#specifically missing mike and cal today

[enchantedmalum]

i miss malum content both together and individually where are they what are they doing how are they have they drank enough water today have they eaten enough are they getting enough sleep when's the last time they had a really good laugh these are all very important questions i need answered

[whiskery-louis]

Game Night

** Hi everyone here is my first imagine in a while and it is pretty long and there will be a part 2!

Synopsis: Luke and you broke up 6 months ago. Ashton invites you over for game night.

Luke Hemmings x reader

Warnings: None

Please enjoy and let me know what you think!!

*not my photo*

“Come on Y/N you have to come see us! We’re traveling across the country just to see you!” Ashton whined through the phone.

“Well I didn’t ask you too Ash. I can’t risk seeing him-”

“He’s not coming, he’s staying here with her. Hell I don’t even think he knows we left.”

You sighed, “Who exactly is ‘we’?”

“Me and Mikey,” you could hear the smile in his voice. You had always been the closest to him and Michael. Not that you and Calum weren’t close, it was just different.

“What about Cal?” you asked.

“He’s staying back so you know who doesn’t get suspicious about the three of us all leaving for a weekend.”

“I don’t know Ash,” you sighed again. “I have work and stuff. Plus I was supposed to see the twins this weekend, and I wanted to go to Target…” you trailed off as you rattled on with excuses.

“Oh please, you know you miss us just as much as we miss you. It’s been six months Y/N, just come hangout for the night. I promise it’s not gonna be anything big. Just you, me, Mike and Crystal. We’ll just do pizza and play some games. Please Y/N, we’re already at the airport and if you don’t come willingly we got your new address from Lacey.”

You mentally cursed your best friend, she knew you specifically didn’t give any of them your new address for this very reason. You were out of excuses and you could hear Ashton’s smirk through the phone. He had you cornered and he knew it.

“Fine. Text me your Airbnb info and I’ll come over tomorrow when I’m done work. But you better be getting the good pizza, and there better be drinks.”

“Yes she’s in!” you heard Mikey yell in the background. You rolled your eyes but couldn’t help the smile that spread over your face.

“Bye boys, safe flight.”

You hung up the phone and put your head in your hands. While part of you was very excited to see Ashton and Michael again there was still a part of you that was worried. There was too much history between you and him so of course they all knew about it. They tried not to take sides during the break up but everyone knew he had Calum and you had the other two. It was part of the reason that you had moved back home instead of trying to find a place to stay in L.A.. You could feel the tension that was building between the four of them and the last thing you wanted to do was ruin their friendships or their band. It was all way more important than you. 

