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southeastasianists · 4 years ago

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A lot has been written about Myanmar since the military takeover in the hours before dawn on Feb. 1. Much of it has been about the violence on the streets, which after a weekend when at least 114 people were shot dead is understandable. But more needs to be said about the reasons for the coup, the historical context for what we see today, and how both affect what is happening in full public view before an increasingly critical global audience.

It is time to tick a few boxes.

The past

The first time an elected government was removed in Myanmar was in 1962 when the Tatmadaw (armed forces) commander, General Ne Win, overthrew Prime Minister U Nu and abolished the 1947 independence constitution. It was an almost bloodless event that at the time many people saw as a logical and not unreasonable reaction to fears of the imminent disintegration of the then Union of Burma.

It was only later that Ne Win’s Revolutionary Council made up entirely of Tatmadaw officers launched what was known as the “Burmese Way to Socialism” and ultimately the end of Burma as a prosperous nation. Socialism was, however, used by Ne Win as the ideological glue binding the Tatmadaw and the civilian bureaucracies.

The evolution of Tatmadaw rule into the “Socialist Republic” in 1974 saw the institution of a one-party state with all significant offices held by the men of the Tatmadaw, who retired from their military command posts to take up parliamentary or other civilian positions.

The second, in 1988, was in part a takeover from itself. The collapse of the Ne Win system that year was accompanied by the promise of constitutional amendments allowing free-and-fair, multi-party elections. This promise was maintained by the new Tatmadaw regime, which styled itself with Orwellian flair as the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC). Headed at first by General Saw Maung, and after 1992 by his deputy General Than Shwe, SLORC abolished the 1974 constitution.

SLORC decided it had restored law and order in 1997 and changed its title and defined purpose to become—with an inspiration that rivals Orwell’s “Ministry of Truth”—the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC). It is tempting to believe that Orwell, who wrote “Burmese Days” in 1934, saw this coming.

The SPDC remained a body formed by, and largely constituted of, Tatmadaw officers. It remained in office until March 2011, when it handed over power to the parliament elected under the 2008 Constitution, a document put to a national referendum by the SPDC and approved through a process widely described as rigged. The SPDC announced 94 percent of voters were in favor.

The 2008 Constitution included provisions that guaranteed Tatmadaw control of all essential state security functions, a quarter of the membership of all elected bodies, and a requirement that any proposal for constitutional amendment obtain three-quarters support in the national parliament—an effective veto over change.

The present

The National League for Democracy (NLD) was founded by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi in September 1988, 10 days after the SLORC seized power but pursuant to the promise of multi-party elections first mooted by Ne Win. Many tribulations befell her in the years that followed, but the NLD remained a registered political party despite persistent harassment of its leadership. The party was ordered to cease political activities in 2004. Daw Aung San Suu Kyi was seen by the Tatmadaw, and the population alike, as the only person with the stature and personality to deprive the military of its control, generating both fear and hope in both camps.

There was, however, a general appreciation of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi as the person most likely to make a difference, and also of her as a person who could achieve change with the support of large sections of the Tatmadaw because of her place in the country’s history—the daughter of independence hero General Aung San. It was because of this strength that she was kept under various forms of house arrest between 1989 and 2010 (with some breaks during which she was able to build the image of the NLD and herself throughout the country).

When she attained power after elections held in 2015, it was clear one of her priorities would be to remove the Tatmadaw’s control of parliaments by virtue of its 25 percent guarantee of the share of seats. Whenever this issue was raised, it was immediately clear the Tatmadaw leaders, especially commander-in-chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, would not entertain such a change. However, many others in Myanmar had believed that Snr-Gen Than Shwe’s Constitution was part of a planned transition from military to civilian rule.

The Myanmar general elections in 2015 were the first contested countrywide by the NLD. The result gave the NLD 86 percent of the seats in the national Parliament. This was more than enough for the election, by the Parliament, of the president. As Daw Aung San Suu Kyi had been rendered ineligible to be president by qualifications placed in the Than Shwe Constitution, the Parliament elected the nominee of the NLD at the time, U Htin Kyaw. He retired on health grounds in 2018 and was replaced by NLD nominee U Win Myint.

Approaching tomorrow

Tatmadaw commander-in-chief Snr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing has been in this office since March 2011 and so was present during the three presidencies since the retirement from public life of Snr-Gen Than Shwe. Many Myanmar people, including Tatmadaw officers, were surprised when he was elevated to this position by Snr-Gen Than Shwe, for he had not had a particularly distinguished army career and was promoted above many more senior colleagues.

In that sense, Snr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing was seen as a parallel to an earlier president, U Thein Sein, who was elevated by Snr-Gen Than Shwe and served between 2011 and 2016, despite there being others seen as more senior and deserving.

U Thein Sein quickly became a president who seemed to have the public’s interests at heart and was known for his instruction in 2011 to parliamentarians to go to their constituencies, meet the people, understand their problems, and bring them to the capital for solution. Nobody had ever done that before.

Snr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing, on the other hand, was widely rumored to have engaged in corrupt activities through ownership of shares in companies run by the military. Despite some efforts to meet a wider range of people than is normal for Tatmadaw commanders, he never won public admiration or trust.

The NLD won a stunning victory in the elections on Nov. 8 last year, when it improved on its 2015 numbers. There was a widespread expectation the NLD would lose some seats in ethnic regions, but would hold its numbers in the Bamar (ethnic Burmese) heartland. The elections were observed by respected international observers (such as the Asian Network for Free Elections and the Carter Center) as well as 13 accredited domestic groups. All found the procedures on election day stood the test of fairness.

When results started coming in, the first murmurings of dissatisfaction emerged from the Tatmadaw, matching protests lodged with the Election Commission by the pro-military Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP). Nobody took the complaints seriously, and the country began to prepare for a peaceful transfer of power.

It was striking at the time to see how similar some of the protests were to those lodged in the US by people alleging voter fraud and other irregularities, and perhaps that dulled the impression that the protests should have generated. When challenged about the Tatmadaw’s intentions, and whether it would allow a peaceful transfer of power, the Tatmadaw spokesman played down the questions. It was not until a couple of days before the newly elected parliament was to meet for its swearing-in ceremony that anyone started to think that the ceremony might not take place.

Why Feb. 1?

At this point it’s necessary to note that the elections took place under Snr-Gen Than Shwe’s 2008 Constitution, held up by the Tatmadaw as the way forward. Had the new Parliament been sworn in as scheduled at 10 a.m. on Feb. 1, it would have had a five-year term ahead of it, under the Constitution.

It would have had the authority to choose the president and it would have been responsible for choosing the next Tatmadaw commander-in-chief when Snr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing compulsorily retired on July 3—his 65th birthday.

As banal as this sounds, Snr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing’s personal expectations stand out as the core element in the takeover and its date. It is widely believed he aspired to the national presidency himself, but the size of the NLD victory dashed that hope, and also introduced the real possibility that antipathy to the Tatmadaw everywhere in the country would permit Daw Aung San Suu Kyi to mobilize the people for constitutional change aimed at reducing Tatmadaw influence.

There are plenty of signs that most of the people were looking forward to the swearing-in of the new Parliament, and few signs that the Tatmadaw or the police were preparing for anything else. When the army and police struck, there were no signs of much preparation. People detained were at home or asleep, and they were not taken off to detention sites for some time, sometimes for days or longer. There were no measures in place to lock down communications or take any action for public control. There was no immediate release of legal language to justify what was being done.

In other words, although some close observers did say they had picked up noises that the Tatmadaw might move before the Parliament was sworn in, very few of those in power, including in the NLD, saw it coming. Snr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing would have anticipated no serious resistance.

Afterwards

The situation which confronted Snr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing and his self-appointed State Administrative Council was the appearance on the streets, day and night, of millions—yes, millions—of Myanmar citizens demanding respect for the Nov. 8 elections and the resumption of democratic government.

Now, almost two months later, the demonstrations continue, undeterred by extreme violence. They are everywhere in the country, from the big cities to the villages and involve people of all ethnicities, religions, cultures, genders and age groups. Age is a special consideration, for the demonstrators include the bulk of the country’s youth, most born and raised after Gen. Saw Maung’s takeover in 1988 and virtually all, thanks to President U Thein Sein, fully internet-literate.

Internet literacy enables the population, led by the youth, to communicate with each other, and with their colleagues and friends outside Myanmar. This has produced a great deal of public pressure from outside the country, and while most of the Tatmadaw have not traveled widely, nearly all of them have relatives who have. There is much more knowledge of the outside world now than in 1988, and the lessons which Snr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing would have learned as a young man would no longer fit to the world he inhabits now.

Tomorrow

The indications from yesterday and today say that this is where astrologers (very popular in Myanmar) would be looking:

#Southeast Asia #Burma #Myanmar #Military Junta #Military Coup

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newstfionline · 4 years ago

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Monday, July 5, 2021

Jimmy, Rosalynn Carter mark 75 years of ‘full partnership’ (AP) The young midshipman needed a date one evening while he was home from the U.S. Naval Academy, so his younger sister paired him with a family friend who already had a crush. Nearly eight decades later, Jimmy and Rosalynn Carter are still together in the same tiny town where they were born, grew up and had that first outing. In between, they’ve traveled the world as Naval officer and military spouse, American president and first lady, and finally as human rights and public health ambassadors. “It’s a full partnership,” the 39th president told The Associated Press during a joint interview ahead of the couple’s 75th wedding anniversary on July 7. It will be another milestone for the longest-married presidential couple in American history. At 96, Carter also is the longest-lived of the 45 men who’ve served as chief executive. Yet even having reached that pinnacle, Carter has said often since leaving the Oval Office in 1981 that the most important decision he ever made wasn’t as head of state, commander in chief or even executive officer of a nuclear submarine in the early years of the Cold War. Rather, it was falling for Eleanor Rosalynn Smith in 1945 and marrying her the following summer. “My biggest secret is to marry the right person if you want to have a long-lasting marriage,” Carter said.

