#nascar cup playoffs

[sortanonymous]

Last-Minute NASCAR Cup Playoff Predictions (No visual grid, sorry)

Round of 16 Exits:

Harrison Burton (I'm sorry, but... duh!)

Daniel Suárez (At least my second-favorite Trackhouse driver got in)

Austin Cindric (Penske playoff magic isn't unlimited)

Joey Logano (Please tell me reality sets in for both the Steelers of NASCAR and football this fall!)

Round of 12 Exits:

Alex Bowman (Making it this far would honestly be miraculous considering the dumb off-field distractions)

Martin Truex Jr. (I don't even really care about the title. Just please racing gods, let this legend go out with just one more win after the hell you've put him through these past 14 months!)

Chase Briscoe (SHR's final ride has almost certainly already peaked, but I still can't wait to see Briscoe in the 19 - as long as James Small doesn't waste his prime like he wasted MTJ's twilight)

Ty Gibbs (This last cut was tough, but I think his sneakily solid sophomore season goes no further, unless he can come close to a win anyway.)

Round of 8 Exits:

Denny Hamlin (I was initially on the fence between "It's his time" and "He'll choke again", but that brutal penalty could really be the dagger by this round)

Chase Elliott (Consistency should yield championships, but it unfortunately doesn't in modern NASCAR, so he may fall behind the other win-worthy drivers.)

Brad Keselowski (Maybe I'm high-balling him, but I think Brad has enough recent playoff energy left in him to carry RFK this far, but not any farther.)

Ryan Blaney (VERY close between him and Byron, but while Blaney is coming into these playoffs better than his championship year, I just get the feeling Hendrick will turn it up again and get Byron back to Phoenix. I saw someone call this the modern version of Jummie and Knaus's formula for the Chase, and I think they've got a point.)

Championship 4 and why they could win:

Kyle Larson - Even if this isn't his best season, it feels like a true banner year for Larson as a racecar driver, and with him being just one point away from the Regular Season title even after getting washed away from the most valuable race of the year, he could have a good case to win his second Bill France Cup. (Heck, it looked like he would seal it last year off another clutch pit stop, but unlike in '21, he wouldn't hold on during the final restart.)

William Byron - As said earlier, Byron may be catching onto the same formula the 48 team made a dynasty out of, and even if his championship-caliber season last year didn't end on a high note, his past success at Phoenix could be enough to put the legendary 24 car in championship lane for the first time in 23 years.

Tyler Reddick - Moving onto my two real championship contenders, Reddick made a heck of a late charge to win the Regular Season title on fumes (albiet with a little help from Mother Nature in Indy), and being arguably the best driver in Cup this year, he should be able to get over the hump and get 23XI to not just its first Championship 4 berth, but perhaps the first championship ring of any kind in decades for both of its very differently decorated owners. (Maybe its last Final 4 berth though considering this charter drama that I already lost track of like four months ago.)

Christopher Bell - Chalk it up all you want to bias for who will, after a certain retirement, soon become my second-favorite driver, but not only has Bell been insanely clutch in the playoffs as of late (he's damn near NASCAR's Mr. October at this point), but if the October Bell indeed rings all the way to Phoenix, he'll be in his paradise of the kind of flat tracks he's been so good at. (Legit, he may be the only person in the world who isn't a NASCAR executive that wants Phoenix to stay as the championship track, even if he's had championship success at Homestead in lower divisions.) Yeah, he lost his first two Final 4 berths, but those were respectively due to an OP Logano car and his tire becoming a nuke just as the race got going. Considering how he's already had his best season so far, he may have just enough to secure the 20 team (and in fact any JGR ride not driven by Kyle Busch) their first Cup title in nearly two decades. (It'd be especially since SHR's closing may mean the end of the last #20 car champion's 26-year involvement in NASCAR, as if Smoke really seems to care about that.)

And my pick for 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Champion is...

Christopher Bell! (Reddick was really close, but the Phoenix factor could be the difference. No, I'm just high on hopium after one of my two favorites collapses out of a playoff spot and the other is on pace to easily the saddest final season and a half of any Hall-of-Famer (present or future) that didn't die on the track.)

