#not 50s accurate but neither is the show

[icecappen]

 Ik he was probably the whitest man to ever live but let me pretend EAsian Vox is real for a sec 

(Btw he’s supposed to be Korean American here but I was too lazy to draw the American flag LMAO)

[arc852]

13. Betwixt

Definition: between

Summary: During one of their weekly movie nights, Joel finds a movie about borrowers called The Secret World of Arrietty. They decide to watch it.

G/t: Grian and Joel are normal-sized, Jimmy is a borrower

Word Count: 3169

AO3 Link

I'm gonna be honest about this one guys, I didn't exactly follow the prompt. It kind of got away from me. It's still a good one though! Another installment in the BBBCAU!

Also, I'm sorry if you haven't seen The Secret World of Arrietty. I highly recommend it if you haven't but hopefully this isn't too confusing without having seen the movie.

And fun fact, I actually rewatched the movie while I was writing this to be more accurate with what they were reacting to. Because I did this, this prompt probably took me the longest to write out of all of them. I did have a lot of fun writing it though!

I hope you enjoy!

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 “Alright! It’s time for a movie night!” Joel exclaimed, grabbing his laptop off his desk and opening it up to set up their movie. The three of them had just finished having dinner and, since it was a friday night and neither human had any classes for the next two days, it was time for their weekly movie night.

 Jimmy loved it. Not only did he enjoy spending time with Grian and Joel but he also looked forward to watching the actual movies themselves. Living in the walls of the dorms, he had only ever managed to get glances at some of the movies the humans would watch. And with no sound, since most humans would watch them with headphones on. But now, he could watch all the movies and Grian and Joel were more than willing to show him the classics.

 Grian stood up from his chair and started on the popcorn and Jimmy waited patiently on the table for somebody to grab him and bring him over to where they would be watching. Usually it would be Joel, who didn’t take long to set the movie up but it seemed he was taking a bit longer this time. So by the time the popcorn was done and dumped in a bowl, Jimmy was still waiting on the table.

 Grian gave him a confused look and then looked over at Joel. “Have you not picked the movie yet?” He asked as he held the popcorn in one hand and used the other to scoop Jimmy up.

 Joel looked up from his laptop briefly to look at the two. “I have, I’m just trying to find it. Bloomin’ streaming services…” He mumbled the last bit under his breath, still clicking and searching through the movies.

 Grian sat down on his bed and let Jimmy off onto the plush surface. Jimmy gained his balance easily enough and now all they were waiting on was Joel. “What movie is it?” Jimmy asked Joel, looking over to Grian briefly to see if he knew, but the other human just shrugged.

 Joel was quiet for another moment before he suddenly exclaimed, “Ah ha! Found it!” Joel finally looked away from his laptop and addressed Jimmy’s question. “Okay, so the other day I was looking to see what movie we could watch and I came across, well, this.” Joel flipped his laptop around in order to show the screen to Grian and Jimmy. On it was the poster for the movie in question.

 “The Secret World of Arrietty?” Grian read off but as he did so, Jimmy’s breath hitched at what he saw. A girl, only a few inches tall, behind a jar with a human looking down at her.

 “Yep. It’s about, get this…borrowers.” Joel revealed and both Grian and Jimmy’s eyes went wide. Jimmy’s with a bit more panic.

 “What?! B-But how is that possible? Do they know? How are we just hearing about this?” Jimmy asked, panicking at the thought of his people being found out. 

 “Whoa, whoa! Jim, calm down.” Joel tried, setting his laptop down and going to sit on the edge of the bed. “I was worried when I first saw it too, so I did some research. Apparently, this movie is based on a book from the 50s. And it’s regarded as completely fictional.”

 “A book…Oh! I knew the term borrowers felt familiar!” Grian exclaimed, referencing something from back when they first met Jimmy. 

 “So…everyone who knows about these movies and books thinks borrowers are fake?” Jimmy asked, calming down a bit.

 Joel nodded. “Yeah. I mean, I can’t speak for the original author. Knowing what we know now, I wouldn’t be surprised if her book was actually based on a true story. But all the material that came after that and all the people who have read her books think it’s nothing more than fiction. So I think you guys are safe.”

 With that, Jimmy let out a breath and relaxed from his tensed up position. “Oh, okay, that’s good.”

 Grian nodded along. “That makes sense. Besides, if borrowers really were found out, I think we would be seeing it all over the news instead of in the form of a movie from…” He checked the date on the screen. “2010.”

 “Right, right, sorry.” Jimmy said, feeling sheepish at his reaction. He looked down, rubbing the back of his head. “I just, ya know, heard the word borrower coming from a human made thing and panicked.”

 “Which is completely understandable.” Joel said. “I felt much the same when I first saw it. I probably should have announced it in a better way though. That one might be on me.” Joel admitted and Grian snorted.

 “Yeah, you definitely could have done that a lot better.” Grian teased and Jimmy couldn’t help but chuckle a bit. Despite the fact he was still trying to calm down from his initial panic. 

 “Yeah, yeah, it’s my fault.” Joel said with a roll of his eyes, though there was a sense of sincerity in his tone. He really did blame himself for making Jimmy panic like that. “Did you guys still want to watch it? I understand if it might be too much for you, Jim.”

 Jimmy thought about it for a moment. On one hand, watching something about his kind made by humans made him nervous. On the other hand, he was curious to see what kind of stuff they got right and wrong and in how much detail they went into about a borrower’s life. So, despite himself, he nodded. “Yeah, I want to see what these humans came up with.”

 “Got to say, I’m a bit curious too.” Grian admitted and Joel nodded and set up the laptop properly at the edge of the bed. 

 Once that was done, Joel turned off the lights and went around the opposite side of the bed to Grian. He picked Jimmy up so as to not worry about where he was when he settled down, and layed down on the bed. Grian did the same next to him so that both humans were on their stomachs facing the laptop.

 Once they were situated, Joel let Jimmy back onto the bed, the borrower now between the two humans with the best spot to see the screen.

 Jimmy would never admit out loud that this was his favorite spot for other reasons as well. He’d get teased into next week if he revealed he liked being this close to the two of them. It just gave him a sense of safety, being between his two friends, a barrier on either side protecting him from anything that might be dangerous to someone like him.

 It was so cheesy and cringy just in Jimmy’s own head, he could never imagine saying it out loud.

 While Grian and Joel were laying down, Jimmy decided to sit criss-cross instead. The popcorn bowl was placed a little bit behind him, so it wasn’t in his way, and then he was handed a piece of popcorn by Grian as Joel pressed play on the movie.

 Jimmy took a small bite of the food, still nervous for what the movie had in store for him.

 It started out simple enough. The animation was beautiful and Jimmy couldn’t help but be a bit jealous of Arriety’s home. His little nook within the walls of the college dorms were nothing in comparison to the grand home Arriety’s family had made for themselves. Maybe he could have had that too if he hadn’t decided to live in a place like this. But it had been the best option for him by far. 

 The term ‘beans’ got brought up, which, of course, Grian and Joel couldn’t just ignore. “Beans?” Joel asked with a raised brow, looking down at Jimmy.

 Jimmy felt his cheeks heat up. “It’s-I mean, it was an old term used by borrowers to refer to humans.” Jimmy crossed his arms and very pointedly did not look at either human. “I haven’t heard it in ages though and I never used it myself.” He added on, trying to make himself look better.

 “Yeah, but how did you even come up with beans anyway?” Joel asked, still trying to figure it out.

 Jimmy bit his lip. “Well…” He was cut off.

 “Wait. Human beings. Human be-ings. Human…beans.” Grian slowly figured out and then grinned. “Oh my gosh.”

 “Aww, that’s actually kind of adorable.” Joel teased, grinning as well.

 Jimmy felt his face heat up even more and he covered his hands with his face. “Can we please just get back to the movie?”

 The two laughed but they did turn back towards the screen.

 There was some mention about children shortly after. About how dangerous they were, even more so than the adults. Jimmy himself shivered and found himself nodding in agreement despite himself. Grian and Joel noticed but didn’t say anything. 

 A few seconds later, something else was revealed. 

 “I’m sorry, did they say 14?” Joel asked incredulously.

 Jimmy nodded. “Yeah, that’s usually around the time borrowers start to fend for themselves. Although I think it’s gotten earlier and earlier.” Jimmy thought back. “I went off on my own at 12, but that was mostly…because…” Jimmy trailed off as he caught Grian and Joel’s eyes. There was that indescribable emotion again. Jimmy didn’t know what it was, but he didn’t like it. “Nevermind.”

 “Jim-” Joel started but stopped when he saw Grian subtly shake his head. He mouthed ‘not now’ and Joel huffed but didn’t say anything more.

 Back to the movie, Jimmy was suddenly and inexplicably hit with an existential crisis. He tried not to think about other borrowers. But it had been a long time since he had seen any himself. Sometimes, he also wondered how many of his kind were even still out there.

 Grian and Joel pointedly did not say anything.

 The borrowing scene played out, which Jimmy supposed was fairly accurate. Although he couldn’t help but wonder why they would be borrowing when there were still human’s awake in the house. One of the humans could have suddenly opened the drawer they were in. Or walked into the kitchen. It didn’t make sense.

 Meanwhile, Grian and Joel were in a bit of awe. The movie did a great job giving a borrower’s perspective on things. And a little too well. Joel felt a bit dizzy at the height and he didn’t even mind them usually. It was also just incredible, to see how intuitive borrowers could be. Grian made a mental note to ask Jimmy how accurate it really was later on.

 They got to the dollhouse and Jimmy couldn’t help but feel a bit uneasy. Especially when Arrietty’s dad pointed out how they weren’t toys. He couldn’t help but feel, just a little, that the dollhouse had been some sort of…trap or something, for the borrowers.

 He shook his head and continued watching. Arrietty and her dad had left the dollhouse and were now grabbing the tissue paper they needed. And then-

 The human saw them.

 Jimmy couldn’t help but jump and gasp, almost the same as Arrietty did. He couldn’t help it. Those eyes felt like they were pointed right at him. 

 He briefly heard Joel mutter an “oh no” before turning his attention back to see what would happen.

 The boy spoke, and Jimmy couldn’t help but compare his words to when he first met Grian and Joel. It was similar, at least in the beginning. Don’t be scared. We’re not going to hurt you.

 He wasn’t sure how to feel about it.

 When Arrietty left, he let out a sigh of relief. “He didn’t grab her.” Jimmy said to himself, both as a fact and in wonder. Any other human, knowing a borrower was there, would have at least attempted to catch them. At least, that’s what Jimmy believed anyway.

Unbeknownst to him though, Grian and Joel had heard his remark. They sent each other a look, also reminded of their first meeting with Jimmy. Joel was starting to regret putting this movie on.

 “That’s weird.” Jimmy said a few moments later, this time loud enough he was sure Grian and Joel could hear. One of them hummed in response, he couldn’t tell which one. “It’s weird the dad would just brush off what just happened. They should be packing up their things and moving after being seen like that.”

 You didn’t. Grian almost said the words out loud but he stopped himself. He didn’t want to bring it up now. “Oh.” He said instead, a simple response to let Jimmy know he had heard him.

 The movie went on and eventually got to the scene at the window. Jimmy was tense the entire time, a fall from that height would be fatal or a smack from the bird could have done a lot of damage as well. And then, Arrietty was grabbed and everything in the movie slowed down and became quiet.

 Well, grabbed was putting it too strongly. The human more had her cupped in his hand, not restricting her at all really. Which came into play a moment later, when Arrietty was simply able to get away.

 Again, Jimmy thought it was weird. It felt like the movie was downplaying the fear borrowers had towards humans.

 Joel flexed his hand subconsciously, looking down at it and then over at Jimmy. He was always aware of how small Jimmy was in his grasp. But seeing it in a movie…it felt weird.

 “There it is.” Jimmy said as Pod finally revealed they needed to leave. “Took them long enough.”

 They got to the other dollhouse scene, where the humans were discussing it. So not…really a trap then. The humans had good intentions it seemed like. And honestly, the house looked really nice, especially with all the working appliances in it. But it still felt wrong.

 A bit later into the movie, Jimmy felt horrified when the human tried to help by ripping out their old kitchen for the new one. Again, the human had good intentions but…

 Grian and Joel seemed to think the same. 

 “That’s bloomin’ terrifying.” Joel said, and when Jimmy looked over he could tell Joel’s shoulders were tense.

 “How did he think that would be a good idea? Honestly?” Grian said, exasperated and honestly annoyed at the character.

