#the rest of it is just a big prediction of the 'moonlight - la la land' oscar debacle

[pepimeinrad]

beachtet mich gar nicht, ich flippe nur aus über das Plakat im Hintergrund, mit Ralf und Miri direkt nebeneinander (ein deutliches Zeichen dafür, dass der letzte gemeinsame Auftritt der beiden schon viel zu weit in der Vergangenheit liegt)

[angelic-mp4]

Predictions for Oscars 2019: Best Animated Feature, What to Expect, etc.:

INTRODUCTION:

Tomorrow is Oscars Night. Did you know that? If so, this is the reason why I’d be making a predictions post at the last minute for the Oscars, and what to expect. Not only that, but there will also be predictions for the award of Best Animated Feature. 

Last I checked, only the award of Best Picture had serious predictions. So why not? I said.

I’ll probably hook this post up with what to expect during the Oscars, too. But before I do that, even though I hadn’t watched any of the nominated movies in full, we have to check if one is most likely to win. Anyways, let’s get started with Best Animated Feature.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:

Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck It Ralph 2:

So... what about it, I guess? The movie is very interesting to see, especially its concept of the wonderful world of the internet. We are able to see references of all our favorite things and website, including the Disney Princesses, Ebay, those adorable kitten pictures, the Rickroll song, etc. Heck, we even see what the dark web is like!

In my opinion, it’s going to be expected to achieve many things in order to win, but it may come close to both the Incredibles 2 and Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, since they are more likely to win than surprising, this movie. Who knows? I’ll go ahead and call this movie the “Dark Horse” of the award.

Isle of Dogs:

Isle of Dogs is like an aesthetic paradise for those who see this movie. The animation is much more unique than most other animated movies, probably backing itself up with the more recent smash hits, including Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, most of the time. The story is also a very emotional tale between a pack of dogs and a young boy who meet each other in the middle of what is the grasslands of Japan.

Sadly, it may completely lose against other nominees, since it is like a love letter to Japanese cinema, with fluid plot-points, and such. This movie and Mirai are also the least likely to win, since both come from smaller animation studios, and are more “precise” with emotion than the other three.

Mirai:

This is a very imaginary story to see. It is about a young boy who realizes his own emotional thoughts as he comes to terms with his new baby sister, Mirai. Figurative imagery is used throughout the movie to tell the story of how he visits relatives through his imagination, and ultimately, he’ll create an adventure of his own so that he will eventually be able to cope with his life.

Along with Isle of Dogs, it may be the least likely to win. Even though it is able to do one thing right; the plot and the dazzlingly visuals that come with it, the other nominees do a range from two things, to almost everything right, from character development, to action sequences, to the story. Even though this is my personal choice, it may be overshadowed by the others, so watch out for that.

The Incredibles 2:

This was a sequel that everyone was waiting for, for 14 years. Now, we got it! The plot is basically what it seems. All Supers are called “illegal,” one of the Incredibles, who we all know as Elastigirl, is casted to expand the good name of the Supers, action-packed scenes are seen, and a well-prepared climax comes in, along with jokes the older audience is more likely to understand. Overall, this is like a cuisine for all fans of the Incredibles and Pixar themselves.

At first, when I seen this movie as one of the nominees, I instantly know this was going to win out of all of them, while as a rival against Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. Either this movie, or Spider-Verse will definitely take the cake for Best Animated Feature.

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse:

Finally, we have our last nominee. You know that this is another Spider-Man movie, but we say it as more unique than the rest. Here, we meet Miles Morales, who travels to different “spider-verses” so that a team will be formed. We also have our memorable Peter Parker, as the original Spider-Man, Spider-Noir, Peni Parker and the SP//dr robot, and Peter Porker, as Spider-Ham. Together, they can save the day.

This is also on par with the Incredibles 2 for the most likely to win. However, there is something that makes this movie unique, and that is the combination of 2D animation and 3D animation, along with the cool comical effects we can catch in the movie. We’ll have to see who wins.

WHAT TO EXPECT:

There are many things in the Oscars that could happen over time, and we want to make sure that everything goes as we planned. However, there are only three things for us to expect.

The Announcements:

This part of the Oscars is essential to many people watching this event, and may showcase many things to come. These range from unexpected movie trailer pop-ups, to other new events being shown at high quality standards for the first time.

Presenters:

We all need presenters to announce who is the winner of which. Even though there is a roster still being built up for them, the awards given to them for both rehearsal and the real deal is still unknown. We will to sit still and to just wait for the show tomorrow to see who’s presenting what.

Winners of Each Award:

There has to be a winner for each award presented. However, sometimes big things backfire in front of the audience and the viewers, especially for the winners. What if one presenter pulls a “La La Land/Moonlight” for example? What if technical difficulties suddenly happen during the full show? Who knows what happens? We just have to be prepared for the unexpected things... and winners, too.

OTHER PREDICTIONS:

These predictions don’t really need explanations, just what is to predict what will happen, from the show itself, to the commercial breaks.

Toy Story 4 will get its first full trailer aired during the Oscars, via a commercial break.

Remember Aladdin’s special sneak peek during the Grammys? Well, let’s just pray for Toy Story 4′s trailer tomorrow, during Oscars Night.

Either Roma, Black Panther or The Favourite will win the award for Best Picture.

No explanation needed.

An animated character (or two, if needed) will present one of the awards.

About this prediction, it’s either Disney or Pixar, or Sony Animation leading one of the awards with their memorable characters. The award that will be presented will either be Best Animated Short Film, or Best Animated Feature.

A “dark horse” nominee of either Best Actor or Best Actress will unexpectedly win.

Again, no explanation.

A emotional moment will occur. 

It may occur within the biggest award announcements, but I’m not entirely sure about that. Perhaps?

CONCLUSION:

Therefore, it shows that the Oscars will be both top-notch, in terms of the nominees and presenters roster, while surprising, regarding the winners. Let the show begin tomorrow, and I’ll give a big update the day after to make sure if anything happens.

[disappointingyet]

This is a list of my favourite films of the year. That sounds like a simple statement, but in some quarters the long-running arguments about what is and isn’t a film got very heated in 2017. Even the year bit of that can get very messy.

But for at least this one last time, I’m keeping things simple: these are the films I enjoyed most out of the ones that were released in UK cinemas in 2017.*

There were plenty of films I didn’t see: some I wanted to but didn’t get round to – Colossal is the one that stands out. Others I just wasn’t drawn to – Detroit, Dunkirk (give money to Christopher Nolan and he’ll only keep making movies) and the critically adored Call Me By Your Name (the super-annoying title probably didn’t help).

There were lots of movies I did see and like, though, and that’s what we’re here to talk about…

*This decision was made simpler because I didn’t love any of the films that Netflix streamed without even giving a token cinema release, which included Noah Baumbach’s The Meyerowitz Stories (New And Selected) and Sundance favourite I Don’t Feel At Home In This World Anymore. The best of the bunch was The Incredible Jessica James.

1. Manchester By The Sea

Back in October 2016, I wrote: ‘If a better film is released in the UK in 2017, I’ll be very impressed.’ Well, I have been impressed by the excellent movies below on this list, but none of them beat Manchester By The Sea as far as I’m concerned. In outline, it sounds like nothing special: a story of some grim stuff happening to a fairly ordinary family, in particular a bloke who likes to pick fights in bars and his teenage nephew. But writer-director Kenneth Lonergan turns the ingredients for a predictable drama into something very special, not least by lacing this grief-laden story with lots of (appropriately) funny moments.

Full review here

2. The Handmaiden

A lot of the films on this list are fairly light on plot, so if you want a movie with scheming, counter-scheming and deception, not to mention pretty costumes, sex, cherry blossoms, perviness (its 18 certificate is richly earned) plus differing Korean views of their Japanese occupiers, this is the one. It’s directed by Park Chan-wook, best known for Old Boy, and loosely based on Sarah Waters’ Victorian-set melodrama Fingersmith, which turns out to be perfectly suited to Korea in the 1930s.

Full review here

3. Certain Women

Resolutely low-key collection of three slightly overlapping short stories set in wintery Montana. It’s a character piece, with Laura Dern, Michelle Williams and (the excellent, previously little-known) Lily Gladstone leading each segment. Director Kelly Reichardt knows exactly who these women are, and how the place they live shapes them. It seems modest at first, but it stuck in my mind long after flashier films had faded away.

Full review here

4. Moonlight

So much of what I read about Moonlight made it sound so much less interesting than it is. Around awards time, you could have easily formed the impression it was a heart-tugging issue movie, not helped by the campaign to get Naomi Harris an Oscar (‘Look! Pretty woman getting grubby to play junkie skank!’)**

What makes it a remarkable film – and it is a remarkable film – are the extraordinary cinematography and the telling of the story via often fragmentary scenes, and how little is explained, at least until the much more conventional, even theatrical (and thus slightly disappointing) final segment. Great moviemaking is about the how, not the what.

Full review here

**The classic awards-season tendency to grade performances by perceived difficulty points led to people talking about Harris rather than the way better Janelle Monae.

5. The Happiest Day In The Life Of Olli Mäki

Lovely, bittersweet based-on-real-life tale of Mäki, a small man who was Finnish boxing’s big hope in the early 1960s. It’s not really a boxing film, more a story about two decent young people trying to work out what they want. Which probably doesn’t sound like the most gripping core of a film, but it works. My favourite Finnish film of the year, narrowly shading…

Full review here

6. The Other Side Of Hope

Why should social realism be the only way of looking at problems like the refugee crisis? Aki Kaurismäki brings his taste for dramatic lighting, deadpan acting and vintage rock’n’roll to this story of a young Syrian braving bureaucracy and street racism in Helsinki. Less funny than most Kaurismäki films, but I found it very moving.

Full review here

7. Spider-Man: Homecoming

I’ve had enough of super heroes on screen – Marvel’s The Defenders on Netflix was the last straw. I’m voting for a moratorium on them*** and gangsters. So it took a lot to persuade me to see yet another Spider-Man reboot. ‘Don’t think of it as an action movie, think of it as a high-school comedy,’ said my friend Jess, and she was right. It’s nimble and funny and doesn’t take itself too seriously – the best surprise of the year.

Full review here

***I’m totally prepared to believe that Thor: Ragnarok is enjoyable in a bonkers, proggy kind of way, but I’m not risking it. Too many people insisted Captain America: Civil War was good.

8. The Death Of Stalin

After dealing with the (by comparison small) monsters of the Blair era in The Thick Of It, Armando Iannucci turns to the worst – by at least one measure – men in history: Beria, Molotov and Uncle Joe himself. 

I don’t think by portraying the farcical nature of the days after Stalin’s death the film is disrespectful to all those who died. I think humour has always been part of how we confront the horror. 

The Death Of Stalin has the best ensemble cast of the year – Jeffrey Tambor as Malenkov, Steve Buscemi as Khrushchev, Jason Isaacs giving the performance of his career as Marshal Zhukov, and – best of all – Simon Russell Beale as Beria. And, crucially, it’s definitely a film, not a bit of TV that has snuck on to the big screen.

9. Daphne

Essentially, a classic US indie movie transplanted from Brooklyn to Walworth. The title character is a pretentious and self-centred 30-year-old failing to get her life together – she’s just like women I used to meet at parties in south London 10 or 15 years ago. That could make for a dull film, of course, but the writing, the feel for the place and Emily Beecham as Daphne make it funny and involving.

Full review here

10. After The Storm

Once promising writer with a gambling problem becomes low-rent PI and uses his new skills to keep tabs on his ex. If you think you can imagine how this film goes from that description, you’re probably miles from Hirokazu Kore-eda’s typically patient, generous-spirited and occasionally funny family drama.

Full review here

11. A Ghost Story

Or that one with the white-sheet-with-eye-holes phantom. A Ghost Story is definitely a film you either buy into or you don’t, an austere tale about grief and loss. I did, and found it sad and moving and pleasingly different. 

Full review here

12. Neruda

It’s a playful movie about a playful title character – the Chilean poet and dilettante politician during his dramatic time on the run from the authorities –  but Neruda has a melancholy underlying mood that rises to the surface as the film goes on. It’s a smart, complex and entertaining film.

Full review here

13. The Florida Project

A group of small kids living in a low-rent long-stay motel have adventures and misbehave a bit. And that’s mostly it, with a few dips into the struggles of the mother of one of the kids, plus a sense of the endless patience and generosity of spirit of the motel manager (Willem Dafoe, the sole big name in the cast). What’s impressive is the way Sean Baker maintains a tone that manages to dodge both ‘look at what grindingly terrible lives poor folk lead’ and being a whimsical adorable-kids-running-wild picture. It does drag a little about three quarters of the way in, but the ending pulls it back.

