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southeastasianists · 4 years ago

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According to the World Health Organisation, the first case of COVID-19 was confirmed in the Philippines on 20 January 2020. More than a year after, there are now more than 600,000 confirmed cases, nearly 13,000 deaths and a surge of 5000 new cases in one day. Approximately 41 percent of the total number of confirmed cases are from the National Capital Region (NCR), where Manila is located. The death toll from Duterte’s Drug War since July 2016 ranges from a conservative estimate of 8,663 people according to the UN Human Rights Council, to possibly thrice as high based on statements from the Philippine Commission on Human Rights. The official record from the Philippine Drug Enforcement Agency (PDEA), the agency implementing Duterte’s Drug War, is at 6,011 deaths from July 2016 to December 2020.

Alarmingly, the national pandemic response is even being harnessed in the service of the Drug War with extrajudicial killings registering a 50 percent increase between April and July 2020. Both COVID-19 related deaths and extrajudicial killings linked with the War on Drugs have been popularly represented by the Duterte government as disconnected from, or outside of, all the range and repertoires of repression at the state’s disposal.

Yet prior to the pandemic, Filipinos were already primed for and inoculated to mass loss of life and human rights violations, precisely because of the militarism that has been the logic of security under Duterte’s rule. We can understand everyday life in the Philippines as part of an ongoing continuum of violence, from the first day that Duterte launched his war on drugs, to the present militarised response to the health crisis. The Philippines was already suffering a ‘murderous plague’ which made death paradoxically both an abstract and visceral reality for many Filipinos, even before the disease outbreak.

It matters, therefore, that we constantly articulate how tragedy and mass loss of life are routine and logical outcomes under Duterte and why this government must be made accountable for the murderous plague it has authored. Filipinos must maintain their demands for better leadership, crisis response and management despite the persistent gaslighting by the President, his spokespersons, and enabling members of his regime. The forthcoming May 2022 national elections have prompted discussions on the importance of leadership among specific sectors mobilised by the question, ‘pangulo’ or ‘pang-gulo’ (‘president’ or ‘nuisance’)? At the highest level of power, does the Philippines have someone who leads, or someone who self-servingly obstructs recovery and fuels division?

Drug war and the limits of militarised security

Duterte’s default approach has been to wield the military and police at every crisis. However, this approach generates its own crises because the truncated lens of militarism comes up inadequate in addressing the multidimensional root causes and consequences to much of the global security challenges we are facing today. Based on the best available science, and what COVID-19 is demonstrating globally, state leaders must be able to address a drastically changed security landscape where the heightened intensity and frequency of extreme events will threaten all areas of human life and ecosystems. What has been undeniable is that leaders disastrously fall short of managing crises—whether in the context of armed conflicts, disasters and climate change, or health pandemics—when they do not incorporate a range of perspectives and expertise.

Duterte’s military and police-driven approach to every national decision-making process is exclusionary. He has sought to frame Filipinos, especially frontline health workers who express their discontent, as ‘enemies’ who do nothing but complain. Because he reproduces and invests in militarising crises, he cannot but interpret differing views as an existential threat to his power. The Philippines therefore has a leader that forecloses spaces for civic deliberation and participation at a time when these are most needed.

The drug war has gradually created the institutional and rhetorical foundations that enable other forms of violence: the use of Anti-Terrorism Act of 2020 and ‘red-tagging’ to silence opposition; the compounded suffering of internally displaced communities as resources are diverted away from the forgotten crises in Marawi and Tacloban; and ongoing violence and development aggression against Indigenous peoples and environmental activists. Duterte’s war on drugs has been argued to satisfice the stages of genocide.

Death and disinformation due to ‘infodemic’

The pandemic is also mediated by a pervasive climate of disinformation in the Philippines. The deadly combination of militarism and disinformation has been effective in fragmenting and eliminating political opposition, and in state repression more generally. Over the past years, Philippine democracy has been constantly threatened and undermined by the rapid and increased production and dissemination of misinformation and disinformation. A study has shown how insidious, partisan and curated content is produced and circulated by “architects of networked disinformation”, including influencers, online celebrities, politicians in-house team’s, and marketing companies. These players have weaponized the internet to support and bolster the operations of Duterte’s administration in designing and implementing a political and militarist agenda.

An evident outcome of weaponizing social media platforms is the silencing of dissent. Paid trolls, bot armies and a range of fake news websites run by supporters of Duterte have targeted and harassed individuals and institutions. For instance, in 2018, Maria Ressa, the chief executive of Rappler, was the target of state-sponsored “patriotic trolling”, misogynistic comments and hate speech. Meanwhile, the Philippine government attempted to revoke Rappler’s license in 2018. Notably in 2020, Philippine lawmakers rejected the franchise renewal for ABS-CBN, a Philippine’s broadcasting company also critical of Duterte’s governance.

Misinformation and disinformation also impact the lives of ordinary Filipinos in national and transnational contexts. A report shows that Filipinos spend an average of 4 hours and 15 minutes each day on different social media channels. These online platforms have also been used to sustain ties among overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) and their families. For the ten million Filipinos spread across the world, social media and mobile applications have become valuable tools to remain connected to home. However, these channels serve as key sites for producing and disseminating fake information. For example, a study on the 2019 Philippine election shows how OFWs are targeted by online communities that disseminate falsehoods and manipulative content.

More recently, an ‘infodemic’ has emerged in tandem with the COVID-19 pandemic. The spread of hoaxes and conspiracy theories about COVID-19 and attacks on the credibility of the World Health Organization (WHO) re-victimises all those who have died in the pandemic and the families they have left behind. In a digital environment muddled by falsehoods and inaccuracies, people are afforded narratives that only validate their own pre-existing beliefs and affirm experiences that reflect their immediate or narrow environment. This makes it all the more possible for those in positions of power and privilege to detach (and stay out of touch) from the harsh realities millions of Filipinos are facing.

The use of digital technologies at a time of crisis can stir heightened ambivalence among Filipinos. On the one hand, greater online connectivity affords the maintenance of intimate ties transnationally. However, it is the same connectivity that can potentially be used to distort understanding of social welfare, human rights, and personal and familial futures through the lens of fear. Akin to the pandemic, widespread disinformation is slowly but effectively killing mutual trust and civic participation in Philippine society. It does this by eroding Filipinos’ access to reliable information and their right to thrive in democratic spaces. Crucially, disinformation hinders Filipinos from seeing the structural inequalities, marginalisation and exploitation that implicates us all. There is neither one person nor a “silver bullet” that can magically vanquish—in six months—what has been built over decades by political and economic systems in the Philippines. It will take care, collective action and mutual responsibility.

Stop the killings; stop the strongman

Crises can provide windows of opportunity to overhaul ossified harms done by this government, and repair what good is left. Deaths and killings may be mundane now but they do not have to be acceptable: not now and not in the future. There is a need to develop antidotes that can reclaim, secure and protect democracy. As the COVID-19 pandemic intersects with Duterte’s murderous plague, Filipinos are faced with clear lessons that can be brought to bear in the next election.

First, there is no path to “rapid” recovery and it takes inclusive governance and leadership to realise long-lasting and “crisis-proof” reconstruction. Moving forward, Filipinos might be more sceptical and suspicious of leaders promising to do everything without demanding shared responsibilities and recognising diverse expertise from the Filipino public. Globally, we are also seeing youth-led protests both from afar such as in the US, and closer in neighbouring Thailand and Myanmar, against police and military violence as well as outdated styles and systems of militarised authority. While their rule may seem inescapable at present, young people are taking the lead in sending a clear message: the myth of the ‘strongman’ is no more.

Second, the killings were indirectly enabled by the political fragmentation and societal division accelerated by digital technologies. What proved most effective in stifling collective action was the framing of political engagements in terms of “camp” politics and loyalties—us versus them / DDS versus Dilawan—instead of under a unifying identity of “the Filipino people.” Duterte’s success in fulfilling an initial populist desire for a ‘strongman leader’ is an outcome of previous failures in crisis response under the Aquino government. Rather than see Duterte and Aquino as oppositional, we need to see the violent continuity between the two different models of leadership.

Third, the rise and resilience of Duterte’s strongman rule is connected with his leveraging of underlying sexism, misogyny, class and regional prejudices in Philippine society. Clearly, Duterte’s misogyny is no laughing matter. Rape jokes are neither humorous nor harmless. His speeches form part of, and feed, societal violence. Finally, the path to stopping the killings will be long and difficult, but necessary. The governance challenges ahead will be more complex and difficult. An indispensable step in this direction is recognising and healing from collective grief on a transnational scale. Then the task of refocusing energies toward building new leaders and political agendas can begin.

#Southeast Asia #Philippines #Covid-19 #Politics #Rodrigo Duterte

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lokiondisneyplus · 4 years ago

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Prior to the pandemic, Frank Patterson would spend most days at the sprawling production facility, formerly known as Pinewood Atlanta Studios, that he runs outside of Atlanta. Then COVID-19 hit, and not even he was able to make his health and safety team's cut of essential on-site personnel.

"They were like, 'Frank, why are you here? You're setting a bad example,' " says the president and CEO of what is now Trilith Studios, the in-demand filming location known for hosting a suite of Marvel projects, including WandaVision and Avengers: Endgame.

Since Patterson took the reins in 2016, he's transformed the place from a set of soundstages to a full-fledged film community. After divesting from the Pinewood Group, Patterson led investments in new technologies and content companies, as well as expanded Trilith's footprint. The result is a 935-acre master development that includes the studio as well as a European-inspired town including homes, restaurants and schools that serve as a live-work community for the many creatives on the lot.

In a wide-ranging conversation, Patterson, 59, opened up about the most challenging aspect of COVID-era production, the studio's biggest concerns and whether he'll mandate vaccines.

You've had multiple projects in production during COVID-19. How has it been going?

We've been very fortunate. We had the first studio feature in the industry back to work in June. I can't say what it is, but they'll be finished soon. It was an intense amount of research and work to put together protocols, recognizing that the disaster version looks like an outbreak. None of that's happened. We've had enormously low numbers of positive tests. And we have a full lot: 3,200 people drove on today.

How much more expensive is it to make a film or show right now?

It's costing about 20 percent more money and 20 percent more time. Things are slower and clunkier and it's taking more space. But the good news is cast and crew are taking safety very seriously. I'm sure you heard the story of Tom Cruise getting upset at the crew for not following protocols [on Mission: Impossible 7]. I don't think that's common. What we have found is with the exception of the day player — they tend to test positive more than the average crewmember — people are taking care of themselves.

A year in, how do you feel you did with the COVID-19 protocols?

They're pretty routine now. We're not just making stuff up like we were in the very beginning.

Which of those do you expect to remain post-pandemic?

The washing hands and standing apart, that's how we keep from spreading these diseases and how we need to work. There's a heightened awareness for cleanliness. People used to drag themselves to work miserably sick because if you missed work, you were letting your team down. Well, that's changed. If you show up and you're sick, they're like, "Get out of here." That'll go forward.

Fellow Georgian Tyler Perry said when he was shooting his shows last summer, there was an elderly actress who didn’t feel comfortable coming on set given the risk, so they had to write her out of the scripts. Have you heard of anything like that happening on any of your productions?

Not leaving a show, but changing of schedules to accommodate people's tolerance for coming back to work. There's an, "OK, let's not shoot this right now because this actor is not quite ready to come back to work." They're pivoting and shooting other stuff first and coming back. That's happening across all the productions.

What are the biggest concerns that you hear from the studios now?

Everyone's overwhelmed with the need to get stuff made, but we aren't returning to the speed that we had and we're spending more dollars per frame captured in just the pure production. And it's not like people don't care because you always care when you're spending more money than you planned, but it’s a way a distant second to: Are we getting this stuff shot?

Are all the studios behind?

Nobody is meeting their goals. Just look at the Disney+ line-up, all the stuff that they want to put in place. Look at what Paramount is doing now with Paramount Plus. If you just look at these pipelines, this is the anxiety that everyone feels right now. And then, by the way, WandaVision's a hit, so you got to feed that beast, right? That’s the tension that you feel every day.

How much of that is not having enough physical space to film? Several production facilities, including yours, are fully booked.

It's not just about space. Yes, of course, we could use some more facilities, and we're putting in five more stages that will be ready by June. But that's only one small part. Even before COVID hit, there weren't enough people — I'm talking about crew, not to mention the storytellers — to meet the demand that Wall Street was pouring into the pipeline. There's a talent drain. With COVID, it's [only gotten worse].

Georgia opened sooner than other states. Did you field a lot of calls?

It was overwhelming. Guys were like, "Hey, we heard you guys figured it out." First of all, we didn't figure it out. We have a version and it's working. But there was a lot of attention on us. And we had the good fortune of not having to worry about what role our government leaders would play because they basically said, "We're going to let the industry figure it out." That's the good news. The bad news: It was on us to figure it out and take responsibility.