Now watch as these age like milk and the Wood Brothers win their first(?) ever Cup with a driver they issued a pink slip to months ago! 🙃🙃🙃🙃🙃🙃🙃🙃🙃🙃🙃🙃🙃🙃🙃🙃🙃🙃🙃🙃🙃

[kindalikevelvet]

I WENT TO TARGET IN A RYAN BLANEY SHIRT, SORTED THE MUGS LIKE SO, AND THEN MET A FELLOW RYAN BLANEY FAN.

[coimbrabertone]

Hear Me Out...It's Not Logano's Fault

I'm going to preface this by saying I'm not a Joey Logano fan at all. I think the Shell/Pennzoil scheme is decent, but the two different shades of yellow are annoying, I wish Pennzoil would let them put the logo across the rear fender, and in my opinion, it looks worse with the next gen rims than most schemes.

As for Joey himself, well...I kinda find myself agreeing with the whole "two-faced" comments. He's this smiling, kinda awkward suburban dad type guy out of the car, but then in the car he's super hotheaded and aggressive. It doesn't line up. That doesn't inherently mean it's an act, just that racing brings out a different side of him.

All that being said...I don't really think he's to blame for the 2024 NASCAR championship.

So, for context: yesterday was the final round of the NASCAR playoffs. Sixteen drivers make the playoffs based on regular season performances: this year, fourteen won their way in, and another two (Ty Gibbs and Martin Truex Jr.) got in on points.

Three rounds of three races followed, whittling down the field from sixteen to twelve to eight and finally four.

This year, the final four were:

Tyler Reddick, driving the #45 for 23XI Racing - Tyler won the regular season championship, won at Talladega and Michigan in the regular season, and won Homestead in the Round of 8 to make the championship four at Phoenix.

William Byron, driving the #24 for Hendrick Motorsports - William won the Daytona 500, Circuit of the Americas, and the spring Martinsville race. In the Round of 8, he squeaked by into the finale thanks to the help of Ross Chastain and Austin Dillon, whilst Christopher Bell was penalized for a wall ride. You can read more on that in last week's blogpost.

Ryan Blaney, driving the #12 for Team Penske - Ryan was the 2023 champion, and this year, he won at Iowa and Pocono to make the playoffs, and then won Martinsville in the Round of 8 to make the championship four.

Joey Logano, driving the #22 for Team Penske - Joey had the most circuitous route to the playoffs. He won at Nashville off the back of five overtimes and Hail Mary fuel save, won the first playoff race at Atlanta to advance to the Round of 12, got eliminated in that round at the Charlotte Roval by Alex Bowman, and then got reinstated in the playoffs when Alex Bowman was disqualified. Joey then, back in the Round of 8, won the first race of the round at Las Vegas to lock himself in the championship four.

So, one win in the regular season, a plate race, advancing through someone else's disqualification, and then even at Las Vegas - Joey's most legitimate won of the season so far - Bell was clearly the fastest car that day, but Logano got out ahead through strategy and managed to hold him off for the win.

Naturally, people started taking notice of this.

Already, they started saying that if Logano won - who was 15th in points at this point - would be an undeserving champion.

Some went so far as to claim it would be the final nail in the coffin for the playoff system.

So of course...Penske shows up to Phoenix and dominates. Joey Logano gets out into first, holds off Ryan Blaney, and Penske finishes 1-2 in the championship.

Joey Logano wins the 2024 championship with an average finish of 17.11 and based on a full season points format like the Winston Cup was, he'd still only be eleventh, despite the three wins late in the year.

Some have deemed it the worst championship performance of all time.

However...

What did you want Joey Logano to do? Not win the championship?

I don't like the guy, but like...he's a racing driver, of course he's going to do whatever he can to win the championship. He hasn't been particularly good or consistent through the season, but this format has kept him in play, so of course he's going to try and win his way to Phoenix and take a third championship.

Joey Logano doesn't care if you think his titles are illegitimate. He still gets his name up there with the likes of Petty, Earnhardt Gordon, and all the other multi-time NASCAR champions.

If a driver can win, they're gonna try to win.

The problem is the playoff format. Logano was fifteenth in points with one win but because the playoffs start with 16 teams, he was allowed to fight for the championship. Then, the win and advance format let him lock himself in right away with Atlanta. The Round of 12 was weak for him, but Bowman got disqualified and Logano was next in line in the points, so of course he was going to advance.

