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racingtoaredlight · 4 years ago

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College Football 2020 Season Week 12 TV Watch Em Ups: this is really still way too much football

Would you believe that I am not good at conveying accurate information? I know, it came as a shock to me, too! But it turns out this is week 12 of the college football season. Somebody else can leaf back through these posts but I’m not sure from this distance that I even made it as far as week 1 with the number listed correctly. But I’ve gotta trust what’s in front of me.

It doesn’t matter anyway. The long game for me has always been waiting for the season to be called off entirely and it’s becoming more and more clear that some version of this grotesquerie is going to make its way to the very bloody end of the playoffs. So even in my safest gambling prognostications I am utterly useless and wrong. (Maybe two consecutive days without my pills was a bad idea...) Here’s where things stand at postin’ time:

Saturday, November 21

Matchup Time (ET) TV/Mobile

Georgia Southern at Army 12:00pm CBSSN

What a miserable way to open a post. Let’s skip this one.

Illinois at Nebraska 12:00pm FS1

Still loling at Penn State. A great capper to Nebraska hanging on to beat Penn State last week would be to turn around and earn Lovie Smith another chance to win four more games in 2021.

LSU at Arkansas 12:00pm SECN

This appears to be a mistake as LSU suspended their football program for the 2020 season.

6 Florida at Vanderbilt 12:00pm ESPN

Florida hasn’t had a complete fuck up yet in 2020. Something seems really off about that.

9 Indiana at 3 Ohio State 12:00pm FOX

Indiana has been the feel good story of 2020 college football so far. Maybe the only feel good story. They’re going to lose this game but show enough pluck and fight and courage to stick pretty close to the top 10 before taking a soul shattering dive at home against Maryland next week. Or they’ll just lose to tOSU by 60.

4 Clemson at Florida State 12:00pm ABC

Bobby Bowden built Florida State into a powerhouse by taking road matchups against anybody dumb enough to take that win for granted. There is a whole “sod graveyard” at FSU commemorating the biggest of those wins. So there’s a decent chance the +35.5 line for this game (or +36.5 depending on where you bet) is the most anybody has ever been favored as a road team in Tallahassee. I’ve mentioned before in these posts that FSU is maybe at the lowest point of any of Florida’s big three programs in my lifetime. There is actually no maybe. This program is a total shambles right now.

East Carolina at Temple 12:00pm ESPN+

Eh, sure. Fine.

Arkansas State at Texas State 12:00pm ESPNU

Not sure if any of you caught the whole Farhad Manjoo controversy on twitter yesterday but basically he wrote an article for the New York Times about how many people he’s been exposed to in terms of COVID risk lately and how dangerous it could be for him to now fly home to his parents house for Thanksgiving. After going through all of the math and demonstrating pretty well what a horrible idea it would be for him to celebrate Thanksgiving with his parents he concludes by saying that he’s going to go ahead and celebrate Thanksgiving with his parents anyway. This game here, Arkansas State at Texas State, is about the same level of completely worthless risk of death and it’s still going to be played. I might start referencing that dumb Farhad Manjoo article/idea more regularly in watch em up posts.

Appalachian State at 15 Coastal Carolina 12:00pm ESPN2

Coastal Carolina is going to win a national championship against BYU because every other program is too close to an 100% infection rate to keep playing. BYU doesn’t believe in shit like COVID and Coastal Carolina used up all of their budget fielding a team in the first place.

Stephen F. Austin at Memphis 12:00pm ESPN+

There it is, the 100th game to kick off at noon this Saturday! Congratulations, everybody!

Rice at North Texas 2:00pm ESPN3

Rice has had a football program for a really long time for some reason.

FIU at WKU 2:00pm ESPN3

...

North Alabama at 8 BYU 3:00pm BYUtv/ESPN3

One of sports great rivalry games.

UTSA at Southern Miss 3:00pm ESPN+

Mmm, another classic.

Western Carolina at Eastern Kentucky 3:00pm ESPN3

Thank god this one isn’t cancelled.

UCLA at 11 Oregon 3:30pm ESPN2

Chip Kelly is still at UCLA, right? It would be kind of funny if he beat Oregon but also might go more or less unnoticed. Oregon has to be the least hyped team in the country to feature maybe four 2021 first round picks and a clear path to a conference title. The Pac-12 came so close to actually doing the right thing and not playing this year.

Iowa at Penn State 3:30pm BTN

When I said that Indiana is the feel good story of the season so far I forgot that Penn State hasn’t won yet. Rockeye Chalkeye Hawkeyes or whatever Iowa’s chant is. Let’s keep it fucking going.

California at Oregon State 3:30pm FS1

Not a single feeling.

10 Wisconsin at 19 Northwestern 3:30pm ABC

For my money this is close to as unappealing as a top 20 matchup is liable to ever be. That’s only partially explained by the sham quality of this season overall.

San Diego State at Nevada 3:30pm CBS

This is good stuff normally but I might just skip this entire day of watching.

Middle Tennessee at Troy 3:30pm ESPN3

{URGE TO DO LITERALLY ANYTHING ELSE INTENSIFYING}

Georgia State at South Alabama 3:30pm ESPNU

I am boiling over with apathy at the thought of this one.

7 Cincinnati at UCF 3:30pm ESPN

The people’s champs are not particularly great this year but maybe they can do us all a solid and derail the train that is Ohio State, Jr. The line isn’t crazily tilted towards the Bearcats (-5) so maybe it’s a real possibility?

Virginia Tech at Pitt 4:00pm ACCN

Don’t let anybody convince you that the players aren’t wearing masks on the field during game action here. You’ve just gotta believe.

Kansas State at 17 Iowa State 4:00pm FOX

I should be interested in this one and yet...

Kentucky at 1 Alabama 4:00pm SECN

For the record I agree that Mac Jones is really good and I also put him at about the 15th best player on the Tide this year. So, no, he wouldn’t be in the lead for RTARLsman 2020 if that were happening.

Abilene Christian at Virginia 4:00pm RSN/ESPN3

UVA is completely inscrutable this year. Even more than usual. But they have been an absolute pleasure to watch in short bursts because their uniform game has been exceptionally sharp.

Tennessee at 23 Auburn 7:00pm ESPN

Missouri at South Carolina 7:30pm SECN Alt.

The SEC is putting their messiest foot forward in primetime this week.

Michigan at Rutgers 7:30pm BTN

Great conference matchup between two programs that peaked in the 19th century and will never be national champions again.

21 Liberty at NC State 7:30pm RSN/ESPN3

This Liberty being ranked thing is hilarious but I’ll be pretty happy if NC State wrecks them.

14 Oklahoma State at 18 Oklahoma 7:30pm ABC

Bedlam, baby! In primetime! Why!

Mississippi State at 13 Georgia 7:30pm SECN

I don’t root for the UGAs often but I’ll be deeply in their corner this week. I want Mike Leach out of a job by the end of next season.

Arizona at Washington 8:00pm FOX

Pretty sweet uniform matchup, if nothing else. It is nothing else.

20 USC at Utah 10:30pm ESPN

I should really want to watch this game but I really don’t.

Boise State at Hawaii 11:00pm CBSSN

Maybe Boise will be tired from travel but they have no business winning by less than 20. Hawaii is not running that GoGo shit and they deserve to burn for it.

GAMES OF THE WEEK

Charlotte at 15 Marshall Postponed

Wake Forest at Duke Postponed

ULM vs. Louisiana Tech (in Shreveport, LA) Canceled

Ole Miss at 5 Texas A&M Postponed

Central Arkansas at 24 Louisiana Canceled

Michigan State at Maryland Canceled

San Jose State at Fresno State Canceled

UNLV at Colorado State Canceled

Arizona State at Colorado Canceled

Washington State at Stanford Canceled

Navy at USF Canceled

#football #college football #saturday post #covid #cancel this season

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sportsleague365 · 5 years ago