Are you getting involved in the vaccine rollout as you did testing?

No, we decided we would just keep our focus on the testing protocols. We have to make certain that we just take it all the way to the end — and we'll let [union, guild and association] leadership decide when that is and when those protocols can change. And then again, as an industry, we're going to have to decide what we want to carry forward and what we don't. That's the next phase, and the rate at which we're vaccinating may advance those conversations faster than I thought. I used to think [the protocols] were going to go into 2022. I don't know if that's the case anymore.

Have you had conversations about mandating the vaccine on sets?

We haven't. We know that when it comes to mandatory protocols, we'll have to work in collaboration with industry leadership. No one goes on our lot without a mask, for example. And that was a political thing. Fortunately, Governor Kemp said, "How can I help?" And we were like, "What would be helpful is if you wear a mask in public," and he said, "OK." So when a crewmember said, "It's my right [not to wear one]" or whatever, of course we can say, "This is private property, sorry," but what our security team said instead was, "Hey, listen, the governor's wearing a mask, and you should wear a mask to protect our industry." It was us taking a stand, but the stand was really only taken because the unions and guilds and associations agreed. We'll have to do the same thing with the vaccination.

You're building out a neighboring town for people to live. Is this the future of production facilities?

I don't think so. In some ways, what we're doing is what Mr. Disney did. The mill town is not a new concept. But if we didn't have a state with a reputation for being so business friendly, for having the tax incentives, for having the most traveled airport in the world, if those things didn't exist right there, believe me, we couldn't do this. I grew up in Hill Country outside of San Antonio, Texas. You cannot do this in San Antonio, Texas.

How many people are buying houses and apartments on the Trilith property?

We have 400 of the apartments built, 260 of them occupied. We’re at almost 300 homes now sold and 500 people in the town. We're working on our next set of 150 homes right now and starting our third micro village. The second micro village filled up like that (snaps fingers). We have 36 people on the waiting list. What’s happening — and this is a global trend — is that COVID has heightened our awareness of the benefits of this approach to working. The distributed workforce and the way for us to collaborate with these electronic tools is causing a lot of people to realize that they don't have to live in the town they thought they have to live in. So I think people thought it was going to be more like a second home, but they're actually staying here.

Every few years it seems there’s some controversial legislation in Georgia that pops up and Hollywood threatens a boycott, whether it’s an anti-LGBT or anti-abortion bill. Do you just assume it's going to pass?

These kinds of ebbs and flows of social discourse and its impact on the industry will never go away. Georgia is not immune to it. The film industry has been this wonderful beacon of possibility, and I do worry, given what's going on in our culture right now, that we as an industry could get caught sideways in this in some way that really dampens our ability to continue to have diverse views on the world.

Georgia's film incentives program has been criticized by some as an irresponsible use of taxpayer money. Do you see it being phased out or pared in the future?

This state is very proud of the fact that seven years in a row now it’s the number one state in the United States to do business. They saw the film industry as a way to really diversify its economy, to bring the creative class into the state. So they wrote this policy that was supported left and right, and that still is the case. I'm not a politician, but I'm on all of these committees, and what I noticed is they were so careful and specific about making it make business sense. It would be very difficult for anyone to turn it around now because it's just good, smart money — and you have both Democrats and Republicans looking at it. But in every session in every state always in the U.S., you will have people come up and write up some kind of legislation, "Let's get rid of tax incentives." It's just not going to happen. I would be really surprised.

But there were some changes to it recently, yes?

There were parts that we needed to improve on around auditing and how we manage the information and our relationship with all the productions. We needed to clean up some of the back of house stuff, so Representative Matt Dollar passed some amendments last session that are now going into effect that really helped clean up the whole process.

Interview edited for length and clarity.

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trylonandperisphere · 5 years ago

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OPINION

YOUNG AND UNAFRAID OF THE CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC? GOOD FOR YOU. NOW STOP KILLING PEOPLE

A DOCTOR IN WESTERN EUROPE

ON 3/11/20 AT 2:29 PM EDT

The World Health Organization Declares The New Coronavirus Outbreak A Pandemic

I'm a doctor in a major hospital in Western Europe. Watching you Americans (and you, Brits) in these still-early days of the coronavirus pandemic is like watching a familiar horror movie, where the protagonists, yet again, split into pairs or decide to take a tour of a dark basement.

The real-life versions of this behavior are pretending this is just a flu; keeping schools open; following through with your holiday travel plans, and going into the office daily. This is what we did in Italy. We were so complacent that even when people with coronavirus symptoms started turning up, we wrote each off as a nasty case of the flu. We kept the economy going, pointed fingers at China and urged tourists to keep traveling. And the majority of us told ourselves and each other: this isn't so bad. We're young, we're fit, we'll be fine even if we catch it.

Fast-forward two months, and we are drowning. Statistically speaking—judging by the curve in China—we are not even at the peak yet, but our fatality rate is at over 6 percent, double the known global average.

Put aside statistics. Here is how it looks in practice. Most of my childhood friends are now doctors working in north Italy. In Milan, in Bergamo, in Padua, they are having to choose between intubating a 40-year-old with two kids, a 40-year old who is fit and healthy with no co-morbidities, and a 60-year-old with high blood pressure, because they don't have enough beds. In the hallway, meanwhile, there are another 15 people waiting who are already hardly breathing and need oxygen.

The army is trying to bring some of them to other regions with helicopters but it's not enough: the flow is just too much, too many people are getting sick at the same time.

We are still awaiting the peak of the epidemic in Europe: probably early April for Italy, mid-April for Germany and Switzerland, somewhere around that time for the UK. In the U.S., the infection has only just begun.

But until we're past the peak, the only solution is to impose social restrictions.

And if your government is hesitating, these restrictions are up to you. Stay put. Do not travel. Cancel that family reunion, the promotion party and the big night out. This really sucks, but these are special times. Don't take risks. Do not go to places where you are more than 20 people in the same room. It's not safe and it's not worth it.

But why the urgency, if most people survive?

Here's why: Fatality is the wrong yardstick. Catching the virus can mess up your life in many, many more ways than just straight-up killing you. "We are all young"—okay. "Even if we get the bug, we will survive"—fantastic. How about needing four months of physical therapy before you even feel human again. Or getting scar tissue in your lungs and having your activity level restricted for the rest of your life. Not to mention having every chance of catching another bug in hospital, while you're being treated or waiting to get checked with an immune system distracted even by the false alarm of an ordinary flu. No travel for leisure or business is worth this risk.

Now, odds are, you might catch coronavirus and might not even get symptoms. Great. Good for you. Very bad for everyone else, from your own grandparents to the random older person who got on the subway train a stop or two after you got off. You're fine, you're barely even sneezing or coughing, but you're walking around and you kill a couple of old ladies without even knowing it. Is that fair? You tell me.

My personal as well as professional view: we all have a duty to stay put, except for very special reasons, like, you go to work because you work in healthcare, or you have to save a life and bring someone to hospital, or go out to shop for food so you can survive. But when we get to this stage of a pandemic, it's really important not to spread the bug. The only thing that helps is social restriction. Ideally, the government should issue that instruction and provide a financial fallback—compensate business owners, ease the financial load on everyone as much as possible and reduce the incentive of risking your life or the lives of others just to make ends meet. But if your government or company is slow on the uptake, don't be that person. Take responsibility. For all but essential movement, restrict yourself.

This is epidemiology 101. It really sucks. It is extreme—but luckily, we don't have pandemics of this violence every year. So sit it out. Stay put. Don't travel. It is absolutely not worth it.

It's the civic and moral duty of every person, everywhere, to take part in the global effort to reduce this threat to humanity. To postpone any movement or travel that are not vitally essential, and to spread the disease as little as possible. Have your fun in June, July and August when this—hopefully—is over. Stay safe. Good luck.

The author is a senior doctor in a major European hospital. She asked to remain anonymous because she has not been authorized to speak to the press.

As told to Dimi Reider.

The views expressed in this article are the author's own.

World Health Organization advice for avoiding spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19)

Hygiene advice

Clean hands frequently with soap and water, or alcohol-based hand rub.

Wash hands after coughing or sneezing; when caring for the sick; before; during and after food preparation; before eating; after using the toilet; when hands are visibly dirty; and after handling animals or waste.

Maintain at least 1 meter (3 feet) distance from anyone who is coughing or sneezing.

Avoid touching your hands, nose and mouth. Do not spit in public.

Cover your mouth and nose with a tissue or bent elbow when coughing or sneezing. Discard the tissue immediately and clean your hands.

Medical advice

If you feel unwell (fever, cough, difficulty breathing) seek medical care early and call local health authorities in advance.

Stay up to date on COVID-19 developments issued by health authorities and follow their guidance.

Mask usage

Healthy individuals only need to wear a mask if taking care of a sick person.

Wear a mask if you are coughing or sneezing.

Masks are effective when used in combination with frequent hand cleaning.

Do not touch the mask while wearing it. Clean hands if you touch the mask.

Learn how to properly put on, remove and dispose of masks. Clean hands after disposing of mask.

Do not reuse single-use masks.

#covid-19 #corona virus #coronavirus #health #u.s. healthcare #medicine #safety #newsweek

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theliberaltony · 5 years ago

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via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

Graphics by Yutong Yuan

All across the country, the gears of the economy are grinding slowly and creakily into motion. Retail stores are newly open for in-person shopping in California. It’s possible to get a much-needed haircut in Alabama. And in Alaska, bartenders are even slinging drinks again — albeit with strict capacity and spacing limits.

The reopening of the economy might seem like a promising sign. After all, as shuttered stores and restaurants reopen, workers can return to their jobs or look for new positions, and industries that have seen slowdowns can resume operations. Some politicians — including President Trump — have promised a fast recovery.

But how quickly will the economy really be able to bounce back? How long will we be stuck with a double-digit unemployment rate and a host of other historically bad economic indicators?

We wanted to get a sense of what the experts were thinking. So we partnered with the Initiative on Global Markets, a research center at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, to survey a group of quantitative macroeconomic researchers who work in academic settings about the trajectory of the economic crisis. In consultation with Jonathan Wright of Johns Hopkins University and Allan Timmermann of the University of California, San Diego, two experts on macroeconomic forecasting, we asked the panel questions like what the shape of the recovery will resemble, when gross domestic product will return to its pre-crisis levels, and what the unemployment rate will be at the end of the year. The survey was conducted May 22 to 25.

Overall, the researchers predicted that although the economy will probably start to improve in the second half of this year, there won’t be a quick rally from this recession. “The panelists believe, on the whole, that the recovery from this crisis is going to be a very, very lengthy process,” Timmermann said. “We’re going to be seeing serious effects for years and years.”

Our sample of economists thought it was more likely than not — with an average probability of 54 percent — that the next quarter to see positive real GDP growth in the U.S. (relative to the previous quarter) would be the third quarter of 2020. But that’s probably a low bar to clear; the economy shrunk by 4.8 percent in the first quarter and is likely to contract even more in the second quarter. And there’s a significant chance that the contractions could continue further into the future: The forecasters we polled thought there was a 23 percent chance that the economy would not grow again until the fourth quarter of 2020 and a 22 percent chance that it wouldn’t grow until the first quarter of 2021 or later.

“The economy almost has to grow [in the third quarter] because we’ll be starting from such a low base,” Wright said. “Unless, of course, things seem to be looking good right now and then in July or August there’s another wave and we go straight back to lockdown. Then you could have another negative quarter.”

Another way to think about the recovery process is by considering the shape of the recession. We presented the economists with four specific options of how the trajectory of GDP might look as charted over 2020 and beyond: V-shaped, with a sharp fall and a sharp rebound; U-shaped, with a long period between the beginning of the recession and the recovery; W-shaped, with a sharp recovery followed by another sharp fall and recovery; or “Swoosh”-shaped, with a sharp decline followed by a very slow recovery (picture the Nike logo). More than half of respondents — 58 percent — thought the long, slow recovery of a “Swoosh” shape was most likely, with 19 percent predicting a U-shape and 13 percent calling for a W-shape with multiple declines and recoveries. Tellingly, only 1 out of 31 economists forecasted a V-shape, which would see a quick recovery after the sharp decline of the past few months.1

That pessimistic outlook also came through in our panel’s predictions for when the economy might return to the way it was before the pandemic. The researchers predicted, on average, only an 11 percent chance that real GDP will have caught up to its pre-crisis (fourth quarter of 2019) level by the first half of 2021 and only a 17 percent chance that it will have caught up to its pre-crisis level by the end of 2021. On average, they thought there was roughly a 40 percent probability that GDP would return to its pre-crisis levels sometime in 2022. But they assigned a 32 percent chance to the possibility that GDP wouldn’t return to its pre-crisis level until 2023 or later. Wright pointed out, too, that matching the pre-crisis GDP still isn’t a full recovery, since the economy would have continued to grow if the recession hadn’t happened.

