#vaccines are nice but not in case of covid

[unhonestlymirror]

People dying of thrombosis because of covid vaccine; confirming studies about covid vaccination developing neuronal cells degeneration as well:

Internet: i sleep

A one case of a girl who developed early dementia after getting covid for 3 times (the last one after the vaccine):

Internet: - REAL SHIT!!!

[z-h-i-e]

The Reality of Responding to Comments Left on Fanfiction

Or, a rebuttal to a Tumblr post I was going to comment on, then thought, why not just start a whole new post?

So I happened upon a post recently which compared not replying to comments to not holding open a door for someone.

Firstly, I want to point out, I'm in the midwest of the US of A. Even during the middle of covid, when people were very careful about touching things, we are so trained to open doors, we were still doing it. Hell, we try to hold open doors for each other when it's an automatic door.

Commenting back to comments, though. In theory, sure, very nice to do. In practice, no. That's the short answer; buckle up for the long one.

It's February of 2020. I'm already starting to suspect shit in the world is going down soon--while everyone else is watching the impeachment here like it's the next big reality TV series, I'm stocking up on canned goods, cereal, and cheese. (Yeah. Cheese. I'm from fucking Wisconsin. I had a mini fridge just for cheese. Judge me. I can take it.)

Once a month, during those 'pre-pandemic' days, I would take one long lunch hour -- I would use comp time, I'd drive out to Panera, I'd sit in the area upon which I based part of Salgant's house, and I'd answer comments. It was a happier time. I had time to do it. It was nice to go through all the interesting things people noticed or the bits they liked. Hell, I even like a good flame--keeps me warm, lets me roast a few marshmallows, and then I go fucking Feanor in Formenos on them. But I digress.

That was the last time I had a chance to do that. Because then, and sorry, forgive me if this is new information, but there was a fucking worldwide plague that occurred. And during that catastrophic world event, not all of us recovered to a point where we're back to normal yet. I don't know about the rest of you, but wondering each day if I'd ever get to hug my parents while they were still alive? Kind of stressful. See, my father has major medical issues (kidney failure and on dialysis, cancer survivor three times over, osteoporosis, diabetes, diverticulitis, and sleep apnea), and my mother has a few doozies, too (COPD, macular degeneration, also a cancer survivor, and a whole fucking messed up thing with her spine). With all the concerns of previously mentioned plague, the doctors at the time advised that no one else was to go into their house until there were viable covid vaccines. I would come over, drop off groceries and medications on their porch, close the door and call on my phone, then air hug from the street thirty feet away.

I remember all the stuff I did to try to keep my brain happy. I watched my way through 'If Google was a Person' and 'Epic Rap Battles of History', over and over. I found museums who had 360 views to pretend I was on field trips, and I found a bunch of virtual rollercoasters to 'ride' on. And I listened to Hamilton so many times if it was vinyl I'd have worn a hole through it.

I had coworkers who died from covid. People who seemed generally okay, people I would not have thought would be hit so hard by it. We lost several pets since 2020--two dogs, two cats, and a rabbit. In the case of our beloved Trotter, who went through more surgical procedures than I can recall, I would have to hand him off to a technician, then sit in the car for three or four hours, wondering if he would be okay, if he would feel better afterwards, if he would wake up after each procedure, if his already damaged heart could take another.

I had my share of medical bullshit throughout the past nearly five years. The big 'well this is bullshit' of them all is that I had a pretty good life plan going, along with 'we all going to do all the things to try to make a smol human in the 2020/2021 range' and, well, let me tell you folks, as soon as pandemic got volleyed around, that was a big nope. That nope was followed by so many additional 'did my warranty expire?' moments, but I have to say, the highlights of the instant replay real would be the intercostal muscle tear which has still not healed completely correctly, so it is physically painful to push a grocery cart around in a store for more than thirty seconds, the whole episode when my pancreas decided to stop working for a hot minute but it was covid city in the hospitals so I was sent home with meds and a 'best of luck' sort of thing, and the secondary infection when I did eventually catch covid despite so many precautions (funny enough, from my father when we finally had the first in-person Christmas again in 2022--so, while the concern was I could end up giving it to him, he ended up giving it to me).

But the most frustrating, the most enduring, has been my failing vision. When I was 8, and at a public school for the first time, they did vision screenings, and realized 'wow, this one does not see well'. Now, in theory, someone should have figured that out sooner -- I had jabbed myself in the eye no less than three times (possibly more) that I remember before the age of five from accidentally getting things too close to my face. So glasses and I have been pretty tight now for nearly four decades. But it was during the pandemic that I started to think I must have been dealing with some strain from computers or needed a new prescription or something. Words were far more difficult to read. I would sometimes stare at pages in books or on the screen and just see...nothing, really. (Kind of not helpful in my profession.)

I went years with terrible distance vision, but great vision up close. Now that had failed, too. But it wasn't just that. At least with distances, I could still generally see things. Up close--sometimes yes, sometimes no. So I kept getting tested and retested and asked questions and went to different doctors and described things--

--and finally, sometimes, you find someone who listens, and wants to figure it out, and does. And then you have an answer. But answers don't always mean solutions. And when I asked how we fix it, I got an answer, but not a solution.

The answer is, I can't.

And to the follow up, will it get worse, that answer is, maybe.

But it won't get better.

So as I'm still processing this, having days where I want to write but can't even see the words, I think about all of the stories I still don't have posted on AO3. I think of things on floppy disks--not just the hard floppy disks, fucking floppity floppy disks, where the only backup is on dot matrix printer paper--and I think about things that are handwritten, and stories on old flashdrives, and the words from the musical that got me through the pandemic play through my mind.

Why do you write like you're running out of time?

Because.

I am.

I'm not the biggest fan of mortality--I fucking write about elves, friends. Elves, and more elves, and after that, a few additional elves, just in case. I've rooted myself in Valinor, for the most part, over the last few years.

I am very aware that I am more likely than not on the downward slope of life's journey at this point. For anyone who has ever been sledding in the midwest during winter, you know you go way faster on that downward slope.

So I've got some pretty solid goals in mind. I have stories I need to finish. I've got art and other things I want to make. I have items I want transferred to a place that stands a decent chance of still being around when I'm not, or when I'm not able to do the moving of things anymore, from personal websites I have. I completed one really big accomplishment over the summer--I sat down and wrote my scientific paper on the Silmarils. I really wanted to get that written, and I'm very happy I did.

I've lost too many fandom friends over the past five years. People I'd known for decades, people I knew by their legal names, people I'd exchanged mail with and in some cases met in person.

So, I'd like to go back to the Panera days of having a sammich and one of those salads that are practically dessert because it's more than half fruit and take a few hours each month to answer comments. Trust me, there are no awards for four digit unanswered comment boxes. If there were, I'd have seen one by now. Every comment is immensely appreciated. They make me think about things, and reconsider things, and sometimes sneak in a character or two based on what someone says.

And I'm hoping that someday, maybe when I'm retired or at a point when I'm able to get down to working just one job or something, I'll be able to get back to the older comments I haven't answered yet. But right now, I've got a few other higher priorities in life.

Today was my father's 69th birthday. I suppose I could have answered a few comments today, but instead, after working a ten hour shift, I went to hang out with my dad--which is basically just us sitting and talking, but it's amazing because I spent so many sleepless nights over the past few years wondering if he and my mom would make it through the worst of the pandemic.

I regret nothing.

I hope that for now, you can take my word on the door opening. In fact, this morning when I got to work, I got the door for someone, then I noticed a moth on the ground that looked a bit dazed like it had just gotten itself out of a spider web, so I bent down and I managed to get it onto my finger so that no one stepped on it, then I walked back down to where there are plants and grass and deposited the moth (who at first wanted to crawl about on me, which I allowed for a moment before getting it safely onto a leaf) then came back up again, saw to a large cricket so that no one stepped on it either, and finally got in. Please accept for now the sharing of stories as the holding of the door the first time; I'll try to get it for you again if I can later on, when I'm on my way out--but I have some business to finish inside first.

[nimblermortal]

Nimblermortal's Covid Survival Tips 2023

because what's the point of having this if I can't make it easier for the next person?

First symptom for me was a mild sore throat. This started around noon; the next morning I woke up with no symptoms but feeling terrible, which I interpret as the medical "sense of impending doom" that is a real symptom.

Charmin toilet paper. This stuff is softer than Kleenex. Get you a whole roll and a shopping bag. Don't have a runny nose for a symptom? Don't care, it'll come.

Blankets you can kick on and off. I spent two days "cycling" - chills, fever, then lucidity. You need to be able to both vent and huddle.

If you are scientifically inclined: Keep a thermometer nearby. I regret not taking my temperature during the cycles, I'm really curious about whether I was running hotter or colder during the hot stages. That said, you will definitely not have enough energy to take your temperature during these stages.

Some sort of infinite podcast. It doesn't matter what it is. Honestly I recommend Critical Role even if you don't like D&D live plays. You do not care what is going on here, the point is white noise that you don't have to change. Make sure the device is plugged in. I could only nap while there was white noise happening - and when I say 'nap' I mean 'I don't know if I slept or not, just that I was face-down and some time passed'.

