#the winter 2019 fall 2021 and spring 2022 set

[genericpuff]

Ahem. I know what other brushes LO uses ;)

(Forewarning: most of these brushes are from early LO and as such aren't used anymore. I will put an * next to the recent brushes Rachel uses.) Pastels, Gouache, and other textured brushes (used mainly for backgrounds):

Pastel Palooza (Kyle's Megapack)

Pastella (Kyle's Megapack)

Fat Fun 100 (Kyle's Megapack)

Fat Fun Spongy (Kyle's Megapack)

Hard Square Pastel (Kyle's Winter 2019 set) *

Pigmentia (Kyle's Fall 2021 set) *

Sheriff Coal (Kyle's Spring 2022 set) *

Watercolors (used for backgrounds like clouds and texture)

500 Giant (Kyle's Watercolors)

Medium Wash Texture (Kyle's Watercolors)

Soft Irregular Wash 150 (Kyle's Watercolors)

Soft Wash 120 (Kyle's Watercolors)

FX:

Kyle's Splatter Brushes - Splatter Bot C (Kyle's Splatter set)

Stars 1 and 2 (Kyle's Splatter set)

Pressure rake (Kyle's Rake set) (warning: while this brush can be imported into CSP, this brush only properly works in Photoshop and Procreate because of their specific brush engines that allow 360 brush tip rotation)

Wet Ink Dynamic (Kyle's Splatter set)

Wet Ink Random (Kyle's Splatter set)

Bird Mix (Kyle's Concept brushes)

Bird Mix Vintage (Kyle's Concept brushes)

Break Glass (Kyle's Concept brushes)

Crackup (Kyle's Concept brushes)

Downpour (Kyle's Concept brushes)

Gulls 1 and 2 (Kyle's Concept brushes)

Manga Line Varied (Kyle's Concept brushes)

Manga Lines Broken (Kyle's Concept brushes)

Any of the smoke brushes (Kyle's Concept brushes) (warning: like the pressure rake brush, they work properly in Photoshop or Procreate)

Get the concept brush set. I'm not joking.

The entirety of Kyle's Winter 2022 set (Rachel is using these for how winter looks in the mortal realm) *

Foliage:

Fall Color Save (Kyle's Concept brushes)

Foliage Color Mix (Kyle's Concept brushes)

Foliage Mix 2, 3, and 4 (Kyle's Concept brushes)

Foliage Mix Dry 1 and 2 (Kyle's Concept brushes)

Brancher Big, Medium, and Small (Kyle's Concept brushes)

Foliage Pro 1 - 8 (Kyle's Concept brushes)

Foliage Small Color (Kyle's Concept brushes)

Foliage Ground cover (Kyle's Concept brushes)

Maddy Bellwoar's Ghibli-inspired brush sets* (can be found on Gumroad for the cheapest price)

Hope that helps!

listen here my dear sweet anon

first of all, there is no forewarning needed here that these are mostly from early LO, early LO is what I'm dying to recapture so you already struck gold and you can stop digging (or don't, because holy shit finding this in my inbox was like christmas for puff round 2)

second, i hope you're happy choosing this timeline where you're my new bestie because goddamn this is COMPREHENSIVE

and third (and most importantly) how in the flying FUCK did you know about some of these

like it's clear at this point rachel uses a lot of the kyle webster brushes, i kinda figured that out ages ago and it was just a matter of figuring out which ones she uses which you've done me the solid of putting together for me

but the ghibli background set?? the brushes that are exclusive to the newest episodes ??

either you've just become the champion of being the most hyperfixated on old LO orrrrr you know something we don't and there's a reason you're using the anon tag-

[rekishi-aka]

Tatort Saabrücken timeline thoughts (or: DfL was actually time travel)

Okay so this is a mashup of this post with post-KdE musings, because I obviously needed to course correct for KdE.

The whole thing only started making sense when I rewatched everything again before KdE. My hypothesis starts with DfL actually taking place in 2021 (instead of 2020 when it aired).

Okay let's look at a few facts:

Leo says Adam has been gone for 15 years

They were in 11th grade in 2006 per the yearbook in "Der Herr des Waldes" (= 16/17 years old per starting school at 6 or 7 and G8, both of which would have still been true when they were in school, Saarland only switched to G7 in 2003 and they would likely have been on a G8 track already)

The doorman at the Hofer company says he's born in 1955 (just like his car) and that he will retire in a few months

It's clearly spring (Lida is sowing peas and the next episode takes place two months later when it's obviously summer)

By this logic, their lives would look like this:

1990: Adam and Leo are born [I remember grading papers at uni for my freshmen born in 1990, I thought they were so incredibly young then and now 20 year olds never knew a pre 9/11 world, gosh I feel old 😭]

If we're keeping the actors actual birthdays, a few days apart in July (post-Stichtag babies): 1989

2006:

April: Roland Schürk falls into a coma after his...accident, after meeting Lausch in the woods

July/August: Adam and Leo start 11th grade (Adam was in Lausch's Philosphy class and Lausch only started at their school after the summer)

2007: Adam vanishes. My personal guess is sometime in spring/summer when he couldn't take it anymore...but Adam also isn't stupid enough to run in winter.

+15 years is 2022. Which absolutely doesn't work from a timeline perspective, because that would mean "Das Herz der Schlange" takes place shortly after "Der Herr des Waldes" and the whole team is a) too cozy for that in the restaurant, but also b) Roland is healed up and getting a cut Achilles tendon healed up does not happen in a matter of months, c) Roland had had time to plan his ultimate revenge, and d) they're dressed for early summer throughout the episode. I guess it could be early autumn, but I don't actually think so.

Until now, I always thought the writer had simply messed up the timeline and 15 years sounded better than 13 years. The link above assumes that "Das fleißige Lieschen" takes place in 2020, which was the year it aired.

(This is a non-Covid world, simply because in 2019, when it was shot, they couldn't know. So this is where the Tatort universe diverges, since a few Tatort franchises definitely had Covid, e.g., Berlin.)

However, again, I don't think, because: The doorman says he was born 1955 and that he is going to retire shortly.

Regular retirement age for birth year 1955 was 65 years 9 months (because retirement age rises incrementally until it reaches 67 year). It's spring. 1955+65 years 9 months = 2021

Also, a friend pointed out that Konrad Hofer delivered also the files for 2020 (150 years, 75 years for each of them), but those wouldn't be available in 2020, so this must be 2021.

Which means: "Das fleißige Lieschen" and "Der Herr des Waldes" both take place in 2021 and "Das Herz der Schlange" takes place in April or May 2022 and since Adam looks pretty hale in the promo pictures. Alternately, there could be a two-year jump to 2023, but I actially doubt it.

As for "Die Kälte der Erde":

Boris is still in prison

It's set in Mexico (or at least the dog days of summer)

Adam and Esther are bickering (which is actually nice!) but Adam is also still really mad about the SEK, and attrition would likely have taken care of that. there's a limit to how bitter and grudge-y one can be for prolonged periods of time

Plus, where was Adam living for a whole year? If he'd been with Leo, that would be really shitty to move out again after that long a while, and Leo is in far too good a mood at the beginning for that to be an issue

So it seems likely that KdE actually takes place in August 2022 [or 2023 if HdS is also 2023], which would leave sufficient time for Adam to heal up and rehab his fingers and be back in the field. This, of course, means that they weren't shattered but "only" broken [unlikely considering how it had happened, but! Tatort logic, whatever], but eh. If they want to run with it, fine by me.

This still means that the 15 years Adam is supposed to have been gone are an embellishment, but let's be honest, 15 years sounds better than 14.

I wonder if we'll be stuck in 2022 for the rest of time.

So, this leaves us with the following dates:

1990: Adam and Leo are born

If we're keeping the actors actual birthdays, a few days apart in July: 1989

2006:

April: Roland Schürk falls into a coma after his...accident, after meeting Lausch in the woods

July/August: Adam and Leo start 11th grade (Adam was in Lausch's Philosphy class and Lausch only started at their school after the summer)

2007: Adam vanishes. My personal guess is sometime in spring/summer when he couldn't take it anymore...but Adam also isn't stupid enough to run in winter. (Although my friend is right, he would be stupid enough to run in winter if it got too bad.)

2021

March/April [latest time to sow peas]: "Das fleißige Lieschen", Adam returns, Roland wakes up

May/June [two months later]: "Der Herr des Waldes", Roland gets suspicious

2022:

April/May: "Das Herz der Schlange", Roland seemingly gets his revenge on Adam for not becoming the man he wanted him to be

August-ish: "Die Kälte der Erde"

[mundanemoongirl]

I've been trying to write a book ever since I was in elementary school but for some reason I always lose motivation and quit a few chapters in. My current wip is the farthest I've ever gotten so I made this timeline of my progress as a visual reminder of how far I've come for when I want to give up.

Spring 2019 - I finish the Three Dark Crown series and love it so much I spend the next year thinking about everything I would add into that world

Spring 2020 - All my thoughts have strayed so far from the source material that I start forming them into their own story and create a set of characters to go with it. I struggle with a name for my mc but have the perfect idea one day at work. I name her after my manager

Summer 2021 - By this point I have a basic outline in my mind for three books. I pitch my idea to a friend in the form of a comic and she likes it so much she agrees to do the art and creates her own character to add in

Fall 2021 - I move across my country for college. While there I outline the plot and worldbuilding and start writing

Winter 2021 - I realize my friend hasn't even gotten started on the art and has been making excuses for months. I stop writing

Spring 2022 - I return home and enroll in community college but my two classes are asynchronous. With absolutely nothing to do for several months and a will to show my friend what she could have been a part of, I start writing again but this time in the form of a book. I keep my friend's character but change her name, powers, and a little of her role in the plot

Fall 2022 - I go back to a four year school and write on my phone between classes

Spring 2023 - I finish my first draft!

Summer 2023 - I start on my second draft and send it out to other writers for feedback

Now - Working on revising chapter eight

[anipgarden]

For the homies who haven't followed for a long time, why the quest for swampweed milkweek seeds?

So I’m currently at the library so if this answer is lame I may go into more detail once I get home but the long and the short of it is Swamp Milkweed Pretty Pink Color. Long version below.

Summer ~2015 (I think): volunteering at the zoo, making and selling seed bombs to raise money for conservation projects. Some Karen sasses at me for encouraging people to make butterfly gardens/plant butterfly friendly plants (??????) and basically says ‘You probably don’t even so how dare you imply I, a mother of 3, should.’ I take that as a challenge.

Fall and Winter 2015: start collecting seeds and stuff from whatever stores sold them cheap for a butterfly garden. Start learning about how important milkweed is for monarchs. Goal to obtain Any Milkweed is a go.

Spring 2016ish (I think): I find milkweed for sale at garden stores! This is Tropical Milkweed (Asclepias curassavica), and most of it is red and orange. While googling I find a Really Nice All Yellow Variety and my goal becomes Obtaining Yellow Milkweed.

Spring 2017ish: obtain yellow milkweed. At this point I have like 7ish tropical milkweed plants in my garden.