14. La La Land

First it was an instant masterpiece that was going to change the game, then it was a deflating bubble as the haters managed to shout louder than the lovers. So which take on this nostalgia-soaked showbiz musical do I agree with? Well, there are problems with the film – mostly to do with director Damien Chazelle’s continuing attempts to foist his rotten ideology of music on the rest of us via his movies – but I think the people who were swooning were closer to the truth than the raspberry blowers.  

Full review here

15. Lady Macbeth

Bracingly bleak and at times hard to watch, this is very much in the anti-heritage industry counter-tradition of British period dramas. It’s about the rebellion of a young woman against a grim arranged marriage in Victorian Yorkshire, a struggle that makes strange and grim turns. Unpleasant, but an impressive and memorable piece of filmmaking.

Full review here

16. Blade Of The Immortal

‘Blood-drenched’ would be an understatement when it comes to this gleefully violent supernatural samurai tale in which an almost unkillable ronin is hired by a young girl to revenge her father’s death. If it doesn’t match up to veteran director Takashi Miike’s kinetic 2010 masterpiece 13 Assassins, Blade Of The Immortal is still full of staggering set pieces. Not for the squeamish.

Full review here

17. I Am Not Your Negro

In a variant on the title of this blog, I’d describe this documentary as kind of unsatisfactory yet powerful. It’s got a curious premise: it’s an ‘adaptation’ of a book that was only vaguely started: James Baldwin’s look at the meaning of the lives and deaths of Medgar Evers, Malcolm X and Martin Luther King. 

The result is a slightly rambling wander through what Baldwin wrote and said about black lives in America. The clips of Baldwin on TV and at the Oxford Union are electrifying. The chunks of his writing are beautifully read by Samuel L Jackson in a warm, wise deep oak-aged voice than sounds precisely nothing like either Samuel L Jackson or James Baldwin. 

Dropped in around the place are news stills from the last couple of years by way of saying, ‘Yes, Obama made it to the presidency, but otherwise things are still fucked.’ That’s a bit clumsy and crude. What makes the film is Baldwin himself – a great writer (I’m still annoyed that someone nicked my copy of The Fire Next Time in 1991) but also a figure who confounds our condescension of past times: here was a black gay man who was an international public intellectual in the 1960s.

Best old films I saw on the big screen

Scarface

Not every rapper’s favourite movie – this is the terrific 1932 original, a ripped-from-the-headlines account of the rise of a ruthless Chicago gangster that’s as electrifyingly urgent as current organised-crime dramas are weary. 

Full review here

Un Flic

Jean-Pierre Melville, whose career stretched from the 1940s to ’70s, made some of my favourite films ever – Bob Le Flambeur, Le Samurai, Army Of The Shadows – and the BFI showed all of them in a splendid full retrospective this autumn. Of the ones I’d never seen before, my favourite was Un Flic, his last film, a bleak, minimalist film in which a laconic, sadistic cop (Alain Delon) slowly gets on the trail of a heist crew. Moody, stylised and very cool.

Full review here

The Cobweb

Over the top, and unashamedly so, Vincente Minnelli’s undervalued mid-’50s melodrama is set in a psychiatric clinic, has a great cast and a plot in which the choice of a set of curtains causes all manner of scheming, bitching and betrayal. 

Full review here

La Vérité

An uncharacteristically meaty role for Brigitte Bardot is at the centre of this courtroom drama from Henri-Georges Clouzot. BB plays a beatnik girl on trial for murder, but what made her do it and can a patriarchal justice system treat her fairly? I suspect this felt dated when it appeared in nouvelle vague-era Paris, but it seems pretty relevant now.

Full review here

Salesman

Extraordinary documentary about a group of travelling salesman doing their damnedest to flog absurdly overpriced Bibles to low income Catholics in a late 1960s US where the Age of Aquarius most definitely isn’t in effect.

Full review here

And DYB’s films of:

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

[secretlywritingstories]

Oscar Party Lulls Phil To Sleep & Makes Dan Shout | Phan Tweet Dabble

Summary: Having an Oscar Party with friends was tradition for Dan and Phil. Phil would fall asleep, which Dan would tease him about, and Dan would get so invested in the outcome and potentially need Phil to calm him down.

Word count: 1k

Genre: Domestic fluff

Warnings: Like one “swear” word

Read more from the collection of tweet-based Phan dabbles here

Based on the following two tweets:

Also available on AO3

27th of February 2017

Oscars night with friends both managed to be predictable and utterly outrageous.

It had become a tradition for Dan and Phil to try and view all the films nominated for Best Picture before Oscar night. It was fun to actually go out and see films in the cinemas, which they didn’t do too often during the rest of the year.

This year La La Land was a big fan favourite to sweep all the awards but to be honest; Dan liked Moonlight to win the biggest award more so than the Hollywood-focused film. It was on a different level and the issues brought up in the film was so damn important, even if he did still like La La Land.

He’d tweeted about his opinion yesterday and as expected a lot of people had shit to say to him about that. Dan was always hesitant to reveal his opinions but when he felt that he had a fully-informed one that he’d cultivated over time, he did want to share his point of view.

“Are you doing to stay awake the whole time this year?” Dan teased Phil once they all got situated on the sofa. Dan knew that Phil had fallen asleep every year they’d done this without fail.

“I’ll stable my eyes open if I have too, I’m not falling asleep this time,” Phil said confidently and even told Twitter the same later on.

The evening went by gradually and they were all having a nice time, even if you could see droopy faces around their small group. Phil was the worst of them all though and when Dan saw him pull the quilted blanket over the entirely of his body, Dan knew if was just a matter of time before Phil would be snoozing.

To Phil’s defence, it was during the somewhat boring bit in the middle of the night but still. As soon as Phil was out, Dan pulled out his phone to take a photo of him, taking his time and adding a few with his hand is shot, conveying a “seriously?”

Their friends didn’t even comment on it. They knew better than to question anything the two of them did to each other. Dan tweeted the photo as a reply to Phil’s vow to stay awake.

Dan shook Phil awake gently when they neared the final and most prestigious award. Phil stirred awake like a grumpy child and seemed quite annoyed when he realised that he’d failed to stay awake during the whole time.

It was with baited breath that all of them watched the screen as the presenter came onstage and waved around the fated envelope. The suspense seemed almost antagonising long and there was a bit of awkwardness onstage before someone finally called out La La Land.

Everyone in the little group in the flat across the pond sort of sank down and let disappointment wash over them. They’d all wanted Moonlight to win and Dan couldn’t help but feel a small flash of frustration at the result. He liked La La Land as a film, he really did, but it was so different from Moonlight, which brought up so many issues and he knew how much representation mattered and having that acknowledged would have been wonderful.

All the La La Land people made it up to the stage and then all shit broke loose. There had been a mistake. The wrong name had been read out loud. Moonlight had actually won.

Dan let out a strangled noise of surprise, only to start yelling before he’d realised that he was doing it. It was in the middle of the night but he’d lost his filter after having been awake for this many hours.

“WHAT!” he said several times as he stared in disbelief at the screen.

He felt Phil’s hand come up on his should, clearly trying to get him to quiet down. He was a bit too far-gone. Oh dear, this was not good. Poor presenter. Poor La La Land, even poor Moonlight, because now this would be all everyone would be talking about at the interviews afterwards and not actually why the film was so incredible.

“Dan…” Phil’s voice called out, sleepiness lost from it now, as he tightened the grip on Dan’s shoulder.

Dan took a deep breath and sat back down on the sofa. He hadn’t even realised that he’d stood up in the first place.

“What a mess,” Dan whispered and shook his head and finally glanced over at his friends and Phil. “Sorry,” he then muttered.

“Hey… now me falling asleep doesn’t seem like such a big fail, right?” Phil joked and nudged Dan, clearly trying to get him to properly speak and not disappear into his own head like he had a tendency to do.

“No, you’re right about that,” Dan said, in a natural volume now. “But I did tweet a photo of you sleeping…”

“What? Dan!” Phil complained. “We’re back to taking photos of each other sleeping?”

Like they had ever stopped, Dan thought.

“I needed to show the Internet that even with eyelids stapled open, you can still fall asleep. What were you planning on lying to them and saying that you didn’t fall asleep?”

Chatting with Phil about their domestic events always calmed him down.

“I don’t lie to them, so I wouldn’t but really this photo?” Phil said and shoved his phone in Dan’s face. He’d evidently found the tweet pretty quickly.

“You brought that on yourself, Phil.”

“What are you? A child at a sleepover?” Phil joked and his voice was soft and teasing rather than angry. “At least you didn’t draw a willy on my face.”

Dan burst out laughing uncontrollably until Phil shushed him yet again.

“You’re being loud again!” Phil hissed and glanced at the walls as if he could see through them to witness angry neighbours glaring at Dan.

“You fall asleep and I’m loud, Phil. Classic Oscar’s night.”

*****************

A/N: When I proof-read this one, it felt slightly off-centre but I hope you liked it anyway. But Dan’s response tweet is too adorable for me not to post a dabble about it. As always any feedback is highly appreciated. 

Read more from the collection of tweet-based Phan dabbles here

[deeeepsteep]

As usual I will be liveblogging the Oscars tonight

In case anyone cares here are my Oscars predictions/people I want to win in the most interesting categories

Read more because it’s pretty lengthy - though I only go into detail with the top 3 categories and I just list the rest because I got lazy lmao

Also there are spoilers in this so yeah if you planned on watching any of the movies nominated tonight beware

Best Picture Who I think will win: La La Land As much as I loved the movie, I honestly don’t think it has Best Picture potential. The story was okay at best, and there are aspects of the story that rub people the wrong way (A white pianist acting like the messiah of jazz music, for instance). 

BUT. But.

The Academy is a sucker for movies that are based on show business and Hollywood (Ironic, I know), which is why I think it has an edge over the other nominees - which is disappointing because the movie I really want winning Best Picture deserves it more.

Who I want to win: Moonlight This movie blew me away. The cinematography, the story, the characters, the editing, everything. It’s a slow burn, but rightfully so - and c’mon, it’s a movie about a queer black male struggling to accept his identity while also dealing with a shitty family situation and an even shittier social life. It deserves recognition for that alone.

But...I don’t think it’s going to win Best Picture, even though I really want it to. Why? Because it’s the goddamn Oscars. “Oscars So White” may not be as prevalent in the list of nominees but I can guarantee you it’ll make a comeback once they start announcing winners.

Best Actor Who I think will win: Denzel Washington He already nabbed an Oscar for Training Day and a second one for Glory (Both great movies, by the way), but goddamn if you saw Fences you’d probably agree with me when I say that he deserves a third one. He plays a very unlikeable character in the movie, but he does it so well that you can’t help but like him. The typical “Hard guy with a hard past” trope is a little overplayed nowadays so the market’s a bit saturated for that, meaning that there are very few people who can pull off the role. I believe he first played Troy Maxson in the play before he played him in the movie too. Oh, also, he directed the movie adaptation of Fences, so that’s another reason why I think he’ll win it.

Who I want to win: Ryan Gosling I want him to win primarily because he learned how to play jazz piano in three months. THREE MONTHS. That is not a lot of time, especially when you’re talking film. Also, have you heard jazz piano? It is NOT easy to play. Ryan didn’t use any doubles when they filmed the scenes where Sebastian is playing - all of that was him.

Best Actress Who I think will win: Emma Stone She won the Golden Globe award, the Screen Actors Guild award, the Australian Academy of Cinema and Television Arts award, the British Academy Film award, and a few awards from several critics’ associations for her role as Mia in La La Land. If she doesn’t win tonight I think everyone will be surprised.

Who I want to win: Emma Stone I can’t disagree with critics. She was amazing in La La Land - her performance was way more impactful than Ryan Gosling’s. She’s not a stranger to singing and dancing - she’s done both plenty of times in both film and Broadway - but I think this is the first time I’ve seen her sing and dance, and I was blown away by how talented she was.

I really wanted her to win last year, when she was nominated for her role in Birdman - I thought she was stellar there too. I didn’t think she would’ve been able to top her performance there, but then La La Land happened lmao

Best Supporting Actor Who I think will win: Mahershala Ali Who I want to win: Mahershala Ali He had a small but very impactful role in Moonlight. You could feel his characters’ presence long after he’s gone, and that’s something not many actors are able to achieve.

Honourable mention: Dev Patel He made me almost cry in Lion. The only movie I ever cried watching was A.I. That’s a big deal.

Best Supporting Actress Who I think will win: Viola Davis Who I want to win: Viola Davis

Her character in Fences was my favourite in the film. Troy might have been through some shit but his wife, Rose, had to put up with his grumpy ass for 15 years - and on top of that she put up with him cheating on her and raising the child he fathered out of his affair. The strength and tenacity Davis channeled through her portrayal of Rose earned her several awards - the Black Reel, the British Academy Film award, the Critics’ Choice, the Golden Globe, and the Screen Actors Guild, just to name a few.

