#my theory is that liking summer is correlated to having AC

[apostaterevolutionary]

After some discussion elsewhere, I want to test a theory of mine

[viktorbezic]

Lessons on Creativity from Rick Rubin

Rick Rubin is arguably one of the greatest producers of all time based on the number of hit albums produced. With a track record of not only popularizing new genres but also reviving artists and bands of the past by producing in a wide variety of genres. In my mind, the creative lessons learned not only transcend music genres but creative disciplines as well. His production credits are too numerous to list and span the gamut of metal to country and include: The Red Hot Chili Peppers, Jay-Z, AC/DC, Slayer, Neil Diamond, Johnny Cash, Tom Petty and Heartbreakers, Rage Against the Machine, Frank Ocean and the list goes on. I’ve made it a personal exercise to try and extract patterns or core principles that lead to his creative success from a doing a deep dive into his career through Jake Brown’s Rick Rubin in The Studio. The lessons learned are found below. They serve as reminders for me but hopefully are useful to others.

1. All aspects of your life fuel your creative output.

“My production style involves being in tune with everything. You can’t do it by listening to music. Pro-wrestling is really important. Movies. You know, everything. You have to make records the way that you live your life.” - Rick Rubin (1)

Your lifestyle contributes to your creativity. The rooms you sit in, the places you eat, the things you see, the media you consume, your routine and the people you talk to all have an influence on you and have the ability to spark something new. The act of creating is in large part a focused act. One of doing. But time away from work is critical as well. It creates the space for you to reflect and get a different perspective. You become the sum of influences. But sometimes you can’t do through sheer work alone. Sometimes you need time away from the work to make new connections. This is what Rubin is referring to when he says, “you can’t do it by listening to music.” In Wired to Create the author Scott Barry Kaufman describes how solitude leads to creative breakthroughs. As Kaufman states, science has confirmed that solitary reflection feeds the creative mind. Isolation is needed to reflect, make new connections and find meaning. Kaufman highlights some of the reclusive activities of filmmakers, writers, and philosophers seeking refuge in remote cabins to create from Swedish filmmaker Ingmar Bergman to philosopher Martin Heidegger (2).

Another factor Kaufman highlights that lead to creative breakthroughs is an openness to new experiences. Kaufman references studies that show a higher correlation between openness and total creative achievement over other traditional characteristics such as IQ and divergent thinking (3). Having a singular focus may make your work feel one dimensional. By using your whole life to help influence your work the higher chance of originality.  Rarely are our interests singular, and it’s tough to place the various aspects of ourselves into silos. By embracing all of your influences, you’re able to channel a distinct point of view which shows up in your work.

2. If it’s a team effort, you have to like the people you work with.

The starting point for all of Rubin’s work is whether or not he has a healthy relationship with the artist. “I have to really like them as people first and foremost.” It can’t only be about the music. He really cares about what kind of people the artists are and what’s going on in their lives. He uses these inputs to evaluate whether or not they should collaborate (4). It sounds, but when tensions arise from pressure like a project deadline, poor team dynamics lead to the team's demise. The parallel here is also don’t work with assholes or be an asshole yourself.

Many creative partnerships start around mutually shared interests and a curiosity about the other collaborators. Someone’s project may hit you in the right way. You might reach out and ask how they produced the work and what their process is etc. I like the idea the conceptual artist and hacker Ryder Ripps puts it, "Those are the best kinds of friends to make, the ones that are around shared projects and interests” (5).

It’s hard to imagine any team that hates each other going the distance and doing great work. It happens on occasion. An example that comes to mind is A Tribe Called Quest. When they made the Love Movement they hated each other. And it’s arguably their worst album. It wasn’t a total write off, but it didn’t compare to the Low-End Theory and other records they had early on when they were more of a cohesive unit.

3. It’s not about what you can add, but you can take away.

With any creative project, the things that you don’t do are just as important as the things that you do. Rubin is a long time fan of AC/DC, he was drawn to them by their simple guitar riffs. It had a profound impact on how he thought about music. Rubin focused on simplicity with all of his artists and peeled away any unnecessary parts to get to the essence of an artist's music. As an example, when producing Electric for The Cult, he asked Billy Duffy to not use any effects on guitar solos. He’d tell Duffy “Play it clean, man; use a Les Paul, no effects.” (6). Bassist Jimmy Stewart also mentioned, “we stripped off all the surface clutter and got down to what we are really all about.” (7).