Spring either 2019 and 2020: at this point I have been growing milkweed and other flowers pollinators like for awhile when I learn that UH OH. Tropical Milkweed is invasive in my area! And I really shouldn’t be growing it! (One could argue the greenhouses in my area shouldn’t be selling it in the first place and I’d agree but I digress.) In my quest to figure out what species of milkweed ARENT invasive in my state—native, even—I find swamp milkweed and its the prettiest plant I’ve ever seen. Fuck yellow tropical milkweed, this plant is BRIGHT bright pink, beloved by caterpillars, beloved by pollinators, and smells like VANILLA? I want it now.

Thus begins the quest to grow it (and other species but mostly swamp milkweed) from seed. It never works out.

Spring 2020: accidentally steps on seedlings. Fatality.

Spring 2021: seeds were cold stratifying in the fridge but were left out of the fridge too long, sprouted in the bag for three days, and were weak as hell when I finally put them in. Forgot to water. Fatality.

Spring 2022: seeds are left in cups for way too long, forgot to water because Senior Project, cold stratification of next batch doesnt go well. Fatality.

Spring 2023: seeds mold while cold stratifying, germination rate is ‘one out of 21’ and then that one dies because I forget to water. Fatality.

During that whole while I’m thinking to myself ‘ok I suck at growing these from seed maybe they sell them in greenhouses and plant stores?’ And no they don’t. Until earlier this year when I finally find them being sold at native plant festivals (wherein which I arrive too late to my town’s once-yearly native plant festival and they’re sold out of milkweeds before the 30 minute mark of a 5 hour event YES I’m still mad about that) and other gardening festivals (shout out to the lady selling swamp milkweed at the zoo’s garden festival AND the honeybee festival) and ONE garden store near my friend’s house by the beach called Earthworks.

There are other milkweeds I am questing after now because there’s like 21-22 native milkweeds in Florida and my goal is to grow as many different varieties as possible (which is HARD because NO ONE SELLS THEM except for at this once a year plant sale and they don’t have enough to last THIRTY MINUTES YES IM STILL MAD). Currently I’ve also got my eyes set on sandhill milkweed (Asclepias humistrata) and Redring milkweed (whos latin name I don’t remember right now). Also trying to figure out why pictures of swamp milkweed are Bright Ass Vibrant Pink but all the ones I’ve gotten and that my garden server has are pale ass strawberry milk pink but yknow.

Since I’m trying to start a career in animation I’ll likely end up moving to Southern California sooner or later, and all my knowledge about swamp milkweed will be Fucking Useless. But worry not! I have another milkweed to obsess over that grows in Cali! Heartleaf Milkweed (which might be Asclepias cordifolia but I could be remembering that wrong) is GORGEOUS and it has the growth habit like Sandhill in a sense but the flowers are droopy and VELVETY PURPLE and the leaves are HEART SHAPED (kinda) so yknow. Vibes.

Anyways yeah thems the brakes pal.

[kelleah-meah]

My 2023 Samhain tarot reading

Once again, I'm a little late sharing my annual Samhain tarot reading results. What can I say? Life's been a bit ... unusual lately.

Enough excuses. If you checked out my 2022 Samhain reading, you know the past few years had a bit of a recurring theme. In short, the past few year's reading gave me a Theme of the Year card that followed a pattern.

For Samhain 2019-2020, my Theme of the Year card was a Knight of Wands.

For Samhain 2020-2021, the Theme of the Year card was a Queen of Wands.

For 2021-2022, the Theme of the Year was represented by the King of Cups.

And now, for 2022-2023, the Theme of the Year is ... The World.

So here we are, looking at the 2023-2024 year, and what did it tell me to expect over the upcoming year? The Fool.

Nah, I'm just kidding!

I did The Fool card later in the reading, but it wasn't my Theme of the Year card. Even though this Witch's New Year spread did send me plenty of signs reinforcing the idea that I will be starting a new journey in my life (which is echoed in other areas of my life, hello reverse nodal return!), it wasn't as in-your-face as I would've appreciated, I did receive the message.

Let's dive in!

Here is my set up on All Hallow's Eve at the end of last month:

For anyone wondering, I typically begin all my readings with a brief breathing exercise aided by the Breathe app. Then I use the SoundHeal app to play a tone while I meditate. Of course, I can meditate or do a reading without doing all of these things, but I find that the ritual of it all helps me gain clarity during my tarot reading.

(With that said, I am looking to replace the SoundHeal app because it's not as effective as it used to be. I've noticed the tones go down significantly within seconds after you start no matter how loud you turn up the volume.)

Anyway, after I meditate, I lay out the cards to follow this specific spread:

And this is what it told me:

I know that's a little hard to see, but feel free to dive into the breakdown below to help give you more insight into each card ...

Theme of the Year

- 4 of Pentacles

Interpretation: I will actively give and save as I learn to be more in flow with the universe and live an abundant life.

Fall 1 (the remainder of Fall 2023)

- 7 of Pentacles

Interpretation: I will give thanks for what I harvest as I also reflect, reinvigorate, and realign, utilizing patience as the seeds of my efforts continue to grow.

Fall 2 (the beginning of Fall 2024)

- 10 of Pentacles

Interpretation: I will stop living in survival mode and expect success and happiness. Spiritual and material abundance will abound, and I will spread it around generously.

Hopes

- 9 of Pentacles

Interpretation: The harmony and harvest I seek are right in front of me. I will be myself and embrace the energy of success and celebrate my progress.

Dreams

- Justice

Interpretation: My dreams of balance and harmony are becoming a reality. In response, I will learn from every part of me and allow that wisdom to guide me.

Winter 1

- The Sun

Interpretation: I am whole and perfect so I will shine like the sun and find my confidence in joy and creativity.

Winter 2

- 6 of Cups

Interpretation: I will forgive myself and make peace with my past for it has brought me to where I am meant to be.

Creativity

- The Moon

Interpretation: I will go within, find comfort in the darkness, and calmly listen to the whispers of my intuition as it reinvigorates your creativity.

Career

- The Fool

Interpretation: I will trust my intuition as I dive into a new beginning for an adventure that will lead me down my soul's intended path.

Money

- 10 of Wands

Interpretation: I will let go of heavy burdens and prioritize my essential needs. The rest will fall into place.

Business

- 10 of Swords

Interpretation: I will let go to meet the new dawn so my wounds can begin to heal.

Spring 1

- The Devil

Interpretation: I will delve into my shadow side, go outside my comfort zone, and find the healing I seek. I am on the cusp of liberation.

Spring 2

- The Empress

Interpretation: I will focus on unifying my mind, body and spirit. I will also calmly move in the direction of my heart and abundance will follow.

Relationships

- King of Cups

Interpretation: Through diplomacy and wise leadership, I will find stability and balance while fostering love, empathy and acceptance.

Love

- Queen of Pentacles

Interpretation: I will give myself permission to rise to my potential, warts and all. Abundance in the form of self-love is essential to a life well-lived.

Summer 1

- 3 of Wands

Interpretation: Opportunities will arrive as I continue to move in the right direction. I will keep going as I manifest what I have prepared for years ago.

Summer 2

- The World

Interpretation: A blissful and happy ending is upon me. I will welcome this beautiful shift as it expands my consciousness and prepares me for the next adventure.

Travel

- 2 of Cups

Interpretation: A beginning of a new partnership or friendship is near, resulting in the merging of 2 paths and kindred spirits.

Explorations

- King of Pentacles

Interpretation: Every lesson, challenge, success and failure in my life led to more personal growth. I will cultivate my past and dream my biggest light to life.

Hearth

- 3 of Cups

Interpretation: Nothing is too big or too small to celebrate. I will trust my heart to lead me to genuine friendships that make life more joyful.

Home

- The Tower

Interpretation: An unexpected change will challenge you to the point where you will need to re-evaluate, re-direct, re-establish and re-align in order to move toward the brightest light.

---

My overall thoughts:

Once again, I have no idea what to expect for the upcoming year. I know that at the moment, I'm at a bit of a crossroads and I'm doing my best to not feel afraid of what's to come.

The 4 of Pentacles is not a bad Theme of the Year. Clearly I am building toward something -- hopefully it will include paying off medical bills and reducing debt -- but at the moment, I don't know what that something is.

Let's just say I know more of what I do not want than what I do want.

There are a lot of major arcana for this upcoming year (although 1 less than last year), and it's important to remember that it is mostly pretty balanced:

The Tower

The World

The Devil

The Empress

The Fool

Justice

The Sun

The Moon

Considering what's going on in the world (especially in my country of the U.S.), I think the best I can do is take every day one day at a time.

[roothealingca]

Introduction to Root Healing

Hi, I'm Sher. I've been on and off of tumblr since the spring of 2011. It's been a space for me to express myself and also build community. This is exactly why I've created this space.

In the Summer of 2019, I began experiencing what many refer to as as a spiritual awakening. This has been a process that's gone on until now, and still continues to this day (my spiritual shifts are normally more subtle these days). During that summer, I was introduced to tarot through my YouTube suggestions page, and soon after came my introduction to crystals. Within the next year, reiki had fallen on my path.

I did my initial training in the Winter of 2021 under a Reiki Master from France, and my most current training in the Fall of 2022 under Reiki Masters from Vancouver, BC.

To backtrack, during the Spring of 2021, I partook in an Akashic Records program, which opened me up to my spiritual gifts, namely clairaudience. Being opened to this gift, however, didn't come easy. I ended up spending a lot of time in my upper chakras (third eye and crown), and lost touch with my physical reality. This resulted in me being hospitalized. Since this process, I've done a lot of healing work through working with my medical team, but also through my most recent reiki mastery training. Working with reiki the second time around, has allowed me to connect back with my body, and become grounded. This has allowed me to continue opening up to my spiritual gifts.

I'm currently in the process of creating a reiki business. It has had a great impact on me so, now it's time to share this healing modality with the world.

Once I have everything set up for bookings, I will include my website on this page so you can book a session with me. My focus at this time will be reiki healings, but I will also have a tarot reading service as well for those whom are interested.

That's all for now!

Looking forward to connecting with you all soon!

In the meantime, if you have questions or would like to connect with me anyways, don't hesitate to send me a message.