Tropical Storm Elsa nears Cuba amid fears of flooding (AP) Tropical Storm Elsa swept along Cuba’s southern coast early Monday, and forecasters said it could make landfall on the island’s central shore by midafternoon. By Sunday, Cuban officials had evacuated 180,000 people as a precaution against the possibility of heavy flooding from a storm that already battered several Caribbean islands, killing at least three people. Most of those evacuated stayed at relatives’ homes, others went to government shelters, and hundreds living in mountainous areas took refuge in caves prepared for emergencies. Elsa was forecast to cross over Cuba by Monday night and then head for Florida, where Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency in 15 counties, including in Miami-Dade County, where a high-rise condominium building collapsed last week.

Brazil Vaccine Scandal Imperils Bolsonaro as Protests Spread (NYT) The plot twists of a coronavirus vaccine kickback scandal that has rattled Brazil’s capital have been worthy of a reality TV show. The main stage has been a congressional hearing room, where scores of witnesses have been shedding light on the government’s chaotic response to the pandemic, which has killed more than 520,000 in the country. There has been plenty of yelling as the audacity and scope of a scheme by health ministry officials to solicit bribes from vaccine dealers have come into focus. The outrage drew tens of thousands of Brazilians to protest across several cities on Saturday, the third large wave of demonstrations in recent weeks. Much about the scandal, which federal prosecutors are investigating, remains unclear and in dispute. But the widening inquiry is likely to pose a major threat to President Jair Bolsonaro’s re-election bid next year—and perhaps even to his ability to serve out the remainder of his term.

Cyber attack against U.S. IT provider forces Swedish chain to close 800 stores (Reuters) The Swedish Coop grocery store chain closed all its 800 stores on Saturday after a ransomware attack on an American IT provider left it unable to operate its cash registers. Hundreds of American businesses were hit on Friday by an unusually sophisticated attack that hijacked widely used technology management software from a Miami-based supplier called Kaseya. According to Coop, one of Sweden’s biggest grocery chains, a tool used to remotely update its checkout tills was affected by the attack, meaning payments could not be taken. State railways services and a pharmacy chain also suffered disruption.

EU deploys assistance for Cyprus as huge forest fire rages (Reuters) The European Union on Saturday deployed aerial assistance to help Cyprus contain a huge forest fire raging north of the cities of Limassol and Larnaca, a blaze one official called the worst on record. The blaze, fanned by strong winds, affected at least six communities in the foothills of the Troodos mountain range, an area of pine forest and densely vegetated shrubland. “It is the worst forest fire in the history of Cyprus,” Forestries Department Director Charalambos Alexandrou told Cyprus’s Omega TV.

Japan’s leader pushes rescue after deadly mudslide hits town (AP) More than 1,000 soldiers, firefighters and police on Sunday waded through a giant mudslide that ripped through a resort town southwest of Tokyo, killing at least two people and leaving about 20 missing as it swept away houses and cars. Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga told reporters 19 people had been rescued, and 130 homes and other buildings were damaged in Atami. Two people were dead, but more were feared missing, he said speaking after an emergency Cabinet meeting. Earlier, disaster officials said 20 were unaccounted for, but warned the number may rise. Troops, firefighters and other rescue workers, backed by three coast guard ships, were working to clear the mud from the streets of Atami and reach those believed to be trapped or carried away. They were barely visible in the rainfall and thick fog except for the their hard hats. Six military drones were being flown to help in the search.

Some Chinese shun grueling careers for ‘low-desire life’ (AP) Fed up with work stress, Guo Jianlong quit a newspaper job in Beijing and moved to China’s mountain southwest to “lie flat.” Guo joined a small but visible handful of Chinese urban professionals who are rattling the ruling Communist Party by rejecting grueling careers for a “low-desire life.” That is clashing with the party’s message of success and consumerism as its celebrates the 100th anniversary of its founding. “Lying flat” is a “resistance movement” to a “cycle of horror” from high-pressure Chinese schools to jobs with seemingly endless work hours, novelist Liao Zenghu wrote in Caixin, the country’s most prominent business magazine. “In today’s society, our every move is monitored and every action criticized,” Liao wrote. “Is there any more rebellious act than to simply ‘lie flat?’” It isn’t clear how many people have gone so far as to quit their jobs or move out of major cities. Judging by packed rush hour subways in Beijing and Shanghai, most young Chinese slog away at the best jobs they can get. Still, the ruling party is trying to discourage the trend.

Myanmar forces kill 25 in raid on town, resident and media say (Reuters) Myanmar security forces killed at least 25 people on Friday in a confrontation with opponents of the military junta at a town in the centre of the Southeast Asian nation, a resident and Myanmar-language media said on Sunday. Myanmar has been plunged into chaos by the Feb. 1 coup against elected leader Aung San Suu Kyi, with violence flaring in many parts of the country of more than 53 million people.

Philippine military plane crashes, 45 dead, 49 rescued (AP) A Philippine air force C-130 aircraft carrying combat troops crashed in a southern province while landing Sunday, killing at least 42 army soldiers on board and three civilians on the ground, while 49 were rescued from the burning wreckage, officials said. Some soldiers were seen jumping off the aircraft before it crashed and exploded around noon in the periphery of the Jolo airport in Sulu province, military officials said. Three of six villagers who were hit on the ground have died.

Former South African president Jacob Zuma delays prison deadline with last-ditch legal maneuver (CNN) Jacob Zuma and his lawyers successfully delayed the former South African president’s prison sentence for contempt of court on Saturday when the country’s top court agreed to hear his application for a review of their decision to sentence him to 15 months in prison. In the application, 79-year-old Zuma and his lawyers claimed that the sentence threatened his life and that the Constitutional Court’s decision was unfair to their client. This comes after Zuma was ordered to hand himself in to a police station in his hometown Nkandla or Johannesburg by the end of this Sunday. Failing that, the police were given three days to bring him in. The Constitutional Court hearing will take place on July 12. Some legal analysts say the application is highly unlikely to succeed, but it buys Zuma more time.

Pope doing well after intestinal surgery, Vatican says (Reuters) Pope Francis is doing well following intestinal surgery, the Vatican said on Sunday after the 84-year-old pontiff was hospitalised for the first time since his election in 2013. Spokesman Matteo Bruni said in a statement that the pontiff "responded well" to the surgery, which was done under general aesthesia and which the Vatican had said earlier had been scheduled and not prompted by an emergency. Francis underwent surgery for symptomatic diverticular stenosis of the colon, a condition where sac-like pouches protrude from the muscular layer of the colon, leading it to become narrow. The operation was carried out by a 10-person medical team.

#headlines #news

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theliberaltony · 5 years ago

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via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

After a stint as the Democratic primary front-runner, Sen. Bernie Sanders’s revolution is rapidly stalling. After a series of surprising losses on Super Tuesday, he lost again in Michigan earlier this week, despite spending days campaigning across the state.

In contest after contest, Sanders has struggled to make inroads with key Democratic constituencies — in particular, black voters and older voters. But there’s another trend that’s plagued him throughout the primary: He does poorly with women. According to aggregated exit polls from the states that have voted so far,1 Sanders’s support is 8 points lower among women than his support among men.

Sanders consistently gets less support from women

Vote share by gender in entrance and exit polls from completed state primaries and caucuses, by candidate

Sanders Biden State Men Women Diff. Men Women Diff. Iowa 26% 20% -6 16% 16% 0 New Hampshire 31 23 -8 8 8 0 Nevada 38 30 -8 18 17 -1 South Carolina 24 17 -7 48 49 +1 California 38 32 -6 19 28 +9 Texas 34 27 -7 33 33 0 North Carolina 27 21 -6 42 42 0 Virginia 29 19 -10 49 57 +8 Massachusetts 31 26 -5 34 34 0 Minnesota 37 25 -12 39 41 +2 Tennessee 27 23 -4 38 44 +6 Alabama 20 14 -6 61 65 +4 Oklahoma 30 21 -9 40 37 -3 Maine 38 29 -9 29 37 +8 Vermont 53 51 -2 24 20 -4 Washington 41 27 -14 28 36 +8 Missouri 38 32 -6 56 64 +8 Mississippi 18 12 -6 78 83 +5

Source: Edison Research

Sanders has consistently been at a disadvantage among women in this year’s primary. And that’s not a deficit that a Democratic primary candidate can simply ignore, since women make up a majority of the party’s electorate this year — 57 percent of primary voters so far.

“Consistently having lower support among women is a problem of optics because it makes it look like there’s something going on that prevents women from backing you,” said Kelly Dittmar, a political scientist at Rutgers University–Camden who studies gender and politics. “But it’s also an actual numbers issue because men are just a smaller proportion of the Democratic electorate. You need to do well among women in order to win the nomination.”

It’s hard to pin down a single reason why men seem to be more attracted to Sanders’s candidacy than women. There isn’t really evidence, for example, that Sanders is especially likely to attract supporters who display hostile feelings toward women. In a recent analysis, researchers for Data for Progress did find that gender bias kept some voters from supporting Warren — but Sanders’s supporters didn’t hold more sexist views than Biden’s. But there is evidence, according to an analysis by Dan Cassino, a political science professor at Fairleigh Dickinson University, that while support for Biden increases among voters with more sexist views, those with the most sexist views were disproportionately likely to favor Sanders. And sexism was higher, in general, among men.

“Educated Democrats who are quite sexist are disproportionately likely to be Sanders supporters,” said Cassino. “To be clear, there aren’t a lot of those people in the Democratic Party. But because of their education and social capital, they’re probably more inclined to tell people about their views and express them online.”

This doesn’t explain all of Sanders’s struggles with women. But his lopsided support among this group provides a window into some of the divisions that are roiling the Democratic primary electorate this year — particularly the limits of Sanders’s lefty, anti-establishment message and the aggression of his supporters at a moment when many Democratic voters are laser-focused on finding a candidate who can beat Trump.

At a Biden rally in Detroit last week, Mary Mckenney, 69, said that she hadn’t made up her mind about which candidate to support until the race narrowed to Biden and Sanders. Then, she said, her choice became very clear. “It’s not even that I don’t like Bernie’s ideas, I just think they can’t happen,” she said. “And I think if he’s the nominee there will just be more fighting and conflict. We need someone who can bring Democrats together.”

