#kevin is a bottom i dont make the rules

[laurentsmadrecklessgambit]

currently thinking about how Jean is dating Kevin's celebrity crush and how he'll most definitely spend all of the NCAA final pissing Kevin off, but when USC finally win he'll be like "so ... you coming to the hotel with me and Jeremy?" and Kevin will want to punch him but he'll go anyway 🥰

[stabbyfoxandrew]

i dont know if you are still doing these but!! id love a kiss on the hip for kandrew :) <3

Kevin Day is not a virgin. He understands sex and most of its mechanics. He's slept with a few people in his life, he's also sampled plenty of porn genres.

But none of that compares to this. To having Andrew's full and complete attention. To having Andrew on his back in his bedroom in Columbia. He's not quite sure how they ended up here. Of course, he understands the logistics of getting to Columbia from Palmetto State.

He knows the route they always take, he knows the right exit, he knows how to find Nicky's house.

How he got to this point he's not sure.

All he knows is Andrew and Neil were planning to come here this weekend for a bit of alone time. Just the two of them, no one else to bother them. That's what Kevin thought at least. Until Neil knocked his shoulder into Kevin's side at practice earlier and told him to pack a bag. When Kevin asked why, Neil merely shrugged. "Andrew said to."

Andrew said to. So Kevin did.

Kevin always does what Andrew says. That's how the three of them happened. Six months ago Andrew told Kevin that Neil wanted to kiss him, Kevin kissed him. Andrew watched them make out then announced that he wanted to kiss Kevin, Kevin kissed him.

And now here they all are, spread across Andrew's bed. Neil is sitting cross-legged against the headboard, wearing only his boxers and a tank top. Kevin has been stripped down to his shorts. And Andrew is fully clothed, except for the jacket he shed upon coming into the house, with his head on Neil's thigh. Kevin is hovering over Andrew, not touching him anywhere below the waist. Never touching him below the waist. Never touching him anywhere Andrew doesn't want him to.

"What am I doing now?" Kevin finally asks. Andrew had pulled Kevin over top of him like this a couple minutes ago and Kevin's been sort of frozen since. Because he's not a virgin, but Andrew makes him feel like one. A pair of hazel eyes stares up at him, seemingly bored. The flush on Andrew's cheeks is the only thing that gives him away.

"Whatever you want."

"That's not how it works—"

"It is now. You've graduated, Day. Touch me," Andrew commands. Kevin's hands twitch against the mattress, but he doesn't move them. Not yet.

"Where?"

"Anywhere." Andrew says, the want in his voice making Kevin's breathing catch. It takes a moment for him to process the word. And when he does, he throws himself off the bed. Andrew just stares after him. "Where are you going?"

Kevin sputters and puts his hands in the air. "You can't just change the rules on me like this."

"What rules?" Neil asks.

"The—" Kevin can't believe the question. "Oh, goddamn it, Neil. You know exactly what I'm talking about! I can't go from nothing to something to everything. Not like this. You have to tell me, Andrew. I don't know what—"

"I just told you what." Andrew says, sitting up a bit to look at him. "Anywhere, anything."

Kevin shakes his head. "No."

"No?"

"I don't want to fuck this up."

"You can't fuck it up."

"But—"

"No buts," Andrew interrupts. Kevin's gaze flicks from Andrew's to Neil's, back and forth. Andrew sighs. "Get the fuck over here, Kevin."

Kevin always does what Andrew says.

He moves to settle back over Andrew, propped up on his hands and knees. Andrew reaches for him and grabs the back of Kevin's neck, pulling him down into a kiss. Kevin gasps against his mouth and hears Neil make an appreciative sound, a little hum of a noise, above them. Suddenly there's a hand pushing into Kevin's hair and he knows it's Neil's. Kevin opens his eyes and looks up to meet Neil's eyes. The idiot smiles down at them and Andrew's eyes are closed, his mouth is hot, and... Kevin groans when Andrew fucks his tongue into his mouth.

Kevin moves to slip one hand under Andrew's head and lowers himself onto him, making Andrew exhale against his mouth. They're both half hard, Kevin ruts his hips against Andrew. An experiment that gets a grunt and a nip to his bottom lip.

"Good?" Kevin asks after pulling away a bit.

"Yes. Keep going."

"I want to take your shirt off." Kevin admits. Andrew's expression barely changes, but it does.

"Then do it." Andrew challenges, letting go of Kevin's neck. It takes both of them but Kevin gets the shirt off and drops it beside them. After thinking about it for half a second, he lightly skims a hand up Andrew's side making him shiver. He thinks it's a good sign, but then Neil's leaning in close to his head.

"Firmer, Kev." He whispers.

A hint. A clue from someone who's got years of experience on him. Kevin grabs it and a handful of Andrew's chest, taking Andrew by surprise.

"Really? Groping me, Day?"

"You said anything, didn't you?" Kevin squeezes Andrew's chest and thumbs at his nipple until it's peaked. Then he dips his head back down to press kisses to Andrew's neck. He knows Andrew likes that. It's safe, familiar, good for both of them. Andrew turns his head to the side, likely so he can look at Neil, but Kevin nips his pulse point and Andrew hisses a breath before grabbing him by the nape again and pulling him up like a mother cat does a kitten.

"Do you want me to stop?"

Andrew blinks at him like he's slow. "No. I want you to get on with it."

"You said anything I wanted." Kevin reminds him. "Or are you taking it back?"

"I'm not taking it back."

"Then let me take my time. Want to make you feel good." Kevin returns to Andrew's neck and Andrew's nails scrape against his back. Kevin assumes in appreciation. He nibbles at Andrew's throat until the goalie's breathing is labored, then finally comes up for air. "Can I bite you?"

There's a little spark in Andrew's eyes. Kevin wants to turn it into flame. After a moment, Andrew says 'yes, anything, do you understand the meaning of the word?' and Kevin shuts him up with teeth in the side of Andrew's neck. He sucks a mark there, one that'll bloom purple pedals, then does it again. Again.

He hears a sharp inhale to the side and glances over to see Neil palm himself through his underwear. Andrew tilts his head back to look at Neil and rolls his eyes. 

"How am I not surprised your neck fetish extends to just watching."

At this point in their relationship, or whatever the fuck this is, Kevin thinks Neil has an Andrew fetish. He doesn't say so.

"Keep going." Neil tells him, almost as affected as Andrew. Kevin obliges, kissing and sucking his way down until he's nearing the waistband of Andrew's jeans. He stops there and raises his head to find Andrew glaring at him.

"Neil," Andrew says. "I think we need to get him an English tutor."

That makes Neil laugh and Kevin rolls his eyes, pinches the inside of Neil's thigh. "You can't fault me for wanting to be sure."

"I can and I will. Keep going or get out."

"Alright then. Instead of asking I'll just tell you. I'm going to take your pants off and then I'm going to blow your mind." Kevin decides, suddenly confident despite only giving a few blowjobs in his life. His decree has Andrew's brows raising.

"That so?"

"Yes." Kevin says firmly, making Neil's lips quirk. He eyes Neil for a moment. "Questions, comments, concerns?"

"None. Go." Neil tells him. So Kevin does. He scoots back and makes quick work of Andrew's remaining clothes, save his armbands. He's never seen what lies beneath them and he doesn't want to, because he has a theory and he doesn't want to test it.

Once Andrew's laid almost bare beneath him, Kevin stares. For a lot longer than he'll ever admit. Finally he dips his head and is thrown off course when he notices a freckle he'd never seen before. He detours past Andrew's cock and presses his lips to his hipbone instead. It's a barely-there thing, just a peck. But it makes Neil inhale sharply.

Kevin looks up at him. "What?"

Andrew's eyes flick up to Neil's, then he rolls them. "He's sentimental."

Kevin isn't sure what that means and it must be obvious from the look on his face. Andrew just shakes his head. "This is not a Q&A, get back to what you were doing."

[livelovecaliforniadreams]

Kevin Pearson Making Sophie Laugh

[stargirlwnchstr]

I have a visual to share with y'all. Say welcome to my long ass 'The Foxes + tiktok' headcanon

@ nickythefox_es (part 1???)

Basically Nicky gets tiktok but all of the foxes show up eventually and just use his profile.

• Most of the videos are with nicky and allison, also matt and dan and occasionally neil.

• Allison and nicky learn so many dances.

• Their duet of make his pockets hurt with Mariah and Zane from the vlog squad is the first one to go v i r a l.

• Yeah most of their followers know them but some and a lot of the comments are non exy fans that just watch them because they're cool

• So many of the "what is exy" "stickball game??" "dont even bother explaining to me what is the sport they play I dont care I'm just here for neil." And related comments get a liked from creator (andrew told nicky to like them)

•The "Oh my god she's coming." "I'm so afraid of her." Audio are the twinyards and nicky shows up, he had to bribe them to be a part of that one.

• They post another version but it's Kevin that enters and Allison and Nicky talking

• So many comments thirsting over them and calling matt and dan parents

• "the real bisexual struggle is simping for matt and dan in the same tiktok." -> liked from creator nickythefox_es commented/replied: ASDGFKSSDWADKWB

• Someone makes a 'put a finger down: Neil Josten edition' and nicky drags him to do it. They both smile as they listen to the prompts and Neil obviously puts all his fingers down but they're like "put a finger down if you clapbacked/if you bad mouthed someone (bonus points if it was on national tv)" "put a finger down if you're under 6 feet" "put a finger down if you love exy" and the last one just says "put a finger down if andrew minyard." Neil does and smiles at someone off camera. Needless to say it goes viral as well. A few weeks after nicky gets verified.

• Allison becomes friends with thenavarose and wisdom sorry I dont make the rules (they're fashion tiktokers)

• They make a series of rating each of the foxes throughout the day, including one of Wymack.

• They do receive bad comments, from bitter ravens fans or just recalling their pasts and nicky sits down and makes a video telling everyone about how they do this videos for fun they dont need hate and negative comments on their videos and all that

• Then another one posted minutes after, neil comes in and nicky says "okay neil you have one minute. Rant off." And neil goes on this rant like how they already hit Rock bottom a single comment is not gonna hurt them and "do you get how insignificant and meaningless your lives must be? You took the time to write and post a comment that you thought was gonna cause an impact and failed. Also thanks for the comments though it helps nicky stay on the algorithm." NICKY SCREECHES AND THE VIDEO ENDS WITH THEM SMILING

• Allison vlogs neil and her going shopping or thrifting also cutting Neil's hair

• *neil walks into the room wearing his orange bandana* *camera moves and zooms on Andrew's face* he doesnt lip sync but the song sings "oh noo I think I'm catching feelings" andrew tells him to delete it "but it already has thousands of likes andrew"

• They post some of their work out routines per request

• One of them is the fast and "I'm spinning like a ballerina" chill of neil just running on the treadmill and doing sprints and squats and leg stuff while it cuts to allison doing a bit of everything but looking like a queen on a matching set.

• A fun one that goes viral for "vine energy" is: it's very quiet on the court and Kevin, very in the zone, throws the ball to the goal, which Andre's catches easily and almost without moving. The camera goes back to kevin as he screeches and let's himself fall on the ground. Neil is standing beside him shaking his head and looking at the goal with a smile on his face.

• They try to teach neil the dances but while filming one of them he just leaves. They post it either way.

• They're in the bus, nicky is on selfie mode and says "it is game day my dudes" he turns and shows the whole bus S C R E A M S, in the corner Wymack is covering his face.

• The iconic "they say drunk thoughts are sober words" or something like that and it cuts to a series of videos of the foxes drunk af. Example: Nicky grabbing Allison's face and saying 'Remember. Bread. Head. Leave.' And allison nodding.

• Nicky films kevin standing up and put the "do you ever wonder what is going on inside their head?" And it cuts to pictures of racquets and exy and Jeremy Knox and one that says history stuff.

• Another one that goes viral is kevin very seriously and p e r f o r m i n g, rapping Jefferson's side of the cabinet battle #1 from Hamilton then towards the end andrew stands up in front of him and with his iconic bored expression he starts rapping Hamilton's part. Behind the camera there's a soft "...oh my gOD" and kevin is shocked eyes widen open and then the camera zooms on Neil who's mouth is open in shock but GRINNING and ~impressed~

• Dan and matt do The challenge, you know the one that like has to flip them over and all that and they ace it, nicky points the camera to where andrew and neil are stating and Andrew says no.

• A few minutes later another video of the challenge is posted only this time is matt and neil.

• Nicky and allison are in full gear filming a dance video (maybe savage or captain hook) on the court and someone films them filming that and then Wymack looking at them SO disappointed cut to Wymack with nicky's phone, having confiscated it and nicky besides him "coach, it's cardio!"

• Hours spent trying trick shots

• Foxes: "get back! Move!" Ravens: "Let me in! I be the I g g y!" Trojans: "Oh my God do no let her in" Foxes: "I am trying!"

• Nicky lying down: "okay but someone needs to tell me how old is the shirtless pottery guy. I can't be part of another controversy. It's for science c'mon. *debby Ryan's*"

• Someone comments "he's eighteen. Simp away, nicky." And he makes a video with his feet swinging and smiling. Aaron gets on the frame and says "we are deeply in need of some bowls." The caption: hi @ papapots

• They are verified so obviously he gains a couple of thousands followers and he duets smiling and with a package in his arms. Text: thanks for the support (and hi new followers from sport side of tiktok hope you enjoy my pots) caption: hi @ nickthefox_es I got you aaron.

