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theanimeview · 4 years ago

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What Makes a King? - A Concept Overview & Analysis

By: Peggy Sue Wood | @peggyseditorial

Above is my favorite scene from the manhwa King’s Maker (from Season 1 Episode/chapter 14).

I love this scene because it perfectly embodies the ideal of what it takes to be a just or good leader in the fictional world of this particular story (not just seen as one publicly, but actually being one). It's an idea that relies heavily on the concept of noblesse oblige, which tends to pop-up in stories featuring nobles, royalty, or something similar. While also expanding on this idea of the necessity for chivalry that draws its definition and history from stories of King Arthur and his Knights of the Round. In modern-day stories, I would argue that much of our current interpretations and ideas of knightly/chivalric qualities come from Geoffrey of Monmouth’s stories of the king and his knights as well as the tales’ later retellings. [For those that don’t know noblesse oblige is the idea of inferred responsibility from privileged people to act with generosity and nobility toward those less privileged and chivalry is defined as a knightly system with its religious, moral, and social code. Geoffrey of Monmouth is the author of the first narrative account of King Arthur's life that we know of.]

You see, as someone who has studied literature in school, particularly Classical Antiquity and where we've gone from since, I've always been really interested in this idea of what makes a King, particularly in stories where we see a fight for the throne because it's hard to maintain these ideal qualities in what is often a bloody battle for power among people who have little to no qualms about committing vile acts to maintain what they have or gain more power, money, etc. This question of what makes a King? is a one I find myself asking often when I read fantasy stories that involve any question of a throne or it’s inheritance. However, I use the term "king" loosely to encompass the concept of a rightful ruler as defined by the set up an author gives in their individual stories.

In popular works like Game of Thrones, in which we see much of the darker sides to knighthood, oaths, nobility, royalty, and so on--we see the grim reality of Geoffrey of Monmouth's time. In fact, some argue that Geoffrey's account and the focus on the knighthood and Arthur's reign amid war and beyond was a subversive aim to inspire real change among the dark abuses of power that many members of the knightly class, nobility, and above, held. In a movie like The Knight's Tale, we see this too in which it is the common man that depicts the embodiment of a true knight's spirit--one that is loyal, protective, chivalrous, deserving of love and admiration, and so on--rather than the majority of the knights born to their status. Shakespeare, who features many noble and royal families in his tales, also marks some of these qualities--showing audiences both redeeming features and cruelty among the classes (a rare depiction that landed him, at times, in the hot seat).

These stories draw me in, as they do many others, and I think we can draw a conclusion on the trials a good or just king, knight, noble, or other must embody to achieve their "throne" by the end--one that is a bit more clear than The King Maker's summary above.

Each potential "king" must succeed in a trail depicting one or more of the seven knightly virtues (defined here: http://marktoci.weebly.com/7-knightly-virtues.html), those being:

“Courage. More than bravado or bluster, a knight must have the courage of the heart necessary to undertake tasks which are difficult, tedious or unglamorous, and to graciously accept the sacrifices involved.

Justice. A knight holds him- or herself to the highest standard of behavior, and knows that “fudging” on the little rules weakens the fabric of society for everyone.

Mercy. Words and attitudes can be painful weapons, which is why a knight exercises mercy in his or her dealings with others, creating a sense of peace and community, rather than engendering hostility and antagonism.

Generosity. Sharing what’s valuable in life means not just giving away material goods, but also time, attention, wisdom and energy - the things that create a strong, rich and diverse community.

Faith. In the code of chivalry, “faith” means trust and integrity, and a knight is always faithful to his or her promises, no matter how big or small they may be.

Nobility. Although this word is sometimes confused with “entitlement” or “snobbishness,” in the code of chivalry it conveys the importance of upholding one’s convictions at all times, especially when no one else is watching.

Hope. More than just a safety net in times of tragedy, hope is present every day in a knight’s positive outlook and cheerful demeanor - the ‘shining armor’ that shields him or her, and inspires people all around.”

Suppose one were to look to the code of chivalry defined in Sir Gawain and the Green Knight. In that case, those virtuous qualities might instead be represented as friendship, generosity, chastity, courtesy, and piety/humility.

Failing to pass such trails, the potential "king" would instead display a knightly sin (defined here: https://chivalrytoday.com/knightly-sins/), and often, if not always, in a story suffers karma for such actions.

The idea of a Hero's Journey, a story form I'm sure everyone has heard defined many times before, includes these trails even though they are rarely explicitly spelled out in a summary of the form. This may be because many heroes rising, of which these "kings" are, already embody these virtues and only struggle with or require a trial against one of them.

As it stands, we can often see in advance a potential king's tragedy by understanding this idea. For example, we know that Wolfgang Goldenleonard, the prince seen above in The King's Maker excerpt I’ve provided, is going to be the King, birth order be damned. Will there be trails? Of course. And he passes them securing his crown at the end of Season 1; and continues to pass them thus maintaining his throne, which we can see currently in Season 2.

By extension, we can see the character's whose stories will end in failure based on how long it takes them to pass the knightly trails, if they even can pass them. For example, Richard III in Requiem of the Rose King, which is sure to end in tragedy--not simply because the Shakespearean plays the work draws on tend to end that way but because Richard’s character has changed from the loyal son/brother.

King, in this sense, could probably easily be replaced by the word hero or knight... but the idea stands that to make them worthy of their title they seem to need one or more of these qualities.

So as you read the next chapter of your favorite knight's tale, or a battle for the throne, or a rise to power--consider whether or not your hero/protagonist is capable of achieving these virtues. You will probably find that even the characters that seem villainous, like the self-ish Seo Joo-Heon from Tomb Raider King or Naofumi Iwatani from The Rising of The Shield Hero, pass the test we've defined here.

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suits-of-woe · 4 years ago

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What do you think is the purpose of having Cordelia absent for so much of the play? When I first started getting into Lear I was *really* surprised, because I had been under the impression that it was basically the Cordelia show, with a sprinkling of Edmund. She's so crucial in the beginning and the end, but then doesn't get embroiled in the vicious backstabbing everyone else participates in. Do you think she might have started playing the game everyone else does, if she hadn't been in France?

So this is kind of a hard question to answer because King Lear, like most of Shakespeare’s plays, was based on a specific source, so it’s difficult to talk about Shakespeare’s intentionality with certain plot choices when they weren’t his original creation. In the story of Leir of Britain from Geoffrey of Monmouth’s History of the Kings of Britain (which this ask actually made me read for the first time, so stay tuned for some thoughts on that later), the start of the Cordelia story is pretty much the same - she refuses to flatter the father, he gives her no land and no dowry, she marries the King of France, and she’s basically out of the picture until Lear is fleeing Goneril and Regan and needs her military support. That’s not to say Shakespeare couldn’t have chosen to keep Cordelia as a more major player, but it would have been such a huge change from the source material that the plot probably wouldn’t have resembled the history much at all.

What is super interesting is that Shakespeare makes an enormous change to Cordelia’s ending. In the original history, Cordelia’s French armies invade Britain and overthrow Goneril and Regan, and Lear is put back on the throne and rules for several more years before he dies. Shakespeare’s tragic ending was so controversial that an alternative version of the play written by Nahum Tate where Cordelia lives was actually more commonly performed than Shakespeare’s text for over a century. Why did Shakespeare change this? I really can’t claim to know, but I think it might reflect some of the cynicism King Lear has about the kind of selfless love that attempts to be divorced from power structures and public displays that Cordelia most embodies. Unlike something like Romeo and Juliet, Lear is not a play where love always lives on even in the wake of tragedy. Cordelia’s death feels pointless and futile and so, so unfair but I think that’s the point.

As for your perception that Cordelia was a much more relevant character than she actually is, I think that’s just what happens sometimes when a character is so memorable and plays a disproportionately big role in how the plot moves forward. Personally, I’m always shocked to remember that Tybalt only has 17 lines in Romeo and Juliet (less than one of the servants in the first scene!) because I think of him as one of the most iconic characters in that play. Cordelia is 1. the character whose action sets the A-plot in motion, 2. strongly established with clear traits that set her apart from all the other characters even in her small amount of stage-time, and 3. the subject of a lot of commentary and scholarship (even if a lot of scholars, in my humble opinion, have bad takes on her). Even if she doesn’t show up that much, it’s impossible to even summarize King Lear without mentioning Cordelia, so I’m guessing your experience of hearing a lot about her before you read the play is pretty common!