You hadn’t really spoken to any of them much other than the casual ‘how are you’ texts here and there. But from him it had been radio silence for six months. Now here you were, five minute after speaking with Ashton and you were already more stressed than you’d be in week. What did you get yourself into?

~~~~~~~~~~~~~

It was nearing 6:15 and you couldn’t bring yourself to pull up to the house, you had been circling the block for almost 20 minutes and every time you were about to stop you told yourself one more lap. You weren’t sure what was wrong with you, you knew it was only Ash, Mike and Crystal and yet just the thought of being around his friends was enough to make you sick. 

“Fuck it,” you muttered, finally pulling into the drive. You grabbed your bag, and although you hated to admit it, you were excited to see your old friends.

You walked up to the door and hesitantly knocked on it. As soon as your knuckles hit the wood you could hear yelling and footsteps running up to the door.

“Y/N!!!” Ashton yelled engulfing you in a massive hug.

“Can’t breathe…”

“Oi sorry, I’ve just missed you lots.” 

“I missed you too.” you grinned at him, wondering what you had been worried about all day. It felt like no time had passed.

“Well let her in the door man,” Michael spoke up from behind.

You smiled as you entered the house and walked over to Mikey hugging him hard.

“It’s been too long,” he muttered as he let you back.

“Well yeah, that kinda happens when there’s a global pandemic and I move across the county.”

You could tell Michael was going to tell you off for moving but Crystal came in the room then and thankfully saved you from talking about him.

She wrapped her arms around you giving you a quick hug, “It’s so good to see you, I’m glad you made it!”

“Me too, though if I didn’t come willingly I knew you’d show up on my doorstep.”

“You got that right,” she laughed, “It took all my energy to keep them in the house all day.”

“Well I appreciate it, I had a lot of work to get through today figuring I’ll still be hungover on Monday from this weekend.”

It was fitting that as soon as I mentioned being hungover we walked into the kitchen to a full stocked bar.

“Man I forgot you guys really go all out for game nights,” you couldn’t help but laugh at some of the fond memories.

“Okay so what game are we playing first?” Ashton asked as he handed you a drink.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Two hours later and you really didn’t understand why you were so nervous to come. It was one of the best feelings catching up with your old friends and thankfully they didn’t bring him up once. You were in the middle of an intense game of charades, Crystal and you were kicking the boys asses.

“Alright do you guys want to give up yet? You’re never going to beat us so why not save yourselves the embarrassment.”

They both looked annoyed at how the game was progressing, “Well maybe if Mike could draw anything other than stick figures we would’ve stood a chance.” Ashton grumbled.

“And now you see why I always make sure someone else gets stuck with him,” Crystal laughed as she dodged the pen Michael threw at her.

You all laughed as you cleaned up and you went over to the stack of games, contemplating what you wanted to play next. You guys had made your way through a few different games and a few rounds of drinks and honestly you were exhausted. Since moving back home you didn’t hang out with many people other than Lacey and you forgot how much energy it took to be around people. You were tired but it was the best kind of tired. 

“Can we just watch a movie now? I’m tired of losing,” MIchael whined from the couch.

“That’s exactly what a sore loser would say,” you shot back.

Michael just smiled and shrugged his shoulders looking at you, “At least I know it, but I so call picking the movie.” He picked up the remote and started searching through Netflix looking for a good comedy that everyone would watch.

“Anyone up for another round?” Ashton asked and you nodded following him into the kitchen to help. It was silent as he rummaged through the alcohol looking for something new to drink. You hopped up on the counter waiting to see what he would make.

“So how have you really been?” he asked, breaking the silence.

You looked up at him, startly by his question and you could see him looking at you intently and knew exactly what he was talking about, or more so who he was talking about.

You chewed on your bottom lip as you contemplated what to tell him. “I’ve been fine.” you answered shortly.

He scoffed at your answer, “Come on Y/N, I know you better than that and as relaxed as you seem, there is still a part of you that is on edge. You ghosted us all when you left and it was like we lost a member of our family. So tell me the truth, how are you really?”

His answer startled you, and you blinked to keep the tears at bay. “Ash I really don’t wanna ruin the night and talk about him. Can we just table it for now and go back in there with Mike and Crystal. I really don't wanna bring the mood down.” You stared back at him and there must’ve been something in your eyes because he dropped it. He handed you a drink and the two of you went back into the other room. 

“Hey what were you two talking about?” Crystal asked as you sat next to her on the couch, a knowing look in her eye.

You elbowed her subtly, “Debating if Mikey was gonna pick a shitty movie or not,” you laughed.

“Don’t hate until you see it, it’s a good one you all like.” He pointed to the TV and you saw Shrek was on. “Also you could say thank you I ordered a pizza and it should be here in about 30 minutes.”

“Didn’t you just eat a plate of buffalo chicken dip and mac’n’cheese?”

He shrugged, “If it’s a problem Y/N then you can’t have any.” He stuck his tongue out at you.

You held your hands up in defense “No, no. Just asking, I’m for sure eating that pizza.”

“That’s what I thought,” Michael replied smugly.

You just rolled your eyes at him and sat back to begin the movie. Not even 10 minutes later and there was a knock on the door.

“Y/N since you were so judgy you can go answer the door.”

“Fine, fine. Though you suck at telling time Mikey, this was way less than 30 minutes.”

You got up from the couch and made your way to the door excited that the pizza was here much earlier than anticipated. There was another knock on the door as you were opening it. You froze when you saw who was there. 

Luke.

He must not have been expecting you either because he had a dumbfounded look on his face, and his fist was frozen in mid knock.

“Y/N?” he breathed, his eyes boring into yours.

It was silent and you both just stood there and stared at each other. It had been six months since you had seen him and although there were some noticeable changes he was still the same Luke who broke your heart all those months ago. His arms were larger and his shoulders slightly broader. His hair was longer, his roots growing out which somehow suited him more. He had shaved his quarantine beard but the stubble was growing back. His eyes were the same blue that you fell in love with, but they were missing the usual mischievous glint.

“Luke why are you just-” Calum was caught off walking up behind Luke, his face lighting up when he saw you. “Y/N?! What are you doing here? It’s so good to see you!” He squeezed past Luke and pulled you into a tight embrace.

You had no words as you hugged Cal back, you were still in shock at them being here and you couldn’t take your eyes off Luke,

“What the hell is taking so long?” Ashton came around the corner and froze when he saw the new additions to the party. “Oh you guys are early…” he trailed off.

At his statement you felt the rage building in your veins, you pushed Calum off of you turning to Ashton the anger seeping out of you. “I’m sorry what? They’re what Ashton?”

He looked sheepishly at you, “Surprise?” he shrugged his shoulders, with a slight smile on his face.

You couldn’t believe this. It was all a setup. The whole night was a trick for you to see him again when Ashton knew more than anything that it was the last thing you wanted. You were at a loss for words, as much as you wanted to yell, you didn’t have the energy anymore.

