#weather in Belize

[global-weather]

17:43 CST Belmopan, Belize

☁️

Humidity: 79% Temperature: 31°C / 89°F Max. Elevation: 70m (230ft)

[newsbites]

News from Belize

The Christian Workers Union and the Port of Belize are back at the negotiating table to discuss the CWU's "one gang, one ship" demand for sugar ship systems.

2. Self-proclaimed activist and businessman, Yhony Rosado, says he is taking the government to court after his name was allegedly slandered by the Commissioner of Police over his ownership of a VW Atlas. The police claim the vehicle is stolen. Rosado says the car was sold to him, after being driven down from the US, with all the necessary and proper paperwork.

3. Rural communities are struggling with water supply, from Toledo to the North to the West.

4. The Ministry of Health and Wellness has honoured nurses for their service

[amnhnyc]

Is this amphibian a visitor from outer space? 🛸 Nope… it’s the Yucatan casque-headed tree frog (Triprion petasatus), a species that can be found in parts of Mexico, Belize, and Guatemala. How does it put its head to use? When the weather is dry, this frog has been observed nestling into tree holes. It plugs the opening with its hard head, using it as a barrier against the outside world. This is thought to help the frog retain extra moisture in its skin!

Photo: marcoalp, CC BY-NC 4.0, iNaturalist

[bigskydreaming]

Like yes merpeople but ALSO what about merpeople who are specifically half-shark, or the underwater equivalent of giants, half-human/half-whale? We've got the occasional half-human/half-octopus but also yes to half human jellyfish and half human manta rays and not naiads specifically so much as the underwater equivalent of dryads, having the same connection to coral gardens and reefs that dryads do to trees and forests.

Gimme underwater lamias who are actually more accurately half human/half electric eel, with all the associated zapping ability, that lends them insight into electricity and related phenomena they use to build high-tech wonderlands deep beneath the waves.....and far from any shore, underwater travelers fear crossing paths with 'ghosts' which are actually like a supernatural form of jellyfish who wrap their translucent selves around their victims to "possess them."

I want selkies who don't just come ashore to have angsty love affairs with beguiling humans, but who also live in communities deep in arctic regions far away from any human civilization where they carve entire villages and cities into the undersides of icebergs.

Underwater vampiric creatures, maybe lamprey or shark themed, who specifically drink blood for the oxygen in it, as that's what enables them to go 'top side' for awhile before having to retreat back to the depths they're more naturally adapted to live in. Krakens but also a Fae-like version of angler fish who use their lights as an undersea version of will'o'wisps, leading denizens of the deep astray.

Multiple types of undersea shapeshifters, going to and from the surface and the deep, with entirely different branches of the same shapeshifter family trees.....the dolphin shapeshifters of the Mediterranean being descendants of the sailors cursed by Dionysus and having very little in common with the encantado who live in the waters of South America, but often lumped in with each other and sharing similar issues and interactions with other civilizations due to the fact that so many others just assume all dolphin shapeshifters are connected or alike even though they have completely different natures, parameters for their shapeshifting, and an entire spectrum of supernatural abilities with very little actual overlap between the different 'types.'

Not just one god of the sea, but multiple gods of the deep, all associated with their own regions, from Poseidon to Sedna to Tangaroa to Manannán mac Lir and Kimbazi. The deep sea equivalent of druids, cultivating kelp forests and coral groves and gardens warmed and nourished by the undersea volcanoes they're planted in the shadows of. Sorcerers as fixated on trying to control and harness and direct the power and positioning of underwater currents as above-the-sea counterparts are with trying to control the weather.

Narwhales often mistaken for the unicorns of the deep, but only because there actually ARE an undersea version of unicorns for them to get mixed up WITH. Protective amulets and talismans and charms made of sea shells, alchemical potions mixed from octopus ink and kraken blood and marine sinkholes like the Great Blue Hole off the coast of Belize being the undersea equivalent of fairy rings, serving as entrances to a subaquatic Otherworld or Underworld.

