#kansas vs tcu basketball today

[sportsnewsblogging]

Kansas vs TCU

The Kansas vs TCU rivalry is one of the most intense and long-standing matchups in the Big 12 Conference. This rivalry is built on a foundation of competition and passion, with each game providing fans with exciting, high-stakes basketball. When it comes to the keyword “rivalry,” there is no doubt that the Kansas vs TCU matchup fits the bill. These two teams have a history of going head-to-head…

[sportsminorityreport]

Did the commissioner of the Pac-12 blow his chance to save his conference?

I was deeply disturbed by the news coming out of the West Coast news outlets.  

3 months ago, the plan for the PAC-12 was plainly apparent to everyone reading the news.   The Pac was going to hold off expansion and make a media deal trading off the media exposure of having all of their games on the cable networks, making the calculated decision to put some of their games on a niche/emerging platform, Amazon, and THEN to expand to 11 schools with San Diego State.

I said at the time that this was a MAJOR strategic mistake.  I advocated adding SDSU and trying to add Texas Tech, TCU, and Kansas (as the Big 12 Grant of Rights extension did not appear to have been completed).  The logic was that:

1) You add the 3rd and last FBS program in Southern California.

2) You add 3 schools in the central timezones.

3) You take over the Dallas Market from the Big 12.

4) You dramatically upgrade the Pac-12 in Basketball, the second revenue sport --- making it a relevant conference ---one worth watching --- for national basketball purists for the first time in almost a decade.

That would dramatically reduce the appeal of the Big 12 while forcing ESPN and Fox to take a much harder look at whether they could afford to be sealed out of the Western US and the #5 Dallas/Fort Worth media market.

With the Big Ten taking away most of the Northern Media markets from ESPN, the loss of the DFW market could have been the lynchpin to forcing ESPN and Fox to the negotiation table with the PAC.

But the Pac decided to negotiate with the assets they had on hand --- the 10 remaining PAC schools --- despite the fact that the PAC 12 with USC and UCLA had already  been pidgeonholed by the broadcast networks as strictly late night TV fare.

It seemed an odd move, but the media reports suggested the PAC commissioner had done his homework and the PAC schools might pull about $40 Million per school by going with Amazon. 

 As the PAC schools had been sold on projections of higher media payouts by their last commissioner, almost all PAC schools outspent the actual money that was coming over the length of the last TV deal, leaving their programs showing annual losses for several years.  It is VERY believable that the PAC schools were willing to write off some exposure to pull an extra $10 Million a year vs. what the Big 12 schools received.

In a few weeks, the negotiations would be done and the PAC would have again snubbed expansion.

Well...Here we are. 

 No TV deal.  

The talk now is that taking Amazon’s money might have the PAC schools getting paid LESS than the Big 12 schools.  

Now ASU fans are being polled and 72% are saying they should jump to the Big 12.  

And now the PAC is looking at SMU, a school with half the displayed fan base of TCU, as an expansion  partner for SDSU.

Let’s be clear, the PAC member school’s individual leadership may appear to be HORRIBLE at hiring commissioners, but they at least see things clearly when it comes to the PAC vs. the Big 12.  

The PAC is an association of research powerhouse universities, just ones presently quite mediocre at both revenue sports.  The Big 12 is about as far being a collection of research powerhouse Universities as you can get at the supposed power tier of the FBS ranks.  

If a PAC school joins the Big 12 they can forget about appearing to be power conference caliber.  

It is a fatal move.

Why do I say that?  Because realignment can be seen most clearly as power schools sucking up more and more TV money at the expense of their former peers.  Jumping to a less prestigious conference is conceding you are not a power conference peer --- that you don’t deserve to be there.

For Utah it would be the equivilent of rejoining the MWC.  For Arizona and Arizona State, it would be acknowledging the University of Houston as their academic peers, not Cal and Stanford.  For Colorado, it would be conceding a fall back into mediocracy as today’s Big 12 is academically a shadow of the one they left years ago.  (Unlike the Big 12, The PAC12-2 may no longer be a power conference - for now - but it still has the trappings of one.)

And for the west coast schools, it would mean becoming even more of a regional conference with horrid TV windows and crap dollars.  For Cal, Stanford, Washington, and Oregon, it would mean seeing conference attendance deadwood Washington State and Oregon State eating a bigger portion of the conference revenue and more --- having to add more than just SDSU.   It would likely mean having a 9 team conference with Fresno State and UNLV joining as more underperforming, low fan draw members.

This is nothing the PAC member schools want.  

Stanford, Oregon, and Washington want no part of UNLV or Fresno State.  Utah doesn’t want to slide back into little brother status under BYU in a MWC part II.  People in the know at ASU and UA know that they are Kansas State in the Big 12 conference at best.  Colorado’s leadership doesn’t want to be in a pop warner version of the old Big 12.

Again...the PAC is a collection of research powerhouses.  They are down today, but the worm could easily turn for them in the next media cycle if their gamble with Amazon works out.  The media money could be there in 5-6 years.  And if it is, no one in the PAC is taking a second look at the Big 12.

Their best chance is to stick together even if the media money is disappointing for another media cycle.  Hence the vote of confidence for the commissioner and the league itself.

Jumping to the Big 12 for a few million bucks a year over the next 5 years is a truly ridiculous premise, but the longer this goes on, the more polls you will see of PAC schools’ fans panicking and wanting to get out. Colorado and ASU fans are apparently now both on a different page than their school leadership.  That is 2 of the 4 inland schools.

And as a realignment follower for 30 years, I can assure you this house of cards will fall soon if the PAC commissioner cannot either close a deal for more than the Bug 12 payouts or come up with a new more viable plan.  There is only so much of this that can happen before powerful donors start panicking and drag their schools into the abyss.

So...what should the PAC do?  Offer slots immediately to TCU, Texas Tech, and Kansas. Same thing they should have done 3 months ago.  Same thing I told their office reps 3 months ago.

Now the fact that it appears the PAC is openly looking at SMU as a candidate and their commissioner has apparently been out visiting SMU strongly suggests that the Big 12 has now renewed it’s Grant of Rights.

(Now if it hasn’t and those schools have been sitting there available this whole time, your next step would/should probably be to fire your commissioner for a lack of due dilligence and just promote his number 2.  Forget about exhaustive searches – you suck at them.  Hire someone who is cheap to fire and move on.)

If the Big 12 has renewed it, you look at your next options --- which all “suck” --- and you chose the best options.... Not the closest ones.

What would those be?

Well I am going to assume that the one hard never is that Stanford and Cal would not concede to add BYU.   It is a shame because even though they deserve banishment from PAC consideration for the LDS getting involved in that California gay marriage vote years ago, BYU would move the needle.  And BYU would likely jump at the offer if they could figure out a way out of the Big 12 GOR.  But the GORs are daunting so lets assume all Big 12 schools are off the table.

I think the PAC should do a very un-PAC-like thing.  The PAC has always been firm on every member getting an equal share. 

I think they should pay their new members a “new member” sized share for the length of the media deal.  Pay new full members a half share --- whatever that is --- ($15M per season?) until the PAC gets through this trying contract.

1)  Add San Diego State now.  They are an annual bowl team and an annual NCAA tourney team in a region of California with about 24M people that the PAC otherwise doesn’t have a presence in.  They bring enough value to be a positive in negotiations.

2) Add Gonzaga as an Olympic only member for the next 5 years to make your conference relevant in basketball again.  The Pac has kicked the tires on Gonzaga for several year. They need to just do it.  If a full PAC share is $30M, give Gonzaga $10 M per year --- the full normal 1/3 an Olympic-only member gets in a power conference..

3) Add UC-Davis as an Olympic-only member for this media cycle, with little disguising they will probably allowed to make the jump in football in the next media cycle.  Why Davis?  Because they are in the Sacramento DMA --- a top 30 DMA with no football.  And they are academic and research bluebloods. Davis can use their PAC money to play their football a few years in the MWC or even CUSA.  Adding Davis as an Olympic member gives you an optimal media position in inland California and makes adding Fresno State unnecessary.

4) Add SMU.  SMU isn’t without value, it is just CURRENTLY a far, far, far inferior move to adding TCU or Texas Tech.  SMU’s biggest problem is that they draw very few fans for football and that isn’t likely to change.  Now on the positive side they are in the DFW metroplex even if they are an after thought to the media. What is a positive is that SMU practically invented paying players.  Now that paying players is the rule of the land, SMU is likely to do a LOT better on the field. Keep in mind the metroplex is the state’s premiere talent hotbed in football and basketball. If SMU becomes a consistent top 25 team, I have to think they might pull maybe 28K a game…?  That still sucks and isn’t anywhere close to the 46K TCU pulls, but maybe that would be enough to make SMU truly media relevant in Dallas where I live. SMU is the best academic university based on academic ranking in the metroplex.

5) Add Rice.  Now I am sure many heads exploded with this one, but stay with me here. Rice is the best academic school in Texas and Houston is the second best recruiting market in Texas.  Houston is also a city with 3 FBS teams and the #10 DMA in the country.  Adding Rice technically raises Rice to a peer status with Houston again.  Now I think Rice should be STRONGLY encouraged to focus on basketball due to their tiny enrollment and become the Duke of this new PAC, but there are other options they could take. Mensa member and former UT and UH head coach Tom Herman would make a LOT of sense at Rice if they lose patience with coach Mike Bloomgren (who does seem to be making consistent incremental progress).   

6) Tulane. I know this makes a lot of people groan, but you aren’t looking at the big picture.  The Pac has died on the vine because college football has become a game of recruiting.  Adding Tulane gives the PAC access to arguably the best SEC recruiting ground. Tulane is additionally a very, VERY good AAU school. It is the best academic school in Lousiana.  Elevating Tulane is like the Rice move on steriods. Suddenly Tulane jumps way ahead of all of their competitors to a slot right behind LSU. They hurdle ULL, ULM, La Tech, Southern Miss…Tulane could actually be really good. And even if they aren’t, you have just opened Dallas, Houston, and the New Orleans/Jackson corridor --- Probably three of the best recruiting grounds in the county to Washington, Oregon, Colorado (cough - Deion Sanders - cough), Utah, and the Arizona schools.  And you have maintained your academic standards.

It will look ugly. 

The last three schools are likely to draw less than 30K a game. It will look like the disastrous “super WAC“ for a bit, but it is a solid long term move that will look a lot stronger when this media cycle is complete and the new schools have grown into solid PAC members.  And it has the chance to turn playoff bridesmaid schools Oregon, Washington, and Utah into legit playoff contenders.  That would be worth the price of admission.

[junker-town]

Bracketology 2019: Duke returns to the top line following Friday’s win over UNC

The Blue Devils and Tar Heels swap places, but the door isn’t yet closed for Roy Williams’ club. Meanwhile, Virginia remains No. 1 overall despite falling to Florida State in the ACC Tournament’s first, less anticipated, semifinal.

In Friday night’s second ACC Tournament semifinal, the Duke Blue Devils finally got to take on the North Carolina Tar Heels, with the NBA Draft’s likely top pick, Zion Williamson, in the lineup. For the basketball-loving public, it was worth the wait, as the Tobacco Road archrivals put on a show, with the Blue Devils edging the Tar Heels by the minimum margin, 74-73.

That narrow win lifted 28-5 Duke above 27-6 North Carolina on the seed list, despite the Tar Heels’ two easy wins over the Blue Devils sans Williamson. So Mike Krzyzewski’s squad now finds itself back on the top seed line, alongside the Virginia Cavaliers, who remain the overall No. 1 overall despite Friday night’s loss to the Florida State Seminoles in the first ACC semifinal, the Gonzaga Bulldogs and Kentucky Wildcats.

There’s still a chance for three ACC No. 1 seeds, however, as North Carolina could slide past Kentucky if the Wildcats lose to the Tennessee Volunteers in this afternoon’s second SEC Tournament semifinal. As for the Volunteers, they would likely need to win the league’s automatic bid to earn top seed consideration. A pair of Big Ten teams, the Michigan State Spartans and Michigan Wolverines, follow North Carolina and Tennessee on seed line No. 2, and neither can be eliminated from the race for a No. 1 yet.

The LSU Tigers, who fell to the Florida Gators in the SEC quarterfinals on Friday afternoon, dropped to seed line No. 3, where they’re joined by the Houston Cougars and a pair of teams who solidified their spots by winning conference semifinals on Friday night, the Kansas Jayhawks and aforementioned Florida State Seminoles. On the other hand, the Texas Tech Red Raiders and Purdue Boilermakers seem consigned to the four line following quarterfinal losses, while the two remaining protected seeds, the Virginia Tech Hokies and Kansas State Wildcats could yet be passed by the top No. 5 seed, the Wisconsin Badgers, who happen to play Michigan State in today’s first Big Ten Tournament semifinal.

After today’s full bracket, I’ll quickly rundown what’s at stake in today’s conference tournament action.

Note: Auto bid holders in this section are noted by the conference names in parentheses. Arrows indicate movement up or down seed lines relative to Friday’s projection. New entrants are marked with an asterisk. Teams that have clinched bids are in all caps.

1. East (Washington, D.C.)

Columbia, South Carolina (Fri./Sun.)

1. Virginia vs. 16. NORTH DAKOTA STATE (Summit)/FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON (NEC) 8. Seton Hall vs. ↓9. VCU

San José, California (Fri./Sun.)

5. Wisconsin vs. 12. New Mexico State (WAC) 4. Kansas State vs. 13. Old Dominion (C-USA)

Tulsa, Oklahoma (Fri./Sun.)

6. Maryland vs. ↓11. St. John’s/Arizona State 3. Houston (American) vs. 14. Georgia State (Sun Belt)

Jacksonville, Florida (Thu./Sat.)

