#max drawdown in excel

[andywltd]

http://andywltd.com/blog/how-to-calculate-maximum-drawdown/

How to Calculate Maximum Drawdown

Maximum drawdown refers to a significant trading measure of a maximum equity loss you’ve incurred in your portfolio. It’s a statistic that can be determined in backtesting and live trading. During backtesting, maximum drawdown reflects the downside risk of your trading strategy while in live trading it helps you identify instances when your strategy might be malfunctioning.

The value of a maximum drawdown (MDD) is expressed in percent and reflects the highest equity loss between peaks. To determine the MDD, you need to calculate your running percent profit and total loss and then utilize the Excel MIN function to find out the maximum drawdown, which refers to the lowest number.

for more info visit here -https://www.andywltd.com/blog/how-to-calculate-maximum-drawdown/

[signal2forexx]

How to Create a Trading Plan

MUST HAVE A TRADING PLAN

In anything we set out to do, if we intend on it having a shot at success, don’t we plan ahead? Some type of plan? Trading is of course not different. Markets are too dynamic, full of too much uncertainty, to try and navigate them without a solid framework in place. A plan is imperative if you are to achieve consistent trading results. They are also excellent at helping you identify your strengths and weaknesses so you can gravitate towards doing more of what works and further away from what doesn’t.

RISK MANAGEMENT

As I stress in all my webinars, proper risk management is one of, if not the most critical aspects to successful trading. Trading psychology for the discretionary trader runs with risk management in importance. Without good risk management the rest of the trading plan will not won’t matter, regardless of how good it may be. This is the very first thing you need to get straight in your plan.

You need to know your risk tolerance and adopt a risk management strategy which fits you. Know how much risk-per-trade you will take and total account risk across several positions. What is the max number of positions you will hold at once? (Fewer are easier to manage.)

Have a max drawdown figure in place as a ‘kill switch’ when things aren’t going well. For example, if you experience a drawdown of 10% you will either take a break or at least reduce your trading size. Remember, job #1 as a trader is capital preservation. (For more details, check out this session on risk management.)

Read more How to Create a Trading Plan

[bitcofun]

When buying monetary markets, individuals typically ignore the possibility that, over a time period, the financial investment might lose its worth, and it will take some time to recuperate short-lived losses. The much deeper the loss ends up being, the more energy needed to recuperate the losses increases out of percentage. If I invest $100 and lose 10%, I wind up with $90(whether I keep the financial investment or liquidate it). To get back to $100, which returns do I have to make? I need to make 11% due to the fact that, with a base of $90, if I make 10%, I wind up with $99 This result is enhanced if I lose 20%-- to return from $80 to $100, I will need to make 25%. So, the losses are not precisely in proportion to the gains you should make to recuperate them. If I discover myself having actually lost 50% of my financial investment, to return to $100 from $50, I should double it, so it ought to be user-friendly to the reader that the more the loss is magnified, the more energy needed to recuperate. The problem is that Bitcoin ( BTC) has actually lost more than 90% of its worth on one event, more than 80% on 2 other celebrations, striking throughout this duration an efficiency portion of -75%. The excellent news is that it has actually constantly recuperated (at least so far) from losses in an extremely sensible timeframe-- even the heaviest losses. Related: Forecasting Bitcoin cost utilizing quantitative designs, Part 2 The Ulcer Index, i.e., the index produced by Peter Martin that computes the length of time a possession has actually been listed below the previous high, is clear. Purchasing Bitcoin results in ulcers for numerous months, however then results in amazing returns that, if one has the perseverance to await them, make one forget the duration of bellyaches from the losses sustained. Compared to the previous 2 charts, which cover a duration of 50 years while this one just covers 12 years, the existence of the loss location is primary, although, in truth, Bitcoin has actually constantly attained exceptionally high returns that have actually permitted it to recuperate as much as 900% in less than 2 years. Returning to the subject of this post, here are some more methodological notes: The digital property under factor to consider is Bitcoin;-LRB- The contrast currency utilized is the U.S. dollar;-LRB- The frequency of analysis is daily; and The duration is from July 23, 2010, till June 16, 2022, the day the analysis was performed. Although Bitcoin's history is really current, its volatility and speed of recuperating losses is impressive, a sign that this possession has qualities all its own to be checked out and comprehended to the max prior to potentially choosing to include it within a varied portfolio. As you can see from the length of the above table, there have actually been numerous durations of loss and healing in excess of 20%, albeit in just 12 years of history. It is a commonly held viewpoint that a person year in crypto represents 5 in conventional markets. That is because, typically, volatility, drawdowns and come down speed are 5 times exceptional to stocks. Based upon this presumption, while understanding that the duration under factor to consider is brief, we can attempt to compare it to the 50- year analysis of the marketplaces. As can be seen, the days it requires to have a 40% or higher loss typically number less than 3 months. The darker dot is the existing drawdown suffered by Bitcoin because the November highs, or about 220 days up until now, making it in line with the regression line that figures out (to streamline) a typical worth of the relationship in between losses and the time to arrive. While a possession having brief periods in getting to the low point suggests that it has a lot of volatility, it likewise implies that it can recuperating. Otherwise, it would not have actually recuperated from that low and, certainly, there would not even be a bottom from which to increase. Instead, wise

financiers who were at first suspicious of Bitcoin up until it showed to increase once again in the COVID-19 start duration (that is, March-April 2020) understood that this possession has distinct and intriguing qualities, not the least of which is its capability to recuperate from the lows. This suggests not just that there is a market, however that there is a market that thinks about (albeit still with imperfect designs) that Bitcoin has a reasonable worth rate therefore, at specific worths, it is a deal to purchase. Understanding, for that reason, the strength of the healings that Bitcoin has actually had the ability to make can provide us a price quote regarding the length of time it might take it to recuperate to brand-new highs-- not to misguide ourselves into believing that it can do so in a couple of months (although, on a couple of celebrations, it has actually shocked everybody), however to provide us the comfort to wait if currently invested, or to comprehend the chance ahead if, up until now, we have actually been reluctant towards investing. From the chart above, a regression can be drawn out that discusses Bitcoin's relationship to the time it required to recuperate a brand-new high from the relative low. To provide an example, presuming and not approving that Bitcoin has actually struck lows of about $17,000, the healing it requires to make to return to the highs is 227%. The following the formula can be obtained from the regression line explained in the chart: Where G is the predicted days to recuperate the loss and P is the healing portion needed, it can be presumed that it takes 214 days from the low of a week ago to return to a brand-new high. Of course, presuming that the low has actually currently been struck is a stretch as nobody can really understand. It can be presumed that it is would be really not likely to see the brand-new highs once again prior to January 2023, so individuals can put their hearts at rest if they have actually invested and are suffering the loss, while maybe those who have actually not yet invested can understand that they have a really fascinating chance in front of them to think about, and rapidly. Related: Forecasting Bitcoin rate utilizing quantitative designs, Part 3 I recognize that these declarations are strong. They are not indicated to be a projection, however just an analysis of the marketplace and its structure, attempting to provide as much info as possible to the financier. Undoubtedly, it is required to presume that the even worse the loss gets, the longer I will need to want to wait to recuperate it, as can be seen from the chart listed below, which is the derivative of the regression in the chart above (healing times based upon loss) associated to losses sustained. Some factors to consider: The analysis reported here represents a quote based upon historic information; there is no warranty that the marketplace will recuperate within or around the approximated worths. There is no presumption that would develop the existing loss as a duration low. Not offering does not suggest that the loss is not genuine; the loss is such even if the hidden property is not offered. It is not recognized however it is still genuine, and the marketplace will need to make the healing representing the chart at the start of this analysis to recuperate the preliminary worth. Unlike the 2 property classes equities and bonds, when it comes to Bitcoin at this moment of loss, going out represents more of a danger than a chance, since Bitcoin has actually revealed that it can recuperate much faster than those other 2 possession classes. It would have been needed to leave earlier, as we made with the alternative Digital Asset Fund, which is losing less than 20% YTD and hence will require a ludicrous 25% to return to brand-new highs for the year, compared to the 227% required by Bitcoin to climb up back up, proof that utilizing trend-following reasoning decreases volatility and healing time. To

repeat, nevertheless, the distinction in between Bitcoin and the other 2 property classes (equities and bonds), I have actually compared the 3 on this chart of relationship in between loss and healing time: It is clear from this chart that Bitcoin has an outstanding healing particular compared to equities and bonds, so having a portion, even a little portion, of Bitcoin in a portfolio can accelerate the healing time of the whole portfolio. This is most likely the very best factor to have a portion of digital possessions in a portfolio, ideally through an actively handled quantitative fund, naturally, however you currently understand this given that I remain in dispute of interest. This short article does not include financial investment recommendations or suggestions. Every financial investment and trading relocation includes danger, and readers ought to perform their own research study when deciding. The views, ideas and viewpoints revealed here are the author's alone and do not always show or represent the views and viewpoints of Cointelegraph. Daniele Bernardi is a serial business owner continuously looking for development. He is the creator of Diaman, a group committed to the advancement of lucrative financial investment techniques that just recently effectively released the PHI Token, a digital currency with the objective of combining conventional financing with crypto properties. Bernardi's work is oriented towards mathematical designs advancement which streamlines financiers' and household workplaces' decision-making procedures for danger decrease. Bernardi is likewise the chairman of financiers' publication Italia SRL and Diaman Tech SRL and is the CEO of possession management company Diaman Partners. In addition, he is the supervisor of a crypto hedge fund. He is the author of The Genesis of Crypto Assets, a book about crypto possessions. He was acknowledged as an "creator" by the European Patent Office for his European and Russian patent associated to the mobile payments field. Read More

[karingudino]

Agroforestry may be just what Maine needs for agricultural growth

Agroforestry, an age-old idea, may present a path to Maine’s future.

A part of the regenerative agriculture motion, it includes an built-in method to cultivating bushes with crops and, typically, livestock. These diversified farm programs nourish soil well being and wildlife whereas providing more resilience in a warming world — locking up atmospheric carbon, absorbing floodwaters, and sheltering crops and animals from excessive winds and excessive warmth.

“Variety is admittedly key to sustainability for small farms and the ecology of farms,” stated vegetable farmer Max Boudreau of Winslow Farm in Falmouth. He sees many landowners and homesteaders “placing these rules into follow,” however stated agroforestry remains to be “a international idea” in farm service businesses.

Being interdisciplinary, agroforestry challenges the siloed world of pure useful resource administration. It’s routinely ignored in faculty curricula and by technical service suppliers, stated Meghan Giroux, an agroforestry researcher, technical service supplier and practitioner in Vermont. Her nonprofit, Interlace Commons, seeks to fill that void by coaching farmers – together with Boudreau – find out how to implement and preserve agroforestry practices.

Boudreau was one of many 20 farmers chosen amongst 92 candidates from across the Northeast for a free, agroforestry “area consultancy” this yr. Farmers are desirous to find out about agroforestry’s potential to diversify revenue, and there’s rising client demand for its merchandise – from nuts and unusual fruits (like honeyberry and paw paw) to mushrooms and medicinal herbs.