The rivers of various pantheons' Underworlds having exit points at multiple places around the world, so there are entire regions considered haunted or places of wild magic because they're where the waters of the Styx or Acheron slip out and get mixed into the ocean, altering the properties of the water in those regions in strange and unpredictable ways.

Deep sea mages using and manipulating pressure in ways there's no above-water equivalent for because on land its not really a natural phenomenon of note or a force of nature all its own, not in the same ways it would be for those who live their entire lives and build cities at depths where the water around them has a weight and power that the air just does not possess for those who do the same at sea level.

A spectrum of sirens, different types and different cultures all with their own unique distinctions....as much as some are associated with seduction, there are other clans with reputations as scavengers, known for sending hunting parties to the surface where they sing down storms to scuttle ships and drag them and their contents down to the depths.

An entire world where there's always a lower depth, a darker chasm, a further mystery just below.....the deepest abysses an uncharted badlands populated by eldritch creatures older than anything else in the world, a pitch dark landscape dotted with the ruins of empires so old nobody remembers they ever existed, let alone what they were called.

Idk, idk, I just think there's so much more to be mined from the sheer wealth of sea creatures and concepts and phenomena and traditional mermaids and selkies and sirens, cool as they are, are really just the tip of the iceberg. And we have gotten a couple cool glimpses of undersea civilizations and how wild and colorful they can be in the last decade or so in cinema, but again....tip of the iceberg. There's soooooo much more that can be done, I'm just like. *vibrates in place wanting it all*

[alatmosphericcenter]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

200 PM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Northwest Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of showers and thunderstorms continue in association

with a broad area of low pressure interacting with a weak frontal

boundary located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Upper-level

winds are expected to become less conducive for development by late

Friday and Saturday as another frontal boundary approaches the

system. Although development is unlikely, heavy rainfall is

expected across portions of the northern Gulf Coast during the next

day or so. Additional information on this system can be found in

products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast

Office.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

2. Northwestern Atlantic (AL99):

Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized in

association with a non-tropical area of low pressure located a few

hundred miles east of North Carolina, and recent satellite data

indicates the system is producing winds to near gale-force. This

system could acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics

over the next day or two while it moves generally

north-northeastward, remaining offshore of the northeastern United

States. Once the low moves over cooler waters by early Saturday,

further development is not expected. Additional information on this

system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts

issued by the National Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:

An elongated trough of low pressure over the eastern tropical

Atlantic is producing limited shower activity. Development is not

expected through this weekend while the system moves little. Some

slow development appears possible early next week when the

disturbance begins moving slowly northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

4. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized in

association with a westward-moving tropical wave located over the

western Caribbean Sea. Development is not expected before the

system reaches Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula by early Friday.

Some gradual development is possible late in the weekend into early

next week after the system emerges over the southwestern Gulf of

Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

5. Central Tropical Atlantic:

Another tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the

Leeward Islands is producing limited shower and thunderstorm

activity. Strong upper-level winds are expected to inhibit

development of this system during the next few days while it moves

west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. By early next week,

environmental conditions could become more conducive for some slow

development while the system moves over the southwestern Atlantic

Ocean.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

High Seas Forecasts are issued by the National Weather Service

under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online

at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Hagen/Delgado

[kp777]

By Jon Queally

Common Dreams

July 1, 2024

"The climate crisis is here. This is an emergency. Politicians need to start acting like it."

Meteorologists, climate campaigners, and extreme weather experts expressed shock and horror Sunday as Hurricane Beryl exploded into an "extremely dangerous" Category 4 storm as it headed into the warm waters of the southern Caribbean with a level of intensification characterized as unprecedented.

The National Hurricane Center on Sunday morning called it a "very dangerous situation" due to "potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds, a life-threatening storm surge, and damaging waves" for the numerous mainland and island nations in Beryl's path.

According to the NHC, the Windward Islands of St. Vincent, the Grenadines, and Granada will be the first at highest risk from the storm as well as St. Lucia and Barbados. People on those islands and elsewhere in the region were told that all preparations for the storm "should be rushed to completion" without delay.