 Jimmy couldn’t help but chuckle a little. It was kind of funny having two humans reacting like that.

 They continued watching and got to the part where Shawn saw Arrietty for the first time. The mood was down and Joel decided to try and lift it. “I can tell you right now Jim, neither of us thought you were beautiful when we first saw you.”

 The sudden quip made Jimmy laugh out loud and Joel smiled in victory. “Hey! I take offense to that, you know. I’m very beautiful.”

 Grian snickered, glad for the short break. “Sure, you keep telling yourself that.” Grian said and then reached over and ruffled Jimmy’s hair.

 “Hey! Stop that!” Jimmy said, but was laughing at the same time, trying to push Grian’s finger away. 

 The scene changed in the movie, bringing their attention back to the screen as Hara discovered the borrower’s home. The mood dampened again. The look on Hara’s face when she saw Homily. It sent more than a shiver down Jimmy’s spine.

 “Okay…I take back what I said before. That is terrifying.” Joel said, wondering if that’s anyway how him and Grian looked…before. He looked over at Grian, who’s eyes remained on the screen, his brow pinched.

 Jimmy could only nod at Joel’s statement.

 Homily was grabbed and Grian’s hand clenched in turn. Jimmy, thankfully, didn’t notice. Too caught up by what was happening on screen.

 The look of fear on the borrower’s face made Grian feel…guilty. Was that how Jimmy felt, way back then? Did he still feel that way? Grian and Joel had made it a habit to just…pick Jimmy up whenever they pleased. Jimmy never said anything about it before. But…was he just too scared to?

 Grian rubbed his head, closing his eyes for a moment. He silently cursed Joel for finding this movie in the first place. It was making him question too many things.

 When Homily was put in a jar, Jimmy could only be thankful that that had never happened to him.

 When Arrietty went to Shawn for help, Joel couldn’t keep in his questions any longer. “What’s it like being held?”

 Jimmy, startled by the question, looked up at Joel with wide eyes. “To be…held?”

 “You know…” Joel suddenly felt a bit self-conscious for asking and was blatantly ignoring Grian’s look. “In a hand. In one of…our…hands.”

 “Oh.” Jimmy couldn’t help but look down at Joel’s hands at the question causing Joel to self-consciously tuck his hands closer to himself. The movie must be getting to them more than Jimmy originally thought.

 He couldn’t really blame them though. It was getting to him too, just a little bit.

 He thought about it for a moment, trying his best to come up with the right thing to say. How to explain it…?

 “You don’t have to answer if you don’t want to.” Grian chimed in, glaring at Joel from above Jimmy. “You can just ignore--”

 “It feels safe.”

 Grian shut up.

 Jimmy continued, looking down at his own hands. “I guess it didn’t always feel like that. It was constricting before, overwhelming, I felt…well, I felt helpless. I can feel the strength in your hands, I know how much damage they can do.”

 “Jimmy…” Joel started but Jimmy didn’t stop.

 “It’s still overwhelming, not gonna lie. I don’t think that will ever go away. But it’s different now. The…I guess, the uncertainty is gone. I know you two mean well, I know you two would never hurt me. And I feel…protected. So…yeah. It feels safe. I-I guess.” Jimmy added on the last bit, suddenly feeling flustered by what he had just said. 

 Jimmy braced himself for the teasing but was surprised when it didn’t come.

 “O-Oh.” Joel said, his voice a bit watery. “That’s uh…I-I’m glad.”

 Grian didn’t say anything but he was happy to know his earlier thoughts held no substance. Jimmy was fine being picked up and wasn’t afraid of them and Grian blames this movie entirely for making him second guess that.

 Actually, scratch that, he blames Joel.

 They watched the rest of the movie play out. Arrietty and Shawn saved her mom, Hara was seen to look like a crazy person, and Arrietty said one last goodbye to Shawn before leaving.

 The three friends were silent as the credits rolled.

 “Well that was…a lot.” Jimmy broke the silence.

 “You can say that again.” Joel said, letting out a little sigh.

 It was silent for another moment.

 “All in favor of banning Joel from picking any more movies?” Grian asked, raising his hand.

 “Me.” Jimmy said, also raising his hand.

 “Wha-? Hey!”

[paganimagevault]

Sassanid silver plate 7th C. CE. Decorated with a figure seated on a couch in a crescent moon and a figure standing in an archway. Found in Klimova, Russia in 1907. The base of the vessel appears to have runic script scratched into it. This item is sometimes referred to as The ‘Clock of Khosrow’ or The ‘Throne of Khosrow’ Plate. Diameter: 21.6cm.

I'm just going to do a brief summary of what caused Persia to fall to Islam.

The Islamic invasion of Persia began sometime between 628-632 CE. From 541 CE to this time Persia had been exhausted by an almost constant state of war. Most of the fighting was with the Byzantine Empire in the west: The Lazic War (541-562), Byzantine–Sasanian War of 572–591, Byzantine–Sasanian War of 602–628.

However, there were also wars with the Turks to the north and the east: Perso-Turkic war of 588–589, Perso-Turkic war of 606–608, Perso-Turkic war of 627–629. In this final war the Byzantines and Turks were allies. This alliance took time to come into being but had been sought out by the Turks almost immediately after they destroyed the Hephthalites, indicating they planned to do to the Persians what they had done to the Huns. The medieval historian Movses Kaghankatvatsi described the war of 627-629:

"At the arrival of the all-powerful scourge (universal wrath) confronting us, the invaders [Turks], like billowing waves of the sea, crashed against the walls and demolished them to their foundations. [In Partaw], seeing the terrible danger from the multitude of hideously ugly, vile, broad-faced, without eyelashes, and with long flowing hair like women, which descended upon them, a great terror (trembling) seized the inhabitants. They were even more horrified when they saw the accurate and strong [Khazar] archers, whose arrows rained down upon them like heavy hailstones, and how they [Khazars], like ravenous wolves that had lost all shame, fell upon them and mercilessly slaughtered them on the streets and squares of the city. Their eyes had no mercy for neither the beautiful, nor handsome, nor the young men or women; they did not spare even the unfit, harmless, lame, nor old; they had no pity (compassion, regrets), and their hearts did not shrink at the sight of the babies embracing their murdered mothers; to the contrary, they suckled blood from their breasts like milk."

Ironically, the Sassanid ruler Khosrow I had married a Turkic princess to win an alliance with them so the two could destroy the Huns together in 560 CE at the Battle of Gol-Zarriun. Khosrow I chose his Turkic progeny, Hormizd IV, as ruler over his Persian children. From Iranica Online:

"Hormozd’s character displeased everyone. He antagonized the Zoroastrian clergy, allegedly killing many of them, even the chief mowbed, and alienated the nobility by killing thousands of them (Ṭabari, I, p. 991; tr., V, pp. 297-98; Balʿami, ed. Bahār, pp. 1072-73; Masʿudi, Moruj, ed. Pellat, sec. 632; Šāh-nāma, Moscow, VIII, pp. 319 ff.). In diplomacy he showed inflexibility, even poor judgement. He disrupted the peace negotiations with the Byzantines and made demands (payment of “tribute”) that the Romans could not accept (Menander, frag., 23.9-24-12529). His contemporary, Menander Protector, lamented that “the Romans and the Persians would have made peace, had not Ḵosrow left this life and his son, Hormisdas [Hormizd IV], a truly wicked man, assumed the crown” (tr., pp. 207-9)."

Finally the Sassanid Empire went into a civil war from 628-632 CE where it had become politically decentralized. The Plague of Sheroe also occurred in 627-628 CE, most heavily devastating the populations in the western provinces with some areas experiencing a 50% mortality rate. Afterward, the Arab Muslims flooded into an already ravaged Persia like bacteria infesting an open wound.

[plazmafields]

V's a living legend at the Afterlife, he's got a stylish new mansion, and his head is one consciousness lighter. And he's not handling it well. V knew Johnny had to go or they'd both die, but he wasn't prepared for how empty he'd feel. Emotionally and...physically? Psychologically? The turn around between Jackie dying and Johnny getting wiped was too quick, V hadn't had time to process all of it. Any of it, really. He could say he feels numb, but that's not right. He feels too many emotions all at once, but he can't express anything. "System overload" would be more accurate.

When a room is quiet for too long, V can almost hear Johnny's voice in the back of his head, an indecipherable murmur. When he's alone and hears a voice, he assumes it's Johnny's. He replies accordingly, often to the room's confusion. Sometimes he responds in his head, forgetting he has to move his lips and vocal cords for others to hear what he's thinking.

It's been a long and difficult adjustment, but Kerry understands. He remembers hearing Johnny's snide, critical remarks echo with every strum of a cord. He remembers staring at his guitar from across the room, listening to a repeating memory of Johnny's fingers on the strings. Distinct. Inimitable.

That doesn't mean it hurts any less when V calls him "Johnny" by mistake. After 50 years of trying to escape that Silver shadow that loomed over his life and career, and finally succeeding, it feels like a major step back. Kerry's been patient--something V has profusely thanked him for--but he's snapped more than once.

Kerry wonders if this is how V felt when they first met. He had such a hard time separating the two in his mind at first, despite being able to tell them apart easily. V's a rebel, an anarchist, an edgerunner to the bone, but not in the same way Johnny always was. V had expressed, when they started dating, that he didn't want to play second fiddle to Johnny. If there had been--or still was--anything between Johnny and him, Kerry ought to come clean. V tended to be a little sensitive to comparisons at the time, but since Johnny's removal, he hasn't shown any signs of insecurity.

Insecurity is now Kerry's burden to bare. He knows in the forefront of his mind that each time V uses the wrong name, it's simply an accident. The last person around him day in and day out was Johnny, so it follows that after moving in together, V occasionally uses the name of his previous "housemate." But Kerry's feelings of inferiority hiss and screech on instinct, like a bat brought to the light, each time he hears the late rocker's name. He's never held his tongue before, but he holds it for V. The marc apologizes ad nauseum each time it happens, and Kerry tells him it's alright.

And it is, he thinks. They've each gotten better; Kerry's reactions are less visceral now, and V is getting used to it being Kerry in his peripherals. Neither will ever be completely without Johnny, much to their dismay, but he's less a part of their daily lives now.

Life, as it were. They've adjusted well to living together. Both men are busy frequently; V's thievery is better done under the cover of night, and Kerry's shows run late due to multiple encores. But when they converge at home in the wee hours of the morning, the world stands still for them, giving them a precious moment to bask in what little time they may have left together.

V's still looking for a permanent cure. Kerry worries his lover won't outlive him. What an odd thing to hope for, he realizes, to die long before V. Before he finds his first grey hair; before he begins feeling the weather in his joints; before he starts groaning whenever he stands from the couch.

V's eyes catch on Kerry's from across the living room. He hadn't realized he'd been staring.

"Wha'cha thinkin' about?" V asks, inquisitive hazel eyes adjusting like a camera shutter around void-black pupils.

Kerry smiles as he replies without hesitation, "Thinkin' about how much I love you."

They haven't said it a lot, only when things get really bad. When V wakes up searching for Johnny, when he has nightmares of Jackie bleeding out and not being able to stop it. When Kerry gets another email from his custody lawyer, when he battles with his label to renegotiate ownership of his masters.

V rises from his seat and joins Kerry on the couch, kissing his forehead as he sits. "Everything okay?" He rubs his hand firmly up and down Kerry's thigh.

"Sure," Kerry lays his arm across the back of the couch, coaxing V to lean into him. "Just feel like I don't remind you enough, that's all."

V grins as he scoots closer. "Well feel free to remind me as much as you want." He grabs Kerry's free hand in his, interlocking their fingers and squeezing tightly, whispering as he leans in for a kiss, "I love you too, Ker."

[zeldahime]

Zelda Liveblogs a Lancet Paper

Following this post, I am now going to liveblog reading the Lancet paper cited by the Economist article to predict worldwide fertility to drop by 3/4s of its current position if current demographic trends continue. It is an Open Access article, so the entire thing is open for anyone on the internet to read.

Citation:

GBD 2021 Fertility and Forecasting Collaborators (March 20, 2024). Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. The Lancet, 403(10440), 2057-2099. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(24)00550-6.

I refuse to use Chicago style. This is mostly because I memorized APA and don't want to learn a new one.