Advil. This will lower the fever. If you can, wait until the second day - the fever helps burn out the disease, but this only applies to the first 24 hours. But don't let the fever get too high. I ran a steady 101 F/38.3 C for two days, which is fine. You can take one every 4 hours up to 6 times a day. For me the best effects only lasted 2 hours and I was ready by the fourth (but also a stubborn pig who tried to hold out; there's no advantage to this after the first 24 hours).

Small dishes. People kept trying to feed me and I couldn't finish anything. Small dishes, plain foods, let yourself have the ability to win at meals. (Note: this may not apply to you, but I'm the sort of person who used to be sent to elementary school with a single small potato because the cafeteria was too noisy for me to eat but I needed to win at lunch.) If you're preparing just-in-case, you could put some in the freezer

Immune boosters. My aunt swears by Sambucol, which is elderberry and vitamin C and zinc. Zinc matters more if you are male. My take on the Sambucol advantage is elderberry taste good.

Non-caffeinated tea. Something that goes down the throat easy. I had a sore throat to start with, then after the cycling I've got a progressively increasing cough; warm beverage nice. (I also craved a masala tea in the middle of the cycling, so caffeine might be nice, but you probably want to let yourself sleep.)

Vicks vaporub. Apply directly to the forehead liberally once the coughing starts. The package says you can do this 3 times a day.

Don't worry about cough medicines unless you have one you trust implicitly. Mum says they're not very effective, so you want that sweet, sweet placebo effect.

Someone to watch over you. Partly to make sure you don't get it worse than I had. Mostly because when I'm weak and sick I get clingylonely and I need someone to assure me I am loved. I had the same problem with the vaccines - shivering under the blankets calling weakly for Hyacinth because I was alone and Sad. Honestly the covid has been less intense but longer.

Recovery time. Covid heals a lot slower than comparable sicknesses. Whatever you think your return-to-work day might be, add at least two days to it. (I thought I was getting away with something last Wednesday, tried to work Thursday, and survived for one hour.)

More recovery time. This thing heals very slowly. I haven't had symptoms in a week - aside from having to plan for being able to do single-digit numbers of tasks in a day. And 'digesting a meal' is a separate energy task from 'eating a meal' is a separate energy task from 'preparing a meal' is a separate... (No really, I had to plan energy expenditure for digestion.) At a week out, I am still having to make room for daily hour-long naps and activities interspersed with lying down - though at least now I can embroider with a TV show during these periods. Give yourself lots of time, even when it feels stupid.

[kira-akira]

when did you get the covid vaccine

Cool! So I'm gonna give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you're a well-meaning person who has been misinformed about vaccine injury and give you some information.

Here's the CDC's page about adverse events after COVID vaccination. Here are some highlights:

"Anaphylaxis after COVID-19 vaccination is rare." "It has occurred at a rate of approximately 5 cases per one million vaccine doses administered."

"People receiving COVID-19 vaccines are less likely to die from COVID-19 and its complications and are at no greater risk of death from non-COVID causes, than unvaccinated people."

Now this part is interesting, because the J&J vaccine has been linked with higher incidence of Guillain-Barre Syndrome (GBS)! So that is concerning but in studying this link, they also found that Moderna and Pfizer vaccines showed no increase in GBS. If you were concerned that maybe I had the J&J vaccine, don't worry! I didn't.

"Myocarditis and pericarditis after COVID-19 vaccination are rare." "To date, evidence indicates that the benefits of mRNA COVID-19 vaccination outweigh the risk of myocarditis."

"Thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS) has been rarely observed after J&J/Janssen COVID-19 vaccination and has occurred in approximately 4 cases per one million doses administered."

But let's say you don't trust what the CDC says. That's understandable, we should all try to do our own research, especially about things that could affect our lives and health. Ok so here are some specific research papers with some quotes of their conclusions.

COVID vaccine-induced liver injury: "The overall incidence of this phenomenon appears to be exceedingly low." "Providers should remain vigilant [...] and yet feel reassured by the low incidence and high likelihood of recovery."

COVID vaccine-associated myocarditis: "Myocarditis following immunization is a rare event." "At short-term follow-up, all patients with vaccine-associated myocarditis were asymptomatic with no adverse events."

Or perhaps you read the recent report about COVID vaccine injury incidence, or no, sorry, maybe you didn't read it but you saw an inflammatory and irresponsible news report about the study. Well here is a quote from Anne Bass, who is the lead author of the study, about the results: "It is important to note, however, that identifying a harm does not mean that it occurs frequently. Harms associated with vaccines are rare.”

Now, I see you also sent my friend Jack the same ask, thank you for your concern about our health. If you want to know more about my specific circumstances, I've messaged with many people about Long COVID who either sent me an ask or who asked a question in the tags of my Long COVID post, so don't be shy! If you need help understanding any of the studies linked then feel free to message me. And if you're personally concerned about vaccination for yourself, talk to your doctor, they know your medical history.

The funny thing is, I've met vaccine-injured people in Long COVID circles and they were all incredibly nice people who would never go into someone's inbox to anonymously ask and fearmonger about the vaccine. Have a nice day.

[oh-yes-i-did-not]

Okay so for those either too young to remember or who were alive during but it never really affected them based on where they lived, Mad Cow Disease

Mad Cow Disease was thing in the late 80′s and the entire 90′s, all the way to early 00′s and it was an international scare. Like, we had disinfecting stations on international airports because of it.

It was a virus passed from animals to humans and this didn’t happen somewhere random in Asia, where, idk, bats and pigs interact and infect the food chain, but in Europe. In UK to be precise.

It affected only cows at first and only agriculture paid any attention, since any animal infected needed to be put down. Like no shit, those animals couldn’t even walk with how bad they were shaking and if you want to google this, be prepared. It doesn’t look nice, it looks ugly and horrifying and it will likely traumatize someone.

And the mode of transfer was not evident. There are videos and photos, showing cow carcasses being burned and someone trying to claim that was early days but that was very much not the reality in the beginning. In fact, all the research showed it is not possible for Mad Cow Disease to infect humans. In fact2, a similar disease was already known in lambs for decades and that one could not infect humans, so it was a no brainer to say, a similar disease in cows can also NEVER infect humans, so no precautions with the carcass needed.

But the thing is, how we processed meat had changed drastically between the lambs being a stable, grown at home meat, and then cows, or beef, becoming dominant with supermarkets. This is basically the “you see this, this is animal paste from a teletubby machine” video, except the paste wasn’t fed to humans. It’s known as meat and bone meal and it was all the leftover stuff from abattoirs, ground up and fed back to the animals as valuable protein.

You might see where this is going.

So let’s talk about prion diseases.

Well, as much as I, a random person know about them. Prions are proteins and proteins are not DNA or RNA, which are most likely familiar to anyone who has googled Covid, or any novel corona viruses in general. They’re the viruses a vaccine is made for.

Prion diseases are, in fact, mostly known because of cannibalism. Kuru is a famous disease among one specific tribe on Pacific Islands, caused by their tradition of consuming their relatives flesh after death. In fact, I just fact checked on which ocean and was told that the Kuru was mainly affecting kids and women because the men ate limbs and muscles and women and kids got the brain and basically all the best, fatty parts. Which, ironically, carried the disease.

And yes, in any survivalist culture fat, innards, and cartilage and the “bad parts” are the best because they contain the most nutrients so no, you do no get to twist this into the men taking the best, so fuck of terfs. This post is not for you.

Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease was already known by the time of Mad Cow Disease, it was a brain destroying disease affecting the elderly population. Mad Cow became variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease, or vCJD and was picked up because it mainly affected the young.

And in case you didn’t get it already, the link was infected cow carcasses being processed to meat and bone meal to be fed back to cows, because infected prion diseases spread through cannibalism. Or more specifically, spine and brain stem.

(so you’re relatively safe eating just the thigh or any muscle tbh)

So in the end, Mad Cow Disease didn’t kill that many people, only few hundreds, if I recall correctly.

But the thing that was found out about the prion diseases because of Kuru was that while some people exhibited symptoms and died really early, most had an incubation period of DECADES, aka 50 years. So the inevitable conclusion about vCJD is that it has only claimed it’s first victims and that majority are still waiting to appear and die.

Because the thing about prion diseases? There is currently no cure. And the fact that no one seems to remember this and that there is no awareness of it is not helping.

[servin-up-surveys]

survey #226

Has anyone ever made fun of your taste in music? Uh, maybe? Not that I remember.

What’s your favorite season of the year? Autumn.

Is anyone’s birthday coming up? My mom's is the beginning of next month.

Does someone owe you over twenty dollars? I've spoken about how my sister stole $100 of gifted money from me behind my back and I only know because of my mom. I don't like bringing it up because I'm still bitter as hell she never said to my face "hey Brittany, I need help with bills, can I pay you back?" or anything like this. I don't think she even knows I know.

Do you like sour candy? I love sour candy.

Ignoring nutrition, could you live off veggies for the rest of your life? Absolutely not.

Has someone of the opposite sex ever told you that you were sexy? Somehow.

Do you prefer to take your showers at night or in the morning? Of the two, mornings. But I tend to do later in the afternoon.

Do you have any ‘naughty’ photos on your phone? No.

Do you tend to fall for players? No.

Have you spoken to your mother today? Father? Mom, every day. I haven't spoken to my dad in a while.