There was a similarly bleak prediction for the unemployment rate. The forecasters’ median estimate for the unemployment rate in May’s jobs report, which will come out on June 5, was 20 percent. By the end of the year, they think the unemployment rate will still be very high by historical standards — the median estimate for the unemployment rate in the December jobs report, which will come out in January 2021, was 12 percent.

In general, the consensus of the forecasters was that there is only an 18 percent chance that the unemployment rate will fall below 10 percent this year, and a 36 percent chance that it won’t fall below 10 percent until after the second quarter of 2021 — over a year from now.

To give you an idea of how terrible a double-digit unemployment rate potentially sustained over 21 months would be, the unemployment rate had been at or above 10 percent for only 11 months total from 1948 through 2019.

But forecasting our economic future is a challenging business even when we’re not in the middle of a global pandemic. And as our respondents filled out their questionnaires, they were weighing a lot of unknowns and making their own assumptions about the trajectory of the virus and the economic crisis — including when a vaccine will be developed, how quickly businesses can get up and running, and even whether there will be a second wave of COVID-19 outbreaks in the summer or fall. Our economic indicators aren��t really designed to capture such a quickly unfolding crisis, which makes it even more difficult to predict what they’ll be saying a month or a year from now. “I assumed a base scenario where there’s a slow lifting of lockdown orders and no reversal,” Wright said. He also assumed there would be continued support from the Federal Reserve and Congress. “But what if there’s a big standoff in Congress and unemployment benefits don’t get extended? What if there’s a second wave of the virus?”

As such, many of the experts predicted a wide range of possible outcomes, particularly on questions that required them to project more than a few months into the future. For example, the economists’ median prediction for what the unemployment rate would be in the December 2020 jobs report — 12 percent — was just a little lower than the unemployment rate in the April jobs report (14.7 percent). But the experts’ confidence in their responses varied a lot — with upper-bound estimates ranging from 10 to 30 percent and lower-bound estimates ranging from 6 to 15 percent.

You can also see this uncertainty in our earlier question about when GDP will finally recover. The economists agreed that it was unlikely for real GDP to return to where it was before the COVID-19 pandemic anytime soon. But beyond that, they weren’t particularly sure when a recovery might happen.

None of these projections are especially encouraging — remember, the unemployment rate was only 3.5 percent back in February, and the peak during the Great Recession was 10 percent. But they’re also an important reminder of just how much is up in the air right now, as we scramble to simultaneously contain the virus and rev up the economy.

We’ll be checking in with the panel of economists periodically as the pandemic and economic crisis continue to unfold. Their predictions will likely shift as the economy reopens and the long-term public health response becomes clearer. But right now, even the experts don’t seem to be expecting a rapid rebound from this recession — in fact, the economic pain of the COVID-19 crisis could be with us for years.

#IFTTT #Politics – FiveThirtyEight #politics #538 #Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Neil Paine

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newstfionline · 4 years ago

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Headlines

State police returning to Portland following deadly shooting (AP) Oregon State Police will return to Portland to help local authorities after the fatal shooting of a man following clashes between President Donald Trump supporters and counter-protesters that led to an argument between the president and the city’s mayor over who was to blame for the violence. Trump and other speakers at last week’s Republican National Convention evoked a violent, dystopian future if Democratic presidential hopeful Joe Biden wins in November and pointed to Portland as a cautionary tale for what would be in store for Americans.

Snapped Poles, Shredded Roofs: A Long Road to Recovery After Laura (NYT) Hurricane Laura ravaged southwestern Louisiana, leaving weary residents to assess the toll and map a way forward. The damage the storm inflicted was so severe that it will be an immense undertaking just to clear debris. But beyond the physical labor, residents were also stepping into the thicket of bureaucracy that follows a hurricane, with insurance claims and applications for government aid. Officials said that roughly 368,000 customers in the state remained without electricity. Some 17,000 linemen were at work on repairs, but they had a lot to tackle: some 500 transmission towers were destroyed or damaged. In some places, utility companies said, it could be at least four weeks before electricity is restored. CoreLogic, an analytics firm in Irvine, Calif., estimated that the hurricane had caused insured losses of $8 billion to $12 billion. “The story here is going to be the wind damage,” said Curtis McDonald, a meteorologist with the firm.

Burning (NYT) According to researchers, somewhere between 4.4 million and 11.8 million acres in modern-day California burned every year in the earlier times. When people started moving there, and building there, and understandably preferring that their homes not burn, those natural fires were stopped. From 1982 to 1998, land managers in California burned on average 30,000 acres per year, which dropped to 13,000 acres from 1999 to 2017. The backlog is deadly, and one reason the state has become a powder-keg. A February 2020 study published in Nature Sustainability found California would need to burn 20 million acres to become stable.

A Zoom Thanksgiving? (AP) As the Summer of COVID draws to a close, many experts fear an even bleaker fall and suggest that American families should start planning for Thanksgiving by Zoom. Because of the many uncertainties, public health scientists say it’s easier to forecast the weather on Thanksgiving Day than to predict how the U.S. coronavirus crisis will play out this autumn. But school reopenings, holiday travel and more indoor activity because of colder weather could all separately increase transmission of the virus and combine in ways that could multiply the threat, they say. Here’s one way it could go: As more schools open for in-person instruction and more college students return to campuses, small clusters of cases could widen into outbreaks in late September. Public fatigue over mask rules and other restrictions could stymie efforts to slow these infections. A few weeks later, widening outbreaks could start to strain hospitals. If a bad flu season peaks in October, as happened in 2009, the pressure on the health care system could result in higher daily death tolls from the coronavirus.

Rethinking their slogan (Foreign Policy) The latest casualty of the coronavirus pandemic is the long-time slogan of popular U.S. fast food company Kentucky Fried Chicken (KFC). The slogan, “it’s finger lickin’ good,” has been used by the company on-and-off for 64 years, but KFC announced last week that it is suspending the slogan because it is no longer appropriate in the current health-conscious environment. Health experts discourage people from touching their faces in order to prevent the spread of the coronavirus, and users on social media criticized KFC for implicitly promoting unhealthy habits in its marketing campaigns. The company rolled out an advertisement in the United Kingdom and Ireland that ended with the tagline: “That thing we always say? Ignore it. For now.”

India’s economy contracts by nearly 24 percent amid pandemic (Washington Post) India’s economic output shrank by nearly 24 percent in the most recent quarter, the worst contraction since records began and the largest such drop of any major economy during the coronavirus pandemic. The stunning decline reflects the economic toll of India’s nationwide lockdown and illustrates the depth of the challenge now facing Indian policymakers as they grapple both with a hobbled economy and a raging pandemic. India is currently adding the largest number of new coronavirus cases per day of any country in the world. The Indian economy has not contracted for two consecutive quarters—the definition of a recession—in 40 years. Now the country appears certain to experience a recession and possibly one of unprecedented severity. That kind of economic slump would be devastating in a country like India, where 9 out of 10 workers have no job protections or unemployment insurance, leaving them with almost no safety net.

Indian army says foils Chinese attempt to encroach over disputed border (Reuters) Indian troops foiled an attempt by Chinese troops to encroach over the disputed and ill-defined border in the western Himalayas, the Indian army said on Monday, in a fresh flare-up between the two nuclear-armed countries. Pre-emptive action by the Indian troops was enough to deter the Chinese troops, and the confrontation did not escalate into a clash between the two sides, an Indian military official, who requested anonymity, told Reuters. China rejected any breach of the border by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) troops, but tensions between the two armies in the freezing snow deserts of the Ladakh region have been running high for several months.

Backing the monarchy in Thailand (Foreign Policy) Protesters gathered in a stadium in the Thai capital of Bangkok on Sunday to rally in support of the monarchy following massive student-led anti-government demonstrations in recent weeks. The event, which attracted around 1,200 people, was organized by the newly-formed pro-monarchy group Loyal Thai. “We insist that the country’s conflicts stem from politicians,” said Warong Dechgitvigrom, a prominent right-wing politician who founded the group. “The monarchy institution has no part in governing the country. The institution is the morale support that connects the people together.” Anti-government protesters have defied draconian laws against criticizing the monarchy in recent weeks to take to the streets to demand the ouster of Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, fresh elections, and a new constitution that would limit the powers of the monarchy.

Facial recognition and bathtime bookings: How China’s universities are reopening (Reuters) As COVID-19 cases in China sink to new lows, the world’s largest population of university students is heading back to campus in a migration defined by lockdowns, patriotic education and cutting-edge surveillance equipment. The highly choreographed return comes as Chinese universities revert to in-person instruction for the fall semester after months of pandemic controls. Some universities have strict rules governing how students eat, bathe and travel. Students in Beijing, Nanjing and Shanghai told Reuters that they must submit detailed movement reports and stay on campus. At the same time, government procurement documents show dozens of universities have purchased “epidemic control” surveillance systems based on facial recognition, contact tracing and temperature checks. There are more than 20 million university students in China, and most live on campus in shared dorm rooms, presenting a challenge for health authorities. On Chinese social media, students have chafed at the controls, which mirror restrictions on the wider population during the height of the outbreak in March.

With a Wary Eye on China, Taiwan Moves to Revamp Its Military (NYT) China’s growing aggression across Asia in recent months has created fears that it may make brash moves in Taiwan, the South China Sea or elsewhere. The ruling Communist Party’s recent crackdown on dissent and activism in Hong Kong, a former British colony that has long been a bastion of democratic values, has added to those concerns. Beijing’s posturing has forced Taiwan, an island of 24 million, to re-examine with new urgency whether it is prepared for a confrontation, the possibility of which now seems less remote. But there are questions about its readiness to defend its people—with or without the help of the United States. “I have to be honest: Taiwan’s military needs to improve a lot,” Wang Ting-yu, a member of Parliament’s foreign affairs and defense committee, said in a telephone interview. Taiwan’s leaders have been moving to shake up the military and increase spending. Military tensions across the Taiwan Strait have surged in recent months as Taiwan has increasingly become a focal point in the confrontation between China and the United States.

New prime minister in Lebanon (Foreign Policy) Mustapha Adib, Lebanon’s current ambassador to Germany, is set to become the country’s next prime minister as it continues to grapple with one of its worst crises since the end of the civil war in 1990. Adib won support from all of the major parties on Sunday, as well as from former prime ministers including Saad al-Hariri. He will be designated prime minister today just before a crucial visit from French President Emmanuel Macron.

Israeli, U.S. officials on historic flight to UAE to formalize normalization deal (Reuters) Top aides to U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made a historic first flight from Tel Aviv to the United Arab Emirates on Monday to finalize a pact marking open relations between the Gulf power and Israel. Even before discussions start in Abu Dhabi, the delegates made aviation history when the Israeli commercial airliner flew over Saudi territory on the direct flight from Tel Aviv to the UAE capital. Announced on Aug. 13, the normalization deal is the first such accommodation between an Arab country and Israel in more than 20 years and was catalyzed largely by shared fears of Iran.

#headlines #news

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onlinemarketinghelp · 5 years ago

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Finding Recession-Resistant Investments In The Face Of The Coronavirus https://ift.tt/2w14Ney

The coronavirus has presented investors with unprecedented uncertainty.

The global financial markets are still reeling from what WHO has called a pandemic, and the White House has declared a national emergency. Last month, the Dow Jones dropped 10 percent in one day, its largest one-day fall since 1987. The Federal Reserve Bank has even stepped in, injecting $1.5 trillion into the economy. In one month alone, the stock market lost well over 20%.

In light of these events, we thought it was interesting to see impact of the coronavirus on the fine wine market with a great deep-dive with our partners Vinovest. With more people looking for alternative investments, especially recession-resistant investments, let's look into this relatively unknown asset.

If you want to skip the details and learn more, check out Vinovest and see how you can invest in fine wine >>

Quick Navigation

How Does The Coronavirus Affect Fine Wine?

What Makes Fine Wine A Recession-Resistant Investment?

The Economics Of Fine Wine

Fine Wine vs. Gold In Recessions

Long-Term Appreciation In The Face Of Panic

Historical Performance Of Fine Wine

What To Expect From Here

How Does The Coronavirus Affect Fine Wine?

It is natural to wonder how the coronavirus will affect the value of fine wine. After all, equities are cratering under recent financial pressure. With that in mind, it's important to know that fine wine has almost no correlation with the stock market. Even in the most turbulent economic periods, fine wine manages to march on unscathed. Take the Great Recession in 2008. Stock prices plummeted 52 percent as people created a run on the money market funds. The price of fine wine, though? It had a single digit dip of nine percent.

What Makes Fine Wine A Recession-Resistant Investment?

Fine wine is not susceptible to the same market forces as traditional investments, like stocks, bonds, and mutual funds. While supply and demand impact both assets, the similarities disappear quickly after that. The separate sphere of influence is the key to the recession-resistance.