But policymakers routinely inform Giroux there’s “no real interest in agroforestry,” she says. “There’s no institutional will to maneuver these practices ahead primarily as a result of individuals don’t perceive them.”

The U.S. Division of Agriculture has supported agroforestry since the 1990 Farm Bill and does distinctive analysis, Giroux feels, however “a knowledge-exchange subject” prevents steering from reaching most landowners. A community of skilled farmers may assist help and practice friends – a course of that occurs informally, Boudreau says, within the permaculture community, a associated landscape design method modeled after pure programs.

Analysis has already demonstrated that no-till agriculture improves crop yields, reduces prices and improves soil well being. Much more financial and environmental advantages may circulation from cultivating crops in a layered, built-in mixture of annuals and perennials extra harking back to pure plant communities.

A superb match for Maine

A number of the extra artistic agroforestry approaches contain alley cropping (interspersing annual and perennial vegetation), forest farming, the place doubtlessly profitable shade crops are grown in woodland settings, and silvopasture, which contains bushes with pasture and forage.

Silvopasture holds essentially the most profit amongst all agricultural options for lowering atmospheric carbon, in accordance withProject Drawdown, a analysis nonprofit. That may very well be excellent news for the nation’s most forested state. “We all know bushes develop very well right here in Maine,” statedJesse Stevens, who runs a nursery and orchard in western Maine specializing in edible woody vegetation. Agroforestry may speed up the state’s efforts to satisfy itsambitious climate goals.

A lot of the analysis on silvopasture techniques within the Northeast has taken place atCornell University’s Small Farms program, assessing the consequences of including bushes to pasture areas or rotational grazing of livestock or poultry in woodland settings.

A scientific method and commitment to conservation is crucial, stated Kate MacFarland, one in every of simply two agroforesters on theUSDA National Agroforestry Center, noting it may be “difficult in case you go it alone,” as a result of cattle candamage woodland ecosystems if not moved often.

In agroforestry trainings, usually performed with businesses comparable to soil and water conservation districts, Pure Useful resource Conservation Service or Cooperative Extension, MacFarland works to get “farmers concerned from the start,” sometimes having “these conversations on farms and within the woods,” the place individuals can see agroforestry practices at work.

To this point, agroforestry has been pushed largely by researchers, stated David Fuller, College of Maine Cooperative Extension skilled targeted on agriculture and non-timber forest merchandise. “The push wants to come back from landowners however they must be educated in regards to the potential.”

It might assist to have extra coordination amongst these already doing agroforestry, Boudreau stated. Maine may set up a northeastern equal of the Appalachian Beginning Forest Farmer Coalition, a community of landowners, researchers and representatives of each governmental businesses and nongovernmental organizations working to extend agroforestry manufacturing and construct the talents of practitioners.

The Appalachian Coalition has introduced in significant federal funding to assist farmers in that economically challenged area develop native understory vegetation likeedible ramps and medicinal herbs (comparable to ginseng, goldenseal and black cohosh). Cultivated,third-party verified forest herbs can command excessive costs from nutraceutical firms involved with moral product sourcing whereas serving to cut back harvesting strain on wild vegetation.

An agroforestry hub in Maine may collect consultants and practitioners to find out what combos of plant communities may work greatest right here and what gear could be wanted. It may create an indication web site and doubtlessly even revive a sponsored state nursery, which Maine had for decades.

The coalition may additionally develop coaching to landowners and the businesses that help farmers. Ideally, Maine would fund an agroforestry extension agent to help the community, present coaching, area questions from practitioners and educate customers about makes use of of agroforestry crops.

The Maine Farmer Resource Network, established to help starting farmers, has supplied the state with vital returns. The variety of farmers underneath age 34more than doubled between 2012 and 2017. Now Maine must make an identical dedication to getting current and new farmers engaged in agroforestry.

Happily, Maine’s new Climate Action Plan instantly addresses this want, advocating “extra broadly out there” technical help to assist farmers undertake agricultural practices that may retailer carbon and enhance local weather resilience. The plan additionally recommends monetary incentives to assist farmers undertake extra climate-friendly agricultural practices (with silvopasture arguably the friendliest of all).

Incentives may assist inspire landowners, given the lengthy time-frame agroforestry calls for. It could actually take 10 years to see the outcomes of an put in meals forest, stated Jack Kertesz, who based the Maine Tree Crop Alliance in 1983 and works as panorama coordinator forMaine Organic Farmers and Gardeners Alliance.

A strategic method to agroforestry would doubtless supply Maine a excessive return on funding – boosting farm productiveness whereas bettering soil well being, water high quality, biodiversity, flood resilience and saved carbon.

Management is vital, Kertesz stated: “It would take imaginative and prescient to drag this off. I’m undecided we’ve seen boldness right here a lot.” But he nonetheless finds trigger for optimism: “Who would have guessed (many years in the past) that natural farms would have succeeded?”

The Maine Monitor is revealed by The Maine Middle for Public Curiosity Reporting, a nonpartisan, nonprofit civic information group based mostly in Augusta. The group’s public-facing web site is www.themainemonitor.org.

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source https://fikiss.net/agroforestry-may-be-just-what-maine-needs-for-agricultural-growth/ Agroforestry may be just what Maine needs for agricultural growth published first on https://fikiss.net/ from Karin Gudino https://karingudino.blogspot.com/2021/02/agroforestry-may-be-just-what-maine.html

[jeffreyzqmj347]

How to Outsmart Your Boss on Roger Scott's Wealthpress

timetable It is really possible to uncover aid.To summarize, Forex Kagi is meant to guide you to create trades on most forex pairs. Really, Forex Kagi has unending prospects. Though making use of System you can easily trade bonds, shares, a number of currencies together with commodities.Forex Kagi lowers the noise of ineffective, lousy indicators that usually confuse traders. The appliance is simple to navigate but has refined features that Wealthpress may assist any Trader come to be a lot more worthwhile every single day.Christopher is executing an excellent task of making the particular process easy and use and also to breakdown the complicated math's powering the Kagi charts to have the ability to be used by pretty much any individual to acquire and market profitably.

™

What's the Aberration investing method? It's really a mechanical investing system produced by Keith Fitschen in 1986 to trade a basket of commodities. The trading program profitably trades the 8 distinct commodity groups: the grains, softs, meats, petroleum goods, metals, currencies, financials and stock indices.

The Aberration trading system was commercially unveiled in 1993 by Keith Fitschen. The investing system has actually been rated as one of the best trading programs within the day it absolutely was released, and it remains to be commonly employed. Futures Truth of the matter has named it, "Among the list of Top 10 Investing Devices of All Time" 4 unique periods. This very rated buying and selling process has long been really rewarding for over 20 yrs.

The Aberration investing system ordinarily trades Each and every commodity 3 or 4 situations in a very span of twelve months. It retains a position within the markets most of the time, about 60 p.c time in the 12 months in Just about every marketplace. This more time-phrase trading method leads to greater earnings in Every single trade and is meant to capture the major trending moves.

The Aberration buying and selling system compensates for losses by investing a basket of uncorrelated markets. If just one team suffers a reduction, Yet another team may well offset the decline having a profit. Above the training course of one year, there are actually normally commodities that produce a significant financial gain. These big earnings get over the modest losses of one other non-trending commodities. The general performance of the process about a basket of commodities may be very easily calculated Together with the user-pleasant program furnished Using the fully disclosed method.

The Aberration technique tries to seize the sweeping trends of each commodity. It really works throughout all the commodity groups, but it really works finest Along with the groups that are inclined to development by far the most: commodities such as currencies, financials, energies, and metals.

The Aberration technique is suited to a variety of account measurements through the use of portfolios. The portfolios were being produced throughout the different teams by taking the lessen risk commodities in Every team and including added commodities inside the team for the following greater measurements portfolio. Performance is measured by building fairness curves and analyzing return and chance metrics for example earnings per annum and max drawdown annually.

The Aberration tactic is fully disclosed to traders who acquire the solution. Realizing The premise driving a method assists a trader to stay with the investing when drawdown takes place. The method is implemented in user-pleasant program that permits a consumer to generate daily signals, back again-exam historic overall performance on personal commodities, and back-take a look at the historic overall performance of the various portfolios.

[florianbelfort]

Journée closed 1.01% Drawdown 1.5% MAX EXCELLENT BUSINESS POUR FAIRE TRAVAILLER TON ARGENT 💴 PLAN AFFILIATE 15 NIVEAUX PARTAGE DE PROFIT EXCLUSIVITÉ 👌🚀 https://www.instagram.com/p/B9hqInygqRO/?igshid=1rl5qx37tzo8l

[heatherrdavis1]

The Upcoming Stock Market Collapse Of 2020 | Will This Affect Bitcoin?? [The Sell in May Agenda]