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The CollegeFootballNews.com bowl projections, picks and predictions for the College Football Playoff after Week 12. – Contact/Follow @ColFootballNews – Future College Football Playoff Sites & Dates These projections are all going to go haywire when it’s time to really do this for three reasons. 1) The SEC.In some way, shape and form, LSU, Alabama, Georgia and Florida will all likely be in the College Football Playoff and New Year’s Six games. That screws up the whole SEC pecking order, meaning there will be a few big openings against good Power Five teams. If Mississippi State loses to Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl and doesn’t become bowl eligible, and/or if Tennessee doesn’t get to six wins … uh oh. There could be as many as five bowls that have to fill open SEC spots, which is a problem because … 2) There won’t be any Power Five at-large teams to choose from.There will be some very, very good teams playing some very, very mediocre Group of Five teams because there simple won’t be enough options. And that means … 3)This is all going to be screwed up by a few bowls that will jump the gun.The Belk, AutoZone Liberty, Franklin American Mortgage Music City, and Academy Sports + Outdoor Texas will all be desperate for an SEC team. All of a sudden, Kentucky and Tennessee could be the most beloved programs in college football. The bowls that don’t get them might have to scramble for the best available MAC team. 2019-2020 Bowl Projections: Week 12MAKERS WANTED BAHAMAS BOWL Friday, December 20 2:00 ET, ESPN Thomas Robinson National Stadium, Nassau, Bahamas MAC vs. Conference USA Projection: Western Michigan vs. Florida Atlantic Last Season: FIU 35, Toledo 32 TROPICAL SMOOTHIE CAFE FRISCO BOWL Friday, December 20 7:30 ET, ESPN2 Toyota Stadium, Frisco, TX American Athletic vs. at-large Secondary: MAC, and if not, Conference USA Projection: SMU vs. Ball State Last Season: Ohio 27, San Diego State 0 CURE BOWL Saturday, December 21 1:30 ET, CBS Sports Network Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL American Athletic vs. Sun Belt Projection: Temple vs. Georgia State Last Season: Tulane 41, Louisiana 24 NEW MEXICO BOWL Saturday, December 21 2:00 ET, ESPN Branch Field at Dreamstyle Stadium, Albuquerque, NM Conference USA vs. Mountain West Projection: Southern Miss vs. Nevada Last Season: Utah State 52, North Texas 13 RelatedCollege Football News Rankings 1-130: After Week 12CHERIBUNDI BOCA RATON BOWL Saturday, December 21 3:30 ET, ABC Howard Schnellenberger Field at FAU Stadium, Boca Raton, FL American Athletic vs. MAC Projection: Memphis vs. Miami University Last Season: UAB 37, Northern Illinois 13 CAMELLIA BOWL Saturday, December 21 5:30 ET, ESPN Cramton Bowl, Montgomery, AL MAC vs. Sun Belt Projection: Toledo vs. Arkansas State Last Season: Georgia Southern 23, Eastern Michigan 21 MITSUBISHI MOTORS LAS VEGAS BOWL Saturday, December 21 7:30 ET, ABC Sam Boyd Stadium, Las Vegas, NV Mountain West (champion) vs. Pac-12 Projection: Hawaii vs. Cal Last Season: Fresno State 31, Arizona State 20 R+L CARRIERS NEW ORLEANS BOWL Saturday, December 21 9:00 ET, ESPN Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA Conference USA vs. Sun Belt (champion) Projection: Louisiana Tech vs. Appalachian State Last Season: Appalachian State 45, Middle Tennessee 13 BAD BOY MOWERS GASPARILLA BOWL Monday, December 23 2:30 ET, ESPN Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL American Athletic vs. Conference USA Secondary: ACC Projection: UCF vs. WKU Last Season: Marshall 38, USF 20 SOFI HAWAI’I BOWL Tuesday, December 24 8:00 ET, ESPN Hawaiian Tel Federal Credit Union Field at Aloha Stadium, Honolulu, HI BYU vs. American Athletic or Mountain West Projection: BYU vs. Wyoming Last Season: Louisiana Tech 31, Hawaii 14 WALK-ON’S INDEPENDENCE BOWL Thursday, December 26 4:00 ET, ESPN Independence Stadium, Shreveport, LA ACC vs. SEC Secondary: American Athletic, Conference USA Projection: Florida State vs. UAB Last Season: Duke 56, Temple 27 QUICK LANE BOWL Thursday, December 26 8:00 ET, ESPN Ford Field, Detroit, MI ACC vs. Big Ten Secondary: MAC Projection: North Carolina vs.Nebraska Last Season: Minnesota 34, Georgia Tech 10 MILITARY BOWL PRESENTED BY NORTHRUP GRUMMAN Friday, December 27 12:00 ET, ESPN Navy-Marine Corps. Stadium, Annapolis, MD ACC vs. American Athletic Projection: Louisville vs. Navy Last Season: Cincinnati 35, Virginia Tech 31 NEW ERA PINSTRIPE BOWL Friday, December 27 3:20 ET, ESPN Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY ACC vs. Big Ten Projection: Wake Forest vs. Michigan State Last Season: Wisconsin 35, Miami 3 ACADEMY SPORTS + OUTDOORS TEXAS BOWL Friday, December 27 6:45 ET, ESPN NRG Stadium, Houston, TX Big 12 vs. SEC Projection: Oklahoma State vs. Buffalo* *No SEC team projected available Last Season: Baylor 45, Vanderbilt 38 SAN DIEGO COUNTY CREDIT UNION HOLIDAY BOWL Friday, December 27 8:00 ET, FS1 SDCCU Stadium, San Diego, CA Big Ten vs. Pac-12 Projection: Michigan vs. USC Last Season: Northwestern 31, Utah 20 CHEEZ-IT BOWL Saturday, December 28 10:15 ET, ESPN Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ Big 12 vs. Pac-12 Secondary: Mountain West Projection: Kansas State vs. San Diego State Last Season: TCU 10, Cal 7 OT CAMPING WORLD BOWL Saturday, December 28 12:00 ET, ABC Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL ACC vs. Big 12 Projection: Notre Dame vs. Texas Last Season: Syracuse 34, West Virginia 18 SERVPRO FIRST RESPONDERS BOWL Monday, December 30 12:30 ET, ESPN Cotton Bowl Stadium, Dallas, TX Big 12 vs. Conference USA Projection: TCU vs. Marshall Last Season: Boise State vs. Boston College cancelled REDBOX BOWL Monday, December 30 4:00 ET, FOX Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA Big Ten vs. Pac-12 Projection: Illinois vs. Washington State Last Season: Oregon 7, Michigan State 6 FRANKLIN AMERICAN MORTGAGE MUSIC CITY BOWL Monday, December 30 4:00 ET, ESPN Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN SEC vs. (likely) ACC, or Big Ten Projection: Miami vs. Liberty* Last Season: Auburn 63, Purdue 14 *No SEC team projected available BELK BOWL Tuesday, December 31 12:00 ET, ESPN Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC ACC vs. SEC Projection: Pitt vs. Mississippi State *No SEC team projected available Last Season: Virginia 28, South Carolina 0 TONY THE TIGER SUN BOWL Tuesday, December 31 2:00 ET, CBS Sun Bowl Stadium, El Paso, TX ACC vs. Pac-12 Projection: Virginia vs. Arizona State Last Season: Stanford 14, Pitt 13 AUTOZONE LIBERTY BOWL Tuesday, December 31 3:45 ET, ESPN Liberty Bowl, Memphis, TN Big 12 vs. SEC Secondary: American Athletic Projection: Iowa State vs. Tulane Last Season: Oklahoma State 38, Missouri 33 NOVA HOME LOANS ARIZONA BOWL Tuesday, December 31 4:30 ET, CBS Sports Network Arizona Stadium, Tucson, AZ Sun Belt vs. Mountain West Projection: Georgia Southern vs. San Jose State Last Season: Nevada 16, Arkansas State 13 OT VALERO ALAMO BOWL Tuesday, December 31 7:30 ET, ESPN Alamodome, San Antonio, TX Big 12 vs. Pac-12 Projection: Baylor vs. Washington Last Season: Washington State 28, Iowa State 26 VRBO CITRUS BOWL Wednesday, January 1 1:00 ET, ABC Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL SEC vs. Big Ten or ACC Projection: Texas A&M vs. Wisconsin Last Season: Kentucky 27, Penn State 24 OUTBACK BOWL Wednesday, January 1 1:00 ET, ESPN Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL Big Ten vs. SEC Projection: Penn State vs. Auburn Last Season: Iowa 27, Mississippi State 22 BIRMINGHAM BOWL Thursday, January 2 3:00 ET, ESPN Legion Field, Birmingham, AL American Athletic vs. SEC Secondary: ACC Projection: Cincinnati vs. Charlotte* Last Season: Wake Forest 37, Memphis 34 *No SEC team projected available RelatedCollege Football News Rankings 1-130: After Week 11TAXSLAYER GATOR BOWL Thursday, January 2 7:00 ET, ESPN EverBank Field, Jacksonville, FL SEC vs. (likely) Big Ten, or ACC Projection: Kentucky vs. Iowa Last Season: Texas A&M 52, NC State 13 FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL Friday, January 3 3:30 ET, ESPN Lyle Smith Field at Albertsons Stadium, Boise, ID MAC vs. Mountain West Projection: Central Michigan vs. Utah State Last Season: BYU 49, Western Michigan 18 LOCKHEED MARTIN ARMED FORCES BOWL Saturday, January 4 11:30 am ET, ESPN Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX Big Ten vs. Mountain West Projection: Indiana vs. Air Force Last Season: Army 70, Houston 14 MOBILE ALABAMA BOWL Monday, January 6 7:30 ET, ESPN Ladd-Peebles Stadium, Mobile, AL MAC vs. Sun Belt Projection: Ohio vs. Louisiana Last Season: Troy 42, Buffalo 32 – 2019-2020 College Football Conference Bowl Tie-Ins NEXT: NEW YEAR’S SIX BOWLS & COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF 1 2 …3 #BowlProjections #Week12 #Week11

#BowlProjections #Week12 #Week11

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junker-town · 6 years ago

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S&P+ spread picks for every Week 11 college football game

With GameDay watching, can BC impede a pre-ordained Clemson CFP run? Picks for that and every other FBS game here.

Clemson’s got four remaining hurdles to get to the College Football Playoff, and the Tigers are likely to clear all of them. S&P+ gives them a 75 percent chance of winning their final three regular season games (they’re at least an 18-point favorite in each) and would deem them a 29-point favorite against Pitt in the ACC title game, a 27-point favorite against Virginia Tech, or a 25-point favorite against Virginia.

