#unless of course the oilers go to the finals

[elias-petey-40]

I'm gonna yeet myself off a cliff

[sergeifyodorov]

what have you been thinking about the lightning season so far? i'm trying not to get stressed

hmmm... now this is kind of a difficult one. looking at it on its face, this lightning group is very similar to ones of old, and of course nikita kucherov is lighting the league on fire, but they're just out of a playoff spot. i think the reasons for this are twofold:

one, jonas johansson SUCKS. the bolts pretty much do not have a functional backup, which is fine most of the time because their starter is Literally Andrei Vasilevskiy. but his injury earlier made them rely on jojo (bad) and that reallly made them struggle to get off the ground. i mean it's no understatement that going from one of the best goalies in the league to one of the worst as your starter can hurt the team, but now it's like the oilers (but on a smaller scale): they've failed to bank points earlier, so they have to work at a pace above their typical one to catch up.

two, and this is a lot less fixable, i unfortunately think the lightning are... kind of exiting their competitive era? not dramatically, of course, and if they keep stamkos for ex i think they'll be able to make playoffs (and because they're The Lightning they'll probably win a round or two) for another couple of years at least, but it's... it's time. they've won the president's trophy; two cups; made the finals three years straight. a lot of their stars are aging, and that much extra hockey really takes a toll on you even if you're not brushing toes with 35.

i actually think they might have a bounce-back -- maybe a year or two of missing the playoffs, then right back in it with point/sergachev/cirelli/kucherov/vasilevskiy (once hedman and stamkos either leave or take a smaller role as they age) and have a second competitive era once the strain of so many playoff games starts to fade, but right now what they need is goaltending and rest. they have a team mentality unrivalled in the league (unless they face the leafs, i suppose) and are a thoroughly entertaining group, and i hope it's not over for them!

[andrebearakovsky]

This Week in Caps: Week 6

Welcome to This Week in Caps, a weekly newsletter where I recap everything important that’s been going on in the world of the Washington Capitals this past week.

This Week’s Games

11/05/18 vs Edmonton Oilers, W 4-2

The Caps got a four-game homestand started, Pheonix Copley got the start, and Travis Boyd made his return from injury and his season debut in place of Nic Dowd. And he’d help get the party started early.

Two and a half minutes into the game, Boyd drove to the net, Devante Smith-Pelly gathered the puck and sent it to Jakub Vrana, who scored to give the Caps an early 1-0 lead. The fourth line didn’t stop there; exactly three minutes later, Boyd cleaned up an Oilers turnover in their own zone, tapped it to Smith-Pelly, and DSP ripped it home, and the Caps had a 2-0 lead courtesy of the fourth line.

McJesus was displeased by this development, so he did something about it. Halfway through the first, Connor McDavid got the Oilers on the board on the power play, cutting the lead to 2-1. Eight minutes into the second, T.J. Oshie restored the two-goal lead, scoring top-shelf off a great pass from Nicklas Backstrom. Two and a half minutes later, Leon Draisaitl cut the lead again, deflecting a shot from the point right as an Oilers power play ended. Three minutes later, Alex Ovechkin had the final word, scoring on the power play to give the Caps a 4-2 lead, one which they would hold all throughout the third period. But it wasn’t for lack of trying to increase that lead; both Ovi and DSP hit the post on the same empty net.

The Caps ended up getting outshot 33-23 and had the disadvantage on faceoffs at 41.9%. The Caps went 1/2 on power play chances, while the Oilers went 1/4 on theirs. Copley saved 31/33 shots.

Copley, in a rare home start, had a very good game. The fourth line of Vrana, Boyd, and Smith-Pelly was fantastic. Madison Bowey was in yet again for Brooks Orpik, and both he and defensive partner Christian Djoos had good games. Additionally, Dmitrij Jaskin looked good on the top line with Ovechkin and Evgeny Kuznetsov. And as always, I enjoyed getting a look at Alternate Captain John Carlson (from this point on, just assume Orpik is out, Bowey is in, and Carlson has the A unless I say differently).

11/07/18 vs Pittsburgh Penguins, W 2-1

It’s our favorite/least favorite day of the year — the Penguins come into town on Wednesday Night Hockey. Would this game end up in satisfying victory, or agonizing defeat? Either way, it’s going to be agonizing.

Early in the first, T.J. Oshie got high-sticked under his visor, was bleeding, and had to leave for the rest of the period (he would return at the start of the second). Amazingly, there was no penalty on the play.

Twelve minutes into the first, the devil laughed at us as Sidney Crosby scored on the power play to make it 1-0 Penguins, and we were forced to listen to all of the commentators salivate until the Caps responded. Said response happened seven minutes into the second when the Caps had their own power play, and Alex Ovechkin scored from his office off a great John Carlson pass to tie the game 1-1.

Things got interesting in the third period. At the 3:27 mark, the Penguins were on a power play, and Evgeni Malkin elbowed Oshie in the head, and Oshie had to leave the game for concussion protocol. Malkin was given a major penalty and ejected from the game (later he would receive no supplemental discipline, which is a bit of a joke). The five minute penalty would be served by Patric Hornqvist; there was just over a minute of four-on-four, and then just under four minutes of all you can eat power play for the Caps, which they did nothing on.

Oshie would return to the game, and he ended up completing the heroic narrative. With a minute fifteen left in the game, Oshie collected a great pass from Carlson and roofed the puck top-shelf to give the Caps a 2-1 lead, which would end up being the winning score.

The Caps were outshot 42-22 and won 47.5% of faceoffs. The Caps were 1/6 on power play chances, while the Penguins were 1/3 on theirs. Braden Holtby saved 41/42 shots.

The Caps were severely outplayed this game, and Holtby standing on his head was the only reason they won. Oshie also had an adventure of a game that he likely won’t forget but won’t be eager to repeat.

11/09/18 vs Columbus Blue Jackets, L 1-2

There were a lot of roster shakeups prior to this game. Brooks Orpik was placed on LTIR, so Madison Bowey will be in the lineup until further notice. Additionally, John Carlson was announced as day-to-day and would not play in this game, so Jonas Siegenthaler was called up from Hershey and made his NHL debut. We’d also have the even more rare appearance of Alternate Captain T.J. Oshie.

The Caps drove play in the first period, but they were unable to cash in. And to make things worse, the first goal was scored by Columbus. Seventeen minutes into the third, the Jackets had a power play, and Nick Foligno sent a great between-the-legs pass to Oliver Bjorkstrand, who scored on the wide open net to make it 1-0 Columbus.

The Caps would respond on their own power play, eight minutes into the second. As there was no Carlson, the power play had a much different look with Matt Niskanen quarterbacking the first unit, but on this particular power play it worked out just fine. Niskanen fired home a slapshot to tie the game 1-1.

The two teams dueled for a majority of the game, but it turned out to be special teams that did the Caps in. Five minutes into the third, Anthony Duclair flipped home a puck on the power play, giving the Blue Jackets a 2-1 lead that they would not relinquish.

The Caps were outshot 36-24 and won 52.5% of faceoffs. The Caps went just 1/5 on power play chances, while the Jackets were 2/3 on theirs. Braden Holtby saved 34/36 shots.

Ultimately, it ended up being a goalie duel, and Sergei Bobrovsky outshined Holtby, who was no slouch in net. This game also ended up being decided by the special teams, and the Caps were not stellar in their special teams tonight.

A fun fact: with Siegenthaler getting into the lineup, everyone on the Capitals blue line tonight was from a different country (Bowey — Canada, Djoos — Sweden, Kempny — Czech Republic, Niskanen — USA, Orlov — Russia, Siegenthaler — Switzerland).

11/11/18 vs Arizona Coyotes, L 1-4

The throwback third jerseys made their triumphant return tonight, making their season debut. John Carlson also returned after missing one game, and some intense line shuffling meant the reunion of the treasured 8-19-77 line. And that was about it on the positives for the Caps this game.

After the majority of a lazy first period, the Coyotes struck first on the power play, with Vinnie Hinostroza dunking home a nice pass from Dylan Strome after the Caps got too excited on a shorthanded chance and got caught in the other zone. Midway through the second period, Richard Panik drove up the ice on a two-on-one and ripped home a shot to make it 2-0 Coyotes. However, the Caps would answer back quickly. Less than a minute later, Alex Ovechkin threaded a beautiful pass to Nicklas Backstrom in front of the net, and he sent it home to make it 2-1.

But the Caps would never really get the comeback going after that. Two minutes later, Alex Galchenyuk crashed the net on the power play to make it 3-1. The Capitals killed off a T.J. Oshie double-minor a minute into the third, but they were unable to gain any momentum. Derek Stepan scored on the empty net to seal the Coyotes’ 4-1 win.

The Capitals had the advantages in shots 39-22, and on faceoffs at 51.6%. However, their special teams let them down; the Coyotes went 2/6 on their power play chances, and the Caps went 0/2 on theirs. Braden Holtby saved 18/21 shots.

The Caps were unable to come up with any sort of finish, and Darcy Kuemper just flat-out stoned them all game. Overall, the game was sleepy and sluggish, passes weren’t great, and the special teams, especially the penalty kill, is something to be a little bit concerned about.

Current record: 7-6-3

What’s Going on in the World of the Caps

Roster Moves

The Caps made a number of roster moves during the week. On November 5, Nathan Walker cleared waivers and was sent to the Hershey Bears. On the same day, the Capitals recalled Travis Boyd from his conditioning loan, and he made his season debut that night against the Oilers. On November 9, the Caps made another flurry of moves. John Carlson was announced as day-to-day, but only ended up missing that night’s game against the Blue Jackets and returned the next game. Brooks Orpik was placed on LTIR retroactive to his last game in Calgary on October 27. The Capitals called up Aaron Ness and Jonas Siegenthaler from Hershey.

Nicklas Backstrom 600 Assists Ceremony

Prior to the November 7 game against the Penguins, the Capitals held a pregame ceremony honoring Nicklas Backstrom for reaching the 600-assist plateau. The Capitals showed a tribute video, and Ted Leonsis presented him with a golden puck and a crystal with the number 600 engraved into them. Check out the video and highlights here.

Jonas Siegenthaler’s NHL Debut

After a strong training camp, Jonas Siegenthaler was called up from Hershey and made his NHL debut on November 9 against the Columbus Blue Jackets, filling in for an injured John Carlson. Siegenthaler admitted getting the opportunity was the happiest he’s been in his life, and he played pretty solidly alongside Madison Bowey. And he was, of course, given the rookie treatment.

Caps Cancer Night and Skate

November 9 against the Blue Jackets was Hockey Fights Cancer Night in Washington. The Capitals wore lavender jerseys during warm-ups, and Linda Laughlin, wife of Caps color analyst Craig Laughlin, dropped the ceremonial puck. Linda was recently diagnosed with a rare form of uterine cancer. After practice on November 10, the Capitals hosted their Hockey Fights Cancer Skate, and skated with kids from Make-A-Wish Mid-Atlantic. Each kid was paired with a Capitals player for the skate. (x)(x)

Other Miscellaneous Happenings

Ovi bites Andre

A look at the 2019 Canine Calendar, which goes on sale November 21

Check out Braden Holtby’s suit

Andre broke the glass at practice

Nicklas Backstrom has a cute family

Player of the Week

Braden Holtby had his best week of the season, including a stellar game against Pittsburgh that he completely dominated. In his three games this week, Holtby had a .939 save percentage and a 2.03 GAA. He also saved all but one shot at even strength, saving a total of 81 of 82 shots.

Social Media Post of the Week

As Tom was unable to be on the ice to support his buddy TJ after his adventure on November 7 against the Penguins, Tom went to Twitter to show his support. (x)

Stars of the Night Season Leaderboard

Over the course of the season, I will be keeping track of the Caps stars of the night, translating them into points, and organizing them into a leaderboard.

1st star = 5 pts, 2nd star = 3 pts, 3rd star = 1 pt

1. Kuznetsov — 16 2. Ovechkin — 13 3. Holtby — 9 4. Carlson — 7 5. Backstrom — 6 6. Copley — 5 7. Oshie — 4 8. Smith-Pelly — 3 9. Eller — 2 10. Boyd — 1

Achieved and Upcoming Milestones

On 11/05/18 vs the Oilers, Alex Ovechkin scored a power play goal to become tied for 8th on the all-time NHL power play goals list (234); on 11/07/18 vs the Penguins, he scored another to take sole possession of 8th on the all-time NHL power play goals list (235); he tied and passed Marcel Dionne On 11/11/18 vs the Coyotes, John Carlson played in his 623rd NHL game, passing Sylvain Cote for 6th all-time in games played among Capitals defensemen Nicklas Backstrom is 7 points away from being tied for 2nd in Caps history in points (825) Nicklas Backstrom is 1 power play goal away from being tied for 5th in Caps history in power play goals (67) John Carlson is 2 power play goals away from being tied for 7th in Caps history in power play goals among defensemen (25) Evgeny Kuznetsov is 1 assist away from 200 career NHL assists Dmitry Orlov is 4 assists away from 100 career NHL assists T.J. Oshie is 5 goals away from 200 career NHL goals Devante Smith-Pelly is 3 points away from 100 career NHL points Madison Bowey and Travis Boyd are searching for their first NHL goals Dmitrij Jaskin is searching for his first goal as a Capital

Next Week’s Upcoming Games

11/13/18 @ Minnesota Wild (8 PM) 11/14/18 @ Winnipeg Jets (8 PM) 11/16/18 @ Colorado Avalanche (9 PM)

[junker-town]

NFL legend Dick Butkus got verified on Twitter and roasted Aaron Rodgers and everyone else

Photo by Focus on Sport/Getty Images

Dick Butkus is just as great at Twitter as he was at football.

Dick Butkus is known as one of the meanest football players in NFL history. He’s also one of the most dominant linebackers the game has ever seen. A standout middle linebacker at University of Illinois and then for the Chicago Bears across the 1960s and early ‘70s, the stories about Butkus would sound like urban legend if they weren’t verified by so many of his peers and caught on video.

At 6’3 and 245 pounds, Butkus would still be a big linebacker today — and he was massive for his era. No one hit harder. Hall of Famer Deacon Jones famously said of Butkus “every time he hit you, he tried to put you in the cemetery, not the hospital.” Butkus had a reputation for doing whatever it took to intimidate his opponents. He would allegedly bite players during pileups, or gouge them in the eyes. He reportedly once went out of his way to run over Vikings QB Fran Tarkenton after intercepting him. I’ve always deeply loved a clip of Butkus picking off the Houston Oilers, and then shaking the ball in their receiver’s face before running downfield.

In addition to being ruthless on the field, Butkus has long had a reputation for being hilarious off of it. ”I wouldn’t ever go out to hurt anybody deliberately,” Butkus once said. “Unless it was, you know, important—like a league game or something.” It’s probably no surprise that he went on to have an acting career after he retired.

Butkus is now 79 years old and continues to be involved in his charity foundation. Over the last few weeks, Butkus has had one main objective: to get verified on Twitter. Butkus joined the platform in September 2020, and all the man wanted was a blue check. He went about it with his typical wit.

hey @AaronRodgers12 help me get verified or more than your toe will be hurting

— Dick Butkus (@thedickbutkus) January 14, 2022

Butkus finally got his wish on Friday when a blue check mark showed up next to his name. Finally Dick Butkus was verified.