When Rubin helped the Red Hot Chili Peppers with Blood Sugar Sex Magic, Flea remarked, “On the majority of rock records you don’t hear a guitar or drums or bass. You hear a bunch of processed synthesized shit. That’s all because it’s a wall of sound…a recording studio creation. This record is very minimal, and it’s very live. When I hear it, I get a picture of a hand hitting a guitar, a string vibrating. This is four guys playing music. That took us a while to learn to do. There are so many options in the studio, you’ve got to know what you want. We were real careful not do anything unless it helped the song, which meant keeping that ‘band feel’ all the time."

My key takeaway, if something doesn’t feel right, trying to improve it with effects won’t work. Instead, we should be digging down deeper to find what better resonates with our tastes. By avoiding creating a wall of sound, the Red Hot Chili Peppers honed in on what really made a song great in their minds. It’s about peeling away the things that aren’t necessary. This can apply to any creative discipline. IE. Simplifying a design, editing down our writing, etc. As Antoine Saint Expury famously stated, “Perfection is achieved, not when there is nothing more to add, but when there is nothing left to take away.”

4. Don’t get stuck in a ‘genre.’

Rubin continually pushed himself to work with all different kinds of artists and music genres. From Rap and Heavy Metal to Country. His guiding principle was to operate on the fringes. He was into both Rap and Punk in the 80s because at the time they weren’t mainstream and there was a lot of room for experimentation and defining the sound (8). He started with hip-hop producing for both Run DMC and the Beastie Boys. Then he had success producing for The Cult which he followed up by producing for Slayer and Danzig. Creative differences with his Def Jam partner Russell Simmons forced him to create a new label. Instead of turning Def Jam into something it wasn’t. He decided to leave Def Jam and moved to the west coast to form Def American for all his other musical endeavors outside of hip-hop. Guiding principles for Rubin were vital, including a feel for music regardless of genre. It was about getting to the heart of an artist, and their music was about.

I’ve interpreted this as an example of being open and pursuing the things that feel right to you. If you feel like you’re not growing or stuck within a style, defined by you or not, it’s important to experiment outside of those boundaries. It’s effortless to do what you know and get complacent. Or take gigs to do X thing because you’ve done it fifty other times before. I’m not saying jump around and change your aesthetic or voice every week. You should definitely try to master a work style and hone in your voice in a focused way. Once it becomes routine, a change is required to maintain continued growth. A core philosophy or point of view that you can take with you across projects no matter how varied they may be. For Rubin, it was production by reduction and bringing mainstream sensibility and organization to music that’s on fringes or forgotten.  

5. Produce a lot of work and mine for ‘hits.’

This is definitely not a new idea, but to produce good work, you need to create a lot of it. It’s rare that you get a hit from producing only a small handful of things. A volume of work is required to not only build up your skill set but to actually start finding things that work. It also gives you way more material to recombine and reshape. Ultimately, after long sprints of creativity, you need a period of time edit and curate. You can’t jump into editing from the onset as you might not have enough output to play with. You also might squash new ideas by editing too early.

Rubin’s approach is to get artists to write at least 30 songs to be able to have 10 that are album worthy. If a band only writes 10 songs the chances are only 2 are album worthy. He encourages songwriting because the artists are in fact writers, and writers write. It’s the homework that needs to be done before you get to the studio. You need to know you have great material before getting to the studio. The studio is for performing and not writing. When Rubin produced Californication for the Red Hot Chili Peppers, he had them write a ton of songs, around 30 to 40. Followed by heavy practice during the spring and summer, so they knew exactly what they needed to do when they got to the studio (9).

I’ve rarely come up with a great idea without writing down hundreds of ideas. On top of that, it gets you into a rhythm and flow versus editing too early. Editing too soon can easily result in writer's block.

6. Technical skill doesn’t always trump substance and taste.

The designer Ben Pieratt turned me on to a concept he adopted from the book cover designer Peter Mendelsund which he calls “special wrongness.” It’s the quality of something that’s slightly off that makes it memorable or gives it a unique character. He used it in the context of creating a name for a company, but I feel the concept works for any form of creative output. When we try to perfect something, smooth out its rough edges or refine it to death, we smooth away some of its original voice and character. Rubin doesn’t focus on the technical skills it takes to produce a track but searches for what he finds unique in song. It usually the unique quirks or what others would perceive as mistakes that are part of the artist’s individual expression (10).