VIDEO TRANSCRIPT

All right. Welcome back, everybody. My name is Austin with almost less than 11 days till Bitcoin’s third having ever Bitcoin. The price of Bitcoin is having a hell of a week. Let’s just check out the last seven days. Bitcoin started the week at around seven thousand five hundred. We topped out a few days ago at nine thousand four hundred. And right now we’re levelling off at around eight thousand seven hundred. That’s huge. Now, if that’s what Bitcoin could do with 20 days to go to the having, just think about what Bitcoin could do with less than 10. And for every reason that I listed a few days ago in my Bitcoin having 2020 supply shock video, this is a huge reminder of what makes Bitcoin valuable long term. But as a smart investor, as an investor that looks at global macroeconomic trends. I want you to be prepared for Bitcoin to crash. And for Bitcoin to potentially crash hard. Now, I’m not a financial adviser. I can’t see the future, but I’m going to show you my reasoning. And to be clear, when I say crash hard, I don’t mean down to one K or two K. I mean, it’s not out of the question for us to see a 20, 25, 30 percent drawdown in the short term. I’m talking about something similar to what we saw a few months ago. It���s not out of the question. And all I’m saying is be ready to hotel. There’s a lot of new bitcoins in the space today. Be ready for the hotel. We could potentially see major volatility in the short term. And this is the reason why this is traditional stocks. The stock market in the month of April, we saw a hell of a good month for the stock market. In fact, the stock market closed out last month with their best monthly gains since 1987. Since the original Robocop came out in theatres, that’s the last time we had this good a month in traditional markets. Now, that’s a very odd thing to say, because right now we will or 30 million people in the United States unemployed. They’re not working. Also, by no fault of anybodys but this silent killer. But America’s food supply chain is broken right now, meaning there’s no demand. There are enormous amounts of food, enormous supply, but there’s no demand. And I’m very aware that America, other countries around the world are starting to open themselves up again. America as early as May 1st. So today. But it’s a fool’s hope, I believe, to think that these jobs will instantly come back. I mean, all of them. I mean, seeing the demand we saw for employment that we saw three months ago, our road to recovery, in my opinion, will happen. But it will take time. It’ll take time. But looking at this month, looking at today with the best April for the Dow and the S&P 500 that we’ve seen, this says 82 years, I think it should say, since the 80s. But we’ve seen at least since 1987 is the sell in May. Strategy a smart strategy in this pandemic era. And actually, the saying sell in May go away is already. It’s actually one of the most well-known maxims in the investing world. Now, the question is, will this hold true this time as investors face or on the most significant public health crises in history? The reason that investors expect the markets to take a decline in May is that the Wall Street adage actually refers specifically to the six months on, six months off a seasonal pattern that people typically see in markets because on average, markets tend to underperform from May through the end of October and then around the Christmas season through January February. They pump May has traditionally been that start of the downturn. Now, to be fair, the downturn actually started this year around the end of February, March, and it was huge. But this was our April, one of the best April’s ever. So taking into account everything with governments opening up their countries again, with America opening up. If the jobs aren’t there if the consumer demand isn’t there and I’m talking about isn’t to what it previously was, what we knew the markets to be, how will the next few months look? We’re the best April that we’ve seen since 1987. Nobody can see the future. And to be fair, this is new. We’ve never seen. When we proactively shut down a country and then proactively ask everybody to go back to work, we’ve never seen that. But if the stock market crashes, expect Bitcoin to crash. Expect Bitcoin to at least dip. And you may be screaming at your screen right now. Austin, they’re uncorrelated. Traditional markets are down 11 percent year to date. Bitcoin is up to five percent. It’s because of having. It’s because of Bitcoin strong fundamentals. Expect Bitcoin to pump, not dump. Well, I’m just speaking in the short term. Just look at this. Let me prove it to you. The crash started the first low crash of the S&P start around February 20th, lasted until about February 20th. What a bitcoin do in this time period. This is Bitcoin year to date. This was around, in fact, a lookup top. Don’t look, Mihiro, look up top. This was around February 20th, right here. Stocks started. Crash Bitcoin held out for one to a few days, and in February, the twenty-eighth Bitcoin followed. That was the first little crash. The second crash started around March 4th. Let’s just go to the 1st and March 4th to March 9th. What a bitcoin do. March 4th to March 9th here. March 4th. Look up top right here. March 4th. We held out for a couple of days. And then by March 9th, right here, we crashed. And then the third example, pretty much the last big crash started around March 10th. March 10th to March. Twenty third. What a bitcoin do. March 10th to March. Twenty third. Well, it started right here this time. Start right here. Look up top. We lasted for about a day and then obviously we crashed and we crashed hard. Now Bitcoin was one of the first to recover, much like gold as a potential hedge against the stock market. We recovered first, but a lesson was learned. When traditional markets go down, they pull down everything with them. Now, I do have major news involving the Alte coin yose, the old coin, stellar lumens, the old coin ex Arpey. So stick around to the entire video, but let me know what you think about this. I guess my point is just Hodel. Nobody knows the future. And actually when I made two bullish videos, the bitcoin having twenty explaining what the significance of what the bitcoin having means in bitcoin price pumping. Many, many people are asking, OK, Austin. Well, well then do I buy Bitcoin before having or do I buy it after the having since nobody knows the future? Me personally, I like to dollar cost average the whole way, but I’ll never tell you what you should do. You make your own decisions. But the first piece of news before we get to steller iOS IO will process intercompany transactions for clients of Grant Thornton, a major accounting firm with one point nine billion dollars in annual revenue. So this is being processed by iOS, not a theorem, not Tron. This huge corporation with one point nine billion in annual revenue chose iOS major. U.S. accounting firm Grant Thornton is moving all of its client’s intercompany transactions to the iOS IO network. Basically, they manage money for intercompany transactions and now they’re doing it on the iOS IO blockchain. But why did they choose iOS? A company representative told Quinn Telegraph that Grant Thornton had chosen iOS Io for its speed, user experience and scalability. Good for Yose. Next piece of news before REPL. Before Stellar Big Macs. Their Derivatives Future Exchange has lost approximately 50 percent of its market share over the last six months. So this is a chart of shares of open interest of Bitcoin futures per platform and at one point, Bemax. Some people call it shit. Max was the only game in town, right? Multiple years ago. Now, there are many other options if you want to trade Bitcoin futures. So what are the people choosing? Well, you can see starting up here, backed bid Phoenix and crack in are the three futures platforms that people are using, least the three platforms that people are using. Most are OK, ex-Big Macs still and Holby and then CMG, of course, finance and finance and by bit are creeping up. But moving on. Next piece of news. Stellar lumens, stellar Excel m transactions will now all be monitored by elliptical so they will no longer be private. Not that excellent was a privacy coin, but it’s not that they won’t be private. It’s now they will specifically be watching every transaction your transaction. Now, why is this? A transaction monitoring system aims to boost compliance and identify risks like money laundering, terrorist financing and other illicit activities. So this is steller, trying to comply with things that regulators care about, like terrorist financing, which I can definitely get behind. But the downside is the move sacrifices privacy. Yet it could be attractive to institutional investors. So this is a double-edged sword. Just something you should know, I guess, elliptical. A lot of bitcoins don’t really like elliptical because I mean elliptic. So Elliptic. Sorry, Elliptic. Glyptic Elliptic is backed by Wells Fargo Elliptic. We’ll be watching you. A little green flag for ripples, SRP, Ripple’s x Arpey sales fall to one point seven five million. This is how much the company is selling onto the market as OTL OnDemand liquidity network volume triples. So let’s find out what this means. All of this data is from their quarterly report, Q1 2020 X Arpey Markets Report. So check this out. The dollar value transacted using Odel. So people actually using X Arpey increased by more than two hundred and ninety-four percent, which is good news for Tolkan holders. Not that that means the price will go up, but it’s good news with the report describing X Arpey liquidity as the lifeblood of rebels Odille for cross-border payments. Now, in my opinion, we’ve seen so many quarters or Ripple’s volume was stagnant. Eventually, it did have to go up and this was a good quarter for a rebel. And further good news, Rebel has again reduced the total X Arpey sales that the company sells from thirteen points oh eight million in Q4 of 2019 to just thirteen to one point seventy-five million in Q1 2020. So they sold away less last quarter. The company has been criticized for propping up its balance sheet with x ERP sales. And the reason that they say that they sold is the report also notes that the token was integrated into a number of additional exchanges and liquidity instruments. So what they always say, but somebody needed liquidity and they sold X Arpey to them. All right. That’s the video Imes Austin. See you tomorrow.

Via https://www.cryptosharks.net/upcoming-stock-market-collapse-of-2020/

source https://cryptosharks.weebly.com/blog/the-upcoming-stock-market-collapse-of-2020-will-this-affect-bitcoin-the-sell-in-may-agenda

[scottmapess]

The Upcoming Stock Market Collapse Of 2020 | Will This Affect Bitcoin?? [The “Sell in May” Agenda]

