#we are ignoring football schedules for the purposes of this fantasy

[goodmorninglovelies42]

I miss Jamie and Roy and Keeley. I wonder how they’re spending a lazy Sunday. I bet Roy is cooking up a Sunday roast while Keeley and Jamie cuddle and binge some reality tv.

Jamie will wander into the kitchen later and try to steal some snacks and some kisses. Roy pretends to be annoyed, but he can’t keep the fond look out of his eyes when he playfully scolds Jamie even while returning the kisses.

Keeley tries to sneak some work in while Jamie’s gone to the kitchen, but Roy and Jamie both effectively distract her when they return to the living room. With kisses sure, but also, Roy draws her head down to his lap and strokes her hair while Jamie gives her a foot rub.

[theculturedmarxist]

Hi there, fellow leftypol dirtbag. Might I ask, what was your journey into leftism?

I grew up in a conservative household. My parents were (and still are I suppose) two Reaganite Republicans and I absorbed all that shit as a child. I supported George Bush 2 and Iraq War 2. I believed all that bullshit about hard work and boot straps, you know, the old fantasy about employers rewarding hard work with commensurate compensation, etc. I wasn’t very sympathetic for black people, the poor, queers, or any of the other people on the Rep’s shit list.

That began to change when I changed high schools. Instead of the upper-middle class, mostly White school I had been going to (and been miserable at), I transferred to an early college. It was a school for kids that, like me, didn’t fit into the regular school system for one reason or another. There were kids there like me who had various social or emotional dysfunctions, but also kids that were there because of who and where they were. It might shock you to find that queer kids and black kids didn’t have the easiest of times in the public school system of the Southern United States.

It was a slow transition, but my views changed. At first I had those idiotic, bigoted views, like that gay guys were a threat to me physically or sexually on account of their orientation. I thought it was morally wrong, blah blah blah, all that ridiculous rigamarole. Then I met some of these people and learned how foolish that kind of thinking was. These people were intelligent and kind, inventive, interesting, and not at all the kind of people that I felt I needed to be worried about. It wasn’t an immediate transformation, but it was the first step in my “deprogramming.”

Looking back, I’m not even sure I would describe my feelings towards these people as “hate” or “fear” so much as “resentment.” I was still trapped in the false mindset of the “just world” fallacy. I was miserable with myself and my place in life, and deluded into thinking that if there was a problem then it was either inherent in myself or because I wasn’t behaving in the right way. At the time I had at least some idea of the oppression and persecution homosexuals and Blacks (for example) experienced. I was starving myself with self restraint, and spiritually mutilating myself in trying to “fix” what I thought was wrong with me. If I was unhappy or unsuccessful or whatever, then it must have been my fault, and if that was the case then it was on me to change myself, “correct” my behavior, and get right with God (literally and in a manner of speaking). Applying that same logic, the problems Blacks and Gays were experiencing were their fault as well, for insisting on being Gay, “out and proud,” or “actin’ Black,” or whatever, instead of how they “should” have been acting. It felt like an insult. Here I was, drowning in my own suffering and misery, and trying like hell to purge whatever defect I imagined was the source. There they were, embracing what I imagined to be the source of their own oppression, and treating the world like it was what needed to change. At the time, there was no way I could comprehend all of this. Even if I could have understood it intellectually, I doubt I would have been able to see it through my ideological delusions.

My ideological development after high school was halting at best. I wasn’t in any shape to live and function on my own, and my first stab at university didn’t go very well. Eventually, I moved back home and got a job, which is what had the most significant effect on me I think. All the nonsense I’d been fed about the fairness of competition and workplace ideals quickly went out the fucking window. I had worked some while I was at university, when I naively thought that student employment at a school would emphasize the student over the employment part. Through the alchemy of Republican logic, it wasn’t the work or employer that was to blame, but the fact that the school effectively had a monopoly. If the Free Market™ was able to decide, no doubt I’d have had a fairer boss and better pay and so on.

But that job wasn’t an anomaly, and neither was the next one, or the next. I had been brought up being taught that hard, honest work would be rewarded with good, honest pay, but no matter how hard I worked or where, it was always the same shit: minimum wage, %2 pay raise, shitty schedules, worse managers, awful bosses, and customers that were just the worst. You didn’t matter. It didn’t matter how you were being treated or mistreated, the customer was your master and you better remember to smile while you’re licking their balls.

Still, even with all of this, I bought the lie that it was just the type of work that was the problem. Retail work is for kids, right? They aren’t serious jobs. I saved up some money while taking CC classes, and eventually went back to university. The second time things went better. Somewhere along the way I’d graduated from Republican to Libertarian™, but that was starting to lose its appeal as well as it became apparent that it was functioning on the same defective logic as its Republican counterpart. I didn’t have any faith in Obama or the Democrats, and being an ignorant American I thought the three were my only options.

My family was what would be described in American terms as “mid-to-lower-middle class,” or you could probably say “comfortable.” Both parents worked, and while we were never “rich” I don’t recall ever having to go without anything essential. My parents were both Baby Boomers, and their parents all more or less came from nothing. To their credit, my parents worked hard to provide the things for me which they didn’t have as children themselves. They did everything they could to help me succeed, but they could still only help.

Paying for school was something that fell mostly on me in the form of loans and grants. Classes were going well for the most part, but my expenses were outstripping my aid. I got a job, but it didn’t help matters much. The pay was lousy, and the hours were from six at night until two in the morning. It started killing my grades and ruining my health. The stress of school and work and financial concerns started to get to me physically.

All while this is going on is the backdrop of the financial crisis. The banks that were responsible got billions of dollars of taxpayer money, while those same taxpayers were getting foreclosed on by those same banks. State services were getting slashed to the bone left, right, and center. There was suddenly no money for unemployment insurance or health benefits for those that needed them, no money for teacher training, or grants for students. There was apparently virtually unlimited cash for the military and the two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan that dragged on and on. There was plenty to go around to these wealthy executives that created this financial crisis that lost regular people hundreds of millions of dollars in their life savings and retirement plans. This paralleled the situation at my school. The university was flush with cash. Tuition was higher than ever. They had just finished a multi-million dollar building that served no purpose other than to serve as a fancy amenity to lure in out of state students. They’d even invested millions of dollars into their football program and completely renovated the athletic stadium. The chancellor lived in a mansion on campus and drove a convertible sports car. They weren’t hurting for money.