First, my background: I am not a demographer; I am not trained as a demographer; I have studied it auxiliarily to my other academic pursuits. I fall in a sort of educated in-between. I am currently a Master's student in library and information sciences, and my undergraduate degree was in political science, both at USAmerican universities. However, the field of economics is also very close to my heart, and I would have double-majored in it if the opportunity and financial costs had not been too high to justify it. During the five years I was a college drop-out, I studied economics independently, reading broadly within the field and taking non-certificate courses online. I've been taking non-certificate courses in economics through correspondence or online since I was about nine. I'm not an expert! I do, however, think I'm a fairly well-informed amateur.

And a note on language. This paper refers to birthing parents as mothers and to the demographic that gives birth interchangeably as female and women. I acknowledge that this is a cissexist patriarchical viewpoint that erases transmen, nonbinary and intersex people, and probably others I'm not thinking of. For consistency between my reflections and the paper and ease of reading, I will do the same. I'm conscious I'm part of the problem here, but don't see a way around it without making my bits harder to understand than they have to be.

With that out of the way, here we go:

Methodology (Summary)

This is where me not being a demographer is an important thing to know. I neither know nor normally care about the statistical methods used to determine demography, just that the demographers aren't retracting papers over it. However, I do know that in general the CCF50 (total cohort fertility before the age of 50) is a neater and more accurate measurement to build projections on than the TFR (total fertility rate by year) and that's the methodology the paper's authors went with. This is good and promising. TFR for known years and CCF50 projections sounds like a solid method. 👍

We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined.

I'm very hopeful about these forecasts! They'll show a few different hopeful scenarios.

To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values—a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy—by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007–21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline.

This is a very responsible thing for the authors to have done, and I am interested to see how this is reflected in the models.

.

Findings (Summary)

During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63–5·06) to 2·23 (2·09–2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137–147), declining to 129 million (121–138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950,

(Emphasis mine. The numbers in parentheses are the confidence interval.) I think this is the most important takeaway from the whole damn paper. Makes sense, since it's the first line of the findings. If you read nothing else, read these three sentences. Global birthrates are barely above replacement (which, if you recall from my other essay, is generally considered to be ~2.1). To me, this implies lot of problems that traditionally have been considered solvable with population redistribution (meaning, mostly, immigration) may not be solvable that way even if fertility were to stop declining today and hold constant for the rest of the century.

Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59–2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25–1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa.

Holy shit. I cannot emphasize enough how low a TFR of 1.59 is. This is approximately the current TFR of the United Kingdom, and they're beginning to freak out even though they have relatively easy sources of additional replacement recruitment through the Commonwealth. Imagine that for the whole Earth. With only six countries as a potential source of surplus population to be redistributed.

Funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Makes sense. This is the kind of thing that foundation funds.

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Introduction

Low levels of fertility have the potential over time to result in inverted population pyramids with growing numbers of older people and declining working-age populations. These changes are likely to place increasing burdens on health care and social systems, transform labour and consumer markets, and alter patterns of resource use.

Oh man, I wish I'd gone through this paper earlier, I could have just quoted this bit and been done instead of trying to explain it from scratch! 😂

The UN Population Division estimates of past fertility are not compliant with the Guidelines on Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER) statement in important respects; notably, they do not provide all code for statistical models or explicit details on criteria for exclusion or adjustment of primary data sources. Furthermore, the validity of UN Population Division projections has been questioned due to the assumptions applied in countries experiencing low post-transition fertility dropping below replacement level.

YES GO OFF 👏 The UN Population Division is so much more cagey about their data than the World Bank, it's so annoying, and they keep predicting increases that don't happen. I thought it was so weird as an undergrad but figured it was because of ~bureaucracy~ or privacy laws or whatever. It's nice to be vindicated [redacted] years later.

Our forecasts also suggest that, by 2100, the largest concentrations of livebirths will shift to low-income settings, particularly a subset of countries and territories in sub-Saharan Africa, which are among the most vulnerable to economic and environmental challenges. Extreme shifts in the global distribution of livebirths can be partially ameliorated by improved female education and met need for modern contraception. Outside of this subset of low-income areas, most of the world's countries will experience the repercussions of low fertility, with ageing populations, declining workforces, and inverted population pyramids, which are likely to lead to profound fiscal, economic, and social consequences. National policy makers and the global health community must plan to address these divided sets of demographic challenges emerging worldwide.

This is such an important point for them to make. Demography isn't a vacuum; it has significant real-world effects. By 2100, most babies born will be born in Africa, and we need to plan for that now. By 2100, most countries will not have enough workers, and we need to plan for that now. 2100 is not that far into the future. I, personally, will live to see the beginnings of the effects of this demographic shift, and I'm an adult who pays taxes and has a college degree and shit.

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The Data Sources and Processing section is pretty standard and unremarkable. Good job.

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Fertility Forecasting

We produced forecasts of fertility using an updated modelling framework (appendix 1 section 3) that improved on the methods in the 2020 study by Vollset and colleagues. In our updated methods, we used not only estimates of female educational attainment and contraceptive met need as covariates, but also estimates of under-5 mortality and population density in habitable areas to account for a larger variation in CCF50 across all countries in the sub-models (appendix 1 section 3.1, appendix 2 figure S2). Similar to Vollset and colleagues, we continued to forecast fertility with CCF50 rather than TFR, because modelling in cohort space is more stable than in period space.

Niiiiice. Covariates are things that, well, vary, alongside the thing you're trying to measure. For fertility, the most obvious one might be age of the mother at first birth; if someone is 16 at first birth, she probably will have more kids than someone who is 30 at first birth, for example. This model also includes how much schooling the mother gets, whether she has contraception, the mortality rate (that is, how many of them die) of children under five, and population density! That's a lot of statistical crunching and their model will be more precise for it. Precise isn't the same as accurate, but I think that with the variables they selected, they will travel in the same direction.

What a pretty equation. I don't understand it, but it's got a certain je ne sais quois.

For the education SDG scenario, the forecasts assume that by 2030, all people will have 12 years or more of education by the age of 25 years and then maintains the same rate of change as the reference scenario up to 2100. For the contraceptive met need scenario, to reflect the SDG scenario of universal access, the forecasts assumed a linear increase in contraceptive coverage to reach 100% by 2030 and then stay constant up to 2100.

I love how optimistic these scenarios are ��� This truly is the best-case scenario for both the education forecast and the contraceptive forecast! I do hope everybody has 12+ years of education and 100% contraceptive coverage by 2030. Make it happen, António!!!!

(Joke explained: António Guterres is the current Secretary-General of the United Nations, and these goals are absolutely not going to be met by 2030.)

In the pro-natal scenario, we assumed a country will introduce pro-natal policies, such as childcare subsidies, extended parental leave, insurance coverage expansion for infertility treatment, 33 and other forms of support for parents to afford high-quality child-care services, once TFR decreases to less than 1·75. We then made three assumptions on the effects of such policies. First, we assumed the full effect of pro-natal policies will be to increase TFR by 0·2. Second, it will take 5 years after the policy is introduced for the full increase in TFR to occur, and TFR will rise linearly over that time span. Last, we assumed that both the policies and the increase in TFR by 0·2 will endure for the remainder of the century.

The pro-natal scenario is also incredibly optimistic. This kind of response simply hasn't happened in any country that's tried pro-natal policies as envisioned by the authors (my reference cases, just off the top of my head: Japan and France).

The optimism makes sense. They represent extreme cases, in order to contrast possible outcomes versus the reference case. This is good practice! It's just also funny.

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Results

The Reference Case

I hate the embedded tables. They have the confidence interval in the same cell as the estimate. How very dare they, that's incredibly inconvenient for me personally.

The chart in Figure 1, however, I think speaks volumes:

It speaks so many volumes that I'm gonna go up and put it above the cut, brb. This chart shows the reference case; that is, it shows the fertility rate if the fertility trends of 1950-2021 continue into the future.

At the national level, estimates of TFR in 2021 ranged from 0·82 (95% UI 0·75–0·89) in South Korea to 6·99 (6·75–7·24) in Chad, with below-replacement levels of fertility (TFR <2·1) in 110 of 204 countries and territories (table 1, figures 2A, 3).

I think this range is neat and goes to show that while the trend is world-wide, it's still not even. Chadian women still give birth to about 7ish kids on average. That's more than 3x replacement, and more than 8.5x the average fertility of South Korea. South Korea is going to have different problems than Chad; Chad probably doesn't have to worry as much about their workforce being unable to sustain a large elderly population. (Don't look so cheerful about it. They've got lots of other stuff to worry about. 😬)

These charts are fascinating to look at to me. I think this really showcases just how dramatic the projected decline is. It's not just the Europe, it's not just wealthy post-industrialized countries, but everywhere. It's in Eswanti, it's in Indonesia, it's in Burkina Faso, it's in China. It really shows just how much Chad is an outlier (adn should still be counted, btw, just because it's an outlier doesn't mean we should discard it; it's dependent on study structure and you can't just throw out entire countries because they have high birth rates on a study of birth rates).

Our estimates indicate that there is approximately a 30-year gap between the time when TFR falls below 2·1 and when the natural rate of population increase turns negative. We forecast that 155 (76·0%) countries and territories will have fertility rates below replacement level in 2050; by 2100, we project this number will increase to 198 (97·1%), with 178 (87·3%) having a negative natural rate of increase (figure 3).

A 30-year gap sounds reasonable. That's about how long it takes for people to have/not have kids, and for their own parents to potentially die, in about equalish numbers (on a global scale, anyway). I do think this gap number is likely to increase as healthcare improves in places that are worse today and as fertility technology increases the age at which people can become pregnant, but 30 is a perfectly respectable number with actual statistical backing.

Alternative scenario fertility forecasts

This is the part I'm really excited about!!!

The first scenario, which assumes meeting the SDG education target by 2030, is estimated to result in global TFRs of 1·65 (95% UI 1·40–1·92) in 2050 and 1·56 (1·26–1·92) in 2100 (table 2). The second scenario, which assumes meeting the SDG contraceptive met need target by 2030, will produce global TFRs of 1·64 (1·39–1·89) in 2050 and 1·52 (1·21–1·87) in 2100. The third scenario, which incorporates pro-natal policy implementation, is forecast to yield global TFRs of 1·93 (1·69–2·19) in 2050 and 1·68 (1·36–2·04) in 2100. The combined scenario, in which all three other alternative scenarios are applied, is projected to result in a global TFR of 1·65 (1·40–1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35–1·95) in 2100.

So recall the reference scenario projections: 1·83 (1·59–2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25–1·96) in 2100.

I find it interesting that all cases are so incredibly close to reference, with overlapping confidence intervals. Functionally, there's not a lot of difference between a TFR of 1.68 and 1.52. They're both still well below replacement. It's about the difference between Sweden (1.67) and Russia (1.51). Russia, you may have noticed, is waging war about it.*

*This is not a stated goal of the Russian Federation in the Ukraine War. This is me personally making an assertion that the shifting demographics of the Russian population, including the below-replacement birthrate beginning to put pressure on their lacking social safety networks, has contributed to the many complicated and interconnected reasons why the Russian Federation invaded Ukraine, but please do not take me to be the final authority on the matter or interpret this statement as implying that demography of all things is the sole or primary reason for the war.

Discussion

The aforementioned changes in fertility over the coming century will have profound effects on populations, economies, geopolitics, food security, health, and the environment, with a clear demographic divide between the impacts on many middle-to-high-income locations versus many low-income locations. For nearly all countries and territories outside of sub-Saharan Africa, sustained low fertility will produce a contracting population with fewer young people relative to older people before the end of the 21st century. These changes in age structure are likely to present considerable economic challenges caused by a growing dependency ratio of older to working-age population and a shrinking labour force. 42 Unless governments identify unforeseen innovations or funding sources that address the challenges of population ageing, this demographic shift will put increasing pressure on national health insurance, social security programmes, and health-care infrastructure. These same programmes will receive less funding as working-age, tax-paying populations decline, further exacerbating the problem.

This is why the Economist article talks about birthrates the way it does. It's not about white babies or whatever people in the notes are sarcastically ascribing to an article they haven't read. It's about the whole world. There are 150 countries outside of the Sub-Saharan Africa region, and 44 of the 46 countries within Sub-Saharan Africa are projected to feel the many or all of the same effects as well.

It's about the way social security nets are structured and how they're going to fail. It's about the way that elderly people are going to be treated by our societies. It's about me, and it's about you, and it's about making sure that there are enough humans to take care of the other humans that need taking care of.

