#like its still uncertai

[colorsinautumn]

the way good things happened to me.

[sukibenders]

Jace, sweetie, you never did anything wrong no matter what some in the fandom are saying, and you are entitled to question your mother because even if she proclaims you as her heir, the stark differences between you and your younger siblings are very apparent and when she dies who knows what will happen to the throne you were supposed to sit on, what will happen to you? Especially given that you are now mirroring your mother when she was younger, being anointed as her father's heir but met with uncertainty at every turn because said father did little to reassure her as well as those she would be ruling over. So no, I don't think you're making things more difficult, especially because the questions you are asking also tie into the succession crisis you and your family are currently fighting. Just because you get a little touchy with your mother doesn't make you wrong!

[covid-safer-hotties]

Also preserved in our archive (Daily updates!)

By Adam Piore

A new study from researchers at Mass General Brigham suggests racial disparities and the difficulty in diagnosing the condition may be leading to a massive undercount.

Almost one in four Americans may be suffering from long COVID, a rate more than three times higher than the most common number cited by federal officials, a team led by Boston area researchers suggests in a new scientific paper.

The peer-reviewed study, led by scientists and clinicians from Mass General Brigham, drew immediate skepticism from some long COVID researchers, who suggested their numbers were “unrealistically high.” But the study authors noted that the condition is notoriously difficult to diagnose and official counts also likely exclude populations who were hit hardest by the pandemic but face barriers in accessing healthcare.

“Long COVID is destined to be underrepresented, and patients are overlooked because it sits exactly under the health system’s blind spot,” said Hossein Estiri, head of AI Research at the Center for AI and Biomedical Informatics at Mass General Brigham and the paper’s senior author.

Though the pandemic hit hardest in communities of color where residents had high rates of preexisting conditions and many held service industry jobs that placed them at high risk of contracting the virus, the vast majority of those diagnosed with long COVID are white, non-Hispanic females who live in affluent communities and have greater access to healthcare, he said.

Moreover, many of the patients who receive a long COVID diagnosis concluded on their own that they have the condition and then persuaded their doctors to look into it, he said. As a result, the available statistics we have both underestimate the true number of patients suffering from the condition and skew it to a specific demographic.

“Not all people even know that their condition might be caused or exacerbated by COVID,” Estiri said. “So those who go and get a diagnosis represent a small proportion of the population.”

Diagnosis is complicated by the fact that long COVID can cause hundreds of different symptoms, many of which are difficult to describe or are easily dismissed, such as sleep problems, headaches or generalized pain, Estiri said. According to its formal definition, long COVID occurs after a COVID-19 infection, lasts for at least three months, affects one or more organ systems, and includes a broad range of symptoms such as crushing fatigue, pain, and a racing heart rate.

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention suggested that in 2022 roughly 6.9 percent of Americans had long COVID. But the algorithm developed by Estiri’s team estimated that 22.8 percent of those who’d tested positive for COVID-19 met the diagnostic criteria for long COVID in the 12 months that followed, even though the vast majority had not received an official diagnosis.

To calculate their number, Estiri’s team built a custom artificial intelligence tool to analyze data from the electronic health records of more than 295,000 patients served at four hospitals and 20 community health centers in Massachusetts. The AI program pulled out 85,000 people who had been diagnosed with COVID through June 2022, and then applied a pattern recognition algorithm to identify those that matched the criteria for long COVID in the 12 months that followed.

Some researchers questioned the paper’s conclusions. Dr. Eric Topol, author of the 2019 book “Deep Medicine: How Artificial Intelligence Can Make Healthcare Human Again,” said the medical field is still divided over precisely what constitutes long COVID, and that complicates efforts to program an accurate AI algorithm.

“Since we have difficulties with defining long Covid, using AI on electronic health records may not be a way to make the diagnosis accurately,” said Topol, who is executive vice president of Scripps Research in San Diego. “I’m uncertain about this report.”

Dr. Ziyad Al-Aly, chief of research and development at the VA St. Louis Health Care System, and an expert on long COVID, called the 22.8 percent figure unrealistically high and said the paper “grossly inflates” its prevalence.

“Their approach does not account for the fact that things happen without COVID (not everything that happens after COVID is attributable to COVID)— resulting in significant over-inflation of prevalence estimate,” he wrote via email.

Estiri said the research team took several measures to validate its AI algorithm, retroactively applying it to the charts of 800 people who had received a confirmed long COVID diagnosis from their doctor to see if it could predict the condition. The algorithm accurately diagnosed them more than three quarters of the time.

The algorithm scanned the records for patients who had a COVID diagnosis prior to July 2022, then looked for a constellation of symptoms that could not be explained by other conditions and lasted longer than two months. To refine the program, they conferred with clinicians and assigned different weights to different symptoms and conditions based on how often they are associated with long COVID, which made them more likely to be identified as potential sufferers.

Now that the initial paper has been published, the team is building a new algorithm that can be trained to detect the presence of long COVID in the medical records of patients without a confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis so the condition can be confirmed by clinicians and they can get the care they need, Estiri said.

But the most exciting part of the new research, Estiri said, is its potential to facilitate follow-up research and help refine and individualize treatment plans. In the months ahead, Estiri and his co-principal investigator Shawn Murphy, chief research information officer at Mass General Brigham, plan to ask a wide variety of questions by querying the medical records in their sample. Does vaccination make a patient more or less likely to develop the condition? How about treatment with Paxlovid? Do the symptoms patients develop differ based on those factors? What are the genomic characteristics of patients who are suffering from cardiovascular symptoms as opposed to those whose symptoms are associated with lung function or those who crash after exercising? Can they identify biomarkers in the bloodstream that could be used for diagnosis?

They have already prepared studies on vaccine efficacy, the effect of age as a risk factor, and whether the risk of long COVID increases with the fourth and fifth infection, Estiri said. “We were waiting for this paper to come out,” he said. “So now we can actually go ahead with the follow-up studies. With this cohort we can do things that no other study has been able to do, and I’m hoping it can really help people.”

Study link: www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666634024004070

[k1ng-ej]

Sudden

Leon Kennedy angst

Note: id like to apologize in advance, lol. this has been on my mind for a couple days and of course i write it at 5 am, and sleep deprived. anyway, enjoy, or cry, its okay. (requests are open!!)

~

On an ordinary Tuesday afternoon, your world suddenly shattered. It hit you unexpectedly, leaving you reeling, bewildered, and deeply wounded. You and Leon were both part of the same organization, occupying different roles, and had been in a relationship for some time. You made a point to keep your professional and personal lives distinct, only showing affection through subtle gestures like holding hands and exchanging tender glances from across the room. 