I was, though. I came to the conclusion that I’d have to take classes in the morning and work in the afternoon, and so I went about withdrawing to make space in my schedule for it. Come to find however that you’re only allowed to drop three courses in your educational career, which no one had bothered to tell me. I was able to drop one class, but I had ignorantly spent my other two mulligans the previous semester. No problem, the Registrar tells me, just get your professor, chair, and dean to sign off and you can drop the class. Okay, swell. Professor signs off, department chair signs off, and then it takes a week for the dean to get back to me. Financial hardship isn’t a compelling reason to drop the class. Sorry! I try to explain to her my situation, that if I can’t start making money then I’ll be out on the street, and she tells me to go pound sand. I’d busted my ass working to “get my life back on track,” to go back to school, get an education and all that, like I was “supposed to.” The school didn’t give a shit. I was nothing to them. They had no interest in helping me out or seeing me stay. And why would they? Sixty percent of incoming Freshmen left after their first year, and that was their target demographic. Entice out-of-state students, get them to dump a bunch of money into the school, then kick them to the curb when they can’t for one reason or another hack it. There’s more and more desperate kids every year trying to get that diploma and the golden ticket it promises them. If they don’t like being farmed for revenue, then fuck ‘em.

It was around this time that I got involved with Occupy Wall Street. It was there that I met for the first time actual Communists, and was introduced however superficially to Marxism and Anarchism. It wouldn’t be until afterward that I would get my real education on them, though. I guess I kind of conform to the cliche of becoming a college Communist. A professor of mine knew about my difficulties and my developing political views, and asked if I’d be interested in borrowing his copy of the Manifesto. I did, not knowing what to expect. Then I read the words that changed my life forever:

“The history of all hitherto existing society is the history of class struggle.”

It struck me like a bolt out of the blue. I’d always been interested in history, but I treated it as just a long, interesting story. It had always puzzled me because there were innumerable instances of illogical or just plain stupid behavior in the people we studied in school. Things just happened the way they happened, because... well, that’s just how things were, or people are. Every war, injustice, and atrocity in history was because of faulty human nature. People struggle because of the inherent evil inside all men. You know, more ideological bullshit.

Suddenly, though, everything made sense. It was like all the pieces had been in place, but it wasn’t until that bit of context was added that it made anything like coherent sense. It wasn’t only history, but modern politics, too. I couldn’t understand what made Republicans do the objectively awful things that they were doing, or why, or the apparent idiocy of the Democrats, and why they couldn’t seem to do anything right however obvious it might have appeared to do so. Marx shined a light on everything for me. It was like the world suddenly shifted into focus.

After this, for various reasons I left school again, ended up moving back home and getting another job. During this time the political awakening I’d experienced lay dormant for quite a while as I dealt with other developments in my life. Actually, it was Gamergate that was the impetus to get deeper into Leftism. I was still frequently visiting 4chan at the time and watched as the drama developed. I didn’t like Moot banning the topic of Zoe Quinn etc, and ended up migrating to 8chan, which briefly exhibited a sort of Renaissance of the sort of board culture that had either been dead or dying on 4chan at the time. It didn’t take long for the nazis, racists, and other brands of /pol/cuck shithead to drive off anyone decent though, and every board just became a different flavor of /pol/. Complaining about it naturally elicited a chorus of “go back to /leftypol/.” I didn’t have any interest in /leftypol/ at the time and actually mostly avoided it. Online politics at the best of times is hardly enjoyable, and I wasn’t very interested in any kind of /Xpol/, using my impression of the original as a guide.

I had dabbled somewhat in online Leftism previously, exploring labor-related subs on Reddit, like r/iww, r/socialism, r/communism, etc. My experience with r/soc almost turned me entirely off of Leftism, though. I got banned for calling Hillary Clinton a cunt, which only seemed to confirm that SJW/Demcuck reputation that followed other self described “socialists.” I didn’t want any part of a group that would either defend Hillary, or try and control what I said or how I said it. I’d just about written off Socialism entirely when on a whim I decided to take a look at /leftypol/ just to see what all the fuss was about.

I can’t help but feel kind of silly attributing such a major, life-changing moment to going to an obscure image board on such a skeevy site, but it did. It had the rough-and-tumble atmosphere of 4chan in its day as well as a substantial number of posters that knew what the fuck they were about. For a while I was simply hooked. Every time I f5ed, I learned something new about Socialism and Communism. There were in depth discussions on Communist theory and its various theorists and proponents. Not only where there mainstream anarchists and marxists, but representatives of (or simply people knowledgeable of) different currents, traditions, and theories. Posters busied themselves making reading lists and sharing links to resources and ideas. Back when there was still a solid core of /lit/ refugees and philosophy majors, there were constantly discussions on Zizek and Chomsky, Stirner and Nietzsche, Proudhon and Marx, Lukacs, Baudrillard, Gramsci, Bordiga, and on and on. The notion that “socialist” just meant “hardcore Democrat” was instantly and totally obliterated, and I knew that I was a Socialist and would be until I died.

And here I am, still trying to learn and educate myself, and help others with what I’ve learned, for whatever it’s worth.

[yahoo-roto-arcade-blog]

Juggernaut Index, No. 24: As Trubisky goes, so go the Bears

If Mitchell Trubisky can make a leap in his second season, the Chicago Bears offense can get fun in a hurry. (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

The Chicago Bears have won nine league championships and 749 regular season games since the franchise was founded in 1920. Twenty-seven former Bears are enshrined in the Pro Football Hall of Fame and 69 have been selected as first-team All-Pros. The names of the greatest players in team history — Payton, Sayers, Butkus, Nagurski — are synonymous with excellence at their respective positions.