His first move with a blue check mark? Call out anyone who ever doubted his ability to get verified.

just like that got the blue hashmark now lets start calling out all of the doubters

— Dick Butkus (@thedickbutkus) January 21, 2022

Butkus spent the rest of the day responding to fans. While he gave plenty of thoughtful and kind messages to people congratulating him on his check mark, he also roasted folks when he felt like it.

he almost looks like a homeless leprecon with that beard

— Dick Butkus (@thedickbutkus) January 21, 2022

sorry you are still trapped in a kids body

— Dick Butkus (@thedickbutkus) January 21, 2022

Of course, he had to take aim at Rodgers again. Yes, that Bears-Packers rivalry runs deep. Rodgers famously told the Bears he owns them during the regular season, and he’s essentially been doubling down on being a miserable idiot for months now.

Butkus isn’t letting him off the hook.

now that i have the blue mark i can kick people off of the platfrom right you hear me @AaronRodgers12

— Dick Butkus (@thedickbutkus) January 21, 2022

also sorry to disappoint some of you packers fans now that im trendy its not becuase im dead

— Dick Butkus (@thedickbutkus) January 21, 2022

Please let Butkus keep tweeting like this forever:

its been over an hour since ive been verified and i dont understand why none of the sponsorship money has hit the account yet

— Dick Butkus (@thedickbutkus) January 21, 2022

thank you to everyone inviting me onto podcasts and into their basements and all that

— Dick Butkus (@thedickbutkus) January 19, 2022

”If I had a choice, I’d sooner go one-on-one with a grizzly bear,” former Green Bay Packers running back MacArthur Lane once said of Butkus. “I prayed that I could get up every time Butkus hit me.”

For younger readers who aren’t familiar with Butkus, check out these highlights:

Seriously: they don’t make them like Butkus anymore. What a treasure.

[tyson-berry-blog]

Leon Draisaitl #1 - Reunion

Anon asked: Can you do a Leon one where you guys go back to your hometown and you see a bunch of your old classmates (who you hated, like you hate where you're from) and you have to introduce him and for once they're all up on your ass because of him? You can take it wherever you want and it can be in whatever setting. I just think it'd be interesting lol. also like your old classmates are kinda rude to you? Like wow can't believe he's dating you? sorta thing? thanks love!!

I can for sure do this! I don’t know what it is but I love the idea when you can prove the naysayers wrong and show them that their terrible personalities didn't keep you down. I am all for personal growth! I think everyone has had their fair share of bullying growing up, I know I did. I hope that none of you all had to go through anything but I know that people can be cruel. That being said, if anyone ever needs someone to talk to, I am here to lend an ear. None of you should go through anything alone. Sorry, I am getting off track. Anon, I hope you enjoy this!

You were sitting in the living room, flipping through the television channels when the front door opened. Leon had spent the last few hours with some of the guys which allowed you to get some much needed work done. When he walked into the room he raised an eyebrow at you sitting on the couch, your papers ignored on the coffee table.

“I’m taking a break!” you insisted.

Leon shook his head fondly and said nothing. Instead, he dropped down next to you on the couch and flipped through the stack of mail in his hands. You turned your attention back to the television but a noise of interest had you glancing back at your boyfriend.

“What?” you asked.

He handed an envelope with your name on it over to you. The return address at the top was from your hometown and a feeling of dread formed in your stomach.

Leon looked at your expression, “what is it?”

You ignored him and with shaking fingers, opened the letter. Inside, as you suspected, was an invitation to your five-year high school reunion. A five-year reunion always seemed like a dumb idea to you. Most of your classmates would have just finished up college and entered the workforce and some might have even chosen to continue with their education. It seemed silly to return after only five-years; essentially nothing had changed.

After high school you moved to Edmonton for college. It was there that you eventually met your best friends, secured a great job and began dating Leon. All of this helped you to forget about your small hometown and realize that not everyone you interacted with in life was out to get you. The biggest and frankly only downside you could see about Edmonton was that fact that it was only a three-hour drive from your hometown. It was far away but in this case, not far enough.

Leon took the letter from your hands after you failed to answer him, and read it for himself.

“You have to go.”

You scoffed, “I’m not going. High school was an awful time for me and I do not want to go back there.”

“What if I go with you?”

“What?”

“For support. Plus, I want to see where you grew up.”

“Are you serious?” you looked at him, incredulous.

He nodded.

“My classmates were jerks.”

“All the more reason to show them how great you turned out.”

“You aren’t going to let this go are you?”

He smiled, “nope!”

“Fine. I guess we can go, but as soon as they start being awful, we leave.”

“Deal.”

Several weeks passed and you had forgotten all about the reunion until Leon asked if you were driving or flying.

“Driving or flying to what?”

“The reunion. Are we driving or flying?”

“The reunion?” realization dawned on you. “I totally forgot.”

Leon simply laughed.

“Don’t laugh, you jerk.”

“I’ll buy the plane tickets. When do we want to leave?”

“Hmmm,” you pretended to think. “How about never?”

“Be serious, please.”

“The afternoon of. I want to spend as little time there as possible.”

“Should I book a hotel room too?”

“Unless you want to sleep outside,” you couldn’t help the harshness in your tone.

Leon took it all in stride, as he usually did. Instead of further prodding you he pressed a kiss to the top of your head and went to search for his computer.

 “I cannot believe you bought first class tickets,” you hissed at Leon while standing in line to board.

Leon shrugged nonchalantly but by the small curve of his lips you could tell he was pleased. He understood that he made more money in a year than you could ever dream of and liked to use it to treat you.

Of course there were Oilers fans all around and the attendant who scanned your tickets was no different. His eyes widened at the name on the boarding pass and he looked up at Leon in awe.

“Have a nice flight Mr. Draisaitl,” he stuttered out.

You handed over your own ticket and it took a second for the attendant to gather his thoughts. He scanned yours and waved you through with a quick, “enjoy your flight.”

You stored your bag and sat down in the window seat. Leon settled in next to you, lacing his fingers through yours.

“It’s going to be okay.”

“I can’t believe I let you talk me into this. They were the worst.”

“It’s going to be okay,” he repeated.

“How do you know that?”

“You have me.”

He said it like it was the most obvious thing in the world and maybe it was. Leon always had your back, and if he thought something were to happen to you, he wouldn’t have made you do this.

 The flight was over far too quickly and because neither of you checked your bags, you didn’t have to wait for the luggage carousal. This meant that there was nothing left to prolong you from leaving the airport and the sense of dread made a reappearance. Leon didn’t even have to look at you to know how you were feeling so he reached for your hand and led you through the small crowd to the rental car check in. Everything was quickly squared away and the two of you walked to the numbered spot. Sitting in the space was a red Porsche.

“Leon,” your eyes widened. “What the hell is this?”

“German cars are the best cars.”

“You are ridiculous.”

“I love you too.”

You were grateful for the tinted windows as the two of you drove through the streets of your home town. People stopped to watch the monstrosity drive by and hoped to catch a glimpse of who was inside. The hotel you pulled up to was significantly more subdued than the car but that is due to your town not having any lavish architecture. Leon unloaded the luggage and went to the front desk to check in. The two of you rode the elevator up in silence, Leon exited ahead of you to unlock the door. He pushed his luggage into the corner of the room and face planted into the mattress, disrupting the carefully laid out pillows. You rolled your eyes, but nudged him over so you could lay down as well. He automatically lifted his arm for you to crawl under. You were more tired than you felt you should have been but with the warmth of being cuddled by your boyfriend, you were falling asleep in mere minutes.

 A poke to the cheek woke you up. You glared up at your boyfriend, pulled a pillow over your head and turned your back to him.

“Get up.”

“I don’t want to you,” your words were muffled by the pillow.

“The reunion starts in an hour.”

“Can’t we just skip it and stay here?”

“I can’t hear you with that pillow on your head.”

You pushed the pillow onto the floor, “let’s just stay here.”

“As much as I would like that, we came all this way. We can’t back out now.”

“Yes we can.”

“You aren’t a quitter.”

“Maybe I can start.”

Leon grabbed your ankle and pulled you towards the end of the bed. With a huff you pushed yourself up and went to shower. The warm water helped wash away that last bit of grogginess and the stale feeling from traveling by plane. Leon opened the door just as you were shutting off the water.

“Leon get out!”

“Nothing I haven’t seen before,” he said before brushing his teeth.

You wrapped one towel around your body and the other around your hair. Leon made eye contact with you in the mirror and winked. You hoisted your bag onto the end of the bed and unzipped it with one hand, the other was holding your towel in place. The dress you had packed was one you wore to an Oilers function a few months back. It was appropriate to wear in a professional setting but still casual enough that it didn’t look like you were heading to a meeting. You laid the dress next to Leon’s outfit on the bed and waited for him to finally leave the bathroom so you could dry your hair. Half an hour later you were slipping on your shoes and Leon was fastening the last of the button on his shirt.

You straightened up and caught him looking at you, “what?”

“You look great.”

“You’re just saying that.”

“I’m not. I don’t know what those kids did to you but it was clearly their loss.”

Leon saved you from having to feel awkward about accepting the compliment by grabbing the car keys and ushering you out into the hall. Your high school was only a fifteen-minute ride from the hotel which didn’t give you a lot of time to think, which was probably a good thing. He pulled the car into an open spot near the front of the lot, this meant that there was no hiding your face when you got out.

Leon looked at you, “ready?”

“As I’ll ever be,” you answered.

You took a deep breath and pushed the door open. Leon had already made his way around to stand next to you and graciously offered his arm. You put yours through his and held on tighter than what was probably comfortable.

The gym’s doors were propped open and immediately inside was a table of nametags. On the tags, along with your name was your senior photo. It wasn’t the worst photo of you but still one you’d rather forget. For the guests was a tag with their name in large letters and beneath it in a smaller font, who they were with. Sitting behind the table was the senior class vice president from your year and thorn in your side: Annabelle Ferris. She looked up at your approach and plastered on a small smile when she saw it was you. To anyone else it would appear friendly but you were all too familiar with it to be fooled. She looked down at her clipboard and checked off your name.

“We weren’t sure you were going to make it.”

“Who is ‘we’?” you asked.

“You know, the old gang.”

“How could I pass up an opportunity to come back here?”

Annabelle smiled again and passed your name badge over to you. “Is your plus one going to be joining you?”

“My boyfriend, yes he -”

“Is right here,” Leon stepped out from behind you and extended his hand towards Annabelle.

Your hometown was in Edmonton territory so you knew by the shocked look on her face that she recognized who he was.

When Annabelle said nothing Leon broke the silence, “the name is Leon Draisaitl. Do I need to spell it out? It’s D-r-a-i-”

“No that’s alright. I have it right here.” Annabelle passed his nametag over to him. He was all too satisfied to stick it onto his shirt.

“So,” you pointed to the double doors. “Just through there?”

The tight smile reappeared along with a quick nod and you pulled Leon along with you. The gym looked the same, which was no surprise. The floor was covered in table though and balloons filled every corner. A DJ was up on the stage, looking too into it for a high school reunion. Along the back wall were the food and drinks.

“You go get a table and I’ll grab us some drinks,” Leon said.

You nodded and went to find the least occupied table you could. The one closest to the bathroom was unsurprisingly empty so you sat down. Not even three minutes later were you joined by the ‘we’ that Annabelle had referenced earlier. Tracy Smith, Harrison Reynolds and Michael Jones along with Annabelle loved to torment you all throughout your four years there. The three of them sat down in the chairs closest to you and made themselves comfortable.

“Look who it is,” Harrison was the first to speak up.

“What do you want?”

“Whoa, whoa, don’t act too eager to see us,” added Michael.

“I couldn’t be less pleased even if I tried.”

Tracy rolled her eyes, “you don’t have to be so rude. We saw you sitting here alone and decided to help you.”

“Not that it is any of your business, but I am not here alone.”

“Who are you here with?” Michael asked.

“That’s none of your concern.”

“You don’t have to lie to us,” Tracy smirked. “We’re all friends here.”

“I am not associated with any of you.”

“You don’t have to be such a bitch,” Harrison spat out.

“What did you just say?”

The three of them whipped around to come face to face with your boyfriend. The plastic cup in his hand cracked slightly under the pressure of his tight grip.

“Holy shit! You’re Leon Draisaitl! Your goal against Calgary last week was totally sick man.” Harrison was nearly vibrating with excitement at the sight of him.

“What did you say?”

“That your goal was sick?”

“About my girlfriend,” Leon clarified.

Tracy scoffed, “girlfriend? Who? Her?” She pointed at you.

“Yes, her.”

You hadn’t seen Leon this mad off the ice and you weren’t sure how to handle it. The three of them clearly didn’t know how to either given by how they visibly shifted away from him.

“We were just messing around man,” Michael said quietly. “It was just a joke.”

Leon looked at you, “are you laughing?”

“No.”

“She isn’t laughing, and I’m not either. Clearly it wasn’t a good joke.”

“No need to be so uptight,” said Tracy.

This only infuriated Leon more. “Now I get why she didn’t want to come back here and yet I forced her. You guys are all jerks and don’t deserve to make my girlfriend feel bad. She is the nicest, funniest and kindest person I know.” He looked down at you, “let’s go.”

You didn’t hesitate to stand up and follow him out. You watched Annabelle’s surprised expression as Leon stormed out and you couldn’t even muster a witty response. It wasn’t worth it. Leon was several paces in front of you and thus the first one into the car. He was gripping the steering wheel tight enough to turn his knuckles white.

You put your hand on his arm, “it’s okay.”

“It’s not okay!”

“That was nothing compared to some of the other things they’ve said.”

“They can’t talk to you like that!”

“They have and I just let it go. No use dwelling on it if it isn’t going to help me in life.”

“I’m sorry I made you come. You tried to tell me and I didn’t listen.”

You squeezed his arm gently, “I was the one to agree to this. You didn’t tie me up and force me onto the plane.”

“But I pressured you.”

“Leon, it’s fine. I promise.”

“I feel awful.”

“Look at me,” he turned to face you. “Why don’t we go back to the hotel and order way too much room service and fall asleep watching a movie?”

“I promise I’ll make it up to you.”

“You defending me was enough.”

“It wasn’t. It was the bare minimum.”

“Knowing you have my back makes everything better.”

“I always have your back,” he looked mildly offended at the implication that he wouldn’t defend you.

“I know you do. C’mon, let’s get out of here. The sooner we leave this parking lot, the better.”

“I will buy you all the room service you could possibly want.”

You leaned across the gear shift and kissed his cheek, “I know you will.”

[thrashermaxey]

Dobber Ramblings: Day Two of the NHL Playoffs; Gusev; Defence Scoring – April 12

  There may be reinforcements on the way for Vegas as Nikita Gusev, the 26-year old Russian who was traded to the Golden Knights by Tampa Bay as part of the package to draft Jason Garrison in the expansion draft, could be in Vegas soon.

You can read Gusev’s Dobber Prospects profile here.

Nothing is a done deal yet. Gusev is under contract in the KHL through the end of the month, which means some negotiating will need to be completed, and the Russian Federation has recalled him ahead of the 2019 World Championships, which is another hurdle. Then he has to actually make his way to Vegas and suit up. All the same, it would be exciting to see him in the playoffs.