7. WOFFORD (SoCon) vs. 10. Syracuse 2. Tennessee vs. 15. COLGATE (Patriot)

4. Midwest (Kansas City, Missouri)

Columbia (Fri./Sun.)

↑1. Duke (ACC) vs. *16. Abilene Christian (Southland) ↑8. Minnesota vs. 9. Oklahoma

San José (Fri./Sun.)

↑5. Iowa State vs. *12. Davidson (A 10) 4. Virginia Tech vs. 13. UC Irvine (Big West)

Tulsa (Fri./Sun.)

↓6. Marquette vs. 11. TCU ↓3. LSU vs. 14. Montana (Big Sky)

Columbus, Ohio (Fri./Sun.)

7. Buffalo (MAC) vs. ↑10. SAINT MARY’S (WCC) 2. Michigan State (Big Ten) vs. BRADLEY (MVC)

2. West (Anaheim, California)

Salt Lake City, Utah (Thu./Sat.)

1. Gonzaga vs. 16. Prairie View (SWAC)/Norfolk State (MEAC) ↑8. Utah State (MW) vs. 9. Washington (Pac-12)

Salt Lake City (Thu./Sat.)

5. Mississippi State vs. 12. MURRAY STATE (OVC) 4. Texas Tech vs. 13. Vermont (Am. East)

Hartford, Connecticut (Thu./Sat.)

6. Cincinnati vs. 11. Florida ↑3. Florida State vs. 14. NORTHEASTERN (CAA)

Des Moines, Iowa (Thu./Sat.)

↑7. Louisville vs. 10. Ole Miss ↑2. Michigan vs. 15. NORTHERN KENTUCKY (Horizon)

3. South (Louisville, Kentucky)

Columbus (Fri./Sun.)

1. Kentucky (SEC) vs. 16. IONA (MAAC) 8. Iowa vs. 9. Baylor

Hartford (Thu./Sat.)

↑5. Villanova (Big East) vs. 12. Temple/Belmont ↓4. Purdue vs. 13. LIBERTY (ASUN)

Des Moines (Thu./Sat.)

6. Auburn vs. 11. Ohio State 3. Kansas (Big 12) vs. 14. Harvard (Ivy)

Jacksonville (Thu./Sat.)

↓7. Nevada vs. ↓10. UCF ↓2. North Carolina vs. 15. GARDNER-WEBB (Big South)

Last Four Byes: Ole Miss, TCU, Florida, Ohio State Last Four IN: St. John’s, Arizona State, Temple, Belmont First Four OUT: NC State, Alabama, Indiana, Texas, Next Four OUT: Oregon, Lipscomb, UNC Greensboro, Clemson

Bids by Conference: 8 Big Ten, 7 ACC, 7 Big 12, 7 SEC, 4 American, 4 Big East, 2 Atlantic 10, 2 Mountain West, 2 Ohio Valley, 2 Pac-12, 2 West Coast, 21 one-bid conferences

Saturday preview

Note: All times are Eastern.

For starters, a whopping 14 automatic bids are at stake throughout the day and night. Bubble fans will want to pay particularly close attention to the Mountain West (6 p.m., CBS) and MAC (7:30 p.m., ESPN2) championship games, as both feature potential surprise auto bid winners. I have more details on those games in today’s bubble update.

Big Ten Semifinals (1 p.m. and 3:30 p.m., CBS)

Both Michigan State and Michigan need to advance to tomorrow afternoon’s final to stay in the hunt for one of the four No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament bracket. Wisconsin, meanwhile, is a contender for a spot on the four line, while Minnesota will look to continue to improve their seeding after picking up a pair of wins that lifted them off the bubble.

SEC Semifinals (1 p.m. and 3:30 p.m., ESPN)

Florida has to be relatively happy to play a quality Auburn squad in this afternoon’s first semifinal as a loss to potential opponent South Carolina could have damaged the Gators’ at-large hopes even after Friday’s big win over LSU. Game one’s winner will earn a surprise berth in Sunday’s final alongside either Kentucky or Tennessee, who are playing a top-seed elimination game in the second game of the day in Nashville.

American Athletic Semifinals (3 p.m. and 5:30 p.m., ESPN2)

Bubble teams will want the top two seeds, Houston and Cincinnati, to eliminate their respective semifinal opponents, host Memphis and surprising Wichita State. If they don’t, the American will have a surprise auto bid winner and perhaps five entrants in the field, if the Selection Committee takes Temple after the Owls’ Friday loss to the Shockers.

Big 12 Championship (6 p.m., ESPN)

The first game of ESPN’s Saturday night championship triple-header features a Kansas squad hoping to stay on seed line No. 3 (a two seed is unlikely given the teams ahead of the Jayhawks) and an Iowa State squad hoping to somehow crack the four line.

Big East Championship (6:30 p.m., Fox)

While Seton Hall has stormed its way into the field with four straight wins, the Pirates might find it difficult to extend that run to five games. That’s because Villanova is going for its third straight Big East Tournament title and a spot on seed line No. 5 at a minimum.

ACC Championship (8:30 p.m., ESPN)

A win for Duke over Florida State would cement their place on the top seed line and might open up some debate as to whether the Blue Devils or Virginia should be No. 1 overall. As for the Seminoles, they’re aiming to jump up to an unlikely two seed.

Pac-12 Championship (10:30 p.m., ESPN)

This is not only your final chance to listen to Dave Pasch and Bill Walton working together this season, but it’s an opportunity for the Pac-12 to potentially earn a surprising third bid. Thanks to an overtime win over Arizona State, Oregon will take on Washington for the second Saturday night in a row. And if the Ducks dominate the Huskies like they did in Seattle one week ago, they’ll be in the field.

In short, there’s still much to play for with fewer than 36 hours remaining until the Selection Show.

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[yeskraim]

College basketball’s biggest winners and losers: Baylor suffers setback, Dayton unbeatable

Scott Gleeson, USA TODAY Published 6:46 p.m. ET Feb. 22, 2020 | Updated 12:16 a.m. ET Feb. 23, 2020

CLOSE

What teams are rising and falling as March madness is quickly approaching.

USA TODAY

With the calendar nearing March, the college basketball season is starting to heat up with just two weeks left in the regular season before major conference tournaments begin.

While teams that are securely in the field don’t have much to worry about as far as playing in the NCAA tournament, it’s make-or-break time for their seeding line. The difference between a No. 4 or No. 5 seed could be the difference in suffering a first-round bracket-buster. And even the difference between No. 1 seeds matters for earning the best pathway to the Final Four.

Baylor entered Saturday as the projected top overall No. 1 seed, and will close the day as the second No. 1 seed as Kansas vaulted ahead thanks to a thrilling 64-61 win in a battle between two national title contenders. And San Diego State entered the day as a projected No. 1 seed but could potentially fall to the No. 2 line after losing its first game of the season to .500 team UNLV. 

Here’s a look at the biggest winners and losers among NCAA tournament-secure teams in Saturday’s action: 

WINNERS

Dayton: After tailing 38-36 at the half to Duquesne, the Flyers (25-2) turned it up a notch in the second half to pull away for an 80-70 home win. National player of the year candidate Obi Toppin finished with 28 points and Dayton’s depth continues to be a major strength. Dayton hasn’t lost since December and currently holds a No. 2 seed in USA TODAY Sports’ latest bracketology. It could be tough for coach Anthony Grant’s team to vault to the No. 1 line, but if other teams falter it’s certainly a possibility. 

BUBBLE WATCH: Which teams damaged tournament hopes, bolstered credentials?

MORE: College basketball scoreboard

Louisville: The Cardinals (23-5) took care of business in dispatching a reeling North Carolina team in dominant form, and it’s a good thing because teams like UNC (ones that underachieved and are win-hungry) can be the most dangerous because of their ability to stain profiles. Louisville cruised and remains out front in the ACC standings. This outcome also means coach Chris Mack’s team is one step closer to bumping up from the No. 4 seed line to No. 3 in the projected bracket. 

Duke: After suffering a blowout to North Carolina State earlier this week, the Blue Devils (23-4) needed to rebound. They did that in convincing fashion with an 88-64 beatdown of Virginia Tech at home behind freshman Cassius Stanley’s 21 points. A projected No. 2 seed, Duke only has one more chance of acquiring a Quadrant 1 victory (on the road Feb. 29 vs. Virginia) so rekindling a winning momentum was a must. 

Virginia: The Cavaliers aren’t completely safe yet from the NCAA tournament bubble, but they’ve drifted pretty far away from it in February thanks to winning seven of their last eight. Saturday’s 59-56 win over Pittsburgh on the road was UVA’s fourth win in a row and a sign that the reigning national champs are starting to hit their stride as March rolls around. Remember, there are still carry-overs from last year’s title team in Mamadi Diakite and Kihei Clark. Tony Bennett’s team, always a lockdown defensive unit, could be dangerous in March. 

Texas Tech: The Red Raiders (18-9) hammered Iowa State 87-57 to continue its late-season push up the projected bracket. Once a bubble team, Texas Tech has climbed to a No. 8 seed and is positioned to vault to the No. 7 seed line if it keeps winning. TTU has won five of six and has dates with projected No. 1 seeds and Big 12 kingpins Baylor (March 2) and Kansas (March 7) to close out the regular season. 

Auburn: The Tigers (23-4) are currently holding a No. 4 seed and could’ve slipped to the No. 5 seed line had it lost to Tennessee. But after trailing for portions of the game, Bruce Pearl’s group took care of business to pull out a 73-66 victory on its home floor.  

LOSERS

San Diego State: There had been only 19 teams to ever enter the NCAA tournament undefeated in college basketball history. The Aztecs appeared to be poised to join that club until Saturday’s colossal 66-63 upset to UNLV. SDSU stormed back after tailing by double-digits with four minutes left, but ultimately the hole was too big. While it is only one loss, San Diego State could still be in jeopardy of losing out on an NCAA tournament No. 1 seed now since the setback qualified as a Quadrant 3 (home games against opponents ranked 76-160 in NCAA’s NET rating) loss to go on the tourney profile. 

Gonzaga: Unlike San Diego State’s loss to UNLV — a Quadrant 3 home loss — Gonzaga fell to a top-30 opponent on the road, so this outcome won’t stain the resume much at all. It does, however, pave room for projected No. 2 seeds Maryland, Duke, Dayton and Florida State to make a late push to vault ahead of both SDSU and Gonzaga for the remaining No. 1 seeds that both Kansas and Baylor should inevitably secure come Selection Sunday.

West Virginia: The Mountaineers (19-8) suffered a setback on the road, losing to TCU 67-60 in overtime, and while they’ll still likely hold a No. 4 seed on the projected bracket, Saturday’s outcome pushed them further away from the No. 3 line. WVU has now lost four of their last five, and granted two of those losses came against Baylor and Kansas, but the Big 12 slate isn’t getting any easier — with two of the last four on the road and a home clash with Baylor on March 7. 

Baylor: The Bears are still a national title favorite after Saturday’s 64-61 home loss to Kansas. But the setback, which snapped a 23-game winning streak, means the Bears lost their grip on the Big 12 standings (KU is now tied) and also their grip on the top overall NCAA tournament seed. Baylor might need to face the Jayhawks again and defeat them to prove to the committee it’s the top team on the bracket. 

MORE: Kansas makes its case as tournament’s top seed with road win over Baylor

Arizona: After losing in overtime to Oregon on a last-second jumper earlier in the season, it was a dose of deja vu for the Wildcats on Saturday, as they lost 73-72 on another last-second bucket in overtime. The Ducks’ Payton Pritchard had 38 points and this outcome likely pushes Arizona from a projected tourney No. 6 seed to a No. 7. It also removed the Wildcats from first place contention in the crowded Pac-12. 

Xavier: The Musketeers (17-10) had won four of five to improve to the No. 9 seed line in recent weeks, so Saturday’s 64-55 home loss to Villanova won’t hurt the team’s profile much. But it was a missed opportunity to add a Quadrant 1 victory to the résumé with only three signature wins. Still, Xavier is in good shape being far enough away from the bubble with a top-40 NET score, top-10 strength of schedule and no bad losses. 

Colorado: The Buffaloes (21-7) currently hold a No. 5 seed in the latest bracket projection, but might dip closer to the No. 6 line after a 70-63 home loss to non-tourney team UCLA. The loss also pushes Colorado out of first place in the crowded Pac-12 standings. Still, the Buffs have six Quad 1 wins and no bad losses, so they’re well positioned to notch a solid seed in the NCAAs. 

***

Follow college basketball reporter Scott Gleeson on Twitter @ScottMGleeson.

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[auburnfamilynews]

We’ve got a pretty good idea of the Top 3 in the SEC, after that, it’s a complete tossup.

We’ve made it through another week in SEC hoops! The league did pretty well in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge winning 4 of 10 games despite having 3 of the 4 teams not participating ranked and the fact they were favored in 2 of those games (won by Tennessee and Kentucky). Auburn will return to the SEC/Big 12 Challenge next year and I can’t to see who Auburn will draw next season (Texas Tech owes us a home game). That aside, it’s time to rank the teams once again and feel free to share your thoughts below!

#1 Tennessee: 18-1 (6-0) - Last Week’s Ranking: 1

Last Week: Beat Vanderbilt 88-83 (OT), Beat West Virginia 83-66

This Week: Tonight at South Carolina, Saturday at Texas A&M

The Vols got 43 from Grant Williams and needed every point as they survived Memorial Gymnasium on Wednesday. Then started slow against the Mountaineers before getting back to playing Tennessee Basketball over the last 25 minutes of that game. Vols hit the road for a pair of games this week.