Factors That Influence The Price Of Wine:

Annual Harvest Yield

Consumer Tastes

Reputation

Tariffs

Vintage

Weather

Factors That Influence The Price Of Equities:

Company Earnings

Corporate Management

Dividends

Interest Rates

Political Climate

Barring a cataclysmic natural disaster or shift in consumer tastes, fine wine will remain a reliable investment. Outside factors, like the coronavirus or stock prices, are highly unlikely to influence whether or not someone wants to buy and consume wine. In an interview with Forbes, Silicon Valley Bank Wine Division founder Rob McMillian articulated the sentiment best, saying:

“We have to start the conversation by recognizing that people enjoy wine in good times and stressful times. Wine is not recession-proof, but it is recession-resistant. In the same way, it might not be virus-proof, but it will prove virus-resistant from an economic perspective. There is no chance we will see sweeping abstinence as a consequence of the virus.

Since the Great Recession, there have been several corrections in the stock market, the most recent being the coronavirus. While stock prices fluctuate during these times, the fine wine market tends to stay the same. Fine wine may experience a small decline. That said, there are precedents for price increases. We understand the coronavirus is creating a lot of concern. The cause for concern shouldn’t extend into investment-grade wine, though. It’s why fine wine is one of the few recession-resistant assets that can safeguard investors from the economic storm.

The Economics Of Fine Wine

Again, fine wine does not play by the same rules as traditional equities. For starters, wine has a fixed supply. Once the harvest is over, that is it. A winery cannot produce more wine for that vintage, even if it's a smashing success.

That supply will only decrease with time because investors will drink the wine. Even if the demand remains constant, the scarcity will drive up the price, barring a significant change in one of the factors mentioned above. The growth is buoyed by increasing interest in fine wine consumption from emerging markets, like India and China.

As Rob McMillian suggested, the coronavirus will not diminish people’s interest in wine. While the outbreak is far from ideal, people should not expect to see a meaningful change in consumption habits. The same cannot be said of the stock market.

The coronavirus has created a domino effect through fear, panic, and uncertainty, all things that investors want to avoid. As a result, many people are selling their stocks to minimize their losses or get their money into "safer" investments. As a result, American investors have lost roughly $3 trillion in wealth.

Fine Wine vs. Gold In Recessions

It's worth taking a moment to talk about gold. The odds are that when investors think of "safer" physical assets, they think of gold. That inclination is not without merit. Gold handily outperformed the S&P 500 from December 2007 to June 2009.

Historically, gold has had an inverse relation with the equity market during times of crisis. That correlation, though, is not stagnant. Gold’s recent performance suggests a positive correlation with the stocks, thus weakening its reputation as a risk-hedging investment.

The coronavirus-induced recession is a perfect example. The United States saw the first COVID-19 death on February 29. In the following days, Florida and California declared states of emergency, public and privates closed, and major corporations-imposed travel restrictions on employees. Gold, which had traded at $1,697 per ounce on March 2, fell 11 percent in a week.

There are other examples of gold’s increasing correlation with the stock market. During the 2018 US-China trade war, gold showed a 0.69 correlation, which means almost 50 percent of the variance between two is correlated. Mathematicians would call this value statistically significant. Fine wine, however, had a negative correlation, coming in at -0.55.

Gold is losing its luster as a portfolio diversifier. Its increasing correlation with the equity market fails to protect investors, despite its “safe haven” reputation. Additionally, the price of gold has more than quadrupled since 2000, far outpacing the reasonable demand for the physical product.

Long-Term Appreciation In The Face Of Panic

It is unclear how long the coronavirus will last. China is returning to its new normal after roughly 50 days. All countries, though, are not as well-equipped or proactive when it comes to treating COVID-19.

While the immediate financial world is in upheaval, fine wine is a long-term investment. It is not something people day trade, like stocks, to make marginal capital gains. Investors do not have the pressure of time when selling wine.

That is, in part, because wine gets better with age. All grapes have a compound called tannins. The organic substance is in the seeds, skin, roots, and leaves of the grape. While the quantity of tannins varies based on the grape varietal, they are present in every wine, to some extent.

Tannins have a bitter and astringent taste. Over time, though, they break down, which makes a wine smoother and more balanced. It is one of the reasons why wine producers put so much emphasis on proper and extended aging. To reap the benefits of aging, investors will likely need enough patience to outlast the 2020 flu season.

Historical Performance Of Fine Wine

Predictions are challenging, and the coronavirus only adds more uncertainty to the equation. The best way to understand what the future holds is to look at the past. From 2008 to 2010, in the throes of the global recession, the Liv-ex 1000, which tracks 1,000 wines from across the world, returned a little less than zero.

The same recession-resistant applied abroad. The March Gestion Vini Catana fund, which started in December 2009, invests in wine production and vineyards. Within a year after opening, it was up nine percent compared to a 3.7 percent decline for the FTSE 100. Meanwhile, the average hedge fund at this time was down 0.2 percent.

The question here is, why? During economic struggles, investor’s preferences do not change in a meaningful way when it comes to fine wine. It is one of the reasons why annual wine consumption has grown for the past 20 years. By the same token, people who purchase investment-grade wine can often afford to hold on to their collections during recessions, mitigating the risk of fire sales.

Wine Business Monthly published a study about which wineries performed the best during the recession in 2008. One of its conclusions was that large wineries had the resources to deal with the downturn. They have well-established consumer bases and can leverage economies of scale.

The second conclusion was that wineries that owned the means of production thrived. Translation: wineries like Château Lafite Rothschild, Screaming Eagle, and many more are in good shape. These estates control their land, grapes, and production, all the way through to distribution. Therefore, they do not have the same concerns as boutique producers that rely on purchasing grapes.

Unsurprisingly, sub-indices, like the Bordeaux 500 and Burgundy 150, performed well during the Great Recession. The former saw a 50 percent increase in value from 2009 to 2011. As for the Burgundy 150, its growth was closer to 60 percent.

The best case for fine wine’s recession-resistant is its history. While it is not impervious, it has stood up against the Great Depression, Dot Com bubble, and more. Researchers found the long-term investment performance of young-maturing wines from high-quality vintages provided the strongest financial return. Not only did it demonstrate remarkable recession-resistance, but it has also outpaced competitors, like fine stamps, arts, and bills, during the same time.

What To Expect From Here

As Managing Director of Cult Wines Ltd. Tom Gearing put it, “fine wine can act as a defensive asset class in times of economic crisis but also benefit from periods of economic growth.” It is why many people use fine wine as a way to round out their long-term investment strategy. The investment reduces overall risk while adding diversification and stability.

While clouds are darkening over Wall St, fine wine is a silver lining. The short-term volatility resistant and long-term appreciation will counteract the chaotic snapshot of the world today.

If you have any additional questions about wine investment, check out Vinovest today.

The post Finding Recession-Resistant Investments In The Face Of The Coronavirus appeared first on The College Investor.

from The College Investor

The coronavirus has presented investors with unprecedented uncertainty.

If you want to skip the details and learn more, check out Vinovest and see how you can invest in fine wine >>

Quick Navigation

How Does The Coronavirus Affect Fine Wine?

What Makes Fine Wine A Recession-Resistant Investment?

The Economics Of Fine Wine

Fine Wine vs. Gold In Recessions

Long-Term Appreciation In The Face Of Panic

Historical Performance Of Fine Wine

What To Expect From Here

How Does The Coronavirus Affect Fine Wine?

What Makes Fine Wine A Recession-Resistant Investment?

Factors That Influence The Price Of Wine:

Annual Harvest Yield

Consumer Tastes

Reputation

Tariffs

Vintage

Weather

Factors That Influence The Price Of Equities:

Company Earnings

Corporate Management

Dividends

Interest Rates

Political Climate

The Economics Of Fine Wine

Fine Wine vs. Gold In Recessions

Long-Term Appreciation In The Face Of Panic

Historical Performance Of Fine Wine

What To Expect From Here

While clouds are darkening over Wall St, fine wine is a silver lining. The short-term volatility resistant and long-term appreciation will counteract the chaotic snapshot of the world today.

If you have any additional questions about wine investment, check out Vinovest today.

The post Finding Recession-Resistant Investments In The Face Of The Coronavirus appeared first on The College Investor.

https://ift.tt/39s5Ku4 April 01, 2020 at 10:15AM https://ift.tt/39uZORf

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go-redgirl · 5 years ago

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Bradley Blakeman

Stop Blaming Trump for Coronavirus - Now

Mar 26, 2020

The president has done a great job based on the hand he's been dealt. Enough of the blame. Enough of taking advantage of crisis for political gain. Now is the time for all good men and women of good will to come to our nation's aid.

While Democrats in Congress today, many of whom were in leadership positions during the Obama sdministration, are now quick to blame our president for the "lack of pandemic preparedness," they cannot rewrite history.

Long before Donald J. Trump became the nation's 45th U.S. president, the Obama administration failed to properly prepare and properly deal with the Ebola outbreak — in 2014.

We were blessed as a nation that it was not as severe as it was.

This because we were simply not prepared.

In 2014, I authored a Newsmax opinion piece, "America Isn’t Prepared for a Pandemic."

At the time, I sounded the alarm and detailed Obama administration failures to properly and adequately pick up where the Bush administration left off in preparing the nation for a pandemic.

In 2014 I wrote:

"President Obama has a long history of blaming Bush for all that ails us but, with regard to national preparedness for pandemics, the Bush administration was way ahead of where the CDC and HHS finds us today as we struggle to deal with just a few domestic cases of the highly infectious Ebola virus.

"Flashback to 2008 — the Center for Disease Control awarded $24 million for pandemic influenza preparedness projects.

"According to the CDC, this was the plan:

"The CDC would spend $24 million to fund 55 projects in 29 state and local public health departments that could serve as innovative approaches for influenza pandemic preparedness.

"This is what Dr. Richard Besser, the Director of CDC’s Coordinating Office of Terrorism and Preparedness and Emergency Response, said about the program: 'What is learned from these projects can benefit everyone because it could improve national, regional, and local public health detection and response to a pandemic involving influenza.'

"'CDC intends for the recipients to implement promising practices or to develop effective approaches and models that can be replicated nationally,'" Dr. Besser said.

"State and local health departments in a competitive application process submitted a total of 184 funding applications. Eligible applicants for the awards were limited to the 62 state, local, and territorial public health departments that currently receive federal funding through CDC agreement.

"The 29 award recipients had one year to complete the projects, which began on September 30, 2008. The projects focus on seven key areas and include:

"1. Use of public engagement as part of the public health decision-making process

"2. Electronic laboratory data exchange to support influenza pandemic monitoring

"3. Integration of state-based immunization information systems to track distribution of influenza pandemic countermeasures

"4. Development of statewide electronic death reporting systems compliant with Public Health Information Network (PHIN) requirements

"5. Collaborative planning among healthcare providers to ensure the delivery of essential services during an influenza pandemic

"6. Development of interventions that promote preparedness for pandemic disease among identified vulnerable populations

"7. Distribution and dispensing of antiviral drugs to self-isolated or self-quarantined persons in an influenza pandemic event

"The $24 million for the new projects were part of $600 million in CDC’s Public Health Emergency Preparedness supplemental funding appropriated by Congress to accelerate state and local influenza pandemic planning efforts. The focus of the funding, which was distributed in three phases beginning in 2006, was on practical, community-based procedures that could prevent or delay the spread of influenza pandemic.

"Complimenting what CDC was doing, Bush’s Health and Human Services Secretary Michael Levitt made the preparation for a pandemic a national priority and embarked on a national tour of states to raise awareness and set forth protocols for federal, state and local officials.

"As part of President Bush’s plan to mobilize the nation to prepare for an influenza pandemic, Secretary Leavitt in 2005 announced $100 million in funding for state and local preparedness. In December of 2005, the secretary hosted a national summit on pandemic in Washington, D.C., and thereafter took his pandemic planning summits to all 50 states.

"This is what Secretary Levitt said at the time:

"'A pandemic is a global disease outbreak. Influenza pandemic occurs when a new flu virus emerges for which people have little or no immunity. The disease spreads easily from person to person, causes serious illness, and can sweep across the country and around the world in a very short time.

"'Currently, much attention is focused on avian, or 'bird flu,' as the possible cause of a pandemic. However, it is important to note that avian flu is not easily transmitted from human to human, and no human cases have been reported in the United States.'"

"Ebola is a virus and so is influenza. This is how the CDC defines influenza:

"'Seasonal influenza, commonly called 'the flu,' is caused by influenza viruses, which infect the respiratory tract, i.e., the nose, throat, lungs. Unlike many other viral respiratory infections, such as the common cold, the flu can cause severe illness and life-threatening complications in many people. It is estimated that in the United States, each year on average 5 percent to 20 percent of the population gets the flu and more than 200,000 people are hospitalized from seasonal flu-related complications. Flu seasons are unpredictable and can be severe. Over a period of 30 years, between 1976 and 2006, estimates of flu-associated deaths in the United States range from a low of about 3,000 to a high of about 49,000 people.'"