Weather Underground reports that subsequent locations that may face Beryl's wrath later this week could be Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, though noted "there's uncertainty in that exact track" of the hurricane as detailed in the following graphic:

Possible storm tracks for Hurricane Beryl. (Source: Weather Underground / wunderground.com)

Citing records going back to 1851, the Washington Post reported Sunday that there "is no precedent for a storm to intensify this quickly, nor reach this strength, in this part of the ocean during the month of June."

Eric Blake, a hurricane expert, said that Beryl on Sunday was "rewriting the history books in all the wrong ways," as he urged people in its path to "be very safe and take this hurricane seriously" as "very few will have experienced a hurricane this strong" on those islands.

"This is unreal," said Nahel Belgherze, a journalist focused on extreme weather. "Hurricane Beryl continues to defy all known logic, now becoming the first June Category 4 hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic Basin. I can't even stress enough just how completely absurd that storm is."

"The climate crisis is here," said the Sunrise Movement in a social media post showing the extreme power and historic nature of Hurricane Beryl. "This is an emergency. Politicians need to start acting like it."

The group took the opportunity to re-share its petition calling on President Joe Biden to "declare a climate emergency" as a way to unlock federal funds and escalate the government's response to the crisis of fossil fuels that are the main driving of surging global temperatures.

In May, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted that the 2024 hurricane season—which officially runs from June 1 to the end of November—would be "extraordinary" and "above-normal," largely due to rising ocean temperatures attributable to human-caused global warming couple with La Niña conditions.

[spayki]

Beautiful Herd of Horses Running Free!            The icy Yukon Highlands, the verdant forests of Belize, the snow-capped peaks of the Rocky Mountains, and the barren deserts of the American Southwest are regions where the brutal law of natural selection is at work. The hostile weather and extremely difficult terrain mean that only the strongest and smartest creatures will survive in these places in the world

[rhys-ravenfeather]

Anyway, a little more on climate change, from the perspective of someone who spent most of her life outside the United States.

I mentioned in another post that I grew up in the tropics, and spent most of my life absolutely HATING it, and wishing that I was living in the states. My brother is the opposite of me in that regard...he's always been happy in Belize and has no plans of leaving.

As such, whenever I complain about the weather when we chat on Skype, he says, kind of smugly, 'Well, you're the one who wanted four seasons!'

Yes. Yes I did.

I did want four seasons, my whole life in the tropics, and that hasn't changed.

I did, and STILL want, four seasons, not just the monotonous 'wet' and 'dry' I had in Belize.

But now that I'm finally living in a place where I can have four seasons, (as in, living living, not just going to school), climate change has messed things up so much that I don't even have a FULL four seasons anymore. At least, not in the way I would have liked.

I didn't have a snowy Christmas this last holiday season, like I would have wanted.

A couple of weeks after December we're FINALLY getting snow, but the temperature is so low now that I've been having to get rides to and from work because it's negative celsius out, and it is legitimately DANGEROUS to be outside for more than a few minutes.

So yes. I want four seasons.

I just wish that the climate hadn't messed things up, so I could actually ENJOY it.

[healthymarc]

February recap: started the month off hot by running and walking everyday while on vacation in Belize 😎. After that I fell off the map with cardio and switched to kettlebell flows 2-3x’s a week. I’m ready for warm weather runs on the east coast 😩, call it an indoor riding and running slump that I’ll soon shake. I’m still getting my steps it so that counts right? On a positive note, my doctor’s checkup went well and all my levels were good.

[spellucci]

Indiana Wants Me

Tuesday, October 10, 2023

We are big thinkers, we are. Continental scale, even.

We are headed across the continent to see an annular eclipse that, depending on the weather, may or may not be visible at our target destination, Piñon Mesa in Farmington, New Mexico.

An annular eclipse is when the disc of the moon blocks most, but not all of the Sun. The result is a "ring of fire."

