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[holdmeclosertonydanzaffl]

Week 12 + 13: I hate fantasy and I hate all of you.

The Commish is back from his hiatus. I was planning on having a writeup for Week 12. However, when I returned from vacation, I found two weeks worth of work needing to get done in two and a half days, because the people who manage me are useless and incompetent and dipshits. Then I was going to do it over the long weekend, but I instead just went on living my life. Anyway, we’re here now and that’s all that matters.

I hope everyone had a lovely Thanksgiving weekend, filled with great food, great people, and great pie – especially pie. Luckily mine was. I needed some sort of comfort while I watched the Cowboys/Redskins game in anguish. Apple, lemon-chocolate, pumpkin, cherry…all consoled me while Fat Rob’s futility and the Dallas secondary forgetting to cover Desean Jackson rang the death knell for my 2016.

I’ve gone 1-6 over the last 7 weeks and with the season on the line, my shitbag team came through with a will-to-live-destroying 78 points. If that wasn’t bad enough, I lost to my two archrivals, Rick Southard and Mark Ingram. DAMMIT. Fuck you, Mark Ingram! I guess I’ll just continue sad-walking around Danzaville for one more week. 

We’ve come to the ultimate week of the regular season, and there’s plenty hanging in the balance for half the league. Excitement builds. Let’s take a gander around:

Those with nothing of substance at stake:

Goose – It’s like he finally graduated into being a real fantasy player. 

Goose is all but locked into the 1-seed. Yahoo for Goose. So proud.

Scotty Bagels – Scrotes has a bye secured, and his worst-case scenario is falling into third place, which doesn’t actually make a difference.

The Rick – The Rick will look to continue his role as the playoff spoiler. He’s won 3 straight, essentially put the nail in my season’s coffin, and can do the same for the Over Achiever’s inspirational and aspirational playoff bid.

Jonny Poogan – Hey, better late than never? Roggles, similarly to The Rick, suffered through a lost season, but has won two straight. He can potentially fuck up Dan’s world by making it three in a row.

Those with something at stake:

Sampel – Despite writing himself off following last week’s loss, Sam has a decent chance of wrastling the final playoff spot away from those in contention. He’s gotta win, Beave and Dan have to lose, and he’s gotta cover a 14 point differential. That shit is very much in play.

Paul – Technically speaking, I have a modicum of a chance to sneaking into the 5-seed. But it’s not sneaking so much as it’s a covert ops mission. I’d put the odds at 0.3%*. First I need to win, which is already asking a lot. Sam, Beave, and Dan would all have to lose. AND I need to outscore Dan by 67 points. Waaaaiiiittttt a minute…Am I crazy or could this actually happen?!?!?! Oh yeah that’s right, my team sucks. Nevermind.

*Okay full disclosure, I got excited once I started thinking about this. So I wanted to figure out the actual odds of me pulling it off. Here’s my breakdown: just using the dual-outcome model of binomial distribution for the 4 matchups (without factoring in projections), gets me to 6.25%. Then I (perhaps generously) estimated a 1 in 25 chance of outscoring Dan by 67. So 6.25% x 4% equalsssssss… 0.25%. Fuck. But wow. My original odds, which were meant to be outlandish, were pretty much EXACTLY right. I’m no longer excited, but I am convinced I’m a genius.

Those with EVERYTHING at stake:

Roberto – Rob’s spot in the postseason and title as points leader are secure. This much I know.  But a titular matchup with Matt will determine a bye week or getting sent to the thunderdome.

Mathias – Matty Babes is the biggest swinger of the bunch... Hold on there’s gotta be a better way to say that… Matt can go either way… Hmmm. I think you know what I’m trying to say. If Matt wins, he penetrates the soft, cushy walls of the bye-week quorum. A loss would send him to Wild Wild Card Weekend, or possibly (albeit unlikely), careening out of the playoffs altogether.

Dan – Danny Boy Watnick, the resident neurotic crackhead of Danzaville, is currently holding court in the 5-spot. Win and he’s in. He falls out with a loss and a Beave win. Or any of the increasingly-improbable scenarios outlined in the section above.

Beeftits – The Beave can weasel his way into the playoffs with a W and Roggen winning the Hebrew Hammer battle. It would be true-to-brand if the Over Achievers somehow make the playoffs with the lowest point total in the league.

TO THE LINES!

The Commish at The Goose  -9

0.3% BABY! YEAAHHH!

Sam at Scooter  -5.5

Rickles at Beavis  +1.5

Dan at Roggen  -3.5

Hebrew. Hammer.

GAME OF THE WEEK

Big Shot Rob at Thewy Lewis  +6

So much rides on this matchup. It only adds to it that they absolutely hate each other.

**wait, they don’t hate each other?**

YEAH…they HATE each other. IT’S ROB. IT’S MATT. IT’S THE GAME OF THE WEEK.