[caro-ht]

Hallo/hola/ciao bellísimo zine +font + pattern. Ahora sí, no sé cuándo empezó este proyecto, en primavera o en invierno, las letras trajeron al fanzine o el fanzine llamó a la tipografía, y los pattern? The letters were cutted in linoleum between winter 2019 and fall 2021. Each letter is influenced by the facts of its moment and the diversity of its occurrence. They were called by the typography craft to be organized into a font family. Because of this, these uppercases were digitized during the spring of 2022, and I've decided to include a pattern set in the lowercase slots. The project became a publication at some point during those times. You can buy this beautiful spe-Zine + font + patterns. (link in bio) Size: A5 105 x 148 mm. 27 pages. 45 gr full weight. Risograph black + fluo yellow-green. Softcover (170 gr) + poster jacket. Hand binding (white thread never goes over black illustration). 50 copies #zine #fanzine #bookdesign #zinedesign #linoleum #linolcut #typedesign #typography #lettering #risography #fluo #carogiovagnoli https://www.instagram.com/p/CnXCCjvNb4M/?igshid=NGJjMDIxMWI=

[writemarcus]

The Metropolitan Museum of Art Announces the New MetLiveArts Season of Performances

Live performance returns to The Met's galleries and theater with a fall 2021 lineup that features an evening of music by Gavin Creel and more.

by Alexa Criscitiello Aug. 27, 2021  

The Met today announced a new season of live performances with in-person audiences beginning fall 2021 and a new Artist in Residence, the acclaimed dancer and choreographer Bijayini Satpathy. Beginning in October, performances will once again take place in galleries throughout the Museum, as well as in the Grace Rainey Rogers Auditorium, and will feature MetLiveArts commissions and leading international musicians and composers.

"MetLiveArts has always been an innovator in the field, producing compelling works that illuminate The Met's collection and galleries in new and often surprising ways," said Max Hollein, Marina Kellen French Director of The Met. "This season brings a range of powerful programs, and we are thrilled to again invite audiences back to the Museum to engage with the exhilarating performances we have ahead."

Limor Tomer, Lulu C. and Anthony W. Wang General Manager of Live Arts, commented: "After nearly a year and a half, we are so excited to welcome back our audiences to experience the visceral force and power of live performance and what it means to once again share energy and space with dynamic artists and fellow enthusiasts. We have always asked our performers to create works that challenge them, and this past year has put that invitation to the test for so many. This new season will include some of the most personal, unexpected, and inventive works of any MetLiveArts season."

Artists this season include Tony and Olivier Award-winner Gavin Creel (Hello, Dolly!; West End production of The Book of Mormon); a world-premiere work by Arvo Pärt at the Temple of Dendur; four-time Grammy Award-winner Angélique Kidjo in an intimate performance; the Dessoff Choirs and Orchestra with soprano Laquita Mitchell; and Heartbeat Opera's acclaimed original production of Beethoven's Fidelio.

During the past 17 months, MetLiveArts has presented virtual performances, including Sonic Cloisters, the popular ongoing series of electronic music concerts filmed in the galleries and courtyards of The Met Cloisters. While the Museum was closed to the public, there were new concerts filmed in the galleries amid the iconic art, as well as digital premieres of past performances-both of which have encouraged audiences from around the world to engage with brilliant musicians and The Met collection and spaces. The Museum's resident quartet, ETHEL & Friends, will continue their weekly virtual series, Balcony Bar from Home.

Performances will be ticketed and open rehearsals will be free with Museum admission.

Artist in Residence: Bijayini Satpathy

Hailed by The New Yorker as "a performer of exquisite grace and technique," the revered Odissi dancer Bijayini Satpathy will be the 2021-22 MetLiveArts Artist in Residence. She will premiere new site-specific works and collaborate with musicians, visual artists, and dancers. Satpathy launched her solo career in 2019, after 25 years as a principal dancer with the lionized Nrityagram Dance Ensemble based in Bangalore, India. As a soloist, Satpathy creates new works that reflect her interest in challenging the tradition and vision of Odissi, and for The Met she will explore that interest through performances in unexpected areas of the Museum's collection, with a special focus on works in modern and contemporary art. During her Museum residency, she will further expand her choreographic language beyond the Indian dance form and collaborate with a range of artists and Met curators.

Satpathy's residency will include in-gallery performances, extensive workshops with New York City-based students and professional dancers, and auditorium performances.

Open rehearsals will begin in January 2022 and take place in five gallery spaces throughout The Met, including the Astor Court; Galleries for the Art of the Arab Lands, Turkey, Iran, Central Asia, and Later South Asia; and the Fuentidueña Chapel at The Met Cloisters. All open rehearsals will take place during Museum hours and will be open to the public. Details about performances in spring and fall 2022 will be announced.

Fall 2021 and Early Winter 2022 Performances:

Gavin Creel: Walk on Through

Monday, October 25, 2021, at 6 and 8:30 p.m.

The Grace Rainey Rogers Auditorium

Tony and Olivier Award-winner Gavin Creel was a museum novice for most of his 20 years living in New York City. Invited to create a program for MetLiveArts, he spent countless hours over the past year exploring the Museum's galleries, finding inspiration, and falling in love with The Met. Experience Creel's newfound passion and sense of wonder for The Met in his newly composed songs that make the art sing.

Tickets start at $25.

Celebrating Arvo Pärt at The Met

Sunday, October 31, 2021, at 3 p.m., and Monday, November 1, 2021, at 7 p.m.

The Temple of Dendur

The Temple of Dendur is the setting for a world-premiere a cappella choral work from the beloved Estonian composer Arvo Pärt, composed to celebrate the reopening of St. Nicholas Greek Orthodox Church, which was destroyed on September 11, 2001. The Schola Cantorum choir are joined by Grammy Award-winning Experiential Orchestra in an evening of masterpieces composed over Pärt's career, which has spanned seven decades.

Tickets start at $65.

The Orchestra Now, Conducted by Leon Botstein:

Beethoven and Cristofori, The Piano's First Century

Sunday, December 5, 2021, at 2 p.m.

Beethoven's Piano Concerto No. 5 illuminates the transformation of piano music, which began with Bartolomeo Cristofori's breakthrough invention of the fortepiano. The Grand Piano (1720) by Bartolomeo Cristofori (Italian) is on view in Gallery 684 at The Met Fifth Avenue and is part of the Museum's Musical Instruments collection.

Stravinsky, Picasso, and Cubism

Sunday, February 20, 2022, at 2 p.m.

Featuring Stravinsky's Concerto for Piano and Wind Instruments and Pablo Picasso's Man with a Guitar.

Igor Stravinsky's deconstructed and reassembled music from the 1920s was heavily influenced by the work of his friend Pablo Picasso. One of his masterpieces from this period is this concerto, which Stravinsky loved to perform himself.

Dvořák, Macdowell, and Delacroix: The New World

Sunday, April 10, 2022, at 2 p.m.

Antonín Dvořák's Symphony No. 9, From the New World (Mvt. 2); Edward MacDowell's Suite No. 2, Indian; and Eugène Delacroix's The Natchez

From their earliest encounters in the New World, Europeans were mesmerized by the Indigenous peoples of North America. French artist Eugène Delacroix painted a Natchez family as they fled the massacre of their tribe up the Mississippi River. Edward MacDowell's Indian Suite incorporated Indigenous melodies and rhythms, and the second movement of Antonín Dvořák's New World Symphony was inspired by Longfellow's poem on Hiawatha.

All performances take place in the Grace Rainey Rogers Auditorium.

Tickets start at $30; $75 for the series.

Christmas with the Dessoff Choirs

Sunday, December 19, 2021, at 3 p.m.

The Grace Rainey Rogers Auditorium

Led by director Malcolm J. Merriweather, the Dessoff Choirs and Orchestra welcome the holiday season with two works by highly influential yet underrepresented composers: Margaret Bonds and Mary Lou Williams. The concert features The Ballad of the Brown King, a Christmas cantata by Margaret Bonds, and the great Jazz composer Mary Lou Williams's Black Christ of the Andes, along with some of Williams's other rarely heard choral works. The performance features internationally recognized soloists, soprano Laquita Mitchell, mezzo-soprano Lucia Bradford, and tenor Noah Stewart.

Tickets start at $25.

Angélique Kidjo at The Met

Monday, December 27, and Tuesday, December 28, 2021, at 6 and 8:30 p.m.

The Michael C. Rockefeller Wing

Four-time Grammy Award-winner and "Africa's premier diva" (Time) Angélique Kidjo performs an intimate site-specific program devoted to the Museum's collection of African art. Set in the galleries of the Michael C. Rockefeller Wing, which are currently closed in preparation for renovation and reenvisioning, Kidjo's performance anticipates the vision and reinstallation of the galleries, underscoring the aesthetic qualities, authorship, provenance, and cultural context of the art to be displayed.

Tickets start at $65.

Beethoven's Fidelio

Heartbeat Opera

Thursday, February 10; Saturday, February 12; and Monday, February 14, 2022, at 7 p.m.

The Grace Rainey Rogers Auditorium

Adapted and directed by Ethan Heard

Music arranged and directed by Daniel Schlosberg

New English dialogue by Marcus Scott and Ethan Heard

When a Black activist is wrongfully incarcerated, his wife disguises herself to infiltrate the system and free him, but injustice reigns. In this daring adaptation created by Heartbeat Opera, Beethoven's classic is reimagined in the time and context of the Black Lives Matter movement. The opera will feature the voices of more than 100 incarcerated singers and volunteers from prison choirs.

Tickets start at $25.

For tickets, visit metmuseum.org/performances, call 212-570-3949, or stop by any desk in the Great Hall at The Met Fifth Avenue.

Your ticket includes Museum admission on the day of the event.

MetLiveArts performances require all guests age 12 and older to show proof of full vaccination (at least 14 days after the second dose of a two-dose series vaccine, or at least 14 days after a single-dose vaccine). Children under 12 must be accompanied by a fully vaccinated adult. The Met may require additional safety measures for these performances and will communicate such measures to confirmed guests in advance. More information on The Met's comprehensive safety procedures can be found on metmuseum.org.

[gra-sonas]

Interesting interview with CW President Mark Pedowitz. Roswel, New Mexico is not mentioned, but he talks about programming decisions, straight to series orders, the next fall schedule etc. Another thing he mentions is, that he's happy that The CW will air a few more "family oriented" shows (like the Kung Fu and Walker reboots, and Superman & Lois). If you squint, RNM's very much a "(found) family oriented" show - with aliens. ;)

Pedowitz also mentions, that they have several slots to fill for the upcoming fall, and the 2022 spring schedule, but they haven't made all the decisions yet. While we might not hear about a S4 renewal very soon, this gives me a fairly good feeling tbh. RNM's an established show, it's comparatively "cheap" to make, they have great tax incentives in New Mexico, and the show is doing overall well enough in ratings and international sales.

—————————————————————————————

Mark Pedowitz, broadcast's longest-tenured chief, has no regrets about delaying the start of The CW's fall season.

His network (like Fox), made the decision last summer to wait until the new year to bring back scripted originals like Riverdale and All American. The late start afforded productions more time to get used to filming during a pandemic, where episodes take longer (and cost more) to complete. It also.

While the January fall launch gives the network a backlog of originals to air without interruption (provided the pandemic doesn't have other plans), it also delayed decisions like the network's traditional mid-January slate of early renewals.

Now, as The CW prepares to formally launch its fall season on Sunday with the returns of Batwoman and All American, Pedowitz talks with The Hollywood Reporter about how the network is plotting a return to business as usual, including more straight to series orders, developing shows with heart and, yes, the future of all things DC.

Let's pretend we're at TCA: When will you bring Supernatural back?

If they boys want to come back, we're ready to have them. (Laughing.)