And yet somehow, as this franchise enters its 99th season, the Bears’ all-time leading passer is Jay Christopher Cutler.

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In fact, Cutler holds pretty much every significant career Chicago Bears record at the game’s most important position, including passing yardage, completions, passer rating, completion percentage and touchdowns. Remarkably, no quarterback in the history of this franchise has managed to throw for 4000 yards in a single season. Erik Kramer’s 3838 yards back in 1995 remains the team’s top mark. Jacksonville, Carolina and Tampa Bay have all had multiple 4000-yard passers while Chicago is still waiting for its first.

The Bears finished last in the NFL in passing last year and 30th in total offense, so things can only get better under the team’s new head coach. Matt Nagy arrives in Chicago after spending the previous decade climbing the coaching hierarchy under Andy Reid, first in Philadelphia and then in Kansas City. Nagy served as offensive coordinator of the league’s sixth highest-scoring offense last season, plus he oversaw the mid-career breakout performance of Alex Smith. There’s plenty to like in his coaching record. Nagy quickly hired former University of Oregon head coach Mark Helfrich as his OC, which adds another layer of fun.

When the Nagy/Helfrich offense is fully operational for Chicago, things should get legitimately interesting. It’s not crazy to think this team’s second-year quarterback has the potential to deliver the most productive passing season in team history, finally dislodging Kramer from the record book. Cutler’s career marks should not survive Mitchell Trubisky’s second contract.

Trubisky is guaranteed to make a substantial leap in 2018

It feels relatively safe to predict a Trubisky surge, because the team asked so little of him last season. We would say that John Fox and his staff kept training wheels on the offense, but that’s an insult to all the brave kids out there riding big-boy bikes with extra wheels for safety. At least those kids are moving forward. Chicago’s offense was basically inert in 2017. Trubisky ranked dead-last in the NFL among qualified starters in both deep attempts per game (2.5) and air yards (98.2) according to Player Profiler. This offense took no shots and gained nothing.

Whatever else happens this year, Trubisky and friends will definitely play a more entertaining game:

#Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky with us on @SiriusXMNFL now: “We’re going to spread the field and definitely use all our weapons.” Will see things from Matt Nagy’s #Chiefs days, have “twists and tricks” from Mark Helfrich/Oregon, mix in some tempo … more complex than he’s used to.

— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) July 2, 2018

Nagy was a big believer in Trubisky’s talent during the pre-draft process two years ago, and, by all accounts, the pair has clicked this offseason. Concepts and formations should feel similar to the QB’s college offense, and the system should generally take advantage of his live arm and dual-threat ability. Nagy has indicated the playbook will be 70-80 percent similar to what KC ran last year, with a few added flourishes. It was clear enough last season, despite the timidity of Chicago’s offense, that Trubisky has the necessary physical traits to thrive as a pro. His receiving corps is suddenly loaded with versatile athletes, too. Trubisky is essentially free in fantasy drafts (ADP 164.1, QB24). He’s worth targeting in super-flex and best-ball formats.

Let’s try to remember, however, that year-to-year continuity is critical to success in the NFL, and Chicago has none of it. That’s a small concern. This team has a first-year head coach working with a second-year QB, installing a new scheme. Every key member of the receiving corps is new. Bears fans and fantasy owners will need to be patient with this group. We should expect hiccups in the opening weeks.

OK, let’s meet the new receivers

Chicago revamped its receiving depth chart in a massive (and necessary) way during the offseason, both via free agency and the draft. The team gave a total of $61 million guaranteed to three veteran pass-catchers, then invested a second-round pick in a young receiver. We can safely ignore roster holdovers like Kevin White and Josh Bellamy in fantasy drafts. The new guys are clearly going to dominate the targets in this offense.

Allen Robinson inked a three-year deal with Chicago back in March, and he’ll be 12 months removed from his ACL injury when the season opens. Robinson was able to put in work during OTAs and appears on schedule for training camp. There’s been zero negative news on him, only negative spin from a few fantasy voices. At Robinson’s best, he’s a true No. 1 wideout with terrific red-zone skills, a player with ideal size (6-foot-3) and leaping ability. He was enormously productive at the collegiate level and he produced an 80-1400-14 line in his second pro season. Robinson’s efficiency plummeted in his third year (73-883-6 on 151 targets), but disentangling his performance from the horrors of Blake Bortles is no simple thing.

Robinson is a serious talent with an excellent history, and it’s reasonable to expect 75 receptions and 1100 yards in a healthy season. His draft price (ADP 47.1, WR19) reflects our collective optimism about this team’s offense, tempered by the expected ACL recovery worries. If camp reports on Robinson are positive, there’s a decent chance his ADP will climb 3-4 spots.

Trey Burton is the sleeper TE you need, fantasy owner. (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

Trey Burton landed with the Bears on a four-year, $32 million contract, and it kinda feels like we can pencil his name into the Pro Bowl roster right now. Assuming Trubisky achieves a reasonable degree of competence this season, Burton should feast. He’ll play a version of the tight end/wide receiver hybrid role that helped turn Travis Kelce into a star for the Chiefs. To be clear, Burton doesn’t have Kelce’s size or his exact athletic profile, but he has good hands and 4.6-speed. He’s a rough assignment for any linebacker or DB. Few defenses will have the personnel needed to check all of Chicago’s receiving threats. Burton should see 90-100 targets, a significant total for a tight end. He has a clear path to a top-six positional finish in any fantasy format.

Rookie Anthony Miller delivered back-to-back 95-catch, 1400-yard seasons at Memphis, so he had nothin’ left to prove as a collegiate player. He has an inside/outside skill set and he’s effective at every level of the field. He was a state champ in the 110-meter hurdles as a prep, too. His profile is plenty appealing and he shouldn’t lack opportunities in his first pro season. Miller is a fine late flier in redraft and a top-five-ish receiver in dynasty.

The Bears also signed the blazing fast Taylor Gabriel to a four-year deal, which allows this team to have at least one undersized burner on the field at all times. He and running back Tarik Cohen are both live-wire quick and difficult to contain. Gabriel isn’t likely to produce consistent weekly numbers; he hasn’t caught more than 37 passes in any of his four seasons. But he’ll deliver a handful of big plays, which puts him on the best-ball radar.