The next few games feel like they’re as much about staying healthy as conquering challenges, but if one game still has even slight uncertainty, it’s this battle with Boston College.

Clemson will probably win. But BC has proved a tricky out this season. The Eagles are 7-2 with a top-30 defense and an offense that alternates between constant explosions and steady implosions. They can make big plays from any situation but might not make any; they’re horrible on third-and-long but don’t face any. Opponents avoid their run defense, passing constantly, but they defend the pass better than the run.

With the way Clemson’s been playing of late, though, it might not matter. Since the Tigers narrowly survived Syracuse with their freshman backup quarterback (as opposed to their freshman starting quarterback), they’ve been as dominant as ever.

They beat Wake Forest, NC State, Florida State, and Louisville by an average of 60-9 (!!). On offense they’re in the top 10 in both Rushing S&P+ and Passing Downs S&P+, and their defense is dominant in all but a select few categories. They have for the last month dominated at an Alabama level, and they are only a little bit behind the Tide in overall S&P+. This is a machine, and if the Tigers survive strangeness in Chestnut Hill, they’re just about to the finish line.

Below are FBS picks and projections using the S&P+ projections, listed in full for all 130 FBS teams here.

See the bottom of the post for more detail about these.

The spread (listed in parentheses) is shown next to S&P+’s pick for each game. The team in bold is projected to beat the spread. (At most books, there is no listed spread for FCS games.) When S&P+ predicts a tie or a push (a tie with Vegas, basically), I list the pick on the side S&P+ would pick if teams could score in decimals.

This document breaks games (and S&P+’s season performance to date) out into their decimal glory. This year, I am including and monitoring total (over/under) picks as well.

Weeknight games

Photo by Brett Carlsen/Getty Images

Syracuse’s Alton Robinson

No. 13 Syracuse 38, Louisville (+21.5) 22 (Nov. 09, 7:00 PM ET, ESPN2)

No. 14 NC State 38, Wake Forest (+17.5) 24 (Nov. 08, 7:30 PM ET, ESPN)

No. 23 Fresno State (-3) 33, Boise State 24 (Nov. 09, 10:15 PM ET, ESPN2)

Buffalo (-20.5) 41, Kent State 17 — Buffalo won by 34 (W)

Northern Illinois 27, Toledo (+3) 27 — NIU won by 23 (L)

Ohio 33, Miami (Ohio) (+3.5) 32 — Miami won by 2 (W)

After drubbing Louisville appropriately, Syracuse gets a shot at Notre Dame next week in a strangely big game, one that could determine the Irish’s spot in the Playoff or the Orange’s spot in a New Year’s Six bowl.

Ranked vs. ranked

Vasha Hunt-USA TODAY Sports

Mississippi State’s Nick Fitzgerald

No. 1 Alabama 37, No. 16 Mississippi State (+24) 19 (Nov. 10, 3:30 PM ET, CBS)

No. 2 Clemson 35, No. 17 Boston College (+20.5) 17 (Nov. 10, 8:00 PM ET, ABC)

No. 5 Georgia 33, No. 24 Auburn (+14.5) 20 (Nov. 10, 7:00 PM ET, ESPN)

No. 10 Ohio State (-3.5) 30, No. 18 Michigan State 25 (Nov. 10, 12:00 PM ET, Fox)

I’m curious how long Mississippi State can make Alabama uncomfortable on Saturday. Going by S&P+, MSU is the best team the Crimson Tide have faced this season. They defend about as well as LSU, and they can run the ball as well as LSU wishes it could.

The Bulldogs could make things interesting if quarterback Nick Fitzgerald can hit a couple of deep shots, but, well, it is putting it kindly to say that Fitzgerald has struggled to hit the deep shots — the MSU offense is third in Rushing S&P+ but 87th in Passing S&P+. Maybe he’s been saving up all his good passes for this moment?

Other ranked teams in action

Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Notre Dame’s Jerry Tillery

No. 3 Notre Dame (-18) 36, Florida State 13 (Nov. 10, 7:30 PM ET, NBC)

No. 4 Michigan (-39.5) 44, Rutgers 2 (Nov. 10, 3:30 PM ET, BTN)

No. 6 Oklahoma 45, Oklahoma State (+20.5) 29 (Nov. 10, 3:30 PM ET, ABC)

No. 7 LSU 32, Arkansas (+14) 22 (Nov. 10, 7:30 PM ET, SECN)

No. 8 Washington State (-6.5) 36, Colorado 25 (Nov. 10, 3:30 PM ET, ESPN)

No. 9 West Virginia 34, TCU (+12) 24 (Nov. 10, 12:00 PM ET, FS1)

No. 11 Kentucky (-6.5) 29, Tennessee 22 (Nov. 10, 3:30 PM ET, SECN)

No. 12 UCF (-25.5) 50, Navy 17 (Nov. 10, 12:00 PM ET, ESPN2)

No. 15 Florida (-6) 34, South Carolina 25 (Nov. 10, 12:00 PM ET, ESPN)

Texas Tech (+2) 35, No. 19 Texas 31 (Nov. 10, 7:30 PM ET, Fox)

No. 20 Penn State 31, Wisconsin (+9) 28 (Nov. 10, 12:00 PM ET, ABC)

No. 21 Iowa (-10.5) 30, Northwestern 18 (Nov. 10, 3:30 PM ET, Fox)

No. 22 Iowa State 36, Baylor (+14.5) 23 (Nov. 10, 3:30 PM ET, FS1)

Florida State’s still got a decent defense (it’s been downgraded from “good” after a couple of bad weeks) and certainly has the athletes to scare Notre Dame, but any thoughts you have about an upset disappear when you think about Jerry Tillery, Julian Okwara, Khalid Kareem, and the disruptive Notre Dame front taking on the sieve that is the FSU offensive line. That could be ugly.

Power 5 vs. Power 5

Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Pitt’s Darrin Hall

Arizona State 37, UCLA (+13.5) 24 (Nov. 10, 2:00 PM ET, Pac-12)

Duke (-10) 36, North Carolina 20 (Nov. 10, 12:20 PM ET, ACCN)

Kansas State (-10.5) 33, Kansas 22 (Nov. 10, 12:00 PM ET, FSN)

Maryland (+1) 26, Indiana 26 (Nov. 10, 12:00 PM ET, BTN)

Miami (+3.5) 33, Georgia Tech 26 (Nov. 10, 7:00 PM ET, ESPN2)

Missouri 38, Vanderbilt (+17) 22 (Nov. 10, 12:00 PM ET, SECN)

Purdue 34, Minnesota (+12.5) 26 (Nov. 10, 3:30 PM ET, ESPN2)

Stanford (-24) 47, Oregon State 20 (Nov. 10, 9:00 PM ET, Pac-12)

Texas A&M 37, Ole Miss (+11.5) 30 (Nov. 10, 12:00 PM ET, CBS)

USC (-5.5) 28, California 20 (Nov. 10, 10:30 PM ET, ESPN)

Utah (-4) 35, Oregon 24 (Nov. 10, 5:30 PM ET, Pac-12)

Virginia (+3) Tech 31, Pittsburgh 31 (Nov. 10, 3:30 PM ET, ESPNU) (Actual projected score: VT 31.3, Pitt 31.0)

Pitt vs. Virginia Tech in a tossup game for potential control of the ACC Coastal division. That sounds exciting, at least until you think about the teams’ combined 9-8 record.

FBS vs. FBS

Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Illinois’ Reggie Corbin

Air Force 33, New Mexico (+13.5) 25 (Nov. 10, 3:30 PM ET, CBSSN)

Appalachian State (-21) 34, Texas State 13 (Nov. 10, 4:00 PM ET, ESPN3) (Actual projected score: App State 34.3, TXST 12.9)

Arkansas State (-6.5) 38, Coastal Carolina 28 (Nov. 10, 5:00 PM ET, ESPN+)

BYU 33, Massachusetts (+14) 26 (Nov. 10, 12:00 PM ET, ELVN)

Central Michigan (-7.5) 32, Bowling Green 24 (Nov. 10, 3:00 PM ET, ESPN+)

Cincinnati 31, USF (+14) 23 (Nov. 10, 7:00 PM ET, ESPNU)

Eastern Michigan (-12.5) 33, Akron 17 (Nov. 10, 12:00 PM ET, ESPN3)

Florida Atlantic 37, Western Kentucky (+20.5) 18 (Nov. 10, 5:00 PM ET, Facebook)

Florida International (-10.5) 32, UTSA 21 (Nov. 10, 7:00 PM ET, ESPN+)

Houston 32, Temple (+4.5) 29 (Nov. 10, 7:00 PM ET, CBSSN)

Louisiana Tech 40, Rice (+24.5) 17 (Nov. 10, 7:00 PM ET, ESPN+)

Marshall (-14.5) 32, Charlotte 10 (Nov. 10, 2:30 PM ET, ESPN+)

Memphis (-15.5) 39, Tulsa 23 (Nov. 10, 12:00 PM ET, ESPNU)

Middle Tennessee 32, UTEP (+13.5) 19 (Nov. 10, 3:00 PM ET, ESPN+)

Nebraska 40, Illinois (+17) 24 (Nov. 10, 12:00 PM ET, BTN)

