#stand with russian protestors against the war

[girlactionfigure]

🟠 Tue night - ISRAEL REALTIME - Connecting to Israel in Realtime

(1 of 2)

▪️(Not Israel, but this is major) NUKES:  Russian Ministry of Defense: "We started the first phase of the tactical (non-strategic) nuclear weapons exercises in the southern military zone, under the direction of President Putin.  The purpose of the exercises is to maintain the competence of the military units in regards to the use of tactical nuclear weapons."

▪️DEFENSE MIN ON ARREST WARRANTS.. “The attempt of the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, Karim Khan, to reverse the situation will not succeed - the parallel of the prosecutor between the terrorist organization Hamas and the State of Israel is despicable and disgusting. The State of Israel is not a party to the Court and does not recognize its authority.

Prosecutor Karim Khan's attempt to deny the State of Israel the right to defend itself and free its hostages must be rejected outright.”

RUSSIA on the warrants: "We are not part of this institution and do not recognize its jurisdiction."

▪️LEBANON.. Walid Jonblatt, who heads the Progressive Socialist Party in Lebanon and the Druze community says: “We are only at the beginning of the war with Israel."

🔶 DEAL TALKS.. Qatari Foreign Ministry: "The talks on a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of the hostages are about to reach an impasse.”

▪️ISRAEL CONFISCATES AND SHUTS DOWN.. a live AP news feed from Sderot showing live IDF activity in Gaza, the feed of which was being sold to Al Jazeera.  The Min. Of Communications says it warned that the feed was illegal and harming IDF actions, but was ignored.  

.. The White House: "The report is being investigated, journalists have the right to do their job - it bothers us.”

.. AP: We comply with the Israeli censorship laws which forbid the showing of the movement of soldiers which could endanger them. The live footage of the Gaza Strip usually shows smoke rising from the area.

▪️TRUCK FILLED WITH INFILTRATORS.. a flatbed truck was caught at Eliyahu checkpoint into Israel hiding 7-11 infiltrators (most likely for work) under the bed.

▪️COUNTER ANTI-AID PROTEST.. Arab and Jewish activists from the "Standing Together" movement went to the Tarkomiya checkpoint to prevent anti-aid protestors from stopping aid trucks from Jordan heading to Gaza (and usually taken by Hamas).

▪️HOUTHIS SHOOT DOWN.. another US MQ-9 observation drone, the 5th one, at US$ 30 million each.

▪️THE REAL SAUDI STORY.. an official from the Saudi palace spoke to N12: "Without real guarantees for a two-state solution - there will be no normalization."

▪️ON THE CONSCRIPTION LAW.. Mothers on the Front" movement: "According to the order of the High Court and the position of the ombudsman, recruitment orders for the charedi candidates should have been sent starting on April 1. Every day that they are not sent, this constitutes a serious injury to the IDF soldiers and their commanders and is a de facto offense against the law.”

🟠 Tue night - ISRAEL REALTIME - Connecting to Israel in Realtime

(2 of 2)

▪️LAG B’OMER.. Tiberius: Mayor orders closure of Rabbi Akiva tomb/complex from Shabbat until Monday, including access roads to the area - to prevent crowds on Lag b’Omer and becoming a war target risk.

Beit Shemesh: Large temporary bleachers and facilities being assembled in the RBS-D section of the city, to allow Lag b’Omer celebrations with an attendance of tens of thousands.

▪️IDF CLOSES.. and mothballs remaining Patriot anti-air and anti-missile batteries, opening additional Iron Dome batteries instead.

🔥FIRE TERROR - PISGAT ZE’EV, JERUSALEM.. fire broke out in the Mir forest near Pisgat Ze'ev in Jerusalem. Firefighting planes have been launched and many teams are working on the scene. Molotov cocktails were reported thrown. 

♦️JENIN - SHOMRON.. major counter-terror operation has been going throughout the day.  IED’s fired by terrorists, IDF forces destroy a terror house, firefights.

Hamas: "The Jenin massacre will not stop us from continuing and escalating the resistance operations throughout Judea and Samaria.”

♦️RAFAH, GAZA.. conflicting reports: mainstream media says Israel not deploying additional forces following a US plan for ‘gradual safe civilian protecting action’, alternate reports say 2 additional fighting battalions deployed with a significant expansion of fighting in Rafah.

♦️LAUNCHERS IN A MOSQUE.. Troops of the Armored Brigade operating on the outskirts of Jabaliya located a cache of rockets and launchers in a mosque. Captured.

♦️POP-UP CAUGHT.. Troops of Givati Battalion captured three armed operatives who popped up out of a tunnel in Rafah.  The three were detained and taken for further questioning.

⭕ HEZBOLLAH fires ANTI-TANK MISSILES at Mt. Dov.  Started a fire.

⭕ HEZBOLLAH ROCKETS intercepted over Tiberius, also fired at Baram.

⭕ HAMAS ROCKETS at Ashkelon, intercepted.

[corrodedbisexual]

1 year. Day 366 and no light in sight because my home country's terrorist government keeps committing war crimes.

I know it's been somewhat normalized to paint all Russians the same color. It's fair that we'll never feel the same way as those suffering the bombings. And it's fair that millions of our citizens, brainwashed and enraged by the propaganda that's much stronger and more versatile than what Hitler had at his disposal, unfortunately, actually support the war.

But also, there's millions of compassionate, intelligent, well-informed people who have never been psychologically anywhere near okay since reading the news on February 24th, 2022. Even the ones who were lucky to flee the country are daily haunted by the current events.

This black square is what tens of thousands of people posted in their social networks on day one. Day one is also when thousands of peaceful anti-war protestors were arrested, and many faced a jail sentence as a result.

Since then, I've seen endless fear, despair and depression. I've talked to people who were downright suicidal because of shame and helplessness. There were weeping mothers scared their sons will be conscriped to the warfront. Old people who still remember the consequences of WW2 atrocities and whose hearts can barely bear their own country doing exactly the same things Hitler's army used to.

Our spare funds are divided between financial support to the war refugees and the few independent news networks and bloggers speaking the truth against the propaganda, trying to survive on youtube after being legally driven out of the country, as well as organizations who provide legal support to the arrested anti-regime protestors.

Our spare time is devoted to trying to speak the truth to our "pro" friends and relatives, swimming upstream against the tv propaganda that is 100 times louder, and writing letters to political prisoners who tried to speak up against the war and were arrested for it, reminding them they're not alone.

Our thoughts only briefly get distracted with mundane things like work and family and hobbies before being dragged back into the harsh reality by reading news about another bombing.

Nothing that used to matter matters anymore. Many people used to make epic life plans for "after COVID ends", but those are all forgotten. The future is dark, ruled by an insane dictator who wants to burn the whole world down to the ground including his own country. The opposition has no leaders, either imprisoned (Navalny, 2021 or Yashin, 2022), or assassinated (Nemtsov, 2015), or driven out of the country by threat of prison. The peaceful protest has no prospect, not when millions of armed police officers and army soldiers are still loyal to the regime.

We believe in Ukraine. Ukraine will prevail, because Ukraine is the light, and no darkness can stand against the light. But darkness can keep existing while hiding under a rock. And Russia, under the current dictatorship regime, is currently set to become just that. Dark, miserable and isolated, like Iran and North Korea. And frankly, we're all terrified.

[thxnews]

UK Denounces Russia at UN Ukraine Meet

UK Condemns Russia’s Invasion at UN Meeting Two years after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the UK has reaffirmed its strong stance against the ongoing conflict at the United Nations Security Council. Ambassador James Kariuki delivered a powerful statement emphasizing the detrimental impact of the war on both the Russian and Ukrainian people.   The Heavy Toll of Russia's Invasion Russia’s Losses and Global Condemnation The invasion has resulted in over 300,000 Russian military casualties. Russian society has faced significant repercussions, including arrests of anti-war protestors and media censorship. Russia's defense capabilities have also severely regressed, with its military resorting to sourcing equipment from dubious international sources, contravening multiple UN resolutions.   The Futility of the War Economic and Territorial Losses for Russia The war has proven detrimental to Russia, leading to significant territorial losses and economic sanctions amounting to over $400 billion. The conflict has sparked a mass exodus of young Russians seeking better futures elsewhere, underlining the senselessness of the conflict.   Russia’s Actions Against Ukrainian Civilians Humanitarian Crisis and Violations Russia's actions in Ukraine pose a continuous threat to civilians, with reports of systematic torture and impeding humanitarian access. Russian missile strikes on population centers contradict their claims of seeking peace.   UK’s Firm Support for Ukraine Military and Humanitarian Assistance The UK remains steadfast in its commitment to Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity. This includes replenishing Ukraine’s air defenses, signing security cooperation agreements, and providing substantial military and humanitarian aid.   The UK’s Unwavering Commitment Upholding Ukraine’s Sovereignty and Global Security Emphasizing Ukraine's security as pivotal for global stability, the UK stands unwavering in supporting Ukraine's right to self-defense and a peaceful future.   Sources: THX News, Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office & James Kariuki. Read the full article

[goldiers1]

UK Foreign Office Condems Ongoing Violence in Sudan

  The UK strongly condemns the ongoing violence between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support forces in Khartoum and multiple cities across Sudan. It must stop immediately. The UK expresses its heartfelt regret for the loss of innocent lives by those caught up in this violence and calls on the Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces to cease all hostilities against each other. Now is the time for the Sudanese leadership to de-escalate tensions and prevent further bloodshed. The UK calls on Sudanese leadership to return to dialogue. After months of fruitful political discussion, and real progress toward the return of a civilian-led transition, military action is not the solution. Long-term peace is possible, but only through open, honest, and pragmatic discussion. The UK stands in solidarity with the people of Sudan in their demands for a peaceful and democratic future. Innocent civilians should not pay the price of their futures due to this violence. --- End of Official UK Government Statement ---  

Sudanese protestors greeting sudanese army. Photo by Mohamed Salih Kambal. Flickr.  