Have you ever gotten a flu vaccination? No, but I got my Covid vaccine. I SHOULD get flu vaccines, I just... can't be bothered. That and I don't like LONG needles going into my skin. Covid was too serious a threat to not get vaccinated.

What’s the last restaurant you ate at? It was some Mexican place Nicole took Mom and me to. It was pretty nice, I just can't remember its name.

Double dates: a do or don’t? I think they're fun, but I'd certainly advise one-on-one dates, too.

Do you know any guitarists? Yes.

Do you have any relatives that have shunned you, or vice versa? My immediate family doesn't associate with one of my mother's brothers because he's pure fucking garbage that disgraced his dead mother's wishes as to what would be done with her money. He lied, evaded, and greatly risked being sued if we actually wanted to. He's rich filth.

Which would you rather have, a new puppy or kitten? Neither, realistically. If I move in with Girt like I want to one day, we're gonna have two cats since I have one and he has one, and I don't want to start out in a house with three cats to deal with; I might never want three cats. Pet dogs aren't my thing, but I'm sure we'll have one when I live with Girt again, because he is a GINORMOUS dog person, so if he wants a dog, he can have a dog.

Does/did your high school have pop machines? It did.

Do you know anyone who’s won the lottery? Nope.

If you could work at any retail store, which one would it be? I will never fucking ever work in retail ever again.

Have you ever stringed green beans before? I feel like I did this at Colleen's in-laws' once...?

Have you ever had any painful dental work done? If so, what? Yes, that's what happens when you spent too long neglecting your teeth. Deep cleaning HURTS, especially because in my case they had to do an injection into the very roof of my mouth, which was my most painful experience ever with a needle. I had two wisdom teeth taken out but we couldn't afford to put me to sleep, but that was just more scary than painful, because obviously I was numbed to hell, just the jarring sound of your teeth breaking (my bad one had deep cavities and this made it break into quite a few pieces) is extremely fucking unpleasant and because you obviously expect pain, it's a very strange and shocking experience.

Do you shop at any independent music stores? No.

Which flower is your favorite? I have a lot, honestly... Orchids, hydrangeas, roses, specifically pink tulips, hibiscuses, etc.

Have you ever picked wild flowers? I know I have as a kid to give to my mom.

Have you ever walked through a forest? No, not a true forest. Just woods around my old house.

What was the last wild animal you saw? Some bird.

Have you ever seen a mountain in person? Yes.

Do you prefer jam or butter on your biscuits? Jam.

Have you ever explored somewhere abandoned? Yes.

Where is the last place you went to as a tourist? Charlotte.

What country do you most want to travel to? South Africa.

Do you prefer to read in bed or in a chair? A chair on the back porch, but if it's too hot or humid, I read in bed.

Have you ever kept a physical, hand-written journal? Yes. I regularly did this the many instances I was hospitalized.

Which season do you think is the prettiest? Autumn.

What style house do you want to own? I don't even know house styles, man...

Would you rather swim in a lake, a river, or the ocean? Ocean.

Would you rather play in the snow or the rain? Snow.

Have you ever pressed flowers or leaves into a book? No.

Have you ever found a four-leaf clover? I've found multiple. At one of our old homes, we had a patch that had a mutation apparently and it continued to reproduce so we had quite a bit.

What did you do the last time you hung out with your best friend? I watched him play some of the Elden Ring DLC and we cuddled in bed for quite a while.

Have you ever taken an art class? All available semesters in high school (there were either three or four), plus lots of photography through HS, college, and even beyond, and a painting course in college.

What is your ethnic background? Basic white bitch. Just German, Irish, Polish influence that I know of. We don't really know my dad's heritage.

Do you like coffee? I've hated every coffee I've ever tried from anywhere.

What was the last thing you wrote by hand? An appointment in my planner.

Who did you last worry about and why? Myself, honestly. My last psychiatrist appointment was extremely eye-opening and scary, but in a way that was needed.

Are you currently looking for a new place to live? Not actively, but certainly passively. Mom and I hate it here, A LOT. Girt sometimes looks at places, and I have no idea if he plans on taking me with him immediately when he moves. I... hope, but it's not my place at all to push him about it. I feel it'd be wise for him to establish himself first, but I can't help hoping we'll just move right in together.

When was the last time you ate/drank something gross just to be polite? Probably sometime I was at Girt's for some party. I have in VERY few cases enjoyed his mother's cooking. I can't pull this off well, though, and by this point they're so familiar with me, I don't really do this; my face and general bodily reactions are SUPER SUPER FUCKING TELLING if I don't like something despite my best efforts, and they know this about me by now. They know my pickiness and intense reactions to food I dislike aren't things I have control over, so they at least say they don't mind.

Last time you heard a growl, who or what did it come from? Our dog because she heard something outside.

When did you last make up a baby’s bottle? Never.

When did you last see the sea? It's been many years.

Do you apologize a lot? Yes, I'm absolutely one of those people who gets told "stop apologizing" and stuff.

Is there a gang problem in your area? In my city, yes. Among locals, it's known for crime, like murder and a lot of shootings.

Would you date an already attached person? No, only monogamy would work for me. I KNOW I would get jealous in poly arrangements and be convinced they don't actually love me; I DO believe poly people can absolutely love all their partners, I just know I would have problems remaining confident in my OWN poly relationship.

When you marry, will you wear white? Probably not, but possibly.

Could you date someone who’s only been your friend for a long time? Ha, this is literally mine and Girt's story. Ended up being a fantastic decision, so.

Do you think it’s better to look for love or let it find you? I think it's generally better to let it find you. However, I wouldn't say it's always a BAD idea for any person imaginable to seek it out, especially depending on lifestyles, like for people who basically never go out and interact with others. They deserve love too if they want a relationship, and it'll be hard to find UNLESS they make an effort.

Have you ever learned an important lesson as a result of a breakup? Oh for sure. Anyone who reads these probably knows about it.

Do you or would you ever wear fake eyelashes? No.

When was the last time you slept in a tent? Not since I was a child.

What was the last television show that you sat and watched multiple episodes of? Uhhh... I'm not sure. I only ever really watch TV with Mom and rarely Girt, so... oh. Maybe The Floor.

Is there anything significant happening this month? This month is almost done. No.

When was the last time you had a Poptart? It's been maybe like... two+ months?

Do you like hot chocolate? Totally.

What’s your favorite Michael Jackson song? Maybe "Billie Jean." There's a cover of "They Don't Care About Us" that I adore, but I've never actually heard the OG.

When was the last time you got your hair done professionally? Like a month ago, to dye it lilac.

Have you ever gotten your legs waxed? No, that sounds excruciating.

Have you ever read anything by Edgar Allen Poe? Of course.

Do you like horses? Yeah, I think they're extremely majestic and deep animals.

Have you ever seen a snake in real life? Yeah, I literally have one in my bedroom.

Do you know anyone that has been held hostage before? No.

[zmyaro]

I am extremely disappointed to see @magfest 2024 not only removed their COVID-19 policy (super.magfest.org/covid), but with such “this is your problem now” wording that hits me as though someone somewhere up the chain of command doesn't want to care any more than public opinion says xe has to.

I understand enforcement and enforceability are difficult issues, but you can still communicate you understand this increases the level of danger to people.

Just as a very rough first draft, it would have been nice to see something like: “We only want to promise policies we are confident we can enforce, and we don't have the manpower to enforce a mask requirement at MAGFest 2024. We need you to do your part to keep everyone in the MAGFest community safe—get the latest vaccine booster for protection against newer COVID-19 variants and wear an N95 or similar mask throughout the event to protect yourself in case someone near you is unknowingly contagious, and protect your fellow congoers if you are. COVID-19 cases have spiked every January since the start of the pandemic, and MAGFest can only thrive if everyone can attend safely, so we urge you to take these precautions seriously.”

[counttwinkula]

so here's what's going on in my life

my parents went to some antique thing this last weekend and did some shopping. monday morning my parents tell me that my mom has a cold, she took a COVID test and she's negative so they're confident it's a cold

i go over to my bf's house that night. come back home tuesday morning and my mom tells me that now my dad is sick, in case i want to turn around and go right back to my bf's, but i don't bc it's just a cold, who cares

wednesday morning i wake up an hour before my alarm, eager to get back to sleep, but my dad decides that this is the precise moment he needs to tell me that after two days of negative COVID tests my parents have now tested positive. yippee

so now i'm in this limbo where i've been exposed to people with COVID, except for the first 48 hours of their symptoms they were getting negative test results. i didn't interact with them since they tested positive and i have no symptoms, but i've also been exposed. what i decided to do, because i have the luxury to do so, is come over to my bf's dad's house and isolate in the spare room (luckily it's just us here)

it's nice to have the peace of mind that i won't be further exposed to my parents while they have COVID, and i obviously don't want to expose my bf needlessly, but it's just this bizarre middle ground where i'm not sick but we're waiting to see if i turn out to be sick, and i'm at my boyfriend's house but i can't be WITH him

ps we're all up to date with our vaccinations and please god you should be too

[ssjandtechno]

A quick guide to vaccines for scifi writers

(can you tell I've seen too many wildly innacurate bits of fiction this week?)

What is a vaccine for?