#2 Kentucky: 15-3 (5-1) - Last Week’s Ranking: 2

Last Week: Beat #22 Mississippi State 71-55, Beat #9 Kansas 71-63

This Week: Tonight at Vanderbilt, Saturday at Florida

Kentucky has knocked off 3 consecutive Top 25 teams in a week’s time. That’s extremely impressive. Reid Travis is playing the way people expected him to and that adds another dimension to this Cats team that’s on a roll right now. They play in a building that’s given them some trouble over the years tonight before renewing their rivalry with the Gators on Saturday.

#3 LSU: 16-3 (6-0) - Last Week’s Ranking: 3

Last Week: Beat Georgia 92-82, Beat Missouri 86-80 (OT)

This Week: Wednesday at Texas A&M, Saturday vs. Arkansas

Speaking of extremely impressive, LSU was down 14 at Missouri with 2 minutes left. The Bayou Bengals battled back, forced overtime and won it on the road at Missouri. These Tigers have established themselves along with Tennessee and Kentucky as the best 3 teams the SEC has to offer in the moment and should be able to take care of business this week.

#4 Mississippi State: 15-4 (3-3) - Last Week’s Ranking: 6

Last Week: Lost to #8 Kentucky 76-55, Beat #16 Auburn 92-84

This Week: Tonight at Alabama, Saturday at Ole Miss

It’s hard for me to move a team up 2 spots despite losing by 21 points during the week. But after Ole Miss and Auburn both lost twice in the past this week, the Bulldogs picked up their best win of the season so far against Auburn on Saturday. Mississippi State went 13-30 from 3-point range Saturday after going 3-20 against Kentucky. The win over Auburn is the Bulldogs 4th Top 50 win this season.

#5 Ole Miss: 14-5 (4-2) - Last Week’s Ranking: 5

Last Week: Lost to Alabama 74-53, Lost to #24 Iowa State 87-73

This Week: Wednesday at Florida, Saturday vs. #22 Mississippi State

Like Auburn, the Rebels fell in both contests last week resulting in them falling out of the Top 25. Ole Miss looks to be coming back to earth after a hot start, losers of 3 of their last 4 games. It doesn’t get any easier this week with a tricky trip to Gainesville before Mississippi State looks for revenge after the Rebels took the season’s first game in Starkville.

#6 South Carolina - 10-9 (5-1) - Last Week’s Ranking: 8

Last Week: Beat #16 Auburn 80-77, Lost to Oklahoma State 74-70

This Week: Tonight vs. #1 Tennessee, Saturday at Georgia

Based on South Carolina’s win Tuesday over Auburn and the fact that the Gamecocks are playing better than Auburn right now, I’m giving the Roosters the nod over Auburn this week. South Carolina seems to have Auburn’s number in Columbia. A narrow 4-point loss against Oklahoma State isn’t the best result but considering where this team was 4 weeks ago, they’ve made quite the progress.

#7 Auburn: 13-6 (2-4) - Last Week’s Ranking: 4

Last Week: Lost to South Carolina 80-77, Lost to #22 Mississippi State 92-84

This Week: Wednesday vs. Missouri, Saturday vs. Alabama

Contrary to popular belief, the sky isn’t falling for the Tigers. Yes, we’ve lost 3 games in a row and all 3 have been frustrating in their own way. South Carolina took advantage of Auburn’s frontcourt and Chris Silva had a monster night. And yet, Auburn had a chance to win that game at the end. Saturday night was also a winnable game, especially when Auburn took a 7 point lead in the second half. But turnovers really did Auburn in Saturday including an uncharacteristic 6 turnovers from Jared Harper. The 3-point defense wasn’t good in the first half and then the Bulldogs took over in the paint in the second half. The defense has to get better going forward, especially from 3-point range. They also have to do a better job of not digging themselves into a hole (double-digit deficits). We saw Chuma Okeke show flashes of his potential this week scoring 13 and 16 points respectively and he has to become assertive on the offensive end for Auburn to progress as the season moves along.

Looking ahead, Auburn has 3 straight home games and 5 of their next 7 games are at Auburn Arena. Yes, the dream of repeating in the SEC is for all intents and purposes gone but this team needs to playing their best ball in March. It’s January 29th so there’s definitely time to right this ship. And if you’re worried about potential seeding in the NCAA Tournament for Auburn: I present this nugget to you.

Regarding Auburn's potential seed in the NCAA Tournament here's something to consider: Auburn has made 4 Sweet 16s all-time. Other than 98-99 when Auburn was a 1 seed, the seeds Auburn were the other 3 times: 11, 8 and 10. Lot of basketball left to be played. War Eagle!

— Will McLaughlin (@ShootyHoopsWill) January 27, 2019

There’s a lot of basketball to be played still and I think Auburn has a run in them as we get towards the end of the season.

#8 Alabama: 12-7 (3-3) - Last Week’s Ranking: 7

Last Week: Beat #20 Ole Miss 74-53, Lost to Baylor 73-68

This Week: Tonight vs. #22 Mississippi State, Saturday at Auburn

Alabama played one of their better games of the year on Tuesday night against Ole Miss, holding the Rebels to just 53 points. But they couldn’t close the deal in Waco and have another big home game against a team from Mississippi tonight before coming here this weekend.

#9 Florida: 11-8 (3-3) - Last Week’s Ranking: 9

Last Week: Beat Texas A&M 81-72, Lost to TCU 55-50

This Week: Wednesday vs. Ole Miss, Saturday vs. #7 Kentucky

I still can’t figure this Gators team out. They continue to play solid defense but for the life of them, they simply can’t score. The Gators need a signature win and their best chance for one comes Saturday at home against Kentucky.

#10 Georgia: 10-9 (1-5) - Last Week’s Ranking: 11

Last Week: Lost to #25 LSU 92-82, Beat Texas 98-88

This Week: Tonight at Arkansas, Saturday vs. South Carolina

Georgia came into Saturday’s game averaging 74 points a game this year. Texas came in giving up about 64 points a game this year. So naturally, Georgia scored 98 on Saturday while Tom Crean wore a track suit on the sidelines for reasons unknown..

#11 Arkansas: 11-8 (2-4) - Last Week’s Ranking: 12

Last Week: Beat Missouri 72-60, Lost to #14 Texas Tech 67-64

This Week: Tonight vs. Georgia, Saturday at #19 LSU

The Hogs were another team that surprised in non-conference play that have come back to earth in league play. However, this past week, they knocked off Mizzou before a valiant effort at Texas Tech over the weekend. Tonight’s a winnable game before a tough task in Baton Rouge this weekend.

#12 Missouri: 10-8 (1-5) - Last Week’s Ranking: 10

Last Week: Lost to Arkansas 72-60, Lost to LSU 86-80 (OT)

This Week: Wednesday at Auburn, Saturday vs. Vanderbilt

Missouri had a golden opportunity to pick up a signature win on Saturday and couldn’t hold a 14 point lead against LSU. Now they come here tomorrow to play an Auburn team desperate for a win. We’ll have more on Mizzou later today and tomorrow.

#13 Texas A&M: 8-10 (1-5) - Last Week’s Ranking: 14

Last Week: Lost to Florida 81-72, Beat Kansas State 65-53

This Week: Wednesday vs. #19 LSU, Saturday vs. #1 Tennessee

Last week, I challenged Texas A&M on here and they played like a completely different team this week. They had a 13 point lead at half in Gainesville before letting the second half get away from them. Then they pulled the biggest surprise of the SEC/Big 12 Challenge upsetting a hot Kansas State team. Life doesn’t get easier for the Aggies as they host 2 of the best 3 teams in the league this week.

#14 Vanderbilt: 9-10 (0-6) - Last Week’s Ranking: 13

Last Week: Lost to #1 Tennessee 88-83 (OT), Lost to Oklahoma 86-55

This Week: Tonight vs. #7 Kentucky, Saturday at Missouri

Oh Vandy.... they had Tennessee beat before a flagrant foul changed the complexion of the contest late and ultimately, the Vols have Grant Williams and Vandy doesn’t. But following that up losing by 31 at Oklahoma isn’t a great look. Still, despite their record, this is a team to not take lightly.

That’s all this week. Once again, let me know your thoughts below!

from College and Magnolia - All Posts https://www.collegeandmagnolia.com/2019/1/29/18200573/volume-vi-sec-power-rankings-and-open-discussion

[tylerarltunl]

Tyler’s Takes 2.0

March 11, 2018

College Basketball Exclusive

Welcome back to Tyler's Takes! This week I will be focusing only on college basketball as the field of 68 was set of the NCAA tournament and sadly I have to mention the NIT since that is where one of my teams and my alma-mater ended up. So let's get it to it!

College Basketball

Duke Blue Devils

Duke only has themselves to blame for the region of death. Two losses to North Carolina sealed their fate as a two seed. Out of all the 1 seeds I wanted to avoid Villanova. Xavier and Kansas are quality teams but I think Duke matches up well with either of them and Duke ended up getting the two seed in the Midwest region. Duke vs. Michigan State would be an excellent game but as a fan I would prefer blow outs and an easier match up. Kansas has a really easy path to the Elite 8. They should be there... now Duke's half of the bracket is tricky. Michigan State should breeze into the Sweet 16 without breaking a sweat. Iona the 15 seed plays a hectic and crazy pace. Duke will have to play their game and be focused. This Duke team has shown the ability to loose to inferior teams this season and that is concerning because Iona is not a pushover by any means. I see Duke vs. Iona as a first half battle that balloons to a 15+ point victory for Duke. Now to the second round. I would prefer if Duke played OU. Rhode Island has been ranked in the top 25 consistently all year. With either OU or Rhode Island Duke's bigs (Wendell Carter and Marvin the Third) should dominate. Rhode Island is the better team but the Trey Young factor against Duke's zone defense is a wee bit scary as well. If he goes off Duke could be looking at another early exit. I don't think it happens. OU plays with a fire and beats Rhode Island but Duke is too much for OU at every position. Trey Young keeps it interesting for the first 10-12 minutes but Duke sets the tone after that. This Duke team has the most talent in the country. If they play their A+ game I don't think they can be beat. The problem is I haven't seen the A+ game since Duke beat Louisville in Cameron Indoor.

PREDCITON- Duke goes 2-0.

Nebraska Cornhuskers

WOW. I thought this team deserved to be in the NCAA Tournament. Little did I know they were barely invited to the NIT Tournament. All bubble teams have flaws and Nebraska's flaw happened to be what the committee chose to care about most this year with the quadrant system as a guide. "Quality" wins were talked about at length and Nebraska just did not have enough of those. I feel for this team because they are talented enough to play in a Sweet 16 this year but will not get the chance. I think it is a good learning moment for their young talent. If you roll the ball on the court I think Nebraska today would beat Syracuse, Arizona State, UCLA, Oklahoma, St. Bons, and TCU. Sadly that is not how the NCAA Tournament is chosen. Now to the slap in the face and maybe the chip on the shoulder that ignites this team to run to Madison Square Garden and cut down the nets.... A 5 seed in the NIT is ridiculous and laughable. LSU is a three seed at 17-14 in a bad SEC. Utah a 2 seed at 19-11 in an awful PAC-12. Nebraska should be playing a game or two in Pinnacle Bank Arena but they aren't and will have to get over it. I think they use this as motivation and beat Mississippi State by 12+ in Starksville. Now can James Palmer Jr please come back for a run at the tournament next year? I sure hope so because Isaiah Roby is going to blossom in to a star.

Prediction- Nebraska wins by 12+ on Wednesday

Everything Else

Oklahoma State was the team got screwed the most by the committee. If they put OU in they had to put the Pokes in by my standards. They went 2-1 against OU and swept Kansas in the regular season.. OU gets way to much credit for wins in November and December when teams did not know who the heck Trey Young was. Oklahoma State's non-conference was not as impressive as OU's BUT that is not the same OU team I have seen for the last month and a half. I was fine with both being left out or if one team made it out of the two it should have been Oklahoma State. I hope to the good man upstairs the committee didn't factor in Trey Young because that is not what the NCAA Tournament should be about.

PREDITICON- OU plays their best game in a month and a half against Rhode Island since they are tired of hearing they don't belong and win, Then return to form and lose to Duke, Oklahoma State shows the committee why they should be in the field of 68 and win by 20+.

What a match up of Creighton and Kansas State. Marcus Foster against his old team and his old coach. Creighton and Kansas State are the same team with different styles. Creighton is going to shoot 3s and get good looks while Kansas State is going to muck it up and play really good defense. They are the same team because neither team has a bad loss. Creighton has shown the ability to beat the best of the best with a home win against Villanova and Kansas State just didn't lose a horrendous game all year. Both are just solid in what they do and how they play. To be honest both stand a change against Virginia in the next round. If Kansas State advances and plays Virginia that will be a game that might put you to sleep. The first team to 45 could win that game. Creighton has a better chance to beat Virginia with their ability to shoot the 3 ball but I think Kansas State matches up really well with Creighton and Marcus Foster tries to do to much against his former team.

PREDICITON- Kansas State beats Creighton, Marcus Foster costs Creighton late with some selfish basketball, Kansas State losses a brutal game to watch against Virginia but covers the spread.

I might be called a hater for this but man this Wichita State team scares me and in a bad way for their fans. Shaq Morris is a beast and doesn't get enough praise nationally but Wichita State has played suspect defense at best all season. I know very little about Marshall (the team they play in the first round) but I would not be shocked to see the Shockers in a final possession game. I don't know who I am picking in this matchup but I am confident in the fact that the Shockers will struggle and lose to West Virginia in the second round. McDuffy just hasn't been the same and Landry Shamet can't do it all against a press that will drive him crazy.

PREDICTION- The Shockers escape Marshall but run into a team they don't match up well against in West Virginia.