It wasn't until after a particularly perilous mission that Leon truly reflected on the inherent dangers of his work. There clearly hadn't been much thought behind his reckless actions. Fear gripped him, and it was this fear that hurt the most. He worried that the closeness of your relationship could become a weapon against him, that it might be used to exploit his vulnerabilities. Despite these fears, Leon found immense joy and fulfillment in being with you. Initially closed off when you first met, he eventually allowed himself to bloom, revealing his deepest insecurities to you. You understood him intimately, just as he did you; you were beautifully intertwined. Your embraces felt like the completion of a intricate puzzle, as if you were truly meant for each other. Your hands fit together seamlessly, his was made to hold yours, and his lips were destined to kiss yours.

With Leon, everything felt effortless. He instinctively knew how to lift your spirits, recognized your favorite comfort foods, and understood that basic flowers wouldn't cut it for you. He was aware that verbal apologies weren't your style; instead, you expressed your remorse through acts of service—doing his laundry, organizing his space, or preparing his favorite meal. It all seemed flawless.

Leon was overcome with fear. Fear that you were too close, or perhaps that he was too close to you. The prospect of losing you weighed heavily on his mind, prompting him to act on those fears. It was an ordinary workday—the worst possible moment for such a confrontation—when he stepped into your office, his expression one you recognized all too well. You instantly knew that whatever he was about to say would not be good.

What you never anticipated was his desire to end the relationship. A wave of pain surged through you—your heart cracked, your stomach churned, and nausea swept over you. Your thoughts spiraled as you sat there, paralyzed in disbelief. You longed to ask why, to plead with him not to go through with this. All you wanted was to cradle his face in your hands and promise him that no matter the struggles he faced, you would stand by his side.

Before you could even utter a word, he walked out, leaving you alone in your office with your heart shattered. In the days that followed, you made every attempt to reach out—through texts and in person—but he reverted to the distant, unapproachable Leon you had encountered when you first met. Confused and hurt, you couldn't fathom why he was shutting you out. No matter how hard you tried, he always turned away, cold and indifferent. He packed up all your belongings from his apartment and returned them to you, handing back his key. In that moment, you realized the painful truth: it was truly over, for good.

He was now a complete stranger to you, despite the fact that he once held the key to your heart, exploring its deepest corners and uncovering all of your hidden secrets. The memories of his kisses still haunt you, their warmth and familiarity etched in your mind, and you often find yourself reminiscing about how perfectly his hand fit in yours, a connection that felt almost fated; it’s as if the universe intended for you two to find each other. Each time you catch a glimpse of him, your heart pulls with an ache that intertwines longing and uncertainty, causing you to wonder if the moments you shared held any significance for him at all, or if they were just fleeting memories in the passage of time. Despite the hope that would rise each morning as you rolled over, yearning to see his sleeping face—one of those rare moments of tranquility when he seemed free of burdens—you eventually realized that he was never there, and it took an entire year, maybe even more, for you to fully let go and accept that when you passed each other in the hallway, he felt like nothing more than a distant memory of someone who once kissed you softly and passionately.

[iveneverbeenmorestressedinmylife]

it feels like I'm going fucking insane I just finished the episode "One day, one room" and i was fucking astounded. It left me with my mouth open, literally peak television. Seeing this side of house, seeing him finally open up for once, seeing him say "I don't know", the novelty of seeing him experience the fact that connection comes with uncertainess. He made that human connection and he doesn't know if it helped her or not

The DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TIME HOUSE GOES TO THE JOGGING PARK TO GET AWAY FROM CUDDY AND ITS OLAYED FOR LAUGHS AND THEN THE SAME LOCATION IS SHOWN FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE BOTH LITERALLY AND FIGURATIVELY WHEN HE TAKES THE PATIENT THERE

THE CHANGE. THE FUCKING CHANGE OF THE MOOD OF THE TONE OF THE WHOLE EPISODE. THE CHARACTERIZATION GODDDDD

This literally had a huge effect of me this episode was touching

ANYWAYS PEOPLE ON REDDIT DONT LIKE IT???? AM I INSANE???? AM I DUMB???? AM I ILLITERATE IN MEDIA??? AM I GOING INSANE??? IS THIS NOT ONE OF THE BEST HOUSE MD EPISODES????? im asking you because youre the only house md person i know on this hellsite

Well, your first mistake was taking what people on reddit say seriously and letting their opinion affect the way YOU think about this episode and how it affected you!!!!! One day one room is indeed, an amazing episode, it really is one of those times where we see House truly open up. One of the rare times where he opens up to someone other than Wilson, or Cuddy, someone who doesn't actually even really know him. And he opens up for the patients benefit!! He only does it because she asked him to!! He doesn't have much to gain from this but she asked for it, she basically begged for someone to connect with her pain and he happened to be the one she chose for the task. Even tho this sort of thing does NOT come naturally to him at all.

Theres just something about how uncertain he is about all of this too. The way he asks his team for help (tell her your life sucked - it didn't, tell her nothing bad has ever happened to you - but it did, dont tell her anything. and don't these answers say some interesting things about the people who gave them), the way he settles for a half truth at first and almost loses her trust because of it. The way he eventually just lets it happen. The way he is still so uncertain about whether he did the Right thing even when the impact of his actions seems to be mostly positive. The way he is still not sure if he truly helped her or if he just made a traumatised girl remember the horrible things that happened to her. The way he had to unearth his own past to do that (did it make any difference? Wouldn't it have been better to just forget everything?). The way he is clearly bothered by it. "Because i don't know." What a way to end this episode. All of that uncertainty, the fact that human connections are one of those things that he will never be able to fully understand or control, the fact that he will never know if he made the right choice. Its honestly been a few months since i last watched the earlier seasons but you made me think about this ep again and yeah you are so right, this is probably one of the best house md episodes. Me (insane) to you (also insane): you are not insane and neither am i. Take my hand. Strangers on reddit don't know shit.