Nevada (-14) 39, Colorado State 24 (Nov. 10, 10:30 PM ET, ESPNU)

North Texas (-14.5) 42, Old Dominion 21 (Nov. 10, 2:00 PM ET, ESPN3)

San Diego State (-22.5) 39, UNLV 15 (Nov. 10, 10:30 PM ET, ESPN2)

SMU (-19.5) 42, Connecticut 23 (Nov. 10, 12:00 PM ET, ESPN3) (actual projected score: SMU 42.2, UConn 22.7)

Troy (-1) 31, Georgia Southern 29 (Nov. 10, 1:00 PM ET, ESPN+)

Tulane 31, East Carolina (+14) 19 (Nov. 10, 4:00 PM ET, ESPNN)

UAB 28, Southern Miss (+12) 16 (Nov. 10, 7:30 PM ET, beIN) (actual projected score: UAB 28.0, USM 16.1)

UL-Lafayette 42, Georgia State (+14) 30 (Nov. 10, 5:00 PM ET, ESPN+)

UL-Monroe 34, South Alabama (+6.5) 30 (Nov. 10, 5:00 PM ET, ESPN+)

Utah State (-31) 46, San Jose State 10 (Nov. 10, 4:00 PM ET, Facebook)

Virginia 41, Liberty (+23.5) 21 (Nov. 10, 3:00 PM ET, ACCN)

I can’t believe these words are leaving my keyboard, but you should try to watch some of the Nebraska-Illinois game. It will be much more fun than you expect. Nebraska has scored at least 31 points for four straight games and is up to 44th in Off. S&P+ after a tough start. Meanwhile, Illinois — Illinois! — has one of the most enjoyable run games in the country. The Illini are sixth in Rushing S&P+ and rushed for more than 400 yards against Minnesota last week. Granted, they fall apart as soon as they have to rely on anything other than the ground game, but it’s something!

At 4-5, the Illini still have, per S&P+, a 10 percent chance of reaching bowl eligibility. Those odds would improve to at least 35 percent with a win in Lincoln.

FBS vs. FCS

Danny Wild-USA TODAY Sports

Army’s looking to move to 9-2.

Army 30, Lafayette 1 (Nov. 10, 12:00 PM ET, CBSSN)

I would pay a lot of money to see a team win by a 30-1 score.

Each year, I post weekly S&P+ picks as a way of affirming the ratings’ validity. I use my S&P+ system as a complement to most of my analysis, and the picks are a way of showing it generally knows what it’s talking about.

S&P+ tends to hit between 50 (meh) and 54 percent (great) against the spread from year to year. It isn’t always the single best performer, but it holds its own.

Beyond picks, though, it goes deeper than any other set of college football analytics on the market. You can go into granular detail regarding team strengths and weaknesses in a way that no other set of ratings allows. (See the annual team statistical profiles as proof.)

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dmbreport-blog · 7 years ago

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No. 19 USF, Strong focused on getting better vs Stony Brook

TAMPA, Fla. (AP) — When No. 19 South Florida assembled for its first practice following a season-opening rout of San Jose State, coach Charlie Strong didn’t have any difficulty keeping the attention of his players. The Bulls (1-0) were anything but flawless in their debut under Strong and are determined to be a lot sharper in Saturday’s home opener against Stony Brook (0-0). “You always look for…

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#@dmb_report

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vegascoverage-blog · 7 years ago

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SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS SAN JOSE STATE SPARTANS 0-0, 1st in American East August 26, 7:30 PM | Turf of Spartan Stadium 0-0, 1st in MW West South Florida at San Jose State When: 7:30 PM ET, Saturday, August 26, 2017 Where: CEFCU Stadium, San Jose, California TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network.

#vegas odds

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handicappingpolice · 7 years ago

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USF vs San Jose State (copy 01) http://ift.tt/2wARvnc *|MC_PREVIEW_TEXT|* South Florida vs San Jose State NCAAF Prediction Visit Website (http://ift.tt/17S3Na8) http://ift.tt/17S3Na8 http://ift.tt/2xoCguI South Florida Bulls vs San Jose State Spartans Free Total Prediction NCAAF: Saturday, August 26, 2017 Odds: San Jose State +20.5 | 69 Football fans rejoice as college football kicks off this weekend with a sampling of games. The South Florida Bulls travel cross-country to take on the San Jose State Spartans at CEFCU Stadium in San Jose, California. The South Florida Bulls will be lead by former Texas and Louisville head coach, Charlie Strong. Strong fought a losing battle at Texas and was never really settled with the program. Expectations were sky high and he failed to recruit the talent needed to rebuild the Longhorns program. Strong is facing a different challenge with USF, inheriting a talented roster that went (11-2) in 2016. His job is to take this program to the next level and compete for a major bowl game. Quinton Flowers is one of 16 returning starters and the quarterback leads an offense that averaged 511 YPG, including 285 YPG on the ground and 43.8 PPG. Flowers is a dual-threat QB and he looks to build upon his 2016 season which he threw for 2812 yards with 24 TDs, 7 INTs, while also rushing for 1530 yards and 18 TDs. One of the biggest issues South Florida experience last season was over taxing their defense with their up tempo offense. The defense wore down as the season went on as they allowed 38.3 PPG over their last six games (including their bowl), compared to allowing just 25.9 PPG over their first seven games. Charlie Strong should have a positive impact on this defense. The San Jose State Spartans are hoping for better things in 2017 after a 4-8 season a year ago. The Spartans averaged only 24 PPG on offense and allowed 35 PPG on defense. The Spartans defense allowed 247 rushing yards per game which completely wore down this defense. San Jose State also has a first-year head coach, Brent Brennan, who is a 1st-time head coach. Brennan also has a 1st time OC and DC on his staff, so there will be some growing pains for this team this year. The Spartans have seven starters back on offense but must find a new QB and they have to replace top WR Tim Crawley. They do return Justin Holmes and Tre Hartley, who combined for 1185 yards receiving and seven TDs last year. Laying three touchdowns on the road is not something that should normally be considered. However, this Bulls offense was very productive last season and they return Heisman dark horse at QB, plus 16 returning starters on offense and defense. I think the Bulls have plenty of offense to get the job done on the road and should cover this -20.5 point spread. South Florida vs San Jose State Free NCAAF Pick: South Florida -20.5 FREE NCAAF Pick: South Florida -20.5 (http://ift.tt/2wtTjiB) http://ift.tt/17S3Na8 PURCHASE CREDITS NOW (http://ift.tt/2nbWi7A) VIEW MLB LEADERBOARD (http://ift.tt/2nhvW5K) ============================================================ Copyright © Sports Picks Forum ** unsubscribe from this list (*|UNSUB|*) ** update subscription preferences (*|UPDATE_PROFILE|*) http://ift.tt/17S3Na8 Copyright © Sports Picks Forum ** unsubscribe from this list (*|UNSUB|*) ** update subscription preferences (*|UPDATE_PROFILE|*) http://ift.tt/17S3Na8

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racingtoaredlight · 5 years ago

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The degenerate’s guide to college football TV watch ‘em ups, 2019 season, week 7

As you read this for the first time in what seems like ages Steven Montez is not throwing an interception. Enough about that, it’s Red River Shootout Rivalry week! Kind of sucks that they stopped calling it a shootout right when every game in the Big XII became a shootout.

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This isn’t the best version of “Red River Valley” much like this year’s game isn’t the best version of the Red River Shootout but we have to love the ones we’re with.

Why am I putting so much of this post into a game I don’t give a shit about? Because Miami already played (and won!) and I haven’t actually looked at the rest of the schedule yet. We’ll find out together what’s going on this week! Schedule copied from FBSchedules, gambles copied from Vegas Insider, thoughts are intended to be original. I’m sorry.

Saturday, October 12

Matchup Time (ET) TV/Mobile

6 Oklahoma vs. 11 Texas (in Dallas, TX) 12:00pm FOX

Wait, get the fuck out of here. This is the first game listed to top it all off? Bookmakers are fucking with us to have the o/u at 75.5 but Sooners -10.5 seems smart to me. Note to theoretical new readers: nobody who writes on this site about gambling is right more than 15% of the time.

Maryland at Purdue 12:00pm BTN

B1G action! It sucks!

23 Memphis at Temple 12:00pm ESPN2

The race for the group of five BCS bid (is that what we’re still calling it?) is a madcap so far and Temple is still in it. Wild, right? Manny Diaz might have chosen the less talented team this year when he decided to leave Temple at the altar. Memphis is the favorite for this game and the AAC championship and probably #2 in line for the big bowl money among the sisters of the poor but this is an interesting game for a whole host of reasons. Go Tigers.

Miami (Ohio) at Western Michigan 12:00pm ESPNU

I think I’m doing the italics wrong for this post. I won’t go back to fix it, though.

16 Michigan at Illinois 12:00pm ABC

Michigan is pure entertainment to me but only in theory. I don’t watch their shitty games but every outcome fills me with glee. Nobody likes them, especially Michigan fans. Keep it going, Captain Clutch.

Mississippi State at Tennessee 12:00pm SECN

Miss State isn’t total trash, are they? I feel like no but I can’t tell you why. And, yet, they are only favored by 6.5 over Tennessee. I can’t believe there’s a reason beyond gambling to care about this game.