He went from out of the playoffs to back within a chance of winning the title overnight. So...he wins at Las Vegas, locks himself into the championship four, and gets to use Homestead and Martinsville to prepare for Phoenix.

And that preparation shows, because Blaney and Logano were far and away the fastest cars in Phoenix.

Logano got ahead with a pass early in the final stint, Blaney was faster and tried to pass him back almost immediately, but Logano was able to hold him off. Aero blocking, forcing Blaney to use the useless upper lane in the corners, and focusing on maximizing his exit onto the brief straightaways.

In short, Logano and Team Penske have figured out how to min-max the NASCAR playoffs.

Logano effectively won the championship with the fewest wins possible.

Once in the regular season, twice to move on in the playoff rounds, and then at Phoenix to win the championship.

I suppose that technically speaking, the fewest number of wins would be one. Win in the regular season to get into the playoffs regardless of whether or not you're consistent, manage to advance each round by points, and then have a non-playoff car win at Phoenix so you can win the championship without having to win in the championship race.

So perhaps Logano's season isn't the bare minimum the format requires, but it's pretty damn close.

Which again, not the driver's fault. They're going to try and win the championship for as long as they can. Logano had a shitty season, but the playoffs kept him in it all the way, and he was able to do enough to win it.

The fact that's enough to win it is the format's fault.

Let's go back to 2003 for a moment. NASCAR says that the playoff format was in the works for a few years before the 2003 season, but 2003 was widely seen as the reason why the chase format was ultimately adopted.

Matt Kenseth in the Roush #17 won in the third round of the season at Las Vegas and then consistent results kept him in the lead.

Meanwhile, Ryan Newman in the Penske #12 won at Texas, Dover, Chicagoland, Pocono, Michigan, Richmond, Dover again, and Kansas.

People didn't like the fact that a driver winning one race won the title while another driver took eight wins.

Two problems with that.

One: It's not like Ryan Newman was like second or anything, he was sixth. He didn't lose the championship because wins weren't worth enough in the Winston Cup points format, he lost the championship because he was checkers or wreckers all year long. Ryan took his first win of the season at Texas, but after that, he was 39th at Talladega, 38th in Martinsville, 42nd at Fontana, and 39th in Richmond. One win, followed by four races where he barely scored any points at all. That is why he lost.

Two: This year, Kyle Larson was the winningest driver, winning at Las Vegas, Kansas, Sonoma, Indianapolis, Bristol, and the Charlotte Roval. So if the format is supposed to favor winning, it didn't exactly do that, given that the championship four consistent of four guys who each had three wins, with Logano taking a fourth at Phoenix to win the whole thing.

So, this format doesn't favor winning the most, nor does it favor consistency. Instead, it favors winning at specific times.

Technically speaking, someone could win all twenty-six regular season races and then lose the championship off the back of a poor playoff run. Would that ever actually happen? No, it's not realistic, but it does show the flaws of this format.

And if you want more realistic proof that the regular season doesn't matter in this format, then just look back to 2015. Kyle Busch broke his leg, missed eleven races, and then used the playoff system to win the championship.

This is what NASCAR is now.

Logano in 2024 is just the latest example of that.

Don't hate the player, hate the game.

Well...I suppose you can hate the player too, just understand that the game is the real problem here.

[dennyhamlin-11]

when you find out fed ex is leaving Denny Hamlin

[milleniummarket]

[leo-dh11]

got bored, babygirled and pretty princessed my favorite driver

[doyouknow-themelonman]

Timmy Hill you have the opportunity to do the funniest thing ever

[coke-600]

First ever drawing of Ryan Blaney himself from 2022

[calkale]

manifesting winnipeg jets 2025 stanley cup champions

[zikbitume]

@NASCAR

Top 10 at @RichmondRaceway the #NASCARPlayoffs.

[whipplefilter]

In 2004, NASCAR introduced the green-white checkered/overtime, so no race would finish under yellow, as well as the Chase (which would later become the Playoffs system).

The 2006 Piston Cup still operates by an older ruleset, though, where the Champion is decided by straight points, which suggests they also don't have a green-white checkered. But do they race back to the caution or not? (Prior to 2003, when a caution flew, cars still raced for position to the start/finish line; in 2003, the caution rule changed so that the race freezes at the moment the flag flies.)