Recent History of the Conflict

The Sudanese conflict has been fueled by many external powers, including Russia and China. Russia backed the 1991 coup in Sudan that ousted the democratically elected government. The country has since benefited from the war by getting access to Gold and Gum Arabica. In return, the Sudanese government has provided free land for a naval base and has given Russia access to purchase planes, tanks, and artillery. This has made Russia an active player in Sudan's economy since the last century.   Chinese Involvement China has been actively involved in Sudan's economy from an economic perspective. They were once actively exporting Sudanese oil but have reduced these imports in recent times. However, China has presented many loans to the Government and has involvement in various utility companies. They have also built several infrastructure projects such as dams, railway lines, and highways. These activities have made China a significant investor in Sudan's economy.   Western Interests The Western powers, including the US and the EU, have an eye on Sudan as a conflict zone that's contributing to economic and conflict immigration into Southern Europe. They have an interest in building peace in Sudan by focusing on the political aspect of the conflict. The West is more in line with the rebel's cause for greater democracy, and they are actively trying to resolve the conflict through peaceful means. The US has already lifted sanctions from Sudan; however, the country remains in turmoil. The Sudanese conflict is not just about external powers, but about ideology too. Rebels have been fighting for a democratic government where citizens have equal rights and opportunities. The government, on the other hand, is mainly composed of one religious and cultural group, making it challenging for other groups to have a say. This disparity in ideology is at the core of the Sudanese conflict.  

Internal Fighting within the Government

In the last week, there has been more intensified fighting with the conflict between Abdul Fattah al Burhan, the president of the Supreme Transitional Council, and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, the leader of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo is a member of the secretive Russian organization Wagner, which has continued to grow in Sudan.  

Conclusion

The Sudanese conflict is complex and multifaceted, involving external powers such as Russia and China in its economy and rebels fighting for a democratic government. Each group has a different interest and perspective on the matter. However, it is essential to recognize that at the core of the conflict, a battle for ideology is taking place. The Sudanese deserve a better future where they can participate actively in their government and society. The path toward that future is still blurred, but the hope is for a peaceful solution that benefits all involved.   Sources: THX News, Institute for the Study of Human Rights, Wikipedia & Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office. Read the full article

[talesfromtheshatterhome]

"Take A Stand"

Ukraine has been struggling against Russia since it won its independence in 1991 at the fall of the Soviet Union. The people largely value their independence and freedom. Putin has been pressuring and jabbing at Ukraine since the early 2010's and this is not the first hostile military invasion he has launched against the people of Ukraine. This most recent invasion is under the false pretense that they are liberating people from a fascist regime. The information Putin is peddling to his people is that they are preforming military exercises. Protestors are being arrested and imprisoned without trial, anyone in Russia reporting information on the war are being jailed for a minimum of 15 years for 'fake news'. Putin is lying to his people to invade a foreign nation. Ukraine is under attack. Russia is committing war crimes actively by attacking civilians and civilian centers. Putin's threats to the rest of the world not to intervene are the rantings of a madman. He is a bully. And we can not tolerate these actions.

Sorry to get political but this affects us all.

The picture we took shows Cherno Alpha the Jaeger from Pacific Rim standing up to the menacing visage of a giant version of itself. The smaller Cherno represents the Ukrainian people and the Russian Troops who have surrendered and defected upon learning the true purpose of their invasion. The larger represents the Massive might of Russia and the threat it poses to the world at large, starting with Ukraine. Bullies will only grow bolder and more violent if no one stands up to them or stops them. To this end we must all dig deep and Take A Stand Together.

This is the only artistic medium we are good at so sorry if the toys seem dumb. But we are passionate about whats happening out there in the world.

#FuckPutin #StandWithUkraine

#TalesFromTheShatterhome #Russia #Godzilla #Gamera #Ultraman #PacificRim #ChernoAlpha #ToyPhotography #FigurePhotography #TMToypics

[powdermelonkeg]

I just had to block somebody that I’m half convinced was one of those Russian accounts that slipped through the cracks back in the earlier Tumblr wave (@/tinetinetinetinetine btw, if you want to block them), for commenting anti-Ukraine bs on one of my reblogs. So, uh, lemme be clear.

I stand with Ukraine. I stand with Ukrainian freedom. I stand with the Russian protestors that are trying to stop this war. I am wholly against the Russian government’s renewed takeover attempts.

Hope that clears this up. What the actual fuck.

[qqueenofhades]

I do so wish people talked less about the EU not being strict enough and more about how they spent years acting all arrogant only to let themselves be so dependant on our resources. Why weren't alternatives found earlier? Why are they only now realising that oops turns out that condemning dictatorships while paying for their gas is actually not that smart after all? Why hand out citizenship left and right to our far-right dirtbags? Why did London spend decades hoarding all our dirty money only to now turn all Pikachu meme while "exposing" our corrupt oligarchs? The West should spend less time condemning our corruption and more thinking about their own. They enabled it. That said, watching our TV elite have public meltdowns over their lost wealth, exposing their hypocrisy, has been quite entertaining.

Another uncomfortable truth is that literally nothing the EU could do can stop this raging moron. Not even pressuring the closest to him would have an impact anymore, he's completely lost it. In this country change only ever happens in one way, and I'm afraid with all these sanctions it's exactly where we are heading. This is about to get really ugly for everyone here.

WELP. This is indeed what I was just talking about in my last post: the West's extensive complicity in enabling systems of corrupt hyper-capitalism, where any money from any source was good, no questions were asked, destabilizing propaganda was embraced as long as it served the powerful elite, and Putin's previous invasions in 2008 and 2014 were essentially met with a shrug and a slap on the wrist, because nobody wanted to upset the apple cart of sweet, sweet Russian black cash. The love of money is the root of all evil, etc etc. And yes, the UK trying to act as if they were leading the charge, while imposing absolutely pathetic initial sanctions and still not having a systemic plan at all to clean up Londongrad, was... something. Nor have the Tories actually pledged to give back all the Russian cash they were donated, not that I would believe them if they did.

Anyway, this is why I have been so determinedly reblogging articles and petitions and other information about Russian anti-war protestors, because a) you and everyone else speaking out against it are brave in a way that I really don't think westerners entirely grasp, and b) it is important, over and over, to emphasize that Putin does NOT speak for the Russian people, they are mad as hell despite the extensive and demonstrable consequences they will experience for saying so, and their only reward for it, if they haven't already been arrested, is that they're going to suffer a whole lot of pain when sanctions kick in. Earlier today, I saw pictures of the mile-long lines of people at ATMs in Moscow at 5am, trying to withdraw their money before the markets open on Monday and the ruble absolutely craters. Of course, Putin is going to take this as a mark of pride and/or do some more nuclear saber-rattling, and it's just a terrible situation for everyone.

I have likewise said many times that for someone bent on recreating the glory days of the Russian Empire and the USSR, Putin is oddly amnesiac about how BOTH of those ended. In the 1917 case, it was... hmm... yeah. And in 1991, the communist hardliners tried the same thing against Gorbachev and were only narrowly foiled (and if I recall, there was a similar attempt in 1993 against Yeltsin). Somehow Putin thinks this won't happen to him, while he's enraged the entire world AND his own people against him. It seems astonishing that in the year 2022, one single madman can cause this much pain for everyone, and yet. Here we are.

Please know that I am thinking about you and all the other Russians who are going to suffer the blowback in any number of ways, and I hope you keep finding the strength to stand up. I wish this wasn't such a clusterfuck, I wish you and everyone else in Russia trying to do the right thing weren't going to suffer so much for the Madness of King Vlad, and hope like hell that somehow this resolves without destroying your entire country. As I said earlier to the other anon stuck in Moscow, please check in and let me know you're safe when you can. I am but a random netizen, but I do really care.

Hugs.

[somethingusefulfromflorida]

13 Keys to the White House: UPDATE

The original post can be read here, I wrote it a day before George Floyd was murdered, and the political landscape has shifted SO MUCH since then.

There are 13 questions that define which party will win the presidential election based on how well the incumbent and challenging parties have fared over the last four years.  The incumbent party needs 8 out of 13 to be true to win, while the challengers need 6 or more to be false.  As of May 25, it stood, in order of severity

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

Almost certainly false

Probably false

Maybe false

Unclear

Maybe

Maybe true

True as of right now

TRUE

TRUE

TRUE

Biden and Trump both has 3 solid keys in their field, with three more teetering on either side, and one tossup in the middle.  It was anybody’s game, though Biden had a slight edge because he only needs 6 to Trump’s 8.

