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Post Draft Fantasy Talk

By The Hudsonian, Joshua Hudson

Technology sucks.

I’m writing this article because there was a huge event that took place last week that got everyone in the football world talking. Everyone wants to know which incoming rookies will be most likely to help their fantasy teams in the coming season.

The Commish and I decided the bulk of the talk belonged in our weekly podcast.

Then technology decided to flip me the bird.

All that hard work, all the insightful fantasy analysis -- all of it, gone. Just like that.

Sigh.

So instead of listening to us, I guess you’ll have to settle for reading opinions. Not as fun, I know, but we all make sacrifices. Don’t worry. Things will be back on track next week.

How about that fantasy insight then?

Jaguars D/ST could be a unit to watch.

Yes, we’re aware of all the money they spent on free agents – Malik Jackson anyone? – but what they also did was snag 2 of the 5 best players in this draft with their first two picks, both capable of helping the defensive unit right away. Can they create enough turnovers? Time will tell. Every year there are several defenses that make the leap from off the radar to on it. Don’t say I didn’t warn you.

The Ravens select RB Kenneth Dixon in round 4.

Incumbent Justin Forsett is 31. Their depth was hit by a rash of injuries and were forced to rely on rookie Buck Allen for the latter half of the season. While serviceable, his talent isn’t on the same level as Dixon. If he doesn’t start the season as the starter, snag him late and thank me later as you’re marching towards your league’s fantasy playoffs.

The Bears add RB Jordan Howard in round 5.

Is Jeremy Langford no longer the lead dog in Chicago? They did pursue C.J. Anderson in the offseason, so maybe he’s not the bell cow fantasy players were hoping for. The good news though? Langford is a great pass catcher out of the backfield. In PPR leagues, he’s still likely a 4th round pick. But buyer beware of the likely timeshare/TD vulture that lurks in the form of Howard.

The Bengals get their #2 WR in Tyler Boyd.

It’s like the Bengals front office listened to our podcast last week. That makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside. Boyd is likely to make an impression on fantasy teams. He’ll be streaky, much like the man he’s replacing, Mohammed Sanu, was, but A.J. Green needs all the help he can get. A few solid games from Boyd takes pressure off Green, freeing him up to do what he does best.

The Titans may not like DeMarco Murray as much as Skrip Club Radio does.

Derrick Henry in the 2nd round? You’re killing us, Titans. Murray will be much more valuable in PPR formats like the Skrip Club, but Henry will get work and he will score TDs. Murray is likely more of a 2nd/3rd round pick, while Henry is a clear handcuff option. And likely a very valuable one.

Josh Doctson lands in Washington, but likely won’t take off until Year 2.

DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon are still 1 and 2 on the depth chart, but both are free agents after the season. Doctson will have typical rookie wide receiver production, i.e. unstartable, barring injury. But his value skyrockets as a draft and stash. He’ll be the best wide receiver to come out of this class.

The Houston Texans are building a track team in Houston.

The Olympics are this summer right? The Texans must think they’re in contention for gold. Alas, they’ll settle for having one of the most intriguing offenses entering this season. Adding speed demon Will Fuller opposite DeAndre Hopkins should help free up the latter for even bigger games this upcoming season. Throw in slot man Braxton Miller to go along with newly acquired RB Lamar Miller and QB Brock Osweiler has no excuses to not be a fantasy sensation this season. I would not be opposed to drafting Osweiler as a backup just to see if he fulfills the potential. The payoff could be HUGE.

RB Jay Ajayi is the man in Miami.

They drafted arguably the best offensive lineman in the draft, as well as a change-of-pace back Kenyan Drake instead of a true 3-down guy. This should mean good things for Ajayi. He’s likely to be overvalued simply because of his status as “the man,” but if you can snag him in the 4th or 5th, I think it’s a worth while gamble as a high upside RB2. Drake, meanwhile, has big upside as a PPR guy. I likely wouldn’t draft him before the 9th round, but he could be valuable depth in a Charles Sims like role for Miami.

Is Sterling Shepard the next Victor Cruz?

A certain obnoxiously vocal personality came out and said Shepard is better than Odell Beckham Jr. Um, sure. But he has great hands, runs good routes and was extremely productive in college. Because his head coach loves 3 WR sets more than any other coach in the league, I’m expecting a productive rookie season from Shpeard. He’s on my FLEX radar as a WR 4 to start the season, but he has top 30 upside. Side note: 5th round pick Paul Perkins has the skill set to emerge from the Giants backfield as the top dog. If he’s not named a starter out of camp, draft and stash for fantasy goodness come playoff time.