VIDEO TRANSCRIPT

All right. Welcome back, everybody. My name is Austin with almost less than 11 days till Bitcoin’s third having ever Bitcoin. The price of Bitcoin is having a hell of a week. Let’s just check out the last seven days. Bitcoin started the week at around seven thousand five hundred. We topped out a few days ago at nine thousand four hundred. And right now we’re levelling off at around eight thousand seven hundred. That’s huge. Now, if that’s what Bitcoin could do with 20 days to go to the having, just think about what Bitcoin could do with less than 10. And for every reason that I listed a few days ago in my Bitcoin having 2020 supply shock video, this is a huge reminder of what makes Bitcoin valuable long term. But as a smart investor, as an investor that looks at global macroeconomic trends. I want you to be prepared for Bitcoin to crash. And for Bitcoin to potentially crash hard. Now, I’m not a financial adviser. I can’t see the future, but I’m going to show you my reasoning. And to be clear, when I say crash hard, I don’t mean down to one K or two K. I mean, it’s not out of the question for us to see a 20, 25, 30 percent drawdown in the short term. I’m talking about something similar to what we saw a few months ago. It’s not out of the question. And all I’m saying is be ready to hotel. There’s a lot of new bitcoins in the space today. Be ready for the hotel. We could potentially see major volatility in the short term. And this is the reason why this is traditional stocks. The stock market in the month of April, we saw a hell of a good month for the stock market. In fact, the stock market closed out last month with their best monthly gains since 1987. Since the original Robocop came out in theatres, that’s the last time we had this good a month in traditional markets. Now, that’s a very odd thing to say, because right now we will or 30 million people in the United States unemployed. They’re not working. Also, by no fault of anybodys but this silent killer. But America’s food supply chain is broken right now, meaning there’s no demand. There are enormous amounts of food, enormous supply, but there’s no demand. And I’m very aware that America, other countries around the world are starting to open themselves up again. America as early as May 1st. So today. But it’s a fool’s hope, I believe, to think that these jobs will instantly come back. I mean, all of them. I mean, seeing the demand we saw for employment that we saw three months ago, our road to recovery, in my opinion, will happen. But it will take time. It’ll take time. But looking at this month, looking at today with the best April for the Dow and the S&P 500 that we’ve seen, this says 82 years, I think it should say, since the 80s. But we’ve seen at least since 1987 is the sell in May. Strategy a smart strategy in this pandemic era. And actually, the saying sell in May go away is already. It’s actually one of the most well-known maxims in the investing world. Now, the question is, will this hold true this time as investors face or on the most significant public health crises in history? The reason that investors expect the markets to take a decline in May is that the Wall Street adage actually refers specifically to the six months on, six months off a seasonal pattern that people typically see in markets because on average, markets tend to underperform from May through the end of October and then around the Christmas season through January February. They pump May has traditionally been that start of the downturn. Now, to be fair, the downturn actually started this year around the end of February, March, and it was huge. But this was our April, one of the best April’s ever. So taking into account everything with governments opening up their countries again, with America opening up. If the jobs aren’t there if the consumer demand isn’t there and I’m talking about isn’t to what it previously was, what we knew the markets to be, how will the next few months look? We’re the best April that we’ve seen since 1987. Nobody can see the future. And to be fair, this is new. We’ve never seen. When we proactively shut down a country and then proactively ask everybody to go back to work, we’ve never seen that. But if the stock market crashes, expect Bitcoin to crash. Expect Bitcoin to at least dip. And you may be screaming at your screen right now. Austin, they’re uncorrelated. Traditional markets are down 11 percent year to date. Bitcoin is up to five percent. It’s because of having. It’s because of Bitcoin strong fundamentals. Expect Bitcoin to pump, not dump. Well, I’m just speaking in the short term. Just look at this. Let me prove it to you. The crash started the first low crash of the S&P start around February 20th, lasted until about February 20th. What a bitcoin do in this time period. This is Bitcoin year to date. This was around, in fact, a lookup top. Don’t look, Mihiro, look up top. This was around February 20th, right here. Stocks started. Crash Bitcoin held out for one to a few days, and in February, the twenty-eighth Bitcoin followed. That was the first little crash. The second crash started around March 4th. Let’s just go to the 1st and March 4th to March 9th. What a bitcoin do. March 4th to March 9th here. March 4th. Look up top right here. March 4th. We held out for a couple of days. And then by March 9th, right here, we crashed. And then the third example, pretty much the last big crash started around March 10th. March 10th to March. Twenty third. What a bitcoin do. March 10th to March. Twenty third. Well, it started right here this time. Start right here. Look up top. We lasted for about a day and then obviously we crashed and we crashed hard. Now Bitcoin was one of the first to recover, much like gold as a potential hedge against the stock market. We recovered first, but a lesson was learned. When traditional markets go down, they pull down everything with them. Now, I do have major news involving the Alte coin yose, the old coin, stellar lumens, the old coin ex Arpey. So stick around to the entire video, but let me know what you think about this. I guess my point is just Hodel. Nobody knows the future. And actually when I made two bullish videos, the bitcoin having twenty explaining what the significance of what the bitcoin having means in bitcoin price pumping. Many, many people are asking, OK, Austin. Well, well then do I buy Bitcoin before having or do I buy it after the having since nobody knows the future? Me personally, I like to dollar cost average the whole way, but I’ll never tell you what you should do. You make your own decisions. But the first piece of news before we get to steller iOS IO will process intercompany transactions for clients of Grant Thornton, a major accounting firm with one point nine billion dollars in annual revenue. So this is being processed by iOS, not a theorem, not Tron. This huge corporation with one point nine billion in annual revenue chose iOS major. U.S. accounting firm Grant Thornton is moving all of its client’s intercompany transactions to the iOS IO network. Basically, they manage money for intercompany transactions and now they’re doing it on the iOS IO blockchain. But why did they choose iOS? A company representative told Quinn Telegraph that Grant Thornton had chosen iOS Io for its speed, user experience and scalability. Good for Yose. Next piece of news before REPL. Before Stellar Big Macs. Their Derivatives Future Exchange has lost approximately 50 percent of its market share over the last six months. So this is a chart of shares of open interest of Bitcoin futures per platform and at one point, Bemax. Some people call it shit. Max was the only game in town, right? Multiple years ago. Now, there are many other options if you want to trade Bitcoin futures. So what are the people choosing? Well, you can see starting up here, backed bid Phoenix and crack in are the three futures platforms that people are using, least the three platforms that people are using. Most are OK, ex-Big Macs still and Holby and then CMG, of course, finance and finance and by bit are creeping up. But moving on. Next piece of news. Stellar lumens, stellar Excel m transactions will now all be monitored by elliptical so they will no longer be private. Not that excellent was a privacy coin, but it’s not that they won’t be private. It’s now they will specifically be watching every transaction your transaction. Now, why is this? A transaction monitoring system aims to boost compliance and identify risks like money laundering, terrorist financing and other illicit activities. So this is steller, trying to comply with things that regulators care about, like terrorist financing, which I can definitely get behind. But the downside is the move sacrifices privacy. Yet it could be attractive to institutional investors. So this is a double-edged sword. Just something you should know, I guess, elliptical. A lot of bitcoins don’t really like elliptical because I mean elliptic. So Elliptic. Sorry, Elliptic. Glyptic Elliptic is backed by Wells Fargo Elliptic. We’ll be watching you. A little green flag for ripples, SRP, Ripple’s x Arpey sales fall to one point seven five million. This is how much the company is selling onto the market as OTL OnDemand liquidity network volume triples. So let’s find out what this means. All of this data is from their quarterly report, Q1 2020 X Arpey Markets Report. So check this out. The dollar value transacted using Odel. So people actually using X Arpey increased by more than two hundred and ninety-four percent, which is good news for Tolkan holders. Not that that means the price will go up, but it’s good news with the report describing X Arpey liquidity as the lifeblood of rebels Odille for cross-border payments. Now, in my opinion, we’ve seen so many quarters or Ripple’s volume was stagnant. Eventually, it did have to go up and this was a good quarter for a rebel. And further good news, Rebel has again reduced the total X Arpey sales that the company sells from thirteen points oh eight million in Q4 of 2019 to just thirteen to one point seventy-five million in Q1 2020. So they sold away less last quarter. The company has been criticized for propping up its balance sheet with x ERP sales. And the reason that they say that they sold is the report also notes that the token was integrated into a number of additional exchanges and liquidity instruments. So what they always say, but somebody needed liquidity and they sold X Arpey to them. All right. That’s the video Imes Austin. See you tomorrow.

source https://www.cryptosharks.net/upcoming-stock-market-collapse-of-2020/ source https://cryptosharks1.blogspot.com/2020/05/the-upcoming-stock-market-collapse-of.html

[jeffrmayhugh]

The Upcoming Stock Market Collapse Of 2020 | Will This Affect Bitcoin?? [The “Sell in May” Agenda]

VIDEO TRANSCRIPT

All right. Welcome back, everybody. My name is Austin with almost less than 11 days till Bitcoin’s third having ever Bitcoin. The price of Bitcoin is having a hell of a week. Let’s just check out the last seven days. Bitcoin started the week at around seven thousand five hundred. We topped out a few days ago at nine thousand four hundred. And right now we’re levelling off at around eight thousand seven hundred. That’s huge. Now, if that’s what Bitcoin could do with 20 days to go to the having, just think about what Bitcoin could do with less than 10. And for every reason that I listed a few days ago in my Bitcoin having 2020 supply shock video, this is a huge reminder of what makes Bitcoin valuable long term. But as a smart investor, as an investor that looks at global macroeconomic trends. I want you to be prepared for Bitcoin to crash. And for Bitcoin to potentially crash hard. Now, I’m not a financial adviser. I can’t see the future, but I’m going to show you my reasoning. And to be clear, when I say crash hard, I don’t mean down to one K or two K. I mean, it’s not out of the question for us to see a 20, 25, 30 percent drawdown in the short term. I’m talking about something similar to what we saw a few months ago. It’s not out of the question. And all I’m saying is be ready to hotel. There’s a lot of new bitcoins in the space today. Be ready for the hotel. We could potentially see major volatility in the short term. And this is the reason why this is traditional stocks. The stock market in the month of April, we saw a hell of a good month for the stock market. In fact, the stock market closed out last month with their best monthly gains since 1987. Since the original Robocop came out in theatres, that’s the last time we had this good a month in traditional markets. Now, that’s a very odd thing to say, because right now we will or 30 million people in the United States unemployed. They’re not working. Also, by no fault of anybodys but this silent killer. But America’s food supply chain is broken right now, meaning there’s no demand. There are enormous amounts of food, enormous supply, but there’s no demand. And I’m very aware that America, other countries around the world are starting to open themselves up again. America as early as May 1st. So today. But it’s a fool’s hope, I believe, to think that these jobs will instantly come back. I mean, all of them. I mean, seeing the demand we saw for employment that we saw three months ago, our road to recovery, in my opinion, will happen. But it will take time. It’ll take time. But looking at this month, looking at today with the best April for the Dow and the S&P 500 that we’ve seen, this says 82 years, I think it should say, since the 80s. But we’ve seen at least since 1987 is the sell in May. Strategy a smart strategy in this pandemic era. And actually, the saying sell in May go away is already. It’s actually one of the most well-known maxims in the investing world. Now, the question is, will this hold true this time as investors face or on the most significant public health crises in history? The reason that investors expect the markets to take a decline in May is that the Wall Street adage actually refers specifically to the six months on, six months off a seasonal pattern that people typically see in markets because on average, markets tend to underperform from May through the end of October and then around the Christmas season through January February. They pump May has traditionally been that start of the downturn. Now, to be fair, the downturn actually started this year around the end of February, March, and it was huge. But this was our April, one of the best April’s ever. So taking into account everything with governments opening up their countries again, with America opening up. If the jobs aren’t there if the consumer demand isn’t there and I’m talking about isn’t to what it previously was, what we knew the markets to be, how will the next few months look? We’re the best April that we’ve seen since 1987. Nobody can see the future. And to be fair, this is new. We’ve never seen. When we proactively shut down a country and then proactively ask everybody to go back to work, we’ve never seen that. But if the stock market crashes, expect Bitcoin to crash. Expect Bitcoin to at least dip. And you may be screaming at your screen right now. Austin, they’re uncorrelated. Traditional markets are down 11 percent year to date. Bitcoin is up to five percent. It’s because of having. It’s because of Bitcoin strong fundamentals. Expect Bitcoin to pump, not dump. Well, I’m just speaking in the short term. Just look at this. Let me prove it to you. The crash started the first low crash of the S&P start around February 20th, lasted until about February 20th. What a bitcoin do in this time period. This is Bitcoin year to date. This was around, in fact, a lookup top. Don’t look, Mihiro, look up top. This was around February 20th, right here. Stocks started. Crash Bitcoin held out for one to a few days, and in February, the twenty-eighth Bitcoin followed. That was the first little crash. The second crash started around March 4th. Let’s just go to the 1st and March 4th to March 9th. What a bitcoin do. March 4th to March 9th here. March 4th. Look up top right here. March 4th. We held out for a couple of days. And then by March 9th, right here, we crashed. And then the third example, pretty much the last big crash started around March 10th. March 10th to March. Twenty third. What a bitcoin do. March 10th to March. Twenty third. Well, it started right here this time. Start right here. Look up top. We lasted for about a day and then obviously we crashed and we crashed hard. Now Bitcoin was one of the first to recover, much like gold as a potential hedge against the stock market. We recovered first, but a lesson was learned. When traditional markets go down, they pull down everything with them. Now, I do have major news involving the Alte coin yose, the old coin, stellar lumens, the old coin ex Arpey. So stick around to the entire video, but let me know what you think about this. I guess my point is just Hodel. Nobody knows the future. And actually when I made two bullish videos, the bitcoin having twenty explaining what the significance of what the bitcoin having means in bitcoin price pumping. Many, many people are asking, OK, Austin. Well, well then do I buy Bitcoin before having or do I buy it after the having since nobody knows the future? Me personally, I like to dollar cost average the whole way, but I’ll never tell you what you should do. You make your own decisions. But the first piece of news before we get to steller iOS IO will process intercompany transactions for clients of Grant Thornton, a major accounting firm with one point nine billion dollars in annual revenue. So this is being processed by iOS, not a theorem, not Tron. This huge corporation with one point nine billion in annual revenue chose iOS major. U.S. accounting firm Grant Thornton is moving all of its client’s intercompany transactions to the iOS IO network. Basically, they manage money for intercompany transactions and now they’re doing it on the iOS IO blockchain. But why did they choose iOS? A company representative told Quinn Telegraph that Grant Thornton had chosen iOS Io for its speed, user experience and scalability. Good for Yose. Next piece of news before REPL. Before Stellar Big Macs. Their Derivatives Future Exchange has lost approximately 50 percent of its market share over the last six months. So this is a chart of shares of open interest of Bitcoin futures per platform and at one point, Bemax. Some people call it shit. Max was the only game in town, right? Multiple years ago. Now, there are many other options if you want to trade Bitcoin futures. So what are the people choosing? Well, you can see starting up here, backed bid Phoenix and crack in are the three futures platforms that people are using, least the three platforms that people are using. Most are OK, ex-Big Macs still and Holby and then CMG, of course, finance and finance and by bit are creeping up. But moving on. Next piece of news. Stellar lumens, stellar Excel m transactions will now all be monitored by elliptical so they will no longer be private. Not that excellent was a privacy coin, but it’s not that they won’t be private. It’s now they will specifically be watching every transaction your transaction. Now, why is this? A transaction monitoring system aims to boost compliance and identify risks like money laundering, terrorist financing and other illicit activities. So this is steller, trying to comply with things that regulators care about, like terrorist financing, which I can definitely get behind. But the downside is the move sacrifices privacy. Yet it could be attractive to institutional investors. So this is a double-edged sword. Just something you should know, I guess, elliptical. A lot of bitcoins don’t really like elliptical because I mean elliptic. So Elliptic. Sorry, Elliptic. Glyptic Elliptic is backed by Wells Fargo Elliptic. We’ll be watching you. A little green flag for ripples, SRP, Ripple’s x Arpey sales fall to one point seven five million. This is how much the company is selling onto the market as OTL OnDemand liquidity network volume triples. So let’s find out what this means. All of this data is from their quarterly report, Q1 2020 X Arpey Markets Report. So check this out. The dollar value transacted using Odel. So people actually using X Arpey increased by more than two hundred and ninety-four percent, which is good news for Tolkan holders. Not that that means the price will go up, but it’s good news with the report describing X Arpey liquidity as the lifeblood of rebels Odille for cross-border payments. Now, in my opinion, we’ve seen so many quarters or Ripple’s volume was stagnant. Eventually, it did have to go up and this was a good quarter for a rebel. And further good news, Rebel has again reduced the total X Arpey sales that the company sells from thirteen points oh eight million in Q4 of 2019 to just thirteen to one point seventy-five million in Q1 2020. So they sold away less last quarter. The company has been criticized for propping up its balance sheet with x ERP sales. And the reason that they say that they sold is the report also notes that the token was integrated into a number of additional exchanges and liquidity instruments. So what they always say, but somebody needed liquidity and they sold X Arpey to them. All right. That’s the video Imes Austin. See you tomorrow.

