#poliscicomm

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So. The US has a speaker of the house(*). If you've seen the memes floating around for the past few days, you might find yourself wondering: how did that happen? Buckle in folks, this was a bit of a ride.

(*) for now

When we last left our... main characters, Kevin McCarthy had failed an 11th ballot to be elected speaker, down 20 Republican votes when he could afford a maximum of five defectors. The house then voted to adjourn until 12 eastern time on January 6th. Overnight, some deals happened, because for the first time since day 1 there was a significant movement in votes. Round 12 saw 14 of the representatives who had previously been defectors voted for McCarthy—not enough to give him the speakership (lmao, imagine?), but enough to prove his chances of victory weren't entirely dead. Important for later, three representatives were absent—Ken Buck (R-Colorado), Wesley Hunt (R-Texas), and David Trone (D-Maryland).

Round 13 went much the same in actual voter count, with one more of the never-Kevins peeling off to vote for McCarthy, though it was the first round in which there was not another republican candidate formally nominated. Trone came out of his voluntary surgery to vote for Hakeem Jeffries, and there was a motion to adjourn so the republican caucus could continue haggling, which passed. Setting the house up to reconvene at 10 pm eastern time, and some of the most dramatic hours we've seen in this whole glorious train wreck.

Signs suggested Kevin was feeling good—when asked why he felt confident he had the votes to clinch this, he responded "because I count." Two of the more notorious never-Kevins (Boebert and Gaetz) seemed open to negotiating. The press reported Buck and Hunt would be returning for the evening vote. A cart loaded with giant boxes of Five Guys burgers rolled into the speaker's office.

The hours pass. 10 pm rolls around, and the air is thick with anticipation. The house chaplain offers a prayer in which she suggests the gridlock may finally be over. Patrick McHenry (R-North Carolina) gives a nominating speech for McCarthy with not one but two jokes that fell extraordinarily flat, all the while wearing a bow tie.

Now, the votes for speaker are conducted as roll call votes. The poor, probably underpaid, long-suffering house clerk reads off the name of each representative in alphabetical order, then goes through a second time calling the name of any representative who didn't vote the first time. This takes... a while, but what it means is that when you know who's vote to watch, you spend a while in anticipation of that person's name being called, listening to the alphabet.

The other thing to understand, as this gets deep into the weeds, is a little more of the nuts and bolts of how the count works. The speaker of the house is elected by a majority of the votes cast—that is to say, the number of representatives-elect who vote for a name instead of not voting or voting present, divided by half, plus one.

M = [ (# reps elect - # of reps elect not voting - # of reps elect voting present)/2 ] + 1

The US House, while normally filled with 435 reps, currently has 434, due to one death. 212 of those are democrats, the remainder are republicans. If all 434 vote, the threshold for a majority is 218 (434/2, +1). If, say, two members vote present and everyone else votes, the threshold is 217.

The remaining detractors were Biggs, Boebert, Crane, Gaetz, Good, and Rosendale. Biggs, first on the list, voted for a non-Kevin guy, Jordan. Boebert, second in line, voted present. This was a difference that got audible applause from the chamber. For one brief, beautiful, shining moment, it seemed like we might have a resolution. And then Crane votes for Biggs, which. Fine. Kevin can spare a few losses. And then, Gaetz doesn't. vote. Not voting present, which is a different thing. He just lets the first round skip him. Good votes for Jordan. Rosendale votes for Biggs. At which point, the math is as follows. 434 congresspeople, 432 votes, 217 to win. McCarthy has 216 votes. It all comes down to Gaetz: if he votes for McCarthy, Kevin wins. Anything else, and we're doing this again.

Gaetz. Votes. Present.

At first, this gets cheers and claps. And I look at my mom, who's watching the vote with me, and wonder "what the fuck?" The reaction makes me doubt my math. The floor is in chaos. Pretty quickly, it seems people realize that McCarthy is not, in fact, speaker of the house. Kevin runs back towards Gaetz and starts "negotiating" (fig 1)

Fig. 1: things get heated

A democrat heckles from the distance, yelling "On your knees!" To Kevin as he approached Gaetz. There are calls for order. Mike Rogers, R-Alabama, has to be physically dragged away from Gaetz (fig 2)

Fig. 2: lol, and furthermore, lmao

All this, followed by a motion to adjourn until Monday that at first appears to be successful, until Kevin runs to the front to tell members to change their votes. It appears a deal has been struck—and ballot 15 proves it. All the remaining holdouts vote present, lowering the threshold to 215, and allowing Kevin's 216 votes to take him over the line. Truly, our long national nightmare has come to a middle.