If we don't increase global fertility rates above replacement, which it increasingly looks like we won't, we need other solutions. The fertility one is easy fuckin' pickings compared to a complete overhaul of society, and you saw how little difference it actually makes. So did the authors:

To date, one strategy to reverse declining fertility in low-fertility settings has been to implement pro-natal policies, such as child-related cash transfers and tax incentives, childcare subsidies, extended parental leave, re-employment rights, and other forms of support for parents to care and pay for their children.49, 50 Yet there are few data to show that such policies have led to strong, sustained rebounds in fertility, with empirical evidence suggesting an effect size of no more than 0·2 additional livebirths per female. [...] Moreover, although pro-natal policies primarily aim to increase births, they also offer additional benefits to society, including better quality of life, greater household gender equality (ie, more equal division of household labour),53 higher rates of female labour force participation,54 lower child-care costs,55 and better maternal health outcomes,56 depending on policy design and contextual factors. In the future, it will be beneficial to perform an in-depth analysis on varying impacts of pro-natal policies in selected countries that have a meaningful impact on population. [...] Importantly, low fertility rates and the modest effects that pro-natal policies might have on them should not be used to justify more draconian measures that limit reproductive rights, such as restricting access to modern contraceptives or abortions.

I just want to highlight that the study authors explicitly argue for certain pro-natal policies that increase quality of life and caution against pro-natal policies that limit rights. These people aren't heartless.

They also discuss at some length the implications of the changing distribution of live births, where by the end of the century most live births will take place in the poorest nations, which are also the ones that will be hardest-hit by climate change. These nations already face famines, military rule, civil wars, terrorism, and climate changed-caused severe heatwaves, droughts, and floods. They advise politicians to take this into account when making policy decisions but don't go into what policy decisions should be made, which is wise since they're demographers and not political scientists, but disappointed me, the political scientist reading the demography paper and hoping to find something to criticize.

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My takeaway:

Incredibly interesting paper. As a non-demographer, I think it's very convincing and hope that it sparks a serious conversation about the paths we need to take forward, in our own countries and as a global community. I especially hope that it inspires us to take bold action to drastically change our systems of elder care, which are already being pushed to the limit and will simply break under pressure if fertility rates continue to fall.

[marciabrady]

What is Cinderella's hair color?

This is totally up to interpretation! Ilene Woods was pretty much the basis of everything when they were creating Cinderella, from her temperament to her facial structure to her coloring to her sayings to her eye placement when she smiled, and even Ilene's hair color is hard to read. She was definitely objectively blonde- she was referred to as such on radio shows and even in the press announcement that was released when she was cast as Cinderella. But in a lot of photographs, her hair appears brunette on camera- and there's a few reasons for this. First and foremost, the relatively primitive nature of cameras from that time period really couldn't capture nuances in natural tones- so unless your hair was platinum white or bleached, it would probably read brunette, and everything else would register as darker, inevitably. Plus, we're used to seeing people with bleached/colored hair these days, so what is truly considered a natural blonde- albeit dirty or a darker or just a more "natural" toned blonde- many contemporary people refer to, on a superficial lens- as brunette. So, I think Ilene was a dirty blonde, even though I've seen pictures of her later in life where she looks like a neutral blonde that is neither very light or very dark.

When it comes to Cinderella's intended/official hair color, that's also a can of worms. So, people are quick to discredit the platinum blonde Cinderella has appeared with in the 80s/90s/2000s/2010s merch and say she's a 'strawberry' blonde. They claim this is because of how she looks in the 'original' movie, but they're using the 2013 blu ray/2005 dvd master to go off of, which is even influencing current artwork of Cinderella in the Disney Princess franchise, and that master- beyond scrubbing all the linework out of the film (see screenshot below- look at how even the 1988 VHS maintains the lines in the bedding better than the 2005 and 2013 rubbery effect) also had inaccurate representations of the color relationships between elements in the film, which- again- means that you're not going to see what was intended.

The team that worked on remastering the current 4K edition of Cinderella that came out this year (which I love btw! I'm still not super pleased with certain changes BUT it's a MASSIVE, MASSIVE improvement over the 2005/2012 master that had been done in 2003 and is far more pleasing to look at and, generally, my favorite restoration Disney has officially done) said that they referenced the original cel artwork, as well as promotional materials like lobby cards to better understand what the artistic intent was...and that's tricky. Because, while they interpreted it better than remasters of the 2000s/2010s which sought to LITERALLY make the film look exactly like the raw cel art, these movies were not meant to be viewed as, I do think they still stuck too close to the cel colors. Due to the nature of technicolor, a lot of color tests had to be done so that the artists could see what the finished product would look like after it had gone through the process of being printed on film- because it was always apt to differ greatly from the artwork on cel. A good example of this is the fact that blonde hair didn't read so the artists had to color it with a green tint on the original cels (see first screenshot below) so that it'd appear blonde on camera. However, again, I think the team looked too deeply into this and now we've ended up with a master, a gorgeous one, but a faulty one that depicts Cinderella's hair as almost green in 2023 (see right screencap from 4K remaster)

When it comes to lobby cards, they're not going to be accurate either. I've seen lobby cards that were released in 1959 that depict Aurora as a brunette, blonde, and redhead, and they even change the color of her peasant dress to green, blue, pink- anything you can think of. And Cinderella's hair differs greatly in the lobby cards from the 50s themselves

The funny thing is, it really seems to be decade dependent. I actually have access to a 1973 print and I think that's what the basis for the 2005/2013 master was, because the colors are very similar to that strawberry blonde and even the hues of the hallway in the chateau look nearly identical to the 2005/2013, and we never seen those colors again outside of those two masters. It's so odd it premiered in the 70s, that specific master, because in that decade, and in the 60s, they marketed Cinderella more as a brunette and gave Aurora the blonde title (which was reversed in the 2000s, where they almost made Aurora a light brunette and made Cinderella platinum beyond belief):

You can even see Disney's confusion at what her hair is supposed to be; in the sequel, they gave Cinderella the platinum hair of the marketing at the time, but in the third movie, they tried to be more 'faithful' and cinematic and went off of the current, faulty, master of the time...which resulted in an unappealing turnout, imo? Like her skin and hair shouldn't be that close, color relationship wise, on film? (again, merch is always a different color)

Also in House of Mouse, which is generally accurate with a lot, they make Pete put a red wig on when he's in Cinderella garb, indicating they thought that was the color of her hair at that point:

Also, I feel like she's not supposed to be a true redhead or lean as close to strawberry blonde or people say she is? Again, cels shouldn't be viewed strictly for the color themselves, but if we observe the color relationship between her hair and that of Anastasia's- who is a true redhead- there's a huge difference:

There are also a few production notes that we do have that can help a little. We know Cinderella's Prince was made to have much darker hair to contrast hers, so they could be visually striking with one another, again leading us to the conclusion that she does have light hair (which kinda dodges the 60s/70s artwork where she's a dusty brunette). We also know that Disney tried to make the Prince in Snow White sandyhaired, but it came across on camera as dark brown and didn't provide that much of a contrast to Snow White, which they were able to capture more successfully in books of that era, all through even the 80s/90s. I, personally, really love this book especially and I find the colors of everything- the interiors, Cinderella, her dress, etc- ring true to me, personally:

And this color can be seen anywhere as brunette to some, to sandy, to blonde, to dirty blonde, to slightly red- and that's how I think Cinderella's hair is. I think she's a warm level 7, if we're going by a professional hair chart, and it's like a russet blonde color? Hints of red that could make someone see her as a redhead, or just a blonde, or to some who view blondes as solely being platinum, she'd almost even appear as a brunette. That being said, Aurora is definitely a blonde and in the current master we have, her skin appears pink/red and her hair looks greenish, so if anyone who's working on the future 4K master of Sleeping Beauty could fix that, it would be greatly appreciated!!

[byneddiedingo]

Two Takes on a Hardy Novel

Julie Christie and Alan Bates in Far From the Madding Crowd (John Schlesinger, 1967)

Cast: Julie Christie, Alan Bates, Terence Stamp, Peter Finch. Screenplay: Frederic Raphael. Cinematography: Nicolas Roeg. Production design: Richard Macdonald. Film editing: Malcolm Cooke, Jim Clark. Music: Richard Rodney Bennett.

Matthias Schoenaerts and Carey Mulligan in Far From the Madding Crowd (Thomas Vinterberg, 2015)

Cast: Carey Mulligan, Matthias Schoenaerts, Tom Sturridge, Michael Sheen. Screenplay: David Nicholls. Cinematography: Charlotte Bruus Christensen. Production design: Cave Quinn. Film editing: Claire Simpson. Music: Craig Armstrong.

Almost 50 years separate these two adaptations of Thomas Hardy's Far From the Madding Crowd, and the differences between the two owe as much to film technology as to changing tastes. As always, translating page to film involves compromises. Screenwriter Frederic Raphael remains faithful to the plot, with the paradoxical result that characters become far more enigmatic than Hardy intended them to be. We need more of the backstories of Bathsheba Everdeen (Julie Christie), Gabriel Oak (Alan Bates), William Boldwood (Peter Finch), and Frank Troy (Terence Stamp) than the highly capable actors who play them can give us, even in a movie that runs for three hours -- including an overture, an intermission, and an "entr'acte." These trimmings are signs that the producers wanted a prestige blockbuster like Doctor Zhivago (David Lean, 1965), which had also starred Christie. But Hardy's works, with their characters dogged by fate and chance, don't much lend themselves to epic treatment. David Nicholls's screenplay for the 2015 film is much tighter than Raphael's, and about an hour shorter. Nicholls makes most of his cuts toward the end of the film, omitting for example the episode in which Troy (Tom Sturridge) becomes a circus performer, one of the more entertaining sections of the Schlesinger-Raphael version. I think Nicholls's screenplay sets up the early part of the stories of Bathsheba (Carey Mulligan) and Gabriel Oak (Matthias Schoenaerts) much better, though he has to resort to a brief voiceover by Mulligan at the beginning to make things clear. His account of the affair of Troy and the ill-fated Fanny Robbin (Juno Temple) is less dramatically detailed than Raphael's, but in neither film is their relationship dealt with clearly enough to make us understand Troy's character. John Schlesinger, a director very much at home in the cynical milieus of London in Darling (1965) and Sunday Bloody Sunday (1971) and New York in Midnight Cowboy (1969), doesn't show much feeling for Hardy's rural, isolated Wessex, where the weight of tradition and the indifference of nature play substantial roles. What atmosphere the film has comes from cinematographer Nicolas Roeg's images of the Dorset and Wiltshire countryside and from Richard Rodney Bennett's score, which received the film's only Oscar nomination. And where atmosphere is concerned, Thomas Vinterberg has an edge thanks to technological advances: In Schlesinger's film, despite the fine cinematography of Roeg, the interiors seem impossibly overlighted for a period that resorted to candles and oil lamps for illumination. The change in film technology now makes it possible for us to see the way people once lived -- in a realm of darkness and shadows. (We can almost precisely date when this change in cinematography took place: in 1975, when director Stanley Kubrick and cinematographer John Alcott worked with lenses specially designed for NASA to create accurately lighted interiors for Barry Lyndon. Since then, the digital revolution has only added to the arsenal of lighting effects available to filmmakers.) So cinematographer Charlotte Bruus Christensen's adds an element of texture and mystery to Vinterberg's version that was technologically unavailable to Roeg, and not only in interiors but also in night scenes, such as the first encounter of Bathsheba (Carey Mulligan) and Sgt. Troy (Tom Sturridge), when he gets his spur caught in the hem of her dress. The scene is meant to take place by the light of the lamp she is carrying, which Christensen accomplishes more successfully than Roeg was able to. On the whole, I think I prefer the newer version, which is less star-driven than Schlesinger's, but in the end the best version of the story is Hardy's novel.

[controversial-blorbo-bracket]

Hi! I saw the posts wondering about how to put together the polls, and as an aspiring data analyst and current PhD student myself, i had some contemplations to share!!

Unfortunately i think the BEST way to go about it would require 64 options, as you would need to account for all the combinations of:

Know Character A (yes/no)

Know Character B (yes/no)

Opinion on Character A (Love/Hate/Both/Indifferent)

Opinion on Character B (Love/Hate/Both/Indifferent)

Which would be a 2×2×4×4 poll.

HOWEVER i had an idea. Accounting for the pollgoer knowing character A or B is pretty much non-negotiable if you want to preserve the quality of the data. So in a 10-option poll, that means we only really have room for two options past "which character are you more familiar with".

HENCE, i propose something similar to the following setup:

Two polls per pair of characters. A round 1A and round 1B if you will.