source https://www.cryptosharks.net/upcoming-stock-market-collapse-of-2020/ source https://cryptosharks1.tumblr.com/post/617279592760328192

[cryptosharks1]

The Upcoming Stock Market Collapse Of 2020 | Will This Affect Bitcoin?? [The “Sell in May” Agenda]

VIDEO TRANSCRIPT

All right. Welcome back, everybody. My name is Austin with almost less than 11 days till Bitcoin’s third having ever Bitcoin. The price of Bitcoin is having a hell of a week. Let’s just check out the last seven days. Bitcoin started the week at around seven thousand five hundred. We topped out a few days ago at nine thousand four hundred. And right now we’re levelling off at around eight thousand seven hundred. That’s huge. Now, if that’s what Bitcoin could do with 20 days to go to the having, just think about what Bitcoin could do with less than 10. And for every reason that I listed a few days ago in my Bitcoin having 2020 supply shock video, this is a huge reminder of what makes Bitcoin valuable long term. But as a smart investor, as an investor that looks at global macroeconomic trends. I want you to be prepared for Bitcoin to crash. And for Bitcoin to potentially crash hard. Now, I’m not a financial adviser. I can’t see the future, but I’m going to show you my reasoning. And to be clear, when I say crash hard, I don’t mean down to one K or two K. I mean, it’s not out of the question for us to see a 20, 25, 30 percent drawdown in the short term. I’m talking about something similar to what we saw a few months ago. It’s not out of the question. And all I’m saying is be ready to hotel. There’s a lot of new bitcoins in the space today. Be ready for the hotel. We could potentially see major volatility in the short term. And this is the reason why this is traditional stocks. The stock market in the month of April, we saw a hell of a good month for the stock market. In fact, the stock market closed out last month with their best monthly gains since 1987. Since the original Robocop came out in theatres, that’s the last time we had this good a month in traditional markets. Now, that’s a very odd thing to say, because right now we will or 30 million people in the United States unemployed. They’re not working. Also, by no fault of anybodys but this silent killer. But America’s food supply chain is broken right now, meaning there’s no demand. There are enormous amounts of food, enormous supply, but there’s no demand. And I’m very aware that America, other countries around the world are starting to open themselves up again. America as early as May 1st. So today. But it’s a fool’s hope, I believe, to think that these jobs will instantly come back. I mean, all of them. I mean, seeing the demand we saw for employment that we saw three months ago, our road to recovery, in my opinion, will happen. But it will take time. It’ll take time. But looking at this month, looking at today with the best April for the Dow and the S&P 500 that we’ve seen, this says 82 years, I think it should say, since the 80s. But we’ve seen at least since 1987 is the sell in May. Strategy a smart strategy in this pandemic era. And actually, the saying sell in May go away is already. It’s actually one of the most well-known maxims in the investing world. Now, the question is, will this hold true this time as investors face or on the most significant public health crises in history? The reason that investors expect the markets to take a decline in May is that the Wall Street adage actually refers specifically to the six months on, six months off a seasonal pattern that people typically see in markets because on average, markets tend to underperform from May through the end of October and then around the Christmas season through January February. They pump May has traditionally been that start of the downturn. Now, to be fair, the downturn actually started this year around the end of February, March, and it was huge. But this was our April, one of the best April’s ever. So taking into account everything with governments opening up their countries again, with America opening up. If the jobs aren’t there if the consumer demand isn’t there and I’m talking about isn’t to what it previously was, what we knew the markets to be, how will the next few months look? We’re the best April that we’ve seen since 1987. Nobody can see the future. And to be fair, this is new. We’ve never seen. When we proactively shut down a country and then proactively ask everybody to go back to work, we’ve never seen that. But if the stock market crashes, expect Bitcoin to crash. Expect Bitcoin to at least dip. And you may be screaming at your screen right now. Austin, they’re uncorrelated. Traditional markets are down 11 percent year to date. Bitcoin is up to five percent. It’s because of having. It’s because of Bitcoin strong fundamentals. Expect Bitcoin to pump, not dump. Well, I’m just speaking in the short term. Just look at this. Let me prove it to you. The crash started the first low crash of the S&P start around February 20th, lasted until about February 20th. What a bitcoin do in this time period. This is Bitcoin year to date. This was around, in fact, a lookup top. Don’t look, Mihiro, look up top. This was around February 20th, right here. Stocks started. Crash Bitcoin held out for one to a few days, and in February, the twenty-eighth Bitcoin followed. That was the first little crash. The second crash started around March 4th. Let’s just go to the 1st and March 4th to March 9th. What a bitcoin do. March 4th to March 9th here. March 4th. Look up top right here. March 4th. We held out for a couple of days. And then by March 9th, right here, we crashed. And then the third example, pretty much the last big crash started around March 10th. March 10th to March. Twenty third. What a bitcoin do. March 10th to March. Twenty third. Well, it started right here this time. Start right here. Look up top. We lasted for about a day and then obviously we crashed and we crashed hard. Now Bitcoin was one of the first to recover, much like gold as a potential hedge against the stock market. We recovered first, but a lesson was learned. When traditional markets go down, they pull down everything with them. Now, I do have major news involving the Alte coin yose, the old coin, stellar lumens, the old coin ex Arpey. So stick around to the entire video, but let me know what you think about this. I guess my point is just Hodel. Nobody knows the future. And actually when I made two bullish videos, the bitcoin having twenty explaining what the significance of what the bitcoin having means in bitcoin price pumping. Many, many people are asking, OK, Austin. Well, well then do I buy Bitcoin before having or do I buy it after the having since nobody knows the future? Me personally, I like to dollar cost average the whole way, but I’ll never tell you what you should do. You make your own decisions. But the first piece of news before we get to steller iOS IO will process intercompany transactions for clients of Grant Thornton, a major accounting firm with one point nine billion dollars in annual revenue. So this is being processed by iOS, not a theorem, not Tron. This huge corporation with one point nine billion in annual revenue chose iOS major. U.S. accounting firm Grant Thornton is moving all of its client’s intercompany transactions to the iOS IO network. Basically, they manage money for intercompany transactions and now they’re doing it on the iOS IO blockchain. But why did they choose iOS? A company representative told Quinn Telegraph that Grant Thornton had chosen iOS Io for its speed, user experience and scalability. Good for Yose. Next piece of news before REPL. Before Stellar Big Macs. Their Derivatives Future Exchange has lost approximately 50 percent of its market share over the last six months. So this is a chart of shares of open interest of Bitcoin futures per platform and at one point, Bemax. Some people call it shit. Max was the only game in town, right? Multiple years ago. Now, there are many other options if you want to trade Bitcoin futures. So what are the people choosing? Well, you can see starting up here, backed bid Phoenix and crack in are the three futures platforms that people are using, least the three platforms that people are using. Most are OK, ex-Big Macs still and Holby and then CMG, of course, finance and finance and by bit are creeping up. But moving on. Next piece of news. Stellar lumens, stellar Excel m transactions will now all be monitored by elliptical so they will no longer be private. Not that excellent was a privacy coin, but it’s not that they won’t be private. It’s now they will specifically be watching every transaction your transaction. Now, why is this? A transaction monitoring system aims to boost compliance and identify risks like money laundering, terrorist financing and other illicit activities. So this is steller, trying to comply with things that regulators care about, like terrorist financing, which I can definitely get behind. But the downside is the move sacrifices privacy. Yet it could be attractive to institutional investors. So this is a double-edged sword. Just something you should know, I guess, elliptical. A lot of bitcoins don’t really like elliptical because I mean elliptic. So Elliptic. Sorry, Elliptic. Glyptic Elliptic is backed by Wells Fargo Elliptic. We’ll be watching you. A little green flag for ripples, SRP, Ripple’s x Arpey sales fall to one point seven five million. This is how much the company is selling onto the market as OTL OnDemand liquidity network volume triples. So let’s find out what this means. All of this data is from their quarterly report, Q1 2020 X Arpey Markets Report. So check this out. The dollar value transacted using Odel. So people actually using X Arpey increased by more than two hundred and ninety-four percent, which is good news for Tolkan holders. Not that that means the price will go up, but it’s good news with the report describing X Arpey liquidity as the lifeblood of rebels Odille for cross-border payments. Now, in my opinion, we’ve seen so many quarters or Ripple’s volume was stagnant. Eventually, it did have to go up and this was a good quarter for a rebel. And further good news, Rebel has again reduced the total X Arpey sales that the company sells from thirteen points oh eight million in Q4 of 2019 to just thirteen to one point seventy-five million in Q1 2020. So they sold away less last quarter. The company has been criticized for propping up its balance sheet with x ERP sales. And the reason that they say that they sold is the report also notes that the token was integrated into a number of additional exchanges and liquidity instruments. So what they always say, but somebody needed liquidity and they sold X Arpey to them. All right. That’s the video Imes Austin. See you tomorrow.

source https://www.cryptosharks.net/upcoming-stock-market-collapse-of-2020/

[clairedmaddox]

How to Calculate Maximum Drawdown in Excel

Maximum drawdown is an important trading statistic that you should know in your backtesting and live trading. In backtesting, it shows you the downside risk of a strategy. Tracking max drawdown in live trading helps you understand when your strategy might not be working as expected.