When the left edge of the moon touches the left edge of the sun (or right touches right) it is possible to see Bailey's Beads. This is when the sun just barely shines between mountains on the moon, resulting in a sparkling effect sometimes called the "diamond ring."

The path of the eclipse goes from Oregon through Nevada, Utah, New Mexico, and Texas. And then almost straight down Central America before curving East across South America from Columbia through Brazil. Jeanne’s brother might see it in Belize. Thank you for coming to my TED talk.

We don't have the option to drive to Belize on this trip, so it's gonna hafta be either New Mexico or Texas, depending on the weather. We find a 7-day cloud cover forecast website (https://weatherstreet.com/states/u-s-cloud-cover-forecast.htm). Tim mutters about how imprecise the cloud cover forecast is for someplace half a continent away and six days hence. Actually, the Internet is a pretty impressive place to even have such information. We agree to keep an eye on it as we drive West, and not to decide until we get to Tim's nephew's house outside of Kansas City on Wednesday.

A note about I-70 through Indiana: it sucks. Ohio and Illinois have well-maintained roads. But in between, we entered Indiana with a bump, and the road surface stayed poor the whole way across the state. Jeanne had been leading a conference call. Her mouse started bouncing so badly she had to hand off the lead, and focus on the horizon to keep from getting carsick. And the horizon was filled with ugly billboards. Indiana, whatever you're selling, we ain't buying.

We stop for the night at an RV parking area for the Cumberland Covered bridge. It’s a long wooden covered bridge built in 2001. It won awards, but we have no idea why someone would build a covered bridge outside of New England tourist towns.

After dinner, we sit outside in the warm sun. A freight train thunders by barely visible through the trees. It’s unintentional, but there seems to be a theme developing about historic canals, historic roads and covered bridges, and the persistence of America’s freight train traffic.

[cxldblxxded]

k's timeline

( since he's been alive a reasonably long time )

1774 - k hatches with his sisters. life is good.

1798 - k is 24, merely a child by draconic standards. spain loses its control over belize's territory, with britain taking over as the major colonial power. they get lucky on the way out, finding k's colony, which they had been trying to locate for years. what follows is the massacre of, as far as k knows, every dragon he knows and loves. in a panic, he teleports for the first time, ending up in barcelona, spain in a cruel twist of fate. he hasn't seen another dragon since.

1812 - k is now 38, still a child. he wanders the streets of barcelona as an orphan, finding camaraderie with other youth he meets. they teach him spanish and accept him, although adults find him strange and think there's something deeply wrong with him. before they can do anything about it, barcelona is annexed by napoleonic france, and he teleports again, this time to hong kong.

1841 - k is now 67, and yes, still a child. he can't figure out how to change his hair color, which draws more attention than he would like it to. britain occupies hong kong and he shapechanges into a tiger shortly after, keeping his distance from human settlements and the violence that comes with them. he becomes something of a local myth as a golden tiger, and ironically attracts more attention to himself than if he had stayed a human.

1893 - k is now 119, almost the equivalent of a teenager. he's trapped by a british hunter, and teleports again in a panic. seemingly unable to escape british colonial forces, he winds up in melbourne, australia, and gives being a human a shot again. he picks up odd jobs here and there, moving whenever he inevitably gets fired. he garners little sympathy as an outsider, and, disillusioned with the mundane nature of human life and stationary living, teleports again after about 30 years, this time on purpose. k lives in a plane adjacent to the human realm (the prime) for the next 53 years. compared to the prime, it is peaceful, but during his explorations he discovers there are no other dragons (which devastates him, as he had hoped he would find others of his kind).

1946 - dejected and homesick, he returns from the plane, now 172. there's a lot of catching up to do, since apparently he missed two entire world wars while he was away. he takes up residence in guadalajara, mexico, soon finding work in the city's first industrial park and taking some classes at the university of guadalajara, which he enjoys, although he never graduates. these university records are the only records that exist of k outside of folktales. guadalajara is also the geographically closest to belize he ever gets. for a short period of time he is content, but nothing good can last, and he is forced to move after realizing he hasn't been aging by human standards for the past 15 years. he wanders north until the late 60s and eventually teleports somewhere completely different when he hits the rio grande.

