#politicrap

[amethystsadachbia]

yeah this isn't wholesome it's evidence of a capitalist hellscape

[amethystsadachbia]

Abstainers, you did this.

[cringywhitedragon]

Just going to put this out there before I go to bed, Grab your umbrellas folks because tomorrow (today)’s likely going to be a shitshow regardless of who gets picked for President

Since it is an election year, do be aware that there are going to be a lot of reaction posts depending on who gets picked and finalized as our next president.

I’m going to be going no poltical posts (viewing or reading) for this whole week for that reason.

Ya’ll have a good night and if you need to, cut it out for a while.

[dustygnome]

OK, finally beat the Phone Anxiety Boss to call my senators and representative. (5calls.org is helpful.) The representative is a full-blown Trump supporter, so with him I’m trying to take the angle that, actually, these efforts to “protect America” are making me feel less safe.

[kingofmy-delicate-heart]

Dear @staff

How come after 6 years of being on this site i still can't get my icons and background pics to save??? I'm having trouble with @politicrap-usa . When i go to it my icon is there but not my backg, and when i see my posts from that blog the icon dsnt show up next to the post. And when i go to redo the icon and backg they are both there. But when i hit save they disappear as I've told you above. I'm frustrated.

@staff @staff @staff @staff @staff @staff

Also, users can't dm @staff , right? They'd get too many messages. @staff @staff

[theliberaltony]

via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

March came in like a lion; will it go out with a Lamb? Voters in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District will decide that on Tuesday as they vote in the first of many federal elections in 2018. Like in previous races for Georgia’s 6th Congressional District and Alabama’s U.S. Senate seat, the party that wins the Pennsylvania special election will be said to have the momentum heading into the pivotal midterm elections later this year. In our view, that’s a bit overblown — in reality, it’s the margin of victory that tells us what to expect in midterm results, and Democrat Conor Lamb is likely to overperform in Pennsylvania no matter who wins. We will still be watching that margin closely, though, and a decisive victory by Republican Rick Saccone could be a sign that that something in the political environment has changed. So here’s what you need to know to follow the race.

1. The partisanship

This seat became vacant in October 2017 after the resignation of GOP Rep. Tim Murphy, who admitted to an extramarital affair and allegedly asked his mistress to have an abortion despite his stated pro-life views. Before the scandal, the Republican had won eight consecutive elections in this district1 by margins of no fewer than 15 percentage points. In both 2014 and 2016, no Democrat even bothered to run against Murphy. President Trump carried the 18th District by nearly 20 points (58 percent to 39 percent); Mitt Romney won it by a similar margin in 2012. According to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average of presidential results,2 the Pennsylvania 18th is 21 percentage points more Republican-leaning than the nation as a whole.

That’s very red — but so were most of the other places where we’ve seen special elections so far this cycle, and Democrats in the vast majority of those races have consistently done better than the partisan leans of their districts would predict. The margin in federal special elections specifically has moved 16 points toward Democrats compared to each constituency’s usual partisan lean. If that happens again in Pennsylvania, Democrats will be nipping at Republicans’ heels.

How will Dems perform in Pennsylvania’s 18th district?

Special elections this cycle, by the constituency’s partisan lean* and final vote margin

Year Date Seat Partisan Lean Vote margin Dem. Swing 2017 April 4 California 34th† D+69 D+87 +18 April 11 Kansas 4th R+29 R+6 +23 May 25 Montana At-Large R+21 R+6 +16 June 20 Georgia 6th R+9 R+4 +6 June 20 South Carolina 5th R+19 R+3 +16 Nov. 7 Utah 3rd R+35 R+32 +3 Dec. 12 Alabama U.S. Senate R+29 D+2 +31 2018 March 13 Pennsylvania 18th R+21 ? ?

* The average difference between how the constituency voted and how the country voted overall in the last two presidential elections, with 2016 weighted 75 percent and 2012 weighted 25 percent.

† Primary results used because both general-election candidates were from the same party. Primary included multiple Democratic candidates, and results show vote share for all Democratic candidates combined.