[noahschnappinfs]

That’s just so interesting for him to be like ‘I’m the boy so I make the first move’ considering he’s obviously a gay person, I think that’s what’s also really funny about this now and even without that context of his identity it’s still funny. The delivery his uncertainess the way he glances at the camera he’s so silly.

in the video from his yt channel, i swear he’s so funny without even trying and his delivery is hilarious because of the way he looks at the camera and all that awkward/shy-ish gestures he does lol

and now in that variety video, to me its so weird because right before that question, he went on a rant about how he loves to drive his car and then when asked if he would ask somebody out, he gives such an awkward vibe that i think they even noticed and cropped it in such a weird way and they added right away the next answer without a proper pause.

well at least he’s consistent with the fact that he’d make the first move so all the guys need to be aware ☝🏻

[odkrycia-nauce-i-foldery-online]

Pioneering discoveries in the natural world of China

Verification and research

text based on scientific notes. posted and written by Tomasz Pietrzak, biologist and scientific author

What are the likelihoods of the existence of undescribed large animals? The discovery of one or another species is still viable (Popular Science magazine-1959). We are on the track of unbelievably rare inhabitants. Wild territories harbor yet unrecognized animals. Experience of science and adventure is searching for those uniquines in wild China. Indiana Jones of zoology is in quest of those remnant populations. This article is groundbreaking notes, intro to the innovative approach to zoological inventory.

Curious case is focusing on investigation of poorly known mammals. As for Sichuan, there are recorded local variants of Tolai hare and Lepus oiostolus. The area is inhabited by another species, by the Chinese hare (Lepus sinensis). According to records provided by Wilson in 1913, it perhaps, that in central Sichuan (somewhere in Red Basin) also occurs unknown species of hares. In locality what is now Hubei, Wilson 1913 recorded a peculiar species of wild pig or yeh chu'u estimated as Sus leucomystax, which could be the same animal as Japanese wild boar. The creature is occurring through east China and stands out by pale contrail on both sides of the head. As for animals, there were many in numbers in the Lower Yangtze delta. In Hubei this being is represented by the local race, living in mountainous habitats. From west Sichuan there are recorded wild boar from the species Sus scrofa moupinensis. More research is needed for clarify the taxonomic status of rare leporids and suids.

Another record is an unknown animal believed to be even more interesting. From the publication named Reports on Trade at the Treaty Ports dated in 1871 we have important sources about carnivore unknown to science. In Manchuria, in the late nineteenth century, there were records of a very large fox, which was called hsüan-hui. This creature was proven to exist in real life by provided pelts. The animal was extremely rare and could harmonize with bizzare canids. The hsüan-hui was recorded to possess long-haired fur with a grizzly-brown coat, and its unusual size is also highlighted. Perhaps this so-called "very large fox" is a yet unknown relic species or something like Canis familiaris. After all, this purported animal, most probably, could be labelled as fox species with enormous size (Vulpes genus?). It is charactered as relic of pleistocene megafauna, that could survive until recent times in this part of the world. In according to some authorities peculiar name of manchurian fox are linked to fur of a variety of half-wild dog from Manchuria, but this is field for discussion. If the animal called hsüan-hui  is still extant in remote parts of this land, preserve them. It could will travel a very long way, from Manchuria to European zoos. We still have scarce knowledge about those creatures, and the results of taxonomic identity is not yet confirmed and is only a hypothesis.

Around the Wanchinshan Mountains of Guizhou, scientists reported a forgotten small felid, tabby coloured creature with a short tail. This creature is now-called as Prionailurus ingrami?. The animal was described firstly by Bonhote in 1903. Currently, it is called enigmatic taxa by systematics controversy. It is evaluated by locals as a shrewd animal. Fur of this small cat was brought to Mr. Zappey at Changyuangsien in what is now Hubei, dated January 1909. Little is known about the natural history of the given carnivore, but this extremely rare small race of felid family inhabits mountainous central China (also from Guizhou massifs) and is almost unknown to science. The species is so distinct from other cats that occur in China, that scientists had no hesitation for describing a new species. Currently, the animal is known as a synonym or subspecies of leopard cat, but its taxonomic position is uncertain. What is more important, furthermore specimens from wilderness should be examined morphologically and genetically.

Body parts of allegedly man-bear come from the Julong Mountains, situated in Zhejiang Province. Human-like animal turned out near the stream of the area between mountains and human settlements. The monkey was killed in 23 day of May, 1957 by villagers in muddy farmland. More in-depth research and identification of the specimen was concluded by the author in the journal Cryptozoology. Research revealed that the unrecognized monkey is similar to China’s Huangshan (Macaca speciosa). Cryptozoological monkey, is known better as Yuan. The being is similar to julong creature in size and coat pattern, and was registered in Annals of Suichang Country. Unknown primates perhaps occur in this part of the world. We have no more information about such species or populations.

In one of the volumes of Journal of the North China Branch of the Royal Asiatic Society, published in 1927 we have some interesting information. In Henan, the stuff called "Waste of Yin" placed in credit by James Menzies has been gathered for a few horns of ungulates, including one deer species unknown to science.

Unknown animals may still be lurking in both Central China, such as what is now called Hubei and most eastwards in Jiangxi or to the north in remote swamps of Shandong. We have another unidentified carnivore mammal the size of a cat with beautiful white fur. The animal was recorded from Manchuria by the name chu'an'shu in 1871 in accordance with earlier mentioned publication focused on the fur trade industry. This peculiar living being is almost legendary, but it is recognized as a truly undescribed mammal.

How many unknown animals are there in wild parts of China? In the book China: Social and Economic Conditions from 1912, there is record from Gansu, and is based on fragmentary skins of a "blue" bear of unknown species. For today's science, the creature is defined as a subspecies of Ursus arctos. Quite interesting is the purported existence of a very large antelope called by locals - mingtsung yang in north of the Yichang, in the range separating the basins of the Yangtze and Han rivers. In 1888 european botanist and explorer- Auqustine Henry searched the range in the quest of animals.  Its size is almost as the cow and the animals possess the white mane on its nape. Author informed that the animal is found in the remote regions of the highlands. The researcher was keed to get some specimens, but those which were acquired were insufficient for scientific purposes. Later investigation carried out by taxonomist, Père Heude in a place known as Sikanei, revealed the creature to be a peculiar species of serow, Capricornis argyrochetus. Even more interesting is the presence in the range, the wild species of horse, in size and look of wild ass. Some of these creatures existed in the past in the region, and the author is sure that animals corresponding to descriptions of natives can be found in the range. No more information has been obtained about this wild and unknown species of very rare equid. More projects could clarify the status of undescribed species. 

Finally, we are able to conclude that unknown animals and populations still prowl the remote and wild regions of China. Biological samples and folknotes could reveal the mysteries of natural history. Text is based on scientific review from two recent years. More to come about great zoological discoveries in further research. By this first-hand and original article we provided unique data for more investigations. Posted in early of January 2022 by Enviro Challenges Consulting and bachelor scientist. contact wit author u/echlleaguescientific. Publication is produced in Poland/EU. Comments are kindly welcome. Text is under Creative Commons license. Open Access article.