Rutgers at Indiana 12:00pm BTN

If you find yourself interested in this game for any reason whatsoever please call 800-522-4700.

South Carolina at 3 Georgia 12:00pm ESPN

Is Coach Boom on the hot seat? I really don’t know what’s expected of him. Can he say that his shitty QB that got hurt would have made a difference in this season? Will school officials believe him? Georgia -22 seems like great value to me.

Toledo at Bowling Green 12:00pm CBSSN

Bowling Green is very bad. Are they +26.5 at home against Toledo bad? Absolutely they are.

Georgia Tech at Duke 12:30pm RSN

Georgia Tech football makes me sad. Let’s not dwell too long on them.

Ball State at Eastern Michigan 2:00pm ESPN+

Ball State is not baller at all. One of life’s great quandaries.

Old Dominion at Marshall 2:30pm Stadium

This must be the first game of the year on Stadium unless I’ve just completely stopped paying attention. What a debut!

New Mexico State at Central Michigan 3:00pm ESPN3

Washington State at 18 Arizona State 3:30pm Pac-12N

Holy hell, what a shit year this is. Arizona State crept up to #18 and there is nothing interesting about their team on the field. They aren’t even undefeated. It’s just Herm Edwards yelling inspiration to some kids you’ve never heard of and it’s mostly worked out so far. This game is a pick ‘em which is probably what every Washington State game should be until Mike Leach rides off into the sunset.

Florida State at 2 Clemson 3:30pm ABC

When Cabbage exposed Jameis Winston’s pay-for-play thing a few years ago Jameis was probably taking money for point shaving, too. I kind of feel like Trevor Lawrence is doing the same thing this year but it’s more dangerous for him because he still has to play in college for another year. How off has Clemson looked so far? I’m entertaining thoughts of FSU pulling the upset here. Technically they can do that just by staying closer than 26. That’s the best kind of upset, really.

NIU at Ohio 3:30pm ESPN+

Even in the lowered expectations world of MACtion 2019 this is a sad affair.

Kent State at Akron 3:30pm ESPN3

Maybe all MAC games are particularly sad this year.

Michigan State at 8 Wisconsin 3:30pm BTN

The pain isn’t close to over for Sparty but a nice moral victory here would only mean keeping Jonathan Taylor under 200 yards and 5 TDs. Or even scoring. One out of two seems possible.

25 Cincinnati at Houston 3:30pm ESPN2

Holgo to Houston seemed so natural but things haven’t really clicked yet. Fickell at Cincinnati, on the other hand, has been perfect and immediate. Vegas has some faith in the Cougars still, though, so maybe I just haven’t caught up to the now. The Bearcats are favored by 7 but that seems low to me, even on the road. Maybe stay the fuck away from this one.

1 Alabama at 24 Texas A&M 3:30pm CBS

aTm is going to lose by 40 and somehow rank #15 on Sunday.

BYU at USF 3:30pm CBSSN

BYU is starting a black QB for the first time in school history. That’s kind of a jarring headline in 2019 for any school, isn’t it?

UConn at Tulane 3:45pm ESPNU

Let’s run away from all the uncomfortable thoughts that go with BYU and gather together to laugh at UConn. It is wild that Tulane is favored by 34 over anybody. Willie Fritz is going to get offered a lot of money to go somewhere else for 2020 and I hope he stays put. Having a good coach and the occasionally best uniforms in the country is a cool combo.

Rhode Island at Virginia Tech 4:00pm ACCN

Virginia Tech won one of the most cursed games of all time last week and it would surprise basically nobody if they turned around and lost to the Fightin’ Lamar Odoms this week. Before you ask, yes, Rhode Island is bad even for a AA team.

Texas Tech at 22 Baylor 4:00pm FS1

Baylor is ranked. Gross.

San Jose State at Nevada 4:00pm ATTSN

If you’re a fan of Last Chance U, tune in to see Malik Henry take over as Nevada’s QB. The offense has been a shambles so far this year but the Wolfpack are still 3-2 and alive in the MWC so maybe the formerly big name recruit can provide a nice jolt.

UNLV at Vanderbilt 4:00pm SECN

People like to make jokes about the SEC not playing any good non-conference games and never going on the road to play out of conference.

Middle Tennessee at Florida Atlantic 4:00pm ESPN+

FAU is going to sneak into a bowl game this year and Lane Kiffin is going to get hired by like Florida State or some dumb shit. Looking forward to it all.

Iowa State at West Virginia 4:00pm ESPN

The line opened at -7.5 for Iowa State and it’s moved up to -10. Both these teams are kind of messy and it’s being played in Morgantown. Somebody please enlighten us all in the comments.

Georgia State at Coastal Carolina 5:00pm ESPN+

This afternoon stretch is mostly pretty bleak for watchin’ ‘em up.

UAB at UTSA 6:00pm ESPN+

This game doesn’t change things much for the better. UAB should rock UTSA but this is on ESPN+ anyway, so it’s not like anybody will be watching it.

UMass at Louisiana Tech 7:00pm ESPN3

Peeking down the page a bit, the night schedule actually looks pretty good. This one won’t be in the rotation. La Tech is good this year but UMass is pure trash. The 31.5-point line is a warning sign to stay away unless the game gets way the fuck out of hand really early.

Mississippi, Oxford at Missouri 7:00pm ESPN2

Kelly Bryant is, at long last, looking pretty good. Missouri’s offense is theoretically a good training ground for the NFL, so I’m happy for Bryant on that level, but I really just want to see extra misery (npi) poured on Mississippi.

North Texas at Southern Miss 7:00pm Facebook

I swear to you the good games are on their way.

Fresno State at Air Force 7:00pm CBSSN

We aren’t quite there yet but this is at least a cool looking game. The stadium, the uniforms, the offensive schemes. This is degenerate football.

Charlotte at FIU 7:00pm ESPN+

Butch Davis’s kids finally showed some signs of life last week but it’s still for the best that this one is on ESPN+ and out of sight.

Army at WKU 7:00pm Stadium

I don’t think you’ll need it but this is some pretty nice alternative program if the brand name stuff goes sideways.

10 Penn State at 17 Iowa 7:30pm ABC

Two programs with very different histories dealing with disadvantaged kids clash in primetime. Here’s to another few years of contract for Kirk Ferentz following a minor but important upset victory.

USC at 9 Notre Dame 7:30pm NBC

USC is great because they actually have a similar amount of talent to Notre Dame but they haven’t had a coach for the last few years. Nice to see one of college football’s storied rivalries played on the first weekend of October. I’m trying to believe the Trojans can win but honestly it would feel like a miracle if they keep things within spitting distance of the 10.5-point line.

Arkansas at Kentucky 7:30pm SECN

Both of these teams are 2-3 and going nowhere but Kentucky -6.5 seems like a steal. Somebody talk Beer out of this one.

Louisville at 19 Wake Forest 7:30pm ACCN

Wake Forest is the weird secret hope that at least one ACC team can stay in the top 25 all year long to make Clemson’s schedule just good enough to make the playoffs. If I know my ACC, Louisville is going to run all over them.

Navy at Tulsa 7:30pm ESPNU

I’m still not sold on this edition of Midshipmen football but maybe I’ve been too harsh on Malcolm Perry. We’re getting into the “pound the over” part of the year for Navy and I, possibly stupidly, feel pretty good about them winning this one. Which would make them 4-1 against the spread with three straight overs.

Nebraska at Minnesota 7:30pm FS1

Undefeated and unranked Minnesota might be catching Nebraska at a bad time. The Huskers aren’t good but they have a little bit of fight in them. Which is what they hired Scott Frost for in the first place. Leaning Nebraska +7.5. Make of that what you will.

7 Florida at 5 LSU 8:00pm ESPN

What upside down version of the world are we in where Florida’s vicious defense is pitted against LSU’s unstoppable offense? This is the kind of place where the U.S. president would lay down the project of empire to let some pissant remnant of Alexander the Great’s conquests bomb American troops for the sake of... building some hotels somewhere, I think? This game is guaranteed to end well past midnight East Coast time.

15 Utah at Oregon State 8:00pm Pac-12N

Well, Herman Munster, the Utes are people of the Great Basin whose ancestral homes covered most of present day Colorado and Utah. And the Utah Utes are gonna fuck Oregon State shit all up. Utah -14.5, under 59.5. Beware, all Pac-12 After Dark prognostication is functionally useless.

Hawaii at 14 Boise State 10:15pm ESPN2

God do I want to sex this particular game. Hawaii vs. Boise on the blue turf, kicking off well after most of the country has gone to bed? This is what West Coast football is all about. Boise is the much better team but Hawaii still has the wild offense, so keep an eye on this even if the score looks one-sided at halftime.

Wyoming at San Diego State 10:30pm CBSSN

In recent years this matchup has been the key to the MWC season but for some reason it got scheduled mid-season for 2019. Both are still in contention for the conference title and one of them is likely to get serious top 25 consideration tomorrow. SDSU has my heart but an o/u of 38 makes this one sound painful.

