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gyrlversion · 6 years ago

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What happens if May wins her vote?

Theresa May is gambling on a third vote on her deal today, with Britain facing more chaos and a possible snap general election within weeks if she loses.

If she wins, Britain will be on course to leave the EU on May 22 and the PM has told MPs today is their last chance to lock in an orderly Brexit.

The EU said she must win approval on her deal by midnight to ‘book’ May 22 as Brexit day, is she misses the deadline Brexit day is reset to April 12.

But if she loses MPs are also preparing to force a soft Brexit and long delay to leaving the EU upon May next week.

No 10 has threatened to call a general election rather than be forced into a soft Brexit – but looming over that threat is a new forecast of what might happen in a snap election by polling expert Sir John Curtice.

But Sir John’s latest numbers suggest a near identical Commons would be returned – accept with slightly weaker Tory and Labour parties in a more hung parliament.

The figures suggest even the dramatic step of a new general election would do little to break the stalemate.

The PM hopes this bleak outlook will persuade Labour MPs to back it as the party has accepted the divorce deal – but she is set to be disappointed. She needs 75 more votes than she got on March 12 to win.

With mounting questions this is MailOnline’s guide to what might happen next:

Sir John Curitce’s latest numbers suggest a near identical Commons would be returned – accept with slightly weaker Tory and Labour parties in a more hung parliament

Attorney General Geoffrey Cox opened today’s debate with Prime Minister Theresa May looking on behind him

What is happening today?

Theresa May is gambling on a third vote on her deal but without the political declaration on what the future UK-EU relationship might look like. It is not a vote to ratify the deal – something that she has lost twice by a landslide – but is intended to keep alive Brexit on May 22.

This is because EU leaders last week said May 22 could happen if the withdrawal agreement – the legally binding divorce treaty – had to be agreed by MPs by today for that date to stand.

MPs will vote at 2.30pm today. The Government is hoping the symbolism of holding a vote on March 29, which was supposed to be exit day, and the threat of losing exit on May 22 is enough to swing votes.

What would losing today mean?

At last week’s EU Council, Brussels said if the deal passed Brexit could happen on May 22. If it doesn’t, Britain is on track for No Deal on April 12.

Before that happens, an emergency summit will almost certainly be called. Britain can use this to ask for a longer delay to Brexit – perhaps to the end of the year or even longer.

Mrs May has told MPs a long delay will mean holding European Parliament elections on May 22.

What happens if she wins?

The Government says it locks in the possibility of Brexit on May 22, subject to the deal being properly ratified . Crucially today’s vote is not a full-blown ‘meaningful vote’ meaning there still has to be an approval vote as well as agreement of the laws needed to implement the deal.

This almost certainly means new negotiations with the EU about the political declaration on what the future UK-EU relationship should look like – the document that is not being voted on today.

What does she need to win?

After losing by 149 in the second meaningful vote on March 12, Mrs May needs 75 extra votes.

If the DUP vote No as they have said, she needs every Tory rebel to return or win over Labour MPs instead. More than 50 Tories are still declared against – suggesting defeat up of up to 100 votes.

What happened in the lead up to the debate?

On Wednesday night, Prime Minister Theresa May promised her party she will resign if her deal passes so a Brexiteer can try to win No 10 before UK-EU trade talks start.

In the Commons, rebel MPs seized the agenda to stage indicative votes on Brexit alternatives. All eight proposals were defeated on Wednesdayt.

If the deal fails, will May go for a long extension or No Deal?

Nobody knows for certain. The Prime Minister has publicly ruled out personally going for a long extension but also admitted Parliament will rule out No Deal.

Will May resign if her deal fails again?

Again, nobody knows for sure. Wednesday night’s announcement was contingent on the deal passing.

In practice, is drained Mrs May of all remaining political capital. Most in Westminster think her Premiership is over within weeks at the latest.

What is clear is there is already a fight underway for the Tory leadership.

Polls since the 2017 general election show the two main parties tied close together – suggesting a similar result to last time is very likely

Will Parliament hold more votes on alternatives?

Probably. Despite rejecting eight plans on Wednesday, rebel MPs already have control of the agenda on Monday and plan to hold more votes on the best supported options.

In the first round, these were a second referendum and a permanent UK-EU customs union.