/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

The_Match_Maker·2 yr. ago

The one thing that stands out the most here is the date of the reference material. That the most recent one is itself 63 years old, is telling, as much development has been had in the intervening years/decades/centuries since some of these sightings were documented.

There are more people, and more environmental destruction, today than there was in the 19th century. As such, it is difficult to assess the likelihood of the presence of current-day cryptids from such information.

While the search is worthwhile, one might question if the recollections of the past are as well.

[volleychumps]

if you write for ushijima (if you don’t just ignore this lol) could you do one where he’s afraid he’s too boring or not affectionate for his s/o but they reassure him they love him how he’s is

My first Wakatoshi!!!<3 he’s one of my favorites he doesn’t get enough love tbh:(

Must I Prove It, Then? (Ushijima x reader)

Words: 1560

Warnings: None 

------------------------------

“Tendou Satori you better share your Cheerios with Semi or else. Can we maintain peace on the bus this time? Please?” 

“Hand it over, loser.”

“Pry them from my cold dead hands.” 

You sigh as you do another headcount, your boyfriend standing behind you in a guard-like manner without really meaning to, your position as both his manager and girlfriend lacking any solid boundary between the two. 

Ushijima blinks when Goshiki offers to carry your bags to the bus for you, blinking a second time when you accept with a thankful smile, ruffling his hair afterwards. 

“Thank you Goshiki-Kun!” 

“Anything for you, Y/N-senpai!” 

“Since when are you close with our first year?” Ushijima’s deep voice makes you jump a little, mostly because you weren’t used to hearing it that often, as you watch Goshiki easily haul both of your overnight bags into the bus. 

You shrug, smiling a little before pecking his chiseled jaw from your height, voice teasing as you start to follow Tendou and his shit-eating grin. 

“It’s not like you were going to offer, were you?” Your voice was light and joking as you boarded, motioning for Ushijima to follow, but he doesn’t. Not yet anyway, seeming to be rooted to his place in the pavement as realization dawns onto the stoic boy. 

Was he...not enough for you? 

“Oi. We can’t exactly get to the prelims without your famous ass, right?” Tendou calls from the window, causing you and many other team members to share a facepalm at the lack of the redhead’s filter. Ushijima jogs to climb on, taking his seat next to you as you slap your forehead, forgetting something. 

“Hey, love? Mind swapping seats with me so I can go over the plays with Goshiki just to make sure he knows them?” 

You scratch the back of your head at his responding head tilt, making you hold back your gush at how adorable that was. 

“I’ll still be here next to you! Besides, you like sleeping while you can to make sure you’re all rested, right?” 

Ushijima shuffles out of his aisle seat to sit in the window one when you emerge, Tendou instigating unrealistic drama as you flip him off, high-fiving Semi afterwards. 

“Did the power-couple have a fight? Should I come up and help you lovebirds couple counsel?” 

“You’re sitting in the back all by yourself. Take a wild guess on why you’re single.” 

Ushijima watches as you laugh along with a smirking Semi, looking down at your intertwined hands as he strokes his thumb against your knuckle. 

Had he...ever been able to make you laugh like that? 

Wakatoshi hardly slept a wink the whole ride there, thoughts for once, spinning with something other than volleyball. 

-------------------------

“Y/N-senpai-!” 

“I’ll bring her bags.” 

The chilly atmosphere settled over the team as Tendou over-dramatically shivers, and you bring a hand up to your neck, frowning at the off-aura of your boyfriend. Goshiki remained frozen in place as Ushijima plucks them from his grasp, wondering if this was his last night to live as he watches his captain enter the inn first.

“Tendou, did you piss in his cheerios?” Semi mutters as you flick his ear, irritated as you motion for the team to hurry up and follow in suit to their captain to enter the inn, Semi rubbing his ear in irritation as the team files in. 

“Quiet doesn’t equate to scary, people. Get a move on, and don’t talk bad about your captain.” 

“You mean your lover?” 

“Tendou, I’ll forbid any and all snacks on the bus-” 

“Awh~” 

Dinner was quite an experience. You sweatdrop at the large pile of protein on your plate as Ushijima eats one piece of meat, putting two on your plate for every one he eats as you try to stop him from doing so, a blushing mess. 

“Wakatoshi, you usually eat like a race horse. You have to keep your strength up for your performance tomorrow.” The team advisor says worriedly, adjusting his glasses as Ushijima shrugs, continuing his actions as you put a hand on his arm gently. 

“Please eat until you’re satisfied. Okay?” 

“Booooo Y/N’s trying to sabotage us-” 

“Strike two, Satori!” 

“Ohhhh shit she pulled out your real name.” Semi snickers alongside Goshiki as the rehead wilts. Meanwhile, you watch as Ushijima nods once, not talking at all as you arch a brow. Even if he didn’t talk much, he still typically made small talk at meals with you, cracking a smile now and then at something you said. 

Something was definitely up. 

After dinner, you washed up after ensuring that Shirabu and Semi would keep the rowdiness to a minimum in their shared rooms, walking down the hall to your own singular room to see Ushijima standing in front of it. You continue to dry your hair as you slip your key card in, startling him slightly as you open your door, offering him a small smile gently. 

“And to what do I owe this pleasure?” 

“Can’t I...say goodnight to you?” 

You blink, previous suspicious confirmed as you pull the tall boy into your room by his arm, making sure the hallways were empty as you did so. You cross your arms, ignoring the foreign look of surprise that crosses the captain’s face as he now stands in the middle of your hotel room. 

“Alright.” You start softly, slinging the damp towel on a nearby chair. “What’s up?” 

His head tilts again. “What do you mean?” 

“You’re acting strange. And that’s not good.” You approach him, sitting down on the edge of your bed before motioning for him to sit. Ushijima sits down with a fridgidness in his movements as you begin to pull your hair up. 

Do you not see him as a man? Why would you just let him into your-?

“I don’t like it.” your voice snaps him out of his thoughts, and Ushijima lifts his head slightly to look over at your eyes downcast at your twiddling thumbs. “You seem...different. Like you’re trying to force yourself to be something you’re not.”

His chest twinges when you lift your head, the saddest expression he’s ever seen crossing the beautiful features he loved so much. 

“Did I do something wrong?” Your voice cracks, and so does Ushijima’s wall he had built around his feelings. 

“No.” 