The CW traditionally hands out early renewals during this time of year. Where are you in those conversations, especially since your season doesn't formally start until Sunday with Batwoman.

I'm just getting into those discussions. I came from a studio background and understand the importance of early pickups — it allows for better preparation. We're a few weeks away but I need to finish up some internal discussions.

ABC, NBC and CBS all returned originals late last year. In hindsight, any regrets holding the season start to January

No. Once we said it, we felt it was the right thing to do. It would have been too patchworky. At this point, it gets longer and longer and you're waiting to get back into some form of what's your finished product going to look like? I have no regrets. I just wish it didn't take this long to happen.

How much has The CW's late start to the season — originals return next starting Sunday night — impacted the way you conduct business, both in terms of renewals and the negotiations for pilot orders, etc.?

We did this strategically and made choice in the summer because we were concerned with misleading affiliates, the consumer and the ad sales community that we were going to have a fall schedule in the fall and felt that wasn't the right thing. We found some successes with some of the acquisitions, like Stargirl, Coroner and World's Funniest Animals. Some of those are good linear, a lot of them were great on digital. Our digital presence was kept alive because of that. That said, our fall had Supernatural. And once that came back, we were doing [ratings] numbers we were doing pre-pandemic.

We are interested in seeing how people react. It's not just a covid issue right now; it's also the uncertainty in the country with news being as much of a viewing choice as anything else. We're going to have to see how it all plays. We're getting a little colder of a start than we would have if we rolled out of summer. On a digital basis, we're fine. On a linear basis, it's gotten harder.  On the development basis, nothing has really changed. I think straight to series [orders] will be done again this year — just for financial purposes so people can get going as quickly as possible — by the end of January. That could change because the surge could change. But there is a bit more flexibility to it. We're still on the same schedule: we have to talk to advertisers in some form in May about what things look like for the following fall. We're hoping that the following fall is closer to a normalized fall — like 2019 was. Do I think it will be completely that way? No. Do I think it will be much more that than not that? Yes.

So, you'll be focused largely on straight to series orders instead of pilot pickups this season?

We haven't seen a lot of development yet. Lost Boys and Maverick [ordered to pilot last year], because of what occurred, are back in contention as development, not because they got picked up to pilot last year. They're in the mix with many other things, including dramas from Ava DuVernay, Black Lightning spinoff Painkiller, Wonder Girl, PowerPuff Girls, The 4400. The scripts are coming in slowly. Right now, I've seen just a handful of scripts and I'm waiting for others to come in so I can make some decisions. They're in contention for how we pick up pilots or direct to series.

Last year, you went straight to series on Superman & Lois and Walker largely out of concerns that there could be a WGA strike. Why is this an attractive model for some development this year?

A lot of is dependent upon what we're dealing with in terms of production needs with ongoing series in a sense. The other is what's the economic impact. Bypassing pilots is short-term less money than going straight to series. We look at the economic impact and if we believe enough in these shows and that will determine the decision.

With two veteran shows — Supergirl and Black Lightning — ending, how much more room on the schedule do you anticipate you'll have? You're making straight to series decisions based on a slate that will have just gotten under way.

We'll have space for three or four shows for next season, 2021-22. We're sorry to see Supergirl and Black Lightning go, but we're happy to have Naomi, Wonder Girl and Painkiller in the hopper right now. From The CW-DC/Arrow-verse — whatever we're calling it these days! — I think we'll be OK for the next generation. The Flash is new leader with Arrow gone and we're hoping Superman & Lois and Batwoman step up there for a new grouping of shows.

How much more life is left in veterans like Flash and Legends as you develop the next wave of the Arrow-verse? Especially when you have Greg Berlanti doing a big-budget Green Lantern and DC world at HBO Max and J.J. Abrams doing Justice League Dark for the streamer?

And they have Matt Reeves' Gotham PD there, too. It always makes me feel good when we're copied. (Laughing.) There's a lot of life left. Greg and I speak quite frequently. I'm not that concerned.   You recently passed on Green Arrow and the Canaries. Why? Timing. We couldn't quite figure out a model similar to Stargirl and couldn't quite get there. We were hoping to have it start at HBO Max and take a second run on The CW, but we couldn't figure out how to do it and couldn't make it all work.   Last year's pilots Lost Boys and Maverick are back in the development stage. What's the status of The 100 prequel?The 100 prequel is still in discussions at the studio level. I'd like to see it happen. I'm comfortable with where the prequel spinoff episode we did this past season. It's not a pilot; the earliest that would happen would be probably summer 2022, if that happens. We may end up deciding that we can't put the pieces together and it won't happen.

Speaking of the studio level, Warner Bros. is in the midst of a massive change as Channing Dungey is replacing Peter Roth. How does the changeover at Warners — which co-owns The CW alongside CBS Studios — impact the network? What kind of conversations have you had with Channing about their content pipeline since Warners is your main supplier?

Peter and I had remarkable partnership and relationship, and that will be missed. Channing worked with me when I ran ABC Studios and we've known each other for a long time. She's very supportive of The CW and the shows that go on The CW. There are shows she'd like to keep there and get on the air there. Obviously, her priorities may be a little different than Peter's. We are all working toward the same goal.

How has the pandemic and our current state of the world changed the types of programs you're looking to make? Can you do a show like Maverick, set on a college campus, during a pandemic? Do you still make dystopian stuff, especially if it's expensive?

Maverick is still in contention. I just had this conversation with our development team. I've come to the point right now about hope. About safe havens and a place where you can just ease your tension a little bit. One of the nice things about Superman & Lois, Walker and Kung Fu is at the end of the day — despite all the superhero/genre and Texas Ranger stuff — all three shows are about family, which is an important aspect going forward. You'll see Superman in a way you've never seen him before. And you'll see Jared Padalecki in a way you've never seen before. After watching all eight of Wentworth, I switched to Bridgerton because I wanted something light and fluffy. And I found Ted Lasso a worthy successor to Schitt's Creek — it gave me a hug and made me feel good. It made me remember that the human condition is not always bleak. That's where my head's at these days and I'm hoping development is more hopeful than it is dark and dismal.

Have you considered keeping production on your scripted shows going through the summer given the current covid surge that's happening this winter and the uncertainty in terms of vaccinations and new, more contagious strains? 

We work with the studios on episodic orders and when the shows would end, when they can revert back to a normalized schedule — some can do more easily than others — so we could be there for next October with a more normal schedule. We've sat with the studios and our production partners and have figured this out. Barring catastrophe, we think we're in good shape.

The CW is a joint venture between Warner Bros. and CBS Studios. Since both studios have prioritized their own studios, how much longer does it make sense for them to operate a linear network?

That's a question for them. for the moment, both parent companies are happy with how this is set up. They recognize the value of The CW brand for selling their shows in digital aftermarket.

Interview edited for length and clarity.

[fst-critique]

In what appears to be a clever spoof on pop-music videos like those broadcast on MTV during the early 2000s, Lanvin’s joint Resort and Spring 2022 Menswear collections were unveiled in a 3 minute short and set in what appeared to be a small house on some beach haven paradise. Directed from the first-person point of view, the video’s protagonist was that of a model seemingly being tortured backstage as a cast of hair and makeup artists aggressively prime the woman for an upcoming runway show. Her mind drifts as she imagines herself taking part in a tropical setting partying with other beauty’s adorned in brightly colored outfits without a care in the world as the track Pure Shores plays in the background. This scene would continue even amidst a brutal storm that battered the shack. Nothing could halt the carefree vibe. In just a matter of minutes, the model was back in reality as a familiar voice awakened her deepest fantasy. “Wake up, wake up” shouted the Lanvin creative director Bruno Sialleli at the zoned-out dreamer, instantly the imaginary receded, and the real show that is life began. However, perhaps those commands would have been better used at the designer himself as his showing for the Spring 2022 season matched a convoluted theme of opulence and dread. Wake up Bruno, this is Lanvin, not not the flailing Forever 21’s men’s summer sale.

Since the departure of the well-respected menswear creative Lucas Ossendrijver in 2018, Lanvin’s menswear division has failed to live up to its predecessor’s groundbreaking philosophy. No one likes living in the past, no matter how candid and glorious it appears upon reflection, though, Bruno Sialelli’s work in the men’s space is enough to drive viewers back into the archives to remind themselves of just how good how the previous two-decades have been. Ossendrijver has moved on. His place within both the history of design and that of Lanvin is cemented in the success that stimulated and contributed to the wider acceptance and elevation of what it meant to dress a contemporary man. For Sialleli, no such thought has accompanied his men's voyage. His eye has been strictly focused on priming the womenswear for a comeback. In the three years since Bruno's appointment, the turnaround and growth for the Parisian house have been solid, even admirable. This resort season is no different. Referencing the archive and narrowing down on an aesthetic of glamour and decadence has guided the lost ship that was Paris’s oldest French couture house since the departure of Alber Elbaz. Even so, his inability to steer the smaller vessel that is the menswear line calls into question the company’s decision to continue with him at the helm.

For starters, out of the forty-some looks presented this season, nearly half of the presentation saw womenswear take precedent as a result of having included Resort-wear into the mix. Before this, each menswear outing has resulted in more attention being placed on dressing the female counterpart. Harmonious and bohemian, the floral prints, leather coats, and revealing skirts and mini dresses were bourgeois yet youthful. Glancing back to the applauded “If I Was a Rich Girl” Fall Winter 2021 Womenswear collection, the bridging of the seasons has begun to define a promising narrative for both Bruno and the Maison. Fringed trims hung from terry buttoned cropped tops and that of a mid-thigh length wrap skirt alerting wearers that while the Winter parties had succumbed to the warmer weather, the energy would continue into the summer. Party clothes for a generation who have been cooped up in their homes for the past year and a half no doubt. Digging further and further into the archive saw another interpretation of Jeanne Lanvin’s signature bubble silhouette done up in an enthused light pink pastel with short sleeves and the weight centered on the garments back. The womenswear portion of the collection was a triumph. New and accessorized with rounded crescent bags with gold chains, the Lanvin woman who chooses to purchase the upscaled beachwear will surely look posh with a mai tai in hand. On the contrary, the men’s excerpt was forgettable, unenthusiastic, and disorderly.

Dating back to his first menswear collection in June of 2019, Bruno’s aesthetic has often mirrored that of whom he had replaced. Sialleli comes across as that of Ossendrijver’s younger brother whose inability to transition and move into the present has cast his work in an unflattering, stale light. The Spring 2022 collection may as well be from 2002, or 1992: there is hardly any movement of scalability in this collection. Last Fall it was knockoff grunge attire, the season before that- Spring 2021- saw a Parisian attitude dumbed down to simple suits and a bowling shirt. Unimaginative and uninspired, the remainder of the men’s set for 2022 has followed suit. Look one saw an image of a bleak man pondering into the mirror as if so dissatisfied with his clothing he perhaps wishes he stayed home for the weekend. What followed was “trippy” checkered prints- his and her version's pulled straight off of a Tama Impala cover- table clothe check patterns, and high waisted trousers recycled from season after season without a hint of change. Flipping this subdued style on its head was the inclusion of horrendous surfer attire that was so tight you couldn’t help but feel for the wearer. When matched with a softer tailored suit, the image only became worse. Concluding the show with a monogrammed Jeanne Lanvin logo “JL” ended the presentation with a poor aftertaste of the lazy streetwear branding craze of yonder. Placed on a puffer jacket, a women’s wrap coat, an ill-fitting jumpsuit, and a matching set of a polo and trouser, the mundanity was primed for a directionless mood. Such is the state of Lanvin Menswear.