Best Animated Feature Who I think will win: Zootopia Who I want to win: Moana

I get that Zootopia is basically “Racism 101″ for kids, but the fact that a movie about animals is getting more accolades than a movie about a PoC girl and Polynesian culture is kind of ridiculous to me.

Of course, Moana shouldn’t win just because it’s about a PoC girl and Polynesian culture, but c’mon...it was a good movie.

That being said, Kubo and the Two Strings is an honourable mention. I loved the art style, but we all know by now that Disney dominates the Animated Feature category even when there are better movies in the category.

Cinematography: Who I think will win: La La Land Who I want to win: La La Land

I loved the composition of this film. The colours, the camera work, the lighting, the framework...everything was just seamless and so well put together. It really captured the “la la land” feeling of La La Land, if that makes sense. The movie really wanted to make you feel like LA and Hollywood are these surreal, faraway dreamscapes that only few people are lucky enough to experience - and they captured that perfectly.

Costume Design Who I think will win: La La Land Who I want to win: Jackie

Jackie Kennedy was known for her fashion style. She became a frigging fashion icon. Jackie did an awesome job recreating her style - and Natalie Portman wore them perfectly.

But...La La Land won in this category before, for some reason, and I don’t really know why. Nothing about the costumes were particularly striking, nor did they have much significance.

Directing Who I think will win: La La Land Who I want to win: Moonlight

When in doubt, choose La La Land. I’m pretty sure that’s the mindset of every panel of judges or critics or whatever they’re called for every award show...thing. Can you believe this movie has 14 nominations for the Oscars this year - the only other movies that have been nominated that many times for the Oscars are fucking Titanic and All About Eve.

Moonlight deserves more recognition, which is why I want it to win in this category.

Film Editing Who I think will win: La La Land Who I want to win: La La Land

I’ve already mentioned before that I loved the composition of this movie, so yeah.

Best Original Score Who I think will win: La La Land Who I want to win: La La Land

The movie’s music is a lot better than the actual movie. I bought the CD and the special edition blue vinyl LP. That’s how much I love it.

Best Original Song Who I think will win: City of Stars from La La Land Who I want to win: City of Stars from La La Land

City of Stars has been stuck in my head since I first saw the movie - and I saw this movie two months ago.

An honourable mention would be the other La La Land song nominated in this category: “Audition”. Emma Stone’s singing prowess really shines through in it. 

[ryanjdonovan]

Donovan's Oscar Prognostication 2017

What can we expect at the Oscars this year?  I'm going to go out on a limb and say that you can expect a lot of sociopolitical commentary from underqualified celebrities.  If you want to know what else to expect (like who will win), read on for my 18th annual Oscar predictions.  

BEST PICTURE:

SHOULD WIN:  Hell Or High Water WILL WIN:  La La Land GLORIOUSLY OMITTED:  Sully INGLORIOUSLY SNUBBED:  The Nice Guys

Do I think La La Land SHOULD win Best Picture?  Let me put it this way: It's a movie about idiots chasing idiot dreams for idiot reasons with idiot excuses, spending time with other like-minded idiots.  If I ran the marketing campaign, my tagline on the poster would be: "Everybody has dreams.  Nobody achieves them.  Grow up." I think the audience's opinions of the characters in the film can be categorized into 3 groups:  1) Struggling actors or musicians, who are gushing, "These people capture EXACTLY why I want to be an actor/musician, including all the passion and heartbreak!"  2) Actors or musicians who have actually made it, who are thinking, "These people are morons."  3) Adults with real responsibilities, who are like, "Are you f---ing kidding me with these people?"  I couldn't help but think of Judge Smails: "Well, the world needs ditch-diggers too."  Let's just say, I'm clearly not the target audience.  If you want a movie with a similar theme, stronger chemistry, and frankly, better music, watch 500 Days Of Summer.  So, the more appropriate question: Do I think La La Land WILL win Best Picture?  Almost undoubtedly.  Hollywood is practically falling all over itself to congratulate this film… which is, of course, essentially congratulating itself.  The fact that it tied the record for most Oscar nominations ever (14!) is absurd and obscene.  Between the critical praise, huge box office take, cleaning up precursor awards, and being one of the few nominees that's not cripplingly depressing, it's a pretty safe bet to win the big prize.  (Incidentally, the biggest question of all after seeing the film was: How old is Tom Everett Scott??)

Most people will tell you that there are two films with a (small) chance to knock out La La Land for Best Picture: Moonlight and Manchester By The Sea.  This is not true.  There is a film with a chance to pull an upset, but it's the underdog about underdogs: Hidden Figures.  How could this happen?  For starters, La La Land wasn't nominated for a Screen Actors Guild Best Cast award, and only one other film in that situation has ever gone on to win the Oscar for Best Picture (Braveheart, in 1995) - so history is not on its side.  And when there IS an upset for Best Picture, it's often the SAG Cast award that portends it (remember Spotlight, Crash, or Shakespeare In Love?).  And this year's SAG Cast winner?  Hidden Figures.  (On the other hand, the SAG Cast winner only goes on to win the Oscar about half the time.)  Most importantly, Hidden Figures is gaining steam at the right time: It's been universally praised by reviewers and audiences, it's the highest grossing of all the nominees, and it's a triumphant, crowd-pleasing story that stands out against most of the other films which are, put simply, huge bummers.  Detractors argue that it's a little predictable and safe, leans heavily on social context, borrows too liberally from the Apollo 13 playbook, and doesn't have a whole lot of bite to it.  But given the harshness of the competition, these may not be such negative things.  It's not a bad time for a feel-good, heroic, unifying, patriotic, adversity-conquering, well-crafted story based on true events.  It may just be enough to steal the Oscar.    

The most fashionable upset pick by the pundits is Moonlight.  In my opinion, it's a strong film, but it's too enigmatic to be a serious threat for Best Picture (I think it will have to settle for an Acting award and a Screenplay award).  It's an existential puzzle box - it poses a lot of questions, but doesn't necessarily answer many.  It gives us a sense of the main character, a hint, but leaves a lot up to possibility.  It ultimately leaves us wanting more - which is not necessarily a bad thing, but it doesn't help if we are looking for a sense of closure or finality to the story.  (It also doesn't help that the main boy in the story endures more horrible things than any child ever should.)  The main question the film poses to the boy (and to everyone) is: What makes a person who they are?  And beyond that, it asks: Is a person a product of their environment?  Their relationships?  What they say?  What they don't say?  Their actions?  If it's none of these things (or all of these things), then how is a person supposed to know who they truly are?  Is it one thing, or many things?  Does it evolve, or do they always have one constant true self?  Is it even possible to know?  Moonlight presents us with a main character who's trying to answer all these questions, but doesn't say much at all.  It's an interesting choice, and a maddening one.  We get a sense that maybe at the end he finally knows the answers to the questions, but he's not about to tell us.  (And if YOU can answer any of these big questions, then congratulations, you've solved humanity.)

The other film favored by a few critics is Manchester By The Sea - the one where the filmmaker decided, "I'm going to make a movie about the most depressing family ever."  While it's competent and convincingly acted, it's hard to get real enjoyment out of it.  There are some moments of lightness and humor (which are dearly welcome), but it basically starts with melancholy, takes a couple dips, takes a huge dive in the middle, and then only mildly recovers.  What makes it worse is that you expect that the story will go in a fulfilling direction, but it never does.  There's a certain sense of 'Jeeezus, what now?' throughout the movie.  At a certain point, it's like, Are there any more terrible things that could possibly happen to this family?  Do they have a dog that will get mutilated by a coyote or something?  The 'Life is messy' rationale in movies only goes so far with me.  And more than that, I think there are a few cases where the script is overly-manipulative, and doesn't feel true to the story.  Ultimately, I came away thinking: I bet the town would be gorgeous if it wasn't in a Kenneth Lonergan movie, and apparently "F-ck you" is how you say "I'm so sorry for your loss" in Massachusetts.

My personal choice for Best Picture would be Hell Or High Water, the modern Western that came out of nowhere.  Most of the film's critical praise is for taking a tired, hackneyed genre and invigorating it in a slick new way.  I fully agree, but I'd take it a couple steps further.  It makes what is ostensibly a farcical adventure of epically bad decision-making seem sympathetic and understandable, if not downright inevitable.  Bottom line, it's a fun ride: good old-fashioned cops and robbers, where the bad guys are good and the good guys are interesting.  I'll get more into this film, and my other favorite, Arrival, in the other categories.  

Shane Black has mastered a lot of things, first as a screenwriter, now as a director: seedy faux-glam noir, slick one-liners, overconfident buffoons, the LA crime caper, idiot heroes and the straight players who balance them out, and most of all, fun movies.  His type of humor is literally one of the reasons why I watch movies.  In a perfect world, the release of each of his new movies would be a highly-anticipated event.  (We can probably leave Iron Man 3 out of this conversation; while it was a solid action pic and had some of Black's signature irreverence, it was squarely a studio-machine product, not an auteur piece.)  Unfortunately, Black has somehow been relegated to being an afterthought compared to mainstream Hollywood.  He's not a guy that fits the mainstream studio mold, he's too offbeat and puckish for mega-hits, and he's too "big idea" for the indie world.  In my aforementioned perfect world, Black's film The Nice Guys would have been nominated for Best Picture (among other categories).  The excellent comedy about a pair of mismatched, bumbling, low-rent private investigators tweaks convention, stereotypes, and tropes.  It generally eschews sentimentality, except for a few key moments (that feel earned).  Unfortunately, it got clobbered at the Box Office.  Maybe Black can boost his career by trimming budgets; The Nice Guys was a pricy $50 million, but it probably didn't have to cost that much.  (On the other hand, would it have been nearly as good for $2 million starring Mark Duplass and Jake Johnson?  Definitely not.)  So what can we expect the reception to be for his upcoming Predator film?  In this imperfect world, probably indifference.

Surprised not to see Star Wars in my Best Picture conversation?  Oh, just wait.  I was sooooo tempted.  I kept it confined to the Adapted Screenplay category, since it was such a surprisingly strong story.  But don't worry, there's going to be a new Star Wars movie literally every year for the rest of eternity, so I'm sure it will make it back into this category in future articles.  

For my Gloriously Omitted choice, I've gotta pick on Sully, Clint Eastwood's latest.  Eastwood is operating at a level where every film he releases in the fall gets serious Oscar consideration.  Sully is no exception, but it turned out to be a bit of a clunker, story-wise.  It's thrilling, to be sure, but it simply isn't enough to carry a complete movie (especially considering the real 'Miracle on the Hudson' events just took place a mere 8 years ago).  It should have been a 1-hour TV special (even allowing for 15 minutes of commercials).  An attempt at a narrative is framed around the investigation by the National Transportation Safety Board - manufactured drama for the sake of the movie.  The problem is that there is no real opposition - the investigation into the pilot's decision-making is illogical and unrealistic, and we know how it's going to play out - so the film forces some ordinarily talented actors to ham it up as 'villains'.  (By comparison, the movie Flight used a similar construct, but was much more effective.  This is partly because it was completely fiction - we didn't know how things would turn out - and partly because the protagonist was hiding something critical from investigators - creating dramatic tension and conflict… things missing from Sully that are, you know, essential to a movie).  On the plus side, I will give Eastwood a lot of credit for his staging the water landing itself - that is the part of the movie worth watching.  The splashdown is an absolute dynamo.  The sequence is completely riveting, and emotional in a way I was not expecting.  We know exactly how the events will turn out, but by putting us right in the action - giving us the perspectives of the people involved and on the periphery - the stakes become huge.  That's a really difficult thing to pull off.  (Eastwood also borrowed from the Apollo 13 playbook - a common theme this year.  Maybe that's why he cast Tom Hanks?)  Unfortunately, I only have one takeaway from the film: Landing an airplane on the water doesn't look that hard.  

BEST ACTOR:

SHOULD WIN:  Denzel Washington (Fences) WILL WIN:  Denzel Washington (Fences) GLORIOUSLY OMITTED:  Tom Hanks (Sully) INGLORIOUSLY SNUBBED:  Ryan Gosling (The Nice Guys)

This category promises to be the most dramatic of the evening.  It could come down to a coin flip between Denzel Washington (for Fences) and Casey Affleck (for Manchester By The Sea).  They've pretty much split the run-up awards, with Washington claiming the most important - the Screen Actors Guild award - and Affleck making off with secondary prizes like the Golden Globe, Critics' Choice and BAFTA.  As a performer and as a person, Affleck is polarizing, while Washington is dependable.  Comparatively, fewer people absolutely love Washington's performance; but also, fewer people loathe it.  Smaller camps of passionate fans (think: a few 1st place votes) tend to beat out the larger warm-ish ones (think: a bunch of 2nd place votes) during the nomination process due to Academy rules, but it tips the other way when it comes to the actual winners.  (That's how Viggo Mortensen snuck into this race with Captain Fantastic, but he has no shot at winning.)