Maximum drawdown (MDD) is calculated in percent, and is the most that your account has lost between high watermarks. In order to get your maximum drawdown, calculate your running percent profit and loss total, then use the Excel MIN function to get the maximum drawdown, which is the most negative number. Even if there is currently no new high watermark, but your current drawdown is greater than previous maximum drawdowns, then your current drawdown can be used as your maximum drawdown.  

Here's a video to show you maximum drawdown in action. If you prefer the text version, it's provided below the video.

Step-By-Step Guide to Calculating Maximum Trading Drawdown in Excel

This is the exact process for calculating max drawdown in Excel.

You can use similar formulas in spreadsheet programs like:

Mac Numbers

Google Sheets

OpenOffice

First import your trades into Excel. I'll be using an export from Forex Tester to analyze my backtesting results. You can learn more about Forex Tester here.

Go to: File > Import. Then find your file.

Next, create a column called Balance and add the profit from each trade to the running balance. The formula is shown here.

In the next column, create a percent profit or loss for each trade. Since max drawdown should be calculated in percent, we have to figure out the percent change on each trade.

Then add the percent profit or loss in the next column to create a running total.

Once you have this running total in percent, you can use the MIN function to find the smallest (most negative) number in this column to get the max drawdown. The formula in this example is:

=MIN(t3:t17) 

Finally, you can also create a graph of your drawdown, so it's easier to visualize. Simply highlight row T (or your running percent change total column), then click the graph button to create a graph on the side of the table.

That's all there is to it!

Even if you don't have a new high watermark in your account balance, but your current drawdown is bigger than previous drawdowns, you can consider your current drawdown your max drawdown.

How do You Find Max Drawdown of a Portfolio?

The process of calculating max drawdown for a portfolio is the same. Simply add all of the trades in the portfolio to the spreadsheet.

After that, sort all of the trades by exit date. Then calculate the running profit/loss in percent.

Finally, use the MIN function in Excel to find the biggest drawdown in the running total.

What Does Maximum Drawdown Tell You?

There are 3 different scenarios when you should look at maximum drawdown:

Backtesting

Beta Testing

Live Trading

The max drawdown in each situation gives you different information.

Backtesting

You should find out what your max drawdown is for a particular system in backtesting, so you know what to expect in live trading. 

Your backtesting results may have produced solid returns, but if you couldn't realistically endure the biggest drawdown, then the system won't work for you. It's good to know that before you start trading with real money.

The great thing about backtesting is that you can test many different ideas, to see how a little tweak in the strategy changes the results. Once you have a strategy that you like, you can move on to the next step.

Beta Testing

When you are Beta Testing (also known as forward testing), this is the first opportunity to see if your backtesting results will translate into live market conditions.

Sometimes they don't, for reasons that I talk about here.

If your Beta Testing max drawdown is much bigger than your backtesting drawdown, then you might be doing something differently in Beta Testing. Compare your backtesting trades to your Beta trades to see why you are having a bigger drawdown. 

This intermediate step acts as the final check on your trading strategy, before you go live. Keep in mind that the strategy might be working fine, but you simply hit a run of bad luck.

Live Trading

Finally, your max drawdown in live trading will show you how well you are doing, compared to your testing. If your live trading max drawdown is higher than your backtesting or beta testing, then you should like at your live trading more closely.

Here are some things to consider:

Are you taking too many impulsive trades?

Have market conditions changed?

Are you not following the rules of your strategy?

Have you been revenge trading?

Tracking your max drawdown is a warning system that will show you when one or more of these things could be out of line. Without this information, you might not know that you are trading poorly…until it's too late. 

At that point, it might be really hard to make up for the losses. 

In addition, when you have backtesting and Beta Trading data, you can compare your testing trades to your live trades to see if there are any noticeable differences. If you don't have testing trades to reference, you'll have to build up your “library” of trades with live trades only and that can take some time.

Expected Maximum Drawdown

Testing isn't the only way to figure out your expected maximum drawdown.

You can also use a Monte Carlo simulation to find out how much your strategy could potentially lose. 

Backtesting and forward testing are good approximations of how your strategy will perform, but it's also good to plug your stats into a simulator to see what your worst possible result could be.

A Monte Carlo simulation simply uses the parameters of your strategy like win rate and win/loss per trade. Then it simulates thousands of trades with those properties, to see what your worst drawdown might possibly turn out to be.

For example, you might have a maximum of 4 losing trades in a row in testing. However, a Monte Carlo simulation shows that you can potentially have up to 10 losing trades in a row. 

This is important information because if you trade this live and you hit 8 losing trades in a row, you might think that your strategy has stopped working.

In reality, this is within the normal parameters of how your system works and you shouldn't freak out about it.

However, if you hit 12 losing trades in a row, then it might be time to stop trading and review your results because this is outside the maximum loss that you saw in the Monte Carlo simulation.

You should plugin backtesting, Beta Testing and live trading results into a Monte Carlo simulator to see what your expected max drawdown might be.

The more data you have the better.

What is a Good Maximum Drawdown?

There's no such a thing as a “good” maximum drawdown. Acceptable maximum drawdown will vary by trader. 

Many new independent traders strive to have a low maximum drawdown. But with low risk also comes low rewards. If you are OK with that, then low drawdowns should be one of your goals.

However, if you want to see higher returns, then you will usually have to endure higher drawdowns.

That's just how trading works, there are no free lunches. 

Another thing to consider when looking at max drawdown is the psychological effect that the drawdown might have on you. 

Some traders are able to withstand a 60% drawdown, in exchange for also having higher returns.

But for a lot of traders, a 60% drawdown would freak them out!

So you should find your “freak out” point and tailor your trading strategy accordingly. Read this post on finding your Risk Tolerance Personality to learn more about how to figure out your risk tolerance.

A good max drawdown for you might be more like 10%. If that's the case, you will probably have to risk less per trade.

Conclusion

Every trader should know their max drawdown in live trading. It also helps to know your drawdown in backtesting and forward testing because that data will give you reference points to help improve your trading.

Take a few minutes to do this simple calculation right now, and find out how you're doing.

Then also run your data through a Monte Carlo simulator to see how big your drawdown could possibly get. If you aren't comfortable with that expected max drawdown, then dial back your risk per trade until you can tolerate the maximum risk.

The post How to Calculate Maximum Drawdown in Excel appeared first on Trading Heroes.

How to Calculate Maximum Drawdown in Excel published first on your-t1-blog-url

[logical-invest-asset-allocation]

Updated asset allocation models

With the start of our new application we have added new strategies, portfolios and some popular lazy portfolios as starting point for further research.

We’ve been asked by some followers to provide a short summary of the available options, so here it is:

Strategy: Top 3 Strategies: This strategy selects the top three performers from our core strategies, based on the most recent 3 month performance, and allocates one third to each of them.Note that very often the strategy will invest in the more aggressive of our strategies, which might not be suitable for all investors. You can create your version of this strategy with our Portfolio Builder. Simply select the top 2, 3, or 4 strategies and assign equal weights to each or adjust your allocations for your risk level. You will need to manually review and update the top performers periodically.

Strategy: Bond ETF Rotation Strategy: The Bond Rotation Strategy is one of our core investment strategies. It is appropriate for investors looking to collect bond dividends while pursuing growth by rotating between bond sectors. The strategy evaluates and allocates to the best performing bond ETFs including treasuries, TIPS, foreign, high-yield and convertible bonds. This is a good strategy if you are looking for a safe long-term investment with low risk.

Strategy: BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy: The BUG strategy is one of our more conservative strategies. The strategy does not attempt to predict prices or the future state of the economy. It holds a broad diversified number of assets that complement each other, each performing well in a different economic environment such as inflation, deflation, growth and stagnation. It is meant for long term, steady growth and low risk.It inherits part of its logic from Harry Browne’s tried-and-true Permanent Portfolio and the publicized workings of the All-Weather portfolio.

Portfolio: Conservative Risk Portfolio: Recommended for: Capital preservation, liquidity and for investors close to or in retirement.The Conservative Portfolio is appropriate for an investor with a low risk tolerance or a need to make withdrawals over the next 1 to 3 years. Conservative investors are willing to accept lower returns in exchange for lower account drawdowns in periods of market volatility.To be compatible with most retirement plans, this Portfolio does not include our Maximum Yield Strategy and leveraged Universal Investment Strategy. If you are using a more flexible account you can choose from our unconstrained portfolios in the Portfolio Library.We also offer a version for 401k plans which do not allow individual stocks.

Portfolio: Max Drawdown less than 10%: This portfolio has been optimized for achieving the highest possible return while limiting the maximum Drawdown, that is the highest drop from peak to valley over the analyzed period, to 10%. As a reference, the maximum experienced drawdown of the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) over the same period has been 27%, while the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) experienced a drop of 55%.As such it is a moderate Portfolio suited for investors with a limited risk tolerance and moderate growth expectations.Please note that the Maximum DrawDown refers to a single event, for analyzing the risk of losses you should also consider other related metrics like the maximum and average duration and the Ulcer Ratio. A more reliable measure for the downside risk of an asset over a period of time is the Downside Deviation or Volatility.Please note that this portfolio might use leveraged ETF and single stocks. Should these not be allowed in your retirement account please see our 401k and IRS compatible Conservative, Moderate, and Aggressive Risk Portfolios. Contact us for special requirements

Portfolio: Max Drawdown less than 15%: This portfolio has been optimized for achieving the highest possible return while limiting the maximum Drawdown, that is the highest drop from peak to valley over the analyzed period, to 15%. As a reference, the maximum experienced drawdown of the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) over the same period has been 27%, while the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) experienced a drop of 55%.As such it is a aggressive Portfolio suited for investors with a higher risk tolerance and aggressive growth expectations.Please note that the Maximum DrawDown refers to a single event, for analyzing the risk of losses you should also consider other related metrics like the maximum and average duration and the Ulcer Ratio. A more reliable measure for the downside risk of an asset over a period of time is the Downside Deviation or Volatility.Please note that this portfolio might use leveraged ETF and single stocks. Should these not be allowed in your retirement account please see our 401k and IRS compatible Conservative, Moderate, and Aggressive Risk Portfolios. Contact us for special requirements.

Strategy: Gold-Currency Strategy II: The Gold-Currency Strategy II takes advantage of the historically negative correlation between gold and the U.S. dollar. It switches between the two assets based on their recent risk adjusted performance enabling the strategy to provide protection against severe gold corrections due to dollar strength. It is an excellent addition to existing equity or bond portfolios as it holds very little correlation to either.This strategy is an update to the original GLD-USD strategy that uses inverse leveraged ETFs which are not permitted in some retirement accounts.

