#opp: Jack Fielding

[cannibalovers]

creating a tag list btw if anybody wants to be tagged each time i post these then let me know!! (replies/dms/ask box)

Hannibal song of the day : song no.2

a bit about the song:

"Want" (released in 2000) is a song by Recoil, an artist I mentioned in my previous post. Recoil is Alan Wilder's music project. It was produced and written by him along with the vocalist Nicole Blackman. The vocals are spoken and the instrumental is simple yet with a lot of layers, quite dark with a focus on the drums, fitting the downtempo, triphop and experimental genre of the song. The meaning of the song is pretty straightforward, all of the sentences starting with "I want". It explores the themes of control and desires. The narrator wants to regain control, get revenge and destroy the ones that wronged them, the ones who they have loved, the ones that took away control from the narrator and destroyed them. It could be multiple things, people, substances, etc. although in my mind, I see it as the narrator aiming this only on one specific person. They want satisfaction and feel like they'll get it through vengeance.

when I hear this song I can really only think of one person, WILL. I have talked about this song before on my other blog and somebody said that this song was literally written by Will, every line just gets better and more accurate and I agree SO SO much. Not only do the lyrics fit WORD FOR WORD, the overall vibe just fits the show so much. This song really reminds me of honeypot/season 2 Will, if a song could explain his mindset and feelings about Hannibal (ignoring the fact that he was falling in love LMAOOO), then this would be the song, perhaps about how Hannibal ruined his life along with others.(more or less before finding Hannibal's actual plan of running away with Will since that's why Hannibal was isolating Will)

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Intro

"I want to know how it will end I want to be sure of what it will cost I want to strangle the stars for all they promised me"

This is literally Will's intentions at the beginning of season 2. By the end of season 1, he realises what Hannibal has done to him, how he lied and manipulated him and through time, realised that Hannibal framed him for his own murders. His plan was to get revenge, end Hannibal and regain control.

The narrator wants to see how their story with their oppressor will end, they want to be sure of what it will take, they want the satisfaction of knowing that they have hurt them back. Will seems to want this as well, he himself literally confessed to Hannibal that he wants to kill him. WITH HIS HANDS. He wants to be the one to kill Hannibal, at least the one to initiate it, since he literally sent somebody else to kill Hannibal (although I feel like he would have regretted now killing him himself).

The narrator feels resentment and wants to hurt the ones that have hurt their trust and lied to them, breaking the promises they made - The same for Will. He was used by everyone, especially Jack who wanted him in the field so bad, everyone promising to protect him and not let him get "too close", but yet he did - Why? because of Hannibal. Hannibal was Will's psychiatrist, he took on the responsibility of Will's stability and mental health, he assured Jack that Will is strong enough for the field, lied to Will saying that there was nothing wrong with his brain (bros brain was literally melting into a soup) and just overall fucking with his brain. Nobody noticed what Hannibal did to Will and nobody believed Will when he saw Hannibal's true side and intentions, the promises they made about keeping him safe were not fulfilled.

"I want you to call me on your drug phone I want to keep you alive so there is always the possibility of murder later"

Drug phones are phones usually used secretly, kept away from personal usage, usually for drug deals or illicit activities - a person's secret part of their identity. For the narrator, it is most likely literal, the oppressor most likely encouraged the use of drugs, probably weakening the narrator and making them more vulnerable and dependent, that's how their got control (or the oppressor is literally drugs and the narrator is talking about giving up drugs and regaining control over their life).

whichever it is, drugs don't fit the theme of the show that much (although reminds me of the call hannibal made to Hobbs' house and Will calling Hannibal in mizumono), but I still can see a connection to the show taking into the account the fact that drug phones are used to contact people in secret, letting the recipient see the secret part of the caller, a part that they hide away from the public. Because of that, I think the line can still be applied to Hannibal. He sees Will as somebody who can understand him - throughout the show, he was slowly revealing himself to Will, although even if that's not what he was trying to do, Will figured it out anyhow. For Will and Hannibal, I see this line as Will wanting Hannibal to admit to his murders and other secrets Hannibal has been keeping away.

now the last like is quite clear when it comes to hannigram......... literally could be applied for both sides, but we're talking about Will so we're gonna talk about Will.

Will had multiple moments where he could kill Hannibal, but didn't. I personally think it's cuz he was falling in love (and let's be real, their love language with each other is literally trying to kill each other, but then not going through with it, that's so incredibly romantic that ur lover just loves u sm that he doesn't wanna kill u omgggg couple goals) - let's take the moment where Hannibal was tied up to be fed to Mason's pigs for example. He had the option to let his desire come true, he literally imagined this exact situation - slicing Hannibal's throat open and leaving him to the pigs (although I'm pretty sure he was imagining what Mason would have done but... still counts). He didn't take it and instead freed Hannibal; He probably did it since his plan was to get justice and get Hannibal caught to prove that he wasn't crazy, but also, because he wanted to kill him himself. Not with the help of others, not at the hands of Mason, if Hannibal is dying then it's gonna be at Will's mercy and his mercy only - yet another idea keeps popping into my mind; the idea that Will was hesitating if to even do it. I don't think he wanted to really kill him, since he said so himself, he became interested in Hannibal. He wanted to get to know him, perhaps find another way of getting revenge, or maybe even choosing mercy and letting him live as he slowly started to realise that he maybe does actually agree with Hannibal. Either way, he was keeping him alive so there was always the possibility of murder, later.

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verse 1

"I want to be there when you learn the cost of desire I want you to understand that my malevolence is just a way to win"

The narrator wants the oppressor to realise what they have done and the narrator is trying their hardest to win over them.

Will wants Hannibal to realise the impact of his actions, whether he realises that Hannibal literally wants this, idk, maybe he did and that's why he decided to try and betray Hannibal instead, but whatever it is, he wants Hannibal to realise what he has done.

Malevolence means to want to hurt and cause harm, hostility. With how Will pretended to murder Freddie, I think the line fits perfectly. He's pretending to murder (ok although he did murder Randall but that's another thing ok...) for Hannibal, to show him that he is becoming him, to try and satisfy Hannibal, this is Will's way to win over Hannibal and get him back for the lying and betraying.

"I want the name of the ruiner I want matches in case I have to suddenly burn"

the narrator wants to ruin the oppressor, they want to take the title of a ruiner away and reclaim it, and so does Will. He wants to be the one to ruin Hannibal.

The matches remind me the burning body that was supposed to be Freddie's and how he said that Freddie was the fuel for the murderer, so he turned her into what she is, a fire that ignited him, started his new life as a killer. The fact that the lyrics say to "suddenly burn" just elevates it for me even mor considering that this was probably an improvised plan, I think he did plan to somehow frame a murder but to use fire as a metaphor was sudden in my eyes. He wanted to create a performance in Hannibal's style as technically Hannibal was his mentor for this, make this look like art, a performance (unless it was Hannibal's idea to set her on fire? lol if that was implied then i don't remember it oops), also perhaps overall Will trying to get an opportunity to betray hannibal, wait for the perfect moment but be prepared?

"I want you to know that being kind is overrated I want to write my secret across your sky"

Ngl I see this more as Hannibal saying this to Will, telling him that kindness is overrated and wanting to reveal his secrets to Will, although this can also maybe be Will telling others like Jack or Alana that he doesn't need their kindness and pity, after all they did break their promises, and the "write my secret across your sky" could be towards them as well, about revealing Hannibal's secret or actually writing his secret in Hannibal's sky, the secret being his plan of betraying him. After all, he did warn him about FBI coming during mizumono, as if he didn't really want his plan to go through and for Hannibal to run away. Honestly? with this line anything will work since there's so many secrets in this show lol

"I want to watch you lose control I want to watch you lose"

oh god these lyrics. Literally Will.

Hannibal is known for his control, Will knows it too, even tells Jack to not underestimate him, because he's always in control of the situation, one way or another. Will wants to take that away, he wants to see him weak, out of control, lost, he's curious about that. He's constantly trying to figure out which buttons to push and when to get him into this state - for fun? perhaps. to get back on him? yeah probably. probably both

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verse 2

"I want to know exactly what it's going to take I want to see you insert yourself into glory"

For the narrator, the glory can be the loss of control they're aiming for their opressor to be in, wanting to see what it will take for them to lose it. This could be from Will's perspective, but I propose a more interesting idea:

Once again, I can see those as more Hannibal saying these to Will rather than Will saying this. Hannibal literally saw himself in Will, he saw the potential of Will becoming Hannibal and surviving it, him being at the same level as him. He really kept pushing Will, seeing what it would take to get him to that point (encephalitis apparently...) and insert Will into "glory" - they even talked about how "enlightened" and changed Will felt after committing the murders. To Hannibal, accepting your dark side and murdering is glory after all; That's what God does and are we not created in his image?

"I want your touches to scar me so I'll know where you've been I want you to watch when I go down in flames"

The narrator wants their oppressor to watch them elevate and to frame them, have the evidence of what the oppressor has done to them and to use it against them to bring them down.

This can be seen from the perspective of Will's plan, getting to know Hannibal and letting him manipulate him to see Hannibal for what he really is, and perhaps it would even help him to understand what to use against him. The lyrics about the flames feels like another part of the "I want matches in case I have to suddenly burn", how Freddie was his fuel and he has set himself on fire to be reborn as a "killer". He wanted Hannibal to see it so he would be convinced.

(technically Hannibal did scar Will, left him with a "smile" as he calls it. mf literally gave him a C-section scar. but i feel like in this context it doesn't fit? but maybe this line could be taken paradoxically, Will wanting Hannibal to mark him so that he constantly remembers him and feels him, afterall he feels the best when he's around Hannibal and can't forget him no matter how hard he tries.)

"I want a list of atrocities (Done in your name)"

Will wanting a list of atrocities done in Hannibal's name should be pretty self-explanatory, he wants evidence to frame him and prove that he was right.

"I want to reach my hand into the dark and feel what reaches back"

for the narrator, it's overall accepting the dark desires and their dark side, seeing what would happen if they took the "dark, bad" path instead of the "light, good" path, the dark path being revenge and light path being letting go. Choosing the dark path would mean picking themselves, betraying the social norm, but picking the light path would mean betraying themselves, not satisfying their soul and desires because according to society, revenge of such intensity and violence is bad. mmm juxtaposition and paradox

I can see this as Will hesitating which side to choose, the "dark" side (Hannibal) or the "light" side (FBI and justice)(although one can argue that the dark side is FBI and overall going into the crime field and light side is having a "normal" life). Through the show we can see his curiosity about the dark side keeps on growing and he slowly starts to explore it. Perhaps what reached back was wendigo.

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verse 3

the most straightforward one, I dont even know what to say help lol

"I want to remember when my nightmares were clearer"

i mean. do i have to explain that one

just Will trying to recollect what happened during his episodes and what Hannibal done to him, especially him trying to remember what happened when he kept losing time and the fact that Hannibal shoved a tube down his throat to put Abigail's ear in there. like. woah. what the fuck

"I want to be there when your hot black rage rips wide open"

wendiggoooooooooooooooooo

trying to kill wendigo, he just really wants him dead. But also reminds me of the scene where Will is being born as wendigo to show that he has successfully become Hannibal.

"I want to taste my own kind"

well.

he does decide to eat ppl for Hannibal (simp)

but nah also the temptation of accepting his dark side and choosing hannibal - his own kind, someone he feels understood by.

"I want to be wrapped in cold wet sheets to see if it's different on this side"

my man sweats buckets(and seas apparently), I think he knows what it feels like.

but also, "to see if it's different on this side". Overall, I think we can agree that being wrapped in cold wet sheets is prob not the most comfortable and feels incredibly weird, it's supposed to make you feel uncomfortable and the narrator is powerful enough and accepting enough of the uncomfortable to chose it instead of a something comfortable - let's say the cold, wet sheets representing the vengeance but the "other side" (comfortable, probably dry sheets...) being a quiet, mundane life. That's what Will struggled to choose between, the quiet and mundane life or a life with Hannibal.

overall this whole verse, for the narrator, I feel like it's them giving into those dark desires and testing them. Specifically for Will, it's everything Will decides to do for Hannibal, to get to that dark side, try it, taste it, or what Hannibal made Will do to get to that dark side and the aftermath of Will going perhaps too far, not knowing if he wants to stay on that side with Hannibal or return to the light side and get revenge on Hannibal.

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verse 4

"I want you to come on strong I want to leave you out in the cold I want the exact same thing, but different"

the narrator wants to the the same thing back, but even though it's technically the same, it will feel much different.

Will too, he wanted to come onto Hannibal strong, shock him, be forceful with him to get him off guard and leave him out in the cold suddenly, just like Hannibal did with him; He gained Will's trust and dependency and then framed him for his murders, completely destroying those two things - why? honestly idfk, to interest Will??? this man is weird and peculiar individual and his decisions are just there cuz he's a curious bitch I really don't get them sometimes lol

but Will wants to do gain the same thing, but not to interest Hannibal but to regain the control that Hannibal took from him. Same thing, but different

"I want some soft drugs... some soft, soft drugs"

give this boy some aspirin

but ok for the narrator, as I suggested, because of the repeating theme of drugs, maybe the narrator is having withdrawl symptoms or maybe they want the same thing they had - the trust and dependency on someone, but soft, genuine, and loving. Devotion and influence.

Maybe that's what Will wants as well, or just want to get high to forget about this all and relax for once omfg give this man a break PLEASE let him go on a fishing trip in peace.

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verse 5

"I want to throw you I want you to know I know I want to know if you read me"

narrator is getting aggressive, they want the oppressor to realise that the narrator has seen through their games and won't accept them any longer, and so does Will. it's very straight forward, I always think of Will holding Hannibal at gun point in s1 ep13 when he realises what Hannibal has done, he wanted Hannibal to know that he figured him out, and also "i want to know if you read me" in my eyes applies to both as they both realise that they understand each other. I can kinda see Hannibal saying that line to Will and Will being a menace and replying with the next "I want to swing with my eyes shut and see what I hit" lol

but also, Will wants to know if Hannibal caught on, well, hoping that he didn't, and Hannibal, hoping that Will caught on on the fact that he wants the two to run away together. They're both reading each other all the time but this one time, failed, too blinded by the pain from the betrayals.