So how much of the vote will they get?  With Affleck, one challenge will be to decide how much of his performance is "acting", and how much is coincidence that he plays a character with the same mush-mouthed, dopey, mopey aloofness that he has.  Personally, I don't think it's the best performance of the year, but I'll concede it's a good one - it may not be riveting, but it feels authentic and earned.  The other (and possibly bigger) challenge is if voters decide to judge Affleck the man.  In the film, his character says that he's "just the backup"; funny, that's exactly how the world feels about Ben Affleck's little brother in real life.  More importantly to his voting peers, there are the harassment allegations from his train wreck of a project with Joaquin Phoenix, I'm Still Here.  (By the way, how did Phoenix manage to emerge from that catastrophe with his reputation unscathed?)  So how did I reconcile seeing (and supporting) Affleck's film in light of the accusations against him?  Well, I watched it… but I didn't pay for it.  

With Washington, there really are no challenges.  He is, predictably, fantastic.  But that's the catch: "predictably".  With his reputation and resume, nobody is surprised (like they are with Affleck) that he hits a home run.  And more than that, he's ALREADY been great in this role - on Broadway, where he won a Tony a few years ago.  Voters will consider if there's a need to reward him for more of the same.  Putting the voting into larger context, a win for Washington would put him in the exclusive 3-Oscars Club - becoming the 7th actor, joining recent inductees Meryl Streep and Daniel-Day Lewis.  Many voters will agree that it would be a fitting honor for one of the finest actors of our time.  On top of that, Washington also directed and produced Fences.  The Academy loves a multi-hyphenate, and members that think he deserved a nomination for Best Director won't hesitate to vote for him here.  

So for my prediction of who Will Win, I think the SAG win tips the scales slightly in Washington's favor.  It shows he has the support of actors - it's the biggest branch of the Academy, and the one that will probably judge Affleck's accusations most harshly.  And for my Should Win, I'm also going with Washington, because I can't bear to imagine a world where Affleck has an Oscar and Gary Oldman doesn't.  (And not for nothing, but have you seen Affleck recently?  He actually LOOKS like Joaquin Phoenix in I'm Still Here.  Maybe… a sequel?  One can dream.)

Ryan Gosling deserves to be nominated in this category… but for The Nice Guys, not La La Land.  (If you're only going to see one of those movies, do yourself a favor and skip La La Land.  If you're going to see both of those movies… watch The Nice Guys twice.)  You would think that in a musical, the male lead should be able to, you know, sing.  The song 'City Of Stars' may well win Best Song, but criminy, couldn't they get Marni Nixon to dub his vocals?  "I thought he sounded pretty good," sniffed Russell Crowe, still believing his agent's high praise of his singing in Les Miserables.  (Come to think of it, Crowe and Gosling really should have had a duet in The Nice Guys.)  And while we're being honest, I think the best music in La La Land is the cheesy 80s music that's meant to represent the antithesis of the goodness and purity of jazz.  After sitting through some snoozy musical numbers, I perked up when Emma Stone's character jokingly requested that Gosling's band play 'I Ran (So Far Away)' by Flock Of Seagulls: "Aw, hell yeah!  Here's where the movie gets good!"

Andrew Garfield is an intriguing inclusion in this category, scoring his first nomination for Hacksaw Ridge.  After emerging about 10 years ago, I figured he'd be an award-season candidate, but he's taken a more circuitous route than I expected.  I thought he'd be a bit more independent-minded, eschewing quantity for quality and aiming for smaller and smarter films… but hey, I suppose money is nice, too.  With Hacksaw Ridge (and the less-admired but no less prestigious Silence from Martin Scorsese) he at least seems to be half-way headed in that direction, following a natural trajectory from other winning films like The Social Network and 99 Homes.  Just please, no more franchises.  (And if you want to see a film that foretold Garfield's Oscar-caliber abilities, skip the Spider-Man movies and watch Boy A - in short, he's remarkable.)

For my Omitted choice… Playing the titular role in Sully, Tom Hanks is in a familiar bind: He's excellent, but not excellent by Tom Hanks' standards.  To his credit, he plays Captain Sullenberger (he of the heroic airplane landing on the Hudson River) in a fairly realistic, understated way.  Unfortunately, the performance underwhelms, and doesn't seem terribly different from Hanks himself.  The film tries to play up some of his inner turmoil - grappling with fame and family troubles - but ultimately he's a character that doesn't say much, has almost no dynamism or magnetism, and reacts to his own heroism with a shrug.   Scenery, un-chewed.  (By the way, the film was much more enjoyable when I imagined Sully played by Will Ferrell as Ron Burgundy.  I'm getting a Kickstarter campaign to make it happen.  Who's in?)

BEST ACTRESS:

SHOULD WIN:  Natalie Portman (Jackie) WILL WIN:  Emma Stone (La La Land) GLORIOUSLY OMITTED:  Marion Cotillard (Allied) INGLORIOUSLY SNUBBED:  Amy Adams (Arrival)

If only the Best Actress race was as unpredictable as the Actor race.  While it's not a lock, Emma Stone appears to be pulling away.  If there was a still a chance for Natalie Portman or Isabelle Huppert to surpass Stone, Stone's victory at the SAG Awards pretty much ended it.  It doesn't hurt that Stone's personality is custom-made for the Oscar press circuit.  Much like Jennifer Lawrence, she comes off as talented, confident, intelligent, and beautiful, but also disarming, funny, self-deprecating, and most importantly, cool - to both women and men.  In short, she's easy to root for.  (Lip Sync Battle, anyone?)  Hollywood voters lap up her role as an earnest actress struggling to make it while remaining true to herself.  Female voters can relate to Stone's character much more than they can to Jackie Kennedy.  And male voters can imagine her as the fun, unpretentious girlfriend or the easy-going, sarcastic friend.  (Portman is insanely talented, but nobody would ever believe her being amused by Jonah Hill's dick jokes.)

Not to be dismissive of Stone's performance in La La Land (don't worry, I'm plenty dismissive of the film itself), but her triumph here will be in part due to fortuitous circumstances.  She can thank her lucky City Of Stars that Amy Adams (Arrival) or Annette Bening (20th Century Women) aren't nominated - either one of them would have been a clear sentimental favorite.  With 5 previous nominations for Adams and 4 for Bening (and probably a bunch of 2nd-place finishes), voters would be anxious to reward either of them.  

Stone's slate of competitors bode well for her, too.  Her presumptive biggest threat, Portman (for Jackie), already won an Oscar while pregnant , like she is now.  Doesn't it seem like accepting an Oscar in a maternity gown is probably a once-in-a-lifetime thing?   Huppert (the Meryl Streep of the French Cesar awards) scored her first Oscar nomination this year for Elle, and like Charlotte Rampling last year, it feels like the nomination was a lifetime achievement nod of sorts for decades of admired work in foreign films.  (I give Huppert extra credit for starring in the underappreciated I <HEART> Huckabees.)  Ruth Negga, starring in Loving, is a relative unknown (outside of the big Preacher fans out there), and her nomination in itself was a bit of a surprise.  

And then there's Meryl herself.  Does anybody care less about Meryl Streep winning than Meryl Streep?  In her 20th (!) trip to the Oscars, she's probably bored, especially because she knows she's going to lose.  (I mean, despite being so celebrated, she actually LOSES at an astonishing rate: 84% of the time!  And she's by far the best thing in Florence Foster Jenkins; without her performance elevating the film, it would be a trifle.)  After 3 victories, she doesn't care about winning, either.  Or does she?  While she holds the unbreakable record for most acting nominations, she's 1 behind Katharine Hepburn for acting wins.  And I'm sure Hepburn would be quick to point out that she won all of her Oscars in the Lead category, while Streep slummed it in the Supporting category for one of hers (kidding… Hepburn didn't even care enough to attend the ceremonies to accept any of her statuettes).  In a quest for a legacy that only Tom Brady would understand (damn him), Streep needs 5 Oscars (2 more) to achieve the undisputed title of Greatest of All Time.  Think she doesn't want the Oscar this year?  Then you don't know Meryl.  I'm just hoping she follows Florence Foster Jenkins with Florence Griffith Joyner.  Streep in a tale of triumph, controversy, and mortality, as the 1988 Olympic sprinter, 100m/200m world record holder, and one-legged-track-suit fashion icon?  Now THAT would get her one of those elusive Oscars.  

My vote?  It would probably go to Portman, with less enthusiasm than I had for her Black Swan performance.  Frankly, a good portion of the time it looks like she's doing Jackie Kennedy as a high-society spoof of Black Swan: paranoid, isolated, terrified, duplicitous, unreliable.  Other times it comes off as more of a boozy, breathy Marilyn Monroe (another one of JFK's lady friends).  But for the sake of posterity, the real question is, after dozens (hundreds?) of Jackie portrayals, does she bring anything new or novel to the character?  I mean, how can she possibly plumb new depths unexplored by Minka Kelly, Sarah Michelle Gellar, and Katie Holmes?  My biggest disappointment with the film is that Big Edie and Little Edie (the Beales of Grey Gardens) don't show up, along with their live-in raccoons.  That's the movie I want to see.  (Totally random side-note worth mentioning: In German, Jackie is titled "Die First Lady".  I'm not kidding.)

My Gloriously Omitted choice is, of course, Marion Cotillard, for her role as The Villainess in The Curious Marriage Of Bradley Pitt.  Team Angelina!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

SHOULD WIN:  Mahershala Ali (Moonlight) WILL WIN:  Mahershala Ali (Moonlight) GLORIOUSLY OMITTED:  Aaron Eckhart's mustache (Sully) INGLORIOUSLY SNUBBED:  Chris Pine and Ben Foster (Hell Or High Water), Tom Bennett (Love & Friendship)

When most of America watches the Oscars on TV, this will be the "Guy From" category, where nobody actually knows the names of the nominees.  The bad guy from Man Of Steel.  The military guy from The Hunger Games.  The kid from Slumdog Millionaire.  The kid from… I don't know who that kid is.  And the guy from all the Jeff Bridges movies.

One thing's for sure, one of the guys from this category won't be the "Guy From" much longer.  In case you haven't been paying attention, Mahershala Ali is going to be a gigantic movie star.  After he wins the Oscar for Moonlight, he's going to be at the top of the list for any franchise looking for an anchor, regardless of the tone or genre.  In 2016 alone, he managed to star in 4 feature films (2 of which were nominated for Best Picture: Moonlight and Hidden Figures) and 2 hit shows (House Of Cards and Luke Cage).  He's not a shoo-in to win the Oscar, but he's clearly the best bet, and in my not-so-humble opinion, the most deserving.  The biggest knock against him is that his screen time is relatively limited in Moonlight.  After he disappears at the end of Act I, I think everybody wants the story to follow him - his character Juan deserves his own film.  His portion of the film builds to such a compelling moment - the only moment of true dramatic conflict between him and the main boy, Chiron - that it's shame that it ends.  It's meant to be a turning point for little Chiron, but it appears to be just as big a turning point for Juan, someone who supposedly "knows who he is" (the key theme in the film).  The child deftly turns the tables on Juan, and challenges him to define who is really is - and in that moment we see Juan realize that he really doesn't know at all.  And then, unfortunately, he's gone.  While it's ultimately a minor role, I think Academy members will be impressed by his character's grace and contradictory nature.  It certainly doesn't hurt that Ali also does charismatic work in crowd-pleaser Hidden Figures, and impressed voters at the SAG awards with his inspiring, humble speech and impeccable pearl-white tux.  

The next most popular choice will be Jeff Bridges, for Hell Or High Water.  If he hadn't won recently (for Crazy Heart), he'd probably be the front-runner.  He has the benefit of being essentially the second main character in the film - one with his own story, his own decisions, his own spotlight.  The portrayal itself is just good ol' boy fun - Bridges looks like he's having a blast, with a guttural, fricasseed voice and a Texas swagger that invokes the late Richard Farnsworth and his own Rooster Cogburn.  Though I have to say, as Bridges ages, it seems he's getting more and more like that in real life.  I think he liked this character so much, that he's decided to stay in it.  