I will wrap up with Kansas. This Kansas team is good. It is not the best Kansas team in recent memory though. They have been better than the sum of their parts all year and if they can keep it up they will cruise to an Elite 8. If Malik Newman and Desosa keep playing they way they did in the Big 12 Tournament this KU team could make it all they way to the Final Four. I say that on one hand but my other hand comes back and slaps sense into me with this.. KU won 11 games by single digits this season. They have lost to mediocre teams this season as well. That makes me think this could be an early exit year for Kansas because NC State has proven it can beat the top teams in the field. Kansas is very interesting because by the numbers they should walk to the Elite 8 but something is telling me this could be a one weekend team.

PREDICTION- Kansas doesn't stub its toe and makes the Sweet 16 but NC State or Seaton Hall give them a scare.

Final Thoughts

March Madness is finally here. This is the best tournament in sports. I feel like the past few years upsets just haven't been there. That is what makes March so special. I think there are some good teams that can pull a few upsets. If you are filling out a bracket consider Loyola Chicago, Wright State, and San Diego State on Thursday as possible upsets and on Friday look for whoever TCU ends up playing, Murray State, and Marshall. My are you crazy never going to happen but you heard it here first picks if it does happen are Georgia State over Cincinnati and College of Charleston over Auburn. I will post my bracket in a special 2.5 edition of Tyler's Takes on Wednesday night after the play in games. Thanks for reading!

[junker-town]

Bracketology 2019: Who will make a move during Friday’s loaded slate?

We’re two days away from Selection Sunday and with so many important games affecting the bracket from top to bottom, today’s projection focuses on what’s on the line this afternoon and evening.

While Thursday’s college basketball tournament schedule was bubble intensive from the afternoon deep into the night, Friday’s lineup highlights a wider variety of teams. With the ACC Tournament heading into its semifinal stage, spots on the No. 1 seed line are potentially up for grabs this evening, while the Pac-12 and Mountain West Tournaments could both have serious bubble impact. Potential bid thieves lurk in the Big 12 and Big East, while the conferences that will crown their champions on Sunday, including the Big Ten, SEC and American Athletic all feature a mix of games that could shake up both the protected seed and cut line landscapes.

After today’s full bracket, I’ll run through all of the key matchups for Friday. It’s an exhaustive, and potentially exhausting, list.

Note: Auto bid holders in this section are noted by the conference names in parentheses. Arrows indicate movement up or down seed lines relative to Thursday’s projection. New entrants are marked with an asterisk. Teams that have clinched bids are in all caps.

1. East (Washington, D.C.)

Columbia, South Carolina (Fri./Sun.)

1. Virginia (ACC) vs. 16. FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON (NEC)/NORTH DAKOTA STATE (Summit) 8. UCF vs. 9. Oklahoma

San José, California (Fri./Sun.)

↑5. Marquette vs. 12. New Mexico State (WAC) 4. Kansas State (Big 12) vs. 13. Old Dominion (C-USA)

Des Moines, Iowa (Thu./Sat.)

6. Auburn vs. 11. TCU 3. Michigan vs. 14. Harvard (Ivy)

Jacksonville, Florida (Thu./Sat.)

7. WOFFORD (SoCon) vs. 10. Syracuse 2. Tennessee vs. 15. COLGATE (Patriot)

4. West (Anaheim, California)

Salt Lake City, Utah (Thu./Sat.)

1. Gonzaga vs. 16. Prairie View (SWAC)/Norfolk State (MEAC) 8. Louisville vs. 9. Washington (Pac-12)

Hartford, Connecticut (Thu./Sat.)

5. Wisconsin vs. *12. Alabama/Belmont 4. Florida State vs. 13. LIBERTY (ASUN)

Hartford (Thu./Sat.)

6. Cincinnati vs. 11. Florida 3. Purdue vs. 14. NORTHEASTERN (CAA)

Tulsa, Oklahoma (Fri./Sun.)

7. Iowa State vs. 10. Minnesota 2. LSU (SEC) vs. 15. BRADLEY (MVC)

2. South (Louisville, Kentucky)

Columbus, Ohio (Fri./Sun.)

1. Kentucky vs. 16. IONA (MAAC) 8. Iowa vs. ↓9. Baylor

San José (Fri./Sun.)

5. Nevada (MW) vs. ↓12. St. John’s/Temple 4. Virginia Tech vs. 13. UC Irvine (Big West)

Des Moines (Thu./Sat.)

↓6. Maryland vs. 11. SAINT MARY’S (WCC) 3. Kansas vs. 14. Montana (Big Sky)

Jacksonville (Thu./Sat.)

7. VCU (A 10) vs. 10. Arizona State 2. Duke vs. 15. GARDNER-WEBB (Big South)

3. Midwest (Kansas City, Missouri)

Columbia (Fri./Sun.)

1. North Carolina vs. 16. Sam Houston State (Southland) ↑8. Seton Hall vs. 9. Utah State

Salt Lake City (Thu./Sat.)

5. Mississippi State vs. 12. MURRAY STATE (OVC) 4. Texas Tech vs. 13. Vermont (Am. East)

Tulsa (Fri./Sun.)

6. Villanova (Big East) vs. 11. Ohio State 3. Houston (American) vs. 14. Georgia State (Sun Belt)

Columbus, (Fri./Sun.)

7. Buffalo (MAC) vs. 10. Ole Miss 2. Michigan State (Big Ten) vs. 15. NORTHERN KENTUCKY (Horizon)

Last Four Byes: Arizona State, TCU, Florida, Ohio State Last Four IN: St. John’s, Temple, Alabama, Belmont First Four OUT: NC State, Indiana, Texas, Creighton, Lipscomb Next Four OUT: Oregon, UNC Greensboro, Clemson, Nebraska

For more on the Last Four In and First Four Out, check out today’s cut line breakdown.

Bids by Conference: 8 Big Ten, 8 SEC, 7 ACC, 7 Big 12, 4 American, 4 Big East, 2 Mountain West, 2 Ohio Valley, 2 Pac-12, 2 West Coast, 22 one-bid conferences

Early afternoon window

12 p.m., NBCSN: Rhode Island Rams vs. VCU Rams (Atlantic 10 quarterfinal)

With VCU being the Atlantic 10’s lone at-large prospect, bubble teams need the Rams to win all three of their potential games in Brooklyn.

12 p.m., ESPN: Florida Gators vs. LSU Tigers (SEC quarterfinal)

If Florida wins its rubber match with the Tigers, it should be safely in. LSU, meanwhile, is still playing for a potential No. 1 seed even with Will Wade suspended from coaching and Javonte Smart’s playing status questionable.

12 p.m., ESPN2: UConn Huskies vs. Houston Cougars (American quarterfinal)

The Cougars are likely looking at a No. 3 seed, but they need to win the American Tournament title to have any shot at a 2.

12:30 p.m., BTN: Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan State Spartans (Big Ten quarterfinal)

Another matchup of a bubble team looking to improve its status (Ohio State) and a No. 1 seed candidate (Michigan State).

Late afternoon window

2:30 p.m., ESPNU: Memphis Tigers vs. UCF Knights (American quarterfinal)

Fans of bubble teams need to keep an eye on Memphis, which is hosting the American Tournament this season. The Tigers defeated the Knights at home on January 27th, 77-57.

3 p.m., BTN: Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Wisconsin Badgers (Big Ten quarterfinal)

Wisconsin is in contention for a top-four seed, while Nebraska needs to keep winning to get back into the bubble conversation. The Cornhuskers will be aiming for their third win in as many days.

3:30 p.m., ESPN: Auburn Tigers vs. South Carolina Gamecocks (SEC quarterfinal)

South Carolina’s January 22nd home win over Auburn helped the Gamecocks earn a top four seed and quarterfinal bye. And they’ll need it since they don’t have the profile, particularly on the non-conference side of things, to contend for an at-large. This is yet another game in this window for bubble fans to worry about.

Early evening window

6:30 p.m., FS1: Xavier Musketeers vs. Villanova Wildcats (Big East semifinal)

Fourth-seeded Xavier is another squad lurking that could pop someone’s bubble by seizing an unexpected automatic bid.

6:30 p.m., CBSSN: Central Michigan Chippewas vs. Buffalo Bulls (MAC semifinal)

Keno Davis’ CMU squad will do its best to knock off Buffalo and ensure a two-bid MAC.

7 p.m., ESPN: Florida State Seminoles vs. Virginia Cavaliers (ACC semifinal)

Finally, a game without bubble implications. Florida State might be able to improve upon its current No. 4 seed by knocking off a Virginia team that’s in the driver’s seat for the No. 1 overall seed in the bracket.

7 p.m., ESPN2: Iowa State Cyclones vs. Kansas State Wildcats (Big 12 semifinal)

Kansas State is another team looking to improve upon its spot on the four line, while Iowa State would like to rise above the 7-8 range its fallen to of late.

7 p.m., ESPNU: SMU Mustangs vs. Cincinnati Bearcats (American quarterfinal)

Cincinnati will aim to eliminate another potential surprise auto bid challenger.

7 p.m., BTN: Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Purdue Boilermakers (Big Ten quarterfinal)

Minnesota can further solidify its bid by defeating Purdue for the first time in a little less than two weeks.

7 p.m., SEC Network: Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Kentucky Wildcats (SEC quarterfinal)

Alabama can lock up a bid by knocking off Kentucky, but given how the Wildcats have dominated the SEC Tournament, that’s a tall order. John Calipari’s team is also aiming to shore up its No. 1 seed credentials.

Late evening window

9 p.m., Pac-12 Network: Colorado Buffaloes vs. Washington Huskies (Pac-12 semifinal)

If Colorado defeats Washington, the Pac-12 is likely to earn two bids, if not three.

9 p.m., CBSSN: San Diego State Aztecs vs. Nevada Wolf Pack (Mountain West semifinal)

Just one year ago, San Diego State knocked Nevada out at this very stage. Plus, the Aztecs defeated the Wolf Pack in San Diego this season.

9 p.m., FS1: Seton Hall Pirates vs. Marquette Golden Eagles (Big East semifinal)

Seton Hall defeated Marquette in Newark on March 6th, part of a recent three-game winning streak that has the Pirates rising up the bracket.

9:30 p.m., ESPN: Duke Blue Devils vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (ACC semifinal)

While North Carolina swept the regular-season series, you’re likely aware that Zion Williamson didn’t really feature in either one of those games. Duke can stake its own claim for a No. 1 seed by knocking off the Tar Heels with him back in the lineup this evening.

9:30 p.m., ESPN2: West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Kansas Jayhawks (Big 12 semifinal)

Sure, West Virginia has a losing record and finished last in the Big 12, but the Mountaineers are now just two wins away from securing the conference’s automatic bid.

9:30 p.m., ESPNU: Wichita State Shockers vs. Temple Owls (American quarterfinal)

Temple could use another quality win or two for its at-large case, but the Owls must beat Wichita State tonight to get a shot at earning them.

9:30 p.m., BTN: Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Michigan Wolverines (Big Ten quarterfinal)

Iowa defeated Michigan in Iowa City back on February 1st, 74-59. The Hawkeyes’ seeding could use another Quad 1 win, while the Wolverines are playing for a spot on the No. 2 line.

9:30 p.m., SEC Network: Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Tennessee Volunteers (SEC quarterfinal)

It’s another rare Friday game with no bubble implications. However, Tennessee is very much in the hunt for one of the four No. 1 seeds.

Late night window

11:30 p.m., ESPN: Oregon Ducks vs. Arizona State Sun Devils (Pac-12 semifinals)

While Arizona State is looking increasingly safe, Oregon might just need a Pac-12 Tournament title to reach the field. The pair split their regular-season series with both winning at home.

11:30 p.m., CBSSN: Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Utah State Aggies (Mountain West semifinal)

On Thursday night, the New Mexico Lobos pushed Utah State in the quarterfinals. Tonight, the Aggies’ at-large bid could be on the line against a Fresno State squad they split with in the regular season.

Once again, I’ll be back with updates throughout Friday as events warrant.

[junker-town]

Bracketology 2019: Bubble trouble lurks as conference tournaments reach full swing

Nearly every remaining conference tournament will have stories to tell before the real field of 68 is announced.

With 2018-19’s regular season in the history books, it’s all elimination basketball from now until someone cuts the nets down in Minneapolis on Monday, April 8th. This morning’s bracket is largely unchanged from Sunday’s version, though I did shuffle some teams around (as noted on the seed list). Most notably, I switched the positions of the LSU Tigers and Tennessee Volunteers on the No. 2 seed line. I also added the Atlantic Sun champion Liberty Flames and Big South-winning Gardner-Webb Bulldogs to the field, which led to a few adjustments from lines 12 down.

Before things start to pick up tomorrow, I wanted to take the opportunity today to look at the biggest seeding and selection storylines to monitor over the next seven days and nights. But first, here’s today’s full bracket.

Note: Auto bid holders in this section are noted by the conference names in parentheses. Arrows indicate movement up or down seed lines relative to Sunday’s projection. New entrants are marked with an asterisk. Teams that have clinched bids are in all caps.

1. East (Washington, D.C.)

Columbia, South Carolina (Fri./Sun.)

1. Virginia (ACC) vs. 16. St. Francis (Pa.) (NEC)/Norfolk State (MEAC) 8. UCF vs. 9. Utah State

San José, California (Fri./Sun.)

5. Maryland vs. ↑12. New Mexico State (WAC) 4. Kansas State (Big 12) vs. 13. Hofstra (CAA)

Hartford, Connecticut (Thu./Sat.)

6. Marquette vs. ↑11. Texas 3. Purdue vs. 14. Old Dominion (C-USA)

Tulsa, Oklahoma (Fri./Sun.)

↓7. Iowa State vs. 10. Minnesota 2. LSU (SEC) vs. ↑15. BRADLEY (MVC)

4. Midwest (Kansas City, Missouri)

Columbia (Fri./Sun.)

1. North Carolina vs. *16. GARDNER-WEBB (Big South) ↑8. Baylor vs. ↑9. Seton Hall

Salt Lake City, Utah (Thu./Sat.)