A vaccine is a fake disease. Its job is to pretend to be one very specific disease and con your body into fighting it, without risking you getting dangerously unwell. I compare it to fire drills when I'm talking to children. You have fire drills at school/work so that if there's a fire, everyone knows what to do and everyone can be safe. You have vaccines so that, if you ever meet this disease, your body knows what to do, and your body can be safe.

Important: Vaccines prevent. Vaccines very rarely cure. In almost all circumstances, you have to have had the vaccine you come in to contact with the disease, sometimes several weeks before. In a very small number of cases, in diseases with very long incubation periods (the time gap between catching it and getting sick), vaccines can be given in that long time gap and still work. Once you have symptoms, vaccines will not help you.

How long does a vaccine take to work?

It varies. The fastest one I've ever seen boasted 72 hours to onset of immunity, five to fifteen days is more normal

What is a vaccine made of?

Dead disease (killed vaccines), maimed disease (live or attenuated vaccines) fake disease (mRNA vaccines), or part of a disease (subunit vaccines). Dead viruses or bacteria, obviously, can't actually make you ill. But immune systems are suspicious gits, they'll still practice killing dead bugs most of the time. Subunit vaccines also are very safe, but small mutations (variations) in the bugs can stop the vaccines from working. Live vaccines tend to be very, very effective, but might be able to make you sick if your immune system is very weak. I could spend a long time explaining why mRNA vaccines are so, so clever (I thought they were likely to be impossible when I was an undergrad - like teleportation or universal translation software), but here is a nice readable explanation if you're curious.

But the disease in my story is a virus, so antibiotics won't work on it, so I need a vaccine, right?

Okay, yes, but also no. In face of a viral epidemic or pandemic, a vaccine is pretty much your only hope. But, as COVID showed us, vaccines are bespoke, slow to make, and don't work perfectly - vaccinated people still got COVID and, occasionally, still died. But there are a whole lot of other disease on which antibiotics won't work. Fungal infections (like in The Last of Us, or murcomycosis in real life) are scary and we don't have many treatment options for them. In many cases, you have to cut the infected tissue out like it's a tumour. Parasitic disease is a big group of weird and wonderful stuff which (mostly) won't respond to antibiotics. There's some nightmare fuel in parasitic diseases! Malaria is a parasitic disease, toxoplasmosis is a parasitic disease (and it rewires your brain a little), lungworms and heartworms are parasites. Some parasites even have the fun catch that, if you kill them quickly/in the wrong way, they release stuff that kills the host anyway. Stargate SG-1 had a go at this concept. And, certainly these days, there are bacterial infections that are almost impossible to cure with antibiotics. Clostridium difficile, Pseudomonas aerogiosa...

Bottom line: Don't use vaccines as a ex machina fix for a disease in scifi. They only work for prevention, and take at least days to work, which is far too slow for most narrative purposes. Gross yourself out reading about unusual parasites or fungal diseases and come up with something more original and more horrifying than a virus.

And vaccinate your kids. And yourself

[theculturedmarxist]

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

On May 25 of this year, JAMA published Development of a Definition of Postacute Sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 Infection (“Definition”), an “original investigation” whose authors were drawn from the RECOVER Consortium, an initiative of the National Institutes of Health (NIH)[1]. This was an initially welcome development for Long Covid sufferers and activists, since questions had arisen about what exactly patients were getting for the billion dollars RECOVER was appropriated. From STAT:

The federal government has burned through more than $1 billion to study long Covid, an effort to help the millions of Americans who experience brain fog, fatigue, and other symptoms after recovering from a coronavirus infection.

There’s basically nothing to show for it.

The National Institutes of Health hasn’t signed up a single patient to test any potential treatments — despite a clear mandate from Congress to study them.

Instead, the NIH spent the majority of its money on broader, observational research that won’t directly bring relief to patients. But it still hasn’t published any findings from the patients who joined that study, almost two years after it started.

(The STAT article, NC hot take here on April 20, is worth reading in full.) Perhaps unfairly to NIH — one is tempted to say that the mountain has labored, and brought forth a coprolite — a CERN-level headcount may explain both RECOVER’s glacial pace, and its high cost:

That’s a lot of violin lessons for a lot of little Madisons!

“Definition” falls resoundingly into the research (and not treatment) bucket. In this post, I will first look at the public relations debacle (if debacle it was) that immediately followed its release; then I will look at its problematic methodology, and briefly conclude. (Please note that I feel qualified to speak on public relations and institutional issues; very much less so on research methodology, which actually involves (dread word) statistics. So I hope readers will bear with me and correct where necessary.)

The Public Relations Debacle

Our famously free press instantly framed “Definition” as a checklist of Long Covid (LC) symptoms. Here are the headlines. For the common reader:

12 key symptoms define long Covid, new study shows, bringing treatments closer CNN Long COVID is defined by these 12 symptoms, new study finds CBS Scientists Identify 12 Major Symptoms of Long Covid Smithsonian These 12 symptoms may define long COVID, new study finds PBS News Hour These Are the 12 Major Symptoms of Long COVID Daily Beast

(We will get to the actual so-called “12[2] Symptoms” when we look at methodology.) And for readers in the health industry:

For the first time, researchers identify 12 symptoms of long covid Chief Healthcare Executive 12 symptoms of long COVID, FDA Paxlovid approval & mpox vaccines with Andrea Garcia, JD, MPH AMA Update Finally! These 12 symptoms define long COVID, say researchers ALM Benefits Pro

With these last three, we can easily see the CEO handing a copy of their “12 symptoms” article to a doctor, the doctor double-checking that headline against the AMA Update’s headline, and incorporating the NIH-branded 12-point checklist into their case notes going forward, and the medical coders at the insurance company (I love that word, “benefits”) nodding approvingly. At last, the clinicians have a checklist! They know what to do!

We’ll see why the whole notion of a checklist with twelve items is wrong and off-point for what “Definition” was actually, or at least putatively, trying to do, but for now it’s easy to see why the press went down this path (or over this cliff). Here is the press release from NIH that accompanied “Definition”‘s publication in JAMA:

Researchers examined data from 9,764 adults, including 8,646 who had COVID-19 and 1,118 who did not have COVID-19. They assessed more than 30 symptoms across multiple body areas and organs and applied statistical analyses that identified 12 symptoms that most set apart those with and without long COVID: post-exertional malaise, fatigue, brain fog, dizziness, gastrointestinal symptoms, heart palpitations, issues with sexual desire or capacity, loss of smell or taste, thirst, chronic cough, chest pain, and abnormal movements.

They then established a scoring system based on patient-reported symptoms. By assigning points to each of the 12 symptoms, the team gave each patient a score based on symptom combinations. With these scores in hand, researchers identified a meaningful threshold for identifying participants with long COVID. They also found that certain symptoms occurred together and defined four subgroups or “clusters” with a range of impacts on health

So there are 12 symptoms, right? Just like the headline says? Certainly, that’s what a normal reader would take away. And if a temporally pressed reporter goes to the JAMA original and searches on “12”, they find this:

Using the full cohort, LASSO identified 12 symptoms with corresponding scores ranging from 1 to 8 (Table 2). The optimal PASC score threshold used was 12 or greater

And if the reporter goes further and finds Table 2 (we’ll get there when we look at methodology), they will see, yes, 12 symptoms (in rank order identified by something called LASSO).

So it’s easy to see how the headlines were written as they were written, and how the newsroom wrote the stories as they did. The wee problem: The twelve symptoms are not meant to be used clinically, for diagnosis.[3], Lisa McCorkell was the patient representative[4] for the paper, and has this to say:

Nevertheless, the “12 symptoms” are out of the barn and in the next county, and as a result, you get search results like this:

It’s very easy to imagine a harried ER room nurse hearing “12 Symptoms” on the TV news[5], doublechecking with a Google search, and then making clinical decisions based on a checklist not fit for purpose. Or, for that matter, a doctor.

Now, to be fair to the authors, once one grasps the idea that symptoms, even clusters of symptoms, can exist, and still not be suitable for diagnosis by a clinician, the careful language of “Definition” is clear, starting with the title: “Development of a Definition.” And in the Meaning section of the Abstract:

A framework for identifying PASC cases based on symptoms is a first step to defining PASC as a new condition. These findings require iterative refinement that further incorporates clinical features to arrive at actionable definitions of PASC.

Well and good, but do you see “framework” in the headlines? “Iterative”? “First step”? No? Now, I’d like to exonerate the authors of “Definitions” — “They’re just scientists!” — for that debacle, but I cannot, completely. The authors are well-compensated, sophisticated, and aware professionals; PMC, in fact. I cannot believe that the Cochrane “fools gold” antimask study debacle went unobserved at NIH, especially in the press office. How was it possible that “Definitions” was simply… printed as it was, and no strategic consideration given to shaping the likely coverage?[6] One obvious precautionary measure would have been a preprint, but for reasons unknown to me, NIH did not do that. A second obvious precautionary measure would have been to have the patient representative approve the press release. Ditto. Now let us turn to methodology.

The Problematic Methodology

First, I will look at issues with Table 2, which presents the key twelve-point checklist, and names the algorithm (although without explaining it). After that, I will branch out to a few larger issues. Again I issue a caveat that I’m not a Long Covid maven or a statistics maven, and I hope readers will correct and clarify where needed.

