simon cruller#steven doc beck#doc#alvin murphy#roberta warren#kaya
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Bloomberg’s Big Bet: Can Money Beat Biden’s Momentum?
In his brief three-month campaign for president, Michael Bloomberg poured nearly three-quarters of a billion dollars into building an advertising and data-mining juggernaut unlike anything the political world had ever seen.
But a big part of the strategy hinged on a wildcard named Joe Biden.
Bidens’s resurgence after a dominant victory on Saturday in South Carolina has upset that calculation in the critical do-or-die sprint before “Super Tuesday,” when Democrats in 14 states vote for the candidate to challenge Republican Donald Trump in November’s election.
It wasn’t supposed to be this way. The billionaire former New York City mayor’s strategy was partly based on expectations that Biden would falter in the first four states. Bloomberg, who skipped the early contests, would then become the moderate alternative to frontrunner Bernie Sanders, the Vermont senator and self-described democratic socialist.
Although Biden underperformed in Iowa and New Hampshire, he did better in Nevada and bounced back in South Carolina on a wave of African-American support to end Sanders’ winning streak and establish himself as the race’s top-tier moderate Democrat.
Meanwhile, Bloomberg’s once-ascendant campaign has struggled after he came under fire in debates over past comments criticized as sexist and a policing policy he employed as New York’s mayor seen as racially discriminatory. He has apologized for the policing policy and for telling “bawdy” jokes.
Advisors and people close to the Bloomberg campaign say they are still in the race and rebuff criticism that he’s splitting the moderate vote and making it easier for Sanders to win.
The campaign’s internal polling showed that Bloomberg’s supporters have both Biden and Sanders as their second choices, contrary to the perception that he was mostly peeling off Biden’s support, one campaign official said.
If Bloomberg dropped out, Sanders would be on a stronger path to victory, the official said.
Bloomberg has hovered around 15% in national polls, suggesting he will earn some delegates on Tuesday. If those polls are correct, he will likely earn fewer delegates than Sanders and Biden.
Another moderate, Pete Buttigieg, dropped out on Sunday, driven in part by a desire not to hand the nomination to Sanders, a top adviser said. “Pete was not going to play the role of spoiler.”
Bloomberg, however, has vowed to stay in the race until a candidate wins a majority of delegates needed to clinch the nomination. His campaign has spent heavily on advertising in states that vote on Tuesday, when a third of the available delegates that help select a Democratic nominee are awarded in a single day.
And it’s pinning some of its hopes on Virginia, the fourth-biggest state at stake on Tuesday and a key testing ground for Bloomberg. He made his first campaign visit here last November, and has visited another six times since. Last week, his campaign had hopes he could win or come close.
But even that plan is facing new headwinds.
After Biden’s win in South Carolina, the former vice president picked up endorsements from former Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe and Virginia Senator Tim Kaine, the 2016 Democratic vice presidential candidate — underlining how Biden’s comeback is drawing establishment Democrats who might have otherwise backed Bloomberg.
Dan Blue, a prominent Democrat in the North Carolina State Senate who endorsed Bloomberg last week, said Biden’s strong showing in South Carolina reset the race. But he said he still believes that Bloomberg can win by playing the long game and gradually accumulating delegates.
“There’s no question in my mind that this thing is very fluid and not absolute,” he said.
‘HUGE NATURAL EXPERIMENT’
Bloomberg’s heavy advertising spending, however, makes him a uniquely powerful candidate even if he lags in opinion polls.
He has spent more than half a billion dollars on ads ahead of Tuesday, more than four times the combined ad spending of his four remaining main rivals – Sanders, Biden, Senator Elizabeth Warren and Senator Amy Klobuchar, according to data from ad tracker Advertising Analytics.
The biggest chunk was spent in Super Tuesday states, $214 million through Feb. 25, including more than $63 million in California and $50 million in Texas, where one analysis said 80 percent of the ads were Bloomberg’s.
Already, Bloomberg has spent more on television ads than Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton did in their entire 2016 campaigns.
“It’s truly astonishing,” said Michael Franz at Bowdoin College in Maine, a leading researcher on political advertising. “He is giving us a huge natural experiment.”
Many of his ads feature Trump, mocking the president as a “bully.” Others introduce his life story. When he drew criticism for sexist comments and past treatment of women on the job, one ad countered with endorsements from longtime women employees.
The campaign also has pushed beyond old frontiers with digital spending. More than $106 million have been poured into Google and Facebook ads, according to disclosures by the social media giants.
Without a young network of enthusiasts on social media like the one enjoyed by Sanders, Bloomberg has tried to boost his online presence by paying for one: he has hired influential meme accounts to post messages on Instagram, and paid others $2,500 a month to share pro-Bloomberg messages on texts and social media.
Inside his campaign headquarters in New York, the staff of Hawkfish, a start-up digital analytics company, sift through huge tranches of voter data to help chart his campaign strategy.
Bloomberg decided Hawkfish was necessary because Democrats haven’t kept up with Trump’s ability to target voters and bombard them with messages, said Dan Kanninen, the campaign’s states director. “It’s a very potent, very difficult-to-overcome weapon.”
‘HOW MUCH CAN IT BUY HIM?’
His unprecedented spending has likely fueled his rise in public opinion polls from just around 5% when he entered the race on Nov. 24 to about 16% in recent polls.
“The question is, how much can it buy him, and there’s definitely a ceiling,” said Amanda Wintersieck, a political science professor at Virginia Commonwealth University in Richmond, Virginia.
In South Carolina, where he was not on the ballot but had still spent $2.3 million on advertising through Feb. 25, two thirds of the primary voters said they viewed Bloomberg unfavorably, according to Edison Research exit polls. About 77% and 51% of these voters had favorable views of Biden and Sanders, respectively.
The spending has also provided a target for opponents who say Bloomberg is stark proof that the wealthy wield too much influence over U.S. elections.
In conversations with dozens of mostly Democratic voters across seven states last week, Reuters found that Bloomberg’s spending blitz had won him a little enthusiasm, and some respect. “He might be the one,” said Garolyn Greene, 41, as she waited at a bus stop in Houston where Bloomberg held a rally on Thursday.
Others were less forgiving. Bloomberg has apologized for overseeing an increase in the use of a police practice called “stop and frisk” in New York City that disproportionately affected black and other racial minority residents.
On Sunday, as Bloomberg started to speak about racial inequality at a chapel in Selma, Alabama — one of the 14 Super Tuesday states — about 10 people, mostly black, stood up and turned their backs. Biden was seated in a place of honor with the pastor at the same church.