The Seahawks add 3 RBs in the draft. Should Thomas Rawls be sweating?

I would move him down just a tick. Prosise is likely to handle 3rd down duties as he has great hands for a running back. The Seahawks may be transitioning their offense to incorporate more passing in the wake of Beast Mode’s retirement. Rawls can still be a valuable piece, but his value does take a hit in PPR formats. Monitor Prosise’s work in camp and the preseason because he could be a weapon as an occasional FLEX play.

The Bills added some new toys to Rex Ryan’s defense.

And boy, did they need to. A consensus top 12 defense last year, they were a shell of themselves. Ryan added pass rusher Shaq Lawson and ILB Reggie Ragland to bring his unit back to respectability. I’m not putting the top 12 stamp on them just yet, but like the Jaguars, I’m keeping an eye on them.

Andrew Luck has a few new bodyguards.

They drafted not one, not two, not three, but FOUR new offensive linemen. Andrew Luck is praising the football Gods for knocking some sense into his front office. New center Ryan Kelly becomes the anchor for this line and he’s likely to have an immediate impact for them. This helps every single skill position player on this offense. Luck reclaims his spot amongst the top 5 QBs in fantasy; Gore remains a top 20 play at RB and is an easy RB2; WRs T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief are top 15 and top 25 respectively; and TE Dwayne Allen, barring injury, is a top 10 option. Lots to love with this offense if those linemen can help Kelly keep Luck off his ass.

Matt Ryan has a new toy.

We know he misses TE Tony Gonzalez. The front office could tell so they drafted Stanford standout Austin Hooper. He can help secure the middle of the field with breakout RB Devonta Freeman while Julio Jones looks to break the single season record for receiving yards in a season. Top 15 status for TE Hooper.

Will Paxton Lynch overtake Mark Sanchez to start week one for the Broncos?

I’m not buying into it. The Broncos showed last year they have a defense capable of carrying a team with a game manager at quarterback. If Sanchez can limit the turnovers, they’ll continue to win games and Lynch won’t see the field. Dynasty pick only for Lynch. The Broncos D/ST however is likely to be over-drafted as the first defense off the board. Get the smack talk ready for the owner that pulls the trigger in the 9th round!

Jared Goff is the Rams opening day starter.

Get ready for a long season kid! Gurley will see a lot of 8 man fronts until Goff shows he can beat a defense. He’s still a top 3 RB, but Goff shouldn’t even be drafted. Dynasty stash only.

I told you the Saints would draft a WR.

Say hello to Marques Colston 2.0! Michael Thomas is likely to make an immediate impact opposite Brandin Cooks. Occasional FLEX play but his season will likely be carried by touchdown catches. Not that fantasy owners will complain about that!

Will Christian Hackenberg be starting for the Jets come week 1?

Ryan Fitzpatrick, fantasy owners everywhere need you to sign that contract! We want to own Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker and Matt Forte. If you don’t sign, we’re not likely as comfortable owning them. That just hurts your teammates’ feelings. Don’t hurt your teammates’ feelings Ryan!

Antonio Gates is the Dick Clark of football.

The man never ages. As such, he’s not likely to ever retire. Newly drafted TE Hunter Henry is now the new Ladarius Green. If you want to wait on Gates to get hurt or retire, draft away. I’ll pass, thanks.

Laquon Treadwell’s arrival is better for Adrian Peterson than is it for Laquon Treadwell.

Treadwell is the best blocking WR to come out of this draft. When you have Adrian Peterson running the football, that’s a good thing. This helps solidify Peterson’s status as a top 3 RB in fantasy this year. Treadwell will have an up and down rookie season, but it might be a solid decision to draft him late and keep him for next year, especially in a PPR league. Lots of Jarvis Landry potential here as an underneath option for QB Teddy Bridgewater.

Corey Coleman was the first WR drafted last weekend. Are you drafting him in fantasy?

Yes, yes I am. Will he be the next OBJ? Not likely. But what do we love about wide receivers in fantasy? Targets. Who else are Browns QBs going to throw it to? Coleman has WR3 value. 6th or 7th round pick is not a reach.

Ezekiel Elliott will be a top 5 fantasy RB behind the Cowboys offensive line.