Washington at Arizona 11:00pm FS1

Pac-12 scheduling baby! Why is it designed to make people not see their best teams and most dynamic players? Who knows but it’s a tradition now. UDub has sort of fallen apart after their preseason top 10 ranking but nobody is going to look to Arizona for consistency. The line has moved down, which suggests people are betting in decent numbers, but you have to got serious problems if you think this is a good ride to take.

#saturday post #rtarl watches tv #watch em ups #degenerate football #football #college football

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racingtoaredlight · 6 years ago

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RTARL weekly degenerate’s guide to college football TV watch ‘em ups for week 9 of the 2018 college football season

Heart’s not really in this one so I’m sorry if this post is even worse than in other weeks.

Well, that’s overstating it. I’m not really sorry but be aware of that possibility.

Times are EDT and lines are whatever from wherever.

Saturday, October 27

Matchup Time (ET) TV/Mobile

Army at Eastern Michigan 12:00pm CBSSN

This should be a very close game full of lots of time for sleep and not caring about this stupid ass game.

Bethune-Cookman at Nebraska 12:00pm BTN

I know they ruined everything by winning last week but this still isn’t a gimme game for Nebraska. Overall talent level is pretty even between these two.

Central Michigan at Akron 12:00pm ESPN3

Now is as good a time as any to hug your loved ones and tell them to fire Mark Richt.

2 Clemson at Florida State 12:00pm ABC

Here it is, the game of the week. Second week in a row it involves Clemson and that is really way too much ACC. I take it back, this isn’t the game of the week. I’ve convinced myself that FSU is going to win, though.

Purdue at Michigan State 12:00pm ESPN

Sparty is favored by 1 but it’s important for the college football culture that Jeff Brohm makes it back to Louisville and Rondale Moore makes it to the dais for the Heisman telecast. Purdue needs to win.

Texas Tech at Iowa State 12:00pm ESPN2

I can not for the life of me make up my mind about how much I’m interested in this game. I feel like not at all. My rudimentary understanding of sports in general tells me that TTU at +5.5 is a good value.

UMass at UConn 12:00pm ESPNU

RTARLsman alert! Adam... uh... ? Whatever, you can look it up if that’s wrong. It was in the last post before this one. He’s a wide receiver and UConn is like a factory for defensive backs so if he’s actually good, the guy I wrote about yesterday, then he’ll put up numbers here.

Vanderbilt at Arkansas 12:00pm SECN

I wonder if I could interest either of these programs in hiring Mark Richt.

Wake Forest at Louisville 12:00pm RSN/ESPN3

This is as bad as power 5 football gets. Louisville is favored. That isn’t something you should be able to say this year.

20 Wisconsin at Northwestern 12:00pm FOX

This isn’t looking so hot, either. You better hope I’m right about FSU-Clemson being worthwhile because these early games don’t seem very appealing.

North Carolina at Virginia 12:20pm Raycom Sports

UVA-FSU in the ACC Championship Game isn’t something I want to actually watch but I would love to see it happen. Does that make sense? Let’s revel in the tawdriness of the ACC.

Coastal Carolina at Georgia State 2:00pm ESPN+

Christ almighty.

Southern Miss at Charlotte 2:00pm ESPN3

Just find something better to do.

Oregon State at Colorado 3:00pm Pac-12N

Two potential RTARLs-Americans are maybe in this game? I can’t remember what’s up with Laviska Shenault. He might be injured or some shit.

TCU at Kansas 3:00pm FS1

TCU hasn’t been what you would call good this season. Kansas has been normal Kansas. Does that sound entertaining to you?

Arizona State at USC 3:30pm ABC/ESPN2 (RM)

Tons of talent and no good coaching vs. an OK amount of talent and outdated coaching. Porter Gustin is done for the year so if you wanted to see him play you don’t have to feign interest anymore.

Duke at Pitt 3:30pm RSN/ESPN3

Why do we do this to ourselves? Nobody deserves this.

9 Florida at 7 Georgia 3:30pm CBS

This is the actual game of the week. And I don’t really actually trust either team just because of their respective brands. UF has been as good as their collection of talent so far this year but aren’t they always just a couple of horrible series away from unraveling? Kirby Smart might have already peaked in Athens. I hope he has.

Illinois at Maryland 3:30pm BTN

Goddamn all of it. Any sport that would condone Illinois-Maryland as an annual event isn’t deserving of this much of our time.

18 Iowa at 17 Penn State 3:30pm ESPN

Last year the Hawkeyes choked away a big upset and I’d hate to see them lose again. Seems like Penn State flirts with losing every single game. They deserve to lose every single game from now until they drop football.

Kansas State at 8 Oklahoma 3:30pm FOX

If you watched all 64 innings of last night’s World Series game you saw FOX trying to hype this game as something worth your interest. Do not fall for that.

Middle Tennessee at Old Dominion 3:30pm ESPN+

Why does this sport exist?

NIU at BYU 3:30pm ESPNU

The only joy to be had with this game is pronouncing the matchup as Nigh You Bayou.

Cincinnati at SMU 3:30pm CBSSN

Go Fuck Poniis.

21 USF at Houston 3:30pm ABC/ESPN2 (RM)

Decent shot that Ed Oliver and friends fuck up a potential matchup of top 10, 11-0 teams for USF, UCF and the AAC as a whole. What I mean is I expect Houston to win.

12 Kentucky at Missouri 4:00pm SECN

I really thought Memphis was gonna win last week but Kentucky actually should beat Mizzou, right?

New Mexico at Utah State 4:00pm Facebook

This wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world if it had a 10pm start time and was being broadcast on CBSSN. It’s neither of those things, stupidly enough.

Rice at North Texas 4:00pm ESPN+

Watch UNT go for some points! I think.

UNLV at San Jose State 6:30pm ATTSN

If there were playoffs for the worst 4 teams this would be a very important game.

15 Washington at California 6:30pm FS1

UDub has kind of sucked this year. They shouldn’t but they definitely have. Cal might be able to cure what ails them.

Arkansas State at Louisiana 7:00pm ESPN+

Boise State at Air Force 7:00pm CBSSN

This is a very CBSSN game and I will be here for it.

22 NC State at Syracuse 7:00pm ESPN

I know it’s important in some context but I still wish this game didn’t exist.

New Mexico State at Texas State 7:00pm ESPN3

I bet there’s a prison with a warden who graduated from one of these schools and he’s making the entire prison watch this game and that is a human rights violation.

16 Texas A&M at Mississippi State 7:00pm SECN

Montez Sweat vs. Kellen Mond is kind of intriguing. The uniform matchup is awful enough that it doesn’t matter. Hard pass.

Tulane at Tulsa 7:00pm ESPNU

Tulane is fun to watch but you have to know going in that they aren’t actually good. They just have cool formations and offensive concepts. The players are mostly awful. Tulsa is more of a MAC-style team and I hate them.

14 Washington State at 24 Stanford 7:00pm Pac-12N

Washington State needs to win out for the Pac-12 to have any shot at all for a playoff berth and I want you all to join me in wanting that. Mike Leach in that setting could be era defining.

FIU at WKU 7:30pm beIN SPORTS

Might be worth checking out just for the cool throwback helmets WKU is going to be wearing. Much less interesting for the actual football.

Tennessee at South Carolina 7:30pm SECN

Oh, hey, look! Another game that might be serving as a portal to hell.

UAB at UTEP 7:30pm ESPN+

Bad football isn’t strictly confined to the early games.

3 Notre Dame at Navy 8:00pm CBS

Navy has been awful but are they +23.5 to Notre Dame at home awful? I say no but I’m usually wrong.

6 Texas at 25 Oklahoma State 8:00pm ABC

Is Texas back? If they’re back to being what they’ve been most of this life they’ll get blown the fuck out.

Hawaii at Fresno State 10:30pm ESPN2

i don’t care what the patches on the jerseys say, the WAC will never die.

19 Oregon at Arizona 10:30pm ESPN

I’m not sure the process that lead to hiring Kevin Sumlin was entirely sound but I still want him to make Arizona fun for more than a few weeks at a time. This could be worth some time just to see Justin Herbert sling the ball around.

San Diego State at Nevada 10:30pm ESPNU

Not a good game but a nice uniform matchup at least.

#saturday post #football #college football #tv watch em ups #degenerate football #gambling #fire richt

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junker-town · 6 years ago

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S&P+ spread picks for every Week 9 college football game

The week’s biggest game is a Playoff eliminator in the SEC, and here’s how S&P+ forecasts everything else in FBS as well.

If college football answers just one question this weekend, it will be: how seriously should we be taking Florida?

Dan Mullen’s first squad is up to 14th in S&P+ and ninth in the AP poll. In the last month, they have won a grind-it-out battle over Mississippi State in Starkville, handed LSU its only loss, and survived a mountain of bad turnovers luck to win by double digits at Vanderbilt. They have a top-20 defense and a top-10 special teams unit, and while their offense lags in big plays, they’ve become more efficient.

If they pull off a win over Georgia, the Gators are officially your SEC East favorites and a not-so-dark-horse Playoff contender. The Rivalry Formerly Known As the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party has produced an infinite number of unexpected results, and it wouldn’t be particularly surprising if Florida, a touchdown underdog, added another such result.

To some degree, though, this has begun to feel like too much, too soon. In the “progress is rarely linear” department, Florida could be due a setback. Georgia, meanwhile, could be ready for a bounce back after a frustrating loss in Baton Rouge.