Source: Daily Kos Elections, secretaries of state

But there’s reason to believe the swing in Pennsylvania could be even greater. First, in special elections for Pennsylvania state legislative offices this cycle, Democrats have outperformed expectations to an even greater degree: a 29-point shift in the margin. Second, the Pennsylvania 18th is actually ancestrally Democratic. Before Murphy was elected in 2002, the area3 was represented by Democrat Frank Mascara, who opposed abortion and gun control and projected a blue-collar image. That legacy lingers today in the fact that there are still more registered Democrats in the district than registered Republicans (46 percent of registered voters to 41 percent). Even though they’ve grown accustomed to voting Republican for president, voters in the 18th clearly aren’t opposed to casting a ballot for Democrats under the right circumstances. For example, the area currently within the 18th Congressional District voted for Sen. Bob Casey, who also campaigned as a pro-life, pro-gun Democrat, by 11 points in 2006.

2. The players

And lo and behold, Lamb fits the same socially-conservative-Democrat mold. A 33-year-old former federal prosecutor and Marine, Lamb says he is personally opposed to abortion4 and opposes new gun control laws. His GOP opponent Saccone, meanwhile, is a four-term state representative who brags he “was Trump before Trump was Trump.” Saccone is known as a rock-ribbed conservative but not as a strong fundraiser: He has raised almost $920,000 for the race and claimed just over $300,000 cash on hand as of Feb. 21. By contrast, Lamb has raked in $3.9 million and was sitting on a nearly $840,000 war chest.

Saccone won’t lack for resources, however, thanks to the GOP cavalry. As of Friday, independent-expenditure groups, including the Congressional Leadership Fund and National Republican Congressional Committee, had spent almost $10.5 million to prop up Saccone; Democratic outside groups had put in just $1.8 million. Even with Lamb’s $3.1 million in spending, liberal forces are being heavily outspent. The Democratic dollars are going farther, however, because candidates benefit from lower TV advertising rates than outside groups do. As of the beginning of March, 42 percent of broadcast TV ads aired so far were pro-Lamb, while 58 percent were pro-Saccone.

3. The polling

Four pollsters5 have surveyed the Pennsylvania 18th in the past month, and they all agree that the race is within the margin of error. Here are the latest numbers:

Latest polls of the Pennsylvania 18th special election

Dates Pollster 538 Pollster Rating Lamb Saccone Mar. 6–8 RABA Research C+ 48% 44% Mar. 1–5 Gravis Marketing B- 42 45 Mar. 1–3 Emerson College B 48 45 Feb. 12–14 Monmouth University A+ 46 49 Average 46 46

The two candidates are essentially tied in the average of the polls (although, for what it’s worth, Monmouth, the only FiveThirtyEight gold-standard pollster6 to look at the race, has Saccone ahead by 3 points7). However, despite the fact that the polls show a tight race, even a runaway win by one of these candidates wouldn’t be that much of a shocker. Polls of U.S. House races already carry a lot of uncertainty, and they’re even less reliable for special elections. Since 2004, polls taken within three weeks of a special House election have missed the final result by an average of 5 percentage points, and their true margin of error was 13 percentage points in either direction.

4. The political geography

Taking in coal mines, covered bridges, wealthy suburbs and lush state parks, the Pennsylvania 18th stretches from Pennsylvania’s southwest corner up north past Pittsburgh International Airport to the Ohio River, then cuts east across the Monongahela River to the Laurel Highlands. It encompasses parts of four counties: Allegheny (home to 43 percent of the district’s voters, based on 2016 presidential results), Westmoreland (33 percent), Washington (22 percent) and Greene (2 percent).

The 18th District’s slice of Allegheny County consists of Pittsburgh’s southwestern suburbs and is a swing region — Democrats typically find most of their votes here. The other three counties, more rural and far-flung, are normally Republican strongholds, although they have strong historical ties to organized labor, a traditionally Democratic constituency.