“Look we can explain…”

You held your hand up cutting him off, “Don’t Ashton, just don’t. I don’t want to hear it. I’m leaving.”

You stormed into the other room, to get you things. MIchael was trying to look busy but the guilt was written all over his face. Crystal was sitting next to him with her arms crossed glaring at her fiance, she looked up when you walked in.

“I am so sorry Y/N, I had no idea or I would’ve never let them pull this stunt.”

You gave her a weak smile, “I’m just going to get my things and go.”

Michael turned and looked like he was going to say something, but one look from Crystal silenced him.

“Thanks for the fun while it lasted, but please don’t reach out again,” you heard footsteps behind you and knew the others had followed you into the room. “I thought maybe I could be friends with some of you,” you pointedly looked at Luke, “But if this is the shit you are going to pull them I am out. I’m sorry but I cannot go through this again. I just can’t.”

With that you grabbed your bag and all but ran out of the house. As you sat in your car you were thankful that you didn’t have too much to drink and were able to drive yourself home. The thirty minute drive seemed to take forever. All you wanted was your bed and to be distracted by Netflix. After what felt like an eternity you pulled into your driveway and walked into your house. You threw your bag on the table and couldn't believe the night you had. You knew Ashton and Michael had wanted you to talk to Luke when you first broke up, but that was six months ago. You never thought that they would pull this shit tonight. It was almost more painful this time as you realized you had to cut all of them out of your life and not just Luke. 

You hadn’t expected to see him tonight and it really messed you up. You had spent the last six month erasing him from your life, as much as you could. You put everything he gave you into a box that was hidden in your basement. You tried to throw it away but it felt wrong somehow. He was too big a part of your life to completely get rid of. Lacey once asked you why you didn’t get rid of it all and you knew she thought it meant you still loved him but that wasn’t it. You just couldn’t bear to part with everything that had once brought you so much happiness. You hadn’t opened the box since you moved back home, as you went downstairs to bring it to the kitchen, you knew it was going to hurt more after seeing him tonight, but you couldn’t stop yourself.

You spent over an hour looking through all the memories the two of you had made during your time together and you were a mess sitting on the floor with tears rolling down your face. Maybe it was from the exhaustion that raked your body or the alcohol that was still in your system but you left the contents of the box sprawled over the island and slipped on his old Nirvana shirt before going to your bed and finally falling asleep.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The next thing you knew you were being jolted awake by a banging on your door. You looked at the clock and groaned when you saw it was only 8:00am. Who the hell would be here so early. Hoping it was just a package you rolled back over and tried to fall back asleep, when the person knocked again.

You signed as you rolled out of bed and trudged downstairs in nothing but the old shirt you fell asleep in. Rubbing your eyes as they adjusted to the brightness, you opened the door and had to squint to see who was there.

“Y/N, you uh forgot your phone and I wanted to make sure it got back to you safely.”

You hated that your heart skipped a beat as your name rolled off his lips, your eyes focused on him and the events of last night came back to you instantly.

“Luke.”

[junker-town]

3 winners and 4 losers from Playoff Saturday

Alabama and Clemson will play for the title again. These are some of the key figures from the day that became official.

The College Football Playoff semifinals are in the books. Notre Dame and Oklahoma are done, and Clemson and Alabama are where they usually are: playing each other in the national title game. They’ll see each other January 7 in Santa Clara, California.

Clemson and Bama were the winners of the day’s two games. But let’s pick out a few more specific winners and losers from the season’s most important day yet.

Winner: Trevor Lawrence

Clemson’s five-star freshman QB owned the day more than any other single player did. He was 27-of-39 for 327 yards, three touchdowns, and no picks against an elite defense. Lawrence being good now isn’t surprising. He was one of the highest-rated prospects in the history of recruiting, and Clemson surrounded him with a top skill-position group and a road-grading offensive line.

But his total reliability as a freshman — almost never throwing picks, only making occasional, minor mistakes — is incredible. If he can beat the Tide, he’ll be the second true freshman to QB his team to a title, after Oklahoma’s Jamelle Holieway in 1985. I won’t put it past him.

Winner: Tua Tagovailoa

Tagovailoa lost out to Kyler Murray in one of the best Heisman races ever, but he was the better of the two quarterbacks in the Orange Bowl (though Murray put up three excellent quarters of his own and still fairly deserved the trophy).

Tua put up one of those lines that would be absurd if he hadn’t done it several times already: 24-of-27 for 318 yards, four touchdowns, and (of course) no interceptions.

He looked healthy and every bit as crisp as he did for the first 80 percent of the season, when he built what had seemed to be an insurmountable lead for the Heisman. People who wish to relitigate that trophy race may do so now, but Tagovailoa will happily get ready for the title game instead. His bad SEC Championship feels like a distant memory, even though the Clemson defense he’ll see next is in a different world than the Oklahoma D he just saw.

Loser: Notre Dame’s big-game reputation, again

The Irish have now lost their last eight New Year’s Six (or equivalent) bowl games, going back to the 1993 season’s Cotton Bowl. I’m 24, and I have not been alive to see Notre Dame win a top-tier bowl game. On the one hand, props to Notre Dame for managing to stay relevant as a national brand amid such a long drought. On the other, while the Irish deserved their Playoff spot, much of the country will still decline to take them seriously. They’ve once again failed to make an emphatic argument in their own favor.

Loser: Nick Saban’s headset

Rest in peace:

Moment of silence for Nick Saban's headset... pic.twitter.com/MTH8kq0gwm

— Yahoo Sports (@YahooSports) December 30, 2018

He was up by 18 at this point.

Loser: Anyone who bet the over in the Orange Bowl at 79.5 or higher

That was the opening total on Selection Sunday. It went even higher, reaching the highest total in Playoff history, comfortably. The game settled at 79 points exactly, with Alabama kneeling out the clock inside Oklahoma’s 10-yard line. No, I’m not personally upset about it. Why would you ask?

Loser: Jim Harbaugh

Heading into a game at Ohio State the Saturday after Thanksgiving, Michigan was ranked No. 4. The Wolverines were favored to win in Columbus, an extreme rarity in a series Ohio State has owned. This seemed like their best shot in years. That ended in humiliation, though. So maybe Michigan would at least beat a supposedly inferior team in the Peach Bowl and see some postseason success this year? Nope. This qualifies as a collapse, which Harbaugh’s getting used to in Ann Arbor.

Winner: Georgia

The Dawgs, who took Alabama to the wire and had a legit case as one of the four best teams, did not make the Playoff. Their players spent the day tweeting gleefully about Notre Dame’s and Oklahoma’s struggles, suggesting they should’ve been in the field instead.

But hear me out on this: nobody is getting a better deal than the Dawgs.