5. Mississippi State vs. 12. Temple/Indiana 4. Texas Tech vs. 13. UC Irvine (Big West)

Tulsa (Fri./Sun.)

↑6. Auburn vs. 11. TCU 3. Houston (American) vs. 14. Georgia State (Sun Belt)

Columbus, Ohio (Fri./Sun.)

7. Buffalo (MAC) vs. 10. Arizona State 2. Michigan State (Big Ten) vs. 15. Omaha (Summit)

2. West (Anaheim, California)

Salt Lake City (Thu./Sat.)

1. Gonzaga (WCC) vs. 16. Iona (MAAC)/Prairie View (SWAC) 8. Louisville vs. 9. Washington (Pac-12)

Hartford (Thu./Sat.)

5. Wisconsin vs. 12. MURRAY STATE (OVC) 4. Florida State vs. *13. LIBERTY (ASUN)

Des Moines, Iowa (Thu./Sat.)

6. Villanova (Big East) vs. 11. Florida 3. Kansas vs. ↑14. Montana (Big Sky)

Jacksonville, Florida (Thu./Sat.)

7. Wofford (SoCon) vs. 10. Syracuse ↑2. Tennessee vs. 15. Colgate (Patriot)

3. South (Louisville, Kentucky)

Columbus (Fri./Sun.)

1. Kentucky vs. 16. Sam Houston State (Southland) 8. Oklahoma vs. ↓9. Iowa

San José (Fri./Sun.)

5. Nevada (MW) vs. ↓12. Ohio State/Clemson 4. Virginia Tech vs. 13. Vermont (Am. East)

Des Moines (Thu./Sat.)

6. Cincinnati vs. 11. St. John’s 3. Michigan vs. 14. Harvard (Ivy)

Jacksonville (Thu./Sat.)

7. VCU (A 10) vs. ↓10. Ole Miss 2. Duke vs. 15. Wright State (Horizon)

Last Four Byes: St. John’s, TCU, Florida, Texas Last Four IN: Temple, Indiana, Ohio State, Clemson First Four OUT: Belmont, NC State, Lipscomb, Creighton Next Four OUT: Oregon, Alabama, UNCG, Furman

New Today: Gardner-Webb, Liberty Leaving Today: Lipscomb, Radford

Bids by Conference: 9 Big Ten, 8 ACC, 8 Big 12, 7 SEC, 4 American, 4 Big East, 2 Mountain West, 2 Pac-12, 24 one-bid conferences

Bubble trouble lurks

With mid-major conferences taking center stage on the Monday and Tuesday nights of Championship Week, it’s typically quiet on the bubble front, as only the WCC Tournament usually worries those teams competing for the final few spots in the field. And with the Gonzaga Bulldogs not only a tournament lock, but a likely No. 1 seed, that applies again this year. But 2019’s event in Vegas has a couple of wrinkles that make it a little more intriguing. For starters, the WCC bracket returned to a ladder format, meaning both the Bulldogs and second-seeded Saint Mary’s Gaels enter the fray tonight at the semifinal stage (9 p.m. ET, ESPN and 11:30 p.m., ESPN2) — after having last played on Saturday, March 2nd. Then, thanks to the BYU Cougars’ “no play on Sunday” rule, the tournament took yesterday off. That means Saturday’s quarterfinal winners, the eighth-seeded Pepperdine Waves and seventh-seeded San Diego Toreros, got a day off before taking the floor again tonight.

Yes, two teams that started the WCC Tournament in Thursday’s first round will be looking for their fourth consecutive wins in the event. And if that happens bubble teams everywhere will be panicking because that means an at-large bid is about to vanish. (No. 1 seed contenders, on the other hand, would be rejoicing over Gonzaga’s misfortune.)

The more serious threat to the at-large pool comes earlier in the evening, as the Southern Conference’s top seed, the Wofford Terriers, takes on the second-seeded UNC Greensboro Spartans in that league’s title game (7 p.m., ESPN). If the Terriers win and complete a 21-0 SoCon campaign, an at-large spot is preserved. But if the Spartans pull the upset, someone’s bubble will pop.

And the drama will only continue as the week goes on.

The Buffalo Bulls, currently a seven seed in this projection, open MAC Tournament play on Thursday at 12 p.m. Eastern (ESPN+ ($)) with the Toledo Rockets and Bowling Green Falcons their main threats for the title in Cleveland.

The Atlantic 10, consistently a multi-bid league in recent seasons, has only one at-large threat, the top-seeded VCU Rams. If Mike Rhoades’ squad falls at any point between Friday’s quarterfinals and Sunday’s title game, an at-large bid will vanish.

The Nevada Wolf Pack have long been an NCAA lock, despite a lack of Quad 1 wins. And with their win over the Pack in Logan last Saturday, the Utah State Aggies also put themselves in prime position for a bid. Bubble teams will have to hope for the two to meet in Saturday night’s final in Las Vegas, though an early loss for the Aggies could see them find late trouble.

Of course, a surprising Cinderella run in one of the multi-bid league tournaments could throw a further wrench into the picture. Let’s take a quick look at the most intriguing storylines in each.

Big East Tournament

With four of the conference’s 10 teams finishing at 9-9, four others at either 8-10 or 7-11 and the Villanova Wildcats and Marquette Golden Eagles having fallen back to the pack over the final two weeks of the season, this is the power conference most likely to produce a surprise winner. Making matters worse, the favorites’ respective slides mean they’re going to have to win out at Madison Square Garden to have a real shot at a protected seed, most likely on the four line.

Pac-12 Tournament

While both the regular-season champion Washington Huskies and second-seeded Arizona State Sun Devils are present in today’s projection, a slip-up in Las Vegas, particularly early on, could put them in a world of hurt. And like the Big East, the Pac-12 also has a bunched-up middle class. Just three games separated the third-seeded Utah Utes with the trio of teams that finished eighth in the standings. The worst case scenario for the bubble? A surprise team winning the final on Saturday night over either the Huskies or Sun Devils, with the eliminated favorite having been competitive in the semifinals.

American Athletic Tournament

While the Houston Cougars are playing for a possible No. 2 seed and the Cincinnati Bearcats and UCF Knights are both NCAA locks at this point, the third-seeded Temple Owls will probably need to win at least a game to secure their spot. Complicating the picture, the Memphis Tigers — currently on the bubble’s fringe — host the tournament. Only Cincinnati was able to defeat Penny Hardaway’s team on its home floor during conference play. But there’s a caveat — Houston didn’t travel to the Mid-South during the regular season. But the Cougars and Tigers could meet in Saturday’s semifinals.

ACC Tournament

Once you get past Tuesday’s opening round that features six teams that finished under .500, things will be popping in Charlotte. First up, the league’s bubble teams will take the floor on Wednesday with the Clemson Tigers and NC State Wolfpack playing a virtual elimination game in the afternoon session and the Syracuse Orange and Louisville Cardinals both looking to avoid the dreaded late bad loss that night. The top four seeds then hit the floor for the first time in Thursday’s quarterfinals, with the Virginia Cavaliers, North Carolina Tar Heels and Duke Blue Devils all very much alive in the race for No. 1 NCAA seeds and the Florida State Seminoles (and fifth-seeded Virginia Tech Hokies, for that matter) trying to jump above the four line. Friday night’s second semifinal could be the third UNC-Duke game of the season — but quite possibly the first to fully involve Zion Williamson.

SEC Tournament

Travel a few hours west of Charlotte and the picture is similar in Nashville, but with a twist — the SEC’s No. 4 seed, the South Carolina Gamecocks, aren’t a real at-large threat, as they’re 15-15 in Division I games thanks to some woeful non-conference performances. Again, early action will feature bubble teams, with the Florida Gators taking on the Arkansas Razorbacks on Thursday afternoon in a game Mike White’s squad cannot afford to lose after a three-game skid to end the regular season. In the evening session, the Alabama Crimson Tide, currently projected on the outside looking in, could improve their stock by topping the Ole Miss Rebels. Quarterfinal Friday will feature the Gamecocks and the league’s three No. 1 seed contenders, the champion LSU Tigers, Kentucky Wildcats and Tennessee Volunteers.

Big Ten Tournament

While both the Michigan State Spartans and Michigan Wolverines have featured in the race for No. 1 seeds throughout the season, it might take others stumbling for them to return to the top line at this point. (The Big Ten title game’s pre-Selection Show finish further complicates matters.) So, both are jockeying with the Purdue Boilermakers for spots on the two line. Plus, a spot on the NCAA Tournament’s four line could be on the line when the fourth-seeded Wisconsin Badgers and fifth-seeded Maryland Terrapins meet in Friday’s second quarterfinal. Then there’s the bubble, with both the Minnesota Golden Gophers and Iowa Hawkeyes needing wins in Thursday’s second round to feel safe and the Ohio State Buckeyes and Indiana Hoosiers meeting in yet another possible NCAA elimination game to start that day’s quadruple-header.

Big 12 Tournament

For starters, the Oklahoma Sooners and TCU Horned Frogs both must play in Wednesday’s opening round, with the potential of a loss being the most harmful to the Frogs’ chances. Then on Wednesday, the most intriguing quarterfinal is the nightcap, as the Texas Longhorns will face a serious challenge as they attempt to avoid the 16th loss that would knock them to .500 and likely eliminate them from NCAA consideration. What does Shaka Smart’s team have to do to avoid such a fate? Merely beat the Kansas Jayhawks on their de facto alternate home floor, Kansas City’s Sprint Center. Easy peasy. The Jayhawks currently feature on the No. 3 seed line nationally, while the conference’s co-champs, the Kansas State Wildcats and Texas Tech Red Raiders, are on line four. The highest finisher of the trio in K.C. is likely to end up as a three, with a chance for a No. 2 seed.

Tomorrow, I’ll be back to talk about the cases for and against the teams closest to the cut line.

[junker-town]

Ranking all 121 bowl-banned teams in college football history

There have been way more NCAA-banned FBS teams than we thought. Here’s how they stack up across history.

The postseason ban is one of the NCAA’s favorite instruments of justice. In recent years, football programs at USC, Miami, Ohio State, Ole Miss, Missouri, and others have faced them.

Some bowl bans hurt more than others. The pain might depend on how good the banned team is. Does the ban cost you a New Mexico Bowl appearance, a Playoff shot, or none of the above? To that end, let’s rank every bowl-banned team in the history of college football, or at least all those we can confirm got NCAA bans.

How we made this list

We used the NCAA’s major infractions database and searched for FBS-equivalent schools that faced postseason penalties for cases relating to football since the mid-1950s, when the NCAA got the power to sanction schools. The database is messy — some cases show up that involved basketball teams getting bans in cases that also involved football, for instance — but all NCAA bowl bans should be there.

We’re not including teams that couldn’t go to bowls because of restrictive conference rules or decisions. We’re talking about FBS teams that got banned by the NCAA, not specific conferences. These are programs that caught federal charges, so to speak, not just local ones.

These teams are loosely ranked by a mixture of their S&P+ points margins and their final records, with the worst banned teams up top. If you find an NCAA-banned team we’ve omitted somewhere, let us know.

Ranking the banned teams, starting with the ones that came nowhere near a bowl anyway

1981 Oregon State (1-10, -21.6 points vs. average team) 1988 Cincinnati (3-8, -19.7) 1991 Oklahoma State (0-10-1, -8.1)

The ‘81 Beavers were banned by the Pac-10, technically, but we’re making an exception off the bat and including them here, because they were so bad it would feel wrong not to tell you about them. They beat what turned out to be a nearly .500 Fresno State team in Week 1, then lost their last 10 games. At some point, the NCAA officially adopted the Pac-10’s ban.

The ‘88 Bearcats used two FCS wins to make themselves appear less putrid than S&P+ says they were. They lost to Rutgers by 29. They had more wins than other teams on this list, sure, but given whom those wins came against and how much the computers hated this team, it’s fair to call Dave Currey’s squad the worst banned team ever.

Yet it’s also appropriate to put Oklahoma State here by virtue of winning zero games.

The next-most terrible

1984 Wichita State (2-9, -18.2) 1962 Colorado (2-8, -14.8) 1989 Memphis (2-9, -13.5) 1980 Colorado (1-10, -12.1)

The only remaining bowl-banned squads who would’ve been double-digit underdogs against average teams, per their S&P+ ratings.

Bad teams that should’ve cheated better

1959 NC State (1-9, -2.3) 1986 TCU (3-8, -11.7) 1971 Tulsa (4-7, -9.9) 1991 Minnesota (2-9, -8.3) 1979 Kansas State (3-8, -7.8) 1960 Indiana (1-8, -7.3) 1963 Colorado (2-8, -7.2) 1989 Oklahoma State (4-7, -7) 1978 Oklahoma State (3-8, 0.9) 1964 SMU (1-9, -6.8) 1954 Arizona State (5-5, -6.7) 1976 Long Beach State (8-3, -6.6) 1974 Long Beach State (-6.4, 6-5) 1968 Illinois (1-9, -6.3) 1963 Wichita State (3-8, -6.3) 1978 Kansas State (4-7, -6.1) 1982 Oregon (2-8-1, -1.7) 2004 Mississippi State (3-8, -5.2) 1972 Kansas State (3-8, -5.2) 1958 NC State (2-7-1, -4.9) 1962 New Mexico State (4-6, -4.8) 1967 Illinois (4-6, -4.8) 1990 Oklahoma State (4-7, -3.4) 1956 NC State (3-7, -3) 1976 Michigan State (4-6-1, -2.3) 1975 SMU (4-7, -1.1) 1972 Cal (3-8, -0.6) 1968 South Carolina (4-6, 2.1) 1960 Oklahoma (3-6-1, 0.1) 1972 Kansas (4-7, 0.3) 1963 New Mexico State (3-6-1, 2.5)

Sure, some of the NCAA sanctions, especially in the 1950s and 1960s, were for relatively ticky tack stuff, but if you’re going to cheat, you should expect a better ROI than these teams. Not bad enough to be truly notable.