Views like Mckenney’s aren’t universal among Democratic women. Plenty of women are enthusiastic about Sanders — including Mckenney’s daughter Carrie, 43, who was standing next to her at the rally. But older women like Mckenney make up a much bigger share of the Democratic electorate, which makes them a disproportionately important group. So far, women over the age of 45 have made up 38 percent of Democratic primary voters, while women under the age of 45 only made up 19 percent. And the age gap that has emerged across the primary is almost certainly shaping women’s support for Sanders too: older women tend to be more moderate than younger women, which means they may be less likely to see Sanders’s calls to upend the status quo as feasible or appealing.

But generational fissures aren’t the whole story. Women of all ages told us they liked Sanders’s ideas but found aspects of his candidacy alienating. “I don’t have the same aversion to the DNC and the Democratic establishment that a lot of Bernie supporters seem to have,” said Tiffany Keane Schaefer, 31, who lives in Chicago and volunteered for Warren but is now undecided about who she’ll support. Schaefer told me she’s disturbed by some of the criticism Sanders allies levied against Warren for not endorsing Sanders after she dropped out. “Right now it feels like I am getting blasted every single day on social media about why Warren isn’t doing enough to help Sanders.” That antagonism makes Schaefer feel uncomfortable about the prospect of supporting Sanders, even though she’s closer to him on the issues than to Biden.

One of the central messages of Sanders’s campaign is the need to take on the political establishment — including the party whose nomination he is seeking. On the day before he won the Nevada caucuses, Sanders tweeted, “I’ve got news for the Republican establishment. I’ve got news for the Democratic establishment. They can’t stop us.”

That kind of message obviously appeals to people who are disaffected with the Democratic Party — but to people who don’t have a problem with the party, it can seem like an unnecessary risk. “I understand why the young people love Sanders — student debt, it’s a real problem,” said Grace Andrews, 79, who was waiting outside the Biden rally in Detroit with her grandson. “I just have a concern that he is not willing to make the compromises that are necessary in our political system, or work with people in the party who may not share his views.”

Women are especially likely to say that being a Democrat is an important part of who they are. According to our analysis of a Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape survey of likely primary voters administered from Feb. 20 to Feb 26, 63 percent of Democratic women say that their party affiliation is somewhat or very important to their identity, compared to 58 percent of Democratic men. That’s not an enormous difference, but it is statistically significant — it also lines up with other research that finds partisanship functions as a more important social identity for women than it does for men. Women over the age of 45 are especially likely (67 percent) to say being a Democrat is an important part of their identity.

Of course, not all women are turned off by the idea of radical changes to the system — including radical change to their own party. “It just feels like the Democratic Party has forgotten what it means to be the party of the working class,” said Diana Post, 30, who lives in Detroit and said she was torn between Warren and Sanders until Warren dropped out of the race. She now describes herself as a “big Sanders fan.” “We need someone more radical than what the establishment is putting forward, a candidate who can shake things up.”

Over the course of the primary, voters have been asked if they would prefer a candidate who agrees with them on the issues or a candidate who can beat Trump. According to the exit polls so far, women are likelier to be in the latter category: 65 percent of women say they would prefer a candidate who can defeat Trump, compared to 59 percent of men. That isn’t an overwhelming gap, to be sure, but it’s still noteworthy given that women make up a disproportionate share of the Democratic electorate. And in the primaries so far, voters who prioritize a candidate who can defeat Trump are disproportionately likely to support Biden.

That was where Ruth Vail, 77, said she had landed. She was standing on the University of Michigan quad, waiting with her 15-year-old grandson Leo to hear Sanders speak. But even though she was curious to hear what Sanders had to say, she said she’d probably be voting for Biden. “I think unfortunately it’s just going to be very easy to paint Sanders as an extremist, someone who’s a scary person who wants to change everything,” she said. “And I really just want a president who won’t keep me up at night, thinking about what he’s going to do next, thinking about who he’s going to appoint to the Supreme Court. The most important thing to me in this election is just ensuring that Donald Trump is no longer our president.”

Laura Bronner contributed research.

#IFTTT #Politics – FiveThirtyEight #politics #538 #Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Meredith Conroy

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opedguy · 2 years ago

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Biden Alienates Saudi Arabia

;LOS ANGELES (OnlineColumnist.com), Oct. 12l 2022.--Already alienating the Russian Federation and Communist China to the point of war, 79-year-old President Joe Biden takes out his ire on Saudi Arabia, all because Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman won’t increase oil production. Biden propensity to alienate U.S. allies and adversaries has been extraordinary, leaving U.S. national security in the most vulnerable spot since WW II. Biden started a proxy war using Ukrainian troops against he Russian Federation, promising to remove Putin from power and to degrade the Russian military to the point it can no longer wage war. When Putin invaded Ukraine Feb. 24, Biden has been supplying Kiev with combat weapons for months, driving the Kremlin to take what Russian President Vladimir Putin calls “special military operation,” essentially to demilitarize Ukraine. So when Biden started his proxy war against Putin, he’d been supplying Kiev arms for months.

Biden’s tendency to lash out at any country that doesn’t acquiesce to his Once demands present problems for U.S. foreign policy. Saudi Arabia has been a consistent ally in the Middle East to the United States for generations, reliably supply oil until the 1973 OPEC oil embargo drove prices through the roof, at least for that time, creating widespread shortages of gasoline at the pumps. Once the OPEC embargo took place, the U.S. set a long course of energy independence, long before anyone knew anything about global warming or climate change. Under former President Donald Trump’s four years in office, he did everything possible to incentivize the fracking industry to ramp up U.S. oil production. Once Biden took office, he did everything possible to dismantle Trump’s energy independence, making a renewed push for alternative energy industry.

Less than two years later, Biden finds himself heading into a Midterm election that could swing the House and Senate back to Republicans, making the next two years of his presidency gridlock. Biden capitulated with the radical fringe of his party led by 32-year-old Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to scuttle the Keystone XL pipeline, approved by Trump, and commited to the fracking industry. Biden’s proxy war in Ukraine boycotted all Russian oil, accounting to 5% of the U.S. import market, creating shortages and skyrocketing prices. Things were far worse in the U.K. and European Union, where Russia supplies some 25% of gasoline and 40% of natural gas. Facing a long cold winter, Europe doesn’t know how it’s going to make up for the loss of Russian energy supplies. What’s known for sure is that energy prices are up over 100% in the U.K. and EU.

Biden’s approach to the Ukraine War didn’t take into account the oil shock created worldwide by a Russian oil embargo. If that weren’t bad enough creating global inflation and recession, Biden now attacks Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for not ramping up more Saudi oil production. Biden’s been told that OPEC has set strict production limits, all designed to boos the price of oil on world markets. Biden blames Bin Salman because he recklessly ended U.S. fossil fuel independence. “There’s going to be some consequences for what they’ve don with Russia,” Biden said of Saudi Arabia, knowing that Russia is an integral part of the OPEC oil cartel. “I’m not going to get into what I’d consider and what I have in mind. But there will be—there will be consequences,” Biden said. Biden said in 2020 that he would never recognize Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

Biden and the U.S. press accuse Bin Salman of ordering the Oct. 2, 2018 hit on Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi. Khashoggi entered the Saudi Embassy in Istanbul and never came out, at least alive. Biden knows that 86-year-old Saudi King Salman no longer runs the Kingdom. That duty was handed over to Bin Salman years ago. But that didn’t stop Biden from visiting Bin Salman July 15, begging the Crown Prince to increase oil exports to the U.S. Biden’s visit backfired, with Bin Salman knowing Biden accuses him of murdering Khashoggi Oct. 2, 2018. Biden was pushed to visit Bin Salman because high energy prices are killing Democrat prospects in the Midterm election. Whether Biden admits it or not, he blames Bin Salman for no bailing Democrats out before the Nov. 8 Midterm election. Bad economic news has voters looking away from Democrats.

Threatening Saudi Arabia is no way to treat a traditional ally, especially one Biden counts on to deal with future energy needs. With little prospects of Biden returning to Trump’s fracking industry, the U.S. grows more dependent on foreign suppliers for fossil fuels. Biden’s Russian oil embargo has precipitated the worst inflation in over 40 years, prompting the Federal Reserve Board to continue hiking interest rates. Biden’s proxy war against the Russian Federation has created the most dangerous security situation since WW II. Even in the depth of the Cold War, the U.S. never went to war against the Soviet Union. Biden’s proxy war against the Russian Federation has driven the worst inflation in 40 years. Apart from the obvious risks of escalation to WW III on the European Continent, the prospect of worldwide wide recession looms high as the war goes on.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analzying spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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accuratenewsng · 2 years ago

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2023: Civil Defence to deploy 30,000 operatives

The Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC) is to deploy 30,000 operatives to ensure peace during the upcoming general elections in Nigeria. Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation is billed for another general election, starting on Feb. 25 next year, when the president and vice-president will be elected. A crowded field of 18 political parties are expected to field candidates, in a…

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#2023 general election #NSCDC

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weekinethereum · 6 years ago

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December 14, 2018 Week in Ethereum News

News and Links

Layer 1

[Eth 2] Danny Ryan’s state of the spec

[Eth 2] Latest Eth 2 implementers call. Agenda to follow along.

[Eth 2] What’s New in Eth2

[Eth 2] Latest Prysmatic dev update

[Eth 2] Lighthouse dev update

[Eth 2] Coindesk profiles the teams building Eth2

[ewasm] Latest Ewasm call.

[1 -> 2] When stable, the beacon chain to finalize the POW chain

[Eth1] State Rent proposal update

[Eth1] How types of contracts would handle contract state-root-plus-witness architecture

NEAR: Unsolved problems in blockchain sharding

Boneh, Bünz, Fisch: Batching Techniques for Accumulators for stateless chains

Justin Drake Ethereum 3.0 tweet

Layer 2

Storj is planning to use Raiden for its payments. Raiden v0.19

Building MixEth as a state channel dapp with Counterfactual

Celer’s team to play their state channel Gomoku game for real Eth

gas payment abstraction in layer 2

prime numbers to transactions instead of coins?

should fraudulent exit bonds be partially burned?