Choosing to mix the resort season with a menswear offering is a nuanced idea that combines two seasons into one. Outside of the paralleled color pallet and print combinations, the whole was split into desirable women’s attire and tacky, oversaturated men’s clothing. Lanvin should opt to invest in a menswear designer who is both worthwhile and concentrated. Until then, such efforts are aimless.

[wanderinglotus7]

The Legacy Continues

Well, I made it! I made it. There are three days left of 2020 until we roll into 2021. This year has been a game changer. Game changer doesn’t seen correct...life altering sounds better. My life drastically changed within the past month. Though these events threw me off my game, I recovered and bounced back even stronger. This speaks to my tremendous strength in the Lord & within myself. I continue to tell myself that the fortune teller I spoke with summer 2019 has been spot on y’all. August 2020 to now, adjust to my new life has been challenging, but I don’t regret my decision moving to Massachusetts. This decision is part of the life-course God has plan for me.

Yes, I miss my family. However, my experiences of attending Bridgewater College and traveling to Thailand has prepared me for this moment in my life. Because of covid I haven’t really been active in my new environment, but I try to take advantage of the opportunities I do have to explore my surroundings. Last week I took a nice walk and ended up exploring another part of Newton and almost ended up in the inner city of Boston (I think I walked about 8 miles in total). I took another walk into town and walked into HomeGoods on my way to Starbucks. Leaving and returning to Boston, I took the train and was able to get myself to and from the Logan airport. Small victories in my book! I am in no rush to try to experience everything all at once. I have around 4 to 5 years to embrace Boston as my new home. I already feel like it is anyway. This is my true testimony to see if I can really be responsible for myself. So far, I feel confident in achieving/excelling in this area of my life. My upbringing has prepared me, yet again, for the challenges of [young] adulthood. 

I am getting ahead of myself. I have to rewind a bit give y’all an update. December 18th was the last day of classes and finals week. I have successfully finished my first semester of grad school!!! YEAH ME!!!!! I’m telling you the hard work paid off. I did have my moments of doubt and feelings of not being good enough. I was overwhelmed. I felt like I was drowning trying to balance school, work, and my internship. On top of that, I am trying to balance a relationship along with working on my mental health. My mind & body is always on the go. No time for rest...actually there are moments of rest, but I chose not to rest instead. I have a bad habit of pushing through and bulldozing my way through my life. I don’t take the necessary time to be present and focus on what is in front of me. Sometimes, I get too focused on the future and forget to enjoy the present. I have been in this mode since mid October to the 18th. Midterms kicked me in the ass because that was around the same time I began working at chipotle. Even before Chipotle, I was falling behind on the readings and assignments for my classes. On the other hand, my internship with Amirah is not a stressor in my life because it is an experience that I am passionate about. I’m not bothered having to wake up early and end my days late when it comes to my internship because I am that committed. Being overwhelmed and stressed I passed all my midterms with good grades (all As and one B)! Then the unexpected happened...

October 29th at 11:18pm, I received a phone call from my mother informing me that my Grandmother Shirley unexpected passed away. I think they determined her cause of death was because of a heart attack. I’m not sure. Honestly, I don’t think I really want to know. I’m hoping she passed away peaceful. The news sent me into shock. I just couldn’t believe it. I still can’t believe it. I just had a conversation with that previous Thursday or Saturday, and the conversation went so well. She was so proud of me. She was excited for me to be home for Christmas and all these other things. It’s not the same, but at least we were able to say “I love you” before she passed. Who would’ve known that would be the last time I will ever speak to her again. And this had to happen around the holidays and around the same time that Laura Mae (my great grandmother passed away). In less than three weeks, I received a phone call and text early in the morning from my Grandma Louise and my dad telling me that my granddaddy unexpectedly passed away too. Two grandparents removed from my life at the snap of the finger.

With help from my family, I was able to fly to Virginia for both funeral services. This time I said my final good-byes unlike with Laura Mae. I didn’t want to live with that guilt. Everyone has been very compassionate, understanding, and accommodating to my situation and has given me time to grieve & heal especially regarding BC, Amirah, & Chipotle. I missed a few classes and had to receive a few extensions on a couple of assignments. I pulled through the best way I could manage in my emotional state. My emotional state didn’t get any better dealing with my relationship during this time. Some of my boyfriend’s recent decisions added more unnecessary stress in my life. I was already stressed about me introducing him to my entire family because the timeline got rushed and I wasn’t for sure if I wanted him around while I’m going through a mental & emotional meltdown. At the end of the day, he wanted to be there for me to provide his live and support and I wasn’t going to deny him of doing so. It would’ve been selfish of me to tell him “No”. Everything happens for a reason. Instead of spending maybe two weeks together, my boyfriend and I spent basically all of November together bouncing between Gloucester and Woodstock. It sucked that it had to be under sad circumstances.

Decisions, decisions, decisions that is where my mind was at. Only a few individuals gave me the needed space to focus & process my emotions. From all angles I was being pressured to make some permanent decisions in which my mind was not in the right mind frame to be thinking. I did reach out and have been receiving counseling services from the university which has been helpful. I am in the process of searching for a therapist outside of the university for long-term treatment. Though I tell myself sometimes I feel like quitting, I decided to remain a full time student, declared my concentration, and completed my field placement application for 2021-2022 academic year. I’m on tract to graduating Spring 2022. Being blessed again, I was able to receive extensions on two of my finals and on my field placement assignments. I passed all my finals! I received all As and one B+. I ended the semester with a 3.6 GPA. Not too shabby (lol). I know my grandparents are very proud of me.

I’m proud of myself! I didn’t surrender and take the easy way out. I turned 24 on the 7th which is another milestone in my life. I was shown much love that exceeded my expectations. I spent the Christmas alone, but I made the best out of my situation & was still able to connect with my loved ones. Since the 18th I devoted my downtime, and overall winter break taking better care of myself. The last week I was home, I noticed that I’ve been severely neglecting myself and it was heavily damaging my well-being. I’m growing in setting and maintaining my boundaries, learning to be present with emotions & resting, being okay with saying “no” and not feeling guilty about it. The most important lesson is not overworking myself in every aspect of my life. I am no good to myself or others if I am completely burnt out. 

I am praying that 2021 isn’t a continuation of this year. Yet, 2020 has not been all too horrible. I have been able to grow in so many ways that I am becoming a better individual. Most important, I’m continuing to learn how to be a better person for myself!

[billehrman]

Challenging Times

Challenging Times

Markets like to climb walls of worry. Therefore, all markets are challenged today by the many issues we are dealing with such as the coronavirus, a more hawkish Fed, fiscal policy disarray, shortages, and supply line issues now hitting energy supply around the world.

The good news is that we are getting our arms around the coronavirus. Cases and death are falling, and it appears that we all will be vaccinated within six months, with amble booster shots available for all in 2022. We also expect that vaccinations for children will be approved within two months. The best news was that Merck has come up with an anti-viral pill that dramatically reduces hospitalizations and death rates. A game changer.  We, therefore, see growth in the world reaccelerating as we move through the fall into 2022. On the other hand, shortages, and supply line issues, including energy, are hitting production, and raising costs. These problems will not go away quickly, but we still assume that the worst will be behind us by the end of the winter, 2022, which will lead to higher production, reduced costs, and more robust margins/profitability.

While we remain favorably inclined to the financial markets over the next 12 to 24 months, we did make some midcourse corrections adding more financials and some energy companies to our portfolios, reducing a few high multiple technology companies as we expect a steepening yield curve and higher energy prices as we move through the winter months. Like most commodity companies, energy companies have maintained discipline in controlling capital spending, which will result in higher prices as demand grows and considerable increases in free cash flow. Saudi Arabia's huge energy company is public and is doing the same thing.

Our longer-term thesis of higher operating margins and profits remains intact, but there are challenges immediately ahead. We have entered a technological revolution with positive implications for years to come, and managements have learned to do more with less during the pandemic. Shortages and supply line issues will diminish as we move into the second half of 2022, which will boost production while enhancing profitability. And we have entered a period of stepped-up capital spending worldwide, not even including trillions of governments’ backed infrastructure programs on the horizon.  

We realize that corrections are challenging, but successful investors view them as opportunities. Patience is needed.  Even though the Fed sounds more hawkish, monetary policy will remain overly accommodative for another 18 months.  We expect fiscal support, too. The preconditions for a market top are not present, so we must all stay the course.

The key to a reacceleration of global growth remains to get our arms around the Delta variant. The news continues to get better by the week as the number of cases over the last two weeks has fallen by 26% domestically and 17% worldwide. The number of deaths continues to lag but improves, increasing only 2% domestically while declining 13% worldwide. More than 6.25 billion doses have been administered worldwide across 184 countries at a rate of 30.3 million doses daily. In the U.S., 392 million doses have been distributed at an average rate of 706,711 per day. At this pace, it will take less than six months to cover 75% of the total population, creating herd immunity. The vaccines are successful in reducing hospitalizations and deaths. It appears that the current wave has peaked here and abroad, setting up for a reacceleration of growth moving forward. We expect the FDA and CDC to approve vaccinations for children and booster shots for all before November. Pfizer, Moderna, and J&J will have more than enough doses available worldwide to handle all contingencies, which supports our belief that the virus will be in the rearview mirror by the spring of 2022, and we will get annual booster shots much as we do for the flu. And now we have Merck’s anti-viral pill on the horizon. What great news!

Powell and the Fed are facing some tough decisions as hiring has slowed while inflationary pressures have picked up due to shortages and supply line issues. Powell is under attack, too, for the lack of oversight over some of the members' financial transactions. Powell commented last week before Congress that supply line bottlenecks and other challenges related to the reopening of the economy have been larger and longer lasting than anticipated. “But they will abate, and as they do, inflation is expected to drop back toward the Fed’s goal of 2%.”

Odds favor that the Fed begins tapering by year-end and finish by the end of the third quarter of 2022. We do NOT expect any rate hikes until early 2023. All of this is naturally data-dependent, and the key will be growth in employment and the end of shortages and supply line issues which we expect to diminish by mid-2022.

What more can I say about our government’s ability to govern than it is a mess and dysfunctional. Without a traditional infrastructure bill that we all want, a budget resolution, and the debt limit extension. The progressive wing of the Democratic Party is holding Congress hostage, acknowledging that this is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to pass their social agenda. Fortunately, it cannot happen as is without the support of moderate Democrats who have held firm. Congress did pass a temporary bill to keep the government operating until December, but lots more needs to be done. Senator Manchin has publicly stated that he will not support a social infrastructure bill above $1.5 trillion, which would mean a more minor increase in individual and corporate tax rates, which is a good thing.