1974 - k is now 200 years old and is more or less a young adult. after wandering around the soviet union for a while, he meets a girl on the outskirts of moscow. she finds his oddities attractive and they romance each other for two years. k reveals his draconic nature to her and, unable to accept this, she betrays him to the police. he fights back and suffers multiple gunshot wounds; he breathes fire and incinerates her house and everyone in it. severely wounded, he teleports randomly again to mount denali in alaska, and mourns.

1979 - after taking several years to fully recover, k wanders his way down the west coast to warmer weather in los angeles, california.

he's been roaming the us since then, barely staying in one location for more than a few years at a time. he's due for another teleport any day now, but frankly, he's a bit scared at where he might end up.

[fahimfoysal21]

Top 10 Places of Mystery

Open your mind to new travel experiences by trading your usual fun-in-the sun vacation for 1 of these strange phenomena, unexplainable events or mysterious murder locations. Crystal Skulls Southern Mexico and Central America Search ancient Mayan ruins throughout the jungles of southern Mexico and Central America for magical skulls. The legend claims that 13 crystal skulls, thought to be containers of great wisdom and mankind's destiny, were left behind by Mayan elders to be discovered by future generations. Five of the skulls have already been found -- 1 in Belize's Lost City of Lubaantun. Nazca Lines Nazca, Peru https://www.tumblr.com/fahimfoysal21 Fly over enormous land figures -- including a dog, a monkey and a 900-foot bird -- along the southern coast of Peru. Although the lines are believed to have been created by the Nazca Indians some 2,000 years ago, no one is certain why or how they managed to produce such massive, complex forms. Some believe aliens created them as landing strips for their spacecraft. Bermuda Triangle Atlantic Ocean Visit the 3 apexes -- Miami, San Juan and Bermuda -- of the infamous Bermuda Triangle. The triangle earned its deadly reputation due to the unexplained disappearances of 80 aircraft and 60 boats since 1975. Intense electrical forces and a tunnel-like cloud have been reported, but other theories include rapidly changing weather patterns and alien abduction. Ark of the Covenant Ethiopia https://www.tumblr.com/fahimfoysal21 Join the greatest religious quest of our time. The search for the Ark of the Covenant, the golden container thought to hold the Ten Commandments, dates back to 586 B.C., when it vanished from King Solomon's temple. Some scholars have speculated that the ark was brought to Ethiopia, while others believe the ark could be located in the Judean desert. Oregon Vortex Gold Hill, Oregon Experience an unexplainable force field just off Interstate 5 in southern Oregon. Native Americans called it the The Forbidden Ground, and in the early 1900s, scientists speculated that the land contained crossed magnetic lines that produced a strange force field. It's been reported that the vortex can make things spin, create the illusion of a dramatic change in height, and other optical illusions. The Boston Strangler Boston, Massachusetts Investigate and catch the real Boston Strangler. Between 1962 and 1964, 11 women were found strangled to death in their Boston homes. Albert DeSalvo confessed to the killings, but discrepancies in his story and advances in DNA testing led authorities to re-open the case in 2001. The Loch Ness Monster Inverness, Scotland Spot Nessie in the Highlands of Scotland. After thousands of reported sightings and investigations, the Loch Ness Monster has been described as 15 - 40 feet long with 1 or several humps. Scientists speculate that it (if it truly exists) could be a prehistoric marine reptile with a long neck and flippers, while others believe it could be part of the eel family. Crop Circles Avebury, England Decipher gigantic, intricate patterns found in the wheat fields of a small farming community. Crop circles have appeared around the world, but over 100 have been reported in Avebury within the last 12 years. Explanations for these frequent formations include hoaxes, the wind, the military, lasers and the ever popular extraterrestrial messages. Easter Island Statues Easter Island Witness Polynesian giants 2,300 miles west of Chile and 2,500 miles southeast of Tahiti. When discovered in 1722, this 15-mile island was completely isolated and uninhabited except for 800 enormous statues. Their huge size and weight -- some standing 30 feet tall and weighing over 75 tons -- would have made them almost impossible to build and move. Jack the Ripper London, England Retrace the steps of the world's most notorious serial killer. More than a century after the butchering of 5 prostitutes, the identity of Jack the Ripper remains a mystery. Visitors to London's East End can still experience that autumn of terror on the original Jack the Ripper Walk.