Not everything has changed in the last week, but just enough to solidify some of the less certain keys

Party Mandate:  After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.  FALSE (Democrats won more in 2018 than Republicans won in 2014)

Contest:  There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. TRUE (Donald Trump faces no real challengers)

Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.  TRUE (barring the coronavirus, or a heart attack brought on by all the fast food he eats, Donald Trump will be the nominee this November)

Third party:  There is no significant third party or independent campaign. TRUE (Amash has dropped out, and the Libertarians have nominated a nobody who chose an even smaller nobody as her running mate.  But then again, the election is 5 months away, which in 2020-months is approximately 9000 years away; a lot can change between now and then.  I mean, just 5 months ago the coronavirus hadn’t spread outside of China yet.  Maybe a conservative spoiler will gain traction.  Maybe some disillusioned republicans will rally behind a write-in candidate.  Maybe an asteroid hits and we all have to move underground and evolve into C.H.U.D.s to survive.  Anything goes in 2020.  Blow on them dice, LUCK BE A LADY)

Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.  FALSE (The Great Shutdown, the second once-in-a-lifetime economic collapse in less than 15 years. We’re only four months into it right now; things are going to get so much worse before they get better.)

Long-term economy:  Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.  Almost Certainly False (Unemployment continues to rise at record breaking levels. Civil unrest is widespread in all 50 states, several territories, and even international cities in solidarity with the cause.  The pandemic is far from over, and we are on the verge of a second wave..  There’s no chance in hell the economy will grow this year.  2020 is the Spiders Georg of years; it is a statistical outlier, it’s so low it’ll bring down the rest of the whole term, wiping out all growth since 2017.  I mean, Republicans wanted trump to run the country like one of his businesses, and he’s giving them exactly what they wanted.  This is his MO; run it into the ground, declare bankruptcy, don’t pay anyone, move onto your next failed project.  Same shit as always)

Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.Unclear  (He hasn’t kept many of his campaign promies, but he has enriched himself and his colleagues, abusing the power of the executive for personal gain, which is a pretty major change.  This key will come down to the Supreme Court decisions on his tax returns; if they decide in favor of the president, they are saying that he doesn’t have to obey subpoenas anymore, expanding the powers of the president and getting rid of legislative oversight, checks and balances; this would be a HUGE policy change akin to declaring him a king, as it would mean he is no long capable of being held accountable for anything.  If they decide against him though, a lot of skeletons will come bursting out of his closet, which may or may not damage him politically.  Let’s be honest, they won’t.   Nothing ever does.  The tax returns could reveal that he has been paying a Russian company called “WE MEDDLE, YOU WIN, GUARANTEE” for thirty years, and he and his cronies will still spin it as a positive thing.  Nothing ever hurts this guy, so I wonder why he even gives a shit about hiding his taxes anymore.  All we know is that he has to be hiding something BIG if he’s going this far to try and cover it up,  Could this take him down?  Probably not, but fingers crossed.)

Social unrest:  There is no sustained social unrest during the term.  FALSE  (I made this post before the George Floyd protests began, but there’s no ambiguity about it now.   The cracks in the system have been expanding for years, and now the dam has finally burst.  And rightfully so; riots are the language of the unheard.  My only concerns are that if the protests continue into November, a bunch of republican lawmakers are gonna use it as an excuse to stop people from voting. ”Curfew begins at 8PM, anyone still in line at their polling places will be arrested and/or shot”)

Scandal:  The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.  FALSE (there’s only so much you an handle before you drop all pretenses and say “this is no longer subjective, this is objectively scandalous.”  Everything they do is designed to get as big a reaction as possible, they pick the objectively worst people and take the objectively worst positions on everything because they’re trying to stoke controversy.  Russia, Ukraine, carrots and potatoes.  The real meat are all the domestic scandal.  Turning off the White House lights and hunkering in a safe space underneath it like  PUNK ASS BITCH?  Mobilizing the National Guard around the country?  Teargassing protestors so he can pose with a Bible he’s never read in front of a church he’s never attended, holding it up like it’s some annoying obligation of his, “see? See, I like the Bible. Look, I’m holding it up.  Why would I be holding it up if I didn’t just LOOOOOVE it?  Can everybody see?  I’m holding it out at arms length and waving it back and forth just to make sure all the cameras know, I want then to get a good shot of it. I will shortly give it to an aide and be taken home in my limo, at which point I will forget the Bible exists because my brain is turning to jelly and I’ve lost the concept of object permanence.”)

Foreign/military failure:  The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. Maybe (on the one hand, Iran didn’t retaliate when we killed their general, but on the other hand we retreated out of Syria, let thousands of ISIS fighters go, and aided the Turks in a Kurdish genocide.  The tit-for-tat sanctions against China threatened to crash the global economy, but then the coronavirus came in and did that all by itself, so it’s unclear whether we’ve “failed” or simply “not succeeded.”)

Foreign/military success:  The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. Maybe false? (for the same reason as above, it is hard to judge what is or isn’t a success.  USMCA is unpopular and small potatoes.  The North Korean talks are all show with no substance; Kim will never get rid of his nukes.   We’re still caught up in W’s endless wars, and I don’t see an end in sight, so I’d say this is definitely not a success. I have no doubt in my mind the October Surprise is gonna be another bombing in Iran to kill the ayatollah. The Iran War will start on November 3, same day as the election, there will be the first draft since Vietnam, a bunch of POCs will be forced into the military as cannon fodder; it’ll be a bloodbath for both sides)

Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.  FALSE (Trump is revered as the Second Coming of Christ by his base, but they make up less than 40% of the total country; other Republicans tolerate him at best, and all Democrats hate him. He has never had majority approval, he will never go down with the likes of the universally beloved Washington, Lincoln, and the Roosevelts.  The most surprising thing of the last six months has got to be the emergence of the Lincoln Project, a coalition of Republicans who have finally grown spines, guts, and balls to stand up against trump and actively campaign against him.  He doesn’t have total party control anymore, the Republicans are eroding, though to be fair the Democrats eroded a long time ago; the Republicans are a crumbling cairn, longstanding but now weakened and in danger of falling over, while the Democrats are a nice gravel walkway that everyone steps on and complains about even though the walkway is a nice addition to the park; it really ties the negative space together, linking the tennis courts with the pull-up bars.  I’ve lost the thread of this analogy)

Challenger charisma:  The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.  TRUE (Joe Biden is the Walter Mondale of Al Gores.  Republicans hate him,  even though he’s a moderate an would almost certainly try to reach across the aisle to compromise with them.  Which is exactly why about half of Democrats don’t really like him; he’s too moderate and would work with Republicans.  He’s old and senile, he keeps making gaffe after gaffe after gaffe, and doesn’t seem to know how the game is played anymore.  Someone needs to find Grampa a nice home so he can retire and talk to his nurse about how he used to get into fist fights with ne’er-do-wells, “buncha malarkey, I tell ya”)

This gives us, from best to worst:

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

FALSE

Almost Certainly False

Maybe false

unclear

Maybe

TRUE

TRUE

TRUE

TRUE

Incumbent Trumps needs 8 true to win.  Challenger Biden needs 6 false to win.

Biden definitely has 5, he only needs 1 more to claim it, and there are two good keys that are leaning heavily in his favor; trump’s long-term economy is in the tank, and he hasn’t had any victories overseas.  Biden has this one in the bag [don’t grow complacent, there’s still plenty of fuckery to be had from here to November]

Trumps would need to flip four keys to win, only one of which leans in his favor, one is unclear, and two are in Biden’s court.  The economy is in ruins, he hasn’t set up any real domestic Trump Doctrine, and the military has neither succeeded nor failed in any meaningful way these last four years.  He’s going into November with a major disadvantage, perhaps the only time in his life he has ever not had an advantage.

But then again, there’s always the possibility that it could be a 2000/2016 repeat, where Biden wins the popular vote but Trump ekes by with the electoral college victory yet again.  This model doesn’t take that into account because the popular vote winner almost always wins the EC too.

Trump is not more popular today than he was 4 years ago.  He’s never had majority approval.  While his base loves him more now than ever, they represent a minority of voters, and pretty much everyone else hates him.  Anyone who was on the fence in 2016 is definitively over the fence in 2020.  If he “wins,” it’s not going to be a 1972/1984 blowout, that’s just not gonna happen, too many states hate him too much.  It will be very close; I will not rule out the possibility of a 269-269 tie in the electoral college, triggering a contingent election where the House of Representatives has to pick the president.  Democrats have a majority in the House right now, but in contingent elections they don’t vote as 435 individuals, they vote as 50 state blocs; even though there are more Democrats than Republicans, they’re packed together into as few states as possible, giving Republicans over 26 stateside majorities, enough to ensure they would pick Trump in a contingent election.

It’s a bullshit system, and I pray it doesn’t come to that.