The economic picture has been a mixed bag as we are just putting the Delta variant in the rearview mirror. Unfortunately, shortages and supply line issues are holding back production while boosting inflationary pressures. It appears that areas hit most by the Delta pandemic are improving, such as travel and entertainment. The high-frequency data is getting better, too, pointing to more robust growth ahead. Interestingly, unemployment claims continue to rise, so to 362,000, a seven-week high, which suggests another disappointing employment number ahead, complicating the Fed’s next move as inflationary pressures remain strong even though they may be transitory. The production side continues to do as well as possible with all the constraints, with durable orders increasing 1.8%, shipments fell 0.5% due to shortages and supply-side issues, unfilled orders rose 1.0%, and inventories increased 0.8%. Home prices have increased an impressive 19% year over year, adding to record wealth for the U.S consumer. On the other hand, consumer confidence fell further in September to 109.3, not an alarming number; the present indication index fell to 143.4, pretty good too, and expectations declined to 86.6. Nevertheless, the U.S economy is on the cusp of reaccelerating, which will pick up steam even more as shortages and supply line issues diminish in 2022.

China, the second-largest economy globally, has slowed as evidenced by the decline in the September manufacturing PMI, which fell to 59.6 while the non-manufacturing PMI bounced back to 53.2. Interestingly, the Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI increased to 50.0. Goldman lowered its growth forecast for 2021 to 7.8% from 8.2%, we agree. China is suffering from shortages and supply line issues, especially energy, which is penalizing growth. The PBOC vows to ensure a “healthy” property market and protect homeowners. The central bank continues to inject billions of liquidity into the banking system. Evergrande sold an asset raising over a billion-dollar last week, and its bonds lifted. We expect the PBOC to lower reserve requirements and the government to announce a significant fiscal program to boost growth and employment.

The Eurozone economy is recovering to pre-pandemic levels as the number of Delta variant cases decline. The OECD weekly tracker of economic activity is improving as the labor market remains strong; job vacancies are at record highs; Europeans are spending less time at home and spending more out; use of public travel has surged, consumers are more confident, and flights are increasing. We are concerned about the high prices paid for energy as it could penalize growth in cold winter. Interest rates in the Eurozone, while still negative, have increased considerably as the reflation trade is alive and well as it is here too.

Vaccinations have increased considerably in India, and their economy is primed to accelerate. The services sector is resuming expansion, and manufacturing activity picked up growth in August. Japan elected a new Premier, Fumio Kishida, a former banker, who pledges to steer away from “neo-liberal” economic policies. Finally, Australia’s economy is picking up steam too.

We continue to expect improving growth here and abroad in 2022, supported by easy monetary and fiscal policies.

Investment Conclusions

Global economic growth is on the cusp of accelerating as we get our arms around the Delta variant. It will only get better in 2022 as shortages and supply line issues abate. Despite all the problems in 2021, S & P earnings and margins will reach record levels hitting over $210/share vs. $163/share in 2019. We expect further improvement to over $225/share in 2022, which may prove conservative as  shortages and supply problems ease. The real story will be cash flow generation. We expect record buybacks and dividend hikes in 2022, which will support the market. Our long-term improving margin thesis is alive and well. We expect operating margins to get close to 14% in 2023 vs. 11.5% in 2019 and earnings to reach nearly $240/share.

Monetary policy here and abroad will remain overly accommodative even if tapering begins before year-end. Tapering is NOT tightening. Fiscal policies will be supportive of growth too. We expect infrastructure spending to accelerate everywhere in 2022 on top of significant increases in capital expenditures.

We have adjusted our portfolios to reflect higher energy prices and a steeper yield curve as the Fed appears more hawkish.  We added energy and financials which sell below market multiples and have been out of favor for years, so we see an opportunity for revaluation on top of higher earnings, increased buybacks, and higher dividends.

Challenging times are opportunities for those willing to invest with a 12–24-month time frame. Sell when participants are overly optimistic but buy when pessimism is at high.

[thetaplowgroup]

The global pandemic has seen businesses affected across every sector, in all parts of the world. Taplow partners across the globe have combined to give you the local and regional insights. Key Findings • Companies - Companies are struggling with fast changing and fluid local and countrywide Government regulations. These changes are likely to pick up speed over the next 3 to 6 months, particularly in the northern hemisphere as the winter approaches. • Executives - Once again Working from Home (WFH) is becoming the norm, many creative orientated teams are suffering through lack of interaction. Executives are also grappling with the fast-evolving government regulations. • Employees - Mental health and welfare issues are coming to the fore as government services deal with the pandemic. WFH also brings loneliness and anxiety issues to the fore. AFRICA According to a survey by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Internet penetration in sub-Saharan Africa has grown tenfold, over the last 20 years. This means that sectors like ICT, finance and insurance, the public sector, education, and retail trade are indeed perfectly poised to grow swiftly as the pandemic drives digitization. South Africa The South African Government has confirmed another big bailout for the country's struggling national airline. Finance Minister Tito Mboweni said $640m (£492m) would enable South African Airways to implement a rescue plan. South Africa's President, Cyril Ramaphosa, has dismissed "alarmist rumours" about the country's possible return to stricter coronavirus regulations. The country has recorded a surge in Covid-19 infections over the last week, according to Health Minister Zweli Mkhize. GDP Growth Rate in South Africa averaged 2.11 percent from 1993 until 2020, and a record low of -51 percent in the second quarter of 2020. ASIA Asia is well placed for economic recovery compared to the rest of the world because mostly it has successfully contained the coronavirus, said Andrew Tilton, chief Asia economist at Goldman Sachs. Globally, he said momentum in the industrial sector remains good and he is “reasonably upbeat on the recovery going into 2021.” Australia Conditions in Australia continue to improve. In recent weeks, the major winter sporting codes held their finals competitions with crowd attendance. The various states in Australia are progressively easing restrictions on border crossings and interstate travel is becoming a reality again. A limited travel “bubble” has opened with New Zealand and positive discussions are being held regarding Singapore, Japan and Taiwan. Australia remains one of only nine countries around the world to hold a AAA credit rating from all three major credit rating agencies. Agriculture, mining, food, and fibre continue to provide export earnings for Australia while tourism is limited. The Australian Government’s “balance sheet was strong before the pandemic” and “Australia's economy is beginning to recover from its first recession in almost 30 years” and will according to the Australian Treasurer “rebound strongly once borders open”. There is still a long way to go in recovering from this health and economic crisis but the Australian economy is fighting back. Around 60 per cent of the 1.3 million people who lost their job or were stood down on zero hours in April are now back at work. For the next calendar year, the economy is forecasted to grow by 4.25 per cent, and unemployment to fall to 6.5 per cent by the June Quarter 2022. India India's economy picked up speed in September as a revival in demand and business activity helped drive the South Asian nation toward recovery from the pandemic-induced slump. India improved its ranking in World Bank's Doing Business Report by 14 spots over last year and was ranked 63 among 190 countries in the 2020 edition of the report. India's Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) equity inflow reached US$469.99 billion between April 2000 to March 2020, with maximum contribution from services, computer software and hardware, telecommunications, construction, trading, and automobiles. India adds 2,320 MW solar capacity in COVID-19-hit January-September period - From January to September, when the Covid pandemic disrupted the economy, India added 2,320 MW of solar energy power, official data indicates. Passenger vehicle sales, one of the key indicators of demand, rose 26.5 per cent in September from a year ago. Retail sales too showed signs of stabilizing, even though it was nearly 70 per cent below the year-ago level, according to ShopperTrak. US-based motorcycle manufacturer Harley-Davidson partnered with the country's largest two-wheeler manufacturer, Hero MotoCorp, to sell and service its products in the nation. Hero MotoCorp will produce and market a range of luxury motorcycles under the Harley-Davidson brand name as part of a licencing agreement. Tata Group to invest Rs5,000 crore to set up phone component plant for Apple in Tamil Nadu. Titan’s precision engineering division will provide expertise for project to be set up in Hosur industrial complex. The investment will be scaled up depending on the level of sourcing from the facility and could even touch Rs8,000 crore. Singapore Singapore’s unemployment rate rose to 3.6 per cent in September but at a slower rate compared to previous months, as the country reopened from a COVID-19-induced slowdown. The figures released on Friday (Oct 30) showed that the overall unemployment rate crept up by 0.2 percentage points from 3.4 per cent in August, which had already surpassed the record set during the global financial crisis in 2012. Officials warned that labour market conditions will stay soft amid the prolonged economic downturn. After more than 160 years in Singapore, Robinsons is closing its last two department stores at The Heeren and Raffles City Shopping Centre. This comes after several retail behemoths have announced store closures, both in and out of Singapore earlier this year. In April, Esprit announced it would close all 56 retail stores in Singapore, Malaysia, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau by the end of its financial year on Jun 30. In Singapore, the fashion retailer had 11 stores, including at ION Orchard, Paragon, Suntec City and Jewel Changi Airport. In October, H&M said it is planning to close hundreds of stores next year as COVID-19 crisis drove more shoppers online. Online shopping has become increasingly popular among consumers amid changing purchasing behaviour and COVID-19 restrictions. Demand for large-scale department store concepts has also weakened significantly, with official data showing a 35.3 per cent drop in retail sales at department stores in August. New Zealand The New Zealand Activity Index (NZAC) showed a recovery in September, with activity up 1.0% on September 2019. Most constituent indicators were above 2019 levels such as traffic movements, grid demand, and the performance of manufacturing index. Other indicators, such as business confidence and job advertisements, were still below last year’s levels. The number of people receiving income support (including the COVID-19 Income Relief Payment) had declined from August but was still high compared to September 2019. The NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) showed that business sentiment and activity indicators improved in the September quarter, reflecting a combination of fiscal support, pent-up demand, strong housing and construction activity and a pick-up in domestic tourism. NZIER report that the strong pipeline of Government construction work over the coming years is supporting a rebound in construction confidence, while services sector firms remain relatively cautious about the outlook, with a net 49% expecting worse outcomes ahead. Sentiment on the general business outlook has improved but remains deeply pessimistic with a net 39.4% of firms expecting the outlook to deteriorate. Employment expectations were positive, with net 10% of firms expecting more hires this quarter, and firms are experiencing increased difficulty in finding skilled labour. EUROPE The region’s predicted “2nd wave” of Covid19 is here as the winter starts. A number of key countries have announced either complete lockdown or regional lockdowns that will undoubtedly weaken the return to economic growth. The region is still several percentage points below pre Covid GDP. France The lockdown decided by the President came into force last Friday, October 30th, 2020 at 0:00 am. A containment intended to be more flexible than that of the spring. The head of Government, who justified the measures announced by the need to "face the violence of the second epidemic wave" of Covid-19, was accompanied by some of his ministers including Bruno Le Maire (economy) who detailed the business support plan estimated at €15 billion per month (€20 billion has been provided for in the amended finance law for 2020). New containment measures have forced the government to revise its GDP decline forecast for this year. The Minister of Economy indicated that the wealth produced in 2020 would fall by 11%. The problem is that the second wave of the epidemic and the new health measures will again have a negative impact on the end of the year. Bruno Le Maire said he thought that GDP would fall by 15% in November with the new containment. A slower pace than last spring when the GDP plunged by 30% during the two months of the first confinement but still impressive. French household consumption spending fell sharply in September after a small rise in August, due to a "significant drop" in purchases of manufactured goods and food. These expenses thus fell by 5.1% last month, after having risen by 2.2% in August. This decline in September was mainly due to a sharp drop (-6.8%) in purchases of manufactured goods, particularly textiles (-15.9% after +22.0% in August). The effects of the health and economic crisis are having a strong impact on the framework of labour market. The drop in recruitment could particularly affect young graduates, older workers and job-seeking managers. In the fourth quarter, companies could recruit between 37,000 and 47,000 managers, a volume that is however subject to caution given the uncertainties on the health front. Overall, over the year, the number of executive recruitments would be 30 to 40% lower than the record reached in 2019. The executive job market was experiencing steady growth and 281,300 executives were hired last year. The health and economic crisis have since changed this situation. Generally, more affected by episodes of crisis, young graduates find themselves in a more difficult position when senior managers in posts worry about their ability to bounce back if they lose their jobs. Jobseekers, on the other hand, face a major reduction in the number of jobs available on the managerial labour market. UK The UK Government has fragmented rules to the Covid19 2nd wave. Governments in Wales and Northern Ireland have instigated a “circuit breaker” complete lockdown. Scotland has introduced a regional lockdown and England is going into a month long lockdown as of 5th November. Recently there has been a levelling off of cases albeit from a high level. Government has instigated a range of support packages to try to stop mass redundancies. Currently unemployment stands at 4.5% but is predicted to climb to 8%+ by year-end. GDP growth fell by 20.4% in Q2 2020, it has recovered more than 50% of this loss. However growth is slowing and will be hampered by winter lockdowns. The service sector has seen the best recovery to date and manufacturing figures although fragile are in the positive. AMERICAS The Americas and particularly regions in USA are continuing to see uncertainty of the pandemic and elections create economic stagnation. Although the USA continues to show economic recovery, it is showing signs of slowing down and is not back to pre Covid levels. South America The continent is dealing with the pandemic from a weak economic base. Countries are adopting a variety of measures, but many are unable to effectively support businesses and this will no doubt lead to an increase in unemployment. Canada Canada has seen a partial lockdown in cities such as Toronto that has resulted in the number of cases reducing. The Canadian Government has a determined and focused program to significantly reduce the virus transmission. USA These last few weeks have been a mix of more opportunities and exceptional levels of competition on price and “showing leg”. We have had several new client initiatives, but none have yet signed a new agreement. Concern over hiring at the executive level during this period while layoffs are continuing is causing concern despite a perceived need to go forward on critical roles. In one recent case, our competition presented at least 10 prospective candidates with their proposal to prove they had a ready store of candidates. The client was not sophisticated enough to understand why that might be a problem. Others are just stalled as the fear is that income and earnings will be hurt further by recent market fluctuation. The national election is on November 3rd but if it is close there might be a legally contested outcome delaying the final result. President Trump has been very vocal about that. Normally a level of uncertainty in the world can help us to close deals. In this case, that is not happening and as our national leader chooses to exacerbate the impact of the virus and has issued rules impacting our health care and made a very controversial appointment to our Supreme Court causing even more uncertainty and disruption. We expect the softness and uncertainty to continue. We hope that you, your family, and work colleagues continue to stay healthy and safe. We at The Taplow Group are here to support you and your business through this crisis. We will be back with another update soon.