Just regular ol’ garden variety bad, with the exception of 1976 Long Beach State, a team that had a nice record, but played an atrocious schedule.

Indiana faced a four-year postseason ban across most of its sports, but newspaper clippings from the time indicate (in true NCAA fashion) the school didn’t know how broadly it applied. The Big Ten at least banned it in turn from the ‘60 Rose Bowl, and if nothing else, IU self-imposed a ban for the next three years by being bad. At least 1960’s ban was a direct result of NCAA sanctioning, so we’ve counted it here.

Two teams with crummy records that the advanced stats thought were actually pretty good

2003 Alabama (4-9, 10.4) 1983 USC (4-6-1, 12.1)

The ‘03 Bama and ‘83 USC teams look weird here, given their S&P+ margins. Maybe they had tons of unrealized potential and just couldn’t close out games due to bowl-ban despair. We’ll never know, nor would we have if either had won more than four games, because they weren’t allowed to play in the postseason.

Lousy Ole Miss teams whom advanced stats sometimes liked because they played in good conferences

1987 Ole Miss (3-8, -7) 1988 Ole Miss (5-6, -0.3) 1995 Ole Miss (6-5, -2.5) 1996 Ole Miss (5-6, -8.1) 2017 Ole Miss (6-6, 11.6) 2018 Ole Miss (5-7, 9.8)

Through consistent reps, the Rebels have learned how to bowl-ban properly. You don’t want to waste too good a season, but you don’t want to be a laughingstock.

Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

Extremely unmemorable .500-ish outfits

1956 Cincinnati (4-5, -9.2) 1979 Memphis (5-6, -8.6) 1984 Kansas (5-6, -4.6) 1967 South Carolina (5-5, -4.2) 1964 Kentucky (5-5, -0.1) 1986 SMU (6-5, 1.5) 1997 Texas Tech (6-5, 1) 1980 Auburn (5-6, 3.2) 1977 Houston (6-5, 3.3) 1971 Kansas State (5-6, 4.7) 1970 Kansas State (6-5, 5.4) 1966 Texas A&M (4-5-1, 2.8) 1965 SMU (4-5-1, 3)

When the cops want people to forget about you, teams from the general lower right quadrant of the country know how to be forgotten.

Pretty good teams that could’ve gotten more of their money’s worth, but still fared decently post-cheating

1970 Tulsa (6-4, -1.7) 1979 Oklahoma State (7-4, 2) 1975 Long Beach State (9-2, 2.1) 1995 Alabama (8-3, 5) 1983 Southern Miss (7-4, 5.8) 1984 Arizona (7-4, 6.4) 1977 Michigan State (7-3-1, 6.4) 1984 Illinois (7-4, 6.6) 1989 Oklahoma (7-4, 6.8) 1983 Arizona (7-3-1, 6.9) 1974 SMU (6-4, 0.6) 2002 Kentucky (7-5, 0.8) 1988 Texas A&M (7-5, 7.6) 1994 Washington (7-4, 7.7) 1975 Mississippi State (6-4-1, 7.7) 2002 Cal (7-5, 7.9) 1995 Miami (8-3, 8.1) 2012 Miami (7-5, 8.2) 1957 Florida (6-2-1, 8.9) 1956 Auburn (7-3, 9.1) 1959 USC (8-2, 9.2) 1979 Auburn (8-3, 9.2) 1993 Washington (7-4, 9.7) 1982 Southern Miss (7-4, 10.3) 1955 Miami (6-3, 12) 1959 Auburn (7-3, 12.4) 1960 Kansas (7-2-1, 12.5) 1978 Michigan State (8-3, 13) 2012 North Carolina (8-4, 14.1) 1967 Houston (7-3, 14.7) 2010 USC (8-5, 15.2)

Ideally, when you get hammered by the NCAA, you’d like to have built such a strong program that you can withstand the blow and still contend seriously. These teams did not display overwhelming promise, but they were solid. Props to 1959 USC for nearly winning the proto-Pac-12.

When the NCAA attempted to punish actual crime by handing out a bowl ban, before backtracking

2012 Penn State (8-4, 14.1) 2013 Penn State (7-5, 8.9)

The NCAA initially banned Penn State from the postseason for four years. Under legal pressure, the NCAA ended the ban halfway through.

Teams that missed out on pretty good bowl games

1957 NC State (7-1-2, 9) 1983 Clemson (9-1-1, 10.4) 1982 Clemson (9-1-1, 11.3) 1959 Wyoming (9-1, 10.7) 1990 Houston (10-1, 11.2) 1994 Texas A&M (10-0-1, 11.7) 1976 Mississippi State (9-2, 12.5) 1966 Houston (8-2, 15.4) 1985 Florida (9-1-1, 15.8) 1990 Florida (9-2, 16.6) 1984 Florida (9-1-1, 19.2) 2002 Alabama (10-3, 16.6) 1977 Kentucky (10-1, 16.6) 1981 Arizona State (9-2, 17.1) 1981 Miami (9-2, 17.6) 1981 SMU (10-1) 1989 Houston (9-2, 18.4) 1968 Houston (6-2-2, 18.5) 1982 USC (8-3, 18.9) 2011 USC (10-2, 24.7) 1959 Arizona State (10-1, 0.8) 1960 Auburn (8-2, 12.6) 1994 Auburn (9-1-1, 13) 1958 Auburn (9-0-1, 11.2)

Some of these teams were pretty close to national title claims. Auburn would’ve come close to champ status in 1958 if LSU hadn’t gone 11-0. Clemson was perfect in 1981, precluding SMU. A&M would’ve been on the doorstep in 1994 if Nebraska hadn’t gone 13-0. Wyoming wasn’t in a powerful enough conference and lost to a blah Air Force team.

But something like the Peach Bowl or the Fiesta Bowl? Sure! We could have had 1981 SMU in the Cotton Bowl against a top-five Alabama, or 2011 USC in the Sugar Bowl instead of either Brady Hoke’s Michigan or an underwhelming Virginia Tech.

The ‘57 NC State team won the ACC but was banned because the NCAA decided to punish the whole athletic department for basketball infractions. The Wolfpack missed out on what would have still, today, been their only Orange Bowl berth. The bid instead went to Duke, the second-place team, which got walloped by Oklahoma. That sticks out as a sad bowl ban.

Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images

Plausibly could’ve been the national champ if the BCS hadn’t existed

2012 Ohio State (12-0, 23.8)

First, let’s remember that the Buckeyes were banned because they weirdly decided they couldn’t pass up a trip to the 2011 season’s Gator Bowl, where they lost to Will Muschamp. They were just coming out of the tattoos/memorabilia episode that got Jim Tressel fired.

The Buckeyes were only ninth in 2012 S&P+, and they didn’t beat a team ranked higher than 16th in the final BCS standings (though the Big Ten Championship, from which they were also banned, would’ve added a game against a ranked Nebraska). If the they had been eligible, they most likely would’ve finished where they did in the final AP Poll: third.

Of course, the team that played Alabama in the BCS title game actually did not play Alabama in that title game, according to the NCAA’s record-keeping. Via Notre Dame’s vacating of wins, maybe we can pretend Ohio State did make the title game.

Good enough to have a national championship argument

1993 Auburn (11-0, 13.6)

AU doesn’t officially claim the title this year, but via recognized champ FSU going 12-1, the Tigers were one of three teams the National Championship Foundation also called the champ, along with Nebraska and Notre Dame.

A legit national champ, despite being banned

1957 Auburn (10-0, 15.1)

Auburn won an AP title for the best of its exceptional nine bowl-banned seasons. Ohio State has a claim on this year, but Auburn’s the truest champ.

The two best bowl-banned teams ever, including 1974’s national champ

1973 Oklahoma (10-0-1, 27.6) 1974 Oklahoma (11-0, 27.8)

Sports Reference’s Simple Rating System considers the 1973 Sooners the best-ever team that wasn’t assembled by World War II’s unique roster situation. S&P+ says the ‘73 Sooners are much better than any other bowl-banned team ever, save for themselves the next year. OU had the country’s most legit title claim in ‘74 ... despite finishing its season in November.

There’s little question these were the two most dominant banned teams ever.

And in case you were wondering, here’s the top of our Most Bowl-Banned Seasons Leaderboard:

Nine seasons: Auburn

Six: SMU, Ole Miss, Houston

Five: Oklahoma State, USC, Kansas State

[junker-town]

Bracketology 2019: Gonzaga the biggest winner of NCAA tournament’s top 16 preview

The top 16 of today’s projection matches what college basketball’s real bracket builders offered up on Saturday. That means Gonzaga replaces Michigan on the top line.

On Saturday afternoon, 2019’s version of the NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Committee revealed its current top 16 with five weeks left until the real field of 68 is announced. Naturally, those of us in the bracketology industry were most interested in how the Committee would use its new evaluation tool — the NET (which stands for NCAA Evaluation Tool, not “new evaluation tool” — while seeding teams. And based on Saturday’s offering, the Committee looks like it’s using NET much like the RPI in the past. And that’s something to keep in mind based on how accurately the past two bracket sneak previews pegged the top 16 teams in the 2017 and 2018 fields. In other words, the NET should be a good, but not perfect, indicator of a team’s seed.

The NET won’t be a perfect match, since the Committee appears to still be using two of its other favorite metrics in its deliberations. Just 14 of the top 16 teams in Saturday morning’s NET found themselves on the Committee’s top 16 list. The two exceptions were the 10th-ranked Virginia Tech Hokies and 16th-ranked Texas Tech Red Raiders. And why were those teams left out? It looks like a combination of poor non-conference scheduling and an inability to make up for that failing by picking up top 25-type wins in league play caught up with both the Hokies and Red Raiders. This conclusion looks particularly reasonable when you note that the two teams ranked outside of the NET 16 that ended up in Committee’s list were the Kansas Jayhawks, owner of the nation’s top non-conference schedule, and Marquette Golden Eagles, 98th in non-league scheduling but with three top 30 wins heading into the weekend (now four, as they defeated the Villanova Wildcatss on Saturday).

And with that in mind, the top 16 of today’s projection matches the Committee’s selections exactly, and I attempted to apply their logic to the remainder of the bracket. Basically, I stuck close to the NET when appropriate, making adjustments based on contenders’ quality win totals and strength of schedule ranks. This became increasingly necessary as I went down the list, particularly with struggling squads like Nebraska Cornhuskers (13-11) and Florida Gators (12-11) ranked 40th and 41st in the NET on Monday. That’s still in at-large range if going strictly by the numbers, but when you dig into those squads actual results, both fall short.

As usual, we start by looking at the left side of the traditional bracket (East and West), followed by the right (South and Midwest).

Note: Auto bid holders in this section are noted by the conference names in parentheses. Arrows indicate movement up or down the seed list. New entrants are marked with an asterisk.

(1) East (Washington, D.C.)

Columbia, South Carolina (Fri./Sun.)

(1) Duke Blue Devils (ACC) vs. (*16) UT Arlington Mavericks (Sun Belt) (8) Buffalo Bulls vs. (↓9) Oklahoma Sooners

Jacksonville, Florida (Thu./Sat.)

(↑5) LSU Tigers vs. (*12) Clemson Tigers/Butler Bulldogs (↑4) Iowa State Cyclones vs. (*13) Yale Bulldogs (Ivy)

Hartford, Connecticut (Thu./Sat.)

(↑6) Florida State Seminoles vs. (↓11) Minnesota Golden Gophers (3) Marquette Golden Eagles vs. (↓14) Radford Highlanders (Big South)

Des Moines, Iowa (Thu./Sat.)

(↑7) Cincinnati Bearcats vs. (10) TCU Horned Frogs (↓2) Michigan Wolverines (Big Ten) vs. (15) Montana Grizzlies (Big Sky)

(4) West (Anaheim, California)

Salt Lake City, Utah (Thu./Sat.)

(↑1) Gonzaga Bulldogs (WCC) vs. (16) Prairie View A&M Panthers (SWAC)/Norfolk State Spartans (MEAC) (↑8) Ohio State Buckeyes vs. (9) Ole Miss Rebels

Hartford (Thu./Sat.)

(↓5) Villanova Wildcats (Big East) vs. (*12) Belmont Bruins (OVC) (4) Louisville Cardinals vs. (↓13) Hofstra Pride (CAA)

Tulsa, Oklahoma (Fri./Sun.)

(6) Iowa Hawkeyes vs. (11) NC State Wolfpack/VCU Rams (↓3) Kansas Jayhawks vs. (*14) Loyola Chicago Ramblers (MVC)

Des Moines (Thu./Sat.)

(↑7) Washington Huskies (Pac-12) vs. (↓10) Alabama Crimson Tide (2) Michigan State Spartans vs. (↓15) UC Irvine Anteaters (Big West)

(2) South (Louisville, Kentucky)

Columbia (Fri./Sun.)

(1) Tennessee Volunteers (SEC) vs. (16) Sam Houston State Bearkats (Southland) (↓8) Syracuse Orange vs. (9) Lipscomb Bisons (ASUN)

San José, California (Fri./Sun.)

(↓5) Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. (12) Davidson Wildcats (A 10) (↑4) Nevada Wolf Pack (MW) vs. (*13) Vermont Catamounts (America East)

Tulsa (Fri./Sun.)

(↓6) Virginia Tech Hokies vs. (11) Seton Hall Pirates (3) Purdue Boilermakers vs. (↓14) Bowling Green Falcons (MAC)

Jacksonville (Thu./Sat.)