*

Just a small thing, but Ilya Samsonov, Washington’s top goalie prospect, was on the ice for morning skate on Thursday. Barring catastrophic injuries, he won’t get into game action, but it’s still pretty cool to see him on NHL ice nonetheless.

*

Just for a bit of fun, there was an article over at The Athletic from Sean McIndoe about the “what ifs” of the draft lottery. These are games involving teams near or around the picks that would end up in the top-3 and how things would be different if small little quirks in those games hadn’t gone the right way. Hockey is about razor-thin margins, even when it comes to draft positioning.

*

The Leafs were flat-out the better team in Game 1 as they skated away with a 4-1 win over Boston. The speed from Toronto, combined with precision passing, led to odd-man opportunity after odd-man opportunity for the team. They even got a short-handed penalty shot when Mitch Marner broke free on a penalty kill (he converted). Frederik Andersen had to make 37 saves, but a lot of those saves weren’t near the quality of shots Tuukka Rask was facing at the other end.

Something to note: Jake Gardiner played 16:32 in this game, fifth-lowest among Leafs blue liners. That’s the second-lowest mark of the season for him, his lowest being 16:30 in the game he was injured on February 25th. The Leafs were nursing a 3-1 lead for much of the game so maybe Mike Babcock was just saving him unless they desperately needed him? Just something to keep an eye on.

*

Andrei Svechnikov scored a pair of third-period goals to make things interesting for Carolina, but Washington’s Lars Eller tallied an empty netter to seal a 4-2 win for the Capitals. At least for the first 20 minutes, this looked like a game between a defending Stanley Cup champion and a (mostly) young team with several players playing their first postseason contest.

Nicklas Backstrom had a pair of goals, including a beautiful curl-and-snap shot that beat Petr Mrazek on the glove side, using the Carolina defenceman as a screen.

John Carlson played over 25 minutes, registering three assists, two blocked shots, and four hits along the way.

*

Update on the late game in the morning.

*

Yesterday in these Ramblings I talked a lot about defence scoring trends. While there is a lot more to dig into, which I will dig into at some point in the offseason, I want to look at actual defence scoring. Let’s go through some of the offensive performances across the NHL this season.

  Erik Gustafsson

There is a whole lot going on here. Coming into the season, Gustafsson was a 26-year old who’d been drafted by the Oilers in 2012, spent a few post-lockout seasons in Sweden, bounced between the AHL and NHL for a couple years, and then exploded for 60 points this year.

Of course, what stands out immediately is that he shot over 10 percent. That’s pretty high for a blue liner. For reference, in 2017-18, Alex Goligoski shot 10.1 percent and followed that up this year with a 2.9 percent season; in 2016-17, John Klingberg shot 10.5 percent and followed that up in 2017-18 with a 3.9 percent season; in the same year, Nick Holden shot an insane 13.1 percent and that crashed to five percent in 2017-18. That isn’t to say every defenceman with a high shooting percentage always craters – Shea Weber has usually done pretty well – but the odds aren’t in Gustafsson’s favour.

That isn’t to say Gustafsson’s season is a fluke. When looking at additional stats like the rate at which he exits his zone or enters the offensive zone with possession and how he can find his teammates for shots via shot assists, we certainly see how good he was. Here’s how his 2018-19 season compares to the 2017-18 season another top-end puck-moving defenceman (from CJ Turtoro’s viz):

  As I wrote about yesterday on Eric Cernak, one season does not make a career, but despite the high shooting percentage, it was a marvelous campaign for Gustafsson.

The question is if he maintains his power-play role; he had more than 100 minutes at five-on-four over the next-closest Blackhawks defenceman. Henri Jokiharju looked great whenever they allowed him to play in the NHL and Adam Boqvist was a top-10 pick last year for the franchise and has been tearing up the OHL playoffs to the tune of nine goals and 12 points in eight games. It seems certain that unless he falls off the map (he won’t), Gustafsson should have the PP role for 2019-20. Beyond that? Less certain.

  Torey Krug

Speaking of Krug, we can only wonder the season he would have had if he had played 80 games. Among defencemen in the league this year, Krug:

Was third in points per minute behind Mark Giordano and Brent Burns

Was first in totals assists per minute

Was eighth in primary points per minute

Was third in primary assists per minute

Was 18th in shots per minute

Krug set a career-high in assists for a single season with 47 and did so in just 64 games.

It was just a marvelous season all around, but the true upside was limited by injury. It’s worth noting that his missed time was out of the norm for him; in his five previous seasons, he had never missed more than six games and averaged 79 games a season. I wouldn’t worry too much about some lingering injury history.

With Krug still in his prime and that Boston team loaded for another run next year regardless of how this year turns out, I would expect more of the same from Krug.

  Vince Dunn

When using the Dobber Tools report generator, we can easily find which defencemen led the league in individual points percentage (IPP) at even strength. IPP is the rate at which a player garners a point when a goal is scored with that player on the ice. You will typically see the elite defencemen; last year, the top-5 included Burns, Krug, Pietrangelo, and Klingberg. The year before it was Burns, Hamilton, Karlsson, Jones, and Shattenkirk. Some guys find their way into the top-10 with some luck – names like Skjei, Severson, and Braun appear – but they’re mostly top-end puck-movers. That’s what makes this list from 2018-19 so interesting:

    The two names that really stick out are Vince Dunn and Brandon Montour. We’ll save Montour for another day.

Dunn has long been thought of as an offensive defenceman. He had 99 points over his final 120 games in the OHL and had 45 points in 72 games as a 20-year old rookie in the AHL back in 2016-17. That we see him among the leaders in a category that helps point us in the direction of puck movers shouldn’t be a huge surprise.

Here’s the thing: there’s not a whole lot to support that Dunn is a top-end puck-mover from the blue line (yet). Without inundating with charts, his zone entry/exit rates and shot-assist rates pale in comparison to someone like Gustafsson. It’s worth noting that these numbers, specifically shot-assists, were a lot better in 2017-18 than in 2018-19, and this season’s tracking data isn’t yet complete. Maybe his numbers improved a lot in the second half as the rest of the team improved with him. I’m more than willing to give some time for more data to be collected before making a final determination.

All I’m saying for now is that I’m leery of predicting some sort of Gustafsson-esque breakout. There is still Alex Pietrangelo’s ice time to contend with and Colton Parayko isn’t someone to just eschew. Of course, Dunn is still just 22 years old, so the fact that we’re even talking about the possibility of him being a good playmaker from the blue line is a very good sign.

  Neal Pionk

When we look at the list of top producers per minute from the blue line at five-on-four, most of the names make sense. We see Krug, Byfuglien, Yandle, Hedman, and Rielly, among others. The defenceman who finished second in points/60 minutes at five-on-four this year (minimum of 100 minutes)? Yeah, I kinda gave it away. It was Pionk. In fact, over the last two years, he leads all defencemen in points/60 minutes on the power play. Yes, all defencemen. Granted, it’s limited ice time (140 minutes or so), but it’s been an unbelievable run.

I think a bit of caution should be used here. Pionk had a poor season defensively, as much of the rest of the team did. Tony DeAngelo had a good season for the team even if David Quinn wouldn’t play him every night. Kevin Shattenkirk is still lurking and I’m sure he’d like to have a rebound season of his own. I’m not entirely sure what the Rangers are going to do on the blue line next year. I’m not entirely sure the Rangers know what the Rangers are going to do on the blue line next year.

All I wanted to point out is that there could be some sneaky value should A) Pionk be a regular next year again and B) no one else is brought in. There are a lot of moving parts that can change in the next 5-6 months.

  Filip Hronek

Just wanted to include what a great season Hronek had. The 21-year old was among the top-10 defencemen in relative shot share at five-on-five. That’s in the league, mind you.

Hronek had 13 points in 22 games after his recall from the AHL in the middle of February, including nearly 22 minutes of ice time per night. By that point, the team was casting off, or getting ready to cast off, tradeable assets like Nick Jensen and Gustav Nyquist. Mike Green’s season was nearly over by that point. All this is to say that Hronek did fairly well down the stretch considering the Red Wings were largely a one-line team with Andreas Athanasiou providing some additional scoring. Pretty good for a rookie defenceman.

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-rambling/dobber-ramblings-day-2-of-the-nhl-playoffs-gusev-defence-scoring-april-12/

[thegloober]

Karlsson, Columbus and the Senators: the 10 best storylines entering 2018-19 season

News

On the eve of the 2018-19 season, we look at the 10 most intriguing storylines, including the Sharks’ game-changing acquisition of Erik Karlsson and the impact that deal will have on the Senators.

Artemi Panarin|Jamie Sabau/NHLI via Getty Images

One more sleep, unless of course you count the pre-game nap tomorrow as a sleep. That’s all that remains until the start of the 2017-18 NHL season. To get you primed, here are 10 of the most intriguing storylines that have emerged going into the campaign.

1. The post-millennials, or whatever it is they’re calling them these days. When Jesperi Kotkaniemi of the Montreal Canadiens and Rasmus Dahlin of the Buffalo Sabres step on the ice for their first NHL games Wednesday and Thursday night, respectively, they’ll become the first players born in the year 2000 to play in one of the Big Four professional sports leagues. Both Andrei Svechnikov (Carolina) and Barrett Hayton (Arizona) will start the season on their teams’ rosters, but it’s not clear whether they’ll play immediately The fact that Dahlin will accomplish the feat comes as no surprise, but Kotkaniemi is a player nobody but the draft nerds had even heard of this time a year ago. Dahlin is a beacon of hope for a Sabres team that hopes to be playing meaningful games and contending for a playoff spot down the stretch this season, but it should be remembered that the learning curve for a young defenseman can be a steep one. Kotkaniemi will start the season in Montreal and have ample chance to prove he belongs there.

2. Can Ty Rattie blossom as Connor McDavid’s right winger? The Edmonton Oilers did almost nothing to improve their team from a roster standpoint, so they’re going to have to improve from within. And there is reason to believe that should happen. Jesse Puljujarvi is showing glimpses of the promise he showed when he was drafted fourth overall in 2016 and a full season of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins alongside McDavid is tantalizing. But the Oilers need more than Puljujarvi to bolster their right side and Rattie, who lit it up in the pre-season alongside McDavid, could be a key to that. It’s not as though he’s not capable of producing offense. He was a huge producer in junior and he’s only 25. Then again, he’s never come close to doing it at the NHL level and he’s on his third organization. And if he can’t do it, you can just envision McDavid saying, “Pfft. I guess I’ll just do it myself, then.”

3. The Columbus conundrum. Here at The Hockey News, we picked the Blue Jackets to finish first in the Metropolitan Division. They have the potential to be a legitimate Stanley Cup contender, but they’re staring down the barrel of losing franchise cornerstones Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky for nothing in the off-season to free agency. Panarin is almost certainly gone and Bobrovsky is a good bet. So what do the Blue Jackets do? It’s not as though they’re in a rebuilding mode and have the option of moving both players for futures. So the Blue Jackets will likely bite the bullet and ride Panarin and Bobrovsky as far as they can this season, thank them for their work, and watch them leave.

4. Erik Karlsson changes everything. When the San Jose Sharks obtained Erik Karlsson from the Ottawa Senators in the off-season, they served notice that they have no intention of being left out of the Stanley Cup conversation. Think about it. They’ll be in a position where they can basically have one of Karlsson, Brent Burns or Marc-Andre Vlasic on the ice for every second of every game. And how do teams defend against a defense corps that can move the puck the way these guys do? The Sharks will be both fun to watch and scary good if they put all the pieces together.

5. Speaking of the Senators, how much worse can it get? A lot worse. If things go as expected, the Senators might be guilty of the worst draft blunder since the California Golden Seals in 1971. That was the year that Montreal Canadiens GM Sam Pollock traded Ernie Hicke to the Golden Seals for their first pick in the draft. He then dealt Ralph Backstrom to the Los Angeles Kings to ensure the Seals finished last, thereby giftwrapping either Guy Lafleur or Marcel Dionne as the No. 1 pick. The Canadiens went with Lafleur and the Golden Seals foundered. If the Senators finish last and put themselves in the best position to win the lottery, the same thing could happen with phenom Jack Hughes, since their first-round pick was dealt to Colorado last season in the Matt Duchene deal. It will be interesting to see if the Senators keep Duchene and Mark Stone, risking losing them for nothing as UFAs, in an effort to try to stay out of last place and save face.

6. The Vegas Misfits are primed for success once again. The Vegas Golden Knights enter the season a better team than the one that shocked the NHL and advanced to the Stanley Cup final. Full stop. The additions of Paul Stastny and Max Pacioretty represent upgrades to what they had. Can the Knights handle the weight of expectation and far closer scrutiny and get over the Stanley Cup hump this season? It’s not unfathomable.

7. The retooled St. Louis Blues. During the off-season, the newly acquired Ryan O’Reilly said, “A Stanley Cup is possible.” And he’s right. With the acquisitions the Blues made over the summer, combined with some of the young talent already in the lineup, the Blues are firmly ensconced as second-tier Cup contenders. But guess what? The Washington Capitals were in that group themselves this time a year ago. With Brayden Schenn, O’Reilly, Tyler Bozak and 19-year-old Robert Thomas down the middle, the Blues have the depth at that position to hang with the big boys in the Western Conference. A full and healthy year from Jaden Schwartz and Robby Fabbri gives them Cup-level depth of offense.

8. Do the Penguins have one more Cup in them? Any team that boasts the likes of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang gives itself at least a fighting chance to accomplish something special. But time is running out for the Penguins. Even though they may not have a Chicago-like decline in their future, the window is most definitely closing. It will be interesting to see what GM Jim Rutherford does to surround his core with the supporting cast it needs to go for another Cup.

9. The Year of the Cat? The Panthers are still relegated to being the second-best team in the state of Florida, but after years of misery and mismanagement, things are looking up. The acquisition of Mike Hoffman gives the Panthers two solid lines that can score and take the pressure off one another when it comes to facing opposing checkers. Florida went 25-8-2 from late January to the end of the season. It will be interesting to see what happens if that version of the Panthers shows up to start the season.

10. St. Pettersson in Vancouver. The betting sites are giving Elias Pettersson of the Canucks the best odds of winning the Calder Trophy, one year after Brock Boeser finished second in rookie-of-the-year voting. The Sedin-less Canucks are hoping they have another Henrik Sedin on their hands in Pettersson, who did nothing during the pre-season to dampen the enthusiasm the Canucks and the hockey world have for him. The Canucks won’t be near Stanley Cup-contender status anytime soon, but Pettersson gives them more hope than they’ve had since 2011.

Tags: arizona coyotes, buffalo sabres, carolina hurricanes, columbus blue jackets, edmonton oilers, florida panthers, lists, montreal canadiens, ottawa senators, pittsburgh penguins, san jose sharks, st. louis blues, vancouver canucks, vegas golden knights

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About the Author

Ken Campbell

Ken Campbell, The Hockey News’ senior writer, is in his second tour with the brand after an eight-year stint as a beat reporter for the Maple Leafs for the Toronto Star. The Sudbury native once tried out for the Ontario League’s Wolves as a 30-year-old. Needless to say, it didn’t work out.

Source: https://bloghyped.com/karlsson-columbus-and-the-senators-the-10-best-storylines-entering-2018-19-season/

[yahoo-puck-daddy-blog]

What We Learned: The Wild are going to be expensive, but will they be good?