Tarik Cohen is a blur

Friends, let’s take a moment to appreciate Cohen’s ridiculousness.

“We’ll have some fun with him,” Nagy recently said.

Here’s hoping it’s true because Cohen’s playmaking ability is rare, even by NFL standards. He’s only 5-foot-6 (if that), but he bulked up this offseason, perhaps in anticipation of a larger role. Cohen handled 140 touches last season, including 53 receptions; it’s not unreasonable to forecast 170 and 65 in the year ahead. He’s compared himself to Tyreek Hill on more than one occasion, and, well … as comps go, it’s not the worst we’ve ever heard. Hill is faster than almost anyone on earth, of course, and clearly a more accomplished receiver. But both players are exceptional all-purpose threats, capable of scoring on any touch. Draft Cohen aggressively in any variety of PPR league.

Jordan Howard remains the featured runner, but…

Almost every time Nagy has mentioned that Howard is still the team’s primary rushing threat, he adds a caveat. Howard has been a notoriously poor receiver, so he’s not yet an every-down, all-situation player. His inability to catch leaves him particularly vulnerable to unfavorable game scripts. When Nagy suggests the Bears will use multiple backs, we need to take him at his word. Cohen’s expected increase in usage will almost certainly take a bite out of Howard’s workload.

However, we shouldn’t forget that Howard is a 225-pound dude who’s rushed for 2435 yards (4.6 YPC) and 15 touchdowns over two NFL seasons. He can play. Howard isn’t the perfect modern running back, but he generally makes great decisions with the ball in his hands. Stylistically, he’s nothing like Cohen, so these backs complement each other well. If Chicago’s offense can simply climb to the middle of the pack in 2018, Howard can again deliver second round value (ADP 18.2). Just please be prepared for a few 11-44-0 duds.

Ultimately, this season of Bears football is about the development of Trubisky and his indoctrination into Nagy’s system and team culture. Trubisky doesn’t need to make a Goff or Wentz-level leap (although that would be [profane] awesome), but he needs to finish the year in total command of his offense. He’s the key to everyone’s fantasy value in Chicago.

2017 Offensive Stats & Ranks

Points per game – 16.5 (29th in NFL) Pass YPG – 175.7 (32) Rush YPG – 111.8 (16) Yards per play – 4.9 (23) Plays per game – 58.4 (31)

Previous Juggernaut Index entries: 32) Buffalo, 31) Miami, 30) NY Jets, 29) Baltimore, 28) Oakland, 27) Cleveland, 26) Indianapolis, 25) Washington, 24) Chicago

Follow the Yahoo fantasy football crew on Twitter: Andy Behrens, Dalton Del Don, Brad Evans, Liz Loza, Scott Pianowski and Tank Williams

[yahoo-roto-arcade-blog]

Juggernaut Index, No. 20: Dolphins offer Jay Ajayi, lesser fantasy pieces

The collaboration between Ryan Tannehill and Adam Gase went as well as anyone could have expected last year. (Photo by Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

The Miami Dolphins broke a seven-year playoff drought in Adam Gase’s first season as head coach, bouncing back impressively from a 1-4 start. The team was eviscerated by Pittsburgh in the Wild Card round, but that shouldn’t diminish the achievement of qualifying for the postseason. An optimistic fan would say this is an ascending franchise led by a clever young coach, anchored by a foundational running back.

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However, a more pessimistic observer might point out that the Dolphins actually finished with a negative point differential last season (-17) and they were fortunate to pull off a series of narrow wins against terrible teams. But [profane] those guys. Let’s not focus on the doubters just now. The fact is, it’s damn tough to win 10 games in the NFL, regardless of a team’s strength of schedule. Miami deserves plenty of credit.

Quarterback Ryan Tannehill established new career bests in completion percentage (67.1), yards per attempt (7.7), passer rating (93.5) and touchdown rate (4.9) last season, but to some extent those numbers were a product of game script. Gase kept his QB in game-manager mode for most of the season, particularly after Miami’s dreadful start. Tannehill attempted only 3.2 deep passes per game last year, one of the lowest rates in the league. The offense’s conservatism didn’t do much to prevent turnovers; Tannehill was intercepted on a career worst 3.1 percent of his attempts. And his season ended in Week 14 due to a partially torn ACL and sprained MCL.

Tannehill’s season ended in Week 14 due to a partially torn ACL and sprained MCL, but he avoided surgery and, according to Gase, he now “moves around fine.” He should be good to go when camp opens.

The essential problem with Tannehill is that, at this stage, he’s well entrenched in the Schaub Zone — or, if you prefer, the Alex Smith Zone. He’s clearly good enough to win regular season games at the controls of a talented offense, yet he’s pretty clearly not good enough to elevate a team from playoff-caliber to Super Bowl challenger. It’s an issue. For fantasy purposes, Tannehill remains only a streaming option for standard league players. He’s the guy you might consider when your usual starting QB is on a bye.

If you want to make the case that Tannehill can make a sudden jump in value, you should build it around the fact that Miami offers a quality receiving corps and year-to-year continuity on offense.

Another year, another round of DeVante Parker hype

Yup, ‘fraid so. Parker possesses size, speed and obvious athletic talent, and he enters his third pro season having been hyped and re-hyped. He made a respectable statistical jump from year one (26-494-3) to year two (56-744-4), and he’s America’s sleeper entering 2017. Miami’s coaches and beat writers have promoted him endlessly, as if they were trying to build up his fantasy trade value. Parker reportedly dedicated himself to better habits, both on and off-field. Fantasy owners aren’t exactly paying an expectant price, at least in Yahoo leagues (ADP 100.7), so he’s a player to covet in the mid-rounds. If his targets were to increase from 90 last year to, say, 120 or 125, he’d almost certainly produce a 1000-yard, 6-TD season. That’s WR2-level performance at the cost of a WR4.