Here is Table 2:

First, some copy editing trifles (highlighted). On “PASC”: As WebMD says: “You might know this as ‘long COVID.’ Experts have coined a new term for it: post-acute sequelae SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC).” Those lovable scamps, always inventing impenetrable jargon! (Bourdieu would chuckle at this.) On “Dizzines”: Come on. A serious journal doesn’t let a typo like that slip through (maybe they’re accustomed to fixing the preprints?). On “Supplement 3”: The text is highlighted as a link, but clicking it brings up the image, and doesn’t take you to the Supplement. These small errors are important[7], because they indicate that no editor took more than a cursory look at the most important table in the paper. On “LASSO,” hold that thought.

Second, the Covid Action Network points out that some obvious, and serious, symptoms are missing from the list:

[T]he next attempts at diagnostic criteria should take into account existing literature that shows more specifically defined symptoms for Long Covid, from objective findings. (E.g. PoTS, Vestibular issues, migraine, vs more vague symptoms like “headache” or “dizziness.) [The Long Covid Action Project (LCAP)] noticed that while [Post-Extertional Malaise (PEM)] was used as a specific symptom with a high score to produce PASC-positive results, other suites of symptoms, like those in the neurologic category, could have produced an equal or higher score than PEM if questionnaires had not separated neuro-symptoms into multiple subtypes and reduced their total scores. This alone could have created a more scientifically accurate picture of the Long Covid population.

Third, these symptoms — missing, from the patient perspective; to be iterated from the researcher’s perspective, at least one would hope — are the result of “Definition”‘s methodology:

Fourth, I would argue focus on the “most clearly provable effects” — as opposed to organ damage — is a result of the “LASSO” algorithm named in Table 2. I did a good deal of searching on LASSO, and discovered that most of the examples I could find, even the “real world” ones, were examples of how to run LASSO programs, as opposed to selecting the LASSO algorithm as opposed to others. So that was discouraging. I believe — reinforcing the caveats, plural, given above — that I literally searched on “LASSO” “child of five” (“Explain it to me like I’m five”) to finally come up with this:

Lasso Regression is an essential variable selection technique for eliminating unnecessary variables from your model.

This method can be highly advantageous when some variables do not contribute any variance (predictability) to the model. Lasso Regression will automatically set their coefficients to zero in situations like this, excluding them from the analysis. For example, let’s say you have a skiing dataset and are building a model to see how fast someone goes down the mountain. This dataset has a variable referencing the user’s ability to make basketball shots. This obviously does not contribute any variance to the model – Lasso Regression will quickly identify this and eliminate these variables.

Since variables are being eliminated with Lasso Regression, the model becomes more interpretable and less complex.

Even more important than the model’s complexity is the shrinking of the subspace of your dataset. Since we eliminate these variables, our dataset shrinks in size (dimensionality). This is insanely advantageous for most machine learning models and has been shown to increase model accuracy in things like linear regression and least squares.

Since LC is said to have over 200 candidates for symptoms, you can see why a scientist trying to get their arms around the problem would be very happy to shrink those candidates to 12. But is that true to the disease?

Because LASSO (caveats, caveats) has one problem. From the same source:

One crucial aspect to consider is that Lasso Regression does not handle multicollinearity well. Multicollinearity occurs when two or more highly correlated predictor variables make it difficult to determine their individual contributions to the model.

Amplifying:

Lasso can be sensitive to multicollinearity, which is when two or more predictors are highly correlated. In this case, Lasso may select one of the correlated predictors and exclude the other [“set their coefficients to zero”], even if both are important for predicting the target variable.

As Ted Nelson wrote, “Everything is deeply intertwingled” (i.e., multicollinear), and if there’s one thing we know about LC, it’s that it’s a disease of the whole body taken as a system, and not of a single organ:

There are some who seek to downplay Long Covid by saying the list of 200 possible symptoms makes it impossible to accurately diagnose and that it could be encompassing illnesses people might have gone on to develop anyway, but there are sound biological reasons for this condition to affect the body in so many different ways.

Angiotensin-converting enzyme receptor 2 (ACE2) is the socket SARS-CoV-2 plugs into to infect human cells. The virus can use other mechanisms to enter cells=, but ACE2 is the most common method. ACE2 is widely expressed in the human body, with highest levels of expression in small intestine, testis, kidneys, heart, thyroid, and adipose (fat) tissue, but it is found almost everywhere, including the blood, spleen, bone marrow, brain, blood vessels, muscle, lungs, colon, liver, bladder, and adrenal gland

Given how common the ACE2 receptor is, it is unsurprising SARS-CoV-2 can cause a very wide range of symptoms.

In other words, multicollinearity everywhere. Not basketball players vs. skiiers at all.

So is LASSO even the right algorithm to handle entwinglement, like ACE2 receptors in every organ? Are there statistics mavens in the readership who can clarify? With that, I will leave the shaky ground of statistics and Table II, and raise two other issues.

First, it’s clear that the population selected for “Definitions” is unrepresentative of the LC population as a whole:

If the patients in “Definition” are not so ill, that might also account for Table 2’s missing symptoms.

Second, “Definition”‘s questionnaires should include measures of severity, and don’t:

Conclusion

The Long Covid Action Project (materials here) is running a letter writing campaign: “Request for NIH to Retract RECOVER Study Regarding 12 Symptom PASC Score For Long Covid.” As of this writing, “only 3,082 more until our goal of 25,600.” You might consider dropping them a line.

Back to the checklist for one moment. One way to look at the checklist is — we’re talking [drumroll] the PMC here — as a set of complex eligibility requirements, whose function is, as usual, gatekeeping and denial:

what they did is create basically a means test to figure out a dx but for smthg that is still not fully understood. it's premature and rly limited, & this will only further aid ppl already dismissive of lc — Wendi Muse (@MuseWendi) June 3, 2023

If you score 12, HappyVille! If you score 11, Pain City! And no consideration given to the actual organ damage in your body. And after the last three years following CDC, I find it really, really difficult to give NIH the benefit of the doubt. If one believed that NIH was acting in bad faith, one would see “Definition” as a way to keep the funding gravy train rolling, and the “12 Symptoms” headlines as having the immediate and happy outcome of denying care to the unfit. Stay safe out there, and let’s save some lives!

NOTES

[1] Oddly, the JAMA paper is not yet listed on RECOVER’s publications page.

[2] “12” is such a clickbait-worthy brainworm. “12 Days of Christmas,” “12 apostles,” “12 steps,” “12 months,” “12 signs of the zodiac,” etc. One might wonder where if the number had been “9” or “14” the uptake would have been so instant.

[3] To be fair to the sources, most of them mention this: Not CBS, Chief Health Care Executive, or the Daily Beast, but CNN in paragraph 51, Smithsonian (9), PBS (20), AMA Update (10), and Benefits Pro (17).

[4] There was only one patient representative for the paper:

One seems low, especially given the headcount for the project.

[5] I was not able to find a nursing journal that covered the story.

[6] Unless it was, of course.

[7] Samuel Johnson: “When I take up the end of a web, and find it packthread, I do not expect, by looking further, to find embroidery.”

[hellodenisestuff]

Sept 10-17, 2023

I had planned to write this blog on Substack but it got too complicated for me so I will continue these African Adventure posts on Tumblr.com.

This will be the journey to Kenya to participate in the volunteer program of African Impact in the Pardamat conservancy of the Kenya National Wildlife Reserve, Masai Mara.

What a long journey from Hawaii to Kenya. Fortunately I have a very good friend, Maggie, in Pacific who I get to visit when I am passing through San Francisco. I stayed two nights in her delightful company and rested up before the long flight to Kenya.

I arrived several days several days after I was exposed to Covid at work. I wore a mask on the flight but where 5 days had passed we thought we were safe, which proved to be true, but I was not fully comfortable till the 14th day had passed. I never got it. Hooray! Those around me could breathe a sigh of relief as well. I am vaccinated up to the gills so maybe that saved me?

Anyway, I digress. i flew KLM. airways which is marvelous. Great service. Seems they were always offering food or drink or hot towels. I watched 4 movies on the first leg which ended in Amsterdam for a three hour layover.

Because I get wheelchair service, I did not find my friend Joanne who was also traveling on the same flight to our destination in Kenya till we were ready to board the next flight for the final leg of our journey.

We got in somewhere around 10:30 PM after an aborted landing because there was debris on the landing strip! Finally after circling and losing our place in the landing line we did so.

Went thru the usual immigration and customs, again not seeing Joanne. I went outside and waited and waited, and was getting worried. A nice young soldier asked what I needed and he called the man who was to-pick us up, who was with Bonfire Adventures and tours. He found us and we waited some more. Finally Joanne appeared and we walked to the car and were driven to Masai Lodge near the town of Rongai. It is on the Southern border of the National Park. The drive took over an hour. The last 3 miles over an horrendous dirt road. We arrived around 1 AM pooped but happy to be back in Kenya.

We love that lodge. It. is mainly for the local people. Despite its name, it is run primarily by Samburu people. the Samburu are cousins to the Maasai. The lodge looks out over the Nairobi Game Park. Animals come into the large green area below the lodge which sits on a hill. There we see warthogs, antelope and baboons. There are tree hyrax and rock hyrax busy in the surrounding areas. The tree hyrax are quite used to people. Cute little creatures resembling a bunny without the long ears.

