#monty hall

[oldshowbiz]

the only book I own

[trolley-problem-memes]

[user-without-a-cool-acronym]

Hey Ninjago fandom

Reblog with your answer if you want

[paintedpineleaf]

for the uninitiated: say you're on a game show and there's three doors in front of you, behind one of which is a car, and you're asked to pick the one with the car in order to win it as a prize. once you've picked one door, the host opens one of the empty doors to show you it's empty and asks if you'd like to switch. does switching give you a higher probability of winning (1/3 if you don't switch 2/3 if you do) or does your probability of winning remain the same whether or not you switch (50 - 50)?

[contradictorypenguin]

STEM side of Tumblr, somebody please explain the Monty Hall problem to me like I'm five years old.

I get the basic idea, I think - at first there's a 1/3 chance that the car will be behind the door you chose, but after one door is eliminated, you have a 1/2 chance. But the car doesn't move! Whether you chose the correct door or not, the car isn't going anywhere. And once one door is eliminated, doesn't the door you chose ALSO have a 1/2 chance now of being correct? So why is it statistically better to switch?

Apparently they've run simulations of this problem and the results show that it's better to switch, and my brain just doesn't understand that.

Help?

[weatherwhim]

A trolley is heading towards a three-way junction, ahead of which are three tracks. There are people tied to all the tracks: two of these tracks have five (5) people each on them, while the third track only has one (1) person.

It is night, and you cannot see far enough down the tracks to tell which is which. You do not know which track has the 1 person and which tracks have the 5.

You are standing next to a lever that controls which track the trolley will go down. You have just pulled the lever to an arbitrary position.

Suddenly, a game show host shows up with a flashlight and illuminates one of the tracks you did not choose, revealing five people tied to it. Do you pull the lever again to switch the trolley to the other un-illuminated track, or stick with your previous choice?

[seanastinhopeunquenchable]

Sean Astin starred with Sarah Drew three years ago in this delightful Twilight Zone-esque short film that showed you COULD make movies while on lockdown!

[dunne-ias]

One of my low-key hobbies is listening/reading comments from people who don’t understand the Monty Hall problem.

[closertotheheart]

[totesmgoats01-published-author]

Much like the Monty Hall Problem I've decided to deny The Golden Ratio.

It isn't real.

[oldshowbiz]

[thelonebookman]

I think, if you are feeling particularly cruel towards your DnD players, or you are needing to stretch for time: create a Monty Hall problem in your dungeon.

[stone-cold-groove]

WWL-TV Channel 4 - New Orleans.

[wahwealth]

Split Second was revived in the early 80s with Monty Hall as the host. Click here to enjoy.

[jughead-is-canonically-aroace]

a car cant buy many goats if you cant afford to pay all the fees associated with accepting it as a prize and also the contract states you cant sell it for a year

i mean the thing is youre not actually betting on if you won the first game. youre just playing a game with a 50/50 chance of a goat. the previous game has no actual tangible impact on the latter game. it is just a 50/50 chance. you have just as much of a 50% chance of picking the goat as you do picking the car

Nothing makes me want to call math fake as much as the Monty Hall problem. Not even 0.999999... equaling 1. Yes I understand the proof yes it technically makes sense but I just hate the Monty Hall problem so, so much.