Strategy: Global Market Rotation Strategy: The Global Market Rotation Strategy is one of our core investment strategies. The strategy invests on a monthly basis in one of five broad global markets. It hedges the global equity exposure with variable allocation to the HEDGE sub-strategy.

Strategy: The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Aggressive version: This is the aggressive version of the Global Sector Rotation Strategy and is used as a sub-strategy. It picks on a monthly basis the top two performing global sectors.

Strategy: Global Sector Rotation Strategy: The Global Sector Rotation Strategy (OTC:GSRS) provides a good diversification to our other strategies. The strategy invests in the top two performing global sectors. Global sector ETFs often display well-defined, long lasting, up or down trends which makes them a good fit rotation strategies. Another advantage of sector rotation strategies is that even in sideways markets, there are often still individual sectors that are performing well.This strategy consists of three sub-strategies: GSRS aggressive , GSRS low-volatility and the HEDGE sub-strategies.

Strategy: The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Low Volatility version: This is the low volatility version of the Global Sector Rotation Strategy and is used as a sub-strategy. It picks on a monthly basis the top two performing global sectors.

Strategy: Hedge Strategy: This sub-strategy looks at two components and chooses the most appropriate one: A Treasury and a GLD-USD sub-strategy. The addition of gold provides an option for prolonged inflationary environments that could place bonds in a multi-year bear market.The equity/bond (or in our case HEDGE) pair is interesting because most of the time these two asset classes profit from an inverse correlation. If there is a real stock market correction, money typically flows towards treasuries and gold rewarding holders and providing crash protection.

Strategy: Maximum Yield Strategy: The Maximum Yield Rotation Strategy is a high-performing, high-risk investment strategy that rebalances twice a month. It trades one of the most profitable asset classes, volatility, by rebalancing a portfolio between two ETFs: ZIV (VelocityShares Inverse VIX Medium-Term ETF) and TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Treasury 3X ETF).When you trade inverse volatility, which means going short VIX, you play the role of an insurer who sells worried investors an insurance policy to protect them from falling stock markets. Investing in inverse volatility means nothing more than taking over the risk and collecting this insurance premium from worried investors. This obviously needs to be done carefully by following a rules-based strategy.This strategy is a good way to profit from VIX contango while minimizing heavy losses during volatility spikes. Since treasury bonds and inverse volatility have shown significant negative correlation to each other, the strategy reduces losses during financial crisis by switching early into treasuries. It is still a risky strategy and large drawdown are to be expected, so we recommend allocating no more than 15% of your overall portfolio.For more information on trading “short volatility”, read our original whitepaper on the topic.

Portfolio: Max Sharpe Portfolio: This portfolio has been optimized to provide the highest Sharpe Ratio, which is a metric that compares the amount of return versus the amount of risk, based on historical data. Return is based on CAGR and risk is based on volatility. The portfolio is well suited for risk adverse investors with moderate growth expectations.Please note that this portfolio might use leveraged ETF and single stocks. Should these not be allowed in your retirement account please see our 401k and IRS compatible Conservative, Moderate, and Aggressive Risk Portfolios. Contact us for special requirements.

Portfolio: Minimum Volatility Portfolio: This portfolio has been optimized for achieving the lowest possible historical volatility over the analyzed period with the involved assets. As such, it exhibits the least risk of all our portfolios, and is therefore suited especially for very risk adverse investors with conservative growth expectations.Please note that this portfolio might use leveraged ETF and single stocks. Should these not be allowed in your retirement account please see our 401k and IRS compatible Conservative, Moderate, and Aggressive Risk Portfolios. Contact us for special requirements.

Portfolio: Moderate Risk Portfolio: Recommended for: Capital accumulation, savers and investors 10–20 years from retirement. The Moderate Risk Portfolio is appropriate for an investor with a medium risk tolerance and a time horizon longer than five years. Moderate investors are willing to accept periods of moderate market volatility in exchange for the possibility of receiving returns that outpace inflation by a significant margin.Tobe compatible with most retirement plans, this Portfolio does not include our Maximum Yield Strategy and leveraged Universal Investment Strategy. If you are using a more flexible account you can choose from our unconstrained portfolios in the Portfolio Library.We also offer a version for 401k plans which do not allow individual stocks.

Strategy: NASDAQ 100 Strategy: The Nasdaq 100 Strategy is a good way to ride the extraordinary momentum of the Nasdaq 100 Index while keeping some protection from market downturns. It is also a great alternative for stock-pickers looking for a rules-based stock selection strategy.The strategy uses a risk-adjusted momentum algorithm to choose the top four Nasdaq 100 stocks with a variable allocation to treasuries or gold to smooth the equity curve and provide crash protection in bear markets. The strategy combines well with our more conservative strategies, such as the Bond Rotation Strategy or BUG, or with one of our non-U.S. equity strategies such as World Top 4, to form a well balanced portfolio.The existence of price momentum has been heavily studied and well documented over the years. It reveals itself in assets that have strong absolute performance or performance relative to their peers. Logical Invest has exploited asset class and sector momentum in many of our strategies for years. We have found individual stock momentum tends to be an even stronger force, particularly in the top NASDAQ stocks. When properly identified, it can be capitalized on to provide an investment edge.During bull markets, and especially “risk off” periods, the strongest NASDAQ stocks typically beat the market handily. However, they can also get ahead of themselves which makes them more vulnerable during “risk on” periods. To manage those challenges, the strategy incorporates several advanced methodologies:Mean Reversion — Momentum is based on the principle of buying high and selling higher, however, as most investors have experienced, stocks that rise too quickly can also have short-term corrections. The strategy uses a mean reversion component to penalize stocks that rise too much or too fast.Protection — The strategy allocates a portion to treasuries to balance out the supercharged Nasdaq momentum stocks. This improves risk adjusted returns and moderates strategy drawdowns. The model also allocates more to treasuries if the overall Nasdaq 100 index exhibits momentum weakness.Intelligent Ranking — Our algorithms ensures we get the right blend of stocks that work well together and have an allocation to each individual stock that reflects its volatility in relation to other stocks.

Strategy: NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Strategy: The NASDAQ 100 is a sub-strategy.

Strategy: Enhanced Permanent Portfolio Strategy: The classic permanent portfolio was created by Harry Browne. The idea was that a portfolio should be diversified enough to get you through a wide variety of economic and market environments and simple enough that even a child could do it. Originally it consisted of the following allocations:25% in U.S. stocks25% in long-term bonds25% in gold25% in cashThe Logical Invest permanent portfolio is somewhat more sophisticated, rebalances monthly and is not always split evenly across the three main assets. It can adapt to market conditions by putting more weight on gold or treasuries and less on equity depending on market conditions.

Strategy: Leveraged Universal Investment Strategy: The 3X Universal Investment Strategy (UISx3) is a leveraged version of our core Universal Investment Strategy (UIS), an evolved, intelligent version of the classic 60/40 equity/bond portfolio that can adapt to current conditions, shifting portfolio weight away from stocks in difficult markets and adding weight to equity in bull runs.The 3x leveraged version of the strategy employs SPXL, TMF and UGLD, which are the leveraged versions of the S&P 500 ETF, the Treasury 20+ year ETF and the Gold ETF. Unlike the base UIS, the leveraged version only uses TMF and UGLD to hedge SPXL exposure.The UISx3 is appropriate for investors who are comfortable taking on higher risks in exchange for the potential for of higher returns. Because leveraged ETFs are used, we recommend allocating no more than 15% of your total portfolio to this strategy.

Strategy: Universal Investment Strategy: Mitigate market drawdowns and preserve capital when markets correct: The Universal Investment Strategy (UIS) is one of our core investment strategies. It is an evolved, intelligent version of the classic 60/40 equity/bond portfolio. Much like the classic portfolio, UIS holds both the S&P 500 index and bonds. However, UIS can intelligently adapt to current conditions by shifting weight away from stocks in difficult markets and adding weight in bullish markets.Instead of using simple bond ETF, UIS uses a sub-strategy, called HEDGE, which can choose between different types of safe-heaven ETFs.The equity/bond (or in our case equity/HEDGE) pair is interesting because most of the time these two asset classes profit from an inverse correlation. If there is a real stock market correction, usually ETFs included in the HEDGE strategy (Treasuries, Gold, etc) are the ‘safe’ assets where money flows to, providing crash protection.

Strategy: US sectors long worst US sectors: Investment Portfolio: A sub-strategy for the U.S. Sector strategy. It goes long the worst performing U.S. sectors assuming they may rebound.

Strategy: US Sector Rotation Strategy: The U.S. Sector strategy allocates dynamically between four long U.S. sector sub-strategies and one short U.S. sector strategy. Each of the four long sub-strategies use different momentum and mean reversion criteria. The short U.S. sector sub-strategy is used as a hedge to limit losses in case of a large market correction.Due to the low correlation of these strategies, the combination creates a strategy with a considerably higher Sharpe Ratio than a simple sector rotation. The addition of the negatively correlated short strategy significantly reduces volatility and drawdowns during difficult market periods.What makes this strategy interesting is that it does not rely on either treasuries or bonds to hedge in times of market stress, it uses the short US sector strategy instead. The hedging mechanism is purely “short equity” and unrelated to whether interest rates rise, a common concern when holding bonds in a portfolio.The strategy uses SPDR sector ETFs, but you can replace these with the corresponding sector ETFs or futures from other issuers.US sectors have historically been good for trend following systems because each sector usually over or under performs for long periods at a time due to longer lasting economic cycles and not just short-term market fluctuations.The economy itself is not a linear stable system, but swings between periods of expansion (growth) and contraction (recession). This results in a series of market cycles which are visualized in the following picture.Source: http://www.nowandfutures.com(Global Business Cycles)Each market cycle favors different industry sectors. The goal of a good working strategy is to choose the best performing sectors while avoiding or even shorting the worst performing sectors.You can read the original strategy whitepaper for more details.

Portfolio: Volatility less than 10%: This portfolio has been optimized for achieving the highest possible return while limiting the historical volatility to 10% or less over the analyzed period with the involved assets. As a reference, the volatility limit of 10% is about two thirds of the volatility, or risk, of the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY).As such it is a conservative Portfolio suited for risk adverse investors with moderate growth expectations.Please note that this portfolio might use leveraged ETF and single stocks. Should these not be allowed in your retirement account please see our 401k and IRS compatible Conservative, Moderate, and Aggressive Risk Portfolios. Contact us for special requirements.

Portfolio: Volatility less than 15%: Mitigate market drawdowns and preserve capital when markets correct: This portfolio has been optimized for achieving the highest possible return while limiting the historical volatility to 15% or less over the analyzed period. As a reference, the volatility limit of 15% is slightly below the historical volatility, or risk, of the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY). This is an aggressive portfolio suited for investors with a relatively high risk tolerance and aggressive growth expectations.Please note that this portfolio might use leveraged ETF and single stocks. Should these not be allowed in your retirement account please see our 401k and IRS compatible Conservative, Moderate, and Aggressive Risk Portfolios. Contact us for special requirements.