[queernuck]

What People Do You Hear Sing: American Hegemony and Orientalist Ideology in Leftist Discussions of Hong Kong

the way in which discussions of the MCU in relation to China have often been a means of excusing Marvel and Disney from their own decisions and instead pushing questions of taste, aesthetics, and the role of the blockbuster in American cinema and global cinema more widely as part of the American cultural war machine and global patterns of consumption-production is being brought to a head by comparatively petty bickering between Disney and Sony. and, of course when we discuss consumption of media, the notion of China as a market, as a nation, the way in which China and the US interact with one another is something that comes up. it is an especially pertinent discussion at this moment, when ideation of the Orientalist “other” is on the tips of many politicians’ tongues, the discussion of Trump’s comments on Xi Jinping (and their likening to his remarks on Kim Jong Un) and how discourses about Hong Kong are impacted by this, the way that the trade war with China and apparent fears of a recession are part of a wider array of discussions about how exactly import and export as processes of exchange, ideologies of transferrence and the libidinal flows involved lead to the kind of ideology seen in Western analysis of Hong Kong’s protests

first, a discussion worth mentioning is how attempts at assessing US Hegemony can lead one can enter into a kind of simple (but common) anti-imperialist analysis, offering that in a case of imperialist aggression, one cannot help but root for the defeat of one’s own nation. this proves true in places like Iraq and Afghanistan, entirely without offering support for fundamentalist violence, something that absolutely must not be confused. the way in which this manifests as celebrating events as US defeats rather than celebrating them as victories can then, perhaps, be applied to various supposed anti-imperialist oppositions: China impacting American hegemony through economic actions, Russia weakening American neoliberal hegemony through military action and favoring the Syrian state as a means of opposing ISIS as well as opposing US-backed or US-allied hegemony in nations like Ukraine, a kind of celebration of these as courses of opposition rather than in-themselves is something that is commonly criticized as a remnant or as a “tankie” position, rather than recognized as at least a potential means of celebrating US hegemony as becoming more unsustainable, requiring even more intense flows of libidinal investment, turning against itself as it attempts to transform itself for the many forever-wars it continually finds itself fighting, the transition to recognizing that these are not wars, but are rather colonial occupations, fronts to which young generals and soldiers are sent to be forged in the same tradition as other colonial troops.

The example of leftists who offered some excitement over the election of Duterte in the Philippines due to his nominal anti-US stance despite his own reactionary ideology, the means by which he openly compares his own anti-drug death squads to those of the Nazis, is a feeling that was shared by Philippine Maoists hoping for at least some loosening of American hegemony in the Philippines, despite firmly and resolutely standing against the government regardless of the head of state, despite abandoning negotiations with Duterte’s government rather soon after said negotiations had begun. The relationship between China, the US, and the Philippines involves a great deal of passing-on of settler-colonial ideologies and neocolonial control, is complex, is one where the reprehensible actions of Duterte can be understood as desired by Maoist rebels not as an end in itself, but rather as a means of improving their ability to maneuver against a wider regime that is overall sympathetic to power, to hegemony, that is more than willing to subject the Filipino People to colonial occupation and how their struggle against colonialism is one that they wage regardless of the actual head of government. A defense of Duterte based on his own policies would be outright justification of genocide, and an understanding of how openly his politics were based around using the drug war as a kind of amplification of the drug war waged by the US, as an open excuse for the creation of death squads rather than a somewhat more subtle one as seen in the US and the policies it has endorsed in the name of the War on Drugs and how many have died, have had their lives ruined, how the police has been militarized in response to the escalation of this war and how colonial occupation has been ongoing in black communities, communities of color, how the way in which crack was only a problem for the government when it could be used to kill in communities of color, how opiates have been used to  

The notion that any singular analysis has a monopoly on correct methodologies of analysis in any category is a rejection of the principles behind even the most materialist, scientific implementations of Maoist thought, of Marxist-Leninist discussion, of exactly what the “material” constitutes and how to divide that from the immaterial, the ideological, through a kind of anti-metaphysics of political maneuver. Furthermore, when founded on opposition to an action or policy rather than out of a singular and united action, one finds that a protest transforms into a hyperobject, one wide-ranging in participation and ideological goals, akin to the variance of ideology in assemblies during Occupy Wall Street or found in the protests of the Yellow Vests. Ignoring successes and fetishizing failures, or for that matter creating fantasies out of success and pretending that failure was never found is to condense and ignore the means by which protest occurs in a neoliberal age, the means by which solidarity becomes extended, how messages are received and understood in relation to settler-colonialism and Orientalist understandings of what a protest outside the West constitutes: the way in which Hong Kong now, Euromaidan then, the many ways in which Yankee understandings of leftist movements of numerous tendencies are often based in considering the constituents of such a movement as an unreadable and blank Orientalist “Other”, and how easy it is for reactionary or anticommunist sentiment from liberals to creep into any reading of an action or organization results in a kind of meta-movement within the larger hyperobject of that protest, in the way that the Yellow Vests in Canada constitute a fellow-traveler to numerous fascist movements, how American support for Ukraine has constituted support for the most fascist elements of any movement, and meanwhile as Horvat and Žižek have discussed, the defense of statues of Lenin has been not out of a genuine communist sentiment, but rather out of Lenin as a symbol of Russian identity.

Here, the importance of ideation and ideology in relation to action becomes most clear, in that symbols and actions-as-emblematic lead to certain currents flowing through protests, as the Yellow Vest became a symbol of working class identity and the way in which a diesel tax would disproportionately impact the working class, how the ideological structure of certain actions in Hong Kong designed as attempts to draw international solidarity have become resignified as evidence for reactionary positions (ones which may or more likely may not be held by the protestors themselves, or if so are only being used as a kind of vulgar proxy for other positions) and the way in which aspiration, hope, and attempts at offering a position becomes something just as powerful in reversal and perhaps more vicious. The way in which “Blue Lives Matter” as a direct reversal of the Black Lives Matter movement has become a white supremacist slogan, how support for police has been specifically founded on antiblackness and is most primarily realized as support for antiblack and anti-antifascist actions on the part of police is one example of such a resignification. The way that symbols of supposedly innocuous nature that display a neutral support for agents of state control (control by a justifiable and supportable state, that is) rather than a willingness to at least ignore, and perhaps collaborate directly with, white supremacists is a vital part of understanding exactly how the currency of fascist fantasies adds up. 

Effectively, the means by which one encounters the notion of protest, a kind of removed image of protest, and then understands it will be shaped by the neoliberal structure of the apparatuses of capture and distribution, the producing-production space of content within the Virtual, the sublimation of protest and counterprotest into the Virtual. This is why the avoidance of Riot Porn as a serious politics is necessary, why idle fantasizing about Red Armies and Gulags becomes a kind of ghastly exercise in Marxist-Leninist-Reactionist thought, how the way in which the sublimation of identity politics means that there is no longer a singular “voice” as neoliberalism would like one to believe, but rather that discussions and analysis of what must be supported become the primary point of navigation. 

The importance of understanding postmodern fields of war, the war machines of neocolonialism and the way in which capitalist development in relation to socialist projects as well as anarchist ones involves a great deal of sublimation, violence, exploitation that is focused against revolutionary critique and toward a new anticommunism means that support and solidarity must be offered as part of genuine engagement with not only an idealized version of a protest but the hyperobject of neoliberal interpretation and re-interpretation, idealization of protest as concept and action makes it such that a unified push toward any goal will invite a great deal of reactionary hangers-on, ones which may be counted among allies in a superficial sense, but will inevitably turn when given the opportunity.

To again address Hong Kong, China, to offer the question of exactly what one can hope that protests in Hong Kong will achieve, an outcome which results in full self-determination for Hong Kong, one which fosters a movement that sees it separated from the PRC, will result in, at best, the formation of a state with enormous income inequality, where the movement in question has been opposed or at least viewed with some disdain by capitalists within Hong Kong, and most of all a state which is likely to collaborate or ally closely with American and British interests, even against the will of the people of Hong Kong. Western support for protests in Hong Kong has at many points come from the right, from American republicans who are unwilling to even begin critiquing the PLA and Chinese politics on a grounds of genuine liberation, but rather care about posturing in order to win a trade war and taking Hong Kong protestors as anti-socialist and moreover “pro-democracy” in a way that meaningfully equates to support for American hegemony. Even if the protests in question are ones against Beijing both in concept and in action, to assume that all protestors are reactionary, are themselves asking that the income inequality, the failure to address the legacy of colonial dominance that was retained when the British handed over Hong Kong and how that has been reflected within Hong Kong as a kind of neocolonial violence, the way that protestors have been developing admirable new technologies and weapons of state resistance, ones which protestors the world over would do well to note regardless of their particular affiliations, and even their adoption of Pepe as a symbol not of fascist libidinal flows but of liberation and the resignification of hegemony can be considered worthwhile victories. However, that there have been protestors who have waved American flags and as a result have been fetishized by Western “supporters” that likely hope for more and more brutal crackdowns, that look to use these protests as a cynical vector of American power and interest (regardless of the presence (or lack) of any Western involvement in directing protests) flows into how Americans look at actions in Venezuela, Cuba, the DPRK, and even internally and look to reinterpret them as pushing a kind of “democratic” hegemony which privileges landlords, the bourgeoisie, interests of maintaining a self-same hegemony. 