“I think it’s just an insult for him to come here,” said Lisa Brown, who is black and a consultant who traveled to Selma from Los Angeles, referring to Bloomberg.
The incident underlined Bloomberg’s continued struggles to win over black voters — a core constituency for the Democratic Party.
A VIRGINIA BATTLEGROUND
Bloomberg’s supporters say they hope his spending will deliver dividends in battleground states that favor moderates like Virginia, where some polls put him ahead of Biden but at a close second behind Sanders.
Bloomberg made friends in Virginia long before his campaign, spending millions to elect Democrats to state offices and congressional seats, culminating with Democrats taking control of the state legislature last November. Last week, those legislators gave final approval to a sweeping set of gun control laws – a signature cause for Bloomberg.
“I think people are appreciative,” said Lori Haas, Virginia director of the Coalition to Stop Gun Violence and a Bloomberg supporter.
Bloomberg has opened seven field offices in the state, part of a national network of offices and paid staff that has far outpaced his rivals. The campaign had more than 2,000 paid workers and 214 offices in 43 states, not counting the several hundred in his New York headquarters, said Kanninen, the campaign’s states director.
Whatever happens on Tuesday, Bloomberg and his campaign staffers have been stressing that he will keep spending into the fall to defeat Trump, whether he’s the candidate or not.
“Someone said you shouldn’t be spending all that money,” Bloomberg said on Saturday at a get-out-the-vote rally aimed at women in McLean, Virginia. “I said, ‘Yes, well I’m spending it to remove Donald Trump,’ and he said, ‘Well, spend more.’”
(Additional reporting by Joseph Ax, Elizabeth Culliford, Tim Reid and Trevor Hunnicutt Editing by Soyoung Kim and Jason Szep)
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Apple Is the Canary; Buffett Goes Kroger-ing
Apple Is the Canary; Buffett Goes Kroger-ing:
COVID-19: Greater Than Just Apple
Oh man … what a weekend! (There ain’t no party like a Presidents Day party. Am I right?)
But it wasn’t all George-cherry Jell-O shots and Abe appletinis…
In this midst of consuming my executive branch libations, I was struck with a thought: What would it take for Wall Street to wake up to the real threat posed by COVID-19 — aka the Wuhan coronavirus? (Yes, I can be one of those drinkers … occasionally.)
The financial media’s talking heads have largely downplayed COVID-19 and its potential impact … even after Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (NYSE: BABA) issued a stark warning last Thursday.
With all this denial, I increasingly feel like I’m trapped in a game of Plague Inc.
Case in point: This morning, U.S. tech bellwether Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) lowered its 2020 revenue forecast. And it blames COVID-19.
“Work is starting to resume around the country, but we are experiencing a slower return to normal conditions than we had anticipated. As a result, we do not expect to meet the revenue guidance we provided for the March quarter,” Apple said in a press release this morning.
This is a sharp 180 for Apple. Just last month, the company issued second-quarter sales guidance in the $63 billion to $67 billion range. It’s now clear that Apple underestimated the impact of COVID-19.
Because of this sluggish manufacturing restart, Apple projects temporary iPhone supply shortages and a negative impact on global sales. Furthermore, all the Apple stores in China are closed due to COVID-19, and other retailers remaining open have reduced hours and considerably lower customer traffic.
The Takeaway:
If this Apple situation sounds awfully familiar (and it should to Great Stuff readers), that’s because it’s exactly what Alibaba warned about last week.
I can’t believe that I — the guy making financial memes on the internet — had to be the one to sound the warning. But, like I’ve been saying since this whole thing began … COVID-19 will impact the U.S. economy.
It will negatively impact the market. It will negatively affect your portfolio.
Today, we’re at the beginning of Wall Street’s acceptance. Take this statement from Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya, for instance:
This will have a ripple effect of increased uncertainty and guide-downs across the semiconductor supply chain since Apple’s warning suggests a weak demand environment in China which impacts other smartphone vendors and their respective supply chains also. So the impact is greater than just Apple itself.
“Greater than Apple,” Arya says. But even this assessment focuses solely on the semiconductor sector. Other massive supply chains are woven throughout China that affect nearly every industry. It’s not just semiconductor manufacturers in China that feel the COVID-19 pinch. It’s all of them, as Alibaba warned.
Semiconductors and Apple are just the canary in the coal mine. You may have seen that Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT) said in today’s earnings report that it was monitoring the outbreak. (We’ll get to that report shortly!) The world’s largest retailer said the virus hasn’t affected its outlook for the year, but it’s keeping an eye on the situation.
Some 15% of Walmart’s merchandise is manufactured in China. As this situation drags on, Walmart, too, will be forced to lower sales forecasts. It’ll be the same for retailers such as Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT) and Best Buy Co. Inc. (NYSE: BBY), which have extensive supply chains in China.
And this is just the impact as it stands now — assuming COVID-19 stays contained to China.
OK, Mr. Great Stuff, you have my attention. What do we do?
The first rule of COVID-19 investing: Don’t panic!
The second rule is to start pruning those speculative momentum positions in your portfolio. Ask yourself: “Do the companies I hold have solid growth and steady cash flow? Do these companies have too much exposure to the Chinese market or Chinese supply chains?”
The third rule is to get defensive. Make sure you have exposure to store-of-value assets such as gold, precious metals or currencies. The Invesco CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust (NYSE: FXF) is a good example if you’re new to currencies.
Finally, the fourth rule is to find an investing guide. I know I’ve harped on this considerably this year, but it’s true. You need a voice you can trust in the volatility that’s to come.
Banyan Hill expert Jeff Yastine is a voice of reason amid the choir of panic. In a sea of uncertainty, Jeff’s a rock of financial confidence. Over his 15-plus years of financial coverage, Jeff’s honed an eye for spotting true value that outlasts volatility.
When the market panics, Jeff will be there to uncover diamonds in the rubble — well-run and solid stocks trading for pennies on the dollar.
Remember, the best time to prepare for volatility was yesterday. If you’re still looking to virus-proof your portfolio, Jeff’s research is a perfect place to start.
Click here to learn more.
(Pssst … by the way, Jeff’s about to unveil a different type of investment that he calls “Q Shares” … and they may be Wall Street’s best-kept secret.)
The Good: Buffett Goes Prepper
Some of you probably think I’m crazy right now. That’s fair enough. I’ve made fun of more than a few “Chicken Littles” in the past year. But tell me … do you think Warren Buffett is crazy?