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[weather-usa]

A tropical cyclone may develop in the Gulf of Mexico as the Atlantic basin approaches the peak of hurricane season.

The National Hurricane Center stated that the system could gain enough strength to become a tropical depression by early to mid-next week as it moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The disturbance currently has a medium chance of development over the coming week.

Climate and Average Weather Year Round in 28075 - Harrisburg NC:

After tracking four separate disturbances for potential tropical development in the Atlantic basin, focus has now shifted to a tropical disturbance targeting the southern Gulf of Mexico, coinciding with the hurricane season's climatological peak on Sept. 10.

This disturbance has spent over a week crossing the Atlantic as a tropical wave, remaining an unorganized cluster of showers and thunderstorms as it encountered conditions unfavorable for development.

The disturbance currently sits near Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, where it remains disorganized. However, forecasts suggest the system will move into the Bay of Campeche on Saturday, where it could interact with a frontal boundary, according to the National Hurricane Center.

"We have a tropical wave with some visible cloud rotation moving inland across Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula," National Hurricane Center Director Dr. Michael Brennan told FOX Weather on Friday. "Once it moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico, south of this boundary, it may encounter conditions favorable for development."

Weather Forecast For 75077-Lewisville-TX:

https://www.behance.net/gallery/201743399/Weather-Forecast-For-75077-Lewisville-TX

The system could strengthen enough to become a tropical depression by early to mid-next week as it moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The agency has now given the disturbance a medium chance of development over the next week—the highest likelihood it’s had in several days.

“We’re assigning a 40% chance of development over the next week, so we could see a tropical depression form early to mid-next week,” NHC Director Dr. Michael Brennan said. “It could potentially become a threat to areas along the western Gulf Coast. It’s still too early to tell, but despite the long break in Atlantic activity, we've been monitoring several systems. This is currently our best candidate for development.”

NHC Director: Stay Alert

Despite the unusually quiet tropical activity over the past month, NHC Director Dr. Michael Brennan cautions against letting your guard down as hurricane season is far from over.

“The key message is to stop focusing on the seasonal forecast," Brennan said. "We still have around 60% of typical hurricane season activity ahead, even as we move into early September. For people in the U.S., the risk actually increases later in the season as storms tend to develop closer to us—in the Caribbean, Gulf, or off the East Coast. These can quickly become the short-notice hurricanes we're always concerned about.”

See more:

https://weatherusa.app/zip-code/weather-96742

https://weatherusa.app/zip-code/weather-96743

https://weatherusa.app/zip-code/weather-96744

https://weatherusa.app/zip-code/weather-96745

https://weatherusa.app/zip-code/weather-96746

[atlantichurricanes]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami, FL, USA

2024-09-06, 20:00 EDT

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico: A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. The wave is forecast to move over the Bay of Campeche on Saturday, where it will begin to interact with a frontal boundary. A tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of next week while the system moves slowly northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic: An elongated trough of low pressure over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic is producing broad shower and thunderstorm activity. A more concentrated area of low pressure may form within this region during the next couple of days. Any development of this system should be slow to occur while the disturbance meanders through the early part of next week and then begins to move west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic during the middle to latter part of next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

[dufrau]

what’s ur go to scent

I have a lot of them that I cycle through depending on the weather and my mood and the vibe im going for. But my top four currently are probably:

Debaser by D.S. & Durga - this is what I usually wear when it's really hot out. it opens with bright pear but pretty quickly dries down to green fig with a little creaminess from coconut, and a woody base. it smells clean but not soapy. layers well. i layer it with woody scents to lean it more masc but you could also layer it with fruitier or fresh floral scents to push it in the opposite direction. it's just pleasant.