“Then what?” You urge softly, and Ushijima carefully takes one of your hands in both of his, pulling it into his lap as he breathes in a shaky sigh. A sigh that was unusual for the usual confident, number one spiker in the nation. 

“I...feel like you deserve better.” Your silence makes him continue, his thumbs stroking your hand as you listen intently. “I’m boring, aren’t I? Tendou’s an idiot, but he can make you laugh. Goshiki is innocent, but he’s still more affectionate than me. Even Semi...it seems like he’s more trustworthy to you.” 

His hands tighten around yours. “Don’t you ever think that?” 

Your free hand moves to cup Ushijima’s jaw, lifting it from its’ downcast position as his usual fierce gaze was now brimmed with insecurity and uncertainess. 

“Never. Those thoughts never cross my mind.” You say, feeling Ushijima relax into your palm, eyes closing as you swallow, continuing your rare heart-to-heart with your boyfriend. 

“I love you, Wakatoshi. No one else. I love how your secretly protective of me, without even realizing you’re doing it. You do it because you care. I love how you always make sure to text me every night even though we see each other almost every day. Even if you’re quiet, I can still feel how much you care through your actions.” You ramble, eyes determined to make your boyfriend feel loved. 

“But do you know what I love the most?” 

Ushijima’s prompting stare makes you smile widely, kissing his cheek. 

“Everything. The whole thing, and all your little quirks. It’s you, okay?” You breathe out a shaky sigh as Ushijima’s hands find your waist, pulling you closer as your arms wrap around his neck, pulling you into a tight embrace. 

“It’s always been you.” 

“Y/N.” Ushijima digs his face into the crook of your neck as you smile over his shoulder. “I...feel the same.” 

You laugh at his aloofness, pulling back slightly to brush your nose with his. “Care to show me?” 

His lips press brush againast yours before you feel him pull back, standing abruptly. 

“I really shouldn’t um, be here.” 

You grin at his flustered expression, pulling him back down with a wink. “I know you’re a rule follower, love, but maybe...” You look away, biting your lip. “You can stay with me tonight? Just to uh...cuddle?” 

Ushijima blinks, and you’re worried he’s crashed before he nods curtly, and you laugh excitedly before climbing into bed, feeling his weight dip into the other side of the bed. 

“Y/N.” 

“Hm?” 

“Can I kiss you?” 

You blush, feeling Ushijima pull you close with one arm as the other pulls the lampstring, smiling when he starts with kisses on your cheek, peppering kisses until his lips brush yours.

“I thought you’d never ask, love.” 

As he does so, hearts hammering in both your chests, you realize this is the best night of your life with the words he whispers against yours lips. 

“I love you.” 

[sp-ud]

I was thinking about your posts/anons earlier, and now I’m genuinely wondering the dream smp would benefit from an official hiatus. Like not necessarily banning cc from streaming on it, just taking a break from all lore to get their shit together, figure out cohesive plans and how they want to proceed, actually communicating, and then coming back full force with new/better content and communication. At the moment it feels like we have an unofficial hiatus (especially considering Ranboo and Tubbo who usually still stream are doing other stuff rn) so I wonder if making it official might help themselves and to manage fan expectations.

yeah like. instead of this uncertainess about whats going on behind the scenes and if stuff is going on behind the scenes, we get some assurance that stuff is going on and that it will come back, but rn its gonna be pretty chill.

[carmenlire]

When the Lights Go Out

read on ao3

Standing in front of the drink cart, Alec pours one glass of red and then another. Thankful for his vision rune and the dozen candles lit around the living room, he’s careful not to overfill the wine glasses. He doesn’t turn immediately back to the couch. Instead, he looks through the open french doors to the rest of New York and his mouth softens as he takes in his favorite city during a blackout.

It’s different like this. There’s still some noise but nowhere near the frenetic cacophony that his corner of the world is known for. It’s like he’s the only person in the world and he relishes the silence that’s just shy of being oppressive.

Shaking his head a little to clear his thoughts, Alec sets the now empty bottle next to its predecessors, Alec raises one glass to his lips and carries the other to where his husband sits.

His surefooted rune comes in handy, too, and he’s careful not to trip on the edge of the rug, not to run into the corner of the coffee table that’s been pushed out of the way for the night-- he knows thanks to sleepily stumbling through the loft in the mornings just how wicked those corners can be to vulnerable flesh.

“Thank you, darling.” Magnus hums a little as he takes the second glass and he pats the empty space on the floor next to him. He smiles up at him. His unglamoured eyes catch the candlelight, only a thin edge of gold surrounding bottomless black and Alec’s heart clutches, just a little, at seeing Magnus so content and open and welcoming. It’s the most natural thing in the world for Alec to return that grin as he lowers himself to the floor in front of the couch.

It’s piled high with blankets-- their very own pillow fort. Reaching an arm behind Magnus, Alec sweeps a thumb over his shoulder and pulls his husband just the tiniest bit closer.

He noses along Magnus’s hair. There’s laughter in his voice when he asks in a low voice, “You’re telling me there’s no way you can magic some lights in here? Not even a little lamp?”

Magnus, conspicuously coy, looks down and takes a deep drink of his wine. While he can’t see it, Alec can hear the smile in Magnus’s voice, just knows that he’s biting his amusement futilely in check.

“Well,” Magnus starts thoughtfully, in that meandering tone that Alec loves so much. “I suppose I could wave a hand and have the electricity up and running in the loft but where’s the fun in that?” With those words, he turns and looks up at Alec and shakes his head, this time fond, as he sees the impish glint in his husband’s gaze.

But then it eases into something serious and Alec’s attention sharpens. Magnus’s eyes turn unseeing and it’s an expression Alec knows well. His love is lost in the past and thankfully, it looks like he’s willing to bring Alec along on this trip down memory lane.

“There was a time, you know, when this was par for the course.” Magnus turns so that he’s facing Alec more directly. His legs are tucked under him, his robe slipping open to reveal skin turned golden by the scant candles strewn around the room. Alec brings a knee up and ducks closer to hear Magnus who has grown quiet, contemplative, in a way he seldom allows himself to become in the company of anyone else.

“When I was a child, I was very good at roaming the woods surrounding our village. By moonlight, on a cloudy night, it didn’t matter. I knew my way intuitively. I knew by the way a branch snapped if it was a tiger or an orangutan. I could find my way home blindfolded. The stillness was all I knew.”

The low light laps at Magnus, makes him seem ancient and unbelievably young at once. Not for the first time, Alec’s struck by Magnus’s past-- it’s nothing bad, just another reminder that the man next to him has depths that he might still be learning a millennia from now.