"HHS at the time said this about pandemic influenza:

"I attended many of Secretary Levitt’s Pandemic Summits and they were effective in preparing federal, state, and local health, community, and first responder leadership in ways to address how hospitals, schools, businesses, public agencies, faith-based organizations, and others participate in pandemic preparedness. With these meetings, officials were able to identify needs specific to the communities they serve and begin crucial coordination to assure readiness if a pandemic outbreak strikes.

"The Bush administration was on the forefront of national infectious disease preparedness in 2005-2008.

"The Obama administration has been caught flatfooted in 2014.

"What happened in the last 6 years? Why has the Obama administration dropped the ball in pandemic preparedness?

"Leaders are supposed to prevent bad things from happening and not merely respond to it when it does.

"The incompetent national response to Ebola today shows that our nation has lost its edge in preparedness and proves that we are vulnerable to a massive and deadly infectious disease outbreak in the U.S."

Democrats are good at passing the buck, but the buck stopped with them when they were in control and were forewarned. They are the ones who dropped the ball. When Democrats now scream at Trump for respirators, masks, gowns and other materials we have to ask —why didn’t the Obama administration and Congress order them under their watch?

The president has done a great job based on the hand he's been dealt.

Enough of the blame. Enough of taking advantage of crisis for political gain.

Now is the time for all good men and women of good will to come to the aid of our country.

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christelpipkin8-blog · 5 years ago

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Foreign Exchange Outbreak Solutions - Foreign Exchange Early Morning Trade Testimonial

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mariacallous · 2 years ago

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Foreign Policy Morning Brief: China’s endless zero-COVID nightmare

By Christina Lu

Welcome to today’s Morning Brief, where we’re looking at anguish over China’s zero-COVID policy, Russia’s escalating attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, and Ethiopia’s peace talks.

China Vows To Stick To Zero-COVID

Any hopes that China would adopt a new pandemic strategy were crushed on Saturday when officials vowed to stick to a zero-COVID policy, even as the harsh approach fuels outrage and discontent among the public.

Beijing’s adherence to zero-COVID spells continued anguish for Chinese citizens, who have grown increasingly frustrated under nearly three years of forced lockdowns, mass testing, and travel restrictions that have completely upended public life.

Since the pandemic first began, authorities have enforced zero-COVID with an inflexible, one-size-fits-all approach—with devastating results. Last week, lockdown restrictions in Lanzhou prevented a father from securing medical assistance for his sick 3-year-old son for almost two hours. When his son eventually reached the nearby hospital, he died of carbon monoxide poisoning; the hospital was only a 10-minute car ride away.

It’s one of many cases that illustrate the incalculable human costs of Beijing’s rigid policy. A 55-year-old woman reportedly committed suicide after being locked down last week, while 27 people being sent to mandatory quarantine were killed in a bus crash in September. In the city of Chengdu, workers forced locked-down residents to stay indoors even as an earthquake struck.

Just last week, authorities also trapped as many as 200,000 workers employed in China’s ‘iPhone City’ to quash a COVID outbreak, reflecting the extreme lengths authorities are willing to go to in order to stamp out the virus.

As Beijing sticks to its aggressive approach, China’s youth are confronting extreme uncertainty and despair. “For a generation of young Chinese whose lives have been reshaped by the zero-COVID policy, the disease often seems less of a threat than the government,” Tracy Wen Liu argued in Foreign Policy.

“It’s almost impossible for most ordinary people to live even an average life under all the strict rules and regulations,” Xu, a Chinese woman in her 20s, told her. “It takes extraordinary amounts of effort to be ordinary.”

What We’re Following Today

Russia targets Ukrainian infrastructure. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said that Russia is set to ramp up its attacks on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure as millions of people face power blackouts. Moscow’s assault has already devastated 40 percent of the country’s electrical grid.

“We also understand that the terrorist state is concentrating forces and means for a possible repetition of mass attacks on our infrastructure. First of all, energy,” Zelensky said.

Egyptian activist’s hunger strike. Alaa Abd el-Fattah, a detained British-Egyptian pro-democracy activist has gone on hunger strike, sparking a diplomatic crisis between Britain and Egypt. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak met Egypt’s president, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi yesterday and raised the activist’s case, but there has reportedly been no progress toward securing his release. Abd el-Fattah, who was a key player in the Arab spring, is now refusing water. According to John Casson, a former U.K. ambassador to Egypt, “the next 24 to 48 hours are crucial.”

Ethiopia’s peace talks. Delegates representing the Ethiopian government and Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) began negotiations on Monday to determine the terms of a truce that was signed last week, including the matters of disarmament, humanitarian assistance, and monitoring processes. They also set up a hotline to help improve communication over preserving the cease-fire.

Keep an Eye On

Rare dissent in Russia. Heavy military losses in eastern Ukraine have sparked a backlash against military commanders and elicited a rare official response from the defense ministry. Survivors and the families of those killed have complained publicly that troops from Russia’s far east were used as cannon fodder in Ukraine’s Donetsk region.

Pro-Kremlin military bloggers recently published a letter from soldiers in the 155th Brigade decrying “an incomprehensible offensive” near the village of Pavlivka. “As a result of the ‘carefully’ planned offensive by the ‘great generals,’ we lost about 300 people killed, wounded and missing as well as half the equipment in four days,” the surviving soldiers wrote. According to the Washington Post, “It was the first time since the start of Russia’s invasion that the ministry has officially responded to reports of mass casualties and criticism of commanders on Telegram.”

Latin American leaders meet. The leaders of Mexico, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru will meet in Mexico City later this month, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador announced on Monday. It is unclear whether Brazilian President-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will join.

Tanzania’s plane crash. Nineteen people were killed after a passenger plane crashed into Lake Victoria on Sunday. The plane had 43 people on board. Tanzanian authorities are conducting a rescue operation and investigation into what happened.

Monday’s Most Read

• The Cult of Modi by Ramachandra Guha

• The Obvious Climate Strategy Nobody Will Talk About by Ted Nordhaus, Vijaya Ramachandran, and Patrick Brown

• The U.N. (as We Know It) Won’t Survive Russia’s War in Ukraine by James Traub

Odds and Ends

Feeling anxious or stressed? Some people are finding solace by digging holes, the Wall Street Journal reported. Scientists, inventors, and artists have long used the activity to help clear their heads and troubleshoot difficult problems.

For others, digging up sand can simply be a good way to unwind. Charlie Mone, a student and avid hole-digger, told the Wall Street Journal that the activity is “just relaxing” for him and his friends. “We were there on the beach and we thought, ‘Well, what else are you going to do?’ ” he said. “So we started to dig.”

That’s it for today.

For more from FP, visit foreignpolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters.

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xtruss · 3 years ago

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Four Facts About Soaring Consumer Food Prices

— Blogs.IMF.Org | June 24, 2021

— By Christian Bogmans, Andrea Pescatori, and Ervin Prifti

Rising world food prices for producers are making headlines and causing concerns among the public. The most recent data show a moderation in consumer food price inflation globally, but as we explain below, that could change in the coming months. This would only add to the high prices that consumers in many countries already lived through last year.

If prices eventually rise again, there will likely be sizeable differences between countries. Due to various factors, it is probable that the effect would be felt most by consumers in emerging markets and developing economies still wrestling with the effects of the pandemic.

“Emerging Markets and Low-income Countries are More Vulnerable to Food Pprice Shocks.”

Fact #1: Food price inflation started increasing before the pandemic.

The increase in consumer food price inflation predates the pandemic. In the summer of 2018, China was hit by an outbreak of African swine fever, wiping out much of China’s hog herd, which represents more than 50 percent of the world’s hogs. This sent pork prices in China to an all-time high by mid-2019 creating a ripple effect on the prices of pork and other animal proteins in many regions around the world. This was compounded by the introduction of Chinese import tariffs on US pork and soybeans during the US-China trade dispute.

Fact #2: Early lockdown measures and supply chain disruptions induced a spike in consumer food prices.

At the start of the pandemic, food supply chain disruptions, a shift from food services (such as dining out) towards retail grocery, and consumer stockpiling (coupled with a sharp appreciation of the US dollar) pushed up consumer food price indices in many countries—with consumer food inflation peaking in April 2020—even though producer prices of primary commodities, including food and energy, were declining sharply as demand for primary food commodities was disrupted. By early summer 2020, however, various consumer food prices had moderated, pushing down consumer food inflation in many countries.

So while food prices at your grocery store (i.e., consumer food prices) may have increased, it is an exaggeration to say that they are currently rising at their fastest pace in years. They are also not currently contributing to headline inflation, though they may do so later this year and in 2022 (see the outlook below). Producer prices, on the other hand, have recently soared (see fact #4). But it takes at least 6-12 months before consumer prices reflect changes in producer prices. Also, on average, the pass-through from producer to consumer prices is only about 20 percent. This is because consumer food prices include the shipping costs of primary food commodities, the processing, marketing and packaging of food, and final distribution costs such as transport costs.

The last two facts will help us understand what to expect for consumer food prices.

Fact #3: Soaring shipping and transport costs.

Ocean freight rates as measured by the Baltic Dry Index (a measure of shipping costs) have increased around 2-3 times in the last 12 months while higher gasoline prices and truck driver shortages in some regions are pushing up the cost of road transport services. Higher transport costs will eventually increase consumer food inflation.

Fact #4: Global food producer prices have rallied reaching multi-year highs.

From their trough in April 2020, international food (producer) prices have increased by 47.2 percent attaining their highest (real) levels on May 2021 since 2014 (highest level ever in current dollar terms). Between May 2020 and May 2021, soybean and corn prices increased by more than 86 and 111 percent, respectively.

There are three main factors behind the recent rally in producer prices: (1) Demand for staples for both human consumption and animal feed has remained high, especially from China, as countries have stockpiled food reserves due to pandemic-related worries about food security. (2) The recent 2020-2021 La Niña episode—a global weather event occurring every few years—has led to dry weather in key food exporting countries, including Argentina, Brazil, Russia, Ukraine, and the United States. This has caused, in some cases, harvests and harvest outlooks to fall short of expectations. As demand has outpaced supply, US and world stocks-to-use ratios—a measure of market tightness—reached multi-year lows for some staples. (3) Strong demand for biofuels increased speculative demand by non-commercial traders, and export restrictions are additional factors supporting world producer prices.

Outlook

Based on the four facts presented, it is plausible that consumer food price inflation will pick up again in the remainder of 2021 and 2022. Indeed, the recent sharp increase in international food prices has already slowly started to feed into domestic consumer prices in some regions as retailers, unable to absorb the rising costs, are passing on the increases to consumers. More is likely to come, however, since international food prices are expected to increase by about 25 percent in 2021 from 2020, stabilizing in 2021. A pass-through of 20 percent (13 percent in the first year and 7 percent in the second) would, thus, imply an increase in consumer food price inflation of about 3.2 percentage points and 1.75 percentage points on average in 2021 and 2022, respectively. An additional 1 percentage point to the 2021 global consumer food inflation could be added by the higher freight rates.

The impact, however, will vary by country. Consumers in emerging markets could experience even higher increases due to the higher dependency on food imports (e.g. countries in sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East and North Africa). The pass-through from producer prices to consumer prices also tends to be larger for emerging markets. For low-income countries struggling from the pandemic, the effects of further food inflation could be dire and risk a backslide in efforts to eliminate hunger.

Emerging markets and low-income countries are also more vulnerable to food price shocks because consumers in these countries typically spend a relatively large proportion of their income on food. Finally, for emerging markets and developing economies an additional risk factor is the currency depreciation against the US dollar—possibly due to falling export and tourism revenues and net capital outflows. Since most food commodities are traded in US dollars, countries with weaker currencies have seen their food import bill increase.

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epacer · 3 years ago

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Education

Back-to-school during COVID-19: What parents need to know

Students are starting the new school year this month in a turbulent time with a fast-spreading coronavirus variant and fights about COVID-19 safety measures.

The Delta variant is increasing COVID-19 case rates and raising concerns among parents about whether their child will be safe at school. Meanwhile, some parents who don’t want to wear masks are working to discredit face coverings, which experts say are the most important measure to prevent the spread of COVID-19, after vaccines.

The Union-Tribune spoke to experts from the local chapter of the American Academy of Pediatrics to answer some of parents’ frequently asked questions about going back to school during COVID-19.

Is it safe to send my kid to school?

As long as schools are doing all the right things, mainly enforcing universal masking and increasing ventilation in classrooms, students can be safe at school, said Josef Zwass, neonatal medicine specialist at Kaiser Permanente San Diego.

School districts that started the new school year last month have reported hundreds of COVID-19 cases in school. But most COVID-19 cases originate from outside the school, school officials say.