On Friday afternoon, Buffett revealed new investments in The Kroger Co. (NYSE: KR) and Biogen Inc. (Nasdaq: BIIB). At the same time, he trimmed his holdings in Apple, Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC), Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) and American Airlines Group Inc. (Nasdaq: AAL), among others.
Notice a pattern? Buffett trimmed his largest tech holding, an airline that’s exposed to Chinese travel and a handful of large investment firms — all of which will perform negatively due to the continued COVID-19 outbreak.
But what did Buffett buy? Kroger, a consumer goods grocer with little to no exposure to China, and a biotech company. Granted, Biogen isn’t directly working on a COVID-19 cure or vaccine, but it did just secure a major patent win against Mylan NV (Nasdaq: MYL), and it has a promising Alzheimer’s treatment in the pipeline.
Great Stuff doesn’t look all that crazy now, does it?
The Bad: Weakness at Wally World
Santa Claus left a lump of coal in Walmart’s stocking this year. The retailing behemoth reported fourth-quarter results this morning that came up short across the board.
Earnings missed expectations by $0.05 per share. Revenue whiffed by $820 million. Same-store sales rose a mere 1.9%, compared to the consensus target for 2.3% growth.
The lone bright spot was a 35% surge in e-commerce sales during the quarter. For the year, e-commerce sales rose 37%, topping Walmart’s own guidance for 35% growth.
But that glimmer of hope was immediately dashed after Walmart said it expects lower e-commerce sales for fiscal 2021. The retailer also put full-year earnings at $5 to $5.15 per share — well below Wall Street’s target of $5.22 per share.
As I noted above, Walmart doesn’t see any impact from COVID-19 … yet. It’s keeping an eye on the situation. Which is a nice way of saying that the company reserves the right to lower its forecast down the road … if things don’t improve soon.
They won’t. Expect a virus-related warning from Walmart within the next month or two.
The Ugly: Virgin Territory
Companies like Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. (NYSE: SPCE) constantly remind me that John Maynard Keynes was right: The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
Since Great Stuff last panned Virgin, the stock has soared more than 89%. Year to date, SPCE has rocketed more than 210% higher.
Yet Virgin Galactic has no earnings or revenue, and its rockets can only reach the bare minimum of what’s considered space. Today, the stock is rallying because Park West Asset Management announced it owns 4.25 million SPCE shares, or 2.1% of the company.
Virgin is also nearing the final stages of its flight test program, after moving its VSS Unity spaceship to Spaceport America in New Mexico.
It’s not that I don’t like Virgin or the space industry. It’s that I’d prefer to see the company’s revenue soar before its stock. Heck, I might even settle for a workable product with earnings prospects. Right now, Virgin has none of this.
I can see Virgin’s market — I just can’t see how the company will monetize it anytime soon. But, since it’s the only pure-play space stock out there, SPCE is riding headlines from SpaceX.
And that’s not a business model. Not at all.
Above, you can see the real reason that Virgin Galactic stock is soaring ever higher. That’s right. It’s SpaceX. Elon Musk’s side project has already completed several successful launches with its reusable Falcon 9 rocket design.
Today, the company announced that it’s pushing ahead with space tourism — watch out, Virgin! SpaceX will take four private space tourists into orbit for a five-day mission. The mission is slated to launch in late 2021 to mid-2022.
If only SpaceX were publicly traded.
Great Stuff: Marco?
It’s that time again!
That’s right, it’s time to feed the Great Stuff beast!
This week, we’re focusing on COVID-19 and the new space race. Be sure to write in to [email protected] and let us know your thoughts!
Here are some of this week’s topics:
Are you prepared for a potential COVID-19 black swan event?
Do you think Great Stuff is sensationalizing the virus risks? Why?
Is Virgin Galactic all hat and no cattle?
Are you invested in Virgin Galactic? Would you rather invest in SpaceX, if it were publicly traded?
Now, you know the drill. You have about two days to drop me a line at [email protected] to make this week’s edition of Reader Feedback.
In the meantime, don’t forget to check out Great Stuff on social media. If you can’t get enough meme-y market goodness, follow Great Stuff on Facebook and Twitter.
Until next time, good trading!
Regards,
Joseph Hargett
Great Stuff Editor, Banyan Hill Publishing
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COVID-19: Greater Than Just Apple
Oh man … what a weekend! (There ain’t no party like a Presidents Day party. Am I right?)
But it wasn’t all George-cherry Jell-O shots and Abe appletinis…
In this midst of consuming my executive branch libations, I was struck with a thought: What would it take for Wall Street to wake up to the real threat posed by COVID-19 — aka the Wuhan coronavirus? (Yes, I can be one of those drinkers … occasionally.)
The financial media’s talking heads have largely downplayed COVID-19 and its potential impact … even after Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (NYSE: BABA) issued a stark warning last Thursday.
With all this denial, I increasingly feel like I’m trapped in a game of Plague Inc.
Case in point: This morning, U.S. tech bellwether Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) lowered its 2020 revenue forecast. And it blames COVID-19.
“Work is starting to resume around the country, but we are experiencing a slower return to normal conditions than we had anticipated. As a result, we do not expect to meet the revenue guidance we provided for the March quarter,” Apple said in a press release this morning.
This is a sharp 180 for Apple. Just last month, the company issued second-quarter sales guidance in the $63 billion to $67 billion range. It’s now clear that Apple underestimated the impact of COVID-19.
Because of this sluggish manufacturing restart, Apple projects temporary iPhone supply shortages and a negative impact on global sales. Furthermore, all the Apple stores in China are closed due to COVID-19, and other retailers remaining open have reduced hours and considerably lower customer traffic.
The Takeaway:
If this Apple situation sounds awfully familiar (and it should to Great Stuff readers), that’s because it’s exactly what Alibaba warned about last week.
I can’t believe that I — the guy making financial memes on the internet — had to be the one to sound the warning. But, like I’ve been saying since this whole thing began … COVID-19 will impact the U.S. economy.
It will negatively impact the market. It will negatively affect your portfolio.
Today, we’re at the beginning of Wall Street’s acceptance. Take this statement from Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya, for instance:
This will have a ripple effect of increased uncertainty and guide-downs across the semiconductor supply chain since Apple’s warning suggests a weak demand environment in China which impacts other smartphone vendors and their respective supply chains also. So the impact is greater than just Apple itself.