The Wild have a large range of outcomes for 2018-19. (Photo by Jason Halstead /Getty Images)

Off the top of your head, where do you see the Minnesota Wild finishing in the Central this season?

They’re only technically in the same league as the division’s twin titans of Nashville and Winnipeg, which seem destined to finish 1-2  (you pick the order).

Of course, the Wild finished in that third spot last year; a distant third, mind you, with a 13-point gap between Winnipeg and themselves. And that came with some serious ups and downs; they were one of the worst possession teams in the league last year, and really only got to where they were because of an a PDO that was ninth-highest in the league.

And to be fair, they had a number of key players miss a pretty good amount of time. Jared Spurgeon only played 61 games. Zach Parise just 47. Nino Niederreiter checked in at only 63. Those are all very useful players and if they’re missing a quarter or close to half of a season, your on-ice results are going to suffer, especially if they miss a bunch of games at the same time.

But at the same time, Eric Staal scored 42 goals and 76 points. Jason Zucker cleared 30 in both goals and assists. Mikael Granlund had 67 points. Ryan Suter and Matt Dumba both hit 50 points from the blue line. Devan Dubnyk was once again top-notch at .918 in 60 appearances.

The problem for the Wild, then, is that the rest of the division seems to be improving, and it was pretty tightly packed around the middle of the Central to begin with. Nine points separated Minnesota from sixth-place Dallas, with Colorado and St. Louis between them. I would argue that all those teams improved this offseason, and Chicago should be (much) better if Corey Crawford is fully healthy, even if they’re not the Chicago of old.

Note that many of the Wild players I just listed as having enjoyed great seasons are, for the most part, outside their prime production years. Staal and Suter will turn 34 during next season. Spurgeon will turn 29. Dubnyk just turned 32. Other teams have aging producers as well, obviously, but these were some pretty outsized years from past-their-primes players, so it’ll be interesting to see what they can actually put together in 2018-19.

The real problem with the Wild, though, is the playoff format. The gap between Nashville/Winnipeg and the rest of that division is so significant in terms of on-paper quality (you can never guess when injury or quirky underperformance will rear their heads) that you’re better off finishing in the wild card spot in the division and taking your chances with the winner of the Pacific than finishing third and getting as brutally crumpled as the Wild did in the first round last year.

And with the new contract Matt Dumba signed over the weekend — five years with a $6 million AAV, the value of which I’ll get to in a minute here — this team is about $5.6 million south of the cap limit, and still have to re-sign Zucker, who has 111 points over the last two seasons. That scoring total ties him for 63rd in the league in that time, just ahead of Jordan Eberle and Sean Couturier, for instance, and likely means he’s going to be looking for a fat paycheck. That probably pushed Minnesota up around the absolute top of the league in terms of cap obligations.

(Also worth noting: There are few Bruce Boudreau stans in the hockey media bigger than me, but my man only has so much to work with, y’know?)

So this is a cap-limit team with a first-round-limit ceiling in the playoffs unless things go very heavily their way. This is, I guess, why the team brought in a new front office crew this summer; there’s a recognition that they’ve built a rather expensive team that probably reached its peak in terms of reasonable competition within the division, let alone the Western Conference or league writ large. And with so many of their top players (such as they are) on the wrong side of 30, one wonders how much longer this approach is going to be kept up.

Simply put, seventy-nine-point-something million dollars a year to get bounced in the early rounds of the playoffs again isn’t and shouldn’t be viewed as a tenable situation, but as I wrote repeatedly like four or five years, simply paying a lot of money to players who are above-average but certainly not stars in the league doesn’t make them worth their contracts. The Parise and Suter contracts don’t expire for seven more seasons and it’s a hell of a lot of money to spend on two guys whose impact on the ice is going to diminish.

The good news is there aren’t too many long-term commitments otherwise — Dumba and Niedereitter, both of whom are under 26, are the only other guys signed for more than the next three seasons — and the team does have some promising, youngish players to supplement the old guard. That Dumba contract is probably a little too much in terms of AAV, but he has 35 goals over the last three seasons and you gotta pay for guys like that, I guess.

Only 12 defensemen in the salary cap era besides Dumba have cleared 50 points in a season before the age of 24, so what are you gonna do? The term is fine, for sure, but Dumba doesn’t really move the needle in terms of underlying numbers; he’s still improving given his age, but paying a lot for that particular player seems more optimistic than rational. Because of those 13 defensemen, only eight repeated their 50-performances at least once before turning 28.

Nice to have young players who can make an impact, certainly, but the Wild fall into that classic trap of having a number of goodish, cheapish young guys and goodish, expensive old guys and very little in between, which doesn’t allow for a continuity of quality over years.

And with this team in particular, what even is that quality, really? Can you really afford to run out the clock with all these early-to-mid-20s and mid-30s players over the next three years if this is where you’re gonna get?

While anyone can get on a hot run and make a deep playoff push, the Wild don’t really have a realistic chance to do that unless they land outside their own division for the playoffs. Which is theoretically possible, but in actual practice you shouldn’t want to hope you finish seventh or eighth in the West to get a viable path to the Conference Final, where you’re likely to get clubbed anyway.

So the Wild, again, seem to be at a crossroads with the direction of their franchise, but none of their paths forward seem particularly favorable.

What We Learned

Anaheim Ducks: They’re officially bringing back, well, a version of the original Mighty Ducks jersey, which should just be their actual jersey anyway. This one kinda stinks but what are you gonna do?

Arizona Coyotes: God if the Coyotes are worth $500 million, what’s Vegas worth now, a year after paying that same amount of money to be a team?

Boston Bruins: The cool thing about if the Bruins got Artemi Panarin? He would be the second-best left wing on the team.

Buffalo Sabres: Casey Mittelstadt looks like he could soon be a difference-maker at the NHL level, which is probably a little ahead of schedule to be honest.

Calgary Flames: The Flames love putting useful young depth players on waivers for no reason, but at least they didn’t lose Brett Kulak for nothing like they did Paul Byron.

Carolina Hurricanes: I would not recommend making a 19-year-old rookie your No. 1 center, no.

Chicago: Jonathan Toews wants a big bounce-back season for himself and his team. I want a million dollars. Nice to want things.

Colorado Avalanche: The Avs are probably going to avoid arbitration with Patrik Nemeth and that’s the only guy they need to re-sign at this point.

Columbus Blue Jackets: *Craig Finn voice* Don’t let Oliver Bjorkstrand explode!!!!

Dallas Stars: You can say what you want about the Stars but there really aren’t that many bad contracts on the books.

Detroit Red Wings: Wow the Red Wings might actually play talented kids instead of mediocre 29-year-olds in important situations. Signs and wonders.

Edmonton Oilers: Put Joe Gambardella in the NHL. Yes. Do it. Think about where he went to college and don’t be a coward!!!

Florida Panthers: Vinnie Viola is selling his mansion in New Jersey and I’m buying it.

Los Angeles Kings: A great mid-July pastime is to look at NHL signings and guess what percentage of them are AHL-quality goons. Here’s one now.

Minnesota Wild: The Wild have a new AHL head coach and it seems like when you’re hiring guys out of the Penguins coaching system you’re making a good decision.

Montreal Canadiens: This is brutal.

Nashville Predators: Yes. Thanks for asking.

New Jersey Devils: Only roster eight defensemen if you’re gonna play seven every night. Which, by the way, you should do that.

New York Islanders: Frankly, gang, I don’t know that they have much of a choice in the whole “should we tank?” discussion.

New York Rangers: When the richest and biggest-name teams in the league are openly saying they’re “rebuilding” that should be a good indication that it’s a perfectly okay thing for every team to do when needed.

Ottawa Senators: This is going really great.

Philadelphia Flyers: Man, that Forsberg-to-Nashville trade effectively got the Flyers Scottie Upshall, Ryan Parent, Scott Hartnell, and Kimmo Timonen plus a third-round pick? Good lord!

Pittsburgh Penguins: Okay, sure, Derek Grant. That’s someone.

San Jose Sharks: Chris Tierney? That’s even more someone.

St. Louis Blues: This is a take where I go, “Ahhhh, maybe?” Which kinda defeats the purpose of the take.

Tampa Bay Lightning: Really feels like everyone in Tampa is just sitting around going, “Well jeez hey when’s this Karlsson thing happening? Soon? Soon. Gotta be soon.”

Toronto Maple Leafs: Andreas Johnsson‘s one of those guys where it’s like, “Yeah he’s probably a real player.” He went point-a-game in his second AHL season and 1.5 a game in the playoffs. Granted, that’s on a stacked team, but he’s 23 and a guy who can score like that is probably a good bottom-six option at an absolute minimum.

Vancouver Canucks: I would not want to be in the business of extending Alex Edler, despite his long-term status with the org.

Vegas Golden Knights: It’s really too bad the Golden Knights didn’t have to change their name. That would have been so funny.

Washington Capitals: Yeah, no.

Winnipeg Jets: I’m gonna write more about Trouba this week but: yikes.

Gold Star Award

Maybe this makes me a kook in hockey circles but every NHL team should have as many jerseys as they want. Who cares as long as they’re cool or weird or whatever? I don’t like the Ducks’ new “classic-inspired” thirds but at least they’re trying something. More throwbacks would be a good thing.

Minus of the Weekend

This is some kinda take.

Perfect HFBoards Trade Proposal of the Week

User “Kshahdoo” loves this time of year.

STL gets Panarin (but only with extention) Toronto gets Parayko Columbus gets Nylander

Signoff

Help! Help!

Ryan Lambert is a Puck Daddy columnist. His email is here and his Twitter is here.

(All stats via Corsica unless otherwise noted.)

[flauntpage]

DGB Grab Bag: Free Agency, Contract Announcements, and Draft Busts

Welcome to Sean McIndoe's weekly grab bag, where he writes on a variety of NHL topics. You can follow him on Twitter. Check out the Biscuits podcast with Sean and Dave Lozo as they discuss the events of the week.

Three stars of comedy

The third star: Justin Williams' hair. The winger's legendary salad was in fine form when it came time to sign with the Hurricanes, as former teammate Mike Commodore made sure to point out.

The second star: Jaromir Jagr. I'm still not quite sure what to make of Jagr's social media presence. People seem to like it, even if it sometimes has that whole "Grandpa doesn't totally get the internet, but we're just impressed he figured how to log on" vibe. But this was funny. I think. I'm honestly not sure.

The first star: The Benn brothers. With the Habs and the Stars reportedly going down to wire on bidding for Alexander Radulov, Jamie and Jordie decided to settle things the Canadian way.

Even better, the joke eventually turned into an official announcement of Radulov's signing.

Outrage of the week

The issue: Somebody signed an unrestricted free agent. The outrage: The contract seems kind of terrible. Is it justified: Probably, since almost every UFA deal ends up being a huge mistake. But since we've now made it through the first week of the open market, let's take this opportunity to do a quick summary of some of the major moves. (As always with this sort of thing, "good" and "bad" are from the perspective of the team and not the players, because in the end we all turn our backs on the noble working class.)

The Good

This is always the shorter list this time of year, but there were some decent signings to be found.

Kevin Shattenkirk. The Rangers get a bargain and kept the term short enough that there's minimal risk. Shattenkirk gets to play for his hometown team and could still have time for one more nice contract four years down the road. Hard to argue with any of it.

Justin Williams. He got good money, but nothing crazy. And while you can make your jokes about Mr. Game Seven choosing a team that hasn't been to the playoffs in eight years, you'd better get them in now—the Hurricanes are going to be good soon.

Pretty much everyone who signed for less than $1.5 million. Hell, lump in Brian Elliott and Ryan Miller, too. These guys are the bargains, and almost always represent low-risk signings. This year, it was interesting to see so many get done right out of the gate rather than waiting a few weeks for desperation to kick in.

The Bad

In the interest of time, we'll limit this section to five names. It could be a lot more.

Karl Azner. This is the annual "not as bad as everyone thought it was going to be, but still bad" contract. Or, as I like to call it, the Matt Beleskey Memorial Award.

T.J. Oshie. The cap hit isn't disastrous, but going to maximum eight years might be. The Capitals sure seem to have made a mess of their off-season, and already had to give away Marcus Johansson. Letting decent but aging wingers walk away for nothing is painful, but it's the sort of tough call a smart team has to be willing to make.

Patrick Marleau. Sure, the Leafs have a ton of cap space, so overpaying isn't the end of the world, but they have a two-year window before the cap gets crazy, and they just gave three years to a 37-year-old who plays the one position that's already a team strength. Even assuming they wiggle out of the deal after two years, it's still iffy. If they don't, it could be a disaster when they're a contender facing a cap crunch in 2019 and Marleau is a $6 million 40-year-old coming off a 12-goal season.

Nick Bonino. The good news is that this year's Dave Bolland cost less than the actual Dave Bolland. So… progress?

Dan Girardi. Steve Yzerman burns an entire season trading away useful players while missing the playoffs by one point, all in the name of creating cap room which he then uses on… Dan Girardi. I mean, I know I've spent the last year completely alone on the "maybe Yzerman is merely a good GM and not the all-knowing Jedi we all agreed he was" bandwagon, but I can make room if anyone wants on board.

The Contrarian Hot Take

The one team everyone else is ripping that I'll kind of, sort of defend.

Dmitry Kulikov and Steve Mason. Both are coming off bad seasons and might, in fact, be bad players. And both got over $4 million a season on multi-year deals. But here's the thing: They got them from Winnipeg. Nobody wants to go to Winnipeg. So if the Jets are going to sign free agents, it's going to cost too much money. Call it the Winnipeg Tax.

I'm always piling on the Jets because their GM never makes trades and their owner never fires anyone, and they just seem happy to repeatedly miss the playoffs by ten points while mumbling about the future. I can't exactly turn around now and burn them for at least trying to get a little better. Ideally, they'd be a franchise that uses all the tools in the toolbox, but until that day comes, paying too much for so-so free agents is marginally better than nothing.

Obscure former player of the week

Now that July has arrived, restricted free agents can sign offer sheets. They won't, because this is the NHL and all that talk about doing everything possible to win is for players laying their bodies on the line, not GMs who don't want to mess up their golf schedule by making a colleague angry. But in theory, it could happen.

There's a reasonably long history of NHL offer sheets, most of which were matched. Not many of those players would be considered obscure. After all, why target another team's player if they're not already an established star? You wouldn't… unless you were a vengeful Harry Sinden, which leads us to this week's obscure player: winger Dave Thomlinson.

Thomlinson has two claims to fame: not being Dave Tomlinson (that was another early 90s forward), and being the most obscure RFA offer sheet signing in NHL history.

He was a third-round pick by the Maple Leafs in 1985, a draft that most Toronto fans remember for other things. He never played for the Leafs, signed with the Blues in 1987, and finally made his NHL debut in St. Louis during the 1989-90 season. He played 19 games, scoring once, and followed that up with three games and zero points in 1990-91. He did manage three goals in that year's playoffs, but by the end of the season he was 24 years old and had never played close to a full season. All in all, not much to get excited about.

Then something weird happened. Ron Caron and the Blues went a little crazy targeting other teams' restricted free agents, signing Scott Stevens away from Washington in 1990 and Brendan Shanahan from New Jersey in 1991. In between, they went after Boston's Dave Christian. That didn't sit well with Sinden and the Bruins, who didn't even believe Christian qualified for free agency in the first place. Sinden retaliated by apparently signing any Blues RFAs he could find. That ended up being tough guy Glenn Featherstone, plus Thomlinson.