If you’re watching the special election results as they come in (polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern), pay attention to these county-by-county variations; they can help you project the ultimate winner. Assuming that the whole district shifts left or right uniformly (more on this in a second), we’ve calculated an approximate benchmark for how we would expect each county to vote if the election were exactly tied districtwide. If the counties are voting more Republican than their benchmarks, then Saccone is on pace to win. If they’re voting more Democratic, then Lamb is ahead. (The not-so-grisly math behind these benchmarks: We used the same weighted average of the last two presidential elections to arrive at a partisan lean for each county, then moved it 21 points in Democrats’ direction — because that’s how much the entire district needs to shift leftward to deliver Lamb a victory.)

County benchmarks for Pennsylvania’s 18th District

How each county might vote if the race were tied districtwide

Presidential margin County 2016 Vote Share 2012 2016 Partisan Lean Benchmark Allegheny 43% R+8 R+4 R+7 D+14 Westmoreland 33% R+27 R+34 R+35 R+13 Washington 22% R+18 R+27 R+27 R+6 Greene 2% R+25 R+43 R+41 R+19 Total 100% R+17 R+20 R+21 EVEN

* The average difference between how the county voted and how the country voted overall in the last two presidential elections, with 2016 weighted 75 percent and 2012 weighted 25 percent.

Source: Daily Kos Elections

Granted, the district may not shift uniformly. Westmoreland, Washington and Greene all voted much more Republican with Trump on the ticket than with Romney, while Trump seemed to scare away some Romney voters in Allegheny. Lamb’s Blue Dog appeal may mean he wins over more Obama-Trump voters than Romney-Clinton voters, making the 2016 election a poor template for 2018. In such a scenario, it’s quite possible that Lamb misses the mark in Allegheny but still wins the election by overperforming in Westmoreland and Washington, so use these benchmarks with a grain of salt.

5. The aftermath

Tuesday will likely be the last time you hear about a competitive district in the Pennsylvania 18th, but whoever emerges victorious in the special will likely have to fight hard to keep his seat in the regularly scheduled November 2018 election. How can this be? Earlier this year, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court struck down the state’s current congressional map as too gerrymandered in favor of the GOP; in February, the court imposed new district lines that are friendlier to Democrats. The new map splits most of the current 18th District between the new heavily Republican 14th District and the swingier, suburban 17th District.

If Saccone wins on Tuesday, he has said that he would seek re-election in the 14th, but if Lamb wins, he is expected to go after the 17th, even though he would have to face incumbent Republican Rep. Keith Rothfus there. Of course, the loser could decide to take a second bite of the apple in either the 14th or the 17th as well. After all these long hours of campaigning and millions of dollars spent, it’s entirely possible that, at the beginning of 2019, Conor Lamb and Rick Saccone will both be members of Congress.

Both will also have to decide their next moves almost immediately after the last drink is poured at their election-night watch parties on Tuesday. The deadline to file to run in November is March 20, one week later.

[knowpgh]

Candidates in Pittsburgh City Council District 8 special election talk gun violence, PWSA and wet ... via Google Alert - "pittsburgh water and sewer authority"

[yallkilledahero]

'See, but if these were letters from muslims telling whites to clear out of their neighborhood and go back where THEY came from, the two dissenters would probably be all up in arms about it.' are you for real with this reverse racism comment please respectfully shut up

Haha! I am for real, especially since, let’s make it more realistic, I’m Apache.

If I sent around letters in Arizona telling them to either adhere to MY way of thinking, or go back to Europe/Asia/Africa/whatever continent they came from, wouldn’t that seem objectively silly?

I didn’t use the term reverse-racism, you did, I’m just kindly pointing out that if it doesn’t go both ways it’s a double-standard, and double-standards make you a hypocrite. So quit being a chicken-shit, get off anon, because you don’t get more anonymous than on a blog you made for the INTERNET.

And have a nice day.

[cardboardangel]

Butt Nuggetry

I'm not one of Obama's outspoken supporters, I never have been. But are people REALLY going to try and fight a BLACK PRESIDENT over the idea of DISCRIMINATION AND -SEGREGATION- in bathrooms?! What the hell is wrong with people? This new craze of denying trans people the decency and safety to PEE IN PEACE is one of the most ignorant, trans/homo/bi/xenophobic crazes of our century.