“Greater than Apple,” Arya says. But even this assessment focuses solely on the semiconductor sector. Other massive supply chains are woven throughout China that affect nearly every industry. It’s not just semiconductor manufacturers in China that feel the COVID-19 pinch. It’s all of them, as Alibaba warned.
Semiconductors and Apple are just the canary in the coal mine. You may have seen that Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT) said in today’s earnings report that it was monitoring the outbreak. (We’ll get to that report shortly!) The world’s largest retailer said the virus hasn’t affected its outlook for the year, but it’s keeping an eye on the situation.
Some 15% of Walmart’s merchandise is manufactured in China. As this situation drags on, Walmart, too, will be forced to lower sales forecasts. It’ll be the same for retailers such as Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT) and Best Buy Co. Inc. (NYSE: BBY), which have extensive supply chains in China.
And this is just the impact as it stands now — assuming COVID-19 stays contained to China.
OK, Mr. Great Stuff, you have my attention. What do we do?
The first rule of COVID-19 investing: Don’t panic!
The second rule is to start pruning those speculative momentum positions in your portfolio. Ask yourself: “Do the companies I hold have solid growth and steady cash flow? Do these companies have too much exposure to the Chinese market or Chinese supply chains?”
The third rule is to get defensive. Make sure you have exposure to store-of-value assets such as gold, precious metals or currencies. The Invesco CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust (NYSE: FXF) is a good example if you’re new to currencies.
Finally, the fourth rule is to find an investing guide. I know I’ve harped on this considerably this year, but it’s true. You need a voice you can trust in the volatility that’s to come.
Banyan Hill expert Jeff Yastine is a voice of reason amid the choir of panic. In a sea of uncertainty, Jeff’s a rock of financial confidence. Over his 15-plus years of financial coverage, Jeff’s honed an eye for spotting true value that outlasts volatility.
When the market panics, Jeff will be there to uncover diamonds in the rubble — well-run and solid stocks trading for pennies on the dollar.
Remember, the best time to prepare for volatility was yesterday. If you’re still looking to virus-proof your portfolio, Jeff’s research is a perfect place to start.
Click here to learn more.
(Pssst … by the way, Jeff’s about to unveil a different type of investment that he calls “Q Shares” … and they may be Wall Street’s best-kept secret.)
The Good: Buffett Goes Prepper
Some of you probably think I’m crazy right now. That’s fair enough. I’ve made fun of more than a few “Chicken Littles” in the past year. But tell me … do you think Warren Buffett is crazy?
On Friday afternoon, Buffett revealed new investments in The Kroger Co. (NYSE: KR) and Biogen Inc. (Nasdaq: BIIB). At the same time, he trimmed his holdings in Apple, Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC), Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) and American Airlines Group Inc. (Nasdaq: AAL), among others.
Notice a pattern? Buffett trimmed his largest tech holding, an airline that’s exposed to Chinese travel and a handful of large investment firms — all of which will perform negatively due to the continued COVID-19 outbreak.
But what did Buffett buy? Kroger, a consumer goods grocer with little to no exposure to China, and a biotech company. Granted, Biogen isn’t directly working on a COVID-19 cure or vaccine, but it did just secure a major patent win against Mylan NV (Nasdaq: MYL), and it has a promising Alzheimer’s treatment in the pipeline.
Great Stuff doesn’t look all that crazy now, does it?
The Bad: Weakness at Wally World
Santa Claus left a lump of coal in Walmart’s stocking this year. The retailing behemoth reported fourth-quarter results this morning that came up short across the board.
Earnings missed expectations by $0.05 per share. Revenue whiffed by $820 million. Same-store sales rose a mere 1.9%, compared to the consensus target for 2.3% growth.
The lone bright spot was a 35% surge in e-commerce sales during the quarter. For the year, e-commerce sales rose 37%, topping Walmart’s own guidance for 35% growth.
But that glimmer of hope was immediately dashed after Walmart said it expects lower e-commerce sales for fiscal 2021. The retailer also put full-year earnings at $5 to $5.15 per share — well below Wall Street’s target of $5.22 per share.
As I noted above, Walmart doesn’t see any impact from COVID-19 … yet. It’s keeping an eye on the situation. Which is a nice way of saying that the company reserves the right to lower its forecast down the road … if things don’t improve soon.
They won’t. Expect a virus-related warning from Walmart within the next month or two.
The Ugly: Virgin Territory
Companies like Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. (NYSE: SPCE) constantly remind me that John Maynard Keynes was right: The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
Since Great Stuff last panned Virgin, the stock has soared more than 89%. Year to date, SPCE has rocketed more than 210% higher.
Yet Virgin Galactic has no earnings or revenue, and its rockets can only reach the bare minimum of what’s considered space. Today, the stock is rallying because Park West Asset Management announced it owns 4.25 million SPCE shares, or 2.1% of the company.
Virgin is also nearing the final stages of its flight test program, after moving its VSS Unity spaceship to Spaceport America in New Mexico.
It’s not that I don’t like Virgin or the space industry. It’s that I’d prefer to see the company’s revenue soar before its stock. Heck, I might even settle for a workable product with earnings prospects. Right now, Virgin has none of this.
I can see Virgin’s market — I just can’t see how the company will monetize it anytime soon. But, since it’s the only pure-play space stock out there, SPCE is riding headlines from SpaceX.
And that’s not a business model. Not at all.
Above, you can see the real reason that Virgin Galactic stock is soaring ever higher. That’s right. It’s SpaceX. Elon Musk’s side project has already completed several successful launches with its reusable Falcon 9 rocket design.
Today, the company announced that it’s pushing ahead with space tourism — watch out, Virgin! SpaceX will take four private space tourists into orbit for a five-day mission. The mission is slated to launch in late 2021 to mid-2022.
If only SpaceX were publicly traded.
Great Stuff: Marco?
It’s that time again!
That’s right, it’s time to feed the Great Stuff beast!
This week, we’re focusing on COVID-19 and the new space race. Be sure to write in to [email protected] and let us know your thoughts!
Here are some of this week’s topics:
Are you prepared for a potential COVID-19 black swan event?
Do you think Great Stuff is sensationalizing the virus risks? Why?
Is Virgin Galactic all hat and no cattle?
Are you invested in Virgin Galactic? Would you rather invest in SpaceX, if it were publicly traded?
Now, you know the drill. You have about two days to drop me a line at [email protected] to make this week’s edition of Reader Feedback.
In the meantime, don’t forget to check out Great Stuff on social media. If you can’t get enough meme-y market goodness, follow Great Stuff on Facebook and Twitter.