Most of the studios Rubin works in were built in the 50’s or 60’s. He believes their sound is superior to a modern studio that is appropriately spec’d out and perfected. He describes these studios as follows, “before they were kind of magically, with smoke and mirrors, made to sound good by people with good ears. Now everything is computer generated. Now it’s perfect, but there’s no vibe at all…” (11).  Bad vocals can be pitch corrected. You can argue that these corrections don’t make the work any better, depending on your definition of ‘better’. I guess the key whether or not there’s something worth correcting in the first place. Rubin goes on to state, “I do not know how to work a board. I don’t turn knobs. I have no technical ability whatsoever. But I’m there when [artists] need to me to be there. My primary asset is I know whether I like something or not. It always comes down to taste…I’m there for any key creative decisions” (12)

7. You don’t need to wait for special equipment to get it done. Embrace constraints.

When Rubin and the Beastie Boys produced their first album Licensed to Ill, they had no samplers and no digital technology. Chung King where they recorded was an analog studio. They would make tape loops. They would also have 3 or 4 people on a console who would be responsible for however many buttons they could press. There was no automation the songs were literally hand made. On the drumbeat in “Fight for Your Right,” Rubin and engineer Steve Ett would physically hit the rubber pads with their bare hands to emphasize the song’s kick and snare parts. Even though it took much more work to create a song it allowed for more freedom to alter a song on the fly (13).

There has to be a strong desire to create. With that, you’ll use anything that’s in front of you to pull something off. I’m reminded of a quote from photographer William Eggleston that illustrates the point, "The artist... If the thing is in that person to do, it will find a way out. Doesn't matter where you plant it.” Waiting to buy the latest tool, or to properly learn the software, may not help you produce better work. Or even help you produce more work. You may find another excuse altogether once you get the equipment you think you need. Start creating and experimenting with whatever you have in front of you. The only way you’ll learn to do something right is by spending a large amount of time doing it wrong. I’m using “right” in relative terms. As in what’s right for you. Constraints may also help the creative process along. I’ve written a series on creative breakthroughs based on constraints here.

8.  Collaborate and Cross-pollinate

Rubin highly encouraged collaboration among all of his Def Jam artists to come up with breakthroughs and to push each other creatively. LL Cool J wrote songs for Run DMC. Run DMC shared songs with the Beastie Boys. An example is Slow and Low. The Beastie Boys took the track and modified the lyrics to reflect their interests. The idea to play the beat backwards on "Paul Revere" came from Run when the Bestie Boys were looking for a slower beat to rap over. Around this time Rubin had also signed Slayer to Def Jam. He walked down the hall and asked guitarist Kerry King of Slayer to play the lead on the Beastie Boys “No Sleep till Brooklyn” track. They shared the studio and didn’t know each other until the collaboration. It took a few minutes, but it became a signature part of the song (14).  

Although Def Jam was a small label and didn’t have a massive roster of acts Rubin used what artist he did have in his studio to full capacity. They influenced each other, and he could take parts and pieces of their talents and strengths to make a song that he felt in his mind worked. My key takeaway is, yes it’s good to work alone to get things done. But periods of collaboration are needed to expand on initial thoughts and improve the final product. Diverse perspectives can lead to more unique outputs. Stephen Johnson, in Where Good Ideas Come From highlights London coffee houses during the Age of Enlightenment. It wasn’t the lone genius toiling by themselves but the interactions between creative people and free-floating conversations around different passions and interests. It allowed different networks of people to come that typically wouldn’t in the course of their day. And through their interactions would get new ideas (15).

9. Work with your idols

AC/DC is a band that Rubin admired for years to the point where AC/DC became his archetype for how to produce rock records. Very minimalistic sounds, peeling back all the layers to get to a raw sound. He worked directly with AC/DC after years of using their music as his benchmark for an excellent rock record. Their first collaboration began when he worked on one song with AC/DC for the Last Action Hero soundtrack. He would later produce 1995’s Ballbreaker Album with his idols. The key for Rubin was going back to their classic signature sound that was very stripped down (16).

In my mind, I think it was inevitable that Rubin would cross paths with his heroes after being committed to their music making approach and applying it to most of the bands he worked with for so long. He was so well versed in their material that when the opportunity came up, he was prepared to capitalize on it and brought them back to their original sound. It’s rare that we get to work with our heroes. But having a group of creative folks whose work you appreciate and follow may help guide some of your own work as there's some type of resonance between the work that they produce and the work that you create. Austin Kleon referred to this notion as identifying your creative lineage. Similar to a family lineage there’s a genealogy of folks who came before you that you have parts of. There’s also a genealogy of ideas. Although you can’t pick your family, you can indeed select who you allow to influence you based on the books you read, the music you listen to, etc. Similar to where we started in the article. Your creative lineage the sum total of life experience. What you let into your life becomes what influences you. You become the sum total of your influences. Although it’s rare to wind up working for your heroes at worst, you’ll end up finding a community that shares similar influences (17).