When Laclau & Mouffe offer the model of Radical Democracy, they emphasize that hegemony as a force is built not from some intractable evil, or capitalist ideology, but is simply a means of describing dominance of power. The potential for radical democratic organizing through post-Marxist means in Hong Kong is certainly great, is certainly an opportunity which should be supported specifically because addressing the incredible disparities of capitalist violence in Hong Kong, highlighting the failures of the PRC (regardless of its merits or lack thereof) and most of all understanding that this lack of understanding is due largely to how discussions are contained within hegemonic, capitalist apparatuses of capture, how most sources will be in one way or another reactionary, how the loudest sources are ones that support Hong Kong out of cynicism and imperialist aspiration such as The Economist, the way in which dominance of a Western and at the end Orientalist critique in both support and detraction pervades other discourses must be acknowledged. The moment of spontaneous collaboration, using an assembled knowledge of a rather famous musical about rebellion and liberation seen in the singing of “Do You Hear The People Sing” by a group of protestors must be acknowledged as a moment in which the aesthetics of protest become interpreted and re-interpreted infinitely by apparatuses of capture that have a definite influence from American cultural hegemony. When companies like Disney create the pop culture of the world, when artists and writers from America or American allies are the dictators of the pop-cultural norms of numerous nations, when American films outgross even the totality of Indian films (despite India producing an order of magnitude more features in a given year) the role of these articulations and rearticulations, the means by which a kind of simulacra of a neat, clean, and singular entity of critique is exchanged within hyperreal spaces of consideration, the role of American hegemony in dictating even how it can be opposed, questioned, and what sorts of opposition are acceptable becomes somewhat clear. Certainly, there is an “external” to this structure, but exactly how much one can look for a true “externality” to the structure from within it, while using platforms dominated by American ideology is questionable.

[brookstonalmanac]

Events 5.15

495 BC – A newly constructed temple in honour of the god Mercury was dedicated in ancient Rome on the Circus Maximus, between the Aventine and Palatine hills. To spite the senate and the consuls, the people awarded the dedication to a senior military officer, Marcus Laetorius. 221 – Liu Bei, Chinese warlord, proclaims himself emperor of Shu Han, the successor of the Han dynasty. 392 – Emperor Valentinian II is assassinated while advancing into Gaul against the Frankish usurper Arbogast. He is found hanging in his residence at Vienne. 589 – King Authari marries Theodelinda, daughter of the Bavarian duke Garibald I. A Catholic, she has great influence among the Lombard nobility. 908 – The three-year-old Constantine VII, the son of Emperor Leo VI the Wise, is crowned as co-emperor of the Byzantine Empire by Patriarch Euthymius I at Constantinople. 1252 – Pope Innocent IV issues the papal bull ad extirpanda, which authorizes, but also limits, the torture of heretics in the Medieval Inquisition. 1525 – Insurgent peasants led by Anabaptist pastor Thomas Müntzer were defeated at the Battle of Frankenhausen, ending the German Peasants' War in the Holy Roman Empire. 1536 – Anne Boleyn, Queen of England, stands trial in London on charges of treason, adultery and incest; she is condemned to death by a specially-selected jury. 1567 – Mary, Queen of Scots marries James Hepburn, 4th Earl of Bothwell, her third husband. 1618 – Johannes Kepler confirms his previously rejected discovery of the third law of planetary motion (he first discovered it on March 8 but soon rejected the idea after some initial calculations were made). 1648 – The Treaty of Westphalia is signed. 1718 – James Puckle, a London lawyer, patents the world's first machine gun. 1730 – Robert Walpole effectively became the first Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. 1776 – American Revolution: The Fifth Virginia Convention instructs its Continental Congress delegation to propose a resolution of independence from Great Britain, paving the way for the United States Declaration of Independence. 1791 – French Revolution: Maximilien Robespierre proposes the Self-denying Ordinance. 1792 – War of the First Coalition: France declares war on Kingdom of Sardinia. 1793 – Diego Marín Aguilera flies a glider for "about 360 meters", at a height of 5–6 meters, during one of the first attempted manned flights. 1796 – War of the First Coalition: Napoleon enters Milan in triumph. 1800 – King George III of the United Kingdom survives an assassination attempt by James Hadfield, who is later acquitted by reason of insanity. 1817 – Opening of the first private mental health hospital in the United States, the Asylum for the Relief of Persons Deprived of the Use of Their Reason (now Friends Hospital, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania). 1836 – Francis Baily observes "Baily's beads" during an annular eclipse. 1848 – Serfdom is abolished in the Habsburg Galicia, as a result of the 1848 revolutions. The rest of monarchy followed later in the year. 1849 – Troops of the Two Sicilies take Palermo and crush the republican government of Sicily. 1850 – The Bloody Island massacre takes place in Lake County, California, in which a large number of Pomo Indians are slaughtered by a regiment of the United States Cavalry. 1850 – The Arana–Southern Treaty is ratified, ending "the existing differences" between Great Britain and Argentina. 1851 – The first Australian gold rush is proclaimed, although the discovery had been made three months earlier. 1858 – Opening of the present Royal Opera House in Covent Garden, London. 1862 – President Abraham Lincoln signs a bill into law creating the United States Bureau of Agriculture. It is later renamed the United States Department of Agriculture. 1864 – American Civil War: Battle of New Market, Virginia: Students from the Virginia Military Institute fight alongside the Confederate army to force Union General Franz Sigel out of the Shenandoah Valley. 1867 – Canadian Bank of Commerce opens for business in Toronto, Ontario. The bank would later merge with Imperial Bank of Canada to become what is CIBC in 1961. 1869 – Women's suffrage: In New York, Susan B. Anthony and Elizabeth Cady Stanton form the National Woman Suffrage Association. 1891 – Pope Leo XIII defends workers' rights and property rights in the encyclical Rerum novarum, the beginning of modern Catholic social teaching. 1904 – Russo-Japanese War: The Russian minelayer Amur lays a minefield about 15 miles off Port Arthur and sinks Japan's battleships Hatsuse, 15,000 tons, with 496 crew and Yashima. 1905 – Las Vegas is founded when 110 acres (0.45 km2), in what later would become downtown, are auctioned off. 1911 – In Standard Oil Co. of New Jersey v. United States, the United States Supreme Court declares Standard Oil to be an "unreasonable" monopoly under the Sherman Antitrust Act and orders the company to be broken up. 1911 – More than 300 Chinese immigrants are killed in the Torreón massacre when the forces of the Mexican Revolution led by Emilio Madero take the city of Torreón from the Federales. 1919 – The Winnipeg general strike begins. By 11:00, almost the whole working population of Winnipeg had walked off the job. 1919 – Greek occupation of Smyrna. During the occupation, the Greek army kills or wounds 350 Turks; those responsible are punished by Greek commander Aristides Stergiades. 1925 – Al-Insaniyyah, the first Arabic communist newspaper, is founded. 1928 – Walt Disney character Mickey Mouse premieres in his first cartoon, "Plane Crazy". 1929 – A fire at the Cleveland Clinic in Cleveland, Ohio kills 123. 1932 – In an attempted coup d'état, the Prime Minister of Japan Inukai Tsuyoshi is assassinated. 1933 – All military aviation organizations within or under the control of the RLM of Germany were officially merged in a covert manner to form its Wehrmacht military's air arm, the Luftwaffe. 1934 – Kārlis Ulmanis establishes an authoritarian government in Latvia. 1940 – USS Sailfish is recommissioned. It was originally the USS Squalus. 1940 – World War II: After fierce fighting, the poorly trained and equipped Dutch troops surrender to Germany, marking the beginning of five years of occupation. 1940 – McDonald's opens its first restaurant in San Bernardino, California. 1941 – First flight of the Gloster E.28/39 the first British and Allied jet aircraft. 1941 – Joe DiMaggio begins a 56-game hitting streak. 1942 – World War II: In the United States, a bill creating the Women's Army Auxiliary Corps (WAAC) is signed into law. 1943 – Joseph Stalin dissolves the Comintern (or Third International). 1945 – World War II: The Battle of Poljana, the final skirmish in Europe is fought near Prevalje, Slovenia. 1948 – Following the expiration of The British Mandate for Palestine, the Kingdom of Egypt, Transjordan, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Saudi Arabia invade Israel thus starting the 1948 Arab–Israeli War. 1957 – At Malden Island in the Pacific Ocean, Britain tests its first hydrogen bomb in Operation Grapple. 1958 – The Soviet Union launches Sputnik 3. 1960 – The Soviet Union launches Sputnik 4. 1963 – Project Mercury: The launch of the final Mercury mission, Mercury-Atlas 9 with astronaut Gordon Cooper on board. He becomes the first American to spend more than a day in space, and the last American to go into space alone. 1966 – After a policy dispute, Prime Minister Nguyễn Cao Kỳ of South Vietnam's ruling junta launches a military attack on the forces of General Tôn Thất Đính, forcing him to abandon his command. 1969 – People's Park: California Governor Ronald Reagan has an impromptu student park owned by the University of California at Berkeley fenced off from student anti-war protestors, sparking a riot. 1970 – President Richard Nixon appoints Anna Mae Hays and Elizabeth P. Hoisington the first female United States Army generals. 1970 – Philip Lafayette Gibbs and James Earl Green are killed at Jackson State University by police during student protests. 1972 – The Ryukyu Islands, under U.S. military governance since its conquest in 1945, reverts to Japanese control. 1972 – In Laurel, Maryland, Arthur Bremer shoots and paralyzes Alabama Governor George Wallace while he is campaigning to become President. 1974 – Ma'alot massacre: Members of the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine attack and take hostages at an Israeli school; a total of 31 people are killed, including 22 schoolchildren. 1976 – Aeroflot Flight 1802 crashes in Viktorovka, Chernihiv Raion, killing all 52 people on board. 1987 – The Soviet Union launches the Polyus prototype orbital weapons platform. It fails to reach orbit. 1988 – Soviet–Afghan War: After more than eight years of fighting, the Soviet Army begins to withdraw 115,000 troops from Afghanistan. 1991 – Édith Cresson becomes France's first female premier. 1997 – The United States government acknowledges the existence of the "Secret War" in Laos and dedicates the Laos Memorial in honor of Hmong and other "Secret War" veterans. 2004 – Arsenal F.C. go an entire league campaign unbeaten in the English Premier League, joining Preston North End F.C with the right to claim the title The Invincibles 2008 – California becomes the second U.S. state after Massachusetts in 2004 to legalize same-sex marriage after the state's own Supreme Court rules a previous ban unconstitutional. 2010 – Jessica Watson becomes the youngest person to sail, non-stop and unassisted around the world solo. 2013 – An upsurge in violence in Iraq leaves more than 389 people dead over three days.