[sportticketexchange]

Euro 2021 - Years of nonstop football on the cards

Tuesday's choice to push back football's European Championship and Copa America by a year given the coronavirus pandemic was the greatest, however a long way from the remainder of numerous such calls to be made on the game's attacked schedule. Euro 2021 fans can book Denmark Vs Finland Tickets on our website on exclusively discounted prices.

European soccer's administering body Uefa, amid strain to discover time to finish the significant residential alliances that are for the most part right now suspended, declared that Euro 2020 was deferred by a year after a crisis video gathering with each of the 55 of its subsidiary national organizations.

It was the clearest initial step, which was immediately trailed by South American soccer body CONMEBOL's choice to delay the Copa America by a year, with the competition behind held at indistinguishable dates from the European titles from June 11-July 11 and highlighting many players situated in Europe.

Set to be held in 12 scenes, with the elimination rounds and last in London, setting up the new Euro 2021 will be a strategic and monetary test, however, one that Uefa is certain of taking away. Euro 2021 fans can book Denmark Euro Cup Tickets on our website on exclusively discounted prices.

"Uefa postponed a scope of alternatives with the goal that rivalries can complete this season securely, and I am glad for the reaction of my partners across European football," Uefa president Aleksander Ceferin said in the wake of reporting the deferment on Tuesday.

One year from now, be that as it may, is a long way from being the "neglected year" numerous individuals think. The ladies' European Championship is expected to be held in England in the pre-fall of 2021, while Fifa's redone Club World Cup in China is right now penciled in from June 17-July 4 and will highlight eight European club sides.

Fifa President Gianni Infantino gave an announcement on Tuesday saying that Fifa would take a gander at all the choices to help oblige the changes, including deferring the Club World Cup, conceivably to as late as 2023. Euro 2021 fans can book Finland Euro Cup Tickets on our website on exclusively discounted prices.

Extra conflicts are with the European Under-21 Championship, set for June in Slovenia and Hungary, and the Uefa Nations League finals. The Copa America in Argentina and Colombia, which was set to happen this late spring and highlights a large group of Europe-based players, followed Euro 2020 and was pushed back by a year.

The Gold Cup in the United States is additionally planned for the mid-year of 2021, with the Africa Cup of Nations in Cameroon occurring in January/February. Besides, European World Cup qualifying matches for Qatar 2022 are set to start in March 2021, and another two matchdays planned for June would be moved to clear a path for the Euros.

How these rivalries will interweave remains something for the overseeing bodies to grapple with, similar to the fate of this current season's club rivalries. Fifa's announcement on Tuesday said they were focused on working with everybody required to explore a route through the chaos.

The deferment of Euro 2020 does free the route for the finish from the postponed residential crusades and Uefa club rivalries, with association supervisors, resolved to carry their seasons to an end. In any case, there is, obviously, no conviction over when a resumption of any football may be conceivable.

Regardless of whether the 2019/20 season is finished by July or August, the accompanying effort would not have the option to begin until September or October to give players some rest. A poor start to the household season could make it hard for 2020/21 to finish up the European Championship, maybe constraining the route for a type of shortened season.

On the off chance that that didn't occur, there is the chance of practically persistent football occurring between this mid-year and the 2022 World Cup in Qatar. The competition is set to be arranged from November 21-December 18, the first occasion when it will be organized in the winter months.

We are offering Euro Cup Tickets so Football fans can get Euro 2021 Tickets through our trusted online ticketing market place. SportTicketExchange.com is the most reliable source to book Euro Cup 2021 tickets.

[screenandcinema]

State of the Slate

Five years ago this fall, Marvel Studios held a press conference where they announced the next phase of Marvel Cinematic Universe, nine films in total due to be released between 2016 and 2019. Since that momentous event, Marvel Studios has not announced a single new film pass 2019 and with their triumphant return to Hall H at San Diego Comic-Con after a one year absence set for tomorrow evening, it is likely that a new slate of films, encompassing Phase Four of the Marvel Cinematic Universe, is likely to be announced. To mark this occasion, I wanted to look back at that previously announced slate to grade Marvel’s ability to execute their vision and look forward to what movies will likely be coming from Marvel next before tomorrow’s event.

When it comes delivering on their initial promise, Marvel Studios did an impressively good job. Only one of the originally announced nine films didn’t happen, that being Inhumans - which instead was developed as an abysmal ABC television series that even I couldn’t get all the way through. Not to mention three films came out over the period in question that Marvel didn’t announce that day in October 2014, that being Spider-Man: Homecoming, Ant-Man and the Wasp, and Spider-Man: Far From Home. The lack of inclusion fo the Spider-Man films is easy to explain as at this point in 2014, Marvel Studios had yet to reach a deal with Sony to produce Spider-Man movies so there was no foresight to announce said films. And as for Ant-Man and the Wasp, the first Ant-Man film had yet to even be released at this point, so there was no way to know how well the film would fare. Also it likely that the plot of Avengers: Endgame, announced here as Avengers: Infinity War - Part II, was not fully fleshed out yet, so there was no way to know that a second Ant-Man film would be integral to developing that story-line for audiences. Release dates didn’t always hit their marks and films were shuffled around to make room for these three new unannounced films which is understandable. As a whole, the accuracy is impressive especially compared to Warner Bros. who announced a similar slate of ten DC films due for release between 2016 and 2020 and has so far released six of those films with the remaining four nowhere near hitting cinemas any time soon including Justice League Part Two. As well as the next wave of DC Film like Joker, Wonder Woman 1984, Birds of Prey, and The Batman not being on their radar at all in 2014.

What can we expect from the future of Marvel Studios when they put their forecasting to the test tomorrow? Aside from new details about Disney+ series like The Falcon and the Winter Soldier, WandaVision, and Loki, hopefully, Marvel Studios will fill the giant gaps in their future film release date. Currently, Marvel has planted their flag on multiple release dates in 2020, 2021, and 2022 with no films announced at all. Officially it is two dates in 2020 (May 1 and November 6), three dates in 2021 (February 12, May 7, and November 5), and three dates in 2022 (February 18, May 6, and July 29). I don’t think it is outside of the realm reasoning to expect Marvel to announce all eight of those movies tomorrow. But what eight will there be?

Some are easy to point out. A Black Widow prequel film has been filming in earlier this summer, so it is likely one of the 2020 films, if not the May 2020 one, since it would difficult for Marvel to have any other film ready in the less than 10 months between now and then. Directors Ryan Coogler, Scott Derrickson, and James Gunn have all signed on to helm sequels to their Marvel characters, Black Panther, Dr. Strange, and the Guardians of the Galaxy, respectively. A Black Panther sequel looks primed for that February 2021 date since the first film was released in that month in 2018. A second Doctor Strange is set to begin filming in early 2020, which feasible could be ready for November 2020, since the first one came out in November 2016, just under a year after filming had begun the previous October. Filming of a third Guardians of the Galaxy won’t begin until 2020 at the earliest due to Gunn’s commitment to The Suicide Squad with DC, so the May 2022 date seems like a likely destination for that film. Just last week, Thor: Ragnarok director Taika Waititi signed on to direct a fourth Thor film, and as there is no timetable yet, there is no real way to gauge where it would fall in the slate, but let’s pencil it in for November 2021 at this moment.