It’s a blessing Alec doesn’t take for granted.

“And then I moved. Nowhere for long enough to make friends, for someone to find me. I ended up in London, though, in oh-- the mid eighteenth century? It was a filthy place and dank. At least my corner of it was. You could hear the rats at the end of an alley bickering, make out the conversation through walls thin as plaster.”

Magnus smiles and there’s something fond in it even if the rest of the emotion lurking in the edges is aching sentiment. “And then gas lamps started popping up and the factories were built and you’d hear the engines of these behemoth machines that never turned off. The coal always needed carted, the steel tempered.”

“London during the Industrial Revolution was a sight, Alexander. You’d have hated it.” Magnus laughs a little and his eyes flick up to meet Alec’s. “You like order, darling, and London was a well-oiled machine-- but it was dirty and a labyrinth of opportunity. It took me years to learn its underbelly, for it to become a home that was as familiar as the jungle in Batavia once was.” He shakes his head a little, mockingly dismayed. “You’d have been pickpocketed before you could call out for a constable.”

Alec rolls his eyes, though he has to admit what he’s learned about that particularly era leaves him with a lot to be desired. “Whatever,” he huffs and he’s mostly mollified when Magnus leans close and lays a smacking kiss against his cheek before settling back.

He places his empty wine glass on the floor next to them and turns his full attention to Alec. Alec shifts a little and sighs, content, when Magnus moves until he’s resting his head against his chest, an arm slung low over Alec’s middle.

“I know you shadowhunters love your technology and are always looking for the next gadget but there’s something to be said for sitting in complete silence. It’s like you’re the only person in the world, like the world is spinning just for you,” Magnus whispers and the words catch against Alec’s chest, an eerie echo of his earlier thoughts that he relishes.

Magnus laughs a little. He runs an absent finger over Alec’s side in a random pattern and Alec tries his damnedest to still a shudder at the touch.

“Did you know the first night I had a refrigerator, I didn't sleep a wink?”

It takes Alec a moment to register the words but when he does he can’t stop his little noise of confusion. “Why,” he asks, bemused and interested.

He feels Magnus smile. “Because, darling, it made noise. The lack of humming that makes the loft seem as still as a tomb right now? That was my normal. With the noise of the ice box permeating my residence at the time, it was too loud. It kept me up all night.”

Alec frowns. “You’re kidding right?”

“Oh, Alexander. You can’t quite comprehend what life was like before everything was on, on, on. While I am a man of change and progress, it’s easy for anyone-- especially immortals-- to become stuck in their ways. CDs were popular when Ragnor finally broke down and purchased a record player. But the mundanes were just as bad,” he throws in demurely.

Alec’s voice is droll as he replies, “How so?”

“There was mass anxiety when electricity was first installed in homes. People thought it produced vapors that would be harmful if inhaled. Some people employed servants to waft the fumes away.”

“You’re making that up,” Alec says decisively. He looks down at Magnus with a stern look. “You saw that in a Downton Abbey episode.”

He’s expecting Magnus to grow chagrined and recant. Instead, his husband laughs out loud and pulls Alec in for a kiss that’s as intense as it is short. When he breaks away, he pokes a figure in Alec’s chest. “No, Alexander-- you saw it in a Downton Abbey episode. I lived through it and found that detail added a layer of authenticity to an already wonderful period drama.”

Taking the correction in stride, Alec slouches against the couch. “You’ve lived such a life, babe. I can’t imagine seeing such change and just rolling with the punches.”

“You don’t have to imagine it, darling. You’ll be living it soon enough.”

There’s a gravitas in Magnus’s tone that feels a lot like censure. Alec looks over. Magnus’s eyes are clear, his stare direct. It’s not quite a challenge but Alec shakes his head slowly and lets the smile widen just a little around the corners of his mouth.

He reaches out and gently uses his thumb to pull Magnus’s bottom lip out from where he’d been biting down on it. It’s a little tick that doesn't emerge often and only ever around Alec.

It happens when Magnus is worried that Alec’s unhappy, as if there’s a world where that’s even possible when he’s Mr. Lightwood-Bane.

“Don’t put words in my mouth, Magnus,” Alec says softly. Their eyes don’t stray from each other as he continues, “It’s an opportunity most couldn’t dream of and one that I’m eager to experience. There’s a whole world out there waiting for me, us-- an entire eternity. I count it a blessing from Raziel that I’ll live to see such change and maybe, one day, tell someone about it in such fond, awestruck tones. There’s bad with living forever-- but there’s also a lot of good if you let yourself embrace it.”

Magnus is quiet for a moment and Alec lets him have whatever time he needs. Alec will be fifty two this year but he still looks the same as the day he took his vows. This conversation is nothing new and Alec is more than willing to assuage whatever guilt or worry that eats at Magnus whenever he thinks Alec isn’t completely, incandescently happy to have a million lifetimes to spend at his side.

“You’re always surprising me, Alec.”

A gentle kiss that’s more a whisper of intent and then it warms, turning all-consuming. Magnus laughs as Alec urges him to his back, the mountain of pillows and blankets more than comfortable. It’s a sound that Alec promised himself decades ago that he’d spend the rest of his life chasing and as he swallows the sound for his own, he thinks that maybe a power outage isn’t the worst thing in the world.

Not whenever it gives him such a wonderful excuse to ravish his husband. Between clearing his inbox and spending an evening drinking wine and talking with his husband, there's no contest, not even a hint of uncertainty in how Alec would choose to spend his time.

Hours later, when they’re wrapped around each other and sleeping quite soundly, Alec grunts as Magnus pokes him in the stomach.

“Go back to sleep, babe.” His voice slurs but he doesn’t care, can’t when Magnus’s is a warm weight over him. The best damned blanket he’s ever had, Alec thinks blearily.

“Darling, the electricity has turned back on. The lights are blinding me.”

They’d left a lamp on in their bedroom so that they’d know when the power returned. With the small sliver of his brain churning, Alec barely thinks for a moment before he’s grunting again, an intelligible sound that he knows Magnus has taken great pains to become fluent in over the years.

“Then turn them off.” He rouses himself enough to kiss the top of Magnus’s hair before he’s melting back into the bed, already falling back asleep. “Let’s keep the power off for a few more hours. I don't want to share you with the world again just yet.”

He feels Magnus smile against his chest. “Whatever you say, Alexander,” he whispers and Alec feels the charge in the air as his husband no doubt waves a hand and turns the lamp off-- as he leaves the electricity off until morning.