Finally, some very non-academic speculation, just for fun. If Cordelia didn’t end up in France...well, you’ve either got a Cordelia who flatters Lear or a Lear that forgives her lack of flattery, both of which are pretty big deviations. OR you’ve got an unmarried Cordelia who Lear still hates but is hanging around and probably watching her sisters very closely. I think in any case this probably eventually results in Lear staying with Cordelia, whether from the start or after Goneril and Regan force him to leave his knights behind. And while I don’t think Cordelia is a schemer or particularly inclined to play political games, I think she would try to step in somehow to take power from her sisters if she thought they were abusing it. This is also a universe where Goneril and Regan have no reason to be politically united, as they probably wouldn’t come after Lear so blatantly as long as they didn’t personally have to deal with him. Which means this COULD be a universe where we get the Albany vs Cornwall showdown that my heart not-so-secretly desires. And maybe, since Cordelia never really shows a preference for either of her sisters or their husbands, she chooses to sit out the conflict and wait until one of them destroys the other until she makes her move. (That or she and Lear just back Albany because he’s the nice one and Lear supposedly likes him more but. Meh. Cornwall rights.) It’s hard to know! But even though I doubt she would be the one to start shit, I can see her getting involved if there was already a war going on and her sisters were crossing a line.

#king lear #asks #sorry if this is kind of a weird answer i wasn't sure exactly how to respond to this #feel free to send me more thoughts on the cordelia-is-more-in-the-picture au though i'd live for that #i live for pretty much every lear au if you can't tell #WHAT WAS GONNA HAPPEN BETWEEN CORNWALL AND ALBANY I WOULD LIKE TO SEE IT #mine

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jadelotusflower · 4 years ago

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August 2020 roundup

The end of another month - this year is truly going by at the speed of light. I hope everyone is coping okay - the state borders are still closed here and (for now) covid is under control, so I am grateful for that and feel for those who are not so lucky.

Writing wise, I’ve not been as productive as I would like, but I did update Against the Dying of the Light, and it was an absolutely mammoth chapter with action/battle scenes which I always find difficult, so was fairly proud of the result.

I haven’t read much fanfic lately, my to-read list is a mile long, but I’ll get to it.

I have been reading more actual books, and finished The History of the Kings of Britain by Geoffrey Monmouth, which I found interesting as an faux-historical and early Arthurian reference, if not particularly enthralling.

I’m about two-thirds of the way through The Sunne in Splendour by Sharon Kay Penman which has long been on my to-read list. I am not as well versed in the Wars of the Roses period as I am with the Tudor period, but knew this book was rather well regarded (particularly compared to the Gregory novels, which I find frustrating). Of course it’s unapologetically pro-Richard III, but I don’t mind the perspective and at least so far it doesn’t veer to far into canonising the character - the treatment of Elizabeth Woodville is slightly harsh but then I don’t think his dislike is ever painted as anything but classist, and therefore flawed.

I tend not to take a “side” in this period of history - I can understand the argument of both the Lancaster and York factions, and am generally sympathetic to most characters (except Warwick and Clarence). I do find it interesting that very little of the book is from Richard’s pov - instead his characterisation is mostly how he is seen through the (mostly friendly) eyes of others - Anne, Francis Lovell, Edward, etc. But I’m really enjoying this choice and the variance of pov to give a fuller picture of the time and events.

While not writing, I’ve have watched a lot of film/tv - theatres have reopened here and I saw The Personal History of David Copperfield (dir. Armando Iannucci) which I just loved. I’ve not read the book (although it’s on the list) so don’t know how it fares as an adaptation, but found it so enjoyable and highly recommend. It’s undoubtedly a light hearted take on the source material, but there’s still an emotional depth despite (I imagine) a great deal being cut from the novel - particularly the way in which we write (and re-write) our own stories. There’s a particularly good scene near the end (spoilers I guess) between Copperfield and his fiancé Dora, where he writes her into a scene for which she was not present, and she’s the one who tells him to write her out because she “doesn’t fit” and it’s so succinct and restrained yet so cleverly written. I gather this is a significant change from the novel, yet gives Dora more agency in the story than her original role (which was, as I’ve looked up, to get sick and die).

Dev Patel is of course wonderful (and gorgeous) in the title role, backed by a stellar cast - Hugh Laurie, Tilda Swinton, Nikki Amuka-Bird (she is fantastic - I finally got around to watching Avenue 5 and I love her so much), Peter Capaldi - even Gwendoline Christie in a tiny role. Rosalind Eleazar as Agnes is also one to watch.

I also highly recommend Little Fires Everywhere - I heard Reese Witherspoon on Jameela Jamil’s podcast a while ago and it was so interesting to hear her discuss the challenges she’s faced as a woman in Hollywood (while acknowledging that others, particularly women of colour, are up against greater prejudice) - taking her career into her own hands, obtaining and producing female-driven content that might otherwise be overlooked. Little Fires Everywhere (adapted from the novel by Celeste Ng) is one such project - produced in equal partnership with Kerry Washington, and both sharing top billing as the show’s leads. What could be yet another story of Rich White Women Problems actually becomes a nuanced take on motherhood, race, class, family, art - with no conciliation that any of the characters have to be “nice”. In fact both Elena (Witherspoon) and Mia (Washington) can be at times downright unlikeable, and you can see both sides of the main conflict - on the primetimer forums there were commentators frustrated that they weren’t sure who they were meant to be “rooting for” but that’s the point - even if the ending is slightly unsatisfying, this is a messy story about messy people and there are no right answers.

Both women are incredible but Witherspoon has the flashier role, and is really a tour de force of white female privilege - the microaggressions, the slow unravelling, the obsession with perfection. I don’t want to spoil anything because it’s worth watching without expectations - I will also just give a shout out to Joshua Jackson who is sort of wasted in the husband role, but turnabout’s fair play I guess!

Hollywood. I...find Ryan Murphy projects very hit and miss. I enjoyed this for the most part, it’s obvious Murphy loves old Hollywood, both the glamour and the seedy underbelly, and both are on display here. I will also give him credit for good intentions in diversity, both in race and gender as well as age (both Patti Lupone and Holland Taylor have great roles), but I found the ending somewhat soured the entire thing for me.

(Spoilers) While I understand that this was an alternate history wish fulfilment, it just felt rather cheap to have this movie sweep the Oscars and then suddenly bam, Hollywood is no longer racist or homophobic. The idea that if only someone had had the guts and taken the chance to make a movie like Meg with a black leading actress, written by a black gay screenwriter who holds hands with his boyfriend at the Oscars, it would break box office records, be almost universally embraced, and sweep the awards (except for the white guy), felt a bit...disingenuous? Of course, yes it would have been great if someone had taken those chances, I just feel it would have been almost more uplifting for the film to be a modest success, prove that such films/talent could be embraced, maybe win an Oscar or two, and set Hollywood down a more inclusive path, rather than immediate fairyland fantasy. For me, there just still needs to be internal consistency in your alternate history, otherwise it doesn’t resonate.

That said, there was a lot to like about the show, the actors were excellent across the board, the costumes were incredible, and there was a lot of interesting/heartbreaking real Hollywood stories (I never knew about Anna May Wong for example).

#personal #2020 roundup #recommendations

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thephantomofthelibrary · 5 years ago

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The Welsh Flag

[The Welsh Flag]

The Welsh flag stands out against many other flags with a vibrant red dragon standing defiant at front and centre. This flag has a story, a deep history and mythology around its symbolism which has allowed for it to be such an important symbol in Wales today.

The mythology of Wales is rich and vibrant. One particular tale involves a red dragon. There are many different versions of this tale but they all boil down to the same basic principles. The Britons were threatened by invasion, usually from the Saxons or a mythical race of beings as a surrogate for the saxons in the myth. A white dragon, representing the Anglo-Saxons, and a red dragon, representing the Welsh, fight viciously. At first the red dragon appears to be at the mercy of the white dragon, the white dragon appears to have the upper hand. But eventually, the red dragon is victorious. It symbolised how the fight against the invaders would seem hopeless and lost but eventually, Wales and the Britons would win and reclaim back what they had lost to the Anglo-Saxon invaders.

[The fight of the red and white dragons from a 15th century manuscript of Geoffrey of Monmouth’s History of the Kings of Britain.]