• After the package comes they duet it with nicky screaming and showing off the goods and then he moves stop show andrew eating ice cream out of one of them. Caption: AJSNEPWLDKSS THANK YOU DAX

• Allison and nicky do the "I love you!" "No you dont topper! You love the idea of me. You love being seen with me but you dont love me." But nicky is Sarah and allison is topper. Next day the obx ig page reposted it "we stan the psu foxes pogues for life." And chase stokes posts it on Twitter saying "yoo the palmetto foxes watch??? my show???" Nicky takes a screenshot and on green screen he says "hi chase!! We do! The whole team binged it. Currently we've been debating who of us is going to dress up as pogues for Halloween." A lot of voices start arguing and as nicky is gonna enter the debate the video cuts.

• Allison does the facetime *deep male voice says hey* prank on them. Neil doesnt react. Nicky doesnt look up from his phone but does the finger thing and says "get that d, allison!" Dan and renee look at each other and then at allison and she bursts out laughing.

• aaron studying to be a doctor: *two plus two is four etc sound* andrew (eating pretzels from the bag while watching a game show lying down in a bean bag) and his eiditic memory [basically not needing to study]: *three is a magic number sound*

• Nicky runs through the court and enters the lounge beside the photo wall there's a poster he shows the camera as the sounds says it "alive ahaha fuck"

• Somehow they convince all of them to show up and do the wipe it down trend that ends up with wymack throwing the towel at the mirror.

• Comment: so how many members of the team listen to girl in red or sweater weather? Nicky stands there with the color filter: 👁👄👁👉👈 caption: yes❤

• He gets neil to duet to the whole "british people be like". "Neil I'm not british." "Part of you is so just read the tweets." He does and the comments are all thirst and simping

• Comment: raise your hand if you've been victimized by neil josten. Where my fellow Simps at? (The comment gets hundreds of thousands of likes) they make a video, everyone on the team except aaron who walks out raises their hand as the sound says "welcome to simp nation" kevin rolls his eyes but raises his, says something that nicky captions "i simp over his exy skills". andrew doesn't at first, but next to him neil whispers something and after andrew says yes, neil grabs Andrew's forearm and raises it. Andrew looks away and neil smiles.

• Nicky lying down: okay but what if Jean moreau traded places with the french guy from here you know who, david.

• Comment "ugh your mind nicky" reply video: right? Big brain, many thoughts, head full all the time. But like actually the idea of david playing exy and Jean hanging out with ducks and making viral tiktoks just-

• Comment "i feel you and @ austincantdrive would make the best chaotic duo" reply: we would be too powerful together. Austin replies too: agree.

• Allison makes a sports jersey/comfy wear but make it fashion and she styles herself. Everyone on the comments d i e s for her.

• Comment "okay but what about the boys. help allison." She makes a video too with matt and nicky and at the end neil wears an orange crop top and the internet b r e a k s

• Comment "allison do you listen to girl in red?" video reply: her winking at the camera and lip syncing as sweater weather plays. The comments a lot of them liked by creator: a win for the girls (and the boys)

• Upperclassmen Back in 2003: okay but hey do we always have to be involved? Can we do normal stuff that normal people do, like, go for brunch? Us (aaron, andrew, kevin and me): what the fuck is brunch?

• Of course they do the mr blue sky trend. Nicky: drunkenly goes to flirt with a guy. Aaron: drunkenly follows to get away from kevin. Kevin: drunk on pure vodka reminds us we have practice in the morning.

• Or another one all of them. Neil: ready to insult a reporter. Dan: tries not to laugh on camera. Matt: gets ready to hug him afterwards Allison and Nicky: Filming everything. Wymack: the only one trying to stop it from happening and failing.

• Dan and matt duet their reactions to every video edit of them, smiling and saying "your parents love you guys!".

• Comment "literally what is wrong with the ravens/ravens fans?The foxes are such a nice group of people and they're doing great in the sport y'all worship just shut up you cult-y athletic hype house." video reply: "ladies and gentlemen. The volume inside of this bus is A S T R O N O M I C A L."

• comment video reply: okay so we're not gonna talk about nicky at the gym?? Bc C A K E. nicky lip syncing "I'm glad you brung it up because I've been dying to talk about this for a fucking hot minute. First of all-"

• Colin uses one of Neil's or Andrew's interviews replies as one of his sounds and nicky fanboys a lot

• Allison and nicky do the Kardashian sound compilation.

• Nicky with a picture of Erik on green screen: "hi I just wanna say if you look anything like this please contact me. Thank you." Caption: miss u baby. And Erik watches his tiktoks and he facetimes him immediately. Nicky takes a screenshot and duets his own video crying with the screenshot caption: SKALSBSKAJSL Erik comments: stop making tiktoks and answer the phone, hemmick. Nicky replies: yessir everyone below comments keyboard smashes and you got a good one. Goals. Lmao kids that's what we call bottom panic. We stan one healthy long distance relationship and after that a bunch of long distance relationship questions that he makes another video on.

• A video of Katelyn and neil chatting and it pans to the twins watching them with the *when worlds collide sound*

• He reposts a snippet of one of his interviews post game where he grabs the mic from the reporter and nicky: can I say something? Reporter: sure, go ahead. Nicky: thank you. *looks straight into the camera* all the birds died in 1986 due to Reagan killing them and replacing them with spies that are now watching us. The birds work for the bourgeoisie. Thank you." And leaves. IT GOES VIRAL INSTANTLY.

• Comment "is everyone else gonna forget that tiktok where he said he was already part of a controversy? We stan a problematic icon?" Video reply: guys I might have been part of a whole Twitter beef thing against my little hoodie and Bruce hallway but c'mon, like, c'mon you can't blame me.

• Comment "for neil: does the carpet match the drapes 👅😍?" Video reply: neil on selfie mode. "Allison gave me her phone, told me to answer this and ran away so umm." He reads the box on the screen and frowns he walks and stands next to the window, where Andrew is sitting down and is barely seen on frame. "uhmm, the internet is confusing. Our carpet is like this" he turns the phone and shows the floor (grayish carpet) and then back at him "but we don't have drapes so, technically they don't match, I dont know." Andrew's head goes up and simply says "Neil." Neil turns "what?" And the video ends.

• of course nicky and allison do the WAP dance, on the court, when they should be running drills.

[estrel]

tagged by @fluffiestlou --thank you eva!! i also really love music so i’m happy to do this!! ♡ 

playlist shuffle rules: hit shuffle on your media player and write down the first 20 then tag 10 people, no skipping!

i follow rivers - lykke li, the magician

lose it - oh wonder

i do (end credits) - kevin abstract

make you mine - public

dance, baby! - boy pablo

alps - novo amor, ed tullett

feelings - hayley kiyoko

are we still friends? - tyler, the creator

to die for - sam smith

golden - hippo campus

thin - aquilo

bottom bitch - doja cat

lilo - the japanese house

sunlight - hozier

alrighty aphrodite - peach pit

watch - billie eilish

old money - lana del rey

hourglass - vacation manor

adversity - beach fossils

as it was - hozier

ten songs i’ve been listening to lately: fair warning, it’s mostly mitski and taylor swift bc i just listened to folklore

all i wanted - paramore

my tears ricochet - taylor swift

a pearl - mitski

your best american girl - mistki

mad woman - taylor swift

whole lotta love - led zeppelin

what kind of man - florence + the machine

exile - taylor swift, bon iver

washing machine heart - mitski

new river - the oh hellos

list your nine most influential albums in no specific order:

wasteland, baby! - hozier

norman fucking rockwell - lana del rey 

boy in jeans - ryan beatty 

birthplace - novo amor

beautiful lies - birdy

feeding seahorses by hand - billie marten 

ii - aquilo

fine line - harry styles

blue neighborhood - troye sivan

tagging: @spn-moosechester @seffersonjtarship @winchester-novak @lizstiel + anyone else who wants to i dont feel like tagging 10 haha (no pressure, feel free to ignore ♡)

[sugarcherriess]

noooooooo cuz jacob and kevin r legit the runner upssssssss

first of all, know that the reveal album is my fav from tbz (this becomes annoyingly clear later on) and cuz i listen to it the most im just gonna bring examples from here, and wings is the loml. okay reasons here we go (everythings gonna be grammatically incorrect lmao bare with me)

hyunjae - his voice is so amazing cuz its so warm and relaxing. you know the feeling you get when you step into a warm shower at the end of an exhausting day? yeah, that, but voiceified (that is not a word oops and im not sure if this analogy makes sense). he literally has no bad line in tbz’s entire discography. i love how its slightly…raspy? but in a good way. like usually i dont like raspy vocals as much but hes ✨ different ✨ somehow. also like the vibrato thing he does is so amazing cuz it adds an extra touch of idkwhatbutSOMETHING and it elevates his lines in a sense? idk if i make sense at all. off the top of my head i think my fav line of hos is the outro he does w/ changmin and sunwoo in reveal cuz damn that part’s so pretty wtf. also all his parts in wings (that song is the loml omfg) like the first part and also when he switches from falsetto and normal its so satisfying and more. and like. it can also be so powerful ykkkkk just agh i love it

changmin (why tf is the spacing so weird or is that just my phone ANYWAY) - similar reasons as hyunjae but his is…not as strong? like but in an amazing way cuz its kinda softer? im not gonna make much sense but i also like how he somehow drags his voice sometimes like its not diff notes or anything but the sound is just elongated and i love it. istg i looped his cover of dandelion so many times i probably contributed like 1/10 of its total views lmao. his voice is so calming thooooo. like in wings his part is so soft and so comfortable to listen to. not saying he cant have diff vocal tones, no no no. i love love LOVE how his voice is also so clean at the same time. like its not only calming but every slight shift in tone or whatever can be heard because of how clear it is. like in break your rules, scar, and shake you down, his verses all have a different feel to it. versatility, you know? theyre all so amazing

sunwoo - so im ngl part of the reason why i love his voice so much is because hes the main rapper of tbz. and so i was shocked(?) that his singing voice was so calm and soft. cuz usually raps r more to the harder side and more “noisy” so i love how because of his soft singing voice sometimes his raps are also on the softer side? like its clear that its a rap but its also clear that hes singing it? wow im making less and less sense as i ramble on. anyway, i really like his soft vocals at the end of wings and break your rules. you know the vlive he did with jacob where they made the acoustic version of break your rules and sunwoo accused jacob of making it into a “hamburger song”? that clip really highlights the calm side to his voice and im living for it.

whooo that was long. ahahah as you can probably tell, im a sucker for calm and soft voices. which is why i love wings and candles so much. cuz the entirety of the song is calm and soft. not that i dont like noisy stuff srsly shake you down is an underrated bside. tbz’s versatility in their discography really contributed in my love for them lmao (also cuz their personalities (on screen but yea)??? hello they r 11 amazing humans why wouldnt i stan them) anywayy thanks for sitting thru my long ramble-y tedtalk that probably didnt make much senseeeeeeee come back another time <3 🫧

Hyunjaes vibrato and falsetto. i GET you. From the bottom of my heart I understand and share the sentiments. He has such a gorgeous voice that its def like a hot shower after a stressful day. And you’re absolutely right about his lines. Mostly his parts are my favourite in their songs and NO im not being biased 🧎🏻‍♂️🧎🏻‍♂️🧎🏻‍♂️🧎🏻‍♂️🤲🏼

Changmins voice being clear - you put my feelings into words. His voice is like cursive writing but when it has clear loops and edges and not a singular mistake can be seen and the pigment of the ink is the same shade and intensity throughout. He stands out so much when he sings omlll and also he has breathy edge to his voice have you noticed? Akjendnfnfnfnnr changmins voice is so seductively soothing GOODBYE

Sunwoos voice makes my heart flutter and honestly his voice can turn any song to a lullaby. His voice is so friendly 😭😭😭😭 cant find any other way to describe it. Likw you said, even his raps are melodic like damn bae serving hard ✋🏼

[patriotsnet]

Why Do Republicans Deny Climate Change

New Post has been published on https://www.patriotsnet.com/why-do-republicans-deny-climate-change/

Why Do Republicans Deny Climate Change

Florida Could Be Underwater In A Few Decades Can Republicans Win The Battleground State If They Refuse To Heed Environmental Warnings

Why Do Republicans Deny Climate Change Science?

Molly OTooleKeith JohnsonForeign Policy

MIAMI Florida is waging a quixotic battle against climate change that becomes immediately and aggravatingly apparent when driving anywhere in Miami. Endless orange traffic cones, flashing detour signs, and car-swallowing pits clog the streets as the city tries to rebuild overloaded sewer systems and literally raise roads above the encroaching flood waters.

Sitting in his cramped, cluttered office at the University of Miami, geophysics professor Chris Harrison squints at a rising red line on his computer monitor. It shows sea levels in Key West, which have risen 2 mm per year on average in the last hundred years or so. No longer: Now theyre rising by 3 mm each year bad news for a place where the highest elevation is 345 feet. So is Miami eventually doomed to a watery death?

Well, yes, he said.

MIAMI Florida is waging a quixotic battle against climate change that becomes immediately and aggravatingly apparent when driving anywhere in Miami. Endless orange traffic cones, flashing detour signs, and car-swallowing pits clog the streets as the city tries to rebuild overloaded sewer systems and literally raise roads above the encroaching flood waters.