S&P+ and Vegas just about agree on this one — S&P+ favors the Dawgs by 6.3 points with a 64 percent win probability — but run defense will be the key either way.

Florida’s offense: 25th in Rushing S&P+ (16th in rushing marginal efficiency)

Georgia’s defense: 84th in Rushing S&P+ (65th in rushing marginal efficiency)

Georgia’s offense: ninth in Rushing S&P+ (fifth in rushing marginal efficiency)

Florida’s defense: 56th in Rushing S&P+ (37th in rushing marginal efficiency)

Florida’s run defense has been a little disappointing, and Georgia’s has been a lot disappointing. Both offenses have opportunities, and both offenses desperately need to avoid obvious passing downs. Whoever’s more effective in the trenches becomes your East favorite.

Below are FBS picks and projections using the S&P+ projections, listed in full for all 130 FBS teams here.

See the bottom of the post for more detail about these.

Gotta say, this week’s lines are terrifying if you’re actually looking to make money. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen so many games with lines and projections so much in agreement. Wazzu (-3) by 3.1 over Oregon? Ohio (-16.5) by 16.51? Are you kidding me?

This document breaks games (and S&P+’s season performance to date) out into their decimal glory. This year, I am including and monitoring total (over/under) picks as well.

Weeknight games

Jeff Swinger-USA TODAY Sports

Utah’s Samson Nacua

No. 13 West Virginia 40, Baylor (+14) 29 (Oct. 25, 7:00 PM ET, FS1)

No. 23 Utah (-10.5) 34, UCLA 21 (Oct. 26, 10:30 PM ET, ESPN)

No. 25 Appalachian State (-10) 35, Georgia Southern 23 (Oct. 25, 7:30 PM ET, ESPNU)

Florida Atlantic (-3.5) 32, Louisiana Tech 28 (Oct. 26, 6:30 PM ET, CBSSN)

Miami (-3.5) 28, Boston College 23 (Oct. 26, 7:00 PM ET, ESPN)

Minnesota (+2.5) 27, Indiana 25 (Oct. 26, 8:00 PM ET, FS1)

Ohio (-11) 40, Ball State 28 (Oct. 25, 7:00 PM ET, CBSSN)

Troy (-11) 37, South Alabama 26 (Oct. 23, 8:00 PM ET, ESPN2) (actual projected score: Troy 37.3, USA 26.1) — Troy won, 38-17

Virginia Tech (-3) 35, Georgia Tech 30 (Oct. 25, 7:30 PM ET, ESPN)

Western Michigan 36, Toledo (+6.5) 32 (Oct. 25, 7:00 PM ET, ESPN2)

Wyoming (+2) 29, Colorado State 26 (Oct. 26, 10:00 PM ET, CBSSN)

Utah is S&P+’s favorite Pac-12 South team at this point, and the Utes could take a couple of steps toward their first division title by handling their business at UCLA this week and at Arizona State the next.

Ranked vs. ranked

James Snook-USA TODAY Sports

Wazzu’s Dezmon Patmon

No. 7 Georgia 32, No. 9 Florida (+7) 25 (Oct. 27, 3:30 PM ET, CBS) (actual projected score: UGA 31.7, UF 25.4)

No. 17 Penn State 28, No. 18 Iowa (+6.5) 23 (Oct. 27, 3:30 PM ET, ESPN)

No. 14 Washington State (+3) 31, No. 24 Stanford 30 (Oct. 27, 7:00 PM ET, Pac-12)

On paper, this is Mike Leach’s most legit Wazzu team. But after last week’s day-long party, can the Cougs avoid a hangover during a physical battle with disappointing Stanford?

Other ranked teams in action

Scott Sewell-USA TODAY Sports

Oklahoma State’s Mike Gundy

No. 2 Clemson (-17) 34, Florida State 15 (Oct. 27, 12:00 PM ET, ABC)

No. 3 Notre Dame 41, Navy (+23.5) 18 (Oct. 27, 8:00 PM ET, CBS) (actual projected score: ND 41.46, Navy 17.99 — Notre Dame by 23.47)

Oklahoma State (+3.5) 33, No. 6 Texas 26 (Oct. 27, 8:00 PM ET, ABC)

No. 8 Oklahoma (-24.5) 48, Kansas State 20 (Oct. 27, 3:30 PM ET, Fox)

Missouri 29, No. 12 Kentucky (+7) 25 (Oct. 27, 4:00 PM ET, SECN)

No. 15 Washington 29, California (+12) 17 (Oct. 27, 6:30 PM ET, FS1) (actual projected score: UW 29.0, Cal 17.3)

Mississippi State 26, No. 16 Texas A&M (+2) 24 (Oct. 27, 7:00 PM ET, ESPN) (actual projected score: MSU 25.61, A&M 23.63 — MSU by 1.98 ... get out of my computer, Vegas)

No. 19 Oregon 34, Arizona (+9.5) 28 (Oct. 27, 10:30 PM ET, ESPN)

No. 20 Wisconsin (-7) 35, Northwestern 24 (Oct. 27, 12:00 PM ET, Fox)

Houston 35, No. 21 USF (+7.5) 30 (Oct. 27, 3:30 PM ET, ABC/ESPN2)

No. 22 NC State 29, Syracuse (+2.5) 28 (Oct. 27, 7:00 PM ET, ESPN2)

Each year, S&P+ seems to hold onto infatuations with certain teams for longer than it maybe should. Oklahoma State might be one of those teams; the Cowboys drastically underachieved their projections in each of their last two games (a six-point loss to Iowa State and a baffling 19-point loss to Kansas State) but are still holding onto a No. 22 S&P+ ranking thanks to early-season explosiveness and friendly preseason projections.

Either that dies this week, or the Pokes pull a top-10 upset. (Or something in between, but let me believe that it’s a simple either/or.)

Power 5 vs. Power 5

Thomas J. Russo-USA TODAY Sports

Purdue’s D.J. Knox

Arkansas (+1.5) 30, Vanderbilt 25 (Oct. 27, 12:00 PM ET, SECN)

Colorado 41, Oregon State (+24.5) 24 (Oct. 27, 3:00 PM ET, Pac-12)

Duke (-3) 31, Pittsburgh 23 (Oct. 27, 3:30 PM ET, ACCN)

Iowa State 31, Texas Tech (+3.5) 30 (Oct. 27, 12:00 PM ET, ESPN2)

Louisville (-2.5) 30, Wake Forest 27 (Oct. 27, 12:00 PM ET, ACCN)

Maryland 35, Illinois (+18) 22 (Oct. 27, 3:30 PM ET, BTN)

Purdue (+1.5) 29, Michigan State 28 (Oct. 27, 12:00 PM ET, ESPN)

South Carolina 34, Tennessee (+7.5) 27 (Oct. 27, 7:30 PM ET, SECN)

TCU 31, Kansas (+13.5) 19 (Oct. 27, 3:00 PM ET, FS1)

USC 31, Arizona State (+6) 26 (Oct. 27, 3:30 PM ET, ABC/ESPN2)

Virginia (-9) 31, North Carolina 19 (Oct. 27, 12:20 PM ET, ACCN)

Like Wazzu, Purdue has to go on the road to face a physical, joy-killing, and slightly disappointing team a week after a field-rushing Saturday night win. Can Jeff Brohm get his players dialed in again?

FBS vs. FBS

Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Hawaii’s Cole McDonald

Akron (-4.5) 23, Central Michigan 19 (Oct. 27, 12:00 PM ET, ESPN3) (actual projected score: Akron 23.2, CMU 18.6)

Arkansas State 34, UL-Lafayette (+3) 33 (Oct. 27, 7:00 PM ET, ESPN+)

Boise State (-9.5) 34, Air Force 22 (Oct. 27, 7:00 PM ET, CBSSN)

BYU 24, Northern Illinois (+7) 21 (Oct. 27, 3:30 PM ET, ESPNU)

Cincinnati (-9) 32, SMU 19 (Oct. 27, 3:30 PM ET, CBSSN)

Coastal Carolina (-3.5) 38, Georgia State 34 (Oct. 27, 2:00 PM ET, ESPN+)

Eastern Michigan (-1) 33, Army 29 (Oct. 27, 12:00 PM ET, CBSSN)

Florida International 30, Western Kentucky (+3.5) 28 (Oct. 27, 7:30 PM ET, beIN)

Fresno State (-24) 43, Hawaii 17 (Oct. 27, 10:30 PM ET, ESPN2)

Middle Tennessee (-4) 32, Old Dominion 28 (Oct. 27, 3:30 PM ET, ESPN+) (actual projected score: MTSU 32.4, ODU 27.6)

North Texas (-30) 45, Rice 13 (Oct. 27, 4:00 PM ET, ESPN+)

San Diego State 26, Nevada (+3) 23 (Oct. 27, 10:30 PM ET, ESPNU) (actual projected score: SDSU 25.65, Nevada 22.69 — SDSU by 2.96)

Southern Miss (-7.5) 28, Charlotte 18 (Oct. 27, 2:00 PM ET, ESPN3)

Texas State (-3) 29, New Mexico State 23 (Oct. 27, 7:00 PM ET, ESPN3)

Tulsa 26, Tulane (+2.5) 24 (Oct. 27, 7:00 PM ET, ESPNU)

UAB (-16) 35, UTEP 16 (Oct. 27, 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+)

UMass (-5) 43, UConn 33 (Oct. 27, 12:00 PM ET, ESPNU)

UNLV (+2.5) 31, San Jose State 28 (Oct. 27, 6:30 PM ET, MWC Video)

Utah State 39, New Mexico (+20.5) 22 (Oct. 27, 4:00 PM ET, Facebook)

Earlier this season, Hawaii was college football’s most anti-social team, defying expectations in a way that made us wonder if the Warriors were a threat for the G5’s New Year’s Six bowl. They’ve now lost back-to-back games handily and are projected to continue that against dominant Fresno State and Utah State teams. If they have any defiant magic left, now would be a good time to find it.