Write that down. In pen. Non-erasable pen. The Offensive Rookie of the Year. Hudsonian out.

[japharii]

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[clubfantasyfootball]

NFL Mock Draft with a Side of Fantasy Implications Part 1

By The Hudsonian, Joshua Hudson

‘Tis the season, folks.

The time of year when every prognosticator from every sports website puts in their non-refundable two cents on who they think will be selected by whom in this month’s NFL Draft.

So why should we be any different?

Of course, you’re not reading this because you want to know who I think will go where. No, you want to know who will go where and how they’ll help your fantasy team next year or possibly for years to come. I know, reading minds is sort of a gift of mine.

I’m going to go through the entire 1st round and give my predictions on which players will be selected where. No, I will not predict trades. That seems pointless to me. But what I will do is give you reasons why I like said player on said team, but also how I feel they can impact your fantasy team this year or next, or if you’re a baller and play in a dynasty league, how it can help your team for years to come.

What about defensive players you ask? Well, some play in IDP leagues -- Individual Defensive Player leagues if you didn’t know -- so there’s that. If you’re skeptical, just look at CB Marcus Peters from last year’s draft. A 1st round pick of the Kansas City Chiefs, he snagged eight interceptions last year. You don’t think that helps out the Chiefs D/ST?

This is now my 3rd attempt to do this mock. First, the Rams trade up with the Titans. Then the Eagles trade up to two in a swap of firsts, and then some, with the Browns. Can I get a mock draft in before the Chargers deal the third pick? Pretty please?

So how about those picks?

The Los Angeles Rams select QB Jared Goff

You don’t think the Rams traded up to select someone other than a QB did you? Aw, your naiveté is so cute. Many will say Carson Wentz will go here, and up until recent reports came out that the Rams were leaning towards selecting Goff, I still thought it would be Goff. A California kid, a team in a new city -- Los Angeles to be exact -- and a solid team with no leader to speak of. Just feels like a Hollywood story in the making doesn’t it?

Fantasy Implications: Not likely any this year. I know the past few years have seen some pretty solid rookie QBs come out of the gate slinging and putting up some decent numbers for fantasy teams. But the position is deep and Goff just doesn’t feel like that kind of player to me. I think he will have more of a learning curve, maybe even enough to warrant the Rams starting the season with Case Keenum as their QB. He feels more like a dynasty league pick to me, one that will emerge to help your fantasy squad in year 3 and 4 more so than year 2.

The Philadelphia Eagles select QB Carson Wentz

First, they guarantee Sam Bradford $22 million in a two-year contract. Then they hand Chase DAniel $12 million guaranteed to back up Bradford. How many quarterbacks does one team need? Apparently one more. In another stunning trade, the Eagles move up to two in a swap with the Browns. They now are in like to their quarterback of the future. If the Rams select Goff, Wentz becomes their guy. As an Eagles fan, and after a few shots, I can finally say -- I’m on board. Now excuse me while I go vomit.

Fantasy Implications: Same as Goff, not likely this year. Wentz was hurt the majority of last year, and for someone that needs to get up to speed on the pro game coming from an FCS school, he may have an even steeper learning curve than Goff. The Eagles don’t need Wentz this year, and maybe not even next year. Dynasty leagues only. And if the Eagles find a new running back in the time before he takes over, watch out. He could be really good.

The San Diego Chargers select LT Laremy Tunsil

I know Jalen Ramsey is a tempting pick here, but when the most important person on your team -- in this case, QB Phillip Rivers -- spends most of his games getting knocked on his ass, you take a player that can help keep him upright. Personally, I would rather have LT Ronnie Stanley, and with new reports coming out that the Chargers are open to trading the third pick, it may be that they themselves aren’t high on Tunsil. Still, quarterbacks get you to title games, not defensive backs. Protecting your quarterback gives you a better chance of getting there.

Fantasy Implications: Much more immediate impact than the 2 QBs. You’re likely not getting points for sacks prevented or pancake blocks -- but if you are, kudos to you -- but he affects everyone around him. If his play stacks up from day one, RB Melvin Gordon now has running room, RB Danny Woodhead can catch more passes, and River has time to find WRs Keenan Allen and Travis Benjamin down the field. So far, the most impactful pick of the draft.