Well, yes, he said.

I dont have a plan to influence the weather, he dismissively answered a question about climate change at a town hall in New Hampshire.

People Who Have Changed Their Position

“I used to be a climate-change skeptic”, conservative columnist Max Boot admitted in 2018, one who believed that “the science was inconclusive” and that worry was “overblown”. Now, he says, referencing the Fourth National Climate Assessment, “the scientific consensus is so clear and convincing.”

Climate change doubter Bob Inglis, a former US representative for South Carolina, changed his mind after appeals from his son on his environmental positions, and after spending time with climate scientist Scott Heron studying coral bleaching in the Great Barrier Reef. Inglis lost his House race in 2010, and went on to found republicEn, a nonprofit promoting conservative voices and solutions on climate change.

Jerry Taylor promoted climate denialism for 20 years as former staff director for the energy and environment task force at the American Legislative Exchange Council and former vice president of the Cato Institute. Taylor began to change his mind after climate scientist James Hansen challenged him to reread some Senate testimony. He became President of the Niskanen Center in 2014, where he is involved in turning climate skeptics into climate activists, and making the business case for climate action.

Weather Channel senior meteorologist Stu Ostro expressed skepticism or cynicism about anthropogenic global warming for some years, but by 2010, he had become involved in explaining the connections between man-made climate change and extreme weather.”

Farmers And Climate Denial

Seeing positive economic results from efforts at climate-friendly agricultural practices, or becoming involved in intergenerational stewardship of a farm may play a role in turning farmers away from denial. One study of climate change denial among farmers in Australia found that farmers were less likely to take a position of climate denial if they had experienced improved production from climate-friendly practices, or identified a younger person as a successor for their farm.

In the United States, rural climate dialogues sponsored by the Sierra Club have helped neighbors overcome their fears of political polarization and exclusion, and come together to address shared concerns about climate impacts in their communities. Some participants who start out with attitudes of anthropogenic climate change denial have shifted to identifying concerns which they would like to see addressed by local officials.

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Young Republicans See Shift In Gop: ‘from Outright Denial To Climate Caucus’

Twenty-four-year-old Republican Danielle Butcher is watching with anticipation as GOP leaders move from outright denial to now having a climate caucus a move she sees as the first step in integrating climate action into formal party policy.

Butcher, the executive vice president of the American Conservation Coalition , spoke to The Hills Equilibrium on Tuesday, just a week after Rep. John Curtis ;launched the Conservative Climate Caucus and the same day that House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy

The partys progress is huge, when you apply the context, Butcher said.; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;

This is an excellent first step, she continued. The first thing you have to do in achieving climate action is start talking about these problems.

To Butcher, integrating climate action into Republican politics speaks to her partys historic conservation core the GOP with a deep-seated, rural heritage, was responsible for creation of the National Park Service and the Environmental Protection Agency under former Presidents Theodore Roosevelt and Richard Nixon.

I also see this as us reclaiming our heritage, she said.

But with two-thirds of Americans indicating that the government should do more on climate change a stance that Butcher observed is especially true among young people” she said Republicans need to be talking about these issues and involving the younger generation in the discussions.

The GOP has notoriously struggled with young people, she added.

% Of Scientists Agree That Humans Are Causing Global Warming Yet Belief In Climate Change Continues To Depend On Political Beliefs Above All Else

It is no secret that belief in climate change in America is strongly divided along party lines, a fact we were reminded of in last weeks Republican leadership debates. The relationship was assessed in an experiment by Dan Kahan published in Advances in Political Psychology earlier this year, which demonstrated that there exists an extremely bizarre paradox that is as mind bending as it is troubling. Believe it or not, the more Republicans know about science, the less likely they are to believe in climate change.;

The Ordinary Science Intelligence measure which runs across the bottom of the graphs above measures how likely someone is to answer tests of scientific knowledge and reasoning correctly. For example, someone with an average Ordinary Science Intelligence score has a 70% chance of giving the correct answer to the simple scientific question âelectrons are smaller than atoms â true or falseâ. Someone would have to be a full standard deviation below average to be more likely than not to get this question wrong.

As the graph above shows, a Democrat with an average level of scientific understanding has an 80% chance of believing in global warming, while the equivalent Republican has only a 20% chance. Astonishingly, this number falls even further as Republicansâ scientific literacy increases.

Follow Simon Oxenham on;,;,;,;RSS,;or join the;mailing list;to get each weekâs post straight to your inbox. Image Credit: ;FREDERIC J. BROWN/Getty

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Neither I Nor Any Christian I Knew Really Worried About Things Like Pollution Global Warming Climate Change Or Any Of The Other Seemingly Apocalyptic Scenarios Put Forth By The Scientific Community I Thought I Had Insider Information About The End Of The World And It Had Nothing To Do With Climate Change

When it comes to Christian eschatology, there are numerous end-times scenarios embraced by evangelicals. The details may change but the main plot rarely does. In general, there are three main theories: Premillennialism, Postmillennialism, and Amillennialism. The first posits that the end of time will bring a tribulation of suffering, that Jesus will return, and that Christians will be raptured, which is when Jesus takes the faithful back up to heaven with him. Within this theory are two types: pre-tribbers and post-tribbers. Pre-tribbers believe that true Christians will be raptured first and that seven years of hellish suffering brought by the Antichrist will follow, after which Jesus will return again to rule over the earth for the remainder of the Great Tribulation and give people one more chance to reject him before destroying the world. Post-tribbers contend that Christians wont be raptured until the tribulation ends and must evangelize during this time.

Postmillennialism holds that the Second Coming of Jesus Christ will happen after a thousand years of relative peace on earth made possible by the practice of Christian ethics, at which time final judgment and the Rapture will occur and the world will end.

The fourth angel poured out his bowl upon the sun, and it was given to it to scorch men with fire. Men were scorched with fierce heat; and they blasphemed the name of God who has the power over these plagues, and they did not repent so as to give Him glory.

A Majority Of Republicans Say They Support Policies To Mitigate Climate Change

Percentage of Republicans in each congressional district who agree thatwe should regulate carbon dioxide as a pollutant

National average:57%

A majority of Republicans in almost every congressional district support regulating carbon dioxide as a pollutant, even when they dont believe those emissions are causing climate change.

That may seem like a paradox, but theres a long history of support among people of all partisan backgrounds for regulating pollution basic things like clean water and clean air, Professor Egan said. To the extent global warming is framed that way, it raises support for policy interventions more than the abstract concept of climate change.

Despite this majority support, Scott Pruitt, the head of the Environmental Protection Agency, has worked to repeal Obama-era policies regulating power plant emissions. He has also raised questions over whether his agency should be regulating greenhouse gases at all.

Bob Inglis, a former Republican congressman from South Carolina who is working to get others in his party to accept climate change, said that Republicans are often willing to embrace solutions, even if they say they dont believe in climate change.

It doesnt help to point the finger at conservatives and ask, Do you believe? he said. By showing me a solution that fits with my values, Ive got a way to accept the existence of the problem.

Republican support for various policy proposals, nationwide

Support

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Yet Half Of Republicans Say That Climate Change Is Happening With Strongest Support On The Coasts And In Places Where Climate Effects Are Now Being Felt

Percentage of Republicans in each congressional district who say that global warming is happening

National average:50%

Climate views at the local level tend to reflect where liberal and moderate Republicans live compared to conservative Republicans,said Patrick J. Egan, a professor of politics and public policy at New York University. So its no surprise that Republicans in major cities like Chicago, Philadelphia, San Francisco and New York are most likely to say climate change is happening.

But, there are also tantalizing hints that geographic vulnerability to climate change may affect opinion, Professor Egan said.

For example, in south Florida, an area vulnerable to sea level rise and increased risk of extreme weather, an estimated 56 percent of Republicans agree that climate change is happening. A majority of Republicans in both Alaska and Hawaii say the same.

Nearly Nine In 10 Foresee Global Warming Effects Eventually Occurring

Why Climate Change Denial Still Exists In The U.S.

In addition to the 59% of Americans who believe the effects of global warming have already begun, another 10% predict they will start happening within a few years or in their own lifetime. A further 19% foresee the effects affecting future generations, bringing the total who believe global warming will eventually affect humans to 88%. Most Americans across all demographic groups expect this, including large majorities of Republicans and independents , and nearly all Democrats .

Still, there is variation across groups in the belief that the effects of global warming have already begun, a view that may be more relevant to the propensity for people to be politically active or factor it into their voting. Democrats , adults aged 18 to 34 , college graduates , non-White Americans and women are significantly more likely than their counterparts to say the effects have begun.

Already begun

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Figure 20 Proportion Of Each Group Who Believed The Worlds Temperature Will Probably Go Up Over The Next 100 Years

Future warming. Since 1997, majorities of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents have believed that the earth will probably be warmer in a century if nothing is done to prevent it. In 2020, 94% of Democrats, 72% of Independents, and 56% of Republicans believe that warming will probably continue in the future. No notable growth has occurred in the partisan gap since 2011.

5°F warmer would be bad. Majorities of Democrats and of Independents have consistently believed that 5°F of global warming would be bad, but the proportion of Republicans expressing that belief has hovered around the midline, peaking at 59% in 1997 and dipping to its lowest points of 47% in 2010 and 2015. The partisan gap in 2020 is the biggest observed since 1997 at 34 percentage points.

A Case Of Legal Bribery

12 ;Chris Mooney, The Republican War on Science , 30-32.

13 ;Naomi Oreskes and Erik M. Conway, Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Tru

14 ;Ibid., 169-215.

4;;;;;In the 1970s eager to protect its activities from regulations and above all its profit margins, corporate America began to challenge the growing influence of environmental organizations and other advocacy groups who had been instrumental in ushering in this golden age of environmental legislation.12 Corporate leaders drew their inspiration from the successful tactics of the tobacco industry to thwart any restrictions on their activities: Naomi Oreskes and Erik M. Conway use the term tobacco strategy to explain how corporations set up or fund seemingly independent think tanks and hire experts and scientists in order to discredit scientific research and evidence likely to justify governmental regulations on their activities.13 Needlessly to say, this constitutes a complete perversion of the scientific process, as the goal results in the fact that no scientifically-based call for environmental or safety regulations go unanswered and doubt is cast on the consensus reached in peer-reviewed scientific research. The climate change denial movement is part and parcel of this larger corporate effort to hinder regulations.14

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On Why The Republican Party Has Become Opposed To Taking Action On Climate Change

Why has the Republican Party shifted? I have one answer for you: Money. They have been bought off by the fossil fuel industry. If its a congressman from Virginia, or Mitch McConnell from Kentucky where they have the coal or some of the oil and fracking interest theres a very clear correlation. Theres a reason there’s the phrase follow the money. Because if you do, you will see that the voting correlates with those major contributors to the Republican party, and most of them happen to be in the fossil fuel regions of our country.

Responding To Climate Denial

An Irish Times article notes that climate denial “is not simply overcome by reasoned argument”, because it is not a rational response. Attempting to overcome denial using techniques of persuasive argument, such as supplying a missing piece of information, or providing general scientific education may be ineffective. A person who is in denial about climate is most likely taking a position based on their feelings, especially their feelings about things they fear.

Lewandowsky has stated that “It is pretty clear that fear of the solutions drives much opposition to the science.”

It can be useful to respond to emotions, including with the statement “It can be painful to realise that our own lifestyles are responsible”, in order to help move “from denial to acceptance to constructive action.”

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Whats In The Pipeline

The annual carbon footprint from new oil and gas facilities in Texas and other Gulf states could be as high as 541 million tons of greenhouse gases by 2030the equivalent of 131 coal-fired power plants.

The industry was dramatically out of favor at the moment, in most every corner of the investing and political world, he said, and it needed urgently to adapt. At its most basic level, I think we can all agree that having less CO2 emissions in the atmosphere would be a good thingand as Houstons business leaders, we need to be committed to working to make that happen.;

For skeptics inclined to think the change in rhetoric was just a PR move, Staples for one was ready to oblige. Two days after his call with reporters, he went on the public radio show the Texas Standard to clean up his spill. It seemed as if he had intended to signal a change in messaging but was surprised by how seriously everyone had taken it. I think the term climate change has been hijacked. I think its been used to unfortunately introduce climate hysteria or climate confusion. I think the term is used in such a way to confuse the public that the sky is falling in, he said.;

Of course, theres something a little ridiculous about parsing statements from oil and gas trade groups at a time when Australia and the Amazon are burning. Theres a kind of recurrent amnesia that paints climate change as a perennially new problem, an issue that is just reaching critical mass of awareness.;

Emotional And Psychological Aspects

Florida State Senator Tom Lee has described the emotional impact and reactions of individuals to climate change. Lee says, “If these predictions do bear out,;that it’s just economically daunting. I mean, you have to be the Grim Reaper of reality in a world that isn’t real fond of the Grim Reaper. That’s why I use the term emotionally shut down, because I think you lose people at hello a lot of times in the Republican conversation over this.” Emotional reactions to climate change may include guilt, fear, anger, and apathy. Psychology Today, in an article titled “The Existential Dread of Climate Change, has suggested that “despair about our changing climate may get in the way of fixing it.” The American Psychological Association has urged psychologists and other social scientists to work on psychological barriers to taking action on climate change.