Demo snark for Plasma Cash and Cashflow history compaction

SKALE releases architecture of their sidechain network

Stuff for developers

Ethereum on ARM. Constantinople-ready images

registry-builder: A modular approach to building TCRs from LevelK

7 uses cases with 3box.js

Gnosis Apollo to create your own prediction market interface or tournament

Schedule your token transfers on MyCrypto using Ethereum Alarm Clock

BudgetBox from Colony. Binary choices turned into budget percentages, and can be done onchain. Github

web3j v4.1 for Android

You can now integrate Gitcoin’s Kudos into your app. Gitcoin also hit 500k in issues.

A quick Austin Griffith tutorial on Commit/Reveal

Matt Tyndall’s counterfactual loan repayment for Dharma

Linkdrops: let people send crypto embedded in URLs without gas/wallets

Panoramix decompiler using symbolic execution instead of static analysis

Streamr’s cold chain monitoring tutorial

Dennis Peterson: Spam protection with probabilistic payments and cheap doublespending protection

How to debug with Tenderly and Truffle

A teaser for Harvey fuzzer from ConsenSys Diligence

Automated Eth code exploiter and similar how to scan and steal ETH

Hard fork enabled client releases

Geth v1.8.20 - hard fork enabled, Puppeth improvements, etc

Parity Ethereum 2.2.5-beta and Parity Ethereum 2.1.10-stable hardfork enabled

Trinity v0.1.0-alpha.20 Constantinople support and genesis file support

Ecosystem

Opera releases native Eth wallet and dapp browser for Android. Download. Slick and well worth checking out.

How I learned Solidity basics for free as a noob dev

Uncle rate keeps falling. Time to start nudging up the gaslimit?

Monetary policy chart of historic and future Ether issuance

All the impressive ETHSingapore submissions and winners. Some of Josh Stark’s favorites.

A comparison of ETHSanFrancisco and EOS SF hackathons

Ethereum product management interviews. Also, video of Eth PMs call

Alethio’s EthStats block explorer

Ecosystem job listings

Web3Foundation, Validity Labs and Status working on Whisper alternative

Live on mainnet

OriginTrail: data exchange in supply chains protocol

Enterprise

Quorum v2.2.0

Cheddar suggests Facebook wants to do its own basechain and is recruiting

Why Enterprise Ethereum is way more than DLT

See OriginTrail above

Governance and Standards

ProgPOW testnet block explorer

A quick case study on Aragon’s AGP1 proposal

Evolution of a security token standard

ERC1643: Document Management Standard

ERC1644: Controller Token Operation Standard

ERC1666: Decentralized Autonomous Zero-identity Protocol

ERC1613: Gas stations network

Application layer

Cellarius first anthology released. Free to MetaMask users.

Golem’s Graphene-ng demo part2

XYO Network to launch satellite named EtherX on SpaceX’s Falcon9 in next few months

Data auditing and repair with Storj

The Fluidity stack to allow liquid secondary markets

Vitalik tweetstorm on non-financial apps

Onchain mutual insurance to return insurance to its origin: communities sharing risk

p2p loan offers on Bloqboard using Dharma

Ujo Portal out of beta and in version1.

KyberNetwork’s monthly update - new reserves, wBTC updated

Liquality offers crosschain swap of testnet Eth for Bitcoin. You can also get a good price buying Eth with Summa’s crosschain swap

GnosisSafe users can pay gas fees in OWL.

Maker proposal to reduce stability fee from 2.5% to 0.5%. Vote Dec 17

Augur’s controversial US House elections market has been reported as Republican. This is obviously nonsense because no one would have bet on that market and it makes no sense to encourage wordsmith trickery. This is a huge test of Augur and will be interesting to watch. Also, v1.8.4 out with new node endpoint. And a nice Augur 2018 review from Guesser

Interviews, Podcasts, Videos, Talks

All Devcon4 videos and photos

Arthur Falls uploads some Joe Lubin Devcon3 video footage

Video: a Wolfram language platform for Ethereum

Zero Knowledge ETHSingapore episode

Open Block Explorers community call

Blockchain Insider with Vitalik Buterin

Grid+ Alex Miller and Karl Kreder on Hashing It Out

Prysmatic’s Preston Van Loon and Raul Jordan on Into the Ether

Andrew Keys talks ConsenSys2.0 with Laura Shin

Tokens / Business / Regulation

Chris Burniske argues Ether and Bitcoin prices are undervalued based on fundamentals

4 eras of blockchain computing: degrees of composability from Jesse Walden

CFTC requests input. EthHub and Brooklyn Project are both crowd sourcing responses

Basecoin/Basis quits after raising ~130m and returns money to its VCs, blaming the SEC. I feel there may be more to come with this story.

MythX (formerly Mythril) decides against its announced token

Don’t think there was any doubt, but Coinbase is listing tokens. 30 assets up for consideration

Bonding curve intuition and parameterization

Harberger taxes in action on r/ethtrader banners

Simon de la Rouviere: Desire paths and recommendation markets

General

Zero-Knowledge Proofs Starter Pack

Support starving Venezuelans by buying NFT Christmas cards through Giveth. Easy onboarding for your non-crypto friends.

Results of Bounties Network paying local to participate in Manila Bay beach cleanup. Some interesting UX lessons.

Terra-Bridge: Transfer between Ethereum and Bitcoin protocol

CMEGroup puts up an Intro to Ether course

Zilliqa testnet v3 is live and in feature freeze ahead of January mainnet release. It also got an AWS case study

Boerse Stuttgart and SolarisBank say in next 6 months they’ll launch crypto trading platform in Europe

The state of Surveillance Capitalism is dire: your apps are tracking your location and selling it. It’s very easy to figure out who you are from your location. Bring on web3!

Dates of Note

Upcoming dates of note (new in bold):

Dec 17 - vote to reduce Maker stability fee

Jan 10 - Mobi Grand Challenge hackathon ends

Jan ~15 - Constantinople hard fork at block 7080000

Jan 29-30 - AraCon (Berlin)

Feb 7-8 - Melonport’s M1 conf (Zug)

Feb 15-17 - ETHDenver hackathon (ETHGlobal) next hacker application round closes December 31st

Feb 23-25 - EthAustin hackathon (EthUniversal)

Mar 4 - Ethereum Magicians (Paris)

Mar 5-7 - EthCC (Paris)

Mar 27 - Infura end of legacy key support (Jan 23 begins Project ID prioritization)

Apr 19-21 - ETHCapetown

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1 note · View note

ve-man-blog · 6 years ago

Text

Ontario Municipality Election 2018 – Tamil Candidates in Markham and Scarborough – Few Observations

Tamils living in Canada (or Canadian Tamils), especially in Ontario have involved in Canadian politics for a long time. Many individuals have run for MP, MPP, City Councillor as well as School Board Trustees in the past 15 years. Compared to the past election history of Canada, we had a larger number of Tamil candidates who ran for different positions in Toronto, Markham, Ajax and other regions this year. Among them, most of the Tamil candidates were running for office in Markham and Scarborough area.

It is obvious that there are many Canadian Tamils who would like to see their fellow Tamil representatives shine in Canadian politics as they have shined in other positions. However, when more than one Tamil Candidate run for an office in same electorate, Tamil community has been divided and it has been criticized by Tamil media and Tamil community at large. Are the valid criticisms? Should Canadian Tamils collectively choose one Tamil candidate to run for an office in the future?

The purpose of this review is to look at how Tamil candidates conducted their campaigns and whether their strategies were successful and what are factors influenced he results.

Scarborough -City of Toronto Councillors

There were three Tamil candidates who ran for Councillor Position for Toronto City Councillor in three different wards in Scarborough. The promises by all the candidates were around the following key issues,

· Lesser crime and safer city

· Better roadways and more transit facilities – including subway and LRT

· More affordable housing for low income families and newcomers

· More funding for health and mental health

The following were the three Tamil candidates in Scarborough.

1. Ward 23 Scarboorugh North – Neethan Saba

2. Ward 24 Scarborough Guildwood – Priyanth Nallaratnam

3. Ward 25 Scarborough Rouge Park – Neethan Shan

Among those three candidates, Neethan Shan is a well-known candidate among Tamil Community. He served as a Trustee in York region – 2006 to 2010 and Toronto TDSB trustee from 2016 to 2017 and as Toronto city Councillor from Feb 2017 to date. Among the three Tamil candidates, he has secured more votes in his electorate (40%). Neethan Saba has secured 13.5% of total votes in Ward 23 while Priyanth Nallaratnam has received 8.3% of total votes in Ward 24. Though all three were supported by Tamil voters and other communities and have received significant number of votes, none of them were able to win and secure a seat.

Their campaigns were decent in general and they didn’t waste their valuable time on tarnishing opponents’ image. Among these three, Neethan Shan proved his strong support, but has lost with very narrow gap of 154 votes. I believe that the recent changes imposed by Provincial government which changed the catchment area has impacted his victory. As his boundary is expanded to South east Scarborough, Neethan Shan had to work hard in a short period of time to convince lots of conservatives that live in South section of Scarborough Rouge-Park electorate. On the other hand his affiliation with key Tamil organizations in the past has also impacted positively as well as negatively.

Scarborough - School Trustees

If we look at the TDSB School Board Trustee election in Toronto, there were six Tamil candidates who ran for these positions in different wards. Many residents believe that School board trustee is a stepping stone position to becoming a Councillor or MPP or MP in the future. They believe that a candidate tries to become a school trustee to get popular in the community and to expand their social network for their future goal. However, some of the candidates would consider this position to genuinely contribute to shaping the education system in Ontario.

The promises/ commitments given by these trustee candidates were around providing better education, improve the curriculum by updating them, prioritize mental health support, give more attention to arts and culture, etc. There were 6 Tamil candidates in the recent Trustee election in Scarborough.