Until next time, good trading!
Regards,
Joseph Hargett
Great Stuff Editor, Banyan Hill Publishing
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Art F City: This Week’s Must-See Art Events: The AFC Goth Benefit and More
Joseph Keckler, shot by Jaimie Warren
The time has finally come. Our Goth Benefit is here. We’ll be converting Collapsable Hole into a goth wonderland, complete with drag performers, surprise guests, and options such as handcuffs for couples. (We’re also having a goth couple outfit contest, so plan accordingly). If last year’s benefit was any indication, this is basically going to be the party of the year.
Wednesday, nurse your hangover with a likely-nipple-tastic Betty Tompkins solo show at Marlborough Contemporary. Other highlights this week include Siebren Versteeg’s digital paintings at bitforms on Thursday, the annual Seven on Seven conference at the New Museum on Saturday, and Sunday’s open studios at the Studio Museum in Harlem.
Don’t forget: Buy your Goth Opera tickets now!
T
W
T
F
S
S
Tue
Collapsable Hole
55 Bethune Street New York, NY 6:00 p.m. - 10:00 p.m.Website
The AFC Goth Benefit
As anyone who has ever attended an AFC benefit can tell you, we know how to throw a good party.
This year, our annual benefit is a celebration of all things goth. Joseph Keckler will be performing his epic, operatic “Goth Song”, we’ve got giveaways from Hot Topic (yes really), a goth photobooth manned by Sean Fader, and so much more. I’ll be DJing as Ellen Degenerate (leave goth song requests in the comments!) and promise to keep the party going long after my black lipstick has faded.
If you want some behind-the-scenes info about the benefit, check out our interview with Performa Magazine, where I talk goth with Paddy Johnson, Joseph Keckler, and Jaimie Warren (who did our awesome promo photos).
Advanced Tickets:
Artist/Student/Musician—$75.
Individual—$150
Gothic coupling (the ultimate date night for those who come in costume):$250
Additional donation levels and perks available. Tickets at the door cost $100 for artists and $200 for individuals.
Wed
Marlborough Contemporary
545 W 25th St New York, NY 10:00 a.m. - 6:00 p.m. Website
Betty Tompkins
It should come as a surprise to absolutely no one that we at AFC love Betty Tompkins. She’s been making super-graphic drawings and paintings of porn since the late 60’s, when such work was a big feminist no-no. Thankfully, today, she has an audience for her larger-than-life depictions of (often very weird) intercourse.
Bonus: Marlborough Contemporary is opening two other shows today, Julius Von Bismarck and Lucas Ajemian.
Thu
bitforms gallery
131 Allen Street New York, NY 6:00 p.m. - 8:00 p.m. Website
Siebren Versteeg: Reflection Eternal
Siebren Versteeg’s digital paintings are generated by code. One, for instance, endlessly creates a wallpaper motif. Another, “Today,” samples the crushing stream of images from the web and distorts their content into surprisingly pleasing compositions.
I saw a similar work of Versteeg’s (“Fake News”) at Material Art Fair earlier this year, and it remains one of the fair’s most memorable highlights.
COMPANY
88 Eldridge Street (5th Floor) New York, NY 6:00 p.m. - 8:00 p.m. Website
Body Language
There’s basically no information about Body Language anywhere online beyond this drawing of a dress form and a list of artists. Nevertheless, this is an absolute must-see. We have never been disappointed by Jacolby Satterwhite’s imaginative work, and in a show about the body he’s sure to shine—whether that means a vogue performance in a digitally-printed jumpsuit or a VR environment full of CGI doppelgangers having an orgy. The suspense is killing us!
Artists: niv acosta, Jimmy DeSana, Jacolby Satterwhite, Tschabalala Self
Fri
SOHO20 Gallery
56 Bogart Street Brooklyn, NY 6:00 p.m. - 9:00 p.m. Website
She Persisted
We don’t know much about the artists in this show (SOHO20 National Affiliates members) but the premise has us hooked. The title gets its name from the “weaponized meme” of Mitch McConnell’s attempted take-down of Elizabeth Warren: “Sen. Warren was giving a lengthy speech… She had appeared to violate the rule. She was warned. She was given an explanation. Nevertheless, she persisted.”
Even in an era of political theater with far more jaw-dropping soundbites, this one has maintained traction. Turning it into a show is a great idea, and we look forward to seeing the results.
Artists: B Amore, Laura Cloud, Louise Farrell, Gail Hoffman, Elizabeth Michelman, Nelleke Nix, Barb Rehg, Ann Rowles, Georgia Strange, Rosie G. Thompson, Virginia Tyler
The Center for Book Arts
28 W 27th St New York, NY 6:00 p.m. - 9:00 p.m.Website
En Masse: Books Orchestrated
Like houseplants, fluorescent lighting, and colorful rugs, books have made the jump from the realm of interior decor to full-blown contemporary art trend. Groups of books, as sculptural objects, seem to be everywhere these days. Curator Osman Can Yerebakan has clearly noted this, and organized an exhibition where groups of books are used as a sculptural medium. This should be a smart show, as it seems the tension between the book as a formal object and one that can contain content is explored.
Artists: Louis Zoeller Bickett, Jordan Buschur, Emilio Chapela, Özgür Demirci, Donald Daedalus, Leor Grady, Katarina Jerinic, Nina Katchadourian, j.c. lenochan, Liz Linden, Michael Mandiberg, Phil Shaw, Ward Shelley, Douglas Paulson, Yinka Shonibare MBE, Julia Weist.
Sat
New Museum
235 Bowery New York, NY 12:00 p.m. - 6:00 p.m.Website
Seven on Seven
We look forward to seeing what comes out of Seven on Seven every year. Sometimes the results are brilliant, sometimes goofy, and often though-provoking. The event pairs seven artists with seven people from the tech industry (researchers, inventors, capitalists, designers, etc…) and prompts them to create anything they want.