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[wanna-17]

KCON IN AUS FANACCOUNT

i haven’t written a fanaccount in so long and i usually do them on my main blog but i’ll do it here as this blog is active. just a warning, that this will be pretty long so i’ll do headings so you can scroll to the parts you’re interested in. here it goes!

CONTEXT 

so i went to kcon with my sister and my friend. my sister went on friday only cos she stans exo and my friend went both days bc of exo and wanna one (she actually had day 1 p2 only but then upgraded to combo p1 last minute through a good deal) we all got p1 eventually. when they announced kcon at first i was really only into exo, wanna one and pentagon and knew the other groups songs. but i commited to p1 and checked out all the groups adn i fell for all of them HARD as i watched a lot of variety shows and got to know their songs and music. i became a hardcore monsta x stan omg i even watched their survival show and all of monsta x ray.

TLDR; hi touched WANNA ONE, monsta x, pentagon and sf9!!! selfie with kevin woo

THURSDAY: CHECK IN 

i cheked in for my friend and sister and the funny thing is, they’re really only interested in exo and/or wanna one so i basically took all their benefits. so at first we had audience passes for all groups (except wanna one and monsta x lmao) and hi touch for victon, wanna one and girls day. i love victon though (saw them that day but will talk about it later). i first traded my victon hi touch for a sf9 hi touch. there was this super kind girl who was helping everyone trade and she was super sweet. there was someone wanting a girls day hi touch and they had victon. the trading girl advised me to trade cos sf9 are in higher demand than girls day so it’ll be easier to trade. i wanted a monsta x hi touch. so the girl tried to help me it didn’t work so i was getting really stressed as i had 2 sf9 hi touches with me. after 2 hours of running around like crazy i managed to trade one of the sf9 hi touches plus cosmic girls and girls day audience for a monsta x hi touch. wanna one and monsta x hi touch were both in high demand and people were selling them for hundreds (highest i heard was wanna one hi touch for 800) i was super lucky to have gotten wanna one hi touch on first go and also got the monsta x hi touch even though it took a while. i’m super grateful though bc tbh im probably the only person at kcon who got both monsta x and wanna one hi touch without paying any extra money. 

SEEING VICTON 

so as everyone knows i’m really multifandom so i was able to get into victon fairley well before the concert, like i could recognise about 4-5 members. as i was trying to trade my hi touches everyone started running towards a direction so i kinda walked there to check out what was happening. when i got there victon were sitting like at the bus stop and they were being filmed by staff and it was the video that was played on friday night!! they’re so cute and lovely. they kept waving at us.  especially sejun and seungsik. after that they headed back inside qudos and we were able to walk alongside them as long as we kept a distance they were super nice and kept waving at fans. i have a really good video on my phone, so let me know if you wanna see. also tbh, when i was watching their shows, i didn’t find them like HELLA ATTRACTIVE like only just attractive but seeing them so up close and in real life, they are so so beautiful, 100000x more handsome in real life. i was really shook. 

FRIDAY 

SF9 HI TOUCH 

my sister and i got to the venue just before 9.30 and i lined up for sf9 hi touch. it was a pretty long line but managed to get an okay spot  at around centre fourth row. im tiny so i couldn’t see well. we waited for about half an hour and my bae kevin woo appeared i love him so much. and he is literally the most beautiful and genuine guy ever. i’ll make a separate heading just to talk about kevin at the end omg. so sf9 they came in and it was pretty hectic but they’re all so beautiful and hwiyoung did push ups for the mission. then it was time for hi touch and i was not prepared at all. i watched for a while before going up. i was undecided about my bias between rowoon and taeyang but it got confimed to taeyang. i took soe pics of them interacting with fans and they were super sweet and handsome. when i went up to hi touch, youngbin was first and he was like lowkey my bias candidate too and hes just so beautiful and smiley?? i legit remember nothing but i think youngbin said thank you. rowoon was at the end and i told him i watched his drama and he gave me two thumbs up i have no idea if he actually heard me lmao. also told chani i love his dramas but he looked like a lost puppy so cute. i honestly don’t remember anything else but they were all super smiley and happy and some probably said hello or thank you. after i got down from hi touch all the original lines got messed up as expected so i ended up in the front right in front of taeyang and he literally glowed in the room. he kept staring and smiling at me and he waved a few times. oh yeah inseong another bias candidate was like WHATS UP and he was so happy. all the boys were in a good mood and spoke english really well. zuho’s gaze is really strong and mesmerising. also jaeyoon smiled and looked me in the eye. i really appreciated sf9 cos they made every attempt to look at each fan in the eye even though time was so short. it was really funny bc one girl kept making big hearts at the members and some made them back, i was so envious of her courage because i always blank out at hi touches. 

VICTON AUDIENCE 

so i was lowkey regretting trading my victon hi touch since i saw them on thursday and was like: they might remember me bc i was so close plus they’re so friendly and handsome. victon were the most friendly with their fans out of all the boy groups hi touches (yes lmao i got to watch all the boy groups and did 4) the pace was slow and security was chill. i guess it’s because they’re relatively new so not as many crazy fans. they were so genuine and patient and giving a lot of fan service to the fans. i instantly regretted not keeping my victon hi touch. they’d grab the fans hands and look them in the eye, bow and talk. most groups would just bow and smile and quick hi five. they were really amazing 

PENTAGON HI TOUCH

so lol my friend that upgraded to p1 (literally the day before) actually got a pentagon hi touch when i checked in for her so i used it as she was at home and gave my sister the pentagon audience pass. i had planned what to say to some of the members as i love pentagon. when they came out, i was blown away their visuals are so on point.  my bias is hongseok. i didn’t get a great spot but could see most of it. so as for hi touch, it was really embarrassing because i was wearing thongs (had heels in a plastic bag for the concert so i looked really trash and hobo) as i was going up the stairs I TRIPPED bc the girl behind me stepped on the back of my thong as i was going up the final step so it fell off and i almost lost my balance. i was already standing on the stage so i literally had to bend down to the bottom step to pick up my thong and put it back on and i think pentagon saw me bc the girl that was behind me was like apologising and made sure i was still in front of her lmao. i had a complete mind blank because i was so so embarrassed plus my thongs were orange and did not go along at all with what i was wearing. a part of me hopes that they saw me trip so at least it’s memorable and funny but in the moment i couldn’t look them in the eye or anything. yanan was first i mustered up my courage and said ni hao and jia you (hello and fighting in chinese lol) and my imagination tells me he said xie xie (thank you in chinese) he was so so handsome. dont remember order but hui and yuto both said thank you and their voices were low and it was so handsome??? kino was super smiley and happy and cUTE. i planned to tell hongseok that i was his fan since mix and match but i literally said half the sentence and he was already looking at the next person. lol tbh was slightly disappointed bc he was pretty stoned and doing the classic bow and hi five thing haha. 

RED CARPET 

lining up was a mess, basically some girl whose just a fan started a raffle thing early in the morning. but it wasn’t even official by promoters so it got scraped because after pentagon hi touch people started lining up and then that girl was suddenly like those with raffles come here and she tried to get them to the front but everyone else started telling her off lmao my sister went on fire and eventually that didn’t go ahead. im so glad that didn't go ahead bc it was basically against the rules. kcon officially stated that lining up for red carpet would start at a later time but ppl were getting there at 4am or camping out which is basically illegal anyways. so then all the different sections were separated to get into red carpet. my friend and i were very close to the front of  the line so eventually we got to the front row of our section. it was such a disorganised method lol. all the groups came on and everyone was just really handsome but tbh we were really far away even in front row so like after exo (2nd last group) everyone rushed to line up for entry into concert. it was chaotic. i was also in heels at this point and was running around like crazy. 

CONCERT 

my friend and i got in and like p1 is mostly behind platnium except for the end part which is like super close to second stage. so i ended up there at like row 3 or so my feet were killing me but luckily the girls in front of me were around the same height as me so i could see fairly well when idols were on the second stage (the front one). it was very difficult to see the main stage tho. kevin woo came out mc’ing for pre show and some dancers performed. lmao at this point my friend and another girl we met were basically sitting on the ground chilling. 

the concert finally started and sf9 were first. i couldn’t see much at first as they were on main stage BUT THEY CAME AND DID EASY LOVE WHICH I LOVE LOVE SO MUCH. i have a really good fancam of it ksdhqkdhqek and like idk guys they’re so beautiful. like i’ve watched sf9 vairety shows and im so glad i was in mosh so i was closer and could recognise them like if i were far away i probably would struggle too. they did a lot of fan service too. taeyang is so gorgeous he’s my bias for sure lmao

pretty sure pentagon were next THEY WERE SO GOOD TOO. i honestly dont remember much was trying to find hongseok and yanan . then it was victon i think, they were really great too but didn’t see them that well. it was kinda sad cos when hanse introduced himself there was obviously very little screams compared to sf9 and pentagon. i tried to scream but it wasn’t able to like echo through. 

GIRLS DAY QUEENS TBH bc i know them and all and was getting excited and then they did expectation and that was like my jam when it came out. hyeri and minah gave so much fan service and they’re so amazing and on point live i love them. 

omg chanyeol and seola did stay with me AND THAT IS ONE OF MY FAVE OSTS SO I WAS SO HAPPY AND IT WAS SO BEAUTIFUL AND I APPRECIATED IT SO MUCH lowkey felt bad tho cos everyone screamed whenever it was chanyeol’s part and most people didnt know it was seola. it was amazing tho defs one of my highlight performances on the night. 

so then the first 3 boy groups covered the top songs, so hard carry (MMY AHGASE HEART) fire and monster. they were so good

ALSO MC SEGMENTS. SUHO AND SEHUN WERE FIRST AND I DID NOT EXPECT THEM AND I SCREAMED SO HARD AND ALMOST CRIED. inseong and rowoon were the perfect pair, inseong’s english is amazing and they’re so funny. and they danced to like gangnam style, TT and gee. i can’t remember if there was a third set of mc’s

omg so when exo were about to come on I RAN OUT OF STORAGE AND NEARLY STARTED CRYING i had to delete my fancams from bts as well as the previous covers of hard carry, monster and fire cries. EXO WERE SO GOOD I CANT EVEN COMPREHEND IT WHEN THEY WERE DOING TENDER LOVE CHEN CAME OVER A LOT AS WELL AS KAI AND SEHUN i barely saw xiumin and suho. BAEKYEOL CAME OVER A LOT TOO. KAI WAS ACTUALLY SUPER CLOSE MY BIAS IS YIXING BUT SINCE HE WASNT TEHRE KAI IS MY BIAS AND OMG KYUNGSOO ALSO COULDN’t MAKE :( i have really good fancams of sehun, chen, kai, chanyeol and baekhyun KJHSKJWDGKJ

so for the ending, pentagon were on our side the most and e’dawn omg had his hoodie up and he was so effortlessly HOT he kept making peace signs and waving. jinho was there too. made eye contact OH AND I MADE QUITE A BIT OF EYE CONTACT WITH KAI DKUHQU CRIEs there were more interactions with so many ppl like waves and stuff but honestly don’t remember. sehun was the cutest, he was i think the last to leave and was waving at like everyone sobs my boy and yeah i was wearing heels during entire concert, red carpet AND sf9 hi touch so my feet were ded

SATURDAY 

UP10TION AUDIENCE

so i got there later at like 11.30 lmao right before up10tion audience where i’d help a friend film, i actually could have gotten a free up10tion hi touch but my friend likes them way more so my original friend with the pass sold it to her. while waiting in line, i made a friend who was super cool and chill and we kinda fangirled in the same way if that makes sense. like we got along well, liked kpop for similar amout of time and she wasn’t like a super delusional fan and just very nice and chill and we love the same groups soOOOO we clicked well. we were like very near the back of line and we were both filming for our friends anways so we just chilled at the back waiting for up10tion I LOVE XIAO THO we grabbed a chair and stood on it for like 20 seconds before being told off my security. XIAO WAS SO HOT THO WTHH HIS HAIR???? he’s so beautiful 98 liner forever omg i couldn’t take my eyes off him. yeah so we were just chilling at the back.