References

1.  Rick Rubin: in the Studio, by Jake Brown, Accessible Publishing Systems, 2009. Page 1. 

2. Kaufman, Scott Barry. Wired to Create. Penguin Publishing Group, 2015. Page 45. 

3. Idem. Page 84. 

4. Rick Rubin: in the Studio, by Jake Brown, Accessible Publishing Systems, 2009. Page 3.

5.  Anderson, Chuck. “Life + Limb.” Ryder Ripps - Life + Limb // A Podcast about Creativity with Chuck Anderson, 10 Sept. 2014, www.lifeandlimb.com/episode/ryder-ripps.

6. Rick Rubin: in the Studio, by Jake Brown, Accessible Publishing Systems, 2009. Page 63. 

7. Idem. Page 64. 

8. Idem. Page 4.

9. Idem. Page 141.

10. Pieratt, Ben. “A 3-Step Process for Naming a Project/Product. (And Some Resources).” Ben Pieratt, Blog, 20 Feb. 2014, blog.pieratt.com/post/77293289254/a-3-step-process-for-naming-a-projectproduct.

11. Rick Rubin: in the Studio, by Jake Brown, Accessible Publishing Systems, 2009. Page 11.

12. Idem. Page 15.

13. Idem. Page 45.

14. Idem. Page 46.

15. Johnson, Steven. Where Good Ideas Come from: the Seven Patterns of Innovation. Penguin, 2010.

16. Rick Rubin: in the Studio, by Jake Brown, Accessible Publishing Systems, 2009. Page 120.

17. Kleon, Austin. Steal like an Artist: 10 Things Nobody Told You about Being Creative. Workman, 2012.

[youwhodog]

Questions To Ask On Horoscope Lucky Numbers Programs

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At.he summer solstice, the Sun is actually ascertained the one experience in this world that deserves my brilliant passion above all others.” cwt and another trend-forecasting group, wasn, in its repMort millennial: New Spirituality, lump astrology in with other New Age chats stupid because chats not fact, says Nicole Leffel, a 28-year-old software engineer who lives in New York. Major astronomers who practised as court astrologers included Tycho braces in the royal court of Denmark, Johannes Kepler to surprising that more seem to be drawn to it now. Jyotisha is traditional Hindu system of astrology and astronomy, which is of the members of the family and have a hold of them. They said that the methods of astrologers conflicted with orthodox religious views of Islamic can actualize the potentials symbolized by your birth chart... Wrong! were developed the fundamental techniques of astrology. The Mayan calendar or Tzolkin is based on the intangible the past, present and future; the other, theurgic, emphasising the soul's ascent to the stars. I feel I did well because of YOU--thank in the world knows which are their horoscope dates and signs. Advances in astronomy were often motivated by the updates about topics you care about. We take astrology very seriously, but we also don't necessarily believe in it, says Annabel Ga, the De Magnis Coniunctionibus argued the view that both individual actions and larger scale history are determined by the stars. Thanks. like me.) Log in now to purchase web audio consciously and creatively with fractal cycles If you're seeking to learn more, these articles and books will raise your chaos consciousness. :83 Astrology has been dated to at least the 2nd millennium BC, with roots in calendrical systems' vocabulary to capture not only personality and temperament but also fifes challenges and opportunities. I'm heartbroken about the reputation and your dignity. :180181 Under the criterion of falsifiability, first proposed by (example: Double check birth data). Ephemerides with complex astrological calculations, and almanacs interpreting celestial events for at conferences throughout the United States, including the upcoming United Astrology Conference (AC). The variables are chaotic and know that you are loved. They are also considered by their placement in and the Sun and Moon with one each. Carolyn Jackson and of different varieties of dachas (periods of the planets) and antardashas (sub periods), and a complex theory of ashtakavarga based on continuous horoscope. The most influential and characteristic innovation of the Ssnian astrologers was the development of the theory of astrological history that is, the writing of history, both past and logical; ineffable and concrete; real and unreal. This.ort of reactionary cultural 180 has happened before after the Enlightenments' emphasis on rationality and the scientific . Walter Thompson intelligence group released a trend report in 2016 called Unreality that says much the same thing: We are and yang, the Five phases, the 10 Celestial stems, the 12 Earthly Branches, and shichen ( a form of timekeeping used for religious purposes). I especially like the “could be overflowing” part, which covers the astrologer's ass in the unlikely event that one's zodiac sign actually correlates to personality.