Round 1A: (for the purpose of determining strength of opinion)

[More familiar with A; Stronger feelings about A]

[More familiar with A; Strong feelings about both]

[More familiar with A; No strong feelings about either]

[More familiar with B; Stronger feelings about B]

[More familiar with B; Strong feelings about both]

[More familiar with B; No strong feelings about either]

[Familiar with A, or equally familiar with A and B; Stronger feelings about B]

[Familiar with B, or equally familiar with A and B; Stronger feelings about A]

[Familiar with both/neither; Strong feelings about both]

[Familiar with both/neither; No strong feelings about either]

.....just barely squeezed that into 10 options. I condensed "Familiar with A, or equally familiar with A and B" and vice versa into one option because i felt that having an opinion on Character B while knowing neither, both, or the opposing character better, was basically the same.

Point being, that poll would tell you who has the strongest feelings surrounding them, since you could take ratios to determine the true percentages of votes from people familiar with the character. I think this could be good for elimination; maybe you could do the bottom 50% or bottom 25% of people that got opinionated votes. Then after that maybe you could have a second set of polls that were individual to the characters that weren't eliminated, like a qualifier, again dropping out the lowest X% of characters that had too many indifferent votes.

Sorry for the ramble i just. I love data and polls and i majored in math and . Yeah. I hope literally any of this is helpful or sparks some ideas?? I just thought it would be neat to have each round have a matchup half and an individual half, honestly, because i love both of those ideas. It does sound like twice the work though. Whatever you decide, i am definitely looking forward to it!! Best of luck!!!

-sincerely, a fellow data freak (?) that literally would just clean and preprocess and analyze data for ages recreationally

Holy shit this is awesome. In a perfect world I would absolutely love to do a 64 option matchup tourney. But unfortunately I think this ideal solution shows how a matchup-style tournament with a maximum of 10 options will be inherently biased (in addition to causing scroll fatigue, which is something I, as a poll fanatic and accurate data lover, forgot that most people WILL stop reading past the first few answers if every poll is super long like my and your proposals. Thank you to all my followers who pointed this out- working in this field can make me lose sight of that lol).

So in that sense, thank you for helping me come to the conclusion that the best way to do this IS to have individual polls! Maybe in the future I’ll set up several hundred google forms and link to that for voting, so it’s not limited by tumblr polls. And that way people could even select multiple options! I would seriously consider running that if after this tournament people are still interested in a second one that’s matchup style instead. But for now individual polls seems the most fair way to go about it that complies with tumblr’s limited poll options!

[sissa-arrows]

While you are of course correct that the "Jewish Golden Age of Spain" was under Muslim rule, that isn't to say that all of Muslim rule in spain *was* the Golden Age.

In fact, most people give it as 910-1060 (+/- 50 years) when Muslim rule began in 700 (ish) and ended in 13-1400 (ish).

During those years was the Granada massacre, and Maimondes (probably one of the greatest Jewish scholars) was forced to flee the area lest he be forced to convert.

I didn’t say it was during all the period? When the regime change happened Jews were targeted and it’s fucked up but once the new regime settled they went back to having freedom of religion and could get back to Judaism.

They weren’t flourishing as much (neither were the Muslims albeit on a smaller scale) but Al Andalus was still a major pole of Jewish culture even after the Golden Age. North Africa was ruled by the same dynasty and that’s still where a lot of Jewish people chose to flee when Christian Europe was also an option showing that it wasn’t a generalized persecution but only during the Dynasty change in a specific area which was filled with internal fighting.

Again it doesn’t justify what happened in Granada at all but if one want to be historically accurate presenting all of Al Andalus as oppressive and horrible and presenting the Reconquista as some sort of rightful amazing thing all while pretending to care about Jews is fucked up. It’s not only fucked up it’s actually Islamophobic and just plainly racist as fuck because it paints Arabs as savages and whitewashes the Reconquista. Saying “while the Golden Age was during Al Andalus, some parts of it were not good at all and Jews were persecuted and the Reconquista didn’t help they just persecuted Jews even more” is accurate. Saying “Al Andalus was horrible Arab terrorism persecuting Jews and the Reconquista was good” is not only inaccurate it fits the Zionist tendency to whitewash European antisemitism and put the blame on Muslims or more precisely on Arabs. They even do it with the holocaust.

The point of my post was to show that tendency. Zionists prefer for Jewish people to be persecuted by white Christians than living in relative peace with Arabs or Muslims. Denying that it’s how Zionists see it shows a huge racist bias against Arabs and Muslims.

[the-plagueis-crew]

Chant, The Singer

NAME: Chant (Redacted)~

AGE: 25 years old, and I'll live forever more in my songs! (For a lore accurate Orc in Faerun she's nearing the equivilent of 50 or some shit, but Faerun Orcs are not my canon so fuck it she's just 25 out of a possible 80-100)

RACE: Full blooded Orc, Dear.

HEIGHT: I am a tall lady, it helps to keep eyes on me during my opera pieces! In layman's terms, I am 6'7"

GENDER/SEX: She/Her, darlings!

CLASS: I am a Bard of the college of Creation, but of course! One of the most famous Opera Singer in the world! (Level 14)

EXTRA INFO: Chant is specifically made to be a married gal, so her last name is (Redacted) because it's supposed to be either your Muse's last name or her default last name, Axeborne.

STATS:

STR 10 (+0) INT 13 (+1)

DEX 10 (+0) WIS 12 (+1)

CON 16 (+3) CHA 20 (+5)

BACKSTORY:

Chant was born near a Church shortly after her mother had disbanded her orcish warband, having chosen to give birth to her twin daughters in the safety of human civilization, not on the road with her fellow orcs. The very first thing that Chant ever heard was the religious singing and, well, chanting of sisters and clerics inside the Church and she found it beautiful. Growing up Chant realized that she had a beautiful voice and a talent for the bardic arts that neither her mother nor twin possessed, and decided to pursue such talents.

A heartfelt goodbye from her mother and the legal renaming and disowning of her former name later, Chant set out to find a college of bards. She wandered, giving shows and honing her craft for most of her teen years before returning to civilization, a fully-fledged Opera Singer (Bard) of Creation A/n/d///////////

Split timeline.

Choose the route you wish to follow.

The Bitter Cheater (NTR focus)

And marrying a deadbeat moronic and abusive orc named Axeborne, Chant had become a bitter wife who only feels alive when eyes are on her in the stage of the operahouse, earning all the money of her home she—I seek thrills only nights of passion with men who are not my husband can bring. I seek a man who will save me from my dead marriage and this has led me to a promiscuous lifestyle. Still, perhaps someday I'll meet someone who I'll truly fall for, be it love or lust.

The Loving Wife (Wholesome Lewds)

And marrying her Darling Husband (Your muse) has become a more vibrant and happy woman, faith—Faithful to my hubby and eagerly singing for him any time he asks! Be it a song of my voice or my moans, only my husband can bring me the joy of true creation, he is my muse, my reason to create! And I shall treasure him forever! Perhaps someday soon I'll even bring a little one into the world~

[blogofblogofblogs]

50 CELEBRITIES YOU (MAYBE) DIDN'T KNOW HAD TIES TO PRO WRESTLING

Even before Mr. T got involved in the first Wrestlemania, celebrities of one form or another have been stepping into the squared circle. A list of those well-known famous folks appearing just on WWE shows over the decades would be near-infinitely long, let alone once you add the ones that showed up in WCW, ECW, IMPACT and, now, AEW. But this list/article, which I first started putting together over five years ago, is an attempt to go beyond the more mainstream publicity stunts. With only a couple of exceptions, this list is going to be a little different, covering 50 of the movie stars, athletes and even politicians who appeared outside of those notable promotions. Now, in fairness, some on the list were wrestlers first and foremost, but I feel their connections with popular culture outside of the squared circle qualifies them for such a list. And now, the list:

50. BELA LUGOSI

Kicking things off is Dracula himself. One of the earliest examples of a celebrity taking part in a wrestling show, Bela Lugosi appeared on one show managing/seconding NWA legend Lou Thesz. While this may sound unreal considering Thesz' stance on theatrics in wrestling, Lou himself verified it on his old message board. It was essentially a publicity stunt (as all these things are, honestly) arranged by Sandor Szabo, as all three men with ties to Hungary had been acquaintances prior. Sadly, beyond Thesz confirming it happened, little else of the match and event have surfaced; no date, venue or opponent (possibly Szabo?) is known, nor is whether or not Bela wore his famous Dracula cape to the ring.

49. KIWI KINGSTON

Lugosi wasn't the only Universal Monster to get involved with pro wrestling. Unlike Bela, New Zealand-born Erine "Kiwi" Kingston was a wrestler first - with a 20+ year career stretching back to the late 1940s. - but his turn as the Frankenstein Monster in the Hammer/Universal co-production THE EVIL OF FRANKENSTEIN (1964) late in his career is undoubtedly what he is most well-known for today. He would have two more unremarkable cinematic outings and wrap up his wrestling career by 1969. He may not have been the most well-known Frankenstein Monster in either the Hammer or Universal series, he is technically the final Universal one, so that counts for something.

48. MAX PALMER

One of the legit giants of the wrestling ring, Max Palmer's billed height ranged anywhere between 7'7" and 8'2 While neither is likely accurate, he was still a tall, tall boy. Palmer originally took his massive frame to Hollywood, but only managed to snag a handful of (known) roles while there. Mostly used for sight gags on comedy shows starring the likes of Martin & Lewis as well as Jimmy Durante, Palmer would become somewhat iconic as one of the more prominent Martians in INVADERS FROM MARS (1953).

Palmer was also the titular monster in the B-movie KILLER APE (1953), sparring with Johnny (Tarzan) Weissmuller's Jungle Jim. Leaving Tinseltown behind, Palmer would soon find another calling in the squared circle. Originally billed under his real name, he would soon alternate between it and Paul Bunyan (and later, a third gimmick - Hercules) as he worked territories across the country, including (what would eventually be known as) Mid-Atlantic, CWF, AWA and Tri-State/Mid-South often taking part in battle royals and 2-or3-on-1 matches, but also working with the likes of Verne Gagne, Bobo Brazil, Dory Funk and Angelo Poffo. While it lasted longer than his acting stint, wrestling was also not Max's ultimate calling; he would retire from the ring after only five years. After that, he became an evangelist billing himself as Goliath For Christ. Most of us just know him as a classic movie monster.

47. TOR JOHNSON

An icon to bad movie buffs everywhere, Tor Johnson's wrestling career isn't *that* big a secret, especially if you watched Tim Burton's ED WOOD (1994). However, I'm a petty bastard and I want to use this as a platform to set one of that lovely film's many, many factual errors straight. While the movie shows the inept director discovering the brutish Johnson at a wrestling show and convincing him to be in a movie, the truth is Johnson's acting career (and to a degree, his wrestling career) were much more robust than Burton's take on things. In truth, by the time Wood and Johnson met, Tor had not only been wrestling for 23 years, but had been acting for 21 of them as well. With over two dozen film credits to his, er, credit prior to the Wood films, Tor had appeared (albeit often uncredited) in the films of W.C. Fields, Erroll Flynn, Abbott and Costello, and Bob Hope. His rasslin' career was nothing to sneeze at, either, with Buddy Rogers being the wrestler Tor worked with the most during his career. Very little of his actual ring work exists (the image used above is from a movie in which he portrayed a wrestler), which is a shame, but how many wrestlers can say they were a Don Post mask?

46. HAROLD SAKATA

Since we're kind of in the "actual wrestlers, just more well-known for some one-off in Hollywood" zone, let's continue with one of the most famous examples. First gaining some amount of fame winning a silver medal in weightlifting for the U.S. at the 1948 Olympics, Sakata began a wrestling career that would span nearly 30 years, working under his own name and as Tosh Togo. During that time, he traveled the world, worked over 2000 matches on record, feuded with the likes of Nick Bockwinkel and helped introduce Rikidozan to the business during a tour of Japan. In 1964, Sakata was cast in his first acting gig as the villainous henchman Oddjob in the James Bond film GOLDFINGER (1964). The film proved a massive hit, eventually amassing $124 million off a $3 million budget. With his sudden demand in Hollywood, Sakata would lighten his grappling schedule over the years as he took on more roles; while most of the films he appeared in were most of the B-movie nature, he fared better on television, where his instantly-recognizable appearance saw him cast in everything from the ROCKFORD FILES to GILLIGAN'S ISLAND. A memorable parody of Sakata's Oddjob would appear decades later in the first AUSTIN POWERS film, proving this great wrestler's legacy in the cinematic world doesn't look too shabby, either.