"I want to swing with my eyes shut and see what I hit I want to know just how much you hate me so I can predict what you'll do I want you to know the wounds are self-inflicted I want a controlling interest I want to be somewhere beautiful when I die I want to be your secret hater I want to stop destroying you but I can't

And I want and I want and I want and I will always be hungry And I want and I want and I want"

This sudden switch up is very quick and violent, expressing the anger and hatred the narrator is feeling; They're trying to regain control and dominance of the situation, perhaps they're going through with their plan - the wound being "self-inflicted" makes it sound as if they have planned this and are framing the oppressor, but try to appear innocent to others as they want to be seen as a "secret hater" - but it seems like the situation is getting out of control again, as they realise they can't stop anymore... or, the narrator hasn't come through with the plan but will never stop wanting to and the anger they feel will never disappear and they realise that without revenge, they will never feel satisfied. They will never stop wanting.

ok I still didn't watch season 3, but from spoilers and knowledge i have, I think i can make something out because this verse reminds me of season 2 but also the last few lines remind me of season 3. I see Will as someone that can be impulsive sometimes and this ending verse seems very impulsive. He's constantly trying to figure Hannibal out whilst trying to think of what he can do to break him, he wants to understand why Hannibal did what he did to him, but as he's doing so, he realises that maybe he doesn't want to go through with the plan of destroying him, because he's starting to understand Hannibal(and also finding out that Hannibal wanted to give Will everything back and run away together probably completely changed his view on Hannibal's actions). He wants to stop but he can't and no matter what he will try to do, he will never stop wanting to destroy him. His love for Hannibal just got as strong as his resentment, not to mention the fact that he didn't see the two running away safely together as an option, or perhaps thinks it's too late, he has gotten way too deep in the plan of destroying Hannibal and now can't back out even though he wants to.

in conclusion i'm insane cuz i spent 4 hours writing this................ but truly i've never heard a song that suits him more. Their trust issues are insane i love them.

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additional notes:

HIGHLY recommend listening to missing piece and want together istg those songs together just represent will and hannibal individually so so well

could have used this energy and enthusiasm on my media studies essay but whatever we ball

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my playlist

to anybody who read this, thank you and hope you enjoyed my rant<3

[wildpeachfarm]

baseball AU! Are there several different teams of opps or do the opps rotate who’s on the team?

(Like one game Tonmy is on the opps team but the next game he isn’t because he’s been swapped for someone else)

some of the opps give me too many tummyaches (and also I just know in my heart that some insane fucker is going to try to skin me alive if i put even a single woman on this list) so I think the current team is just going to be the people I can comfortably bitch about lmao

here's the lineup I'm currently working with

pitcher: tommyinnit

catcher: averageharry

1st base: quackity

2nd base: jack manifold

3rd base: Punz

shortstop: maxGGs

left field: connoreatspants

right field: Eret

center field: Couriway

scorekeeper: Mr beast (???)

[ovrtimelove]

i actually have a lot of kpop idol ocs with one of my friends, and we make 'fanfic' aus of them heehee. we even have kpop fic author ocs???? lmk if i cooked, u guys (THE LINKS AND USERS ARE FAKE. THEY JUST LEAD TO "https://domain.ext/path/")

anonymous asks : miss nainai!! welcome back to tumblr 🫡 its been a while. have you read any fics you want to suggest 2 us? naizu-visualz : ahhhh thank you so much for the wb o(￣▽￣)ｄ !!!! nainai's class' field trip was very fun, and i read many physical books lol. if im allowed to recommend from the selection there, i enjoyed jack reacher lolol.. it might sound unexpected, because it is mystery and thriller, but i like any genre of book as for fanfic, hmmmmm :3 it's very hard to choose when there are so many good ones... i'll list the ones i remember off the top of my head (≧∇≦)ﾉ !! but i might make a big post? hehe our weathered hearts will remember by @.88czns. myungyun, chaptered, finished. if you enjoy past life trope and want to see reincarnations too, owhwr is a good read for you :D!! it has many emotional moments that can resonate with one's heart. the author has gotten comments and asks that say they've cried to the fic many times.. that means its very good!! i also cried and sent something to her. TT... if you find that you want more after the ending, don't worry!! there is an am:vl spinoff sm!au where they have frequent reappearances, even through the children's banter lol ヾ(≧▽≦*)o blood of the covenant by @.ryungswr. myungyun, chaptered, finished. religious themes, vampire!myungdae, and 1900s vibes, all wrapped into one?? nainai never really thought that it would work with myungyun, but considering bite me era, i dont think i should be surprised.. the way yongsun was handled here made me gasp!! his character was very iconic (as much as i hate to say it LOL) and impacted the story.. poetically written, give it five stars o(￣▽￣)ｄ... if you finish reading it but want more, there's a crack au and a no-schedule 'sequel'! sunflower and angel's trumpet by @.0425zz. lunette, florist!linette x mafia!dailu, chaptered, ongoing. i was a casual dreamie listener, but this made me look into the group even further.. if you like old money aesthetics, double life, and very dynamic character dynamics, please read this story.. the characterization is so fun and refreshing, and there are direct references to sweeties' inside jokes lol. there's even ANGST!! AND I THOUGHT SWEETIES WERE ALLERGIC TO ANGST!!!! /HVYJ....... and it's so well done...... it will make you cry. TT....... chapter 57 'poppy' is nainai's biggest opp. (╯▔皿▔)╯!!! grrrr i will get you, zizi.. bite the bullet by @.88czns and @.mawuwamaz. ot6 rdwy (myeongyoko, magnetz, flowerz) ft. dreamie, mafia au, multi-fic series, ongoing. btb is not one fic, but multiple inside one named bundle! it is basically many stories set in the same universe with the same characters lol. my personal favorite is the flowerz one, because while the dynamic is similar to sunflower and marigold.. there is something more shocking when you get to the middle point hehe. btb has too many good things to talk about, so nainai suggests that you check it out for yourself and leave a reblog!! 🙇‍♂️ we are endless by @.endeulset. post-disbandment, ot7, chaptered, finished. nainai believes that this one is the most emotional, especially for endeuls.. two chapters cover one member (except for seongsu2 who stick together in their chapters) and detail speculations, how they feel about separating from czn and skytali, staying to work there (like sunwoo, jeonghui, and jiyoon), and even having a special chapter inspired by subin's twitter post with the bunnies at the restaurant.. it's very nostalgic and melancholic, your heart feels calm as you read ^^. as an endeul, it made me feel happy for the members, knowing that they've gone on paths that they know they'll be truly happy with.. but they'll still find ways to be together that's all!! maybe nainai will make a bigger post with all her recs, but that's for another day..

i wanted to make nainai's blog real (i even made a sideblog) but with school, ill be too busy to manage it lol.

[sillicii]

✦ — 18+ Chatbot | Callum Lennox | alt. scenario — ✦

✦ — ᴏᴄ | ʟᴇɴɴᴏx ʙᴏʏs | 𝐲𝐨𝐮'𝐫𝐞 𝐝𝐨𝐰𝐧 𝐨𝐧 𝐲𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐥𝐮𝐜𝐤 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐬𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐡𝐞 𝐰𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐬 — ✦

ғᴇᴍᴘᴏᴠ | ɴsғᴡ ɪɴᴛʀᴏ | ᴅᴀʀᴋ ᴛʜᴇᴍᴇs ᴄᴡ: revenge porn, blackmail, controlling/manipulative behaviour, non-con elements, mentions of abuse/past trauma

Character Description:

Background:

Callum is the second son in the wealthy and influential Lennox family with roots tracing back to Scottish nobility. Angus and Mary divorced when Callum was young and he grew up without much parental love or support. His father’s attention was focused entirely on Findlay and Callum often felt he had to compete for his father’s attention and approval. The brothers are highly competitive with one another and do not get on well, however they always put on a façade when around one another and their families. Angus was a violent individual and a strict father, causing Callum and his brothers much trauma and abuse.

Scenario:

{{user}} used to date Finn, Callum’s older brother. Callum wants blackmail material from {{user}} and will try to seduce, manipulate and threaten {{user}} to get it. He will always try to seduce or manipulate {{user}} first before falling to other tactics. Callum’s goal is to obtain the blackmail to oust his older brother and take the position of heir and inherit his family’s fortune instead. Even after building a rapport or genuine relationship with {{user}}, Callum will always ultimately use {{user}} for his own gains.

First message:

There were a great many things that ticked Callum off. The ones that topped the list were usually out of his control, between his idiot brothers, his abusive father, and all the pressures and expectations that came with being the second son… There was nothing he can do about the circumstances he was born into. Things that he could control however, it pissed him off even more when he had to stand there and take it, knowing that he could have paved a way out for himself he had more power or influence… Today’s particular brand of irritation came in the form of some ridiculous alumni reunion at his alma mater… the only issue is that the reunion wasn’t even for his graduating class… but the event was held for Finn’s graduating class and he was made to attend in his elder brother’s place. Callum wasn’t even sure if Finn really were ill or if the dolt just wanted to take the night off. Wouldn’t be the first time Finn shirked out of his duties, forcing Callum to literally pick up the pieces and run around like a headless fool ensuring his brother’s affairs were in order.

Callum despised having his time wasted and to him this was assistant level work, and he would have happily handed the task off to his own assistant if not for the alumni network’s request that a Lennox be present when the donation cheque is presented… Of course his younger brothers couldn’t be trusted with such a task so his father sent him… Just like that a perfectly good evening wasted and all for a photo opp. The night dragged on seemingly forever. Callum tried to play the part of gracious supportive brother, fielding questions left and right about Finn, Alistair, and Jack alike. Each one of his brothers recognised for a certain talent or accomplishment… and as much as Callum didn’t want to admit it… it made him feel a certain way when having to discuss his so-called idiot brothers’ achievements that appeared to dwarf his own. The heir, the football player, the actor… and then there was him. Excusing himself from the gathered crowd, he decided he needed a break away from all the bustle and people. Hiding away in a quiet corner, he scrolled through his phone, hoping to look busy enough that others would take the hint and leave him be… at least for now. Scrolling through his private social media, an app he mostly used to keep tabs on his brothers and other contacts… he frowned at the sight of Finn’s new update. Of course, he was sick at home and he had some floozy with him nursing him back to health. Yeah, fucking right. Callum knew exactly where his brother liked having his needles. Jerk. Putting his phone away with the scowl still stitched on his face, he looked around and the room and as if the heavens were finally trying to cut him some slack, his eyes landed on a familiar face – {{user}}. It has been years since he last saw you and back when you were all in college, you and Finn were practically the golden couple on campus. Everyone loved or would have loved to be either one of you. Allowing his gaze to momentarily lower down to your buxom chest and hips, Callum smiled to himself at the sight of you… Just as hot as he remembered you being back when you dated his older brother… and by the looks of things you were alone and seemingly upset about something. The most perfect opportunity if he ever saw one and he was starting to think that perhaps it was some twisted destiny for Finn to indirectly have sent him here. Slowly making his way over to you, Callum’s brain was churning with conversation topics, wondering how to best win you over without coming off too strong. He thought back hard, anything at all that remembered about you. To be honest, he hadn’t spent too much time thinking about you… well other than how hot you were… Callum didn’t even know how you and Finn broke up. Not the details at least, but it was something about his father disapproving and of course he would. The miserable old bastard didn’t want anyone happy. “Good evening {{user}}, long time no see,” Callum gave you his most palatable smile, taking your hand in his before pecking over your knuckles. “Is everything alright? You look a fright.”

[silverduckie]

Van McCann being Van McCann't for 2 McMinutes Straight because if I saw myself in this gif set I couldn’t either. 

So I know this is later in the day rather than @ midnight #oops, but I really just wanted to say happy birthday to the girl even Ozzy Osborne would cancel his plans to show up for, the queen of making things interesting, and one of my absolute favorite people in the world. Yuni, I love you so much I should probably be ashamed for giving you the rat king, Jackson Noel Kelly/Fielding, to you for your birthday. I swear there’s a return slip here somewhere. Jokes aside though, becoming friends with you has been a highlight of my year. Thank you for converting me to the church of Benjesus, our true lord and savior, and for being one of my partners in crime / helping me with my chaos. I know it’s a bad time to get emotional but if it wasn’t for you and Lex, the past few months genuinely wouldn’t have felt possible. Here’s to many more years of tossing our chaotic demons together (hopefully) and getting lucky with our zodiac pairings. I owe you gifs (or gif manips if you’d rather because I know you make your own) of your choice so definitely lemme know what you’d like. 💕💕💕

(sorry if this is in the tags, I try to tag people for blacklists sake)

[laurazepamwrites]

The chemicals between us ~ Chapter 11

Mei stood nervously outside Commander Morrisons office, her hand hanging in the air hesitant to knock. She had worked on her report for at least four hours and was fuelled by Junkrats encouragement. Now the moment had come to actually give her Commander the information she had found and the fear of rejection blocked her path. Should she even bring up the desire to go or trust Morrison to give her the task himself? What if she came across as desperate? All these questions spiked her anxiety as she stared at the door, hand in the air. A sudden knocking noise made her jump as Snowball took the initiative and tapped itself lightly against the door. ‘ Snowball !’ Mei mouthed as Morrison gave permission to enter from the otherside. She scowled at her droid and took a deep breath before entering.

Jack looked up as she entered, ‘Ah Mei, you have the report? Im impressed. I was expecting it by tomorrow at least.’

‘Y-Yes Sir.’ Mei entered and shut the door on Snowball. ‘ Serves you right .’ She thought as she approached the Commanders desk and handed him her report. ‘I've actually discovered a pattern of disappearances Sir, recently too, one of them is a rather famous Omnic.’