I was thinking about this in the shower last night, because when Lightning chooses to stop before the finish line and help The King finish his last race, he's at a point in the race where it would be easier to win than not. It would be easier to keep momentum across the finish line, and infinitely harder to come to a complete stop on track like he does. Unless you're wrecking, there's no point in a race you'd come to a full-stop on track under green, because it's really hard!

It would have been easier for Lightning to cross the finish and loop back around to push The King to the line. He'd have been back around in 30 seconds; The King would've even finished on the lead lap, because Lighting would still be behind him. But he doesn't.

He makes the explicit, physically difficult, choice to stop.

And then I thought, oh my GOD, if the tower had thrown a yellow for Strip's wreck, the race would've ended under yellow, and what if their positions were determined by the scoring loop, and Lightning won whether he crossed the line or not? WHAT IF THAT RUINED HIS LIFE because he didn't get to lose this race like he was trying to.

In a normal race, that yellow probably would've gone up immediately for a crash like Strip's--but then, maybe not. It wouldn't really have posed imminent danger to any other racers, because there were only three on track and none were behind Strip at that point. Strip technically also wasn't... on the racing surface any longer, though if EMS were gonna rush out there (which apparently they did not) they'd still want the yellow. The Piston Cup in general seems stingy with their yellows, but when/whether a caution flag flies is a constant controversy in NASCAR.

CAN YOU IMAGINE...

[sortanonymous]

I really don't know what to think of... that finish, but if the deciding factor is the Hail Melon-esque move, that shouldn't eliminate Bell because he didn't pass anyone with it. He had already passed Bubba and nobody else was on his lap. Just wanted to get that out there. But clearly way more to it than that. What even is this?

EDIT: Way too much time longer...

Uhhhhhh.... What the hell was that? They cite the safety violation when Bell didn't even pass anyone, and meanwhile turn a blind eye to Chevy essentially pulling Spingate on steroids! Great job beating those Hendrick bias accusations, NASCAR!

Why does this sport need to shoot itself in the foot so much again?

[kindalikevelvet]

THAT'S WHAT WE DOOOOOOOOO

Greatest drive of his career for a shot at the biggest prize again, and an attempt a historic second consecutive title. So damn proud of this team, continuing to grind it out every race.

6 top 5s in a row at Phoenix, maybe next week it's the win he so deserves in his biggest moment.

[belles1011]

Notes from Off Track (Rain In Brazil and Playoffs)

- Hinch actually gets to be home for a while now 🏠

- They’re going to the horse racing together in 10 days or so 🐎

- Ja has lost some stuff in his hotel room because he didn’t unpack in Brazil oops 🇧🇷

- Thim has his Christmas decorations up already 🎄

- Breeders Cup-date: Alex had a great time, he picked the top three in his bet so 💰

- F1 chat: Alex said “I told you so because he predicted rain and Max would win” 🌧️

- Talked about the dodgy timing of the virtual safety car (sprint) and red flag (quali) (and the history of the safety car) and I’m not saying Alex was anti-McLaren (because he explicitly said it wasn’t) but idk if he would have said some of it two months ago 😂

- Rossi did some critiquing of Lando but mostly he fanboyed over Max a lot 🪭

- I’m still sad I don’t have F1TV cos I would have liked to hear Hinch do filler for the entirety of Saturday ahaha 🎤

- Hinch mentioned some of the legal stuff about refunds and stuff pre-race when they didn’t know if F1 would go ahead - apparently 2 laps of green flag running for it to be called a race, and 2 laps of running behind the safety car for the promoters to not have to refund tickets 🎫

- They discussed Taylor Swift in Indy and Alex was surprisingly knowledgeable about the situation 😱

- The NASCAR race sounded chaotic. (I’ve never watched NASCAR and idk how to in the UK but I don’t think I will ever understand it) but ultimately Alex thinks it’s silly the way the playoffs are done 🤷��‍♀️

- ALEX IS DOING AN INTERNATIONAL COOKING CHAMPIONSHIP EVENT THIS WEEKEND. If you are in Indy this Saturday please go and report back. He’s with Clayton Anderson so I hope they sing something together 🎶

[blusical]

"win and in shouldnt be a thing" "another example of nascars broken system-" my guy (gender neutral), a driver got his first career cup win, 100th win for his team and did it during his LAST YEAR with that team. let us be happy. (but also, i too hope nascar fixes this wacky playoff system).

[milleniummarket]