#monty hall

[oldshowbiz]

the only book I own

[trolley-problem-memes]

[paintedpineleaf]

for the uninitiated: say you're on a game show and there's three doors in front of you, behind one of which is a car, and you're asked to pick the one with the car in order to win it as a prize. once you've picked one door, the host opens one of the empty doors to show you it's empty and asks if you'd like to switch. does switching give you a higher probability of winning (1/3 if you don't switch 2/3 if you do) or does your probability of winning remain the same whether or not you switch (50 - 50)?

[contradictorypenguin]

STEM side of Tumblr, somebody please explain the Monty Hall problem to me like I'm five years old.

I get the basic idea, I think - at first there's a 1/3 chance that the car will be behind the door you chose, but after one door is eliminated, you have a 1/2 chance. But the car doesn't move! Whether you chose the correct door or not, the car isn't going anywhere. And once one door is eliminated, doesn't the door you chose ALSO have a 1/2 chance now of being correct? So why is it statistically better to switch?

Apparently they've run simulations of this problem and the results show that it's better to switch, and my brain just doesn't understand that.

Help?

[capybaraonabicycle]

Let's play the Monty Hall Problem!

You've chosen the second door! I am now opening the first door for you, showing you that there is a goat behind:

[ID: ms paint picture of three simple, blue doors with yellow numbers, 1, 2, 3 from left to right. The left door, number 1, is open and revealing a goat. There is a red arrow pointing at the chosen door number 2. end ID]

Now you will choose your final door! You will win whatever is behind the door that you have chosen during this round. You can stick to your gut decision, or you can switch to either of the other doors.

Just so we're clear: If you switch to door 1, you will definitely win the goat and not win the car. If you stick with door 2 or switch to door 3 there is a certain chance in both cases that you will win the car or that you will win another goat.

Choose wisely!

Reblog for good luck 🍀

[weatherwhim]

A trolley is heading towards a three-way junction, ahead of which are three tracks. There are people tied to all the tracks: two of these tracks have five (5) people each on them, while the third track only has one (1) person.

It is night, and you cannot see far enough down the tracks to tell which is which. You do not know which track has the 1 person and which tracks have the 5.

You are standing next to a lever that controls which track the trolley will go down. You have just pulled the lever to an arbitrary position.

Suddenly, a game show host shows up with a flashlight and illuminates one of the tracks you did not choose, revealing five people tied to it. Do you pull the lever again to switch the trolley to the other un-illuminated track, or stick with your previous choice?

[seanastinhopeunquenchable]

Sean Astin starred with Sarah Drew three years ago in this delightful Twilight Zone-esque short film that showed you COULD make movies while on lockdown!

[dunne-ias]

One of my low-key hobbies is listening/reading comments from people who don’t understand the Monty Hall problem.

[jenny-dreadful]

my explanation of the Monty Hall Problem

(“Let’s Make a Deal” was a game show hosted by Monty Hall, which featured a sort of prize puzzle where a contestant was allowed to choose between 3 closed doors, one of which hid a new car and two of which hid goats. After the contestant made their choice, Monty would dramatically open the first wrong door, revealing a goat, and give the contestant One Last Chance to change their mind before revealing whether they’d picked right. Despite all doors being equally likely at game setup, statisticians LOVE to say that you should always switch your pick, that your chances are somehow better than 33% if you do—and as arbitrary and superstitious as that seems, it’s actually completely true and mathematically-sound. Famously, it’s really, REALLY unintuitive and difficult to understand why, even when it’s explained. Let’s see if this helps.)

each has a 1 out of 3 chance of being the “RIGHT” door:

you make your initial pick. “door you chose” has a 1 in 3 chance of being “RIGHT,” and there’s a 2 in 3 chance that “doors you didn’t choose” has the “RIGHT” door:

now, a door from “doors you didn’t choose” is revealed to be a “WRONG” door. that door now has a 0 in 3 chance of being the “RIGHT” door, but overall, “doors you didn’t choose” holds steady with its 2 in 3 chance of rightness:

at this point, only a single door remains in “doors you didn’t choose,”meaning the entire ‘2 in 3 chance’ previously shared by two doors now belongs only to: the remaining mystery door in “doors you didn’t choose”!:

At this point, you choose whether to switch. But YOUR DOOR has the same 1/3 chance of being right that all doors had when we started, while THE OTHER DOOR now carries a 2/3 chance.

it’s still possible to lose, but that’s why you should always SWITCH your choice—chance is skewed away from the door you picked first, no matter what you picked

[closertotheheart]

[oldshowbiz]

[totesmgoats01-published-author]

Much like the Monty Hall Problem I've decided to deny The Golden Ratio.

It isn't real.

[thelonebookman]

I think, if you are feeling particularly cruel towards your DnD players, or you are needing to stretch for time: create a Monty Hall problem in your dungeon.

[wahwealth]

Split Second was revived in the early 80s with Monty Hall as the host. Click here to enjoy.

[workingclassbutch]

my wife introduced our toddler to the monty hall problem and now she's obsessed. she keeps asking to play it over and over