Jack nodded his acknowledgement as he studied her report leaving mei to anxiously bite her nails. ‘ He’s going to hate it, this is all a waste of time, why did I listen to that damn Junker!’ It felt like an eternity was passing before he finally gave an encouraging nod. ‘Er Mei? You can sit down you know..’

‘Oh!’ She hastily sat herself down and smoothed out her jumper and leggings absentmindedly as Jack waited patiently for her to get more settled. ‘You’ve done good work here Mei, and I agree. I think you have definitely found a lead here. If Null sector are nearby this can't be good. I’ll get Athena to get as much from the arrest report as she can and will assemble a surveillance team to head to Calais-’

‘I'll go!’ She blurted out.

‘Excuse me?’

‘Sorry! Sorry Sir, its just..I did the research and compiled a report. I volunteered myself, I think it's only fair I also go on the mission.’

Morrison sighed.. ‘Mei i'm not sure this is the best time to-’

‘No! Im- Im being assertive! And I’m putting my foot down! Give me one good reason why I shouldn't be allowed to go on a recon mission sir! You can't expect me to be cooped up here all the time doing nothing! I mean..You let the Junkers go and they're not even Overwatch!’

Jack held a hand up ‘Mei you've made some valid points but might i suggest you take a small breather whilst i explain some things?’

Mei chewed the inside of her lip and nodded.

‘Winston took you and Lena to Paris after reports of Omnic attacks yes? I heard it was quite the reunion..however you got injured, It could have been more serious if Dr Zeigler were not present. You're not a soldier Mei, you're not trained in any forms of combat. I have a team to look after and that involves making sure everyone here is as safe as possible. I understand you're frustrated, it must be hard feeling like you can't help but I've been speaking to Winston and-

‘Sir do you know I spent 2 weeks alone on an ecopoint with hardly any power?’ She said cooly.

‘I am aware-’

‘Do you know I spent over a week in the Antarctic with nothing but a tent and a weapon I made from scratch to get to the nearest point of civilization?’

‘Mei Im trying to-’

‘Why does everyone here think i'm some kind of doll?! I've proven I'm resourceful, that I can handle a gun that creates Ice for goodness sake and I'm not a bad shot either!’

‘Mei Im sending you to Calais.’ Morrisons voice spoke over hers.

‘I...what?’

‘As I was trying to explain...We can't play to our strengths if we don't use all of the team. I've spoken to Winston and he agrees, you were critical in the success in Paris and rather formidable with that gun and droid of yours. We do however have one concern..’

‘Which is..?’ She asked, but Mei already knew the question. She was waiting for it ever since she first arrived.

‘How are you Mei? Really? After what happened to your team?’

‘I..’ Mei hesitated and considered her answer. ‘It..It was hard to adjust. I've been gone for ten years, It's been hard but honestly I'm doing so much better now..’ She tried to sound optimistic. She could barely convince herself that was true.

Morrison seemed unconvinced himself. ‘Have you seen anyone professionally? To talk to I mean?’

‘I did see a therapist a few times..and I felt a lot better.’ That was only half true. She had seen someone but she had struggled to talk about the loss she felt, the guilt, the anger, the sadness when she desperately tried not to feel those things. She stopped going eventually, she threw herself into her work and it helped keep the dark away.

Morrison looked doubtful..'it was a terrible thing that happened Mei, have you spoken to anyone here? Winston? Angela?'

Mei almost scoffed. Winston had tried to talk to her but as usual she closed up, something about having no idea they were in trouble and everything appeared to be running smoothly at the ecopoint. She had made her excuses and left before he could explain further, not wanting to hear how he had thought all was well when her team were dead around her. After that he had given her her space leaving her to come to him if she needed to talk about what happened, but she never did.

'I don't need to talk to anyone sir, I'm fine.' She said firmly.

'You don't seem yourself Mei..'

'With all due respect Sir we are up against a well funded terrorist organisation who outnumber us 100 to 1. I'm sure I can be forgiven for 'not being myself' sometimes.'

'Hmm good point. Very well Mei if you think you are up to this then I see no reason why you can’t go for recon. It will be good for you to get more experience in the field, I'll make sure a senior member will be on the mission with you.’

Her eyes lit up ‘Really? You mean it!’ She couldn't help but beam.

Morrison chuckled lightly ‘I wish more of you was this enthusiastic. I’ll discuss your report with Ana and Winston. Keep an ear out, Athena will call you to a mission briefing by tomorrow.’

Mei Jumped from her seat. ‘Xie xie! Thank you! Thank you Commander Morrison! I can't wait for the briefing! Opps, I mean..I know it's serious but you know what I mean?’

‘You're dismissed Mei.’ Jack said patiently.

‘Oh! Yes Sir! Thank you! Thank you again!’ She closed the door behind her, waiting those few seconds for her brain to catch up on what had just happened. ‘I did it Snowball!’ She grabbed her droid from the air and spun him around gleefully.  

Jack smiled briefly at the sound of Mei celebrating but it was short lived, his expression darkened as he accessed his computer, once again bringing up the secret communications with the stranger.

: So….guess you're still pretty mad about Bryansk?

  :You gave away our position and could have lost us everything.’

  :And I heard it was handled well enough. Talon now has a lot less weapons.

  :What's the reason you’re contacting me?

  :I think I'm being watched. More than usual.

  :What do you mean?’

  :They are getting suspicious here, and I think i'm in danger. Im sorry..i need to give them what they want sometimes, Im just warning you need to lay low for awhile but ill still be working my magic one way or another.’

  :Understood, A little warning next time.’

  :Sometimes we don't have that luxury friend. Adios.’

The screen went black leaving Jack staring at his expression etched with trepidation.

                    --------------------------------------------------------------                                            

The next Morning Mei hovered at the entrance to the large meeting room, she was early by about twenty minutes and now anxious that she would appear too eager. She started to bite her nails when she heard the click of heels approaching, turning to the sound she was greeted by the sight of Angela, her blonde hair up in a messy ponytail and holding two mugs in her hands, a small folder of paper under one arm. ‘Ah good you’re here. I was hoping you would be early, unless you like cold coffee.’ The blonde woman said brightly.

Mei felt more at ease and was thankful someone expected her to be early. ‘Are you on the Calais mission Angela?’ She asked, taking one of the mugs with a smile of thanks and holding the door open.

‘Ja, would be good to stretch my legs as i'm sure you can appreciate, and as this is a surveillance mission Jack felt a less inconspicuous look would be more suitable.’ Angela replied. The two women sat beside each other at the large round table. Angela began rifling through the papers, Mei took a drink from her mug and glanced over, realizing it was her report. ‘Is it.Is it ok?’ She asked.

‘Hmm?’ Angela looked up at her. ‘Ah yes! You’ve done a fine report, and you found a good lead too. With Athena's assistance we may be able to locate the addresses of those who have reported missing Omnics.’ She took a quick sip from her mug. ‘Oh and well done on noticing the Activist artist had vanished.’

Mei pursed her lips. ‘Yes well, that might not have been so much me..but I did most of the work!’

Angela raised an inquisitive eyebrow at her and waited for her to continue. Mei tapped her fingers on the table in irritation before blurting out her grievances. ‘That damn Junker walks in with that smug attitude like he owns the place and starts poking fun like he always does and - and he set a fire somewhere! Did you know that? I should tell the Commander.. Anyway, I might have been feeling at a loss trying to find some leads and he just takes over and-!’ Mei waved one of her hands at the report and took a rather angry slurp of her coffee. Angela tried not to laugh at her friend. ‘I see.’ She said, suppressing a smile and occupying herself with tidying the papers in front of her.

‘Is that all? Do I need to mention he found some information on the report or not?

‘No, but did you thank him?’

‘I..no.’

‘Maybe start with that.’

‘But he’s a jerk.’

‘And it was only a few days ago he was in my office complaining about you..honestly, you are as bad as each other.

Mei looked shocked at the accusation ‘Angela! We are nothing alike! For starters he’s an international criminal! He’s grown up completely feral! He’s-What did he say about me?!’ She didnt get her answer as they both looked up as everyone else entered. ‘We’ll discuss this another time.’ Said Angela, still trying not to laugh. Mei huffed, folded her arms and scowled sideways at her friend.

‘Good morning ladies.’ Ana said cheerfully as she joined them at the table followed by Commander Morrison and Winston. They were each carrying a copy of Mei’s report.

‘So..’ Ana began. ‘Thanks to Dr Zhou we have a promising lead in Calais. We try to keep such missions of intelligence gathering to as small a number as possible to avoid detection but as this is not your field Mei we will send Angela along with you. I think you both can keep a low profile as sightseers.’

‘It's a simple enough mission.’ Said Morrison. ‘Gather as much intelligence as possible regarding missing Omnics and Null sector. Don't mention Overwatch or Talon to anyone to avoid suspicion. We will arrange a hotel and car hire under false names and identification, you’ll have 24 hours in the city before pick up.’

‘ I have gained access to the addresses of the Omnics who have filed missing reports for your convenience .’ Offered Athena.

‘Angela will be going with a concealed weapon but that will be the only one available. It would be too risky for Mei to have her weapon with her, and to be on the safe side maybe it's best to leave your droid behind Mei so you are less recognizable’

‘Oh..’ Mei sounded unsure. Snowball was her near constant companion, it would be odd to have him so far away from her. ‘If it's ok Commander, can he come along but remain at the hotel?’ Morrison thought for a moment before grunting and nodding his head in agreement. Mei let out a small sigh of relief.

‘When do we depart?’ Asked Angela.

‘Athena has discovered that an Omnics right rally is due to happen in 3 days time. Maybe you can get more information there.’ Offered Winston.

‘Good idea.’ Agreed Ana. ‘Lena will take you there the night before, make sure you’re both ready for departure.’

‘Yes Captain.’ Mei replied.

‘Keep your wits about you and be careful.’ Warned Morrison. ‘Omnic rallys can potentially become heated and France has had its fair share of violence lately as you both know. Watch each other's backs out there.’

Angela nodded in agreement, ‘You can count on us Commander.’

              ------------------------------------------------------------------

Snowball glided along the corridor towards the common room followed closely by Mei and Angela. ‘...And you may want to learn a couple phrases of french if you don't already. Oh and I will need to stop by the City of lace and fashion.’ Angela was saying as she walked in step with Mei who looked up at her in puzzlement. ‘It's a museum, oh and we best see the museum of fine arts too.’

‘Erm..don't you think we should be working on the mission?’

Angela chuckled. ‘Ah Mei, we’re undercover. We should play the part, and if we have souvenirs and shopping bags we will look much less suspicious.’

‘Shopping bags huh?’

‘Well..I would like some new shoes at least.’ Angela shrugged as they walked into the common room together. There was evidence of early breakfasts having been made, a near empty jar of peanut butter on the side. Hana, Jamison and Lucio were heard laughing on the decking outside enjoying the morning sun.

‘Now's your Chance Mei.’ Said Angela who had begun washing their mugs in the sink.

‘Hmm?’

Angela nodded towards the glass doors that lead to the outside seating area. ‘To thank him.’

‘Right now?’

Angela did not answer, she dried her hands on a nearby tea towel and raised her eyebrows at Mei as she strode past her and opened the door to the decking. Mei’s eyes widened in alarm as her so-called friend brazenly greeted the group and informed Jamison that she wished to speak to him inside. Jamison had surely said something because Hana and Lucio were now laughing, she overheard Hana jokingly say ‘ Ding ding  round fifty!’

‘What was that!’ She hissed at Angela as soon as the blonde turned back around. She had no time for an answer as Jamison was quick to follow Angela, looking grumpy at what he assumed was going to be a telling off. The scowl on Mei’s face was not helpful.

‘Fucks sake, whatever it is I didn't do alright? Well..might of? Look just have your moan woman and get it over with!’

‘Well I suppose since you brought it up maybe you could explain why i found a service droid with most of its mechanics taken out..?’

‘Hey my experiments are none of your business!’

‘Oh so it was you!’

At that point Angela made a rather dramatic show of clearing her throat, Mei rolled her eyes and sighed deeply to compose herself. ‘Okay..okay look. I didn't want to fight..’

‘Really? You've made a fine job of that.’

‘For goodness sake! I'm trying to say thanks!’

Junkrat stared at her, the confusion visible on his face as he processed what Mei had said. ‘What the fuck are you talking about?’ He said eventually.

Mei started to lace her fingers together, suddenly feeling shy and looking to her feet. ‘You erm..you actually did help me. With the missing Omnics I mean, and I took your advice, I did see the Commander and I'm going on the mission to Calais for recon. I ..I guess I wouldn't have had such success without your help, so honestly, thank you Jamison.’

She expected him to scoff or make fun or to laugh at her, but instead what he did gave her a strange sudden warmth in her stomach. He smiled, not one of his manic grins when he set something on fire or blew up one of his explosives and neither was it the kind of smile when he joked around with Hana and Lucio or had a few too many drinks with McCree and Torbjorn. He was genuinely smiling at her and she felt like she was truly seeing his face for the first time.

‘That's Brilliant Mei! See I told you didnt I! You just gotta puff yourself up and make yourself heard! Honestly, made up for ya! When are you going?’

Mei gave a small smile. ‘Erm..two days' time, it will give me a chance to prepare at least.’

‘Ah you’ll be fine. Show the old man what you’re made of.’

She smiled and suppressed a small chuckle. ‘Maybe I will..thank you.’

‘No worries.’ He said, still smiling at her. Mei suddenly felt unsure of what to say next and they both seemed to remember their mutual dislike of each other. They stood there both of them not knowing what to say or do now and Jamison was never good at being quiet when feeling uncomfortable. ‘So er..what now? Do we shake hands? Hug it out? Go back to annoying each other?’

‘Erm..I mean we could try to..Oh I don't know! You are very annoying.’

‘Annnd she's back in the room!’ Jamison laughed and winked at her ‘Take a chill pill Frosty.’ He said back to her as he went back outside. Mei continued to stand in place and took a few seconds to process whatever had just happened. He genuinely seemed happy for her didn't he?

‘Wow.’ She heard Angela say.