Under the old NHL system, the two teams were allowed to negotiate a compensation package, and they ended up just agreeing to swap Thomlinson, Featherstone, and draft picks for Christian. Thomlinson played 12 games for the Bruins before heading to the Rangers and later the Kings as a free agent. He ended up playing a total of 42 NHL games, scoring just that one regular-season goal.

Just think: The NHL is a league where nobody will offer sheet Leon Draisaitl, but somebody once went after Dave Thomlinson. Consider it further proof that everything was more fun in the 90s.

Be It Resolved

Connor McDavid signed his new contract this week, and it carried the highest full-season cap hit in NHL history. That's fine, because as we discussed last week, he's more than worth it. Besides, his deal came in at $12.5 million a season, which was slightly lower than the $13 million that had been rumored.

So sure, all of that was fine, but here's the problem: The Oilers just announced the deal with a boring old media event and press release. The Canadiens did the same for Carey Price, as did the Sharks with Marc-Edouard Vlasic.

Come on, guys. If you're going to be giving out eight- or nine-figure deals, then let's at least make the announcement interesting.

So be it resolved: From now on, NHL teams signing major extensions are only allowed to announce the length of the deal. Then, when it comes to the cap hit, they have to reveal it the way any important numerical value should always be revealed: by using the little mountain climber guy from Price Is Right.

Just imagine the Oilers having a press conference to announce that McDavid has signed for eight more years, then breaking out the Price Is Right mountain with "$0" at the bottom and "$15 million" at the very top. You're telling me you wouldn't be screaming at your TV once that yodeling started and you had to see how high the little dude with the pickax, lederhosen, and #97 Oilers jersey would get?

You could even have custom price ranges for different players. Jack Eichel's could go from $0 to $10 million. John Tavares could be $0 to $12 million. Dan Giradri's could go from $0 to "literally anything that isn't $0," and the little guy could go shooting off the edge like a skateboarder at the X Games.

Let's make this happen, NHL teams. There's still time before next summer's Austin Matthews contract.

Classic YouTube clip breakdown

In terms of cap hit, the biggest UFA signing so far has been Joe Thornton, who got an $8 million deal to return to the Sharks for one season. That's a big number, but it's fitting for a former first overall pick in the draft.

Of course, Thornton wasn't the only former top pick to hit the open market this week. Nail Yakupov was also available to the highest bidder, and that turned to be the Colorado Avalanche, who gave him, um, not quite $8 million. The Avs will be Yakupov's third team.

Yakupov's already widely considered one of the bigger draft busts in recent memory, so today let's travel back five years to the days leading up to the 2012 draft and see if we can piece together where it all went wrong.

It's June 20, 2012, and we're just 48 hours away from the first round of the draft. The NHL has decided to put together a few video packages on the top prospects to get you hyped up, including one for the presumptive No. 1 pick.

It goes without saying that the Oilers own the No. 1 overall pick thanks to a lottery win. This would be the third straight year they'd have it, which prompted the NHL to create a new rule to prevent lottery winners from winning the top pick again for a period of several years. The new rule was hailed as "completely fair" and "just common sense" and passed unanimously.

Sorry, none of that is true. I just wanted to try to retroactively make Connor McDavid happy for a few seconds.

Our clip starts with Yakupov doing that thing where he threateningly points his stick at you like he's Westley from the Princess Bride. Hockey video people love this pose so much. It's their favorite thing, slightly ahead of the "stick over the shoulders" pose, which we also get from Yakupov a few seconds later. Please note that neither of these poses ever actually happen in a hockey game. Do other sports do this? Do NFL draft picks have to pose like they're going to do a Karate Kid crane kick? I feel like this is just hockey.

"You want skill? Check. You want hands? Check. You want game-breaking offensive ability? Check." And after you're done checking, you will see that Nail Yakupov does not have any of those things.

Wait, is it possible the guy was actually saying "Czech"? Was he trying to tell the Oilers to pick Tomas Hertl instead? He knew! The narrator guy knew!

Next up we get the director of NHL Central Scouting, Dan Marr, who tells us that Yakupov is the sort of player who "just jumps at you." He then presumably adds, "You know, assuming 'you' are a defenseman on the other team trying to stop him from going to your net."

"I'm not like Bure, or someone like Ovechkin," says Yakupov. Wait, he knew, too! Why didn't the Oilers watch this clip before they made their pick? One two-minute video would have saved them millions of dollars. That's inexcusable. (Unless it had an unskippable 30-second ad at the front, because literally nobody has ever waited until the end of one of those.)

All kidding aside, Yakupov was really good in junior. When you're shattering Steven Stamkos records, you've got something. I make fun of him now, but five years ago I was 100 percent sure he was going to score 60 goals in the NHL. I'm still maybe 20 percent convinced it might happen, especially if can turn things around in Colorado and make it back to the NHL someday.

Next we meet Yakupov's friend and teammate, Alex Galchenyuk. He's introduced to us with a shot of him making the same face every Montreal fan makes now when they're told that the Habs might have to trade him because mumble mumble they have too much scoring?

"Like his Russian idol Pavel Bure, Nail is also a game-breaker." No, see, he just told us he wasn't like Bure. I thought you were cool, narrator guy.

We close with Yakupov telling us how much he loves to celebrate goals. That part, at least, turned out to be accurate. Remember when he got a little too excited against the Kings and all the old-school guys lost their minds? That was really Yakupov's first memorable NHL moment. Also, as it turns out, his only one.

"Sometimes it's crazy, and it's stupid." Man, he's not even an Oiler yet and he's already memorized the team's front-office slogan.

That ends our clip. If you'd like to live more of the Nail Yakupov experience, here's a clip of him being drafted first overall and being showered with can't-miss praise. And here's a far better one of him immediately afterward, as some poor rep from Upper Deck tries to get him to do some post-draft marketing that he has less than zero interest in. Seriously, I can't recommend that clip enough. I don't know what kind of day you're having at work, but I guarantee it's not "guy who has to get Nail Yakupov to look up and make eye contact long enough to open a pack of hockey cards" bad.

"When someone shows you who they are, believe them. When someone tells you they are not Pavel Bure or Alex Ovechkin, really really believe them." —Maya Angelou, failed NHL scout.

Have a question, suggestion, old YouTube clip, or anything else you'd like to see included in this column? Email Sean at nhlgrabbag@gmail.com.

DGB Grab Bag: Free Agency, Contract Announcements, and Draft Busts published first on http://ift.tt/2pLTmlv

[junker-town]

Did the Avalanche receive enough for Matt Duchene?

It’s quantity over quality, but Colorado still did well in trading its star center.

The Avalanche knew they had a good asset in Matt Duchene and didn’t want to waste it. General manager Joe Sakic spent over a year fielding offers for the star forward as a result, even though it meant having him come to training camp and open the season with the team in an occasionally awkward scene.

After all those months of rumors, speculation, and actual trade negotiations, the Avalanche finally pulled the trigger Sunday on a three-way deal with the Senators and Predators that sent Duchene to Ottawa and Kyle Turris to Nashville.

For Colorado, the trade resulted in a big package of seven different pieces, none of which was the big-name young defenseman Sakic had reportedly sought. But the team still got a lot of value in exchange for less than two years of Duchene’s career, and it’ll help push forward a rebuild that’s now firmly focused around Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen.

None of these players or picks will transform the Avalanche tomorrow. Duchene was in some ways a depreciating asset with his free agency looming in the summer of 2018. The team didn’t have that much longer to maximize what it could get before he’d be a one-year rental, but it still got six long-term assets in the package.

Here’s what the Avs received:

Defenseman prospect Samuel Girard, Nashville’s 2016 second-round pick Forward prospect Vladislav Kamenev, Nashville’s 2014 second-round pick Forward prospect Shane Bowers, Ottawa’s 2017 first-round pick Goaltender Andrew Hammond 2018 first-round pick from Ottawa 2018 second-round pick from Nashville 2018 third-round pick from Ottawa

Instead of adding any kind of elite talent, the Avalanche had to settle for a bit of quantity. Girard, Kamenev, and Bowers are all solid or better prospects, and three picks in the first three rounds gives Colorado three more chances to replenish its system. There’s no sure-thing impact player here, but it’s a lot of talent.

Let’s consider how rare it is for star forwards to be traded, and the difficulty to receive proper value in return is a big part of that. Here are some examples of deals from the past few years:

Taylor Hall for Adam Larsson

Eric Staal for Aleksi Saarela, two second-round picks

Ryan Johansen for Seth Jones

Artemi Panarin for Brandon Saad

Ryan O’Reilly for Nikita Zadorov, Mikhail Grigorenko, J.T. Compher, and a second-round pick

Milan Lucic for Martin Jones, first-round pick, Colin Miller

Jason Spezza for Alex Chiasson, Alex Guptil, Nick Paul, and a second-round pick

Looking at those returns, unless you had a young stud like Johansen or Panarin, you weren’t getting a young stud in return. The Oilers needed to give up Taylor Hall in order to add the solid young defenseman they coveted in Larsson. It’s fair to say that Hall, with all those extra years on his contract, was worth a lot more than Duchene at that point. The Avalanche clearly weren’t getting the young, star blue-liner they sought, otherwise they would have made that trade instead of this one.

Of course, there’s also not really a perfect comparison among those deals. Staal was a rental, Lucic is a winger, O’Reilly only had one year left on his deal, and other guys were younger or under contract longer. Spezza had demanded a trade from the Senators, and look what they got. At least compared to that instance, the Avalanche did much, much better.

No, that great young defenseman to build around hasn’t arrived, but Colorado still has a lot going for it. MacKinnon and Ratanen look like a potentially incredible one-two punch. Gabriel Landeskog and Tyson Barrie are still really good pieces. Girard, Kamenev, and Bowers join a prospect corps that includes Cale Makar, the No. 4 pick from the 2017 NHL Draft. For next year’s draft, the team will have six picks in the first three rounds, including two first-round picks.

The Avalanche weren’t going to win a Stanley Cup in the next year or so with Duchene, so they’re moving forward to the future without him. All things considered, it looks like Sakic’s patience worked out.

[thrashermaxey]

20 Fantasy Hockey Thoughts

Every Sunday, we'll share 20 Fantasy Thoughts from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week's "Daily Ramblings".

Writers: Michael Clifford, Ian Gooding, Cam Robinson, and Dobber

  1. Sens’ top prospect Drake Batherson made his debut on Thursday. He didn’t waste much time making an impact, scoring his first NHL goal – a power-play marker – on his first shot. Although he played just under 11 minutes in that first game – he also picked up two helpers against the Pens on Saturday – Batherson did play some even-strength and power-play minutes with the red-hot Matt Duchene. Batherson, who scored 20 points in 14 AHL games this season, is worth considering for keeper leagues if you can stash him away. (nov16)

  2. I wish I had an answer for you with regards to Cory Schneider. I do think he will turn it around and I believe that of all the struggling starters (Cam Talbot, Mike Smith, Matt Murray, Jake…well, maybe not Jake Allen). But the issue is timing. When will this turnaround happen? I think Schneider, due to all the time missed, will be last. So…January? The others I’d keep on the bench until December and I think you’ll see signs of life from them. These guys get paid to be the starter and the organization doesn’t want to be embarrassed. So, as you saw last year with Scott Darling, the paid starting goalie will keep getting starts and getting every chance he can to play his way out of the funk. We’ve seen Smith and Talbot in these kinds of funks in the past and they did play their way out of it. (nov12)

  3. It’s fair to say that the fantasy values of both Max Domi and Jonathan Drouin have increased since the start of the season. With the power-play game winner and an assist on Saturday, Drouin now has his own five-game point streak, and he also has nine points (4g-5a) over his last seven games. Maybe the Domi-for-Alex Galchenyuk and Drouin-for-Mikhail Sergachev trades aren’t looking so bad for Montreal now? (nov18)

As for him, Domi now has a nine-game point streak and points in 15 of his last 16 games. Is this sustainable? Should you sell high? How does Domi compare rest of season to another player who isn’t as red-hot but is still off to a good start? Find out in this past week’s Cage Match. (nov14)

  4. Mike Smith has been guilty of allowing numerous brutal and untimely goals this season. You should not be starting Smith right now. How bad are his numbers? Well, among 51 goalies that had played at least six games going into Saturday action, Smith was 50th with a .876 SV% (only Calvin Pickard’s save percentage was worse). Smith’s 3.48 GAA was a little better (relatively speaking) at 43rd, but you get the idea. There’s a strong possibility that this is an age-related decline, as Smith is now 36 years of age.

Meanwhile, David Rittich’s 1.92 GAA is second (only Pekka Rinne is better), while his .933 SV% is fourth. I’m not sure if Rittich is the long-term answer in net for the Flames, but he’s at least worth a go while he’s hot.

If a player has been out-of-his-mind impressive/poor for much of a season, it’s worthwhile to go back to last season to find out whether the run of good/bad play extends further. Dating back to February 1 of last season, Smith has a ghastly 3.54 GAA and .876 SV% in 29 games. So, he’s been downright terrible for the equivalent of half a season. Never mind benching him – I would consider dropping him outright if I owned him. Smith is owned in 65 percent of Yahoo leagues, while Rittich is only owned in 29 percent. (nov17)

  5. Well, Pens’ Matt Murray’s save percentage is practically the same as Smith’s (mentioned above), and his goals-against average is even worse (4.08 to 3.48). I wouldn’t be doing you a service if I told you to keep throwing Murray out there and hoping for the best. He needs to be moved to your bench immediately if he’s still starting because he’s bleeding goals. Not dropped outright, as I wouldn’t expect the two-time Stanley Cup champion, still only 24, to crash and burn completely. But I’d expect to see more of Casey DeSmith in the near term while Murray attempts to sort things out. (nov18)

  6. Good question from a commenter in my last Ramblings: “How concerned should we be with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins with the Edmonton line moves? He had been playing so well and still has PP1, but should we consider selling high?”

With Connor McDavid being reunited with Leon Draisaitl earlier this week, RNH’s fantasy hockey value took a hit, as he lined up with Tobias Rieder and Alex Chiasson. I’ll start by giving one reason that you should consider selling high, and another reason that you might not want to.

The reason you SHOULD: the Nuge has never recorded more than 56 points in a season. He might be on his way to a career season, but we already have enough of a sample size to know that he is not an 80-point player. If you can exchange him for someone with a higher ceiling than 50-60 points, then it might be worth it for you. Particularly in a multicategory league, where his peripherals aren’t overly strong.

The reason you SHOULDN’T: Line combinations change all the time. A team like the Oilers might be better off with McDavid and Draisaitl on separate lines to spread out the scoring, which could move RNH back to the McDavid line. I’ll throw in one more reason you shouldn’t: Nugent-Hopkins has just four goals on a 6.8 SH%, a number below his career average of 11.3%. A regression might not be significant, particularly if he is reunited with McDavid.

So, my advice is that it wouldn’t hurt to try, particularly if you use it to improve your team in other areas. But if you can’t make the deal, he should be able to hold much of his value going forward. (nov16)

  7. The big news from Wednesday was the trade of winger Carl Hagelin from Pittsburgh to Los Angeles in exchange for winger Tanner Pearson. At the time of the trade, those two players had combined for one (1) goal this year between them. The former is a UFA after this season, while the latter has two more years with an AAV of $3.75-million.