Each version of this myth has it's own quirks. Some say both the dragons lay dormant in Snowdownia waiting to be awoken and to fight again, others say the red dragon lies sleeping beneath a mountain to help Wales when in need. Some place it as part of Arthurian legend, making Merlin the figure who entrapped one or both dragons, others put the historic figures at the time as responsible. But that is not the point. This red dragon came to represent Wales in every part, its culture, its language, its struggle, its history. The red dragon became a potent symbol, said to have been taken by King Arthur and put upon his flags. With this addition, the red dragon became associated with not just Welsh royalty, but of kingship of the whole of the British Isles. The legend of King Arthur ends wih him lying in wait to be awakened when Wales was in trouble and needed him. Then the Mab Darogan (son of prophecy) would come and take his place on the throne of the whole of Britain and a Welshman would sit on the throne of Britain once again. The dragon became an important symbol in the standards and banners of the princes of Wales up until the Welsh Wars of Independence against Edward I of England.

[The Flag of Owain Glyndwr]

Next to the scene comes Owain Glyndwr. He took the dragon as his banner in his fight for freedom from the English crown. His flag bore a striking resemblance to that of Llywelyn the Last. While his fight had some great success in the beginning, it ultimately failed. Glyndwr disappeared, his legend becoming like King Arthur’s, that he would return when Wales needed him most.

[The battle standard of Henry Tudor]

Enter Henry Tudor. Henry Tudor was born in Pembrokeshire in Wales and his father, Edmund Tudor, was the son of a Welshman (Owen Tudor) and the widow of Henry V (Catherine of Valois). Tudor is an anglicised spelling of the Welsh name Tudur. He played on his Welsh origins. His standard was a red dragon on the green and white of House Tudor. Henry Tudor called Welshmen to his cause in full knowledge of the legend of the Mab Darogan. In him, the people of Wales thought they had found their Mab Darogan. They gave their almost unwavering loyalty to him for it and it continued for the monarchy. The Tudors and most everything they did were supported in Wales due to it. The use of his own Tudor colours of white and green in the background of the flag set the course for the Welsh flag as we know it today.

(If you want to know more about Henry Tudor and his appeal to the Welsh click here!)

#wales #cymru #cymru am byth #welsh dragon #welsh flag #owain glyndwr #glyndwr #glendower #henry tudor #llywelyn the last #welsh history #henry vii #tudor #tudors #medieval #early modern #mab darogan

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sublimegentlemanalpaca · 7 years ago

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(SPOILERS) BEHOLD! The Caretakers of the Imaginarium Geographica. Those known, guessed at, and so on. Enjoy