Their fans think they’re better than both Notre Dame and Oklahoma, so the logical follow is that they’d have faced Clemson as the No. 3 seed in the Playoff. That would suck. What’s much better is getting to play Texas in the Sugar Bowl, probably winning that game by a lot, and pretending for the whole offseason that Clemson wouldn’t have beaten you by 21.

Previous bowl season winners and losers

Winner: Rain

Rain won the inaugural First Responder Bowl, canceling the Boise State-Boston College game in Dallas before it got through the first quarter. Games get canceled for weather reasons all the time, but this appears to have been the first FBS bowl in the modern era to meet that fate. The game was declared a no-contest, its few stats wiped out.

Winner: Cheez-It

The sponsor of a middling (at best) bowl game in Phoenix wound up overseeing one of the most virally enjoyed bowls in years. Cal and TCU played just a hideous game, combining for nine interceptions, but you can’t buy publicity like the cracker-maker got at the end of it.

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Indeed, those are Cheez-Its in that trophy bowl.

Loser: Miami

The Hurricanes secured their spot as the most disappointing team of 2018 by getting caved in by Wisconsin at the Pinstripe Bowl. The preseason No. 8 Hurricanes finished 7-6. What’s worse, they have a ton of problems facing them as they move into 2018.

Winner: Auburn

The Tigers routed Purdue in the Music City Bowl, 63-14. Had they not let up considerably in the second half, they would’ve easily broken the all-time bowl scoring record Army tied days earlier (70, and more on that shortly). They still put together one of the most dazzling offensive games any team has had in years, providing a nice little capper to a pretty terrible season for Gus Malzahn. Maybe it’ll be something to build on, or maybe it was just fun.

Winner: Gardner Minshew

Washington State beat Iowa State in a fun Alamo Bowl, and Minshew threw for 299 yards and a couple of touchdowns. He capped off one of the best and most memorable seasons ever for a Mike Leach QB in a uniformly positive way.

Winner: Army

The Black Knights won what you could fairly call the most lopsided bowl game in history, 70-14 against Houston at the Armed Forces Bowl. The 56-point margin of victory tied the record, and their 70 points tied the record, too. All of that pretty wells sums it up, but it’s worth noting Army scored 10 TDs on 10 offensive drives. (The Knights lost one fumble, which they offset with a defensive touchdown.) They finished with a program-high 11 wins and have never won more games in two years than the 21 they’ve won these last two.

Loser: Major Applewhite

That result has Houston head coach Applewhite’s job in danger, sources told SB Nation’s Steven Godfrey. UH’s president famously said upon hiring Applewhite that the school fires coaches when they go 8-4 (though it doesn’t usually, in truth), and Applewhite has now had a worse record than that in each of his two years. Offensive coordinator Kendal Briles resigned after the bowl, with sources telling Godfrey he was expected to head to Florida State. UH was supposed to lose this game without DT Ed Oliver and QB D’Eriq King, but Applewhite may have lost more than the bowl.

Winner: Troy, for somehow still having Neal Brown

The Trojans beat Buffalo in the Dollar General Bowl, a weird game that included the Bulls’ offense not seeing the field for the whole third quarter. That was weird, but what wasn’t was seeing Troy get to double-digit wins. The Trojans have done that three years in a row under Brown, with bowl wins capping all three and Power 5 wins at LSU and Nebraska mixed in. It’s astonishing that nobody’s yet hired Brown to a head coaching gig in those ranks, but Troy will take it. The program had never won 10 games before this three-year run of doing it every year. Troy’s one of the sport’s most reliable winners. Troy!

Loser: Memphis

The Tigers were the losers in the Birmingham Bowl, the most dramatic bowl yet. After blowing an 18-point lead, they scored a go-ahead touchdown with 1:15 left against Wake Forest. But they let the Demon Deacons march all the way downfield to take the lead back with 34 seconds left. Then they got into game-tying field goal range, and Riley Patterson knocked through a 38-yarder that got wiped out because Wake had called an icing timeout. He knocked through another after that, but a false start pushed it back to a 43-yarder, which Patterson then missed to give the win to the Deacs.

Winner: Jaylon Ferguson

The senior Louisiana Tech defensive end used the Hawaii Bowl to break Terrell Suggs’ career Division I sack record of 44, fighting through an iffy facemask call and some brief official scoring drama to do it. Ferguson has gotten little attention over his career, because he plays in Conference USA. But he’s been productive for four years, putting up particularly big totals in his sophomore and senior years. Bowl games are primarily about TV, but at their best, they should be about players, and seeing Ferguson celebrate was tremendous.

(Yes, it’s fine to note the NCAA did not count bowl stats before 2002, and that might make Suggs’ and others of his time look worse. It’s a bad policy. But that’s not Ferguson’s problem, and he should sleep fine going forward as a record-holder. He’s also a winner because he got to go to Hawaii, and because Tech actually beat the Rainbow Warriors.)

Steven Erler-USA TODAY Sports

Winner: BYU

The Cougars had an up-and-down year, but they made sure to finish with a winning record by beating the hell out of WMU in the Potato Bowl. They gained 9.4 yards per play to the Broncos’ 4.1 and got one of the most sparkling QB lines ever out of freshman Zach Wilson: 18-of-18 passing for 317 yards, four touchdowns, and (obviously) no picks. He was two measly screen passes away from qualifying for and setting the FBS record for single-game completion percentage. Former Georgia QB Grayson Lambert has it now at 96 percent.

Winner: FIU

The Bahamas Bowl was good fun, and Butch Davis’ Panthers came out on top against Toledo. They did it with a backup quarterback, Christian Alexander, running all over the Rockets’ defense and also converting some key late third downs with his arm. FIU lost a lot of talent from an eight-win team in 2017, Davis’ first season, and still inched forward to nine wins this year, including the second bowl win in program history and first since 2010. It’s not hard to see FIU as a Conference USA contender in 2019.

Winner: UAB

The Blazers did not field a team two seasons ago, or three seasons ago. But head coach Bill Clark stuck around and, when the program was reinstated a half-year after shutting down in December 2014, got to building a winner. A JUCO-heavy roster-building strategy paid off this year, when UAB won Conference USA and put up 10 wins, the most in its history. That was before trouncing MAC champion NIU in the Boca Raton Bowl, 37-13. That was the program’s first bowl win ever.

Loser: The Pac-12

The worst Power 5 conference missed the Playoff for the third time in the five-year history of the event. Then it began its underwhelming bowl schedule with Arizona State losing (and losing unimpressively) to the Mountain West’s Fresno State in the Las Vegas Bowl.

Fresno comfortably covered a 6-point spread despite having a near-touchdown turn into a touchback when a fumble at the pylon went through the end zone. The Sun Devils did not seriously threaten to win. It’s the second year in a row the Pac-12’s lost in Vegas, after Oregon fell to Boise State in 2017, both times by double digits.

Loser: North Texas

UNT quarterback Mason Fine getting hurt against Utah State was a big shame. His teammates weren’t able to keep things close without him. What we’d pegged as one of the best matchups of bowl season turned into a rout. The good news, though: UNT head coach Seth Littrell surprised a bunch of people by not leaving for Kansas State, Texas Tech, or any other open coaching job. The Mean Green should be a Conference USA contender in 2019.

Winner: Tulane