Speaking of Hell Or High Water, I'd like to mention both Chris Pine and Ben Foster for my Snubbed spot, for delivering surprisingly strong performances as ill-prepared bank-robbing brothers.  (Particularly Pine, whose surname is an apt description of his typical on-screen personality.)  Both Pine and Foster are generally unlikeable actors, but they both summon something I've never seen before, and create an impressively magnetic duo together.  It's possible I actually cared about their characters (but still wanted to see Jeff Bridges shoot them).  Most critics are calling Pine's performance the best of his career - which isn't saying much - and I agree.  

Is there a chance for Dev Patel or Michael Shannon to sneak in here?  They're both possibilities, but probably not.  For his lauded role in Lion, Patel won the BAFTA, which bolsters his chances… but then again, he's a Brit, so that doesn't count.  Shannon snuck into this category by somehow supplanting his Nocturnal Animals co-star Aaron Taylor-Johnson, who managed to win the Golden Globe but then got passed over for the Oscars.  (Christmas cards should be awkward this year.)  Shannon is the only actor to make Ali look lazy in 2016, with a whopping 10 feature films, plus a starring role on Broadway.  I'd be happy to see him win; he's a Chicago theater actor whose unique look and style have enabled him to methodically carve out a niche career, score kudos (including 2 Oscar nominations) for pretty much every one of his movies that's not about Superman, and somehow stay relatively anonymous and tabloid-free despite having about a zillion screen credits.  His agent must hate him, because every project that seems to attract him (or he attracts) is low-budget and, for lack of a better word, weird.  A small sampling: Elvis & Nixon; Midnight Special; Take Shelter; My Son, My Son, What Have Ye Done; Let's Go To Prison; The Broken Tower; Bug; and of course, Kangaroo Jack.  (And yes, that's him at the diner as a teenager in Groundhog Day.)

I'm a little puzzled by the nomination for Lucas Hedges in Manchester By The Sea.  (But given how puzzled I am by the movie itself, I guess that shouldn't be a surprise.)  I just don't know what's so impressive about his performance.  To me, he just seems like a smart-assed, foul-mouthed, horny 16-year old; in other words, every 16-year old.  For all we know, that's what he's like in real life - so is it great acting?  For a character whose father has just died and whose mother abandoned him years earlier, his performance just doesn't feel that authentic to me.  There are interesting flashes of denial, but it seems like the film mostly glazes over that element, instead of using it to elevate the character.  More than anything, I'm struck by how much he seems like a teenage version of Matt Damon - voice, accent, posture, performance.  It's no accident that Damon is a producer on the film - he probably held New England-wide auditions to find his mini-me, to star alongside Ben Affleck's mini-me.  In terms of advice, I'm guessing Damon just handed Hedges a VHS tape of Good Will Hunting and said, "Hey Lil' Matt, watch this movie, because I think I'm amazing."  For my money, I would have preferred to see any of a number of actors take Hedges' place in this category: Pine or Foster (see above), Tom Bennett (a hilarious Victorian moron in Love & Friendship), Hugh Grant (playing his weaknesses as strengths in Florence Foster Jenkins), or even Robert Downey Jr. (in a tiny, magnificent cameo as the corpse of a porno director in The Nice Guys).

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

SHOULD WIN:  Viola Davis (Fences) WILL WIN:  Viola Davis (Fences) GLORIOUSLY OMITTED:  Anna Gunn (Sully) INGLORIOUSLY SNUBBED:  Kathryn Hahn (Bad Moms)

This is the biggest lock of the night: Viola Davis will win for Fences.  She's winning everything.  Literally everything.  She's even winning awards that have nothing to do with this movie.  I'm pretty sure she just beat out Beyonce for a Grammy.  If she would have announced her candidacy for President the day before the election, she would have won that, too.  And it's overdue: I'm in the camp that thinks she should have won the Oscar for The Help.  She's been the prohibitive favorite here since the movie adaptation of August Wilson's play was announced; after all, she won a Tony for the same role on Broadway.  And the critical consensus is that she's even better in the film than she was on stage.  Even her nostrils give an award-winning performance during her crying scene.  (Oh my, that's a runny nose.  Which brings up a lot of practical considerations: Did director Denzel Washington call for the amount of snot in each take?  Did he ask for a variety, so he had snot options in the editing room?  Do they have continuity checks for snot?  Did the script specify the viscosity and texture of snot?  Do close-ups require 'hero' snot?  Can Davis snot on cue?  Is there fake snot for the days she can't get the nose-works going?  Does that fall under the Makeup department, or is a there a specialized Snot Wrangler?  Is there a separate casting call for snot, and if so, which agents specialize in it?  So many questions.)  If Davis is emotional during her acceptance speech, let's hope they hand her a kleenex - or five - along with the Oscar.

Nicole Kidman has said she felt a strong bond with her character in Lion, as they're both adoptive mothers.  Many credit that real-life connection and perspective with propelling Kidman to her 4th Oscar nomination.  In order to secure a nomination in her next film, she's planning to play a woman who marries a celebrity in order to conceal his closeted sexuality.  "I could play that role in my sleep," she said.  "Come to think of it, I've played that role twice."  Does she have a chance to win this year?  She already has an Oscar.  Next.  

Octavia Spencer gives a strong performance in Hidden Figures, but it seems that she's something of a surrogate for the entire SAG-winning cast, a way to recognize all of them.  (They could have easily nominated Janelle Monae, who infused Figures, as well as Moonlight, with a welcome burst of energy.  Pretty impressive for a singer in her first acting roles ever.)  While Spencer is steady throughout, her portrayal is fairly businesslike; she doesn't have many showy scenes that would stand out to Oscar voters.  So does she have a chance to win this year?  She ALSO already has an Oscar.  (And even she is rooting for Viola Davis.)  Next.

Perhaps the biggest revelation of all this year's nominees is Naomie Harris, for her role as a struggling drug-addict mother in Moonlight.  She's been recognizable in a variety of roles over the past decade and a half, but she hasn't shown anything like what she does with this role.  But does she… I think you know where this is going.  Next.

That brings us to Michelle Williams, for her role in Manchester By The Sea.  She's quietly racked up 4 career Oscar nominations without a win - she's venturing into Amy Adams territory.  She's been consistently strong since the day she paddled out of Dawson's Creek, so a lot of voters WANT to pencil her in.  But with such a tiny role in this film, there's simply no compelling reason to do so this year.  Frankly, I'm not even so sure she deserves one of these slots.  She only pops up in a handful of scenes, mostly to fill in emotional backstory for Casey Affleck and to make us feel terrible about life in general.  (And gahwd, that accent.)  So… no.  

BEST DIRECTOR:

SHOULD WIN:  Denis Villeneuve (Arrival) WILL WIN:  Damien Chazelle (La La Land) GLORIOUSLY OMITTED:  Stephen Frears (Florence Foster Jenkins) INGLORIOUSLY SNUBBED:  David Mackenzie (Hell Or High Water)

This category, a collection of refreshing, talented directors with unique voices, probably represents the future of cinema.  (And that's including Mel Gibson - there will always be at least one racist old coot in the establishment.  I guess if the Academy forgave Roman Polanski, they'll forgive anybody.)  There's very little doubt here that Damien Chazelle will prevail for La La Land.  I'm more okay with the film scoring the Director prize than Picture, due to the daunting technical nature of the film, but I would still choose someone else.  I was frankly more impressed with Chazelle's previous (and more poignantly intimate) film, Whiplash.  After all the hullabaloo surrounding La La Land, I kept waiting for it to transform into a unique, original take on the musical romance genre… but it never does.  I don't think the opening freeway musical number is as much of a dazzler as everyone else seems to.  And the dancing… Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone don't look like naturals, they look like contestants on Dancing With The Stars, going through the paces after a couple weeks of rehearsals.  To Chazelle's credit, there are a lot of nice touches in the film, and the final sequence is outright fantastic (more on that in the Original Screenplay category).  I just expected more to justify the hype… and the slew of Oscars it will win.

I'm much more impressed with Denis Villeneuve's vision in Arrival.  Besides crafting a film that's visually stunning, narratively captivating, and intellectually stimulating, he managed to make a deeply personal film about what's effectively a silly sci-fi alien invasion.  (Though the title is inauspicious: Dithering voters might confuse it with that other alien invasion movie called The Arrival, the 1996 masterpiece starring critical darling and Hollywood treasure Charlie Sheen as a - wait for it - brilliant astronomer with a goatee.)  This year's hipster nomination, Villeneuve may appear to be a newcomer, but he's been a darling on the French-Canadian art-house scene (Is that a thing?) for two decades.  (Credit where credit's due: I predicted he would be the next big thing back in 2000 at the Toronto Film Festival; it just took 16 years, that's all.  Next up for him?  The SLIGHTY high-profile Blade Runner sequel.)  If you want to impress your film-snob friends, check out his French-language film Maelstrom, a twisty, dark thriller / love story with bits of absurdist humor thrown in for good measure.  (Oh, and it's narrated by a fish.  In a butcher shop.  Being chopped up into pieces.  I’m telling you, the French-Canadian art-house scene.)

It's a real longshot, but a win here for Barry Jenkins (director of Moonlight) would be a pleasant surprise.  Jenkins took a tiny, potentially difficult, urban art film and turned it into a true sensation.  The feat is even more astounding considering it's only his second feature, his main actors are mostly inexperienced, and he tells a story about the internal conflicts of an introvert who barely speaks.  To top it all off, he chooses to split the story into 3 pieces, spread out over 15 years. As narratives go, it's about as tough as it gets.  Moonlight is not going to be everybody's favorite film, but it's a marvel, and Jenkins is someone we'll be hearing plenty more about.

It's actually been 10 years since Mel Gibon's drunken, expletive-ridden, anti-Semitic rant during his DUI arrest.  Just long enough for Mel Gibson jokes to be funny again - and since Jimmy Kimmel is hosting the Oscars, I think you can expect one or two (or twenty).  How to explain Gibson's nomination for Best Director for Hacksaw Ridge?  I think an old episode of South Park featuring a loony Gibson put it best: "Say what you want about Mel Gibson, but the sonuvabitch knows story structure."  Want to know a totally, completely true fact?  Gibson fought hard for a couple of titles to his World War II drama, before the studio forced him to change it to Hacksaw Ridge: "Guess Who's Responsible For WWII (And All The Wars In The World)" and "Sugar Tits".

While I respect Kenneth Lonergan as a filmmaker, I haven't been overly impressed with any of his films.  I mean, I WANT to like his movies.  They're just… tough to digest.  I know that, above all, he strives for realism.  Referring to typical Hollywood movies, he recently said in an interview, "I see them sugarcoat and pass over experiences everybody in the world has had.  It annoys me, because it seems like a lie."  He certainly doesn't sugarcoat anything in Manchester By The Sea, where Lonergan's form of realism is exceptionally harsh.  And maybe that's my problem - when I watch a movie, realism isn't always exactly what I want to see, especially when it puts me in a depressed mood for a couple days.  Aside from the tone and story, I actually have problems with the awkward editing and incongruous musical choices.  They make the film seem unpolished, beyond the point of realism.  It feels, I don't know, almost lazy.  I'm sure it's all intentional, but I just don't understand why.  When it comes to Lonergan, I guess there's a lot I don't understand.  

David Mackenzie got passed over for an Oscar nomination for Hell Or High Water, but he may still win a Nobel Prize… for coaxing an actual lifelike performance out of Chris Pine.  I was hoping Mackenzie would sneak into this race.  The Scottish director filmed in New Mexico with a West Coast actor and somehow managed make a film that feels authentically like West Texas - without casting Tommy Lee Jones.  (I damn near had to turn on the subtitles to understand those accents.)  His wide lens captures something both intoxicating and toxic about the region.  How do you make geography look so beautiful and so crappy at the same time?  There are plenty of postcard-worth landscapes in Odessa, but Mackenzie will be damned if he'll use those.  But instead, here's an extra helping of rural decay!  The West Texas office of tourism has to absolutely hate it every time a new movie is set in the area.  Based on what we see in movies, we assume it's depressive, repressive, oppressive, backwards, racist, redneck, violent, callous, dead-end, dying, undereducated, sweltering, and corrupt.  Maybe that's why they filmed Hell Or High Water in New Mexico: they weren't allowed in Texas.  "If you're not going to film La La Land 2 here, then git the hell out!"  

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

SHOULD WIN:  Taylor Sheridan (Hell Or High Water) WILL WIN:  Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester By The Sea) GLORIOUSLY OMITTED:  A million people (Zootopia) INGLORIOUSLY SNUBBED:  Anthony Bagarozzi, Shane Black (The Nice Guys)

It's not uncommon for one of the screenplay awards to serve as a runner-up for the Best Picture race, particularly when there's a chance to reward a writer-director.  This year, probably both screenplay categories will serve this purpose, which is unfortunate.  While La La Land certainly could sweep every category and claim this prize, it's more likely that Manchester By The Sea will take it.  Personally, I'd rather see it go to a more enthralling piece of writing, Hell Or High Water.  