Portfolio: Volatility less than 7%: Mitigate market drawdowns and preserve capital when markets correct: This portfolio has been optimized for achieving the highest possible return while limiting the historical volatility to 7% or less over the analyzed period with the involved assets. The volatility limit of 7% equals about half the volatility, or risk, of the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF — TLT.As such it is a very conservative Portfolio suited for very risk adverse investors with conservative growth expectations.Please note that this portfolio might use leveraged ETF and single stocks. Should these not be allowed in your retirement account please see our 401k and IRS compatible Conservative, Moderate, and Aggressive Risk Portfolios. Contact us for special requirements.

Strategy: World Top 4 Strategy: The World Country Top 4 Strategy is a momentum driven strategy that invests in the top four single country ETFs. It will add geographic diversity to your portfolio with significant non-U.S. equity exposure.The strategy consists of four sub-strategies. Each sub-strategy invests in the best country ETF in a specific geographic area (i.e., Africa, Asia, Latin America, etc). These strategies are then combined to yield four country ETFs that come from different geographic segments, thus avoiding overconcentration. So even if one region is outperforming all the other areas, this strategy will still diversify among three additional top performing regions.Like our other equity-based strategies, this strategy is hedged with a sub-strategy (HEDGE) that includes, amongst others, safe heaven assets like treasuries and gold.

Portfolio: Aggressive Risk Portfolio: Recommended for: Capital growth, speculation and young investors.The Aggressive Risk Portfolio is appropriate for an investor with a high risk tolerance and a time horizon longer than 10 years. Aggressive investors should be willing to accept periods of extreme ups and downs in exchange for the possibility of receiving higher relative returns over the long term. A longer time horizon is needed to allow time for investments to recover in the event of a sharp downturn. This portfolio is heavily weighted with stocks which are historically more volatile than bonds.Tobe compatible with most retirement plans, this Portfolio does not include our Maximum Yield Strategy and leveraged Universal Investment Strategy. If you are using a more flexible account you can choose from our unconstrained portfolios in the Portfolio Library.We also offer a version for 401k plans which do not allow individual stocks.

Strategy: NASDAQ 100 Balanced unhedged: The NASDAQ 100 is a sub- strategy that uses proprietary risk-adjusted momentum to pick the most appropriate 4 NASDAQ 100 stocks. It is part for the Nasdaq 100 hedged strategy where it is combined with a variable hedge.

Strategy: NASDAQ 100 Leaders Strategy: The NASDAQ 100 leaders is a sub- strategy that uses proprietary risk-adjusted momentum to pick the most appropriate 4 NASDAQ 100 stocks. It is part for the Nasdaq 100 hedged strategy where it is combined with a variable hedge. $GLD #savings #money

Strategy: Short Term Bond Strategy: The Short Term Bond Strategy is essentially a place to park cash that earns interest. When combined with other higher risk strategies it creates a lower risk portfolio and generally improves the portfolio’s Sharpe ratio. If your broker pays interest on cash balances that is comparable to the current yield of this strategy, you can choose to keep this allocation in cash instead.

Strategy: Dow 30 Strategy: We developed the Dow 30 Top 4 Strategy some years ago together with the Nasdaq 100 strategy. We waited to published it because the Nasdaq 100 Top 4 Strategy was outperforming the Dow Strategy in the technology driven bull market we’ve had in recent years. Going forward however, the Dow 30 Top 4 Strategy could be very beneficial, as stock picking becomes much more important in volatile, sideways moving markets.The performance of the Dow 30 strategy is quite similar to the simpler US Market Strategy, however in volatile markets like this year, the stock picking Dow 30 outperformed. Notably, the February drawdown was only half of the US Market Strategy as the Dow Strategy excludes high volatility stocks.

Strategy: US Market Strategy: The U.S. Market Strategy was designed as an alternative to our Universal Investment Strategy which allocates between SPY (S&P 500 ETF) and TLT (U.S. Treasuries ETF). The equity component of this new strategy switches between SPY (S&P500), QQQ (Nasdaq 100), DIA (Dow 30) and SPLV (S&P 500 low volatility) so it can take advantage of different market conditions. The addition of SPLV provides a good defensive option in times of high market volatility. In addition to U.S. equities, the strategy utilizes a hedge strategy that switches between TLT, TIP, UUP and GLD.The strategy’s backtests performed substantially better than a simple SPY-TLT investment. All of the component ETFs are very liquid with small spreads making them easy to trade with negligible costs.

Portfolio: Moderate Risk Portfolio for 401: Recommended for: Capital accumulation, savers and investors 10–20 years from retirement. The Moderate Risk Portfolio is appropriate for an investor with a medium risk tolerance and a time horizon longer than five years. Moderate investors are willing to accept periods of moderate market volatility in exchange for the possibility of receiving returns that outpace inflation by a significant margin.Tobe compatible with most retirement plans, this Portfolio does not include our Maximum Yield Strategy and leveraged Universal Investment Strategy. If you are using a more flexible account you can choose from our unconstrained portfolios in the Portfolio Library.We also offer a version for plans which do allow single stocks.

Strategy: Leveraged Gold-Currency Strategy: The Leveraged Gold-Currency Strategy takes advantage of the historically negative correlation between gold and the U.S. dollar. It switches between the two assets based on their recent risk adjusted performance enabling the strategy to provide protection against severe gold corrections due to dollar strength. It is an excellent addition to existing equity or bond portfolios as it holds very little correlation to either.This version of the strategy uses inverse leveraged ETFs to generate higher returns, but some retirement accounts are restricted from trading these ETFs. GLD-UUP provides an alternate form of the strategy without leveraged ETFs which also lowers the overall return and volatility.

Portfolio: Aronson Family Taxable Portfolio: Ted Aronson is an asset manager. His family taxable account portfolio has been featured and tracked by MarketWatch.com’s lazy portfolios, maintained by Paul Farrel. The lazy portfolio has done very well prior to 2008–2009 crash.

Portfolio: Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold: Paul Merriman’s Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold. Another Lazy Portfolio that is tracked by MarketWatch.Merriman describes it: The “ultimate” portfolio starts with the S&P 500 index SPX then adds small and equal portions of nine other very carefully selected U.S. and international asset classes, each one being an excellent long-term vehicle for diversifying. When it’s properly done, the result is a low-cost portfolio with massive diversification that will take advantage of market opportunities wherever they are, and at about the same risk as that of the SP 500.”

Portfolio: Coffeehouse Portfolio: The Coffeehouse Portfolio was popularized by financial advisor Bill Schultheis in the best-selling book The Coffeehouse Investor. It is part of what we could call “Lazy Portfolios”.The Coffeehouse Portfolio consists of 7 funds. It starts with a 60/40 stock bond allocation. The 60% in stocks is allocated to a large-cap fund, a large-cap value fund, a small-cap fund, a small-cap value fund, an international fund, and a REIT fund.

Portfolio: Margaritaville Portfolio: The Margaritaville portfolio was proposed by Scott Burns, a popular Dallas Morning News financial columnist. It consists of one part total stock index, one part international stock index, and one part inflation-protected Treasury securities

Portfolio: Dr. Bernstein’s No Brainer Portfolio: Dr. William Bernstein is a physician and neurologist as well as a financial adviser to high net worth individuals. This one’s so simple: Allocate 25% in each of four index funds diversified across basic categories.

Portfolio: Dr. Bernstein’s Smart Money Portfolio: Dr. William Bernstein is a physician and neurologist as well as a financial adviser to high net worth individuals.

Portfolio: Second Grader’s Starter: The Second Grader’s Starter Portfolio is a Lazy Portfolio proposed by Paul Farrell. It was meant as a portfolio solution to a very small investor, with a long investment horizon. Farrell gives an example of 8-year old Kevin who got a $10,000 gift form his gramdmother. With a time horizon of 30+ years, the portfolio uses no load, low-cost index funds. It splits the money into 60% Total Stock Market Index, 30% Total International Stock and 10% Total Bond Market Index.

Portfolio: Yale U’s Unconventional Portfolio: David Swensen is manager of Yale University’s endowment fund. He has addressed how investors should set up and manage their investments in his book, Unconventional Success: A Fundamental Approach to Personal Investment.The Swensen portfolio consists of six core asset class allocations:US equity: 30%Foreign developed equity: 15%Emerging market equity: 5%US REITS: 20%US Treasury bonds: 15%US TIPS: 15%

[logical-invest-asset-allocation]

Reply To: Online Portfolio Builder

Logical Invest Forum: Alex, You guys are awesome. The addition of drawdown makes this a complete tool and a great one at that. By the way, in the Online Portfolio Builder (weekly numbers) vs. Offline Excel Portfolio Builder there will be differences in max. drawdown numbers, but why are there differences in CAGR numbers? For my custom portfolio (comprising of 5 strategies – BRS -25%, MYRS -15%, 3xUIS – 5%, Nasdaq100 – 25%, Gold/Currency – 30%), the online version gives a CAGR of 22% and Max. drawdown of 4.8% and the Excel version gives CAGR of 27.5% and Max. Drawdown of 6.96%. Finally, is there a way you can please add the monthly & annual returns as well as max. drawdown information as a separate tab to the offline Excel version of Portfolio Builder? Thank you so much. Much appreciate every effort you put in towards customer requests. https://goo.gl/2Asu2o #Trading #Investing #Investing #Trading

[logical-invest-asset-allocation]

Reply To: Online Portfolio Builder

Logical Invest Forum: Hello Sunil, thanks for your interest in the tools, appreciate the feedback. The differences are due to different timeframes and granularity between the Excel and Online tool, when looking at performance data both need to be always considered. The Excel tool is based on daily returns of our strategies, while online I can only use the weekly returns to avoid making the tool too slow. This causes two effects, one being a 3 month offset of the timeframe (Excel from 4/25/2008, Online from 1/22/2008, both till last trading day) and a change in granularity which affects especially Volatility and Max DrawDown. The results in CAGR ( and volatility) are basically from the 3 months offset, the difference in MaxDD might need an additional explanation: What is MaxDD actually? There is a realized MaxDrawDown, i.e. the peek-to-valley you see in your account balance when you rebalance monthly, e.g. not considering the unrealized gains and losses, And then there is unrealized DrawDown, the peek-to-valley you observe on a daily, weekly or even intraday when you look at your account including currently invested. Online you see a small weekly DrawDown of 4.8% (e.g. on a weekly level the max “reduction” including unrealized gains/losses), while the Excel tools give you the opportunity to see daily drawdown – much bigger dives of up to 12.4%. See here a previous post including a chart and Excel to explain. More confused now? Good! We´ll always try to make you deep-dive into and reflect on the numbers – there are no easy answers – sorry. Happy to further discuss, Alex https://goo.gl/D1WFhh #Trading #Investing #Investing #Trading