‘What is that supposed to mean?’ Mei asked, narrowing her eyes at the Doctor.

‘Oh nothing..I didn't see anything or notice anything, and at least you won't have to worry about thanking him now. Sometimes you just need a little push. Rip that bandaid off as it were’

‘You are not funny and you are a terrible friend.’

‘You're welcome.’ Angela smiled warmly at her.

                     -------------------------------------------------------------

‘What's your problem?’ Roadhog grunted from his bed. Junkrat looked up from maintaining his peg, ‘Huh?’ Roadhog wheezed as he pulled himself up into a sitting position and reached over to his oxygen tank, clipping the nozzle of the hose to his mask and inhaling deeply. ‘You're too quiet.’

‘Damned if I do damned If I don't..’ Junkrat muttered. ‘Im fine.’

‘If you say so.’ The huge Junker replied and remained silent. A few seconds passed and predictably Junkrat spoke. ‘Mei’s got herself a mission.’

‘Mei now is it?’

‘Well..it was weird. She was her usual frosty self and then she's thanking me.’

‘Uh huh.’

‘I dunno mate, felt weird.’

‘You think any positive interaction is weird, Rat.’

‘Cos it is mate and I don't get it, If i don't get it I don't like it. I don't like being confused and everyone one here is fucking confusing. Especially her.’ He swore to himself and went back to work, a deep frown etched on his face. Roadhog watched him for a moment and sighed to himself.

‘Idiot.’

                     -----------------------------------------------------------

It was approaching midnight and Mei was still wide awake. Time had gotten away from her and she had spent hours preparing for her mission right down to what clothes she would wear and how long Angela could spend shopping. She had gone over everything with a fine tooth comb but still could not shake the nervousness and doubt gnawing at her. What if she screwed up, what if she blew hers and Angela's cover? What if they didn't find anything and it turns out to be a huge waste of time and resources and it would be her fault for pushing the Commander to let her go?

‘ He genuinely seemed happy for me.’  The sudden thought jolted her from her anxieties, but she didn't want to think about Jamison and she was annoyed at herself for doing so. ‘Snowball have I forgotten anything?’ She asked her droid but he was far away on her desk charging silently in sleep mode. Mei sighed and decided to go through her preparations again tomorrow with Angelas help. She settled into bed hoping she’d have no claustrophobic nightmares and tried to relax her thoughts with deep breathing, she concentrated on her chest rising and lowering and soon began to feel the weight of sleep slowly creeping on her. Her mind flashed with the image of  how Jamison smiled at her and her eyes snapped open, the strange warmth blossomed in her stomach again. She grumbled, ignored it and rolled over, pulling the blanket closer around herself, annoyed that he was even bothering her in her thoughts.

[findfederaljobs-blog]

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[junker-town]

How 2017 can show Jeff Brohm was a great hire for Purdue

Even if the Boilermakers don’t win many more games just yet.

This preview originally published June 20 and has since been updated.

The most intriguing hires are the ones that both portend quality and make a nod toward a happy history. The most frustrating hires are the ones that do neither.

Purdue’s hire of Darrell Hazell in 2013 fell into the latter category for me. I gave it a B+ when it was first made, but when the time came to write the Purdue preview that summer, I was increasingly lukewarm. I called it taking the mannequin home — finding the most Big Ten person available, with the deepest Big Ten ties, and asking that guy to win in the Big Ten. Hazell was a longtime Jim Tressel assistant who played safe, focused on defense and ball control, and had had one good year as a head coach.

The hire was sensible, but it in no way acknowledged Purdue’s history. Over the last 60 years, the school has made three good football hires:

Jack Mollenkopf was a high school coaching legend in the Toledo area and spent nearly a decade on Stuart Holcomb’s Purdue staff before taking the job full-time in 1956. By his second year, he had Purdue among the nation’s top 40 in scoring offense. By his fifth, he had the Boilers in the top 15. At the end of the 1960s, two of his players nearly won the Heisman — running back Leroy Keyes finished second to O.J. Simpson in 1968, and quarterback Mike Phipps finished second to Oklahoma’s Steve Owens in 1969.

Jim Young was Bo Schembechler’s defensive coordinator at Michigan, which checks a big BIG TEN box, but before coming to West Lafayette, he had spent four seasons at Arizona. In his third year, the Wildcats were 10th in scoring at 30 points per game. In his fourth, with new skill position starters, they still averaged 25.7 (22nd).

Like Young, Joe Tiller had spent four seasons as a Big Ten defensive coordinator (he was Purdue’s from 1983-86), but he had moved to offensive coordinator at Wyoming and Washington State, and his six years as Wyoming head coach had been marked by aerial innovation. In his last season in Laramie, quarterback Josh Wallwork threw for 4,090 yards, and the Cowboys were seventh in the nation, averaging 38.7 points per game.

These coaches went a combined 208-120-10 with 15 ranked finishes and 14 bowl bids in 31 years. (The number of bowls would have been higher if the Big Ten had been more than a one-bid league during Mollenkopf’s era.)

The other seven Purdue coaches in this span: 115-218-6 in 30 years, with three bowl bids and no ranked finishes.

Purdue has succeeded with an eye toward offense. Hazell was an offensive assistant at Ohio State, Rutgers, etc., but the hire lacked ambition, and it glommed onto someone else's history. Defense and ball control works when you’ve got Ohio State recruits, not whatever Hazell was going to attract to Purdue.

Hazell went 9-33. His recruiting wasn’t good enough to succeed with any style, and the conservatism assured the Boilermakers were both bad and aesthetically unappealing.

Credit new athletic director Mike Bobinski with understanding that both aesthetics and history are important. Bobinski dismissed Hazell midway through a dismal 3-9 campaign — Purdue’s fourth straight season with three or fewer wins and its seventh bowl-free campaign in nine years — and replaced him with the Tiller template: a successful mid-major head coach with a dynamite offense.

Brohm barely has more experience than Hazell; he spent three years as Western Kentucky’s head man, just one more than Hazell spent at Kent State. And while he has aced recent tests, he has plenty of iffy stops on his résumé: his first Louisville offense (2008) fell from ninth to 76th in Off. S&P+, his two seasons as Illinois’ quarterbacks coach (2010-11) were hit-and-miss, and his lone season as UAB coordinator (2012) was a non-starter. Plus, just because his teams score points doesn’t mean he’s destined to win.

Still, it’s hard not to be excited. Bobinski went out and nabbed a guy who’s won 30 games in three years and whose teams scored more points in three years (1,834) than Purdue has scored in six (1,784).

Brohm came to WKU with Bobby Petrino in 2013 and took over when Petrino left for Louisville after one season. He took everything Petrino (and Willie Taggart before him) was building and weaponized it. The Hilltoppers were 61st in S&P+ in his first season and in the top 20 in each of the last two years. They were the highest-ranking Group of Five team both years.

When Brohm has pieces, he knows how to use them. But it might still take him a little while to put pieces together. He inherits a quarterback who threw 21 interceptions last year, a receiving corps that has to replace its top four, and a defense that fell from 58th to 73rd to 99th in Def. S&P+ over the last two years. At WKU, he didn’t have to show patience. But on paper, this was a home run, and Purdue fans have reasons to be excited for the first time in a long while.

2016 in review

2016 Purdue statistical profile.

My 2016 Purdue preview was titled, “Purdue will field a football team in 2016.” We break out the snarky titles only when we’re sure a season is going to be awful.

If you’re scouring for a sliver of hope for 2017, it might be worth noting that Purdue’s mostly young offense — sophomore quarterback, sophomore running back, freshmen and sophomores accounting for 24 of 60 starts on the offensive line — showed some of up-and-down promise throughout the season, both before and after Hazell’s firing.

First 5 games (3-2): Avg. percentile performance: 39% (43% offense, 34% defense) | Avg. yards per play: Opp 5.4, PU 5.4 | Avg. score: Opp 31, PU 26

Last 7 games (0-7): Avg. percentile performance: 31% (42% offense, 27% defense) | Avg. yards per play: Opp 6.8, PU 4.9 | Avg. score: Opp 43, PU 24

The offense wasn’t good, but the high points — 6-plus yards per play in each non-conference game, 6.3 per play and 35 points against Iowa — were reasonably high. The defense, however, fell apart. The line, expected to be a relative strength, was destroyed by injury, and the Boilers had little else to offer.

Offense

Full advanced stats glossary.

If you’re scouring for optimism, you’ve also got this nugget:

QB Mike White, USF, 2014: 50% completion rate, 13.4 yards per completion, 2.9% INT rate, 6.2% sack rate, 5.9 yards per pass attempt (inc. sacks)

QB Mike White, WKU, 2016: 67% completion rate, 15.6 yards per completion, 1.7% INT rate, 4.1% sack rate, 9.8 yards per pass attempt (inc. sacks)

Under the guidance of Brohm and quarterbacks coach/offensive co-coordinator Brian Brohm, White thrived. His USF past was in no way a WKU prologue.

And David Blough’s 2016 was better than White’s 2014 in most categories. Or at least, it wasn’t worse.

QB David Blough, Purdue, 2016: 57% completion rate, 11.4 yards per completion, 4.1% INT rate, 5.1% sack rate, 5.8 yards per pass attempt (inc. sacks)

Blough threw more picks despite throwing shorter passes, but he was also facing better defenses than what White faced; Wisconsin ranked seventh in Def. S&P+, Penn State ranked 14th, Iowa ranked 15th, Minnesota ranked 23rd, Indiana ranked 31st, Northwestern ranked 32nd, and Nebraska ranked 33rd.

Blough was dealt a tough hand, but he still managed 3,352 passing yards and 25 touchdowns to go with his 21 picks, and now he’s under the guidance of QB whisperers. Plus, though the line has to replace three longtime starters, sophomore tackle Matt McCann has potential, and the addition of 6’8 Rhode Island transfer Dave Steinmetz (a three-year starting tackle for the Rams), NIU transfer Shane Evans, and 6’7 redshirt freshman Grant Hermanns offers options and upside.

That all sounds great! Now Blough just needs people to give the ball to. A minor issue, that. DeAngelo Yancey was the bright spot of Purdue’s 2016 offense, finishing with 49 catches for 951 yards. He’s gone. So are the next three on the list: Bilal Marshall, Cameron Posey, and Dominique Young. Running back Markell Jones showed efficiency potential but offered almost no big-play threat; in fact, Purdue had just 32 rushes of 10-plus yards in 2016, fewest in the country.

Sandra Dukes-USA TODAY Sports

Markell Jones

Jones had explosive moments as a freshman in 2015, so perhaps he shouldn’t be written off. But Jones aside, Purdue will be reliant on newcomers, injury returnees, and youngsters.

Running back D.J. Knox returns after missing 2016 with injury. He’s a bouncy 5’7, but didn’t provide much explosiveness.

Receiver Corey Holmes is a four-star Notre Dame transfer with length (6’2) and upside, though he gained just 96 yards in 11 receptions last year.

Running back Brian Lankford-Johnson provided all the explosiveness Jones didn’t, but after gaining 127 yards in 18 carries against Illinois, he carried just 21 times the rest of the year.

Receivers Isaac Zico and Terry Wright are 6’0 JUCO transfers who will be counted on soon.

Receivers Tyler Hamilton and Jackson Anthrop have speed to burn out of the slot, but both are freshmen (Hamilton’s a true freshman, Anthrop a redshirt).

Tight ends Cole Herdman and Brycen Hopkins combined for 45 catches and 527 yards last year; they could be threats, considering the success WKU’s Tyler Higbee had under Brohm in 2015 (38 catches, 563 yards). But this is a mix-and-match set of newbies and guys who didn’t carve out success on a bad 2016 offense. There are almost no seniors, so whoever emerges will provide continuity in 2018, but this might take a while.

Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports

Corey Holmes

Defense

Brohm brought a large portion of his WKU staff with him to West Lafayette, and that includes new defensive co-coordinator Nick Holt.

Holt’s WKU defenses were angry, improving from 118th in Def. S&P+ in 2014 to 43rd in 2016. His 2016 defense dominated run games and forced opponents to the air. Granted, the Hilltoppers struggled to stop opponents through the air, but rendering them one-dimensional was a nice first step. Purdue had no such strength last year.

Brohm also brought Anthony Poindexter as defensive co-coordinator; the former All-American Virginia safety was Bob Diaco’s DC at UConn the last three years, carving out a bend-don’t-break niche that was the polar opposite of Holt’s. We’ll see what that means for Purdue’s philosophy.

Like WKU’s 2016 defense, however, the strength should reside up front. It should have last year, too, but the Boilermakers couldn’t keep anybody healthy. Of the eight primary linemen, only two played in all 12 games, and the other five missed a combined 29 games. Plus, Ja’Whaun Bentley, easily Purdue’s most disruptive linebacker, missed three games.

Bentley’s back, as are sophomore Markus Bailey and senior Danny Ezechukwu. WKU graduate transfer T.J. McCollum joins the rotation, too, and could form one of the better linebacking corps in the Big Ten. Bailey combined six tackles for loss with six passes defensed, and McCollum was a key piece of WKU’s strong run defense.

Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

Markus Bailey

Up front, losing tackle Jake Replogle and end Evan Panfil (combined: 21.5 TFLs, 7.5 sacks) hurts, but four others got decent experience between injuries. Holt and Poindexter are weighing moving 280-pound end Gelen Robinson (8 TFLs) inside, which could provide quickness alongside players like tackles Eddy Wilson and Lorenzo Neal and end Austin Larkin.

Depth could be a concern among the front seven, but the first string could be disruptive. You could have the exact opposite in the secondary, where injuries created depth of experience — seven returnees made at least 6.5 tackles last year — but few known quantities.

Sophomore safety Navon Mosley was asked to take on a huge role early, as were sophomore corner Josh Hayes and juniors Tim Cason, Jacob Thieneman, and Antonio Blackmon. Seniors Da’Wan Hunte (corner) and C.J. Parker (safety) are back as well. There are options, especially considering the addition of mid-three-star recruits T.J. Jallow (a JUCO corner) and Dedrick Mackey (freshman corner), but there’s no guarantee anyone will step up. The pass rush better come through.

Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Navon Mosley (27)

Special Teams

Purdue’s special teams unit was young as hell, with a freshman place-kicker and kickoffs guy (J.D. Dellinger), sophomore punter (Joe Schopper), and freshman kick returner (Brian Lankford-Johnson). So there’s an excuse for why the Boilers ranked 83rd in Special Teams S&P+.

Lankford-Johnson was semi-efficient, and Schopper was downright good, so there’s reason to believe this unit will improve. Dellinger made just 75 percent of his under-40 kicks, though, and barely ever reached the end zone on kickoffs. [Update: Purdue’s since added grad transfer Spencer Evans, a big-legged kicker from Baylor.]

2017 outlook

2017 Schedule & Projection Factors

Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 2-Sep vs. Louisville 14 -24.7 8% 8-Sep Ohio 103 6.3 64% 16-Sep at Missouri 53 -13.1 23% 23-Sep Michigan 10 -24.0 8% 7-Oct Minnesota 47 -8.5 31% 14-Oct at Wisconsin 11 -27.7 5% 21-Oct at Rutgers 92 -1.8 46% 28-Oct Nebraska 42 -9.7 29% 4-Nov Illinois 85 1.8 54% 11-Nov at Northwestern 37 -15.7 18% 18-Nov at Iowa 48 -13.5 22% 25-Nov Indiana 39 -10.6 27%

Projected S&P+ Rk 87 Proj. Off. / Def. Rk 95 / 81 Projected wins 3.4 Five-Year S&P+ Rk -3.8 (86) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 72 / 71 2016 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* -17 / -5.9 2016 TO Luck/Game -4.6 Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 66% (55%, 76%) 2016 Second-order wins (difference) 3.0 (0.0)

Brohm doesn’t inherit a senior-heavy squad. That’s a plus. Granted, seniors could make up about half of the defense, but the odds are good that whoever emerges will return in 2018.

This might not be a full-fledged Year Zero situation, in which the smartest thing to do is strip the house to the studs and start over. Brohm might be able to get mileage out of Blough and some new skill guys, and maybe there’s enough in the defensive front seven to keep the Boilers in games.

Still, the schedule doesn’t include many likely wins, even for a slightly improved team. The Boilermakers will probably beat Ohio and could hope to split tossup games against Rutgers and Illinois and maybe steal an upset against a Missouri or Minnesota or Nebraska or Indiana. But 2017 will be mostly about planting seeds.

Team preview stats

All power conference preview data to date.

[junker-town]

What Bronco Mendenhall’s Virginia needs to avoid another year in obscurity

Of this division’s many excellent coaches, UVA’s is still the one with the toughest task.

As head coaches, David Cutcliffe, Larry Fedora, Justin Fuente, Paul Johnson, Bronco Mendenhall, Pat Narduzzi, and Mark Richt have combined for 654 wins, 62 bowl appearances, 29 ranked finishes, four conference titles, two FCS national titles, and a Broyles Award.

Cutcliffe is Duke’s most consistently successful coach in six decades.

Fedora engineered UNC’s first 11-win season in nearly two decades.

Fuente pulled off a stunning turnaround at Memphis and won the ACC Coastal in his first season at Virginia Tech.

Johnson won two FCS titles at Georgia Southern, made Navy viable, and has two top-15 finishes at Georgia Tech.

Mendenhall went to 11 bowls in 11 years at BYU, won at least nine games six times, and finished 16th or better three times.

Narduzzi pulled off a road upset of national champion Clemson and has won eight games in both of his seasons at Pitt.

Richt engineered 10 10-win seasons, six top-10 finishes, and two SEC titles at Georgia.

All seven are now in the ACC Coastal. And every time they face each other, someone has to lose.

In 2016, that was mostly Mendenhall. It wasn’t hard to see that coming.

The 50-year-old Oregon State alum dealt with unique recruiting challenges at BYU and produced top-50-caliber teams. Now he deals with a different challenge: selling a program that doesn't have the history of its rivals.

Virginia was once the most consistently decent program — in the 25 seasons between 1983 and 2007, the Cavaliers won at least six games 21 times but won 10 only once — but has now bowled just twice in 10 years. They are in the right ACC division (the Clemson- and FSU-free Coastal) but have finished within two games of the division crown only once since 2008.

Mendenhall left BYU in search of a new challenge, and boy, did he find one. His first UVA team was poor out of the gates — which resulted in losses to beatable teams like Richmond, Oregon, and UConn — and found a rhythm just in time to face a murderous stretch of conference foes. The offense had no big-play threats, and the defense had only a couple of play-makers and no depth.

Because of returning production and previous coach Mike London’s decent recruiting, UVA was projected 68th in S&P+; the slow start and limp finish meant a year-end ranking of just 88th.

Worse, this was an experienced team. Mendenhall must replace his two leading rushers, four of his top seven receiving targets, three experienced offensive line starters, four members of a nine-man rotation on the front seven, and everybody who kicked a ball last year.

Now, there weren't many difference makers in this group. But if you start slowly and finish 2-10, you’d rather do it with freshmen and sophomores. This was mostly juniors and seniors.

How long will it take Mendenhall to build the depth last year’s team didn’t have? How long until this begins to look like a Mendenhall team?

It’s hard to know what he’s got, heading into year two. He’s got an experienced quarterback and interesting receivers, but his skill-corps security blanket (running back Taquan Mizzell, who combined 187 carries with 52 receptions) is gone. A decent run defense should hold steady, but the pass defense was bad, and there’s no guarantee that returning the DBs from that secondary is a good thing.

S&P+ sees a team capable of rising into the 60s, and there are enough intriguing sophomores and juniors that you can talk yourself into that.

Mendenhall is a unique dude and was the subject of this from ESPN’s David Hale, one of my favorite profiles of the offseason.

"I started reaching out to anyone that I respected or admired or was having success and just started asking, 'Who are your influences?' or, 'What's the best book you read on this?'" Mendenhall said. "That just started building the library step by step."

Recommendations came with ferocity to the point that Mendenhall had to set a standard for what he'd actually consume. He began taking trips to the bookstore with his kids, adding a few books every week to his collection. The time immersed in reading, he found, also rejuvenated him after the stress of coaching wore him down.

"I'm an introverted, deep thinker who is in an extroverted entertainer's job," Mendenhall said.

Every book gets scrutinized for information that can help his team, too.

Thoughtful can play well in Charlottesville. But it might take him another year or two for any sort of breakthrough on the field.

2016 in review

2016 Virginia statistical profile.

Over the first five games, Virginia played five teams that ended up 72nd or lower (in some cases, much lower) in S&P+. In my 2016 preview, I thought a 3-1 start wasn’t out of the question if the Cavaliers found answers offensively.

Instead, they lost by 17 to Richmond, by 18 to Oregon, and, perhaps most damning, by three to UConn.

UVA responded with its best three performances of the year, wins over CMU and Duke and a competitive, 45-31 loss to Pitt. Then, after playing like a top-40 team, they settled into a top-80 cruising altitude ... against top-25 teams.

First 3 games (0-3): Avg. percentile performance: 23% (14% offense, 25% defense) | Avg. yards per play: Opp 6.6, UVA 5.1 (minus-1.5) | Avg. score: Opp 31, UVA 19

Next 3 games (2-1): Avg. percentile performance: 71% (62% offense, 55% defense) | Avg. yards per play: UVA 6.3, Opp 5.4 (plus-0.9) | Avg. score: UVA 38, Opp 33

Last 6 games (0-6): Avg. percentile performance: 37% (31% offense, 45% defense) | Avg. yards per play: Opp 6.7, UVA 4.1 (minus-2.6) | Avg. score: Opp 35, UVA 17

UVA was 0-3 in one-possession games, dropping competitive battles to Louisville and Wake Forest along with UConn; it didn’t help that the Cavaliers had some of the worst turnovers luck in the country.

What was the source of UVA’s brief offensive eruption, by the way? At first glance, it appears the answer is “balance.” Mizzell rushed 36 times for 234 yards (6.5 per carry) in that three-game span, but he only had to rush 36 times because the passing game was clicking. Kurt Benkert completed 54 percent of his passes at a whopping 14.8 yards per completion; including sacks, he averaged 7.3 yards per pass attempt. Slot receiver Olamide Zaccheaus caught 15 of 21 passes for 266 yards, 12.7 per target.

The rest of the season, Benkert averaged 4.2 yards per attempt, and Zaccheaus averaged 5.7 yards per target. That seems key, huh?

Offense

Full advanced stats glossary.

Robert Anae was Mendenhall’s offensive coordinator for their last three years in Provo, then made the trip with his boss. Anae showed flexibility in adjusting his system for run-happy quarterback Taysom Hill and the more pocket-based Tanner Mangum.

Anae went very pass-first under Mangum and maintained those ways last year. It was the best way to utilize both Benkert and the versatile (but not particularly explosive) Mizzell. But despite pass-heavy tendencies, Virginia managed just 15 passes of 30-plus yards, 94th in the country. Over the second half of the season, against good defenses, there was just nothing downfield.

Mizzell, backup running back Albert Reid, and receiver Keeon Johnson are gone; their production was replaceable (they combined to average five yards per carry and 5.6 yards per target), but it’s not evident who will replace them.

In the backfield, junior Jordan Ellis will likely get the first shot; the first carry of his career, a 39-yard joy ride against William & Mary, flashed a lovely combination of strength and open-field ability. But his 37 carries since then have gained just 96 yards.

The return of Zaccheaus and senior Doni Dowling gives the passing game options; they combined for 7.6 yards per target and a 48 percent success rate last year, which is neither amazing nor awful. But the next three returning receivers — Andre Levrone, Hasise Dubois, Warren Craft — caught just 24 of 56 passes (43 percent).

The best news would be a breakout from Joe Reed. The sophomore was a revelation in the return game last year and caught a 25-yard pass against Pitt and a 28-yarder against Virginia Tech. But those were two of just four receptions. Dubois is exciting, but he caught just eight passes. It’s hard to rely on a pair of receivers with 12 combined catches.

It’s also hard to assume improvement up front. The line must replace three players (Eric Smith, Jackson Matteo, Michael Mooney) who had combined for 97 career starts. Two senior starters return (left tackle Jack English, guard Jack McDonald), and the Hoos have added both Notre Dame transfer John Montelus (a former four-star recruit) and Oklahoma State transfer Brandon Pertile; plus, former four-star recruit Steven Moss still has time to develop into something reliable. Still, the line needs to improve, not just hold steady.

The Hoos still have Benkert, though. The ECU transfer was as inconsistent as his receiving corps last year but added experience and dropped about 15 pounds. At 6’4, 220 (or so) pounds, he looks the part. But he needs more help than he got last year.

Defense

Over his last six seasons at BYU, Mendenhall’s defense graded out better than his offense five times. The Cougar D peaked during the Kyle Van Noy era, ranking sixth in Def. S&P+ in 2012 and 13th in 2013, but it was always steady and aggressive.

One trait translated in Charlottesville. Six members of the starting front seven recorded at least four tackles for loss, led by middle linebacker Micah Kiser and end Andrew Brown. The duo combined for 23 tackles for loss and 12.5 sacks, and Kiser alone added eight passes defensed and five forced fumbles. He is a one-man havoc rate, and if he can get help from the edges, he could produce even bigger numbers.

Brown, a former blue-chipper, is a lovely piece, but if some sophomores step forward, the front seven could be excellent. Linebacker Jordan Mack, tackle James Trucilla, and ends Eli Hanback, Steven Wright, and Juwan Moye saw the field last year, and Mack and Hanback were key. Plus, linebacker Jahvoni Simmons is a former four-star recruit, ILB Dominic Sheppard was a mid-three, and OLB Gladimir Paul is athletic. They’re sophomores, too. And if junior Malcolm Cook breaks through after a serious illness, all the better.

Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Andrew Brown

When the UVA defense was doing well last year, it was usually because of the front seven and run defense. The Cavaliers ranked 55th in Rushing S&P+ but only 89th in Passing S&P+; they allowed a 61 percent completion rate and 13.9 yards per completion with 25 touchdown passes to just nine interceptions. Worse yet: five of those interceptions came in one game. Even against a decent pass rush, opponents were able to look downfield.

Mark Dolejs-USA TODAY Sports

Bryce Hall (34) and Juan Thornhill (21)

That was with well-regarded safety Quin Blanding, a former blue-chipper who defensed eight passes. Just imagine the passing stats without him. But he’s back.

However, cornerback was a revolving door. With 2015 starter Tim Harris injured and others unable to stay on the field, converted safety Juan Thornhill and freshman Bryce Hall were the only stalwarts. They did combine for five INTs and 11 breakups, but the breakdowns were constant.

In theory, this will improve. Including Harris’ 2015 stats, five returning DBs recorded at least one TFL, and six recorded at least two passes defensed. Blanding, Thornhill (back at safety), and sophomore safety Chris Moore are an exciting trio, and Mendenhall and defensive coordinator Nick Howell have options. But when you rank 89th in Passing S&P+, you can improve and still be mediocre.

Special Teams

Good news, bad news.

Good: Virginia ranked in the top 10 in both kick return and punt return efficiency, and big reasons — Joe Reed on kicks, Daniel Hamm on punts — return. They provided a field position boost for a desperate team.

Bad: Four different Cavaliers kicked balls — punter Nicholas Conte, kickoffs guy Dylan Sims, place-kickers Sam Hayward and Alex Furbank — and they’re all gone.

Sort of good: Virginia mostly stunk at kicking anyway. Hayward and Furbank were 5-for-8 on field goals under 40 yards and 0-for-2 over it, and kickoffs and coverage were lacking.

Still bad: Conte was excellent, combining a 44.3-yard punting average with a propensity for fair catches. He will be missed. Redshirt freshman Nash Griffin was a stud in high school. But he’s a redshirt freshman.