The 4 nights at the lodge allowed us to get over jet lag and start to get used to the altitude. It is like Denver, a mile high.

I was able to visit my dear friend, Dr. Paul Sayer, my colleague from teaching at the veterinary School in Nairobi back in 1967-1969. It was delightful to be with him and catch up on our lives and reminisce about the old days. (See-my book African Sojourns on Amazon.com to see what we did back then…)

The next day Joanne and I went to visit her friend, Rachel Kabue, who founded and runs The Cat Sanctuary in Nairobi. There are about 170 cats there now as she found homes for close to 130 of the most fit ones recently. Some there are very thin, and I fear may have some sort of blood parasite or Feline leukemia. However most are quite fit; they are all sweet and get along. She also has rescued a few dogs who live together with the cats. It is scrupulously clean with no odor.

Rachel, Some of the cats and dogs, Denise and friend, and Joanne and another rescue.

I spent one day sleeping a lot. Another day we had a guided walk by a Samburu man in full regalia looking very exotic and handsome in his colorful short dress like outfit with knee high socks and beaded ornaments and carrying the spear in case we ran into any aggressive animals. As it happened we only saw Impala and some monkeys and baboons. We met up with two Masai gentlemen in Western clothes who ran a nearby lodge and were friendly and fun. They all wanted photos which Joanne took but I have not got them right now. Will send next time.

The African Impact Driver came for us to transport us to Brackenhurst Conference Center in the Highlands in a town called Limuru. It is at 7000 feet so it has rather brisk evenings. It always tickles me when there, as after dinner, I come back to a bed with a hot water bottle in it. There we rested till the next morning where we would start out at 8:30 AM for the long drive to Pardamat.

I will write more tomorrow about the first week at the volunteer placement.

[emoclone]

no okay but this is so fucking frustrating because when some kid sat next to me in class today wiping his nose the whole time i was NERVOUS, and in the past i have literally walked out of classes over less than that; but i'm trying to ✨manage my anxiety✨ so i sat in that whole two hour class next to that sniffling, unmasked kid (who was next to a different kid whose roommate currently has covid) and then this afternoon he texted the class group chat saying he tested positive for covid and i am fucking LIVID that i didn't just walk out of that class because getting an education isn't fucking worth possibly getting ANOTHER lifelong disability

and i also hate how "understanding" i tend to be about these things, like i'm really mad at that kid because he even said he took a test yesterday that was negative and i'm like ONE NEGATIVE TEST WHEN YOURE SYMPTOMATIC DOESNT MEAN SHIT, DONT COME TO CLASS WITH SYMPTOMS (but this school doesn't even have a policy about not coming to class with symptoms, and i honestly want to maul the administration to death over their lack of covid policies given that we are RIGHT next to a major metropolitan area with LOTS of people and deaths) but anyway i'm trying not to hate this kid individually bc i know it's a systemic problem that 1) every major news outlet and politician has been telling people it's okay to do whatever and "go back to normal" and 2) college students are, in most cases, strongly discouraged from missing X number of classes or else they'll fail the class. But our professor seems like he'd understand if someone missed a class or two because of LITERAL COVID!!!

and i hate that i feel the need to be nice to this kid who's putting my health at risk. i wear a mask! other people in my class wear a mask! this kid, who was actively symptomatic, wasn't wearing a mask!! and honestly i want to throw rocks at him about it!!!!!!

AND!!! i just made an appointment to get an updated covid vaccine, and if i have to postpone that because of GETTING COVID i'm going to become the joker. this is my villain origin story. i'm going to shoot the earth into the sun because humankind doesn't fucking know how to behave and it's too late to fix it. sayonara you weeabo shits

[kylesvariouslistsandstuff]

DreamWorks’ Great Reset?

This looks to have been a banner year for DreamWorks Animation LLC.

Pierre Perifel’s THE BAD GUYS was a critical and commercial success, once again a showcase of their software and how they can produce such dynamic visuals without spending as much as Disney Animation and Pixar do each time out on features. The incoming PUSS IN BOOTS: THE LAST WISH, the belated sequel to the SHREK spin-off from Joel Crawford, is already a critical darling, already has a Golden Globe nomination, and appears to be Universal’s over-all big push for the animated feature Oscar. It’s sure to make some decent money, too!

Universal in general seems to have had a fantastic animated year, when you add in 3/4 of SING 2′s gross, as that movie was a late December opening. Then you have MINIONS: THE RISE OF GRU, which is the highest-earning animated movie since the 2019 release of FROZEN II... Not too shabby. The Walt Disney Company, by contrast, had some real pains this year. I liked all three of the big-time animated movies released by them this year (not counting D+ pics like RESCUE RANGERS, the new WIMPY KID, and the NIGHT AND THE MUSEUM continuation), but the way they were handled and released didn’t work out. Bob Chapek is out as CEO, and a restructuring of his way of running the movie end of the business is already underway. Even though COVID-19 is still a thing, audiences have returned en masse to the movies... Especially proven by the biggest blockbusters this year, from TOP GUN: MAVERICK to JURASSIC WORLD DOMINION to Disney’s own BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER... TURNING RED, LIGHTYEAR, and STRANGE WORLD could’ve definitely benefited from that, but for various reasons... Did not.

But not Universal... They weathered the storm, they smartly delayed pictures and stayed committed to the theatrical release. MINIONS 2, for example, was pretty much ready to go for a summer 2020 release. After the outbreak of COVID-19, they pushed it to summer 2021, but it seemed like things - even with vaccines out - still had a ways to go, they pushed it to summer 2022... Probably the best thing they did for that feature... I couldn’t imagine it making the kind of money it did this past summer, in summer 2021.

DreamWorks is a curious case, really. DreamWorks had many growing pains in the early 2010s. Being independent, each movie they made had to be a big hit in order to keep the place afloat. Problem was, whatever they were doing at the time... And being based in Cali didn’t help, it lead to their animated movies costing $125m minimum... That puts a ridiculous strain on a movie like, say, TURBO or MR. PEABODY & SHERMAN. If those had cost half of what they ended up costing, they’d be considered minor hits... But with those budgets, they were crushing flops. Animators and staff bore the brunt of it, too. Layoffs, pictures being cancelled (R.I.P. ME AND MY SHADOW), restructurings... An entire studio shut down, too. R.I.P. Pacific Data Images.

Comcast bought DreamWorks in 2016, and the studio’s distribution deal with 20th Century Fox was cut off the year after, with a few more movies being put into limbo (THE CROODS 2) or outright cancelled. (LARRIKINS) It was a rocky transition, and it seemed like the game plan and leadership changed a lot. For a little while, Chris DeFaria was heading up animation and some projects with a lot of potential got optioned or even slated... Only to go the way of the quagga. The studio took 2018 off (which was when LARRIKINS would’ve opened), and came back with a HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON threequel with a baffling ending (though it nonetheless scored great reviews and solid box office) and a co-production called ABOMINABLE. Somewhere down the line, DeFaria was out, and later in came from Margie Cohn from DreamWorks’ TV animation division... Running both wings, now. COVID-19 cut into TROLLS WORLD TOUR, which did stellar business as a PVOD title in April 2020. Universal tested a theatrical/PVOD strategy with THE CROODS: A NEW AGE, which paid off nicely.

TROLLS 2 and CROODS 2 marked the beginning of DreamWorks’ new way of budgeting their animated movies. CROODS 2 especially. The first movie cost them $135m to make back in 2013, the sequel? $65m... And it looked just as good as the original. 2021 saw the release of SPIRIT: UNTAMED, which didn’t do well, but THE BOSS BABY: FAMILY BUSINESS scored okay enough as a hybrid release. THE BAD GUYS was their first big-time theatrical release in a while, and it performed pretty well! Now PUSS IN BOOTS Dos looks to really make a wallop, and be their biggest pic in a while.

In the lead up the film, they’ve created an all-new logo that showcases characters from their past films/series. There’s talk I hear from the trenches that indicates that they are on their way to a grand reset of sorts, now that they’ve found their footing.

Though surprisingly, their slate seems rather incomplete.

They have two features coming out next year, and the only one that got any kind of formal announcement is the 2nd of the batch... TROLLS BAND TOGETHER, which is currently slated for November 17, 2023. That title had been quietly rumored for some time, but European Universal documents confirm it is so. The picture also seems to be releasing earlier in territories like Switzerland, mid-October. Wouldn’t be surprised if it moves there in the U.S. as well, given that the current date puts it five days before Disney Animation’s centennial celebration feature WISH. We’ll have to see...

A feature called MEET THE GILMANS (or is it GILLMANS? I’ve seen two spellings of it) has been quietly rumored for quite some time, too, and has popped up - mysteriously - on the resumes of DWA staffers. Little is known about it, apparently it has to do with a family of sea monsters. That’s kind of similar to the Pixar picture LUCA, but animated movies with similar premises are a regular occurrence. Not everything is an ANTZ/A BUG’S LIFE scenario... Anyways, it’s pretty much all we know plus a few other things. An Italian Universal recently executive confirmed the movie’s existence and it being a summer release, despite no U.S. records showing that. Universal did previously have the date 6/30/2023 reserved for Illumination���s Benjamin Renner comedy MIGRATION, but then moved that to the Christmas season... Not at all suggesting that a DreamWorks movie had taken its place. There was a DreamWorks movie set for late March of 2023 at one point, but Illumination’s SUPER MARIO BROS. movie took the first weekend of April instead. Additionally, that Swiss release calendar that got out indicates that MEET THE GILMANS indeed opens in late June of 2023...