There has been discussion of forcing a majority by tearing up Commons rules to create some kind of alternative vote division – but this has never been done and MPs would have to vote to allow it to happen at all.

Does is all mean there will be an election?

Probably, at some point. The Commons is deadlocked and the Government has no functional majority. While the Fixed Term Parliaments Act means the Government can stumble on, it will become increasingly powerless.

Would May lead the Tories into an early election?

Unlikely. Having admitted to her party she would go if the deal passes, Mrs May’s political career is doomed.

While there is no procedural way to remove her, a withdrawal of political support from the Cabinet or Tory HQ would probably finish her even if she wanted to stay.

How is an election called? When would it be?

Because of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act passed by the coalition, the Prime Minister can no longer simply ask the Queen to dissolve the Commons and call an election. There are two procedures instead.

First – and this is what happened in 2017 – the Government can table a motion in the Commons calling for an early election. Crucially, this can only pass with a two-thirds majority of MPs – meaning either of the main parties can block it.

Second an election is called if the Government loses a vote of no confidence and no new administration can be built within 14 days.

In practice, this is can only happen if Tory rebels vote with Mr Corbyn – a move that would end the career of any Conservative MP who took the step.

An election takes a bare minimum of five weeks from start to finish and it would take a week or two to get to the shut down of Parliament, known as dissolution – putting the earliest possible polling day around mid to late May.

If the Tories hold a leadership election first it probably pushes any election out to late June at the earliest.

Why do people say there has to be an election?

The question of whether to call an election finally reached the Cabinet this week.

Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay warned the rejection of Mrs May’s deal would set in train a series of events that will lead to a softer Brexit – meaning an election because so many MPs will have to break manifesto promises.

Last night’s Commons vote to seize control of Brexit from ministers will only fuel the demands.

Labour has been calling for a new vote for months, insisting the Government has failed to deliver Brexit.

Mr Corbyn called a vote of no confidence in the Government in January insisting the failure of the first meaningful vote showed Mrs May’s administration was doomed. He lost but the calls did not go away.

Brexiteers have joined the demands in recent days as Parliament wrestles with Brexit and amid fears among hardliners promises made by both main parties at the last election will be broken – specifically on leaving the Customs Union and Single Market.

Tory MP Andrew Bridgen wants Mrs May replaced with a Brexiteer. He believes it would push Remain Tories out of the party and then allow a snap election with more Eurosceptic candidates wearing blue rosettes.

At the same time people’s views on whether Brexit is a good idea have not dramatically shifted. Remain has generally been narrowly ahead

What might happen?

Both main parties will have to write a manifesto – including a position on Brexit. Both parties are deeply split – in many cases between individual MPs and their local activists.

Under Mrs May, the Tories presumably try to start with the deal. But it is loathed by dozens of current Tory MPs who want a harder Brexit and hated even more by grassroots Tory members.

Shifting Tory policy on Brexit to the right would alienate the majority of current MPs who voted to Remain.

Labour has similar splits. Many of Labour’s MPs and activists want Mr Corbyn to commit to putting Brexit to a second referendum – most with a view to cancelling it.

Mr Corbyn is a veteran Eurosceptic and millions of people who voted Leave in 2016 backed Labour in 2017.

The splits set the stage for a bitter and chaotic election. The outcome is highly unpredictable – the Tories start in front but are probably more divided on the main question facing the country.

Labour is behind but knows it made dramatic gains in the polls in the last election with its promises of vastly higher public spending.

Neither side can forecast what impact new political forces might wield over the election or how any public anger over the Brexit stalemate could play out.

It could swing the result in favour of one of the main parties or a new force.

Or an election campaign that takes months, costs millions of pounds could still end up in a hung Parliament and continued stalemate. This is the current forecast by polling expert Sir John Curtice.

The post What happens if May wins her vote? appeared first on Gyrlversion.

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auburnfamilynews · 6 years ago

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It was the year of high expectations. Auburn started out highly ranked but after out of conference play, the Tigers looked less and less like a contender and more like a pretender.

That paragraph could be applied to two different Auburn teams this year. While failing to meet expectations is something very familiar to Auburn football fans, it is a new occurrence to Auburn basketball fans. As many old-school Auburn basketball followers will tell you, simply having expectations for the Tigers is something new, which has softened the blow for the slide back to center for the Auburn basketball fan.