ELDER CARETAKERS GEOFFREY OF MONMOUTH: British Cleric. The first Caretaker of the Geographica. Known for The History of the Kings of Britain. His portrait is present in the Pygmalion Gallery, but is unfinished meaning he can not step through. WACE: Norman Poet. Best known for Roman de Brut and other poetic works. He has no portrait in the Pygmalion Gallery on account of being a Fiction. This set a precedent so other Fictions would not be recruited as Caretakers (Herman Melville ) or Mystorians (Sir Walter Scott). CHRETIN DE TROYES: A French Poet. Known for his works relating to Arthurian legends, and for originating the character of Lancelot. Has a Portrait in the Pygmalion Gallery. 28 year gap... ROGER BACON: English Philosopher and Francescian Friar. Aka Doctor Mirabilis. Best known probably for his work with Automatons among other things. Has no Portrait in the Pygmalion Gallery on account of living as The Tin Man (no actual relation to the character from Oz as far as I know) so he is sort of a Cyborg I think? Died when holding off a Lloigor (A fallen Star specifically) in the ruins of Parlon so the other Companions could escape through a door from the Keep of Time. DANTE ALIGHIERI: Italian Poet. Known best for the Divine Comedy, mostly the Inferno. Was a Canidate to replace Dee as the Prime Caretaker. Had a Portrait in the Pygmalion Gallery. Unfortunately he remained outside of Tamerlane House after the Seven day time limit and Perished while visiting the Underneath. GEOFFREY CHAUCER: English Poet. Like Dante legitimized the use of his native language’s vernacular. Best known for the Canterbury Tales. Has a Portrait in the Pygmalion Gallery. Holds the title of Senior Caretaker, and is in charge of hazing new members of the Caretakers Emeritus. Has some dealings with Imaginary and Fictional Islands. Gap of 15 years between their death and birth. ? SIR THOMAS MALORY : English writer. Best known for writing Le’ Morte D’Arthur. Has a Portrait in the Pygmalion Gallery. Is dirtier in appearance than expected. LEONARDO DAVINCI: Italian Inventor and Painter. Known for works such as the Mona Lisa and the Last Supper. Also made a Time Traveling Treadmill that no ordinary human can use. Is said to have plagerized Roger Bacon. Is also quite pompous....was apparently chosen by Chaucer ? 8 year Gap. DOCTOR JOHN DEE: Known as the CHRONOGRAPHER OF LOST TIMES and as THE SCHOLAR: English Alchemist, Astrologer, Navigator, Hermetic Philosopher, and Advisor. Perhaps best known as an Royal Adviser to Queen Elizabeth part of her Intelligencia. Originated and took the position of Prime Caretaker. The first Caretaker to go rogue. Stole the Geographica but was unsuccessful in keeping it. Went on to found the Imperial Cartological Society (I.C.S) Under Queen Elizabeth the First. This organization was a cover for Dee’s Personal Cabal (Dee’s Cabal, or just The Cabal) which worked in service of the Ecthroi. The Cabal’s go to bring the world, the universe, and all of creation to ‘Perfect Order’. Dee’s personal goal of becoming Master of all Creation. Following Dee’s treachery, it was decided that there should be Three Caretakers to deal with such a potential problem in the future. The First Trio was as follows. TYCHO BRAHE: Danish Astronomer, Alchemist, and part time Duelist. Known for his Astronomical observations, and false nose. Caveo Principia alongside De Cervantes and Spenser. Mentored Johannes Kepler. Has a Painting in the Pygmalion Gallery. Is not on good terms with Don Quixote Is known to steal things and hide them in the boat house near Tamerlane House. MIGUEL DE CERVANTES: Spanish writer. Best known for writing Don Quixote. Caveo Secundus. Went on a quest with Quixote, and his fellow Caretakers Brahe and Spenser to retrieve the Stolen Geographica. Succeeded. Is on good terms with the Knight. Has a painting in The Pygmalion Gallery. EDMUND SPENSER: English Writer. Best known for the Faerie Queen. Participated in the quest to retrieve the Stolen Geographica. Caveo Tertius (perhaps switch him with Brahe?). On good terms with Quixote. The Trio follow them included: JOHANNES KEPLER: German Mathematician, Astronomer, and Astrologer. Best known for his laws of a Planetary Motion. Caveo Principia alongside Shakespeare and Marlowe. WILLIAM SHAKESPEARE: Do I need to introduce him? Alright. English Playwright, Poet, and Actor (?). Best known for his plays, Sonnets and Poems...really good. Caveo Secundus. Has pretended to be dumber than he is to avoid the pressure of living up to people’s expectations of him (Poor Will). Part of this act was always suggesting someone should be Flogged. Has a Portrait in the Pygmalion Gallery. Planned and Built Shakespeare’s Bridge as a new way of Crossing the Frontier. Also built a Zigurat to travel back into Deep Time. Ended inspiring the construction of a lot of Pyramids. CHRISTOPHER (Kit) MARLOWE: A contemporary of Shakespeare’s. Best known for Doctor Faustus, and also known for the problematic Jew of Malta. Defected to the ICS. His last known location was trapped on some Fictional Island ( which is different than an imaginary one, according to Chaucer). Made a Tulpa .No Portrait. Following those three. CYRANO DE BERGERAC: French novelist, playwright, and duelist. Most well known for a play about him. Caveo Principia.Defected to the ICS. Stuck on either a Commet, or the Moon. JOHN MILTON: English writer, best known for Paradise Lost. Caveo Secundus. Defected to ICS. Last seen somewhere in the Underworld. Unsure and Unkown (UaU). Probably CHARLES COYPEAU d’ASSOUCY? A French Musician and Burlesque Poet . From what I found he was a Contemporary of DeBergeracs (one writer claiming they were lovers) but became bitter rivals later on. Whatever the case, d’Assoucy as Caveo Tertius, Failed in his Duties as a Caretaker and his Portrait in the Pygmalion Gallery is turned over. After them. Three unkowns. Possibly CHARLES PERAULT: French writer and compiler of French Fairytales such as Beauty and the Beast. Caveo Principia. Ultimately Failed in his Duties as a Caretaker, leaving his portrait to be turned over. JOHN DRYDEN: English Playwright during the Restoration. England’s first Poet Laurette. Caveo Secundus. Failed in his duties as a Caretaker. OLE CHRISTENSEN RØMER: Danish Atronomer. First Quantitative measurements of the Speed of Lightz Caveo Tertius. Ultimately failed in his Duties. As such his portrait in the Pygmalion Gallery is turned over. Next DANIEL DEFOE: English writer, best known for Robinson Crusoe( I’m pretty sure). Caveo Principia. Actually a Spy for the ICS, and Dee’s Cabal. Was a Tulpa, killed by Smaranth, then brought back as a Painting. Retrieved by the Cabal so he might reveal the location of the lost Prince Coal. Is away from Tamerlane House Past the limit of Seven Days and Perishes on Easter Island. JOHNATHAN SWIFT: English writer, best known for Guliver’s Travels. Caveo Secundus. Has a Portrait in the Pygmalion Gallery. UaU. Possibly CARLO GOLDINI? Italian Playwright. Caveo Tertius Failed in his Duties as a Caretaker . You know the drill. Following Defore and Swift JOHAN WOLFGANG VON GOETHE: German Writer, Philosopher, and Statesman. Perhaps best known for his version of Faust, Wilhelm Meister’s Apprenticeship and other works. Caveo Principia. Has a Portrait in the Pygmalion Gallery. UaU possibly, Pierre Beaumarchais: French Polymath. Notably Playwright, watchmaker, and arms dealer. Best known for writing the play the Barber of Seville and it’s sequels. Caveo Secundus. My headcanon is he tried to sell his own reproductions of the Anabias( spelling?) Machines. Ultimately failed as a Caretaker, and has his Portrait turned over. UaU. Possibly Antonio Salieri the Venetian Composer, or possibly Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart...take your pick. Following under Von Goethe. WILLIAM BLAKE: English Poet and Painter. Caveo Principia. Began the Portraits for the Pygmalion Gallery before Basil Hallward. The ‘Second Greatest Betrayer of the Caretakers ‘. Thought to have defected to the ICS and died in a river of gold. Then thought to be working for Dee’s Cabal. In actuality, Blake has six (formerly seven ) Tulpas of himself. Is loyal to Verne and is in fact the leader of the Mystorians. As such, he may be addressed as Doctor Blake. WILLIAM COLERIDGE: English Poet , best known for Kublai Khan. Defected to the ICS. Last seen in the ruins of Xanadu past the End of the world at Terminus. Offered a chance to leave by Stellan Sigurdsson. He declines, thinking if he stays the ruins will eventually return to their Former glory. WASHINGTON IRVING: American Writer. Perhaps best known the Sleepy Hollow. Caveo Tertius, eventually Caveo Principia after Blake and Coleridge defect. JAKOB GRIMM: Along with his brother Wilhelm, Jakob compiled around 200 or more German Fairytales. He and his brother also produced the first Dictionary. Was an eventual replacement for William Blake, taking on the role of Caveo Secundus. Lived long enough to help train Hans Christian Andersen (Seriously Jakob lived a freaking long time). Has a Portrait in the Pygmalion Gallery. Has likely had plenty of experience with situations found in the Tales he and his brother collected. Forced to act as a spy for the Shadow King to keep his brother alive, with the skin on his back ( showing a map to the Nameless Isles) ripped from his back. Dead? FRANZ SCHUBERT: Austrian Composer. Perhaps best known for The Unfinished Symphony. Among other works( not really familiar with Schubert). Replacement for Coleridge, taking the position of Caveo Tertius. The second most Supernaturally inclined of the Caretakers (second only to Poe). Knows quite a bit about the Echthroi. May be able to banish demons and similar entities through his music. Next we have Hearts on Fire, or the Romantic Trio. MARY WALLSTONECRAFT ( latter Shelley): English writer, best known for Frankenstein. Caveo Principia. Had wonderful adventures with Percey and George. Saved George Gordon’s Portrait from being completely Burned. PERCEY SHELLEY: English Poet. Best known for Ozymandius? Caveo Secundus. Has a Portrait in the Pygmalion Gallery. Tried to burn George Gordon’s Portrait. George Gordon/Lord Byron: English Poet, writter, and Nobleman. Best known for Don Juan, and laying out the Byronic Hero. Defected to the ICS, but did not have a Tulpa. His portrait was almost Burned away. Following a reconciliation between the Caretakers and the remaining members of the ICS, Byron had been put on Probation, with other to follow no doubt. Is the butt of just about everyone’s jokes. EDGAR ALLAN POE.: American Writer and Poet. Best known for his poems and Horror short stories. Not as well known for his Humor based short stories. Following George Gordon’s treachery, Poe immediately stepped in to take on the Role of acting Caveo Tertius. Has no Portrait in The Pygmalion Gallery as he is still alive and it’s his house. Poe is the Enigmatic Master of Tamerlane House( which is one of the best places ever) having his own room. Likely let the Caretakers have use of it prior to taking on the Identity of Poe. Poe is revealed later on to have been the Wizard Prospero, and long before then he was (is) the Biblical Cain. The First Murderer. Poe is also noted to be the Arch Imago of the Archipelago.( which I still have some difficulty understanding). Later when he is outed he thinks on taking the Name Cronus. I still refer to him as Poe for simplicity’s sake, and because I find it to be cooler for one reason or another. One other note regarding Poe is that it’s Stated that he is the Leader of The Caretakers Emerti (The Reclusive Leader of the Caretakers Emeriti DoW page 29) Following Hearts on Fire and Poe ALEXANDRE DUMAS PERE: French Writer. Best known for the Three Musketeers series, Count of Monte Cristo and other Works. Caveo Principia with Hawthorne and Andersen. Baker for Tamerlane House. Mentored his Son Alexandre Dumas Fils NATHANIEL HAWTHORNE: American Writer, perhaps best known for the Scarlet Letter and Rapicini’s Daughter (who it turns out is a Mesenger). Caveo Secundus. Head of Security at Tamerlane House. One of the most Badass among the Caretakers. Expert and Hand to Hand Combat. Has a Portrait in the Pygmalion Gallery. HANS CHRISTIAN ANDERSEN: Danish Writer, best known for his Art Fairytales such as the Little Mermaid or the Ugly Duckling. Caveo Tertius. Has a Portrait in the Pygmalion Gallery Following Dumas, Hawthorne, and Andersen. CHARLES DICKENS: English Writer, best known for his novels such as Oliver Twist or the Christmas Carol. Caveo Principia alongside Dumas fills and Twain. Trained Magwich, Richard Francis Burton (the eventual face of the ICS) and eventually trained Jules Verne. ALEXANDRE DUMAS fils: French Writer and Playwright. Defected to the ICS. Believed to be dead. MARK TWAIN (-aka SAMUEL CLEMENS). American Writer, best known for the Adventures of Tom Sawyer, and a Connecticut Yankee in King Arthur’s Court. Caveo Tertius. Has had experience with Time Travel. A friend to Mesenger Hank Morgan. A friend in life to Cabal member Nikola Tesla. Father to Joe Clemens (aka Injuin Joe or Harry Billy)? Has probably been to the Underneath? Knows how and when to fire a pistol ( to defend a lady’s honor, or to silence a bunch of braying Jack Asses). Then we have Travel Buddies. JULES VERNE: The Frenchman, The Prime Caretaker. French Writer known for his Sci Fi and Adventure Stories. Took on the role of Prime Caretaker. Was thought to be a Tulpa but in fact has been alive. Raises Goats as a hobby. Keeps his own skull from another timeline on his desk. Gives up his soul to serve as the Load bearing stone of the Keep of Time. PROFESSOR STELLAN SIGURDSSON: A Norwegian or Icelandic man who in his earlier days was quite the adventurer. In his later years he became a Professional Philogist and Linguist. Might be the model for some of Verne’s Adventurers. Taught Jamie and later John. Was a personal friend of the Goblin King (who’s name escapes me). His primary death is what brings John Jack and Charles together. Later on he helps lead an Expedition with Don Quixote, The Grail Child Rose Dyson, the Badger Uncas, and the Clockwork Owl Archimedes passed the edge of the world at Terminus to find Madoc and repair the Sword of Aneas. Unfortunately he is a painting. The journey takes more than a Seven Days and perishes on the way back. He perished standing up with the help of Quixote, who told him he (Stellan) would have a place in a hall of Heroes. He was also able to finish a book John recently published at the time. H.G. “Bert” Wells: The Far Traveler. British Writer. Best known for his various Science fiction works. Caveo Tertius. An Anomoly as he is an H.G. Wells that time traveled while the other H.G.Wells (Herb) is just being H.G.Wells (and a Mystorian). Came from the future with his daughter Aven who’d eventually become captain of the Indigo Dragon. Accompanied Stellan on many Adventures, and was also a friend of the Goblin King. Joined Rose Dyson, Laura Glue( I’m pretty sure? Correct me if I’m wrong) Charles Williams, Edmond McGee, Archimedes, Fred (I think? )and Richard Francis Burton on a quest to find The lost prince Coal. He eventually died when Prime H.G. Wells’ Prime Time ends. Herb moves on, While Bert gets a Painting in the Pygmalion Gallery. Thanks to some shenanigans on Verne’s part, they are also able to get a Painting of Verne’s wife Weena. Resigned and defected. J.M. ‘Jammie’ Barie. English writer and Playwright best known for Peter Pan. Caveo Principia. The first and so far only Caretaker to resign from the position. That said he did not join the ICS, Cabal, or any other opposing organization. Was friends with Peter Pan until they had a falling out. He has a Portrait in the Pygmalion Gallery along with other allies such as Oscar Wilde. HARRY HOUDINI (Erich Weiss): Austro-Hungarian Born American Magician and Stunt performer. The Magician. Caveo Secundus, defected to the ICS and was chased around the world by Samaranth when he tried to reveal the Archipelago of Dreams with Arthur Connan Doyle. Knows some actual magic and is quite proficient in it. SIR ARTHUR CONNAN DOYLE: The Detective. Caveo Tertius. Defected to the ICS See Houdini...later with Houdini and Burton they join forces with the Caretakers. He and Houdini also become apprentice Goat herds. Helping with Verne’s goats. The Caretakers of Prophecy J.R.R. Tolkien: John, Ron, Tollers. The Prime Caretaker. English writer, best known for...I don’t think he needs much of an introduction. Caveo Principia. Eventually takes over the role of Prime Caretaker from Verne. Expert in Languages, and some combat. He eventually ascends and becomes a freakin Dragon along with his wife Edith. C.S. “Jack” Lewis: English Writer, best known for the Chronicles of Narnia. Caveo Secundus. Has a Portrait in the Pygmalion Gallery eventually. Has had dealings with Giants at some point probably. Charles Williams: The Third. British Writer best kno...known for.....uh.... known for Burning down the Keep of Time. He also has written some rather good books including All Hallows’ Eve and War in Heaven. Caveo Tertius. Friend to all animals (especially Badgers), and a Master of Stealth. Also has a fair understanding of other dimensions. An alternate timeline version of him is responsible for burning the Library of Alexandria. He had made a Tulpa, and as such is still able to do feild work for the Caretakers. After John Jack and Charles. FRED THE BADGER (last name)? Grandson of Tummuler, son of Uncas, and Aprentice to Charles Williams. Once a member of the Royal Animal Rescue Squad. Is really supposed to be Caveo Principia but once he had two other Caretakers with him, he decided to take the role of Caveo Tertius like Charles. MADELINE Le’ENGLE: American Writer, best known for the Wrinkle in Time series. The Chronos and Kairos books and others. Caveo Secundus Apprenticed by Jack. Ray Bradbury: American Writer. Best known for his various Science fiction and dystopian works. Apprenticed Under John Present Caretakers? JAMES A. OWEN: American Writer and Ilustrator. Best known for the Star child Comic series, and the Chronicles of the Imaginarium Geographica book series. Caveo Principia. UaU. Possibly Robin Hobb, Robin McKinley, or Susan Cooper. I’m not sure which...Also, Ursula K LeGuin. Or Robert Holdstock as others have suggested. Just remembered Cinda Williams Chima, and Cornelia Funke. They all seem like they’d work really well. I can’t determine who. Leaning towards Chima and Funke. UaU. Would think maybe Pratchett but I think in this context he’d be a Fiction. That said.”, NEIL GAIMAN: English Writer. Best known for his Fantasy books like Stardust, American Gods, his comic Sandman, and his book Coraline. And done. Make corrections if you like. But there it is. Nearly two months, and just now nearly three hours. It is done! Done to the best of my ability...but done all the same! Make of it what you will. The format isn’t staying how I type it. The Spaces aren’t showing up. Damn. Well that’s for tomorrow. Now for bed.