MONSTA X HI TOUCH 

well before up10tion had even started lines for monsta x and wanna one were already happening so rip me. i was near the back ish of the line and struggles i really wanted a front row spot but it was obviously impossible since all my audience engagements were back to back. i also made a friend and we got a selfie with kevin woo. lined up for a while and got in. i ended up like right on the side where i could see them come in but crap view of stage. THEY ARE SO SO SO BEAUTIFUL IN REAL LIFE freaking hyungwon TBH blew me away. my bias is changkyun and he was so cute when coming in and making his random movements. his english was just aksudkuqdkqu. ok so for actual hi touch, shownu was first and i blanked out bc hes so gorgeous. hyungwon WAS SO HAPPY like he was so smiley and made eye contact and everything i think he was my fave person to hi touch??? maybe??? i told wonho not to lose weight (in light of what happened recently on his v app) but unsure if he even heard or understood me bc he was just nodding and smiling so beautifully at me. i told changkyun he’s my favourite but dont even remember if i got to finish my sentence or not or whether he even heard or replied to me. kihyun was gorgeous i dont know if i said i liked his voice (that was my plan lmao) or just a hello. i think i generally just end up stuttering a hello or thank you. minhyuk was last and he didn’t look that happy???? he’s probably tired tbh. so when monsta x were exiting i was like on the barrier near the stairs again with the new friend i made. so when monsta x did their end greetings they came down to hi touch front row fans again my arms are short so i missed out on some. i know i definitely got another hi touch from changkyun SOBS MY BABY BOY, wonho, hyungwon and possibly shownu too. i know i missed kihyun and was devo

WANNA ONE HI TOUCH

this was a nightmare lining up omg as soon as i got out of monsta x, the line for wanna one was already ridiculously long and i was contemplating on not even lining up. i also didn’t get to make friends with fans bc the people around me were in their 30s/40s so it was difficult to communicate or chinese fans which were so annoying cos they were constantly letting others in and out there was so much pushing in. thai fans as well omg wth. tbh i was paranoid for all of the audience engagements bc they suddenly had a new rule where no water bottle allowed unless sealed but for friday i openly went in with my 1L water bottle and no one said anything. it was all fine the day before but for up10tion no water bottle was allowed so i gave it to a stranger in monsta x line and when i got out she had left it in a visible spot next to the bin. but for monsta x and wanna one, the security guard allowed water bottles it was just so inconsistent and stressed me out. 

for wanna one, pushing was crazy when entering. once again i ended up like next to the stairs where they would go up so i couldn’t even see the stage rip. it was such a hard a wait but omg they finally came out and i couldn’t believe it they were so gorgeous. daehwi was being so extra and some were waving. everyone sang happy birthday to guanlin. tbh im most disappoiinted in wanna on hi touch bc they didn’t even do missions beforehand??? and the hi touch was super rushed security guards were so pushy and violent and there was no time to do or say anything some fans might have even missed out on a hi touch with some members. like i understand that security was probably much tighter as wanna one are super popular so they dont want the members getting hurt and stuff. i was just so upset because i had a crap view and also didn’t get to say what i planned to. like guanlin was first so i said happy birthday in chinese but i dont think he heard or even if he did i dunno if he replied. i told seongwoo i love you but like there was literally not enough  time to process their replies, they were all smiling though. i think i told jihoon i love him, i had the best thing planned to say to daehwi but he was bowing and gazing at me and i kinda blanked for the 1931319th time that day, his smile is so beautiful. i either told daniel to be healthy or that he was my favourite but looking at him so up close was too much for me. i dont even remember what happened for every other member they were just smiling at me and hi fiving. some probably said thank you and hello and stuff. omg minhyun tho SO BEAUTIFUL he was in such a good mood and gave me a really hard hi five and his smile is so beauiful. the moment i got off the stage, regret swept through me, i’d planned to do the jisung clap to jisung but i was so scared of security like tbh even if i did it, what could they do to me? at most push me but at least jisung might remember me lol. the wanna one hi touch was so bad and rushed and after it ended wanna one just left. they walked past again but unlike monsta x they didn’t hi  five any one but maybe thats the instructions they were given. i was honestly disappointed, i’m glad i didn’t spend money for a wanna on hi touch though bc it was just dumb and ppl were selling audience passes for like 200

CONCERT 

omg i was actually in the same spot as the previous day except on the other side cos they swapped sides. the only problem was that there was this super tall girl in front of me and she had heels on too...that was really annoying cos she completely blocked my view :( at this point i was feeling pretty gross and dizzy and even more annoyed as i couldn’t even see the damn stage. 

sf9 started and they were amazing as usual, then it was up10tion I COULDNT EVEN SEE ANYONE OR ANYTHING COULDNT SEE MY BIAS XIAO AND HE LOOKED SUPER FINE AT AUDIENCE ENGAGEMENT. then it was cosmic girls and omg this girl near me had the highest pitch screams ever and she’d do a high pitch scream every 5 seconds my eardrums were legit about to die and then this guy behind me spat all over me when cosmic girls came out...it was so unpleasant lmao

THEN WANNA ONE SDHKSDUKSYUKD everyone pushed even more forward when wanna one started. they played like a video but i couldn’t even see the screens :( they did energetic first and it was on main stage so i couldn’t see a single thing. then they did wanna be my baby and they walked to the front stage halfway through and i could see like a teeny bit. then they did pinata time and INTRODUCED THEMSELEVES GUANLIN WAS ON MY SIDE and daehwi is legit the cutest he was straight up like: guys this isn’t on the script but it’s guanlin’ birthday so let’s sing happy birthday. daehwi is like friend goals he’s so caring towards everyone and his english is the nicest and most soothing thing ever. everyone was screaming so much and pushing and it was really hard to see. but then they did like pinata time where it was like younger boys vs. older boys team and younger boys had to be sexy THEY DIDNT COME OVEr tO MY SIDE AT ALL but i saw some fancams and woojin full on did the thigh move and daniel was cringing hahaha and daehwi was being extra as usual. the hyungs came over more AND THEY HAD TO BE CUTE AND DANIEL WAS LIKE ALMOST SITTING ON THE STAGE IN FRONT OF ME AND POSING AND HE WAS SUCH A CUTE BUNNY he’s so extra and everyone was pushing so hard :( jisung did the peace sign and he’s so cute. i like legit did not see half the  members for the whole concert :( 

OH YEAH SO MONSTA X BLEW MY HEART AWAY THEY WERE SO PERFECT AND LIKE WHEN KIHYUN AND CHANGKYUN WERE MC’ING KHKWHWKU their english. they’re like my two biases (kihyun and hyungwon are bias wreckers tho) and like wonho came down to propsal to the girl that was sorta near us so all of monsta x were crowded around my side of stage and they WERE SO CLOSe their performances were amazing lowkey wish they did newton BUT THEY DID HERO AND FIGHTER WHICH IS AMAZING AND EX GIRL I LOVE MONSTA X SO MUCH. and changkhyun was being al greasy he was like to the girl: angel, why are you here? what about heaven I NEARLY CRIED OMG HE SSO BEAUTIFUL LIYWFDHKWYF wonho is super fine and kind i just love them so much 

BUT OMG AT THE END YOUNGBIN AND THE REST OF SF9 WERE ON MY SIDE AND YOUNGBIN STARTED TAKING FANS PHONES AND TAKING SELFIES WITH THEM OR VIDEOS AND MY ARM WAS JUST TOO SHORT AND HE WAS SO CLOSE TO TAKING MINE BUT I MISSED OUT KHKJSDGKWULICUSLU 

alright this was such a crap fan account BC SO MUCH HAPPENS AT KCON AND ITS SO HARD TO REMEMBER EVERYTHING MAY ADD MORE THINGS LATER but if you read the the end you are a legend

and yes i said hi to kevin woo like every time i was in audience engagement and also got a selfie with him!! he’s honestly the sweetest and kindest guy ever and super chill!! and honestly like monsta x were so so amazing 

ok i think i need to end this here lmao i will post my hi touches and my selfie with kevin woo on my blog too!! ^^ thank you guys1! 

oh yeah ok and like i hardcore stan every group that was at kcon now bYe 

[andymull]

WWE Money In The Bank - Preview & Predictions

Becky Lynch (c) vs Charlotte Flair: WWE Smackdown Live Women’s Championship Match

One of the champions two defenses on this show after being crowned the champ champ at Wrestlemania, I know previously we weren't sure if they would have the two belts be combined and just have the champ rule over both shows, but this makes it definite that there are still two titles and they will be separate to each show once one person doesn't own them both.

I would imagine the main event of this show will be between this bout and the men’s Money In The Bank (MITB) match, I imagine the men’s bout takes it in a late decision with them deciding that based on Becky probably coming into this second title defense with a ‘knock’ and having to work from the bottom against Charlotte so they’ll want the fresher wrestlers main eventing the show (yeah I know that doesn't make much sense but if Beckys selling alot it will be Vince foremost thought).

I did have Becky winning this and continuing on as a double champion for a while yet, but, I actually see it different today after thinking about an injury being something they add to this bout following on from her first match. Make it Becky getting a slight twisted knee in the first match against Evans and still winning, but against Charlotte she zero’s in on the knee building to her finisher and title win. That way they can have Lynch drop the title and blame it one having to wrestle twice in one night and Charlotte taking advantage of a bad knee, lets Becky stay on Raw as champion and also adds another layer to Becky/Charlotte for when they feud again in the future. But at the same time I wouldn't be surprised for Lynch to retain against both women and carry the champ champ gimmick for longer, if its a ratings success in her segments and shes still moving big numbers of merchandise that is....  - CHARLOTTE 

Seth Rollins (c) vs AJ Styles - WWE Universal Title Match

I get the feeling this match will be given good time in the middle of the show but will get overlooked due to the placement on the card sadly. Two great wrestlers here and the match should be quality, the hype videos have been superb showing both guys alot younger and their progressions to get to this point from wrestling each other pre WWE.

Im not keen on the slight heel actions of Styles in the build up here, but sometimes they have issues when having title matches be face vs face and have to go back and have one of them play the slight heel. I imagine once this feuds wrapped up that Styles goes back to being 100% face and quickly going into another feud.

In terms of a winner here we cant look past Rollins retaining his belt, he isnt dropping it this quickly and nor should he. For me his reign hasn't felt anything special just yet, so hopefully this can be the springboard in having a great match and that leading to him being THE focus of Raw for the next few weeks - ROLLINS

Kofi Kingston (c) vs Kevin Owens - WWE Championship Match

Is it just me that isnt feeling the Kofi title win? In a different way to Rollins in that Kofi doesn't seem a champion to me at all yet, him wearing the world title looks weird and most weeks has been in matches featuring guys better than him and all I can see is other wrestlers that should be holding that belt, not sure that’s the way I should be thinking lol

In my head I feel they may think about swapping the belt early, may just be me though, I feel Owens as a heel champion has more legs to it than Kofi as champion does - OWENS 

Roman Reigns vs Elias

Im glad that Elias is getting a big feud here against Roman after moving to Smackdown Live, and hopefully they get some decent time here for Elias to show some fire and talent and not just revert to rest holds like they have him do usually on tv.

But lets not get mistaken here, there’s no chance Elias is winning unless multiple people run in to cost Reigns the win - REIGNS

The Miz vs Shane McMahon - Cage Match

We all know this company, Shane won at Wrestlemania so Miz wins here to make it 50/50. Shane goes for a big stunt from the top, Miz attempts to look a tough guy fighting in the cage while Shane runs away - MIZ

Becky Lynch (c) vs Lacey Evans - WWE Raw Women’s Championship Match

The second title match on the PPV for Becky against the newest threat for her belt in Lacey Evans, sorry The Sassy Southern Belle Lacey Evans. 

Im glad they have had Evans hold her ground in brawls with Lynch, she really needs to and also needs them to build her as a past Marine in having her be as tough as anyone and be able to gain a deadly focus in the ring due to it, give her a deadly touch as well as her being a ‘lady’.

I see Becky retaining this belt as the safest bet in her two matches, while at the same time I see this being the feud they carry on with after the show with Becky remaining on Raw. So, they will have to be careful in how they have Lacey beaten and not done so in too much of a dominate fashion. In my preview of the Charlotte match I mentioned her gaining a slight injury in this match, so, lets go with her getting a slight knee injury and beats Evans with a lucky roll-up. That leaves them open to carry on the feud as its a lucky finish and the heel can gain the rematch on Raw no problem - LYNCH

Ember Moon vs Mandy Rose vs Dana Brooke vs Nikki Cross vs Bayley vs Nattie vs Naomi vs Carmella - Women’s MITB Ladder Match

It seems that yet again the women get pulled from house shows the weekend before a big match to prepare it all out, I bet the guys wish they had that option sometimes....

Firstly, im really glad that Dana is getting the big opportunity here, she’s been doing her best in every chance she gets in the ring and has gotten some good reactions from the crowds, especially the Wrestlemania crowd.

Secondly, Alexa Bliss has been dropped from this bout and replaced with Cross, the company really need to be analysing Bliss in the same ways they do Bryan with his head issues. She really shouldn't have been brought back for the Rumble and the odd other match she’s had since as she doesn't seem ready to get back in the ring, with reports she has been throwing up backstage after a match which as a sign of concussions. She really needs to be wrapped in cotton wool for awhile longer and given access to the best doctors to double check everything rather than just using the companies own doctors.

Now onto the match, in terms of potential winners I have it down to Bayley, Moon, Rose and Carmella. I think all of them if given the briefcase will need alot of work in building them up ready to be a threat, but, I see them all more than capable of getting back into the title scene and ready to take the title in afew months or rebuilding. Rose probably needs the least build as she’s been ok, but the others either due to injury or not being the focus of a push and taking a number of defeats or being treated as a comedy act need that change to make them looked at more seriously again.

Out of those girls Ill go with Bayley, she’s been treated like a joke since Wrestlemania and bring traded to Smackdown in not getting a win. This should give them the imperative to focus back on her to build her back up, its so needed with Bayley that its a joke they have missed so much with how they've treated her since her call up from NXT its unbelievable - BAYLEY

Andrade vs Ricochet vs Drew McIntyre vs Finn Balor vs Sami Zayn vs The Baron vs Ali vs Randy Orton - Men’s MITB Ladder Match

I really like 90% of this match (get lost The Baron) and it should lead to some fun spots throughout, I also see them having re-watched the ladder match for the NXT North American title from last year and taking some of the spots from with how well that match did being a 5 star rated bout.