What does this mean? Probably bad things. The rules package and committee assignments are yet to be formalized (that'll come on Monday), but expect the house ""freedom"" caucus to be more or less running the show (*) (*pending a long and bloody battle over the rules, which is, IMO, still on the table).

I could go through the speeches, but it's 2:30 am and I've got a flight tomorrow so I would literally Rather Perish so instead, to conclude, i'll leave you with this.

(3: source)

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buddy you KNOW i want those speeches thoughts

*deep sigh* fine. let's do this.

My qualifications here are thus: I did three years of competitive speech and debate, and did pretty well for myself (two time state qualifier, two time national qualifier, one time state champion). I also spent a year as team co-captain, and a year helping a teacher at my school teach the speech and communications class. Also, i'm an extremely judgemental bitch. With that in mind,

Hakeem Jeffries

Jeffries started out his speech by thanking the Democratic caucus, and by calling them out for being unified. Which makes sense, that's a good contrast to draw and it comes across as more dignified for not mentioning the Republicans or their negative example by name and instead just going on the positives.

He then moved on to praising Pelosi for her leadership, calling her the greatest speaker of all time, and setting up what I'd call the main rhetorical theme of Jeffries' speech: alliteration. Jeffries loves alliteration. I can't tell you if that's a common factor of all of his speeches, because I haven't watched any outside of this one, but boy. Does he like his alliteration.

"Throughout her time in congress she's been a legendary legislator, a fabulous facilitator, and a non-nonsense negotiator. [...] A defender of democracy. A voice for the voiceless, and a powerful champion for the children, the climate, charm city, California, the caucus, the congress, the country, and the constitution."

There's a bible Quote detour after the Pelosi section, which I'm not personally a fan of because it seems like it's a detour that's unnecessary. However, what he uses it to transition to is great and something more democrats should do: talk about their goddamn accomplishments. It includes a line that I think any other speaker would have made sound incredibly cheesy, but I think Jeffries pulls off:

"The D in Democrat stands for 'deliver'."

(which of course got boos from the Republican side. lots of heckling. whatever, children.)

The next section does a lot of laying out an agenda going forwards, I think it's inoffensive and fine, and there's another big chunk of alliteration. You think I'm kidding about this speech? go watch it for yourself.

I liked the language about diversity, mostly, though did notice that trans people were glaringly missing from his whole thing about the kind of people who make up America. Whatever.

Rhetorically, I like framing the Democratic party as the party of the American dream. For as much as like. leftists will criticize that idea, I think it's probably still persuasive to a lot of people and I'm always going to argue for effectiveness of outcome over ideological purity. I also like pointing at the house Republicans and their bullshit and saying "we're reasonable! ball's in your court" (paraphrasing).

And then, the main event. The grand listing of Democratic values, an alphabetical list of alliteration. You can watch it here, set to music. I kinda liked how pointed it got! I'm a big fan of people who don't pull punches when they're dealing with bullshit, and I don't think this did that. Also, I respect that he got all the way to the end of the alphabet that's a hard feat to pull off. Do you know how hard it is to find political contrasts to make where both parts start with X or Z? I don't think I could have done that!

Overall, I liked it. I don't know if it was great, but it's certainly unique enough to be memorable for a bit, at least among the kind of people who watch 15 minute speeches at like 10 in the evening on a friday (me).

Also, you could see how hard he struggled to find nice things to say as he introduced Kevin lmao

Kevin McCarthy

Starting off strong with an ineffectual little gavel hit like a kid with a new toy, and then an incredibly stupid little joke.

"That was easy, huh?" -Kevin McCarthy, 2023, after 15 ballots.

Followed by a dig at the opposition, for no reason

"Hakeem, I've gotta warn ya. 2 years ago, I got 100% of the vote from my conference."

He then thanked the Clerk, which I actually think is a very good thing to do. I'll give him that. That lady deserves all the kudos she's been getting: normally, nobody knows who she is and then all of a sudden the eyes of the nation are on her. Then he makes an appeal to "my father once told me" which. eugh. I don't like these.

"My father once told me, it's not how you start. It's how you finish."

He then talks about being the son of a firefighter (we get it! we know! I don't know what he thinks this proves!) and then being able to achieve high office in the most uninspiring possible way, as well as shouting out Jeffries' life story too as if we did not just hear it in much more engaging detail like 15 minutes ago.

pictured: a man who is wondering if he has to clap.