Let’s recap the predicted release dates at this point:

May 1, 2020 - Black Widow

November 6, 2020 - Doctor Strange 2

February 12, 2021 - Black Panther 2

May 7, 2021 - ?

November 5, 2021 - Thor 4

February 18, 2022 - ?

May 6, 2022 - Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 3

July 29, 2022 - ?

Before going into what new properties/characters will be joining the Marvel Cinematic Universe, there are other films in need of sequels. Captain Marvel grossed over $1.1 billion worldwide so there is no way that a sequel is not in the cards very soon. The same goes for a third Spider-Man film, but since Marvel only produces those films and they are released by Sony, it is likely that any future release date won’t be set by Marvel Studios and will instead come from Sony at another time (Sony will not have a presentation at Comic-Con this year). A third Ant-Man movie also seems highly likely, but it could be something left for 2023 and beyond. The same goes for newer properties coming into the Marvel Studios fold like Fantastic Four and X-Men after Disney purchase of 20th Century Fox. While an announcement of a new film with either set of characters would likely draw crazy enthusiasm in Hall H, both seem unlikely to rebooted after 2022, with Fantastic Four likely joining the MCU first. 

What does seem likely are the announcements of a Shang-Chi film, as well as a  The Eternals film as rumors of their casting and production have run rampant as of late. Both films already have directors hired apparently, and The Eternals is rumored to begin filming this fall. Those two films and a Captain Marvel sequel could easily fill the remaining gaps in the release date slate, but where would they fit it? It would seem unlikely that Marvel would launch a new property on the first Friday of May (Summer Movie Day), something that hasn't been done since 2011 and the first Thor. It is possible that building off the enthusiasm of Black Panther, that film’s sequel could be pushed to May, to leave the February date open for a new franchise. The spring has regularly been a jumping-off point for new MCU characters, with Black Panther and Captain Marvel being released then. With that in mind, The Eternal, set to film this fall, could slip into that February 2021 date, with Shang-Chi coming a year later in February 2022. A second Captain Marvel could look to that July 2022 or possibly a third Ant-Man (since all previous films have come out in July), if Marvel Studios feels the summer 2022 one-two punch of Captain Marvel and Guardians of the Galaxy is too cosmic for movie-goers.

With that in mind, here is the revised full predicted slate:

May 1, 2020 - Black Widow

November 6, 2020 - Doctor Strange 2

February 12, 2021 - The Eternals

May 7, 2021 - Black Panther 2

November 5, 2021 - Thor 4

February 18, 2022 - Shang-Chi

May 6, 2022 - Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 3

July 29, 2022 - Captain Marvel 2 or Ant-Man 3

This slate leaves out the possibility of Marvel Studios announcing a third Spider-Man, a giant surprise like Fantastic Four or a New Avengers, or a film scheduled for beyond 2022. But in the end, it is just a prediction, one that is likely very wrong. Be sure to keep an eye on official news out of the Marvel Studios event San Diego Comic-Con tomorrow and check back next week for a short commentary on all the things right with these predictions and (more likely) all the things wrong.

-MB-

[thegloober]

Mailbag: Third Base, Cessa, Murphy, Myers, Opener, Frazier

J.A. Happ will start ALDS Game One tomorrow night

Only nine questions in the mailbag this week because, frankly, the postseason is wearing me out over at CBS. The League Division Series round is always the busiest. There are many games! Anyway, send your questions to RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com and I’ll get to as many as I can.

Andujar. (Presswire)

Ben Doyle asks: I love Miguel Andujar, but what about using a third base opener in the Wild Card game? Start your favorite defensive third basemen, bat him 8th, and pinch-hit Andujar their very first at bat. Two or three innings of better defense, at the cost of slightly delaying Andujar’s plate appearances.

It’s an interesting idea. I’ve seen fans (of all teams) float similar ideas. Prior to the Wild Card Game, I saw some A’s fans suggest they should start Matt Joyce at catcher instead of Jonathan Lucroy, so in case Lucroy’s lineup spot came up in the first inning, they’d have a better hitter at the plate. Lucroy then goes in for defense in the bottom of the first regardless of whether Joyce hits. Also, in the NL, there’s talk that road teams should “start” the previous day’s starting pitcher, so if that lineup spot comes up in the top of the first you can pinch-hit without losing your actual starting pitcher. Whoever you’re planning to start that day then comes out of the bullpen for the bottom of the first.

Anyway, using a third base opener for Andujar in one specific game is an interesting idea. You couldn’t do it all the time. The problem here is roster space. The Yankees carried eight relievers and three bench players pretty much all season. Do you burn one of those three bench players for maybe two innings of defense at the start of the game? This seems like one of those things that would work much better in September or in a Wild Card Game with a deep bench. Start Neil Walker at third, then pinch-hit Miguel Andujar and get him his three at-bats, then put Adeiny Hechavarria in for defense late. Fun idea. I’m not sure how practical it is.

Greg asks: I noticed old friend Russell Martin is being paid 20 million next year the last year of his contract, while his AAV 16.4 million. If he were to be traded and cash was attached to the deal (similar to the McCann deal), could the AAV actually go into the negatives? Or does it just stop at 0.

It stops at zero. There was some confusion about this a few years ago. I don’t remember if it was the Vernon Wells trade or the Alfonso Soriano trade, but the math for one of those deals worked out in such a way that it appeared the Yankees would receive a credit against the luxury tax. It doesn’t work like that though. It just counted as zero against the luxury tax. Martin is pretty terrible nowadays. Soon-to-be 36-year-old catchers usually aren’t the most productive bunch. The Blue Jays would have to pay down a lot of his contract to get me interested. Pretty much all of it, in fact. And even then I’m not sure.

Paul asks: With strikeouts and home runs up (so fewer balls in play), and improved positioning, is defense less important than ever?

In theory, yes. There are fewer balls in play right now than ever before. This season 65.2% of all plate appearances resulted in a ball in play. Ten years ago it was 70.3%. The further back you go, the more balls in play. Fewer balls in play means fewer opportunities for the defense, so, in that sense, defense isn’t as important as it once was. That said, there are still a lot of balls in play. Also players are hitting the ball harder than ever before. They’re bigger and stronger and it shows. So there may be fewer balls in play, but the ball that are put in play are somewhat harder to defend. Defense will never not be important. It may be easier to hide a bad defender than ever before though.

Nicholas asks: What do you think Luis Cessa’s role will be next year. I believe he is out of options after this season.

Cessa will be out of options next season, meaning the Yankees can’t send him to Triple-A without putting him on waivers. Who knows, he might clear. I like Cessa more than most and, at this point, the Yankees should just stick him in short relief. One inning at a time and let him air it out. Starting and long relieving isn’t really working. Nothing that happens with Cessa this offseason would surprise me. Wouldn’t be surprised if he gets traded, or if he gets designated for assignment, or he stays with the Yankees and gets a look in Spring Training. Domingo German, Tommy Kahnle, and A.J. Cole will all be out of options next season and are kinda in the same boat. Something will have to give this winter.

Eric asks: Does Daniel Murphy make sense for the Yankees as a free agent option? You sign him to play first base and if the either Torres or Andujar have a sophomore slump, you would potentially move Murphy back to one of those positions.

He might. Murphy is worth a longer discussion outside a mailbag setting and after the postseason. At this point he’s a bat-only guy. He’s been a bad defensive player for years and now he’s barely mobile after microfracture knee surgery. Murphy can hit righties (130 wRC+) but not so much lefties (51 wRC+), he can’t run, and he can’t really play defense. He’ll turn 34 in April and we’re getting dangerously close to platoon DH status here. That said, Murphy can still hit righties and he never strikes out (11.4%), so there’s some utility here. Squint your eyes and you can see some versatility. If you’re willing to live with bad defense, yes, Murphy could be a fit next season.

Murphy. (Presswire)

Geoff asks: Do you think MLB might revisit the playoff structure after this season? Both the Yanks and the A’s finished well ahead of the Indians, yet they both have to play the WC while Cleveland gets an auto bid to the DS because their division is awful. The Indians got to repeatedly beat up on the worst teams in the AL, while the yanks and As had to deal with 2 other teams in their same division of Cleveland quality or better (Rays and Red Sox; Mariners and Astros).

Nah. MLB loves the current playoff format and, personally, I love the Wild Card Game. I hate when the Yankees have to play in it, but, overall, the Wild Card Game is a blast. Is it fair? No, not really. It’s not just the Yankees and Athletics this year either. The 98-win Pirates had to play the 97-win Cubs in the 2015 NL Wild Card Game. I am pro-Wild Card Game and, ideally, MLB would reseed everyone after the regular season. Five teams in each league make the postseason and the fourth and fifth best teams get the wild card spots regardless of division. That’d be great. That gives every team a reason to keep playing hard to rack up wins. The Indians were able to coast all September because their division was so bad. The winner-take-all Wild Card Game is a ratings bonanza and it’s not going away.

Justin asks: If the Padres make Wil Myers available should NYY be interested for him at 1B? What’s a comparable trade package?

The Padres are going to trade Myers soon, I think. He belongs at first base and they just locked up Eric Hosmer to that monster contract, so the position is blocked. Also, San Diego signed Myers to an extension a few years ago and look at his annual salaries:

2019: $5.5M

2020: $22.5M

2021: $22.5M

2022: $22.5M

2013: $20M club option ($1M buyout)

Yeah, I’d bet on Myers being moved before Opening Day 2020. Myers was the 2013 AL Rookie of the Year and I feel like we still don’t know who he is as a player. He hit .253/.318/.446 (107 wRC+) this year. He hit .243/.328/.464 (107 wRC+) last year. He’s a career .253/.328/.439 (109 wRC+) hitter in over 2,600 big league plate appearances. Is that it? Myers turns 28 in December. When’s the step forward coming? Or is this as good as it gets? I’m inclined to stay away here.

David asks: If the Yankees were to utilize openers next season, who on the current roster would be best? My guess would be that Betances would be best suited, have him pitch an inning exactly every other day (or two innings every three days). That way he would never lose his rhythm and have a set schedule.

Dellin Betances did jump out to me. It’ll depend what the rest of the bullpen looks like, of course, but sending Betances out there to face the other team’s best hitters in the first inning every other day or once every three days or whatever seems pretty appealing. That said, if Dellin is the team’s best reliever again like he was this season, it would be awfully tough for the Yankees to keep him away from high-leverage situations in the late innings.

Joe asks: Do you think Clint Frazier is a candidate for Arizona Fall League?

He has too much service time. My unofficial math has him at one year and 12 days of big league service time and the Arizona Fall League limit is one year. There are injury exemptions from time to time, usually for pitchers rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. If Clint could get an exemption, great! I’m not sure he’s healthy though. Frazier was shut down with his latest setback on September 5th. The Arizona Fall League season begins Tuesday. I’m not sure he can go from suffering a setback and being shut down to ready for game action in a month.

J.A. Happ will start ALDS Game One tomorrow night

Source: https://bloghyped.com/mailbag-third-base-cessa-murphy-myers-opener-frazier/