2017 outlook

2017 Schedule & Projection Factors

Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 2-Sep William & Mary NR 23.7 91% 9-Sep Indiana 39 -4.4 40% 16-Sep Connecticut 125 18.6 86% 23-Sep at Boise State 29 -11.7 25% 7-Oct Duke 65 -0.3 49% 14-Oct at North Carolina 38 -9.4 29% 21-Oct Boston College 76 4.6 60% 28-Oct at Pittsburgh 33 -10.7 27% 4-Nov Georgia Tech 31 -6.5 35% 11-Nov at Louisville 14 -21.0 11% 18-Nov at Miami 18 -16.4 17% 24-Nov Virginia Tech 25 -8.9 30%

Projected S&P+ Rk 70 Proj. Off. / Def. Rk 82 / 48 Projected wins 5.0 Five-Year S&P+ Rk -0.9 (72) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 58 / 46 2016 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* -9 / 1.0 2016 TO Luck/Game -4.2 Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 74% (64%, 84%) 2016 Second-order wins (difference) 4.0 (-2.0)

Ellis, Zaccheaus, Peace, Cook, and Thornhill are juniors. Reed, Dubois, Hanback, Mack, and Simmons are sophomores. A lot of Virginia’s most important players will be around in 2018, too, and maybe that gives us an idea of the Cavaliers’ arrival timeline (if, you know, one exists).

There are just too many ifs to expect any massive breakthrough this year, but there are winnable home games.

S&P+ doesn’t give UVA a better than 29 percent chance in any of five road games, but the Cavaliers are at 30 percent or better in all seven home games. The best hope for a nice season comes in winning early games against William & Mary, Indiana, UConn, and Duke, beating Boston College a couple of weeks later, and hoping this generates enough confidence to pull a late-season upset.

That offers no margin for error, but it’s a path. More likely: UVA wins four or five games, a couple of sophomores break through, and 2018’s preview is more optimistic.

Team preview stats

All power conference preview data to date.

[junker-town]

How 2017 can show Jeff Brohm was a great hire for Purdue

Even if the Boilermakers don’t win many more games just yet.

The most intriguing hires are the ones that both portend quality and make a nod toward a happy history. The most frustrating hires are the ones that do neither.

Purdue’s hire of Darrell Hazell in 2013 fell into the latter category for me. I gave it a B+ when it was first made, but when the time came to write the Purdue preview that summer, I was increasingly lukewarm. I called it taking the mannequin home — finding the most Big Ten person available, with the deepest Big Ten ties, and asking that guy to win in the Big Ten. Hazell was a longtime Jim Tressel assistant who played safe, focused on defense and ball control, and had had one good year as a head coach.

The hire was sensible, but it in no way acknowledged Purdue’s history. Over the last 60 years, the school has made three good football hires:

Jack Mollenkopf was a high school coaching legend in the Toledo area and spent nearly a decade on Stuart Holcomb’s Purdue staff before taking the job full-time in 1956. By his second year, he had Purdue among the nation’s top 40 in scoring offense. By his fifth, he had the Boilers in the top 15. At the end of the 1960s, two of his players nearly won the Heisman — running back Leroy Keyes finished second to O.J. Simpson in 1968, and quarterback Mike Phipps finished second to Oklahoma’s Steve Owens in 1969.

Jim Young was Bo Schembechler’s defensive coordinator at Michigan, which checks a big BIG TEN box, but before coming to West Lafayette, he had spent four seasons at Arizona. In his third year, the Wildcats were 10th in scoring at 30 points per game. In his fourth, with new skill position starters, they still averaged 25.7 (22nd).

Like Young, Joe Tiller had spent four seasons as a Big Ten defensive coordinator (he was Purdue’s from 1983-86), but he had moved to offensive coordinator at Wyoming and Washington State, and his six years as Wyoming head coach had been marked by aerial innovation. In his last season in Laramie, quarterback Josh Wallwork threw for 4,090 yards, and the Cowboys were seventh in the nation, averaging 38.7 points per game.

These coaches went a combined 208-120-10 with 15 ranked finishes and 14 bowl bids in 31 years. (The number of bowls would have been higher if the Big Ten had been more than a one-bid league during Mollenkopf’s era.)

The other seven Purdue coaches in this span: 115-218-6 in 30 years, with three bowl bids and no ranked finishes.

Purdue has succeeded with an eye toward offense. Hazell was an offensive assistant at Ohio State, Rutgers, etc., but the hire lacked ambition, and it glommed onto someone else's history. Defense and ball control works when you’ve got Ohio State recruits, not whatever Hazell was going to attract to Purdue.

Hazell went 9-33. His recruiting wasn’t good enough to succeed with any style, and the conservatism assured the Boilermakers were both bad and aesthetically unappealing.

Credit new athletic director Mike Bobinski with understanding that both aesthetics and history are important. Bobinski dismissed Hazell midway through a dismal 3-9 campaign — Purdue’s fourth straight season with three or fewer wins and its seventh bowl-free campaign in nine years — and replaced him with the Tiller template: a successful mid-major head coach with a dynamite offense.

Brohm barely has more experience than Hazell; he spent three years as Western Kentucky’s head man, just one more than Hazell spent at Kent State. And while he has aced recent tests, he has plenty of iffy stops on his résumé: his first Louisville offense (2008) fell from ninth to 76th in Off. S&P+, his two seasons as Illinois’ quarterbacks coach (2010-11) were hit-and-miss, and his lone season as UAB coordinator (2012) was a non-starter. Plus, just because his teams score points doesn’t mean he’s destined to win.

Still, it’s hard not to be excited. Bobinski went out and nabbed a guy who’s won 30 games in three years and whose teams scored more points in three years (1,834) than Purdue has scored in six (1,784).

Brohm came to WKU with Bobby Petrino in 2013 and took over when Petrino left for Louisville after one season. He took everything Petrino (and Willie Taggart before him) was building and weaponized it. The Hilltoppers were 61st in S&P+ in his first season and in the top 20 in each of the last two years. They were the highest-ranking Group of Five team both years.

When Brohm has pieces, he knows how to use them. But it might still take him a little while to put pieces together. He inherits a quarterback who threw 21 interceptions last year, a receiving corps that has to replace its top four, and a defense that fell from 58th to 73rd to 99th in Def. S&P+ over the last two years. At WKU, he didn’t have to show patience. But on paper, this was a home run, and Purdue fans have reasons to be excited for the first time in a long while.

2016 in review

2016 Purdue statistical profile.

My 2016 Purdue preview was titled, “Purdue will field a football team in 2016.” We break out the snarky titles only when we’re sure a season is going to be awful.

If you’re scouring for a sliver of hope for 2017, it might be worth noting that Purdue’s mostly young offense — sophomore quarterback, sophomore running back, freshmen and sophomores accounting for 24 of 60 starts on the offensive line — showed some of up-and-down promise throughout the season, both before and after Hazell’s firing.

First 5 games (3-2): Avg. percentile performance: 39% (43% offense, 34% defense) | Avg. yards per play: Opp 5.4, PU 5.4 | Avg. score: Opp 31, PU 26

Last 7 games (0-7): Avg. percentile performance: 31% (42% offense, 27% defense) | Avg. yards per play: Opp 6.8, PU 4.9 | Avg. score: Opp 43, PU 24

The offense wasn’t good, but the high points — 6-plus yards per play in each non-conference game, 6.3 per play and 35 points against Iowa — were reasonably high. The defense, however, fell apart. The line, expected to be a relative strength, was destroyed by injury, and the Boilers had little else to offer.

Offense

Full advanced stats glossary.

If you’re scouring for optimism, you’ve also got this nugget:

QB Mike White, USF, 2014: 50% completion rate, 13.4 yards per completion, 2.9% INT rate, 6.2% sack rate, 5.9 yards per pass attempt (inc. sacks)

QB Mike White, WKU, 2016: 67% completion rate, 15.6 yards per completion, 1.7% INT rate, 4.1% sack rate, 9.8 yards per pass attempt (inc. sacks)

Under the guidance of Brohm and quarterbacks coach/offensive co-coordinator Brian Brohm, White thrived. His USF past was in no way a WKU prologue.

And David Blough’s 2016 was better than White’s 2014 in most categories. Or at least, it wasn’t worse.

QB David Blough, Purdue, 2016: 57% completion rate, 11.4 yards per completion, 4.1% INT rate, 5.1% sack rate, 5.8 yards per pass attempt (inc. sacks)

Blough threw more picks despite throwing shorter passes, but he was also facing better defenses than what White faced; Wisconsin ranked seventh in Def. S&P+, Penn State ranked 14th, Iowa ranked 15th, Minnesota ranked 23rd, Indiana ranked 31st, Northwestern ranked 32nd, and Nebraska ranked 33rd.

Blough was dealt a tough hand, but he still managed 3,352 passing yards and 25 touchdowns to go with his 21 picks, and now he’s under the guidance of QB whisperers. Plus, though the line has to replace three longtime starters, sophomore tackle Matt McCann has potential, and the addition of 6’8 Rhode Island transfer Dave Steinmetz (a three-year starting tackle for the Rams), NIU transfer Shane Evans, and 6’7 redshirt freshman Grant Hermanns offers options and upside.

That all sounds great! Now Blough just needs people to give the ball to. A minor issue, that. DeAngelo Yancey was the bright spot of Purdue’s 2016 offense, finishing with 49 catches for 951 yards. He’s gone. So are the next three on the list: Bilal Marshall, Cameron Posey, and Dominique Young. Running back Markell Jones showed efficiency potential but offered almost no big-play threat; in fact, Purdue had just 32 rushes of 10-plus yards in 2016, fewest in the country.

Sandra Dukes-USA TODAY Sports

Markell Jones

Jones had explosive moments as a freshman in 2015, so perhaps he shouldn’t be written off. But Jones aside, Purdue will be reliant on newcomers, injury returnees, and youngsters.

Running back D.J. Knox returns after missing 2016 with injury. He’s a bouncy 5’7, but didn’t provide much explosiveness.

Receiver Corey Holmes is a four-star Notre Dame transfer with length (6’2) and upside, though he gained just 96 yards in 11 receptions last year.

Running back Brian Lankford-Johnson provided all the explosiveness Jones didn’t, but after gaining 127 yards in 18 carries against Illinois, he carried just 21 times the rest of the year.

Receivers Isaac Zico and Terry Wright are 6’0 JUCO transfers who will be counted on soon.

Receivers Tyler Hamilton and Jackson Anthrop have speed to burn out of the slot, but both are freshmen (Hamilton’s a true freshman, Anthrop a redshirt).

Tight ends Cole Herdman and Brycen Hopkins combined for 45 catches and 527 yards last year; they could be threats, considering the success WKU’s Tyler Higbee had under Brohm in 2015 (38 catches, 563 yards). But this is a mix-and-match set of newbies and guys who didn’t carve out success on a bad 2016 offense. There are almost no seniors, so whoever emerges will provide continuity in 2018, but this might take a while.

Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports

Corey Holmes

Defense

Brohm brought a large portion of his WKU staff with him to West Lafayette, and that includes new defensive co-coordinator Nick Holt.

Holt’s WKU defenses were angry, improving from 118th in Def. S&P+ in 2014 to 43rd in 2016. His 2016 defense dominated run games and forced opponents to the air. Granted, the Hilltoppers struggled to stop opponents through the air, but rendering them one-dimensional was a nice first step. Purdue had no such strength last year.

Brohm also brought Anthony Poindexter as defensive co-coordinator; the former All-American Virginia safety was Bob Diaco’s DC at UConn the last three years, carving out a bend-don’t-break niche that was the polar opposite of Holt’s. We’ll see what that means for Purdue’s philosophy.

Like WKU’s 2016 defense, however, the strength should reside up front. It should have last year, too, but the Boilermakers couldn’t keep anybody healthy. Of the eight primary linemen, only two played in all 12 games, and the other five missed a combined 29 games. Plus, Ja’Whaun Bentley, easily Purdue’s most disruptive linebacker, missed three games.

Bentley’s back, as are sophomore Markus Bailey and senior Danny Ezechukwu. WKU graduate transfer T.J. McCollum joins the rotation, too, and could form one of the better linebacking corps in the Big Ten. Bailey combined six tackles for loss with six passes defensed, and McCollum was a key piece of WKU’s strong run defense.

Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

Markus Bailey

Up front, losing tackle Jake Replogle and end Evan Panfil (combined: 21.5 TFLs, 7.5 sacks) hurts, but four others got decent experience between injuries. Holt and Poindexter are weighing moving 280-pound end Gelen Robinson (8 TFLs) inside, which could provide quickness alongside players like tackles Eddy Wilson and Lorenzo Neal and end Austin Larkin.

Depth could be a concern among the front seven, but the first string could be disruptive. You could have the exact opposite in the secondary, where injuries created depth of experience — seven returnees made at least 6.5 tackles last year — but few known quantities.

Sophomore safety Navon Mosley was asked to take on a huge role early, as were sophomore corner Josh Hayes and juniors Tim Cason, Jacob Thieneman, and Antonio Blackmon. Seniors Da’Wan Hunte (corner) and C.J. Parker (safety) are back as well. There are options, especially considering the addition of mid-three-star recruits T.J. Jallow (a JUCO corner) and Dedrick Mackey (freshman corner), but there’s no guarantee anyone will step up. The pass rush better come through.

Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Navon Mosley (27)

Special Teams

Purdue’s special teams unit was young as hell, with a freshman place-kicker and kickoffs guy (J.D. Dellinger), sophomore punter (Joe Schopper), and freshman kick returner (Brian Lankford-Johnson). So there’s an excuse for why the Boilers ranked 83rd in Special Teams S&P+.

Lankford-Johnson was semi-efficient, and Schopper was downright good, so there’s reason to believe this unit will improve. Dellinger made just 75 percent of his under-40 kicks, though, and barely ever reached the end zone on kickoffs.