DeVante Parker enters another season as a well-hyped breakout candidate. (Photo by Eric Espada/Getty Images)

If Parker is going to take another step forward, then it will likely happen at the expense of Kenny Stills. It’s tough to imagine Stills repeating his 2016 touchdown total (9) on volume similar to what he saw last season (81 targets). He’s a big-play receiver tied to a small-play passing game, which hardly seems great. No player consistently converts 21 percent of his catches into touchdowns. He can’t be drafted anywhere near his positional finish last season.

Jarvis Landry remains the guy with the most significant workload in this receiving corps, of course. Landry is a legend among the crusty old-timers who still think PPR is a good idea. (We’ve already had that convo around here. It is settled.) He saw 131 targets last season — a decrease from 2016 (165), but still plenty — and finished his season with 94 catches for 1136 yards. He gained the second-most yards after catch among all receivers (612), for what it’s worth. Landry was largely ignored near the goal line, however, seeing just nine red-zone targets and only four inside the 10-yard line. Nothing new there. He’s a player of interest in any format, but the limited TD ceiling clearly hurts him in standard scoring setups.

There’s no fourth wide receiver on the Dolphins’ roster who needs to be targeted in fantasy leagues of any size, so let’s not list the entire crew. Second-year wideout Leonte Carroo is the presumptive No. 4 entering camp; he caught three balls last year. Woo.

Miami acquired tight end Julius Thomas during the offseason and he obviously has a terrific history under Gase, dating back to the Denver days. Coaches have talked up Thomas’ role in a big way…

Clyde Christensen asked what Julius Thomas can add to Dolphins offense: “10, 12 touchdowns. That’s what he added in Denver.”

— Armando Salguero (@ArmandoSalguero) May 6, 2017

…but let’s not pretend he’s stepping into the exact situation he enjoyed with the Broncos. On Tannehill’s best day, he can’t deliver even a bad impression of a vintage Peyton Manning. But Thomas will nonetheless have a role near the goal-line and he’s generally ignored in Yahoo drafts (ADP 128.0). Not a bad late option for those who won’t invest in the early round tight ends. Beware the injury history with Thomas; he’s never appeared in more than 14 games in any season.

OK, what’s the potential for Jay Ajayi?

Ajayi was a revelation last season, even for those of us who kinda/sorta liked him entering the year. He rushed for 1272 yards and eight spikes, averaging 4.9 YPC, and he basically did it all in 12 games. Ajayi was merely a rotational runner until the calendar flipped to October. From the moment he assumed the lead role in Miami’s backfield, he was beastly. Ajayi gashed the Steelers for 204 rushing yards in Week 6, prompting the global community of fantasy experts to declare that A) he was a must-add player, but B) he’d just had a career day, never to be duplicated. The following week, he ran for 214 yards against Buffalo.

Ultimately, Ajayi would finish his season with three games of 200-plus yards, becoming just the fourth player in NFL history to accomplish the feat. You’ve probably heard of the other three backs: Earl Campbell (1980), O.J. Simpson (1973) and Tiki Barber (2005).

Jay Ajayi delivered three 200-yard performances last season, placing him in distinguished company. (Photo by Rich Barnes/Getty Images)

Ajayi ranked second in the league in yards-after-contact per game last year (32.3), behind only Le’Veon Bell (41.4), ahead of Zeke (30.9) and David Johnson (30.4). You’re allowed to fret about the fact that a huge percentage of his total rushing yards were delivered in just three weeks, but, again, the man only served as a featured runner in a dozen games. He topped 70 scrimmage yards eight times last season. He can play. If you like him as a late first-rounder (or a bit earlier), you’ll get no argument from me. He’s begging for a larger workload and Coach Gase is fully on board:

“It’s slowed down for him a lot from where we were last year compared to where we are right now,” Gase said of Ajayi. “The questions he brings up to us are very detailed. We’re really beyond next level questions. They’re really quarterbackish questions. I love the way his intrigue of what’s going on at his position has been outstanding.

“He wants to be a guy that can be counted on for second and third down. He does not want to come off the field. Everyone gets concerned with the amount of carries and his physical style of running and we’ll handle that as we go. But I love the mentality that he has right now. He wants to be a guy that’s relied on right now. He’s our bell cow running back. At the same time he’s our top third-down guy and red area and two-minute guy.”

Don’t try to tell me you’ve seen a more bullish quote from a coach this offseason.

So, to answer the question posed in the subhead above, Ajayi’s potential is 2000 scrimmage yards. His situation is rare. Kenyan Drake and Damien Williams will battle for handcuff duties during the preseason, but neither is a threat to Ajayi’s spot atop the depth chart.

Miami’s O-line seems weak at the guard spots, so a healthy season from three-time Pro Bowl center Mike Pouncey is a must. He’s coming back from a hip malfunction and appears to be on track for the opener.

Any reason to care about Miami’s D/ST?

This team’s early season schedule has some modest fantasy appeal. The Dolphins open with a matchup against Jameis Winston, who threw 18 picks last year, and they face the Jets twice before the end of October. But should we think of Miami’s D as a full-season fantasy asset? Nope, not recommended just yet. This group ranked middle-of-the-pack in both turnovers (25) and sacks (33) in 2016, and they finished No. 29 in yards allowed (382.6 YPG). The team did use its first three draft picks on defensive talent while adding a group of sketchy vets, so it’s not crazy to expect improvement. DT Ndamukong Suh and SS Reshad Jones figure to be the best of Miami’s IDPs.

2016 Offensive Stats & Ranks Points per game – 22.7 (17) Pass YPG – 218.8 (26) Rush YPG – 114.0 (9) Yards per play – 5.8 (9) Plays per game – 57.4 (32)

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Previous Juggernaut Index entries: 32) NY Jets, 31) San Francisco, 30) Cleveland, 29) LA Rams, 28) Baltimore, 27) Chicago, 26) Minnesota, 25) Detroit, 24) Denver, 23) Jacksonville, 22) Buffalo, 21) Philadelphia, 20) Miami

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Juggernaut Index, No. 21: Eagles retooled offense needs Wentz to make a leap

The Philadelphia Eagles have a new cast of offensive skill players surrounding a second-year QB. (Photo by Chris Trotman/Getty Images)

Carson Wentz opened his NFL career with three straight wins, efficiently carving up the defenses of the Browns, Bears and Steelers. In those three September games, he completed 64.7 percent of his throws while averaging 256.3 yards per game and 7.54 per attempt. He tossed five touchdown passes and zero picks, posting a passer rating of 103.8. Wentz, in short, was terrific — a quick-thinking, mobile QB with plenty of arm. He certainly looked the part of a top-of-draft quarterback, a franchise cornerstone.