Kevin then promises Jeffries that he'll keep debates civil, which. LMAO. Jeffries mouths something in response which might be "no" or "bet". I don't know I don't read lips. (also side note: LOVING the free CSPAN camera angles throughout all of this. Free the cameras. I want to watch reaction shots always.)

He hits the highlights. Bladyada the economy, respect law enforcement, dreams come true in america, etc. He wants to cut spending, lower prices, stop the rise of the national debt (if you're playing the Republican speech drinking game, here's where you take a drink), slash regulations (another drink), do more american energy, the works.

The interesting bit comes after, where he talks about some specifics of his plan for governance. He promises the first bill when they come back is to repeal the funding for 87,000 new IRS agents. He wants to tackle the southern border (take a drink) and stop "woke indoctrination in our schools" (another drink, or maybe throw one at your tv. either way). He's really repetitive in his speech: if i hear "wasteful washington spending" one more time I am going to Lose It. There's some dumb line he seems very proud of here. Oo look at you doing assonance how clever:

"From now on, if a Washington bureaucrat wants to spend it, they will come before us to defend it."

He promises a bipartisan select committee on China, because of course the Republican party has to be hyper focused on China. There are also, apparently, going to be committees on the withdrawal from Afghanistan, the origins of COVID (really? really?? it is the year of our lord 2023 and we're still doing lab leak bullshit?), and the "weaponization of the FBI" (read: raiding Mar-a-lago). These feel like presumably some of the compromises made with the freedom caucus to buy their vote.

IDK I'm focusing on policy so much because his speaking style is so bland. every attempt at flourish falls flat. he is like the lukewarm oatmeal of speaking styles. It just feels clumsy.

He focuses a lot on his little section about opening up the house (physically). Including a dumb little metaphor about the debates being open too. Actually he just talks about debate good a lot which, I say as a former debate kid: lmao.

The thanks to his family does have huge oscar acceptance speech vibes, but it is also probably the best part of this speech. Comes across as cute and genuine. He then follows it with a very dumb quote from a Song, losing the moment entirely. Kevin, fire your speechwriter. He then goes back to his father being a firefighter! We KNOW.

Again, if I have to give him some kudos (reluctantly) it's for his bits about the families of the lawmakers supporting them. I think it's humanizing, a thing he needs desperately.

There's then a whole thing about Lincoln, and the statuary hall because that's where Lincoln served, and oh boy does it sounds like he jerks off to fantasies of Lincoln. Like, listen to this. I'm just going to excerpt it all. (emphasis mine)

"My most favorite spot in this building is not in this Chamber. It's in the chamber they met before, in the statuary hall. It's my favorite place to take people on a tour. You see, it's where Abraham Lincoln served. Just a one term congressman, sat in the back. I like to go to that spot, and I like to stand where he stood. I like to do it at night, when people aren't around. I like to look over, and look at the clock, because that's the same clock and same view that Abraham Lincoln saw. I've watched Lincoln serve in the greatest challenge to our constitution, the Civil War. I watched him take peoples who were rivals. I watched in a time that he did not know if the nation could sustain itself, but he dreamt of a future, and built a railroad across the nation. I want us to all take a moment one time that you are here. I want you to stand there. I want you to look. And I want you to think, if America could do it then, we could do it now one more time."

He promises an open door opportunity, which. Lmao, we'll see. And then he goes on a LONG ramble about the painting of Washington crossing the Delaware that doesn't appear to have a point. If I was coaching this speech, I'd tell him to make the point more explicit or cut this section entirely. It's so weird. It sounds like a freshman paper. He also makes a GREAT mouth typo here:

"If we let everybody in the boat. If we row in the same cadence together. There is no obstacle this body can overcome for this nation."

pictured: Matt Gaetz, on his phone throughout the painting section.

I will also give Kevin one other thing: he's pretty self-deprecating in this speech, and I think that's the only correct tone to take after this embarrassment of a process. Congrats on reading the room, Kevin. Now if you could read the room and make your goddamn speech shorter, that'd be great.

Overall, C-. Terribly boring. It feels very... clumsy? Is probably the best way to put it? and It's so long. It did not need to be this long. I'm looking at the clock and I've spent almost an hour and a half writing this post. Jesus Christ. Good night, and God bless America.

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A friendly reminder to all that I am a political-scientist-in-training and tomorrow is an American election. I will tag all jokes/goofs/memes/other people’s takes/just headlines #electionposting and any real thought-out commentary #poliscicomm. Feel free to block either or both of those tags. Take care of yourselves.