The Dallas Cowboys select RB Ezekiel Elliott

I hated typing every word of that. As an Eagles fan, I despise the Cowboys. As a UM fan, I really despise the Buckeyes of Ohio State. But with the Eagles moving up to get their QB of the future, I think the Cowboys may feel a sense of “now is our time.” Yes, Romo was hurt last year, but it was pretty clear they missed DeMarco Murray. Taking the best running back in the draft will make that offense near unstoppable with a healthy Romo and a healthy Dez Bryant. They can now use every remaining draft pick on the defensive side of the ball.

Fantasy Implications: Rookie of the Year. A solid second round draft pick. If you’re in a keeper league, a likely first rounder. Write that down.

The Jacksonville Jaguars select DB Jalen Ramsey

You know you’re about to have yourself a good season when the best player in the draft falls in your lap. They made strides on offense last year so fixing their defense becomes priority number one. Plugging in Ramsey and essentially Dante Fowler Jr.’s rookie season helps tremendously.

Fantasy Implications: The Jaguars defense could be slowly creeping towards respectability. Ramsey could be a surprise as an IDP play, but a lot will depend on if they line him up at corner or safety.

The Baltimore Ravens select LT Ronnie Stanley

With Terrell Suggs coming off his second torn Achilles, I can see the appeal of taking a defensive end like Bosa or Buckner as the heir apparent. But I am not enamored with this group of defensive ends. Yes, the position is deep with quantity, but to me it lacks valuable quality. They have invested a ton of money in QB Joe Flacco and they need to protect him. It’s not often the Ravens are selecting this high and they need to hit a home run with this pick. Anyone remember what Jonathan Ogden did for the Ravens? Meet Ogden 2.0. The easiest pick in the draft.

Fantasy Implications: Similar to what Tunsil can bring to the Chargers, Stanley can step right onto the left side of the line and be a force. His forte is pass blocking, so he will undoubtedly be Flacco’s new best friend. Later on in the draft, they can look to find a compliment to RB Buck Allen, who was not unspectacular last season in replacing Justin Forsett.

The San Francisco 49ers select DE DeForest Buckner

I mean, you didn’t see this coming? An Oregon Duck becomes available for the King of the Ducks to draft? It’s almost poetic. If Buckner is available here, we will undoubtedly see how much pull HC Chip Kelly has within the 49ers organization. The 49ers may be looking to trade down to accumulate more picks to rebuild the team and be in a position to get value for the next best QB, Paxton Lynch, or even Laquon Treadwell; he seems like a Chip Kelly style receiver. But if they stay here, Buckner is an easy pick as someone who’s familiar with the coach and practice schedule, and someone who can help that defense right away.

Fantasy Implications: I am going to go out on a limb and say none. He might be the best player on that front line upon being drafted, so he’s likely to see the occasional double team as a result. He may struggle to pick up the sack numbers you want right away, but he has a motor that doesn’t quit. It will bode well for future fantasy campaigns.

The Cleveland Browns select WR Laquon Treadwell

So they’re running with Robert Griffin III. If you think he’s going to succeed this year with no talent around him, I want a hit of what you’re smoking. This is crazy early for a wide receiver with better players still available. Maybe the Browns look to trade back again to get more picks and better value. But you need playmakers and I think Myles Jack’s knee is uncertain enough to scare teams in the top 10.

Fantasy Implications: Not this year. A dynasty pick for sure. RGIII needs a least one reliable target. Treadwell could be a number four wide receiver for fantasy this year just because he’s not shy about going up to get the football. A quarterback will need that kind of assurance when the line in front of him could easily be better.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers select LT Jack Conklin

I think they want to help the defense. But it may be too early for Vernon Hargreaves III with a lot of concerns about his height and broad jump. Do the Bucs still bite? Their offensive like overachieved last year, so a small regression could be in order. That could be mitigated by adding a talent like Conklin.

Fantasy Implications: Anything that gives Jameis Winston more time to throw the ball to Mike Evans is a boon for fantasy owners. Winston, in a position as deep as quarterback, could crack the top 12. Maybe Jillian as onto something.

The New York Giants select DE Joey Bosa

You knew he’d eventually find a home, right? Everyone knows the Giants need more depth on their offensive line, but Conklin was just selected. But remember when the Giants were beating Tom Brady and the Patriots and winning those Super Bowls? Yeah, me too. I always remember when Tom Brady gets beat. Anyway, what they had was a relentless pass rush. They had three legitimate threats in Michael Strahan, Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck, and then Umenyiora, Tuck and Jason Pierre-Paul. Pierre-Paul is still there, and they just gave Olivier Vernon more cash than Trump needs to build his wall. Add in Bosa, someone with a Hemi for a motor and you have the makings of a ferocious defensive line. I think this is the perfect home for Bosa, one where he won’t have to be the man, where he can be a complimentary piece and just asked, at least right away, to get after the QB. If he lands in New York with the Giants, it pains me to say this, but he’s likely to win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year award. 