The Green Wave hadn’t won a bowl since 2002. They hadn’t been in a bowl since 2013. They were 5-6 entering a Week 13 game against Navy, and they put their bowl eligibility on the line when they went for a 2-point conversion with 1:27 left in a 1-point game there. They got it and won, and then they went to the Cure Bowl and beat UL Lafayette by 17. Willie Fritz has gradually built the Wave up and now has some postseason success to show for it.

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Winner: FCS call-ups

Georgia Southern completed one of the year’s best turnarounds by beating Eastern Michigan on a 40-yard field goal at the buzzer of the Camellia Bowl. The Eagles’ 10 wins are their most since they made the jump to FBS in 2014, and they come a year after the program cratered to 2-10. Things started to turn around midseason last year, when Chad Lunsford took over for the fired Tyson Summers and went 2-4 after an 0-6 start. Now? GaSo looks as good as ever. When the Eagles are running the option, they’re good.

Appalachian State won impressively against Middle Tennessee at the New Orleans Bowl. The Mountaineers, who have hovered around the top 15 for most of the year in S&P+, are just really good. The Sun Belt champs showed out and did their conference proud, and they did it in their first game without Scott Satterfield, their coach who left for Louisville. Satterfield had transitioned the Mountaineers, like GaSo, from FCS blue-blood status to FBS startup. Things seem even better at App right now than they do at Southern.

So, hey, let’s count the Louisville as a winner in this group. The Satterfield hire already looked good, but it looks better now that App State’s had a good bowl and Mountaineer defensive coordinator Bryan Brown’s agreed to join Satterfield in Louisville. Meanwhile, there’s no reason new App coach Eliah Drinkwitz can’t win right away there.

Cheers to Kansas State, too, in a similar vein. The Wildcats’ new coach, outgoing NDSU boss Chris Klieman, is on to another FCS final. The drawback there is that K-State needs to sign some recruits. On another hand, it’s good to hire championship coaches.

Non-FBS winners and losers from this time of year

Winner: Mary Hardin-Baylor

The Cru beat Mount Union (the closest thing Division III has to its own North Dakota State) in a dramatic Stagg Bowl. UMHB’s now won two national titles in three years. That’s a hell of a thing for any program at any level, but it’s especially cool given this one’s newness. The school’s only been playing football for 21 years, starting in 1998. It was a playoff team by 2001, a regular contender after that, and now the best DIII team of the last three years.

Winner: North Carolina A&T

A&T beat Alcorn State in the Celebration Bowl to win HBCU football’s national title, 24-22. That makes three in four years (and in the Celebration Bowl’s history) for the Aggies, who have beaten up on the MEAC and SWAC and started this season by topping FBS East Carolina in Greenville. The team’s lost two games in two years. Rod Broadway built the Aggies up before retiring after 2017’s Celebration Bowl win, and first-year successor Sam Washington is now one-for-one.

Winner: Valdosta State

The Blazers won Division II’s national title — their fourth ever, also their fourth since 2004, and first since 2012— by surviving Ferris State in a truly wild championship game. QB Rogan Wells threw for five touchdowns in the title game and caught another, setting that game’s record for touchdowns responsible-for. VSU finished a sterling 14-0.

Loser: South Dakota State

The poor Jackrabbits have the misfortune of being rivals with North Dakota State. They’ve been unable to get over the NDSU hump for years, as their northern neighbors have become the most dominant program in the country at any level. The Bison blew them out in an FCS playoff semifinal in Fargo to continue both teams’ trends.

We’ll update this post as teams sort themselves going forward.

[medicalmarijuana-news]

The Federal Government Claims Zero Cannabis Jobs Exist. Here’s Why.

Editor’s Note: This week Leafly publishes “Cannabis Jobs Count,” a special series on jobs in the legal cannabis economy. The series begins today with Rob Reuteman’s report on cannabis employment data and why it’s so hard to find. We continue tomorrow with a state-by-state count of cannabis jobs.

  In this Oct. 1, 2015 photo, employees of Amazon Organics, a cannabis dispensary in Eugene, Ore., help customers on the state’s first day of adult-use retail sales. (AP Photo/Ryan Kang)

Cannabis culture has moved in a few short years from an illicit black market to a legal industry in 29 states and the District of Columbia. Earlier this year the data analysis firm New Frontier pronounced recreational cannabis the fastest-growing industry sector in the United States, outpacing electric vehicles, LED bulbs, solar installations and big data.

Legal cannabis sales reached nearly $7 billion in 2016, up from more than $5 billion last year. Many expect sales in excess of $20 billion by 2020, even without federal legalization.

But like any young industry, there’s much we don’t know. For instance, we have no solid government data on the number of people employed in the legal cannabis sector. We know these people and their jobs exist. We see them growing cannabis, producing oils and edibles, selling at retail shops. But beyond anecdotal evidence, and despite the emergence of several data analytics firms devoted to the industry, we have little information on their wages, benefits and working conditions.

“There are no reliable figures for the number of people employed nationally in the legal marijuana industry,” says Morgan Fox, communications manager for the Washington, D.C.-based Marijuana Policy Project.

He’s right. Last year Marijuana Business Daily (MJ Biz) estimated that somewhere between 21,000 and 33,000 U.S. companies get some or all of their revenue from legal cannabis. That includes growers, retailers, infused-product manufacturers, and testing labs, of course, but it also takes into account consultants, technology providers, security firms, hydroponics and other businesses. For those ancillary jobs, MJ Biz uses a common multiplier effect that assumes each of the 7,000 to 11,000 companies directly involved with the cannabis plant will generate revenue for at least three other companies.

Last year a group of Oregon economists estimated that each dispensary there employed at least six people, but it’s hard – and likely inaccurate – to extrapolate those numbers to other sectors of the industry. And it’s difficult to even have much confidence in that six-per-dispensary figure. Some of the biggest product manufacturers and retail shops in Seattle and Denver employ upwards of 100 people each.

The big industry-wide sales estimates are impressive. But the human factor remains elusive. That’s partly because legal cannabis is a young emerging industry, and partly because cannabis remains federally illegal.

Federal prohibition continues to hamstring the industry’s ability to collect and analyze data about its workers. Federal agencies, you see, are the authorities who traditionally collect and tabulate jobs data. The feds dictate to the states how they want that collection done—or, as is the case with cannabis, not done.

The U.S. Department of Labor’s data agency, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, doesn’t just refuse to acknowledge the existence of legal cannabis jobs—it doesn’t even have the capacity to tabulate them if the agency wanted to do so. Business and employment data are collected using the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), which assigns a code number to each occupation. Breakfast cereal manufacturing, for example, is 311230. No specific NAICS code exists for any part of the cannabis industry—and it’s not likely to come into existence anytime soon. NAICS codes are updated only once every five years by a consortium of US, Mexican, and Canadian government agencies. The next update is due in 2017. There is no cannabis code on the agenda.

Even if cannabis were legalized by the federal government tomorrow, it would be years before labor statistics bureaus could break those jobs into a separate category. In a pinch, they’d probably be lumped into 424210, “Botanical drugs and herbs merchant wholesalers,” as suggested in this online cannabis banking thread.