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Intro Post

(Last Updated 6/25/24)

Hi! I'm Baron, or Baronet, or Coins: whichever floats your boat. I use he/they/it pronouns.

I'm a writer, though most of this blog is me yelling about things as I fancy. You can find my ao3 here. My ask box is always open—feel free to drop in and say hi, or even leave a prompt! Directory/Useful Tags

Primary Tags #my writing - exactly what it says on the tin #my ocs - also exactly what it says on the tin, primarily destiny AUs and Ongoing Projects

#left some teeth - a Henry V au about ghosts and flesh and hauntings. Read it on Ao3 here. #oberth maneuver - a crossover longfic casting DSMP characters in the setting of The Expanse. Read it on ao3 here. #per audacia au - a crossover au casting various MCYT characters in the world of Destiny, created in collaboration with @/geojester #funeralverse - a Life Series centric ghost hunting au featuring Grian as a team lead, Scar as a psychic, Jimmy as cannon fodder, and Tango as his ghostly companion. Find the masterpost here.

fandom tags, when I remember to use them #aubreyad - mostly setting this one up as a precaution #destiny 2 - despite what it says on the tin this is my general destiny tag #disco elysium #expanseposting - the expanse #henry v 1989 (also, #a muse of fire for things I don't want to maintag) #3rd life #douple life smp #limited life smp #temeraire Other Notable/Useful/Organizational Tags #talking about words - general thoughts on writing or the writing process #writing struggles - similar to above, but more complaining #six sentence sunday - once a week wip snippets #ask the baronet - (I try to tag) ask games and answered asks #tmbg - talking about they might be giants #electionposting - politics memes, jokes, and other people's posts #poliscicomm - more serious explaining of politics and policy #baron's robot tag - I have a lot of emotions about robots

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This post isn't wrong, but it's missing a large chunk of the history that actually gives us a path towards fixing it. Hi, I'm Baron, and I'm currently studying political science and public policy, and working in a class around healthcare policy. The US system is really about 4 systems of health insurance and healthcare providers. You have veteran's benefits, a form of socialized healthcare where the government builds hospitals and employs doctors. Then you have the socialized insurance programs, Medicare (for people 65 and older) and Medicaid (for people who fall below a certain income level), where the government is the insurer, but the actual service of healthcare are done by private doctors and hospitals. Everyone else in the US is either uncovered or covered by the private health insurance market, through a marketplace or through their employer. The majority of Americans get health benefits through an employer.

Now the history behind how we got here, with a fragmented system-I'm pulling a lot on a paper by Jill Quadagno, "Why the United States Has No National Health Insurance: Stakeholder Mobilization against the Welfare State, 1945-1996". Quadagno traces the history of employer-sponsored benefits back to the late 1940s when federal legislation rolled back many of the gains unions got, and in response the Congress of Industrial Organizations expelled many communist-controlled unions. Shortly after this organized labor began to organize particularly for employer-sponsored healthcare benefits as a way to provide value to people who worked in a union shop, instead of turning towards a national healthcare program.

However, they couldn't get these companies to cover retired employees. This created one of the motivations for Medicare-insurance for older adults isn't profitable and isn't covered elsewhere. So the block of people who worked together to get a (limited) national insurance program were a coalition of older adults who marched by the thousands and organized labor groups. These forces joined together to lobby and also organized to make sure Medicare supporters got re-elected. As Quadagno points out, "The Democrats won the Senate and the House by a wide margin, and no incumbent, Republican or Democrat, who supported Medicare lost."

So you want national healthcare? Join a union. Build wide coalitions. Get progressives elected to government. The forces behind this involved a powerful organized labor movement and finding a sympathetic national face for the issue-we built those before, and we can build them again.

We need to end lobbyism as we know it. Corporate bribery is the worst way to provide a human right like health care.

Sad that $800 million/year in bribes costs us 650 billion/year in savings.

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There’s a really good book on this called The Injustice of Place that makes a compelling argument for thinking of these areas as internal colonies, with some horrifying (though not entirely surprising) data. Things like “counties where lynchings were more common (after accounting for population size) have higher rates of police officer-involved shootings today” (116-117). Their analysis of deep and persistent poverty ties back into this idea that the worst poverty is not found in cities as much as popular conception thinks—it’s tied to areas of resource extraction economies and other types of injustice.

Life expectancy by US county.