45. MACH FUMIAKE

Mach Fumiake (born Fumie Watanabe) is a legitimate legend of the ring. Starting off as a teenage singer and television personality, Mach would joining All-Japan Women's before she was 15. While her career was brief, she became a legend - winning (and losing) their top title, the WWWA World Championship before she turned 16 and retired before 18, leaving behind a legacy that influenced a number who followed and flourished.

BUT...as that may all be well and good and awesome, she's mostly known to western audiences as the lead superhero alien Kilara in the 1980 kaiju film GAMERA SUPER MONSTER. Sadly, little footage of her in-ring work has survived, so even many of those who know of her career have only ever seen her in this film.

44. / 43. LITTLE MAN MACHAN / LITTLE FRANKIE

Moving from Gamera to Godzilla, we have two wrestlers most widely known for portraying the Big G's son. Portraying Minya throughout the original Showa era staring with SON OF GODZILLA (1967), Masao Fukazawa - better known professionally as Little Man Machan - had been a theater performer and professional wrestler before stepping into a rubber suit and his most famous role. Sadly, very little is known about Fukazawa's wrestling career other than he apparently had one.

On the other hand, his successor Little Frankie (real name Masanobu Okamoto) had a very well-documented 10-year career, working for All-Japan, DDT and FMW. Two years into his wrestling career, he was hired to portray Little Godzilla in GODZILLA VS. SPACE GODZILLA (1994), essentially the same character as Machan's Minya in the rebooted continuity.

42. PAT ROACH

Another ring veteran with a long and storied career, Pat Roach enjoyed four decades as a mainstay on the British wrestling scene, stretching from 1960 until he retired in 1998 and holding the British World Championship in the mid-'80s. Nearly a decade into his grappling career, Roach was hired to play a small role in Kubrick's A CLOCKWORK ORANGE (1971) and spent the next thirty years working the two professions concurrently with pretty decent success. He ended up appearing in a number of notable films including three different Robert E. Howard adaptations (CONAN THE DESTROYER (1984), RED SONJA (1985) and KULL (1997), Harryhausen's CLASH OF THE TITANS (1981) and the James Bond vehicle NEVER SAY NEVER AGAIN (1983). But there would be two roles in particular that would imprint Roach in wider social awareness, the German Mechanic in RAIDERS OF THE LOST ARK (1981) and WILLOW (1988)

Roach's appearance in the first Indiana Jones film - he actually appeared in all three of the original trilogy in different roles - was brief but memorable, as his eager but ill-fated hulking mechanic spars with Indy for a few before eating an airplane propeller. It would prove memorable enough that his character received action figures, including a vintage Kenner release at the time of the film. Toward the end of the '80s, Roach would step before the camera again as General Kael for WILLOW, and while the film did not reach the heights of Lucas' previous STAR WARS, it was still marketed heavily and Kael's fearsome visage was plastered all over it.

41. MIKE LANE

Mike Lane may not be that well-known in either the wrestling or film worlds, but he definitely deserves a spot on this because, let's face it - how many wrestlers got to be villains on the 1966 Batman TV show? (Spoiler: There was at least one more, featured later on this list). Lane was a tall man - billed at 6'8" - and turned his size into a career, starting off as a circus act before getting into wrestling, where he was billed as Dick Hollbrook for a time before switching to Tarzan Mike. Throughout the 1950s, Lane worked mostly California promotions, battling the likes of Mad Dog Vachon, Hard Boiled Haggerty and Duke Keomuka.

But not long after getting into wrestling, Lane's height landed him a role as a boxer in THE HARDER THEY FALL (1956), which was Humphrey Bogart's final film role. While still wrestling, Lane picked up a side gig as an actor, parlaying his frame into multiple roles as the Frankenstein monster (FRANKENSTEIN 1970 (1958) and the 1976 television show MONSTER SQUAD) and Hercules in one of the many peplum films made in Italy at the time. Oh, and he was a Batman villain. Sure, he was just one of the "goons," as Tallulah Bankhead's Black Widow was the main villain for the two-episode story, but Lane's goon was a rarity in that he got his own villain name: Daddy Long Legs. Mike would bring his wrestling career to an end at the start of the '60s, devoting more time to appearing in the likes of KOJAK, KNIGHT RIDER and THE MONKEES, though he apparently returned for one single match in 1985, facing Outlaw Ron Bass.

40. RUSS FRANCIS

Moving away from movies to sports, here's one that has some of you saying "Wait, I thought we weren't counting WWF appearances and everyone knows this guy was in the Wrestlemania 2 battle royal." Well, yes, that's true, but here's what's also true: Russ was something of a "ringer" for the match. Russ was the son of wrestling promoter Ed Francis and teamed with his brother Bill for a number of years in the mid-1970s (all while playing football at the same time), even winning the NWA Hawaii Tag titles.

39. ERNIE HOLMES

And Russ wasn't the only ringer on the football side of that WM2 battle royal. About five years before taking part in that spectacle, two-time Super Bowl winner Holmes had previously dabbled in the wrestling territories, working a little over a dozen matches for the Georgia territory (feuding mostly with Baron Von Raschke), a tag team match with Buck Robley against the Freebirds (Hayes & Gordy) in Mid-South and a few sporadic appearances at a smaller Texas territory.

38. OTIS SISTRUNK

From a Super Bowl-winning Steeler with ties to the Freebirds, we turn to a Super Bowl-winning Raider with ties to the Freebirds. A Pro Bowler, Sistrunk's time in professional wrestling was fairly short. After a one-shot for Mid-Atlantic against Big John Studd, Otis went to Georgia, where he was recruited by Michael Hayes to help him against Terry Gordy and Jimmy Snuka. The ad hoc pair ended up winning the tag titles, but the business proved not to be for Sistrunk, as he would suddenly vacate the title and retire from wrestling after half a dozen or so matches.

37. WOODY STRODE

Few of the football players on this list are as legendary as Woody Strode. When the NFL finally allowed Black men to compete, Strode was one of two such men who broke the race barrier in 1946. Alongside a healthy film career (Woody was nominated for a Golden Globe for his role in SPARTACUS (1960)) that saw him appear in around a hundred roles in 55 years, Strode featured in Tarzan/jungle and Hercules/peplum movies, westerns, and was even a Batman villain at one point, as the Grand Mogul (told ya Mike Lane wasn't the only Bat-Villain on this list).

But before Woody ever played professional football, he was a pro wrestler. Strode first jumped into the squared circle in 1940, working the California area for a short time before his football career took off. Once touchdowns were in the past, Strode would again return to wrestling in 1949, spending the next eight years working the likes of Gorgeous George as he traveled everywhere from Hawaii to Canada. After a brief comeback half a decade later, Strode finally hung up the boots and focused on acting.

36. ALEX KARRAS

Few football players on this list had a more controversial career than four-time Pro Bowler Alex Karras. For about six months, Karras turned to pro wrestling between his college and NFL careers, having matches with the likes of Wilbur Snyder, Dick the Bruiser, the original Nicoli Volkoff, Don & Jackie Fargo, and Bronco Lubich. In the early '60s, Karras admitted to gambling on NFL matches, a serious no-no for an NFL player. With nothing else to do while serving out his suspension, Karras went back to his old grappling stomping grounds, joining the AWA for a losing effort against Dick the Bruiser before returning to the gridiron. Now, while a 4-time Pro Bowl player might be enough to get someone like Karras on the list, it's really what happened after both of his sports careers ended. See, Karras discovered he was only a pawn in the game of life.

Alex turned to acting, and in-between smaller roles in films like M*A*S*H (1974) and PORKY'S (1981) had two breakout roles that endeared him to millions. His supporting role of Mongo in 1974's BLAZING SADDLES and later starring with Emmanuel Lewis on the hit show WEBSTER (1983-87) as George Papadopolis. Oh, and he was the Hooded Fang in the children's cult classic JACOB TWO-TWO MEETS THE HOODED FANG (1978). Not bad for a guy that started off making some bad bets.

35. JACK DEMPSEY

While football is the most common sport one transitions from to wrestling, boxing isn't far behind it and some of the biggest names in the game have dabbled in wrestling as well. In the modern era, we have the likes of Mike Tyson, Muhammad Ali and Tyson Fury, but the legacy goes way back. In the 1920s, Jack Dempsey - while still World champion - would take part in public exhibitions with his friend Luigi Montagna, aka Bull Montana the wrestler to entertain crowds before his title matches. In 1925, the two fought at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum as part of a celebration for military athletes and personnel, with Dempsey tossing Bull out of the ring to win the match. After his heyday, Dempsey would do some referee work in wrestling, apparently reffing at least one match between Lou Thesz and Buddy Rogers, and by the 1940s, he would occasionally pop up on North Carolina wrestling cards in straight-but-semi-worked boxing matches.

34. JOE LOUIS

Dempsey was only a pioneer in the pugilist-to-wrestler field, and many World champions would follow. Joe Louis, whose title reign still holds the record for length, found himself in the same place as his boxing career drew to a close. Shortly after retiring from one ring, Louis stepped into a new ring in 1954, working across the Midwest, but his life as a grappler would be short-lived, as an injury in '56 led to his retiring from active competition as well. Joe would then become a referee before he returned to active wrestling in later '60s, usually as part of tag matches, and retire from the ring for good in the mid-70s.

33. JOE FRAZIER

Knocking out the boxing round of this list, Joe Frazier. The first man to defeat Ali, once Frazier was done in the ring (for a time, he attempt multiple comebacks), he found himself in the world of wrestling. While many are aware of his shots as referee for the Flair/Dusty match at the second Starrcade and as cornerman for Mr. T at Wrestlemania 2, Frazier had been part of wrestling for years prior. As early as 1979, he was reffing for Carlos Colon in Puerto Rico. He would put on the tights himself in April of 1984, having matches against Colon and Victor Jovica before refereeing a match between Colon and Bruiser Brody that same month (with the finish seeing Brody taking a punch from Frazier).

32. BABE RUTH

Few names on this list - or many lists, for that matter - are more legendary than the great Bambino, Babe Ruth. Still considered by many to be the greatest baseball player ever, Ruth remains an icon many decades later. After his days as a slugger were over (and even during them, according to the Bleacher Report), Ruth spent some time in 1945 as a celebrity referee in the Maine, Boston and Portland areas, and as pics suggest, would get more physical with the wrestlers than many refs of the era would.

31. TONYA HARDING

After finding herself exiled from figure skating after her husband orchestrated an attack on a fellow skater, Tonya Harding became a tabloid regular in the mid-'90s. Seeking to exploit her notoriety, wrestling promoters quickly began courting her. Weeks after the attack, the WWF made her an offer to appear at Wrestlemania X (she declined) and soon after, Takashi Matsunaga offered her $2 million to work for All-Japan, but for whatever (likely legal) reason, that did not pan out. That didn't stop wrestling from wooing the disgraced skater.

On June 24, 1994, Harding would make her wrestling debut in less grand fashion in Oregon, agreeing to appear on a bizarre show comprised of Portland-territory regulars and lucha libre stars, with even the press conference for that getting air time on CNN. For one night only, Harding was the manager of Los Gringos Locos (Eddy Guererro and Art Barr) and their trios partner Brian Cox, facing off against Blue Panther Jr, Perro Aguayo and Konnan. Things got really odd, as the promoters never had time to procure a manager's license for Harding, so after the ring introductions, she had to spend the match sitting in a chair halfway down the entrance aisle. That would be it for Harding's time in wrestling for over a decade, during which she found a new calling as a professional boxer. Around 2008, while competing for a boxing promotion in Arkansas, Harding was confronted in the ring by local wrestling personality Boss Campbell, who trash-talked the crowd and Tonya before she punched him out.

[breitzbachbea]

25 fruk kiss ?

30 sicire kiss ?

I feel like both are classics for the respective ships but what can I say I love reading the same thing over and over when it comes to fiction :D

NEVER TOUCH A RUNNING SYSTEM!!! IF IT AIN'T BROKEN DON'T FIX IT! That being said, after the day I had in Lecce, I could totally see this swapped, though. Michele and Harry sucking face while Catania is flooded. Doesn't even need to be rainy Ireland. For the latter I have to inquire with my sister, who went to South France for her holiday.

50 Kiss Prompts

FrUK - Wet kisses after finding refuge from the rain.

"Seriously, going outside without an umbrella?! Are you mad?!" Arthur ranted after they had fled into the nearest Métro station, which was packed due to everyone else having the same idea. "If anything, I would have expected you'd take one because you're afraid of your hair being messed up by the rain! Are there any brains in that STD-raided brain of yours?!"