1. Ward 18 – Parthi Kandavel – 22.3% of total votes and he won

2. Ward 21 – Yarlini Rajakulasingham – 31.5% of total votes and she won

3. Ward 21 – Ganesh Kulaserampillai – 3.8% of total votes

4. Ward 22 – Dr. Anu Sriskandarajah – 36.3% of total votes and she won

5. Ward 22 – Akila Rudrasingam – 10% of total votes

6. Ward 22 – Tharshigan Vijayapalan – 4.6% of total votes

Parthi Kandavel from ward 18 has already completed one term as Trustee and he was able to talk about achievements in the past during this election campaign. He has launched a decent campaign this time too as he did in the past. I wouldn’t say it was an easy win for him as he got only 22% of the total votes and the candidate secured second position has secured 20% of the votes.

As you see the results in Ward 21 – Yarlini got 32% votes. If we look at the campaign method of Yarlini, she used only positive messages in her campaign. There were criticism that she is running only because her father was supporting her financially therefore able to run a good campaign. However, shouldn’t we expect a candidate to use all the resources to win in an election? Despite of all the criticisms, she has proven that she is capable of winning the election by securing votes from other communities as well. Roy Hu lost to her just by 276 votes

Ward 22 - Among all the wards in Scarborough this is the only ward we had three Tamil candidates for the seat. However, Anu Sriskandarajah got 36% of the votes and set a clear victory where next person in the list got only 14% of votes. Interestingly, Akila Rudarasingham campaigned that she was the first Tamil candidate to register to run for this position. I was wondering since when registering first to run for an office became a qualification to win in the election? I believe that Anu’s education background was a strong asset for her in the election.

More interesting fact of this election is the winners of ward 18 and ward 22 are husband and wife. But, it was not highlighted or no memes or trolling videos were created to criticize them whereas a candidate in Markham ward 7 was highly criticized by Tamils.

Both winning candidates of Ward 18 & 22 were smart enough to use both ethnic resources and main stream media for their campaign. Both had very good online presence during their campaign and both won in their constituency. It is a rare occasion for husband and wife to win in two wards in an election in one city.

Markham - Councillors & Regional Councillors

If we look at the Candidates in Markham, Niran Jeyanesan ran in the election with “I am the only Tamil candidate” slogan for regional councillor position. Even the Tamil media decided to support him as he was the only “Tamil” Candidate for Regional Councillor Position. However, he got only 14, 984 votes and secured 8th position out of 12 candidates. Interestingly in Ward 4 and 8 also we had only one Tamil candidate who ran for City Councillor position. However, Tamil media didn’t endorse those two candidates as they did for Niran Jeyanesan.

Among all the candidates for council and regional council, Niran Jeyanesan and Killi Chelliah put Safety first. Killi was more concerned about Road safety compared to other candidates. Niran has been working for police service and he highlighted his transferrable skills on safety during his campaign. Malar and Killi both had concern about better flow of traffic in Markham area, safety city, better city services including snow removal, services for seniors and other residents.

City Councillor Positions – there were 8 candidates

1. Ward 4 - Shaarmina A. Rodrigo – She got 372 votes

2. Ward 5 – Sri Sivasubramaniam – He got only 734 votes

3. Ward 5 – Jeremiah Vijeyaratnam – He got 525 votes

4. Ward 7 – Kethika Logan Kanapathi – She got 2,635 votes and stands 2nd

5. Ward 7 – Killi Chelliah – He got 1,961 votes and became 3rd in the ward

6. Ward 7 – Malar Varatharaja – She got 1,587 votes and stands 4th

7. Ward 7 – Sothy Sella – He got 481 votes

8. Ward 7 – Elauppillai Srinathan – He got only 236 votes

9. Ward 8 - Joseph (Mohan) Remisiar – 2,599 votes

Tamil community didn’t talk much about ward 4, 5 & 8. Though, there were two Tamil candidates who ran in Ward 5, discussion about Ward 5 wasn’t the “Talk of the Town”. However, I personally liked Joseph’s (Ward 8) message to the public. He asked people to come out to vote – not necessarily to him. He clearly promoted democracy.

The biggest battle amongst Tamil candidates was observed in Ward 7. I noticed that some candidates typically following the tactics used in Sri Lanka and India to win the election. Slogans like “I registered first”, “I am the most qualified candidate”, “I am the only candidate ran in the previous election”, “I am already winning and don’t waste your votes by casting for others”, “We can’t allow family members to run in the election”, etc. were widely used in this ward during last few weeks of the election campaign.

Logan Kanapathi was criticized for encouraging his daughter to run in the same ward where he was ruling for 12 years. Other candidates mentioned about this in their campaign. Some people went one step further to say there is a under the table deal between Usman and Logan. However, Logan proved that he still has strong support. I am not sure if he used this election to check the support he has in ward 7 and whether there is a possibility for his daughter to win in the future.

Malar Varatharajah had a very good social media presence. She has also used her professional skills in her campaign. Many Tamils assumed that she would win. However, she became 4th in the race. Similarly, Killi Chelliah entered the contest with strong background and a strong volunteer team to work for him. He was able to secure 3rd position. Many people mentioned that he should have used his picture at least in his big signs. As he didn’t use his picture in public spaces, for many other community he would have been an unknown candidate.

Even after the election, supporters of the Ward 7 candidates are blaming each other for their defeat. Tamil media also gave lots of attention to ward 7 during the election. There were individual also either campaigned in support or against a candidate. For example, Mr. Kathi Selvakumar released three different videos during the campaign period. He openly supported Malar Varatharajah in one video. Later he directly criticize and condemned Killi Chelliah in other video. But, Malar couldn’t beat Killi in the election. Kethika and Malar have used “Gender” card in their campaign. In general, all the Tamil candidates tried all different strategies to win the election.

Ward 7 situation was a “Talk of the Town” for days after the election as people continued to discuss about this ward on social media. Thanks to Sri Lankan political situation which gave new topic for Tamils to talk. There were number of complaints about election malpractices in ward 7. Malpractices includes, removing signs of other candidates, installing signs without home owner’s permission, taking the laptop to houses and asking residents to vote online, changing the votes after casted, etc. However, those complaints are yet to be proved.

Markham - School Trustees

If we look at the Trustee position for Area 4 (Ward 7 & 8) of Markham,

1. Juanita Nathan and

2. Kavitha Senthil were running in the same Area and Juanita secured her position back.

There were stories that Logan tried to convince Kavitha to withdraw. Those who spread this story also questioned “Why doesn’t Logan withdraw his daughter’s application and let the other leading Tamil candidate to win and secure the Ward 7 seat within Tamil community”..

If we look at the election results of Trustee positions, it seems that they won their seats by targeting all the residents while giving adequate attention for Tamil voters. But, I am not sure whether candidates who ran for the Councillor positions in Markham and Scarborough targeted all the residents. They merely depended on Tamil votes. I believe candidates from Tamil communities have to come out of ethnocentric approach if they want to secure the seat.

If Tamil candidates are interested in running in the future election, they should consider the followings, in addition to their other preparations.

1. Hire a skilled campaign manager who follows ethics in election campaign.

2. Shouldn’t talk about other candidates (highlighting their weaknesses or mistakes) in your social media profile continuously. If you do so, you are giving a free (negative) publicity for them.

3. Develop your strategy to have multi-ethnic campaign team. Then only you can reach other communities.

4. Don’t depend on Tamil media alone for your success. Expand your network through other media outlets.

5. Hire volunteers from high-school and university to do the campaign for you. Depending on friends, families and social media groups alone will not bring you the victory.

6. Plan your campaign ahead of time. Start attending social and cultural events and record your presence as photos and videos – name them and save them for future use.

7. Attend the social and community campaigns and advocacy activities around systemic issues that affect residents – Ex: Discussion on safety, discussion on basic salary increase, transportation issues. This will help you to get to know more and more people over the time and when you go for election you already know many individuals from different ethnic background.

I would like to conclude my review with few questions. I have seen a very important question on social media during this election and similar question was asked in the past too. The question is “Why should a Tamil voter vote for a Tamil candidate?”

Is it a valid question or not?

Are we electing a candidate to take care of Tamil affairs or are we electing a person from our community to serve all the communities living in the area?

What qualification and quality a candidate should have to be a Trustee, Councillor, MPP or MP? Have we ever asked this question?

Do we have healthy discussion about each candidates?

What do we do after the election? What is our post-election civic contribution?

Are we using the elected officials for our own benefit or for a common interest?

Are we keeping them accountable for what they promised to do?

Finally, do we have the right answers for all the above questions?

1 note · View note

superbexpertflower · 3 years ago

Text

25.11.21 Politics & Finance

Kindly Pray and Prophesy in the Name of Lord Jesus Christ that MPLADS/ MLALADS funds should be abolished in India & Misused fund should recover from respective MP/MLAs and disqualify the legislators to contest elections in their lifetime & Ban their offspring, siblings, relatives to contest elections and government jobs for next 99 years in all states of India to make corruption free India for inclusive growth of India.

Ref: 14.11.21,05 May 2020 Hindu -English, 06.Mar. 2011 Business Today, 25.Feb.2019 & 04.Jun.2019 News18.com, 06.Apr.2020 The Print, 06 May 2020 Opindia, 21 Apr 2020 Business Line, 15. Aug.2010 Hindustan Times, 30July 2013 rediffnews

(Under the Member of Parliament Local Area Development Scheme, Every MP is entitled to Rs 5 crore a year, that is Rs 3950 crore for the 790 members. The fund planned to utilize for creation of durable community assets and for provision of basic facilities, including community infrastructure based on locally felt needs. A Loksabha member can recommend works in his constituency alone , while a Rajya Sabha member can use the funds for works anywhere in a state. Actually this scheme money not directly go to the account of the MPs. They can only recommend works. Thereafter it is the responsibility of the district authorities to sanction , execute and complete the works within stipulated period. More money is released only on receipt of the completion certificate. The Ministry of Statistics and Programme implementation monitors the scheme. But Since inception this MPLAD Scheme has been mired in controversy and breeds corruption. MPLADS has a flawed idea that encouraged institutionalised corruption. This scheme is poorly monitored, plagued with misreporting and unnecessary parallel bureaucracy. There were many lacunas in the administration of the scheme at the ground level and often the MPs have deviated this money from the original purpose of the scheme. MPLADS funds mostly underutilised and misused.There seems no local area development of constituency but only self development of MPs. Unfortunately this scheme have a constitutional validity in supreme court . So the taxpayers money provided to Indian Member of Parliament for public interest work should be stop immediately.