(↓7) Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. (↑10) Texas Longhorns (↑2) North Carolina Tar Heels vs. (15) Bucknell Bison (Patriot)

(3) Midwest (Kansas City, Missouri)

Columbus, Ohio (Fri./Sun.)

(1) Virginia Cavaliers vs. (*16) St. Francis (Pa.) Red Flash (NEC)/Monmouth Hawks (MAAC) (↑8) Auburn Tigers vs. (↑9) Wofford Terriers (SoCon)

San José (Fri./Sun.)

(5) Kansas State Wildcats (Big 12) vs. (↑12) New Mexico State Aggies (WAC) (4) Wisconsin Badgers vs. (↓13) Old Dominion Monarchs (C-USA)

Salt Lake City (Thu./Sat.)

(↓6) Maryland Terrapins vs. (↓11) Arizona State Sun Devils (3) Houston Cougars (American) vs. (↑14) South Dakota State Jackrabbits (Summit)

Columbus (Fri./Sun.)

(7) Baylor Bears vs. (↓10) St. John’s Red Storm (2) Kentucky Wildcats vs. (↑15) Northern Kentucky Norse (Horizon)

Notes on today’s projection:

With Virginia and Kentucky ahead of Michigan and Michigan State on the seed list and Columbus the closest first weekend site for both, there are no Big Ten teams assigned to Ohio State’s arena. So, the Wolverines and Spartans end up in Des Moines, while Purdue and Kansas anchor Tulsa’s two pods.

Projected second round matchups that are particularly attractive include Iowa State-LSU and Marquette-Florida State in the East; Nevada-Texas Tech and a Charleston Classic final rematch between Purdue and Virginia Tech in the South (provided Justin Robinson returns for the Hokies); all four in the Midwest, with Kentucky-Baylor specifically standing out; and the Big East reunion between Louisville and Villanova, Kansas-Iowa and Michigan State-Washington out West. That final matchup is particularly intriguing when you consider that Syracuse knocked the Spartans out last year and former Orange assistant Mike Hopkins naturally runs a similar system in Seattle.

Finally, the Selection Committee’s top 16 didn’t give us any super-sexy regional final matchups like the Duke-Kentucky East final I’d been projecting over the past couple of weeks, but there’s still plenty of quality in the pairings they gave us. Saturday’s order of play is a toss-up with Tennessee-North Carolina in the South and Gonzaga-Michigan State in the West. As for Sunday, the Midwest’s Virginia-Kentucky would likely be the lead-in to Duke-Michigan in the East.

Rundown

Full seed list

Last Four Byes: Texas, Minnesota, Seton Hall, Arizona State Last Four IN: NC State, VCU, Clemson, Butler First Four OUT: UCF, Temple, Indiana, Utah State Next Four Out: Arkansas, Oregon, South Florida, Florida

New Today: Belmont, Butler, Clemson, Loyola Chicago, Monmouth, St. Francis (Pa.), UT Arlington, Yale Leaving Today: Georgia State, Illinois State, Indiana, Jacksonville State, Princeton, Rider, Robert Morris, Temple

Bids by Conference: 9 ACC, 8 Big 12, 8 Big Ten, 7 SEC, 5 Big East, 2 American, 2 Atlantic 10, 2 MAC, 2 Pac-12, 23 one-bid conferences

Yes, Arizona State is back after they dropped out of Friday’s bubble update thanks to an awful Thursday loss to Washington State. Naturally, given the topsy-turvy nature of both the Sun Devils’ and Pac-12’s seasons, they then handed Washington its first conference loss of the season. Clemson, victorious over fading Virginia Tech, and Butler, a winner at Georgetown in a major Big East bubble showdown, join the field, replacing Temple and Indiana. The Owls were blown out at Tulsa, 76-58, on Saturday, while the Hoosiers have now beaten only Michigan State in their last 10 games after a Sunday home loss to Ohio State.

Gonzaga’s elevation to the top line over both Kentucky and Michigan paired with 23-1 Nevada’s placement as a No. 4 seed despite a lack of Group 1 wins (the Wolf Pack are 8-0 in Group 2 games with 10 top 100 victories overall) makes me slightly optimistic about the fate of mid-majors this season. And this translates to higher-than-expected seeds for a quartet of conference leaders — eighth-seeded Buffalo (MAC), a pair of nines in Wofford (Southern) and Lipscomb (Atlantic Sun) and 12th-seeded Belmont (Ohio Valley). Wofford and Belmont are both seeing boosts because of the strength at the top of their respective conferences (even if the bottom halves of both leagues are extremely weak), while Buffalo is helped by general consistency across the MAC’s NET rankings. As for Lipscomb, a top 40 non-conference schedule, highlighted by a win at TCU, is doing the bulk of the work. However, Belmont’s profile in turn receives a boost by its sweep of the Bisons in the pair’s annual home-and-home series.

With so much mediocrity present from coast-to-coast this season, it might be a good time for the Committee to think outside of the power conference box when filling out the field. We’ll just have to see if the pleasant surprises of Gonzaga and Nevada’s positions in the top 16 will result in any unexpected selections on March 17th.

My next update, in the form of yet another look at the bubble, will arrive on Friday. And there’s no telling how many more twists and turns the season will take over those three days.

[junker-town]

Bracketology 2019: College basketball has variety in the championship chase

Even though Duke tops the first bracket of the new year, a trio of teams without the Blue Devils’ stock of NCAA crowns — Michigan, Tennessee and Virginia — join them on the top seed line. And they’re not the only fresh faces in contention for a national title.

Now that the Clemson Tigers have obliterated the Alabama Crimson Tide — another college football season is done. And while football’s 2018 campaign concluded with many fans wondering whether we’ll ever see someone, anyone different competing for a national title, things are just a little different as college basketball enters 2019.

Sure, the Duke Blue Devils hold today’s No. 1 overall seed and fellow blue bloods Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan State and North Carolina sit among the protected top four seed lines in this first real projection of the season. (Let’s just pretend November’s preseason bracket never happened. I know I have!) But of the 11 other teams ranked among the top four seed lines, just two — Michigan (1989) and Ohio State (1960) — have won an NCAA Tournament title. And further four — Iowa State, Tennessee, Texas Tech and Virginia Tech — have never even reached the Promised Land of the Final Four. In other words, there’s a decent chance that at least one new team joins the ranks of the elite this April in Minneapolis.

So without further delay, here’s how the bracket looks after the conclusion of the majority of non-conference play (other than the SEC/Big 12 Challenge and a few stray contests here and there). The left side of the bracket (the East and West regions) will meet in one semifinal with the right side (South and Midwest) paired in the other.

(1) East (Washington, D.C.)

Columbia, S.C. (Fri./Sun.)

(1) Duke Blue Devils vs. (16) Robert Morris Colonials (NEC)/Norfolk State Spartans (MEAC) (8) Villanova Wildcats (Big East) vs. (9) Maryland Terrapins

San Jose, Calif. (Fri./Sun.)

(5) Indiana Hoosiers vs. (12) Hofstra Pride (CAA) (4) Iowa State Cyclones vs. (13) NJIT Highlanders (ASUN)

Tulsa, Okla. (Fri./Sun.)

(6) N.C. State Wolfpack vs. (11) LSU Tigers/VCU Rams (3) Houston Cougars (American) vs. (14) UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (Big West)

Des Moines, Iowa (Thu./Sat.)

(7) Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. (10) TCU Horned Frogs (2) Kentucky Wildcats vs. (15) George Mason Patriots (Atlantic 10)

(4) West (Anaheim, Calif.)

Hartford, Conn. (Thu./Sat.)

(1) Virginia Cavaliers vs. (16) Texas Southern Tigers (SWAC)/Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (Southland) (8) Iowa Hawkeyes vs. (9) Arizona State Sun Devils

San Jose, Calif. (Fri./Sun.)

(5) Marquette Golden Eagles vs. (12) Fresno State Bulldogs (Mountain West) (4) Ohio State Buckeyes vs. (13) Stony Brook Seawolves (America East)

Tulsa, Okla. (Fri./Sun.)

(6) Nevada Wolf Pack vs. (11) San Francisco Dons (WCC) (3) Oklahoma Sooners vs. (14) Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners (WAC)

Salt Lake City, Utah (Thu./Sat.)

(7) Louisville Cardinals vs. (10) Arizona Wildcats (Pac-12) (2) Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. (15) Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons (Summit)

(2) South (Louisville, Ky.)

Columbus, Ohio (Fri./Sun.)

(1) Michigan Wolverines (Big Ten) vs. (16) Northern Colorado Bears (Big Sky) (8) St. John’s Red Storm vs. (9) Nebraska Cornhuskers

Hartford, Conn. (Thu./Sat.)

(5) Buffalo Bulls (MAC) vs. (12) Wofford Terriers (Southern) (4) Virginia Tech Hokies (ACC) vs. (13) Georgia State Panthers (Sun Belt)

Jacksonville, Fla. (Thu./Sat.)

(6) Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. (11) Kansas State Wildcats/Syracuse Orange (3) Florida State Seminoles vs. (14) Lehigh Mountain Hawks (Patriot)

Des Moines, Iowa (Thu./Sat.)

(7) Auburn Tigers vs. (10) Creighton Bluejays (2) Kansas Jayhawks vs. (15) Green Bay Phoenix (Horizon)

(3) Midwest (Kansas City, Mo.)

Columbia, S.C. (Fri./Sun.)

(1) Tennessee Volunteers (SEC) vs. (16) Rider Broncs (MAAC) (8) Purdue Boilermakers vs. (9) Cincinnati Bearcats

Salt Lake City, Utah (Thu./Sat.)

(5) Wisconsin Badgers vs. (12) Murray State Racers (OVC) (4) Texas Tech Red Raiders (Big 12) vs. (13) Loyola Chicago Ramblers (MVC)

Jacksonville, Fla. (Thu./Sat.)

(6) Seton Hall Pirates vs. (11) North Texas Mean Green (C-USA) (3) North Carolina Tar Heels vs. (14) Winthrop Eagles (Big South)

Columbus, Ohio (Fri./Sun.)

(7) Texas Longhorns vs. (10) Alabama Crimson Tide (2) Michigan State Spartans vs. (15) Princeton Tigers (Ivy)

Some notes on team placement and matchups:

Remember the days when there was more separation between teams from the same conference across the bracket, not just among those on the top four seed lines? With the Selection Committee focusing more on geography than bracket balance in recent seasons, clustering is something to watch out for. And with so few Western teams in this field, that’s apparent in this projection. Notice that I’ve placed both teams from each of the Mountain West, Pac-12 and West Coast conferences all in the West region. With only Gonzaga among the top 16 in this projection, this type of bracketing a real possibility come March 17th. Note that the Bulldogs and Saint Mary’s both featured in the West bracket just two seasons ago.

Of the 10 Big Ten entrants, eight of them find themselves slotted for the top half of a regional bracket (as a 1, 4, 5, 8 or 9 as opposed to a 2, 3, 6, 7, 10 or 11). As a result that’s led to a traffic jam here with a trio of potential all-Big Ten regional semifinals and a single potential all-conference second round matchup.

The bottom half of the Midwest region could feature a rematch of the Las Vegas Invitational championship game between Texas and Michigan State in round two.

Villanova-Maryland in round one with the winner almost assuredly facing Duke on second round Sunday? Yes, please.

Similarly, the other Columbia pod, features Tennessee, Purdue and Cincinnati squads that really seem like they should play a little more frequently, thanks to geography.

The East Region’s at-large First Four matchup is a spicy one, with VCU taking on LSU, coached by former Rams boss Will Wade. Similarly, Stony Brook coach Jeff Boals would face former employer Ohio State in the West first round, though I think that meeting might be just a bit friendlier.

If the top two seeds in each region held serve all the way through to the Elite Eight, you might want to clear your calendar for March 30th and 31st now. Saturday’s doubleheader would see Virginia meeting Gonzaga in Anaheim, likely followed by Michigan and Kansas in Louisville. Then, Sunday would open with Tennessee and Michigan State in Kansas City with Duke and Kentucky meeting for the final spot in the Nation’s Capital.

Rundown

Last Four Byes: Arizona State, Alabama, Creighton, TCU Last Four IN: LSU, VCU, Kansas State, Syracuse First Four OUT: Butler Bulldogs, Ole Miss Rebels, UCF Knights, Saint Louis Billikens Next Four Out: Florida Gators, Clemson Tigers, Temple Owls, Missouri Tigers Also Considered: Washington Huskies, Vanderbilt Commodores, Arkansas Razorbacks, Lipscomb Bisons, Utah State Aggies, Liberty Flames, Furman Paladins, Northwestern Wildcats, Dayton Flyers

Full seed list

New Today (multi-bid conferences only): Arizona, Fresno State, Houston, Iowa, Louisville, LSU, Minnesota, Oklahoma, San Francisco, Seton Hall, St. John’s, VCU Leaving Today: Butler, BYU, Clemson, Florida, Miami (Fla.), Oregon, Saint Louis, South Carolina, UCF, UCLA, Washington, West Virginia

Bids by Conference: 10 Big Ten, 8 ACC, 7 Big 12, 6 SEC, 5 Big East, 2 American, 2 Atlantic 10, 2 Mountain West. 2 Pac-12, 2 West Coast, 22 one-bid conferences

January’s first projection features a fair amount of turnover when compared to preseason, with 28 new entrants this time, with 15 of those new representatives coming from likely single-bid conferences. For the moment, the Pac-12 does not rank among the one-bid leagues. I’ll discuss that possibility in more detail in my next post on Friday, where I’ll look at how non-league play set the possible multi-bid conferences up for March. As you might be able to guess based on the totals above, the Big Ten is set up for an impressive turnaround from 2018’s four-bid effort, while the SEC has some work to do to live up to some lofty preseason hype.