#Chronicles of the Imaginarium Geographica #Caretakers Emeritus #it’s done! It’s God damned 1:00!am

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claremal-one · 5 years ago

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Will South Carolina Be Biden’s Firewall After All?

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.

sarahf (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): With just one day before the South Carolina primary on Saturday, former Vice President Joe Biden has a 14 in 15 shot at winning the most votes in South Carolina, according to our forecast. He is a heavy favorite and is expected to win 39 percent of the vote, on average.

But a lot of Biden’s gains in South Carolina, both in our forecast and our polling average, have come in the last several days as polls following Nevada and Tuesday night’s debate have started to trickle in. Prior to this week, things had looked pretty close in South Carolina, and the model even had Sanders in the lead there prior to the Nevada caucuses.

So Galen, you’re actually on the ground in South Carolina. What are you seeing and hearing?

galen (Galen Druke, podcast producer and reporter): For now, it looks like Biden has managed to reverse the trends of the past couple weeks of Sen. Bernie Sanders and billionaire Tom Steyer gaining support — in particular black support — here in South Carolina. A Monmouth poll just came out today showing Biden up by 20 points and winning black voters by almost 30 points.

But to give you some on-the-ground color for what it’s like: I spent yesterday morning at the National Action Network’s Ministers’ Breakfast at Mount Moriah Missionary Baptist Church, a large black church in North Charleston, and what I observed in both speaking with attendees and observing the crowd’s reaction was that Biden was far and away the favorite of the candidates that spoke.

In the afternoon, I went to a Sanders rally in North Charleston that — while more diverse than his New Hampshire rallies — was still very white for a state where 60 percent of the Democratic electorate is black.

geoffrey.skelley (Geoffrey Skelley, elections analyst): Yeah, Galen, that lines up with some of what I found going through South Carolina polls after my visit to the state a week and a half ago. Sanders has often led Biden among white voters in the polls, but Biden leads among black voters, which is very important. The margins for each candidate could decide whether the race is close or not, though.

While I was there, it seemed like Biden might be in trouble, yet some recent polls show him with a more comfortable lead. That might come from Steyer fading after Nevada, though it’s unclear.

sarahf: Galen is right that that Monmouth poll is a really strong point in Biden’s favor, but I guess I’ve been kind of surprised by how much overall support Biden’s lost since Iowa. Granted, this is from an average of national polls, but the fact that the gap between Biden and Sanders’s support among black Americans has closed so dramatically in recent weeks makes me wonder how overwhelming the support will be for Biden on Saturday.

clare.malone (Clare Malone, senior political writer): Voters love a winner! 2016 taught us that. His weaker showings have redounding effects.

sarahf: That’s true, but I have to imagine the storyline to watch on Saturday will be how Biden does with black voters. And I’m curious how this plays out across age, given Biden’s downturn since Iowa (although maybe last-minute surge now). Because one thing that has divided voter choice overall — including black voters — is age.

Do we think we’ll see that kind of age split in South Carolina? Or because it’s a more conservative southern state, maybe not as much as, say, a state like California?

galen: Yeah, Sarah, when it comes to the generational divide, you’re right. In 2016, Sanders pulled even with Clinton among black voters under the age of 30, even though she won almost 80 percent of the black vote overall.

