#oscah talk 2k21

[aliveandfullofjoy]

okay! for some ungodly reason i've finally seen all 8 of this year's best picture nominees, all 20 of this year's nominated performances, and all five directing nominees. because i'm nothing if i don't rank things, here we go!

Best Picture:

Nomadland

Minari

Sound of Metal

The Father

Judas and the Black Messiah

Promising Young Woman

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Mank

i am NOT HERE for #7 or 8, but i either love or like the top six, which is a pretty great average for me. the top two are pretty far out ahead comparatively, but again, really solid group overall.

Best Director:

Chloé Zhao, Nomadland

Lee Isaac Chung, Minari

Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman

Thomas Vinterberg, Another Round

David Fincher, Mank

Zhao's win will be richly deserved. Fincher has no business being nominated. Vinterberg's work is solid, but the film is pretty hollow and will be a wholly unmemorable winner for International Feature (especially with Quo Vadis, Aida? in contention as well -- Jasmila Zbanic would've been a far more deserving international nominee for Director too).

Best Actress:

Frances McDormand, Nomadland

Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday

Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman

I've settled on predicting Viola Davis for the win on Sunday, and I'll be thrilled to see her win a leading Oscar even if her work in Ma Rainey is far from my favorite performance of hers. McDormand is miraculous in Nomadland, and she's remained my personal choice in this category all year. Mulligan is great, walking a real tightrope in her film. Day and Kirby are in very, very bad movies, and while neither of them are bad, neither of them are very good either.

Best Actor:

Anthony Hopkins, The Father

Steven Yeun, Minari

Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal

Gary Oldman, Mank

man, replace fuckin' Gary Oldman with Delroy Lindo and you'd have what might be the best oscar lineup ever?? Oldman is excruciatingly hammy, but the other four are unreal. Ahmed would probably win in any other year, and he's amazing. Yeun does beautifully subtle work; even with the Oscar nomination, I feel like his performance is underrated. Hopkins gives a career-best performance in The Father. he's astonishing, and he seems to be picking up steam to win the whole damn thing at the eleventh hour. however, i won't lie to you: if he wins on Sunday, i'll be just a little disappointed. Chadwick Boseman's stunning final performance in Ma Rainey would be a great performance regardless of his death, but a posthumous Oscar win is a more than fitting tribute to one of the great movie stars of our lifetime, gone far too soon.

Best Supporting Actress:

Youn Yuh-jung, Minari

Olivia Colman, The Father

Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Amanda Seyfried, Mank

Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy

if Youn doesn't win on Sunday, i'll be devastated, lmao. she's so far and away the most deserving choice here. Colman gives a beautiful, complex performance in The Father. Bakalova also gives a complex performance, albeit a very funny one. Seyfried revitalizes her drab film whenever she appears, but it's not much more than that. Close is... the less said about her performance the better.

Best Supporting Actor:

Paul Raci, Sound of Metal

Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah

Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah

Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami

Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Sacha Baron Cohen's nomination is completely useless, as is his entire film, but otherwise, these are four great performances. are they four great supporting performances? ehhhh. maybe not! Odom is terrific, easily the highlight of Miami. Stanfield is so, so good in Judas, but he's clearly the film's lead. Kaluuya, who will win the Oscar in a walk, is tremendously powerful, a real volcanic performance. Raci is my favorite, though, a wholly honest and lived-in supporting turn from a character actor who's never even flirted with this level of exposure before. his nomination was one of the unlikeliest, but it's one of the very best of the year.

i'll probably post predictions this weekend. excited for this season to finally end tbh, lol.

[aliveandfullofjoy]

ok i know nobody cares BUT! sag and golden globe nominations come out this week so here are my predictions lol

(god it does stand to reason that the year that i lose my job and have to fight the existential dread of living through a pandemic is the year i, unfortunately, revert back to following the awards race closer than i have in years. well, i guess it's good to have hobbies.)

(all predictions are in alphabetical order, not in order of likelihood lol)

Globe predictions

Best Motion Picture - Drama

Da 5 Bloods

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Nomadland

One Night in Miami

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Motion Picture - Comedy/Musical

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Emma.

Hamilton

Palm Springs

The Prom

Best Actor - Drama

Riz Ahmed - Sound of Metal

Chadwick Boseman - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Anthony Hopkins - The Father

Delroy Lindo - Da 5 Bloods

Gary Oldman - Mank

Best Actor - Comedy/Musical

Sacha Baron Cohen - Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Lin-Manuel Miranda - Hamilton

Leslie Odom, Jr. - Hamilton

Dev Patel - The Personal History of David Copperfield

Andy Samberg - Palm Springs

Best Actress - Drama

Viola Davis - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Vanessa Kirby - Pieces of a Woman

Sophia Loren - The Life Ahead

Frances McDormand - Nomadland

Carey Mulligan - Promising Young Woman

Best Actress - Comedy/Musical

Maria Bakalova - Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Cristin Milioti - Palm Springs

Rosamund Pike - I Care a Lot

Meryl Streep - The Prom

Anya Taylor-Joy - Emma.