Going after state numbers

Farmworkers inside a drying barn take down newly harvested plants after a drying period, at Los Suenos Farms, America’s largest legal open air cannabis farm, in Avondale, Colo. During the fall 2016 harvest, the 36-acre farm at Los Suenos yielded 5 to 6 tons of cannabis. (AP Photo/Brennan Linsley)

So we have no official national data. What about state numbers?

Consider Colorado, poster child for the new cannabis economy. Because most of the industry remains federally illegal, “there is disagreement across the federal government as to how we collect employment data in the marijuana sector,” says Alexandra Hall, chief economist for the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment. “Until we get the feds on board, we’re going to have some challenges tracking employees.” That being the case, Hall said, “we work around it to some degree.”

Hall has made a few attempts to match up the state’s employer databases with its employee tax databases. But she admits, “we have run into some problems with that methodology. Ours is an incomplete estimate.”

She took a run at it early last year and came up with a figure of 6,000 payroll employees. “Because the numbers are changing at a faster rate than the overall economy, we’re probably not capturing all of it. It might be a third larger – maybe 8,000 workers – but we’re not talking about tens of thousands of jobs we’re not capturing.”

Others disagree. They put the direct payroll figure in the 10,000 to 13,000 range.

Andrew Freedman, director of marijuana coordination for the state of Colorado, also admitted the difficulty of coming up with an employment number for the legal cannabis industry. “There are about 20,000 occupational licenses currently issued, but it’s really hard to say how many of those folks have jobs,” he said earlier last year. “A lot of them are not great jobs, and the people often are pretty transitional, so I’d use a working figure of somewhere north of 10,000.”

Colorado has an indirect occupational tally that other legal states don’t. All employees of state-licensed cannabis companies must maintain a license from the Colorado Department of Revenue’s Marijuana Enforcement Division (MED). They’re like food industry worker cards. The occupational licenses are good for two years and allow the holder to work in the marijuana industry.

The number of active MED cards fluctuates, but in 2016 the number was usually hovered between 27,000 and 30,000. That’s a pretty solid data point. An official with the Department of Revenue added this caveat, however: “We do not track how many of these licensed individuals will go on to work in the industry.”

Taylor West, deputy director for the National Cannabis Industry Association, says she’s heard employment estimates of “30,000 in Colorado alone, based on occupational licenses and ancillary jobs. But even that is very rough, not based on a lot of hard numbers.”

Mike Elliott, formerly executive director of the Denver-based Marijuana Industry Group, also uses the number of MED license holders to come up with a figure of about 25,000 employees. From the number of license holders (27,350), “take off 10 percent for people who may no longer be employed in the industry or who let their license expire,” Elliott says. “That’s just people who touch marijuana – who grow, sell or manufacture it.” He adds, “I’m an attorney and very much part of the industry but I have no occupational license.”

Hunting the Colorado number

Farmworkers process newly harvested cannabis plants at Colorado’s Los Suenos Farms. (AP Photo/Brennan Linsley)

Frustration with the lack of a solid jobs figure led Adam Orens and a group of colleagues at the Marijuana Policy Group, a Denver-based economic consulting firm, to take a run at the data themselves. They thought the number of MED employment licenses was a good starting point, too—but a license itself didn’t necessarily equate to a full time job. By comparing the number of licenses with their own ground-truthed estimate of direct full-time employment, they estimated one full-time equivalent job (FTE) for every 2.14 MED licenses.

In their final analysis, published last October, the Marijuana Policy Group (MPG) estimated that there were 12,591 full-time jobs directly supported by the cannabis industry in Colorado in 2015. Using models that calculate additional indirect and induced employment, the MPG report found that $996 million in annual cannabis sales supported a total of 18,005 full time jobs in 2015.

What about 2016? “Year-over-year, if you just look at one state, you can probably scale it up accordingly,” Orens says. “There are a few nuances you’d miss—there was more outdoor cultivation in 2016, which requires relatively fewer workers—but overall you’d have a solid estimate.”

Colorado’s total cannabis sales in 2016 topped $1 billion at the end of October. They were on pace to hit $1.33 billion by the end of December. That 33 percent increase, applied to employment, would push the state’s full time cannabis jobs to 23,407.

The Big Kahuna: California

Aaron Gonzalez follows a path to harvest cannabis from grower Laura Costa’s farm near Garberville, Calif., in October 2016. (AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli)

What about the Golden State? Again, nobody knows for sure. Experts agree on only two things about California’s cannabis market. It’s the largest in the country, and there is virtually no government or institution-backed job data available. “Whatever data we lack in Colorado,” says Joe Hodas, chief marketing officer for Denver-based Dixie Elixirs, “it’s a hundredfold in California.”

Chris Walsh, editorial director of Marijuana Business Daily, estimates that California represents 40 to 50 percent of all legal sales, nationally. “California is a big black hole of data,” he says, “and it’s half the industry.”

John Kagia is executive vice president of industry analytics for Washington, D.C.-based New Frontier , a data company focused exclusively on legal marijuana industry. New Frontier has formed a partnership with ArcView, the cannabis-focused angel investor network, to produce annual reports and updates on the industry.

“We have not built a comprehensive view of the national legal cannabis job market,” says Kagia. “However, we have seen some state-specific analysis for markets like Colorado and Oregon. In Colorado, the estimates suggest over 10,000 people are employed in the industry. In Oregon, a recent report found that 2,100 retail jobs had been created, but it did not project numbers for the overall industry.” Since each state classifies the industry jobs differently, “it will take some us some time to build a definitive national picture on the legal industry’s employment level,” he adds. “It’s a very difficult number to capture.”

Bringing light to job data darkness

In this, Oct. 27, 2016, photo, Rachael Torricelli looks at marijuana for sale at Blum in Las Vegas. (AP Photo/John Locher)

Marijuana Business Daily, which has been tracking the industry since 2011, included rough national employment numbers for the first time in its 2016 Marijuana Business Factbook.

“It’s very difficult to get numbers in this industry,” says MJ Biz’s Walsh. “The state estimates tend to be way off. Some are laughable. In some cases, people with great credentials are just making shit up.”

MJ Biz does an anonymous online survey of cannabis business owners. One question that was asked of nearly 1,000 respondents was how many people they employ, full and part-time. “We can get an average for each niche,” Walsh says. “Given the darkness of the industry, this is the best way to look at it.”

The results? MJ Biz provides both a conservative and an aggressive estimate.  For jobs in which an employee “touches the plant,” the estimate ranges from 55,000 to 88,000. Total industry employment is projected to be from 101,000 to 154,000.