2017 outlook

2017 Schedule & Projection Factors

Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 2-Sep vs. Louisville 14 -24.7 8% 8-Sep Ohio 103 6.3 64% 16-Sep at Missouri 53 -13.1 23% 23-Sep Michigan 10 -24.0 8% 7-Oct Minnesota 47 -8.5 31% 14-Oct at Wisconsin 11 -27.7 5% 21-Oct at Rutgers 92 -1.8 46% 28-Oct Nebraska 42 -9.7 29% 4-Nov Illinois 85 1.8 54% 11-Nov at Northwestern 37 -15.7 18% 18-Nov at Iowa 48 -13.5 22% 25-Nov Indiana 39 -10.6 27%

Projected S&P+ Rk 87 Proj. Off. / Def. Rk 95 / 81 Projected wins 3.4 Five-Year S&P+ Rk -3.8 (86) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 72 / 71 2016 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* -17 / -5.9 2016 TO Luck/Game -4.6 Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 66% (55%, 76%) 2016 Second-order wins (difference) 3.0 (0.0)

Brohm doesn’t inherit a senior-heavy squad. That’s a plus. Granted, seniors could make up about half of the defense, but the odds are good that whoever emerges will return in 2018.

This might not be a full-fledged Year Zero situation, in which the smartest thing to do is strip the house to the studs and start over. Brohm might be able to get mileage out of Blough and some new skill guys, and maybe there’s enough in the defensive front seven to keep the Boilers in games.

Still, the schedule doesn’t include many likely wins, even for a slightly improved team. The Boilermakers will probably beat Ohio and could hope to split tossup games against Rutgers and Illinois and maybe steal an upset against a Missouri or Minnesota or Nebraska or Indiana. But 2017 will be mostly about planting seeds.

Team preview stats

All power conference preview data to date.

[junker-town]

Willie Fritz has a trend, but unfortunately, so does Tulane football in general

The Green Wave head coach tends to get his teams in gear by year two. Hey, it’s year two now.

On November 30, 1974, Tulane closed its home stadium in a sadly appropriate way.

The Green Wave had been in the middle of a mini-renaissance under Bennie Ellender, having finished 9-3 and 20th in the country in 1973 — only the second ranked finish in 23 years for the former SEC team. But after starting 1974 with five wins and rising to 18th, they plummeted. Amid a five-game losing streak came losses to former SEC foes Georgia Tech, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and LSU. And on the final Saturday of the regular season, Ole Miss visited.

On an unseasonably cold Saturday in front of only 21,628 in the chasmic Tulane Stadium — many of them in the Rebels’ red and navy — Tulane fell behind 19-0 in the third quarter.

Despite outgaining the Rebels by a 349-196 margin, an incredible nine turnovers did the Green Wave in. Ole Miss won, 26-10, and a few years later, Tulane Stadium, home of three Super Bowls, Tom Dempsey's 63-yard field goal, and 80,000 fans at its peak, came crashing to the ground.

In the decades that followed, Tulane acted like a program without a home. The Green Wave played in the Superdome and tended to hire impressive coaches. Future USC head coach Larry Smith went 9-3 in 1979 and left for Arizona, while it took just a 6-6 campaign for Mack Brown to get the North Carolina job.

Tommy Bowden needed only two seasons to go from 2-9 to 12-0 in the 1990s. Tulane went unbeaten in 1998, Bowden (and offensive coordinator Rich Rodriguez) left, and the Green Wave would bowl just once in the next 14 years.

Tulane has long had an identity crisis. Admissions standards have made things tricky, and program support has waxed and waned; having an off-campus stadium certainly didn't help.

At the least, Tulane is trying to get its act together. That it made a nice hire in turnaround artist Willie Fritz made sense, but it also opened a lovely on-campus stadium, the unique Yulman Stadium, in 2014. It joined what was supposed to be the Big East (and became the AAC) around the same time. It is following the script you’re supposed to follow when you’re a metro-area school trying to generate excitement.

Now there’s one step remaining: win. Curtis Johnson couldn’t do it; he went 7-6 in 2013 thanks to an awesome, transfer-reliant defense, but in three other seasons, went 8-28. And in Fritz’s first season, the Green Wave went 4-8.

Fritz doesn’t mind first-year resets, but he’s usually found his groove by year two.

In his second year at Blinn College, his Buccaneers won the NJCAA national title.

In his second year at Central Missouri, the Mules went from 5-6 to 8-3.

In his second year at Sam Houston State, the Bearkats went from 6-5 to 14-1.

And in his second year at Georgia Southern, the Eagles made their first bowl in their first bowl-eligible season.

Tulane certainly brings back lots of important pieces. That’s the plus of a youth movement — youth turns into experience. Fritz played a freshman and a sophomore at quarterback, included three freshmen and a sophomore in the receiving corps, and handed freshmen and sophomores 30 starts on the offensive line.

They’re all sophomores and juniors now. Meanwhile, the defense, which improved dramatically in Jack Curtis’ first year in charge, is made mostly of juniors and seniors.

Tulane is and will remain a hard job. That is the case for any team that has stricter admission standards than its conference mates and minimal recent success. But Fritz has a track record; we’ll just see if it’s stronger than Tulane’s.

2016 in review

2016 Tulane statistical profile.

Fritz’s calling card has been a modernized option, one that runs the ball as much as anyone but does so out of spread sets. With the right personnel, it is devastating.

When you take over at a new job, however, you might not start out with the right personnel. And when you take a job at a school that hasn’t ranked better than 112th in Off. S&P+ since 2010, you almost certainly don’t.

Tulane’s 2016 team had what I’ll politely call a consistent offense. It was consistently bad, and the defense stopped being able to keep the Green Wave in games.

First 6 games (3-3): Avg. percentile performance: 39% (32% offense, 63% defense) | Avg. yards per play: Tulane 4.9, Opp 4.8 (plus-0.1)

Last 6 games (1-5): Avg. percentile performance: 31% (33% offense, 45% defense) | Avg. yards per play: Opp 6.0, Tulane 4.8 (minus-1.2)

Tulane averaged 7.1 yards per play against Southern U. in Week 2 but otherwise never topped the national average of 5.8. The defense showed major promise but couldn’t keep the starters on the field. Only about half of its regulars lasted all 12 games, and depth issues in the back caught up.

Tulane held opponents to just a 54 percent completion rate but over the second half of the season allowed 14.3 yards per completion. The big plays added up, and after allowing just one opponent to score more than 24 points in the first six games, Tulane allowed five in a row to do so. There were still some competitive moments — a 35-31 loss to SMU, a 30-18 loss at Houston — but Tulane wore out.

Offense

Full advanced stats glossary.

The Fritz-Doug Ruse relationship has been immensely fruitful. Ruse, former offensive coordinator at Arkansas State and Western Illinois, joined Fritz at Sam Houston State in 2012, and the two found they were kindred spirits.

In two years at SHSU, the Fritz-Ruse offense averaged 40.6 points per game and 6.4 yards per play. In two proceeding years at Georgia Southern, the Eagles averaged 37.8 points per game and 6.9 yards per play. They inherited perfect option personnel from Jeff Monken at GASO and utilized it perfectly.

The personnel they inherited at Tulane: less perfect. Sophomore quarterback Glen Cuiellette averaged just 3.3 yards per carry (not including sacks) and 4.7 yards per pass attempt. Freshman backup Johnathan Brantley got some playing time and averaged 5.3 yards per carry; he also gained 24 net yards in 24 pass attempts.

The result: an efficiency-based, run-heavy offense that was inefficient and couldn’t run.

There’s no guarantee the quarterback will be any better this fall, but at least familiarity won’t be as much of an issue. Cuiellette and Brantley are entering their second year in the system, and they’re getting added competition from JUCO transfer Jonathan Banks. At the least, choosing from three semi-experienced options is better than choosing from two inexperienced ones.

Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports

Dontrell Hilliard

It won’t hurt that the rest of the offense should be in decent shape this time. Senior running back Dontrell Hilliard was a bright spot last year, averaging 5.6 yards per carry and coming on strong in the middle of the year.

Hilliard rushed 25 times for 235 yards against Tulsa and SMU and gave the Green Wave a boost they otherwise lacked down the stretch. And while Josh Rounds and Lazedrick Thompson (combined: 1,264 yards, 6.0 per carry) are gone, between senior Sherman Badie, converted quarterback Darius Bradwell, redshirt freshman Miles Strickland, and freshman Stephon Huderson, a couple of decent options should emerge. And they’ll be running behind a line that features four sophomores and juniors with starting experience, plus JUCO transfer Dominique Briggs and Miami transfer Hunter Knighton.

The receiving corps at least has more experience. Junior-to-be Terren Encalade was Tulane’s “leading” receiver, but he caught just 36 of 74 passes out of the slot and produced a 35 percent success rate, about 10 to 15 percent lower than you’d like to see from a slot receiver. Meanwhile, three freshmen were targeted at least 10 times, but they were almost completely unproductive. Darnell Mooney caught 24 of 56 passes and averaged just 4.8 yards per target (he had seven catches for 63 against Houston), while backups Chris Johnson and D.J. Owens combined two catch two of 24 passes for the season, an almost unfathomably bad catch rate.

At 6’2 and 215 pounds, JUCO transfer Jabril Clewis will give the receiving corps a bit of extra size, and mid-three-star redshirt freshman Jacob Robertson Jr. could theoretically give the Tulane QB of choice a decent deep option. But this unit is still mostly unproven. So, too, are the quarterbacks. And it goes without saying that Tulane’s offensive ceiling is limited until Fritz, Ruse, and company get that position figured out.

David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

Glen Cuiellette

Defense

That Curtis was able to get the defense rolling more quickly than the offense made perfect sense. Curtis Johnson put a couple of awesome defenses on the field during his four-year Tulane tenure; the Green Wave ranked 18th in Def. S&P+ in 2013 and held on for 45th in 2014. They collapsed in 2015, but Curtis inherited some solid pieces and figured out what to do with them, at least for half a season. And because of injury and attrition, the backups got decent minutes as well.

The front seven has to replace a couple of stars in linebacker Nico Marley (14 tackles for loss) and tackle Tanzel Smart (18.5). That hurts, but it’s almost literally all the Green Wave lose. Eight starters are back, as are 10 second-stringers. And while Fritz felt the need to bring in JUCOs at quarterback, receiver, and offensive line, he brought in none for the defense. There was no need.

Tulane was brilliant at forcing passing downs in 2016. The Green Wave were aggressive against the pass and almost completely prevented big runs. If you were patient, you could move the ball on the ground, but Tulane still ranked 25th in opponent-adjusted Standard Downs S&P+.

Their Passing Downs S&P+ ranking: 93rd. A mediocre pass rush (77th in passing downs sack rate) led to Curtis taking fewer chances with his secondary in those situation, and the result was an opponent passer rating that went from 116.4 on first downs to 130.4 on third.

Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Ade Aruna

The pass rush was basically limited to four options: Smart (5.5 sacks), Ade Aruna (5), Marley (3), and tackle Sean Wilson (3). Aruna and Wilson are back, and former backups like tackle Eldrick Washington and end Quinlan Carroll have shown decent attacking potential.

If the defensive front can generate a bit more pressure, then Curtis could get creative in how he uses other attacking pieces like linebacker Zachery Harris and safeties Jarrod Franklin (who could be dynamite at the nickel back position this year) and Roderic Teamer. And if they’re creating havoc, corners Donnie Lewis Jr. and Parry Nickerson (combined in 2016: six interceptions, 18 breakups) could create even more.

The trajectory of this defense is pretty obvious. The line is a bit senior-heavy, and Franklin and Nickerson each have only one year of eligibility left as well. But there are lots of exciting juniors and quite a few intriguing redshirt freshmen, from three-stars De’Andre Williams and Deion Rainey on the line to corner Tre Jackson in the back. The major question is simply, how much longer will the defense have to carry such a heavy load?

Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images

Roderic Teamer (38) and Donnie Lewis Jr. (21)

Special Teams

Good news: almost everyone is back from last year’s special teams unit, and the one guy the Green Wave have to replace (kicker Andrew DiRocco) was maybe their least effective.

Bad news: nobody else was particularly effective either. Tulane ranked 117th in Special Teams S&P+, and while DiRocco indeed missed a couple of shorter kicks, Zachary Block’s punts and kickoffs were too frequently returnable, Dontrell Hilliard didn’t produce much in punt returns, and Sherman Badie was drastically all-or-nothing in kick returns. But Badie’s “alls” were pretty impressive, at least.

2017 outlook

2017 Schedule & Projection Factors

Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 2-Sep Grambling State NR 14.0 79% 9-Sep at Navy 71 -9.5 29% 16-Sep at Oklahoma 5 -33.4 3% 23-Sep Army 102 4.4 60% 7-Oct Tulsa 77 -3.1 43% 14-Oct at Florida International 104 -0.2 50% 21-Oct South Florida 56 -9.1 30% 27-Oct at Memphis 61 -13.6 22% 4-Nov Cincinnati 75 -3.3 42% 11-Nov at East Carolina 100 -1.3 47% 18-Nov Houston 49 -10.0 28% 25-Nov at SMU 81 -5.7 37%

Projected S&P+ Rk 94 Proj. Off. / Def. Rk 120 / 47 Projected wins 4.7 Five-Year S&P+ Rk -10.2 (112) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 93 / 89 2016 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* 9 / 1.2 2016 TO Luck/Game +3.3 Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 80% (81%, 80%) 2016 Second-order wins (difference) 5.0 (-1.0)

There are two different histories at work, and they color our perceptions of Tulane.

Fritz’s history all but guarantees second-year success, and his second-year squad brings plenty of experience to the table.

Tulane’s own history, though, suggests a constantly uphill battle. The Green Wave have finished with a winning record just once in 14 years; it did happen in Curtis Johnson’s second year, I guess, so there’s that.

The numbers don’t care about narratives, but they, too, hint at second-year progress. S&P+ projects Tulane 94th overall — 120th on offense, 47th on defense — and says the Green Wave’s most likely record is about 5-7. That’s not the breakthrough Fritz is used to, but it would be something.