Personally I only see Drew winning this match and being a constant threat on nearly every Raw standing over the champion or watching him menacingly, then decimating him for the title and making himself the new main eventer in the company.

When looking at the others I guess I could see other winners in Andrade, Ricochet, Balor or Ali. Ali and Andrade would need some very solid pushes and focus but would lead to some very fresh threats around the world title scene, and that’s something they are desperate for lately so may be a factor in deciding the potential winner tonight. Ricochet and Balor are guys I would have zero problem in pushing them big time through the summer for the world title, as both guys will fit in there no problem, I just dont see it yet sadly - MCINTYRE

Samoa Joe (c) vs Rey Mysterio

A rematch following their very short Mania match due to Rey having an injury that he is now fully recovered from, this will definitely get more time than that.

I do still think this feud will continue on longer and will potentially feature more appearances from Dominic, I even have a slight feeling that he turns heel on his dad at some point, dont ask why I just do lol

I dont see a title change occurring here, and continue to say what ive mentioned previously in that id be building Joe monthly as a killer with the plan of having him ready for the world title come the end of the year - JOE

Tony Nese (c) vs Ariya Daivari - WWE Cruiserweight Title Match

Sorry but ive stopped caring about this title after Murphy dropped the belt and moved to Smackdown to not be used much, 205 Live NEED more/new talent on their roster quickly to keep peoples interests, please - NESE

Rowan & Daniel Bryan (c) vs The Uso’s - Non Title Match - Kickoff Show

Gutted for these guys in being demoted to the kick of show, get ready to be interrupted by ads in the middle of your match with no-one watching.

Its a non title match so they usually result in the challengers gaining the win setting them up for a title match next, and with the lack of depth in the Smackdown tag ranks they really shouldn't have the Uso’s lose...................................................As long as the wildcards can win the titles on the show they are visiting that is - USOS

Hopefully everyone enjoys the show, and we potentially could have some decent surprises with the winners in the MITB matches, leading to us all having our imaginations run wild in the potential cash ins and how they could occur

Bye for now

Andy

[patriotsnet]

What Happens If Republicans Win Midterms

New Post has been published on https://www.patriotsnet.com/what-happens-if-republicans-win-midterms/

What Happens If Republicans Win Midterms

Gop Lawmakers Threaten To Punish Democrats If They Win Back Control Of Congress

‘When we take the majority back in 2022, I’ll make sure consequences are doled out,’ said Rep. Madison Cawthorn.

Republicans are outraged that Democrats are governing by majority rule in the House. In retaliation, they are vowing to do the same things they now decry as unprecedented and wrong.

“Never in the history of our country has a Speaker acted like such an authoritarian,” House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy on Thursday.

He was upset that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi had his request to appoint Republican Reps. Jim Banks and Jim Jordan to the Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the U.S. Capitol. Both men voted to overturn the 2020 election results and pushed the lie that President Joe Biden only won because the election was stolen.

“Never in the history of Congress and the select committee I checked with the historian has this ever taken place, where the one party decides who’s all on the committee,” McCarthy told Fox News in a video he with his tweet. McCarthy in fact to give Republican then-Speaker John Boehner the exact same unilateral appointment power in 2014 for the Select Committee on the Events Surrounding the 2012 Terrorist Attack in Benghazi.

But while House Republicans claim they are being mistreated because the majority won’t let them have their way, they are also promising to retaliate by turning the same actions they criticize now against Democrats in 2023.

TAGS

‘the Beast Is Growing’: Republicans Follow A Winning At All Costs Strategy Into The Midterms

Much remains uncertain about the midterm elections more than a year away including the congressional districts themselves, thanks to the delayed redistricting process. The Senate, meanwhile, looks like more of a toss-up.

House Democrats think voters will reward them for advancing President Joe Biden’s generally popular , which involves showering infrastructure money on virtually every district in the country and sending checks directly to millions of parents. And they think voters will punish Republicans for their rhetoric about the Covid-19 pandemic and the 2020 election.

“Democrats are delivering results, bringing back the economy, getting people back to work, passing the largest middle-class tax cut in history, while Republicans are engaged in frankly violent conspiracy theory rhetoric around lies in service of Donald Trump,” said Tim Persico, executive director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

But the challenges Democrats face are real and numerous.

They knew they would face a tough 2022 immediately after 2020, when massive, unexpected GOP gains whittled the Democratic majority to just a handful of seats.

“House Republicans are in a great position to retake the majority,” said Rep. Tom Emmer, R-Minn., who chairs the National Republican Congressional Committee, “but we are taking nothing for granted.”

His rural district had been trending Republican for years. Kind won re-election last year by just about 10,000 votes.

What If The Republicans Win Everything Again

Total victory for the G.O.P. would mean Trump unleashed.

Opinion Columnist

The end of Robert Muellers investigation. The loss of health insurance for several million people. New laws that make it harder to vote. More tax cuts for the rich. More damage to the environment. A Republican Party molded even more in the image of President Trump.

These are among the plausible consequences if the Republicans sweep the midterm elections and keep control of both the House and Senate. And dont fool yourself. That outcome, although not the most likely one, remains possible. The last couple of weeks of polling have shown how it could happen.

Voters who lean Republican including whites across the South could set aside their disappointment with Trump and vote for Republican congressional candidates. Voters who lean left including Latinos and younger adults could turn out in low numbers, as they usually do in midterm elections. The Republicans continuing efforts to suppress turnout could also swing a few close elections.

No matter what, Democrats will probably win the popular vote in the House elections, for the first time since 2012. Trump, after all, remains unpopular. But the combination of gerrymandering and the concentration of Democratic voters in major cities means that a popular-vote win wont automatically translate into a House majority.

I Do Not Buy That A Social Media Ban Hurts Trumps 2024 Aspirations: Nate Silver

All Videos

sarah: Yeah, Democrats might not have their worst Senate map in 2022, but it will by no means be easy, and how they fare will have a lot to do with the national environment. And as we touched on earlier, Bidens overall approval rating will also make a big difference in Democrats midterm chances.

nrakich: Yeah, if the national environment is even a bit Republican-leaning, that could be enough to allow solid Republican recruits to flip even Nevada and New Hampshire. And then it wouldnt even matter if Democrats win Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

One thing is for sure, though whichever party wins the Senate will have only a narrow majority, so I think were stuck in this era of moderates like Sens. Joe Manchin and Lisa Murkowski controlling every bills fate for at least a while longer. 

sarah: Lets talk about big picture strategy, then, and where that leaves us moving forward. Its still early and far too easy to prescribe election narratives that arent grounded in anything, but one gambit the Republican Party seems to be making at this point is that attacking the Democratic Party for being too progressive or woke will help them win.

What do we make of that playbook headed into 2022? Likewise, as the party in charge, what are Democrats planning for?

With that being said, the GOPs strategies could still gin up turnout among its base, in particular, but its hard to separate that from general dissatisfaction with Biden.

The 2024 Presidential Election Will Be Close Even If Trump Is The Gop Nominee

One very important thing we should have all taken away from both the 2016 and 2020 presidential contests is that the two major parties are in virtual equipose . The ideological sorting-out of the two parties since the 1960s has in turn led to extreme partisan polarization, a decline in ticket-splitting and and in number of genuine swing voters. Among other things, this has led to an atmosphere where Republicans have paid little or no price for the extremism theyve disproportionately exhibited, or for the bad conduct of their leaders, most notably the 45th president.

Indeed, the polarized climate encourages outlandish and immoral base mobilization efforts of the sort Trump deployed so regularly. Some Republicans partisans shook their heads sadly and voted the straight GOP ticket anyway, And to the extent there were swing voters they tended strongly to believe that both parties were equally guilty of excessive partisanship, and/or that all politicians are worthless scum, so why not vote for the worthless scum under whom the economy hummed?

The bottom line is that anyone who assumes Republicans are in irreversible decline in presidential elections really hasnt been paying attention.

Republicans Set To Rebound Big In 2022 Midterms Unless

We are just 600 short days away from the 2022 midterm elections, which means it is the perfect time to handicap the Republicans chances to win back the House, Senate and prepare a serious challenge to President Biden

Patrick Joseph ToomeyBlack women look to build upon gains in coming electionsWatch live: GOP senators present new infrastructure proposalSasse rebuked by Nebraska Republican Party over impeachment vote already have Democrats scrambling to flip those seats in much easier electoral terrain.

As I noted in The Hill last month, Republicans are on the hook to defend 20 of their seats in 2022, while Team Blue has just 14 seats to hold, all in states won by Joe Biden in 2020. Since March is a perfect month for sports analogies, a good defense provides for a strong offense when the status quo is Democrats retaining control of the upper chamber. While there is clearly a power in incumbency, FiveThirtyEight suggests that senate vacancies are actually more of a mixed bag. In election cycles since 1974, the party with the most Senate retirements has actually gained seats just as often as it has lost them. For every year like 2008, when more Republicans than Democrats retired and Republicans lost seats accordingly, theres a year like 2012, when a whopping seven Democrats retired yet the party picked up two Senate seats.

How these various Rs play out in the next few months will determine if the Rs are successful in 2022.

Rising Violent Crime Is Likely To Present A Political Challenge For Democrats In 2022

But there are roadblocks to fully enacting Democrats’ agenda. Their thin majorities in both chambers of Congress mean nearly all Democrats have to get on board with every agenda item in order to push through major legislative priorities. And without adjusting or eliminating the legislative filibuster in the Senate, Democrats need 10 Republicans to join them for various legislation a near-impossible task.

Renewable Energy And Health Care Among The Sectors That Could Get Shakeup Due To Midterms

The 2022 midterm elections are already affecting Washington, and the results could shake up sectors such as renewable energy, health care and finance.

As Democrats in Washington work to deliver on infrastructure spending and other priorities, theyre trying to make progress in large part because of a key event thats still more than a year away.

That event is the midterm elections on Nov. 8, 2022, when Republicans will aim to take back control of the House and Senate and become a more powerful check on the priorities of President Joe Biden and his fellow Democrats.

What leaders are thinking about, particularly since we have unified party control, is that these midterm elections are inevitably a referendum on the governing party, said Sarah Binder, a senior fellow in governance studies at the Brookings Institution and a professor of political science at George Washington University in Washington, D.C.

In that sense, shrinking time coupled with What is it that Democrats want to run on? it adds pressure on Democrats to get their priorities through the door.

Time is growing short, Binder said, because party leaders often avoid making their members vote on tough issues in the same calendar year as an election, since that can hurt incumbents in tight races. Party leaders often think primarily about what they can get done in the first year of a Congress, as opposed to counting on the second year, she said.

Sectors that could win or lose

Year

Races worth watching

Can Democrats Avoid A Wipeout In 2022

Bidens plan: Go big or go home.

The good news for Democrats who watched Joe Biden unveil a historically ambitious agenda last night is that newly elected presidents have almost always passed some version of their core economic planparticularly when their party controls both congressional chambers, as Bidens does now.

The bad news: Voters have almost always punished the presidents party in the next midterm election anyway. The last two times Democrats had unified controlwith Bill Clinton in 199394 and Barack Obama in 200910they endured especially resounding repudiations in the midterms, which cost Clinton his majority in both chambers and Obama the loss of the House.

Theres a very different strategy this time, David Price, a Democratic representative from North Carolina and a former political scientist, told me. Theres an openness now to the sense that a bolder plan, ironically, might have greater appeal for independents and others we need to attract than trying to trim and split the difference with Republicans.

Read: The GOP cheat code to winning back the House

There is this recognition of this moment and how fleeting it is, and an evaluation that, absent the trifecta of control, it is very hard to move big policy, said a senior official at one of the partys leading outside advocacy groups, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal strategizing. So you have to take your shot. I think thats part of what undergirds Go big.

What If Republicans Win The Midterms

March 3, 2018

WASHINGTON A sizable portion of the American population has been convulsing with outrage at President Trump for more than a year. Millions of people who previously took only mild interest in politics have participated in protests, fumed as they stayed riveted to news out of Washington and filled social media accounts once devoted to family updates and funny videos with furious political commentary.

Yet public life on the whole has remained surprisingly calm. A significant factor in keeping the peace has surely been anticipatory catharsis: The widespread expectations of a big Democratic wave in the coming midterm elections are containing and channeling that indignation, helping to maintain order.

What will happen if no such wave materializes and that pressure-relief valve jams shut?

The country was already badly polarized before the plot twist of election night in 2016, of course, but since then liberals and much of what remains of Americas moderate center have been seething in a way that dwarfs the usual disgruntlement of whichever faction is out of power. While nobody can know for sure whether Mr. Trump would have lost but for Russias meddling, many of his critics clearly choose to believe he is in the White House because Vladimir Putin tricked the United States into making him its leader.

This November, if the wave turns out to be a mere trickle, we could see the accomplishment of that goal take hold.

Poll: Republicans Set To Win House Back In Massive Landslide

Republicans are set to win back the House in a historic landslide in 2022, according to a poll conducted by NBC News.

Based on all factors, youd have to consider Republicans the early favorites for the House majority in 2022, poll tracker David Wasserman NBC.

Democrats best hope is that Bidens approval rating stays above 50 percent and that Republicans have a tougher time turning out their voters without Trump on the ballot.

reports: The NBC report cites the all-too-predictable trend of the presidents party losing House seats in midterm elections, Democrats choosing not to run for reelection in some cases, and Republicans reaping the benefits of increased online donations, which are now on par with those of Democrats.