What I will say is this: from 2015-16 through 2017-18, Pearson scored 0.78 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five. Among wingers, that tied him with Taylor Hall, and placed him slightly ahead of Mike Hoffman and Jaden Schwartz, both at 0.76. It’s easy to look at his poor start this season and write him off but this is a guy with a proven track record of being able to score well in the minutes allotted to him. He won’t see the top PP unit unless there are a handful of injuries, and if there are a handful of injuries, those top PP minutes might not be worth anything. Pearson will be a better real-life contributor than a fantasy one.

There’s no fantasy relevance for Hagelin. Don’t do it. Just don’t. (nov15)

  8. Elias Lindholm now has 21 points in 20 games. James Neal has four points in 19 games and has been held without a point in his previous six games. What a difference playing on the Flames’ top line makes. Imagine if Neal and not Lindholm had been placed there. I don’t think there’d be a complete reversal, but I think the numbers would be a lot different. Neal is droppable in many formats if you haven’t done so by now. I don’t see Neal getting on the top line anytime soon because the Flames’ problems have nothing to do with the top line. (nov18)

  9. Rejoice, Erik Karlsson owners. The namesake of the podcast that appears here once a week finally scored his first goal of the season in his 21st game and added an assist in the Sharks’ 4-0 win on Saturday. I heard one of the hockey analysts on one of the Canadian major sports networks say that Karlsson hasn’t looked the same since being traded to San Jose. He cited the power play as an example, where both he and Brent Burns are right-handed shots and are often deferring to the other when playing together, which helps neither player nor the Sharks’ power play as a whole. The Sharks’ power play is middle of the pack with a 19.4 percent success rate, although you might think that it should be a lot better if both Karlsson and Burns are manning the point.

Well, it appears as though the Sharks have opted to use just one blueliner at times on the first-unit power play, particularly over the past three games. That chosen blueliner happens to be Karlsson for the moment.

If I’m a Burns owner, I’m not that worried (at least not yet). Burns already has nearly twice as many points (22) as Karlsson (12), so I think this is a strategy that coach Peter DeBoer is using to kickstart Karlsson. So far it is working, as Karlsson has five points over his last three games. Burns, meanwhile, hasn’t scored a goal in nine games, even though he is firing the puck at what seems like at least his normal pace (30 SOG over his last 6 GP). (nov18)

  10. Matt Duchene is an every-day, every-week fantasy starter at this point (I’ve learned that the hard way). And never mind all the turmoil coming out of Ottawa – what matters are the numbers that you see on your team page. With two goals and an assist on Saturday, Duchene now has 12 points (4g-8a) over his last six games, including three games with three points each. Yes, his shooting percentage (17.8 percent) indicates a bit of a regression may be coming, but his point total is already assist-heavy, which you can certainly benefit from as long as goals aren’t worth a ton more than assists in your league. (nov18)

  11. Mark Stone has 15 points (5g-10a) over his last nine games. Both Duchene and Stone are now at over a point per game for the season. What’s more interesting, of course, is what the Sens will do with both eventually. The values for both of these potential UFA have certainly increased since the start of the season and they could be too expensive for the Sens to keep, even if they wanted to sign them. (nov18)

  12. Ducks’ Maxime Comtois was sent to the AHL on a conditioning stint. When he’s back, I would love to see him play with Jakob Silfverberg again, rather than have Ryan Kesler on that line. Sure, Kesler and Silfverberg have enjoyed a lot of historical success together but when Comtois played with Silfverberg, the latter was off to a career-best start and I’d like to see them pick back up on that. (nov12)

  13. Reilly Smith in Vegas has just two points in his last 12 games. I’ve often said that he makes a splash in his first year with his new team and then tends to tail off in years two and three, but this is ridiculous. The tailspin is generally not quite so drastic. Just seven points on the season so far (20 games) but I think he’ll turn things around at least a little. I projected 57 points in the Fantasy Guide, and I would adjust that to something closer to 50. He had 60 in 67 games last year. (nov12)

  14. Jaroslav Halak thrives on action. Historically, he does very well with a heavy workload, which he was getting while Tuukka Rask was on personal leave. However, also historically, Halak gets injured a few games into the heavy workload. You could almost set your watch to it. Be forewarned: just when you think he seizes the starting goalie job, he goes down for two weeks. (nov12)

Btw: Halak’s Bruins’ teammate, Brad Marchand, is now your penalty minutes leader with 66, a full 24 ahead of the next-highest player. Needless to say, I’m kicking some serious butt in the PIM category in one of my head-to-head leagues, since I own both Marchand and Tom Wilson. Unfortunately, I can’t say the same for most of the rest of my other categories this week. (nov17)

  15. Bolts’ Louis Domingue is an obvious pickup with the injury to Andrei Vasilevskiy and he immediately rewarded fantasy owners, who were able to insert him into their lineups right away with wins over Pittsburgh on Thursday and against Philadelphia on Saturday (although he gave up five goals in that one). Allowing eight goals in two games isn’t ideal, but he’s a great option if you need wins. The goalies that I had in mind to ‘drop’ (at least on two of my teams) were Chad Johnson and Darcy Kuemper. So, I’m not setting the bar super high here. However, I was beaten to the punch in both instances, in one case by only half an hour. (nov16)

  16. If there’s one thing Chicago desperately needed in order to keep their Cup window open, it was a couple young defensemen emerging as not only NHL players but impact NHL players. Rookie Henri Jokiharju has certainly been that. But let’s temper our expectations for Jokiharju, at least for this season.

Let’s be clear here: we’re talking about a roughly quarter-season sample for a 19-year old defenseman. There is absolutely nothing definitive one way or the other about his future. What I am saying is that there are some good signs for him to reach his potential but there is still work to be done. I am one of many, I’m sure, clamoring for him to be on the top power play unit but maybe it’s best to let Brent Seabrook have that mantle for now. It’s not to say Jokiharju can’t be fantasy-relevant, or that things might not change by February. It is to say that just penciling him in for 40 points might in 2018-19 might be a bit premature. (nov15)

  17. I’ve seen the name ‘Jordan Eberle’ and the word ‘drop’ used in the same sentence recently. I understand that fantasy owners often focus on what you have done for me lately, but I’ll have to say that I’m not sure that he’s droppable except in maybe the shallowest of leagues – he’s probably more of a move to the bench if he’s struggling. He’s a serviceable option that should continue to receive first-unit power-play minutes on the Isles, although 60 points is probably the most that you should expect. (nov14)

  18. Like it or not, Tom Wilson’s suspension was reduced to 14 games, making him eligible to return to the Capitals’ lineup last Tuesday. Without hesitation, I added him in one of my leagues, a league that counts penalty minutes as well as the standard offensive categories. He paid immediate dividends, scoring a goal with a plus-2, while accruing 7 PIM on a goaltender interference penalty on the goal (I thought goals were waived off on those plays) and a second-period fight with Marcus Foligno. Oh, and he played on the Caps’ top line with Alex Ovechkin and Evgeny Kuznetsov. So, his Tuesday debut went exactly how we drew it up.

If your league counts penalty minutes and/or hits, then Wilson needs to be picked up immediately if he’s still available. We can debate how much scoring that Wilson will actually provide, but we’re talking about a player who finished second in the league with 187 PIM and fourth with 250 hits and plays on his team’s top line. And he’s not going to be as much of a liability to fantasy teams scoring-wise as other typical players who stuff the physical categories. (nov14)

Washington was 8-6-3 during Wilson’s suspension. The team lacks depth and his return makes a bigger impact than you would expect. In his absence, not one winger had even remotely established himself in that first-line spot. (nov12)

  19. Aside from that fact that a demotion will serve Kailer Yamamoto and Jesse Puljujarvi well, I also think it will serve all the Edmonton prospects well. For the first time in ages, Edmonton is actually icing a pretty awesome farm team. Ethan Bear had been out since October 13 with an injury but is now back, Caleb Jones is having a great start to his season, while Cameron Hebig (undrafted free agent signee) has 12 points in 13 games as a rookie. Other rookie-pros Tyler Benson and Cooper Marody are both up over a point per game. Now, the team adds Puljujarvi and Yamamoto, giving them two solid lines and an elite AHL PP unit. I think that bodes well for everyone’s confidence when it comes to putting pucks in the net and I think that will translate to the NHL a little better too. (nov12)

  20. Zach Parise now has 17 points in 19 games. Are the Wild getting another resurgent veteran? Parise missed 40 games last year, 13 the year prior, and 12, eight and 15 in the years before that. It would seem that missing a dozen games is in the bag. But, if he is playing with a clean bill of health, perhaps the 70 games this year will be productive ones. (nov12)

  Have a good week, folks!!

    from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-home/20-fantasy-hockey-thoughts/20-fantasy-hockey-thoughts-50/

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Ramblings: Healthy Scratches, Hot Goalies (Oct 17)

Healthy Scratches, Hot Goalies, plus more…

First, a quick thought about the Mike Matheson two-game suspension: I never thought I’d write this, but the NHL issuing a suspension here is a step in the right direction. Comparing apples to oranges as well as a very small sample size, the NHL generally seems to be tougher on suspensions this season – case in point the Tom Wilson 20-game suspension. In the past I know this would have gotten completely ignored and shrugged off as “part of the game,” but this matters when you consider the careers of star players cut short by head injuries (Lindros, Kariya, Lafontaine, etc.) and what we now know about head injuries. There have been a ton of takes about the hit and the Canucks’ (lack of) response afterward, so I won’t dive into this one any further.

So who took over Elias Pettersson’s spot on the first-unit power play on Tuesday? No one! The Canucks didn’t receive a single power play against Pittsburgh. In fact, there was only one penalty in the entire game.

But there was something happening with goaltending in this game, specifically Canucks’ goaltending. In case you haven’t noticed, Anders Nilsson started his third consecutive game. He also earned his third consecutive win, posting a 1.67 GAA and .943 SV% over that span. Yes, I’m as surprised as you are. And yes, I’d expect him to start the Canucks’ next game Thursday in Winnipeg, which will be a tall order for the 6’6” goalie. But if you need to ride a hot hand in net, he’s worth a gamble. Remember that after last season, he backstopped Sweden to a World Hockey Championship. So there’s that.

The more long-term question is whether Nilsson will unseat Jacob Markstrom as the de facto number one in Van City. I’d say that Nilsson would need more consistency than we’re used to with him before I would proclaim that he will be the guy two months from now. He could also easily force a timeshare with Markstrom, which might be the more likely scenario here. The Canucks are playing well right now, but their defense is the envy of no team. So over an entire season, I still wouldn’t consider either Nilsson or Markstrom to be a must-own.

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You may have heard of this by now since it was Monday’s news, but Brandon Saad could be a healthy scratch for Thursday’s game. As Mike Clifford mentioned, Saad has scored just 12 goals in his last 76 games last season, and he has not scored a goal in five games this season. Saad was demoted to the fourth line on Saturday alongside Marcus Kruger and David Kampf – not exactly Jonathan Toews or Patrick Kane. Think the Hawks would like to have a do-over on that Artemi Panarin trade?

I mentioned that you should probably hold Kevin Shattenkirk in spite of his healthy scratch last week because of his 50+ point upside on the blueline, but I’m not going to tell you to do the same with Saad. Unless you play in a very deep league, Saad is most likely replaceable given the number of available forward scoring options. Saad could very well become fantasy relevant again at some point, but it’s been a calendar year since he’s been able to produce at a 50-point pace.

Speaking of Rangers and healthy scratches, Pavel Buchnevich was a healthy scratch for Tuesday’s game against Colorado. Buchnevich is already in new coach David Quinn’s doghouse, playing just 11 minutes on the Rangers’ fourth line on Saturday.  

David Quinn answered a lot of questions about Pavel Buchnevich. The gist of it was they need more out of him consistently, he needs to be harder to play against, more willing to pay a price to score, and that skill alone isn’t enough.

— Dan Rosen (@drosennhl) October 16, 2018

If you own Buchnevich and are wondering whether to drop him, it appears that the scratch isn’t due to a lack of scoring (unlike Saad). Buchnevich had scored two goals and added an assist in his five games, which isn’t drop-worthy on its own. In fact, Buchnevich could rebound from this and become a more complete player who competes harder, assuming the coach’s message gets through. If you’re in a league where every game played matters and there’s an equal or better option, then make the move. Otherwise, I’d be fine with holding here.

On a side note, if you’re a Shattenkirk and/or Buchnevich owner, you’ll know by now that David Quinn doesn’t care about your fantasy team. I say that facetiously, though. Sarcasm doesn’t translate well over the internet sometimes.

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Tampa Bay has a very favorable schedule with three games still remaining this week (vs. DET, @MIN, @CHI), so there’s still plenty left to gain this week with a Tyler Johnson pickup. In Tuesday’s game against the Canes, Johnson scored three goals with a plus-2 and six shots on goal. Reuniting Johnson with old Triplets linemates Nikita Kucherov and Ondrej Palat has proven favorable. In fact, part of me wishes they had never been split up. With his hat trick, Johnson now has five points in his last two games. And he’s owned in only 30 percent of Yahoo leagues.

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Let’s just rename them the Edmonton McDavids. Connor McDavid scored two goals and added two assists in the Oilers’ 5-4 come-from-behind victory over the Jets. In case you missed it, McDavid recorded points on all of the Oilers’ first nine goals of the season before the string was snapped with Darnell Nurse’s overtime goal. Obviously McDavid should be in your lineup every time he plays, but his magic has started to rub off on linemates Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (3 A on Tuesday) and Ty Rattie (1 G and 5 SOG on Tuesday).

In that same game, Nikolaj Ehlers finally recorded his first point of the season (an assist). In a head-scratcher of a move, someone in one of my leagues (and a fairly deep one at that) decided to drop Ehlers. I decided to use a waiver claim on him (I was 5th), but lost out to someone with higher priority. Moral of story: It’s way too early for something like this to be happening. Ehlers has scored 25 goals and 60 points in back-to-back seasons, and he’s on a line with Patrik Laine. Some fantasy owners place more emphasis than they should on the first few games of the season, so this might be a great time to attempt to buy low.

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The Devils remain undefeated, thanks to two red hot players:

Kyle Palmieri scored again, giving him seven goals on the season, which is tied for second in the NHL. He’s actually cooled off, as this is the first game in which he did not score two goals. He will of course cool off. But he’s playing on the Devils’ top line, so it’s safe to say that he should be owned in just about every league format at this point.

Keith Kinkaid stopped all 24 shots he faced in earning the shutout over Dallas – his second shutout of the season. Even though Cory Schneider is still recovering from a hip injury, has Kinkaid earned the starting job for good? Even though Schneider has the larger paycheque with the longer term, this job could be Kinkaid’s to lose even when Schneider returns. Either way, Kinkaid is the perfect third goalie to own right now.

Even though the Stars were shutout by the Devils, Jamie Benn still recorded 7 PIM for his owners that count that stat. Included was this fight with Miles Wood.

{youtube}qAkUDbMuEqg{/youtube}

I’ll say this about Benn: He’s a GREAT fighter. I saw Benn in a fight with 6’7” Nikita Tryamkin in a live game a couple of seasons ago. He definitely held his own with the tall Russian.