Best Supporting Actor

Sacha Baron Cohen - The Trial of the Chicago 7

Chadwick Boseman - Da 5 Bloods

Daniel Kaluuya - Judas and the Black Messiah

Leslie Odom, Jr. - One Night in Miami

Glynn Turman - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Best Supporting Actress

Ellen Burstyn - Pieces of a Woman

Glenn Close - Hillbilly Elegy

Olivia Colman - The Father

Amanda Seyfried - Mank

Youn Yuh-jung - Minari

Best Director

David Fincher - Mank

Regina King - One Night in Miami

Spike Lee - Da 5 Bloods

Aaron Sorkin - The Trial of the Chicago 7

Chloé Zhao - Nomadland

SAG predictions

Best Ensemble

Da 5 Bloods

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

One Night in Miami

Promising Young Woman

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Actor

Riz Ahmed - Sound of Metal

Chadwick Boseman - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Anthony Hopkins - The Father

Delroy Lindo - Da 5 Bloods

Steven Yeun - Minari

Best Actress

Amy Adams - Hillbilly Elegy

Viola Davis - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Vanessa Kirby - Pieces of a Woman

Frances McDormand - Nomadland

Carey Mulligan - Promising Young Woman

Best Supporting Actor

Sacha Baron Cohen - The Trial of the Chicago 7

Chadwick Boseman - Da 5 Bloods

Daniel Kaluuya - Judas and the Black Messiah

Leslie Odom, Jr. - One Night in Miami

Paul Raci - Sound of Metal

Best Supporting Actress

Maria Bakalova - Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Glenn Close - Hillbilly Elegy

Olivia Colman - The Father

Amanda Seyfried - Mank

Youn Yuh-jung - Minari

[aliveandfullofjoy]

Final Oscar Predictions, LMAO

What a long fucking season, y’all. The nominations are on Monday and they could be an absolute shit show (moreso than usual), so this will be, uh, interesting, to say the least. 

Here’s what I’m going for: Mank underperforms; Minari does really, really well; Sound of Metal does way better than expected; it feels to me like Judas and the Black Messiah and One Night in Miami are basically #9 and #10 and only one of them is going to make it but I truly can’t decide which. Maybe this is just me hoping this happens?

Anyway yeah! Here we go!

BEST PICTURE (in alphabetical order) 01. The Father 02. Judas and the Black Messiah 03. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom  04. Mank 05. Minari 06. Nomadland 07. Promising Young Woman 08. Sound of Metal 09. The Trial of the Chicago 7

DIRECTOR 01. Lee Isaac Chung (Minari) 02. Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman) 03. David Fincher (Mank) 04. Darius Marder (Sound of Metal) 05. Chloé Zhao (Nomadland)

LEADING ACTRESS 01. Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) 02. Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday) 03. Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman) 04. Frances McDormand (Nomadland) 05. Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)

LEADING ACTOR 01. Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal) 02. Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) 03. Anthony Hopkins (The Father) 04. Tahar Rahim (The Mauritanian) 05. Steven Yeun (Minari)

SUPPORTING ACTRESS 01. Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) 02. Olivia Colman (The Father) 03. Jodie Foster (The Mauritanian) 04. Amanda Seyfried (Mank) 05. Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

SUPPORTING ACTOR 01. Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7) 02. Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah) 03. Alan Kim (Minari) 04. Leslie Odom, Jr. (One Night in Miami) 05. Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY 01. Mank 02. Minari 03. Promising Young Woman 04. Sound of Metal 05. The Trial of the Chicago 7 

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 01. The Father 02. First Cow  03. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom  04. Nomadland 05. One Night in Miami 

ANIMATED FEATURE 01. Onward 02. Over the Moon 03. A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon 04. Soul 05. Wolfwalkers 

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE 01. Another Round (Denmark) 02. La Llorona (Guatemala) 03. Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina) 04. A Sun (Taiwan) 05. Two of Us (France)

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE 01. Boys State 02. Collective 03. Crip Camp: A Disability Revolution 04. Time 05. Welcome to Chechnya 

CINEMATOGRAPHY 01. Cherry 02. Judas and the Black Messiah  03. Mank 04. Nomadland  05. The Trial of the Chicago 7 

COSTUME DESIGN 01. Emma. 02. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom  03. Mank 04. News of the World 05. The United States vs. Billie Holiday 

FILM EDITING 01. Minari 02. Nomadland  03. Promising Young Woman  04. Sound of Metal  05. The Trial of the Chicago 7 

MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING 01. Emma. 02. Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey  03. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom  04. Mank 05. Pinocchio 

ORIGINAL SCORE 01. Mank  02. The Midnight Sky  03. Minari  04. News of the World  05. Soul 

ORIGINAL SONG 01. “Husavik” (Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga) 02. “Make It Work” (Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey) 03. “Fight for You” (Judas and the Black Messiah) 04. “Io Sì (Seen)” (The Life Ahead) 05. “Speak Now” (One Night in Miami)

PRODUCTION DESIGN 01. Emma. 02. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom  03. Mank 04. News of the World  05. Tenet 

SOUND 01. Greyhound 02. Mank 03. News of the World  04. Sound of Metal  05. The Trial of the Chicago 7 

VISUAL EFFECTS 01. The Midnight Sky  02. Mulan  03. The One and Only Ivan  04. Tenet  05. Welcome to Chechnya 

DOCUMENTARY SHORT 01. Colette 02. A Concerto is a Conversation  03. A Love Song for Latasha  04. The Speed Cubers  05. What Would Sophia Loren Do?

ANIMATED SHORT 01. Burrow 02. If Anything Happens I Love You  03. Kapaemahu 04. Out 05. The Snail and the Whale 

LIVE ACTION SHORT 01. Bittu 02. The Human Voice  03. The Letter Room  04. Two Distant Strangers  05. White Eye 

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NOMINATION TOTALS 10 - Mank  8 - Minari  7 - Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom; Sound of Metal  6 - Nomadland; The Trial of the Chicago 7 5 - Promising Young Woman  4 - The Father; Judas and the Black Messiah; News of the World  3 - Emma.; One Night in Miami  2 - Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey; The Mauritanian; The Midnight Sky; Soul; Tenet; The United States vs. Billie Holiday; Welcome to Chechnya