So GILMANS is our mystery movie here. It exists, yet it kind of doesn’t. This, strangely, isn’t new for DreamWorks... But this close to release and we know next to nothing about it? THE BAD GUYS had gotten a similar rollout. I reckon once PUSS IN BOOTS Dos opens, DreamWorks and Universal announce GILMAN as their summer 2023 picture, or even unveil the new slate of movies that has been quietly prepared all this time...

The only other movie on their slate is KUNG FU PANDA 4, currently scheduled for March 8, 2024. Notably, that date places it after Pixar’s ELIO (3/1/2024) and a few weeks before Sony’s SPIDER-MAN: BEYOND THE SPIDER-VERSE (3/29/2024)... Another tidbit that surfaced concerns KUNG FU PANDA 4, actually... Joel Crawford is directing. The man seems to be the DreamWorks Franchise Reviver of sorts. Directed CROODS: A NEW AGE, this new PUSS IN BOOTS movie, and now a KUNG FU PANDA that arrives eight years after its predecessor. Will he be the one to bring MADAGASCAR back as well? DreamWorks did have a MADAGASCAR 4 in the works that they scrapped during their growing pains years, who’s to say that can’t be revived? After all, a different version of PUSS IN BOOTS 2 was also shelved right around the same time as that MADAGASCAR 4 project. CROODS 2 was also a shelf-and-restart situation.

But what else? I hear their game plan is an original and a sequel every calendar year. 2022 filled that quota: BAD GUYS (yes, I know, a book adaptation... But not a sequel to something. That’s what I mean by “original”) and PUSS IN BOOTS.

Next year: MEET THE GILMANS and TROLLS BAND TOGETHER.

2024... KUNG FU PANDA 4... And?

What’s a possible candidate? In the recent years, DreamWorks has announced a plethora of optioned material and original stories, and many of them disappeared. At one time we could’ve seen an adaptation of THE WIZARDS OF ONCE - a book series by HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON author Cressida Cowell - come out, or an adaptation of MICE AND MYSTICS. In 2020, two projects were announced: An adaptation of Dav Pilkey’s DOG MAN (same man who created CAPTAIN UNDERPANTS, which DreamWorks adapted into a movie in 2017), and an adaptation of Thomas Lennon’s RONAN BOYLE AND THE BRIDGE OF RIDDLES... There’s also an untitled picture that’s to be made in collaboration with Unanimous Media.

Out of all these, I reckon it’s either one or the other. DOG MAN could go through given how CAPTAIN UNDERPANTS did for DreamWorks and the additional stuff it spawned (such as the Netflix series), and the fun style of Pilkey’s work is already right in line with what DreamWorks does. It also has a director in Peter Hastings, who worked on several TV projects for DreamWorks, including the CAPTAIN UNDERPANTS stuff. He was also - supposedly - at one point eyed to direct the UNDERPANTS movie, and at one time... The first HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON!

RONAN BOYLE has Fergal Reilly as its director, and original author Thomas Lennon as screenwriter. I’m leaning on this one being their other 2024 release, likely a fall debut. Late September. DreamWorks seems to like that slot a lot. CROODS 2 was aiming for it in 2020 until COVID-19 pushed it to Thanksgiving, BOSS BABY 2 was looking at it for 2021 but got moved up to July 2021, PUSS IN BOOTS could’ve been a September 2022 release but it went to this coming Christmas week...

Curiously, Universal has one other animated movie set for 2024... February 9, 2024 to be exact... But no specification. Illumination? DreamWorks? Something else? Universal does have the rights to the LEGO movies and will make the next one, be it THE LEGO MOVIE 3 or something else... But I don’t know if it’s ready for February 2024... I reckon KUNG FU PANDA 4 moves to that slot instead, leaving March to ELIO and SPIDER-VERSE. Illumination releases DESPICABLE ME 4 in summer 2024, I think it’ll be their only picture for that year. What else do they even have in development? A picture called BIG TREE, an untitled Pharrell Williams films that feels like it was announced eons ago, and a third SECRET LIFE OF PETS movie.

Anyways, here’s what I see so far...

06/30/2023: MEET THE GILMANS

11/17/2023: TROLLS BAND TOGETHER

02/09/2024: KUNG FU PANDA 4

09/27/2024: RONAN BOYLE

2025: SHREK 5

2025: DOG MAN

There’s also a third BOSS BABY movie in the works, and a third CROODS as well. Not sure where those will all fit in when all is said and done, but... We’ll only know from either Universal or DreamWorks themselves. Interestingly, the Swiss slate also adds late September 2025 and late September 2026 for “Untitled Animated Event Films”... I’m pretty sure those will be for DreamWorks movies, and in the U.S., the exact dates would probably be 9/26/2025 and 9/25/2026. Illumination typically takes the summer and Christmas slots, though sometimes they share. MARIO opens in April of next year, with GILMANS in the June slot, and we’ve got PUSS IN BOOTS opening in a few days... But I think everything goes back to the usual after next year.

So...

06/30/2023: MEET THE GILMANS (DreamWorks)

11/17/2023: TROLLS BAND TOGETHER (DreamWorks)

12/22/2023: MIGRATION (Illumination)

02/09/2024: KUNG FU PANDA 4 (DreamWorks)

07/03/2024: DESPICABLE ME 4 (Illumination)

09/27/2024: RONAN BOYLE (DreamWorks)

Early 2025: Untitled LEGO Movie (LEGO Group)

Spring 2025: SHREK 5 (DreamWorks)

Summer 2025: Untitled Illumination

09/26/2025: DOG MAN (DreamWorks)

Christmas 2025: Untitled Illumination

Spring 2026: THE CROODS 3 (DreamWorks)

Summer 2026: Untitled Illumination

09/25/2026: Untitled DreamWorks Original

It was fun to predict this stuff back in the day, so... We shall see.

[itsbeenclaireified]

Y’all it’s been a whirlwind.

Let’s start with a small update, I went to Japan and it was amazing. Highly recommend! It was very easy to navigate around and everyone was very nice to us tourists.

Maybe I’ll make another post with just some pictures because it was so pretty and wonderful. There were however some challenges: we had travel delays because of a typhoon and then about half way thru the trip I came down with what I was obviously hoping was hayfever and upon testing at home was Covid.

My mom was also struggling the first half of the trip with like…things not meeting her expectations? And admittedly our tour guide was not doing great work with communicating or organizing or honestly even counting our too big group. So she wasn’t eating a lot and then there was a day she snapped at me, and while later she apologized it was not for snapping at me. It was because she thought she had embarrassed me when she yelled at the tour guide. But then I got sick and her mood improved! Which is always sort of a mindfuck, but it also was nice to not spend my mental energy worrying if she was having fun on her dream trip.

So yeah, I came home and while I was feeling better I had wanted to go into my office to meet my coworker’s baby. And because I was congested I was like, I should test just in case. Even if it had been negative I would have worn a mask and stayed back but it was sort of a shock to be positive. Because denial is a great thing and while there had been a single day that I had the same body aches I had after I got my vaccine…I thought it made since because we had spend like 6 hrs on the cement floor of the train station because of delays. But nope, it was Covid.

So I came home to a single day of work and was like hey guys maybe I can’t go on this business trip next week to Kansas. Which I warned them before the trip too and everyone was like nah it’ll be fine. And then BOOM I’m positive and I’m like uhhh guys idk that I will be allowed into hospital to watch this procedure because of the vid, can someone else go? Crickets.

And then a lot of “oh well policy says you’ll be at day 10 so you should be fine” and “let’s just play it by ear” etc. and lucky now I have tested negative twice and also my symptoms are almost completely resolved. But I can only thank myself for completely resting all weekend to get there.

Like…only got 500 steps total on Friday rested. And then I had to be like is my back stiff because I’m sick? Or is my back stiff because I haven’t moved in literal days? And am I tired because of jet lag? Or am I tired because of Covid? Or traveling? Or the long day at work? And we’ll literally never know.

Which also, I used this app called Timeshifter I saw on TikTok and it worked GREAT! I felt very little jet lag. Or at least not the type of jet lag that made me drag my feet and not want to do things.

So catch me in Wichita tonight, and being sad not to be home with my kitty.

My adorable nurse over the weekend.

And an amuse bouche of photos from Japan.

[bikeit]

Packing: Van-Supported + Hotel Tour

(part 3 of 5) I'm gradually going through past trip notebooks and jotting down all my packing lists down in one place. I'm writing out my packing list for an upcoming trip now so I figured I might as well copy and paste it onto the blog as well...

In 2022 I went on a multi-week vehicle-supported stay-in-hotels tour: a ~1200 mile ride through Vietnam and Cambodia with TdA Global Cycling. Typically for this type of trip there’s a support van that transports one large duffel bag to the next night’s hotel for you, freeing you to just carry daily essentials on the bike.