It is early, too early, to guarantee the Democrats loss of their slim 220-212 House majority. Voters wont hit the polls for almost 15 months, and things often have a way of changing on a dime in the world of politics. But the early signs certainly arent encouraging for the Democrats, especially as President Joe Bidens approval rating has taken a hit in recent weeks. American voters are being bombarded with images of a completely bungled withdrawal of Afghanistan and headlines about increased COVID hospitalizations and deaths. Inflation is also becoming a growing concern each month, contrary to the hopes of the Federal Reserve, and the crisis at the southern border shows no signs of abating.

Colwell: Republicans Are Likely To Win Control Of The House Next Year But

Three reasons why Republicans are very likely to take control of the House next year involve things over which Democrats have little or no control.

There is, however, one reason why Democrats might be able somehow to hang on to their slim majority. And they do have better prospects of at least holding on to the 50-50 Senate tie.

Reasons for Republicans winning control of the House:

FIRST: History is on their side. The party out of the White House almost always makes big gains in the first midterm election in a new presidency. In those midterm elections since the end of World War II, the average loss for the presidents party has been 29 seats. Democrats lost 63 seats in the 2010 midterm after election of President Barack Obama. Republicans lost 40 seats in the 2018 midterm after election of Donald Trump.

Because Democrats already lost seats in 2020, even as Joe Biden won the presidency, Republicans need only a net of five seats to win the majority. Democrats cant go back to 2020 to win more seats.

Factors in midterm losses for the presidents party include voters wanting a check on the president and disillusionment over any presidents inability to bring about everything voters hoped for.

SECOND: Redistricting after the census will result in many more safe Republican seats. Thats because Republicans control state legislatures in far more states than do Democrats. Both parties gerrymander. But it is the GOP controlling district drawing in many more states.

Site Map

Republicans In Decent Shape To Win House Majority In 2022

Washington Examiner

It is never preferable to be in the minority party in a legislative body. But as far as minorities go, House Republicans are in a pretty good spot.

Between the trend of midterm elections usually the party that is not in the White House, a closely divided House, and a party apparatus ready to continue their expectations-exceeding 2020 strategy while Democrats rework theirs, Republicans are on track to winning back the House in 2022.

“It has the makings of what could be a good year for the Republicans when it comes to the House,” said J. Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.

President Bidens approval rating is around 53%, and while he is not underwater, history indicates he would need to bump that rating up by at least 10 points in order to have a shot at gaining seats. Gallup analysis found that even presidents with approval ratings of 50% during the midterm elections averaged a loss of about 14 House seats from their own party.

That would be enough to bump Republicans back into the majority. Democrats have the slimmest House majority since 1930, currently 221 seats to 210 GOP seats .

Republicans in the 2020 cycle shattered the expectations of analysts who forecasted Democrats to gain House seats in 2020. Not a single Republican incumbent lost the election, and they picked off 13 incumbent Democrats.

But it is not all smooth sailing for Republicans.

Why We Arent Going To Panic

We should all have our eyes wide open as we inch closer to the 2022 Midterms, but by no means should we give up hope. There are plenty of reasons why we can win the midterms.

For starters, Democrats appear to be quite awake to how dangerous the Republican party has become in just the past few years. And since the Republicans dont appear to be any less radicalized with Trump out of the party, I dont think Democrats are going to go back to sleep.

At this point in the election cycle, we dont have a full picture of who is retiring from Congress or who the candidates will be for these seats. Getting great candidates for crucial, must-win seats can energize voters and donors.

Presidential approval seems to have an important effect on midterms and at this point, Bidens approval rating is 15 points higher than his disapproval. If he continues to do good things for Americans and keep his approval rating high, that will help the Democrats a lot.

So, lets approach this midterm as clearly as possible: Our democracy is still on the line, and as awful as the Republicans are, they are in striking position to win back some power in Congress. Each of us needs to do everything we can to ensure that does not happen. If you arent already, consider subscribing to Political Charge as Ill be delving into specific actions we can take every month!

If you want to win the midterms, please share this post with others who want to win, too!

Republicans Will Likely Take Control Of The Senate By 2024

The usual midterm House losses by the White House party dont always extend to the Senate because only a third of that chamber is up for election every two years and the landscape sometimes strongly favors the presidential party . But there a still generally an out-party wave that can matter, which is why Republicans may have a better than average chance of winning in at least some of the many battleground states that will hold Senate elections next year . If they win four of the six youll probably be looking at a Republican Senate.

But its the 2024 Senate landscape that looks really promising for the GOP. Democrats will be defending 23 seats and Republicans just 10. Three Democratic seats, and all the Republican seats, are in states Trump carried twice. Four other Democratic seats are in states Trump won once. It should be a banner year for Senate Republicans.

Balance Of Power: 2022 Senate Races

If Democrats want to win the again, they need to win the four competitive seats they currently hold Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire. That or augment any loss with a gain in any of their three competitive targets Pennsylvania, , or North Carolina.

This Senate preview still holds up, but the shorter version is Democrats are easily favored in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. They should also win New Hampshire if Chris Sununu doesnt run .

The thing is, theyre also favored to win in Pennsylvania, where they have a strong field of primary candidates and where Joe Biden won.

They have to be no worse than, and admittedly probably better than, a tossup in Wisconsin, where Republicans have candidate issues and Democrats have a strong likely nominee.

So even if New Hampshire goes Republican because of some local candidate factors, Democrats are in a good spot to win the Senate again.

That means if youre trying to make a bet, you can essentially box out two of four combinations where the GOP wins the Senate, and focus your attention on the two remaining options, if youre looking for the values.

The 1858 Midterm Election

November 2, 1858

There is always a lull after a tempest, and so the political world has subsided into an unwonted calm since the election, commented a reporter for The New York Times. The Republicans are naturally . . . exultant over their sweeping victories. Such a commentary might apply to any number of elections, but this reporter described the outcome of a particularly historic electionthe midterm election of 1858. The Republican success that year was especially remarkable because the Republican Party was only four years old.

Almost by spontaneous combustion, the Republican Party burst forth in 1854 in response to the controversial Kansas-Nebraska Act. For decades, Americas political battles had been fought between the Democrats and the Whigs. By the early 1850s, however, the issue of slavery had splintered the Whigs into warring factions and divided Democrats between north and south. When Democratic senator Stephen Douglas pushed his Kansas-Nebraska bill to passage, including its proposal to settle the issue of slavery by popular sovereignty, the uproar among northern abolitionists and anti-slavery activists was too fierce to be contained by the ailing Whig Party. As one person commented, The Whigs were simply not angry enough.

The Future Could Actually Be Bright For Republicans

Ed Kilgore

The most common political narrative outside MAGA-land is that the Republican Party is screwed, and richly deserves the ignominious future it faces.

Until recently the GOP was a reasonably normal and intermittently successful center-right political party, not wildly different from its counterparts in other countries with a two-party system, despite some racist and militarist habits that burst into view in times of stress. But then America elected a Black president, and Republicans went a little crazy, according to those outside their circles. First they abetted a destructively antediluvian Tea Party Movement and then lurched into the arms of an evil charlatan who somehow got elected president and spent four years trashing hallowed conservative principles and losing both Congress and the White House before his disgraceful and violence-inflected departure.

Worse yet, in the face of huge demographic challenges that beg for a new approach, the Republican Party has now lashed itself to a Trumpian mast going forward, following the most consistently unpopular president in American history in his bizarre crusade to deny he has ever lost anything. Meanwhile a shockingly united Democratic Party is whipping a few decades worth of liberal legislation through Congress as Republicans whine about cancel culture and try to sell the idea that Joe Biden is actually Che Guevara.

[patriotsnet]

What Happens If Republicans Win Midterms

New Post has been published on https://www.patriotsnet.com/what-happens-if-republicans-win-midterms/

What Happens If Republicans Win Midterms

Gop Lawmakers Threaten To Punish Democrats If They Win Back Control Of Congress

‘When we take the majority back in 2022, I’ll make sure consequences are doled out,’ said Rep. Madison Cawthorn.

Republicans are outraged that Democrats are governing by majority rule in the House. In retaliation, they are vowing to do the same things they now decry as unprecedented and wrong.

“Never in the history of our country has a Speaker acted like such an authoritarian,” House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy on Thursday.

He was upset that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi had his request to appoint Republican Reps. Jim Banks and Jim Jordan to the Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the U.S. Capitol. Both men voted to overturn the 2020 election results and pushed the lie that President Joe Biden only won because the election was stolen.

“Never in the history of Congress and the select committee I checked with the historian has this ever taken place, where the one party decides who’s all on the committee,” McCarthy told Fox News in a video he with his tweet. McCarthy in fact to give Republican then-Speaker John Boehner the exact same unilateral appointment power in 2014 for the Select Committee on the Events Surrounding the 2012 Terrorist Attack in Benghazi.

But while House Republicans claim they are being mistreated because the majority won’t let them have their way, they are also promising to retaliate by turning the same actions they criticize now against Democrats in 2023.

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‘the Beast Is Growing’: Republicans Follow A Winning At All Costs Strategy Into The Midterms

Much remains uncertain about the midterm elections more than a year away including the congressional districts themselves, thanks to the delayed redistricting process. The Senate, meanwhile, looks like more of a toss-up.

House Democrats think voters will reward them for advancing President Joe Biden’s generally popular , which involves showering infrastructure money on virtually every district in the country and sending checks directly to millions of parents. And they think voters will punish Republicans for their rhetoric about the Covid-19 pandemic and the 2020 election.

“Democrats are delivering results, bringing back the economy, getting people back to work, passing the largest middle-class tax cut in history, while Republicans are engaged in frankly violent conspiracy theory rhetoric around lies in service of Donald Trump,” said Tim Persico, executive director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

But the challenges Democrats face are real and numerous.

They knew they would face a tough 2022 immediately after 2020, when massive, unexpected GOP gains whittled the Democratic majority to just a handful of seats.

“House Republicans are in a great position to retake the majority,” said Rep. Tom Emmer, R-Minn., who chairs the National Republican Congressional Committee, “but we are taking nothing for granted.”

His rural district had been trending Republican for years. Kind won re-election last year by just about 10,000 votes.

What If The Republicans Win Everything Again

Total victory for the G.O.P. would mean Trump unleashed.

Opinion Columnist

The end of Robert Muellers investigation. The loss of health insurance for several million people. New laws that make it harder to vote. More tax cuts for the rich. More damage to the environment. A Republican Party molded even more in the image of President Trump.

These are among the plausible consequences if the Republicans sweep the midterm elections and keep control of both the House and Senate. And dont fool yourself. That outcome, although not the most likely one, remains possible. The last couple of weeks of polling have shown how it could happen.

Voters who lean Republican including whites across the South could set aside their disappointment with Trump and vote for Republican congressional candidates. Voters who lean left including Latinos and younger adults could turn out in low numbers, as they usually do in midterm elections. The Republicans continuing efforts to suppress turnout could also swing a few close elections.

No matter what, Democrats will probably win the popular vote in the House elections, for the first time since 2012. Trump, after all, remains unpopular. But the combination of gerrymandering and the concentration of Democratic voters in major cities means that a popular-vote win wont automatically translate into a House majority.

I Do Not Buy That A Social Media Ban Hurts Trumps 2024 Aspirations: Nate Silver

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sarah: Yeah, Democrats might not have their worst Senate map in 2022, but it will by no means be easy, and how they fare will have a lot to do with the national environment. And as we touched on earlier, Bidens overall approval rating will also make a big difference in Democrats midterm chances.

nrakich: Yeah, if the national environment is even a bit Republican-leaning, that could be enough to allow solid Republican recruits to flip even Nevada and New Hampshire. And then it wouldnt even matter if Democrats win Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

One thing is for sure, though whichever party wins the Senate will have only a narrow majority, so I think were stuck in this era of moderates like Sens. Joe Manchin and Lisa Murkowski controlling every bills fate for at least a while longer. 

sarah: Lets talk about big picture strategy, then, and where that leaves us moving forward. Its still early and far too easy to prescribe election narratives that arent grounded in anything, but one gambit the Republican Party seems to be making at this point is that attacking the Democratic Party for being too progressive or woke will help them win.

What do we make of that playbook headed into 2022? Likewise, as the party in charge, what are Democrats planning for?

With that being said, the GOPs strategies could still gin up turnout among its base, in particular, but its hard to separate that from general dissatisfaction with Biden.

The 2024 Presidential Election Will Be Close Even If Trump Is The Gop Nominee

One very important thing we should have all taken away from both the 2016 and 2020 presidential contests is that the two major parties are in virtual equipose . The ideological sorting-out of the two parties since the 1960s has in turn led to extreme partisan polarization, a decline in ticket-splitting and and in number of genuine swing voters. Among other things, this has led to an atmosphere where Republicans have paid little or no price for the extremism theyve disproportionately exhibited, or for the bad conduct of their leaders, most notably the 45th president.

Indeed, the polarized climate encourages outlandish and immoral base mobilization efforts of the sort Trump deployed so regularly. Some Republicans partisans shook their heads sadly and voted the straight GOP ticket anyway, And to the extent there were swing voters they tended strongly to believe that both parties were equally guilty of excessive partisanship, and/or that all politicians are worthless scum, so why not vote for the worthless scum under whom the economy hummed?