[gozel]

Not sure if he is strictly "bourgeois" or if Belarus is strictly "capitalist" but this is good

From a comrade:

'You don't even have to like Lukashenko (who is a capitalist) to oppose these Western campaigns to overthrow his government. Lukashenko is bourgeois but he represents the independent national bourgeoisie which stands against imperialist enslavement of Belarus. It doesn't matter who is leading a country; communists should always oppose imperialism wherever it rears its ugly head. Comrade Stalin in "Foundations of Leninism" noted that the feudal king of Afghanistan was playing a progressive role in defending his country from British imperialism. Whatever a country's own system is, wrapping the chains of imperialism around that country is not a solution to anything. And make no mistake, that's exactly what these "protests" are. Those "protestors" are puppets of US/EU imperialism which seeks to reduce Belarus to a colony of Western monopoly capital and bring it into their anti-Russian "alliance" (of masters and puppets). Not only would this be a catastrophe for the people of Belarus, but it would dramatically increase the risk of World War III. The stormtroopers of NATO have been getting closer and closer to Russia's borders. A line needs to be drawn in the sand.'

Kesinlikle "burjuva" mı yoksa Beyaz Rusya kesinlikle "kapitalist" mi emin değilim ama bu iyi Bir yoldaştan: "Kapitalist olan Lukashenko'nun hükümetini devirmek için bu Batılı kampanyalara karşı çıkmasını sevmenize bile gerek yok. Lukashenko burjuva ama Belarus'un emperyalist köleleştirilmesine karşı duran bağımsız ulusal burjuvaziyi temsil ediyor. Bir ülkeyi kimin yönettiği önemli değil; komünistler, çirkin yüzünü gösterdiği her yerde emperyalizme her zaman karşı çıkmalıdır. "Leninizmin Temelleri" nde Stalin yoldaş, Afganistan'ın feodal kralının ülkesini İngiliz emperyalizmine karşı savunmada ilerici bir rol oynadığını kaydetti. Bir ülkenin kendi sistemi ne olursa olsun, emperyalizmin zincirlerini o ülkenin etrafına sarmak hiçbir şeye çözüm değildir. Ve hata yapmayın, bu "protestolar" da tam olarak budur. Bu "protestocular", Beyaz Rusya'yı Batı tekelci başkentinin bir kolonisine indirgemek ve onu Rus karşıtı "ittifak" a (efendiler ve kuklalar) sokmak isteyen ABD / AB emperyalizminin kuklalarıdır. Bu sadece Belarus halkı için bir felaket olmayacak, aynı zamanda III.Dünya Savaşı riskini de önemli ölçüde artıracaktır. NATO’nun fırtına askerleri Rusya’nın sınırlarına gittikçe yaklaşıyor. Kumda bir çizgi çekilmesi gerekiyor. '

[incredibletinyhouse]

Confusion reigns after Pussy Riot co-founder detained in Moscow – Pyotr Verzilov says he was questioned over 2019 protests

Pyotr Verzilov, a controversial Russian shock artist and co-founder of ‘punk’ art collectives Pussy Riot and Voina along with ex-wife Nadezhda Tolokonnikova, says police have questioned him over last year’s Moscow protests.

The activist was detained at a rented apartment in the Russian capital on Sunday. Between two and 10 people forced their way into the flat and Verzilov “disappeared” afterwards, according to MediaZona – an alternative media outlet created as a spin off from Pussy Riot – which cited eyewitnesses. Footage circulating online shows the door of the flat badly damaged in the aftermath of the incident.

Издатель «Медиазоны» и участник группы Pussy Riot Пётр Верзилов не выходит на связь, а дверь в его квартиру выломана. Об этом сообщают представители его издания. По словам очевидцев, ранее они стали свидетелями, как в квартиру Петра «приходили порядка 10 человек и ломали дверь». pic.twitter.com/NKp4HnPeTK

— Директор Кладбища (@directklad) June 21, 2020

Later the same day, Verzilov himself told MediaZona that he was questioned over allegedly using violence against a law enforcement officer last summer, amid unrest.

But human rights advocate Marina Litvinovich told reporters a few hours later that Verzilov was interrogated about the matter as a witness and not as a suspect. She added that the activist was eventually detained after he had already left the police station following initial questioning.

Verzilov was taken into custody after he was allegedly seen swearing in public and involved in a fight with another individual. He told Mediazona he was “attacked” by someone he described as “provocateur.”

Verzilov is best known for his involvement with the self-styled ‘punk band’ Pussy Riot and the ‘art collective’ Voina (The War). The groups are known for staging assorted politically motivated – and sometimes sexually explicit – stunts, repeatedly incurring the wrath of Russian authorities. 

The activist was notably in media spotlight in late 2018, when he was apparently was taken ill in Moscow. His associates, and some American and British press correspondents, were quick to point the finger at the Russian government for “poisoning” him. However, no actual evidence has ever emerged to support the claim.

Assuming Verzilov’s comments to MediaZona are accurate, he’s now the subject of an investigation over events in Moscow in the summer of 2019. Back then, large crowds of opposition supporters took to the streets to voice their anger over several dozen candidates being disqualified from taking part in a city council election.

Some, but by no means all, of the rallies were unauthorised and featured violent scenes involving police and protestors. Organisers accused Moscow police of quelling the protests using heavy handed means. 

Also on rt.com

Poison plot thickens: German doctors cannot define toxin allegedly used against Pussy Riot founder

Verzilov’s arrest sparked a flurry of speculation on social media, and in some Russian news outlets, where reporting accuracy was rather tenuous. 

There were initial suggestions that he had been detained by the police anti-extremism division. MediaZona and several other pro-opposition outlets initially described the incident as a “kidnapping” of the activist.

Britain’s state broadcaster BBC raised plenty of eyebrows when it announced that Verzilov had planned to stand in front of a tank during a rehearsal for this week’s re-scheduled ‘Victory Day parade’ in Moscow. The outlet – which has received tens of millions of pounds from the London government to bulk up its coverage of Russia – told its readers that Verzilov was hoping to emulate the iconic Tiananmen Square ‘tank man’ photo from 1989.

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[grinwolfe]

No. Nothing is going to change Putin's mind at this point, he's dedicated too much of his personal standing to this invasion. I'm no expert but I have my own take from my limited public education and self-education and it's going to be long and messy.

I think it's because of a couple reasons. Historically, there has been consumer backlash against companies that operated and profited doing business with aggressor countries in wartime. Leaving is a PR move for them. A move that frankly, I wish they employed more and not in times of war, but as a bargaining chip in negotiating oppressive governments to treat their citizens/workers fairly. Money is a powerful motivator.

On the other side of things, strategically it might turn the pro-Putin population against Putin if they're losing their creature comforts and seeing their quality of life diminish. If enough of the population is outraged by high cost of living/having assets seized/ruble losing value this could pose a serious security threat to his regime. This is why Putin is using media censorship and possibly deepfakes as damage-control to guide the narrative of fault away from him and his government. I don't think other countries asked the companies to do this as a strategic move, but I don't think they're opposed to it either because it applies socioeconomic pressure instead of physical firepower pressure. Governments are also using the same tactic with refusing russian exports, like oil. Every country placing these sanctions are taking an economic hit but most citizens agree it's worth it.

As for the innocent population of Russia, I won't lie, it's hard. It's hard because this is war and they live in the aggressor country. I love and respect many russian artists and I'm worried for their safety. But not from western pullout or the conflict in Ukraine, but from Putin, who is hunting down dissidents and arresting tens of thousands of anti-war protestors. Not to mention the queer community and many other minorities being oppressed. Many are currently trying to leave Russia through whatever safe avenues there are left for them. The Russian government also has a history of killing anyone who criticizes it, even if they're russian and living in other countries, so feeling bad for ordinary Russians is just being a compassionate human.

The main trouble is, this is war. The scales of fairness change in it's presence; children dying because their emergency shelter was intentionally targeted and bombed is much worse when compared to russians losing tiktok. Putin has basically stated he intends to wipe out a culture and is in the process of doing so, and in an international response his country and citizens suffer economically for those actions. It might sound like the response doesn't match the situation and maybe that's true but we have an aggressive country with a large number of nukes and the specters of WWI and WW2 hangs over everyone else. Pretty much every country other than Russia is on tiptoe, trying to not start a WW3 like how WW1 started or respond in a way that kicked off WW2. In recent times, more governments are more wary about involving themselves in a conflict between two other countries or in civil wars because we've done it enough now to know it makes a huge mess and leaves long lasting repercussions for everyone but mostly for the origin of conflict country/ies. Then there's the added complication of superior invasive technologies, reality bending tech, social media, the internet, satellites, the international space station etc. that I don't think anyone really understands the extent of damage those could cause when used in war. No one really knows what to do, what is possible, and how to prepare for novel warfare.