In the stillness, Alec feels like he and Magnus are the only two people in the world. It’s a feeling that’s no less potent for the way he always feels like that, like the world could burn but everything would be alright, if only he and Magnus were left.

Falling back asleep, the quiet wraps around them and seems to sigh, the darkness a welcome reprieve and an escape.

[joshuajacksonlyblog]

Stablecoin Analysis: Panacea to Crypto Volatility or Disaster Waiting to Happen

Volatility is ubiquitous in the world of cryptocurrencies. The prices of cryptocurrencies swing wildly, sometimes within a 24-hour period. As a result, some cryptocurrency projects have attempted to create the so-called “stablecoin.”

The Need for Stablecoins

The price volatility of crypto species is anathema to many conservative mainstream investors. Wild price swings pose significant risks to profits and the security of funds. Crypto startups are also greatly affected by volatility. A company may conduct its ICO, raising $1 million in XYZ tokens. By the following week, XYZ tokens can decline by 50 percent, putting the company’s plans at risk.

One of the pillars of success of a business is the ability to forecast expenses accurately. With volatile crypto prices, cost forecasts become virtually impossible. Thus, the need for stablecoins; cryptocurrencies whose values are tethered to external assets, thus providing some form of stability, has become a much sought-after solution in the crypto ecosystem.

How Stablecoins Work

At its basic level, a stablecoin is a cryptocurrency that maintains a steady value based on an external asset. This external asset can be a fiat currency like the USD, or another crypto like ETH, or a set of smart contract protocols. The purpose of these external assets in the stablecoin paradigm is to create a monetary policy that controls supply, which keeps the value of the stablecoin fixed.

Based on the three types of assets mentioned above, there are three classes of stablecoins: fiat-collateralized, crypto-collateralized, and non-collateralized. According to Leo Bosankic, there are about 19 stablecoin cryptocurrency projects in existence which include Tether, TrueUSD, Basecoin, and BitShares. Others also include Stably, Kowala, and BitUSD.

For collateralized stablecoins, each coin in existence is theoretically backed by an equivalent or higher number of fiat or cryptocurrency. By so doing, liquidity is never a problem, and the principle of the coin holding a stable value vis-à-vis the fiat/crypto holds true. In a recent interview with Bitcoinist, co-founder and CTO of TrustToken, Rafael Cosman explained the economics behind TrueUSD. According to him, the “minting” of new TrueUSD coins is based on the availability of a corresponding fiat amount in the custody of the escrow account of its partners.

In the case of crypto-collateralized stablecoins, a higher amount of the crypto on which the stablecoin is based must be held to ensure stability. Thus, even if the base cryptocurrency depreciates, there is still excess volume to counteract the devaluation. Non-collateralized stablecoins depend on complex mathematics and computer algorithms to maintain stability.

Drawbacks of Stablecoin Tokenomics

Critics like Haseeb Qureshi and Preston Byrne believe that stablecoins are not sustainable. Most people who don’t believe in stablecoins point to the historical failures of governments that have tried to tether their national currency to other currencies like the USD. Qureshi succinctly details the drawbacks of three classes of stablecoins, saying:

Fiat-collateralized requires you to trust a centralized third party to hold your dollars (or euros).

Crypto-collateralized creates a dependency on the stability of the cryptocurrency on the other side of the equation.

Non-collateralized requires continual network growth in the form of new investors who can provide capital to support a falling currency value.

Taking crypto-collateralized stablecoins as a point of reference, the excess amount of the base crypto only offers protection against its devaluation up to a certain point. What if the base crypto declines by a percentage that is above the amount by which it exceeds the stablecoins? This point is described as the “black swan territory.”

The jury is still out on whether the idea of a stablecoin has merits or is another failed crypto experiment. One thing is sure, the industry as a whole would benefit from less uncertainty on account of the volatility of cryptocurrencies.

Do you think that stablecoins are reliable? Keep the conversation going in the comment section below.

Images courtesy of leobasankic.com, Shutterstock

The post Stablecoin Analysis: Panacea to Crypto Volatility or Disaster Waiting to Happen appeared first on Bitcoinist.com.

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[newsfundastuff]