One thing to keep in mind, though, is that young people don’t vote at the same rates as older voters, especially in primaries, and that will probably be true here in South Carolina as well.

geoffrey.skelley: Right, Galen. A plus for Biden is that most voters will be older. In South Carolina’s 2016 Democratic primary, 65 percent of voters were 45 years or older, according to the exit poll. So even if Sanders can gin up younger voter turnout some — and it’s unclear whether he’s really been doing that so far — the electorate will likely lean toward older voters.

sarahf: On the point of Biden’s mediocre performances so far, how have folks been grappling with it, Galen? I know Geoffrey heard a lot from folks earlier this month who said what happened in the first two states didn’t matter to them.

galen: I haven’t heard a lot of people express doubt about Biden based on poor performances in Iowa and New Hampshire. After all, a lot of the support Biden has is based on years of his presence in the state and his association with the country’s first black president. That can’t really be erased in a couple weeks.

Biden has also had a good — or not so bad — week in the news cycle. He came in second in Nevada, he performed fine in the debate, and he got the coveted endorsement of House Majority Whip James Clyburn on Wednesday. By the way, I spoke to Clyburn about why he decided to endorse Biden, and he expressed the same skepticism about Sanders’s candidacy that I’ve heard from other older black voters as well.

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clare.malone: Yes, Galen. I wrote about that this fall when I followed Biden around for a couple months, including in South Carolina. There’s a lot of history and effort that black voters feel Biden has put in, and they’re quite attuned to candidates who might be just dropping in and pandering to them.

geoffrey.skelley: Like quoting Martin Luther King, Jr. in your first response to a debate question, Clare?

galen: Clare, I have talked to a number of voters who have complained about pandering. Voters here are VERY attuned to it and it is SO transparent.

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sarahf: So I think both Clare and Galen are right — despite his national slump among black voters — Biden’s support in South Carolina is pretty sticky. But at the same time … how do you explain Steyer in third in our state average there?!?

Is it noise? Or has Steyer maybe made serious inroads there aside from all the ad buys?

galen: MONEY $$$$$

clare.malone: Steyer’s ads are interesting, since he frames himself not as much as the IMPEACH guy, but as a businessman. That’s more moderate imagery, and the black electorate in the Democratic Party tends to skew moderate. So he’s doing something smart!

But I’m not sure if that’s actually going to translate into like, a third place win. But never say die.

galen: I mean he looks like he’ll come in third, so I take those polls seriously. But I don’t think what happens here for Steyer in South Carolina says much about the rest of the race nationally.

geoffrey.skelley: It’s more than just ad spending, though. I saw Steyer’s organization first-hand, and it seemed pretty impressive. They’ve made huge investments in attracting African American support, not just with typical election pitches but also community engagement. The campaign has held a bunch of block parties, for example. And the campaign seemed to be everywhere. I even talked to one Sanders volunteer at Sanders’s headquarters in Columbia who said he’d knocked on some rural doors, and the only other literature he’d seen at those places was from Steyer’s campaign.

galen: Steyer’s performance in South Carolina, where former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg isn’t on the ballot, could be a little test run for Bloomberg’s approach, though. If Steyer’s support in polls is reflective of his support on Election Day, that could bode decently for Bloomberg. If he underperforms his polls, though that may suggest that support “purchased” through massive ad/campaign spending may not be that sticky.

sarahf: Right, and we saw how well that worked for Steyer in Nevada. He invested heavily and still finished in fifth place.

geoffrey.skelley: It’s worth noting that Steyer got 9 percent of the initial preference vote in Nevada, and he was at 10 percent in our polling average before the caucuses. So I’m not sure that he really underperformed there.

clare.malone: Though I will say, Bloomberg has perhaps purchased his support slightly differently. It’s ads, sure, but he’s also got a massive philanthropic network that local and state officials might have benefitted from and therefore will endorse or campaign for him. That’s probably a little more effective than Steyer’s ad blitz.

galen: Well, Steyer has gotten some notable endorsements in South Carolina, but he’s actually been accused of buying the backing of South Carolinians, which is similar to criticisms that have been lobbed at Bloomberg.

But the big question regarding Steyer in South Carolina, I think, is whether he can really clear the 15 percent threshold to get delegates, cutting into Biden or Sanders’s totals.

sarahf: Editor-in-chief Nate Silver had a piece on Thursday where he gamed out three scenarios for how the South Carolina primary could go: 1) Large Biden win (by 10 percentage points or more); 2) Modest Biden win (by less than 10 points); and then 3) a Sanders win (no margin specified). Essentially, what I took away from that piece is the margin on Saturday really matters for Biden going forward.

Is that fair?

geoffrey.skelley: A big win for Biden resets the media narrative just a few days before Super Tuesday — and that could be big. It might pull back some moderate voters who had been testing out Bloomberg into Biden’s camp.

galen: Yeah, I think the media is ready to tell the Biden comeback story so if it is born out in the actual election results, well, all the better from a narrative perspective.

Also, the Democratic Party apparatus is not super excited about Sanders, to say the least, so if Biden were to win big, they could start to rally around him in a more concrete way if he wins decisively.

clare.malone: And as the Biden people will tell you, they’ve always put a big focus on the trove of Southern states that the March contests will bring.

They think they have a lot of strength there and that they can mine a whole lot of votes.

galen: TEXAS BABY

geoffrey.skelley: Yes, basically if Biden is able to get a large enough win and then do fairly well on Super Tuesday, you might see a rallying effect for Biden as the Sanders alternative. I’ve been keeping track of the endorsement picture in 2020 vs. the 2016 GOP race, and what you saw then was a bunch of GOP Congress members and governors made endorsements after South Carolina and Nevada. That hasn’t happened in the Democratic race post-Nevada, so maybe they’re waiting for South Carolina and Super Tuesday.

clare.malone: That’s fair. I think we’re going to see the big reassessment post-Super Tuesday, to be honest.

South Carolina is the shot, Super Tuesday is the chaser. We’ll see what the Wednesday morning after scene is like.

sarahf: So … this is DEFINITELY a broken-record type question at this point, but where does this leave the other candidates in South Carolina? What’s a good scenario for Buttigieg, Warren or Klobuchar in South Carolina moving forward into Super Tuesday?

Is there one?

galen: A good scenario for those candidates coming out of South Carolina is a clear Biden win because if Sanders wins the race, it’s basically over.

But if Biden does well, that could also weaken Sanders in Minnesota and Massachusetts, states that Klobuchar and Warren hope to win, respectively.

Now, I don’t think that means they will win the majority of delegates or the nomination, but I think they’d be doing their part for the party establishment to block Sanders by winning those two states, because otherwise he would probably win them.

geoffrey.skelley: I mean, breaking the double digits might be a reasonable goal for Buttigieg or Klobuchar? They’re at 7 and 4 percent, respectively, in our South Carolina polling average.

Warren is at 8 percent, so her too, I guess.

galen: I just don’t see it happening for Buttigieg and Klobuchar, but hey I’ve been wrong before.

geoffrey.skelley: Buttigieg and Klobuchar might benefit if more white moderates vote in the Democratic primary. South Carolina uses an open primary, so keep an eye on that. There are Republican-leaning voters who are a little skeptical of Trump in places like suburban Charleston and who helped flip the South Carolina 1st to Democratic Rep. Joe Cunningham in 2018 — that’s a district President Trump carried by 13 points in 2016.

Not to mention, we saw both Klobuchar and Buttigieg do well among white moderates in New Hampshire, for instance, so it wouldn’t be too crazy to think they might replicate that success here.

galen: To Geoff’s point, I went to a diner in North Charleston yesterday and spoke with a white voter who called himself an independent and told me he really likes Buttigieg. However, he told me he would be out of town and didn’t plan on voting. He said he didn’t realize until he heard on the radio the other day that he could vote in the Democratic primary.

geoffrey.skelley: Democracy!

clare.malone: What a recommendation for the radio!

galen: I also spoke to an elderly man wearing a MAGA hat at the diner. A reminder that President Trump is holding a rally in North Charleston in Friday even though there isn’t a Republican primary here.

You might call that … trolling?

sarahf: It would be interesting if Biden does well among black Democrats in South Carolina but not as well among white Democrats (and independents, etc.), and we see a kinda a repeat of what happened in New Hampshire.

Does that undermine Biden’s electability argument at all if he continues to not win over white moderate support?

galen: Well, if the Monmouth poll is any indicator, Biden will do fine with both black and white moderates here.

geoffrey.skelley: If South Carolina does work out that way, Super Tuesday will end up answering that question. Is there a notable increase in Biden’s support among white moderates? Or does he continue to split them with Buttigieg, Klobuchar and, of course, Bloomberg, who debuts that day?

galen: The big question to me is how likely it looks like this is all headed to a contested convention. If it looks that way after Super Tuesday, then the other moderates will have a reason to stay in. But if Biden looks like he can win a majority or strong plurality, I think the party will be like PLEASE GTFO of this race.