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Although Semyon Varlamov hasn’t earned wins over his last two starts, he’s exceeded my expectations over his first five games. Over each of his five starts (the first three being wins), he hasn’t posted a save percentage lower than .927. Meanwhile, Philipp Grubauer allowed four goals in his only start. It’s early and the goaltending duties could still shift more toward the upstart Grubauer as the season wears on. But Varlamov is showing no signs of letting up, keeping in the Avalanche in games where they have allowed 40 shots or more. After a shaky preseason, Varly is proving that there’s still something left as he plays for a starting job somewhere next season.

While on the Avs, I should mention that Nathan MacKinnon scored again, giving him goals in each of his first five games. He’s simply continuing where he left off last season.

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It took him six games, but William Karlsson scored his first goal of the season on Tuesday. His shooting accuracy (9 percent) is still way down from his 23 percent from last season, so the scoring pace should pick up. Still, he’s going to have a very, very tough time repeating last season’s 43 goals. To his credit, Karlsson already has six assists, so maybe we see more of a playmaking version of Wild Bill this season while linemate Jonathan Marchessault focuses more on goals.

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For more fantasy hockey information, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding.

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-rambling/ramblings-healthy-scratches-hot-goalies-oct-17/

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What We Learned: The Marc-Andre Fleury contract is inexplicable

There’s no doubting the importance Fleury has to the organization as a sort of goaltender-slash-spokesman, but it seems they put the latter title first in signing this contract. (Getty)

I have been trying to wrap my head around the deal Marc-Andre Fleury signed with Vegas since it was first announced.

There is not a universe in which it makes any kind of sense.

For one thing, the Golden Knights signed Fleury a year early, and coming off a career-best season in which he dragged an otherwise not-great team to a Cup Final. As a general rule, you don’t want to pay guys who get bad teams to places no one thought they could go the kind of money commensurate with reaching those levels.

It should be obvious to everyone on earth that Fleury is not as good as he was in the regular season or playoffs. This was a .927 season — the highest of his career by a decent margin — followed by a .927 playoff that was much, much more impressive before he totally melted down against Washington. That kind of outsized outlier performance screams “Beware,” but George McPhee refused to heed that call.

Instead, he shackled his club to a goalie that, while popular in the city and among his teammates, is signed until he’s well past 37 years old. At a $7 million AAV.

To be fair to both sides here, Fleury has almost inexplicably gone .920 over his last 200 regular-season games, and .920 goalies have to get paid, but they don’t have to get paid a year early when you’re only bidding against yourself, and they absolutely shouldn’t get paid through their age-37 seasons. The fact of the matter is that it’s quite likely Fleury turns back into something resembling his career average, which is right around the league average.

And to give a little more credit to both sides here, the money probably doesn’t matter that much because if Vegas hasn’t changed its plans for building slowly through the draft, trades and so on, then you gotta spend money on somebody, and the top line, plus Paul Stastny, plus Fleury seems like a perfectly fair place to do it.

There is, of course, no use arguing whether the money or term are good. Neither are. Everyone knows that. You can’t justify paying a career-average goaltender $7 million dollars for his age-35, 36, and 37 seasons. Full stop. Unless this guy is Dominik Hasek — and he of course is not — this is a nonsense signing.

Maybe people won’t notice so much if Fleury doesn’t perform well next season — or any of the three after that — because Vegas isn’t likely to keep having the kind of offensive success it did last year, but even if you’re getting better-than-average goaltending, it won’t be so much better that Vegas can reasonably sustain the success it had last year. They probably won’t come close.

That likelihood creates a lot of problems, not the least of which is that we don’t know what the fan support in Vegas looks like when the team isn’t any good. Not that they haven’t cultivated a solid base or anything here, and not that people don’t love Fleury in particular, but if this team finishes in the bottom-10 next year, the year after that, etc., will people keep showing up? Fleury was always going to be the poster boy of the franchise, regardless of how he did last season, so now just as everyone else seems to have increased their own internal expectations for how good this team can be going forward, this contract might do the same for Fleury.

Again, if he’s average, or worse, at some point in this contract, one wonders how the revelation that this was a bad contract is actually taken. People in this sport are willing to throw all but the absolute very best goalies under the bus, and this particular goalie now has an untradeable contract.

More to the point, though, the issue is that Vegas just put Fleury into a tie for the third-highest goalie cap hit in the league. He now trails only Carey Price and Henrik Lundqvist, and is dead even with Tuukka Rask. I don’t think anyone on earth would confuse Fleury’s career numbers with any of those three players, and Lundqvist, a guaranteed first-ballot Hall of Famer, the best goalie of his generation by a good distance, is the only one who signed in his mid-30s.

I guess the primary reason I don’t understand this contract is that it didn’t have to happen. Vegas wasn’t under any type of time crunch to sign him before a certain date (well, I guess technically July 1, 2019, but they had dozens of weeks) and seem to have wrung no type of hometown discount from getting out in front of this issue now. They bought as high as humanly possible on a goalie who, unlike another recent goalie signing in Connor Hellebuyck, isn’t likely to maintain even previous levels of performance. Everything after 34 or 35 is a total guessing game. Guys can go from great to bad in a single offseason. And put simply, they often do.

So it’s difficult to say what Vegas was doing here, except making a PR signing now, on an otherwise quiet day for the league. There’s no doubting the importance Fleury has to the organization as a sort of goaltender-slash-spokesman, but it seems they put the latter title first in signing this contract.

What We Learned

Anaheim Ducks: Why would you turn to Adam Henrique to spark your offense? He’s perfectly good but 50 points seems like his absolute ceiling.

Arizona Coyotes: The Coyotes faced what could fairly be considered “undue backlash” for that Hossa trade. Like, I get it because they trade for dead money a lot but they got a good player out of it and it doesn’t really matter. Stop bailing out Chicago, sure, but whatever.

Boston Bruins: The idea that the Bruins would shake up the defense, perhaps by trading Torey Krug, does not seem well-considered.

Buffalo Sabres: Gotta keep locking in those 2015 BU Terriers.

Calgary Flames: I easily can see the Flames being a very bottom-of-the-barrel playoff team next season, for sure. Not quite certain where that actually gets them, but they could do it in that division. For the record, I can also see them missing by a dozen points.

Carolina Hurricanes: Yeah when you put it this way: Adding de Haan and Hamilton to your blue line is a pretty good upgrade for just about anyone in the league.

Chicago: I really hope Corey Crawford is over all his health issues but man, imagine what happens to this team if he isn’t. Yikes.

Colorado Avalanche: Speaking of which, Grubauer being a 1b in Colorado seems pretty good but also who really knows?

Columbus Blue Jackets: That’s some nice value for Oliver Bjorkstrand. He seems like he could turn into a very useful forward.

Dallas Stars: Yeah, sure, the Stars should trade for literally everyone. Why not.

Detroit Red Wings: Really wonder how much more room Anthony Mantha has to grow here. Another 24-goal season would be a nice resume-builder.

Edmonton Oilers: Well, “impressive” is one word for it.

Florida Panthers: We’re at the “I’m writing about AHL depth signings” part of the summer already? Good lord.

Los Angeles Kings: This headline is the reason the phrase “don’t put the cart before the horse” was invented.

Minnesota Wild: Yes they absolutely have hit their ceiling. Definitely.

Montreal Canadiens: The Habs keep signing first-round picks, which isn’t a bad idea because they tend to be talented players, but also: Ehhhh.

Nashville Predators: Haven’t seen much this summer to convince me shouldn’t be the Cup favorite again this year. Doesn’t mean they’ll win but this is a great team despite having no additions.

New Jersey Devils: Oh come on.

New York Islanders: Get ready for Barzal to have way too much expectation heaped on him in the next few years. Good luck kid.

New York Rangers: Imagine thinking there’s a “right” guy to be your enforcer who isn’t “nobody.”

Ottawa Senators: No, don’t do it Brady!!!

Philadelphia Flyers: Stop getting your hopes up about prospects based on rookie camp performances. Come on.

Pittsburgh Penguins: Giving Daniel Sprong a chance to actually play at the NHL level seems like a good idea. He was ridiculous in the AHL last year as a rookie.

San Jose Sharks: Jeez there are a lot of jokes to make here.

St. Louis Blues: Ah yes I have to agree: The Blues’ recent failures are definitely Vladimir Tarasenko’s fault.

Tampa Bay Lightning: Brian Bradley being on the Lightning’s Mount Rushmore is absolutely indefensible.

Toronto Maple Leafs: The Leafs keep making nice, cheap signings and that’s what you gotta do if you have a bunch of expensive elite players.

Vancouver Canucks: Hard to put yourself in the mindset of being a coach who has to run a mess of a team for the full 82 knowing you’re not coming into the playoffs.

Vegas Golden Knights: Important to get out in front of those high expectations now.

Washington Capitals: Totally have my popcorn ready for that Tom Wilson deal.

Winnipeg Jets: Mark Scheifele is great but he would never ever get anything resembling a John Tavares contract.

Gold Star Award

That Phil Danault contract is like a Magic Eye puzzle. You really have to not think about it to see the reason why it’s a value.

Minus of the Weekend

Rest in peace, Ray Emery. Truly awful news.

Perfect HFBoards Trade Proposal of the Week

User “Jokerz89” is an agent of chaos.

Something along the lines of Krug, Backes, Lauzon, Senyshyn, and a 1st for Nugent-Hopkins and Klefbom

Signoff

Well Seymour, you are an odd fellow, but I must say: You steam a good ham.

Ryan Lambert is a Puck Daddy columnist. His email is here and his Twitter is here.

(All stats via Corsica unless otherwise noted.)

[yahoo-puck-daddy-blog]

Trending Topics: Is Mark Scheifele a superstar? Depends on what you mean

One of the big and unexpected kerfuffles in this postseason was started, as kerfuffles so often are, by Pierre McGuire.

In Game 7 of the Nashville-Winnipeg series, Scheifele scored two goals to boost his playoff total to 11 in 12 games. Pretty good, but McGuire made the mistake of saying Scheifele was a relatively unknown star player in the league.

Based on the reaction, you’d have thought he said Scheifele isn’t the reason Alex Ovechkin’s line is any good. (Yes that’s a Tom Wilson joke but please don’t email or tweet at me about Tom Wilson.)

Far be it for me to defend Pierre McGuire, but what I think he was trying to say is that few people know about how unbelievably good Mark Scheifele is. Were it not for the huge amount of really good centers in the league today, Scheifele could very easily be one of the true elites at his position (we’re talking top-five instead of top-10) but also he’s only 25 so he probably still has a few more years of improvement ahead of him. This is a guy who has 142 points in his last 139 regular-season games, and entered last night’s Game 2 against Vegas with 12-6-18 in 13 games this spring.

But if you’re just an average NHL fan, how would you know that, other than to have watched him shred Minnesota, Nashville, and now Vegas?

I said it in the mailbag last week but people in and around this sport bristle at the idea that certain guys — specifically high-end players in smaller markets, or Canadian markets, or to combine the two, Winnipeg — are not “stars.” I’m not sure there’s a reasonable definition of what a “star” is that we can all agree with, right?

McGuire said he’s a known player that most fans might not know a lot about, because how known can he really be in the NHL given the way the league’s national TV deal in the U.S. is set up? The way NBC covers this league is, necessarily, a U.S.-centric approach, to the point that of the 99 nationally-televised games NBC produced — on NBCSN or NBC itself — Winnipeg was one of three teams that got literally none of its games aired. The other two? Oh hey look at that, Canadian markets Calgary and Vancouver.

And you can quibble with how smart it is for the league to only put 28 of its 31 teams on national TV in any given year, but this is something that isn’t going to change. Let’s put it this way: The Oilers, with the best and most entertaining player in the world, only had three national games this season — up from the previous year’s z-e-r-o — and that was at least the second year in a row the Jets weren’t on NBC at all.

The idea that this league would have the ability to put Connor McDavid, entering his second season, on national TV any non-zero number of times and just wouldn’t do it is, obviously, psychotic, but think about how these national games get apportioned.

Those darn Rangers and Penguins are hogging all the nationally televised games.

Nine teams were on national TV at least 10 times this season, and four of them were in the Metropolitan division; the Rangers, Flyers, Penguins, and Capitals all got on at least 14 times. Only two other teams in the league, Boston and Chicago, cleared that bar.

So the NHL has clearly landed on the way it will appeal to hockey fans, and that is “by appealing to fans in about a half-dozen media markets.” Not that I’m trying to tell the NHL and NBC how to market this product, but if the best players in the world who happen not to play in the Northeastern U.S. are only given the opportunity to play in front of a national audience at most two or three times a season, then I can’t imagine why anyone could ever take issue with what McGuire said.

In part because of how small the hockey community is, and in part because NBC wouldn’t put Winnipeg on national TV without someone kidnapping Liam McHugh and sending a ransom note to 30 Rock with letters cut out of a magazine, people have a tendency to have skewed perceptions. I, as a hockey writer who subscribes to Center Ice, of course know who Mark Scheifele is and I’ve probably seen him play about 15 times this season. (It didn’t help that he missed a quarter of the Jets’ games in the regular season.) He’s awesome and fun to watch. Great player.

But the question is: Is he instantly recognizable to any hockey fan turning on any random-ass Wednesday night game in January? No, because he’s not on any Wednesday night games. And if he wants to be next year (which he probably will because “making the conference finals” seems to be something that gets teams on national TV at least once) then he better start forming a rivalry with someone in the Metro sooner than later.

The point is, the number of actual “superstars” you see in this league is able to be counted on one hand. McDavid, yes. Crosby, yes. Ovechkin, yes. After that? Probably not that many, which is why we as hockey fans have to sit through that horrible Marty Brodeur commercial for the 700th season in a row; the league has so few marketable stars that a 40-something goalie who retired years ago is still one of its few recognizable faces. And even then, he has to say, “Hey remember me, I’m the Devils goalie from before!!!” in the commercial.

Now, to circle back to Pierre McGuire, the guy who started this whole thing, you can bet he watched a bunch of Winnipeg games this year. Maybe not as many as people in Canada (generally) or Winnipeg (specifically) but that becomes the other thing I was talking about last week, where there’s a point of diminishing returns on how much more you will know about a team than someone who sees them irregularly. Nevertheless, he can watch a Jets game here and there then look at the stats page on NHL.com and say to himself, “This Scheifele guy can play! Incredible.”

There’s nothing wrong with that. And it is, for better or worse (and by the way: worse), how the NHL has operated for years.

Mitigating factors here do not make Mark Scheifele a superstar. And if he wanted to be, he would have demanded a trade to the Rangers three years ago. And if that happened he’d be on national TV once a week, minimum, and you’d rather walk into traffic than hear one more word about Mark freaking Scheifele.

As with so many other things in the NHL, there’s no good answer to this because the NHL does everything in a way that’s only going to piss people off. But that’s especially true of diehard fans.

More NHL coverage on Yahoo Sports:

Ryan Lambert is a Puck Daddy columnist. His email is here and his Twitter is here.

All stats via Corsica unless otherwise noted.

[thrashermaxey]

Ramblings: Rinne Struggles Continue, Anti-Tanking In Fantasy Leagues (May 2)

Rinne’s Struggles Continue, Anti-Tanking In Fantasy Leagues

The whiteout in Winnipeg had no shortage of goals, with at least three goals in each period. It kind of reminded me of a World Junior game, which can be so exciting to watch because of the wild momentum swings. This series is really delivering in terms of excitement!