As movie writers go, Kenneth Lonergan is about as unassailable as they come.  No stranger to accolades, Manchester By The Sea is his 3rd screenplay nomination (following You Can Count On Me and Gangs Of New York), and he's got a pile of other film and playwrighting awards (including a Pulitzer nomination).   I would be an idiot to criticize his writing, but I’m going to do it anyway.  (I think I've proven that I’m an idiot in the past, so I might as well embrace it.)  Simply put, I don't think Manchester has a strong story.  I won't go so far as to claim that the emperor has no clothes, but if you spent 20 seconds on the Internet, you'll find tons of people who feel that way about Mr. Lonergan.  I suppose I would categorize this script as a tragedy (in the ancient dramatic sense), but there isn't really anywhere for the main character to fall from.  It strikes me as more of a portrait (admittedly, a rich, vivid one); it seems to take more cues from the stage world than screen.  I don't want to say too much to spoil anything (but just in case you're going to see this movie, skip this paragraph to avoid spoilers).  Probably my biggest complaint (other than the fact that it's a serious downer) is that the story is set up as a classic redemption story, and then… there's no redemption.  Instead, the main character resigns himself to failure.  (And please, I'm not saying "I wish it had a Hollywood ending.")  There's a clear crossroads in the movie where, after the 'Lost Point' (the main character's lowest point in the story, about 3/4 of the way through), the character would choose a redemptive path (through an epiphany, an active decision, drastic measures, etc.).  But he simply doesn't.  And then the rest of the story just peters out from there.  The frustrating thing is that the character recognizes the opportunity for redemption (taking responsibility for his deceased brother's teenage son), but he refuses it.  Lonergan clearly sets this situation up, tempts us to follow him, gives us a head-fake, and runs off in the other direction.  (In his defense, there is an intriguing - and potentially heartening - hint of self-sacrifice on the part of the main character, but I think it's too faint to truly pay off.)  This is a long way of saying that after a 2-hour journey of unrelenting grief, I wanted more of a reason for the journey to be worthwhile.  

As I mentioned, there's a good chance that La La Land will win Best Original Screenplay instead of Manchester, but brother, I hope it doesn't.  I'm not even sure why it's nominated here in the first place.  The genre and music notwithstanding, there isn't much motor in the story.  I find no compelling reason to be invested in the romance between the drippy, selfish faux-idealists.   There are no real obstacles.  There is no conflict other than superficial conflict for its own sake - internally fabricated by the characters to get in their own way.  It's like they're trying to make their lives harder for no particular reason.  How do these wistful whiners get past practical inconveniences, like filing their income taxes?  (I'm sure their 1040s are met with an abundance of longing sighs.)  But believe it or not, I have to say, I think the ending is superb.  It almost redeems the movie… almost.  (It's the one part that I like, and not surprisingly, the one part that my wife hates.)  I can't say much without ruining the movie (and trust me, I REALLY do want to ruin the movie for you), but it effectively turns the entirety of the movie into a fairly poignant metaphor.  It gives weight to many of the themes that were, up to that point, trite, and adds legitimacy to some of the lazy aspects of the screenplay.  It attempts to answer the question (with some success, I admit) of what it means to dream - with all the perks and perils that come along with it - and whether a dream can ever truly become a reality.  I'm certain there are different interpretations of the ending; I prefer a cynical one.  What if you achieve your dream - is that even a good thing?  I guess my primary lament about the script is: If writer-director Damien Chazelle had such a cool trick up his sleeve for the finale, why did he drown the rest of the movie with such lifeless material?  

I'm rooting for Hell Or High Water, written by Taylor Sheridan.  Besides what I previously mentioned, probably its biggest strength is that it wisely does not dwell on backstory.  It doesn't spend time in the beginning "setting up" who the bank-robbing main characters are, or shoehorn in flashbacks to fill in the gaps (ahem, Manchester By The Sea).  It jumps right into the story in the opening scene and never looks back, giving us just enough of a sense of the characters' backgrounds and motivations to keep us on track - without EXPLAINING it all to us.   (The price of that is a few clunky expositional lines of dialogue, but in general it's handled pretty well.)  Credit the director and editor on that front as well: knowing that anything that is NOT part of the story does NOT belong in the movie.  The message of the script, a clear allegory, is an admirable - if damning - one.  Besides condemning the evils of greed and "the bank", it hammers home a theme about the sins of fathers (biological and generational) and redemption of (or rejection by) sons.  Unfortunately it teeters into preachy, heavy-handed territory occasionally.  (There's an awkward, unintentionally funny scene where Jeff Bridges' lawman stops his truck to allow a ranch hand to corral his cattle across the road.  As he's struggling to herd the cattle away from a blazing prairie fire - clearly a life and death situation - the rancher pauses to casually deliver an absurdly jarring, unprovoked, preachy, expository speech.  Given the circumstances, I don't think I'd be up for much conversation with a random driver, other than, "Watch out for my cows, a--hole!")  Unlike many of the nominees this year, the film delivers with a resonant, satisfying ending.  The only detriment is that the final scene (which had the potential to be understated, sly, and truly great) is a little on-the-nose.  I have a feeling the studio gave a note… that should have been ignored.  

It seems that whenever Mike Mills writes a script about his family, it gets nominated for Oscars.  A few years ago, he wrote Beginners about his father, and Christopher Plummer won Best Supporting Actor.  Now 20th Century Women, written about his mother, is nominated for Best Original Screenplay.  I can't wait for the script about his goldfish.

Ah, The Lobster.  This is the most intriguing and refreshing nominee in either screenplay category.  It's as strange as you would expect from a filmmaker named Yorgos Lanthimos.  After seeing it, the only thing I know about it for sure is that the story can't be taken at face value.  It's clearly a satire, with subtext serving as the point of the film.  (Some would argue that subtext ALWAYS serves as the point of any film, and that a film should never be taken at face value.)  At its most obvious, it's a send-up of the absurdity of the "rules" and social norms around being a romantic couple and being single.  However, I'd argue that it better serves as an allegory for pretty much any arbitrary dichotomy, with 2 diametrically opposed sides or points of view.  It applies in particular to any situation where the line between the 2 sides is essentially fabricated, and people are forced to choose a side.  It applies well to important things like war, religion, and political parties, as well as more trivial concepts like cola wars, sports fans, and late-night talk show rivalries.   The film poses the questions that should be obvious: Why can't there be a 3rd point of view?  Or even infinite points of view?  Why are there any sides period?  Why do we have to choose?  I wish all this meant that it was a great movie.  The premise and the absurdity, especially in the first half of the film, are a strong draw (dialogue like: "Do you have any pets?" "Yes: my brother."), but the harshness is a little too sobering.  The story is whimsical, but in a rigid way: there are rules in the world of The Lobster, and they are relentlessly, brutally severe.  Going into it, I thought it might be quirky-fun (in the vein of Michel Gondry, Charlie Kaufman, or Wes Anderson), but it's quirky-disturbing.  There's a sensibility to The Lobster that's almost masochistic, which is belied by the comically flat and simple dialogue.  (All the characters deliver their lines like Europeans with 3rd grade English skills - appropriate, considering it was written by Greek men with 3rd grade English skills.)  It's more akin to A Clockwork Orange or Brazil, in terms of the skewed definitions of "normal", and the frightening prices people pay for not being "normal".  But unfortunately it's not nearly as good nor as enduring as those films.  

I know it's not fair to pick on a kids' movie like Zootopia, but am I the only one who thought the sloths-working-at-the-DMV gag was unfunny and unoriginal?  I guess so.  

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

SHOULD WIN:  Eric Heisserer (Arrival) WILL WIN:  Barry Jenkins, Tarell Alvin McCraney (Moonlight) GLORIOUSLY OMITTED:  Todd Komarnicki (Sully) INGLORIOUSLY SNUBBED:  Tony Gilroy, Chris Weitz (Rogue One: A Star Wars Story), Whit Stillman (Love & Friendship)

Ever since Moonlight was shifted from the Original to the Adapted Screenplay category, it's been the favorite, not having to compete against Manchester By The Sea and La La Land.  And once it beat both of those scripts at the Writers Guild Awards, it became a virtual lock for the Oscar.  Anyone that considers voting for it as Best Picture or Director will almost surely vote for it here.  But truthfully, I think the screenplay is one of Moonlight's weaker elements.  It's probably because I'm an advocate of a strong narrative.  And while there is a narrative thread across the film's 3 segments, I think other elements orchestrated by writer/director Barry Jenkins are what make Moonlight such a triumph.  So I'd probably vote for it for Director or Picture before Screenplay.  But to be fair, the script has many unique elements rarely seen in cinema, and people are clearly responding to it.  Whether it was the story, theme, production, direction, or acting, I found the film to be entrancing in a way I didn't expect.  

On the other hand, I love the script for Arrival (by Eric Heisserer), which has a very strong narrative.  In fact, it toys with narrative by dismantling what we've come to expect from flashbacks.  Flashbacks are often derided as a screenwriter's crutch, so Heisserer preys on that notion, then manipulates it into something new.  The story even takes a novel approach to the Alien Invasion genre: What if the aliens aren't the most important thing in the story?  

So, Moonlight will win, and if there's an upset, most people expect that it will come from Arrival.  But not so fast.  As I mentioned earlier, it's possible that a groundswell for Hidden Figures could conceivably propel it to a Best Picture victory.  And if that happens, look out, because it could well carry over into this category as well.  Never count out a story that people absolutely love.  (That said, the film's lack of nomination for Best Director makes this scenario much less plausible.)

I expect Fences will also get its share of votes, from a small group of passionate devotees.  It would be a way to honor the late August Wilson (who adapted his own Pulitzer Prize-winning play into a screenplay years ago).  But since Wilson had no active involvement in this incarnation of his story (he died in 2005), it won't approach the support that Moonlight is getting.  

Of course, we can't forget about Star Wars.  I really would vote for Rogue One: A Star Wars Story for Best Screenplay.  While the film on a whole was excellent, Screenplay is where it truly excelled.  Imagine the audacity of it: It takes a few throwaway lines from the opening crawl of the first Star Wars movie, and turns them into a clever thriller that culminates in a breathless firestorm leading smack into the first scene from the original masterpiece.  I expected cool action and mythology; I did not expect such an emotional story about characters that have never before even been mentioned in the series.  While I would also give full credit to director Gareth Edwards and the entire production, screenwriters Tony Gilroy and Chris Weitz (leveraging a story from John Knoll and Gary Whitta) are the MVPs.  By comparison, the story is unquestionably superior to The Force Awakens.  (Why, you ask, is my wife such a fan of Gilroy?  Because she's a bigger Star Wars geek than I am?  Because he was nominated for Screenplay and Director Oscars for Michael Clayton?  Because he was the mastermind behind all the Jason Bourne movies?  No.  Because he wrote The Cutting Edge.  That guy could cure cancer, and he would still be best remembered for the words "toe pick".)

[smeemyselfandi]

Every movie of 2016 (I've seen) ranked Best to Worst:

1. Moonlight- I can’t think of anything I would change about this movie to make it better. This movie was a experience that everyone should see

2. Hacksaw Ridge- This a War movie I like. ,A movie that just isn’t about the War but about the characters and isn’t afraid of being too violent which ,I heard a certain reviewer didn’t like that which how can you not like violence in a war movie?

3. Captian America: Civil War- Possibly the Best Superhero movie I ever seen. How can a movie have so many characters and not feel like a mess? Well this movie did it.

4. Kubo and the Two Strings- Great Animation with a good story. I don’t get why people bash the story so much. Was it perfect? No but it was still good in my opinion.

5. Moana- Great Music and possibly the best Disney Princess ever. I loved Moana but the story was kinda cliche and Maui was a bit too unlikeable.

6. La La Land- The whole time watching this movie I couldn’t figure out why it was so special then the ending happened and I wanted to watch the movie again and again.

7. O.J.: Made in America- Should this count as a film? I thought it was a miniseries but besides that it was interesting look at the rise and fall of O.J.

8. 10 Cloverfield Lane- This possibly could of been number 1 then the ending happened and I hated the ending so much but everything else I loved.

9. Silence- What a depressing movie about Faith that is very well done. The trailer is a bit misleading and it is a long moviee but I don’t regret watching it and felt every minute was worth it.

10.The Jungle Book- What a surprise this movie was. I enjoyed it way more than I thought. The animals looked very good.

11.The Conjuring 2- This was way better than the first one in my opinion and way scarier. That nun will give you nightmares.

12.Hell or High Water- Had no idea about this film going in but heard good things. It was good but kinda wasn’t really going anywhere until the end.