And considering that Buttigieg and Klobuchar want to be in good standing with the party, they will probably oblige.

I have no idea about Bloomberg, though.

geoffrey.skelley: It was so clear that Clinton was going to win easily in South Carolina in 2016 that I don’t recall people making much of the fact that there were only three days separating South Carolina from Super Tuesday last time around. She was the favorite for the nomination and was going to win the Palmetto State in a walk. This time, though, the favorite for the nomination — Sanders — is behind in South Carolina, and as Nate wrote, a big Biden win could alter the race’s trajectory to some extent. But once again, there are just three days between these events, so how South Carolina affects things is more uncertain.

sarahf: So how important, then, is South Carolina for the rest of the race? To me, it feels like the stakes are higher than in the first three states, because it really is a question now of whether Biden’s campaign remains viable, right?

galen: So, I think South Carolina will help shape the narrative of the race going forward, but like Iowa and New Hampshire, South Carolina is actually not very representative of the Democratic party demographically. There are only five states in the country where the Democratic electorate is majority black — South Carolina being one of them. (Nationally, black voters make up about 20 to 25 percent of the Democratic electorate.)

Also, South Carolina is an overwhelmingly Republican state — 17 points more Republican, according to FiveThirtyEight’s partisan lean metric. So, in some ways, if Biden does well there, that doesn’t necessarily mean he can do well across the rest of the country.

geoffrey.skelley: It seems like Biden will most likely win South Carolina, but if it’s a pretty narrow win, that could be a sign of weakness that doesn’t convince voters who are still considering Bloomberg or Buttigieg or Klobuchar to jump ship and come over to him on Super Tuesday.

If Biden does win by a big margin, though, that could make his campaign far more viable in the long run by winning over some of those voters looking at other moderate alternatives.

As Galen said, South Carolina may not be that representative of the Democratic Party, but it’s certainly pretty important for Biden’s long-term hope of being the leading Sanders alternative.

clare.malone: South Carolina will prime the tank for Super Tuesday, so it’s a really important set-up. If Warren, for instance, finishes low again, perhaps even lower than Klobuchar, and then performs spottily on Super Tuesday, I really wonder if her campaign is over. A sad political story of steady rise and precipitous fall.

Especially if he has a particularly strong showing, I think Biden could potentially set the table for a comeback of sorts (or maybe a campaign to tie or a “no one wins”). But as we’ve said and written before, this whole thing is Sanders’s race to lose.

from Clare Malone – FiveThirtyEight https://ift.tt/2TgPxBO via https://ift.tt/1B8lJZR

#clare malone #clarethings

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theliberaltony · 5 years ago

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via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.

So Galen, you’re actually on the ground in South Carolina. What are you seeing and hearing?

While I was there, it seemed like Biden might be in trouble, yet some recent polls show him with a more comfortable lead. That might come from Steyer fading after Nevada, though it’s unclear.

clare.malone (Clare Malone, senior political writer): Voters love a winner! 2016 taught us that. His weaker showings have redounding effects.

Do we think we’ll see that kind of age split in South Carolina? Or because it’s a more conservative southern state, maybe not as much as, say, a state like California?

One thing to keep in mind, though, is that young people don’t vote at the same rates as older voters, especially in primaries, and that will probably be true here in South Carolina as well.

geoffrey.skelley: Like quoting Martin Luther King, Jr. in your first response to a debate question, Clare?

galen: Clare, I have talked to a number of voters who have complained about pandering. Voters here are VERY attuned to it and it is SO transparent.

Is it noise? Or has Steyer maybe made serious inroads there aside from all the ad buys?

galen: MONEY $$$$$

But I’m not sure if that’s actually going to translate into like, a third place win. But never say die.

galen: I mean he looks like he’ll come in third, so I take those polls seriously. But I don’t think what happens here for Steyer in South Carolina says much about the rest of the race nationally.

sarahf: Right, and we saw how well that worked for Steyer in Nevada. He invested heavily and still finished in fifth place.

But the big question regarding Steyer in South Carolina, I think, is whether he can really clear the 15 percent threshold to get delegates, cutting into Biden or Sanders’s totals.

Is that fair?

galen: Yeah, I think the media is ready to tell the Biden comeback story so if it is born out in the actual election results, well, all the better from a narrative perspective.

clare.malone: And as the Biden people will tell you, they’ve always put a big focus on the trove of Southern states that the March contests will bring.

They think they have a lot of strength there and that they can mine a whole lot of votes.

galen: TEXAS BABY

clare.malone: That’s fair. I think we’re going to see the big reassessment post-Super Tuesday, to be honest.

South Carolina is the shot, Super Tuesday is the chaser. We’ll see what the Wednesday morning after scene is like.

Is there one?

galen: A good scenario for those candidates coming out of South Carolina is a clear Biden win because if Sanders wins the race, it’s basically over.

But if Biden does well, that could also weaken Sanders in Minnesota and Massachusetts, states that Klobuchar and Warren hope to win, respectively.

geoffrey.skelley: I mean, breaking the double digits might be a reasonable goal for Buttigieg or Klobuchar? They’re at 7 and 4 percent, respectively, in our South Carolina polling average.

Warren is at 8 percent, so her too, I guess.

galen: I just don’t see it happening for Buttigieg and Klobuchar, but hey I’ve been wrong before.

Not to mention, we saw both Klobuchar and Buttigieg do well among white moderates in New Hampshire, for instance, so it wouldn’t be too crazy to think they might replicate that success here.

geoffrey.skelley: Democracy!

clare.malone: What a recommendation for the radio!

You might call that … trolling?

Does that undermine Biden’s electability argument at all if he continues to not win over white moderate support?

galen: Well, if the Monmouth poll is any indicator, Biden will do fine with both black and white moderates here.

And considering that Buttigieg and Klobuchar want to be in good standing with the party, they will probably oblige.

I have no idea about Bloomberg, though.

If Biden does win by a big margin, though, that could make his campaign far more viable in the long run by winning over some of those voters looking at other moderate alternatives.

As Galen said, South Carolina may not be that representative of the Democratic Party, but it’s certainly pretty important for Biden’s long-term hope of being the leading Sanders alternative.

#IFTTT #Politics – FiveThirtyEight #politics #538 #Sarah Frostenson #Clare Malone #Galen Druke and Ge

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recentanimenews · 5 years ago

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From Mesopotamia to Mesoamerica: The Real History Behind Fate/Grand Order: Babylonia’s Heroic Spirits

Out of all the Fate anime, Fate/Grand Order has far and away the most servants. Babylonia alone has a massive cast of historical and mythological figures from around the world, many from some of humanity’s oldest myths. From Latin America to the Middle East, Babylonia features Servants from every walk of life you can imagine and quite a few you might not have heard of! With so many names to keep track of, it can be tough to remember what legends all of these Servants came from, so we’ve put together a handy guide to who these heroes are and what legends they come from.

Read on to find out where each of these Servants hails from historically and how their Fate personalities stack up to the real legends that inspired them!

**Watch out for spoilers ahead!**

Gilgamesh

First up is a character you might be familiar with from other Fate anime: the King of Heroes himself, Gilgamesh. Gilgamesh (also known as Bilgamesh) is an interesting one since he’s the only Servant here who’s both historical and mythological. There very likely was a man named Gilgamesh who ruled the city of Uruk about 4,500 years ago (he’s really that ancient), although most of what we know about the details of his reign comes from The Epic of Gilgamesh, a collection of stories from about 1,000 years later. The Gilgamesh of the epic is a powerful but tyrannical king who the gods decide to humble by creating Enkidu to act as his opponent. Instead, the two become close friends and go on many adventures together until Gilgamesh insults the goddess Ishtar and kills the divine bull the gods send as retribution, driving them to kill Enkidu as punishment.

Mourning Enkidu’s death and struggling with the thought of his own, Gilgamesh goes to the underworld to seek out the herb of immortality, only to have it eaten by a snake right after he retrieves it. The Gilgamesh we see in Babylonia is him as he was after his journey to the underworld: cocky and arrogant, but tempered by a sense of duty to the people of Uruk. Now that’s someone who deserves the title of “King of Heroes!”