For the industry total, Walsh uses an economic multiplier that projects two ancillary jobs for each direct job. “We also include people from other industries that may have one employee who deals with the pot industry,” he says. “We strive to provide realistic numbers grounded in reality, not to make the industry appear bigger than it really is,” Walsh adds. “We don’t lobby, offer investments, provide consulting services or have any other reason to publish hype. We present a conservative picture of the market.”

At this point, with the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics refusing to acknowledge the existence of a single legal cannabis job, a conservative estimate may be the best we’re going to get.

Lead Image: Brennan Linsley

Coming tomorrow: Leafly dives into state-by-state data to determine how many full time jobs are supported by the legal cannabis industry. On Friday, Rob Reuteman profiles five real people in five real cannabis jobs. In our final installment, we look at current employment openings in the cannabis industry—complete with salaries, benefits, and some surprising job titles.

Rob Reuteman

Rob Reuteman is a former columnist and business editor at the Rocky Mountain News. He now teaches journalism at Colorado State University.

The post The Federal Government Claims Zero Cannabis Jobs Exist. Here’s Why. appeared first on Leafly.

from Medical Marijuana News http://ift.tt/2hTpU8U via https://www.potbox.com/

[junker-town]

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors football is actually exciting again

Hawaii responded to a brutal opening stretch by winning its first bowl in a decade. That’s great, because here comes another brutal opening stretch.

By the end of September 2017, the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors will have traveled to Massachusetts, Los Angeles, and Wyoming. That is a staggering number of frequent flyer miles, but it cannot hold a candle to 2016’s slate:

Hawaii opens in Sydney, travels to Ann Arbor, returns home for a week, and heads to Tucson. That’s five projected top-70 opponents, four away from home, and three in the first four weeks.

That is insane. Hawaii's always going to travel silly miles, but ... Hawaii to Sydney to Ann Arbor to Hawaii to Arizona, all before September 20. (Here's where you're free to make your own "...all while going to class" remark.)

If the Warriors can maintain morale and health, they might find wins. They do get a bye after Arizona, and of their nine remaining opponents, six are projected 90th or worse. If UH overachieves its No. 118 projection, then getting to 6-7 wouldn't be out of the question.

If nothing else, Nick Rolovich knew exactly what he was getting into.

Thirteen minutes in, Hawaii was tied at 14-14 with Cal in Australia. The Warriors got outscored 37-17 the rest of the way, though, and then trekked to Michigan to get destroyed, 63-3. They survived UT Martin at home, then went to Arizona and found themselves trailing 34-7 after a dead-legged first half.

At this point, it didn’t look like there was much hope of overachieving that No. 118 offseason projection. Even with easier games remaining, it looked like this brutal start was going to be too much for Rolovich’s first Hawaii team.

In the second half against Arizona, though, Rolovich made a quarterback change. Hawaii scored 21 second-half points in a 47-28 loss, and after a bye week, they won three of four, including romps over Nevada and San Jose State and a road upset of Air Force.

Dru Brown took over the offense, and the schedule let up. That was all it took for Hawaii to rebound and pull off a 17-point bowl upset of a Middle Tennessee team that had taken down Louisiana Tech and Missouri.

You’ll rarely see a .500 season that feels like more of a success than Hawaii’s. It was the combination of resilience and an increasingly competent offense, and there’s no reason to assume that either will disappear before 2017 begins.

Brown and running back Diocemy Saint Juste return to form one of the MWC’s scarier backfields, nine of the top 11 receiving targets and three starting offensive linemen return, and Hawaii again faces plenty of teams with shaky projections (six projected 105th or worse in S&P+).

Granted, a good secondary has to rebuild, and Hawaii is also given a shaky projection (109th) because of it. But if what we saw is what we’ll see from Rolovich moving forward, further overachievement is to be expected.

Rolovich was uniquely qualified for Hawaii. The former Hawaii quarterback racked up even more frequent flyer miles during a pro career that took him everywhere from Las Vegas to East Germany, and including two years as a student assistant, he had served six years as a Hawaii assistant. His stint as Nevada offensive coordinator didn’t go incredibly well, but when it came time to run his own program, he thrived.

Or at least, he has so far. The 38-year-old has a job that will never be easy. Hawaii has both a shaky budget and grand ambitions. It has to scrimp and take on ridiculous road trips, and it wants to one day be attractive enough to get a Pac-12 invitation. We can talk about how likely that is, but that’s where the school finds itself.

2016 in review

2016 Hawaii statistical profile.

Hawaii overcame a 1-3 start to win a bowl, but that feels like an oversimplification. There were lots of twists. Among other things, the Warriors had to fall off a cliff in early-November, then rebound a second time.

There are two ways to look at this. The first is chronological.

First 4 games (1-3): Avg. percentile performance: 19% (27% offense, 9% defense) | Yards per play: Opp 7.5, UH 5.6 (minus-1.9)

Next 4 games (3-1): Avg. percentile performance: 63% (70% offense, 65% defense) | Yards per play: UH 7.3, Opp 5.2 (plus-2.1)

Next 3 games (0-3): Avg. percentile performance: 16% (18% offense, 43% defense) | Yards per play: Opp 7.3, UH 4.3 (minus-3.0)

Last 3 games (3-0): Avg. percentile performance: 48% (67% offense, 39% defense | Yards per play: UH 6.6, Opp 6.0 (plus-0.6)

Hawaii was awful, then good, then awful, then solid. You can tie the middle acts to specific changes, too: Brown took over after four games, but then Diocemy Saint Juste got hurt and missed two of the three awful games.

The second way is to note most of the good opponents came during those two parts.

Hawaii vs. S&P+ top 100 (2-6): Avg. percentile performance: 26% (31% offense, 37% defense) | Yards per play: Opp 7.0, UH 5.2 (minus-1.8)

Hawaii vs. No. 101-plus (5-1): Avg. percentile performance: 52% (66% offense, 41% defense | Yards per play: UH 7.1, Opp 5.6 (plus-1.5)

Now, just about everybody produces better raw numbers against worse teams, but percentile averages are adjusted for opponent. And while the defense played at the same opponent-adjusted level against good and bad teams, the offense dominated bad teams and got dominated by good ones.

Simple opponent strength had something to do with Hawaii’s ups and downs, but the Warriors were still much better with Brown and Saint Juste in the backfield, as they’ll do in 2017.

Offense

Full advanced stats glossary.

Rolovich brought another former Hawaii player to lead his offense. Brian Smith was Rolovich’s center at the turn of the century and served under Greg McMackin on the Islands from 2008-11. Ups and downs aside, Hawaii’s offense improved dramatically in Smith’s first year.

Off. S&P+ ranking: from 119th in 2015 to 74th in 2016

Rushing S&P+: from 109th to 61st

Passing S&P+: from 112th to 62nd

Standard Downs S&P+: from 117th to 46th

Passing Downs S&P+: from 106th to 93rd

Points per scoring opportunity: from 77th to 11th

Hawaii did an infinitely better job of staying on schedule and turning chances into points, and while the Warriors didn’t have much to offer the better teams on the schedule, well, they’re not in the Pac-12 just yet. There are plenty of iffy defenses to feast on in 2017.

Brown is a huge reason why. Even with the early-November funk, Brown combined a 62 percent completion rate with 6.5 yards per carry. His raw stats put him in the 83rd percentile among dual-threat quarterbacks, and if he had started the whole year, he would have ended up with something like 3,300 passing yards and 600 non-sack rushing yards.