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And then the calendar flipped to October. No one would have guessed it at the time, but Wentz’s best games were already behind him. Losses piled up, as did turnovers. Wentz was punished by the better defenses on Philadelphia’s schedule. Here’s a look at his month-by-month performance:

September – 7.54 Y/A, 64.7 CMP%, 5 TD, 0 INT October – 6.01 Y/A, 66.7 CMP%, 4 TD, 3 INT November – 6.51 Y/A, 60.1 CMP%, 2 TD, 5 INT Dec. & Jan. – 5.53 Y/A, 60.5 CMP%, 5 TD, 6 INT

After Wentz’s early binge, he began a gradual descent toward mediocrity, and eventually to something worse. When all the numbers were in, he had nearly as many interceptions (14) as TD passes (16). He ranked near the bottom of the league in Y/A (6.23), behind guys like Case Keenum (6.84), Ryan Fitzpatrick (6.73) and Blake Bortles (6.25). Wentz completed a respectable 62.4 percent of his throws, but he averaged just 3.3 air yards per attempt, again ranking among the NFL’s sketchiest passers. (Keenum averaged 3.7, Osweiler 3.6 and Bortles 3.3).

Carson Wentz worked on footwork and mechanics during the offseason, hoping to prove last September wasn’t his peak. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)

Simply put, Wentz wasn’t good. We need to give him a partial pass because he was tossed into the fire as a first-year pro, but let’s also keep in mind that he wasn’t some 21-year-old kid. That excuse can fly for Jared Goff, but not Carson. In fact, Wentz is a year older than both Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston. He’s only eight months younger than Bortles, a player entering his fourth year in the league. Wentz will turn 25 before the end of the 2017 season; we have to assume he’s closer to a finished product than other recently drafted QBs.

Wentz spent much of his offseason working on throwing mechanics and footwork, while the Eagles’ front office spent time and resources adding talent at the offensive skill spots. If Wentz can’t make a significant leap in his second NFL season, his supporting cast won’t be to blame.

Welcome to Philly, Alshon Jeffery

Jeffery was the biggest (but not only) addition to Philadelphia’s receiving corps, and the team landed him on a one-year, make-good contract. Considering the modest commitment, it’s tough not to like the deal from the team’s perspective. When Jeffery is at his best, he’s one of the NFL’s elite downfield threats, uncommonly gifted in jump-ball scenarios. He has the size, strength and skills to win one-on-one battles on any route, at any level. Jeffery also has an 89-catch, 1421-yard season to his credit, so we know he’s capable of sustained WR1-level performance. But he also has a PED suspension on his resume, and he’s struggled with soft-tissue injuries. He’s hardly a lock to give us 16 games.

Early drafters seem to be thinking only of Jeffery’s ceiling and not his problematic floor, as his ADP in Yahoo leagues is 33.2. That’s too rich for me, considering his up-and-down history and the quality of his quarterback.

Alshon Jeffery is looking to reclaim his status as a high-end fantasy asset. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)

Torrey Smith signed a three-year deal with the Eagles (with very little guaranteed money), and he’ll battle third-year receiver Nelson Agholor for snaps and targets and relevance. Smith has been miscast as a do-it-all receiver at multiple NFL stops, but he’s undeniably a dangerous big-play vertical threat. As a fantasy commodity, he’s well suited for best-ball formats, where you don’t need to predict the week in which he’ll deliver his three-catch, 90-yard, two-TD game. He figures to be a low-volume field-stretcher, a guy who makes life easier for the short-to-intermediate route-runners.

We should note that Wentz’s pre-draft scouting reports generally praised his deep-ball ability, but that take wasn’t well supported by stats. Wentz was not particularly accurate on deep strikes at North Dakota State, and he completed just 31.0 percent of his deep throws last season, per Player Profiler. Smith and Jeffery should at least help make his downfield passing stats look a bit better, even if the throws aren’t perfectly placed. Wentz attempted 4.4 deep throws per game last season, so Doug Pederson’s team isn’t afraid to take shots.

Jordan Matthews has dealt with knee tendinitis throughout the offseason, but Philly’s slot receiver is expected to be ready for the opening of camp. We’ll see. He’s entering a contract year and his targets will surely take a hit this season, following the additions to the Eagles’ receiving corps. Matthews has never finished a season with less than 800 receiving yards, but he’s also never reached 1000. Ideally, you’ll draft him as a bench WR in fantasy, if you draft him at all. Agholor spent a fair amount of time in the slot during the offseason, generating modest spring buzz, but he isn’t likely to break out unless injuries clear a path. Fourth-round rookie Mack Hollins is an interesting size/speed combo player (6-foot-4, 4.53), but he’s buried on the depth chart at the moment.

Zach Ertz returns at tight end for what feels like his twelfth season, but is actually only his fifth. He finished eighth among fantasy scorers at his position last year and ranked fifth in targets (106). He remained a TD-challenged player, however, finishing with only four spikes. (When a QB averages just one touchdown pass per game, no receiver is going to feast.) Ertz saw 17 red-zone chances last season, so it isn’t crazy to expect him to retain his fantasy value, even if his targets take a small dip.

The Eagles backfield is stuck in committee

Philadelphia signed LeGarrette Blount to a one-year deal back in May, and he projects as the team’s primary early-down runner. Blount, of course, is coming off a ridiculous season for New England, rushing for a career high 1161 yards and a league-leading 18 TDs. He averaged just 3.9 YPC for the Pats, but no one ever suggested he was the game’s most elusive back. He won’t repeat last year’s 299 carries, but it’s not unreasonable to hope for something like 200 carries for 800 yards and 8-10 TDs. At his current ADP (77.1, RB23), there’s room for profit. Blount is entering his age-30 season and he’s never served as a credible receiving threat, so don’t expect anything more than his usual 5-7 catches.