So western businesses pulling out of a country with strong anti-west rhetoric coming from the national government, are those businesses in the most detached case exercising political caution in an uncertain future and in a more humanizing case, the owers of those companies exercising their moral outrage. And I don't know this for certain but some of the CEO's may have Ukrainian heritage and it would be plain wrong to force those businesses to remain.

You can also read about the social, political and economical landscapes of WW1, WW2 and the Holodomor to get a small sense of just how freaking complicated this current war is and maybe what's motivating all the different powers at play.

Cancelling all sorts of services to Russia isn’t just a lazy, empty corporate gesture but like maliciously punishing innocent people, isn’t it? Millions of Russians have to worry they might be arrested or killed for disagreeing too openly with Putin and I guess we’re gonna ban them and their little kids from app games and shit? Is that the part that’s supposed to make the fascist dictator feel bad and change his mind?

[larktb-archive]

Whenever I go to block a racist I've been seeing a post that claims that revolutions dont work and peaceful protests do.

These are the examples said post uses:

These are all fucking terrible examples to use and I'm gonna go in order of worse to best which isn't saying much.

Women of Liberia Mass Action for Peace

Yes this did in fact end the civil war. But no one denied that peaceful protests can make momentary symbolic changes such as ending a war or gaining a country its independence. This does often happen and you can list off dozens of countries wherein there has been a peaceful response to violence which has seemingly brought about an end to that violence I should know this because after all I come from the best known example of that happening aside from India (and I'll come back to my home country eventually). The problem with saying this is that it ignores the aftermath of the "peace" and whether or not it made enough of a difference in peoples lives for it to matter; even though external visible violence has been quelled, other covert forms of violence stay in place.

Liberia is a good example of this because of one major issue in Liberia: Corruption. Millions of USD are lost every year due to members of the government pocketing the money for themselves to the extent where, according to Transparency International, Liberia is 137 out of 180 and 53% of public service users had paid a bribe within the year of 2019. Interestingly enough the OP of that post calls China and Cuba corrupt despite the fact that Cuba is 60th and China is 80th. But I guess what happens after the revolutions is successful only matters when you're talking about places you dislike.

This corruption has lead to protests in 2019 and 2020, wherein police used tear gas to disperse peaceful protesters. Something to note is the minister of informations accusation of the protests being caused by outside elite forces. Rings a bell but I'm not sure from where.

Now one of the reasons Liberia is so corrupt is because of the lack of punishment against the main actors of the civil war, in spite of the trc listing out 100+ perpetrators and recommending that they be dealt with.

Then president, Ellen Sirleaf Johnson, was on this list and has admitted that she backed the civil war. She went on to win a Nobel Peace Prize.

Jasmine Revolution

Around 79% of people in post revolution Tunisia think the country is "going in the wrong direction", 29% of people would not vote with 48% not knowing who they would vote for, 81% said they don't feel close to a political party, 57% said they aren't interested at all in elections, only 20% believed elections would be free and fair, 45% said they disapprove of the current president, 71% said the government isn't addressing the needs of the youth, 50% of people said the government struggles with preventing political violence and I could go on and on.

But this is only 1 study with a very small sample size so by itself it's not a lot.

But when you compound that with a corruption index of 74, an unemployment rate of 15% (compared to Vietnam and Cubas horrible 3% rate and Chinas 6% rate), ~100,000 skilled workers leaving the country and a slowly increasing number of asylum applicants leads me to think that the data is not unfounded.

Suicide and murder rates also increased after the revolution, with cases of self immolation increasing threefold, such as with the case of Abderrazak Zorgui, who's death sparked protests which turned violent after the police were sent in to quell them.

At least 800 Tunisians went to fight for Isil and that's only counting those who came back from Syria. For comparison 900 returned to Turkey and 760 returned to Saudi Arabia.

Much like Liberia there has not been any justice, with the government instead introducing a law granting amnesty to former members of the dictatorship in Tunisia. A constitutional court was supposed to be set up in 2014 to speed up this process. 6 years on it still hasnt been set up.

Rose Revolution

Now this one is interesting. Georgia has a corruption ranking of 44, its unemployment rate of 11%, although higher than the corrupt, evil nations of Cuba and Vietnam isn't terrible and its Gini Coefficient is 36.4 which is pretty average.

So what's wrong with this one?

Well for starters four years after the Rose Revolution, Georgian protestors once again took to the capital to protest against the increasing amount of power, President Saakashvili, who led the Rose Revolution, was gaining.

To be more specific in 2004, legislation was passed to give him the right to dissolve parliament and in 2006 local elections were manipulated so that the government would dominate local legislatures.

And what's that? The president of Georgia blamed outside Russian influence on the protests and sent in police with tear gas and water cannons? That seems weirdly familiar familiar. Where have I heard that one before.

Here is a quote from a leader of a peaceful revolution after peaceful protests against him took place: "Everyone has the right to express disagreement in a democratic country. But the authorities will never allow destabilisation and chaos".

Interesting how after he was put in power, suddenly peaceful protest is the work of Moscow and needs to be controlled by police. Funny that. But this is totally a successful revolution guys!

And how many protests happened after this one? 3, not including the anti-homophobia protest. I think if you need to protest against the government every few years to the point where people keep calling each new protest, the Rose Revolution 2.0, your 1st revolution wasn't that successful.

Womans Suffrage

But before I talk about the relatively well off post-Soviet nations let's just do a assessment of the absolutely dumb as fuck idea that the Suffragists were more effective than the Suffragetes despite the Suffragists making no progress in the 40 years they existed prior to the branching off of the Suffragettes.

Now some historians do agree that the Suffragettes more violent methods did begin to turn men away from granting womens suffrage during their later years. Less concrete is the idea that this outweighs the net positive they had on the movement for womens suffrage.

In fact heres a contemporary source from 1906 praising the suffragette movement:

"I hope the more old-fashioned suffragists will stand by them. In my opinion, far from having injured the movement, [the Suffragettes] have done more during the last 12 months to bring it within the region of practical politics than we have been able to accomplish in the same number of years"

Who said that? Millicent Fawcett? Oh clearly she's just biased towards suffragettes?

But even if I gave evidence that the Suffragettes were indeed more effective than the Suffragists, you could easily find an opposing argument and vice versa. Ww1 happened and in the end that swift change of culture is what gave women their rights to vote (or at least the wealthy).

What can be argued is the historical reasons of why the Suffragettes became even more violent in 2nd decade of the 20th century leading to more guerrilla warfare like tactics being deployed such as arson.

Black Friday happened. Was a protests against the government caused by then Prime Minister Asquith, reneging his promise to put a bill granting womens suffrage through parliament. This protest started off as peaceful and ended up with women being physically and sexually assaulted by the police and counterprotesters with there being accusations of plain clothes police officers inciting this violence. Do I even have to say it?

In order to avoid further molestation, the Suffragettes stopped doing large gatherings with each other and went "underground" so to speak getting more and more violent.

What we should recall is the fact that prior to this Emmeline Pankhurst told the Suffragettes to stop all operations and renewed them after this traumatic event.

Prior to the suffragettes emergence the fight for women's rights had been by in large ignored by the public and it was only after their emergence that this became an issue in the forefront of the public's mind.

For a more nuanced view:

"Viewing the militant movement from the second half of the twentieth century, it is difficult to argue that violence does not ‘pay off’.   [The history of independence of the colonies, and Civil Rights campaigns in the USA shows that violence can succeed.]   It may be that suffragette violence after 1912 fell between two stools, being inadequate to force the government but sufficiently destructive to antagonise public opinion.  This writer [i.e. Constance Rover] is of the opinion that, as the events turned out, militant tactics helped the women's suffrage movement until 1912, but after that date were harmful.   This does not mean that militancy was necessarily a foolish policy.   With hindsight, one can conclude that militancy failed in the last two years before the war, but with the experience of rebellion we have had since, one cannot conclude that militant tactics are an unsuccessful means of obtaining an objective such as enfranchisement..."

- Constance Rover 1967.

I use the quote in specific because it calls the civil rights movement violent. And was written a year prior to the end of the movement. It's almost as if the movement has been whitewashed by liberals to be a completely non-violent effort or something.

Singing Revolution and Velvet Revolution

I'm putting both of these together as these states are all former Soviet nations who have became arguably more successful than others like Moldova, Bulgaria and the aforementioned Georgia.

Now in the post-Soviet Baltic states, there are a large list of things i could talk about. The high suicide rates, the mass exodus leading to a quarter of the population in each nation leaving them, the large amount of people at risk of poverty, high incarceration rates, the gutting of labour laws, the rise of anti-semitism and the glorification of Nazis within their societies all come to mind. Some of these also apply to Czechia and Slovakia.

I could talk about specific events such as the Gorilla scandal, the murder Jan of Kuciak literally everything concerning Czech prime minister Babiš and the large proportion of Soviet Nostalgia in both Czechia and Slovakia (1/3 in the former and 1/2 in the latter).

I could mention protests that have taken place after these revolutions leading to the usage of rubber bullets and tear gas to disperse protesters who were acting non-violently. But I'd be repeating myself so I'm leaving it at that.