Enkidu/Kingu

Next we have Enkidu, an integral part of every Gilgamesh legend. Enkidu is described in the epic as a powerful, hairy man, radically different from the genderless shapeshifter in Babylonia. What remains the same throughout, however, is their close friendship with Gilgamesh. Though they were initially meant to be enemies, Enkidu and Gilgamesh quickly became inseparable, going on all sorts of adventures until Gilgamesh’s ill-fated encounter with Ishtar ultimately led to Enkidu’s death.

Kingu, the person in Babylonia who uses Enkidu’s likeness, is completely different; they’re cruel, violent, and completely loyal to Gorgon. The mythological Kingu was a child of the primordial goddess Tiamat who was killed alongside her by the god Marduk and used to create humanity. This explains Kingu’s rage, although they seem to have something of Enkidu still hanging around…

Ishtar

Ishtar (also known as Inanna) is the goddess of love, sex, war, political power, and a whole host of related concepts, as well as the patron deity of Uruk. Her worship even predates The Epic of Gilgamesh by over a thousand years and continued until at least the 19th century! For such an enduring goddess, Ishtar wasn’t always the nicest of gods. She destroyed a mountain for challenging her, tried entering the underworld to prove her strength, and indirectly brought about Enkidu’s death after Gilgamesh rejected her advances. Even so, as a goddess of both love and war, she was widely revered in ancient Sumer, as well as the numerous civilizations that succeeded it over the centuries.

Babylonia’s version of Ishtar is actually pretty faithful to the myth: she watches over Uruk as a guardian deity, but is also self-centered and capricious, although that’s tempered by Rin’s good nature shining through. Without that keeping her grounded, it’s easy to see how this same person could cause so much destruction, especially with the power she’s displayed as a war goddess. There aren’t any stories about her hair color changing at night, though…

Gorgon

If you know anything about Greek mythology, you’ve probably heard of the Gorgon Medusa. (Content warning for mention of sexual assault.) Medusa was a snake-haired demigoddess who, after being raped in Athena’s temple, was cursed to turn anyone who looked at her to stone. Having become a monster, she was later killed by the Greek hero Perseus. Medusa can very easily be read as a tragic character, a victim of circumstance and capricious gods. Her myth gives her every reason to hate humans, which perfectly explains her portrayal in Babylonia. Her class, Avenger, is reserved for Servants who are defined by a grudge they can’t let go of, a source of hatred that drives their every action. Who would fit this better than a demigoddess who was repeatedly wronged and turned into a monster?

What’s more, Gorgon the Servant has borrowed power from the Sumerian goddess Tiamat, a primordial goddess of saltwater and chaos who gave birth to many of the other gods, only for them to later usurp her husband and kill her, creating the world from her body. As a combination of two deities with grudges against humanity, it’s no wonder that Gorgon poses such a threat to Uruk.

Jaguar Warrior

Unlike the other gods here, Jaguar Warrior isn’t based on one specific god as much as a general representation of the Maya jaguar deities. The Maya (as well as many other cultures from the region) had numerous myths and gods associated with the jaguar, the most prominent being Kinich Ahau, the sun god who also rules over the underworld at night. Kinich Ahau was also a god of war, which explains Jaguar Warrior’s fighting skills.

Of course, the Servant we meet in Babylonia takes most of her personality from Taiga Fujimura, Shirou’s teacher in Fate/Stay Night, so she doesn’t act particularly divine here.

Quetzalcoatl

Though he’s fairly obscure now, Quetzalcoatl is a name that few ancient Mesoamericans wouldn’t have heard of. Quetzalcoatl (known as Kukulcán to the Maya) was worshipped by many civilizations throughout the region, although the Aztecs’ beliefs are the best documented now. To them, he was the god of dawn, dusk, air, and learning, and was heavily associated with Venus, which was known as the evening star. Some stories even present him as the creator of humanity. The prominence of his myths explains why Babylonia’s version is so strong, even compared to other gods like Ishtar. Aside from that and her flying snakes (Quetzalcoatl literally means “feathered serpent”), Fate’s interpretation is pretty different from the myth.

Aside from her gender being different, her personality largely comes from her fondness for Mexican wrestling, known as lucha libre. From her wrestling moves to her love of going all out in battle, Quetzalcoatl has fully embraced the lucha spirit that developed in the land that once worshipped her. Her portrayal here may not be particularly accurate, but that doesn’t detract in the slightest from her charm!

Merlin

Merlin is the sort of Servant whose fame precedes him. Whenever you have a tale about King Arthur, Merlin's going to inevitably show up. Ironically enough, Merlin's legends originally had nothing to do with King Arthur. His earliest stories come from Medieval Welsh folktales about Myrddin Wyllt (Myrddin the Wild), a mad prophet who was said to live in the wilds with animals. The writer Geoffrey of Monmouth borrowed from this legend when he was creating some of the earliest Arthurian stories and turned Myrddin into the prophet Merlin. As more people added to the legend, this version of Merlin evolved into the wizard we see in today's Arthurian legends.

In the later legends, Merlin is the child of an incubus and a human woman, endowing him with supernatural powers and the ability to see the future. He uses his abilities to guide and sometimes manipulate Arthur along his path to become king, which is the portrayal that Fate emphasizes. This Merlin embodies the fae trickster side of the character, generally helping out but keeping certain secrets of his own. Even his downfall, brought about by his angering the Lady of the Lake, is pretty close to the actual legends. Tricks aside, Merlin has already proven to be an invaluable ally, and no doubt will again soon enough.

Ushiwakamaru

One of only two Japanese Servants in Babylonia, Ushiwakamaru is also one of the most famous warriors in Japanese history. Ushiwakamaru was the childhood name of Minamoto no Yoshitsune, a famous general from 12th century Japan who helped establish his (Yoshitsune was actually a man) older brother Yoritomo as Shogun, only to be killed by Yoritomo’s forces after the latter grew jealous of Yoshitsune’s fame. Yoshitsune was a military genius, winning battle after battle in Yoritomo’s name, including the famous Battle of Dan-no-ura, which was also the inspiration for one of Ushiwakamaru’s Noble Phantasms.

Even today, Yoshitsune is an integral part of Japanese pop culture, appearing in numerous films, plays, novels, and anime over the years. With such an enduring legend, it’s no wonder Fujimaru admired her so much. Her gender may not be historically accurate, but her fighting skills certainly live up to her legend.

Musashibou Benkei

Benkei is as integral to the story of Yoshitsune as Enkidu is to The Epic of Gilgamesh. Benkei was a famous warrior monk who swore loyalty to a young Minamoto no Yoshitsune after losing to him in a duel. From then on, Benkei accompanied Yoshitsune through thick and thin, even staying loyal when both were on the run from Yoritomo. If anyone doubted his loyalty, Benkei’s death put that to rest. Trapped in a castle and surrounded by enemy forces, Benkei chose to defend the bridge into the castle while Yoshitsune went inside to commit ritual suicide.

Benkei ultimately killed over 300 enemy troops by himself before dying to arrow wounds. What’s more, the survivors didn’t even know he was dead until they got in close because he straight up died standing! Of course, this Benkei is a little different, being another one of Yoshitsune’s retainers who took on the name after the original Benkei’s death. Even so, he may yet share some of the original Benkei's valor.

Leonidas

Last but certainly not least is Leonidas I. He was the king of ancient Sparta who led the Greek forces against the Persian army at the Battle of Thermopylae, and later stayed behind with a rear guard of 300 Spartans and about 1000 other Greek troops to allow the remaining Greek forces to retreat. Though Leonidas and his men were ultimately killed, it came at the cost of 20,000 Persians and allowed the other Greeks to successfully retreat and regroup.

Babylonia’s Leonidas lives up to that spirit, holding the line against Gorgon and her demonic beasts even at the cost of his life. His Noble Phantasm, Thermopylae Enomotia, even summons forth the Spartans who fought with him, which proved to be a powerful weapon against Gorgon. Though he’s gone now, Leonidas’ valor once again proves why his story is still remembered after over 2000 years.

Who’s your favorite Servant? Let us know in the comments below and don’t forget to watch the latest Babylonia every Saturday!

Watch Fate/Grand Order Absolute Demonic Front: Babylonia!

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Skyler loves writing and chatting about anime, and is always ready to gush about the latest One Piece chapter. Read more of his work at his blog apieceofanime.com and follow him on Twitter at Videogamep3.

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