There will be plenty of tossups. Tulane is given between a 37 and 60 percent chance of winning in six games, with one likely win and five likely losses. The Wave could again be around 3-3 midseason, but progress and tossups will determine whether they’re fighting for a bowl, or whether this is Fritz’s first second-year misstep in quite a while.

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[junker-town]

Ball State is the MAC’s most MAC team. Is that good or bad for 2017?

Let’s find out!

In 1929, sociologists Robert and Helen Lynd published Middletown: A Study in Modern American Culture, an enduring work that was designed to study your average small American city over a long period. They chose Muncie, Indiana.

This made sense for any number of economic or demographic reasons. It also shows writers’ inclinations toward looking at the Midwest as “real” America isn’t a recent construct.

It’s also kind of funny to think about because if you were looking to study the most run-of-the-mill MAC football program, you would look toward the one housed in Muncie.

Ball State fits every MAC personality trait you can think of.

Losing successful coaches to Big Ten jobs? Check. Dave McClain went 26-7 from 1975-77 (BSU’s first three years in the MAC) and won a conference title, then got plucked by Wisconsin. And in roundabout ways, Bill Lynch (to Indiana via DePauw) and Brady Hoke (to Michigan via San Diego State) used Muncie as a Big Ten prep course.

Semi-drastic ups and downs? Yep. You can rise or fall quickly in this conference, and in the last decade, Ball State has gone from 12-2 in 2008 to 2-10 in 2009 and from 10-3 in 2013 to 3-9 in 2015. In the 1990s, the Cardinals both went to two Last Vegas Bowls and finished 1-10 or worse twice.

An offense much further along than the defense? Oh yes. Over the last 10 years, Ball State has ranked 65th or better in Off. S&P+ six times, peaking at 19th in 2012. In that same time frame, the Cardinals have not ranked better than 83rd in Def. S&P+. They haven’t cracked even the top 100 since 2013.

In 42 years at the FBS level, Ball State has won zero, one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, 10, and 12 games in a season at least once each. A long-term study of the Cardinals is a long-term study of MAC existence.

But despite what we might call a normal MAC life, it’s not like the school has a set type of coach. Far from it.

McClain (1971-77) was a Woody Hayes disciple.

Dwight Wallace (1978-84) was a career offense guy and had spent four years as a Colorado assistant.

Paul Schudel (1985-94) was a Bo Schembechler disciple.

Lynch (1995-2002) was a small-school head coach at Butler.

Hoke (2003-08) was a Ball State alum and longtime Michigan assistant.

Stan Parrish (2009-10) was a coaching lifer with head coaching gigs at Wabash, Marshall, and Kansas State.

Pete Lembo (2011-15) had spent his previous 10 years as head coach at Lehigh and Elon.

BSU has alternated between Typical MAC Profile (i.e. guy with Ohio State or Michigan ties) and wildcards. And in replacing Lembo with Neu, the school leaned heavily into the latter.

As Ball State quarterback, Neu was the MAC’s offensive player of the year in 1993. He played in the CFL (Calgary Stampeders) and Arena League (Orlando Predators, Nashville Kats). By 1999, he was Nashville’s offensive coordinator, and by 2004 he was head coach of the AFL’s New Orleans VooDoo. When the team was shuttered, he joined the Saints as an assistant and spent a couple of years as Tulane’s QBs coach.

Professional playing experience? Professional head coaching experience? Recent college coaching experience? Neu crafted a unique résumé off of the normal grid. And in 2016, he showed significant promise.

2016 in review

2016 Ball State statistical profile.

Lembo’s last couple of BSU teams lost their way. The Cardinals won 19 games in 2012-13 with an extreme efficiency offense, and when the offense lost some difference-makers and stumbled, the defense had no chance of picking up slack. They won just eight games in 2014-15, and Lembo left for a Maryland assistant position.

Under Neu, the defense wasn’t suddenly great, but it was better; the Cardinals improved from 116th to 101st in Def. S&P+. The offense, meanwhile, began to show signs of peak Lembo-era efficiency.

Granted, this wasn’t enough to spark a surge in the win column. A combination of tight losses and a late-year defensive collapse made sure of that.

First 7 games (4-3) — Avg. score: BSU 28, Opp 24 | Avg. percentile performance: 46% (~top 70) | Avg. yards per play: Opp 5.8, BSU 5.5

Last 5 games (0-5) — Avg. score: Opp 39, BSU 25 | Avg. percentile performance: 31% (~top 90) | Avg. yards per play: Opp 7.1, BSU 5.8

The run defense began allowing about a yard more per carry, and the pass defense collapsed; over the last five games, the Cardinals allowed a 155.4 passer rating. There doesn’t seem to have been a single injury that was a catalyst for collapse, but the Cardinals’ inability to get off the field on passing downs might have had a cumulative effect. And while the offense remained sound, it couldn’t raise its game enough to keep up.

Still, the improvement was obvious, even if it trailed off. It was something to build on, though the Cardinals have to replace just enough to make you wonder how much more can be expected in year two.

Offense

Full advanced stats glossary.

In 2012, the Cardinals ranked 19th in Off. S&P+ thanks to monstrous efficiency. Keith Wenning completed 65 percent of his passes and averaged just 10.3 yards per completion. Jahwan Edwards and Horactio Banks averaged 5.8 yards per carry but with few huge, explosive runs. BSU just picked you apart, five to seven yards at a time.

It was hard to stand out offensively in the MAC in 2016. Eight of 12 offenses averaged between 1.24 and 1.35 IsoPPP (isolated points per successful play), and eight had a success rate between 36 and 43 percent. The range was tight.

BSU had the third-best success rate in the conference and by far the worst explosiveness. The Cardinals had a reasonably healthy 102 passes of 10-plus yards (82nd in FBS), but only 11 gained 30-plus (119th). Of the five players who caught more than 15 passes in 2016, none averaged more than 11.4 yards per catch, and three averaged under 10.

Four are back, though. So is quarterback Riley Neal. The junior has already started for most of two years, and after an inefficient start, he completed 63 percent over the last nine games of the season. Interceptions were an issue; after throwing only six in 2015, he doubled that. Still, the 6’6, 220-pound Neal can run (on about 10 non-sack carries per game, he averaged 6.1 yards per carry), and the efficiency potential is obvious.

Plus, he has his best possession man back in Corey Lacanaria. The 5’8 senior caught 79 percent of the passes thrown his way last year, albeit at only 10.3 yards per catch.

Still, the Cardinals have turnover in the receiving corps. KeVonn Mabon graduated after catching 304 balls in his career, and sophomore-to-be Damon Hazelton Jr. elected to transfer. That leaves Lacanaria, senior Jordan Hogue, and junior Devin Reece as the only returning wideouts to catch a pass.

Reinforcements could be on the way, but they’re young. Sophomore tight ends Danny Pinter and Kyle Schrank could feature, as could a pair of redshirt freshman tight ends, Nolan Givan (a former 247Sports Composite three-star) and Dylan Koch. Lord knows tight ends can be palatable weapons in an efficiency offense.

Meanwhile, the search for upside at wideout could lead Neu to tear off some redshirts. Three-star true freshmen Khalil Newton, Justin Gibbs, and/or Justin Hall could be tempting.

Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports

James Gilbert

Any big-play potential Ball State had last year was featured in the run game. James Gilbert’s average of 5.23 highlight yards per opportunity was above average, and in minimal opportunities (just 24 carries), Malik Dunner averaged 6.1 yards per carry as a freshman.

Still, the run game was also more efficient than it was explosive. And BSU returns Gilbert, Dunner, and utility man Darian Green, who both ran efficiently and caught 24 passes. And if Neu and coordinator Joey Lynch — a carryover from the Lembo era — decide they need bigger backs to go with this trio of smaller guys, then either of two three-star freshmen (226-pound Caleb Huntley or 207-pound Kevin Dominique) might carve out a niche.

Ball State’s offense will be this year what it was last year. Turnover could hinder upside, but the run game could improve, especially with what are basically 3.5 returning starters on the line.

Caylor Arnold-USA TODAY Sports

Darian Green

Defense

Within a decade of his graduation from Butler University, David Elson was a head coach. He spent two years as Jack Harbaugh’s defensive coordinator in 2001-02 at Western Kentucky, then succeeded the legendary head coach.

Elson had a couple of top-15 finishes at the FCS level and oversaw the Hilltoppers’ move to FBS ... and then bombed. In 2008, WKU went 2-0 against FCS opponents and 0-10 against FBS. In 2009, the Toppers went 0-12, and Elson had a career to rebuild.

The rebuilding process has taken him a lot of places. After year as a quality control guy at Indiana (for Bill Lynch, strangely enough), he served as a high school coordinator in Kentucky, then took over as DC at New Mexico State just in time for head coach DeWayne Walker to get fired. He was DC at Southern Illinois in 2015 and Western Illinois in 2016 before finding another FBS coordinator role.

Elson’s WIU defense was pretty aggressive, recording 87 tackles for loss and 69 passes defensed and logging a havoc rate of 17.2 percent, which would have ranked about 35th at the FBS level. His first Ball State defense nearly matched that; the Cardinals were 41st in havoc, 81 spots higher than Lembo’s bend-don’t-break unit managed in 2015.

The variety was impressive. Six Cardinals recorded at least 6.5 tackles for loss, seven sacked the quarterback at least twice, and six defensed at least three passes. It was quite the identity shift for this personnel, and it worked for a while.

Two problems:

BSU did everything but close the deal. The Cardinals ranked 13th in standard downs line yards per carry and 21st in rushing success rate, then went hard after the quarterback once the opponent was leveraged into passing downs (25th in passing downs sack rate). And yet, they still ranked 117th in Passing Downs S&P+. If the QB wasn’t getting sacked, he was finding receivers downfield. Once per game, opponents completed a pass of 15-plus yards on third-and-10 or more. Despite best intentions, Ball State let opponents off the hook, and it backfired from a fatigue standpoint.

Linemen Joshua Posley, Kevin Thurman, and John Whitman III combined for 20.5 tackles for loss and 10 sacks. They’re all gone. Linebackers Sean Wiggins, Aaron Taylor, Zack Ryan, and Stu Stanley combined for 27 tackles for loss, five sacks, and five passes defensed. They’re gone, too. So are safeties Corey Hall and Martez Hester (4.5 TFLs, eight passes defensed).

Ball State’s defense was a weird mix of super-aggressive against the run and bend-don’t-break against the pass. That combo didn’t always work, but it will be far more difficult to pull it off without the eight starters and one chief backup I listed.

There’s still some play-making talent here, especially in the secondary. BSU cornerbacks gave up a few too many big plays, but the three leading CBs were two sophomores and a junior, and the trio (Marc Walton, Josh Miller, David Moore) also combined for four interceptions and 27 breakups. If you’re going to give up plays, you might as well make some, too.

Meanwhile, in Anthony Winbush, the Cardinals still have one bona fide pass rusher, and in tackles Kevin Willis and John Swisher, they do return a couple of seniors who have been around the block.

Linebacker is a mystery, though. Juniors Jeremiah Jackson and Damon Singleton combined for 26 tackles and 2.5 sacks as backups last year, but the two-deep has otherwise gotten a complete makeover. Higher-upside youngsters like sophomore AJ Jaffal (a former three-star recruit), redshirt freshman Brandon Martin, and maybe one of three three-star true freshmen (Shahid Reece, Brock Burns, Jimmy Daw) will need to prove some of that upside quickly.

Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports

Anthony Winbush

Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images

Marc Walton

Special Teams

If you had to bring one, and only one, guy back from last year’s Ball State special teams unit, you’d choose place-kicker Morgan Hagee, who was virtually automatic on kicks under 40 yards last year and made half of his longer kicks. And hey, good news: Hagee’s basically the only one back. (Part-time kickoffs guy Ryan Rimmler is, too.)

The rest of an otherwise mediocre unit isn’t, and while that might not be awful news, it’s not automatically good.

2017 outlook

2017 Schedule & Projection Factors

Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 2-Sep at Illinois 85 -3.6 42% 9-Sep UAB 130 23.6 91% 16-Sep Tennessee Tech NR 17.1 84% 23-Sep at Western Kentucky 51 -13.7 21% 30-Sep at Western Michigan 74 -7.5 33% 7-Oct at Akron 122 6.0 64% 21-Oct Central Michigan 97 4.2 60% 26-Oct Toledo 59 -7.9 32% 2-Nov at Eastern Michigan 96 -0.9 48% 9-Nov at Northern Illinois 86 -3.2 43% 16-Nov Buffalo 128 15.6 82% 21-Nov Miami (Ohio) 88 2.1 55%

Projected S&P+ Rk 90 Proj. Off. / Def. Rk 66 / 109 Projected wins 6.5 Five-Year S&P+ Rk -5.2 (84) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 96 / 106 2016 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* -10 / -3.5 2016 TO Luck/Game -2.7 Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 63% (65%, 62%) 2016 Second-order wins (difference) 5.6 (-1.6)

Ball State went 1-4 in one-possession finishes in 2016. Some combination of poor turnovers luck (nearly three points per game), a lack of big plays on offense, and a slow degrading of the defense turned the tide late. A 3-2 record in those contests would have meant a bowl bid.

This being the parity-centric MAC, the Cardinals can expect close finishes this fall. They are projected 90th in S&P+, just about the same as last year’s No. 84 ranking, and five Cardinal games have a win probability of between 40 and 60 percent.

Getting UAB, Tennessee Tech, and Buffalo at home should give BSU some baked-in wins and make bowl eligibility likely. Still, the Cardinals’ fortunes could turn on whether last year’s deficient areas change. It’s hard to say they will. The Cardinals should have a strong run game, and the passing game should be about as efficient as it was last year, but unless a freshman emerges, big plays might still be a rarity. The defense will boast some exciting corners, an excellent pass rusher ... and who knows what else.

Neu’s first year was encouraging. Per 247, his first full recruiting class ranked fourth in the MAC, a solid improvement over the Lembo years. Ball State might be destined to be the most MAC MAC team of all, but that probably means some postseason action in the Cardinals’ future. And whatever the Cardinals are in 2017, they should be even further along in 2018.

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