President Donald Trump’s phone call with Taliban leaders last week was profound and unprecedented in the long timeline that makes up America’s longest war. For some in American national security and diplomatic circles, it was a climax in a frustrating, years-long peace process. For others, it was also a worrisome event—not because of what Trump said but because of who, exactly, he spoke with. Some of the Taliban leaders on the other end of the line were also on secret U.S. kill-or-capture lists. The commander in chief was chatting with people his government officially still wanted jailed or dead, two Defense Department sources told The Daily Beast.Of course, any peace initiative is going to require talking with one’s enemies—and this call was no exception. But some U.S. defense officials insisted that this was a step too far, and a sign of what they see as a slapdash approach to ending America’s involvement in the Afghan conflict.It’s the latest indication that Trump, who has long wanted out of Afghanistan, is far apart from the Pentagon on how to wind down the U.S. military’s longest foreign war. Military anxieties are understandable. The U.S. is, for the first time, taking a gamble on negotiating an endgame with an enemy it doesn’t trust and which has all the leverage in the negotiations. A pre-deal ceasefire already broke down on Wednesday, five days after the deal was unveiled, when the U.S. bombed a Taliban position in Helmand to disrupt an attack by the militant group on a checkpoint run by Afghan security forces. NBC News reported late last week that there is “persuasive intelligence” that the Taliban has no intention of abiding by the deal. But military concerns go beyond whether the other side in the conflict is trustworthy; there are also concerns about the American side of the equation. Four Trump administration officials, two who are generally supportive of the plan for pulling out troops and two who aren’t—the withdrawals began on Monday—told The Daily Beast that the administration did not have a clear plan for doing so. The call is just one indicator among many. “It’s ground-shaking that the president spoke to individuals on a target list,” said a senior Defense Department official. “It was a big give from our side, towards an adversary that traditionally has never held up their side of the bargain in numerous other attempts towards de-escalation and peace. We made a group that lacks absolute operational control over their forces a legitimate player on the world stage.”The target lists, known as Joint Priority Engagement Lists, are said to be held by the Central Intelligence Agency and the U.S. military’s elite Joint Special Operations Command, according to two U.S. Defense Department sources who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to disclose such matters. U.S. military and intelligence officials The Daily Beast spoke to said that whenever they receive information through any kind of intelligence, the information is forwarded on to the agency that controls the list for further analysis. If the information is found credible, then someone like Amir Khan Muttaqi, who listened in on the call with Trump and who was wounded in a July 2018 airstrike in the Ghazni province of Afghanistan, could have several military or intelligence operations built around them for their ultimate capture or death. The Central Intelligence Agency referred questions to the National Security Council, which did not respond. The White House also did not respond.  The Pentagon did not return requests for comment, but after this story published, provided a statement: “After 18 years of war it is clear that peace in Afghanistan will not come through military means. It will come when Afghans come to the table to talk with one another and decide their future together.”Trump praised the phone call he had with Mullah Adbul Ghani Baradar—who is also on one of the targeting lists. Baradar, who was formerly held in a Pakistani prison, is a co-founder of the Taliban and the head of its political office in Qatar. “We had a very good conversation with the leader of the Taliban today, and they’re looking to get this ended, and we’re looking to get it ended. I think we all have a very common interest,” said Trump. “We had, actually, a very good talk with the leader of the Taliban.” Trump is said to be planning a meeting with Taliban leaders in the near future, an intention the president promised at the White House this past Saturday, but no date has been set. In September, Trump canceled a planned meeting with Taliban leaders at Camp David after a string of bombings that killed multiple Afghan people and an American soldier. “What he doesn’t understand is that the president’s decision to speak directly to Mullah Baradar and other senior Taliban political leaders was seen by the Taliban as a form of legitimization,” said Thomas Joscelyn, a senior editor of the Long War Journal, a project under the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “It raises their so-called Islamic emirate to the status of a political peer of the United States. And the Taliban trumpeted this phone call all across their media in multiple languages, specifically for that purpose.” Annie Pforzheimer—a former deputy chief of mission in Kabul, now with the Center for Strategic and International Studies—agreed. “It’s close and it is more than I think the Taliban deserve,” said Pforzheimer. Of course, there are “people”—often, very dangerous people—“you must deal with in order to end the violence.” But those people don’t have to get access to the commander in chief. “That’s something where you could hold your president and your secretary in reserve [during negotiations], for a later point when more has been achieved… It’s a tool that a negotiator, in my opinion, should have been allowed to leave for much later in the process.” Meanwhile, on Capitol Hill, lawmakers have openly questioned the administration’s deal, calling for increased transparency into discussions that led to the agreement. Two sources on the Hill told The Daily Beast that lawmakers are interested in scrutinizing communications, including those between the State Department and White House, about the agreement. The State Department did not respond to requests for comment from The Daily Beast before publication. Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) wrote on Twitter late Monday: “I got a classified briefing today on the agreement with the Taliban. I have been a supporter of negotiations with the Taliban, but the more I learn, the more concerned I become that Trump got fleeced. ... The Taliban's security guarantees are so vague as to be effectively void.”Rep. Eliot Engel (D-NY), chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, and Sen. Jim Risch (R-ID), the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, are preparing to hold hearings on the agreement. It is not yet clear exactly what the two committees will focus on. Some lawmakers who this week studied the classified annexes to the deal walked away from the review worried about the agreement and the administration’s ability to enforce the deal.Rep. Liz Cheney, one of the top Republicans in the House, said in a statement Feb. 29 that the deal “includes concessions that could threaten the security of the United States.” In a hearing Tuesday, Cheney said the annexes did not detail mechanisms that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said would be included in the deal. Pompeo has previously said the agreement would include a mechanism to ensure that the Taliban upheld its end of the deal and that the group would renounce al Qaeda. “What we have seen with this agreement now concerns me as much as the Iranian nuclear deal did, now that I have seen the documents and now that there seems to be still no verification mechanism by which we are going to enforce any of the so-called Taliban promises,” Cheney said. But with the November presidential election looming, it’s no surprise that the president has been such a public booster of the deal. For Trump, it’s an objective that he holds as a highly political conviction. For at least the past two years, the president has regularly told, or angrily demanded of administration officials that he wants “the hell out” of Afghanistan before the end of his first term, according to those close to Trump. In the time since the Taliban deal was publicly announced, the president has repeatedly told close advisers, at times using the same phrasing, he wants it “done before November”—a clear reference to Election Day and signaling that he wants to run on the accomplishment of ending America’s longest war—two people with direct knowledge tell The Daily Beast.But the agreement signed by the United States and the Taliban on Feb. 29 in Doha, Qatar, has already begun to show signs of buckling in the region as members of the militant group have restarted offensive operations as of last week. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani rejected a provision in the agreement between the United States and the Taliban that calls for the release of 5,000 prisoners, which is a condition for further intra-Afghan negotiations scheduled for March 10 in Oslo, Norway. Pompeo brushed off the Afghan president’s rebuke of the clause on CBS’ Face the Nation: “There have been prisoner releases from both sides before. We’ve managed to figure our path forward.” “Boy, how the tune has changed,” said retired Marine Col. David Lapan, a former Homeland Security and Pentagon spokesman who’s now a Trump administration critic. “This is the same Pompeo who criticized Obama’s administration for swapping five Taliban militants for Army Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl. Now we are talking five times a thousand and all of a sudden, it’s OK.” When discussing the potential for the Taliban not honoring the deal or the possible dangers and uncertainty ahead, one of the sources with direct knowledge recalled Trump cutting off a recent conversation on the matter and immediately stressing, among other things, that “the American people, Republicans and Democrats” want U.S. troops out and that “you can look at any poll” and see that.It was unclear to what polling, public or internal, the president was referring. However, according to a source familiar with the matter, a paper that has circulated among the upper ranks of the White House since 2017 consisted of research demonstrating that Trump did better in the 2016 election in areas of the U.S. that suffered higher Iraq and Afghan war casualty rates. The authors of that paper, professors Douglas Kriner and Francis Shen, even wrote in an August 2017 piece for Politico that “for all his lofty rhetoric, Trump might come to regret this decision [to order a troop surge in Afghanistan]. In a recently released research paper… [what] we found was a significant correlation between war casualty rates and Trump votes. In fact, we think three states key to Trump’s victory—Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—might have swung the other way if they’d had even modestly lower” casualty rates.“The vast majority of the American people—including the majority of veterans of the recent wars—support bringing our troops home from Afghanistan,” said Dan Caldwell, foreign policy campaign manager for Stand Together, a new name for the Koch network’s policy advocacy group. “Withdrawing all our troops is not only good policy, but it is a good political move for President Trump. He should follow through with a withdrawal from Afghanistan even if the Taliban and Afghan government can’t work out a deal.” Read more at The Daily Beast.Got a tip? Send it to The Daily Beast hereGet our top stories in your inbox every day. Sign up now!Daily Beast Membership: Beast Inside goes deeper on the stories that matter to you. Learn more.

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