[junker-town]

Bracketology 2018: Bubble teams continue to trip over themselves

Louisville was one of many teams that simply couldn’t pick up a key win over the past three nights. Therefore, the Cardinals remain on the wrong side of this projection, alongside UCLA, Utah and Nebraska.

On the final Friday of the 2017-18 regular season, I’m not going to dwell too much on the top of the bracket, which saw only limited changes since Tuesday. The biggest is the return of the Arizona Wildcats to the protected seed group, thanks to the returns of Sean Miller, defiant in his denial of wrongdoing in the FBI’s probe of college basketball, and Allonzo Trier, back from his PED suspension after an appeal, and a needed Thursday win over Stanford. That drops the Gonzaga Bulldogs down to seed line five.

The Wichita State Shockers also moved up, to line three from line four, even if they needed overtime at UCF to pick up their seventh consecutive win. Gregg Marshall’s team hosts the Cincinnati Bearcats on Sunday (12 p.m. Eastern, CBS) needing a win to claim a share of the American Athletic Conference regular season title — in the Shockers’ first season in the conference. The Texas Tech Red Raiders, losers of four straight, make the corresponding move down to seed line 4.

Note: Quality win data (the ratio in parentheses, see Jan. 26 post for more info) and RPI information are courtesy WarrenNolan.com and accurate as of the morning of March 2, 2018 and only reflect games against Division I opponents.

Today’s three line required serious juggling to get the four regions relatively balanced. Still, a difference of five points between the strongest region, the South, and the weakest, the West, pushes the Committee’s preferred limit.

This weekend should have serious implications for the No. 1 seed race, as a pair of current two seeds, the North Carolina Tar Heels and Duke Blue Devils, meet in Durham (Saturday 8:15 p.m., ESPN), while the Michigan State Spartans probably need to win the Big Ten Tournament title (Sunday 4 p.m., CBS) to have any hope of jumping to the top. The current top four all play winnable games, though the Xavier Musketeers and Kansas Jayhawks both have to hit the road, with the Big 12 champs visiting an Oklahoma State team (Saturday 4 p.m., ESPN) that already defeated them in Lawrence.

Other Games to Watch

All times Eastern.

Wisconsin vs. (2) Michigan State (Big Ten Quarterfinal), Friday 12 p.m. (BTN) (fringe) Penn State vs. (4) Ohio State, (Big Ten Quarterfinal), Friday 6:30 p.m. (BTN) Rutgers vs. (2) Purdue (Big Ten Quarterfinal), Friday approx. 9 p.m. (BTN) (4) West Virginia at (11) Texas, Saturday 12 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Xavier at DePaul, Saturday 12 p.m. (Fox) Big Ten Semifinals, Saturday 2 and approx. 4:30 p.m. (CBS) South Carolina at (3) Auburn, Saturday 3:30 p.m. (SEC Network) (6) TCU at (4) Texas Tech, Saturday 4 p.m. (ESPN2) (bubble) Notre Dame at (1) Virginia, Saturday 4 p.m. (ACC Network/ESPN3) Georgetown at (1) Villanova, Saturday 5 p.m. (Fox) (fringe) Georgia at (3) Tennessee, Saturday 6 p.m. (SEC Network) California at (4) Arizona, Saturday 6:30 p.m. (Pac-12 Networks)

One week ago, only 21 teams were able to claim lock status. Now, that number has grown to 26, mostly because time — and the opportunities for bad losses that come with its passage — is running out. Keep an eye on the four teams on seed line five, as they all have the potential to jump into the top 16 with strong conference tournament performances. The same cannot be said for the Rhode Island Rams, who somehow lost to the Saint Joseph’s Hawks on Tuesday night ... by 30 ... at home. The Rams next face a dangerous Davidson squad in North Carolina this evening (8 p.m., CBSSN) with another loss likely to further damage their seed.

Other Games to Watch

(5) Michigan vs. (bubble) Nebraska (Big Ten Quarterfinal), Friday approx. 2:30 p.m. (BTN) (5) Kentucky at (6) Florida, Saturday 12 p.m. (CBS) (7) Virginia Tech at (6) Miami, Saturday 12 p.m. (ESPN2) (11) Alabama at (6) Texas A&M, Saturday 2 p.m. (ESPN2) (5) Clemson at (bubble) Syracuse, Saturday 2 p.m. (ACC Network/ESPN3) Loyola Marymount/Portland vs. (5) Gonzaga (WCC Quarterfinal), Saturday 10 p.m. (ESPN2) (7) Nevada at San Diego State, Saturday 10 p.m. (CBSSN) UConn at (7) Houston, Sunday 4 p.m. (CBSSN)

With 27 of the 28 teams above and the 23 champions of likely one-bid conferences (a total that includes the Nevada Wolf Pack) accounted for, just 18 places in the NCAA Tournament remain in play with a little more than a week to go before Selection Sunday.

If you look at the TV lineup below, you’ll notice that the majority of teams in the group above will have the opportunity to distinguish themselves from their peers over the next couple of days. And that could have benefits for the winners, both in terms of conference and NCAA tournament seeding.

In a week where plenty of bubble teams took losses, the Conference USA champion Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders completed a season sweep of the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers on Thursday night. And that 82-64 victory in Murfreesboro just might have put Kermit Davis’ squad in position to claim a bid even if things go haywire in Frisco, Texas next week.

Games to Watch

Iowa State at (9) Oklahoma, Friday 9 p.m. (ESPN2) (11) Baylor at (10) Kansas State, Saturday 2 p.m. (ESPN) (fringe) Boston College at (9) Florida State, Saturday 2 p.m. (ACC Network/ESPN3) (8) Creighton at (11) Marquette, Saturday 2:30 p.m. (Fox) Stanford at (9) Arizona State, Saturday 2:30 p.m. (Pac-12 Networks) (bubble) Louisville at (11) N.C. State, Saturday 6 p.m. (ESPN) (8) Arkansas at (8) Missouri, Saturday 6 p.m. (ESPN2) Marshall at (10) Middle Tennessee, Saturday 7 p.m. (Stadium) (9) Butler at (8) Seton Hall, Saturday 8 p.m. (CBSSN) UCLA at (10) USC, Saturday 10:15 p.m. (ESPN)

Of the 16 teams immediately surrounding the cut line, six took losses over the last three nights, while a further six were idle. On the good side of the line, the N.C. State Wolfpack picked up their third Group 3 loss of the season on Thursday night, falling at Georgia Tech. Meanwhile, the Alabama Crimson Tide lost for the fourth consecutive time — with a difficult trip to Texas A&M on deck for Saturday.

However, the week’s biggest loser was the Wolfpack’s Saturday opponent, the Louisville Cardinals. David Padgett’s squad would have entered today’s projected field with a win over the Virginia Cavaliers last night. But the visitors of Charlottesville broke Cardinal hearts in just about the cruelest way possible.

As a result, the idle Marquette Golden Eagles rejoin the field ... for now. Here’s a closer look at the Golden Eagles and the rest of the teams immediately surrounding the cut line.

Last four in

Avoiding Dayton: 40. Providence, 41. N.C. State, 42. St. Bonaventure, 43. Alabama

44. Saint Mary’s Gaels

(27-4, 16-2 WCC); RPI: 36; KenPom: 23; “Super Average”: 35.2; SOS: 163

The Gaels, thought safe by many, might just want to go ahead and win three games in Las Vegas and claim the WCC Tournament championship and the auto bid that goes with it. If Saint Mary’s fails to do so, it might be a nervous wait, as the Gaels own just a single Group 1 victory and 3-2 mark against Groups 1 and 2. That’s not optimal when dealing with a Selection Committee that has made the importance of quality wins clear.

Next game: vs. Santa Clara/Pepperdine (WCC Quarterfinal), Sunday approx. 12:30 a.m. (ESPN2)

45. Baylor Bears

(17-12, 8-9 Big 12); RPI: 55; KenPom: 29; “Super Average”: 40; SOS: 19

The Bears earned themselves a bit of breathing room by pummeling Oklahoma on Tuesday night. However, a win at Kansas State, who won the pair’s earlier meeting in Waco, might just push Scott Drew’s team out of the First Four places come Sunday morning’s update. Baylor could really use a second road Group 1 win to go along with a February 12th victory at Texas.

Next game: at Kansas State, Saturday 2 p.m. (ESPN)

46. Texas Longhorns

(17-13, 7-10 Big 12); RPI: 59; KenPom: 43; “Super Average”: 43; SOS: 20

A Longhorn win at Kansas on Monday night wasn’t expected. Honestly, a home victory over West Virginia on Saturday shouldn’t be anticipated either, but Texas needs one badly to hang on, even with five Group 1 wins on its profile. Shaka Smart’s squad can’t keep on counting on other bubble teams to bail it out with ill-timed losses. Plus, I’m not sure picking up only seven Big 12 wins is going to do it this season, even with the strength of the conference.

Next game: West Virginia, Saturday 12 p.m. (ESPN)

47. Marquette Golden Eagles

(17-12, 8-9 Big East); RPI: 64; KenPom: 49; “Super Average”: 49; SOS: 28

With a win over Creighton on Saturday, the Golden Eagles will have swept two teams ahead of them in the pecking order. (Seton Hall is the other.) However, Marquette will need help to avoid an opening round game in the Big East Tournament. And the potential of a second loss to either St. John’s or DePaul isn’t something Golden Eagle fans want to consider at this point.

Next game: Creighton, Saturday 2:30 p.m. (Fox)

First four out

69. Louisville Cardinals

(19-11, 9-8 ACC); RPI: 41; KenPom: 34; “Super Average”: 34; SOS: 22

Had the Cardinals defeated Virginia last night, they’d have four Group 1 wins, matching Baylor and Marquette above, with that single victory over the Cavaliers being more valuable than anything the Bears or Golden Eagles have to offer. But they didn’t, so now Louisville likely needs to win in Raleigh on Saturday and do some damage in the ACC Tournament next week to find itself on the right side of the bubble.

Next game: at N.C. State, Saturday 6 p.m. (ESPN)

70. UCLA Bruins

(19-10, 10-7 Pac-12); RPI: 56; KenPom: 53; “Super Average”: 54; SOS: 58

The Bruins, swept by Utah and Colorado a week ago, hit the floor again on Saturday night aiming to do the same to USC — a result that would end the Trojans’ hopes of claiming a share of the Pac-12 title. More importantly for UCLA, however, is the fact a win at the Galen Center would be a vital third Group 1 win. Still, Steve Alford’s squad might need a run to the Pac-12 Tournament final to have a real shot. And a Saturday victory will help the Bruins in their quest to secure a bye to the quarterfinals.

Next game: at USC, Saturday 10:15 p.m. (ESPN)

71. Utah Utes

(18-10, 10-7 Pac-12); RPI: 57; KenPom: 62; “Super Average”: 61; SOS: 60

Unfortunately for the Utes, currently 2-6 against Group 1, Saturday’s home finale against a Colorado team that’s 75th in the RPI won’t help them improve that mark. That means Utah, which like UCLA needs to win to ensure it has a shot at a Pac-12 tourney bye, is likely to remain in this group on Sunday. A fascinating week in Vegas awaits.

Next game: Colorado, Saturday 7 p.m. (Pac-12 Networks)

72. Nebraska Cornhuskers

(22-9, 13-5 Big Ten); RPI: 54; KenPom: 50; “Super Average”: 51; SOS: 97

My Tuesday Q&A over at Corn Nation goes through the Huskers’ case in more detail. In summary, Nebraska has a clear path to the field of 68, starting today against Michigan. Win that game and a potential semifinal against Michigan State on Saturday and things will look quite a bit rosier in Lincoln.

Next game: vs. Michigan (Big Ten Quarterfinals), Friday approx. 2:30 p.m. (BTN)

Next Four Out: 73. Washington, 74. Syracuse, 75. Notre Dame, 76. Western Kentucky

At this time last week, I asked if any bubble team really wanted to play in this year’s NCAAs. For the teams in the table above, now labeled “fringe” squads, the answer was almost a unanimous “No.” While Colorado was idle, Oklahoma State and Boston College both picked up wins that kept them on life support, and Penn State took out Northwestern in the Big Ten Tournament last night, every other team in the table above, seven of the 11 listed, lost.

Other Games to Watch

St. John’s at (10) Providence, Saturday 12 p.m. (FSN) (fringe) Mississippi State at (fringe) LSU, Saturday 1 p.m. (SEC Network) (fringe) Oregon at (bubble) Washington, Saturday 4:30 p.m. (Pac-12 Networks) Wyoming at (fringe) Boise State, Saturday 7 p.m. (AT&T Sportsnet Rocky Mtn./MWN) (bubble) Western Kentucky at UAB, Saturday 8 p.m. (Fox College Sports) (fringe) Temple at Tulsa, Sunday 3 p.m. (ESPN3) Tulane at (fringe) UCF, Sunday 4:30 p.m. (ESPNU)

With so many bubble teams falling over the past few nights, the likelihood that a select number of the teams above could earn an at-large if they lose in their respective conference tournaments over the next week-plus has jumped. So I’ve added Loyola of Chicago and New Mexico State back to the grouping that only included Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders one week ago. Unfortunately, teams like Buffalo, Louisiana and Vermont are still “auto bid or bust,” due to their lack of even a single Group 1 victory. While the Ramblers can avoid an anxious wait by taking the Arch Madness title on Sunday afternoon, the rest of the teams mentioned in this paragraph take the floor for tournament play next week.

Games to Watch

Loyola of Chicago in the MVC Tournament: Quarterfinal, Friday 1 p.m. (ESPN3); Semifinal, Saturday 3:30 p.m. (CBSSN); Championship, Sunday 2 p.m. (CBS)

My next bracket update will come on Sunday and we’ll go daily for the final week before the real thing arrives on March 11th.

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