The bottom line is that anyone who assumes Republicans are in irreversible decline in presidential elections really hasnt been paying attention.

Republicans Set To Rebound Big In 2022 Midterms Unless

We are just 600 short days away from the 2022 midterm elections, which means it is the perfect time to handicap the Republicans chances to win back the House, Senate and prepare a serious challenge to President Biden

Patrick Joseph ToomeyBlack women look to build upon gains in coming electionsWatch live: GOP senators present new infrastructure proposalSasse rebuked by Nebraska Republican Party over impeachment vote already have Democrats scrambling to flip those seats in much easier electoral terrain.

As I noted in The Hill last month, Republicans are on the hook to defend 20 of their seats in 2022, while Team Blue has just 14 seats to hold, all in states won by Joe Biden in 2020. Since March is a perfect month for sports analogies, a good defense provides for a strong offense when the status quo is Democrats retaining control of the upper chamber. While there is clearly a power in incumbency, FiveThirtyEight suggests that senate vacancies are actually more of a mixed bag. In election cycles since 1974, the party with the most Senate retirements has actually gained seats just as often as it has lost them. For every year like 2008, when more Republicans than Democrats retired and Republicans lost seats accordingly, theres a year like 2012, when a whopping seven Democrats retired yet the party picked up two Senate seats.

How these various Rs play out in the next few months will determine if the Rs are successful in 2022.

Rising Violent Crime Is Likely To Present A Political Challenge For Democrats In 2022

But there are roadblocks to fully enacting Democrats’ agenda. Their thin majorities in both chambers of Congress mean nearly all Democrats have to get on board with every agenda item in order to push through major legislative priorities. And without adjusting or eliminating the legislative filibuster in the Senate, Democrats need 10 Republicans to join them for various legislation a near-impossible task.

Renewable Energy And Health Care Among The Sectors That Could Get Shakeup Due To Midterms

The 2022 midterm elections are already affecting Washington, and the results could shake up sectors such as renewable energy, health care and finance.

As Democrats in Washington work to deliver on infrastructure spending and other priorities, theyre trying to make progress in large part because of a key event thats still more than a year away.

That event is the midterm elections on Nov. 8, 2022, when Republicans will aim to take back control of the House and Senate and become a more powerful check on the priorities of President Joe Biden and his fellow Democrats.

What leaders are thinking about, particularly since we have unified party control, is that these midterm elections are inevitably a referendum on the governing party, said Sarah Binder, a senior fellow in governance studies at the Brookings Institution and a professor of political science at George Washington University in Washington, D.C.

In that sense, shrinking time coupled with What is it that Democrats want to run on? it adds pressure on Democrats to get their priorities through the door.

Time is growing short, Binder said, because party leaders often avoid making their members vote on tough issues in the same calendar year as an election, since that can hurt incumbents in tight races. Party leaders often think primarily about what they can get done in the first year of a Congress, as opposed to counting on the second year, she said.

Sectors that could win or lose

Year

Races worth watching

Can Democrats Avoid A Wipeout In 2022

Bidens plan: Go big or go home.

The good news for Democrats who watched Joe Biden unveil a historically ambitious agenda last night is that newly elected presidents have almost always passed some version of their core economic planparticularly when their party controls both congressional chambers, as Bidens does now.

The bad news: Voters have almost always punished the presidents party in the next midterm election anyway. The last two times Democrats had unified controlwith Bill Clinton in 199394 and Barack Obama in 200910they endured especially resounding repudiations in the midterms, which cost Clinton his majority in both chambers and Obama the loss of the House.

Theres a very different strategy this time, David Price, a Democratic representative from North Carolina and a former political scientist, told me. Theres an openness now to the sense that a bolder plan, ironically, might have greater appeal for independents and others we need to attract than trying to trim and split the difference with Republicans.

Read: The GOP cheat code to winning back the House

There is this recognition of this moment and how fleeting it is, and an evaluation that, absent the trifecta of control, it is very hard to move big policy, said a senior official at one of the partys leading outside advocacy groups, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal strategizing. So you have to take your shot. I think thats part of what undergirds Go big.

What If Republicans Win The Midterms

March 3, 2018

WASHINGTON A sizable portion of the American population has been convulsing with outrage at President Trump for more than a year. Millions of people who previously took only mild interest in politics have participated in protests, fumed as they stayed riveted to news out of Washington and filled social media accounts once devoted to family updates and funny videos with furious political commentary.

Yet public life on the whole has remained surprisingly calm. A significant factor in keeping the peace has surely been anticipatory catharsis: The widespread expectations of a big Democratic wave in the coming midterm elections are containing and channeling that indignation, helping to maintain order.

What will happen if no such wave materializes and that pressure-relief valve jams shut?

The country was already badly polarized before the plot twist of election night in 2016, of course, but since then liberals and much of what remains of Americas moderate center have been seething in a way that dwarfs the usual disgruntlement of whichever faction is out of power. While nobody can know for sure whether Mr. Trump would have lost but for Russias meddling, many of his critics clearly choose to believe he is in the White House because Vladimir Putin tricked the United States into making him its leader.

This November, if the wave turns out to be a mere trickle, we could see the accomplishment of that goal take hold.

Poll: Republicans Set To Win House Back In Massive Landslide

Republicans are set to win back the House in a historic landslide in 2022, according to a poll conducted by NBC News.

Based on all factors, youd have to consider Republicans the early favorites for the House majority in 2022, poll tracker David Wasserman NBC.

Democrats best hope is that Bidens approval rating stays above 50 percent and that Republicans have a tougher time turning out their voters without Trump on the ballot.

reports: The NBC report cites the all-too-predictable trend of the presidents party losing House seats in midterm elections, Democrats choosing not to run for reelection in some cases, and Republicans reaping the benefits of increased online donations, which are now on par with those of Democrats.

It is early, too early, to guarantee the Democrats loss of their slim 220-212 House majority. Voters wont hit the polls for almost 15 months, and things often have a way of changing on a dime in the world of politics. But the early signs certainly arent encouraging for the Democrats, especially as President Joe Bidens approval rating has taken a hit in recent weeks. American voters are being bombarded with images of a completely bungled withdrawal of Afghanistan and headlines about increased COVID hospitalizations and deaths. Inflation is also becoming a growing concern each month, contrary to the hopes of the Federal Reserve, and the crisis at the southern border shows no signs of abating.

Colwell: Republicans Are Likely To Win Control Of The House Next Year But

Three reasons why Republicans are very likely to take control of the House next year involve things over which Democrats have little or no control.

There is, however, one reason why Democrats might be able somehow to hang on to their slim majority. And they do have better prospects of at least holding on to the 50-50 Senate tie.

Reasons for Republicans winning control of the House:

FIRST: History is on their side. The party out of the White House almost always makes big gains in the first midterm election in a new presidency. In those midterm elections since the end of World War II, the average loss for the presidents party has been 29 seats. Democrats lost 63 seats in the 2010 midterm after election of President Barack Obama. Republicans lost 40 seats in the 2018 midterm after election of Donald Trump.

Because Democrats already lost seats in 2020, even as Joe Biden won the presidency, Republicans need only a net of five seats to win the majority. Democrats cant go back to 2020 to win more seats.

Factors in midterm losses for the presidents party include voters wanting a check on the president and disillusionment over any presidents inability to bring about everything voters hoped for.

SECOND: Redistricting after the census will result in many more safe Republican seats. Thats because Republicans control state legislatures in far more states than do Democrats. Both parties gerrymander. But it is the GOP controlling district drawing in many more states.

Site Map

Republicans In Decent Shape To Win House Majority In 2022

Washington Examiner

It is never preferable to be in the minority party in a legislative body. But as far as minorities go, House Republicans are in a pretty good spot.

Between the trend of midterm elections usually the party that is not in the White House, a closely divided House, and a party apparatus ready to continue their expectations-exceeding 2020 strategy while Democrats rework theirs, Republicans are on track to winning back the House in 2022.

“It has the makings of what could be a good year for the Republicans when it comes to the House,” said J. Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.

President Bidens approval rating is around 53%, and while he is not underwater, history indicates he would need to bump that rating up by at least 10 points in order to have a shot at gaining seats. Gallup analysis found that even presidents with approval ratings of 50% during the midterm elections averaged a loss of about 14 House seats from their own party.

That would be enough to bump Republicans back into the majority. Democrats have the slimmest House majority since 1930, currently 221 seats to 210 GOP seats .

Republicans in the 2020 cycle shattered the expectations of analysts who forecasted Democrats to gain House seats in 2020. Not a single Republican incumbent lost the election, and they picked off 13 incumbent Democrats.

But it is not all smooth sailing for Republicans.

Why We Arent Going To Panic

We should all have our eyes wide open as we inch closer to the 2022 Midterms, but by no means should we give up hope. There are plenty of reasons why we can win the midterms.

For starters, Democrats appear to be quite awake to how dangerous the Republican party has become in just the past few years. And since the Republicans dont appear to be any less radicalized with Trump out of the party, I dont think Democrats are going to go back to sleep.

At this point in the election cycle, we dont have a full picture of who is retiring from Congress or who the candidates will be for these seats. Getting great candidates for crucial, must-win seats can energize voters and donors.

Presidential approval seems to have an important effect on midterms and at this point, Bidens approval rating is 15 points higher than his disapproval. If he continues to do good things for Americans and keep his approval rating high, that will help the Democrats a lot.

So, lets approach this midterm as clearly as possible: Our democracy is still on the line, and as awful as the Republicans are, they are in striking position to win back some power in Congress. Each of us needs to do everything we can to ensure that does not happen. If you arent already, consider subscribing to Political Charge as Ill be delving into specific actions we can take every month!

If you want to win the midterms, please share this post with others who want to win, too!

Republicans Will Likely Take Control Of The Senate By 2024

The usual midterm House losses by the White House party dont always extend to the Senate because only a third of that chamber is up for election every two years and the landscape sometimes strongly favors the presidential party . But there a still generally an out-party wave that can matter, which is why Republicans may have a better than average chance of winning in at least some of the many battleground states that will hold Senate elections next year . If they win four of the six youll probably be looking at a Republican Senate.

But its the 2024 Senate landscape that looks really promising for the GOP. Democrats will be defending 23 seats and Republicans just 10. Three Democratic seats, and all the Republican seats, are in states Trump carried twice. Four other Democratic seats are in states Trump won once. It should be a banner year for Senate Republicans.

Balance Of Power: 2022 Senate Races

If Democrats want to win the again, they need to win the four competitive seats they currently hold Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire. That or augment any loss with a gain in any of their three competitive targets Pennsylvania, , or North Carolina.

This Senate preview still holds up, but the shorter version is Democrats are easily favored in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. They should also win New Hampshire if Chris Sununu doesnt run .

The thing is, theyre also favored to win in Pennsylvania, where they have a strong field of primary candidates and where Joe Biden won.

They have to be no worse than, and admittedly probably better than, a tossup in Wisconsin, where Republicans have candidate issues and Democrats have a strong likely nominee.

So even if New Hampshire goes Republican because of some local candidate factors, Democrats are in a good spot to win the Senate again.

That means if youre trying to make a bet, you can essentially box out two of four combinations where the GOP wins the Senate, and focus your attention on the two remaining options, if youre looking for the values.

The 1858 Midterm Election

November 2, 1858

There is always a lull after a tempest, and so the political world has subsided into an unwonted calm since the election, commented a reporter for The New York Times. The Republicans are naturally . . . exultant over their sweeping victories. Such a commentary might apply to any number of elections, but this reporter described the outcome of a particularly historic electionthe midterm election of 1858. The Republican success that year was especially remarkable because the Republican Party was only four years old.

Almost by spontaneous combustion, the Republican Party burst forth in 1854 in response to the controversial Kansas-Nebraska Act. For decades, Americas political battles had been fought between the Democrats and the Whigs. By the early 1850s, however, the issue of slavery had splintered the Whigs into warring factions and divided Democrats between north and south. When Democratic senator Stephen Douglas pushed his Kansas-Nebraska bill to passage, including its proposal to settle the issue of slavery by popular sovereignty, the uproar among northern abolitionists and anti-slavery activists was too fierce to be contained by the ailing Whig Party. As one person commented, The Whigs were simply not angry enough.

The Future Could Actually Be Bright For Republicans

Ed Kilgore

The most common political narrative outside MAGA-land is that the Republican Party is screwed, and richly deserves the ignominious future it faces.

Until recently the GOP was a reasonably normal and intermittently successful center-right political party, not wildly different from its counterparts in other countries with a two-party system, despite some racist and militarist habits that burst into view in times of stress. But then America elected a Black president, and Republicans went a little crazy, according to those outside their circles. First they abetted a destructively antediluvian Tea Party Movement and then lurched into the arms of an evil charlatan who somehow got elected president and spent four years trashing hallowed conservative principles and losing both Congress and the White House before his disgraceful and violence-inflected departure.

Worse yet, in the face of huge demographic challenges that beg for a new approach, the Republican Party has now lashed itself to a Trumpian mast going forward, following the most consistently unpopular president in American history in his bizarre crusade to deny he has ever lost anything. Meanwhile a shockingly united Democratic Party is whipping a few decades worth of liberal legislation through Congress as Republicans whine about cancel culture and try to sell the idea that Joe Biden is actually Che Guevara.