Regardless of the raging commentary between two sides of Auburn basketball fans, the fact remains that this team is struggling mightily. Judging these young men is a tough thing to do and should be done with the understanding that they are young men. And while the aim isn’t to be tough on these Auburn men, some serious introspection should be done.

To avoid being a season of disappointment, Auburn would have to put together great post-season play. A month ago, that was understood. Now, Auburn is in serious contention to not even make the Big Dance and give them a shot at redeeming what has so far been a disappointing season.

Yes, the Tigers are still firmly in the mix thanks to an SEC conference that is playing really good ball. Yes, losing Wednesady to Ole Miss in and of itself shouldn’t be the sole reason to slap the panic button, as disgusting of a game as it was. Fans are quick to look at single games as a judgment on an entire season. Wednesdayt’s performance was the game where the single loss caused a lot of fans to start questioning the entirety of the season.

Auburn is winless against current ranked teams. The Tigers have now lost two games at home, a place they simply do not lose. They are below .500 in conference with Kentucky and Tennessee looming. And Wednesday night Auburn scored a new low with just 26 first half points at home. A very telling, non-statistic yet important aspect of Auburn’s success were the lack of support in last night’s game. Fans simply did not show up. Statistically, neither did Auburn’s shooting.

Credit Ole Miss for coming to Auburn Arena and shooting the clutch shots that it needed to turn the lights out on Auburn. Statistically, they weren’t great from long range, hitting under 40 percent. It was how they did it. At one point, Ole Miss hit four triples with one second left on the shot clock. A fifth time, they missed the shot, got the rebound and ran the shot clock down before missing another shot and getting yet another rebound, putting Auburn’s squad on defense for over a minute. As talented as Auburn is, as suffocating as they can be in situations, one maddening fact about this squad is the ability to make heroes out of their opponents. It defies statistics. Only Auburn could play flawless defense over and over and still play into their opponents hands.

Regardless of the defense it was the shooting and turnovers that buried Auburn. Auburn hit only 25 percent of their attempts from beyond the arc with Chuma Okeke hitting more of them than guards Bryce Brown and Jared Harper combined. The two guards were 2-20 combining for just 18 points. Okeke did his best to keep Auburn in the game scoring 23 points nearly half of Auburn’s paltry 55 points.

Just weeks ago, Auburn’s losses were easy to accept by pointing to aberrations: bad shooting here, poor rebounding there. However, over the last month one thing is painfully obvious; Jared Harper is having his worst year wearing orange and blue. And that isn’t even up for debate. Harper added six turnovers Wednesday night. Three of them were simply head scratching, such as a failed alley-oop or dribbling into the lane with three defenders waiting. His turnovers per game have crept up each year from 1.5 to 2.1, to a 2.5 mark this year. While 2.5 don’t sound like a lot, it’s been the rate in SEC play that is simply scary. Harper had only three games with four or more turnovers in his first two years. He has six this year with back-to-back games of five and six, respectively.

Auburn’s high hopes for the season were boosted mostly by the return of Austin Wiley and Daniel Purifoy. Yet neither have been a factor, and it is simply baffling. Auburn was 12-1 to start the season and in those games, Wiley had double-digit points in eight. That corresponds to the start of SEC play where Wiley has yet to score double digits.

It doesn’t help that Wiley battled a lower body injury that kept him out of several games. But the truth is Wiley hasn’t played to the level that he was sold to fans as a top draft pick coming out of high school. As of Wednesday night, many fans on social media started using the term “soft” when it came to talking about the big man. His biggest problem, outside of being able to rebound against men the same size or larger is how he catches the ball on the block but finishes falling away from the basket – something a dominating player would never do.

In addition Daniel Purifoy hasn’t scored more than eight points and while he is starting to show up, he still hasn’t eclipsed the play fans saw from him as a freshman.

It may not be time to hit the panic button but Auburn has a long row to hoe to prevent a disappointing season. They start to work on that redemption Saturday at 11AM against Vandy in Nashville.

The post Is it Panic Button Time for Auburn Basketball? appeared first on Track 'Em Tigers, Auburn's oldest and most read independent blog.

from Track 'Em Tigers, Auburn's oldest and most read independent blog http://trackemtigers.com/is-it-panic-button-time-for-auburn-basketball/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=is-it-panic-button-time-for-auburn-basketball

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