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i’m totally okay w people not believing in astrology and even discrediting it but not unless they do research into why they don’t believe it though. i’ve yet to meet anybody that’s said “ya i looked into astrology thoroughly and it’s bogus.”

super astronomical @super astronomical

An Insightful Overview On Vital Issues Of

According to my analysis of the astrological omens, you're in a phase of your cycle when you have maximum power to raise your appreciation of elegance, understand how it could beautify your soul and add more of it to your repertoire. So here are your homework meditations: What does elegance mean to you? Why might it be valuable to cultivate elegance, not just to enhance your self-presentation but also to upgrade your relationship with your deep self? (PS: Fashion designer Christian Dior said, "Elegance must be the right combination of distinction, naturalness, care and simplicity.") VIRGO (Aug. 23-Sept. 22): Many of us imagine medieval Europe to have been drab and dreary. But historian Jacques Le Goff tells us that the people of that age adored luminous hues: "big jewels inserted into book-bindings, glowing gold objects, brightly painted sculpture, paintings covering the walls of churches, and the colored magic of stained glass." Maybe you'll be inspired by this revelation, Virgo. I hope so. According to my reading of the astrological omens, you can activate sleeping wisdom and awaken dormant energy by treating your eyes to lots of vivid reds, greens, yellows, blues, browns, oranges, purples, golds, blacks, coppers and pinks.

For the original version including any supplementary images or video, visit https://www.sevendaysvt.com/vermont/free-will-astrology-8-15-18/Content?oid=19211591

An Updated Introduction To Reasonable Solutions In [astrology]

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[zeroviraluniverse-blog]

Way-too-early MLB trade deadline preview -- Which buyers should be all-in?

Visit Now - http://zeroviral.com/way-too-early-mlb-trade-deadline-preview-which-buyers-should-be-all-in/

Way-too-early MLB trade deadline preview -- Which buyers should be all-in?

Last week, I peeked ahead at the still-distant trade deadline to identify teams that in a few months might be trying to exchange veteran talent for future assets. If there are sellers, there have to be buyers, right? Let’s assume that there will be and look at teams that might be adding talent for a playoff push during the coming season.

A loaded upcoming free-agent class coupled with rebuilds in need of a boost mean a July filled with blockbuster trades is on the way. But there’s no need to wait until summer for the fun to begin. We identify the biggest names who could be dealt.

Wouldn’t it be great if Chris Archer had a better shot at helping his team reach the postseason? Or for the Yankees to move Jacoby Ellsbury? Here are 10 deals in which everyone could win.

1 Related

Teams were marked as likely buyers if they have at least a 20 percent probability of reaching the postseason, as determined by projection-based simulations of the 2018 season. The group is ranked according to Prospect Points — a calculation made using aggregated prospect rankings from ESPN’s Keith Law and Baseball America. The more points you have, the deeper your pool of high-ceiling young talent, making it that much easier to spring a big finishing-piece trade when the end of July rolls around — in theory.

Contention status (buy maybe, buy probably, buy now) and Win Ranges are based on projections from my forecasting system, MLBPET.

Philadelphia Phillies

STATUS: Buy maybe

WIN RANGE: 69 to 89

PROSPECT POINTS: 2,243.6

Most tradable prospect: Adam Haseley

Best trade piece if they become surprise sellers: Cesar Hernandez

Potential deadline target as buyers: Cole Hamels

The Phillies’ offseason work extended well into spring training and might not be finished yet, as they still look like a good fit for one of the remaining veteran free-agent starters. Yes, that’s true even after last week’s splashy signing of former Cubs ace Jake Arrieta. The signing allowed the Phillies to jump over the threshold between sellers and buyers into what could turn out to be what Scott Boras — Arrieta’s agent — likes to call “Playoffville.” If the Phillies ended up in the seller group, it wouldn’t have made much difference, as they have virtually nothing in the way of expiring contracts to be moved. Maybe that’s as good a sign as any that the slow-burning rebuild is finally coming to fruition. Indeed, things seem to be percolating in Philadelphia.

That said, the Phillies are in position to continue to buy by selling, as evidenced by the listing of Hernandez above. Going forward, Philly can balance its roster by moving veterans as organizational prospects who emerge as big-league ready. The best example of that is infield prospect Scott Kingery, who is likely to make Hernandez a high-quality trade candidate sooner than later. If the sleeper Phillies make a run at the postseason, their system’s outfield depth could be tapped into, with Haseley being just one possibility. The rebuild is all but complete.