This year’s pairings (below) look to be promising, and include plenty of artists who already blur the lines between artwork and product, digital media, etc…
Artist Jayson Musson & Jonah Peretti, Founder and CEO, Buzzfeed
Artist collective and NEW INC resident DIS & Rachel Haot, Managing Director, 1776
Artist Bunny Rogers & Nozlee Samadzadeh, Engineer, Vox
Artist Olia Lialina & Mike Tyka, artificial intelligence researcher at Google
Artist Addie Wagenknecht & Cindy Gallop, Founder, MakeLoveNotPorn and IfWeRanTheWorld
Artist Constant Dullaart & Chris Paik, Partner, Thrive Capital
Artist Miao Ying & Mehdi Yahyanejad, Founder, Balatarin and Net Freedom Pioneers
Paula Cooper Gallery
521 West 21st Street New York, NY 6:00 p.m. - 8:00 p.m. Website
Justin Matherly: A recrudescence
Justin Matherly’s sculptures have an endearingly crafty, almost painterly quality to them that evokes folk objects of devotion or ancient ruins. Here, appropriately, his subject matter is Greek mythology. Specifically, Asclepius, Telesphoros and Hygeia—the ancient deities of medicine, recovery, and healthy.
Who doesn’t need a little recuperation about now?
Sun
The Studio Museum in Harlem
144 West 125th Street New York, NY 1:00 p.m. - 4:00 p.m.Website
Artists-in-Residence Open Studios
As its name would suggest, the residency program at The Studio Museum was one of the institution’s’s founding and most important programs. Twice a year, those studios open to the public, and we get a peek at the processes of some of the top Black contemporary artists. This batch comprises multidisciplinary artists Autumn Knight and Julia Phillips and painter Andy Robert. All three artists have process-intensive practices, so this edition of open studios should be particularly interesting.
The Java Project
252 Java St Brooklyn, NY 3:00 p.m. - 6:00 p.m.Website
Gina Dawson: Bad Tattoos Closing Reception
Gina Dawson has been archiving others’ terrible, terrible tattoos through a variety of media. That might be a small painting of a tramp stamp or a large sculpture comprised of detritus from her past installations. These are funny, and oddly, feel a little precious. Practically everyone I know who went to art school has at least one regrettable tattoo, so I think we can all relate to this exhibition.
Curated by Carl Gunhouse.
from Art F City http://ift.tt/2nWiwOL via IFTTT
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( slides mi url in like hey ~ )
Send me your URL and I’ll tell you || always accepting
My Opinion on;
Character in general: Warren Peace aka my favorite character ever based SIMPLY on his meme of a name?? I still haven’t seen Sky High (iKIK INK IK OK IM GONNA GET ON THAT EVENTUALLY) but I think he’s one of those characters that you just want to like interact with because they’re so like… You want your character to be the one that gets them to open up. And even though that’s rarely the case it’s still awesome to see them do that even if it’s with another character. I’m just very intrigued by Warren. Also he’s hot (haha original ik). How they play them: AGAIN I HAVEN’T SEEN THE MOVIE. But how could you go wrong? When you love a character so much, it’s hard to fuck that up. I bet you do a fantastic writing of Warren, okay. And when I finally watch the movie, I’ll go back and edit this and tell you exactly how great your Warren is ok. The Mun: I really admire you. You have so many blogs and you pour a lot of love into them. Your writing is splendid and so easy to read and so enjoyable, and you’re so unaplogetically yourself and it’s so fucking refreshing. I’m a little intimidated by you tbh, just because you’re so cool, I think.
Do I:
RP with them: IN THEORY YES but I’m so slow that I haven’t written you a starter yet but I will eventually, I can promise you that. Want to RP with them: DUH. I’m salivating over it. I’m like !!! jumps up and down, love me ink love me!!
What is my;
Overall Opinion: Your url is savage and I love it. Your autoplay scared me today bc I was on skype with a friend and was looking at smth u reblogged and I jumped so hard I was blushing like i hope they didn’t hear that, but the playlist is so good I almost didn’t care. Also that group verse you made is awesome and you deserve all the recognition you get.
**Note: My answers are all completely honest. Don’t send url if you don’t want brutal honesty
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Go Bull or Bust; Netflix Is Mr. Worldwide
Go Bull or Bust; Netflix Is Mr. Worldwide:
Go Bull or Go Broke
Now that we have some semblance of a trade deal with China — or an anti-tariff deal, as I like to call it — we can truly focus on the case for a bull market in 2020.
Yes, Great Stuff — your occasional harbinger of market doom — is looking at bull market scenarios for next year. Honestly, the only thing holding me (and the U.S. economy) back was tariffs on the second-largest economy in the world. That’s China, for those following along.
So, unless President Trump ramps up the tariff talk when “phase 2” negotiations with China begin, I predict a steady grind higher next year. (I’m still keeping the Great Stuff Trade War Cycle chart handy in my back pocket … you know, just in case.)
Yesterday, I linked to a slew of Banyan Hill experts and their predictions for 2020. If you haven’t already, click here to check them out. Today, we’re turning to headline news from Barron’s and a prediction that 2020 will only be half as good as 2019.
According to analysts at Piper Jaffray, the S&P 500 Index will hit 3,600 next year. From yesterday’s close, that’s a gain of about 13%. So far this year, the benchmark index is up a whopping 27%. About 10% of 2019’s gains have come since the beginning of October, when Chinese trade optimism was finally rewarded.
Laying the groundwork for its bull market case, Piper cites continued support from the Federal Reserve and the 2020 election.
Starting with the Fed, Piper believes that interest rate hikes will be on hold for quite a while. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the bar for a rate hike is pretty high. This is good news for Wall Street’s love of easy money. It’s also great news for the housing market, which posted a bigger-than-expected rise today in the wake of the Fed’s two rate cuts this year.
As for the 2020 election, Piper cites historical market data for its bull case. During election years with a sitting Republican president, the S&P 500 has gained 10.3% and finished in the green 75% of the time.
The Takeaway:
The Barron’s article was a bit downbeat on the bull market case. The headline, “Next Year’s Stock Market’s Gains Will Only Be Half as Good as 2019’s,” was a dead giveaway.
What I think many perennial bulls are missing, however, is just how bad the situation could’ve been (or could still be) without tariff relief. The jobs market is strong, but more expensive consumer goods still could put a strain on the American consumer. After all, most of those jobs are lower-paying, part-time positions.
Weakness in manufacturing was a real concern, and tariffs were doing nothing to improve the situation. And the agriculture market? Well … let’s hope China buying billions in U.S. farm goods comes soon enough for American farmers.
The phase 1 tariff relief bolsters all of these sectors and more. Even tech and semiconductor firms are looking pretty right now, with supply-chain worries now easing.
The bottom line is that we’re entering the 11th year of the longest bull market in history. What goes up must come down. A correction will come … eventually. But with help from a steady hand at the Fed, Trump’s phase 1 trade deal with China should help delay or mitigate the worst of what must eventually come.
For now, the bull market party rages on … albeit with a little less oomph next year.