African Rooibos by Chris Collins - this is insanely versatile. it has a bright opening that hangs around the edges throughout the life of it, the notes say bergamot but i get lime, and green cardamom. the drydown is like a warm cozy spicy situation with a creaminess that smooths it out but it never gets into sweet/gourmand territory. it's inviting. it's good in all weather.

Bois Belize by Nicolai - this is more of a cool weather scent. it's rose and clove and tea. the clove is a little rough at first but as it dries down the blend becomes just beautiful and warm and a little haunting. i get compliments when i wear this.

Dark Lord by Kilian - this just makes me feel very hot. i feel very sexually intimidating in this lol. it's jasmine and vetiver mostly, with a little bergamot and pepper to keep it lively. its actually not an aggressive fragrance at all, i find it sticks pretty close to the skin after the opening. but the vibe of it to me is just black leather in a sex way and it makes me very happy.

[rjzimmerman]

Excerpt from this New York Times story:

Jamaica was lashed with a surge of water, damaging winds and flooding rainfall on Wednesday as Beryl, the strongest hurricane the island has experienced in over a decade, delivered a glancing blow as it passed just south of the coast. The Category 4 storm struck the island just days after it swept through the eastern Caribbean, killing at least seven people.

Beryl’s well-defined eye, the calm area typically devoid of clouds in the center of a hurricane, was filled in early Wednesday morning on weather satellite imagery, a sign that the major hurricane may continue to weaken from its Category 5 peak on Tuesday. Forecasters still face challenges predicting how much its intensity will decrease as it churns toward the Yucatán and how much it may restrengthen as it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend.

Here are the key things to know about the storm:

Dangerous storm surge: The storm surge accompanying Beryl was expected to raise water levels by up to nine feet along the coast of Jamaica as the storm passed over the island Wednesday afternoon. The storm was expected to bring up to eight inches of rain across the island, with isolated amounts up to a foot.

Approaching the Cayman Islands: Beryl will remain a dangerous hurricane as it approaches the Cayman Islands overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning with hurricane conditions and two to four feet of storm surge.

A destructive path: Beryl devastated islands in Grenada after making landfall earlier on Monday as a Category 4 hurricane. Another three people died in northern Venezuela, where the storm caused heavy rains and flooding.

Devastated islands: Carriacou and Petite Martinique in Grenada were particularly ravaged by the storm. Officials said about 98 percent of the buildings on the islands, where between 9,000 and 10,000 people live, had been damaged or destroyed, including Carriacou’s main health facility, its airport and marinas. See satellite imagery of the destruction.

Mexico is bracing: By the weekend, the storm is expected to emerge into the Gulf of Mexico, and it is quite possible it could restrengthen into a hurricane after passing over the Yucatán Peninsula on Friday. It’s expected to make another landfall somewhere along the western Gulf of Mexico on Sunday or Monday, but how strong and the exact path it takes is still uncertain. The Mexican government issued a hurricane warning for the peninsula’s east coast where hurricane-force winds and a three- to five-foot storm surge is possible Thursday into Friday.

Tropical storm warnings: A tropical storm warning was in effect for parts of Belize, Haiti and the Dominican Republic, and a hurricane warning was in effect for Jamaica, where hurricane conditions were expected on Wednesday, the center said. The government of the Cayman Islands issued a hurricane warning on Tuesday afternoon for Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, and Cayman Brac.

Unusually early: Beryl is the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record in the Atlantic Ocean, according to Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist at Colorado State University who specializes in tropical cyclones. The previous record was set by Hurricane Emily on July 17, 2005, he said. This quick escalation was a direct result of the above-average sea surface temperatures as well as a harbinger of what is to come this hurricane season.