It was launched during the Narasimha Rao Government in 1993 with the grant of Rs 50 Lakh a year to each MP. This sum was increased to Rs 1 crore during 1994-95. The third revision to Rs 2 crore happened in 1997 -98. The United Progressive Alliance Government in 2011-12 raised the annual entitlement to Rs 5 crore. There have been regular demands from MPs across party lines to increase the amount further. Actually this scheme was launched by Shri. Narasimha Rao as a part of package to buy support and trying to keep MPs for his coalition minority government. As Congress Concept, this was a kind of bribe paid at that time by the Union Congress government to retain their coalition supporting MPs. Now this MPLADS becomes a money making machine for unscrupulous MPs. Many systematic weakness affecting the implementation of MPLADS has been persisting since its inception. They spent less in beginning of their term and spend balance amount on final year before the general election to woo the voters. Public Accounts Committee (PAC) of the Parliament and Planning Commission had termed MPLADS useless and corruption generating. Rahul Gandhi himself wanted this scheme to be scrapped before the general election in 2014, but it is quite interesting to see how politicians behave differently before and after elections. Political Parties had made corruption in various ways. MPLADS is one of the many ways where corruption and bribery were legalised. So the Government must discontinue this MPLADS scheme, so that taxpayers money can be used in a better way.

HOW MPLADS FUND MISUSED BY MPs

1. Assetts allegedly created under the scheme could not be traced by the surveyors. Prohibited projects that MPs are recommending. 2. MPs investing these funds in private trusts and societies created by them. Biggest area of misuse is allocated of these funds to trusts and societies often controlled by the MPs themselves. 3. Repeat expenditure on a length of road via MPLADS after the same contract has been executed under MLALADS a similar constituency development scheme for state legislators. 4.MPs recommend work for NGOs, Clubs and Educational institutions , the beneficiary institution were themselves appointed as a Implement agencies for the projects. Diversion of computers bought for schools to commercial enterprises and supply of computer to private educational institutions. Frauds happening in some places, school class rooms constructed by village educational committees were nowhere to be found. 5. Community Centres built with MPLADS funds being commercially let out by the beneficiary agencies of MP's interest group. Construction of shopping complexes to promote private enterprises. Funds misused to construct MPs Property and their relatives. In 2009, Sakshi Maharaj , a Rajyasabha member from Utterpredesh released Rs 25 Lakh from his Local Area Development fund to his own private college. By this Public Money have gone down the drain not for development of their constituency but their own wealth creation. So this MPLADS must be scrapped.

MODUS OPERANDI OF MISUSE OF MPLADS BY OUR MP'S

This scheme gives MPs discretion in deciding which public works projects to recommend to district officials. This Scheme gives the executive functions to Legislators. There are argument that MPs only recommend projects but the final choice and implementation rest with district Authorities is strange. There are hardly any Authorities in the district who have the courage or the gumption to defy the wishes of an MP. While this implementation is officially in the hands of the district bureaucracy, there are several channels through which MPs can influence the process. District authorities often come under pressure to appoint an implementation agencies of MP Choice. MPLAD fund has been released on basis of forged documents. MPs constantly resisting transparency and accountability and Insisting on choosing the implementing agencies and want to control payments to contractors. CAG ( Comptroller and Auditor General) found that contracts were awarded without adopting standard tendering process. In some cases contractors were also the beneficiaries. It is widely believed that MPLADS funds are channelled to contractors who give kickbacks to MP. It is widely alleged that MPs use these funds to get a percentage of Commission from contractors. To misuse this fund great nexus build up happen between politicians, contractors and bureaucrats. The Comptroller and Auditor General has examined this scheme lack of supervision at the district level and gross violation of guidelines by MPs. Another irregularity was the absence of financial sanction and administrative approval. Sofar Government has not taken any initiative to create the administrative infrastructure to monitor the scheme at the district level. The response of parliamentary committee on MPLADS fraud with all the evidence was not yield any fruitful outcome for citizens development. Even though the evils of this scheme were well known for years, why was it still running? So to Ensure corruption free India, We make Fix our MPs & MLAs first and the system will fix itself by scrapping MPLADS and MLALADS. So We should Pray and Prophesy for that those who misused the MPLADS/ MLALADS funds must be right to recall from Legislative role for incompetence corruption and disqualify from election on their life time and not allowed to contest elections/ government employment for their offspring, Siblings and relatives for next 99years & Should recover the misused money from respective MPs/ MLAs , district collectors and officials responsible for fraud committee.

MPLADS/ MLALADS Schemes had failed to yield the desired results. This scheme allowed to handle the funds for his/her political advantage. There is a tendency among MPs to spend the funds in place where they want to increase their popularity rather than where they are badly needed. Our Panchayats and Municipalities are starved of funds to perform their constitutionally assigned role, while MPs and MLAs enjoy the privilege of an uninterrupted yearly flow of funds to do the job of panchayats and Municipalities. MP/ MLA funds are nothing but a sort of attempted bribery to elected representatives for run the ruling coalition governments in India. So this scheme politically wrong and morally improper. I don't say all MP/ MLAs are dishonest, but I don't want a single MP / MLA to be suspected of dishonesty on account of MPLADS/ MLALADS Scheme. It only gives scope for corruption at an individual MP/MLA's level and creates suspicion in the minds of the people. So this MP/ MLA Local area development schemes should be abolished in India. MP/ MLAs should make law , make policies and not perform the role of the executive. Under India's constitution, MP/ MLA's don't have no executive power which MPLADS/MLALADS illegimately gives them. It is right time for politicians to surrender their discretionary spending power for questionable local area development as well as their wealth development for betterment of real development for our country.

In Present Electoral systems money only brings a candidate in the contest and if one doesn't have money, he or she is not even in the contest. No Party , no candidate in India contests elections and spend less than the Rs 70 Lakh stipulated by the election commission. For every election roughly takes 1-2 crore for an assembly candidate and 6-7 crore for a Loksabha aspirant to strengthen his or her chances of winning. illegal cash flows in our elections. The 2019 Loksabha election most expensive ever anywhere in world as Rs 60000 crores spend in India. There are at least 75 to 85 seats where individual candidates spend more than 40 crores in 2019 loksabha election which is over 50 times higher than expenditure limit of Rs 77 Lakh mandated by the election commission per candidate in a MP constituency. Where does all the money come from? How difficult is it for a common citizen to fight elections on his/her own. With such a huge amount of cash flowing during the elections what are the chances for a common citizen to fight election without any political finding or corporate donation? So Elections in India can no longer be fight by commoner. This should be changed in India.

BIBLE Talks About Misuse of MPLADS/ MLALADS Fund

one sinner destroys much good.

Ecclesiastes 9:18

who destroy whole households, teaching things they ought not, for the sake of sordid gain.

Titus 1:11

Because sentence against an evil deed is not executed speedily, therefore the heart of the sons of men among them is fully set on doing evil.

Ecclesiastes 8:11

A good man is gracious and lends. He will conduct his dealings with discretion.

Psalms 112:5

We are arranging things so that no one will blame us for the way this large gift is administered by us, preparing matters with integrity, not only in the sight of the Lord, but also in the sight of men.

2 Corinthians 8:20-21

We are giving no offense in anything, so that our ministry will not be not blamed, but in everything we show ourselves to be servants of God

2 Corinthians 6:3-4

Feed the flock of God which is among you, serving as overseers, not by compulsion, but willingly; not for sordid gain, but with a ready mind; not like lords over God’s inheritance, but being examples to the flock.

1 Peter 5:2-3

18 பாவியான ஒருவன் மிகுந்த நன்மையைக் கெடுப்பான்.

பிரசங்கி 9

11 அவர்கள் இழிவான ஆதாயத்துக்காகத் தகாதவைகளை உபதேசித்து, முழுக்குடும்பங்களையும் கவிழ்த்துப்போடுகிறார்கள்.

தீத்து 1

11 துர்க்கிரியைக்குத்தக்க தண்டனை சீக்கிரமாய் நடவாதபடியால், மனுபுத்திரரின் இருதயம் பொல்லாப்பைச் செய்ய அவர்களுக்குள்ளே துணிகரங்கொண்டிருக்கிறது.

பிரசங்கி 8

5 இரங்கிக் கடன்கொடுத்து, தன் காரியங்களை நியாயமானபடி நடப்பிக்கிற மனுஷன் பாக்கியவான்.

சங்கீதம் 112

20 எங்கள் ஊழியத்தினாலே சேர்க்கப்படும் இந்த மிகுதியான தர்மப்பணத்தைக் குறித்து ஒருவனும் எங்களைக் குற்றப்படுத்தாதபடிக்கு நாங்கள் எச்சரிக்கையாயிருந்து,

2 கொரிந்தியர் 8:20

21 கர்த்தருக்கு முன்பாகமாத்திரமல்ல, மனுஷருக்கு முன்பாகவும் யோக்கியமானவைகளைச் செய்ய நாடுகிறோம்.

2 கொரிந்தியர் 8:21

3 இந்த ஊழியம் குற்றப்படாதபடிக்கு, நாங்கள் யாதொன்றிலும் இடறல் உண்டாக்காமல், எவ்விதத்தினாலேயும், எங்களைத் தேவஊழியக்காரராக விளங்கப்பண்ணுகிறோம்.