I really do think that Trump's running has opened the door for much louder, prouder and socially accepted displays of bigotry and intolerance. I might not have liked Obama, but at LEAST his being elected/running didn't inspire the kind of nonsense that would have MLK jr rolling so much in his grave that his corpse could join Cirque de Soleil.

Because of this stupidity, I am terrified to try and use a public bathroom ANYWHERE, no matter how badly I have to go. This sort of butt nuggetry is NOT about protecting children. It's about normalizing the right to judge people based on how they look. This is normalizing discrimination, hatred, all forms of prejudice, and it is the nail in the coffin for me about any sort of patriotism.

I am not gay, trans, or bi... but the horrendous lack of empathy shown is sickening. Several of my friends are trans, and I fear for them, their safety and their mental well being in this environment. I fear for myself, as I am an androgynous woman and all it would take is someone claiming they're concerned for THE CHILDREN to justify peeking in on me, exposing my body, touching me to verify that I am in fact using the right bathroom. What people don't seem to understand is that this only increases vulnerability for not just the people the discrimination is aimed at, but all women, all men. This gives real perverts a built in excuse for their actions. All they'd have to do is cite the law, and violating another human being is perfectly fine. The fallout from this is going to be massive. I don't see this ending in anything but a similar civil rights debacle as we saw in the 60s.

My only hope is that we do not give in to complacency and we can unite--Republican, Democrat, Independent, Black, White, Trans, Cis and all of us... to say STFU to bigotry.

(I don't completely blame Trump for this rubbish, btw. He's just made it a LOT easier for people to wear their prejudice on their sleeves.)

[amethystsadachbia]

Third-party voters, abstainers, this is your fault. Look what you fucking did.

[mikeo56]

Politifact?  More like Politifail… MIRITE?!

  This is really awful. Politifact, which is supposed to police false claims in politics, has announced its Lie of the Year — and it’s a statement that happens to be true, the claim that Republicans have voted to end Medicare.

Steve Benen in the link above explains it, but let me just repeat the basics. Republicans voted to replace Medicare with a voucher system to buy private insurance — and not just that, a voucher system in which the value of the vouchers would systematically lag the cost of health care, so that there was no guarantee that seniors would even be able to afford private insurance.

The new scheme would still be called “Medicare”, but it would bear little resemblance to the current system, which guarantees essential care to all seniors.

How is this not an end to Medicare? And given all the actual, indisputable lies out there, how on earth could saying that it is be the “Lie of the year”?

The answer is, of course, obvious: the people at Politifact are terrified of being considered partisan if they acknowledge the clear fact that there’s a lot more lying on one side of the political divide than on the other. So they’ve bent over backwards to appear “balanced” — and in the process made themselves useless and irrelevant.

And it becomes a huuge announcement for the idiots. It seems Politifact is republican as they act as if semantics obscures their lies. Politifact lies.

[amethystsadachbia]

OKAY SO Biden has the opportunity to do the funniest thing ever 🔪

[amethystsadachbia]

Today in “capitalist hellscape”

[Text ID of first image: A phone screenshot of a tweet by Rio Slade.] Tennessee is going to solve the labor shortage crisis by having high school students manufacture parts.

The school will then sell the parts/labor (to the military and others).

The students may get a scholarship.

[Text ID of second image: An excerpt from an online newspaper, the Oak Ridger.]

The Oak Ridge Board of Education has voted to purchase equipment and get grant funding to help students in Oak Ridge schools learn vocational technology skills and build parts for local companies.

[Text ID of third image: An excerpt from an online newspaper, the Oak Ridger.]

Oak Ridge Schools Superintendent Bruce Borchers and Holly Cross, supervisor of career readiness and communications, told the school board that the students won't just be learning to build items in this vocational manufacturing program. They'll be selling parts to local companies.

[End text ID]

[amethystsadachbia]

[amethystsadachbia]

I don't know who Rose McGowan, is but when Twitter suspends her for saying "fuck off" to an actor who groped another woman and doesn't do a damn thing to people sending racist/sexist/transphobic/homophobic hate speech (especially T-rump because his tweets are “””newsworthy”””), we kind of have a problem

[amethystsadachbia]