Nashville jumped out to a 3-0 lead in the first period, quieting the rabid Winnipeg crowd. Mike Fisher, P.K. Subban, and Austin Watson all struck for the Preds. In spite of the early struggles, the Jets stuck with Connor Hellebuyck anyway.

The first-period deficit seemed to serve as a wake-up call for the Jets in the second period, as they fired four pucks past Pekka Rinne. The Jets controlled the play particularly during this period, outshooting Nashville 16 to 6. Two of those goals came off the stick of Dustin Byfuglien, who later added an assist to give him a three-point game.

Filip Forsberg tied the game for the Preds in the third period, but Blake Wheeler put the Jets in the Game 3 driver’s seat for good with a power-play goal with five minutes to play. Wheeler also added an empty-net goal to give him a three-point game as well. Paul Stastny was another Jets’ player to earn three points with a goal and assist of his own.

If I’m a Nashville fan, then I’m worried about the play of Pekka Rinne. The odds-on favorite to win the Vezina Trophy, Rinne has allowed at least three goals in each of the three games against Winnipeg and four goals in two other playoff games. In particular he fell victim to two cross-ice pass goals in the second period, although the usually vaunted Nashville defense also looked very suspect on those goals.

Rinne’s playoff goals-against average now sits at 3.08 and save percentage at .901, both of which are league-worst numbers among starting goalies for the eight remaining teams. That’s strikingly similar to his split against the Jets during the regular season (4 GP, 3.52 GAA, .901 SV%). I know that the Preds have also been scoring on Hellebuyck both in the regular season and in this series. But as the series wears on, I don’t think that style of play favors the Predators against a squad as high-powered as Winnipeg’s. If Rinne can’t reduce the number of goals allowed, then the Preds’ season will fade into the night in this round. That won’t be easy.  

Just how much do the Predators rely on their big four on defense? Bottom pair Alexei Emelin and Matt Irwin were held to under ten minutes of icetime in Game 3. But it was a rough night overall for their defense as Roman Josi was a minus-3 and both P.K. Subban and Ryan Ellis were each a minus-2. And there was also this play, where one puck knocked over two Nashville defenders.

{youtube}ZSwD16yw9fM{/youtube}

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Alex Ovechkin scored the game-winning goal with just over a minute left in regulation to lead the Capitals to a 4-3 win over Pittsburgh. Ovie also added an assist on John Carlson’s first-period power-play goal. He’s in a four-way tie for the playoff goal-scoring lead (Jake Guentzel, Sidney Crosby, Mark Scheifele) with eight goals and has also scored goals in four consecutive games. Maybe Ovechkin’s teams have a history of coming up short in the playoffs, but he doesn’t. Over his playoff career, he has scored a goal every other game and about a point per game.

Speaking of which, do we consider the playoffs to be a success for the Capitals if they can simply get past the Penguins? Everything else might be gravy if they can just defeat that one team. I think Barry Trotz wouldn’t have to worry about his job if his team makes it to the final four.

Nicklas Backstrom recorded three assists to give him 12 points in nine playoff games. With 87 points in 105 career playoff games, Backstrom can’t really be blamed for the Caps’ playoff failures either.  

Per NHL PR:

Backstrom has now assisted on 20 of Ovechkin's 54 career playoff goals.

He's assisted on 230 of Ovechkin's 607 regular season goals.

— Tom Gulitti (@TomGulittiNHL) May 2, 2018

Tom Wilson recorded nine hits, including this one on Zach Aston-Reese. Is that a hit to the head worthy of a suspension? Some will say no, but it’s worth mentioning that Aston-Reese now has a broken jaw along with a concussion. I would think that’s it for Aston-Reese’s playoffs, unless he makes a fast recovery and the Penguins go the distance.

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As for the possibility of Wilson getting suspended?

Wilson is second in hits (41) during the playoffs, trailing only William Carrier of Vegas, who has 45 and has played two fewer playoff games. Carrier averaged 3.1 hits/game in half as many games compared to Wilson’s 3.2 during the regular season. Wilson, of course, is a must-own in leagues that count hits and/or penalty minutes, especially when you factor in his improved scoring totals.

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Does your fantasy keeper league use any anti-tanking measures? If so, what are they?

— Ian Gooding (@Ian_Gooding) May 1, 2018

I posted this question based on an email I received from one of my leaguemates earlier this week in a league where I am commissioner. His team was in last place for most of the season, yet he continued to diligently update his roster every week in spite of making transactions aimed at next season. Another owner had not updated his team in ages and managed to surpass this owner in the race to the bottom. As a result, he lost the opportunity to draft Rasmus Dahlin in a scoring system that awards extra points for defensemen. So this owner brought up the idea of having a draft lottery.

(By the way, there was no incentive for the other (absentee) owner to tank, as he had traded his draft pick during the last offseason.)

The draft lottery idea seemed to be a good one in theory, but I really had no idea how to conduct it. Fortunately I received more responses than I thought I would. Ideas included the top non-playoff team receiving the first pick instead of the bottom team, a mini-consolation round tournament where the winning team receives the pick, tying fantasy teams to actual teams in a draft lottery simulator, and picking ping-pong balls out of a bucket … or having a dog make the picks. Imagine if your ability to acquire a future franchise player came down to the unpredictability of the league commissioner’s dog. Woof.

Not surprisingly, the whole draft lottery idea has been debated in recent days. On one hand, the weakest teams should be given the opportunity to acquire franchise players – not teams that barely finish out of the playoffs – because the truly weak teams need the most help. But if teams like the Oilers still can’t get it right after multiple successful draft lotteries, how many more chances should they be given?

If you are opposed to the draft lottery and believe that the NHL should return to the system where worst picks first, you might want to watch this documentary from TSN. As goofy and random as the draft lottery can be, it serves a purpose. Judging by the responses to my question, it can serve a purpose in fantasy leagues too.

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Other news:

Like it or not, Sens fans, Guy Boucher is returning as coach, as is the rest of his coaching staff. He’s going into the final year of his contract, so I wonder if the team is working on an extension. Either that or he's on a very short leash to start the season. 

Here’s Mike Clifford’s Fantasy Take on the Oilers signing goalie Mikko Koskinen and how the signing might affect Cam Talbot.

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For more fantasy hockey information, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding.

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-rambling/ramblings-rinne-struggles-continue-anti-tanking-in-fantasy-leagues-may-2/

[thrashermaxey]

Ramblings: Playoffs Ahoy!; Kovalchuk Returning?; Monahan Injuries – April 10

One report early on Monday morning had Ilya Kovalchuk signing with the New York Rangers for anywhere around two or three years. He has expressly made his desire to return to the NHL previously known so it’s a matter of where he lands, not if he leaves the KHL.

A lot of people are going to project how many points they see Kovalchuk racking up and I just don’t know how to go about it. Here is a guy who left the NHL in his age-29 season and will be turning 35 at the end of this week. Since the 2013 lockout, only one player aged 35 or older has managed at least 70 points (Joe Thornton, 2015-16 with 82). The highest-scoring winger was Martin St. Louis with 69 in 2013-14. Keep in mind that St. Louis did that playing nearly 21 minutes a night. Wherever Kovalchuk signs, there’s no chance he plays 21 minutes a night.

We have to remember that over his final two seasons, Kovalchuk was playing over 24 minutes a game in order to be a point-per-game player. No team is going to give him anywhere close to that. He won’t be over 20 minutes a game, for that matter. I love Kovalchuk as a player, and I’m getting excited to watch him again in the NHL, but we should feel fortunate if he can get 17-18 minutes a night. At that level, I’d be hard-pressed to project him for more than 60 points. We have all offseason to figure this out, but that seems about right for now.  

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An interesting quote from Sabres forward Ryan O’Reilly at lockout clearing day:

Ryan O'Reilly just talked about losing his love for the game this season. Interesting stuff. #Sabres

— Bill Hoppe (@BillHoppeNHL) April 9, 2018

There were some more details later added by beat writer Joe Yerdon.

This is a guy pretty accustomed to winning even if it hasn’t been in the NHL. There are gold medals from the Ivan Hlinka, World Championships, and World Cup of Hockey. He also had two playoff appearances with Colorado. I’m sure when he signed with the Sabres a few years ago, he was looking at a team that may be bad for a year or two, but will have stockpiled enough young players (stars) by this point to be a perennial playoff threat. Things haven’t worked out that way.

It didn’t affect his fantasy performance, though. He set a four-year high in goals (24) and points (61). He had a career-high in shots (230) and face-off wins (1273). He cracked 20 power-play points for the third straight season, setting a career-high in PP goals along the way with 15. Statistically, it was a pretty good season for him.

If Ryan O’Reilly has the kind of season he had at a time when he lost love for the game at times, what can he do if (VERY BIG *IF*) the Sabres can right the ship next year?

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Don’t forget to grab your copy of the Dobber playoff list. It has been updated now that we know the teams and matchups. Get the edge you need for your playoff pools!

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Micah Blake-McCurdy (whom you should follow on Twitter and whose work in hockey is among the best) released his playoff odds per round as well as Cup odds:

🦀 Chances for 2017-2018 with the bracket finally set. Road teams are next to division names, divisional winners on the four corners. pic.twitter.com/FtGQU0JbTP

— Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) April 9, 2018

I think the two some people may disagree is Minnesota as slight favourites over Winnipeg and Washington as heavy favourites over Columbus. What say you, Dobber heads?

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This isn’t playoff-related, but hoo boy:

Sean Monahan had 4 surgeries since being taken out of the lineup: reconstructive wrist surgery, surgery on both hips and surgery on his groin… unbelievable. #Flames

— Jermain Franklin (@TSNJFranklin) April 9, 2018

This is going to be a crazy offseason for Sean Monahan. That’s, uh, a lot to rehab and come back healthy from? I’d be wary for the 2018-19 fantasy season.

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It looks like Steven Stamkos will be ready for beginning of the postseason. He missed a few games at the end of the year but the plan is for him to be in the lineup for game one. If you’re worried about his injury with regards to playoff pools, he’s healthy enough to play as it is. How much risk you’re willing to tolerate is up to you.

Joe Thornton, however, will not be in the lineup for game one. He’s been out of the lineup since the end of January and at a minimum won’t start the postseason for the Sharks. It seems to me he’s a guy to just avoid for drafts.

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Beyond the draft list available in the Dobber Shop, we’re going to have a lot of playoff content. Each Dobber writer, editor, and contributor will be providing their picks for each series as we have every year. We will also have some fantasy picks over on Sportsnet as well as daily updates here in Ramblings.

I wanted to give my thought on some series and players for drafts.

  Colorado/Nashville

Nashville is a massive favourite to win the series. By Vegas odds, they’re the biggest favourites, and it’s not even close; using Bodog odds, they sit at -500 to win the series. If you want to convert that to a percentage, it’s about 83 percent to win the series, or they win the series five out of every six opportunities.

I should make the disclaimer that I don’t outright bet on hockey games. If you’re looking for a professional handicapper, I am not that. But an 83 percent implied win rate seems high for any seven-game NHL playoff series. All it takes is for Jonathan Bernier to get hot for two weeks. Or the Nathan MacKinnon line to get hot for two weeks. Or any other number of ways one playoff team beats another playoff team four times out of seven.

Nashville wins this series most of the time. It just seems very pricy.

  San Jose

When I do playoff drafts, the very first question I ask is: which team has the easiest path to the Conference Final? When I look at this year’s bracket, it goes something like this:

Boston and Tampa Bay, should they win their first-round matchups, will face each other in the second round.

The winner of Columbus/Washington (a series I think is close) will probably have to go through the two-time defending champion Pittsburgh Penguins.

Should Nashville and Winnipeg win their series – and they both should – they’ll face off in the second round.

And then there’s the Pacific bracket.

Of the four teams in the Pacific side of the bracket – Los Angeles, Anaheim, San Jose, Vegas – only the Sharks finished in the top-15 teams league-wide in expected goals percentage at five-on-five, and San Jose was in the top-10. That holds up if we count games just since the All-Star break or, in other words, since the Joe Thornton injury.

I’m a believer in San Jose. I know we say that every year, but they’re a good team. I’m less convinced on the other teams in their bracket. Anaheim is a pretty tough first-round draw and the Sharks could very well be bounced out early. However, San Jose is not a team that will be targeted heavily in playoff drafts, which means that after you get the obligatory Bruins/Leafs/Lightning/Penguins/Predators players (or whomever is heavily targeted), you can really rack up the Sharks offensive players.

  Columbus

If I had to pick a team in the East to target that I think most people will overlook, much in the same vein as the Sharks, it’s Columbus.

The Blue Jackets’ Achilles’ heel all season was special teams. Though the common trope is that fewer penalties are called in the postseason, that has been found to not be true. At the least, Columbus did improve their power play as the season wore on, finding themselves in the middle of the pack with the man advantage after the All-Star break in expected goals. They were also mid-pack in actual goals. The PP doesn’t have to be a world-beater, but it has to be better than the ~10 percent it was over the first half of the season. And it was. If they can stay out of the box against Washington, they stand a decent shot in that series.

With all the popular teams flying off the board early, you’ll probably get your pick of the players from Columbus. The top guys like Cam Atkinson and Artemi Panarin are locks, but don’t forget Thomas Vanek, Alex Wennberg, or the returning Josh Anderson.

  Pittsburgh/Philadelphia

Can I just say, from a neutral fan’s standpoint, this is the first-round series I’m looking forward to most? I know a lot of people will say Leafs/Bruins, but I remember that 2012 Penguins/Flyers series. I was in Toronto for the Blue Jays’ home opener series watching the NHL games at a bar. I was almost in disbelief at what I was watching. Nothing but goals and fights.

Of course there’s been significant roster turnover since then but a lot of the major players like Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek, and Wayne Simmonds are still around. They’ll remember. We probably won’t get fireworks like that again but one can hope.  

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There’s a lot of talk about “what went wrong” with the Oilers. There’s a laundry list: trading talented wingers, injured defencemen, and Cam Talbot having a down year are all worthy talking points. One thing we can’t overlook is special teams. On the season, if you subtract power-play goals against from power-play goals for, the Oilers were an incredible minus-26. The next-worst team was Detroit at minus-17, and only five teams in the league were minus-10 or worse (the aforementioned teams plus Montreal, Columbus, and Ottawa). Of the 10 teams with the best differential (Boston, Colorado, San Jose, Pittsburgh, Winnipeg, Toronto, Los Angeles, Vegas, New Jersey, the Rangers) only the New York Rangers failed to qualify for the playoffs. I think a healthy Oscar Klefbom will help the power play next season but that penalty kill needs cleaning up in the worst way. 

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I know he’s not the same broadcaster he was 20 years ago but count me among the hockey fans who will miss Bob Cole this postseason. Sportsnet has not included him among their playoff broadcast teams so unless something changes, we won’t be getting a hearty Oh Baby this spring.

It’s nostalgia, for sure, but Bob Cole is one of the voices of my childhood. For me and many Canadians near my age, he’s the voice of hockey. I wish they could have had him in the booth for the Leafs/Bruins. That would have been special. 

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-rambling/ramblings-playoffs-ahoy-kovalchuk-returning-monahan-injuries-april-10/