Good: The Halo Effect
It’s looking like analyst predictions for better-than-expected Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) iPhone 11 sales are holding true.
Jabil Inc. (NYSE: JBL), which makes iPhone cases and other Apple products, is experiencing quite the halo effect. The company reported considerably better-than-expected first-quarter earnings. The company beat expectations by $0.09 per share, with revenue topping by more than $500 million. Earnings were up 17% year over year, while sales jumped 15%.
The company also boosted guidance for the current quarter, setting expectations for earnings of $0.72 per share on sales of $6.35 billion. Wall Street currently expects earnings of $0.69 per share and $6.18 billion in revenue.
While Jabil is looking to diversify away from reliance on Apple products, the company still gets about 22% of its total revenue from the iPhone-maker.
Better: Mr. Worldwide
There’s been quite a lot of talk about competition in the streaming market this year. The Walt Disney Co.’s (NYSE: DIS) Disney+ is not only a major contender for the top spot, but it also spawned the meme of the year with baby Yoda. AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) may finally get its act together with HBO Max. Comcast Corp. (Nasdaq: CMCSA) is launching “Peacock,” and ViacomCBS Inc.’s (NYSE: CBS) Pluto TV will be a force to be reckoned with.
But none of these companies — and that includes Amzon.com Inc.’s (Nasdaq: AMZN) Prime Video — even come close to the market edge that Netflix Inc. (Nasdaq: NFLX) just revealed. That edge: 90 million overseas subscribers.
Netflix just released subscriber numbers ahead of next month’s quarterly earnings report, and the figures are astounding. The streaming giant has 158.3 million subscribers globally, with 60 million in the U.S. and Canada and … again … 90 million overseas.
So, yes, competition is rising in the streaming market. Yes, growth is slow for Netflix in the crowded U.S. market. But … the company is still growing by leaps and bounds internationally. This growth outside the U.S. should give the company more time (and cash) to compete with this year’s growing crop of upstart contenders for the crown.
Best: Oh, Hi Roku
Yes, dear readers, it’s the inevitable return of the great Roku Inc. (Nasdaq: ROKU) hype.
My leading recommendation for anyone looking to profit from the online streaming revolution is trading down today … and that’s great news. It means that, once again, you have an opportunity to add to your holdings — or buy in fresh.
Why is Roku down?
The company announced this morning that Chief Financial Officer Steve Louden plans to step down. Steve was the guy who helped Roku transition from a private company into a publicly traded one. He was key in that transition, but it’s time to move on. And Roku will be just fine.
Still, ROKU shares are down about 2% following the news. They were down more than 4% in premarket trading, but investors began snapping up the shares at their lows on the open.
As you may have noticed, Roku is a bit of a volatile momentum stock. It moves rapidly on any bit of news — negative or positive. This is par for the course when investors get nervous about companies with Roku’s kind of momentum. It also provides you with ample opportunity for profit.
No other company has the same profit potential in the streaming market as Roku. Its devices are streaming-service agnostic, affordable and easy to use. But Roku’s real revenue driver is leveraging its massive user base for ad dollars.
That’s why I believe the stock will go to $200 next year. That’s a nearly 50% upside from current levels, and that’s why Roku is today’s Great Stuff “best.”
The top 1 percent of hermit crabs owned only about 3 percent of the total shell weight, Dr. Chase and his co-authors noted: “There are no Warren Buffetts or Jeff Bezoses.”
— Elizabeth Preston, The New York Times.
Today’s Great Stuff quote of the week comes from a study by Dr. Ivan Chase on wealth inequality and — I’m not making this up — hermit crabs. Apparently, bigger crabs hoard bigger shells … or something like that.
I’m imagining a crab swimming in a vault of large shells like Scrooge McDuck. Sounds painful.
According to Dr. Chase, hermit crabs might be one of the only animals to experience wealth inequality. However, he’s not ready to make any direct assumptions just yet.
Wealth inequality and hermit crabs? And I thought I’d heard everything.
At least now we know why Mr. Krabs in SpongeBob SquarePants was always so on edge.
Great Stuff: Yoo-Hoo! I’ll Make You Famous
Are you ready, kids? (Aye aye, captain!)
It’s that time again.
No, it’s not time to bathe with you in the sea. (There are a surprising number of Savage Garden fans reading Great Stuff, by the way.)
You have two days to drop me a line at [email protected] to make this week’s edition of Reader Feedback.
We take all kinds here: comments, questions, witty remarks and holiday recipes. As always, no cursing, please. We can’t publish that s#&%.
I’ll get the ball rolling for you:
What’s your “bull case” for the market in 2020? Where will the S&P 500 finish?
What’s your favorite streaming stock? And why is it Roku?
Which streaming service do you think will dethrone Netflix?
What if we built a large wooden badger?
Wise men say only fools rush in. But I can’t help looking forward to your comments and questions.
In the meantime, don’t forget to check out Great Stuff on social media. If you can’t get enough meme-y trade war goodness, follow me on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram!
Until next time, good trading!
Regards,
Joseph Hargett
Great Stuff Managing Editor, Banyan Hill Publishing
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Go Bull or Go Broke
Now that we have some semblance of a trade deal with China — or an anti-tariff deal, as I like to call it — we can truly focus on the case for a bull market in 2020.
Yes, Great Stuff — your occasional harbinger of market doom — is looking at bull market scenarios for next year. Honestly, the only thing holding me (and the U.S. economy) back was tariffs on the second-largest economy in the world. That’s China, for those following along.
So, unless President Trump ramps up the tariff talk when “phase 2” negotiations with China begin, I predict a steady grind higher next year. (I’m still keeping the Great Stuff Trade War Cycle chart handy in my back pocket … you know, just in case.)
Yesterday, I linked to a slew of Banyan Hill experts and their predictions for 2020. If you haven’t already, click here to check them out. Today, we’re turning to headline news from Barron’s and a prediction that 2020 will only be half as good as 2019.
According to analysts at Piper Jaffray, the S&P 500 Index will hit 3,600 next year. From yesterday’s close, that’s a gain of about 13%. So far this year, the benchmark index is up a whopping 27%. About 10% of 2019’s gains have come since the beginning of October, when Chinese trade optimism was finally rewarded.
Laying the groundwork for its bull market case, Piper cites continued support from the Federal Reserve and the 2020 election.