"But Lilly" you might say, "that doesn't necessarily disprove OPs point that these protests were successful, they did after all achieve their goals of 'political revolution/ending war/gaining womens suffrage".

And that's true. But...

TL;DR

OP used these as examples to contrast against so called failed violent revolutions with OP using violent revolutions like Vietnam, Haiti, Cuba, China, the USSR and the French Revolution as examples of failed revolutions. Anyone with a brain knows these revolutions absolutely succeeded in their short term goals of political change. There is no Tsar anymore, Cuba and Vietnam are still socialist, the aristocracy of france were decapitated, Haitians arent slaves and China has no emperor.

So where does the problem with these revolutions lie? Well according to OP:

... of course as we've just seen the so called successful peaceful revolutions are also poverty-ridden, corrupt and unstable with problems years later so what's the actual difference? There is none (aside from the historical revisionism of socialist states but that's beside the point), it's just hypocrisy and an incredibly silly gotcha to those currently arguing for violent protest.

I could continue and talk about how Haiti collapsed because of sanctions from racist countries who wanted to punish Haiti for fighting against their white masters, how Vietnam was practically always in war throughout the 20th century and how its stabilized since the end of the Viet-Khmer war, how Cuba infinitely improved the lives of all Cubans and was far more humanitarian than any western nation at the time, how the USSR and communist China turned Russia and China from poor feudal states to economic powerhouses which were far more equal in nature than the US.

But this post is way too long and I don't want to have to read through another dozen sources written by anti-communists liberals again.

Edit: the conclusion didnt save properly (thanks tumblr)

To end I'll say that the major problem with non-violent protests that is shared by every single one of these examples (apart from womens rights) is the lack of punishment towards those who caused the problems the people were protesting against. This means that said people can become president or a member of the government without any impediment and those people continue to be corrupt. From Ellen Sirleaf Johnson to Mikheil Saakashvili to the Tunisian government to Andrej Babiš. On the other hand violent revolution makes sure that those who war complicit in the crimes of the past are not able to usher in the crimes of the future, even if others eventually do.

The thing about that is progress has still been made, and even if they begin to reverse some of the gains that had been made they cant reverse all of them. With non-violent revolutions there is no change except for the ways that those in power step on the working class being more covert than overt.

You can decide which you prefer.

[libertariantaoist]

Foreign Policy Focus is a podcast hosted by Kyle Anzalone. It covers current events overseas and how those events affect you at home. While US military operations in the Middle East seem like they are on the other side of the world, they have real impacts on the everyday lives of Americans. Wars are the most costly of all US government actions and politicians use them to strip away rights of Americans. Knowing what your government is doing around the globe will give you insight into what they are doing at home.

On FPF #421, Kyle discusses Trump getting Iran and Israel wrong. Trump continues the failed maximum pressure campaign against Iran. The Iranian people are suffering but their leaders remain firmly in place. The US continues to place more sanctions on Iran and Iran responds by moving away from more commitments outlined in the defunct JCPOA. The US is now looking to exploit protests in Iran in an attempt to weaken the leadership.

Like Trump’s Iran policy, Trump has been wrong on Israel from the start. Trump has already taken major steps moving the US embassy and recognizing the Golan Heights as Israel territory. Now, the Trump administration has changed the US position on Israeli settlements.  The settlements clearly violate international law – and for the past four decades, the US has agreed – now the US says that isn’t the case. The move is being seen as a boon to Netanyahu, who is in a power struggle, and to legitimize any Israel decision to annex parts of the West Bank.

Links

Amazon will protest the Pentagon awarding the Penton’s cloud contract – JEDI – to Microsoft. [Link]

Ukraine

Russia will return three ships to Ukraine. Russia seized the ships after the Ukrainian ships entered Russian waters without permission. [Link]

Bolivia

Officials of the coup government in Bolivia are threatening opposition legislators and journalists. [Link]

At least 23 people have been killed during protests in Bolivia. [Link]

NK

North Korea says it is not going to engage in talks with the US just so Trump can brag about it. North Korea wants to put changing the hostile policy on the table. [Link]

The US and South Korea postponed upcoming wargames. [Link]

Trump tweets at Kim Jong-un telling him to make a deal soon. [Link]

North Korea says it will not engage in talks with the US unless the US hostile policy is on the agenda. [Link]

Afghanistan

From January through October, the US dropped over 6,000 missiles and bombs on Afghanistan. [Link]

American and Australian hostages were released by the Taliban in exchange for three Taliban officials. [Link]* The Afghan government claims victory over ISIS-K. It says over 600-IS fighters have surrendered to the government over the past few weeks. [Link]

12 civilians – including three children – were killed by a car bomb in Kabul. [Link]

Israel

Pompeo announces the US no longer views Israeli settlements are inconsistent with international law. [Link]

Iran

Protest breakout in Iran over rising fuel prices. At least one person has died during protests. [Link]

Amnesty International reports that over 100 people were killed during protests in Iran. [Link]

New documents from Iran are leaking showing how Iran capitalized on the Iraq War to gain influence in a new Iraqi government. [Link]

The IRGC warns it will use decisive and revolutionary force to end protests. [Link]

Pompeo says the US stands with Iranian protesters. [Link]

Pompeo says the US will end sanction waivers for Iran’s Fordow nuclear site. [Link]

Iran now has 130 tonnes of heavy water. The JCPOA limited Iran to under 130 tonnes. [Link]

Syria

Turkey is threatening to attack northeastern Syria if all Syrian Kurdish forces as withdrawn. [Link]

Turkey says Syria Kurds killed 10 people with a car bomb in a Turkish controlled in northern Syria. [Link]* Russia announces it has taken control of a former-US base in northern Syria. [Link]

Libya

Seven civilians were killed by an airstrike at a biscuit factory in Libya. Haftar’s forces are behind the attack. [Link]

The US carried out four drone attacks in southern Libya at the end of September. Officials claim the attacks killed roughly ⅓ of the 150 IS fighters in Libya. The drones were launched from Niger. [Link]

Listen Here

[marjiesreadingdiary-blog]

The Russian revolution

1894, Nicholas II becomes tsar of Russia: Workers & peasants lived in poverty & hardship while elite lived in luxury. Long struggle in Russia against injustices of the system

1905, 1905 Revolution: Revolution forces Tsar to allow the creation of a state duma/national assembly. Its power was limited

1st Aug 1914, World War I: Disaster for Russia. At the front, Russia suffered series of devastating defeats. At home, food shortages & economic chaos. Tsar held responsible (he was army’s commander in chief, standing in the way of govt reform)

23rd Feb 1917, *February revolution: Women’s protest in Petrograd to mark International Women’s day & protest over bread shortages. Next day, joined on the streets by workers & students protesting the Tsar’s rule. Troops joined. Protest escalates, govt loses power over capital.

2nd Mar 1917, Nicholas II abdicates: 300 years of Romanov rule comes to an end. Members of State Duma had formed a Provisional govt which was to hold power until a Constituent Assembly was elected to give Russia a new constitution. Provisional govt shared power w the Petrograd Soviet, a council elected by workers & soldiers that controlled the capitals troops, transport & communications. Petrograd Soviet dominated by Socialist Revolutionary Party & the Marxist Menshevik was more radical than govt but support govt decision to continue war & honour commitments made to Russia’s allies. 

3rd Apr 1917, Lenin returns from exile, Bolshevik party gain support: Lenin (leader of Bolshevik party) opposed imperialist war. Also demanded immediate redistribution of land from rich landowners to peasants & transfer of power from bourgeois Provisional govt to the ppl’s Soviets (councils). Bolshevik slogan: “Bread, Peace and Land”. As Russia’s economic & military crisis deepened, its appeal to masses grew. 

18th June 1917, June Offensive: A new Russian military offensive ended in disaster w 400,000 Russian casualties, massive desertions & collapse of army morale/discipline

Jul 1917, The July Days: Soldiers & Sailors joined by workers w Bolshevik support in Petrograd mutinied. Open fire on protestors. Police crackdown on Bolshevik leaders, arrested key figures such as Leon Trotsky. 

5th Jul 1917, Lenin flees to Finland: With the help of Stalin & forged documents

8th Jul 1917, Kerensky becomes Prime minister: Socialist Alexander Kerensky became Russia’s new prime minister. 

25th Aug 1917, The Kornilov Affair: Army’s commander in chief General Kornilov orders his men to march on Petrograd to restore order. Bolsheviks played leading role in city’s defence against this attempted military coup. Trotsky sends “Red Guards” to defend key points in the city

25th Sept 1917, Bolsheviks take control of Petrograd Soviet

10th Oct 1917, Lenin returns to Petrograd

25th Oct 1917, *Bolshevik/October Revolution: Red Guards & loyal troops seized key points around the capital, stormed the Provisional govt’s headquarters at the Winter’s Palace. Next day, Lenin announce overthrow of provisional govt

Nov 1917, *Russian civil war: Bolsheviks consolidate their power, civil war against counter-revolutionary “White Russian” forces who had foreign support as well as independence movements & non-Bolshevik socialists. Est 2 million soldiers dead, typhus epidemic & famine killed 9 million civilians

By end of 1921, Bolsheviks win Russian Civil war: Under Lenin’s leadership, set about building a new socialist order

30th Dec 1923, *Creation of Soviet Union/USSR: Single party state where all opposition was suppressed. Brief hopes for Russian democracy during the times of the February revolution distinguished