LeGarrette Blount won’t repeat his 2016 TD total, but he remains a fantasy relevant runner. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)

Darren Sproles averaged 4.7 yards per carry and 8.2 per catch last season at age 33, reinforcing his status as an all-time outlier. He’s too small and too old, but he stubbornly continues to produce exceptionally well on a per-touch basis. He remains a bankable PPR asset, entering what might be his final NFL season. Sproles is one of the most thrilling players of his era and a historic oddity. It’s important to recognize that he does not come off the field in red-zone and goal-to-go situations, despite his size (5-foot-6, 190). Sproles handled 18 red-zone carries last year, and his 13 red-zone targets ranked fifth among all RBs.

Philly used a fourth-round draft pick on San Diego State back Donnel Pumphrey, the NCAA’s career rushing leader. (For the record, we realize Ron Dayne still has a valid claim on the rushing mark. But this is not the place to settle that dispute.) Pumphrey performed poorly at the combine in all areas — 4.48-speed isn’t enough for a 175-pound player — but, again, he was a hugely productive player with an excellent collegiate highlight reel. He was a capable receiver and route-runner for the Aztecs, too, catching 99 career passes. It’s clear the Eagles intend to get him on the field in his first pro season…

Pumphrey keeps gettting significant work with the 1s. Don’t want to overstate what happens in June, but Eagles are prepping him for a role

— Zach Berman (@ZBerm) June 13, 2017

…so keep him in your deep league and dynasty plans. He was running ahead of second-year back Wendell Smallwood during the offseason.

Ryan Mathews is still in the team picture as of this writing, but he’s recovering from a herniated disc and likely to be released when medically cleared. Waiting on his release will save the team a payout and cap hit. Because the NFL is cruel like that. Mathews turns 30 in October and his medical file is thick, so he’s no lock to make an impact anywhere.

Philadelphia’s defense is for streamers only

The Eagles were an almost perfectly average defense in every way last season, and the team lacks an elite IDP. Philly used its first three draft picks to address the D, and two of those selections — DE Derek Barnett and CB Sidney Jones — could eventually be special players. For now, this group is strictly a matchup play in fantasy. The team’s early season schedule isn’t too appealing for our purposes, so you can ignore this unit at the draft table.

2016 Offensive Stats & Ranks Points per game – 22.9 (16) Pass YPG – 224.1 (24) Rush YPG – 113.3 (11) Yards per play – 5.0 (29) Plays per game – 67.5 (4)

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Previous Juggernaut Index entries: 32) NY Jets, 31) San Francisco, 30) Cleveland, 29) LA Rams, 28) Baltimore, 27) Chicago, 26) Minnesota, 25) Detroit, 24) Denver, 23) Jacksonville, 22) Buffalo, 21) Philadelphia

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Juggernaut Index, No. 27: Bears have Jordan Howard and not much else

Here’s a Chicago Bears fan displaying the proper enthusiasm for the 2017 team. (Photo by Daniel Bartel/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Juggernaut Index, No. 27: Bears have Jordan Howard and a collection of bad ideas

The Chicago Bears managed to recklessly overspend not once but twice during the offseason, in pursuit of quarterbacks of questionable ability. First, general manager Ryan Pace threw a three-year, $45 million deal at Mike Glennon ($18.5M guaranteed) when other teams were hoping to land him at $8-10 million. Then, the Bears traded multiple picks in order to move up a single spot on draft night to select Mitch Trubisky, a player who likely would have fallen to them at their original slot.

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Not surprisingly, this team’s offseason has not earned high marks from … well, from anyone.

The list of Chicago’s free agent additions on offense looks like a last-place fantasy roster from 2014: Glennon, Mark Sanchez, Victor Cruz, Markus Wheaton, Kendall Wright, Rueben Randle, Dion Sims, Benny Cunningham. A few of those players could be serviceable, but none move the needle for a team coming off a 3-win season. In April, the Bears’ drafted as if their singular goal was to flummox anyone providing analysis on live TV. After using the No. 2 overall pick on Trubisky, Chicago spent three of its four remaining selections on players from non-FBS schools. It’s not at all clear that any of them, or Trubisky, will contribute in a meaningful way in 2017.

So, um … Bear down. Woo.

There they are, Trubisky and Glennon. Basically the Montana and Young of their generation. (Photo by Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Hey, at least Jay Cutler isn’t in the team picture, right?

True, but that’s cold comfort for Bears fans. At least Cutler made things interesting, delivering the occasional wow throw before vomiting away winnable games. In Glennon, the team has found a perfectly league-average passer, prone to misfires. He enters his fifth NFL season with a career completion percentage of 59.4, averaging 6.5 yards per attempt. He has plenty of arm strength, but only modest athleticism and a disastrous lack of mobility. Bad things tend to happen when Glennon faces pressure and begins his awkward, giraffe-ish backpedalling — things like this and this and this.

Still, Glennon enters camp as the team’s unchallenged starting quarterback. If he can hold the job over a full season, we can expect something like 3650 yards, 22 passing TDs and a dozen picks. Meh. If you play in a league in which QBs from the 18-to-24 range need to be owned, then Glennon’s name belongs on your cheat sheet. He’s an uninteresting QB2 for fantasy purposes, a player who can guide your team to a respectable loss when your starter is on bye. For the Bears, Glennon is a bridge QB. He’ll have the starting gig until Chicago decides to enter the Trubisky era.

*SHUDDER*

If Trubisky develops into a difference-making quarterback who orchestrates deep playoff runs over multiple seasons, fans will not care about the degree to which the franchise was fleeced in the 2017 draft. Ryan Pace’s NFL future now cannot be disentangled from Trubisky’s. There’s little question that the rookie has pro-level athleticism, size and arm talent. But he clearly wasn’t the most physically gifted QB in his draft class, nor was he the most accomplished. Trubisky was a one-year starter at North Carolina, where he played in a shotgun-based spread system. He couldn’t leapfrog Marquise Williams on the depth chart in 2014 or 2015, then entered the draft unfamiliar with at least one basic QB concept. So that’s alarming.