“The school is only as safe as the community. When community rates rise, we’re going to see more cases in school,” said Jaime Friedman, pediatrician at Children’s Primary Care Medical Group and spokesperson for the local chapter of American Academy of Pediatrics. “Whatever parents can do now to help their communities be safer will help the schools be safer.”

There have been 72 outbreaks in K-12 schools, out of 1,789 total outbreaks in San Diego County since the pandemic began. That’s compared to 703 outbreaks in businesses and 337 in restaurants and bars. Outbreaks are when there are three probable or confirmed COVID-19 cases within a 14-day period.

When will kids under 12 be able to get vaccinated?

Pfizer expects to have trial data for an emergency use authorization of a vaccine for children ages 5 to 11 by the end of September, a Pfizer spokesperson told NPR in a story last week. Trial data for children under 5 will follow shortly after that.

Moderna is expecting to have data for authorization of a vaccine for children ages 6 to 11 by the end of the year. Currently, Moderna’s vaccine is only allowed for people 18 and up.

How likely is it that kids will get COVID-19, spread COVID-19, or get hospitalized or die because of COVID-19?

Children are less likely to get seriously sick from COVID-19 than adults, but the numbers of children getting COVID-19 have increased recently.

One reason is the Delta variant, which is much more transmissible than previous versions of the coronavirus and has been increasing COVID-19 rates regardless of age or vaccination status.

Second, states have lifted the bulk of COVID-19 mitigation measures and people are more comfortable going out and having more potential COVID-19 exposure, Friedman noted. Schools are no longer closed. Lockdowns and mask mandates have been lifted, even in areas where vaccination rates are low, Friedman said.

Also, children under 12 years old are the only age group who can’t get vaccinated yet.

As of Aug. 17, the 7-day average case rate for San Diego County children nine years old and under was 27.4 per 100,000 people, according to county COVID data collected and analyzed by data scientist Elizabeth Shulok of the group San Diegans for Safe Schools. That was lower than the 37.1 per 100,000 case rate for the overall county population.

The COVID-19 hospitalization rate for children nine years old and under was 1.3 percent, and for children 10-19 it was 0.7 percent.

Does my child have to wear a mask? Do masks work?

Yes, students in all public and private K-12 schools must wear masks while indoors, according to state rules. All school staff must also wear masks while indoors with students.

Studies have shown that masks are highly effective at preventing the spread of COVID-19.

A study released in June of more than 864,000 students attending in-person school last spring in North Carolina, where masks were mandatory, found that there were only 308 student cases where COVID-19 spread at school. There was a less than 1 percent chance of getting COVID-19 at school, the study found.

Another study of about 5,500 students and staff in rural Wisconsin schools found that, with required universal masking, COVID-19 rates were lower for schools than the community at large and only one in 20 cases found in school had been transmitted in school.

Are masks unhealthy for kids? For example, will my kid get sick from bacteria in their mask, or do masks hurt kids’ well-being?

There is no evidence that masks make people sick or hurt children’s development, Friedman said. When she works with babies while wearing a masks, the babies can still see her smile behind her mask, and they smile back, she said.

Friedman has never seen or heard of a patient who got a bacterial infection from wearing a mask. She noted that everybody already has bacteria on their skin and in their mouth — bacteria that could theoretically get on the mask — but that bacteria doesn’t re-infect people.

Friedman said the biggest harm to children’s development is if they’re not around other children, and if wearing masks means they can be at school with their friends, then wearing masks is the much better choice.

Zwass and Friedman said there’s a simple solution to concerns about mask bacteria: use masks properly. Only use disposable masks for a day, and wash then dry reusable masks after each day of use.

What happens if someone tests positive for COVID-19 at my kid’s school?

Your child may have to quarantine if they become a close contact, which means they spent more than 15 minutes over a 24-hour period, indoors, within six feet of somebody who tests positive for COVID-19.

If your student is a close contact but has been vaccinated or has had COVID-19 within the past three months, they do not have to quarantine as long as they don’t show symptoms, according to state rules.

That’s why experts and educators are urging parents to get their kids vaccinated — not only because they provide protection against COVID-19, but because vaccination will reduce the amount of time kids miss school due to quarantine.

If your child is not vaccinated, but both your child and the COVID-positive person were wearing masks, then your child can continue going to school in-person if they have no symptoms, undergo COVID-19 testing twice weekly for 10 days, and quarantine from extracurricular activities.

If your child is not vaccinated, is a close contact, and was not wearing a mask, or the person who tests positive was not wearing a mask, then your child must quarantine for at least seven days. If he or she takes a COVID-19 test after the fifth day of quarantine and tests negative, then they can go back to school after the seventh day. Otherwise, without testing, the student can go back to school after 10 days.

What if I don’t want to send my kid to school?

All public schools are required this year to provide an at-home learning option for students, called independent study. Independent study can be virtual schools with live teacher instruction; others can look more like home school, where students work on assignments on their own and check in with a teacher periodically.

Many school districts have deadlines for signing up for the independent study option. Once students sign up for independent study, they are generally expected to commit to that option for the entire school year. *Reposted article from the UT by Kristen Taketa, August 23, 2021

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classyfoxdestiny · 3 years ago

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As Childhood Covid Cases Spike, School Vaccination Clinics Are Slow Going

CHEYENNE, Wyo. — There were no cheery signs urging “Get your Covid-19 vaccine!” at the back-to-school immunization clinic at Carey Junior High School last week. In the sun-drenched cafeteria, Valencia Bautista sat behind a folding table in a corner, delivering a decidedly soft sell.

Hundreds of 12- and 13-year-olds streamed through with their parents to pick up their fall schedules and iPads. Ms. Bautista, a county public health nurse, wore a T-shirt that said “Vaccinated. Thanks, Public Health” and offered vaccines against ailments like tetanus and meningitis, while broaching the subject of Covid shots gently — and last.

By day’s end, she had 11 takers. “If they’re a no, we won’t push it,” she said.

Vaccination rates among middle and high school students need to rise drastically if the United States is going to achieve what are arguably the two most important goals in addressing the pandemic in the country right now: curbing the spread of the highly infectious Delta variant and safely reopening schools. President Biden told school districts to hold vaccination clinics, but that is putting superintendents and principals — many of whom are already at the center of furious local battles over masking — in a delicate position.

The Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is authorized for people 12 and older, but administering it to anyone younger than 18 usually requires parental consent, and getting shots into the arms of teenagers has proved harder than vaccinating adults. Only 33 percent of 12- to 15-year-olds and 43 percent of 16- and 17-year-olds are fully vaccinated, according to federal data, compared with 62 percent of adults. Yet some school districts offering the shots, along with pediatrics practices, appear to be making progress: Over the past month, the average daily number of 12- to 15-year-olds being vaccinated rose 75 percent, according to Biden administration officials.

As the school year begins, many superintendents do not know how many of their students are vaccinated against Covid-19; because it is not required, they do not ask.

It is no surprise that nurses like Ms. Bautista are circumspect in their approach. In Tennessee, the state’s top immunization leader, Dr. Michelle Fiscus, said she was fired last month after she distributed a memo that suggested some teenagers might be eligible for vaccinations without their parents’ consent.

In Detroit, where county health officials have been running school-based clinics all summer, nurses discovered “strong hesitancy” when they made more than 10,000 calls to parents of students 12 and older to ask whether their children would get the shots and answer questions about them, said the deputy superintendent, Alycia Meriweather. More than half said no.

In Georgia, Savannah-Chatham County Public Schools held their back-to-school clinic at the mall — a “neutral location,” said M. Ann Levett, the superintendent. She is also planning school-based clinics, she said, despite some political pushback and “Facebook chatter” accusing her of “pushing the vaccine on kids.”

Ms. Levett said she was deeply concerned about whether she would be able to keep schools open.

“This is only the second day of school, and already we have positive cases among children,” she said in a recent interview. Her district has a mask mandate, but with 37,000 students, “I just introduced 37,000 more opportunities for the numbers to rise.”

In Laramie County, the center of the Delta surge in Wyoming, the Health Department proposed back-to-school clinics to Janet Farmer, the head nurse in the larger of the county’s two school districts. Ms. Farmer knew she would have to tread carefully. The flier she drafted for parents of students at the county’s three middle schools made little mention of Covid-19.

“Vaccines — NOT Mandatory,” it declared.

Nationally, more children are hospitalized with Covid-19 — an average of 276 each day — than at any other point in the pandemic. In Laramie County, Dr. Andrew B. Rose, a pediatrician at the Cheyenne Children’s Clinic and the president of Wyoming’s chapter of the American Academy of Pediatrics, said two newborns — one a few days old, the other younger than two weeks — were recently admitted to the hospital with Covid-19 symptoms after their parents tested positive.

Wyoming, a heavily Republican state where nearly 70 percent of voters cast their ballots for former President Donald J. Trump in 2020, has one of the nation’s lowest vaccination rates, with about a third of its population fully vaccinated. Laramie County has about 100,000 people and Cheyenne, the state capital, which bills itself as “home to all things Western” including “rodeos, ranches, gunslingers” and eight-foot-tall cowboy boots.

At Casey Junior High, few children or adults wore masks at the recent clinic, despite a sign on the door saying they were “strongly recommended.” Parents seemed to have visceral reactions; they were either enthusiastic about the Covid shot or adamantly against it. Those who were wavering were few and far between, and not easy to persuade.

A nurse in blue scrubs and her husband, a nuclear and missile operations officer at the nearby Air Force base, who declined to give their names, wandered past Ms. Bautista’s table with their 12-year-old son. Their daughter, 13, has cystic fibrosis and is vaccinated. But their son was reluctant. They chatted amiably with Ms. Bautista, but decided to wait.

Cheyenne Gower, 28, and her stepson Jaxson Fox, 12, both said they were leaning toward getting the shot after talking with their doctors. Ms. Gower, citing the Delta surge, said she would get vaccinated soon. Jaxson said he was “still thinking about it” after his pediatrician discussed the risk of heart inflammation, a very rare side effect seen in young boys ages 12 to 17.

Updated

Aug. 20, 2021, 7:34 a.m. ET

“Put down that I’m more on the getting it side,” he instructed, eyeing a reporter’s notebook.

Although the vaccines were tested on tens of thousands of people and have been administered to nearly 200 million in the United States alone, many parents cited a lack of research in refusing. Aubrea Valencia, 29, a hair stylist, listened carefully as Ms. Bautista explained the reasons for the human papilloma virus and meningitis vaccines. Ms. Valencia agreed that her daughter should take both.

But when it came to the coronavirus vaccine, she drew the line. “The other two have been around longer,” she said, adding that she might feel “different about it if we had known someone who died” from the coronavirus.

Every once in a while, the nurses encountered a surprise, as when Kristen Simmons, 43, a professional dog handler, marched up with her son, Trent.

“He turned 12 on Monday, and so we want to get his Covid vaccine,” she declared. Ms. Bautista and the other nurses looked stunned.

“We tend to be more liberal,” Ms. Simmons later said — a statement that would have sounded odd in explaining a medical decision before the pandemic.

In the spring, when vaccines were limited to older Americans who were clamoring for them, officials including Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the top U.S. infectious diseases expert, envisioned fall 2021 as the last mile of a campaign that could produce “herd immunity” by year’s end. Vaccinating children was crucial to that plan.

Now it is clear that will not happen. Children ages 11 and under are not yet eligible, but if and when the vaccine is authorized for them, experts expect it could be harder to persuade their parents than those of older children. A recent survey by the Kaiser Family Foundation found that parents of younger children were “generally more likely to be hesitant to vaccinating,” said Liz Hamel, who directed the research.

Understand the State of Vaccine and Mask Mandates in the U.S.

Mask rules. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in July recommended that all Americans, regardless of vaccination status, wear masks in indoor public places within areas experiencing outbreaks, a reversal of the guidance it offered in May. See where the C.D.C. guidance would apply, and where states have instituted their own mask policies. The battle over masks has become contentious in some states, with some local leaders defying state bans.

Vaccine rules . . . and businesses. Private companies are increasingly mandating coronavirus vaccines for employees, with varying approaches. Such mandates are legally allowed and have been upheld in court challenges.

College and universities. More than 400 colleges and universities are requiring students to be vaccinated against Covid-19. Almost all are in states that voted for President Biden.

Schools. On Aug. 11, California announced that it would require teachers and staff of both public and private schools to be vaccinated or face regular testing, the first state in the nation to do so. A survey released in August found that many American parents of school-age children are opposed to mandated vaccines for students, but were more supportive of mask mandates for students, teachers and staff members who do not have their shots.

Hospitals and medical centers. Many hospitals and major health systems are requiring employees to get a Covid-19 vaccine, citing rising caseloads fueled by the Delta variant and stubbornly low vaccination rates in their communities, even within their work force.

New York. On Aug. 3, Mayor Bill de Blasio of New York announced that proof of vaccination would be required of workers and customers for indoor dining, gyms, performances and other indoor situations, becoming the first U.S. city to require vaccines for a broad range of activities. City hospital workers must also get a vaccine or be subjected to weekly testing. Similar rules are in place for New York State employees.