2 கொரிந்தியர் 6

2 உங்களிடத்திலுள்ள தேவனுடைய மந்தையை நீங்கள் மேய்த்து, கட்டாயமாய் அல்ல, மனப்பூர்வமாயும், அவலட்சணமான ஆதாயத்திற்காக அல்ல, உற்சாக மனதோடும்,

1 பேதுரு 5:2

3 சுதந்தரத்தை இறுமாப்பாய் ஆளுகிறவர்களாக அல்ல, மந்தைக்கு மாதிரிகளாகவும், கண்காணிப்புச் செய்யுங்கள்.

1 பேதுரு 5:3

Govt study finds misuse of MPLAD scheme - https://www.hindustantimes.com/delhi/govt-study-finds-misuse-of-mplad-scheme/story-gVChJQzXQE6DcCByt8mS8O.html?utm_source=whatsapp&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=ht_AMP For news on the go, download HT app. Click https://bit.ly/HT_Download

https://www.rediff.com/news/special/how-mps-misuse-thier-mplads-funds/20130729.htm

The MPLAD scheme should be discontinued - Business Line - https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/the-mplad-scheme-should-be-discontinued/article31394877.ece

The MPLADS funds were a tool to appease MPs and keep a coalition government intact, read details https://www.opindia.com/2020/05/mplads-corruption-modi-government-congress-upa-nda-development-coronavirus-funds/

MPLADS encouraged corruption, was poorly monitored. Its diversion to Covid-19 fund a wise move

https://theprint.in/50-word-edit/bjp-has-much-to-be-proud-of-at-40-but-is-it-truly-bharatiya-or-just-hindu-majoritarian/396480/

https://www.ideasforindia.in/topics/governance/electoral-cycles-and-incomplete-public-works-projects-an-analysis-of-the-mplad-scheme-in-india.html

MPLADS, its suspension, and why it must go - The Hindu - https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/mplads-its-suspension-and-why-it-must-go/article31504548.ece

At an Estimated Rs 60,000 Crore, Lok Sabha Elections Costliest Ever; BJP Spent 45% of it, Shows Study-https://www.news18.com/news/politics/with-about-rs-100-cr-spent-in-each-ls-constituency-we-just-witnessed-the-most-expensive-election-ever-2171789.html

With Cash Flow Worth Crores, It’s No Longer an Aam Aadmi’s Election-https://www.news18.com/news/politics/lok-sabha-elections-2019-with-cash-flow-worth-crores-its-no-longer-an-aam-aadmis-election-2024521.html

The lad fails to deliver via @business_today https://www.businesstoday.in/magazine/features/story/mp-and-mla-local-area-development-scheme-under-scanner-19539-2011-02-18?utm_source=btweb_story_share

#politics# politicians#elections# MPLADS #MLALADS #fraud#misuse#bureaucracy #nexus#corruption# MLA#MP# Parliament #assembly #CAG#india

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hardynwa · 2 years ago

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Presidential election results: Islamic group tells politicians to think more of Nigeria

The Muslim Rights Concern, MURIC, has appealed to candidates of political parties to think more of Nigeria as the nation awaits the results of Saturday’s elections. The group’s Director, Prof. Ishaq Akintola, made the call in a statement issued in Lagos on Monday. Akintola appealed to all candidates to avoid inflammatory statements and to demonstrate faith in Nigeria’s electoral system. The statement read, “Nigerians went to the polls on Saturday, Feb. 25, to pick their 16th president, senators and representatives. “As of today, Monday, Feb. 27, the results are still coming in trickles. “But already, there have been pockets of violence in a few places around the country, although this hasn’t been widespread, and they have been contained. “MURIC appeals to all candidates in the 2023 general elections to think more of Nigeria now and in the next few weeks.” MURIC added that neither should any candidate attempt to burn the bridge after crossing it because the lives of over 200 million Nigerians are at stake. Read the full article

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southeastasianists · 4 years ago

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Tensions are rising in Myanmar after military spokesman Major General Zaw Min Tun hinted at the possibility of a coup, should the military’s claims of electoral fraud go unaddressed. Particular attention has been paid to his comment on Tuesday that “The military will abide by existing laws including the Constitution. But that doesn’t mean the military will take responsibility for the state or won’t take responsibility for the state.” This has led the media to focus on the likelihood of a coup, though top military leaders say such a step would be a last resort.

The spokesman’s words have fueled concern among citizens, businesspeople, politicians and diplomats. A Yangon-based diplomat told The Irrawaddy that his embassy is watching and monitoring the situation closely and carefully. “There is great cause for concern,” he said.

A day after Maj-Gen Zaw Min Tun spoke, military chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing said in an address to senior cadets, “The Constitution is the mother law. We have to follow the Constitution. If the law is not respected or followed, we must abolish it. Even if it is the Constitution, we must abolish it. In the time of the Revolutionary Council, the 1947 constitution was abolished.” He seemed to be suggesting that the 2008 Constitution can be abolished. But how?

The Tatmadaw’s recent comments are a departure from military leaders’ repeated assertions in the past that they would safeguard the 2008 Constitution, which was drafted in favor of the country’s former ruling generals.

Who dares abolish the ‘military’s charter’?

Under the 2008 Constitution, the military in Myanmar plays an unusually powerful role in the executive branch of government and in national politics. The army controls three security-related ministries: Defense, Home Affairs and Border Affairs. Moreover, the military’s unelected representatives occupy 25 per cent of the seats in Parliament.

The Constitution states that the president has the executive power to declare a state of emergency, after consulting and coordinating with the military-dominated National Defense and Security Council (NDSC). However, no NDSC meetings have been held since the current government led by the National League for Democracy (NLD) came to power.

Snr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing’s reference to previous constitutions that were abolished has only fueled the speculation. (Myanmar’s 1947 constitution was abolished when General Ne Win staged a coup in 1962; the 1974 charter was scrapped in 1988 when the military staged a bloody coup after crushing a nationwide pro-democracy uprising.)

Meetings between top-ranking government officials have reportedly been held to discuss possible ways of easing the tension, and the NLD has ordered all of its MPs, who are now gathered in the capital preparing to attend the opening of the new Parliament on Feb. 1, to remain calm and not to resist in case of a coup. However, anxiety and foreboding are spreading among NLD MPs, and sightings of armored vehicles on the streets of Yangon have only hightened the concern and tension. Ruling party lawmakers are preparing for the worst-case scenario.

State Counselor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, who leads the party, and several other MPs previously endured years of incarceration in detention centers and prisons or under house arrest.

In any case, the senior general’s comments have only inflamed the coup speculation, with some pundits predicting a takeover in a matter of weeks—if not days. The military chief’s comment that, if the law is not followed “we must abolish [the Constitution]” is ironic given that just last year the military blocked the ruling party’s bid to amend the charter.

Analysts believe the military’s claims of electoral fraud are motivated by the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP)’s heavy defeat in November’s general election. The USDP was founded as a proxy party for the military.

USDP: 2020 poll’s big loser

The USDP won around 10 percent of seats in the Union Parliament in the 2015 general election, but in last year’s poll it secured just 5 percent.

Senior figures in the USDP suffered defeats in the election, losing their races to NLD rivals. This was a serious defeat for the military and its proxy, and the USDP will be a diminished force in the new Parliament.

The USDP was formed in June 2010 to contest that year’s general election. It is an offshoot of the former military junta and the successor to its mass organization, the Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA). Its evolution is similar to that of the Golkar party in Indonesia, whose origins lie in an organization with military links.

The largest and best-funded military-backed party, the USDP was established to play a major role in national politics over the coming decades. Its senior officials and leaders are former military personnel with strong ties to active military generals.

The patron of the USDA was Senior General Than Shwe, who is now retired and following the unfolding political events from his home in Naypyitaw. It is not known how the former regime leader views the current political stalemate, but it is safe to assume he wants to see stability and a compromise. Neither of those could be achieved through a coup or by abolishing the 2008 Constitution he designed and whose drafting he guided.

After its election drubbing in November, the USDP refused to recognize the results of the general election and called for a re-run of the voting as soon as possible, with the military’s cooperation, “in order to have an election that is free, fair, unbiased and free from unfair campaigning”.

The Union Election Commission (UEC)—whose impartiality and fairness military leaders called into question—rebuffed the calls for a new election.

“It’s their allegation that the election was unfair. It’s from a small group of people. A true democracy values the majority’s wish,” said UEC official U Myint Naing.

In December, the military came to the USDP’s rescue, saying the armed forces were scrutinizing and reviewing voting in 218 townships where military personnel and their relatives cast ballots on Nov. 8.

The UEC instructed its sub-commissions not to hand out electoral documentation without its permission a day after the military called for documents to be provided to support its probe into claims of fraud.

Mid-ranking military officers in Naypyitaw say the ball is in the UEC’s court and that it must now come out and refute the allegation. They say that Snr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing doesn’t want to be pushed into a corner, where he will have no choice but to stage a coup.

Political analysts in Yangon suspect the military leaders would like to see the UEC dissolved, but this is impossible.

NLD–dominated Parliament

Myanmar’s newly elected Parliament, the second assembly dominated by the NLD, is due to convene on Feb. 1. The USDP and the military don’t want to proceed with this parliamentary session and have reportedly demanded that the government postpone it.

In its second straight landslide election victory on Nov. 8, the ruling NLD won 396 out of 476 elected seats (83 percent) in the two houses of Parliament, allowing it to form the next government. The USDP won only 33 seats (around 7 percent). The military representatives will have their usual quota of 25 per cent of seats, meaning a combined 166 military personnel will sit in the two houses of Parliament. In December, the military released the new list of names of its appointed lawmakers who will attend the upcoming Parliament session.

In the new Parliament, the USDP—a once powerful, ruling party—will no longer be a tiger but a kitten. This is a real concern for the military and the USDP.