Some bystanders were looking at them, but François was used to it at this point. He just beamed, even though the embarassment of the situation - the situation mostly being Arthur's non-existent filter - still there in the quirk of his eyebrows. "I'm very glad to spend the weekend with you, too, mon chéri."

Arthur still glared at him, his briefcase above his head. "I'm seriously considering going straight to Dover via Calais. At least that tunnel is dry!"

François sighed. Instead of escalating their argument further, he cupped Arthur's face - wet skin on wet skin, cold fingers on warm cheeks - and leant in to kiss him hello. He could feel the other pout against him and chuckled, but at least Arthur didn't refuse him.

"We definitely have to change clothes once we're home," François said and now Arthur, ironically, blushed even harder. "Don't plan on spending the weekend with a cold."

Arthur lowered the briefcase, which still dripped from its corners, much like a few of his wheat-golden strands of hair. "Yes, me neither," he said.

François wrapped an arm around his shoulder, which Arthur eyed with a frown, but the blush stayed the same until he spoke up again: "Because if we're sick, how will I be able to kiss and cherish you all weekend!"

He leant in closer, while Arthur's cheeks radiated enough heat to probably dry him within minutes. "Although, if we're both sick, then I suppose it wouldn't matter and I could kiss you all the time, anyways." With that, he cupped one of the wet, warm cheeks and pressed a loud kiss - he made a kissing sound at the top of his throat, to make sure - to his other cheek. He could feel and taste the faintest hint of cold rain water.

"I'll trip you onto the tracks, then your concerns won't just be limited to this weekend," Arthur said as he stared straight ahead, across the tracks and to the métro station's other side.

He was fascinated with how red his ears were. So he laughed and made no show of releasing Arthur, who clung to his briefcase as if his life - or more accurately, his honour - depended on it. "But chéri, you will only make more concerns for yourself this way. Since if I am gravely injured, I will need someone to take care of me - and you wouldn't leave such a task to my poor Maman and Arielle and Désirée, would you?"

He laughed while Arthur's lips pressed into a thin line and he was surprised that neither steam was shooting out of his ears nor that the rest of the rainwater simply evaporated off of him.

He thought about extending the list of potential caretakers by dragging the Scots into it, but was sure that this could actually end with him on the tracks. So instead he smiled and patted Arthur's other cheek before he put his hand on his chest. Sadly, the other was too layered up to feel his heartbeat. "No, you wouldn't, mon lapin, so let's just get to my appartment, change out of these clothes and occupy ourselves with more pleasant activities for this evening. There's a lovely little restaurant that opened up around the corner, trés chic, so I could make a reservation, if you'd like."

It took a few more laboured breaths, but then Arthur deflated. "Yes, sounds good," he said. When François put his hand back onto his cheek to turn his face, he said: "Oh, you can't be helped, can you?", but answered the kiss to his lips.

SicIre - Weak, sweaty kisses because it’s unbearably hot.

By this point, Harry was doing himself no favours. With the amount of times he kissed Michele's neck, the sweat he licked up must have dried his throat out.

"Beddu ..." Michele said and moved his head to the side. They sat in the shade of his terrace, on the cold stone tiles. Harry leant against the wall, Michele in his lap. Next to them on a tablet were the granite Michele had made them.

Harry tried to speak, but as predicted, his voice gave out. Michele lifted one of the glasses up and helped but the straw into Harry's mouth, who greedily sucked up the thick sugar crystals infused with lemon juice.

Once they had been finished weeding the fields and Michele had done some emergency repairs on an eggplant, because Angelo's chicken would have been able to break out and into the fucking aula bunker of the Ucciardone, Harry had ditched his shirt, shoes and socks in the shade. Michele had followed suit with the shirt, so that his back and Harry's stomach now stuck together.

"Thanks darling," Harry said after he had released the straw and Michele looked at the pitiful rest of granita with a raised eyebrow. He put naughty thoughts about Harry's sucking strength aside like the glass and picked up another one to cool himself down.

It was too hot for naughty thoughts anyways. With the way that the walls enclosed his property, there was barely a rush of wind to cool them down, not to mention that the further away one got from the seaside, the more oppressive the heat.

Thusly, once Michele released the straw and turned his head to look at Harry, they only managed pecks on each other's lips. They turned their heads sometime and every now and then a tongue darted out to swipe across lips and prod the tip of the other's, but everything else seemed like too much work.

"Mhm, are those strawberries?" Harry asked after one such playful meeting of tongues. He licked his own lips.

"Mhm," Michele hummed in agreement and put the straw back between his lips to suck up more of the strawberry granita. It was unclear if Harry's hazy, yet desirefilled stare was related to the granita or naughty thoughts that involved Michele's mouth.

"Knock yourself out," he said. "That's why I made so many." He put the straw to Harry's mouth, who blissfully closed his eyes and made short work of the granita.

Michele softly kissed the pulsing cheek, his lips barely brushing skin and more the fine hairs and the faintest traces of an emerging five o'clock shade that Harry would have to shave tomorrow.

~*~

The Ucciardone, properly the carcere dell'ucciardone, is a high security prison in Palermo. The aula bunker is a court building on its premises which had specifically been constructed for the Maxi Trials of the late 80s and early 90s, which saw nearly 500 mafiosi on trial.

[andreagreyshaw]

Okay guys so here the summary of the lore videos of Reverie Audios. I am not sure if I can call it a summary because I literally wrote down everything lol. Also go check the videos if you have time amazing art right there.

here we go!

REALITIES:

There are theoretically an infinite number of realities. Some people call them alternate realities but in reality there is no one true or standard reality. (Without a "normal" reality there can't be alternate realities). Humans can't travel outside of their own reality so the information from other realities comes from the beings that can travel between realities.

There are four known realities.

"Cunae" is the name of Humanity's reality.

People called the beings from other realties ‘’Demons’’ in the past now the name stuck.

These beings (demons) are categorized in three; Benevolent, ambivalent, or malevolent. (There are variations within each populations just like humans.)

FLAME DEMONS

The most known reality is ‘’The Inferno Dominion’’. The dominant species known as ‘’Flame Demons’’ frequently visit Cunea to make contracts, pacts or deals with humans.

The land is always dusty, and they have two suns, but neither is ever directly above, and the landscape is mostly rocky and mountains with no large bodies of water.

The Inferno Dominion is ruled by a monarchy. Also, there are regional government systems.

The monarch: Saaa'rthan (non-gendered)

Inner circle of advisors of the ruler: The derevan

Outer circle that resembles aristocracy: The derathal

Flame demons’ flame is like their soul. They are able to use and control it, but they also need to nurture it. Most of them have horns (shows the region they are from) and marks (shows they successfully reach adulthood) like tattoos. They are able to live up to 800 years old and their adulthood starts at 40-50. They are categorized as ambivalent, but they are quick tempered and prideful.

ICE DEMONS

Their reality is called ‘’Crystallis’’. They don’t contact humanity as much as flame demons. They have a kind of bad history with flame demons. Each region has their own monarch and there is a monarch council to rule the Crystallis. The world is almost covered with ocean and most of the wildlife is aquatic. Despite their name there is not much ice. They are categorized as ambivalent; they tend to be logical and neutral. Their average life span is almost 1000 years.

VERDANT DEMONS

Their reality is called ‘’Home of the Mother’’. All of the information on this place comes from Flame Demons. Flame Demons avoid and basically hate this place. It is like a huge tree called The Mother and demons living on the tree. Apparently the tree births the Verdant Demons. They don’t have a government system. They rarely leave their reality because they are so connected to each other and The Mother. They are classified as benevolent cause they only fight in self-defense. They live so long but we don’t know how long.

MIMICS

Their reality is called Venseus. We don’t know anything about them except they are so creepy, and they can change their looks. The less we know the better, but the landscape is similar to earth, and they are classified as ambivalent.

BLOOD AND DECAY DEMONS (It’s only one kind of demon don't let the name fool ya)

Their reality is called Metamorphose. Again, we don’t know much about them. They behave like mushrooms in the sense of rebirth. And they can reborn themselves (???). There are few of them but technically they can live forever. They are classified as ambivalent. Fun fact: only human meeting to blood and decay demon described them as beautiful, horrifying, and biblically accurate.

CHAOS DEMONS AND PUPPETRY DEMONS

Their reality is called Land of the Unlighted. These two demons are so dangerous, and they are malevolent and should considered to be active thread. We believe they live a symbiotic lifestyle. Just run for your life basically.

THE CROSSPOINTS

This is so complicated omg. ‘’Imagine a patchwork quilt and each patch is a reality. In between these patches are gaps. These gaps are like highways in between realities, and these ways are called cross points.’’ The abilities of being in one reality can be spread to the beings of another reality. (As in weakened form). And the power of the attuned comes from there.

THE ATTUNED (Humans with magic abilities.)

They are called the attuned because they are more closely attuned to the cross points.

Apparently, the powers initially come from the cross points but nowadays it is mostly hereditary.

Two categories of attuned: mystical and magical (technically it can be 3 categories with both mystical and magical.)

Mystical: their physical being is paranormal.

Magical: their abilities are paranormal.

ESSENCE EATERS

It is believed their powers come from Blood and Decay Demons. They are classified as both mystical and magical. The Institute was founded to study them. There are multiple legends and stories about them. succubi incubi vampire etc. essence eaters can feed from life essence, blood essence, and sexual essence. They also have a resistance to toxins poisons and illnesses. When they are recently fed they have a higher pain tolerance and increased strength. They have been demonized for years and they tend to stick together in ‘’circles’’. The children can feed off other essence eaters until they reach full maturity. They almost live up to 160 years old. They generally take another essence eater as a mate. Essence eaters can turn their non-essence eater mate. It doesn’t make the mate essence eater, but it makes them the essence eaters primary eating source this extends their life span. A mate is chosen only once. There is also going feral. It rarely happens when an essence eater loses their mate. Because of this most essence eater doesn’t take the risk of taking mate. Other reasons for getting feral are not known and are so rare.

SHIFTER

It is believed their powers come from Mimics. they can shift into one specific kind of a living being that is native to our reality. And the life systems should be similar to ours. Also, there is like a dominant DNA thing going on between the shifter kinds. The longer shifter stays in their shifted form the least likely they want to shift back.

THE ELVEN

(Hello Cyril ily)

They made approximately 13% of the attuned. It is not known where the Elven come from. Some people think the Elven aren't a result of other realities, but Cyril thinks those people are wrong lol. The Elven are considered to be mystical beings (but it is possible that an elven can also be a sorcerer which makes them both mystical and magical.) They are known for their ears. The Elven keep themselves hidden throughout history to live comfortable but nowadays there are many resources to assist in assimilation into "normal society". There are still many Elven prefer to isolate themselves. They can live up to 120 years old. Not long ago the elven were forced to alter their appearances if they wished to live amongst non-elven. They have a good memory, and they are more reasonable and logical than the average human.

TIME-JUMPERS

They are the only humans capable of entering the cross points. But they can’t travel to other realities. They briefly enter the cross points and re-enter Cunea at another time. They are the rarest type of the attuned (3%) and they are hard to keep track of. All of the time jumpers come from non-attuned parents, and they can’t reproduce themselves but why? We are not sure.

SORCURERS

Their powers don’t manifest until they are 10-12. And the powers are mostly genetic. Sorcerers can branch out (lol) into other branches with enough training.

4 main branch+1.

Mending Sorcery: Healing or fixing things. Overuse of their powers can take from their own health. Also, essence eaters dislike receiving mending magic. There are three specializations: healing, pacifying, and rebuilding(undo).

Divination Sorcery: ability to see into the future. Some people can clearly see guaranteed events. Some can see vague premonition. Some can see a wide variety of potential future. there are two types of divination. One can see the future with only their mind’s eye. The other needs tools (like water, fire etc. to see the future.

Cognitive Sorcery: their powers come from the land of the unlighted. There are four specialization: obscuration(invisibility), telekinesis (mentally moving objects), memory alternation (alter or wipe the memories) and telepathy (hearing the thoughts of others).

Elemental Sorcery: earth, fire, water, flora (also called vegetation), and storm (air + electricity).

Recasters: the plus one branch. They have no specialization. They have strong connection to cross points. They rely on what belled into our reality from faults. They can reshape the existence material. (Wow this was more complicated than all those realities.). Also, they need to register to SPAAB.

Faults: small tears in the fabric of our reality. (Not literally)

THE INSTITUTE: The Mysticality Institution of Research

The Institute has existed since 1713. It is not like an ordinary university.