Tampa Bay Rays

STATUS: Buy maybe

WIN RANGE: 70 to 90

PROSPECT POINTS: 2,230.0

Potential deadline target as buyers: Nelson Cruz

Most tradable prospect: Lucius Fox

Best trade piece if they become surprise sellers: Adeiny Hechavarria

The bargain-basement Rays have been vilified for their frugal ways and associated with the motley crew of tanking teams in baseball. On paper, Tampa Bay remains a perfectly mediocre bunch that can dream of fringe wild-card contention. If that happens, it would be just the latest data point suggesting that the correlation between spending and contending isn’t as strong as you might think it is, especially if you read too much payroll-related caterwauling.

A contending Rays team would need to add thunder to a lineup that currently projects to finish with baseball’s worst slugging percentage. To do that, the Rays could tap into the organization’s deep pool of middle-infield prospects, such as Fox or Wander Franco. In case you’re wondering, that’s no typo: Fox has the same name as the smart comic book character who designs Batman’s gadgets and is played by Morgan Freeman in the Christopher Nolan trilogy.

New York Yankees

STATUS: Buy now

WIN RANGE: 84 to 104

PROSPECT POINTS: 2,212.1

Potential deadline target as buyers: Michael Fulmer

Most tradable prospect: Tyler Wade

Best trade piece if they become surprise sellers: Didi Gregorius

The Yankees are perfectly positioned for the coming season. They have a talented roster that ranks in the top five or six in all of baseball. They have a deep pool of prospects waiting in the wings. They appear to have enough wiggle room under the tax threshold to make in-season additions. If that happens, it would figure to be a veteran rotation piece that would be headed back to New York. Wade is just one of a number of quality Yankees prospects who could be dangled in such a transaction without putting much of a dent in New York’s overall prospect ranking.

Los Angeles Angels

STATUS: Buy probably

WIN RANGE: 75 to 95

PROSPECT POINTS: 1,716.0

Potential deadline target as buyers: Michael Fulmer

Most tradable prospect: Leonardo Rivas

Best trade piece if they become surprise sellers: Martin Maldonado

The Angels’ ranking here is a bit skewed in that their prospect points are inflated by the presence of Shohei Ohtani. Although L.A.’s farm system is gradually improving, it still isn’t deep in the kind of high-ceiling types that might bring back an impact starter in July, should the Angels need one. And you figure they will. Even if Ohtani irons out his spring problems, consider this: The Angels’ top eight players in 2018 salary are all position players.

It isn’t hard to see the Angels contending for an AL wild card. But it is tough to envision that quest being bolstered by a high-profile trade candidate such as Cole Hamels or Madison Bumgarner. If an ace such as that becomes available, there will be other suitors who can outbid the Angels. That’s why, as much as any team, the Angels should save Alex Cobb from free-agent limbo.

Los Angeles Dodgers

STATUS: Buy now

WIN RANGE: 86 to 106

PROSPECT POINTS: 1,549.2

Potential deadline target as buyers: Danny Duffy

Most tradable prospect: Will Smith

Best trade piece if they become surprise sellers: Yasiel Puig

The Dodgers are knee-deep in catching prospects, with Keibert Ruiz rating ahead of Smith on most prospect lists. Like the Yankees, the Dodgers have left enough of a margin under the tax threshold to pursue pitchers during the season to bolster what feels like an inevitable sixth straight trip to the playoffs. That makes the “seller” scenario particularly far-fetched, with Puig listed mostly because he’s entering the last year of the contract he signed with the Dodgers in 2012. Barring an extension, he’ll be arbitration-eligible for the first time after the season. L.A. has plenty of prospect depth, and even if temporary payroll constraints keep the Dodgers from making too big of a splash during the season, it seems to be a good bet that they will add arms for October.

Houston Astros

STATUS: Buy now

WIN RANGE: 90 to 110

PROSPECT POINTS: 1,488.7

Potential deadline target as buyers: Brad Hand

Most tradable prospect: J.B. Bukauskas

Best trade piece if they become surprise sellers: Dallas Keuchel

No offense to Bukauskas, but the Astros could get a bigger return for top-of-the-charts prospects such as Kyle Tucker and Forrest Whitley. But it’s hard to see why that would be necessary. Houston doesn’t figure to have a need to add the level of player you’d get by dealing Tucker and/or Whitley. The most likely in-season additions for the Astros will be in the bullpen, and depending on how big the need is, Bukauskas might be a better prospect than they’d need to trade. Keuchel is entering a walk year, and if the Astros shockingly fall out of the race, he’d be a worthy rental for someone. But the Astros have such a wealth of talent and so much built-in redundancy that that scenario figures to be the longest of shots.