At the federal level. The Pentagon announced that it would seek to make coronavirus vaccinations mandatory for the country’s 1.3 million active-duty troops “no later” than the middle of September. President Biden announced that all civilian federal employees would have to be vaccinated against the coronavirus or submit to regular testing, social distancing, mask requirements and restrictions on most travel.

For school superintendents and public health officials who are intent on bringing students back to the classroom — and keeping them there — the low vaccination rates, coupled with the Delta surge, are worrisome.

Wyoming won national praise for keeping schools open all last year. Gov. Mark Gordon, who contracted Covid-19 last year and has encouraged people to get vaccinated, imposed a statewide mask mandate in December that he kept in place for schools even after he lifted it in March, which helped limit the spread of disease in classrooms. Despite the Delta surge and a recommendation from the C.D.C. for universal masking in schools, Mr. Gordon, a Republican, said this month that he would not impose another mandate and that he would leave it to each district to decide.

In Laramie County School District 1, which has about 14,000 students, including about 840 at Carey Junior High, the school board recently cut short its public meeting about masking when a man began ranting about another hot-button issue: critical race theory.

“Fifty percent of the calls here have been, ‘Please mask our kids,’ and 50 percent of the calls have been, ‘We’re not wearing masks,’” said Margaret Crespo, who left Boulder, Colo., about six weeks ago to become the new District 1 superintendent. “There’s no gray area.”

Dr. Crespo plans to make an announcement on masking on Friday, just before the school year starts on Monday.

Fights over the masking issue are even more divisive than the vaccination campaign, “and that is playing out in front of our eyes,” said Ray Hart, the executive director of the Council of the Great City Schools, which represents the country’s largest urban school districts.

“Everywhere I go this summer, that’s part of the message: Let’s get vaccinated,” said Allen Pratt, the executive director of the National Rural Education Association. But “because it’s government, you’ve got a line in the sand where people don’t trust you, and you’ve got to be understanding.”

White House officials have also been encouraging pediatricians to incorporate coronavirus vaccination into back-to-school sports physicals. Many districts are offering the shots during sports practice, with a reminder to athletes that if they are vaccinated, they will not have to quarantine and miss games if they are exposed to the coronavirus.

Laramie County District 1 offered coronavirus vaccines at mandatory clinics to educate high school student athletes about concussions; 32 students accepted shots, said Ms. Farmer, the nurse. The numbers were better at the junior high clinics; over two days at three schools with a total of about 2,400 students, more than 100 took their shots.

Ms. Farmer was satisfied.

“If it’s 100 people,” she said, “that’s 100 that didn’t have it yesterday.”

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theliberaltony · 4 years ago

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via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

After President Trump won the 2016 election, there was a big debate over the role “identity politics” played in his victory. Some scholars argued that many white voters without a college degree — a group that proved pivotal in that election — jumped from supporting then-President Barack Obama in 2012 to Trump in 2016 largely because they liked Trump’s framing of identity issues, such as immigration, more than Hillary Clinton’s.1 After the election, some (usually white) liberal and Democratic-leaning voices said that Democrats needed to abandon “identity politics” or face more defeats like Clinton’s. Other liberal voices (often Black) said that Trump had successfully tapped into the racist views of many white Americans. Both of those perspectives implied that debating issues of identity and race was bad for Clinton and good for Trump, and in the future it would be good for the GOP and bad for Democrats.

Never mind all that, at least for now. America is talking about identity and race, and so are both presidential candidates. And all that racial talk seems to be helping Democrats, not Republicans. Joe Biden led Trump by about 6 percentage points in national polls on May 25, the day a Minneapolis police officer killed George Floyd. Biden leads Trump by an average of nearly 10 points now, after weeks of race and racism dominating the national discussion.

Obviously a lot of factors could explain Trump’s decline in the polls, most notably the coronavirus outbreak and the president’s failure to come up with any real plan to limit the virus’s spread.

But it’s worth exploring this question: Why aren’t identity politics backfiring on Biden and helping Trump? It’s hard to say for sure, but here are five theories, ordered roughly from strongest to weakest.

Trump is in the White House now

Some political science research suggests that public opinion on major issues tends to move against the sitting president. So if President John Doe says he hates Granny Smith apples, Americans will begin consuming them by the bushel. And that pattern has already played out with Trump, with Americans becoming more supportive of immigrants and Obamacare, likely in reaction to the president’s attempts to limit immigration and repeal the health care law.

Current polling — and even polls from earlier in the Trump presidency — has shown Americans expressing more liberal views on racial issues. Those numbers might suggest real change in racial attitudes among Americans. (More on that in a bit.)

But what looks right now like increasing racial liberalism may really just be anti-Trump sentiment. If Americans, particularly Democratic-leaning Americans, perceive that Trump is opposed to the Floyd protests and to racial justice causes more broadly, they might become more supportive of such causes, consciously or unconsciously, simply as a reaction to the president’s sentiments.

So in terms of identity politics and their role in presidential elections, it may have been that a racialized discourse was electorally bad for Democrats when their party controlled the White House, like in 2016. But this kind of discourse is fine and perhaps even electorally beneficial for Democrats with a Republican president in office.

Also, the story here could simply be that Trump is a flawed candidate who was going to struggle in 2020 no matter what issues were dominating the news at the time. After all, he was viewed unfavorably by 60 percent of voters on Election Day in 2016, according to exit polls, and he has remained fairly unpopular throughout his presidency. In 2019 and earlier this year, Democrats spent a lot of time debating which of their potential presidential candidates was most “electable.” But Biden’s almost-10-point lead suggests that basically any of the other 2020 Democratic presidential candidates would likely be leading Trump right now if he or she were the presumptive Democratic nominee.

2016 was a fluke and identity politics don’t always hurt Democrats

Part of the focus on identity issues as an electoral liability stems from the current makeup of swing states and the Electoral College. White voters without degrees have become increasingly Republican-leaning and represent a disproportionate share of the electorate in key swing states like Michigan and Wisconsin. So Democrats need to worry more about appealing to white voters without degrees to win an Electoral College majority than they would if presidential elections were decided by a simple national plurality vote. Thus, a lot of post-2016 coverage started from the assumption that Democrats have an identity and race problem because they must appeal to white voters without degrees and that voting bloc — at least based on the 2016 results — seemed to be put off by Democrats’ approach to identity issues.

But that framing might be wrong, or at least a bit overstated. Why? First, there’s an alternate reading of the 2016 results that suggests race wasn’t an unusually important factor in motivating the white voters who switched to Trump. Second, the overall racial dynamics of American politics are not that bad for Democrats and perhaps even favorable to them.

Zoom out beyond 2016 and take the long view: The last seven presidential elections have featured four Democratic victories in both the popular vote and the Electoral College (1992, 1996, 2008, 2012); one instance where the GOP won the popular vote and Electoral College (2004); and two kind of fluky GOP wins in which Republicans lost the popular vote but won the Electoral College (2000, 2016).

That long view doesn’t look great for Republicans, and identity and race help explain why. Democrats have been handily winning the vote among Asian, Black and Hispanic Americans, who combined are growing as a share of the electorate. (The share of nonwhite U.S. voters was about 26 percent in 2016, compared to about 13 percent in 1980.) Democrats’ status as the party of minorities helps them in some ways, requiring the GOP to consolidate an increasingly high percentage of the country’s white voters to win elections.

But it isn’t easy or necessarily guaranteed that the Republicans will overwhelmingly win the white vote overall or the white non-college vote specifically — even in an election that’s centered on race. The 2017-2018 period was full of racialized political debate, most notably on immigration policy, but the exit polls suggest Democrats lost white voters without a college degree by 24 percentage points in 2018, compared to 37 points in 2016. So far in 2020, polls show Biden losing white voters without a degree by a margin closer to 20 points.

Meanwhile, Biden might carry white voters with a college degree by a large margin, in part because those voters have been turned off by Trump’s approach to racial issues. Indeed, white voters with a college degree or postgraduate education have been trending Democratic for years, and the GOP approach to race and ethnicity is likely a factor.

In short, the evidence suggests that Trump’s approach on racial issues never really appealed to people of color in the first place and, outside of November 2016, it has also been really off-putting to white voters with degrees and not that appealing to white voters without degrees.

It’s harder to use Biden as a wedge

On policy issues, including those around identity and race, Biden’s positions are clearly to the left of the ones Obama ran on in 2008 and arguably to the left of Clinton’s in 2016. In explicitly promising to pick a woman as vice president and a Black woman as Supreme Court justice, Biden has gone beyond Clinton or Obama in terms of allocating very important government posts based on gender and race. And Biden’s rhetoric on racial issues is similar to Clinton’s in 2016. After Floyd’s death, while Trump largely dismissed the protests, Biden called for “an era of action to reverse systemic racism.”

But Biden is an older white man. So his identity likely makes it harder for Trump to run an identity-based campaign against Biden than against Clinton and, to some extent, incumbent president Obama. (The Atlantic’s Adam Serwer made this argument explicitly in a recent piece.) Biden does not visually symbolize a changing America the way President Obama did and the way a President Hillary Clinton would have.

Also, Biden has self-consciously positioned himself as a more moderate Democrat and has distanced himself from more liberal elements of the party, including the causes favored by more liberal Black Americans, like defunding the police.

The electorate has really shifted on racial issues

It’s possible that Trump’s identity politics are less effective in 2020 than they were in 2016 because the events of the last four years have resulted in a real leftward shift on racial issues among Americans. And that shift is fundamental and real, not just about partisanship or anti-Trump sentiment, as I suggested above. After all, in interviews with reporters, more liberal-leaning people and even some former Trump voters are suggesting that they understand racial inequality more deeply now than ever before.

Institutions are aligned with Biden on these issues

Major U.S. businesses, corporations and other elite institutions are typically wary of being perceived as partisan. But in the wake of Floyd’s death, corporate America seems to have decided, for whatever reason, that support for Black Lives Matter and comprehensive, aggressive efforts to reduce racial inequality are either not that partisan or that they’re stances worth taking even if they annoy some Republicans.

So at least right now, it’s not really Biden and Democrats versus Trump and Republicans on issues of identity and race in America; rather, it’s Biden, Democrats, Facebook, Merck, JPMorgan Chase, Netflix, Nike, Stanford and lots of other major institutions versus Trump and Republicans.

This dynamic is not totally unique to the spring and summer of 2020. Major companies in America are often aligned with liberal cultural values — for example, supporting gay marriage even before the 2015 Supreme Court ruling that invalidated any remaining bans on same-sex unions.

But even if corporate America’s recent posture on racial issues isn’t that surprising, it’s still important. With a lot of major institutions in America echoing his general message, it’s not surprising that Biden’s identity politics are resonating more than Trump’s.

I’m writing this article at a particular moment in time. Perhaps there will be a backlash to the Floyd protests and public opinion will shift. Maybe Trump will benefit from that. If Biden picks a female vice presidential nominee, particularly one who is also a person of color, perhaps Trump’s identity tactics will resonate more with voters because he’ll then have a foil who is more like Clinton and Obama. Alternatively, Trump could make up ground in the polls due to unrelated issues and factors.

And even if Biden wins, that won’t totally answer the question of whether identity politics is bad or good for Democrats. LIke I said, perhaps basically any Democratic candidate would beat Trump amid a viral outbreak the president mishandled.

All that said, it appears right now that the identity politics of 2020 are a net plus for Democrats — and perhaps they weren’t too big a problem for Democrats in the first place. It’s hard to prove any of this, but it’s an important discussion to have. In 2008, it seemed like Democrats won a presidential contest that was largely about race. But even though the presidential nominees were white in 2016 and 2020, those may have been more racialized campaigns. And if the current polls hold up, Democrats, after losing a very racialized campaign, may show that they can win one.

#IFTTT #Politics – FiveThirtyEight #politics #538 #Perry Bacon Jr.

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newstfionline · 4 years ago

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WHO Issues Warning As Daily Caseload Grows (Foreign Policy) As dense crowds of protesters gather around the world, and New Zealand announces a return to life as usual, it’s easy to forget that a pandemic is still raging. On Monday, the WHO recorded the largest daily increase in new coronavirus cases since the pandemic began, 136,000 in total; 75 percent of new cases came from just ten countries, mostly in the Americas and South Asia.

Stress is skyrocketing among the middle-aged (Marketwatch) If you’re middle-aged and you’re thinking, “I don’t remember everyone being this angry and miserable 20 or 30 years ago,” you’re not wrong. A recent study confirms what many people in later middle age already feel: We really are much more stressed than middle-aged people were back in the 1990s. The good news? As we get older our levels of stress will go down again. We’ll be happier in retirement than we are in our 40s and 50s, even with health issues. Older people experience fewer stressors and are able to cope with them better, says David Almeida, a psychologist and professor of human development at Pennsylvania State University. Meanwhile, the simplest answer is to move more. “My advice to people is to move when you are exposed to stress,” he says. “Moving, physical activity, is probably the best stress reducer.”