13.Doctor Strange- One of the best solo marvel movies. The villian is still disappointing though.

14.Fences- Great performances with a interesting story but I knew it was a play and it was very obvious

15.Manchester By The Sea- Might be the most depressing film of the year (This or Silence) but I liked it I just thought the kid was a bad actor and really didn’t care about their relationship. Should have been done better.

16.Zootopia- What a good kids film. Creative way to teach kids about accepting people by their race or gender.

17.The Nice Guys- A funny movie that was entertaining but I felt got way more praise than it deserved

  18.Nocturnal Animals- The story was interesting but Amy Adams story wasn’t that interesting but I still enjoyed the movie overall.

19.Arrival- Why is the movie so low?!?!? Cause it was kinda boring at parts and didn’t make too much sense at times but was still good.

20.Gleason- A heartbreaking film showing the effects of ALS. I just wish they talked about Gleason life more.

21.All The Way- Ahh Lyndon B. Johnson the guy people say may be the worst modern president ever. Bryan Cranston did a great job and this was interesting but I kinda wish it was more just about Lyndon B. Johnson.

22.Kung Fu Panda 3- Feel like people forgot about this movie. It was the best of the franchise and done differently than the other two which I liked. The villian was the best in my opinion as well.

  23.Weiner- What a narcissist. I just wanted to look away from this film cause it was so uncomfortabe but it was still really interesting.

24.Sing Street- The music in this film is fantastic but the love story..... not so much.

25.Finding Dory- This film was better than I thought it was gonna be but still felt pretty pointless.

  26.Loving- The first like 30 minutes of this movie is fantastic than it just nothing happens for the rest. You expect something awful to happen and they even tease it but nope.

27.The Red Turtle- A nice little film but kinda forgetable if you ask me.

  28.Swiss Army Man- This movie is stupid and I can’t believe people think it should be oscar nominated. It is not as deep as it thinks it is but I still enjoyed but not nearly as much as other people did.

  29.The Birth of a Nation- Controversary aside this movie was pretty decent. Good performances and scene but it’s hard to ignore the stuff they made up and the controversary.

30.Deadpool- This movie was fine but way overrated by people. The villian sucked, the story was average and the jokes weren’t that great. Deadpool was a great character though but I feel like people ignore everything else.

31.A Monster Calls- This movie did not make me cry even though it realllllllllly wanted to.I didn’t even come close cause it didn’t focuse enough on the mom and son relationship but I sitll enjoyed the movie.

  32.Don't Breathe- This movie was kinda stupid but still fun to watch. I enjoyed it for what it was I guess.

  33.Blair Witch- I don’t get the hate this film gets. Okay the characters suck but it was still scary and still entertaining in my opinion.

34.X-Men: Apocalypse- This is another movie that I feel gets too much hate. Apocalypse wasn’t as good as I hope but I did like the X-men. Nightcrawler was awesome!

35.Beware The Slenderman- First half of this film was really interesting then it kept going and going and going. This movie was too long for such a short story.

  36.Sausage Party- This movie was funny but most of the funny jokes were in the trailer. Disappointed in this movie but still think it’s good.

37.The Girl on the Train- A who done it movie which has the most predictable climax but Emily Blunt may have gave one of the best performances of the year

37.Hail, Caeser!- Can’t believe I ranked a Cohen film this far down but I felt the story was all over the place and didn’t care about most of the characters cause most of them were barely on screen.

  38.The BFG- I wanted to love this movie but I felt it was kinda pointless to make. There isn’t much wrong with it but a very basic children story.

39.Suicide Squad- This movie isn’t nearly as bad as people make it. I thought it actually might be good until the ending then it became a big mess and the villian was awful.

  40.Batman V Superman: Dawn of Justice-  This movie was a mess. It was too long but also too short and batman and alfred was the only good performance and Lois Lane is such a awful character.

41.Batman: The Killing Joke- The first part of this movie. That’s all I gotta really say...

42.Confirmation- This movie was pointless?? I really didn’t understand why this wa s made. If you know the story then you don’t need to watch this movie.

43.TMNT: Out of The Shadows- This movie was goofy and stupid but I liked it better than the first even though it still wasn’t good...

44.Jackie- zzzzzzzzzzzzzz. Sorry I fell asleep just thinking about this movie. How can you make a interesting person like her so boring.

45.Hush- Basic crappy horror movie but she’s deaf!!! That makes it better right?!?!?

46.Justice League vs Teen Titans- This movie should be sued for false advertisement. I barely remember much about this movie but I know it’s barely a Teen Titans Vs Justice League movie.

  47.Lights Out- Watch Mama. It’s done way better and actually makes sense. Only good thing was the special effects everything else was pretty stupid.

48.Yoga Hosers- Kevin Smith please stop smoking weed. This is not a movie for girls, Kevin Smith fans, stoners or anybody besides Kevin Smith and it was awful.

[ramialkarmi]

5 reasons 'Wonder Woman' was one of the most important films of 2017, and deserved a best picture Oscar nomination

  A lot of people predicted that "Wonder Woman" would get an Oscar nomination for best picture, but it didn't.

Its impact on the industry and culture made it deserving of a nomination, and it was robbed.  

Even though "Wonder Woman" is a summer action and superhero movie, it was a huge cultural moment in a year that was empowering for women in many ways.

  The most iconic best picture winners define their year, and their generation. And so do their fellow nominees.  "Wonder Woman" defined 2017 in a lot of ways, and absolutely deserved to make the list of nominees, but it was robbed. 

2017's "Moonlight," which beat the predicted winner "La La Land," marked the start of a big change in the industry. The film, which follows a gay black man from an impoverished neighborhood in Miami through multiple stages of his life, represented the kind of diverse storytelling that underrepresented storytellers had been fighting to get made. 

The film, like "Wonder Woman," proved that these stories can work for everyone, and be universally loved. 

Even without "Wonder Woman" in the line-up for best picture at the 2018 Oscars, the nominees, like gay coming-of-age story "Call Me by Your Name," prove a wave of change in cinematic storytelling has come. "Get Out," written and directed by Jordan Peele (who is now the fifth black man to be nominated in the directing category) is a horror satire about racism among white liberal elites. The female written, directed, and led "Lady Bird" focuses on a complicated relationship between a mother and daughter. Like "Wonder Woman," it has romance, but the film and its characters don't revolve around it. 

Even so, "Wonder Woman" deserves to be among them, because it's also had a significant impact on Hollywood. 

Here's why "Wonder Woman" deserved to be in the running for best picture at the 2018 Oscars:

SEE ALSO: Here are the 17 biggest Oscar snubs of 2018

It empowered women and encouraged women in Hollywood to speak out.

2017 started with the historic Women's March. And in 2017's last few months, notorious film producer Harvey Weinstein was accused of sexual misconduct by dozens of women, from both behind and in front of the camera. "Wonder Woman" producer Brett Ratner was also accused of sexual harassment, and won't be involved in further films in the franchise. The reports of this behavior from powerful men across multiple industries inspired the #MeToo movement that is occupying awards season. 

"Wonder Woman" itself didn't spark the current cultural moment, but it did instigate an industry-wide conversation about women in film that’s been brewing for decades, thanks to vocal director Patty Jenkins and actress Gal Gadot. Around the film's release, Jessica Chastain called the portrayal and representation of women in films "quite disturbing," at the Cannes film festival. "Wonder Woman," conversely, was praised for its empowering, woman-led representation of a female superhero.

Actress and producer Elizabeth Banks even cited the film as an example to show children, especially boys, how women should and can be represented.

      For the first time, a major Hollywood movie provided a female perspective, rather than a male gaze.

"Wonder Woman" marked a turning point in the way superhero films are shot.

A female director made all the difference. Just watch the scenes with Wonder Woman/Diana Prince from "Batman vs Superman: Dawn of Justice" and "Justice League." In the Zack Snyder films, everything lingers on Gal Gadot — from camera placement (usually low and behind her, to get her butt), to long close-ups of her face.

The way women are shot in "Justice League," which came out months after "Wonder Woman," feels especially gratuitous after seeing them shot so well. In "Wonder Woman," the Amazons' armor covers the torso, appearing reasonable for fighting in battle. In "Justice League," the Amazons wear pieces of fabric that don't cover more than they have to for the film to keep a PG-13 rating. 

The same is not true for the men in the Snyder films. Ben Affleck, Henry Cavill, Ray Fisher, Jason Momoa, and Ezra Miller are all attractive men with ripped bodies. But besides tight suits, there is no lingering, and no butt shots.

Gal Gadot is breathtaking. It's ok to say that, and it's also acceptable to emphasize a woman's beauty (or anyone's). But Jenkins, unlike Snyder and so many men who've directed women, doesn't use it as a tool, and doesn't use it to sell the story. The character is already great, and the story is already compelling enough. 

Instead, Jenkins showcases Diana's strength, optimism, and fearlessness to prove she is beautiful.

It broke records for female directors, who need to be taken more seriously than they have been in the history of filmmaking.

Director Patty Jenkins broke records with "Wonder Woman." Not only was she the first woman to direct such a large-scale superhero film — which, after so many years is a pretty sad statistic — but the movie became the highest-grossing movie ever directed by a woman, surpassing 2013's "Frozen," which was co-directed by Jennifer Lee and Chris Buck. "Wonder Woman" is also the highest-grossing superhero origin movie of all time. 

If Hollywood continues to give women and minorities opportunities to direct, the stories will naturally get better, because unique perspectives spur more interesting stories.  

  See the rest of the story at Business Insider

[brotherhood-of-okay-reviews-blog]

Oscar Recap

Chris' Movie Review Oscar Recap What a night for the Oscars. There was some ups and downs. And then there was a major downer for the Oscars. So let's jump into it. Best Picture Winner: Moonlight My Prediction: La La Land If you haven't heard, Warren Beatty read the wrong envelope. He was given an extra copy of the Lead Actress award and Warren didn't know what to do so he just went with La La Land as the winner. But that would soon turn out not to be the case as Moonlight would take home the Oscar. So I'm pretty biased when it comes to my Best Picture pick of the year. I wanted La La Land to win. Moonlight? Eh. The film really didn't speak to me. I guess I need to watch it again because people obviously liked it. In my blog, I've stated that the main character of Moonlight literally didn't do anything for me. I never felt anything from him or felt bad for him. My issue was that he never let his emotions really come out and, even when he did, it was literally for a second or two. You can read my blog about the movie if you want more information on my thoughts about Moonlight but La La Land should've won in my opinion. And I'll hold a grudge against the this Oscar year for the rest of my life. Best Actor Winner: Casey Affleck (Manchester By The Sea) My Prediction: Denzel Washington (Fences) Again the academy fucked up. Look, Casey did fine but I had the same issue with him as I did with Moonlight, I rarely felt any emotion from Casey. I'm going to get flack for this I don't think staring off into space and ignoring people around you is tough acting. I do it daily with people I don't know. But I'm not ignorant either. I can't imagine that it's easy to be cold to people you used to know. What I look for in acting is for the actor to give me a reason to care. Michelle Williams gave a me reason. Lucas Hedges gave me a reason. Casey? Not really. I understood his situation but what am I supposed to do when he's dead on the inside and out? You may have thought that Denzel was just being Denzel but at least I had an emotion with him. I hated Denzel's character. He was an arrogant asshole who thought he was above the rules. And that was honestly ten times better than Casey's performance. Best Actress Winner: Emma Stone (La La Land) My Prediction: Emma Stone Finally, the Oscars got one right. Well, actually, I wouldn't know. I didn't see any of the other nominee's movies. Which is really unfair from my viewpoint. I don't think all of them were available to me or to America either. So take what you will from this category. Best Supporting Actor Winner: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight) My Prediction: Lucas Hedges (Manchester By The Sea) Was Mahershala on screen that long? Like, he was there and then gone in an instant. Come on Oscars. Look, Mahershala was memorable but that's because the main character wasn't. Lucas was a great contrast for Casey Affleck. They needed Lucas to help give the film some humor Casey's downer mood. My friend and I were watching and both agreed that Mahershala was third at best. He should've lost to Lucas or even Michael Shannon. Both of those two left an impact on a movie that had strong main characters. Mahershala, eh. I guess if you want to make the argument that he didn't judge the main character, that's fine. But the life that Mahershala was living, he really couldn't judge a person all that much anyways. Best Supporting Actress Winner: Viola Davis (Fences) My Prediction: Viola Davis Between Viola, Michelle, and Naomie, I felt like any of those three could've won. But I'm glad Viola did. She was strong, ensuring, and great on screen. She held her ground against Denzel and she nailed her role. Point goes to the Oscars. Best Director Winner: Damien Chazelle (La La Land) My Prediction: Damien Chazelle I think everyone had a legitimate chance to win in the category. But Damien was my pick and I'm glad he got it. La La Land had it all and he brought it together and made it beautiful. Best Animated Film Winner: Zootopia My Prediction: Zootopia Did Zooptopia have competition? I know that one of my friends said that he wanted Kubo to win and I can see his point. The art was different and very well done. But the story for Kubo was okay at best. There was some unanswered questions and, I'll be honest, it just wasn't very memorable for me. Now if Your Name was nominated, then Zooptopia would've had a real foe but the Oscars just don't like anime movies....unless it's from Ghilbli. Best Original Screenplay Winner: Manchester By The Sea My Prediction: La La Land I'm actually happy for Manchester. I was leaning towards picking Manchester but I thought that La La Land was going to win just because. But the Oscars were very diverse this year with their picks. So good for them. Best Original Song Winner: City Of Stars (La La Land) My Prediction: Audition (La La Land) Well, I think Audition is the better choice between the two, but it's whatever. The Oscars didn't even acknowledge Sing Street. But you know what they did acknowledge though? They put that damn Can't Stop This Feeling (Trolls) song on the list. Just.... Just fucking stupid. Best Original Score Winner: La La Land My Prediction: La La Land What was seriously going to beat La La Land in this category? There just wasn't another score that stood that was nominated. Now, with that being said, can we talk about Justin Hurwitz? Justin is only 32 years old and he's written music for Guy And Madeline On A Park Bench (still need to watch), Whiplash, and now La La Land. This guy has a long career in the movie industry. He has written some wonderful music and he knows how to set the mood just right. Justin and Damien should work together as much as they can. They work magic on-screen and it would be exciting to see if they could pull it off again. Best Cinematography Winner: La La Land My Prediction: La La Land It was either La La Land or Arrival and I would've been good with either. Arrival is slow in pace but it has great atmosphere and beautiful shots. The film feels huge and mysterious all throughout. And it really deserved it's nomination. Best Visual Effects (The last category I picked) Winner: The Jungle Book My Prediction: Rogue One Looking back on it, I forgot how good The Jungle Book looked. The movie looks tremendous and I think it's all CGI. Rogue One looks phenomenal as well. Actually, all of the nominees look great but I'm glad The Jungle Book took home the prize. I really didn't see that one coming. And that's it from me. The Oscars pissed me off and then it satisfied me...and then it really pissed me off again. I went 6-6 on my picks. A good .500 score. Which isn't bad considering that each category brings multiple nominations. Jimmy Kimmel was pretty good as a host too. I'm not a big fan of his late night show but he did a good job roasting and he kept the flow of the show going. I was pleased with the show he put on. As usual, thanks for reading!