The extra capacity combined with our more remote travel including gravel/dirt roads led me to pack heavier. My packing list for this type, climate, and length of trip (retroactively revised based on what I wished I’d had, or brought but didn’t use):

Clothes:

In general, I packed enough clothes to do laundry every six days (this bike tour was organized so we’d ride at most five full days in a row between days off), plus overnight hotel-room-sink laundry for crucial fast-drying items, and wool Ts I can wear multiple days.

Bike clothes:

(3-4x) padded bike shorts [two pairs is enough if washing in the sink each night, but when it’s raining or there isn’t an easy place to hang it to dry it’s nice to be able to take a day off laundry]

(6x) socks

(2x) shorts with pockets (“mountain bike style”) to wear over padded shorts, also fine to walk around town in

(2x) light merino wool t-shirts to both bike and walk around in

(1x) synthetic souvenir jersey from some past trip (conversation starter!)

mesh t-shirt to bike in on the hottest days (there isn't much I find comfortable to bike in on 90-100F sunny + humid days, but the AeroTech Delta Cooling T-shirt was pretty good)

lightweight cycle cap

bandana (can soak in water to cool down on the hottest days)

sun sleeves

arm warmers, leg warmers, leg sun shields [never needed, omit in this climate]

fingerless gloves

[tbd future] full finger waterproof gloves– there was one cold and rainy day at elevation they would have been appreciated

general-purpose bike-and-walk shoes

backup pair of shoes (in case first get wet and don’t dry by the next day)-- this only came up twice after very rainy days, but I was glad to have them. I save an ancient worn-out pair of shoes just for this.

flip-flops / crocs

[tbd future] hiking shoes with better arch support, or insoles [would be bulky, but on one many-hour hike on a rest day I was wishing I had these]

[tbd future] bike helmet brim (e.g. Da Brim) [wished I had more of a helmet visor some days, and this was great on the past Utah MTB dirt tour – on the other hands, it also catches the wind if biking faster]

[tbd future] hi-vis biking vest, especially for days with some dark road tunnels

Other Clothes:

gym shorts to change into after ride

(2x) long pants (one lpermethrin treated since I was in a malaria zone)

(3x) light t-shirts

(2x) long sleeve button up shirt (one quick-dry hiking style, one ‘dressy’)

bathing suit

brimmed hat

light pack towel in case of roadside swimming holes [didn’t end up carrying daily or using, may omit]

Wet Weather Gear

hi-vis yellow rain coat

[tbd future] loose rain poncho for rain in hot + humid weather, instead

rain pants and shoe covers [ineffective and sweaty after hours of riding, getting wet in a warm climate is OK, omitting]

Documents + Paper:

photocopies of passport ID page, visas, vaccination cards, travel insurance in a ziploc bag (I carry copies on me, leave originals in hotel bag)

high-level maps for the regions I’m going through

pocket phrase guide or one-page printout of common phrases and menu items

local travel guide

books / kindle

notebooks and pens

Medical + Hygiene

toiletries kit

on-bike travel medkit (including moleskin pads, ibuprofen, immodium)

antimalarials

antibiotic prescription

a few rapid Covid tests

masks

dry soap sheets

toilet paper + wet wipes in a ziploc bag

(2x) sunscreen

(2x) chamois cream

DEET

Basic Bike Tools

As per my standard “on the bike” list:

travel pump

patch kit

spare tube

tire levers

multitool including chain break and master link

grease-cutting hand wipes

More Bicycle Spare Parts and Tools

Since we’d be out in rural areas without easy access to bike shops, I packed additional parts in my hotel bag, as on a supported tour there was an emergency vehicle in case of a major breakdown):

(2x) spare tires (I did end up using one of them, when one tire accumulated multiple larger punctures)

(5x) spare tubes (managed to use 3 plus some patches on a month-long tour with moderately rough roads)

bicycle lube (Boeshield T-9 or other), double-bagged in two ziplocs in case of leak (the bottle did leak once-- I'm glad I bagged it)

rag for chain

(2x) spare brake cables and housings

(2x) spare shift cables and housings

(2x pairs) brake pads

(1x) spare set of pedals (likely unnecessary, omit next time)

(4x) spare spokes (the right length for the front wheel and drive and non-drive sides of the rear wheel– I had to chat with the original bike manufacturer to double-check these)

8mm allen L-key (stiffer than multitool, for pedals / seat during bike unpacking)

spare chain and master link

extra moist towelettes

zip ties

duct tape

Food 

This kind of supported tour generally offers a midday lunch / snack popup by the side of the road, and periodic towns where we could buy snacks, but I packed about one snack for every two days just to have some familiar options (peanut butter and dried pineapple) as well as some hydration salts.

Electronics:

(2x) outlet adapters

(2x) USB chargers

cables

small USB battery pack (enough to charge everything for one night-- occasionally a hotel didn't have enough working plugs)

bike computer / GPS

backup distance-only bike computer [didn't use, the phone is already my backup for my GPS, omit]

bright daylight-visible taillight (I like the Cygolite Hotshot Pro series)

bike headling

headlamp [somewhat redundant with headlight and phone, may omit]

waterproof camera [nice for taking photos on rainy days while keeping phone tucked away in a plastic bag, but may omit next time]

[tbd future] ipad or tiny laptop, if part of a longer trip where I may want to do some work or writing

Bags:

duffel bag (I've been happy with my 100L Patagonia Black Hole)

hip pack (for extra water (Evoc Hip Pack Pro = 1.5L), snacks, toiletries on bike [may omit now that I have a small frame bag]

day pack for hikes (don't need both this and hip pack)

single pannier for carrying clothing on rainy or cold days (usually not needed) or if going on a DIY side trip -- omit on next trip to simplify and allow me to remove bike rear rack as well

stem bag (for sunglasses, sunscreen, extra water)

top tube bag (snacks)

Other Misc

backup pair of glasses

glasses wipes

sunglasses

[tbd future] clothesline for hotel room / balcony: paracord + binder clips + two carabiners

[tbd future] ultralight sleeping bag liner (for a niche problem: there were a few days when it was too hot to sleep under a comforter, but the hotel didn’t provide a top sheet, and bugs or aggressive breeze from the hotel fan on my skin were distracting when trying to sleep, maybe this would help)

Weight:

Not counting the bike and helmet or the clothes I wore onto the plane, the original version of this packlist came to about 48lbs (22 kg) in the duffel bag. Once I was riding with some of it on the bike (hip pack, bike bags, tools, snack bars, and so on), the duffel that was transferred between hotels weighed about 40lbs (18kg).

The revised version of this packlist for a future trip (removing the strikeout items and adding most of the "tbd future" items) also came to about 48 lbs as checked on the plane total including the bike bags, or about 43 lbs / 19.5 kg once some items were carried on the bike. Not quite at my goal of 18kg but close... I could pack lighter and with fewer separate sub-bags, but I like being organized and bringing a few new pieces of clothing/gear to try each trip.

[tarriecat]

I don't know how coherent this will be, bear with me, I'm writing while stricken with the plague and all.

So I'm sitting here with a thankfully mild case of covid and because I soothe my anxiety with information, especially my medical anxiety, I've been doing a lot of googling about like, how to take care of yourself while you have covid, details about this variant, all that stuff. And I've come to this conclusion that's very sad and kind of interesting. (Please note that I'm dealing with the English-speaking mainstream internet as a white American, so any generalizations in this post are through that lens.)

All our instructions for how to care for ourselves seem to stop after "don't die."

I've found lots of articles, especially from earlier in the pandemic, that say about what you'd expect. A lot of isolation guidelines and encouragement to get your vaccines, and very little "hey this is what over the counter cold med might make you less miserable" or "this kind of juice is best for a sore throat." And it matters that they're mostly from early in the pandemic, I think. They're all aimed at "here's how not to die and how to help other people not die." Which, please don't get me wrong, is fucking important. Please do isolate and wear your damn masks and get your damn vaccines.

But like...why do we stop there? (I know why, it's capitalism and the calvinist work ethic, it's a rhetorical question.) Wouldn't it be nice to talk about prevention of disease and amelioration of symptoms even when they're NOT fatal? Why is that our line?

Earlier this year my husband got a norovirus. It sucked. And I had already resigned myself to "oh, we're in the same house, it's inevitable I'm going to get it too" when we thought, hey what if we actually looked up how it spreads and if we can do things to minimize it? And we did, and I didn't get sick. That was nice! We're a pair of well-educated thirtysomethings from middle class backgrounds, how did it take us this long?

It feels like, culturally, we treat minor illness like an inevitability and an inconvenience. We push ourselves through migraines and go to school with full boxes of tissues instead of staying home with "just a cold." Which is awful for two reasons. First of all, it puts the immunocompromised at risk of ACTUALLY DYING, please fucking care about that.

Second of all, how sad is it that the standard of comfort we aspire to is "not dead"? That the standard for not calling out of work is "standing up and not vomiting"? I'm unlikely to get seriously ill from my current covid infection, just like I wouldn't have been sick more than a couple days if I'd caught that norovirus. But it still sucks! I don't want to be stuck in my bedroom coughing and wondering if I'm going to miss Christmas! I don't want to inflict that on anyone else either! I want articles telling me about how to make this week not suck, and I want a cultural narrative that cares about protecting people from feeling bad!

And yes I know some parts of our society it's a hard enough fight getting them to care about the not-dying, not-killing-people part. But I still want us to strive for better than that.