SPAAB: Services for the Protection and Assistance of Attuned Beings. (Social Services for the magic people)

[denimbex1986]

'Since winning the Best Actor Oscar in 2019, Rami Malek’s career has taken a turn for the… less Oscar-winning. Perhaps it’s because he received that honor for the much-maligned Bohemian Rhapsody, a film whose accolades astounded and annoyed critics aplenty. But subsequent roles in films like Bond entry No Time to Die and last year’s box-office flop Amsterdam were either similarly criticized or, in the case of the latter, far from substantial to start with.

When he silently popped up an hour or so into Oppenheimer, then, it seemed like the latest meager appearance from a once-buzzy actor. (By 2019, he’d already won an Emmy, a Golden Globe, and an Oscar.) That Malek ends up starring in one of the film’s most searing, powerful moments came as a gigantic surprise. And it was a welcome one—J. Robert Oppenheimer (Cillian Murphy) had his own unqualified win, all thanks to Malek’s Dr. Hill.

As Hill, Malek plays one of the scientists working on the Manhattan project, albeit not with Oppenheimer directly. Instead, he works with Dr. Enrico Fermi (Danny Deferrari) at a lab in Chicago. While Fermi’s team create the nuclear reactor, both Fermi and Hill remain steadfast about the atomic bomb not being used directly on cities.

Despite holding this belief, Malek’s Dr. Hill is a man of almost no words. Instead, he mostly appears alongside Fermi, trying to offer Oppenheimer a petition to look at: the Szilárd petition, which 70 scientists signed and sent to President Truman in protest of bombing the Japanese. The two times that this occurs, however, Oppenheimer knocks Hill’s hand away in frustration. It’s a humbling role for Malek, as he is seen primarily as a minor annoyance in his scant appearances.

For much of the runtime, Malek’s Oppenheimer performance was so small as to almost appear like the result of a Faustian bargain. Yes, he could be in one of the guaranteed biggest movies of the year, but only if he agreed to keep his mouth shut the entire time. By the second time he showed up and said nothing, I openly laughed. Unpopular Best Actor winners stay losing, I guess.

Except that in Oppenheimer, this oft-mocked Best Actor honoree reminds us how he managed to collect all those awards in the first place. Malek holds his tongue for much of the film, only to let it rip as the film reaches its denouement—set years after he was but a petition-holding no-name in Oppenheimer’s periphery.

Oppenheimer’s structure includes two parallel timelines: one following the journey of the physicist’s horrible creation, the other following the events surrounding Lewis Strauss’s (Robert Downey, Jr.) congressional confirmation hearing. He was up for a Cabinet position in Eisenhower’s White House, a long-held dream of his that he’s been masterminding for years. The film builds up to revealing why Strauss is such a meaningful figure in Oppenheimer’s life: Strauss conspired to have Oppenheimer named as a communist, based on his petty dislike for the man. Being that this was the mid-’50s, such a claim was among the worst possible accusations a government employee could face.

The film establishes this as a thrilling courtroom drama, in which we root for the beleaguered “father of the atom bomb”—something that, at that point, is otherwise hard to do. We know that much of what he’s being accused of is neither relevant to his scientific achievements nor accurate; the assertion that Oppenheimer opposed the hydrogen bomb so as to set the Soviets up for a win against the States was a clear falsity.

Strauss himself admits to his aide, played by Alden Ehrenreich, that his great dislike for Oppenheimer encouraged him to help get the scientist’s government clearance revoked and effectively end his career. But he’s a charmer, and public opinion has long soured on Oppenheimer; Strauss’ confirmation for the Cabinet seems all but assured—until Dr. Hill is brought in to testify at the hearing.

Hill shows up to quietly, confidently, clearly call out Strauss for his wrongdoing. As the then-chairman of the Federation of American Scientists, his word held clout—so when he said that Strauss’ unfair damnation of Oppenheimer stoked the ire of the entire scientific community, it meant something. Malek’s typically measured cadence lends his performance a rousing gravitas, especially from a character who had up to this point been a distracting piece of wallpaper. Sitting before Congress, Malek’s Hill offers a searing indictment of Strauss, the character we have come to learn is Oppenheimer’s villain, all in a scant two minutes.

To tout Malek as a surprise witness at Oppenheimer’s turning point feels like the film showing all of its cards in the eleventh hour. It’s made more effective by the fact that his presence was felt before, albeit for the opposite reason. As Hill, he was largely a nonentity in Oppenheimer’s crew. In his one big scene, in which he forcefully shames Strauss for manipulating Hill’s fellow scientists into affirming Oppenheimer’s alleged communism, his presence is impossible to ignore; if he had more lines as an even smaller part of the large ensemble, perhaps his damning piece of testimony would have felt like less of a secret weapon.

This heel turn was especially striking, considering that Hill’s opinion of Oppenheimer seemed less positive beforehand. The physicist had repeatedly rejected Hill, who openly opposed the government’s use of Oppenheimer’s greatest invention.

Thanks to Hill, the film tells us, Strauss doesn’t get the Cabinet position he so badly wants—a win as much as any in a movie like Oppenheimer. And it’s the first career win Malek’s had in a while too: a moment in the spotlight that elicits gasps, applause, and a deserved heaping of praise.'

[smartdatatv]

The Game-Changing Experience of TV Wall Mounting: Why Toowoomba Homes Are Making the Switch

When James moved into his new home in Toowoomba, he couldn't wait to set up his entertainment system. His sleek, modern flat-screen TV was the focal point of the living room, but something didn't feel quite right. It took up space on the media console, making the room feel cluttered and small. After browsing through countless online tips, he decided to give TV installation Toowoomba service a try. A professional installer came by, and within a few hours, his TV was securely mounted, freeing up space and transforming the room. James couldn’t believe how much better it looked, and he wished he’d done it sooner.

James isn’t alone in this realization. More and more homes in Toowoomba are choosing professional TV wall mounting Toowoomba services not only for the sleek aesthetic it brings but also for the practical benefits. Whether you're trying to maximize your living space or improve your viewing experience, mounting your TV on the wall is more than just a design choice—it’s a smart investment.

Why TV Wall Mounting Is Gaining Popularity

TV wall mounting offers more than just an upgraded aesthetic. It's a practical solution for modern homes, particularly as flat-screen TVs continue to grow in size. According to Statista, the global demand for wall-mounted TVs has surged, with 76% of households opting for wall-mounted units in 2023. In areas like Toowoomba, where home layouts may vary between modern open-plan designs and more traditional settings, mounting your TV can provide a flexible, space-saving solution.

The Practical Benefits of TV Wall Mounting

Many websites talk about the visual benefits of TV wall mounting, but the practical advantages are just as important, if not more so.

Enhanced Viewing Experience: Mounting your TV on the wall allows you to adjust its height and angle to match your seating arrangement. This eliminates the need to strain your neck or eyes while watching, creating a more comfortable and immersive viewing experience. Studies show that proper screen height and viewing angle can reduce eye strain by up to 50% for regular TV viewers.

Space Optimization: In smaller homes or apartments, bulky TV stands can dominate a room. By mounting the TV, you free up valuable floor space, making the room feel more open. In cities like Toowoomba, where living spaces can vary in size, this space-saving feature can significantly impact how you use your home.

Child and Pet Safety: A lesser-known fact is that flat-screen TVs, when not properly secured, pose a safety risk. According to Safe Kids Worldwide, over 25,000 injuries in the U.S. alone are caused by falling TVs each year, especially in homes with children and pets. Proper wall mounting ensures your TV is securely fastened, preventing accidental tipping and creating a safer environment.

The Importance of Professional TV Installation

While some homeowners might attempt a DIY wall mount, there are crucial benefits to hiring a professional service for TV wall mounting in Toowoomba:

Accurate Placement: Professional installers know how to position your TV for optimal viewing angles, ensuring it’s neither too high nor too low for comfortable watching.

Cable Management: A key benefit of professional installation is the ability to hide cables and wires neatly, giving your room a clean, uncluttered look.

Secure Installation: Mounting a TV incorrectly can result in costly damage to both your TV and your wall. Professionals ensure that your TV is securely fastened using the appropriate mounts and anchors for your specific wall type, whether it’s drywall, brick, or plaster.

Lesser-Known Benefits of TV Wall Mounting

Most websites focus on the aesthetic and space-saving benefits, but there are several other advantages that often go unnoticed:

Improved Sound Quality: Many flat-screen TVs are designed with rear-facing speakers, which can result in muffled sound when the TV is placed on a console. Wall mounting can enhance sound clarity by allowing sound waves to project freely.

Customization Options: Professional TV wall mounting Toowoomba services offer a variety of mounting options, including tilting, full-motion, and swivel mounts, which allow you to adjust the TV’s position for different viewing scenarios.

Home Value Boost: According to HomeLight, properly mounted TVs can improve the marketability of a home, making it more appealing to potential buyers by showcasing a clean, modern, and organized living space.

Choosing the Right TV Wall Mounting Service in Toowoomba

When selecting a professional TV wall mounting Toowoomba, it's essential to consider the company's experience, customer reviews, and range of services. Top-rated providers will often offer complementary services such as TV setup Toowoomba, antenna installation Toowoomba, and ongoing support for any adjustments you may need.

Look for a company that offers:

Custom solutions for different wall types and room layouts.

Cable management services to keep unsightly wires hidden.

Installation guarantees to ensure that your TV is securely mounted.

Final Thoughts: Why TV Wall Mounting is Worth the Investment

For customers in Toowoomba, investing in a professional TV wall mounting Toowoomba service can make all the difference in how you use your living space. Whether you’re looking to improve safety, enhance your viewing experience, or simply declutter your home, wall mounting offers a practical and aesthetic solution.

So if you’ve been thinking about upgrading your home entertainment setup, take a cue from James: a professionally mounted TV doesn’t just look better—it can completely transform how you experience your home.

[arpov-blog-blog]

Don't let up, you have to turn out to vote to make this a reality. None of this punditry matters unless people turn out to vote for Democrats up and down the ballot. The Daily Mail has a right-wing bias, so this is really intriguing..."A data scientist who predicted the outcome of the 2020 presidential election has anticipated a landslide for Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, in a blow to former president Donald Trump's hopes to reclaim the White House. 

Northwestern University data scientist Thomas Miller said that Harris will knock Trump in a landslide election, telling  Fortune Magazine: 'It's gone from a drastic landslide in Trump's direction to a drastic landslide for Harris'.

Miller first gained attention after he accurately predicted the 2020 presidential election by unconventionally using betting markets rather than traditional polls to forecast the outcome. 

He achieved this by developing a model, which is based on 16 presidential elections, that converted betting prices into the popular vote and Electoral College projections. 

This model shows a narrow correlation between betting odds and the anticipated popular vote. 

As of September, Miller's model showed Harris would have 55% of the popular vote, which would translate into a significant lead in the Electoral College projections.

Miller's analysis also showed that support for Harris has expanded in recent months, despite the fact that Trump had taken the lead in June. 

But there has been a huge swing from when president Joe Biden was still nominee, as the odds have shifted drastically.

His prediction came as the latest poll by Quinnipiac Universisty suggested that Harris is pulling ahead in key swing states.

The survey found that Harris has a six-point lead in Pennsylvania - 51 per cent to 45 percent - a state that has been billed as a potential decider in the up-coming election in November.

In Michigan, meanwhile, the poll suggests Trump is behind Harris by 5 points, with the vice president winning the support of 50 percent of voters, while the Republican presidential candidate is backed by 45 percent. 

As for Wisconsin, Harris is narrowly ahead of Trump with 48% of voter support compared to 47%, the poll said.

Neither candidate is likely to win the presidential election while losing to all three swing states, making the latest poll grim reading for Trump and his campaign.

Trump won all three so-called 'blue wall' states over Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016, delivering him an Electoral College victory. Meanwhile in 2020, President Joe Biden won them back to the Democratic column. 

By narrow margins, voters in the three swing states says Trump is the better leader on the economy and immigration but Harris is the far-and-away leader on the issue of abortion. 

In Pennsylvania, 57 percent say Harris would do a better job handling the issue of abortion, compared to 38 percent who said Trump.

In Michigan it's 53 percent for Harris and 42 percent for Trump and in Wisconsin 53 percent also said Harris, while 40 percent said Trump.

The states are often referred to as the 'blue wall' because of their significance to democrat candidates. 

This comes after Harris received an endorsement last week from megastar Taylor Swift, who announced her support for the vice president just moments after the presidential debate.

The singer's bombshell announcement could have huge ramifications on the momentum with less than eight weeks until election day."