[haroldgross]

New Post has been published on Harold Gross: The 5a.m. Critic

New Post has been published on http://literaryends.com/hgblog/oscars-2017-results/

Oscars (2017): The results

How did I do with my predictions? My worst in years thanks to some honest competition and, well, a couple bits of stubbornness on my part. I actually hit the first four announcements out of the gate, and then things started to get interesting…

Here’s the top line:

62%, 15 out of 24

Of the major awards: 4 out of 7

Of the minor awards: 6 out of 9

Of the technical awards: 4 out of 8

So, basically, I mucked it up across all categories. If I’d not stuck to my guns on a few of the categories, I’d have done significantly better, but I really disagree with a few of the winners and I wasn’t willing to compromise my opinion to get a better hit rate. A few straggling write-ups will be coming over the next days as I squeezed in a few more films before the big night, but none changed my choices.

The detail follows.

THE MAJORS

Best supporting actress

Viola Davis (Fences)

Naomie Harris (Moonlight)

Nicole Kidman (Lion)

Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)

Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)

My prediction: Viola Davis Winner: Viola Davis

Best supporting actor

Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)

Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)

Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)

Dev Patel (Lion)

Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals)

My prediction: Mahershala Ali Winner: Mahershala Ali

Best actress

Isabelle Huppert (Elle)

Ruth Negga (Loving)

Natalie Portman (Jackie)

Emma Stone (La La Land)

Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)

My prediction: Emma Stone Winner: Emma Stone

Best actor

Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)

Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)

Ryan Gosling (La La Land)

Viggo Mortenson (Captain Fantastic)

Denzel Washington (Fences)

My prediction: Denzel Washington Winner: Casey Affleck

OK, I wasn’t surprised here, but I was disappointed.

Best director

Denis Villeneuve (Arrival)

Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge)

Damien Chazelle (La La Land)

Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)

Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)

My prediction: Damien Chazelle Winner: Damien Chazelle

Best foreign language film

A Man Called Ove (Sweden)

Land of Mine (Denmark)

The Salesman (Iran)

Tanna (Australia)

Toni Erdmann (Germany)

My prediction: Toni Erdmann Winner: The Salesman

Again, not an entire surprise here. Quality of Farhadi’s film aside, politics were certainly on its side.

Best picture

Arrival

Fences

Hacksaw Ridge

Hell or High Water

Hidden Figures

La La Land

Lion

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight

My prediction: La La Land Winner: Moonlight

If you missed the presentation on this, read about how it happened. Honestly, Moonlight is a great movie, but I don’t know that I’d pick it as the top, especially given the 3 awards it won, versus La La Land’s 6. Whether it was the musical thing, the politics thing, or vote splitting, it is rare to lose top honors while picking up Director and at least one of the major actor awards  (not to mention score, song, cinematography, and production design). Frankly, just glad it wasn’t Manchester.

THE MINORS

Best adapted screenplay

Eric Heisserer (Arrival)

August Wilson (Fences)

Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi (Hidden Figures)

Luke Davies (Lion)

Barry Jenkins and Alvin McCraney (Moonlight)

My prediction: Moonlight Winner: Moonlight

Best original screenplay

Taylor Sheridan (Hell or High Water)

Damien Chazelle (La La Land)

Yorgos Lanthimos and Efthimis Filippou (The Lobster)

Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)

Mike Mills (20th Century Women)

My prediction: La La Land Winner: Manchester by the Sea

Feh. Just, feh.

Best animated feature

Kubo and the Two Strings

Moana

My Life as a Zucchini

The Red Turtle

Zootopia

My prediction: Kubo and the Two Strings Winner: Zootopia

As promised: AAAARRrrrrrggggg!!!!

I admitted all along that Zootopia was the likely winner. This was a stubborn hope on my part that enough of the Academy would see Kubo so it could win. It is the far superior piece of work. Hopefully Laika’s next will finally land a win.

Best documentary feature

Fire At Sea

I Am Not Your Negro

Life, Animated

OJ: Made in America

13th

My prediction: OJ: Made in America Winner: OJ: Made in America

Best original song

La La Land – Audition (The Fools Who Dream) by Justin Hurwitz, Benj Pasek and Justin Paul

La La Land – City of Stars by Justin Hurwitz, Benj Pasek and Justin Paul

Moana – How Far I’ll Go by Lin-Manuel Miranda

Trolls – Can’t Stop the Feeling by Justin Timberlake, Max Martin and Karl Johan Schuster

Jim: The James Foley Story – The Empty Chair by J Ralph and Sting

My prediction: Fools Who Dream (or City of Stars… but La La either way unless they split the vote) Winner: City of Stars

Yeah, La La… I’m not penalizing my self on this one. I did declare for the correct one before the show… I forgot to update. C’mon, I’ve been honest all along, just trust me on this one.

Best original score

Jackie by Mica Levi

La La Land by Justin Hurwitz

Lion by Dustin O’Halloran and Hauschka

Moonlight by Nicholas Britell

Passengers by Thomas Newton

My prediction: La La Land Winner: La La Land

Best live action short

Ennemis Interieurs

La Femme et le TGV

Silent Nights

Sing

Timecode

My prediction: Sing Winner: Sing

Best documentary short

4.1 Miles

Extremis

Joe’s Violin

Watani: My Homeland

The White Helmets

My prediction: The White Helmets Winner: The White Helmets

Best animated short

Blind Vaysha

Borrowed Time

Pear Cider and Cigarettes

Pearl

Piper

My prediction: Pearl Winner: Piper

No real surprise given the Pixar background. At some point I do hope to see it. Pearl was available to me, but haven’t seen the rest yet so guessed.

THE TECHNICAL

Best costume design

Allied

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Florence Foster Jenkins

Jackie

La La Land

My prediction: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them Winner: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Best make-up and hairstyling

A Man Called Ove

Star Trek Beyond

Suicide Squad

My prediction: Suicide Squad Winner: Suicide Squad

Best production design

Arrival

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Hail, Caesar!

La La Land

Passengers

My prediction: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them Winner: La La Land

This surprised me, I admit. And, honestly, don’t see it, but hey, good for them. All the nominees here were deserved.

Best cinematography

Arrival

La La Land

Lion

Moonlight

Silence

My prediction: La La Land Winner: La La Land

Best film editing

Arrival

Hacksaw Ridge

Hell or High Water

La La Land

Moonlight

My prediction: Arrival Winner: Hacksaw Ridge

So totally disagree here, but, again, this was one of my stubborn choices. I really didn’t think this would be the result, though.

Best sound editing

Arrival

Deepwater Horizon

Hacksaw Ridge

La La Land

Sully

My prediction: La La Land Winner: Arrival

Of the possibilities for Arrival, this isn’t the one I would have selected, but am glad Arrival got at least one win.

Best sound mixing

Arrival

Hacksaw Ridge

La La Land

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

My prediction: La La Land Winner: Hacksaw Ridge

Yeah, this was a possibility and they did a heck of a lot of good work on the battle scene. I admit I selected based on an expected landslide for La La Land in this category.

Best visual effects

Deepwater Horizon

Doctor Strange

The Jungle Book

Kubo and the Two Strings

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

My prediction: Jungle Book Winner:  Jungle Book

[thesnootyushers]

The Snooty Ushers give their predictions for the big event!

Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, children of all ages, The Snooty Ushers proudly present to you our 2017 Oscar predictions! We have already crowned our Best Film of 2016 (it can be found here) but we are not the only prestigious body giving out awards. Tonight is the 89th Academy Awards, but if you can’t wait for the Jimmy Kimmel hosted show, we have predicted the winners for you, right here!

Here we predicted the best screenplay winners (just click here!), the supporting awards (found here) and the acting roles (this link here). Also, our best director predictions can be found here, but for now, here are our predictions for…

Best Picture

And the nominations are…

Arrival (Denis Villeneuve)

Fences (Denzel Washington)

Hacksaw Ridge (Mel Gibson)

Hell or High Water (David Mackenzie)

Hidden Figures (Theodore Melfi)

La La Land (Damien Chazelle) – Read George’s review here

Lion (Garth Davis) – Read Dan’s review here

Manchester by the Sea (Kenneth Lonergen)  – Read Dan’s review here

Moonlight (Barry Jenkins) – Read Dan’s review here

And our predictions are…

James What I want to win: Arrival. Apart from Creed, this was my favourite film of 2016. A moving piece of sci-fi that has an important message about loss. The last few years have seen a wider range of films get nominated than in the past (The Martian and Mad Max Fury Road were on the list last year), but I doubt very much that Arrival will be a winner, despite Amy Adams’ great performance. She really was robbed of an acting nomination between this and Nocturnal Animals.

What I think will win: La La Land. A love letter to Hollywood. A magical story of dreamers. A deserved mockery of 80s cover bands. Hopefully a big winner. If it wasn’t for Arrival it would have been my “want to win” in this and the director categories as well.

Dan What I want to win: Hell or Highwater. Our favourite film of 2016 is as deserving a film as the rest of the field, that it isn’t typical Oscar bait makes me want it to win all the more.

What I think will win: La La Land. My heart tells me that Chazelle wins Best Director, but the best feature will go to Manchester by the Sea. However as I write this I’m going for head over heart.

Dave What I want to win: Hell or High Water. This film, on first glance looks like it could be punching above its weight in this company, but it more than earns its place.  It is just great.  If it doesn’t win, then it can always rest in the knowledge that it was voted Snooty Ushers’ Film of The Year 2016

What I think will win: La La Land.  Is there really any doubt?

Welshy What I want to win: Hell or High Water

What I think will win: La La Land.

It has already been said by my fellow ushers. No one is really expecting anything other than La La Land.  A shame because there are some really good contenders this year. All of them are deserving.

Rich What I want to win:

What I think will win:

And that is it! The Oscars are tonight, and we’ll be watching to see who wins, partly because we are interested in seeing quality films recognised but mostly to see who can claim bragging rights for the best predicitons! Let us know what you think we’ve got right and what we’ve got wrong!

Until next time, stay gold Ponyboy, stay gold. See you soonish.

v

The Snooty Ushers’ Oscar Predictions: Best Picture The Snooty Ushers give their predictions for the big event!