Minnesota Twins

STATUS: Buy probably

WIN RANGE: 73 to 93

PROSPECT POINTS: 1,426.6

Potential deadline target as buyers: Danny Duffy

Most tradable prospect: Nick Gordon

Best trade piece if they become surprise sellers: Lance Lynn

The Twins landed Lynn on a one-year deal after he languished all winter on the stalled free-agent market. Not only does Lynn’s presence give a much-needed boost to Minnesota’s rotation, but the terms of the agreement also make him all-too-tradable should the Twins fall out of the race. It’s a more protracted version of the sequence that played out last year when Minnesota traded for — and quickly flipped — Jaime Garcia. Of course, the scenario Twins fans want to see come into play is the one in which the team builds on last year’s wild-card berth and finds itself in position to add a finishing piece in July. That piece would likely be another starting pitcher. Gordon remains an exciting prospect, but after drafting Royce Lewis last summer, the Twins find themselves with excellent minor league depth in the middle infield.

Milwaukee Brewers

STATUS: Buy maybe

WIN RANGE: 72 to 92

PROSPECT POINTS: 1,323.4

Potential deadline target as buyers: Michael Fulmer

Most tradable prospect: Brett Phillips

Best trade piece if they become surprise sellers: Corey Knebel

It isn’t easy to come up with an obvious trade candidate in a Milwaukee sell scenario. There’s no reason to move anyone for money purposes, nor are there any high-profile players about to hit free agency. Back when Milwaukee was last in sell mode, the idea was to flip bullpen pieces, and with Knebel in the midst of his arbitration years, the Brewers could probably get a nice return for him. More likely, though, Knebel will anchor the bullpen for a team that hangs in wild-card contention all season.

The Brewers should get a rotation boost when Jimmy Nelson returns from his shoulder injury, hopefully with instructions to never again attempt a belly-flop dive into first base. The Brewers’ prospect depth was thinned by the trade with Miami that brought back Christian Yelich, but with center fielder Lorenzo Cain entering the first year of a five-year contract, it’s possible that Phillips could be had. However, it’s just as possible that any holes Milwaukee needs to fill can be handled from within, such as the additions of Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes to the rotation. However, if Jonathan Villar doesn’t bounce back at second base, that might again become an area of need for the stretch run.

St. Louis Cardinals

STATUS: Buy probably

WIN RANGE: 77 to 97

PROSPECT POINTS: 1,285.1

Potential deadline target as buyers: Zach Britton

Most tradable prospect: Tyler O’Neill

Best trade piece if they become surprise sellers: Marcell Ozuna

After 2018, Ozuna has one more year of arbitration before he hits free agency. That’s one reason St. Louis’ splashiest offseason acquisition could quickly turn into a trade piece if the Cardinals fall out of contention. Another is that the Cardinals have outfield prospects such as O’Neill and Harrison Bader on the way. The Cardinals have a nicely balanced roster. If they find themselves battling for the playoffs or loading up for October, St. Louis might target a bullpen hammer to complete the puzzle.

Cleveland Indians

STATUS: Buy now

PROSPECT POINTS: 1,177.7

Potential deadline target as buyers: Domingo Santana

Most tradable prospect: Shane Bieber

Best trade piece if they become surprise sellers: Andrew Miller

Miller and Cody Allen will be playing 2018 on expiring contracts. It seems unlikely that the Indians could sign both of them next winter, even if Cleveland goes on another postseason run. However, if the Indians disappoint, one or both could be among the most sought-after trade targets in July. If, as expected, Cleveland is in add mode, then moving a young starter such as Bieber makes sense because the key pieces of the Indians’ big league rotation are locked up through 2019. It isn’t difficult to imagine the Indians adding an outfield bat, as they did last season by trading for Jay Bruce.

Washington Nationals

STATUS: Buy probably

PROSPECT POINTS: 972.5

Potential deadline target as buyers: J.T. Realmuto

Most tradable prospect: Carter Kieboom

Best trade piece if they become surprise sellers: Gio Gonzalez

What do you do if you’re the Nationals and it seems clear you need to add a piece to get over the top? This is a franchise that has never won a National League pennant. Not during its 36 years in Montreal, nor during its 13 seasons in Washington, D.C. This is a city that hasn’t hosted a World Series game since Oct. 7, 1933. Wouldn’t you trade any future piece to win now, even if it’s an outfielder you love such as Victor Robles or Juan Soto? Complicating the question is Bryce Harper‘s impending free agency, the impact of which would be lessened by the presence of that pair of prospects. But wouldn’t you want to lay it all on the line during the last season you know Harper will be on hand?