Saint Juste’s junior season was ridiculously up-and-down — in 12 games, he averaged at least 6.8 yards per carry five times and 4.3 or lower five times — but he finished strong, rushing 39 times for 292 yards against UMass and MTSU. He’s a powerful runner for his stature (5’8, 195 pounds), and among the 79 FBS backs with at least 165 carries last year, he was one of only 13 to combine a 41 percent opportunity rate with an average of at least 6 highlight yards per opportunity. (Translation: he was both efficient and explosive.) His season averages in those categories were nearly identical to those of Stanford’s Christian McCaffrey, albeit against a lesser schedule.

And he’s got an exciting backup in mid-three-star redshirt freshman Freddie Holly III.

Photo by Mike McGinnis/Getty Images

Diocemy Saint Juste

Most of last year’s supporting cast returns, though the primary loss is a big one. Receiver Marcus Kemp’s production trailed off (yards per catch: 17.5 through eight games, 9.7 thereafter), but he still finished with 1,100 yards at 9.2 per target. Only one other player had more than 351 yards, and among players with at least 20 targets, no others averaged better than 8.2 yards per target.

It’s hard to know where the big catches will come from without Kemp. Ammon Barker averaged 14.1 yards per catch, and tight end Metuisela `Unga averaged 15.1, but they combined for just 27 receptions.

That said, efficiency shouldn’t be an issue. Slot receivers John Ursua and Dylan Collie each produced a success rate over 50 percent, and ‘Unga was at 65 percent. And the return of Devan Stubblefield and Isaiah Bernard won’t hurt. The duo combined for 51 receptions and five touchdowns in 2015 but missed last season.

Big plays are cheat codes — you don’t have to make as many efficient plays in a row if you’re eating up bigger chunks — and it’s not evident that Hawaii will have any big-play guys outside of Saint Juste. But the possession options are obvious, and a line that returns all-conference tackle Dejon Allen and three others with starting experience should do its part. It would surprise me if this offense doesn’t exceed its No. 76 projection.

Casey Sapio-USA TODAY Sports

John Ursua

Defense

Rolovich hired four-decade veteran Kevin Lempa to lead his defense, and after a woeful start, the Warriors rounded into form a bit. This was never a dominant unit, but Hawaii was able to corral lesser offenses. And the job the defense did against a dangerous MTSU was impressive.

Lempa left in February, however, to join former boss Don Brown, Michigan’s defensive coordinator, as an analyst. Into Lempa’s office moved line coach Legi Suiaunoa.

Last year’s Hawaii defense wanted to be aggressive and was good at it at times; the Warriors ranked 54th in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line) and 30th in linebacker havoc rate. And after a miserable start, the pass defense showed signs of disruption. Over the final 10 games, Hawaii cut its completion rate allowed from 68.6 percent to 59.9 and its passer rating allowed from 169 to 140.6. These aren’t great numbers, but they were tolerable.

Suiaunoa’s first defense has some turnover. Only three linemen finished with more than 18 tackles last year, and two are gone. And perhaps more damaging, four of last year’s top six tacklers in the secondary have to be replaced. The return of injured safety Daniel Lewis Jr. will mitigate that a bit, but turnover in the secondary is especially correlated to regression.

Still, if you could choose any two players to bring back, you would have almost certainly go with middle linebacker Jahlani Tavai (19.5 tackles for loss) and safety Trayvon Henderson (10.5 tackles for loss, 10 passes defensed). Tavai was 14th in the country in TFLs, and Henderson was one of only four players with double-digit TFLs and PDs. The other three: Clemson’s Christian Wilkins, Oklahoma’s Jordan Evans, and WKU’s Keith Brown. Good company, that.

Casey Sapio-USA TODAY Sports

Trayvon Henderson

Tavai and Henderson return, as do linebackers Malachi Mageo and Russell Williams Jr. and end Meffy Koloamatangi, who led the line in TFLs and sacks. The disruptive pieces return, even if the depth does not.

I’m intrigued by some potential new players up front — for instance, mid-three-star JUCO end Jamie Tago, sophomore end Kaimana Padello, or wonderfully named three-star freshman tackle Blessman Ta’ala. If two are able to contribute, and sophomore tackles Samiuela Akoteu and Viane Moala step forward, the line could improve.

The biggest issue, then, could be cornerback. Hawaii basically played only three last year, and two (Jalen Rogers and Jamal Mayo) are gone. Rojesterman Farris II had one interception and three breakups as a freshman, and Lewis could slot in at corner if he needs to, but the known quantities are minimal.

If the defense improves, recruiting might be to thank. Per the 247Sports Composite, Rolovich has signed 17 three-stars over the last two classes, and if exciting three-stars like defensive backs Mykal Toliver and Donovan Dalton, linebacker Paul Scott, and linemen Ta’ala, Maxwell Hendrie, and Anthony Mermea are able to carve out niches, the depth and potential rise. Toliver and Hendrie have already been through redshirt seasons, so perhaps they are the most likely.

Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Jahlani Tavai (31) and Zeno Choi (99)

Special Teams

Hawaii got a boost from special teams last year; the Warriors ranked fifth in field goal efficiency and 16th in punt efficiency, which powered a No. 7 overall ranking in Special Teams S&P+.

The bad news: Rigoberto Sanchez was both the place-kicker and punter. He was also a senior. John Ursua was semi-efficient as a punt returner, but he is now, by default, the most proven entity in the special teams unit. Consider this a reset.

2017 outlook

2017 Schedule & Projection Factors

Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 26-Aug at Massachusetts 111 -2.1 45% 2-Sep Western Carolina NR 20.8 89% 9-Sep at UCLA 34 -21.4 11% 23-Sep at Wyoming 80 -10.0 28% 30-Sep Colorado State 43 -14.2 21% 7-Oct at Nevada 117 -1.0 48% 14-Oct San Jose State 105 1.8 54% 28-Oct San Diego State 52 -12.9 23% 4-Nov at UNLV 118 -0.8 48% 11-Nov Fresno State 115 3.7 58% 18-Nov at Utah State 73 -12.2 24% 25-Nov BYU 46 -13.8 21%

Projected S&P+ Rk 109 Proj. Off. / Def. Rk 76 / 118 Projected wins 4.7 Five-Year S&P+ Rk -6.6 (97) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 120 / 122 2016 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* -8 / -11.6 2016 TO Luck/Game +1.3 Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 60% (64%, 56%) 2016 Second-order wins (difference) 6.7 (0.3)

This isn’t the first time I’ve written this in a MWC team preview this year, but I’m excited about this offense. Hawaii boasts an awesome backfield, a proven line, and a receiving corps that has depth and efficiency, if not play-making ability. Despite not starting Brown for the first four games, the Warriors ended up 74th in Off. S&P+, and I see improvement on the way.

If Rolovich and the Warriors are to back up last year’s seven-win season, though, it’s on the defense. Hawaii is projected 118th in Def. S&P+, and while I do think newcomers up front should prevent the Warriors from being quite that bad, the secondary has question marks.

The schedule also provides its own issues, and I’m not even talking about travel. While there are six iffy teams on the schedule, there are also five teams projected 73rd or better. Hawaii got manhandled most of the time by teams that decent in 2016. And with a win probability of 28 percent or worse in six games, the Warriors might have to sweep all of the more winnable games to bowl again.

Even if there’s a bit of a setback, Rolovich has already proved his recruiting and in-season management. There is energy here, and while Saint Juste and Trayvon Henderson are seniors, most of the other pieces will return in 2018.

Last year generated true football excitement in Honolulu for the first time in a while, and there’s reason to believe it will continue.

Team preview stats

All preview data to date.