Fantasy Implications: If all breaks right, he could be a solid IDP play. He wouldn’t be a starter, more of a situational pass rusher. But remember what that did for Aldon Smith some time ago? Could also help the Giants D/ST be a solid streaming play. They don’t have an overly difficult schedule this year, playing the AFC North and NFL North, plus a 3rd place schedule to boot. Keep an eye on them.

Stay tuned for part two, covering picks 11-21.

[japharii]

Tonight we 🔥🔥🔥 catch me hosting at #LiqiidBlue ... My BRUH /G\ DJ Stacy on the 1's & 2's .. O.g. Dadi Cage running the show .. Special capricorns birthday celebration ... lets keep it a #MYSTERY ... Because you ALREADY KNOW! .. 606 Dresden Dr , Newport News ... Let's have a time. $5 #longislands & #bluemotorcycles ALL NIGHT! #SnapChat JaPharii757 for the play #SnapMe #sKripClub #Party #PartyRadar #757 #HU #ODU #CNU (at Liquid Blue Gentelmans Club)

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Don’t Hold Your Lucking Breath

By The Commish

“With the first pick in the 2015 Skrip Club fantasy football draft, I select Jameis Winston, quarterback, Tampa Bay Buccaneers.”

The rest of the league’s reaction when Jillian proudly proclaimed the above probably mirrors yours right now. Laughter, mockery and shock filled the air and Josh, the co-host of the Skrip Club podcast (you can listen to our podcast here) pounced and scooped up Adrian Peterson with the second overall pick. It took about a round for the rest of us to recover and Jillian became the butt of many jokes.

During the season, Jillian quickly realized she couldn’t start Jameis and win it all. So she subbed in Carson Palmer and squeaked into the playoffs as the #5 seed. Three victories later, she was the champion of the Skrip Club, delivering the unlikeliest and luckiest season in our league’s history.

Yes. Jillian drafted Jameis Winston first overall and won the whole damn thing.

How many times have you pointed to others’ fantasy football success and howled about how lucky he or she got? How many times have you moaned to yourself and anyone who will listen that you have awful luck in fantasy football? I feel your pain. And I’ve found a way to twist the dagger, if you’re into self-tourture.

I’ve kept records of every players’ career stats in the Skrip Club – their win/loss records, playoff appearances, total points scored, points scored against… you name it, I’ve got it recorded. In addition to providing a kick-ass written history of the league, it also helps us understand patterns and highlights players’ skill and luck, or lack thereof.

In our first podcast (seriously, check it out here) I warned listeners not to take my advice on which players to draft because I’ve never won the league. Examining my historical performance in the chart below, however, shows that not only am I not giving myself enough credit, it confirms what I’ve been saying for years: fantasy football is 95% luck, 5% skill, and I have the worst luck in the Skrip Club.

Case in point – I’ve scored more total regular season points in the Skrip Club’s nine seasons than anyone else. Josh is second in points scored and he’s still 555.34 points behind me. That means I score, on average, 61.70 more points per season or 4.75 points per week higher than the next highest scorer.

I know, I know. What the hell does it matter how many points you score in the regular season if you can’t win in the playoffs? You’re absolutely right. But you have to actually MAKE the playoffs to WIN in the playoffs. And it’s really hard to make the playoffs when you have the most points scored against you over nine seasons. Just ask ME.

What happens when you have the most total points scored against you? You miss the playoffs more than half the time. You watch as people like Josh get lucky by having the 7th most points scored against him. You watch as historically low scorers like Sean win it all.

And you watch as you put together a 12-1 regular season, only to be bounced in the first round of the playoffs – with both losses coming from someone who drafted Jameis Winston first overall.

My advice to you to make your league more fun? Keep track of past seasons and share it with your league. Then you’ll truly be able to pinpoint who truly knows their shit and whose luck is made of it.

*Averaged Points for seven season of play and added to total

**Combined and averaged individual season after team merger in 2015

***This chart only includes 10 teams because two owners were replaced in 2015, thus only compiling stats for one season***