Trubisky’s numbers were of course excellent last year (8.4 Y/A, 30 TDs), but his best single-game performances — the games that elevated his prospect status — all occurred in the first half of the season. That’s another small concern. He was brutal in the Sun Bowl, facing an opponent that had abundant time to game-plan. He missed open receivers, gave away field position, and he was baited into a game-changing pick-six. It wasn’t pretty.

But the Bears were undeterred. He’s the future at QB in Chicago, for better or worse. Frank Schwab is kinda/sorta buying…

…but I’ll pass, thanks. I’m taking Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes and DeShone Kizer ahead of Trubisky in dynasty drafts, in that order.

With Alshon Jeffery gone, who’s the No. 1 receiver in Chicago?

The Bears signed a group of reclamation project receivers — Wheaton, Wright, Cruz, Roob — all of whom can be ignored in fantasy leagues of standard size. Wheaton received the biggest deal (two years, $11 million), but he’s entering his fifth pro season with just one 100-yard game to his credit. Cruz will see time in the slot, health permitting. Wright may very well be the best wideout from this sketchy group of vets, but he’ll need to battle for his snaps.

Cameron Meredith is by far the most interesting ascending piece of this team’s receiving corps. Meredith made an immediate impact in 2016 when injuries cleared a path to meaningful playing time. He saw double-digit targets four times last season, and he topped 100 receiving yards in each of those games. For the year, Meredith finished with 66 catches, 888 yards and four TDs on just 96 targets. If any receiver on this team is going to emerge as an every-week fantasy play, it’s him. Meredith has good size (6-foot-3), speed and terrific leaping ability. He’s dealing with a thumb injury at the moment, but nothing that’s expected to compromise his season. At his current Yahoo ADP (110.4), there’s room for substantial profit.

Former first-rounder Kevin White remains in the mix, though he’s missed 28 of 32 games over his two NFL seasons due to fractures in his left leg. White ran a blistering 4.35 40-yard dash at the combine back in 2015, but that timed speed hasn’t translated to game action. He appeared in Chicago’s first four games last season, catching 19 balls for 187 yards on 35 targets. He’s made exactly one highlight-worthy play in his pro career, this 32-yard grab over Morris Claiborne. At least we know he’s capable of beating someone. He’ll have yet another chance to prove himself in 2017, though he seems a poor bet to stay healthy. White is worth a final-round flier based on projected opportunity, but let’s not go so far as to call him a sleeper.

At tight end, the Bears have the uninteresting Dion Sims, a still-rehabbing Zach Miller (Lisfranc), and a gigantic rookie, Adam Shaheen. None of these players deserve consideration in standard redraft leagues. Miller is a fringy option in very deep leagues, depending on his recovery. Shaheen is a prospect of interest in dynasty formats, and he’s generated low-level buzz during the team’s offseason program. But he’s also a rookie from a small school (Ashland University), facing the steepest possible learning curve. He has no clear route to fantasy relevance in the year ahead. He does have a hoops backstory, for what it’s worth, like all the cool tight ends.

Jordan Howard finds the end-zone in a game that cost the Bears a draft slot. Woo. (Getty Images)

Can Jordan Howard possibly repeat his rookie performance?

This is the only Bears question that truly matters, fantasy-wise. Howard was an absolute revelation as a rookie. He gained 1611 scrimmage yards and scored seven times on 281 touches, averaging 5.2 yards per carry and 10.3 per reception. If he hadn’t opened the season running behind Jeremy Langford, he might have seriously challenged Ezekiel Elliott for the rushing title. Over the season’s final nine weeks, Howard’s worst single-game yards-from-scrimmage total was 99. He’s certainly not a burner, but he maximizes his runs, rarely makes a poor choice and consistently falls forward. He’s legit, no question, and he does his running behind a quality O-line.

It’s no given that Howard (or any back) will continue to average better than 5.0 yards per tote, and it’s likely that opposing defenses will invite Glennon to throw early and often in 2017. Howard should see plenty of stacked fronts next season, and he didn’t fare well with eight or more in the box last year (2.6 YPC per Player Profiler). Additionally, we have the issue of Chicago’s general offensive ineptitude; this team ranked No. 29 in the league in scoring last season. It would require a heroic effort for Howard to reach double-digit touchdowns on a team that may average only 17-18 points per game. Considering the team context, it’s tough for me to pull the trigger on him at his current first-round ADP (9.6).

Howard led all backs in dropped passes last season with seven on just 50 targets, so let’s not assume he’ll emerge as a significant receiving weapon. The Bears signed passing down specialist Benny Cunningham to a one-year deal, plus they drafted diminutive gadget back Tarik Cohen in Round 4. Cohen is live-wire quick, but unusually small by NFL standards (5-foot-6, 175). If he carves out a meaningful role, he’ll be an extreme outlier. Cohen is another FCS draftee (North Carolina A&T), so he’s about to face a massive quality-of-competition leap.

Is there any hope for the Bears def—?

Just stop. Please. Nope.

No, there is not much hope for a defense that ranked dead-last in takeaways last season (11) and allowed 24.9 points per game. The addition of DB Quintin Demps will no doubt help, and pass-rush specialist Leonard Floyd flashed real potential as a rookie. But this is a defense without an obvious top-50 IDP. Also, the team opens with a brutal September schedule: Atlanta, at Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, at Green Bay. No thanks.

2016 Offensive Stats & Ranks Points per game – 17.4 (29) Pass YPG – 258.7 (15) Rush YPG – 108.4 (17) Yards per play – 5.9 (5) Plays per game – 60.4 (30)

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Previous Juggernaut Index entries: 32) NY Jets, 31) San Francisco, 30) Cleveland, 29) LA Rams, 28) Baltimore, 27) Chicago