After Protests, Politicians Reconsider Police Budgets and Discipline (NYT) In an abrupt change of course, the mayor of New York vowed to cut the budget of the nation’s largest police force. In Los Angeles, the mayor called for redirecting millions of dollars from policing after protesters gathered outside his home. And in Minneapolis, City Council members pledged to dismantle their police force and completely reinvent how public safety is handled. As tens of thousands of people have demonstrated against police violence over the past two weeks, calls have emerged in cities across the country for fundamental changes to American policing. The pleas for change have taken a variety of forms—including measures to restrict police use of military-style equipment and efforts to require officers to face strict discipline in cases of misconduct. Parks, universities and schools have distanced themselves from local police departments, severing contracts. In some places, the calls for change have gone still further, aiming to abolish police departments, shift police funds into social services or defund police departments partly or entirely.

U.N. General Assembly won’t meet in person for first time in 75-year history (Washington Post) For the first time in the United Nations’ 75-year history, world leaders won’t convene in New York for the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting this September. U.N. General Assembly President Tijjani Muhammad-Bande explained Monday that an in-person gathering during the coronavirus pandemic would be impossible because world leaders typically travel with large delegations of aides and security personnel, making it hard to keep the numbers of attendees at events low. “A president doesn’t travel alone, leaders don’t travel alone,” he said. The session will instead take place remotely, though U.N. officials have yet to say exactly what that might look like.

Mexico’s Leader Rejects Big Spending to Ease Virus’s Sting (NYT) Across the globe, governments have rushed to pump cash into flailing economies, hoping to stave off the pandemic’s worst financial fallout. They have mustered trillions of dollars for stimulus measures to keep companies afloat and employees on the payroll. The logic: When the pandemic finally passes, economies will not have to start from scratch to bounce back. In Mexico, no such rescue effort has come. The pandemic could lead to an economic reckoning worse than anything Mexico has seen in perhaps a century. More jobs were lost in April than were created in all of 2019. A recent report by a government agency said as many as 10 million people could fall into poverty this year. Yet most economists estimate that Mexico will increase spending only slightly. Hostile toward bailouts, loath to take on public debt and deeply mistrustful of most business leaders, Mexico’s president has opted largely to sit tight.

Cuba almost coronavirus free (Foreign Policy) Cuba—a country that prides itself on its health system—has almost vanquished its coronavirus epidemic, according to official data. It has recently averaged less than ten cases per day and on Monday went nine consecutive days without a reported death from COVID-19. “We could be shortly closing in on the tail end of the pandemic and entering the phase of recovery from COVID,” President Miguel Diaz-Canel said over the weekend.

Spain makes masks mandatory until coronavirus defeated (Reuters) Wearing masks in public will remain mandatory in Spain after the country’s state of emergency ends on June 21 until a cure or vaccine for the coronavirus is found, Health Minister Salvador Illa said on Tuesday.

This round’s on us, says Malta (Reuters) Residents of Malta will be given $112 vouchers by the government to spend in bars, hotels and restaurants in an effort to revitalize the tourist industry. Tourism accounts for a quarter of the Mediterranean island’s GDP but it has been at a standstill since mid-March when flights were stopped during the coronavirus emergency. Flights to a small number of countries will resume on July 1 but they exclude big tourism source markets Britain and Italy.

Russia rejects Iran embargo (Foreign Policy) Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov has called for “universal condemnation” of the U.S. campaign to pass a permanent arms embargo on Iran through the United Nations Security Council. In a letter to U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, Lavrov called the U.S. attempt to hold Iran to the confines of the Iran deal while the United States had already broken the deal was “ridiculous and irresponsible.”

Moscow’s strict coronavirus lockdown turns lax overnight (Washington Post) In a sudden about-face from one of the world’s strictest coronavirus lockdowns, Moscow dramatically eased restrictions Tuesday, abolishing the city’s digital-pass system for travel and allowing salons and most other nonessential businesses to open. Schedules for when Muscovites were allowed outside based on their address have also been done away with after just one week. Restaurants and cafes will be allowed to serve people on verandas starting June 16 and nearly all restrictions will be lifted by June 23—the day before Russia’s rescheduled Victory Day parade on Moscow’s Red Square. The city’s walk schedules and requirements for wearing face masks outside have increasingly been ignored by residents, and Moscow authorities might have been feeling the pressure from small businesses that have been closed since late March with little government aid to sustain them.

Tracking the origin of the coronavirus outbreak (Daily Telegraph) Coronavirus may have broken out in the Chinese city of Wuhan much earlier than previously thought, according to a new US study looking at satellite imagery and internet searches. The Harvard Medical School research found that the number of cars parked at major Wuhan hospitals at points last autumn was much higher than the preceding year. It also found that searches from the Wuhan region for information on “cough” and “diarrhea”, known Covid-19 symptoms, on the Chinese search engine Baidu spiked around the same time. It has led researchers to suggest that the outbreak began much earlier than December 31, the date the Chinese government notified the World Health Organization of the outbreak.

North Korea cuts off all communication with South Korea (AP) North Korea said it was cutting off all communication channels with South Korea on Tuesday, a move experts say could signal Pyongyang has grown frustrated that Seoul has failed to revive lucrative inter-Korean economic projects and persuade the United States to ease sanctions. The North’s Korean Central News Agency said all cross-border communication lines would be cut off at noon in the “the first step of the determination to completely shut down all contact means with South Korea and get rid of unnecessary things.” North Korea has cut communications in the past—not replying to South Korean phone calls or faxes—and then restored those channels when tensions eased.

The Palestinian Plan to Stop Annexation: Remind Israel What Occupation Means (NYT) Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel is pressing for annexation in conjunction with the Trump administration’s peace plan, which at least ostensibly contemplates an autonomous Palestinian entity as part of what it calls a “realistic two-state solution.” Mr. Netanyahu has vowed to annex up to 30 percent of the West Bank, and could do so as early as next month. But to the Palestinians, annexation flouts the ban on unilateral land grabs agreed to in the Oslo Accords in the 1990s, and would steal much of the territory they have counted on for a state. For that reason, they say it would kill all hope of a two-state solution to the conflict. In response to the annexation plan, Mr. Abbas renounced the Palestinians’ commitments under the Oslo agreements last month, including on security cooperation with Israel. The strategy aims to remind the Israelis of the burdens they would assume if the Palestinian Authority disbanded, and to demonstrate that they are willing to let the authority collapse if annexation comes to pass. The Palestinian Authority says it will cut the salaries of tens of thousands of its own clerks and police officers. It will slash vital funding to the impoverished Gaza Strip. And it will try any Israeli citizens or Arab residents of Jerusalem arrested on the West Bank in Palestinian courts instead of handing them over to Israel.

#headlines #news

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orbemnews · 4 years ago

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The Week in Business: Go Ahead, Put Off Your Taxes Good morning and happy spring. Here’s hoping you can enjoy another Sunday spent ignoring your tax returns (or, if you’ve already done them, feeling smug about it). But first, here’s what you need to know in business and tech news for the week ahead. — Charlotte Cowles What’s Up? (March 14 to 20) More Time for Taxes Good news for procrastinators like me, or anyone whose taxes were complicated by the pandemic: The Internal Revenue Service has extended the deadline to file taxes by one month, to May 17. The extra time will help people navigate new tax rules that took effect with the passage of the American Rescue Plan. The law made the first $10,200 of unemployment benefits tax-free for people who earned less than $150,000 last year, a significant benefit for many people whose jobs were disrupted. But if you’ve already filed, don’t worry — the I.R.S. said it would automatically send those refunds to people who qualify. Well, That Was Awkward Relations between China and the Biden administration got off to a rocky start last week at the first face-to-face meeting between diplomats. The United States set a confrontational tone on the eve of the talks by imposing sanctions on 24 Chinese officials for undermining democracy in Hong Kong. In turn, China’s top diplomat accused his American counterparts of being “condescending,” among other claims. The purpose of the three-day meeting, according to President Biden’s team, was to find common ground on climate change and on controlling the pandemic, and to address U.S. concerns about Chinese trade and military encroachments. The tension does not bode well for making headway in future negotiations. The Case Against Disney Ten women who are suing the Walt Disney Company for what they call “rampant gender pay discrimination” have added another accusation to their list: that Disney “maintains a strict policy of pay secrecy.” A new section of the lawsuit refers to an episode in which one female Disney employee was “disciplined for disclosing her pay to co-workers.” Pay transparency is considered an important part of closing racial and gender wage gaps, and retaliation for discussing your own salary violates California law as well as the National Labor Relations Act. Disney has denied the claims and vowed to defend itself. What’s Next? (March 21 to 27) Coming to a Walmart Near You Walmart is jumping on the vaccine passport bandwagon, saying it will provide standardized digital vaccination credentials to anyone who gets vaccinated at one of its stores or at Sam’s Club. The retailer will develop a health passport app that people can use to verify their status at airports, schools, sports arenas and other potentially crowded places. Walmart joins an existing push by major health centers and tech companies, including Microsoft, Oracle, Salesforce and the Mayo Clinic, as well as a proposal from the European Union, which would require vaccine verification for travel in certain areas. How Has the Pandemic Changed Your Taxes? Will stimulus payments be taxed? Nope. The so-called economic impact payments are not treated as income. In fact, they’re technically an advance on a tax credit, known as the Recovery Rebate Credit. The payments could indirectly affect what you pay in state income taxes in a handful of states, where federal tax is deductible against state taxable income, as our colleague Ann Carrns wrote. Read more. Are my unemployment benefits taxable? Mostly. Unemployment insurance is generally subject to federal as well as state income tax, though there are exceptions (Nine states don’t impose their own income taxes, and another six exempt unemployment payments from taxation, according to the Tax Foundation). But you won’t owe so-called payroll taxes, which pay for Social Security and Medicare. The new relief bill will make the first $10,200 of benefits tax-free if your income is less than $150,000. This applies to 2020 only. (If you’ve already filed your taxes, watch for I.R.S. guidance.) Unlike paychecks from an employer, taxes for unemployment aren’t automatically withheld. Recipients must opt in — and even when they do, federal taxes are withheld only at a flat rate of 10 percent of benefits. While the new tax break will provide a cushion, some people could still owe the I.R.S. or certain states money. Read more. I worked from home this year. Can I take the home office deduction? Probably not, unless you’re self-employed, an independent contractor or a gig worker. The tax law overhaul of late 2019 eliminated the home office deduction for employees from 2018 through 2025. “Employees who receive a paycheck or a W-2 exclusively from an employer are not eligible for the deduction, even if they are currently working from home,” the I.R.S. said. Read more. How does the family leave credit work? Self-employed people can take paid caregiving leave if their child’s school is closed or their usual child care provider is unavailable because of the outbreak. This works similarly to the smaller sick leave credit — 67 percent of average daily earnings (for either 2020 or 2019), up to $200 a day. But the caregiving leave can be taken for 50 days. Read more. Have rules changed on charitable giving? Yes. This year, you can deduct up to $300 for charitable contributions, even if you use the standard deduction. Previously, only people who itemized could claim these deductions. Donations must be made in cash (for these purposes, this includes check, credit card or debit card), and can’t include securities, household items or other property. For 2021, the deduction limit will double to $600 for joint filers. Rules for itemizers became more generous as well. The limit on charitable donations has been suspended, so individuals can contribute up to 100 percent of their adjusted gross income, up from 60 percent. But these donations must be made to public charities in cash; the old rules apply to contributions made to donor-advised funds, for example. Both provisions are available through 2021. Read more. Back in the Hot Seat Chief executives from Facebook, Google and Twitter will be grilled in Congress this Thursday, this time over their failure to crack down on the spread of misinformation. Tech executives were last summoned by lawmakers in November 2020, when Mark Zuckerberg of Facebook and Jack Dorsey of Twitter faced a firestorm of questioning about content moderation, mostly regarding their attempts to prevent a wave of falsehoods about the presidential election. This time, they will be asked about coronavirus vaccine misinformation and about the election fraud conspiracy theories that continue to spread on their platforms. Elsewhere in Washington The two biggest names in economic policy — the Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen — will make their first joint appearance this week when they testify before the House Financial Services Committee on the progress of pandemic relief efforts. The hearing comes one week after the Fed revised its economic outlook to project stronger growth and offered more reassurances that it would keep interest rates near zero for the coming years. What Else? The Education Department jettisoned a Trump-era policy that limited debt relief for students who were defrauded by for-profit educational institutions. The newly hired Teen Vogue editor, Alexi McCammond, resigned over racist and homophobic tweets that she posted a decade ago. And retail sales dropped 3 percent in February as consumers grappled with declining stimulus effects and devastating winter storms. Source link Orbem News #Ahead #Business #put #Taxes #Week

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