FBS vs. FCS

Bruce Thorson-USA TODAY Sports

Nebraska’s Devine Ozigbo

Nebraska 35, Bethune-Cookman 0 (Oct. 27, 12:00 PM ET, BTN)

NU may have experienced its first 0-6 start ever, but after last week’s win over Minnesota, the Huskers should have three in four games if they take care of business against B-C and Illinois.

S&P+ tends to hit between 50 (meh) and 54 percent (great) against the spread from year to year. It isn’t always the single best performer, but it holds its own.

0 notes

junker-town · 6 years ago

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Week 8’s top-25 stakes, categorized by Playoff importance

Keeping track of top-25 schedules and results, with notes on each game.

Week 8 probably won’t be as bonkers as Week 7 (fingers crossed), but we’re now into the portion of the college football schedule in which every weekend looks clearly consequential. Quite a few top-25 teams are on byes, but we’ve got plenty of stakes elsewhere.

Below, we’re keeping track of each top-25 game’s impact, both before and after final scores, mostly paying attention to CFB committee stuff, not highlights or fun plays.

Remember the things the committee has mostly demonstrated it rewards: wins over final top-25 teams, wins over bowl teams, road wins, dominant wins, weirdly excusable losses, being Alabama, and not being a mid-major. It does not care what your opponent’s AP ranking was at kickoff.

All rankings AP, for now. All times ET on Saturday unless noted. All final scores in bold.

Probably important

Games in which the winning team will likely have a pretty high-quality Week 8 victory by season’s end. Or: really meaningful upsets.

No. 3 Clemson (6-0) vs. No. 16 NC State (5-0), 3:30, ESPN: The winner’s very likely walking away with the ACC Atlantic. NC State has played Clemson really tough two years in a row.

No. 5 LSU (6-1) vs. No. 22 Mississippi State (4-2), 7, ESPN: An LSU win sets up MANBALL CHRISTMAS against Alabama yet again. Either way, the winner’s eventual game against Texas A&M could determine the SEC West’s second best team and a New Year’s Six spot.

No. 6 Michigan (6-1) at No. 24 Michigan State (4-2), noon, Fox: The Wolverines have perfectly handled business for six weeks, but the committee needs to see them finally beat archrivals.

No. 12 Oregon (5-1) at No. 25 Washington State (5-1), 7:30, Fox: The Pac-12 North race might lose a contender, but that thing’s way too crowded to declare the winner a clear favorite.

Maybe important

Games in which the winner will probably have beaten a decent bowl team. I’m being somewhat generous to a few of these unranked teams, as far as chances of making a bowl go.

No. 1 Alabama (7-0) vs. Tennessee (3-3), 3:30, CBS: Who would’ve expected this to be a chance for Bama to beat a team with a final 6-6 record? Again, the Tide’s strength of schedule is actually fine, not that the Tide tend to need it to be.

No. 2 Ohio State (7-0) at Purdue (3-3), 7:30, ABC: Really close to being much more important, due to Purdue’s many close losses. The Buckeyes could use a really dominant road win, since I’m guessing the committee will have questions about OSU’s defense, but the Playoff path is obvious either way.

No. 9 Oklahoma (5-1) at TCU (3-3), noon, ABC: OU’s likely still making the Big 12 Championship and thus not really out of the CFP yet (the Sooners would need some help, obviously). That all changes with a second straight loss.

No. 15 Washington (5-2) vs. Colorado (5-1), 3:30, Fox: Again, refraining from any confident statements on the Pac-12. A win would be good for the winner. Ommmmmmmmm.

No. 18 Penn State (4-2) at Indiana (4-3), 3:30, ABC: PSU can still claw its way back to the NY6 again.

No. 19 Iowa (5-1) vs. Maryland (4-2), noon, ESPN2: Speaking of Big Ten teams with NY6 aspirations, I think the Hawkeyes can do it.

Important for the Group of 5 race

Since the committee’s essentially showed non-power teams aren’t eligible for the Playoff, let’s have a separate section for the race to be the top-ranked mid-major champ. I’m not including every one-loss G5 team at this point.

No. 10 UCF (6-0) at East Carolina (2-4), 7, ESPN2

No. 20 Cincinnati (6-0) at Temple (4-3), noon, ESPNU: Looking at the rest of these games, it’s clear Cincy has the most to gain, on the road against an improving Temple.

No. 21 USF (6-0) vs. UConn (1-5), 7, CBSSN

Appalachian State (4-1) vs. UL Lafayette (3-3), 3:30, ESPN+: S&P+ loves App State.

Fresno State (5-1) at New Mexico (3-3), 7:30, ESPNU: S&P+ also loves Fresno.

Houston (5-1) at Navy (2-4), 3:30, CBSSN

San Diego State (5-1) vs. San Jose State (0-6), 10:30, CBSSN

Utah State (5-1) at Wyoming (2-5), 2:30, MWC

Probably not important

The committee tries not to care about your wins over teams that finish with bad records, though you can get some credit for winning on the road or really laying it to folks. So for the ranked teams here: just don’t lose!

No. 4 Notre Dame: Idle

No. 7 Texas: Idle

No. 8 Georgia: Idle

No. 11 Florida: Idle

No. 13 West Virginia: Idle

No. 14 Kentucky (5-1) vs. Vanderbilt (3-4), 7:30, SECN

No. 17 Texas A&M: Idle

No. 23 Wisconsin (4-2) vs. Illinois (3-3), noon, FS1

0 notes

junker-town · 6 years ago

Text

Week 8’s top-25 stakes, categorized by Playoff importance

Keeping track of top-25 schedules and results, with notes on each game.

Below, we’re keeping track of each top-25 game’s impact, both before and after final scores, mostly paying attention to CFB committee stuff, not highlights or fun plays.

All rankings AP, for now. All times ET on Saturday unless noted. All final scores in bold.

Probably important

Games in which the winning team will likely have a pretty high-quality Week 8 victory by season’s end. Or: really meaningful upsets.

No. 3 Clemson (6-0) vs. No. 16 NC State (5-0), 3:30, ESPN: The winner’s very likely walking away with the ACC Atlantic. NC State has played Clemson really tough two years in a row.

No. 6 Michigan (6-1) at No. 24 Michigan State (4-2), noon, Fox: The Wolverines have perfectly handled business for six weeks, but the committee needs to see them finally beat archrivals.

No. 12 Oregon (5-1) at No. 25 Washington State (5-1), 7:30, Fox: The Pac-12 North race might lose a contender, but that thing’s way too crowded to declare the winner a clear favorite.

Maybe important

Games in which the winner will probably have beaten a decent bowl team. I’m being somewhat generous to a few of these unranked teams, as far as chances of making a bowl go.

No. 15 Washington (5-2) vs. Colorado (5-1), 3:30, Fox: Again, refraining from any confident statements on the Pac-12. A win would be good for the winner. Ommmmmmmmm.

No. 18 Penn State (4-2) at Indiana (4-3), 3:30, ABC: PSU can still claw its way back to the NY6 again.

No. 19 Iowa (5-1) vs. Maryland (4-2), noon, ESPN2: Speaking of Big Ten teams with NY6 aspirations, I think the Hawkeyes can do it.

Important for the Group of 5 race

No. 10 UCF (6-0) at East Carolina (2-4), 7, ESPN2

No. 20 Cincinnati (6-0) at Temple (4-3), noon, ESPNU: Looking at the rest of these games, it’s clear Cincy has the most to gain, on the road against an improving Temple.

No. 21 USF (6-0) vs. UConn (1-5), 7, CBSSN

Appalachian State (4-1) vs. UL Lafayette (3-3), 3:30, ESPN+: S&P+ loves App State.

Fresno State (5-1) at New Mexico (3-3), 7:30, ESPNU: S&P+ also loves Fresno.

Houston (5-1) at Navy (2-4), 3:30, CBSSN

San Diego State (5-1) vs. San Jose State (0-6), 10:30, CBSSN

Utah State (5-1) at Wyoming (2-5), 2:30, MWC

Probably not important

No. 4 Notre Dame: Idle

No. 7 Texas: Idle

No. 8 Georgia: Idle

No. 11 Florida: Idle

No. 13 West Virginia: Idle

No. 14 Kentucky (5-1) vs. Vanderbilt (3-4), 7:30, SECN

No. 17 Texas A&M: Idle

No. 23 Wisconsin (4-2) vs. Illinois (3-3), noon, FS1

0 notes