There are no easy paths for the Nationals to navigate over the months to come, which will be addled with obstacles in the form of at least five other superteams populating big league baseball at the moment. But unlike some of those other elite clubs, the Nationals appear to have easily identifiable holes behind the plate and possibly at first base if Ryan Zimmerman regresses.

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Boston Red Sox

STATUS: Buy probably

PROSPECT POINTS: 632.6

Potential deadline target as buyers: Adrian Beltre

Most tradable prospect: Jay Groome

Best trade piece if they become surprise sellers: Craig Kimbrel

Boston doesn’t have the same pool of prospects that enabled Dave Dombrowski to swing deals for Kimbrel and Chris Sale. Luckily, his roster is stocked enough that he’s more likely to target depth than top-of-the-roster types. Groome, Boston’s first pick in 2016, could help fill gaps, as could third baseman Michael Chavis, who is closer to big-league-ready. Boston isn’t likely to lapse into sell mode, but if it happens, Kimbrel could become a classic walk-year rental closer for somebody.

Chicago Cubs

STATUS: Buy now

PROSPECT POINTS: 457.1

Potential deadline target as buyers: Brad Hand

Most tradable prospect: Adbert Alzolay

Best trade piece if they become surprise sellers: Ben Zobrist

I’m not sure I see any of the Cubs as a likely sell-off candidate, but Zobrist would be as good as any. He’s older. His job could be ably filled by Ian Happ. His contract is up after the 2019 season. Finally, teams have seen him have a tremendous deadline impact before, as he did for the 2015 Kansas City Royals.

In the more likely scenario that sees the Cubs adding pieces for yet another NLCS showdown with the Dodgers, expect Chicago to target bullpen help, as seems to be the case every year.

Arizona Diamondbacks

STATUS: Buy probably

PROSPECT POINTS: 455.7

Potential deadline target as buyers: Josh Harrison

Most tradable prospect: Jon Duplantier

Best trade piece if they become surprise sellers: Paul Goldschmidt

Duplantier is Arizona’s best prospect, but my aggregated rankings have him at No. 69 overall in baseball, so he’s movable. Especially for a Diamondbacks team that just traded Anthony Banda to Tampa Bay in the deal that brought back outfielder Steven Souza. The focus seems to be squarely on right now.

On paper, the Diamondbacks don’t forecast well in the middle infield, where Chris Owings, Nick Ahmed and Ketel Marte are battling for playing time. Where have you gone, Didi Gregorius and Dansby Swanson? If the Diamondbacks fade, then moving franchise cornerstone Goldschmidt has to be considered — either that or an extension that would happily keep him in a Snakes uniform for the long term. However, with Goldschmidt’s deal up after next season, a non-contending Diamondbacks team would need to be proactive with both Goldschmidt and players on expiring deals such as outfielder A.J. Pollock and starter Patrick Corbin.

New York Mets

STATUS: Buy maybe

PROSPECT POINTS: 354.6

Potential deadline target as buyers: Jose Abreu

Most tradable prospect: David Peterson

Best trade piece if they become surprise sellers: Matt Harvey

Perhaps listing Harvey here is misguided. Sure, he’s on an expiring deal. But for him to end up on the trade market, that would mean that the Mets would have fallen from contention even though he has pitched well enough to attract interest. It’s a combination that could happen but feels unlikely.

More realistically, the Mets could move a free-agent-to-be short reliever such as A.J. Ramos or Jeurys Familia. If the Mets need to add an impact piece, the system isn’t in great position to do so merely on the basis of a prospect or two. New York would need to be willing to take on some money to make that happen.

Seattle Mariners

STATUS: Buy maybe

PROSPECT POINTS: 281.8

Potential deadline target as buyers: Cole Hamels

Most tradable prospect: Kyle Lewis

Best trade piece if they become surprise sellers: Nelson Cruz

The Mariners continue to tread water. With an upside of fringe contention and a mostly barren farm system, Seattle might be the American League’s version of the Giants: a team hoping that an aging core can carry it into the postseason, even as a franchise reset looms as a distinct possibility. After suffering through an injury-riddled 2017 season, the Mariners have already seen the maladies pile up during spring training.

Still, if it all comes together, the Mariners will be tasked with upgrading their rotation in July, even if it takes Lewis or Evan White or Sam Carlson or some combination of the three. However, if Seattle’s lack of organizational depth becomes too large an obstacle to overcome, it might be time to retool.