#Southeast Asia #Burma #Myanmar #Tatmadaw #Politics #Democracy

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orbemnews · 4 years ago

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The Week in Business: Jobs Are Coming Back Good morning. Here’s your quick rundown of the business and tech news to know for the week ahead. — Charlotte Cowles What’s Up? (Feb. 28-March 6) Compromises, Compromises The Biden administration’s giant stimulus package lumbered its way through the Senate last week, but not without major concessions. The $15-an-hour minimum wage provision was dropped from the bill after a nonpartisan Senate official ruled that it violated the budgetary rules. Lawmakers also abandoned their effort to increase the federal unemployment payment to $400 a week from $300, but they still plan to extend it through Sept. 6. And finally, they tightened the income qualifications for stimulus checks. Under the current bill, $1,400 checks would be sent to individuals earning up to $75,000, single parents earning $112,500 and couples making $150,000. Those with higher incomes would receive less, and individuals who earned more than $80,000 and households with incomes over $160,000 wouldn’t receive anything. Mr. Biden’s original proposal set the caps at $100,000 for individuals, $150,000 for single parents and $200,000 for couples. Political Ads Return Facebook banned political ads indefinitely back in November, when fighting misinformation (about voting and election fraud, particularly) was like playing Whac-A-Mole. But the time has come, the platform said, for it to allow ads about “social issues, elections or politics” to resume. To keep things from getting out of hand again, Facebook announced that political advertisers must complete a series of identity checks before they can place their content, which will also be labeled with a disclaimer stating that it has been “paid for by” a political organization. Bring Back the Whisky The United States has suspended a 25 percent tariff on wine, cheese and other products as well as a separate tariff on British goods, which were both put in place by the Trump administration in 2019. The tariffs were meant to be payback in a decades-long dispute over airline subsidies. But they also deprived Americans of good liquor and snacks. Scotch whisky exports to the United States have since dropped 35 percent, for example, according to the industry’s trade group. The Biden administration will lift the tariffs for four months while it tries to work out a long-term solution to the trade disagreements. What’s Next? (March 7-13) Open Season On Wednesday, Texas will allow all businesses to open at 100 percent capacity. The state has also lifted its mask mandate and all other pandemic restrictions, despite strong warnings from health officials and President Biden, who called the rollback “Neanderthal thinking.” Other states have also eased restrictions on businesses as coronavirus case numbers continue to fall, and the latest unemployment numbers show that jobs are coming back even more quickly than expected, especially in the hospitality industry — good news, over all. But with new variants of the virus floating around and less than 20 percent of the U.S. population partly vaccinated, scientists are worried that overly aggressive reopenings could backfire. Google’s Cookie Cut Google has announced a major shake-up in its advertising model. For years, it has used cookies — small crumbs of digital information that companies, advertisers and websites gather to track people’s online habits — to target you with ads (its primary source of revenue). But lots of people find this creepy. And some web browsers, like Safari and Firefox, have restricted the use of cookies out of concern for users’ privacy. Now Google is jumping on the bandwagon, too, and announced plans to phase out cookie use over the next year. That doesn’t mean you’ll suddenly get the same ads as everyone else, though. Instead of cookies, Google is testing a new technology that follows groups of people across the web, rather than individuals, and feeds them ads based on their collective behavior. Gas Pumps, So 2020 Since General Motors vowed in January to sell only zero-emission vehicles by 2035, other automakers, like Ford Motor, have made similar promises. And last week, Volvo one-upped them all, pledging to go all electric by 2030. The industry’s shift away from fossil fuels has accelerated rapidly since President Biden took office and vowed to fight climate change. It’s also following demand: China, the world’s biggest car market, recently ordered that the majority of new cars be powered by electricity by 2035, and electric cars were the fastest-growing segment of the European market last year. What Else? Square, the digital payments company led by Twitter’s top executive, Jack Dorsey, will buy a majority stake in Tidal, the music-streaming service owned by Jay-Z and other artists including his wife, Beyoncé, and Rihanna. The pandemic-friendly delivery business Instacart has raised $265 million and more than doubled its valuation. And in case you wanted to change up your comfort eating, Hershey has introduced an all-peanut-butter Reese’s cup that does away with its chocolate exterior. Source link Orbem News #Business #Coming #jobs #Week

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theliberaltony · 5 years ago

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via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

Welcome to your first FiveThirtyEight Election Update of the 2020 primary cycle! This is a column in which we’ll talk about the primary race through the lens of our forecast model, which we released earlier this week. Sometimes it will be rather brief, and quickly run through the latest data — while other times, we’ll go into a deep-dive on upcoming states or some aspect of how the model works.

We don’t necessarily plan to publish an Election Update as a result of each single new poll, but Friday’s Selzer & Co. poll of the Iowa caucus, published by the Des Moines Register and CNN, warrants an exception and did have a somewhat material effect on the model.

Why is it worth focusing on this one individual poll — something that we’d usually advise against?

Selzer & Co. is a very good pollster, one of the best in the business.

There haven’t been a lot of polls of Iowa recently.

Iowa is pretty darn important, at least in terms of how our model thinks about the race, with the potential to produce fairly large bounces that will affect the rest of the calendar.

The poll showed Bernie Sanders ahead with 20 percent of the vote, followed by Elizabeth Warren at 17 percent, Pete Buttigieg at 16 percent and Joe Biden at 15 percent. This is a reasonably big shift from the previous Selzer & Co. poll, in November, which had shown Buttigieg ahead with 25 percent of the vote. (Although, for reasons I’ll get to in a moment, the model views the latest poll as more neutral than negative for Buttigieg.) Amy Klobuchar was next in the poll at 6 percent, but that was unchanged from November despite a couple of debate performances since November that voters rated strongly in our polling with Ipsos. Andrew Yang was sixth at 5 percent.

So then, how did the new poll affect our model? Here’s what our current national numbers look like:

Biden remains the most likely candidate to get a delegate majority, with a 38 percent chance, followed by Sanders at 24 percent, Warren at 13 percent, and Buttigieg at 10 percent. There’s also a 14 percent chance that no one wins a majority, which could potentially lead to a contested convention.

But those numbers do represent an improvement for Sanders and Warren and a decline for Biden. Here’s a before-and-after comparison:

How a new Iowa poll affected our numbers

Candidates’ before-and-after chances of winning a majority of pledged delegates following the Selzer & Co. Iowa Poll on Jan. 10, according to FiveThirtyEight’s primary forecast

Candidate Last model run before Selzer & Co. poll Current forecast Biden 41% 38% Sanders 22 24 Warren 11 13 Buttigieg 10 10 No majority 14 14

Current forecast as of Jan. 11 at 12 p.m. ET

Biden’s majority chances fell by 3 percentage points, from 41 percent to 38 percent, while Sanders’s and Warren’s each gained 2 percentage points. Buttigieg’s chances were unchanged.

I really like having a model at times like this because it allows for a fairly rigorous and objective answer to the question of: How much should I update my priors as a result of this new piece of information? If you’re just winging it, it’s super easy to screw that up in either direction, either dismissing new data as being “an outlier,” etc. — or claiming that the new data has massively inverted the trajectory of the race when it probably hasn’t. (The latter is usually the more common mistake in media coverage of the campaigns since it makes for more dramatic headlines.)

In FiveThirtyEight model terms, swings of this magnitude — Biden falling from 41 percent to 38 percent — are a relatively big deal. They will likely be on the high end of the shifts you see as a result of a single state poll, with the possible exception of final polls conducted on the eve of a primary or caucus. (Let me back up and caveat that: I think that this will be on the high end of poll-induced swings based on what we’ve seen in our past general-election models, but since the primary model is a new product for us, I’m not quite sure.)

At the same time, if this poll has completely upended your view of the race, then — I’m trying to put this constructively — you need to go back and add a little more rigor to your mental model of the primaries. Iowa still has four highly plausible winners; that was true both before and after the poll. Our model has Sanders (with a 29 percent chance) and Biden (also with a 29 percent chance) as being a bit more likely than the others to win, but it’s not really much of an edge (we have Buttigieg’s chances at 22 percent, and Warren’s at 16 percent). Perhaps the candidate who had the most reason to be disappointed by the new poll was Klobuchar. Making a very late surge to win Iowa is not completely out of the question — Rick Santorum did it in 2012 — but we have her chances down to 2 percent.

Biden remains the most likely overall winner of the delegate race, meanwhile, with Sanders in the next-best position. That’s because Biden, leading in national polls, would be awfully hard to catch if he won Iowa. For the other three candidates, there would be the question of whether the Iowa bounce would be enough to propel them past Biden, with Sanders being in the best position to do so because he’s second in national polls and because his polling is also relatively strong in both New Hampshire and Nevada.

It’s also worth keeping in mind that we do have some other recent information about Iowa apart from this poll. A YouGov poll of Iowa released last weekend showed a three-way tie between Biden, Sanders and Buttigieg. And our model also makes inferences about candidates’ standing in Iowa based on trends in national polls. That’s the reason the model didn’t have Buttigieg’s chances falling as a result of this poll; it had already anticipated that his numbers would decline as a result of his slump in national polls. Conversely, even though the numbers didn’t seem that terrific for Warren on the surface — her 17 percent in the new Selzer & Co. poll is only a 1-point improvement from her 16 percent in November — it comes during a period when she’d been declining in national polls. So it’s a bullish sign for her campaign that she’s still one of the front-runners in Iowa.

By the way, “one of the front-runners” is about as precise as it’s possible to realistically be in Iowa. Our forecast will get a bit more accurate as more polls come in and as the Feb. 3 caucuses approach,. but the model assumes that caucuses are awfully hard to poll, which means there are high margins of error.

That’s especially so in Iowa given some of the quirks of the caucus process, the most important of which is that in each precinct, voters for candidates who don’t have at least 15 percent of the vote must “realign” themselves to candidates who do. Iowa will also release three different ways of counting its vote. More about that stuff in future Election Updates. And although I’m not going to get into it today, some of the data from the poll that the model doesn’t use — like favorability ratings and second-choice preferences and how many voters have firmly decided on a candidate (not many, although Sanders supporters are something of an exception) — should contribute to the sense that the race is open-ended.

All of that is a long-winded way of saying there’s a lot of ambiguity about what will happen in Iowa. Through that fog, our model picked up some good news for Sanders and Warren and some bad news for Biden in this poll. But the fog is pretty dense.

#IFTTT #Politics – FiveThirtyEight #politics #538 #Nate Silver

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