Starting with the Fed, Piper believes that interest rate hikes will be on hold for quite a while. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the bar for a rate hike is pretty high. This is good news for Wall Street’s love of easy money. It’s also great news for the housing market, which posted a bigger-than-expected rise today in the wake of the Fed’s two rate cuts this year.
As for the 2020 election, Piper cites historical market data for its bull case. During election years with a sitting Republican president, the S&P 500 has gained 10.3% and finished in the green 75% of the time.
The Takeaway:
The Barron’s article was a bit downbeat on the bull market case. The headline, “Next Year’s Stock Market’s Gains Will Only Be Half as Good as 2019’s,” was a dead giveaway.
What I think many perennial bulls are missing, however, is just how bad the situation could’ve been (or could still be) without tariff relief. The jobs market is strong, but more expensive consumer goods still could put a strain on the American consumer. After all, most of those jobs are lower-paying, part-time positions.
Weakness in manufacturing was a real concern, and tariffs were doing nothing to improve the situation. And the agriculture market? Well … let’s hope China buying billions in U.S. farm goods comes soon enough for American farmers.
The phase 1 tariff relief bolsters all of these sectors and more. Even tech and semiconductor firms are looking pretty right now, with supply-chain worries now easing.
The bottom line is that we’re entering the 11th year of the longest bull market in history. What goes up must come down. A correction will come … eventually. But with help from a steady hand at the Fed, Trump’s phase 1 trade deal with China should help delay or mitigate the worst of what must eventually come.
For now, the bull market party rages on … albeit with a little less oomph next year.
Good: The Halo Effect
It’s looking like analyst predictions for better-than-expected Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) iPhone 11 sales are holding true.
Jabil Inc. (NYSE: JBL), which makes iPhone cases and other Apple products, is experiencing quite the halo effect. The company reported considerably better-than-expected first-quarter earnings. The company beat expectations by $0.09 per share, with revenue topping by more than $500 million. Earnings were up 17% year over year, while sales jumped 15%.
The company also boosted guidance for the current quarter, setting expectations for earnings of $0.72 per share on sales of $6.35 billion. Wall Street currently expects earnings of $0.69 per share and $6.18 billion in revenue.
While Jabil is looking to diversify away from reliance on Apple products, the company still gets about 22% of its total revenue from the iPhone-maker.
Better: Mr. Worldwide
There’s been quite a lot of talk about competition in the streaming market this year. The Walt Disney Co.’s (NYSE: DIS) Disney+ is not only a major contender for the top spot, but it also spawned the meme of the year with baby Yoda. AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) may finally get its act together with HBO Max. Comcast Corp. (Nasdaq: CMCSA) is launching “Peacock,” and ViacomCBS Inc.’s (NYSE: CBS) Pluto TV will be a force to be reckoned with.
But none of these companies — and that includes Amzon.com Inc.’s (Nasdaq: AMZN) Prime Video — even come close to the market edge that Netflix Inc. (Nasdaq: NFLX) just revealed. That edge: 90 million overseas subscribers.
Netflix just released subscriber numbers ahead of next month’s quarterly earnings report, and the figures are astounding. The streaming giant has 158.3 million subscribers globally, with 60 million in the U.S. and Canada and … again … 90 million overseas.
So, yes, competition is rising in the streaming market. Yes, growth is slow for Netflix in the crowded U.S. market. But … the company is still growing by leaps and bounds internationally. This growth outside the U.S. should give the company more time (and cash) to compete with this year’s growing crop of upstart contenders for the crown.
Best: Oh, Hi Roku
Yes, dear readers, it’s the inevitable return of the great Roku Inc. (Nasdaq: ROKU) hype.
My leading recommendation for anyone looking to profit from the online streaming revolution is trading down today … and that’s great news. It means that, once again, you have an opportunity to add to your holdings — or buy in fresh.
Why is Roku down?
The company announced this morning that Chief Financial Officer Steve Louden plans to step down. Steve was the guy who helped Roku transition from a private company into a publicly traded one. He was key in that transition, but it’s time to move on. And Roku will be just fine.
Still, ROKU shares are down about 2% following the news. They were down more than 4% in premarket trading, but investors began snapping up the shares at their lows on the open.
As you may have noticed, Roku is a bit of a volatile momentum stock. It moves rapidly on any bit of news — negative or positive. This is par for the course when investors get nervous about companies with Roku’s kind of momentum. It also provides you with ample opportunity for profit.
No other company has the same profit potential in the streaming market as Roku. Its devices are streaming-service agnostic, affordable and easy to use. But Roku’s real revenue driver is leveraging its massive user base for ad dollars.
That’s why I believe the stock will go to $200 next year. That’s a nearly 50% upside from current levels, and that’s why Roku is today’s Great Stuff “best.”
The top 1 percent of hermit crabs owned only about 3 percent of the total shell weight, Dr. Chase and his co-authors noted: “There are no Warren Buffetts or Jeff Bezoses.”
— Elizabeth Preston, The New York Times.
Today’s Great Stuff quote of the week comes from a study by Dr. Ivan Chase on wealth inequality and — I’m not making this up — hermit crabs. Apparently, bigger crabs hoard bigger shells … or something like that.
I’m imagining a crab swimming in a vault of large shells like Scrooge McDuck. Sounds painful.
According to Dr. Chase, hermit crabs might be one of the only animals to experience wealth inequality. However, he’s not ready to make any direct assumptions just yet.
Wealth inequality and hermit crabs? And I thought I’d heard everything.
At least now we know why Mr. Krabs in SpongeBob SquarePants was always so on edge.
Great Stuff: Yoo-Hoo! I’ll Make You Famous
Are you ready, kids? (Aye aye, captain!)
It’s that time again.
No, it’s not time to bathe with you in the sea. (There are a surprising number of Savage Garden fans reading Great Stuff, by the way.)
You have two days to drop me a line at [email protected] to make this week’s edition of Reader Feedback.
We take all kinds here: comments, questions, witty remarks and holiday recipes. As always, no cursing, please. We can’t publish that s#&%.
I’ll get the ball rolling for you:
What’s your “bull case” for the market in 2020? Where will the S&P 500 finish?
What’s your favorite streaming stock? And why is it Roku?
Which streaming service do you think will dethrone Netflix?
What if we built a large wooden badger?
Wise men say only fools rush in. But I can’t help looking forward to your comments and questions.
In the meantime, don’t forget to check out Great Stuff on social media. If you can’t get enough meme-y trade war goodness, follow me on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram!
Until next time, good trading!
Regards,
Joseph Hargett
Great Stuff Managing Editor, Banyan Hill Publishing
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